MPNblog.com | Missouri Political News

Purgason encourages conservatives to sign Contract with Missouri

2010-02-09T16:52:00.000-06:00

Republican Senate candidate Chuck Purgason wants candidates to support a contract with Missouri that includes conservative principles.

"I truly believe that we must have leaders willing to stand up to the special interests in Washington and begin working for the long term viability of our nation," Purgason said in a press release. "They must show leadership and tell the truth about the problems we are facing as a nation. This is my commitment to the people of the State of Missouri."

The Contract's seven pillars include the following:

1. Balanced Budget
2. No Earmarks
3. No member of my family will be a lobbyist
4. No TARP or other so-called Stimulus Package programs
5. No Campaign Funds from Bailed Out Companies
6. I will have no fundraisers outside the State of Missouri
7. Self-Imposed Term Limit of Two Terms

Purgason is challenging Congressman Roy Blunt and businessmen Robert Praprotnik and Mark Memoly for the Republican nomination for Missouri's open U.S. Senate seat. The winner of the Aug. 3rd primary will likely face current Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan.

Related Links:
Purgason Campaign Website

AGO Collection rates down in workers comp fraud cases, dollars collected up

2010-02-09T06:20:00.039-06:00

FACT CHECK

Claim: In mid-Jan. Attorney General Chris Koster's (D) office announced a "dramatic increase in workers' comp fraud collections in 2009."

"This office takes seriously its obligations to our state's business community, and individuals who steal from our workers' compensation system undermine a sound business climate," Koster said in a press release.

The presentation of the claim was somewhat surprising since Koster's predecessor, Jay Nixon (D), currently resides in the Governor's Mansion. The claims of massive increases in fines suggest there are corresponding increases in convictions and collections, and that Koster's team is more effectively combating fraud than Nixon did during his tenure.

Facts: While Koster's press release presents true information, according to official reports from the Attorney General's Office, it provides the information in a slightly misleading presentation.

It's true that the number of referrals increased by 30 cases, the number of convictions jumped by 12 cases, levied fines and penalties increased by $377,000 and that total collections increased by $187,900. But Koster's press release makes no indication that conviction rates decreased marginally, from 21.3 percent to 20.8 percent. The rate here is more important than the raw number because it normalizes the data across years.

The glaring omission from Koster's press release, however, is that collection rates for levied fines took a steep fall, from 85 percent in 2008 to just 69 percent in 2009. This is the figure that tells us out of total fines levied, how much was actually paid. Based on state data, that trend is not looking so rosy.

Koster claimed the increase in cases could be attributed to staff realignments. Perhaps Koster's team will also choose to focus on increasing collection rates in the future since it's one thing to win a conviction, and another to ensure proper enforcement of ordered fees and restitution.

Related Links:
AGO Press Release

Federal government shuts down due to blizzard in D.C.

2010-02-08T20:08:00.000-06:00

The federal Office of Personnel Management announced this evening that the federal government in Washington D.C. will be shut down again Tuesday due to blizzard conditions that struck over the weekend. Some areas in D.C. received more than 24 inches of snow in a one day period.

Federal employees in D.C. were dismissed early last Friday and ordered not to report on Monday or Tuesday.

OPM estimates that each day the government is shut down, the cost of lost productivity is approximately $100 million. Using that estimate, so far the most recent blizzard in the northeast cost taxpayers $250 million.

According to the National Weather Service, the region is expecting another 10 to 20 inches of snow on Tues. and Wed., which means more days of closures may come later this week.

MoDOT obligates federal stimulus funds ahead of schedule

2010-02-08T11:51:00.000-06:00

The Missouri Dept. of Transportation (MoDOT) reported today that it has obligated the full $524.6 million received from the federal stimulus package.

The obligations are important because a provision in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act stipulates that states that fail to obligate funds from certain programs by next month would have that money pulled by federal agencies and redistributed to states able to obligate their money. The provision was intended to ensure expeditious spending, to meet the goals of the stimulus package.

"From launching the nation's first transportation stimulus project to obligating all of our recovery act funds ahead of schedule, MoDOT has worked rapidly to show that transportation projects do play an integral role in supporting jobs and rebuilding our nation's economy," MoDOT Director Pete Rahn said in a press release. "While these funds don't come close to covering all of our transportation needs, they have helped fill a short-term gap as other federal and state resources continue to decline."

MoDOT has 187 projects slated for completion in coming years and estimates those projects will support 12,500 direct, indirect, and induced jobs.

MoDOT's press release also notes that bids for all planned projects came in $24 million under estimates, enabling an additional 53 recovery act projects.

To date Missouri has spent $2.05 billion of the $2.42 billion in stimulus funding received from the federal government. In the final quarter of 2009, recipients estimated 16,022 jobs were created from stimulus funds in Missouri.

Related Links:
MoDOT Recovery Website
Missouri Stimulus Website
Recovery.gov, Federal Stimulus Website

House District 2: McClanahan rakes in $62,000 for election to date, likely challenger emerges

2010-02-08T08:11:00.003-06:00

Second-term Rep. Rebecca McClanahan (D) raised nearly $62,000 to date for her re-election campaign, $11,700 of which came in during the final quarter of 2009.

District 2, which includes Kirksville and other parts of Adair County, was long held by Republicans until McClanahan narrowly defeated Nancy Summers in 2006 by a 1.4 point margin.

And so far this election cycle, McClanahan and Democrats have shown they aren't willing to lose this seat, especially without a costly fight. Even with McClanahan's substantial fundraising to date, MPN rates this district as a "lean Democrat" given the historical propensity for voters to swing between parties.

The fundraising momentum will be important as the first of potentially several Republican challengers announced his intention to run against McClanahan. Twenty-five year old political novice Zach Wyatt (R), a Novinger native, announced his intention to challenge McClanahan and is currently garnering support through Facebook, an online social media forum. Wyatt has not yet formed a political committee with the Missouri Ethics Commission and will not be able to raise funds for a campaign until doing so.

McClanahan (D) Campaign Finance Report
McClanahan's fourth quarter fundraising fell far below the first quarter of 2009, but still brought in $11,705 during the three month period. Of total receipts during the period, 63 percent ($7,415) came from businesses and individuals, averaging $75 per contribution, and 36 percent ($4,225) came from other political committees.

For the entire election cycle, McClanahan raised $61,955, half of which came from political committees, mostly during the first quarter of 2009, and the other half from individuals and businesses. 44 percent of McClanahan's total contributions came from individuals inside Missouri.

McClanahan's committee also reported $48,483 in disbursements including $3,446 in contributions to other candidates and committees. Contributions over the last quarter include $100 to Lifeline Pregnancy Resource Center in Kirksville and $250 to the American Heart Association. Contributions from previous quarters were made to the Friends of the NRA, Kirskville Band Boosters, and Putnam County Relay for Life.

At the end of the period McClanahan's committee reported $48,167 cash-on-hand and $1,000 in debt.

State government doled out $144 million in tax credits to date for 2009

2010-02-07T07:50:00.002-06:00

Even as state revenues are declining, Missouri government doled out $144 million in tax credits in 2009.

The tax credits are applied for based on statutorily authorized programs, ranging from subsidies for wine and grape producers to film production support.

Historical Perspective on Tax Credits
In nominal terms, tax credit expenses increased from 2001 to 2006 by more than $200 million. From 2006 to present, the trend has declined sharply.

The downward trend is due in part to a general decline in economic activity in 2008 and 2009, but may also be due to the fact potential recipients of 2009 tax credits have not yet filed appropriate paperwork to claim their credit. In other words, the 2009 data should be interpreted with extreme caution. Even given this caveat, it's clear businesses are claiming fewer tax credits in light of the recession.

Tax Credit Uses
More than half of the tax credit expenses for 2009 were accounted for by housing projects related to low income or affordable housing. Collectively these tax credits accounted for $75.2 million, or 52 percent of all tax credits claimed to date.

The next largest categories were for redevelopment (e.g., Brownfields) and job retention training. These programs accounted for $29.6 million (21%) and $20.6 million (14%), respectively.

See Summary table for 2009 Tax Credits by Category Here.

Tax Credits by Legislative Districts
The distribution of tax credits is also unequal across the state, even when considering by legislative district. In MPN's analysis, businesses from 60 House districts received no tax credits in 2009. On the senate side, just one district received no credits in 2009.

Tax Credits by Senate District
The greatest value of tax credits in any single district was in Senate District 5, represented by State Sen. Robin Wright-Jones (D). Businesses in that St. Louis district received 81 tax credits valued at $26.9 million. The majority of these tax credits were for housing developments or brownfield redevelopment activities.

Business in State Sen. David Pearce's (R) district, District 31 which includes portions of Cass and Johnson counties, claimed no tax credits in 2009 to date.

Districts held by Democrats received an average of $6.9 million in tax credits whereas districts held by Republicans received an average of $2.7 million.

See Summary Table for 2009 Tax Credits by Senate District Here.

Tax Credits by House District
St. Louis City received the most in tax credits, House District 63 in particular, represented by Tishaura Jones. So far for 2009, businesses in the district received 49 tax credits valued at $24 million.

See Summary Table for 2009 Tax Credits by House District Here.

Related Links:
Missouri Map Your Taxes Tax Credit Website

Missouri State Government Expenditures in 2009

2010-02-06T08:31:00.002-06:00

Below is a quick overview of Missouri's state expenditures for 2009, using publicly available data from MapYourTaxes.

The majority of the state's expenses are tied up in social programs, including the Dept. of Social Services, Mental Health, and Health and Senior Services. These three agencies accounted for 44 percent of 2009 expenditures.

The next largest expenditures are the two education departments, which accounted for 34 percent of the state's 2009 expenses.

In particular note that many programs we spend a substantial amount of the time discussing receive relatively little funding. For instance, collectively the three environmentally-related agencies account for just 2 percent of the state budget, much of which is actually offset with fees and federal grant funding.

Nixon appointed by President Obama to National Governors Council

2010-02-05T15:24:00.000-06:00

Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon (D) was picked this week to serve on a new Council of Governors, created this year in an Executive Order signed by President Barack Obama.

The bipartisan council, made up of 10 governors appointed to 2 year terms, will coordinate defense and security issues between state governments and Federal agencies, specifically issues related to various national guard units.

"Close cooperation and communication between the federal government and the states are vital if we are to make the most effective use of state resources on matters of national defense and homeland security," Nixon said in a press release. "Having personally seen the accomplishments of the Missouri National Guard both here in Missouri and in Afghanistan, my focus on this Council will be to ensure that we continue to use our Citizen-Soldiers and Airmen to the best effect possible on these fronts."

According to the White House, the Council will be co-chaired by Vermont Gov. Jim Douglas (R) and Washington Gov. Chris Gregoire (D). Other members of the Council will include Arizona Gov. Janice Brewer, Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuño, Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry, Virginia Gov. Robert McDonnell, Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, North Carolina Gov. Beverly Eaves Perdue, and South Dakota Gov. Michael Rounds.

Related Links:
White House EO Announcement
White House Executive Order: Establishment of the Council of Governors (PDF)

Skelton Weekly Column: A More Responsible Approach to Energy Legislation

2010-02-05T13:39:00.000-06:00

From Congressman Ike Skelton (D):

Last week, I introduced H.R. 4572, a bipartisan bill that would prohibit the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) from regulating greenhouse gas emissions under the authority of the Clean Air Act. I submitted this legislation to the U.S. House of Representatives because, simply put, we cannot tolerate turning over the regulation of something as important as the American energy system to unelected bureaucrats.

In 2007, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Massachusetts v. EPA that the EPA had authority under the Clean Air Act to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. Since that time, EPA has been putting in place a framework to do just that.

I, like many residents of the Fourth Congressional District, do not agree with the Supreme Court. Congress never explicitly granted EPA the authority to regulate greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide, under the Clean Air Act. Instead, that law was meant to eliminate lead in the air and to reduce smog.

Urgent Congressional action is needed to assert leadership and make clear that EPA does not have authority to regulate these sorts of gases. That is why I, along with Congressman Collin C. Peterson, the Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, and Republican Congresswoman Jo Ann Emerson, a fellow Missourian, have submitted H.R. 4572 to the House of Representatives for consideration. If Congress does not act, unelected bureaucrats may soon be setting policies harmful to rural Americans.

This legislation sends a clear message that many of us in Congress are just plain concerned about what EPA is trying to do under the authority of the Clean Air Act and are ready to do something about it. And, agricultural and utility groups from the Fourth District, such as the Missouri Rural Electric Cooperatives, the Missouri Municipal Utilities, the Missouri Corn Growers, and the Missouri Soybean Association, agree.

I am very hopeful that H.R. 4572 will become law or will be included in any sort of responsible energy bill drafted this year. In my view, enacting common sense, bipartisan energy legislation, like the bill I have introduced, will help build consensus among the American people and Congress on energy and environmental reforms and allow for the United States to reduce greenhouse gas emissions over time.

Related Links:
U.S. Rep. Ike Skelton's Official Website

House District 121: Cole outraises incumbent for second consecutive quarter

2010-02-05T06:29:00.000-06:00

The race between incumbent state Rep. Denny Hoskins (R) and challenger Courtney Cole (D) is beginning to take shape, evidenced through recent campaign finance report filings.

Over the last quarter Cole raised $2.55 for every dollar received by Hoskins, a sign that Cole's campaign has picked up momentum since it's launch last August. In fact, this is the second consecutive quarter Cole outraised her opponent.

Hoskins, however, doesn't seem to be taking the race all that seriously yet and has not begun raising substantial funds from sources other than political committees.

MPN's House race ratings at the of 2009 labeled this district a toss-up, noting in part Cole's performance to date and also the fact that Hoskins won in 2008 by less than a percentage point.

On Cole's performance, just take for instance the significant following she developed on the social media platform Facebook -- more than 564 fans. On top of that, Cole has amassed a Twitter following that is currently greater than that of statewide Republican Auditor candidate Tom Schweich.

Compare Cole's use of social media to Hoskins who has just 225 followers on Facebook and a larger Twitter following, but with an account that has restricted access.

Hoskins (R) Fundraising
So far this election cycle, Hoskins reported raising $19,613 with $2,000 in outstanding debt. More than half of Hoskins' receipts to date came from political committees, a total of $11,190.

In the fourth quarter alone, Hoskins reported only 10 contributions, at an average of about $300 each. Four of those contributions were from political committees, two from Ameristar, and four from individuals.

We noticed just one anomaly in the reports for Hoskins: while Hoskins reported $2,000 in debt at the end of 2009, there was an additional $874 in loans reported in the third quarter, not indicated repaid in subsequent reports.

At the end of 2009, Hoskins reported $16,003 cash-on-hand.

Cole (D) Fundraising

Cole raised about $4,000 more than Hoskins to-date and has relied substantially less on political committees. 32 percent of Cole's fundraising comes from political committees and the remaining 68 percent is from businesses and individuals. Compared to Hoskins, Cole raised about $10,000 more from individuals and businesses to date, suggestive of strong grassroots support.

In the most recent quarter Cole reported $7,370 in receipts from 101 itemized contributions, the average from non-political committees was about $55.

At the end of the period Cole reported $18,182 cash-on-hand with no debt.

Sinquefield tops $1 million in contributions so far this election cycle

2010-02-04T04:46:00.000-06:00

St. Louis billionaire and Show Me Institute Founder Rex Sinquefield has shown in the past his willingness to dump personal fortune into Missouri political races.

So far this election cycle, according to data obtained by MPNblog.com from the Missouri Ethics Commission, Sinquefield and his wife have collectively contributed $1.1 million.

The largest contribution came late last month -- $500,000 to Let Voters Decide, a committee formed to support ballot initiatives seeking to amend earning taxes across the state.

Other major receipients include ethics reform legislation sponsor Steve Tilley ($100,000), Tim Jones ($40,000), the Democratic Campaign Committee of St. Louis ($35,000), and the Missouri Republican Party ($30,000).

A full list of recipients of Sinquefield's funds to date this election cycle is below:

MECID	COMMITTEE NAME	DATE	AMOUNT
C010201	SLAY FOR MAYOR	2/25/2009	$25,000
C001002	DEMOCRATIC CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE OF ST LOUIS CITY	3/20/2009	$35,000
C010265	CHRISMER FOR GOOD GOVERNMENT	3/24/2009	$20,000
C031160	FRIENDS OF TILLEY	2/6/2009	$100,000
C010201	SLAY FOR MAYOR	2/25/2009	$25,000
C061586	BOONE COUNTY REPUBLICAN WOMEN'S CLUB	4/3/2009	$150
C061138	LEWIS & CLARK REGIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	4/7/2009	$2,400
C091068	HOUSE REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE INC	6/30/2009	$11,294
C000953	MO REPUBLICAN PARTY	5/26/2009	$15,000
C061656	COMMITTEE TO ELECT REED	6/30/2009	$30,000
C000953	MO REPUBLICAN PARTY	5/26/2009	$15,000
C010201	SLAY FOR MAYOR	2/25/2009	$25,000
C001238	COMMITTEE TO ELECT STEVE EHLMANN	5/26/2009	$688
C001238	COMMITTEE TO ELECT STEVE EHLMANN	5/26/2009	$688
C010193	RON RICHARD 2010	7/27/2009	$1,000
C051183	FRIENDS OF PETER KINDER DEBT COMMITTEE	6/29/2009	$25,000
C091068	HOUSE REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE INC	6/30/2009	$11,294
C071357	CITIZENS FOR DIECKHAUS	7/16/2009	$4,500
C091068	HOUSE REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE INC	9/8/2009	$10,000
C051087	CITIZENS FOR TIMOTHY W JONES	9/1/2009	$40,000
C091112	FRIENDS OF RANDY JOTTE	9/25/2009	$10,000
C091129	PARSON FOR STATE SENATE	7/21/2009	$25,000
C010131	ICET FOR AUDITOR	7/10/2009	$25,000
C081066	CLINT ZWEIFEL FOR MISSOURI	7/14/2009	$5,000
C010111	BOB DIXON FOR SENATE	7/13/2009	$5,000
C010594	CITIZENS FOR NIEVES	7/15/2009	$5,000
C061656	COMMITTEE TO ELECT REED	6/30/2009	$30,000
C031260	DOOLEY FOR ST LOUIS COUNTY	7/8/2009	$30,000
C010111	BOB DIXON FOR SENATE	7/13/2009	$5,000
C010594	CITIZENS FOR NIEVES	7/15/2009	$5,000
2009 TOTAL			$542,013
C071194	FRIENDS OF CHRIS KELLY	1/2/2010	$5,001
C010086	CITIZENS FOR ED EMERY	1/9/2010	$5,001
C081145	CITIZENS TO ELECT KURT SCHAEFER	1/18/2010	$5,001
C101013	LET VOTERS DECIDE	1/19/2010	$500,000
2010 TOTAL			$515,003
ELECTION CYCLE TO DATE (as of Feb. 1, 2010)			$1,057,016

Mitt Romney backs Schweich for auditor, will headline April fundraiser

2010-02-03T17:52:00.001-06:00

Former GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney will headline a fundraising event April 27th for Republican Tom Schweich.

Schweich, a former political appointee of President Bush, is a newcomer to elected politics but has managed to pick up major national endorsements for his candidacy.

"I am honored and excited that a person of the experience, credibility, and credentials of Gov. Romney will be supporting my effort to ensure accountability and integrity in Jefferson City. I look forward to filling you in on the details as the event approaches," Schweich said in a statement.

Skelton, Emerson file legislation to block EPA regulation of GHGs without Congressional approval

2010-02-03T17:46:00.000-06:00

Two of Missouri's moderate Congressional representatives filed legislation today to prevent the federal Environmental Protection Agency from regulating greenhouse gases.

Reps. Ike Skelton (D) and Jo Ann Emerson (R), from Missouri, filed the legislation in Washington today that would bar EPA from listing greenhouse gases as a criteria pollutant under the Clean Air Act.

“Simply put, we cannot tolerate turning over the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions to unelected bureaucrats at EPA. America’s energy and environmental policies should be set by Congress," Skelton said during a press conference with Missouri’s Rural Electric Cooperatives, Missouri's Municipal Utilities, the Missouri Corn Growers, and the Missouri Soybean Association.

Emerson also acknowledged reluctance over EPA's publication of an endangerment finding, the first step toward regulating criteria pollutants under the Clean Air Act.

"I have no confidence that EPA can regulate greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act without severe harm to all taxpayers," Emerson said during the press conference. "Americans know we’re way too dependent on foreign oil and fossil fuels in this country—and I’ve worked hard to develop real solutions to that problem—but elected officials should be making these types of decisions, not unelected bureaucrats at the EPA."

Emerson and Skelton were identified in an MPN analysis to be Missouri's two most likely Congressional representatives to stray from the party line of their respective political parties. This effort clearly strays from the Democratic party-line, but is also supported by House Agricultural Chairman Collin Peterson, from Minnesota.

The draft bill text is available here.

Related Links:
Skelton Press Release
NY Times: House Ag Chairman Backs Bid to Block EPA Greenhouse Gas Regs

Examining Party Loyalty: Emerson most likely to buck trend in party loyalty among Missouri Congressional delegation

2010-02-03T04:59:00.001-06:00

Is Rep. Ike Skelton a Nancy Pelosi liberal Democrat? Or is Rep. Roy Blunt a Rush Limbaugh-like arch-conservative?

Well, lets just say catchy campaign slogans and advertisements aren't always the complete truth.

In reality, party labels aren't even always what they seem at all -- and that's a fact more than evident in MPN's latest analysis of Congressional votes from the 1st session of the 111th Congress.

Of Missouri's nine House members, three showed a surprising willingness in 2009 to buck their party when it counted most -- that is when the majority of members in either party disagreed in a floor vote. While two of the members will come as little surprise, one may shock even the most ardent political observers.

Party Loyalty Methodology
Many pundits and media outlets have their own methodology for measuring party loyalty, and that tends to include how often an elected official agrees with their party as a percent of total votes cast. In general this simplistic approach fails to distinguish between highly partisan votes and those in which Republicans actually agreed with Democrats. MPN's method diverges from this more classical approach to examine only votes where the majority of members from one political party actually disagreed with the majority from the other.

In 2009, U.S. House members cast votes in 991 roll calls. In only 487 of those, however, did the parties actually disagree. We call these 487 votes party-line votes. So if everyone voted along their own party line, the measure would be in favor of Democrats since Democrats currently control the chamber. Obviously that doesn't always happen and quite frequently Democrats will cross over to support the Republican side of the measure, or vice versa.

Examining the frequency with which candidates cross over can serve as a proxy for just how liberal or conservative a candidate really is, or even the delegation as a whole.

National Perspective in Party Loyalty
Nationally, members cast these party-line votes with their own party about 92 percent of the time. But when we disaggregate that total across the country, the results are intriguing and buck even conventional political wisdom in some regions.

Take for instance the state of Idaho, represented by two members of the House, one from each party. Idaho's delegation is the most likely to vote against their own party, with a party loyalty rate of just 60 percent. Driving that lower loyalty rate is Rep. Walt Minnick (D) who cast 290 votes against his own party in 2009. But even the Republican in the delegation, Rep. Mike Simpson, cast a surprising 104 votes against the Republican party-line.

Another state that might surprise the punditry with its low loyalty score -- Alaska. This is especially true since the lone member of the Alaskan House delegation is a Republican. In 2009, Rep. Young cast 131 party-line votes with Democrats driving the state's loyalty rate of just 71 percent.

So where are House members the most loyal? That honor is bestowed upon the Aloha State's delegation of two Democrats who collectively cast just 5 votes against their party in 2009. Maybe we should consider tossing around the accusation of being a "Hawaii liberal" here in landlocked Missouri.

The results for California may also be a little surprising. Collectively that state isn't really as loyal to the Democratic Party as the saying "Nancy Pelosi Democrat" may allude to. The California delegation is made of 35 Democrats and 19 Republicans, and on average they cast 36 votes against their parties. The rate was slightly higher for Republicans, but not by much.

There is not much room for rigorous statistical analysis here, but the scatterplot we've included shows where most states fall in terms of loyalty. All the states discussed above are the outliers, and Missouri is right in the middle of the road with a party loyalty rate of 94 percent.

Among states adjacent to Missouri -- which we'll call the Midwest for this exercise -- loyalty rates for House members are far lower than in the Show Me State. The bar chart of Midwestern states shows House delegation loyalty and the coloring reflects whether the delegation leans more Democratic or Republican. The most important thing to note here is that Missouri and Kansas are very close in terms of loyalty, driven by the majority of the delegation being made of Republicans. On the opposite end of the X-axis, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Kentucky show much less loyalty, and they're even Republican-dominated states. Nebraska has no Democratic representative, but the three Republican representatives can and do find grounds to break with their party.

Party Loyalty in Missouri's House Delegation

Missouri's nine House members collectively have a loyalty rate of 94 percent. That rate is driven down largely by a single official, Rep. Joe Ann Emerson (R) who has a rate of 77 percent. Emerson cast 110 votes against Republicans in 2009, including amendments to the federal stimulus, delay of the digital television implementation, fiscal year 2009 omnibus appropriations, and passage of pay-as-you go legislation.

In 2009, two other members of Missouri's delegation also bucked their parties nearly 10 percent of the time -- Rep. Ike Skelton (D) and Rep. Roy Blunt (R). Although we suspect Skelton's rate for past Congressional sessions would look very similar, Blunt's was likely driven down in 2009 due to his planned candidacy for the 2010 Missouri Senate open seat.

Skelton's 42 deviations from the Democratic party-line included major topics such as homeland security appropriations and the Democratic health care reform (H.R. 3962). In 13 of the cases Skelton voted against his party, the vote along with others in opposition actually caused measures to fail.

That's a striking contrast to Blunt who cast 41 votes in opposition to the Republican party-line. His voting pattern in 32 of those instances, however, tends to for amendments that were bound to fail.

We should also note that Blunt's loyalty rate appears lower than Skelton's, but that is driven by the large number of party-line votes missed by Blunt -- 19 to be exact. Among those votes are the final passage of homeland security appropriations, and passage of the Tobacco Act and Mortgage Reform legislation.

What does Party Loyalty mean for Missouri?
These scores, like so many other political indicators, show exactly how much a bellweather Missouri really is. Missouri's total loyalty rate is in the middle of the country -- ranked 33rd. The state's House delegation is roughly split down the middle in terms of party representation. And the distribution of loyalty among Missouri representatives spans a reasonably broad spectrum. Consider the low loyalty rate for Emerson, and we can almost call Missouri a draw in terms of partisanship.

In this state, it doesn't always pay to be loyal to your party and voters should recognize that candidates portraying themselves as strictly party loyalists probably aren't being completely honest with themselves or the public.

Related Links:
MPNblog.com Loyalty Scores for 111th Congress, 1st Session (2009)

Special Election Results: Dems win two, GOP wins one

2010-02-02T21:10:00.001-06:00

The outcome in all three of the special elections held today comes as no surprise, and follows MPNblog.com's predictions: Democrats won two of the seats and Republicans won one.

In St. Joeseph's House District 27, Pat Conway (D) won by a 31 point margin over challenger Jason Gregory (R). Conway received 1,240 votes and Gregory received 655 in the unofficial results.

In House District 57, Hope Whitehead (D) defeated Karla May (I) by an 11.8 point margin of the total 1,732 votes cast.

And in Branson's House District 62 Nita Jane Ayres (R) defeated Patty Tweedle (L) by a 55.6 point margin of the 1,703 votes cast. Democratic candidate James Rynard was previously disqualified from the race by the Ethics Commission.

These special elections won't change the balance of power in the Missouri House, where Republicans will continue to hold the majority by 14 seats. When the new representatives are sworn in later this year, the GOP will hold 88 seats and Democrats will have 74, with one vacancy created by the resignation of Rep. Brian Yates (R) in Nov. 2009.

Helling on deficits, debt and Reagan

2010-02-02T18:21:00.000-06:00

Here's a quick and dirty analysis of the deficits under various presidents from The Kansas City Star's Dave Helling:

President Barack Obama's 2011 budget blueprint has been hammered by Republicans and some Democrats for its projection of a $1.6 trillion dollar one-year deficit -- costs that will be added to the nation's debt.

But at least some figures show the administration will have to pick up the pace if it wants to match Ronald Reagan's record of deficit and debt accumulation.

In January 1981, the Treasury says, the nation's debt was $934.1 billion. That's when Reagan took office.

In January 1989, the nation's debt had risen to $2.7 trillion, roughly tripling during Reagan's term.

Read the full story here.

Key events in alleged pay to play scandal with State Sen. Matt Bartle's adult industry bill

2010-02-02T18:09:00.002-06:00

Special Election Tuesday for three vacant House seats

2010-02-02T06:56:00.001-06:00

Voters in three legislative districts across the state will be voting in special elections today to fill vacancies.

In the St. Joseph area, voters will select former Rep. Ed Wildberger's (D) replacement in District 27. The two candidates are Buchanan County Clerk Pat Conway (D) and Jason Gregory (R).

The campaign reports filed 8 days before the election (Jan. 24) showed Conway had raised $12,800 and spent just $2,477. In contrast, Gregory had raise $4,405 and spent $1,583.

In House District 57, in St. Louis, Hope Whitehead (D) will face Karla May (I). When Whitehead filed her 8 day notice before the election, her campaign had raised $14,651 and spent $7,637. Her campaign has since reported an additional $1,852 in receipts. May reported raising $3,964 for the contest and spent $2,371 as of 8 days ago.

Finally, in House District 62, which includes Branson, Nita Jane Ayres (R) will face Patty Tweedle (L). On Jan. 25, Ayres reported raising $22,755 for the election and spent $9,298. Tweedle, on the other hand, filed an exemption with the Ethics Commission indicating the campaign did not have significant fundraising or expenditures.

Our official predictions are that Conway will win in the 27th, Whitehead in the 57th and Ayres in the 62nd.

Related Links:
Conway Campaign Finance Reports | Conway Campaign Website
Gregory Campaign Finance Reports
Whitehead Campaign Finance Reports
May Campaign Finance Reports
Ayres Campaign Finance Report

Luetkemeyer reports half million in receipts, $3.1 million in debt

2010-02-02T05:21:00.000-06:00

U.S. Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer won't likely face opposition in the 2010 election, but that hasn't stopped fundraising for Luetkemeyer's political committee.

According to records filed with the Federal Election Commission, Luetkemeyer raised $576,600 so far for the 2010 election cycle but is also carrying $3.1 million in debt.

For the 2008 elections, Luetkemeyer raised approximately $2.7 million, which included funds for a 5-way primary and a general election contest that Luetkemeyer won by less than three percentage points.

About half of Luetkemeyer's contributions for the current cycle came from Political Action Committees, including the NRA, Conservative Victory Fund, and a variety of medical, finance, and insurance companies. An additional $250,000 in contributions came from individuals and businesses.

At the end of the reporting period Luetkemeyer had $338,591 cash on hand.

Related Links:
FEC Reports for Luetkemeyer
Leutkemeyer Campaign Website

Zweifel to headline St. Charles County Democratic kickoff

2010-02-01T22:31:00.000-06:00

Democrats in St. Charles County are planning a kickoff rally this Friday that will feature State Treasurer Clint Zweifel (D) as the headliner.

The event, called "2010 Race for the Win", will launch the campaigns of various candidates in St. Charles County.

“Our democratic candidates continue to gain momentum,” said Tommy Roberts, Chairman of the Democratic Central Committee. “The voters in St. Charles County have told us they are looking for leaders who listen and will work to create legislation that has a positive impact on our community. We heard them and we have candidates ready to go to work for the people of Missouri.”

The event, open to the public, will be held at 6 p.m. Friday, Feb. 5th at the Tri County Labor Headquarters in St. Charles.

Related Links:
St. Charles County Democratic Party Website

Martin pulls in $178,000 in last quarter of 2009, for bid to unseat Russ Carnahan

2010-02-01T20:55:00.000-06:00

Unseating Congressman Russ Carnahan (D) in Missouri's 3rd Congressional District won't be an easy feat for Ed Martin (R), but Martin is off to an impressive start.

On Monday, Martin reported raising $178,083 during the fourth quarter of 2009. According to a release from Martin's campaign, he now has $335,564 cash-on-hand. Carnahan, the incumbent, had $372,000 at the end of 2009.

“The high energy, grassroots support we’re getting from voters means we’re closer than ever to giving this district the representation it deserves,” Martin said in a press release.

Martin is running against Carnahan in Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District, which includes south St. Louis, parts of west and south St. Louis County, and all of Jefferson and Ste. Genevieve Counties.

Martin is currently facing Chris Sander in the Republican primary. Sander has not yet reported any contributions to date. The winner of the primary will face Carnahan in the Nov. General Election.

Obama's FY 2011 budget offers major investments for Missouri

2010-02-01T19:28:00.002-06:00

The White House released it's budget plan for the 2011 fiscal year on Monday, outlining major investments for Missouri in the proposal.

"For Missouri, the President’s Budget means lower taxes, better teachers and classrooms, and important investments in our roads, highways, and airports," a statement from the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) said. "Most importantly, the Budget lays a new foundation of economic growth and job creation for Missouri and the nation."

Specifically the $3.8 trillion Budget proposal includes for Missouri $5.8 billion for health care expenses, $1 billion for education, $1.2 billion for state transportation, $676 million for Pell grants, and $359 for housing assistance, the White House said.

The funding provided by the federal government has major implications for state lawmakers, also working on developing the state budget for the next fiscal year.

The President recently announced that the Budget will propose a three year freeze on discretionary, non-homeland spending. That freeze is evident throughout the budget with Agencies that received funding below the level enacted by Congress for the current fiscal year, FY 2010.

In coming weeks Congressional appropriations committees will begin dissecting the proposal and holding hearings on various components.

Related Links:
White House: Missouri Fact Sheet for FY 2011 Budget
White House: President's FY 2011 Budget Overview
White House Office of Management and Budget website

Missouri recipients of Stimulus funds report creation of 16,000 new jobs

2010-02-01T06:00:00.065-06:00

President Barack Obama used the State of the Union address last week as an opportunity to explain the Administration's activities to mitigate the negative impacts felt by Americans during a recession. Most of that activity -- including tax cuts -- came from the stimulus bill or Recovery Act.

"Economists on the left and the right say this bill has helped save jobs and avert disaster," Obama said during the address. "But you don't have to take their word for it. Talk to the small business in Phoenix that will triple its workforce because of the Recovery Act. Talk to the window manufacturer in Philadelphia who said he used to be skeptical about the Recovery Act, until he had to add two more work shifts just because of the business it created. Talk to the single teacher raising two kids who was told by her principal in the last week of school that because of the Recovery Act, she wouldn't be laid off after all."

It's clear that the federal stimulus funds have had a real and tangible impact in Missouri. According to reports released by the White House from recipients of those funds this week, an estimated 16,022 jobs were created during the last quarter of 2009. That number diverges from estimates released from the Council of Economic Advisers several weeks ago, which were based on macroeconomic modeling and not direct reporting of recipients.

MPN's analysis of reports filed by funding recipients under Sec. 1512 of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) identified projects ranging from road and bridge construction, to scientific research, to improvements of wastewater infrastructure.

In all, more than 4,100 reports were filed by recipients from Missouri, including state agencies and small businesses.A total of 260 projects were listed as completed by the end of 2009, reporting 743 new jobs at an average cost of about $120,000 (note that the cost often includes capital expenditures and is not reflective solely of payroll). A large share of the completed projects were reported by the Missouri Dept. of Transportation and include repaving, lift overlays, and efforts to bring Branson sidewalks into compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, among other projects.

Another 9,900 jobs were claimed as the result of projects estimated to be more than 50 percent complete, at a cost of nearly $700 million. Major projects in this category include:

New construction at the Cape Girardeau Airport
Replacement of the Tuscumbia Bridge over the Osage River (the first Recovery Act project nationally)
Purchase of new law enforcement equipment for the Cass County Sheriff's Department
Brownfield site assessments along Prospect and Paseo in Kansas City
Rehabilitation of 195 public housing units in Sedalia
Support for a new mobile dental unit at the Jordan Valley Community Health Center in Springfield

Many projects receiving funds in Missouri are expected to enter a new phase of development over the next quarter. Nearly $2 billion in allocated funding is currently assigned to projects that are less than 50 percent complete. While these projects reported just 5,200 jobs to date, that total could be expected to balloon to something on the order of 16,000 if spending patterns are consistent with projects already completed.

Job Creation By Congressional District
When the last recipient reports were released by the White House, stimulus opponents focused largely on the inability of recipients to properly identify their congressional districts. That issue has since been resolved (although it's likely there are still a fair number of Americans that remain ignorant about the number of their Congressional District).

As MPN indicated during the hype over these reports, the information by Congressional District remains somewhat useless since a large number of state funds are coded directly to state agencies, and thus skew the entire distribution of funding allocations. In other words, funds received by MoDOT and outlayed on projects across the state, are generally shown in Rep. Ike Skelton's Congressional district (MO-4) because it includes the state capitol of Jefferson City.

Nonetheless, we have provided a breakout of job creation estimates by Congressional District, but please interpret this information carefully noting the above comments.

Related Links:
Recovery.gov Missouri Data
Recovery.gov Data Downloads

CNN highlights Tuscumbia bridge project in Missouri

2010-01-31T20:39:00.000-06:00

CNN has a new feature on the first stimulus project in the country -- a bridge over the Osage River in Tuscumbia, Missouri.

CNN's report questions the jobs estimates touted by Missouri Dept. of Transportation Director Pete Rahn, who claimed hundreds of indirect jobs would be created as a result of the project.

In fact, those jobs may have been created but there is no direct evidence to substantiate their creation. CNN's investigative team, however, focuses only on the local Tuscumbia economy. It's unlikely that the town would have felt much of an impact since many of the materials would have come from specialty plants throughout the state.

According to recipient reports released by the White House over the weekend, the Tuscumbia bridge -- one of four transportation projects in Tuscumbia -- created 14 jobs in the fourth quarter of last year, including "skilled construction laborers, general laborers, equipment operators, carpenters, iron workers and cement masons".

The project received an $8.2 million allocation and has spent $5.2 million of that so far. It's status is listed as more than 50 percent complete, but according to CNN it's not quite complete yet one month into the first quarter of 2010.

The question CNN raises is was this a worthwhile use of taxpayer funds? We won't answer the question directly, but here is something to contemplate that was omitted from the CNN report: in the absence of the Tuscumbia bridge, locals would have to travel 20 to 30 miles to the next closest bridges. Assuming they would be trying to get from one side to the other of the river, the round trip could be up to 60 miles. Such a change in transportation costs could have, in the absence of the bridge, decimated the remaining local economy.

Just a thought to keep in mind as you watch the CNN report here.

MPNblog.com readership continues growth; BlogNet rankings return with MPN in top 10

2010-01-31T09:34:00.001-06:00

The readership here at MPNblog.com continues to increase since our re-launch in Oct. 2009. Compared to the heyday in 2008, however, readership still remains well below historic peaks.

Unique visits are up over 40 percent in Jan. 2010 from Dec. 2009, but remained 60 percent below peak readership from the summer of 2008.

* * * * *

The inconsistently compiled rankings from BlogNet.com returned this week. BlogNet's influence index ranks MPN 6th in the state, behind 3 media sites including St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Political Fix (#1), The Kansas City Star's Prime Buzz (#2), and KY3's Political Notebook (#4).

The BlogNet rankings consider visitors, comments, and references from other websites.