136700 41 Week High
1369.50 recent Globex high
1373.00 Old High
1385 Mrtopstep up side objective

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TechSentry2.23.pdf

SP 500 Futures Intra Day focus levels:

· SP 500 Futures 5 min…. ….. fading off none farm payroll bounce….no VST 5 min technical readings in the overnights…. Support focus 1355.10 / 1353.50 / 1353.20 /// Resistance focus: 1358.60, 1359.00, 1361.80 , 1362.20….. Next targets: VST 5 OB > 1363.50…..VST 5 OS < 1352.50

· SP 500 Futures 15 min Chart.......VST 15 min OB at 3:30am > 1361.00…..Support focus: 1355.20, 1354.80, 1353.50, 1353.20 /// Resistance focus: 1358.60, 1359.00, 1360.70, 1362.20, 1363.90, 1365.50, 1367.70, 1368.70….. Next targets: VST 15 OB > 1364 / VST 15 OS < 1350.50

· SP 500 Futures 60 Min Chart....... Drifting off Sunday's price gap. Watching Friday afternoon low at 1353.10 for sell stops. A measure of short term repair above 1362.50. Next technical targets: ST 60 OB > 1373.50; ST 60 OS < 1343.50 Futures Levels for Today

· SP 500 Futures...... chart noting lower highs into day 3 but bears have not yet been able to convert initial support....consolidation pattern until conversion can be confirmed....inside range 1350.70 / 1362.25.....outside range 1340.50 / 1368.50

Ø SP 500 Futures weekly closing resistance at rising channel at 1365 (for fresh breakout)....May 2011 high follows at 1372.80...... Momentum loss in this time frame at 1342.00

· Nasdaq 100 Futures.....Feb 15 high breached by 2.00 points sees daily candles showing sell wicks against 2600.... ND1 lower high day 2...inside range 2572 / 2591....outside range 2546 / 2603

· DJIA (futures +20).... inside range tightens 12885 / 13011....outside range 12825 (first reversal) / 13085

· DJTA.... lower low .... negative divergence.... continuation < 5119 opens air to 5045.... inside range 5118 / 5195....outside range 5045 / 5243.....moving average levels working 34 / 55/ 89 at

· OEX.......reaching next ledge of concentrated resistance at 620 compressing risk reward parameters ......inside range 620 / 610....first reversal lifted to 606

· Nasdaq Composite.....runs into a wall at 2962....inside range 2962 / 2927.....outside range 3020 / 2885

· SP 400 Mid Cap....leaving a lower high double top at 989.98 / 988.14 puts us in divergence confirmation.....inside range 965 / 992....first reversal below the former

· SP 600 Small Cap....also a lower high in play 464.98 / 463.75 puts us in divergence confirmation .....inside range 459 / 453....outside range 467 major / 446

· Russell 2000...... flag formation in danger of downside resolution.....inside range 837 / 810....outside range 843 / 798

· Gold Futures.....a double bottom was left in play at 1706 with wedge resolution above 1737.50 ....multiple layers buy stops run on yesterday's surge ..... .inside range 1790 / 1755....outside range 1809 / 1737.50

· Silver....working a continuation > 34.90 opens air to 35.80/ 36.00

· Crude Oil Futures…breakout continuation pattern on Iran export cuts / geopolitical tensions…. extending……..expanding inside range 107.90 / 104.90…outside range 110.30 / 103.70

· EURUSD…. higher high pass after Ifo….tests area of noted resistance ….. inside range 1.3338 / 1.3220…..outside range 1.3428 / 1.3085

· VIX… .higher low so far….inside range 17.50 / 19.40….outside range 16.30 / 21.50

· Shanghai Composite….extension reaching our upside accelerator at 2420….break opens air 2475, 2512, 2539 next concentrated

· Nikkei 225…..short term OVERBOUGHT > 9580…..inside range 9710 / 9430

· Frankfurt Dax….short term OVERBOUGHT > 6940…..inside range 6770 / 6970….outside range 6630 / 7110

· Paris CAC….top of daily chart range for technical objective 3516…..inside range 3516 / 3380….outside range 3605 / 3308

· London FTSE….consolidating at top of range……inside range 5983/ 5891…..outside range 6075 / 5813

· Brazil Bovespa….consolidation helping to correct overbought….inside range 66700 / 65000…..outside range 68200 / 63200

SP 500 Futures 60 min Chart Model….

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SP 500 Futures Daily Chart Model….lower highs noted but still needing bears to convert initial rising moving averages 1351.50 (13-day = light green ); 1339.75 (21-day = light blue)

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Crude Oil Weekly Chart Model…..consolidation breakout pattern……next ledge of concentrated resistances at 110.20

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Roger Volz Director BGC FINANCIAL L.P. Cash Equities 646-346-7412 1-866-323-1585

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Over many year of being a marking participant, I have learned that when the boat gets over crowded it may be time to get to get the life vest ready. As our following grows many don’t know of some the big directional calls we have made over the last five years. For those that have seen it you know we called the S&P down to 750 and then down to 650 at the height of the credit crisis. In the world of the big guys on Wall St and all their big calls MTS probably only gets to the traders on the desk, not into the big research departments but that is not what we are looking for. Did we know that the 666 low would eventually led the S&P back to 1400 four years later? No we didn’t but we have been part of some good directional calls over the last few years. Some were at exact highs and lows and some were not but at the end of the day we did catch some big moves.

There is no secret to the fact the “money” is pouring into the stock market but with the S&P up 28% since the OCT lows we feel there is reason to be concerned. If you asking why would change so quickly the answer is simple; the markets are way over done short term. It does not have to be anything other than that but if you wanted to add in a few negatives why not thrown in crude oil that is approaching $110. No one is going to tell us when the markets are going to turn back down but we think the smart money is going to sell into this rally. That whether it’s 1373, 1385 or 1400 the markets are reaching that may not be so easy to overcome. Are we ready to jump ship? Not yet but we are getting ready!

Its 5:30 am and the ESH is up .50 handles at 1356.50, crude is up .9 cents at 106.37 and the EC is trading 133.03, up 58. In Asia 9 of 11 markets closed lower. In Europe 9 out of 13 markets are trading lower. The main headline this morning is “Iran Sends Gas Prices Higher” Today economic calendar starts with the jobless claims numbers at 7:30, FHFA house price index at 9:00, Nat gas numbers at 9:30, Kansas City Fed manufacturing index at 10:00.

Our view? We want to be very clear about this; we are looking for some type of high but that doesn’t mean today or tomorrow. We believe with the S&P up over 28% since its OCT lows that the markets are in need of a pull back. That does not mean a collapse. Can the SPH trade 1373 or  higher? Sure it can but somewhere in here we think a 30 to 40 handle pull back could be nearing. As for today we are still lean to selling rallies but we also think the SPH may rally early. You take it from there..As always use stops and keep an eye on the 10 handle rule.

VOLUME: 1.43mil ESH and 4k SPH traded
SPREADS: 161 SPH/M and 100 SPU/Z spreads traded
FV: S&P FLAT +1.00, NASDAQ +5.00

YOU WANT A LOOK AT WHAT OUR TRADERS SEE EVERYDAY? SIGN UP FOR THE NEW IM TRIAL AT WWW.MRTOPSTEP.COM/FREE IT’S THE REAL DEAL!

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CONGESTION AT OLD HIGHS 1365/67

Wednesdays trade started with 240k ESH and 900 SPH traded on Globex, trading range 1364.00 – 1356.50 and a two handle gap lower  RTH’s opening range of 1357.80 -1358.70. Tuesdays range was 1356 / 1365.50′s. Yep, we are backing off  from Tuesday’s test of the Bin Laden highs, but is there enough gas left in the tank to take out last year Bin laden Globex high 1373 or test the big figure at 1400.00? Tom Demark went on Bloomberg Tv on Tuesday sharing his thought there could be another run to new highs before heading south.  We shall see… mts2 (08:42:04): WB’s DAILY PIVOT 1360.5 Mike V aka @princetontrader Daily 1361.25 (1361.75 – 1360.75) 3 day 1360.92 (1361.25 – 1360.5After opening 2 handles lower the spoos traded up to 1360.70 and then got hit by several small sell programs down to 1353.20. After the low the SPH slowly ground higher back up to the 1358.50. At 1:00CST the SPHs daily trading range was 7.5 handles and the middle of the days range saw the most action. This is indicative of the days trade – cash imbalance $110M to buy side & 19 / 30 DJIA TO BUY / MICE NUTS // 537M NYSE VOL. On the 3:00 cash close the SPH traded 1355.20 and then settled at 1355.90 down 4.2 handles on the 3:15 futures close.

In the end the low volumes are speaking louder than words. The higher we go the less there is of it….

Yesterday’s MrTopStep Video http://mrtopstep.com/2012/02/2-22-2012-over-bought-and-getting-tired/

CLOSING PRINT  http://mrtopstep.com/2012/02/2-22-2012-closing-print-with-options/

“DAY 35 $QLD $106 MAKES 2X TOP / BOLLINGERS “ROUND”  http://tinyurl.com/7qgljv4

MrTopStep Charts “SUGAR & BIN LADEN HIGH TEST $ESH 1366 / MATCHING WEEKLY HIGHS” http://tinyurl.com/7bw7d9d

MrTopStep Talks Benzinga Radio WrapUp  http://bit.ly/A4BaHn

We recreated the picture, try your free trial to the MTS team!www.mrtopstep.com/free

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ECONOMIC CALENDAR: http://mrtopstep.com/economic-calendar

CONTRIBUTORS’ CORNER

SPX CHARTS ~~PINCH ALERT! Richard Chappell, Patterns & Channels

On the equity charts I was watching carefully for a break of rising (sort of wedge) resistance on SPX to see whether the Vix Buy Signal might boost SPX through resistance. That didn’t happen and the high yesterday was exactly at the resistance trendline level I gave yesterday morning. The retracement that followed then bounced at the rising support trendline that started to break down last week, showing that trendline is also still in play.

There are two things to note from this. The first is that until that resistance trendline is broken on SPX, this is a topping setup, and the most likely break direction is downwards. The second is that is that these (sort of) rising wedge trendlines are now very close together, and will in fact cross in about a week. The range between those trendlines is less than 10 points now, and getting smaller by about 2 points per trading day. We are extremely likely to see a break one way or the other by the end of this week:

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MTS NEWS & OBSERVATIONS:

MrTopStep & Benzinga Wednesday WrapUp Radio: http://mrtopstep.com/2011/12/mrtopstep-talks-benzinga-radio-wrapup-5/

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Pivot Points for the E-Mini, Crude Oil and Gold Futures Trading

ESH2 Pivot (Pivot High – Pivot Low)                       

Daily 1357.67 (1358.50 – 1356.83)

3 day 1359.50 (1361.25 – 1357.75)

9 day  1353.08 (1354.54 – 1351.63)

20 day 1340.50 (1348.25 – 1332.75)

45 day 1308.08 (1332.04 – 1284.13)

CLJ2

Daily 106.20 (106.24 – 106.17)

3 day 105.87 (106.08 – 105.67)

GCG2

Daily 1770.5 (1773.9 – 1767.1)

3 day 1762.6 (1769.9 – 1755.2)

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