This post says we are.

Definitely recommended reading if you’re interested in future of the California housing market.

Pending Over Active ratio relates to buyers and sellers. Basic Econ 101, Supply and demand. Actives (represents sellers), or properties that are still available, versus Pending (represents buyers), or properties leaving the market. That relationship often indicates whether we’re in a “sellers or buyers” market.

A ratio of 1 (an equal number of Actives and Pending) is considered a normal market or in a state of equilibrium. Anything under (high inventory, few buyers), prices are flat or dropping. Anything above (low inventory, many buyers) is considered a seller’s market.

The trend since earlier this year indicates that we are in a “sellers” market in most cities. However, one factor that may be skewing the numbers is that there are longer escrows due to REOs and increased government loans.

Months Supply, Basically, months supply is the ratio of inventory to sales. What it tells us is how many months the stock of homes for sale would last, if sales continued at their current rate. Six months supply is considered normal or equilibrium.

We are currently at a two month supply of houses for sale for the entire 38 cities that I track. Many cities are now below that level with a few even below 30 days. This is also an indicator that we are in a “sellers” market in most cities.

DOM, (Days On Market), continue to decrease in most areas. Houses are going into escrow quicker. However, once in escrow, they are taking longer to close.

Also, the relationship between what, on average, homes are selling for to list price support this. We’re seeing properties in many areas getting multiple offers and actually now, on average, selling at or above the average list price. The spreadsheet takes into account sales by city during the last 4 months.

Areas that were hit hardest last year due to high inventories and downward pressure on prices due to the high number of distressed properties on the market, are now starting to see some recovery, especially in the lower priced areas. Examples would be in East Contra Costa along highway 4, (Pittsburg, Antioch, Brentwood, even Concord). More recently, in West Contra Costa in the San Pablo, Richmond, Pinole, Hercules areas).

Finally, we are starting to see a slight increase in foreclosed properties coming onto the market. 17% of active listings are foreclosed properties (REOs), as compared to 14% last month.

Call me if you’d like to chat more in depth about the San Francisco East Bay market.

-Glen 510-333-4460

Download a PDF w/ the rest of Glen’s Numbers 10-31-09

Glen’s numbers 9.30.09

DOM (Days on Market) is decreasing, months supply in most areas have reached lows, and the relationship between what, on average, homes are selling for to list price support this. We’re seeing properties in many areas getting multiple offers and actually now, on average, selling at or above the average list price.

Areas that were hit hardest last year due to high inventories and downward pressure on prices due to the high number of distressed properties on the market, are now starting to see some recovery, especially in the lower priced areas. Examples would be in East Contra Costa along highway 4, (Pittsburg, Antioch, Brentwood, even Concord). More recently, in West Contra Costa in the San Pablo, Richmond, Pinole, Hercules areas).

Pendings have increased dramatically. However, this is due in part to longer escrow periods and a larger number of short sale transactions.

Call me if you’d like to chat more in depth about the San Francisco East Bay market.

-Glen 510-333-4460

Research using a massive sample of 24 million individual credit files has found that homeowners with high scores when they apply for a loan are 50% more likely to “strategically default” — abruptly and intentionally pull the plug and abandon the mortgage — compared with lower-scoring borrowers.

Among researchers’ findings are these eye-openers:

* The number of strategic defaults is far beyond most industry estimates — 588,000 nationwide during 2008, more than double the total in 2007. They represented 18% of all serious delinquencies that extended for more than 60 days in last year’s fourth quarter.

* Strategic defaulters often go straight from perfect payment histories to no mortgage payments at all. This is in stark contrast with most financially distressed borrowers, who try to keep paying on their mortgage even after they’ve fallen behind on other accounts.

* Strategic defaults are heavily concentrated in negative-equity markets where home values zoomed during the boom and have cratered since 2006. In California last year, the number of strategic defaults was 68 times higher than it was in 2005. In Florida it was 46 times higher. In most other parts of the country, defaults were about nine times higher in 2008 than in 2005.

Definitely recommended reading.

The catch

To get the freshest lists of East Bay REO’s, you’ll need to be on our private MEBA mailing list. We’ll still publish the list from the previous week here on MEBA, BUT if you want the freshest list, you should join our mailing list. We’ll never spam you or send you emails full of worthless information and you’ll always be privy to the latest & greatest info from us. Plus you can always unsubscribe, no questions asked.

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In the meantime, here’s the East Bay REO list from 09.09.09

From Carolyn Said’s article in SFGate.

Also worth noting is that:

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the House Financial Service Committee, said he was disappointed with the program’s slow pace. According to news reports, he threatened to revive legislation that would allow bankruptcy judges to reduce principal balances on home loans, an idea fiercely opposed by the industry.

If you’re behind in payments, or think you might be headed in that direction, the NID Housing Counseling Agency is putting on a series of foreclosure prevention workshops in Oakland.

The workshops are being held every Wednesday 5:00pm – 7:00pm and every 1st and 3rd Saturday from 10:00am – 3:00pm at 3560 Grand Avenue in Oakland.

Here’s a link to their flyer for more info [pdf]

[h/t Empire Realty Blog]

[flickr photo credit HeartofOak]