Here are the Glen’s Numbers for the San Francisco Bay Area as of June 30, 2010.

Normal seasonal influence has inventories continuing to rise, up 7.3% over the last month, and up a whopping 76% year to date. Also typical, we’re showing an increase in sales, up 15% over the last 4 month period. What is not typical is that pending sales have actually fallen 5.4% over the last month, and by a total of 10.3% over the last two months.

We would have to assume that in part, this was due to the federal and state incentive programs ending 4/30/2010. Fewer buyers are going into contract now. Keep in mind that the extension is only for buyers who were already in contract by 4/30/2010 allowing them to close at a later date. This will ultimately result in a drop in the number of sales in the coming months resulting in further concerns about the state of housing market here in the Bay Area.

The Month’s supply of homes that are for sale has increased from a low of 1.7 months at the beginning of the year to a 3 month supply now. The long range average for California is 7.2 months as stated by C.A.R. (California Association of Realtors). However, the San Francisco Bay Area tends to fair better than the rest of the state with a long range average considered to be closer to a six month supply of homes for sale.

This is in line with what we are seeing in the ratio between actives and pending. The ratio at the beginning of the year was at a high of 1.66, (low inventories with a high number of buyers going into contract indicating a stronger seller’s market). We are now looking at a ratio of 1.04. This is an indication that our markets are once again approaching what is considered to be “normal,” or what may be referred to as a state of equilibrium, or roughly having the same amount of buyers as sellers.

The question I would have to ask is whether we’re seeing an actual correction back to a “normal market, or are we seeing the beginning of a trend that will witness a move back to a slight buyer’s market with higher inventories and fewer buyers going into contract.

C.A.R.’s indication is that we saw our “trough” in February 2009 for the San Francisco Bay Area. Median prices have increased by 46.2% as of April 2010. Will we be seeing a “setback” in this “recovery?” Let’s see how this pans out in the coming months.

Update: Click here to download an entire copy of my numbers through June 30th

Here’s a double dose of foreclosure related info from the folks at ForeclosureRadar which I thought you’d find useful.

First off, COO Mark C. Skilling fills us in on “What’s new in Sacramento? (SB 1178 / SB 1275 / AB 1639)”. Looks like some more foreclosure related legislation is headed our way, including:

Extending borrowers protections from personal liability purchase money loans that have been refinanced (SB 1178)

Delaying the start of the foreclosure process until after final determination of a loan modification request (SB 1275)

Providing a way for borrows to be compensated if their home is sold at auction by the lender’s mistake (SB 1275)

Delaying the start of the foreclosure process until the completion of mediation between the borrow and lender (AB 1639)

For a full breakdown, check out the entire post where he breaks the bills down in detail.

Also worth checking out is founder & CEO Sean O’Toole’s powerpoint deck from his recent talk at SJREI ‘”Foreclosures: Market Update & Opportunities” which does an excellent job of breaking down where we are, how we got here and gives his take on where we’re headed and where the opportunities are.  I’ve included screen shots of a couple of slides below and definitely recommend downloading & checking out the deck.

Last week’s holiday shortened auction schedule resulted in an overall decrease in the East Bay Trustee Sale numbers across the board. As a result I focused mainly on the percentages in this week’s video. After a dramatic jump last week in properties taken back by the banks as REO, this week’s numbers showed a reversal of that trend.

The May edition of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers show that housing inventories continued to climb at an unusually fast pace, up 64% since the beginning of the year. Since January 1st the month’s supply has increased from 1.7 months to 2.8 months while the pending over active ratio dropped from 1.66 to 1.18.

When comparing these numbers to May of 2009, we’re able to put this in a better perspective.

Last year’s May numbers are similar to this year’s as follows:

1) Active Listings (Homes for sale) are roughly within 2% of last year’s numbers.
2) Pending Sales (Homes in contract) are within 5% of last year’s numbers.
3) We now have a 2.8 month supply, the same as last year.
4) The Pending over active ratio was 1.15 last year, now 1.18.

Although it’s typical to see a swing up in homes coming onto the market from December to May, we haven’t seen an increase of this size so quickly since I have been tracking these numbers (2005).

I think the real question to ask here is not why are we seeing such a huge increase but why were December’s numbers so low?

Government programs and concerns over bank financial statements were an influence. REOs continued to dominate sales while few were coming on to replenish the market. As an REO agent, dealing in foreclosed properties, our assignments dropped off dramatically beginning last fall. Other REO agents confirmed similar circumstances. This is also consistent with what many media sources have indicated.

A comparison over a four month period, between this year and last year, shows a dramatic drop in REO sales. 32% of the sales over the last 4 months have been REOs. For the same four month period last year, 63% of sales were REOs.

This year’s increase was not dominated by distressed properties coming onto the market. Active listings, pending sales, and sales over the last 4 months are all down by about 5% compared to what they were at the beginning of the year.

From what we’re hearing, this may change in the coming months. Foreclosure activity has increased over the last few weeks and we, as well as other agents, are beginning to see new assignments.

All indications are that distressed properties will continue to be a factor for several years.

You can download an entire copy of my May 2010 numbers here

The dam might not be breaking, but it looks like someone is at least opening a relief valve.

The results from the Alameda and Contra Costa Trustee Sale auctions from the week of May24-28th are in and they show a dramatic increase in the number of properties being taken back by the lender.  We also saw a rise in the amount of properties scheduled for auction and a drop in the percentage of those getting postponed.

Will this week’s results continue the trend? We’ll have to wait & see.

Anybody have any predictions?

/via Housing Wire: Shadow Inventory Could Take Four Years to Clear: Morgan Stanley

The shadow inventory of homes with delinquent mortgages yet to move through the foreclosure process would take 47 months to clear at the current sales rate in the market, according to a newly-published housing finance report from Morgan Stanley

/via Allan Glass: May California Foreclosure Report – Where are the REO’s

In his stat filled post that’s defintiely worth checking out, Glass concludes that,

If you’re an investor and haven’t educated yourself on buying at trustee sales or are waiting for the REO’s to fall into you lap, you’ll likely keep waiting. If you’re a Realtor® still trying to figure out how to become an REO broker, you’re missing the boat.

/via bubbleinfo.com: More on RE Revolution

There’s some great info in this post from Jim Klinge, AKA JimtheRealtor(<-I highly recommended his YouTube channel), where he takes on a tough topic and shares his 'Thoughts About Going Direct to the Listing Agent‘ & nails it IMO.

In hopes of trying to balance my output with my input, I’m going to start summarizing what’s in some of my open tabs in my browser and sharing them with you.  That way we can all be smarter

/via Sacramento Business Journal: Foreclosed homeowners could owe ‘tens thousands of dollars’ to lenders.

You may not know it, but if you’ve refinanced from your original purchase loan and lose your home to foreclosure, you may be on the hook for the difference between the amount owed & the property’s value.

For example, if a homeowner has $200,000 outsanding for a refinanced mortgage and the lender forecloses on the house with the property valued at $150,000, the former homeowner could be liable for the remaining $50,000.

Senate Bill 1178 is trying to close that loophole.

/via REALTOR.org: Existing-Home Sales Continue to Improve in April

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the gain was widely anticipated. “The upswing in April existing-home sales was expected because of the tax credit inducement, and no doubt there will be some temporary fallback in the months immediately after it expires, but other factors also are supporting the market,” he said. “For people who were on the sidelines, there’s been a return of buyer confidence with stabilizing home prices, an improving economy and mortgage interest rates that remain historically low.”

/via SF Gate: Loan modifications often damage credit scores

Lots of good info in this article from Carolyn Said, but if you’re looking into a possible loan modification, there’s a list of tips in the article that you should be aware of…

• If you’re requesting a loan modification, here are some steps you can take to try to protect your credit:
• Try to stay current on payments while requesting a trial modification.
• Try to get a loan mod under the federal Home Affordable Modification Plan (HAMP), which has less impact on credit.
• Request that the lender not report your trial loan payments as partial payments.
• Make your trial payments on time.
• Homeowners who believe that servicers are not treating them fairly or complying with program guidelines can contact the HOPE Hotline at (888) 995-4673.

Last Thursday the MEBA team, along with other members of our Keller Williams Berkeley office spent the day outside in the sun working at the Chaparral House in Berkeley. The outing was part of the second annual RED (Renew, Energize and Donate) Day, a Keller Williams service initiative dedicated to improving our local communities and it ended up being a lot of fun.

Here’s a video that I put together from our outing. If you look closely, you can see that it’s indeed true that you can take a REALTOR out of the office for a day, but that doesn’t mean that you can’t pry the phone from their head.