Aardsma remains one of the biggest coups of Jack Zduriencik’s tenure as Mariners GM. Aardsma was traded for Fabian Williamson, who is presently getting his shit kicked in pitching for Oakland’s farm system. Aardsma was the Mariners closer for most of two seasons, compiling 69 saves and 9.6 K/9.

Aardsma was expected to be one of the Mariners top trade chips last offseason, but Tommy John surgery derailed that. The Mariners have Brandon League in their closer role now, and have worked to improve their bullpen this offseason. Since Aardsma won’t be available until mid-season, he makes more sense for a team like the Yankees, who figure to be in contention in July, while the Mariners future is more uncertain.

For Aardsma the move makes a ton of sense. In the wake of Mariano Rivera at least entertaining the thought of retirement (but who really knows with that guy), someone will have to replace him. Joba Chamberlain was expected to be that guy, but a mid-season Tommy John surgery may have derailed his chances also.

Interesting fact: Aardsma was injured during or prior to spring training, Chamberlain was injured mid-season, yet Chamberlain had Tommy John surgery (June 8) more than a month before Aardsma.

Vinnie Catricala, LF/3B, Jackson Generals (AA, 24.4 years old on average in 2011)

6-2, 210 lbs, 23 years old

Bats: Right, Throws: Right

Acquired: 2009 Amateur Draft (10^th Round)

ETA: Late-2012

Catricala is a prospect from Jack Zduriencik’s maiden 2009 draft, a draft that seems to be turning into one that will help to define the franchise’s farm system revival (also included Dustin Ackley, Nick Franlin, Kyle Seager, and Anthony Vasquez). Catricala came in as a guy who seemed likely to move off of third base, if only because of his size, but a guy that may hit. Hit Vinny has. He OPS’d 1.021 last year in a split between High Desert and Jackson, and unlike the expectation of such a split, Catricala’s OPS was actually 56 points higher at Jackson. While at Jackson (276 plate appearances) he hit 11 homeruns, three triples, and 29 doubles. That’s good for a blistering .285 isolated power. Catricala certainly rode a .395 BABIP to his impressive .351/.424/.636 slash line, but according to Stat Corner he hit 24.0 percent line drives while at Jackson. The biggest wart for Catricala is that he doesn’t have a defined position. He probably isn’t the third baseman of the future, and if he’s going to DH he will probably have to do it in another town, as Jesus Montero figures to hold that position down for the next half-decade at least. Last year Catricala spent a bunch of time in the outfield, and his progression defensively will probably be his key to the majors.

Potential (of 40): 29

Probability of Success (of 30): 20

Positional value (of 20): 9

Character (of 10): 10

OVERALL: 78

Ichiro will hit behind Chone Figgins. Not as literally as this picture though. In this picture Ichiro is hitting behind Figgins who is hitting behind Ichiro who is hitting behind Figgins who is hitting behind Ichiro...

According to reports, Ichiro will be moving to the third spot in the order, with Chone Figgins taking the everyday duties at third base, as well as sliding up into the leadoff spot.

On the surface this seems silly. Moving Ichiro—the best leadoff hitter in Mariner history—is almost sacrilegious to some fans at this point in his career. And that he’s making way for Figgins—unarguably the biggest blemish on the Jack Zduriencik regime—doesn’t make things any better for those same fans.

Supposedly Ichiro will be attempting to channel his power stroke. On a podcast a few weeks ago I doubted that Ichiro would ever actually commit himself to hitter for power. We’ll see how the season plays out, but it looks like as of right now, I was wrong.

Whether he can be successful doing that I still have my doubts about. There is no question that Ichiro has elite hand-eye coordination. He’s one of few hitters who can seem to literally “hit ‘em where they ain’t” rather than simply hitting balls hard with the hope that they drop in. If he’s able to use that hand eye coordination to find a middle ground between low-power slap hitter and slugger, he’s an even more impressive athlete than I already think.

In the same podcast I talked about how Ichiro hasn’t shown “old-man skills.” Usually players that have success as they near 40 years old do at least one of two things well: Hit for power, and walk. If Ichiro’s able to do the former, there’s a good chance he’ll be valuable again.

Moving Figgins to leadoff seems fundamentally flawed. He’s been bad since coming to the Mariners, and was really bad in 2011, probably the league’s worst hitter.

I’m not a big believer in the idea that players are prone to huge swings in production based on their batting order position. That said, batting behind a guy like Ichiro is probably the worst place Figgins could hit. And vice versa.

There are some pretty serious realities we have to face with this move. It was not too long ago that both these guys were good baseball players. There’s also a good possibility that neither player will be good again.

The Mariners have a significant financial commitment to both players though, and this is perhaps a last-ditch effort to coax production out of this $25 million-ish per year investment before giving up on both players.

And for the Mariners sake, if not the fans intrinsically, seeing Figgins become an adequate leadoff hitter is probably more desirable than Ichiro becoming a fraction of a traditional No. 3 hitter, because Ichiro’s bat would be much easier to replace.

I’ve railed against the idea for a long time that third basemen are categorized as “corner infielders,” because that does a very poor job of explaining the expectations of a third baseman offensively. League average wRC+ is 96 (it would theoretically be 100, but pitchers, who aren’t counted toward the theoretical average bring the overall average down). Last year the league-average wRC+ for a third baseman was 92. It was 109 for right fielders.

If Ichiro flops again, and Figgins is his equivalent, it would be much easier to replace Ichiro at a net gain than to do the same for Figgins.

And no matter how any of this goes, opening day lineups aren’t a static image of the lineup that must be kept throughout an entire year. It’s very possible that Figgins may play himself onto the waiver wire. It’s possible that Ichiro will play himself back to the leadoff spot, or onto the bench. Maybe the lineup will work great. Maybe it won’t be a function of the lineup, but a function of the caressing of two fragile egos. Baseball players change roles sometimes. Today is one of those days.

We are sure putting a lot of time and energy into stressing about where two presently-shitty hitters will hit next year.

JK Guys (and Girls, don’t get me or my headline writer (also me) fired (I bet you don’t see a lot of double parentheses)). Manny probably isn’t good anymore. Since he got suspended for taking a woman’s fertility medication while he played for the Dodgers, he has been downright human. He retired after playing only five games with the Rays last year, facing yet another suspension. He was a good player in 2010 (138 wRC+ in 320 plate appearances), but he will be about a year-and-a-half removed from that when he suits up for the first time this year, and that much farther from his prime, as he still must serve the suspension he ducked by retiring, though it has been reduced by 50 games.

The $500K the A’s will spend on his is low-risk, and I mean, he’s still Manny Ramirez. It’s basically a no-brainer to sign him to a deal like this.

But this is almost non-news. Wake me up in 50 games. Worse news is that Raul Ibanez is a Yankee. Ew.

Phillips Castillo, OF, Arizona League Mariners (Rookie, 20.0 years old on average in 2011)

6-2, 190 lbs, 18 years old

Bats: Right, Throws: Right

Acquired: International Signing (2010)

ETA: 2015

Since Jack Zduriencik has been the Mariners general manager, the team has put a huge emphasis on international scouting and player acquisition. Several of the players that they’ve added using that process have already appeared on this prospect list. Presently Castillo is the best prospect of the bunch. Considered one of the best hitters of the 2010 class of free agents, Castillo came stateside and produced pretty well in the Arizona League (.848 OPS), Castillo probably didn’t hit as many homeruns as a successful season by him would be expected to produce, but his 24 extra-base hits in 48 games is impressive at any level. Castillo has very few doubts about his defensive ability, which is really what gave him the nod over Guillermo Pimentel. Even though Castillo will likely end up in a corner outfield spot, he’s likely to be a plus-defender there.

Potential (of 40): 40

Probability of Success (of 30): 12

Positional value (of 20): 14

Character (of 10): 10

OVERALL: 76

Unfortunately for Cameron, he wasn’t Griffey at the plate. Not many have been. But Cameron’s offensive value was quite undervalued, because many media members chose to focus on his strikeouts. He struck out over 24 percent of his career plate appearances. He also had a 11 percent walk rate and a .195 isolated power. He even had some of his best years in Seattle,  accruing 19.7 WAR in four years. Cameron was worth 52.6 WAR in his career, which you probably didn’t know. I know I didn’t know that. I knew he was good, and better than perception would indicate, but damn Mike Cameron, you had one hell of a career!

This kind of thing will make Sacramento hate Seattle, even if the Kings stay.

It’s been an exciting couple of days in the Seattle area. There is a buzz in the city that I haven’t personally experienced in a couple years, since Ken Griffey Jr. made his return to the Mariners. The whole city seems to be talking about Chris Hansen. Hansen is a hedge-fund manager who grew up in Seattle, and cited a “civic obligation” to help bring the Sonics back to Seattle.

But the new Sonics shouldn’t be the old Kings. At least not in a world that is anywhere near perfect.

Two months ago there were probably less people in Seattle who knew who Chris Hansen was than millions of dollars he has in his stock portfolio. One month ago, there was probably essentially no awareness in Seattle of the pending legislation in Sacramento that could eventually lead to a new arena, a team sale, or the team’s eventual departure from the city.

And now a lot of people in Seattle are prepared to do to Sacramento what the NBA did to Seattle: Steal their team.

There are plenty of teams in the NBA that are in bad media markets. There are plenty of teams in the NBA that aren’t drawing enough fans to sustain themselves. There are plenty of teams in the NBA that would be candidates to move if the right situation presented itself to the league. The Kings don’t have to be the one for Seattle.

I remember what it felt like when the Sonics left in 2008. I remember what the winters have been like for the past three years, living on the fumes of two Washington basketball games a week until the beginning of baseball season. I have felt the emptiness. I have felt the heartache. But I’ve had other options. I’ve had a baseball season to look forward to. I’ve had a football season to look forward to. Sacramento doesn’t.

Really, as members of a mid-market city, Seattle residents should empathize with the Kings. Poor ownership, combined with a global economic recession that has hit Sacramento hard, and a team that picked the absolute wrong time to have a downswing have led to the same perfect storm of events that may lead to the Kings leaving. Sacramento has even had the backing of the NBA, as well as a mayor who actually played in the NBA, instead of some dickhead (fuck you so much Greg Nickels) who didn’t care about the team.

The worst part is that fans of both teams—to a large extent—are simply a victim of circumstance. The Kings fanbase has been destroyed by recession-shrunken government-staff that makes up a large part of the work force in the city, and the Sonics fanbase was a victim of a city and state government that refused to support them as a civic institution, and an ownership group that treated team like an extremely-high-dollar coffee shop, and a subsequent ownership group that never had any plans to keep the team in Seattle.

New Orleans has failed to support two teams in the past 35 years. Charlotte has failed to support two teams in the past decade. Neither of those cities deserve the team they have.

Sacramento has one team. They’ve supported that one team for a long time. And as much as I’d love to see Isaiah Thomas back in Seattle, and dammit I want to care about Jeremy Lin, and how much of an idiot JR Smith, or a Dwight Howard trade, and so many other things I miss about being an NBA fan, it just wouldn’t be right. I mean, none of it is “right,” but taking the Kings feels way more not right than taking a variety of other teams. I’d hate to see the city of Sacramento stripped of their only show in town–as far as professional sports go–when there are other options available.

That said, if the Kings are up for relocation, I’d much rather see them in Seattle than Anaheim. The Kings may ultimately be the only option for Seattle, and it sure seems like a decision will be made on the Kings before Seattle has the option to explore a ton of other alternatives.  But my first option would, and always will be to leave the Kings in Sacramento, and to have another, less-supported team come to Seattle.

New Sounder Eddie Johnson

The offseason of change for the Seattle Sounders continued yesterday with the shocking trade of fan favorites Mike Fucito and Lamar Neagle to the Montreal Impact in exchange for 27 year old former US International Eddie Johnson.

The Sounders had a need for a consistent partner for Fredy Montero at forward, and the combination of Fucito, Sammy Ochoa, and Roger Levesque only had a total of seven MLS goals between them last season. Last year the Sounders had to count on goals coming from all over the field to make up for the lack of secondary production up top. While having that many scoring options at other positions is a real weapon, more goals from the forward position to go along with Montero’s 12 would undoubtedly be welcomed. Johnson’s record of scoring in the MLS and with the US National team mixed with a full season of Ochoa and the possible return of O’Brien White should help solve the problem.

From 2001 to 2007 Johnson scored 41 goals for FC Dallas and the Kansas City Wizards including his break out 15 goal season in 2007. After the 2007 season he signed with English Premiership team Fulham, but bounced around Europe on various loans for the next four years. His production abroad dropped sharply, but the Sounders are acquiring a player with a nose for the goal in MLS play and a guy coach Sigi Schmid thinks will be playing up top with Montero every week.

Unfortunately in order to acquire something you have to give something up, and GM Adrian Hanauer and Technical Director Chris Henderson made the tough decision to send the energetic Fucito and hometown hero Neagle to Montreal. Fucito is a player our fans love, and Montreal’s will too. He has a high motor, always outhustled and outworked defenders, and after a couple years watching Blaise N’kufo and Freddie Ljungberg mope around the field, the Sounders fans have become attached to the players that give us their full 90. There’s also something about seeing the little guy prevail over the big guys that the fans loved to see. Last year he started to deliver on a little of his promise, scoring two goals in MLS play and turning in a memorable two goal game in the CONCACAF Champions League.

The Sounders have a wealth of talent in the midfield and despite his seven goals and two assists in all three competitions last year, Neagle was going to struggle to find significant minutes this season. It’s safe to say that Osvaldo Alonso will be starting at the holding midfield spot, and with leading assist man Mauro Rosales on the right and the combination of Alvaro Fernandez and Steve Zakuani (after his May or June return) on the left, the only starting spot left would be the center attacking midfielder in Sigi’s diamond midfield formation. That position should be filled by Brad Evans (if he can stay healthy this season) and possibly newly acquired Christian Sivebæk.

Neagle is better suited to be a winger, and although depth is important due to how many games the team will play this year between the MLS schedule, the end of this CONCACAF tournament and the beginning of the next, and hopefully another repeat in the US Open Cup, the Sounders front office felt Johnson was worth trading some depth for.

For three years the Sounders had to take the approach that the Mariners and Seahawks are currently taking of building their depth and loading up on young players with potential to become real contributors down the road. Now that they have a solid starting eleven and enough depth to cover the injuries and match congestion that come in a season, the time to pull the trigger on this type of deal was now. This trade is a message from the top that the time to win is now, and giving up two young players while their trade value is high for a piece the team has coveted since its inception is the type of move that could pay huge dividends for the team if Johnson can manage at least ten goals and take some heat off of Montero.

Victor Sanchez, RHP, Did not pitch professionally in 2011

6-0, 185 lbs, 17 years old

Bats: Right, Throws: Right

Acquired: International Signing (2011)

ETA: 2016

Victor Sanchez was basically the top pitching prospect available in the international free agent market last year. He’s a guy who was a star in Venezuela at 12 years old, and who is able to hit 92 mph with his fastball, and already possesses an adequate curveball and a developing change. He’s far from a prototypical pitcher, as he’s short for the position presently, but at only 17 years old it’s not out of the question to think that Sanchez could grow a couple of inches before his major league debut. Sanchez signed for $2.5 million last year, so if you believe in the Mariners ability to scout international free agents, it’s worth noting that they must believe in Sanchez a lot to give him that kind of bonus. Hopefully Sanchez starts out in one of the domestic rookie leagues this year, that we can see how he pitches against higher competition. He’s still a long ways off though, and a lot can happen between now and when Sanchez makes his debut.

Potential (of 40): 38

Probability of Success (of 30): 5

Positional value (of 20): 17

Character (of 10): 10

OVERALL: 70

Roy Oswalt is worth as much as several acres of dilapidated swamp land that happens to be full of oil that may one day be mistakenly discovered. Seattle may be no Beverly Hills, though.

Roy Oswalt has been conspicuously absent from a major league roster this entire offseason, and it’s probably about time for him to consider coming to Seattle. The 34 year old right-hander came into the offseason with high hopes, and probably overshot the market. His desire for a three-year deal probably made several teams shy away, though he’s flirted with the Red Sox and Rangers, among other teams.

Oswalt may not seem like an ideal buy-low candidate for the Mariners, as his advanced age, handedness, and diminutive stature all play against the elements the Mariners are presently looking for in a typical free agent. However, like much of Oswalt’s career, he bucks all trends and scouting reports.

Coming off of a 2011 season that saw Oswalt miss several starts as a result of back problems, and the aftermath of tornadoes surrounding his home in Mississippi, Oswalt may appear on the downslope of his career. But It was the first season that Oswalt hasn’t made 30 starts since 2003, only the second time since the same year that he didn’t surpass 200 innings pitched, and he posted his lowest strikeout rate of his career (6.02 K/9).

Oswalt was still able to be effective though. He pitched 139.0 innings of 3.95 xFIP ball, and was good for 2.5 WAR over the course of an abbreviated workload. His xFIP- was 103, which means that his xFIP was three percent higher than league average. For his career Oswalt has out-resulted his xFIP, which may be, at least in part, attributed to his style of pitching.

chart from TexasLeaguers.com

Oswalt throws a large portion of high fastballs, which generally get turned into fly balls. Oswalt’s fly ball rates aren’t sky high, but despite that his infield fly rate for his career is about a percent above league average, which means that he’s about 10 percent better than league average in the category, and certainly a higher percentage of his fly balls were infield flies. Even last year, as decreased velocity may have sapped some of Oswalt’s strikeout numbers, the pitches that batters are now making contact with appear to be heading into infielders gloves, as his 14.4 percent infield fly rate indicates.

The big draw for the Mariners to sign Oswalt though, is that he actually has fared remarkably well against lefties for his entire career. Oswalt has posted a better xFIP against lefties (3.50) than against righties (3.64).

He strikes out lefties at a higher rate than righties:

www.fangraphs.com

Walks them at close to the same rate:

www.fangraphs.com

And he’s held lefties to a lower home run rate:

www.fangraphs.com

Oswalt has also yielded only a .124 ISO to lefties, against a .138 against righties. A really easy argument could be made that Oswalt has been better against lefties during his career than he has against righties. All of this is important of course, because Safeco Field plays near-neutral for left-handed pull hitters, but plays hell on righties.

Also—as previously mentioned—Oswalt’s results have been better than his peripherals throughout his career, and there is reason to believe that can continue. He’s been effective while pitching about a league average amount of fly balls, while generating an above average amount of missed bats. He’s done this, however, in two parks that allow a well-above-average amount of home runs in Houston and Philadelphia.

One can only project that Oswalt would benefit even more in the friendly confines of Safeco Field, where home runs and hitters of homeruns go to die long, lonesome deaths.

So what’s in it for Oswalt?

That really depends on what Oswalt wants at this point in his career. He appears to be looking for a team that is competitive. He also seems to want a multi-year contract. Seattle probably won’t offer him either of those things this year.

What they could offer him, however, is the ability to improve his stock. Safeco Field, to some extent, turned Cliff Lee into the $120 million man he is today. It turned Michael Pineda into a guy who could be traded for the best hitting prospect in baseball. It turned Erik Bedard into a guy who could be traded for anything besides cadaver tissue. Safeco Field helps pitchers. There’s no doubt about that.

But Oswalt is an odd bird. He talked about retiring at the end of his contract with Houston. He credits a jolt from his truck battery, not Dr. James Andrews or any other orthopedic-guru for curing his arm-health-woes. And he seems to be motivated by only the finest things in life, like bulldozers. (I wanted to link all those seperately, but when I went back to find the articles I read those in, I found that I’d read them all in this fantastic piece by Buster Olney, back when I was a subscriber)

Roy Oswalt may want absolutely nothing to do with Seattle. The Mariners are a victim of proximity quite often it seems. I mean, damn, the only real time the Mariners have had any proximity advantage has involved free agents from Japan: almost 1700 miles away.

I have a funny image in my mind of Jack Zduriencik meeting Oswalt at SeaTac Airport with Oswalt arriving in nothing but a straw hat, tattered overalls, and a stick with a bandana tied to it that carries Oswalt’s baseball glove and cleats. He’s not a natural fit in Seattle. Seattle is a long way from home.

Here’s my idea. Seattle offers Oswalt a $5 million guaranteed salary, a $15 million club option with about a $1 million buyout, and a partial no-trade clause. The option and no-trade clause give Oswalt some leverage when the Mariners invariably trade him at the deadline.

The small guaranteed salary isn’t set in stone. Oswalt is likely to be worth much more than that. But it is a reflection of the undeveloping market for the veteran starter.

He’d be able to leverage his option against teams on that no-trade clause. Frequently players with remaining contract options will negotiate for their new team to pick up that option, or negotiate some sort of that-year salary increase to waive both the option and the no-trade clause.

And about that whole playing for a contender thing: It’s pretty hard to figure out who will and won’t contend if you’re a free agent right now. The only teams that seem like true locks to win their divisions are the Phillies (who don’t seem incredibly interested in bringing Oswalt back) and the Tigers (who have spent about a billion dollars and a trillion prospects to be who they are today). If Oswalt had control over who he could be traded to, he could be a lot more sure that he got traded to a contender.

Besides, if this all goes wrong it could probably mean only two things: either Oswalt got injured (historically unlikely) or the Mariners were actually good—presumably with some considerable contribution by Oswalt—and the team can let Oswalt ride his tractor off into the sunset (after making him a qualifying offer under the new CBA rules, of course), while the team collects a few draft picks upon his departure.