Climate Change and Global Impacts

Later School Start Times

noreply@blogger.com (Nick McCabe) — Sun, 23 Apr 2017 22:54:00 +0000

The United States adolescent population, ages 15-19, represents only 7% of the total population. However, they also represent over 10 billion in motor vehicle accident cost, 11% of the total United States crash expenses. A leading cause of these teen accidents is due to sleep deprivation, a condition that affects nearly 75% of American adolescents. For the sake of this argument, sleep deprivation is defined not by the detrimental effects, but simply as less than the minimum necessary sleep per night: 8 hours. Both social and biologic pressures appear to cause a shift in sleep patterns during the transition to adolescence, pushing back sleeping and waking times. Yet this change does not coincide with the start times of the vast majority of high schools nationwide. A nationwide school implementation of an 8:30 start time would decrease teen driving accidents, increase adolescent sleep time, and is most importantly an achievable prospect.

A metropolitan county in western Kentucky underwent a late start study, including teen sleep data along with county and state teen driver accident rates. The study included data from 9,996 students, grades 6-12, with crash data of 17 and 18-year old drivers. In year 1, the county middle and high school start times were 7:30 and 8:00, respectively. In year 2, they were pushed back one hour, to 8:30 and 9:00. The crash and sleep data were recorded over 5 years; 2 years prior and post to the change. The data yielded a minimum average sleep increase of 12 minutes (grade 9) and a maximum of 30 (grade 12). The students also reported a significant increase in a nightly 8 hours, rising from 35.7% to 50.0%. This self-reported sleep increase corresponded with a countywide decrease in teen motor vehicle accidents. Prior to the change, for every 1000 teen drivers, there were roughly 270 accidents. With the late start, it dropped to just over 200. During this same time period, the state rose by 15. This data proves a direct relationship between a late start implementation and a decrease in crash rates. Adolescent driving accidents are extremely common and extremely harmful. The late start times address not only sleep time, but also the safety of the students.

A common concern with later start times is that students will also push their sleep time an hour later, consequently not benefiting from the change. Self-reported sleep time studies done in Minnesota and Arkansas disprove this opposition. According to the study done at the University of Minnesota, a school that starts at 8:30 (the recommended time by the American Academy of Pediatrics) will have 60% of their students getting the required 8 hours. This is a monumental jump from the nationwide average of only 25% of adolescents achieving this nightly goal. The reasoning behind the prediction is simple: the developing adolescent brain is more easily aligned with later rising than an earlier sleep start.

This nationwide epidemic of sleep disorders does not come without consequences. Chronic inadequate sleep is associated with poor academic performance, executive function impairments, mood and behavioral issues, as well as adverse health outcomes such as an increased risk of obesity, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease. The nationwide impact of these effects has been confirmed by 3 randomly selected Midwestern high schools. The study concluded that 91.9% of surveyed students did not achieve the required 8 hours, causing increased drowsiness during the day (93.7%), having difficulty paying attention (83.6%), lower grades (60.8%), increase in stress (59.0%), and having difficulty getting along with others (57.7%) However, the anonymous survey confirmed more than just sleep deprivation, revealing more serious repercussions. Many students undertook harmful actions in an effort to get more sleep: taking sleeping pills (6.0%), smoking a cigarette to relax (5.7%), and drinking alcohol in the evening (2.9%). Again proving that a late start implementation will increase student sleep time, but also increase safety.

With such extensive positive evidence, how do 42 of our nation’s states have 75% of schools starting earlier than 8:30? This lack of implementation is primarily due to the impact on the community. All late start opposition rests on the claim that the changes in parental schedules, child care arrangements, and extracurricular activities make a change impossible to achieve. Although I agree with the opposition up to a point, I cannot accept his overall conclusion that a change is impossible to implement. The first year of the change will face the most opposition and lack of benefits, because of the stress of moving schedules. After a difficult transition year, however, the restructured community will be more beneficial to their developing teen population. These conclusions coincide with the results of the aforementioned driving study. The study county crash rates increased during the transition year, but the average crash rates in the 2 years after the change in school start times reflect a significant decrease of 16.5% from the rates before the change.

Ultimately, what is at stake here is the development of the adolescent brain, along with the safety of those teens on the road. All United States schools have the responsibility to address the issue of student sleep deprivation, and can clearly do so with a later school start time.

Precipitation in Relation to Global Warming

noreply@blogger.com (Nick McCabe) — Mon, 06 Mar 2017 16:43:00 +0000

Despite my latest blog post, many individuals throughout the globe are unconvinced about the reality of global warming. This concern is summed up in a UCSUSA article, titled “It’s Cold and My Car is Buried in Snow. Is Global Warming Really Happening?” While yes, global warming is absolutely happening, I was intrigued by the topic of snowfall and low temperatures, evidence often turned to by many climate contrarians that question the scientific reality of human-induced climate change. With a rise in atmospheric CO2 levels, average temperature, and increased glacial melt, how are many parts of the globe receiving massive amounts of snowfall and bitterly cold temperatures? Six resorts in the continental US have already topped 200 inches of snow, with the snowiest month of March still to come. On the other side of the globe, the notorious powder mountain of Niseko, Japan, has received just under 400 inches (about 10 meters) from November to the present. So if global warming is as real as the statistics, how are we still getting this much snow? Furthermore, what will be global warming's effects on precipitation in the future?

Firstly, one needs to understand the difference between climate and weather. Weather is what’s happening outside the door right now, while climate, on the other hand, is the pattern of weather measured over decades. Global warming is significantly changing earth’s climate, even though it may not be making a visible difference to be our day to day weather. While the planet is getting warmer, seasons still occur due to our planet’s tilt. As the earth revolves around the sun, the tilt causes the northern and southern hemispheres to switch between being closer and farther to the sun. These varying distances change the temperatures and weather patterns more drastically than the greenhouse effect. This is why many areas of the globe, especially those at high altitude, are still receiving average to above average amounts of snow. The industrial revolution only began in the late 1700s, a mere 250 years ago in comparison to our ancient planet. The rise in CO2 levels and different environmental conditions simply haven’t had enough time to effect our ancient planet enough to stop all snowfall and make earth into an oven, conditions that some skeptics require in order to admit the reality of global warming. There are many more factors that change our earth’s weather patterns and overall climate. From the tropospheric polar jet stream to arctic sea ice, our planet’s weather is ever changing.

And while the effects of global warming may not be glaring, an overall analysis of our climate has exposed measurable differences. Global warming is actually causing more intense rain and snow storms. The hotter temperatures mean hotter air, which holds more moisture.This increased density causes more snow and rain to be available in heavy storms, but makes it harder for those storms to actually occur. The National Climate Assessment of 2014 found that the northeastern United States has undergone a 71% change in heavy participation since 1958. On the contrary to those that claim the more snow disproves global warming, in reality, it is confirmation. Furthermore, global warming is also causing warmer spring weather to arrive earlier than it used to. Overall, spring weather is already arriving 10 days earlier than it used to. In the Sierra Nevada, the onset of spring over the past decade has arrived 3 weeks earlier. While the warm temperature and humid air have provided explanations for the colder than average northeastern winter, the rest of the world endured the hottest year on record. A clear indicator of the reality of global warming.

Finally, I was intrigued by the potential effects of global warming on future snowfall and precipitation patterns. A major concern among our population is the effects of global warming on future generations. Within a study entitled “Dangerous Inheritance,” it is predicted that the united states and future generations will experience an increase of extreme weather in the coming decades. The storms may be less common, but will be more intense when they occur. Another ongoing change that doesn’t relate directly to precipitation is global sea level rise. The greenhouse gasses and arctic ice melt are accumulating to a current average of 0.14-inch sea level rise per year, threatening many sea level communities.

The leading evidence of global warming opposition is unseasonably cold temperature and increased precipitation. When analyzed, the increased precipitation is directly related to global warming, while scarce regions of cold do not outweigh the evidence of the hottest year on record. All of which providing another barrier to a very opinion based rebuttal. The effects on our warming planet may not be apparent in day to day weather, but will prove extreme, and have proven extreme, in relation to our global climate.

Climate Change

noreply@blogger.com (Nick McCabe) — Fri, 03 Feb 2017 16:31:00 +0000

Senator James Inhofe, the chairman of the Senate's Environment and Public Works Committee, took the Senate floor on February 26th, 2015, and disproved climate change once and for all. Well, maybe not, but he did give a passionate argument in an effort to disprove all the “eggheads” at “science laboratories” that were busy thinking about the global consequences of the greenhouse effect created by our mass carbon dioxide consumption. He brought up compelling arguments such as a picture of an igloo built by his daughter’s family, and even a snowball he had picked up from just outside the building, which he would later lob at the president of the Senate. All concluding to his main point that it is “unseasonably cold.” And while his points may have been presented in a fairly elementary fashion, he does represent one side of the argument. With opinions ranging from Sen. James Inhofe’s famous snowball speech to celebrity actor Leonardo Dicaprio addressing the importance of climate change in his best actor award speech, the topic needs some clarification. No more opinion based statements or fear-based claims, it’s time for a factual analysis of how we, as a human race, have already changed our planet, and how these actions will affect the direction of the planet hereafter. This analysis will answer the questions of earth’s cycle, and the impact of human actions on global warming.

Since the Industrial Revolution, atmospheric Carbon Dioxide levels are higher than they’ve been in over 400,000 years. Significantly higher. Prior to the year 1950, CO2 levels stayed below 300 ppm (parts per million), fluctuating between 150 and 300 ppm. From 1950 to the present, it’s risen to 400 ppm.

The earth has undergone 7 cycles in the past 650,000 years, with the end of the ice age 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the civilized era. The rise and fall of earth's temperature is a normal part of these cycles, and while the graph of atmospheric CO2 levels has taken a steep spike over the last 50 years, the temperature has stayed within the regular oscillation. While it is currently at a warm peak, that is simply because that was the environment most suitable for humankind and our evolution. Some may question that the lack of temperature spike along with the CO2 spike suggests that they don’t have as direct of a relationship as some suggest, which is disproved by the evidence of glacial melt and sea level rises. An average global temperature rise of only 0.5 degrees Celsius causes hundreds of miles of glacial melt. While glacial retreat is a normal part of every cycle, it has been accelerated by the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions. Global sea levels have risen 17cm in the past century, with the rate of change doubling over the past decade.

Clearly, while the earth has not veered off of its planetary cycle, human emissions are accelerating the process. NASA’s orbital satellites and years of research have determined that the average global temperature has increased by 0.8 degrees Celsius in the past century, with over two-thirds of the increase occurring since 1975. While NASA did not confirm themselves that it was due to human activity or natural variability, they provided a preponderance of evidence suggesting it’s humans. The natural variability of the past simply hasn’t jumped as much as it did since the Industrial Revolution, and that’s no coincidence. The human consumption of natural gasses leading to CO2 emissions has obviously spiked since the cultural shift of the Industrial Revolution, and the consequences have already begun to show their ugly head. The increased 100 parts per million of CO2 in our atmosphere have created a greenhouse effect. The sun’s radiation comes through our atmosphere, and about half of the energy is absorbed by the earth’s surface. The other half reflects and attempts to travel back through our atmosphere. However, some of the infrared radiation is absorbed and re-emitted by the greenhouse gas molecules.

But what will be the impact of these increases? While the facts seem extreme, are they really enough to make a significant impact on our 4.5 billion-year-old planet? These questions can’t be answered for certain, but many predictions are being made. One of these predictions comes from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which includes over 1,300 scientists from the United States and other countries. They have predicted a 2.5 to 10 degree (Fahrenheit) temp increase over the next century. The consequences of this increase will vary regionally, but they foresee some broad future effects. These include a continual temperature rise, a longer growing season, changes in precipitation patterns, more droughts and heat waves, stronger hurricanes, a 1-4ft ocean level rise, and a potential ice-free arctic. Clearly, the impacts will be severe. They will occur over a large time-frame for our generation, but a minute frame in the context of the planet’s past. This is not an immediate cause for panic. It will impact different regions of the globe in different ways, some beneficial and some harmful. But either way, things are going to change.

Global warming is real. Whether human influenced or not, it’s happening. With 97% of scientists in agreement that Earth is in fact warming, it is getting harder and harder to form a reasonable opposing argument. Now we are faced with only questions about the impact of the warming itself and what steps to take for the benefit of future generations. While we’re already passing on the national debt, we can hope to be passing on a planet where we have the luxury of such worries.