Niraj's blog

The Road Not taken

2012-01-02T22:32:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year dear visitor! May the new year bring lots of happiness in your life. Below I produce my favorite poem from Robert Frost, The Road not Taken!

The Road Not Taken
--Robert Frost
TWO roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;

Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,

And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.

Sunshine

2011-07-02T22:00:00.000-07:00

May the sun bring you new energy by day,
May the moon softly restore you by night,
May the rain wash away your worries
And the breeze blow new strength into your being,
And all the days of your life may you walk
Gently through the world and know its beauty

--- Apache Blessing

Nature has this unique gift- it helps us rejuvenate, re-energize and bring balance in life. The picture attached is one I took at the UBC Botanical , Garden- it has a good collection of lush green trees and plants. I found myself lost in the nature, the tress, some of them 700-800 years old... they must have seen the good , the bad , the ugly ( forest fire, storms) in their life and they are still standing tall-suddenly my problems in life start looking too small :-)

Serendipity, creative thinking, friendship!

2011-06-20T23:06:00.000-07:00

Do you believe in serendipity? I do. Many important inventions and discoveries may never have happened if it was not for chance events. Insulin, Penicillin, X-rays, Allergens were all accidentally discovered. Here is an article which lists some of these. An open mind is needed to capitalize on these chance events- as the American physicist Joseph Henry once noted, "The seeds of great discoveries are constantly floating around us, but they only take root in minds well prepared to receive them."

Here is a blog post on CNN that talks about randomness. New ideas require some down time, some coming off the grind- many researchers see creative thinking as a four-step process: preparation, incubation, illumination and verification or revision.”Incubation is “the ‘mystical’ step,” one in which both the conscious mind and the subconscious mull over the problem in hard-to-define ways.” Hard to define, yes, but not hard to foster, as long as chunks of the day or the week are left open for relatively random activity: long walks, surfing the Internet, browsing a bookstore, household chores that don’t require too much thought, watching the birds at the birdfeeder and gazing out at the ocean."

Here is another great reference to serendipity discoveries , a blog post on Harvard Business Review- apparently the Post it Note, Viagra, Nylon, Aspirin, tech behind Ink Jet printers were all chance events!

The lesson- don't restrict yourself to the tried and tested- go explore the world, venture out little bit, take risks...the possibilities are immense! Something somewhere is waiting to be discovered, that distant person you never thought you could be friends with, may turn out to be the best thing that ever happened to you, go ahead extend that hand of friendship! Most of my friends today are a result of serendipity, and hence I am a firm believer :-)

Infectious diseases - microorganisms

2011-04-30T00:09:00.000-07:00

Last weekend I worked in my garden now that spring is here. Of course nothing unusual about that, but what was unusual was that I picked mild temperature (99) and some body-ache the next day. This being the Easter weekend, thankfully I had plenty of time to sleep all day off, again very unusual for me to sleep during the day like that. I ended up seeing the doctor and getting some antibiotics...can't really afford staying away from work for very long!

This little tryst with a microorganism (bacteria) got me thinking, one day of sickness and I already feel behind on some of my pending tasks, how about millions others who die every year because of bacterial infections. Despite it being such a big killer and more so of infants (0 to 5 years), people know very little about this dreaded microorganism. So this week I did some research and tried to understand all the microorganisms which threaten humans- bacteria, virus, fungus, parasites and protozoa. I read about the progress we have made in the last 200 years and the challenges which still lie ahead. The developing countries are worse off, per one stat 50% child mortality could be avoided just by proper vaccination, the defense is there but people are too poor to be able to afford it.

I chose engineering line as my career, but sometime I think the work in medicine may have been more fulfilling. There are still many things unknown in this world. The bacterias mutate, the virus mutates, and the medicine which worked earlier is no longer effective. No doubt we have made important progress, like we have mapped some key bacterial gnomes, we have vaccination, we have antibiotics but the task is still far from over. It takes too long to come up with a vaccination once new strains of virus or bacteria are identified. We could definitely do better. Now I can't be a doctor , too late for me, but I am going to try my best to do my part in disseminating the available information.

I will work on spreading awareness about these dangerous microorganisms and the precautions we can take to avoid their wrath. In the medical community it is said that Prevention is better than Prescription or Procedure(surgery). Till such time we map the gnome of these deadly microorganisms completely and have an antidote, let us make all out effort to steer clear of them- prevent it from happening in the first place. Here are some of the suggestions I have read- wash your hand, use hand hand sanitizer, cover your mouth when you sneeze or cough, eat antioxidants, get good sleep, exercise, eat healthy diet, stay up to date on vaccinations, take annual flu shot etc. You can read some more from this link courtesy WebMd.

Here's hoping you a very healthy life , let us take care of ourselves and enjoy the little pleasures of life! You have so many more milestones left in life, some small some big- like enjoying the morning sun on a beach, watching your near and dear ones grow, run a marathon...go get your vaccination, stick around :-)

America's 10 most popular drugs

2011-04-23T00:19:00.000-07:00

Came across this article at Times, it has stats on the 10 most popular drugs in America. The numbers confirmed what I mostly knew already, the usual culprits are all there- the blood pressure related, the cholesterol related, the sugar related, the chronic pain related and of course the antibiotics. Using the stats around prescription drug usage, one can find the common diseases and hence take action to avoid them. Here's wishing you a healthy life for years to come and may these drugs never be part of your life :-)

10. Hydrochlorothiazide (HydroDIURIL)
Type of drug: diuretic (water pill)
Used to treat: high blood pressure
Number of prescriptions in 2010: 47.8 million
Number of prescriptions in 2009: 47.9 million

The tenth most popular drug treats high blood pressure, one of the major risk factors for heart disease and stroke. About 1 in 3 American adults currently have high blood pressure, which is more common among older adults, the overweight or obese, people with a family history, smokers, people who don't exercise and African Americans.

9. Metformin HCL (Glucophage)
Type of drug: anti-diabetic
Used to treat: diabetes
Number of prescriptions in 2010: 48.3 million
Number of prescriptions in 2009: 44.3 million

Type 2 diabetes, the kind linked with obesity, affects 25.8 million Americans, or about 8% of the total population, and an estimated 7 million people are undiagnosed. What's more, 79 million people are estimated to have a condition called pre-diabetes, in which patients have impaired glucose tolerance and are at high risk for developing diabetes. In 2010, 1.9 million new cases of diabetes were diagnosed in people aged 20 years and older, according to the American Diabetes Association. Metformin is commonly used to control blood sugar in diabetes patients.

Also came across this blog which has a lot of information about this dangerous disease.

8. Amoxicillin (Amoxil)
Type of drug: antibiotic
Used to treat: bacterial infections
Number of prescriptions in 2010: 52.3 million
Number of prescriptions in 2009: 52.4 million

Antibiotics can be used to treat infections of the nose, throat, skin and urinary tract — but they cannot cure colds or flu, which are caused by viruses. Nonetheless, millions of prescriptions are written to try to treat these illnesses — improper use that is contributing to the increasing problem of antibiotic resistance.

7. Azithromycin (Zithromax)
Type of drug: antibiotic
Used to treat: bacterial infections
Number of prescriptions in 2010: 52.6 million
Number of prescriptions in 2009: 53.8 million

Like amoxicillin, azithromycin is used to treat common bacterial infections, including lung infections and some sexually transmitted infections.

6. Omeprazole (Prilosec)
Type of drug: proton pump inhibitor
Used to treat: acid reflux
Number of prescriptions in 2010: 53.4 million
Number of prescriptions in 2009: 45.4 million

About 20% of Americans suffer from stomach pain and burning related to acid reflux at least once a week, resulting in the popularity of Prilosec. Risk factors for acid reflux include obesity and cigarette smoking.

Read more: http://healthland.time.com/2011/04/19/americas-10-most-popular-prescription-drugs/#ixzz1KKTgH82U

5. Amlodipine besylate (Norvasc)
Type of drug: calcium channel blocker
Used to treat: high blood pressure
Number of prescriptions in 2010: 57.2 million
Number of prescriptions in 2009: 51.3 million

The risk of developing high blood pressure increases with age, affecting about two-thirds of people over 60 (note: the oldest of the country's 77 million Baby Boomers are turning 65 this year) — one reason that blood-pressure medications make up three of the top 10 most prescribed drugs.

4. Levothyroxine sodium (Synthroid)
Type of drug: thyroid hormone
Used to treat: low-functioning thyroid gland
Number of prescriptions in 2010: 70.5 million
Number of prescriptions in 2009: 66 million

A common cause of low thyroid hormones, primary hypothyroidism affects 9% of women and 1% of men. Symptoms include slow speech, lack of energy, weight gain, hair loss, increased sensitivity to cold, and dry, thick skin. The risk of hypothyroidism increases with age, which accounts in part for the increasing number of prescriptions written.

3. Lisinopril (Prinivil)
Type of drug: ACE inhibitor
Used to treat: high blood pressure
Number of prescriptions in 2010: 87.4 million
Number of prescriptions in 2009: 82.8 million

Out-of-control stress contributes to high blood pressure, which helps explain why the condition may be more common in the poor and in people whose jobs have high levels of responsibility but little control over outcomes.

2. Simvastatin (Zocor)
Type of drug: statin
Used to treat: high cholesterol
Number of prescriptions in 2010: 94.1 million
Number of prescriptions in 2009: 83.8 million

Nearly 36 million Americans have high cholesterol levels, high enough to more than double their risk of heart disease and stroke — and to keep rates of prescriptions for cholesterol-lowering statins sky high.

1. Hydrocodone with acetaminophen (Vicodin)
Type of drug: opioid
Used to treat: pain
Number of prescriptions in 2010: 131.2 million
Number of prescriptions in 2009: 128.2 million

Vicodin is prescribed to treat chronic pain, which affects 20% to 30% of adults and is twice as common in women as in men. The pill is also commonly prescribed to treat pain following dental procedures. Though drug misuse may account for part of the reason that hydrocodone is so popular, fewer than 3% of people prescribed opioids for chronic pain actually develop new addictions.

Read this far, good! You are serious about your health, I am sure these drugs in your life would be as rare as the black swan pictured above!

Metaphors in life ( and trading)

2011-04-15T23:05:00.000-07:00

Do you use metaphors in life? I have found them useful.These are like the crutches which help me navigate the complexities of life. One of my favorite one being- life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass, it's about dancing in the rain! Or this one- life is what happens to us while we are making other plans!

Why am I talking metaphors today, well because this is all about conditioning the mind to operate in the zone, the state of perfection! I trade the financial markets, which are very competitive in nature, nothing less than perfection will do in this business! The mind over market concept is now formally studied as part of behavioral finance, the psychology of the trader. The mentors, I have come to respect in this industry, all tell me that trading is one third psychology, one third execution and one third setups. So if i just mastered the charts alone, it is just one third of the battle:-)

I was researching how people in the financial market community use metaphors in life. I came across psychologist Ruth Barrons Roosevelt article
"I like to think of trading as sailing. Here you harness the forces that are there. You take into account the wind direction and velocity, the currents, and your destination. You've got your charts to guide you and you constantly adjust to nature's forces, sometimes pointing into the wind, sometimes running before the wind, sometimes tacking, but always in partnership with your boat, your crew, the wind, and the currents. Sure, storms can come up, but you can always let down the sail and anchor and wait out the storm. You work with the forces that are there, the forces that are much bigger than you, but you enjoy the journey, the day, the sport, and you're confident you can get to your destination, your port, your safe harbor."

Of course some people compare trading to fishing where the patience is the key element people are trying to focus on. Some compare trading to a sniper, or a pray -predator relationship. Look for the opportunity and jump on it, no room for error. It all depends on ones mental makeup which one you like more, obviously the aggressive types will prefer the pray predator metaphor, but the same metaphor may have negative connotation to the conservative mindset traders( BTW the picture above is of a lioness I captured in my Nikon DSLR, look at the intense eyes, that kind of focus and intensity is what you need, if you believe in the pray-predator metaphor).

I like the sailing analogy to trading that Ms. Ruth provided, to me trading is a complex endeavor, and sailing is apt representation, the winds - if you get tailwinds that is, will make for a soaring bottom line, on the other hand if you have headwinds...well you need to learn to deal with that too, else the boat sinks :-) So what are the metaphors you use in your life or work:-)

What season is this?

2011-02-28T22:32:00.000-08:00

This has been a strange winter, the more I think the winter days are over, the more I get a gentle reminder- few more days my dear! Some more days of clouds, little less of sun shine, the frosty mornings and the occasional light and beautiful white snow..as if the world has been painted white, pure, pristine.... who can say no to that! The picture above is part of my backyard and that tiny hint of snow is what I am talking about...ever so gentler, kinder, softer snow..the one you don't have to worry about getting to work or clearing the driveway.

Although winter has over stayed and in some cities on the west coast totally surprised their residents (San Francisco recently had its first snow in 35 years)- I am not complaining!These things of nature make me emotional at times, recently read a poem by Mary Frye, normally read during funerals, talks about how our near ones never leave us even when they die- they are in gush of wind that touches us, the snow that falls on our garden, the birds that chirp...here it is and do not get too sentimental :)

Do not stand at my grave and weep,
I am not there, I do not sleep.
I am in a thousand winds that blow,
I am the softly falling snow.
I am the gentle showers of rain,
I am the fields of ripening grain.
I am in the morning hush,
I am in the graceful rush
Of beautiful birds in circling flight,
I am the starshine of the night.
I am in the flowers that bloom,
I am in a quiet room.
I am in the birds that sing,
I am in each lovely thing.
Do not stand at my grave bereft
I am not there. I have not left

Happy New Year

2011-01-23T22:03:00.000-08:00

New year is here and I hope this year brings in the change we always look for and which always seems to fall short..the new year is like a clean slate , we can make this year into whatever we would like it to be- good , bad, ugly..err not ugly, I hope! So let us do our very best and work towards this year being the most productive year of our life!! I know that is going to be my resolution! I plan to outdo myself...try hard even if it means going to the brink , to the precipice..and hopefully not fall off the cliff trying :-)

With that bit of optimism, here's something I want to share ( with permission from author)- this is from a dear friend of mine, who happens to be my classmate from IIT Kanpur, and who is a senior executive in a Technology firm might I add :-) We fondly call him Ramki.

Ramki this is dedicated to you!!

[In the spirit of re-living the lost pleasure of writing letters, minus the handwriting]

To,

A few more tears of happiness listening to soulful music,
A little more tiredness as you work yourself towards a worthy goal,
A few more thoughts towards the plight of the less fortunate,
A little less annoyance at the machinations of the keepers of power,
A few more hearty conversations with your best friends(for life),
A lighter load of worries of the past and anxieties for the future,
An increased zest in the service of those whom you love unconditionally,
An increased responsibility towards the world which made you,

From,

The blessings of those who helped you be what you are, and
The company of those who truly make you live your life to the fullest,

Subject: to the best of health, happiness and fun,

Dear Sir/Madam,

I humbly request your New Year visit you, and stay all year long!

as ever,
Ramki

2010 in Rear View

2010-12-24T06:38:00.000-08:00

As the year 2010 draws to a close, lets see how am I going to remember this year. I want to document this because days will turn into months and months will turn into years and I can open up my diary and look back on the concluding year of the first decade in 21st century!

I will divide this post in couple of headers- Political, Economics, Finance, Technological, Entertainment, Geo Political and Climate. So let us get started:

Political- This was the year when we saw Obama slipping in approval ratings, Democrats losing Congress and the emergence of Tea Party in the national politics. What it means is , although Obama has done commendable work in dealing with this great recession, people in general are disillusioned with the pace of progress, particularly with unemployment still at 9.8%. Clearly Mr. Obama needs to get his act together and work with a vigor if he wants to get reelected in 2012 and seems like White House has already started a major overhaul in its administration.

Economics- This was the year which added a new word to our daily vocabulary - QE2 or the second coming of Quantitative Easing. So far it seems to have worked, as the stock markets close near 2 year highs. Does that mean economy is out of the wood? Not by a far shot, the unemployment is still close to 10%, the seven million jobs lost in recession have not been recovered and are probably not going to come back in near future either, the GDP although growing, it is pretty anemic like 1%. Corporate profit has registered some 20% year over year gain this year , but the outlook for 2011 is still murky. The deficit is only ballooning and with the recent extension of Bush era tax cuts, is only set to get worst. The extension of tax cut at a price tag of whopping $858 billion, although looks good short term, seems more like a sign of desperation in the fiscal policy think tank of the country.

Finance- This has been a crazy year for the markets and I would think the feds QE2 policy may have played a role. Here are some numbers in terms of price increases we saw this year(Source FT.com).
Silver : 72%, Gold:28%, Crude Oil:22%, Corn:52%, Wheat 48%, Cotton- 103%, Lumber- 46%, Coffee- 60%...the list goes on. Although the readers of this blog know that I am a Gold bull for a long time, but this rapid price increase in essential commodities is really worrying trends for the common man. I hope in 2011 Central Bankers around the world will stay guard for inflation to rear its ugly head.

Technology- Of course Mark Zuckerberg got Person of the Year recognition from Time magazine for his obscenely successful brainchild Facebook. The other notable trends are Cloud Computing really becoming main stream.Ebay, US department of Agriculture and other such big entities have moved to cloud services, picking Microsoft's Azure as platform of choice. Read somewhere that the US Government is planning to consolidate its 800 data centers and moving to cloud. The iPad form Apple marked the arrival of tablets in a big way and the Smart Phone adoption continued its surge.

Entertainment- We broke some records this year in Hollywood and also the gaming industry. The epic tale "Avatar" really blew me away with its grandeur , extravaganza and the message itself by director James Cameron. I had truly never seen a movie quite like that in my life, the money spent on 3D IMAX seemed quite worth it. I later picked the Blue Ray disc as well just to find out what the Director had to say about his experiences making this film. There is something about these extraordinary successes, and it all starts with great thinking and here's a quote from the genius Cameron himself "If you set your goals ridiculously high and it's a failure, you will fail above everyone else's successes". Avatar has been the biggest grossing movie ever, with $4 billion in revenue and counting.The other notable success of the year was the video game- Call of Duty, black Ops, this may have set a new record in gaming too, with total sales already crossing the billion dollar mark!

Geo Political The year is closing with tension between North Korea and South Korea, we need to see what is in store for 2011. This year was also notable for leaking of sensitive US government document by Wikileaks. The founder of Wikileaks , Julian Assange , was the most popular choice for becoming person of the year online poll by Time magazine, he ended up becoming the runner up. The leaks have created embarrassing situation for US government which now has some explaining to do to its partner countries....and i know that's an understatement...there's lot more to it, probably deserves a separate blog post in itself.

Climate This year we saw devastating flooding in Pakistan, and the catastrophe in Haiti by the 7.0 magnitude earth quake which killed some quarter million people in minutes. Lessons, humans are but at the mercy of mother nature...let's take good care of it otherwise the day of reckoning is not far away :-(

Watch your thoughts...

2010-11-28T22:35:00.000-08:00

Came across the following few lines, epiphany of sort..for me anyways.

Watch your thoughts, for they become words
Watch your words, for they become actions
Watch your actions, for they become habits
Watch your habits, for they become character
Watch your character, for it becomes your destiny

Author Unknown.

Character is not built overnight, it is a long arduous journey, it is going to test you on many occasions and sometime it could be tempting to dump it...but should we ever? My answer is no,,, when the going gets tough , the tough get going. You beat the odds by perseverance, you beat the odds by tenacity and above all you beat the odds by following a good plan. I am a Project Manager and one of the basic thing you learn in Project Management is the mantra of -Plan, Execute, Control and Review. I for one do not believe in cutting corners, taking shortcuts, deceiving people, resorting to lies...I find my self sleeping peacefully at night when I follow these principles. As a certified Project Manager (my PMP designation) , I am bound by ethics, I can lose my designation for being dishonest...get it, for me it is not just a moral obligation it is how I make a living!

Given the preponderance of evidence in support of good character, is it any surprise that the above quote resonated deep inside me? Yeah I know that is a rhetorical question, but I mean it in all its seriousness and as the opening line of above quote tells you...it all starts with your thoughts. So let us make a pledge to cleanse our thoughts of the negatives, purge the defeatism, the pessimism and build a strong character!

This post is dedicated to all my friends and well wishers who have stood by me all these years... thank you :-)

The Starfish Story

2010-11-06T13:33:00.000-07:00

Have you heard about the Starfish story? I came across it recently. Although unaware of the story per se, I have unconsciously done this all my life.... trying my bit...however small......
Here's the story by Loren Eisley:

Once upon a time, there was a wise man who used to go to the ocean to do his writing. He had a habit of walking on the beach before he began his work.

One day, as he was walking along the shore, he looked down the beach and saw a human figure moving like a dancer. He smiled to himself at the thought of someone who would dance to the day, and so, he walked faster to catch up.

As he got closer, he noticed that the figure was that of a young man, and that what he was doing was not dancing at all. The young man was reaching down to the shore, picking up small objects, and throwing them into the ocean.

He came closer still and called out "Good morning! May I ask what it is that you are doing?"

The young man paused, looked up, and replied "Throwing starfish into the ocean."

"I must ask, then, why are you throwing starfish into the ocean?" asked the somewhat startled wise man.

To this, the young man replied, "The sun is up and the tide is going out. If I don't throw them in, they'll die."

Upon hearing this, the wise man commented, "But, young man, do you not realize that there are miles and miles of beach and there are starfish all along every mile? You can't possibly make a difference!"

At this, the young man bent down, picked up yet another starfish, and threw it into the ocean. As it met the water, he said, "It made a difference for that one."

The story left me shocked..initially and then it sank in. Just like the wise man, we think high about ourselves...even narcissistic sometimes...all talk about doing good and believing in this cause , that cause ... but a lot of time it is just that...mere talks- we the arm chair philosophers!

Greatness is not in having opinion, true greatness lies in doing something. Greatness lies not in talking the talk but walking the talk. Helping someone, making a difference..even if for very few. Let me leave you with this thought...how many people you think you have helped in your life and made a difference? When you think of success, I urge you to assess yourself in that matrix :-)

The Indian Penal Code - 150 years!

2010-10-31T11:18:00.000-07:00

A dear friend of mine, a classmate from IIT Kanpur, who is a very senior official in the Indian Police Service (IPS), notified us of the Indian Penal Code celebrating its 150th year! Shame on me, I didn't know that! Here's the article he published- in case you wanted to know more about IPC, the back bone of the Indian criminal justice system!

Amitabh Thakur, IPS, the author of this article is on a study leave these days at IIM, Lucknow, India- one of the best business schools in that part of the world! I hope super cops like him continue to inspire the current generation Indians and work towards unity and integrity of the resurgent India! Hats off to you Amitabh!!
(Published by permission from Amitabh)

Sate of the market- QE2

2010-10-30T19:35:00.000-07:00

Continuing on the theme of fall colors, the above picture is from my garden too. Maple leaves falling off from that little thing I planted over five years ago. That little thing ( the maple tree) has now grown over 10 feet :-)

I wanted to touch on the state of the market as we close the month of October. The last two months have been a very strange market. despite watching this market every single day the last 10 years, I could not put my finger on its pulse. Of course if anything I have learned all these years , it is that, expect the unexpected :-)
Normally when bonds rally, when Yen rallies one concludes that there is risk aversion in the air and you would expect a sideways to down equity market, a contracting commodities market. The last two months have been anything but normal, every thing has rallied in sync, the correlation that existed the last few years seems to have all turned upside down.

I have looked for what the pundits are saying in terms of explaining these moves. One answer the QE2 ( Quantitative Easing 2) program which the feds are supposedly going to launch first week of November...although no one knows for sure...yours truly included. Why on earth fed will do quantitative easing when the last easing has not helped much. Doesn't the fed run the risk of stoking inflation if they did that? In my criticism, I guess I am being moderate , the bond guru Bill Gross has taken it a step further and calls it a Ponzi scheme.

I don't think this weird market can continue for very long. Something gotta give- either the bonds are going to sell off hard ( which they have already started with a recent 35 basis jump in yields) or Gold, Silver and the likes are going to come crashing down. In the meanwhile, this liquidity driven market has one clear victim- USD is selling off across the board, here are some of the popular currency pairs:

Euro has been flirting with 1.40 , from a recent low of 1.18 ( April 2010)
GBP is above 1.60 compared to a recent low of 1.44 ( April 2010)
CAD ( Canadian Dollar), AUD (Australian dollar)- almost at par with USD (99.9) , compared to in 80s (AUD) and 90s(CAD) back in April. Even slightest of move in the market, and these currencies will overtake USD.
CHF (Swiss Franc) - new all time high: 1.06 from .9 something back in April ( so it has actually overtaken USD).
Japanese Yen -new 15 year high at 80.35 from 90 something back in April ( within striking distance of 79.70- the all time high for this pair).

Precious metals are also on fire
Gold at life time high near $1375 /oz from $1100/oz in April ( not adjusted for inflation).
Silver at life time high $24/oz from $19/oz in April ( not adjusted for inflation).

Other metals like Copper, Iron, Zinc are all in steep bull run.
Agricultural commodities like Wheat , Rice, Sugar, Soybean, Corn are all breaking to new highs ( wheat has jumped 46% since June).

Given the deficit US is running, these macro moves are not unexpected, what worries me is the speed with which these moves are unfolding. A real threat of stagflation- where there is inflation (even hyperinflation), but no growth in real wages or economy to support it. All these forces have been unleashed on the financial markets, thanks to the speculation of QE2 which is now priced in the market. I am not sure if fed ( Federal reserve) will really follow through with its (implied) promise for QE2, it all seems to be setting up for a big disappointment. Meanwhile we are in uncharted territory... with uncontrolled forces unleashed in the markets...time for a new normal.

A long break!!!

2010-10-30T18:08:00.000-07:00

I took a long break from blogging! This was not planned, this was not pre meditated...it just happened, that thing called life! Sometime it just overwhelms you and the things you love to do like writing..takes a back seat! I am not necessarily happy about it, but hey this too will pass and I will return to a more normal self!!

The picture above is how my garden has turned this fall. There is something about this season, when leaves change colors and then eventually start to fall off- ready to renew...a new beginning..kinda how I feel today :-)

The Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill

2010-05-16T10:58:00.000-07:00

I am sure most of you have heard about the recent environmental disaster, the oil spill in Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Louisiana. Recently Obama administration has announced more offshore drilling plans to help ease the energy short fall. That was before this massive oil spill, hopefully we can draw some lessons from this disaster and it stops us right in our tracks. a soul- searching is required before we approve any new drilling in these gifts of nature,our great oceans- is it worth the risk..bringing the whole ecosystem to a stop? Does it make sense to endanger the fine nature's balance for our short term gain? Risk the very viability of this planet earth.

It is an ancient saying- "we do not inherit the earth from our ancestors we borrow it from our children". I wish the short thinking politicians realize this and do the right things like cutting green house gas emissions, stop polluting the oceans, stop massive deforestation and so on. The need of the time is a green economy which not only helps mother earth but creates new jobs. I do want to point out that not all politicians think short term, I recently attended Pan IIT 2009 conference in Chicago and President Bill Clinton was the keynote speaker. I took the privilege of being in audience with ex president under the watchful eyes of Secret Service agents :-)He made a good case for green economy and how to help poor countries meet their energy needs in a sustainable way which also creates jobs for the poor. Here is a link to President Clinton's non profit spearheading this movement. I also heard this Bill Gates presentation at Ted conference on reducing our carbon foot print. It is somewhat lengthy video but I think watching it is well worth your time coming straight from the richest man on the earth. The guy knows a thing or two about making money :-)

What is Success?

2010-04-16T09:28:00.000-07:00

You may have heard the popular saying- nothing succeeds like success. In other words success triggers a positive feedback loop which builds on itself. Similarly a failure can lead to a negative feedback loop resulting in a downward spiral.

Both Success and Failure need to be handled carefully. Success can go to ones head sometime and the person loses objectivity, gets complacent and eventually that success is negated. Similarly failure can be used as a learning opportunity. Of course Thomas Edison, the scientist to who we owe the invention of light bulb and numerous other things, once said "I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." As you can see failure is sometime the best thing that ever happens, it opens the path for future success. It is ok to make mistake as long as we get back up and start moving again.

Here's something that I stumbled upon during a recent business trip to Seattle. Nicely framed on the wall as an inspirational artwork, this is a poem on success from a poet by name Ralph Waldo Emerson, it goes something like this:

Success

To laugh often and much
to win the respect of intelligent people
and the affection of children;
to earn the appreciation of honest critics
and endure the betrayal of false friends;
to appreciate beauty;
to find the best in others;
to leave the world a bit better,
whether by a healthy child,
a garden patch
or a redeemed social condition;
to know even one life has breathed easier
because you have lived.
This is to have succeeded.

There you have it, now you know on success as much as I do :-) I found the poem true to the spirit of success, and hopefully I can use this in future as a guide post whenever a moral dilemma shows up. May god grant me the wisdom to distinguish between morally right from wrong. I am not infallible, I am human and sometime those distinctions will get blurred, and I am going to need a higher power to show me the enlightened path..Amen!!

Behavioral finance

2010-03-16T10:16:00.000-07:00

I wanted to touch upon a subject I spend a lot of time reading. This is called behavioral finance. Now the followers of Efficient Market Hypothesis do not believe in behavioral finance, per them market is a self correcting mechanism and any price anomaly in market due to behavioral aspects of market players is corrected immediately. I obviously belong to the Behavioral Finance club and firmly believe that markets are driven by two fundamental human behavior- fear and greed.

These two human trait lead to herd like behavior between market players, which has not changed over a million years of human evolution. The rational behavior is soon overtaken by irrational behavior of greed and fear. Many financial bubbles in the history are a result of these traits- be it the dutch Tulip bubble of 1624 or the 1929 stock bubble of America or the 2000 dot com bubble of NASDAQ or the very recent 2008 bubble of real estate. No rational behavior can explain the ridiculous price extreme that these bubble era experienced and then the subsequent collapse.

I wouldn't be able to do justice to this topic unless I also delve little deeper and introduce the concepts of heuristics, anchoring, frame dependence as it applies to behavioral finance.Heuristics is pretyty common in investors and I have myself fallen into this triap more than I would liek to admit :-)heuristic implies resorting to some kind of gut feeling for what the prices should be, in other words shortcuts are taken on the asset valuations one comes to a quick conclusion, conclusion that confirms our bias, aptly called confirmation bias. The fear and greed also comes in play, one gets greedy and therefore impatient to join the perceived rally or fearful of a price correction and dump the position prematurely.

Some other words you would hear in the area are - "anchoring", "frame dependence", "Get evenitis". It is important for the investors to understand the implication of these human foibles ...because it is not one rational person who makes the market but the humans predisposed in our evolution towards fear and greed who collectively move the market. if one wants to survive these turbulent markets a through understanding of these human instincts is a must.

if I have raised sufficient interest in you to know more about this subject, may i recommend you two books by people considered authority in this field.

1) Beyond Greed and Fear by Hersh Shefrin and
2) Irrational Exuberance by Robert Shiller.

Enjoy the read and happy safe investing! Remember the words of famous investor and one of my role models- George Soros - "The worse a situation becomes the less it takes to turn it around, the bigger the upside." and then the words of legendary Warren Buffet and the second richest man on earth- "be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful". Hmmm...point noted Mr Buffet!!!

Personal Excellence in life!!

2010-02-24T21:40:00.000-08:00

Vancouver these days is gripped with Winter Olympics 2010 fever. I took time out to visit the Olympic grounds and had the opportunity to take the Olympic torch in hand- thanks to some generous players who let the public touch and feel it :-)

When you see a game like Olympics what comes to your mind: Personal Excellence- years of training, perseverance and endurance are all put to the test. The sportsman has to be "in the zone", what is called the "peak performance", "now or never" type mindset. I was listening to the summer Olympic swimming gold winner -Michael Phelps who broke all sorts of record and created history by winning 8 Gold medals- his words "take it one game at a time". The words stayed with me- bigger goals have to be broken into smaller ones and a picture perfect execution is required all along the way. It is very important to have a game plan in mind and then take all the games seriously.

One game at a time, treat it as a marathon and not a sprint, consistency is the key, no cutting corner will work here.This is what peak performance is all about, to try to do your very best whenever occasion demands, there is room for zero unforced errors, iron clad discipline, concentration and so much more. When a player fails to do all this , he is said to be not in "form" and makes silly mistakes, overwhelmed and quickly defeated in the competition.

There is a great deal one can learn from these players. Actually not just sports, there are many areas where personal excellence comes into play - film actors, musicians, singers, movie directors, media personality- these type of people are institution in themselves. Take for example Tiger Woods, up until his sudden fall from grace, he was the unequivocal symbol of success- peak performance, discipline. Billion dollar companies signed him up to be their brand ambassador including Accenture, Nike etc.

You are probably also aware of the moving story of Joannie Rochette, who won a bronze in 2010Olympics in figure skating just four days after her mother died of heart attack. My thought goes out to her and her family. Normally it is not easy to overcome such grief and compete in any kind of endeavor. One is well advised to back off and come back again after they have had a chance to overcome their grief( although can anyone truly overcome loss of a loved one?). Read her story here, and here is a direct quote from the article "figure skating is not a sport that takes kindly to emotion. Skaters must bottle up their nerves, their fears, their doubts, even their grief, to complete their jumps and spins that require such total physical and mental control."

Well said, set aside your fears and hopes and doubts , look only at the end target and execute brilliantly- that is what I call Personal Excellence. Ok, so why am I talking about individual peak performance when for the most part the software business I am in is all about team work? Well the answer has to do with my other passion- the high risk world of finance! Personal Excellence, zero unforced error, trading in the zone, peak performance...traders live and die by it...oh boy a lot of skill to master and excel :-)

Bloom Energy - a game changer?

2010-02-24T20:41:00.000-08:00

A new startup called Bloom Energy took the media by storm when they were featured in the CBS 60 minute with a potential breakthrough in clean energy. This new technology promises to use cheap ingredients like sand ( which is available in abundance) as a energy server- something which can store energy when in surplus and produce energy when demanded. The bloom energy runs on flex fuel, renewable biogas, natural gas even solar energy and produces very little pollution (clean) or in some cases totally carbon neutral ( when using renewable biogas). The details of the technology can be seen here.

I have been passionate about energy conservation and cleaner/ sustainable sources of energy for a long time. This announcement today in a press event in San Jose came to me as a pleasant surprise. The details of the press event can be obtained here. The technology has great potential but still needs to overcome many potential challenges. The biggest one is going to be bringing down the cost to affordable level, otherwise people will continue to use the older cheaper dirtier way of energy consumption. The second challenge would be to scale this thing beyond its current experiments in California alone. A true disruptive technology should be useful across the continent- be it Asia or Africa or America. The third challenge as I see it is making the ceramic durable enough so that they last long enough for a reasonable payback.

In other words there is a long way ahead for this technology, but hey even it fails , it is going to leave behind valuable lessons for its successors. This is how we progress, nothing ventured, nothing gained and not to forget the great quote from Issac Newton - "If I have seen farther than others, it is because I was standing on the shoulder of giants". I am also proud that founder of Bloom Energy K R Sridhar is a fellow Indian who now calls North America his home. Sridhar, keep doing the good work, if you succeed you will create history, if you fail, you will be the shoulder your successor would have stood on to go further!!

Toyota Recall - the electroics at fault?

2010-02-24T00:06:00.000-08:00

Toyota recently recalled 8.5 million vehicles for safety issues! This is the biggest ever recall in the history of automotive industry. So what are the underlying issues for these recalls? If you believe Toyota it has to do mostly with sticky accelerator pedal, a mechanical problem. As much as I want to believe Toyota evidence is pointing out otherwise. Of all the uncontrolled acceleration cases reported by consumers, 70% of them did not happen in the cars under recall. What does that mean? it is simple there are other issues in play here , beyond the apparent reason Toyota has provided.

Per this article suspicion is mounting against the automakers complex electronics that runs the car. Toyota executive were called today for Congress hearing, the executives tried to put on a brave face but the message was loud and clear- fess up and come clean- deal with all the issues- electronic, mechanical, computer...here are some notable quotes form the hearing and I will let you decide- are Mechanical issues the only one to blame?

"A number of lawmakers said, openly questioning Toyota's insistence that the problems are mechanical, not linked to the vehicles' sophisticated electronics. "

"Tracking down an electrical problem can be far more difficult, expensive and time-consuming than finding a mechanical problem. Electrical problems can have more than one source, and they can come from inside or outside the car. Mechanical problems often leave clues such as physical damage, where electronic troubles can be hidden in software or leave no trace at all. "

"Congressional panels are asking whether computerized modern automotive electronics designed to make cars more efficient can sometimes make them less safe. "

I rest my case. I let the reader decide if a simplistic explanation of sticky pedal is enough. The consumer deserves to know better. It is clear that rampant cost control to keep the vehicle prices down and market share up has resulted into a poor quality product. Toyota are you listening, a lot is riding on how you come out of this crises. I hope stronger, I love my Toyotas :-)

Just do it!!!

2010-01-13T20:27:00.000-08:00

Recently I read a review of a book called "Surviving Uncertainty by Lane Wallace.

“Here’s an old riddle: There were five frogs on a log. Four decided to jump off. How many were left?.....Five. Because there is a difference between deciding and doing. Most people are like those frogs. When the time comes to take a big step, they never quite get from deciding to doing. Something always seems to hold them back. If it’s time for your big step and you need a push, this book will give you all the stimulus you need. It will invigorate your intentions and translate them to action.”

Name of the reviewer is Mark L. Feldman, Author, Five Frogs on a Log: A CEO’s Field Guide to Mergers, Acquisitions and Gut Wrenching Change.

In these recessionary times, the advice make sense. Now is the time to take that leap, take the action you have been planning on for years, don't put it off any further...kind of the Nike tag line-"Just do it".

So, consider this blog post as a call to action, time to welcome some dissonance in life, getting out of that comfort zone and taking the big leap...once again wishing you a Happy New Year!!!

Prayer on New Year

2010-01-13T19:56:00.000-08:00

This is from an unknown author, stumbled across it somewhere and immediately found it resonating with my life and my work.

"Eternal God, who can make all things new, we humbly bring before you the record of our lives in the year now ended.

Where life has been good to us, do not let us take more of the credit than we deserve.

Where we have been good to others, help us to forget all thoughts of honor and reward.

Where we have fallen short, forgive us, and free us from brooding over what is past.
Cleanse us by your mercy, guide us by your truth, fill us with your love, and lead us forward in your all-conquering hope

All this we pray in the name of our Lord Jesus Christ.

Amen"

Happy New Year dear reader, I wish you a wonderful year ahead!!!

Upclose with Linux

2009-12-12T22:18:00.000-08:00

Month of December is shaping up to be a very eventful month, whereas normally you would expect things to wind down by holiday season. Nope, not for me. A storage product on Linux we have been working on for a long time is finally seeing the light of the day. We are very excited to release this cutting edge product to the market place. I have mostly worked in proprietary technologies- Microsoft, IBM, Novell, NetApp, EMC and so on. No wonder the move to the open source world of Linux was initially fraught with uncertainties, but actually turned out to be a pleasant experience. Most of my fears, of sitting through endless development cycle, marathon testing, rework , customer criticism etc turned out to be unfounded :-)

I can't believe how far open source movement has come in the last few years. Working on the Linux environment , all my apprehension about not finding the right tools, right documentation, turned out to be untrue. It is pretty well documented for the most part, albeit some projects which I really needed to draw inspiration from where abandoned in 2003, which left me scrambling for answers. Anyway, we survived through all this and now can stake our claim in the Linux's world!!

of all the Linux variants, Ubuntu Linux had the best desktop experience, whereas SUSE Linux (SLES) and OES2 from Novell gave me a good taste of Server class Linux. Needless to say, the developer community has really pulled together very well and I see good future ahead for this Technology. In fact some of the hottest gadget of 2009 run on Linux- think Kindle, Tivo and so on.

Our new storage product leverages the web services architecture - SOA (Service Oriented Architecture), scales very well and virtualizes Tera Bytes and Tera Bytes of data... where is Peta Byte..bring it on :-)

A Teacher for all Seasons

2009-11-12T20:09:00.000-08:00

Stumbled across the following poem on teacher, which the poet compares to a force of nature.

"A teacher is like Spring,
Who nurtures new green sprouts,
Encourages and leads them,
Whenever they have doubts.

A teacher is like Summer,
Whose sunny temperament
Makes studying a pleasure,
Preventing discontent.

A teacher is like Fall,
With methods crisp and clear,
Lessons of bright colors
And a happy atmosphere.

A teacher is like Winter,
While it’s snowing hard outside,
Keeping students comfortable,
As a warm and helpful guide.

Teacher, you do all these things,
With a pleasant attitude;
You’re a teacher for all seasons,
And you have my gratitude!

By Joanna Fuchs "

I have been both a student and a teacher, and yes some time I do get praised by my students, and I realize this happens when I pour my heart into it, when I start talking passionately about the subject...teaching could really be a joy..if you love the subject :-)

Happy Deewali!

2009-10-18T12:50:00.000-07:00

Deewali is great festival of India which celebrates win of good over evil. The festival has universal appeal and is celebrated across this diverse country including Hindu's and Sikhs. Deewali is the festival of light when Lord Rama returned to his kingdom after spending 14 years in exile and conquering the evil ruler of Lanka called Ravana. This is all according to Hindu mythology and is celebrated to this date with all the enthusiasms. The last few years I have seen White House celebrating this festival,this year was no different with President Obama inaugrating the Deewali celebration in White House. This speaks of the growing influence Indians are having in US politics. You can watch Obama's Deewali message here.

Deewali brings up fond memories of my childhood. I grew up in coal mines where my dad would head coal mines with 1000s of people working under his leadership. we would have three days of non stop festivities, one day for orchestra , the other day for what is called Kawwali and a third day of Kavi Sammelan or something similar. The night would light up with fireworks, happiness in the air everywhere. I do plan to go to India one of these Deewali's , may be next year..it's been a while...really..over 13 years now and celebrate it with mom and dad!!!