http://security.nationaljournal.com/ en Copyright 2009 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/ http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification <p>The idea of a binding interdependence between China and America as the linchpin of a new global economic and political order has become a trendy one in geopolitical circles. There is much talk, for example, about Zachary Karabell's new book, <em>Superfusion: How China And America Became One Economy And Why The World's Prosperity Depends On It</em>. So, first of all, is the premise of the so-called Chi-America (or Chimerica) thesis a well-grounded one? What is true and not true of this premise? Why not, at least, "Amer-Chi," given that the U.S. remains, by far, a bigger and wealthier economy, and a weightier global political actor? </p> <p>In any case, how should Washington try to manage the Sino-American relationship -- the political as well as the economic dimension? Given the global rise of China, was President Obama right, for example, recently to postpone a meeting in Washington with the Dalai Lama -- until after a meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao? Or did this step express too much deference towards a China that still has a long way to go before rivaling the U.S. in global influence?</p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/veYpQjUOI8c" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/veYpQjUOI8c/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php The US has much stronger and longer-lasting, and far less contentious, trading relations with our neighbor to the North, Canada. Canada is the number one source of our imported oil, natural gas, electricity, wood, and much more. This is the most intense trading relationship in the world and yet most Americans are unaware of it. They focus too much on our relations with China, and often in a negative way. China is our number two trading partner, but Mexico, our neighbor to the south, is not far behind at number three. Then there is Japan, Germany, the UK and South...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/EgdUirmqU_o" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/EgdUirmqU_o/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388777 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388777 Regarding Paul Starobin’s, “even though the Cold War ended more than fifteen years ago, there remains a vacuum, the absence of an ordering principle, in geopolitical life,” a very perceptive comment. But searching for an ordering principle may be the easier chore. Inducing or compelling obedience to it once found (and lets not kid ourselves: some degree of compulsion almost always is necessary) will be much harder than it has ever been....<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/iPS3XqqkaJA" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/iPS3XqqkaJA/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388495 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388495 In 2001 America was the G1. Now we say, G20. But what if another transfiguration is so underway as to be far gone? Remember Bobbitt's "market state?" If Walmart were a nation-state, it would be China's 8th largest trading partner. Maybe Bismarck's maps (and the nation-state elites that still exalt in their resplendent meaning) don't mean as much anymore....<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/6fvEYDuB_dE" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/6fvEYDuB_dE/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388468 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388468 Updated at 10:17 p.m. on Nov. 4. Thanks to everyone who has sent in posts for this round. It is fair to say that there is a rough consensus among the bloggers that current talk about the Chi-America paradigm reflects a certain trendiness in geopolitical circles. Just as Japan was once widely seen as the &lsquo;next big thing&rsquo; in the world, now China (and the Chi-America version of China&rsquo;s rising role in the world) is often viewed in that light. For what it&rsquo;s worth, I have a quasi-cynical explanation for this and a substantive one. The quasi-cynical explanation is that...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/UL-BgUBqiYA" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/UL-BgUBqiYA/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388240 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388240 China is important; it is every bit as much the rising power as it claims to be. Yet we should be careful not to overstate its importance relative to those of other countries, or, for that matter, the EU. Last month's Irish referendum in favor of the Lisbon Treaty gave the EU the green light to move forward toward more coherence, if not greater unification. As such, it will become an increasingly important force in international political, security and economic affairs,&nbsp;second to none&nbsp;in its&nbsp;importance to the United States .&nbsp;&nbsp; India may not overtake China economically, but it too is a...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/aA-54U-GQ94" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/aA-54U-GQ94/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388185 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388185 One of the interesting parts about working with a British-American firm is listening to btoh sides speak of the &quot;special realtionship&quot; between the two countries.&nbsp; For the British, it is a special relationship.&nbsp; For America, not so much.&nbsp; Britain is the old girlfriend that we want to maintain a relationship, occasionally take out to dinner, but don't really want to go much further.&nbsp; They think Athens to Rome.&nbsp; We think they are Athens, Georgia. So, what does this have to do with China.&nbsp; Every time I hear about some grand alliance of their interests with our, I cannot imagine it.&nbsp;...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/8QkykWq0cqo" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/8QkykWq0cqo/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1387594 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1387594 Updated at 10:06 a.m. on Nov. 2. The Chimerica idea is sexy. China’s growth is dramatic; America’s current account deficits are scary. So it’s very exciting to focus on the relationship between the two. But this paradigm leaves out just a bit too much to be really useful. America’s biggest trade partner is not China but the European Union. Japan holds almost as much Treasury debt as China. And there are quite a few other countries that are also racking up growth rates just as impressive as China’s, even if they aren’t quite in the same league as American trade...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/v-GeIxm2yec" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/v-GeIxm2yec/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1386958 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1386958 Chimerica (ChiCom) Chimera? Perhaps Homer and Hesiod is after all a good place to begin: A fantabuous creature that Billy Mumy might have cobbled together in the dark reaches of the Twilight Zone from the parts of multiple animals: the body of a lioness, a tail ending in a snake's head, the head of a goat rising from her back at mid-spine. That would be Chimerica. I write this looking back from the chiaroscuro terror of the early 1950s. A movie I must have seen at age 6 — Steel Helmet — existentially attuned me in my nightmares to a...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/hTIzM_oEYV0" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/hTIzM_oEYV0/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1386957 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1386957 Sun Rise, Sun Set   The sun rising in the East continues its ascent even while we distract ourselves in Iraq and Afghanistan. The shadows that it is casting over the international scene are visible nearly everywhere. Here at home, they noticeably darken the outlook for the country’s troubled financial prospects. The challenge to thinking through the full implications of China’s growing strength and confidence lies at once in its immensity and in its pervasive effects on all manner of international affairs. It makes sense to begin with the big picture. In historical perspective, there is reason to expect a...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/oDXod58cTn8" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/oDXod58cTn8/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1386956 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1386956 The talk of “Chi-America” is the popular version of the ongoing policy debates about whether the United States and China should team up as a “G-2” to try to coordinate their policies around the world, in a way that would place China above other countries or groups of countries (Europe,Japan, Russia, India) in strategic importance. As a practical matter, I think that over the past year we have already seen the first signs of an “economic G-2.” The U.S. and China worked closely together to stimulate their economies after the Wall Street upheavals of 2008, at a time when other...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/Zlk7UnbvE9g" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/Zlk7UnbvE9g/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1386952 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1386952 <p>The conventional wisdom at the beginning of the year was that Hillary Rodham Clinton might be sidelined by all the strong personalities among President Obama's "team of rivals" and his special envoys to the Middle East and Afghanistan/Pakistan. Some analysts have said that doesn't seem to have happened.</p> <p>Clinton has taken charge of relations with great powers China and Russia, and is a key player in reinforcing Obama's multilateral approach to international issues, one of the things that the Nobel committee cited in giving him the Peace Prize. People give her credit for giving this administration some spine. And she certainly is getting more resources for the State Department. David Rothkopf, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote a piece in the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/21/AR2009082101772.html?sid=ST2009091803188"><em>Washington Post</em></a> in August saying that Clinton is "rethinking the very nature of diplomacy and translating that vision into a revitalized State Department, one that approaches U.S. allies and rivals in ways that challenge long-held traditions."</p> <p>But we would like to know what you, the experts, think about Hillary's performance so far, what she has accomplished, and what more she could or should be doing. So what kind of report card do you give Hillary Rodham Clinton so far as secretary of State? Was she a good, or bad, choice as the nation's top diplomat?</p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/ComoRJdX2Yk" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/ComoRJdX2Yk/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php Mrs. Clinton's pathetic performance in Pakistan today underscores that neither she, the State Department, nor President Obama is what America needs in wartime. Clinton and almost all of our governing elite are worthless caricatures of a leaders so long as they fail to make the protection of the United States the single basis from which all policy flows. Like a hectoring school marm, Mrs. Clinton today told the Pakistanis that she could not believe they did not know the location of Osama bin Laden. Whether or not the Pakistanis know, the reality is that Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda&nbsp;are America's...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/ZLQfCuFa1kE" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/ZLQfCuFa1kE/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1384787 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1384787 &nbsp; It is the best of times and it is the worst of times, to paraphrase Charles Dickens&rsquo;s famous opening line from A Tale of Two Cities. The choice of Hillary Rodham Clinton to be the country&rsquo;s top diplomat was a choice of great consequence for the United States and a significant decision of the nascent Obama administration.Without a doubt, her leadership, vision and energy have invigorated the Department of State. She is a secretary who cannot be ignored, shunted aside or marginalized; her leadership at the helm of the Department of State was desperately needed at this juncture. She...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/ZDfF_g1eVhI" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/ZDfF_g1eVhI/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1384436 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1384436 Bloggers: Permit me a bit of shortchanging shorthand to summarize an excellent discussion on Hillary Clinton, a person and personality who always provokes strong feelings. It seems that we have a rough division here: On the one hand, we have the grassroots structuralists who see a fundamental need for Hillary to remake the Foggy Bottom bureaucracy, and policy and planning process, or else State will never be able to accomplish anything asked of it, no matter who is in charge. On the other, we have the policy-above-process crowd, who desperately want Hillary to bust outside the conventional U.S. foreign...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/4LRB41ESmRs" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/4LRB41ESmRs/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1383944 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1383944 I thought I had a unique angle, answering the question by comparing Secretary Clinton to previous holders of the office, but I see that others have beat me to the punch. Rookie mistake. On balance, I think that Jim Carafano gets it right: the president sets policy, and his appointees carry it out. This is particularly true in the case of foreign policy. The exceptions to this rule are notable, but rare. A few Secretaries of State&nbsp;are remembered&nbsp;for opposing the president's policies and resigning from office (think Wiliam Jennings Bryan or Cyrus Vance). Far more common are the cases where...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/OKDSR6ALPr8" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/OKDSR6ALPr8/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1383424 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1383424 Comments on this question seem focused on process and style -- the sainted Mrs. Clinton designing a &quot;new diplomacy&quot; as did the lamentable Woodrow Wilson,&nbsp;or Team Obama behaving as did the FDR administration, although how that's possible is a question given that FDR had more skill, guile, intelligence, and political savvy then the whole gang of aging, 1960's adolescents now ensconced in the White House. The truth, I think, is that Mrs. Clinton is more of the same: an interventionist and a bully when it comes to weak countries; a hypocrite when it comes to tyranny; a surrenderist when it...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/gnQi9h6P8qk" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/gnQi9h6P8qk/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382815 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382815 The Ghost of FDR Maybe, it&rsquo;s a little to close to Halloween, but you have to wonder if Secretary Clinton is channeling Cordell Hull and Sumner Wells. As we learn more and more about the emergent leadership style of the Obama White House, it more and more appears to resemble that&nbsp;of Franklin Roosevelt. Roosevelt once famously declared &ldquo;I never let my left hand know what my right hand is doing.&rdquo; You could not tell who was taking the lead in administration decisions by looking at the organization chart. Roosevelt had confidence in one individual&hellip;Roosevelt&hellip;and he distributed divided, competed, and segmented...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/Cri8-0sOGEM" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/Cri8-0sOGEM/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382720 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382720 I am dubious about the assertion that there is a correlation between an organizational rearrangement of the State Department and either the quality of its advice or the amount of influence it has.&nbsp; Consider Iraq.&nbsp; Colin Powell oversaw the preparation of a comprehensive, detailed set of plans for the occupation of the country.&nbsp; By all available accounts, it was a superior piece of work.&nbsp; Nonetheless, it wound up in trash cans - literally in the case of the Pentagon where Donald Rumsfeld issued a fatwa against anyone in the building even reading it. What would make a difference today is...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/D9XZQ8Qopo4" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/D9XZQ8Qopo4/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382475 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382475 There will be a tendency to answer this question by focusing on policy and personal relationships.&nbsp; Will she have an impact on policy, and, if so, which policies?&nbsp; And will she get along with the &quot;team of rivals,&quot; which journalists love to write about.&nbsp;&nbsp; Between big policy issues and the personal politics at the apex of the executive branch, commentators risk missing the one big opportunity she has to bring about long-term change in US foreign relations: reforming the State Department and strengthening its ability to exercise leadership in US foreign relations. As proud as the State Department is, it...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/WWceBYZlABk" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/WWceBYZlABk/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382387 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382387 I have always thought they were two Hillary Clintons.&nbsp; The bad Hillary was unnecessarily confrontational and could cause more problems for herself than any of her enemies.&nbsp; The other, the good Hillary, was a damn good senator who dug into her work, was extraordinarily knowledgeable about her subject matter, and very moderate politically.&nbsp; It is the latter person that has shown up at the State Department.&nbsp; First,&nbsp;Secretary Clinton&nbsp;is proving a willingness to be a team player in an administration that is still sorting out its foreign policy priorities.&nbsp; Had Clinton been anything else,&nbsp;it could&nbsp;be quite destructive and she knows it.&nbsp;...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/Nz4s5trIUJk" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/Nz4s5trIUJk/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382325 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382325 Treating National security policy-making as a just another sphere of celebrity culture is itself indicative of how deformed public discourse on serious matters has become.&nbsp; Hillary&nbsp;Clinton &nbsp;has contributed two things to analyze of critical issues abroad: (1) her advocacy of 'smart power' (evidently in apposition to the advocacy of stupid power); and (2) now, her dedication to &quot;rethinking the nature of diplomacy and translating that vision into a revitalized State Department, one that approaches U.S. allies and rivals in ways that challenge long-held traditions. &quot;Grand Project&quot; - as the French say.&nbsp; So grand that it strains credulity how it can...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/8FVQf4vg0U4" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/8FVQf4vg0U4/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382277 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382277 On Secy Hillary Clinton's stewardship to date, here is the exsum:&nbsp; on the one hand, on the other hand, only time will tell. On&nbsp;the&nbsp;black-to-gray hand, she has not yet been Secy long enough to have any substantive triumphs.&nbsp; Moreover, she has appointed senior envoys --- Mitchell and Holbrooke --- who have become neo-Czars in their regions.&nbsp; Her voice on Middle East and AfPak issues is strong inside the White House, but muted on the public stage.&nbsp; She has masterminded a re-engagement policy with enemies and adversaries,&nbsp; which is great, but&nbsp;carries with it&nbsp;no guarantees of glory.&nbsp; Russia, China, and North Korea...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/rKs_hNGdEUc" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/rKs_hNGdEUc/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382247 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382247 A surprise nomination, Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton has embraced her role as Secretary of State and skillfully navigated both the array of pressing foreign policy issues that confronted the new Administration as well as the Washington bureaucracy.&nbsp;Her tenure has been marked by keen interest in strengthening the role of the State Department in the foreign policy process and creating new civilian tools for the President&rsquo;s use in carrying out 21st century national security missions.&nbsp;Having an abiding interest in development, she has been adept at recognizing the need to reassess how we provide foreign assistance. &nbsp;And, coming from her experience...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/wgwcjIyU034" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/wgwcjIyU034/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382227 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382227 <p>As the repercussions from the summer's election fraud and its bitter aftermath continue to ripple through Iranian politics, it's become clear that the greatest fear of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his allies in the Revolutionary Guards and among hard-line clerics is a "velvet" people's revolution of the type that swept authoritarian regimes from power in Georgia with the 2003 "Rose Revolution," and in Ukraine with the "Orange Revolution" in 2004-2005.</p> <p>Are those fears well-founded? Given a level of popular opposition to the theocratic regime that surprised many outside observers, especially on the part of the country's urban youth, is there a viable prospect that the regime can be swept from power by a people's revolution? Given the sensitivity and danger of any domestic group being associated with the "Great Satan," are there proactive and helpful steps -- secret or otherwise -- that the United States should take to improve the chances of a "velvet revolution"? What aspects of the velvet revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia might apply to Iran? Finally, is there likely any truth to Iranian charges that the United States or other outside players were behind the unrest surrounding the elections?</p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/9vXTc872HIU" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/9vXTc872HIU/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php The notion that engagement with Tehran somehow strengthens, and extends the longevity of, an Iranian regime whose demise we would welcome is mistaken for two reasons.&nbsp;One is that engagement is not an antonym of criticism or pressure.&nbsp;It is instead a diplomatic tool, to be used for whatever purposes we wish to use it.&nbsp;If we attempt to use it while convincing the other regime that we will work to topple it no matter how it changes its behavior, then of course the other side will lack incentive to engage and the diplomacy will fail.&nbsp;If we use it instead as a tool...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/vO4aaPaEiXw" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/vO4aaPaEiXw/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1378924 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1378924 We&rsquo;re at mid-week on the question of whether the Iranian regime&rsquo;s fears of a &ldquo;Velvet Revolution&rdquo; are well-founded. To further the discussion, I wanted to summarize some of the common themes running through the responses to date, and dig a little deeper into what actions the United States should, and should not, take to improve the chances of internal regime change. As was pointed out by our experts, revolutions are historically rare and inherently difficult to predict. Who can know what spark might start a wild fire? Still, there are obviously hopeful signs in the current conflagration. We&rsquo;ve witnessed...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/8zpBO1zBKzA" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/8zpBO1zBKzA/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1378897 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1378897 Country experts have an unbroken track record, extending back 200 years, at accurately predicting when revolutions take place.&nbsp; By their very nature, revolutions are unpredictable.&nbsp; Stephen Kurzman documents how the senior leadership of the Islamic Revolution thought in October 1978 -- but four months before their triumph -- that their cause would not succeed for many years. A convincing story can be told why a velvet revolution could succeed in Iran in coming months, and an equally convincing story why it has no chance.&nbsp; On the plus side, Iran's leaders seem afraid to use deadly force to put down protests,...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/yYVM9WoISmM" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/yYVM9WoISmM/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1378393 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1378393 &nbsp; Iran is not my bailiwick, but as I am generally credited with having contributed to the program that helped the Serbs bring down Milosevic I dare to offer a few points: 1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The fears are well founded:&nbsp;no regime is immune to popular protest, and the more unreasonable they get the harder they fall. 2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The Green movement looks like a serious one, but it is impossible to predict when or if it might succeed.&nbsp; 3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Any autocratic regime will demonize the U.S. and the protesters even if the protesters don&rsquo;t get assistance from Washington. 4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; U.S. engagement with the...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/HpPvS16sj7Q" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/HpPvS16sj7Q/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377798 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377798 I think the idea of a Velvet Revolution in Iran is an optimistic one.&nbsp; If you are assuming that a Velvet Revolution is a relatively peaceful transition of power from the current clique of revolutionaries and religious zealots, it is highly unlikely.&nbsp; If you are talking about a moderation and a change of behavior in the current regime and its policies, that is far more likely in the near term -- say five years.&nbsp; This is not Eastern Europe in the 1980's.&nbsp; The situation is far more complex internally and there is no obvious outside oppressor like the Soviet Union....<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/Rh4kAa8MI0Y" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/Rh4kAa8MI0Y/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377748 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377748 Iran Under the Gun There is little question that powers in Tehran feel under siege and need the boogeyman of American power more than ever to justify repression. That said, the US has little to hope by engaging Iran&rsquo;s extremist government&hellip;and everything to lose. By kowtowing to Iran and offering talks without preconditions, the US makes the regime look stronger and gains nothing. On the other hand, the government uses every opportunity to &ldquo;demonize&rdquo; America. It blamed the US for post-election violence. Then it was quick to claim that the bombing this weekend was a Western plot as well.&nbsp;Most troubling...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/bfmBvUbWA8I" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/bfmBvUbWA8I/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377738 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377738 &nbsp; I have no first-hand knowledge of Iran.&nbsp;I do not read Farsi.&nbsp;I do read a fair amount about current developments and occasionally speak with true experts.&nbsp;In this I am like the vast majority of those inside government and out who pronounce on Iranian affairs.&nbsp;With this avowal of relative ignorance, here are a few thoughts about attempts to interpret how internal Iranian politics may evolve. All predictions have wide confidence margins.&nbsp;That is one. This is due not only to fluid conditions, but also to the high importance of individual judgments and actions among political elites.&nbsp;Individuals count most at times of uncertainty...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/kppNmeutgTo" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/kppNmeutgTo/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377723 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377723 Revolutions of any sort are historically rare and difficult things to predict. Even unexpected demonstrations and protests, as happened in Iran after the fraudulent elections, can catch many seasoned observers off guard. For a revolution to have any chance of succeeding, there must not only be a popular movement, but also cracks within the elite. To me, this is the most surprising thing about the recent unrest. We all knew that much of the Iranian population scorned the clerical regime. More intersting is the open defiance of the Supreme Leader by several leading Iranians who are usually viewed as establishment...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/jt_sC_MEQX4" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/jt_sC_MEQX4/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377720 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377720 <p>The announcement that President Obama had received the Nobel Peace Prize was met with jaws dropping around the world. Does Obama's Nobel win give "momentum" -- to use the committee chairman's word -- to his efforts on such fronts as Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and nuclear disarmament? Or does the award raise expectations, already high, to a destructive degree? Will the prize end up being more of an embarrassment than an asset if Obama cannot deliver on the extraordinary goals that the Nobel committee believes he is pursuing? And is the award unjustified, given that Obama has sent more combat troops into Afghanistan and is contemplating sending more; that he has embraced the use of remote drones to kill terrorist suspects in Pakistan, a country with which we're not at war; and that he intends to indefinitely detain some terrorist suspects without charge?</p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/yNpa5R0yrbk" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/yNpa5R0yrbk/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php I am writing from Heidelberg at the end of a visit to Paris and Germany.&nbsp; The different responses to the Nobel award shed some light on what may be the reaction when it dawns on people that Obama is not the long awaited American messiah.&nbsp; The French reaction was the classic Gallic shrug - that expressive gesture that conveys indifference, bemusement, resignation or, occasionally, &acute;that&acute;s nice but who cares.&acute;&nbsp; The Germans, by contrast, see a confirmation that Obama indeed could be the incarnation of all the American virtues.&nbsp; Their already high hopes have been further uplifted. &nbsp; Obviously, the inevitable...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/mSAtpkKtNpU" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/mSAtpkKtNpU/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1376350 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1376350 One area where President Obama is nearly certain to disappoint some aspects of his international fan club relates to the boarder security apparatus created since 9/11 to vet international travelers coming to the United States.&nbsp;If you think of the vast array of programs meant to vet prospective travelers against terrorist and other watchlists &ndash; programs as varied as mandatory visa interviews and fingerprinting, visa Security Advisory Opinions, ESTA, pre-flight APIS, PNR, US-VISIT, NSEERS, SEVIS, Global Entry, etc &ndash; the odds are slim that this Administration is going to dismantle much of this security layering.&nbsp;The U.S. has faced an avalanche of...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/cIp4tuWeKac" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/cIp4tuWeKac/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1376236 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1376236 &nbsp; Sydney Freedberg raises a great point. Are there&nbsp;issues where the pressure of the Nobel or more accurately the pressure to be successful put US interests in jeopardy?&nbsp; I think the answer is yes and we&rsquo;ve already seen some examples of that in the arms control arena. There is a story out this week that the administration has rushed to agree to give the Russians unprecedented access to US nuclear facilities. That&rsquo;s a problem. While the description reported in the press of what has been agreed to is way too vague to know whether there would be a significant security...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/nw532oLs_0A" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/nw532oLs_0A/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375921 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375921 What will Obama have to do in America's national interest that will disappoint Europe?&nbsp; What if we flip that question around?&nbsp; Europe sees Iran as a market as much as a threat--that's going to cause quite a bit of tension.&nbsp; Europe, unlike America, does not have the world's reserve currency--and so they can't print money and go into deep debt without immediate consequences (neither can America, of course--something we are going to find out soon enough).&nbsp; So they have to make tough choices on what to spend.&nbsp; One thing on the chopping block is going to be defense--meaning they won't...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/f5hKp0I9Hzc" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/f5hKp0I9Hzc/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375689 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375689 It may not be where the US asserts its interests that most disappoints people; rather, it's possible that a failure to meet expectations for specific policy actions that have been previously telegraphed--if not explicitly promised--is what occurs instead.&nbsp; Sins of omission rather than commission within an environment of raised expectations.&nbsp; Specifically, much of Latin America assumes that US policy toward the region will now be predicated on the basis of &quot;what's good for Latin America is good for the United States,&quot; in part because that's how we ourselves have defined the policy.&nbsp; The region is looking for steps to reduce...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/AUnM2ACDwP4" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/AUnM2ACDwP4/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375637 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375637 I have been terribly busy and unable to post here on this, but we have had a lively discussion on &quot;Sic Semper Tyrannis&quot; on this subject. http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2009/10/the-nobel-committee-and-obama-1.html...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/udxFbtEdCs4" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/udxFbtEdCs4/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375627 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375627 There's a clear consensus so far that the Nobel raises expectations for Obama in ways that are, at the very least, unhelpful. Dov Zakheim in particular argues that although Obama has pleased the Nobel committee and the international audience with fine words and inclusive gestures, there will be a time &ldquo;when bitter reality sinks in,&rdquo; and Washington will have to pursue its own interests and sacrifice some of the promises on human rights, democracy, and international cooperation that so give people hope. When that happens, Zakheim wrote, &ldquo;popular resentment against the United States could rise to fever pitch.&quot; So I'd...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/DvMLW8dO2yU" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/DvMLW8dO2yU/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375614 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375614 I agree with those who argue that the award simply creates more problems for a President that has enough of them on his plate. Because he is such a powerful, articulate and compelling speaker, the President has already created unrealistic expectations of what he might accomplish. HIs visions are not reality, however, despite the fervent hopes of his admirers around the world. By awarding him the Nobel Prize, the Norwegian Nobel Committee hasadded to his lustre, but has made not the slightest difference in termsof his ability to accomplish anything. The risk of negative consequences arising from dashed hopes is...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/JIDRXtPAT8w" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/JIDRXtPAT8w/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375499 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375499 For what it is worth, I believe&nbsp;Obama receiving the Nobel Prize is very important because it shows all Americans the depth of anti-Americanism in Europe,&nbsp;as well as&nbsp;the lethally&nbsp;Pollyanish&nbsp;belief of much of the Western world's elite&nbsp;in the power of words unmatched by deeds. Obama has done as much to&nbsp;weaken U.S. national security and domestic cohesion&nbsp;as any one in recent memory. From telling Americans that we are no longer&nbsp;at war with Islamists, to&nbsp;dismantling the capture-interrogate-incarcerate system that offered America a modicum of effective defense against the Islamists, to marooning a too-small army in Afghanistan,&nbsp;to&nbsp;pushing us ever closer to bankruptcy, to keeping America...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/LkvF80s9CYU" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/LkvF80s9CYU/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375386 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375386 When it comes to this issue, as the famous saying goes, all that can be said has been said, but not everyone has said it.&nbsp; So, here's my view.&nbsp; As an American, I'm proud our president has received the award, mindful that it raises expectations still further, and hopeful that it proves to be an asset rather than a liability for the President in the promotion of US&nbsp;national interests in the conduct of global affairs.&nbsp; Having said that, it certainly has been a political distraction, which can't have been the intended effect of the Nobel Committee.&nbsp; One hopes that all...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/_V9iSmSMWp0" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/_V9iSmSMWp0/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375242 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375242 &nbsp; The Labors of Obama-celes The award committee did not do the president any favors.&nbsp; First, really, who wants an award where the first question at the press conference is &ldquo;do you think you really you deserve this?&rdquo; It is huge distraction for the White House as they try to make hard decisions on Afghanistan and deal with a plethora of domestic issues. Second, I think they make the president&rsquo;s sale job overseas tougher. Basically, the committee knighted him for his willingness to negotiate and cooperate. But, cooperation is a two-sided coin and the decision may have the perverse effect...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/rHIB1hCEgxI" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/rHIB1hCEgxI/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375199 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375199 So, I am sitting in Paris last week with the wife on our 25th anniversary trip.&nbsp; As usual when I&nbsp;travel abroad, the dollar is collapsing and the price of the local currency is rising.&nbsp; And, of course, the Parisians are being their usual selves -- New Yorkers without the charm and more cigarette smoke.&nbsp; Then, I see on French television that President Obama has won the Nobel Peace Prize.&nbsp; This made my trip.&nbsp; Nothing like watching the ever sanctimonious and utterly phlegmatic French commentators stutter and fumble for a reaction -- mostly, as American icon Homer Simpson would say, &quot;d'oh.&quot;...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/m0c1teNA4fY" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/m0c1teNA4fY/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375196 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375196 The Nobel committee's decision does raise expectations in an unhelpful way.&nbsp; I&nbsp;suspect that the President himself, while honored by the award, would have preferred a different outcome last week.&nbsp; At the same time, the Nobel award starkly highlights the global realization that the world is a much more dangerous place when the United States of America ceases to take a multilateral approach as a first -- not the only, merely the first -- public policy option.&nbsp; Our departure from that tradition over the past seven years has weakened US stature and our ability to positively impact outcomes internationally.&nbsp; This Nobel...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/eINRo2DvbIA" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/eINRo2DvbIA/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375181 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/obamas-nobel-prize-asset-liabi.php?rss=1#1375181 <p>It's March 1, 2010, and you're the secretary of Defense. Sanctions, negotiations and all other forms of diplomacy have failed to get Iran to renounce its nuclear program. The president has directed you and the chairman of the joint chiefs to draw up a plan for striking at Qum and Iran's many other nuclear facilities within the next 90 days. How would you advise that they be taken out, and in such a way that they can't come back online, at least not for several years? What would such a strike look like? Bunker busters? Cyber attacks? Cruise missiles and fighter bombers? Would we keep Israel out of it? How much air-, sea- and manpower would we need in place to keep the entire region from exploding? And how would we prepare for the aftermath? </p> <p>Or would you advise against the mission entirely and resign in protest rather than execute it -- perhaps telling the president that such a strike would likely fail, be counterproductive to other U.S. goals in the region, and push the Iranians into a faster nuclear arms race?</p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/0UOticz7Mhk" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/0UOticz7Mhk/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php We started the week talking about viable military options for halting Iran&rsquo;s nuclear capabilities.&nbsp;But let&rsquo;s turn this question around a bit, because the consensus among our experts seems to be that a U.S. strike against Iran is too costly, in terms of military force expended, as well as strategic consequences for the United States. And it&rsquo;s highly doubtful that the strike would be all that effective. Indeed, some of our experts offer detailed plans about how a strike might be accomplished, but even Wayne White, who has laid out a number of options, concludes that any use of force...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/GOz7vs3CQMQ" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/GOz7vs3CQMQ/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php?rss=1#1371711 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php?rss=1#1371711 I would respectfully resign and counsel my former colleagues to look into group therapy. cheers...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/DLZD_Ze-xiY" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/DLZD_Ze-xiY/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php?rss=1#1369499 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php?rss=1#1369499 Wrong Question, Right Problem The issue is not whether or not that there should be an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. The US has no interest in this course of action- period. Seymour Hersh was just dead wrong when he claimed the Bush administration was seriously thinking about attacking Iran. The Obama White House has even less interest in the idea. The real issue is what will we do after Israel attacks Iran? The Israeli calculus on this decision could be changing. The Iranian elections have put the hardliners who want a weapons program in a more powerful position. The...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/bYmnIBZlYVU" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/bYmnIBZlYVU/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php?rss=1#1369430 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php?rss=1#1369430 Iran wants nukes, and it will have them.&nbsp;They live in a dangerous neighborhood, they are status hungry, and they worry about potential invaders.&nbsp;Moreover, they are sufficiently developed to master a technological process that matured in the 1940s.&nbsp;We should continue to try to talk and sanction the Iranians out of developing these weapons, but I just don&rsquo;t think that we will be successful. There are no sensible military options against the Iranian nuclear program.&nbsp;&nbsp;The center of gravity of this program is not facilities, many of which are underground and hardened.&nbsp;The core of this program ---no pun intended--- is will and knowledge,...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/o8XR0nd4fYM" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/o8XR0nd4fYM/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php?rss=1#1369396 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php?rss=1#1369396 The proverbial 400 pound gorilla in the room often not&nbsp;explored sufficiently&nbsp;in&nbsp;many discussions of how&nbsp;would the US&nbsp;take out militarily enough of Iran's nuclear capability that it&nbsp;could be&nbsp;neutralized for a considerable period of time is that the military action required to do so probably would be so extensive as to, essentially, place the US and Iran in a virtual state of war. One must consider that to do the job as&nbsp;thoroughly as possible, a massive amount of sheer military power would have to be brought to bear against Iran.&nbsp; Aside from the complex target set involved (made more difficult to tackle by...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/XHqn0x3QW6U" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/XHqn0x3QW6U/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php?rss=1#1369311 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/bomb-iran-its-your-call.php?rss=1#1369311