http://security.nationaljournal.com/ en Copyright 2009 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:26:00 GMT http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/ http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification <p><em>Updated at 10:45 a.m. on Nov. 16.</em></p> <p>Conventional wisdom has held for some time now that Muslims in the United States integrate better into society than do Muslims in France, Britain or other European countries, and that's why we haven't had many homegrown terrorist plots. But perhaps in light of recent events, that is just so much self-delusion. Some 20 Somali-Americans -- all young men mostly born here, the FBI says -- have gone to Somalia in the past 18 months and joined Al Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda-affiliated group trying to seize that Horn of Africa country. One of those Somali Americans, Shirwa Ahmed, died in an apparent suicide attack targeting government offices in northern Somalia in October 2008. Najibullah Zazi, an American born in Afghanistan but raised in the United States since the age of 7, was plotting to blow up trains in New York City before he was recently arrested in Colorado. And now Army Maj. Nidal Hasan, an American Muslim born and raised in Virginia, stands accused of shooting to death 13 of his fellow soldiers at Fort Hood, Texas.</p> <p>Are we as good at integrating Muslims into U.S. society as we think we are? Or is it that Muslims worldwide are inevitably getting fed up with America's two wars against Muslims in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a global war on terror that is perceived to be attacking Muslims in about two dozen countries? Or is it that Al Qaeda -- which had connections to Zazi, Al Shabaab and the Somalis, and perhaps through a cleric to Maj. Hasan -- is still the force we need first to be reckoning with?</p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/Ks1AOd6HAro" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/Ks1AOd6HAro/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:26:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php Of course we should be training new Lawrences.&nbsp; But their aim should not only to be to understand our Islamist enemies, but to understand them&nbsp;in a way that helps us gain access to&nbsp;kill as many of them as possible.&nbsp; Realistically, though, hundreds of new Lawrences would not be able to make a dent in growing&nbsp;Islamist numbers.&nbsp; That would require a host of changes in U.S. foreign policy -- re oil, Arab tyrants, Israel, etc. -- which would,&nbsp;with time, begin to&nbsp;slow Islamist growth.&nbsp; Once&nbsp;such changes are in place and begin to undermine the Islamists' center-of-gravity and major motivation&nbsp;-- status quo U.S....<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/Ngzo85SO0es" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/Ngzo85SO0es/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1393315 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:26:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1393315 Lawrences of Arabia/Somalia/Afghanistan/Pakistan/Iran(?)&nbsp; That senior American policy-makers are actually pursuing such fanciful ideas is revealing of how disconnected from reality and good sense the whole Islamic Terrorism mania has become.&nbsp; A bit of history (the British sold out the locals whom Lawrence seduced - see the film), a bit of empathetic capacity to understand the minds of other peoples as other than objects for anthropolgical exploitation, and a bit of self awareness should dissolve these chimeras before the dawn of a new day.&nbsp; Indeed, all it would take to restore sanity is some slight reflection on our dismal performance everywhere...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/bL8co5ZYAKY" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/bL8co5ZYAKY/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1393085 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:26:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1393085 In response to your question: What is the alternative to having people who understand the country and people of where they are serving? &quot;Ugly&quot; and &quot;quiet&quot; Americans don't work out so well. &nbsp;...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/HbpU5cvS-Nk" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/HbpU5cvS-Nk/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1392914 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:26:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1392914 &nbsp; At its best, I believe the discussion that appears on this National Security Experts blog provides well-reasoned context to the often hyper-partisan debate in the nation&rsquo;s capital. So it has been this week. Our experts have given thoughtful analysis while political Washington seems fixated on whether or not Army Major Nidal Hasan&rsquo;s shooting rampage was an act of terror, and, if so, wasn&rsquo;t &ldquo;political correctness&rdquo; to blame? Apparently no national tragedy is immune from political point scoring. &nbsp; My summary of the discussion so far follows below. First, however, I would like to pose a related question to the...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/NcnZ47HRiwA" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/NcnZ47HRiwA/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1392897 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:26:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1392897 &nbsp;Timothy McVay wasn't a Muslim, and he was a terrorist. The Muslims who serve in our military, who have fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, are neither terorists nor a threat of any kind. We cannot generalize. What we can say is that we have not integrated recent Muslim immigrant&nbsp;well. Many recent arrivals live in poor conditions, similar to their co-religionists in Europe. That situation breeds crime--and, when stoked by the Internet and other influences, terrorism. Our governments--Federal, State, local--need to do whatever possible to integrate recent arrivals so as to avoid their alientation, or worse. And there are some things...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/V5cvj4Dmvig" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/V5cvj4Dmvig/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1392131 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:26:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1392131 There are some&nbsp;members of every ethnic and religious group in the United States who are in someway&nbsp;a threat to U.S. national security.&nbsp; This has always been true, and we as society have coped adequately with the problem over our history.&nbsp; Still, I believe that there at least three groups in U.S. society that will be of growing concern in the&nbsp;coming decades primarily because they are&nbsp;either opposed to U.S. political&nbsp;life and&nbsp;foreign policy on religious grounds, or believe they should dictate and&nbsp;control U.S. foreign policy on religious grounds. On the Muslim side of the coin, there is no objective rationale for believing...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/vcflew8HkPo" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/vcflew8HkPo/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1392020 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:26:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1392020 &nbsp;One of the recent overused buzz &quot;phrases&quot; in the field of organizational analysis is &quot;wicked problem.&quot; &nbsp;It is used to describe a problem that is nearly impossible to solve because of its complex interdependencies and contradictory requirements. &nbsp;Or, as we laymen call it, a real mess. &nbsp;The question of Americans becoming &quot;radical&quot; Islamists certainly falls in this category. &nbsp;And, how we try to &quot;solve&quot; the problem is even more complex, if not nearly impossible. First, some throat clearing on Muslims in America. &nbsp;To tarnish the reputation of 99.9999 percent of America's Muslims with this group of Jihadists is thoroughly insulting...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/EJAuuFPC5SY" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/EJAuuFPC5SY/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1391980 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:26:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1391980 Updated at 4:36 p.m. on Nov. 16. The average American Muslim is probably&nbsp;no more&nbsp;dangerous than the average Buddhist, Sikh, Christian, or Jew.&nbsp; There some Muslims in American, however,&nbsp;who are caught up in the jihadist ideology; those Muslims&nbsp;may well pose&nbsp;a threat to national security.&nbsp; While respecting the rights of law abiding citizens, we must also safeguard our society, our communities, and yes, even our Army at home and abroad.&nbsp; This means that we must support intelligence fusion, good police work, sensible security precautions, and effective small unit leadership in the Armed Forces. Georgetown's Dan Byman said that the jury is still...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/olMZrXd4nnU" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/olMZrXd4nnU/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1391727 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:26:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1391727 The excellent comment by Brian Jenkins says most of what needs to be said about the specter of an upsurge of domestic terrorism emanating from the Muslim American (or any other) community within the United States.&nbsp; The extent to which the public notices, is alarmed by, and reacts to an incident (and isn&rsquo;t this much of what terrorism is about?) is not directly correlated to the number of perpetrators, the extent of the organization to which they may be affiliated, or the sophistication of their methods.&nbsp;A singleton or small cell can get our attention in a big way.&nbsp;Whether or not...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/5U9_dXs7Uog" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/5U9_dXs7Uog/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1391700 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:26:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1391700 Major Nidal Malik Hasan is a disputable terrorist in the twilight between political extremist and everyday mass murderer. At a glance, his homicidal rampage looks a lot like what used to be called “going postal”—a deepening sense of personal grievance culminating in a homicidal rampage directed against co-workers, in this case, fellow soldiers. For Hasan, “going jihad,” reflects the channeling of obvious personality problems into a deadly fanaticism. Hasan’s profile looks familiar. Descriptions of his inability to connect with others, absence of close relationships, passive rigidity, personal disillusion, frustration at not being able to alter his life’s course indicate a...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/LaqXh62hDOA" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/LaqXh62hDOA/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1391634 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:26:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1391634 &nbsp; Even a sketchy attempt to address these issues would lead to a short disquisition.&nbsp;So here are a few stray thoughts. &nbsp; 1)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; American Muslim immigrants are far better integrated into American society than their British and French counterparts are&nbsp;over there.&nbsp; &nbsp;There simply is no comparison with Bradford or St. Denis. &nbsp; 2)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; It is easy to exaggerate the significance of the Somalis from Minnesota who went back to fight with Shabbab.&nbsp;Their targets were groups and peoples who were seen by these recent immigrants as threats to the homeland they ledt under duress.&nbsp;There were grounds for&nbsp;joining up with&nbsp;the Shabbab. After...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/uaRcyjxRJtI" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/uaRcyjxRJtI/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1391632 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:26:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1391632 We should start with what we know. Do we have a domestic threat? Sure we do. That is beyond debate. At least 27 terrorist attacks aimed at America have been foiled since 9/11. Most of these attacks were domestic in origin. Some of them were hatched by American citizens. Some of these individuals were "radicalized" overseas. Some became extremists here. All we know for sure is that there is a terror threat on the homeland. (There is a reason why when the Bush administration updated the national homeland security strategy before it left office that it included a section on...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/EpHbgaBx32g" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/EpHbgaBx32g/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1391600 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:26:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1391600 Although the verdict on Major Hasan’s motivations and foreign ties is still out, the attack he allegedly conducted appear particularly ominous when paired with the alleged plot of Najibullah Zazi and the reports of Somali-Americans heading back to Somalia to fight for the Shebab there. These attacks suggest three distinct domestic terrorism dangers related to the salafi-jihadist movement, each one difficult to combat. Initial reports seem to indicate that Hasan was a scared and angry individual who snapped – he acted along, not part of a larger group. This sort of individual attack is the most difficult to prevent, but...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/UV971ods2K0" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/UV971ods2K0/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1391599 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:26:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/are-american-muslims-a-threat.php?rss=1#1391599 <p>The Obama administration wants to keep Afghanistan from becoming a base of operations for terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda, and the expected troop buildup there will almost certainly involve a heavy reliance on counterterrorism operations. But recent evidence suggests that terrorist networks have found much safer bases in countries where there isn't a large U.S. military presence, such as Somalia, Yemen and Algeria.</p> <p>How should the Obama administration broaden its counterterrorism strategy to include these burgeoning terrorist havens? Should it increase the use of Predator drones in these countries? Or the kind of commando raids that killed a key Al Shabaab leader in Somalia recently? Should the president consider lifting the ban on assassinations in order to more freely target terrorist figures in countries where we're not at war? And what are the options the president has for focusing on the "upstream" factors, as his chief counterterrorism adviser has called them, that lead people to commit terrorist acts in the first place?</p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/yn58--I5moQ" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/yn58--I5moQ/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php How is the Obama administration doing?&nbsp; Well for having a president with no relevant political or foreign policy experience; a terrorism Czar who made his CIA&nbsp;career by endlessly saying &quot;Yes, Mr. Tenet, you are a genuis&quot;; a National Security Adviser who has forgotten that he was Marine and is happy to let a marooned U.S. Army twist slowly in the wind until it dies in&nbsp;Afghanistan; a vice president who thinks the Cold War is still at its height because he never stops talking long enough to learn the Wall fell 20 years ago; an Attorney General&nbsp;who calls Americans cowards and...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/o_3Ln_8uZT0" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/o_3Ln_8uZT0/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1390839 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1390839 Shane has put us on the spot by posing an unanswerable question.&nbsp; Unanswerable because the information is concealed as to what we have done and are doing with what effects.&nbsp; The tangible evidence in view is too scant to allow for even the most tenative judgments.&nbsp; More disconcerting, I suspect that the White House itself doesn't know; by White House in mean President Obama and General Jones.&nbsp; Most disconcerting, I do not believe that that any effort will be&nbsp;made by the White House to find out - for the compelling reason that it fears&nbsp;revelations of misdeeds that it may not...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/FciGcDiklTA" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/FciGcDiklTA/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1390780 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1390780 Very briefly, one famous dictum the current Administration must take to heart certainly far more than did the Bush Administration is &quot;First, do no harm.&quot;&nbsp;&nbsp;Some lessons that can be applied have, of&nbsp;course,&nbsp;been learned as a result of the heavy-handed blundering of the last Administration, making the Obama White House considerably more cautious.&nbsp; Nonetheless, the formulation and execution of more thoughtful counter-terrorism policy&nbsp;related to&nbsp;the Middle East and South Asia region is&nbsp;hindered by&nbsp;conflicted domestic politcal pressures and considerations, a host of deeply flawed regional allies,&nbsp;long-ingrained policies and supporting interest groups very difficult to alter or trump, ongoing military commitments in Iraq and...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/7zFbeZKrMH8" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/7zFbeZKrMH8/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1390738 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1390738 The U.S. government's&nbsp;goal should be to help&nbsp;deflect&nbsp;the&nbsp;Islamists' war back onto their main enemies.&nbsp; Toward that laudable end,&nbsp;we should:&nbsp; 1.)&nbsp; Honestly accept the obvious: The Islamists are motivated to wage war on the United States because of what Washington does in the Muslim world, and&nbsp;not because of who Americans are or how they think, behave, and live at home.&nbsp; 2.)&nbsp; Recognize that nearly 80-percent of the world's Muslims believe U.S. foreign policy is intended to undermine or destroy Islam. 3.)&nbsp; Armed with&nbsp;1 and 2 above, we can begin to change the foreign policies that are no longer in U.S. national...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/EyWXntmJXps" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/EyWXntmJXps/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1390733 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1390733 Our experts have provided trenchant analysis of what our counterterrorism policy should look like. Now I&rsquo;d like to ask the group to rate the administration&rsquo;s effectiveness in implementing it. So far, everyone&rsquo;s in basic agreement that the fight against terrorist organizations is multi-faceted, calling upon the skills of our military, intelligence community, and diplomatic corps, and that it must incorporate tactical elements as well as a broad, ambitious strategic framework. This is a tall, tall order. And yet it must be done. So, how is the administration doing?&nbsp;...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/iGp7OqlNpNk" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/iGp7OqlNpNk/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1390731 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1390731 I agree with those who find &quot;whack-a-mole&quot; too simplistic and reflective of our lack of any real strategy for fighting terrorism. We cannot, and should not,&nbsp; send our troops hither and yon to fight terrorists.&nbsp;Such an approach depletes our&nbsp;materiel, and, more importantly, our human resources, and accomplishes little. Terrorists are not a single unified group, and they can sprout anywhere. Of course they will prefer iungovernable terriitory, but they can operate in any place--ask the citizens of&nbsp;London, Madrid, or for that matter, New York. We need to treat terrorists the way we once treated&nbsp;anarchists.&nbsp;Terrorists are not common criminals,&nbsp;but they can...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/6OQmwF8nDwM" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/6OQmwF8nDwM/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1390567 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1390567 We should get beyond the simplistic analogies with a children's game called &quot;Whack-a-Mole&quot;. First of all it is dehumanizing, aka equating human terror groups with plastic animals. This leads us into simplifying the persons and groups we are trying to counter, eradicate, minimize or co-opt, depending on the circumstances. Furthermore, the children's game assumes that the targets are &ldquo;unpredictable&rdquo; to some degree and that they normally remain underground. There are certain degrees of unpredictability in the actions, movements and strategies of many terror groups. But the analog that moves the toys in the children&rsquo;s game is static, whereas the analog...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/m-DEzFhbFK8" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/m-DEzFhbFK8/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1390549 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1390549 http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&amp;task=view&amp;id=31&amp;Itemid=74&amp;jumival=4448 Pictures are worth millions of words. This is an excellent depiction of the utter pointlessness and futility of our ongoing presence in Afghanistan....<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/NZL9A-aUuPI" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/NZL9A-aUuPI/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1389985 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1389985 Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} We suffer from the inadequacies of political science to provide a theory that encompasses the reality of religion zealotry merging with political radicalism. But we have been down this road before. Then it was termed Marxism-Leninism. The catechisms of this political &ldquo;religion&rdquo; were every bit as steeped in ideological obscurantism, self-righteousness and messianic visioning as the most extreme apocalyptic variant of any established religion. Devotees of...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/5gmSB52CPs4" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/5gmSB52CPs4/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1389938 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1389938 Whack-a-Mole is the best definition possible of what our future counterterrorism (CT) policy should NOT be.&nbsp; It would take too many whacks to take out the&nbsp;very many moles who dig all around our globe.&nbsp; In the process of free-whacking, we would shred international law and create incentives for accidental guerrillas to become terrorists and enemies for the USA.&nbsp; Our enemies long for our overreaction.&nbsp; We should not help them. We can do better than whack a mole or even more of the same.&nbsp; It is time for a Nixon Doctrine-inspired strategy toward international terrorism.&nbsp; We can't do it all by...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/MLkDXUX0HCk" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/MLkDXUX0HCk/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1389933 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1389933 The United States effort again terrorism is so far a traditional one.&nbsp; And we are not going to make much headway with it. This is a true asymmetric war with no total victories and a likely long line of steps forwards and backwards.&nbsp; I have some deep fears we are predisposed to not getting this one right. One of my greatest concerns for the US Government in the 21st Century &ndash; notice I said the U.S. Government and not the American people &ndash; is they are stuck in the past.&nbsp; Washington, D.C.&rsquo;s bureaucracy was built after World War II in...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/-sqxvVB8C4Q" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/-sqxvVB8C4Q/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1389925 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1389925 A calibrated campaign targeted on identifiable, tangible threats seems preferable to the kinds of massive, vaguely oriented &ndash; and counter productive &ndash; projects that we have pursued in Iraq. Afghanistan and Pakistan.&nbsp; To do so would follow the counsel of several counter terrorism professionals of senior rank in London and Paris.&nbsp; Treating the terrorism challenge as a police cum intelligence problem makes sense.&nbsp; We should recognize, though, that such a strategy is not self defining or straightforward in execution.&nbsp; Here&rsquo;s why. 1. There are questions of legality. United States law prohibits assassination of foreign government leaders while leaving somewhat hazy...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/psKxCg0vPlA" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/psKxCg0vPlA/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1389910 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/whackamole-in-the-war-on-terro.php?rss=1#1389910 <p>The idea of a binding interdependence between China and America as the linchpin of a new global economic and political order has become a trendy one in geopolitical circles. There is much talk, for example, about Zachary Karabell's new book, <em>Superfusion: How China And America Became One Economy And Why The World's Prosperity Depends On It</em>. So, first of all, is the premise of the so-called Chi-America (or Chimerica) thesis a well-grounded one? What is true and not true of this premise? Why not, at least, "Amer-Chi," given that the U.S. remains, by far, a bigger and wealthier economy, and a weightier global political actor? </p> <p>In any case, how should Washington try to manage the Sino-American relationship -- the political as well as the economic dimension? Given the global rise of China, was President Obama right, for example, recently to postpone a meeting in Washington with the Dalai Lama -- until after a meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao? Or did this step express too much deference towards a China that still has a long way to go before rivaling the U.S. in global influence?</p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/veYpQjUOI8c" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/veYpQjUOI8c/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php The US has much stronger and longer-lasting, and far less contentious, trading relations with our neighbor to the North, Canada. Canada is the number one source of our imported oil, natural gas, electricity, wood, and much more. This is the most intense trading relationship in the world and yet most Americans are unaware of it. They focus too much on our relations with China, and often in a negative way. China is our number two trading partner, but Mexico, our neighbor to the south, is not far behind at number three. Then there is Japan, Germany, the UK and South...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/EgdUirmqU_o" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/EgdUirmqU_o/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388777 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388777 Regarding Paul Starobin’s, “even though the Cold War ended more than fifteen years ago, there remains a vacuum, the absence of an ordering principle, in geopolitical life,” a very perceptive comment. But searching for an ordering principle may be the easier chore. Inducing or compelling obedience to it once found (and lets not kid ourselves: some degree of compulsion almost always is necessary) will be much harder than it has ever been....<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/iPS3XqqkaJA" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/iPS3XqqkaJA/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388495 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388495 In 2001 America was the G1. Now we say, G20. But what if another transfiguration is so underway as to be far gone? Remember Bobbitt's "market state?" If Walmart were a nation-state, it would be China's 8th largest trading partner. Maybe Bismarck's maps (and the nation-state elites that still exalt in their resplendent meaning) don't mean as much anymore....<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/6fvEYDuB_dE" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/6fvEYDuB_dE/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388468 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388468 Updated at 10:17 p.m. on Nov. 4. Thanks to everyone who has sent in posts for this round. It is fair to say that there is a rough consensus among the bloggers that current talk about the Chi-America paradigm reflects a certain trendiness in geopolitical circles. Just as Japan was once widely seen as the &lsquo;next big thing&rsquo; in the world, now China (and the Chi-America version of China&rsquo;s rising role in the world) is often viewed in that light. For what it&rsquo;s worth, I have a quasi-cynical explanation for this and a substantive one. The quasi-cynical explanation is that...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/UL-BgUBqiYA" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/UL-BgUBqiYA/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388240 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388240 China is important; it is every bit as much the rising power as it claims to be. Yet we should be careful not to overstate its importance relative to those of other countries, or, for that matter, the EU. Last month's Irish referendum in favor of the Lisbon Treaty gave the EU the green light to move forward toward more coherence, if not greater unification. As such, it will become an increasingly important force in international political, security and economic affairs,&nbsp;second to none&nbsp;in its&nbsp;importance to the United States .&nbsp;&nbsp; India may not overtake China economically, but it too is a...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/aA-54U-GQ94" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/aA-54U-GQ94/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388185 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1388185 One of the interesting parts about working with a British-American firm is listening to btoh sides speak of the &quot;special realtionship&quot; between the two countries.&nbsp; For the British, it is a special relationship.&nbsp; For America, not so much.&nbsp; Britain is the old girlfriend that we want to maintain a relationship, occasionally take out to dinner, but don't really want to go much further.&nbsp; They think Athens to Rome.&nbsp; We think they are Athens, Georgia. So, what does this have to do with China.&nbsp; Every time I hear about some grand alliance of their interests with our, I cannot imagine it.&nbsp;...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/8QkykWq0cqo" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/8QkykWq0cqo/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1387594 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1387594 Updated at 10:06 a.m. on Nov. 2. The Chimerica idea is sexy. China’s growth is dramatic; America’s current account deficits are scary. So it’s very exciting to focus on the relationship between the two. But this paradigm leaves out just a bit too much to be really useful. America’s biggest trade partner is not China but the European Union. Japan holds almost as much Treasury debt as China. And there are quite a few other countries that are also racking up growth rates just as impressive as China’s, even if they aren’t quite in the same league as American trade...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/v-GeIxm2yec" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/v-GeIxm2yec/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1386958 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1386958 Chimerica (ChiCom) Chimera? Perhaps Homer and Hesiod is after all a good place to begin: A fantabuous creature that Billy Mumy might have cobbled together in the dark reaches of the Twilight Zone from the parts of multiple animals: the body of a lioness, a tail ending in a snake's head, the head of a goat rising from her back at mid-spine. That would be Chimerica. I write this looking back from the chiaroscuro terror of the early 1950s. A movie I must have seen at age 6 — Steel Helmet — existentially attuned me in my nightmares to a...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/hTIzM_oEYV0" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/hTIzM_oEYV0/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1386957 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1386957 Sun Rise, Sun Set   The sun rising in the East continues its ascent even while we distract ourselves in Iraq and Afghanistan. The shadows that it is casting over the international scene are visible nearly everywhere. Here at home, they noticeably darken the outlook for the country’s troubled financial prospects. The challenge to thinking through the full implications of China’s growing strength and confidence lies at once in its immensity and in its pervasive effects on all manner of international affairs. It makes sense to begin with the big picture. In historical perspective, there is reason to expect a...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/oDXod58cTn8" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/oDXod58cTn8/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1386956 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1386956 The talk of “Chi-America” is the popular version of the ongoing policy debates about whether the United States and China should team up as a “G-2” to try to coordinate their policies around the world, in a way that would place China above other countries or groups of countries (Europe,Japan, Russia, India) in strategic importance. As a practical matter, I think that over the past year we have already seen the first signs of an “economic G-2.” The U.S. and China worked closely together to stimulate their economies after the Wall Street upheavals of 2008, at a time when other...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/Zlk7UnbvE9g" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/Zlk7UnbvE9g/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1386952 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/11/chiamerica-is-this-the-new-glo.php?rss=1#1386952 <p>The conventional wisdom at the beginning of the year was that Hillary Rodham Clinton might be sidelined by all the strong personalities among President Obama's "team of rivals" and his special envoys to the Middle East and Afghanistan/Pakistan. Some analysts have said that doesn't seem to have happened.</p> <p>Clinton has taken charge of relations with great powers China and Russia, and is a key player in reinforcing Obama's multilateral approach to international issues, one of the things that the Nobel committee cited in giving him the Peace Prize. People give her credit for giving this administration some spine. And she certainly is getting more resources for the State Department. David Rothkopf, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote a piece in the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/21/AR2009082101772.html?sid=ST2009091803188"><em>Washington Post</em></a> in August saying that Clinton is "rethinking the very nature of diplomacy and translating that vision into a revitalized State Department, one that approaches U.S. allies and rivals in ways that challenge long-held traditions."</p> <p>But we would like to know what you, the experts, think about Hillary's performance so far, what she has accomplished, and what more she could or should be doing. So what kind of report card do you give Hillary Rodham Clinton so far as secretary of State? Was she a good, or bad, choice as the nation's top diplomat?</p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/ComoRJdX2Yk" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/ComoRJdX2Yk/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php Mrs. Clinton's pathetic performance in Pakistan today underscores that neither she, the State Department, nor President Obama is what America needs in wartime. Clinton and almost all of our governing elite are worthless caricatures of a leaders so long as they fail to make the protection of the United States the single basis from which all policy flows. Like a hectoring school marm, Mrs. Clinton today told the Pakistanis that she could not believe they did not know the location of Osama bin Laden. Whether or not the Pakistanis know, the reality is that Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda&nbsp;are America's...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/ZLQfCuFa1kE" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/ZLQfCuFa1kE/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1384787 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1384787 &nbsp; It is the best of times and it is the worst of times, to paraphrase Charles Dickens&rsquo;s famous opening line from A Tale of Two Cities. The choice of Hillary Rodham Clinton to be the country&rsquo;s top diplomat was a choice of great consequence for the United States and a significant decision of the nascent Obama administration.Without a doubt, her leadership, vision and energy have invigorated the Department of State. She is a secretary who cannot be ignored, shunted aside or marginalized; her leadership at the helm of the Department of State was desperately needed at this juncture. She...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/ZDfF_g1eVhI" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/ZDfF_g1eVhI/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1384436 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1384436 Bloggers: Permit me a bit of shortchanging shorthand to summarize an excellent discussion on Hillary Clinton, a person and personality who always provokes strong feelings. It seems that we have a rough division here: On the one hand, we have the grassroots structuralists who see a fundamental need for Hillary to remake the Foggy Bottom bureaucracy, and policy and planning process, or else State will never be able to accomplish anything asked of it, no matter who is in charge. On the other, we have the policy-above-process crowd, who desperately want Hillary to bust outside the conventional U.S. foreign...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/4LRB41ESmRs" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/4LRB41ESmRs/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1383944 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1383944 I thought I had a unique angle, answering the question by comparing Secretary Clinton to previous holders of the office, but I see that others have beat me to the punch. Rookie mistake. On balance, I think that Jim Carafano gets it right: the president sets policy, and his appointees carry it out. This is particularly true in the case of foreign policy. The exceptions to this rule are notable, but rare. A few Secretaries of State&nbsp;are remembered&nbsp;for opposing the president's policies and resigning from office (think Wiliam Jennings Bryan or Cyrus Vance). Far more common are the cases where...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/OKDSR6ALPr8" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/OKDSR6ALPr8/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1383424 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1383424 Comments on this question seem focused on process and style -- the sainted Mrs. Clinton designing a &quot;new diplomacy&quot; as did the lamentable Woodrow Wilson,&nbsp;or Team Obama behaving as did the FDR administration, although how that's possible is a question given that FDR had more skill, guile, intelligence, and political savvy then the whole gang of aging, 1960's adolescents now ensconced in the White House. The truth, I think, is that Mrs. Clinton is more of the same: an interventionist and a bully when it comes to weak countries; a hypocrite when it comes to tyranny; a surrenderist when it...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/gnQi9h6P8qk" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/gnQi9h6P8qk/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382815 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382815 The Ghost of FDR Maybe, it&rsquo;s a little to close to Halloween, but you have to wonder if Secretary Clinton is channeling Cordell Hull and Sumner Wells. As we learn more and more about the emergent leadership style of the Obama White House, it more and more appears to resemble that&nbsp;of Franklin Roosevelt. Roosevelt once famously declared &ldquo;I never let my left hand know what my right hand is doing.&rdquo; You could not tell who was taking the lead in administration decisions by looking at the organization chart. Roosevelt had confidence in one individual&hellip;Roosevelt&hellip;and he distributed divided, competed, and segmented...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/Cri8-0sOGEM" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/Cri8-0sOGEM/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382720 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382720 I am dubious about the assertion that there is a correlation between an organizational rearrangement of the State Department and either the quality of its advice or the amount of influence it has.&nbsp; Consider Iraq.&nbsp; Colin Powell oversaw the preparation of a comprehensive, detailed set of plans for the occupation of the country.&nbsp; By all available accounts, it was a superior piece of work.&nbsp; Nonetheless, it wound up in trash cans - literally in the case of the Pentagon where Donald Rumsfeld issued a fatwa against anyone in the building even reading it. What would make a difference today is...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/D9XZQ8Qopo4" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/D9XZQ8Qopo4/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382475 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382475 There will be a tendency to answer this question by focusing on policy and personal relationships.&nbsp; Will she have an impact on policy, and, if so, which policies?&nbsp; And will she get along with the &quot;team of rivals,&quot; which journalists love to write about.&nbsp;&nbsp; Between big policy issues and the personal politics at the apex of the executive branch, commentators risk missing the one big opportunity she has to bring about long-term change in US foreign relations: reforming the State Department and strengthening its ability to exercise leadership in US foreign relations. As proud as the State Department is, it...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/WWceBYZlABk" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/WWceBYZlABk/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382387 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382387 I have always thought they were two Hillary Clintons.&nbsp; The bad Hillary was unnecessarily confrontational and could cause more problems for herself than any of her enemies.&nbsp; The other, the good Hillary, was a damn good senator who dug into her work, was extraordinarily knowledgeable about her subject matter, and very moderate politically.&nbsp; It is the latter person that has shown up at the State Department.&nbsp; First,&nbsp;Secretary Clinton&nbsp;is proving a willingness to be a team player in an administration that is still sorting out its foreign policy priorities.&nbsp; Had Clinton been anything else,&nbsp;it could&nbsp;be quite destructive and she knows it.&nbsp;...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/Nz4s5trIUJk" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/Nz4s5trIUJk/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382325 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382325 Treating National security policy-making as a just another sphere of celebrity culture is itself indicative of how deformed public discourse on serious matters has become.&nbsp; Hillary&nbsp;Clinton &nbsp;has contributed two things to analyze of critical issues abroad: (1) her advocacy of 'smart power' (evidently in apposition to the advocacy of stupid power); and (2) now, her dedication to &quot;rethinking the nature of diplomacy and translating that vision into a revitalized State Department, one that approaches U.S. allies and rivals in ways that challenge long-held traditions. &quot;Grand Project&quot; - as the French say.&nbsp; So grand that it strains credulity how it can...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/8FVQf4vg0U4" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/8FVQf4vg0U4/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382277 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382277 On Secy Hillary Clinton's stewardship to date, here is the exsum:&nbsp; on the one hand, on the other hand, only time will tell. On&nbsp;the&nbsp;black-to-gray hand, she has not yet been Secy long enough to have any substantive triumphs.&nbsp; Moreover, she has appointed senior envoys --- Mitchell and Holbrooke --- who have become neo-Czars in their regions.&nbsp; Her voice on Middle East and AfPak issues is strong inside the White House, but muted on the public stage.&nbsp; She has masterminded a re-engagement policy with enemies and adversaries,&nbsp; which is great, but&nbsp;carries with it&nbsp;no guarantees of glory.&nbsp; Russia, China, and North Korea...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/rKs_hNGdEUc" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/rKs_hNGdEUc/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382247 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382247 A surprise nomination, Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton has embraced her role as Secretary of State and skillfully navigated both the array of pressing foreign policy issues that confronted the new Administration as well as the Washington bureaucracy.&nbsp;Her tenure has been marked by keen interest in strengthening the role of the State Department in the foreign policy process and creating new civilian tools for the President&rsquo;s use in carrying out 21st century national security missions.&nbsp;Having an abiding interest in development, she has been adept at recognizing the need to reassess how we provide foreign assistance. &nbsp;And, coming from her experience...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/wgwcjIyU034" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/wgwcjIyU034/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382227 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:30:00 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/how-is-hillary-clinton-doing-a.php?rss=1#1382227 <p>As the repercussions from the summer's election fraud and its bitter aftermath continue to ripple through Iranian politics, it's become clear that the greatest fear of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his allies in the Revolutionary Guards and among hard-line clerics is a "velvet" people's revolution of the type that swept authoritarian regimes from power in Georgia with the 2003 "Rose Revolution," and in Ukraine with the "Orange Revolution" in 2004-2005.</p> <p>Are those fears well-founded? Given a level of popular opposition to the theocratic regime that surprised many outside observers, especially on the part of the country's urban youth, is there a viable prospect that the regime can be swept from power by a people's revolution? Given the sensitivity and danger of any domestic group being associated with the "Great Satan," are there proactive and helpful steps -- secret or otherwise -- that the United States should take to improve the chances of a "velvet revolution"? What aspects of the velvet revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia might apply to Iran? Finally, is there likely any truth to Iranian charges that the United States or other outside players were behind the unrest surrounding the elections?</p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/9vXTc872HIU" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/9vXTc872HIU/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php The notion that engagement with Tehran somehow strengthens, and extends the longevity of, an Iranian regime whose demise we would welcome is mistaken for two reasons.&nbsp;One is that engagement is not an antonym of criticism or pressure.&nbsp;It is instead a diplomatic tool, to be used for whatever purposes we wish to use it.&nbsp;If we attempt to use it while convincing the other regime that we will work to topple it no matter how it changes its behavior, then of course the other side will lack incentive to engage and the diplomacy will fail.&nbsp;If we use it instead as a tool...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/vO4aaPaEiXw" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/vO4aaPaEiXw/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1378924 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1378924 We&rsquo;re at mid-week on the question of whether the Iranian regime&rsquo;s fears of a &ldquo;Velvet Revolution&rdquo; are well-founded. To further the discussion, I wanted to summarize some of the common themes running through the responses to date, and dig a little deeper into what actions the United States should, and should not, take to improve the chances of internal regime change. As was pointed out by our experts, revolutions are historically rare and inherently difficult to predict. Who can know what spark might start a wild fire? Still, there are obviously hopeful signs in the current conflagration. We&rsquo;ve witnessed...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/8zpBO1zBKzA" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/8zpBO1zBKzA/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1378897 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1378897 Country experts have an unbroken track record, extending back 200 years, at accurately predicting when revolutions take place.&nbsp; By their very nature, revolutions are unpredictable.&nbsp; Stephen Kurzman documents how the senior leadership of the Islamic Revolution thought in October 1978 -- but four months before their triumph -- that their cause would not succeed for many years. A convincing story can be told why a velvet revolution could succeed in Iran in coming months, and an equally convincing story why it has no chance.&nbsp; On the plus side, Iran's leaders seem afraid to use deadly force to put down protests,...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/yYVM9WoISmM" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/yYVM9WoISmM/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1378393 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1378393 &nbsp; Iran is not my bailiwick, but as I am generally credited with having contributed to the program that helped the Serbs bring down Milosevic I dare to offer a few points: 1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The fears are well founded:&nbsp;no regime is immune to popular protest, and the more unreasonable they get the harder they fall. 2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The Green movement looks like a serious one, but it is impossible to predict when or if it might succeed.&nbsp; 3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Any autocratic regime will demonize the U.S. and the protesters even if the protesters don&rsquo;t get assistance from Washington. 4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; U.S. engagement with the...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/HpPvS16sj7Q" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/HpPvS16sj7Q/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377798 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377798 I think the idea of a Velvet Revolution in Iran is an optimistic one.&nbsp; If you are assuming that a Velvet Revolution is a relatively peaceful transition of power from the current clique of revolutionaries and religious zealots, it is highly unlikely.&nbsp; If you are talking about a moderation and a change of behavior in the current regime and its policies, that is far more likely in the near term -- say five years.&nbsp; This is not Eastern Europe in the 1980's.&nbsp; The situation is far more complex internally and there is no obvious outside oppressor like the Soviet Union....<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/Rh4kAa8MI0Y" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/Rh4kAa8MI0Y/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377748 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377748 Iran Under the Gun There is little question that powers in Tehran feel under siege and need the boogeyman of American power more than ever to justify repression. That said, the US has little to hope by engaging Iran&rsquo;s extremist government&hellip;and everything to lose. By kowtowing to Iran and offering talks without preconditions, the US makes the regime look stronger and gains nothing. On the other hand, the government uses every opportunity to &ldquo;demonize&rdquo; America. It blamed the US for post-election violence. Then it was quick to claim that the bombing this weekend was a Western plot as well.&nbsp;Most troubling...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/bfmBvUbWA8I" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/bfmBvUbWA8I/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377738 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377738 &nbsp; I have no first-hand knowledge of Iran.&nbsp;I do not read Farsi.&nbsp;I do read a fair amount about current developments and occasionally speak with true experts.&nbsp;In this I am like the vast majority of those inside government and out who pronounce on Iranian affairs.&nbsp;With this avowal of relative ignorance, here are a few thoughts about attempts to interpret how internal Iranian politics may evolve. All predictions have wide confidence margins.&nbsp;That is one. This is due not only to fluid conditions, but also to the high importance of individual judgments and actions among political elites.&nbsp;Individuals count most at times of uncertainty...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/kppNmeutgTo" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/kppNmeutgTo/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377723 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377723 Revolutions of any sort are historically rare and difficult things to predict. Even unexpected demonstrations and protests, as happened in Iran after the fraudulent elections, can catch many seasoned observers off guard. For a revolution to have any chance of succeeding, there must not only be a popular movement, but also cracks within the elite. To me, this is the most surprising thing about the recent unrest. We all knew that much of the Iranian population scorned the clerical regime. More intersting is the open defiance of the Supreme Leader by several leading Iranians who are usually viewed as establishment...<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/njgroup-security/~4/jt_sC_MEQX4" height="1" width="1"/> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/njgroup-security/~3/jt_sC_MEQX4/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377720 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:02:28 GMT http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/10/velvet-revolution-in-iran.php?rss=1#1377720