National Security Experts

Iran, Oil, and the Politics of Sanctions

Mon, 02 Jul 2012 10:00:00 GMT

How could the Iran sanctions affect global oil prices and, consequently, gasoline prices in the United States?

The financial sanctions on Iran officially kicked in last week, and energy economists aren't yet certain about their impact. But what is clear is that oil prices are falling globally from their high in April--in part thanks to increased production from Saudi Arabia. Some lawmakers are starting to talk about imposing a second round of sanctions if Iran continues to resist scrutiny of its nuclear program.

What factors should the Obama administration and other countries consider when imposing sanctions? What other actions, such as tapping into the nation's strategic oil reserves, could the administration take to blunt the possibility of high oil prices? Is the administration doing enough at home to wean the country off foreign oil?

The administration recently exempted certain countries from sanctions because they significantly reduced the volume of crude-oil imports from Iran. Do you see the exemptions as a demonstration of the sanctions' effectiveness? Or do you agree with those lawmakers who have criticized the exemption, in particular to China, as giving a "free pass" to those who help Iran's economy? If these countries can't further reduce their oil purchases from Iran in the next six months, and become subject to U.S. sanctions, how would this strategy impact foreign policy?

Michael Brenner responded to Iran, Oil, and the Politics of Sanctions on July 2, 2012 12:57 PM

Mon, 02 Jul 2012 07:22:09 GMT

FAITH, HOPE & HUBRIS The intricacies of commodity pricing on the international oil market has best be left to those who give the matter constant attention. So I offer only one comment. Based on what we learned from the crises of the 1970s (and 1980s) the characteristic inelasticty of demand in response to price changes, and the inelasticty of supply in response to short term price or demand fluctuations, those inelasticities are most apparent when there are severe changes in supply/demand ratios beyond what we are seeing now. On to politics. Most important, it should be obvious by now that...

How Should the U.S. Respond to Egypt Elections?

Mon, 25 Jun 2012 15:49:56 GMT

President Obama congratulated the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsi on winning the country's first democratic presidential elections. Are you optimistic for the future of U.S. relations with Morsi in charge? How can Washington play a constructive role? With the military council effectively stripping most of the president's powers, should the U.S. adjust its aid or relationship with its security partner?

Wayne White responded to How Should the U.S. Respond to Egypt Elections? on June 26, 2012 01:32 PM

Wed, 15 Aug 2012 15:05:29 GMT

Address a Ticking Sinai Time Bomb In the aftermath of the fall of Mubarak, the security situation in the Egyptian Sinai has deteriorated considerably. Coverage of this situation, which could become serious enough to involve not only Egypt and Israel but also the US, has been vastly overshadowed by the continuing political and economic instability in Egypt proper. Yet, the ominous situation in Sinai could rise to crisis levels quite rapidly sould there be a cross-border terrorist "spectacular" in which a large number of Israelis become casualties. The most serious aspect of the Sinai mess relates to the dramatic rise in Islamic...

Col. W. Patrick Lang responded to How Should the U.S. Respond to Egypt Elections? on June 26, 2012 01:07 PM

Wed, 15 Aug 2012 15:05:29 GMT

American Optimism Eternal optimism based on ignorance and wishful thinking seems to be the birthright of most Americans. Mursi can be a friend of the US? Mursi will be a friend of women's rights and the Copts? Mursi will not try to install his version of Sharia once he achieves enough real power? An Islamist Egypt will remain in the Israeli treaty permanently? The Obama Administration thinks these things are likely because Mursi was elected in a reasonably honest election? Cetain political parties are self described as "Islamist" because that is what they want their constituencies to know they intend...

Paul Sullivan responded to How Should the U.S. Respond to Egypt Elections? on June 25, 2012 02:34 PM

Wed, 15 Aug 2012 15:05:29 GMT

Let the Real Experts Work This I am neither optimistic nor pessimistic, but cautiously thoughtful on how US-Egyptian relations may change under the President Mohammed Mohammed Morsi Isa Al-Ayyat, which is his full name. There are many unknowns here. President Morsi’s cabinet and other advisors need to become clearer. His views on Iran were a bit clearer today when he said Egypt should re-establish relations with the Iran. I am not sure what this means just yet. The Muslim Brotherhood, from which he resigned yesterday in accordance with Egyptian law, has always taken a rather militant stance with regard to...

Michael Brenner responded to How Should the U.S. Respond to Egypt Elections? on June 25, 2012 12:36 PM

Wed, 15 Aug 2012 15:05:29 GMT

WITH HUMILITY With humility. Don’t just do something – think! Washington has been blinding itself to new realities. One, our ability to shape the political affairs of countries like Egypt has declined markedly. Two, we have limited understanding of the complex internal dynamics there and have no ability to predict outcomes (along with everybody else). Three, as far as regional politics is concerned, the old coalition of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the US, and Israel that had maintenance of the status quo cannot be restored. Each player’s policies increasingly are driven by powerful centripetal forces. Puffing up Shi’ite Iran as...

What's Next for Syria?

Mon, 18 Jun 2012 10:00:00 GMT

The Obama administration has accused Russia of shipping refurbished attack helicopters to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and National Journal reported this week that tiny Belarus is helping Assad improve the accuracy of its surface-to-surface missiles. That support has allowed Assad's armed forces to retain a massive military advantage over the ragtag and poorly-organized Free Syrian Army. On the diplomatic front, Russia continues to back Assad and shield him from meaningful sanctions. With the violence there continuing to escalate, is Assad likely to be forced from power in the foreseeable future? Should the U.S. provide arms and training assistance to the Free Syrian Army in the hopes that it will evolve into a force capable of taking on Assad's forces? Do you expect Washington and its allies to eventually choose to intervene militarily in Syria despite the risks of doing so?

Lori Handrahan responded to What's Next for Syria? on July 3, 2012 03:04 PM

Fri, 15 Jun 2012 12:56:57 GMT

Peace By Tantrum: Srebrenica Lessons in What’s next for Syria? Vera Brittain’s Testament of Youth comes to mind: “How fortunate we were who still had hope… I could not know how soon the time would come when we should have no more hope, and yet be unable to die.” Brittain’s account of World War I is vivid, yet words can never describe what souls who have survived war know. People who know war must weep in outrage and sorrow when truly confronting what is next for Syria. In Syria there will be those who survive unimaginable horror and those who suffer cruel...

Wayne White responded to What's Next for Syria? on June 20, 2012 08:44 AM

Fri, 15 Jun 2012 12:56:57 GMT

More Bloodshed and Frustration to Come There is no end in sight for the ongoing strife in Syria, regardless of whether ultimately we will see the overthrow of the authoritarian, ruthless and corrupt Assad regime or the regime's brutal suppression of the bulk of the opposition arrayed against it. Neither side appears able to move decisively against the other. Nonetheless, meaningful foreign military intervention remains highly unlikely. In the face of a regime determined to kill many thousands more Syrians and continue to ravage population centers to crush the opposition as well as a sizeable opposition still unbowed by the carnage visited...

Col. W. Patrick Lang responded to What's Next for Syria? on June 18, 2012 04:13 PM

Fri, 15 Jun 2012 12:56:57 GMT

Adventure in Syria? I would have thought that the resumption of traditional forms of governance in Egypt and the present chaos in Libya would have served to discourage neo-Wilsonians in their starry eyed desire to "engineer" a new Middle East, but the recent statements from the State Department indicate that the hope for miracles still endures. We all would love to see "good government" arrive on the scene in Syria. Such a splendid development seems unlikely for several reasons. What is ongoing in Syria is not simply a matter of removing Bashar Assad from power. He heads one side of a...

How Should the U.S. Government Deal with the Leaks?

Mon, 11 Jun 2012 10:00:00 GMT

A series of newspaper articles, including one detailing the Obama administration's use of drones and another outing Washington's cyber attack on Iran's nuclear sites, sparked an outcry on Capitol Hill. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are working to craft new laws to regulate access to and disclosure of classified information. The top Intelligence committee leaders in both the House and Senate also said they want to ensure criminal and administrative measures are taken each time sensitive information is improperly disclosed. Would new laws fix the problem? Do you think the Obama administration should launch an investigation or create a special counsel to investigate the leaks? How big of a problem does the disclosure of such highly-classified problems pose for U.S. foreign policy?

Michael Brenner responded to How Should the U.S. Government Deal with the Leaks? on June 12, 2012 04:18 PM

Fri, 08 Jun 2012 15:53:06 GMT

LEAKS & WINKS – AMERICA AT THE BRINK There are moments in the life of a nation when its destiny can be glimpsed. The images in the crystal ball align themselves to prefigure what is in store for us. Usually the opportunity to foresee the future is lost in the clutter and clamor of current obsessions. Today we are experiencing one of those moments. Failure to discern what the emerging constellation means could well ensure the decline of the American republic as we have visualized it. The flare-up over “kill lists,” cyber war and the manipulation of information by our...

Joseph J. Collins responded to How Should the U.S. Government Deal with the Leaks? on June 11, 2012 06:26 PM

Fri, 08 Jun 2012 15:53:06 GMT

Leak Investigation: Caveat Emptor Leak Investigation: Caveat Emptor The law is clear. Leaking sensitive, classified information is a crime, and it should be. Lives are at stake, and the security of the United States hangs in the balance. But just as the law is clear, so are the rules of Washington strategic communications. The ship of state leaks from the bridge. Senior officials leak and leak often to blow their own horn or to sell Administration policies. Bureaucrats leak to thwart rivals or brag about their power. Whistleblowers leak to deal with their angst and their self-righteousness. Reporters --- damn...

Wayne White responded to How Should the U.S. Government Deal with the Leaks? on June 11, 2012 02:00 PM

Fri, 08 Jun 2012 15:53:06 GMT

Politicians Should Look in a Mirror While serving 26 years in the US Intelligence Community, we were dogged by numerous harmful leaks of classified information--some just as damaging as the one at issue right now. The most galling aspect of such continuing leaks is that senior politicians--perhaps even some of those publicly denouncing them--have been among the worst offenders. High-ranking political appointees within the executive branch, members of Congress, and ranking Congressional staffers have nothing approaching the appreciation of the damage done by leaks involving highly classified intelligence and covert operations possessed by the vast majority of less ranking government professionals assessing...

Paul Sullivan responded to How Should the U.S. Government Deal with the Leaks? on June 11, 2012 09:47 AM

Fri, 08 Jun 2012 15:53:06 GMT

The laws are clear Disclosing classified information to parties who do not hold the proper classification levels is illegal. The laws are clear. Everyone who has access to such information signed a form or series of forms. All sorts of penalties are described quite clearly in the forms. ...

Should the U.S. Do More to Arm Yemen's Military?

Mon, 04 Jun 2012 10:00:00 GMT

Yemeni military officers captured by al-Qaida fighters complained in a recent PBS Frontline report that they were outgunned and out-supplied by the terrorist organization. The U.S. is increasingly active across a spectrum counterterrorism operations in Yemen, and has provided its military more than $300 million worth of aid. But the U.S. provided small arms, pickup trucks, and helicopter spare parts, in addition to "non-lethal" aid. No arms have come from Washington since last year. The Senate has approved the Pentagon's request to restart $75 million in aid, but that may not be approved until the end of the year. Should the U.S. consider doing more to arm Yemen's military sooner? Is the drone and secretive counterterrorism campaign good enough?

Col. W. Patrick Lang responded to Should the U.S. Do More to Arm Yemen's Military? on June 5, 2012 06:24 PM

Fri, 01 Jun 2012 15:39:52 GMT

AQAP are a non-Yemeni group I remember Wayne's visit well. His experience of near death at the hands of the "friendly" Yemen Air force was not unusual. Crashes on take-off were commonplace events, especially in the MIG-21, evidently an unforgiving vehicle. There were many tragi-comical events.that happened during my time there. They included the time I watched a Yemeni pilot fly an MI-8 helicopter into a parked truck on take off. He never really "powered up."The Yemeni commander present berated the Soviet advisor on the scene for the "shoddy equipment." AQAP is an organization largely made up of non-Yemeni Sunni...

Wayne White responded to Should the U.S. Do More to Arm Yemen's Military? on June 5, 2012 04:49 PM

Fri, 01 Jun 2012 15:39:52 GMT

Between a Rock and a Hard Place This question is legitimate because of gains on the part of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in southern Yemen at the expense of the central government (or what passes for one), capitalizing on the extreme instability at the core of Yemeni politics in the wake of the "Arab Awakening." Nonetheless, the practicalities of making a difference on the ground could prove too daunting. Since the Yemeni-based AQAP is the leading al-Qaeda "franchise" with respect to mounting terrorist attacks against the US, its territorial gains in Yemen are difficult to ignore. Should it succeed...

Michael Brenner responded to Should the U.S. Do More to Arm Yemen's Military? on June 5, 2012 10:33 AM

Fri, 01 Jun 2012 15:39:52 GMT

TANKS & FRUIT OF THE LOOM The devil is in the details - so it is said. In this case, the devil is in the concept of national interest that leads us to presume that the United States has a significant interest in Yemen's interminable internecine conflicts. We don't. Since 9/11 we are in the habit of scanning the globe to see if anyone out there is a candidate to have the al-Qaeda terrorist label pinned on him. It's a replay of the old Cold War days when we assigned black hats and white hats on the most improbable characters....

Col. W. Patrick Lang responded to Should the U.S. Do More to Arm Yemen's Military? on June 5, 2012 08:47 AM

Fri, 01 Jun 2012 15:39:52 GMT

The Yemenis are con-men. I was the Defense Attache in Sanaa, North Yemen a generation ago and have returned a number of times to survey the country both before and after unification with South Yemen. When I served in Sanaa, the country was embroiled in a guerrilla war against insurgents sponsored from Aden in the south. In that war the forces of the YAR (north) demonstrated a level of ineptitude that often surprised even as they sought to use the vast array of modern equipment "sold" to them on credit by the USSR, the United States, the UK and various...