ObscureBlog

The Road Dog

2012-05-30T17:37:47Z

If you're looking for a place to start in sports betting, here's as good a place as any: bet on the road dog.

In our previous discussion on NFL win totals, we noted the natural bias of the public to bet on the over, resulting in the market tilting slightly in that direction. While it was not enough on its own to make a blind bet on the under a winning proposition, it resulted in more value existing in under bets.

Vegas bookmaker Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) recently tweeted that "those that call themselves 'dog' or 'favorite' bettors are limiting their opportunity for profit; value comes on both sides." What he is saying is that by blindly ignoring one side or the other, you will miss opportunities to capture value, and this is true. That's why I don't call myself a 'dog' bettor. However, I do find myself betting the dog much more often than the favorite, since that is where the value exists.

To illustrate this point, let's look at results from the last 4 years of football**, 2008-2011. The following results include both regular season and playoffs (week 1 from 2008 is missing in my database):

Road teams ATS: 534-486 (52.3%)
Underdogs ATS*: 538-483 (52.7%)
Road underdogs ATS: 364-317 (53.5%)

ATS = against the spread

*A quick sidebar: If Vegas was getting equal action on each side of these bets, then we would expect this record to be 0.500. This actually illustrates one of the common misunderstandings about Vegas (one that I myself had until a bookmaker set me straight on Chad Millman's "Behind the Bets" podcast). I will often refer to Vegas as a market-maker similar to a stock broker like e-Trade that just takes a cut out of each transaction, and I will continue to do so because it is a helpful analogy, but this isn't exactly right. Bookmakers mostly got their start by being sharp bettors themselves. They not only want to extract their fee, but they want to bet against the public as well. That's why you see that road underdogs are better than 50% ATS. A true market-maker would aim for this number to be 50%, but Vegas can let it drift higher because the majority of bettors continue to take the favorites. Vegas is betting on the underdogs, as they are winning.

**Another quick sidebar: my baseball database is not as extensive as my football database, so my conclusions are not as robust, but I will say this: blindly betting the away team in baseball has been a losing proposition so far this year, but not as much as blindly betting the home team (-$76.20 vs. -$139.75 assuming a standard $10 bet). Blindly betting the underdog to this point in the season has actually been quite profitable: $269.50 in the black vs. $485.44 in the red for the favorites. While I expect that will balance out over the year, the basic point remains: road teams and underdogs provide more opportunity for value.

Assuming a standard vig of -110 on every bet, a winning percentage of 52.4% is required to break even. That means that a completely blind system of betting road underdogs was profitable over the last 4 years of NFL games. Not terribly profitable, but also not terribly time-consuming either. Is this team an underdog? Are they on the road? Done and done.

The system I use is 55.6% over that same time span, albeit only betting on 70% of games. (I don't bet on every game, because if the game is priced right, then the cost of the vig means there is no value to be extracted. Think of it like a stock that is priced right - it isn't going to go up, so after I pay a broker $20 to buy it and then sell it at some point down the road, all I've done is lose $20.) This means that by refining your system with additional information - finding additional value that exists beyond these basics - you can further extend your lead on the betting public and, by proxy, Vegas.

Sizing up the 2012 NFL win totals

2012-05-25T16:41:29Z

Here's the first thing you need to know about betting win totals in the NFL: when in doubt, take the under. Remember, everyone likes to talk about beating Vegas, but talking about Vegas is like talking about beating eTrade. They are just making a market and taking a cut. The public, and their expectations about how a team will perform, is what truly sets the market. The public is who you have to beat.

Why take the under? Because the public likes the overs. It's a simple matter of math: unless the New York Giants beat a team of gridiron-loving aliens Space-Jam style, the NFL will finish every year with a .500 record: 256 wins, 256 losses. But, if you add up the win totals for every team that were just published by Cantor sportsbook, you don't get 256. You get 262.5.

So is beating the house just a simple matter of taking every under? No, because you have to pay Vegas for the privilege of betting on their market, also called the vig. If you were to bet every single under this year, the expected bet value is -90%. (Betting the over, by contrast, would have an expected outcome of -250%.)

Let me quickly define expected bet value. Obviously, every bet is either a win or lose. Expected bet value is, if we could make the bet multiple times, how much we would win on average. A bet with a positive value is what we are after. As long as we make enough of them and do the work right, the individual outcomes don't matter; we will come out on top in the end. In investing, we would call this an expected ROI, or return on investment.

We have to be smart about which teams we take. To that end, I have calculated expected win totals AND 95% confidence intervals for each team. The confidence interval is just as important as the win total, because it will change my opinion about whether to bet a number depending on if the vig is -110 or -130. Put simply, the more confident I am that a team can beat the total, the higher the expected bet value, and the more likely I am to take it. Here are my top 10 bets.

(Full disclosure: Note that, while I will be revisiting these bets throughout the year, I don't plan on actually laying any money on these myself, as this is a new, as-yet-untested betting system I am trying out here. Plus, I don't like tying up any significant portion of my bankroll on bets that don't pay out for 8 months.)

10. Atlanta Falcons OVER 9 wins (+105)
Last year: 10-6
This year: 9-7
Expected bet value: 7.3%

Yes, after talking about unders for 500 words, I'm starting off the an over bet. Don't worry, the unders are coming later. I've actually got 4 overs and 6 unders in my 10 bets here, but the unders are all higher expected value. This bet is a function of the +105 moneyline. The most likely outcome for Atlanta, in my estimation, is 9-10 wins this year. However, because Vegas is paying you to take this side of the bet - everybody else wants the under - the slightly better than 50/50 shot of winning has a positive expected value outcome.

9. Miami Dolphins OVER 7.5 wins (-110)
Last year: 6-10
This year projection: 9-7
Expected bet value: 7.7%

In general, there are three reasons I'll bet a team: they were better/worse than everyone thought last year; their strength of schedule changed significantly between this year and last year; or an offseason roster change has resulted in the team being over/under valued. Miami falls into category 1: they were an unlucky 9-7 team last year.

8. New Orleans OVER 10 wins (-125)
Last year: 13-3
This year projection: 12-4
Expected bet value: 13.3%

Here's the biggest category 3 change on the board. The Saint's offseason turmoil is well documented. Head coach suspended, multiple players suspended, and QB Drew Brees still isn't under contract. However, they still play in an incredibly easy division and Brees, one way or another, will be back. I see a less than 10% chance that they go 9-7 or worse.

7. Kansas City UNDER 8 wins (-110)
Last year: 7-9
This year projection: 5-11
Expected bet value: 15.0%

KC was lucky to even get to 7 wins last year, grabbing a couple of late season victories after changing head coaches. Maybe Todd Haley was the problem, but I don't think Romeo Crennel is the solution.

6. Tampa Bay UNDER 6 wins (-120)
Last year: 4-12
This year projection: 5-11
Expected bet value: 16.2%

Firing the worst head coach in football was probably worth a win, but that's all I'm crediting them with.

5. San Fransisco OVER 10 wins (+105)
Last year: 12-4
This year projection: 11-5
Expected bet value: 17.8%

This is my last over bet on the board, and I was honestly surprised to see it one float to the top. So surprised, in fact, I had to go back to their schedule to see where their wins will come from. If they go 6-0 in their weak division, they have to go 4-6 against GB, DET, MIN, NYJ, BUF, NYG, CHI, NO, MIA, and NE. MIN, NYJ, and BUF are Ws. GB (away) and NE (away) are probably losses. That leaves them to win one of NYG, DET, and CHI at home.

If you have anymore doubt, look at that moneyline: +105. That means the public, who LOVES to bet overs, is fading SF this year. If you are on the wrong side of the public, you are probably doing it right.

5. Indianapolis UNDER 5.5 wins (-135)
Last year: 2-14
This year projection: 4-12
Expected bet value: 21.7%

Swap in Andrew Luck for Curtis Painter last year, does this team get 4 more wins? I don't think so.

3. New York Giants UNDER 9.5 wins (-120)
Last year: 9-7
This year projection: 7-9
Expected bet value: 23.9%

This one hurts me, but setting aside their glorious postseason last year, NOBODY thought this was a good team last year. They were one Tony Romo lob pass from staying home this past offseason, and probably firing their coach. Plus, this year the schedule gets tougher - in fact, they have what I figure to be the toughest schedule in the NFL this year; their out of division schedule includes games against GB, PIT, BAL, SF, and NO. They still play in one of the toughest divisions in football. I'll be delighted to be wrong about this one, but expectations are low.

2. Denver UNDER 9.5 wins (-120)
Last year: 8-8
This year projection: 6-10
Expected bet value: 25.2%

I know, I know, Peyton Manning. 6-10 might be low, but 10-6 is WAY too high. We all know that Denver was lucky to even get to 8 wins last year. Here's an over/under for you: how many games until Manning's neck explodes?

1. St. Louis UNDER 6 wins (-120)
Last year: 2-14
This year projection: 3-13
Expected bet value: 35.4%

Sam Bradford, aka David Bromstad from HGTV's Color Splash, is going to be out of the league in 2 years. They were terrible last year, and have the second toughest schedule in football this year, with two divisional matchups against SF, plus GB, NE, and DET. In fact, the only truly bad team they have on the schedule is TB, and that game is on the road. St. Louis fan(s), you have a rough season ahead.

The MLB Gambling Scene, quarter year edition

2012-05-23T21:38:02Z

[Note: I am tweeting my baseball gambling picks every day from @obscuresports99 on Twitter. As of this writing, I am +14.4 betting units on the season, although I have been predictably lackluster since making my picks public.]

Gambling on baseball is a bit different from gambling on football. In football, betting is usually discussed based on point spreads: if I bet the Giants +3.5 in the Super Bowl against the Patriots, then that means that the winner for gambling purposes is determined by adding 3.5 points to the Giants final score and seeing who has more points.

Every year, there are some surprises - a team doing better than they were expected to. In gambling circles, you'll hear about a team's ATS, or against the spread, record. If I team goes 11-5 ATS, that means that betting on them all year was a winning proposition. Since Vegas doesn't like when you have winning propositions, they want every team to finish 8-8 ATS, meaning that they make money.

In baseball, we have to talk about surprising teams a little differently because we bet the moneyline. Today, for example, the Yankees moneyline to beat the Royals is -210. That means that, to win $1.00 on the Yankees, you have to risk $2.10. Conversely, the Royals are +185. Risking $1.00 on the Royals will win you $1.85.

To talk about the surprising teams to bet on in baseball, we'll talk about what I'm calling their bet on and bet off value (real gamblers may have a word for this, but I don't know what it is). Bet on value is defined as the amount of money you would win if you bet on a team every game. Bet off value is defined as the amount of money you would win if you bet against a team every game. First, here are the top 5 bet on teams so far this year.

1. Baltimore (+1082)
2. NY Mets (+961)
3. LA Dodgers (+858)
4. Oakland (+699)
5. Tampa Bay (+505)

What do these teams have in common? In the case of Baltimore and the Mets, they were supposed to stink but have surprised everybody this year by contending in their divisions. Baltimore especially has exceeded expectations, leading the competitive AL East. This is also true of Oakland, who are only .500 but were supposed to be much worse. The Dodgers and Tampa Bay were expected to be good, but not necessarily this good. The Dodgers, in particular, sport the best record in baseball. In other words, making this list isn't necessarily just formerly bad teams being good. It's more a matter of expectations vs. reality. I was personally surprised to not see Washington on this list. They were bad last year, and good this year. But because that was widely expected, Vegas has them more accurately priced.

Here are the top 5 bet off teams:

1. Colorado (+1392)
2. LA Angels (+883)
3. NY Yankees (+765)
4. Philadelphia (+622)
5. Milwaukee (+546)

Oof. I especially feel the pain of Philadelphia, since I have personally overvalued them this year (even though the Yankees are my team, I have actually had positive outcomes wagering on them if gambling were legal). The Angels are obviously a direct result of expectations vs. reality of Albert Pujols in particular. They were supposed to be a juggernaut, but instead sit in last place in their division, 6 games below .500.

If you are curious, here are the top 5 teams I have made money on this year if gambling were legal:

1. Kansas City (by a country mile, I might add)
2. NY Mets
3. NY Yankees
4. Arizona
5. Seattle

And here are the 5 that have given me the most heartburn

1. Philadelphia (and again, not even close to #2)
2. Milwaukee
3. Texas
4. Pittsburgh
5. San Diego

The Keystone XL pipeline will not make gas cheaper

2012-03-21T22:58:12Z

[Oh look! A wild blog post has appeared! This in no way is a signal of my intentions to write more regularly.]

The Keystone XL pipeline will, as currently routed, put at risk the Ogallala aquifer, which provides freshwater to most of the Great Plains. With any route, it will increase the exploitation of the Alberta tar sands, one of the foulest forms of energy available on the planet. This, we have been told, is necessary because gasoline prices are going up (and also, somehow, jobs).

The price of gasoline is a complex issue, to say the least. The regional cost of oil, pipeline capacity and the economics of refinery interact in ways that can be difficult to understand. This is why I am not sure if politicians claiming the Keystone XL pipeline will make the cost of gas go down are lying, or if they are stupid.

(Programming note: the blog from here on in gets kind of wonky, so I'm going to summarize here in analogy form. Let's say that you are at a party by yourself with 10 girls. You have your pick of the girls, and can dance with more attractive ones than if you otherwise could. The Keystone XL pipeline is like Mitt Romney showing up to that party with a bunch of his bros, saying "Hey, this party needed more people." NO IT DIDN'T MITT ROMNEY.)

The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration publishes several highly informative products that can help an interested party understand what is going on. On their Today In Energy blog, they published a piece on the economics of refineries that is a great place to break into the topic.

When we hear on the news that a barrel of oil costs $100, what is actually being reported is the price of a barrel of Brent crude delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma. This same oil delivered to another location, such as a refinery on the East Coast, would have a different price; a different oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma would have a different price as well.

In the above linked article from the EIA, it is stated that the utilization of East Coast refinery capacity has dropped over the past 6 years from an average of 93% to 68% because of a "$16-per-barrel premium over [West Texas Intermediate] spot prices in 2011." That is, the East Coast refineries need to buy more expensive oil than what is available to refineries in other areas. As a result, the gasoline produced by many of these refineries produce is not profitable, and they have been idled.

The article further states: "Midwest refineries benefitted from supplies of less expensive crude oil coming from Canada and increased production in the Bakken formation."

Which brings us to the Keystone XL pipeline. The existing Keystone Pipeline brings product from Alberta's oil sands to several refineries throughout the US, ending at the distribution terminal in Cushing, Oklahoma. The first phase of the proposed extension (already under construction) will continue the pipeline from Cushing to Houston and Port Arthur, Texas. The second phase of the proposed extension will increase the carrying capacity out of Canada. The first phase of the extension will provide a route for oil production in Canada's oil sands, as well as the Bakken formation in the Dakotas, to reach the Gulf Coast, and from there world oil markets.

It is this last point that must be understood. Look again at where refinery utilization has dropped: on the coasts. This oil pipeline does nothing to increase oil transportation capacity to the coastal refineries specifically. Instead, it increases the ability of currently landlocked oil production to be sold on the world market. The result will be more expensive gasoline. Here is the proof:

This chart illustrates the prices of three crude oil indices: Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), and Bakken. The reason WTI and Bakken are cheaper than Brent is that the indices are based on delivery to Cushing, Oklahoma. However, Brent is used as the trading index because it is sold globally; it is produced in the North Sea and can be easily shipped by tanker. As a result, there is more global demand for it, and it sells at a premium to WTI and Bakken, which must pass through transportation bottlenecks. You'll notice, however, that this premium for Brent narrowed between October and November of last year. What happened?

The owners of the Seaway pipeline, which currently carries crude oil from Freeport to Cushing, announced that flow through the pipeline would be reversed to help alleviate this bottleneck. As a result, the price difference between Brent and WTI narrowed. But what's important is the way in which this narrowing occurred: WTI and Bakken got more expensive.

This is what will happen if Keystone XL is built. Oil that is currently only available to US markets in the Midwest and on the Gulf Coast will become more of a global commodity. The price will go up, not down. And the price of gasoline will follow.

NFL 2011 Suicide Pools, Week 15

2011-12-15T01:01:41Z

Through another week, although San Fransisco's loss made my top 5 picks only an 80% proposition. Seattle kept my new winning streak going.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, ~~NY Giants~~, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, ~~Kansas City~~, ~~Philadelphia~~, New England, Cincinnati, San Fransisco, Seattle

Green Bay over Kansas City (85%): I honestly think this is an overstatement of Kansas City's chances now that they have fired a new coach, and replaced him with Cleveland castoff Romeo Crennel. And I still have Green Bay available! But you don't. Let's see what else is on the list.

Cincinatti over St. Louis (81%): That win over New Orleans seems a long time ago, doesn't it, St. Louis fan(s)?

New Orleans over Minnesota (80%): This one smells fishy. New Orleans has been a different team away from home.

Tennessee over Indy (79%): Dan Orlovsky is now 0-18 as a starting quarterback.

Dallas over Tampa Bay (78%): Dallas just better hope they up by more than 12 with 4 minutes to go.

The pick: Green Bay

NFL 2011 Suicide Pools, Week 14

2011-12-09T00:13:53Z

Last week's third victory in a row was sullied by my first top-5 pick loss. Chicago, behind Matt Forte's torn knee and Tyler Palko's hail mary toss at the end of the first half, went down (and took poor Rose with them). Still, my pick of San Fransisco was on point, and we are 14/15 in the last three weeks. Let's keep it going.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, ~~NY Giants~~, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, ~~Kansas City~~, ~~Philadelphia~~, New England, Cincinnati, San Fransisco

So: if you have Green Bay, New England, San Fransisco, Baltimore, or Pittsburgh left? Congratulations. That's 4 of the 5 top teams (plus Pittsburgh at #6). So, who is that mystery team left in the top 5? Any guess? At all?

I'll give you a minute.

(Nope, it isn't the Jets, Texans, Lions, Saints, Falcons, or Broncos).

Still stumped? It's Seattle!

Yes, the Seahawks host lowly St. Louis on Monday night. That's my pick. The goddamned Seahawks.

NFL 2011 Suicide Pools, Week 13

2011-12-01T02:11:49Z

2 in a row! (pelvic thrust)

Not just 2 in a row, but another 5/5 week makes it 10/10! (continued pelvic thrusting) Let's keep it rolling. Keep that pelvis rolling.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, ~~NY Giants~~, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, ~~Kansas City~~, ~~Philadelphia~~, New England, Cincinnati

San Fransisco over St. Louis (90.8%): The best pick on the board, IMO. San Fran is at home, coming off a mini-bye week and with new motivation after a painful loss at Baltimore. The Rams are going to get steamrolled.

New England over Indy (90.4%): I've already used New England, but if you've got them left, you won't go wrong picking Tom Brady and Bill Belichick against ~~Curtis Painter~~ Dan Orlovsky. Orlovsky is a quarterback most famous for scrambling out of the back of the end zone for a safety while doing his part for the 0-16 Detroit Lions a few years back.

Chicago over Kansas City (82.2%): Another case of my system not necessarily understanding the impact of a backup quarterback. Although I do still expect Chicago's defense to outscore Tyler Palko and the Chiefs offense.

Baltimore over Cleveland (79.3%): B-more is also off of a mini-Thanksgiving bye week. Cleveland, meanwhile, almost spoiled my party last week, the frisky little bastards.

Green Bay over NY Giants (77.4%): Gah, I do have the Packers available. It's too painful to think about.

The pick: San Fransisco

NFL 2011 Suicide Pools, Week 12

2011-11-23T15:31:18Z

That's more like it, baby. Not only did my picks of Green Bay, New England, Dallas, San Fransisco, and Detroit go 5/5, but my new and improved system correctly picked the game winner in 11 out of 14 games played last week. My only misses were the NY Giants, NY Jets (Tebow!!!!) and Buffalo. So, where is our new and improved method taking us this week? Let's find out.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, ~~NY Giants~~, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, ~~Kansas City~~, ~~Philadelphia~~, New England

Houston over Jacksonville (85%): Here is the problem with a completely historically based method; it doesn't know about things like injured quarterbacks and good run defenses. My brain is firing off all kinds of alarm bells. Divisional game! Road game! Matt Leinert! Let's see what our other options are.

Pittsburgh over Kansas City (82%): KC actually looked frisky for a half against New England. Punt return touchdowns always make the score look crazier than the game might have suggested. Still, KC couldn't move the ball at all and has looked terrible in three straight games. Too bad I already used Pittsburgh. Let's keep looking.

Carolina over Indy (76%): Loving road teams this week, apparently! Carolina looked primed for the upset against Detroit last week, until their defense let them down. They are, Cam Newton or no, still a bad team. But they aren't on pace for historical badness like Indy. Definitely worth a look.

Arizona over St. Louis (73%): St. Louis has not gotten enough credit for how bad they have been this year. Maybe Spagnuolo wants his old job back as the Giants defensive coordinator? Anyway, I've already used Arizona.

Cincinnati over Cleveland (72%): Now THIS is an interesting play. By all measures other than running the football, Andy Dalton has actually been a better QB than Cam Newton this year. Do we still not believe in them?

Since there are other viable options on the table, I'm giving Houston at least a week to prove they can be competent with Leinert under center. And, I did just say Dalton has been better than Newton this year, right?

The pick: Cincinnati

NFL 2011 Suicide Pools, Week 11

2011-11-19T20:39:22Z

Time to re-evaluate things.

Now, first things first: a man admits when he has made mistakes, and clearly, I have made a few here this year. While I still think my pick of the Giants was defensible, clearly Kansas City and Philadelphia are not good teams. It is a fools errand to stake your suicide pool life on bad teams. But more importantly, I have been using SYSTEMS approach to this when I should be using a MATHEMATICAL approach. We are changing gears and taking things up a notch. My mathematical approach will be based on the following basic assumptions.

The first: a team's scoring differential is a better description of its relative skill than its won-loss record. A MODIFIED won-loss record can be calculated using a team's scoring differential and Bill James Pythagorean expectation formula.

The second: the odds of a team winning a particular matchup can be roughly calculated based on the MODIFIED won-loss record using the log5 method, also developed by James.

What does this approach tell us about the matchups this week? Here, according to this approach, are the top 5 matchups to consider this week.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, ~~NY Giants~~, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, ~~Kansas City~~, ~~Philadelphia~~

#1: Green Bay over Tampa Bay. Now, obviously, we don't need some fancy formula to tell us Green Bay is a powerhouse. What this does tell us is that they have the highest odds of winning this week, at 87%.

#2: New England over Kansas City (80%). And that's before we consider the fact that KC is starting their backup quarterback!.

#3: San Fransisco over Arizona (79%). The old system would scare us off this matchup because it is a divisional game. My eyes tell me Arizona has looked frisky. And since I still have NE and GB on my (admittedly marked up) board, I'll steer clear for now.

#4: Detroit over Carolina (74%). I've used Detroit, but it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

#5: Dallas over Washington (72%). Not only a divisional game, but a road game.

For what it's worth, the system predicted the Jets as a 61% favorite over the Broncos. Of course, some mitigating factors (short week for the Jets, road game for the Jets, Jesus for the Broncos) would have indicated that the Jets might be in more trouble than that.

Too close to mess with: Buffalo (58%) against Miami, Cleveland (51%) against Jacksonville, Baltimore (57%) against Cincinnati, Atlanta (50%) against Tennessee.

The pick: New England

NFL 2011 Suicide Pools, Week 10

2011-11-11T00:05:54Z

What made last week's loss by Kansas City even more painful? In my Yahoo picks pool (where we don't pick against the spread but assign each game confidence points), I picked 11/14 games correctly last week. Denver over Oakland, Chicago over Philly, Arizona over St. Louis, the Giants over New England? Got all of those right. But my suicide pool pick shat the bed.

(Before the game, Daytrader told me it was a bad pick because it was a trap game. But was it any more of a trap game than, say, Dallas against Seattle or San Fransisco against Washington , both of whom won last week? Of course not. Trap games, as Aaron Schatz has shown, don't actually exist. At least, that is what I tell myself to get to sleep now.)

Anyway, just because I've been eliminated doesn't mean I can't continue to vicariously enjoy participation in the pool by making suggestions to you, the reader.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, ~~NY Giants~~, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, ~~Kansas City~~

Philadelphia over Arizona: Well, if I didn't get eliminated last week, it just might happen this week. There are only two match ups against a winning team vs. a losing team this week: Packers vs. Vikings, and Ravens at Seahawks. I've already used the Ravens, and Vikings vs. Packers is a divisional matchup. So that leaves us to pick against a winning team, or for a losing team. Philadelphia is the most attractive of the losing teams. There really isn't that much else to say this week, unless you want to take Jacksonville on the road at Indy or Cleveland hosting St. Louis.

The pick: Philadelphia

NFL 2011 Suicide Pools, Week 9

2011-11-03T01:20:19Z

A near miss last week as Baltimore took an extra half to shake off the doldrums from its Monday night egg laying in week 7. Still, I made out better than anyone foolish enough to pick New Orleans (on the road) or the Panthers (showing why they are a losing team). We'll stick with last week's process of identifying who the bad teams are playing and rolling from their.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, ~~NY Giants~~, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore

The zero win teams are Miami and the Colts. Miami is on the road against Kansas City. KC is playing an inferior non-divisional opponent at home. It looks like a good pick. But I am concerned about letdown potential after an emotional Monday night win against division rival San Diego.

The Colts are at home, hosting Atlanta off their bye week. I have Atlanta available, but we saw what happened to New Orleans, a road favorite last week. On the other hand, Atlanta is coming off an extra week and shouldn't be caught looking ahead here. Let's put a pin in this one too.

The one win teams are Arizona and St. Louis. And they are playing each other! So much for that.

The two win teams are Minnesota, Seattle, Denver, Carolina, and Jacksonville. Three of them (MIN, CAR, and JAX) are on their byes this week. That leaves Seattle (on the road against Dallas) and Denver (at Oakland). Oakland is playing a division rival, as well as still breaking in "new" quarterback Carson Palmer, so they are out. Seattle is playing Dallas, who stinks. Plus, they already burned me once.

Which takes us back to Kansas City or Atlanta. The question: do I violate one of my guidelines (don't take a team on the road) or do I take the home team that might be in a letdown game?

Screw it. If I'm going out, I'm going out on my own terms.

The pick: Kansas City

NFL 2011 Suicide Pools, Week 8

2011-10-27T00:45:17Z

Got a bit caught up last week and wasn't able to post. Of course, if you needed my advice to take New Orleans last week, then you are likely already out of your pool and you can stop reading now.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, ~~NY Giants~~, Pittsburgh, New Orleans

Now that we have 7 weeks completed, time for a shift in strategy. There are three teams with zero wins (Rams, Dolphins, and Colts); and two teams with one win (Cardinals and Vikings). Suffice it to say, if you have been picking against these teams, you are doing well for your self. (If you are like me and have successfully used one of these teams, give yourself an extra pat on the back.) So let's check in on who these five teams are playing.

Cardinals: Coming off their bi-week for an early afternoon road game against a Baltimore team looking to make up for an embarrassing Monday night no-show in Jacksonville. Did you know that the NFL has instituted new restrictions this year on teams practicing during their bi-week, and that teams are now 3-6 coming off of the extra rest?

Colts: On the road against division rival Tennessee, who I have already used. No dice.

Dolphins: On the road against the Giants, who are coming off of their bi-week. I have already used them. No dice. But if you do have them available, I'd still be cautious, due to the aforementioned post bi-week doldrums being exhibited in the NFL this year.

Minnesota: On the road against the Panthers. I don't like picking teams under .500 if I can avoid it, so I'll pass.

St. Louis: Hosting the Saints, who I have already used. Plus I don't like taking teams on the road. No dice.

That pretty much narrows it down to Baltimore. San Fransisco coming off their bi at home against Cleveland will likely get some play as well, but I DID just say something about the bi week teams this year, didn't I?

The pick: Baltimore Ravens

NFL 2011 Suicide Pools, Week 6

2011-10-13T00:24:04Z

So, if you are like me, and you are in a two-strike suicide pool where everybody picked the Giants last week, then that loss didn't hurt too bad. However, if you are in a one strike pool or, like me, are a Giants fan, then last week hurt like a motherfucker.

What hurts just a little bit more (other than my second choice, the Niners, destroyed the Bucs last week) is that every week, I have avoided picking the consensus choice. The one week that I go in on the group favorite, I got burned. Is there a lesson there? Let's find out.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, ~~NY Giants~~

Green Bay over St. Louis: When I initially saw this game, I thought this would definitely be my pick for the week. But then I remembered the emotional abuse I took last week at the hands of Victor Cruz, and reconsidered. Here we have a Green Bay team off an emotional Sunday night road win against a playoff opponent from last year facing off against an ostensibly terrible team that started the season with designs on winning their division AND coming off a bi week. All primary signs go. All secondary signs stay think twice. I'm thinking twice.

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville: Aaah, here we are. Pittsburgh, despite last week's whupping of Tennessee, still needs to play hard to keep up with Baltimore in their division. Jacksonville actively seems to be trying to get run out of town so they can move to LA already.

Bengals over Colts: Okay, so here's the deal. I think that Indy is going to, at some point, decide that the season is a loss and go all in trying to get the first pick and draft Peyton's heir apparent in Andrew Luck. However, they played at least one competent half of football last week, so they may think they can still turn this ship around. The sign that they have thrown in the towel will be when defensive end Dwight Freeney stops playing through his rib injury. Right now, he's still listed as probable. So I'm staying away.

Stay away from: NY Jets over Dolphins (Sparano is coming off the bi-week with his job on the line, and the Jets may just not be very good, plus its a divisional game); Falcons over Panthers (despite their 1-4 record, the Panthers are a scary team to bet against); Patriots over Cowboys (Dallas has had a chance to heal coming off the bi-week).

The pick: Pittsburgh

NFL 2011 Suicide Pools, Week 5

2011-10-09T15:49:50Z

You can blame the lateness of this posting on Canada. But there is still time to change your picks based on my great advice! We are 4-0 on the season. Let's keep it rolling.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay (record: 4-0)

NY Giants over Seattle: The bandwagon pick of the week. Now, I usually try to avoid the bandwagon pick of the week, since there isn't much upside if you and everybody else gets through on the same team. However, there is the upside of actually getting through. With the bye weeks kicking in, the pickings become slimmer, and this week all signs point to the Giants (home team with a better record against a west coast team playing an early east coast game - plus Seattle has sucked on the road for years - plus Tavaris Jackson against the Giants pass rush - plus Eli is quietly having his best season statistically so far).

Buffalo over Philly: Buffalo fell into the classic trap game last week, playing on the road against a weak opponent after an emotional win against the bully in their division. You'd expect them to bounce back this week. On the other hand, Philly, after all the pre-season hype, has their backs against the walls. If they lose this one, I don't see any choice but to write them off.

Houston over Oakland: Looked like a possibility until Al Davis died. Will Oakland play better now that his ghastly visage is restricted to their nightmares, and not their waking hours as well?

San Fransisco over Tampa Bay: I can't decide if San Fran is for real yet. Their wins look impressive on paper, including Dallas and at Philly. On the other hand, their quarterback is still Alex Smith.

Stay away from: New Orleans at Carolina (divisional road game, plus Cam Newton is going to light up the bad Saints pass defense); KC and Indy (Indy isn't going to go 0-16, right? I say this is one of their 3 wins this season); San Diego at Denver (divisional road game); New England over Jets (potential bounce back game for the Jets, and looks to me like a bad matchup for New England - specifically, New England doesn't have the running game or pass rush to take advantage of the Jets front seven, and the Jets pass defense has already shown it can shut down Brady).

The pick: NY Giants

NFL 2011 Suicide Pools, Week 4

2011-09-29T01:48:39Z

Last week was horribly predictable. All the favorites came through. Of course, if you listened to me, you didn't need to burn Pittsburgh or San Diego yet, and are still sitting on a cache of great teams to work through the season. The question is, do we need to use one this week? Let's take a look at the matchups.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee (Record: 3-0)

Chicago over Carolina: Chicago is a team with playoff aspirations, coming off of a bruising loss to division rival Green Bay. Carolina is still Carolina. Serious consideration - but are we worried about a bounce back game from Cam Newton, after last week's 150-yard fizzle in the slop?

Kansas City over Minnesota: Both of these teams are 0-3. Minnesota has blown three straight double digit leads. Kansas City hasn't even sniffed a lead yet. It's tempting after watching KC play San Diego close on the road last week, but I prefer my suicide picks to actually have wins before I pick them. Call me crazy.

Tampa Bay over Indianapolis: It can't be good for Peyton's neck for him to be repeatedly smashing his head against the wall watching Curtis Painter play.

Green Bay over Denver: The game everybody will be betting on this week.

STAY AWAY FROM...

Philadelphia over San Fransisco - SF actually has a better record.

Buffalo over Cincinnati - the very definition of a trap game.

Houston over Pittsburgh - the Texans mid-September swoon is already in full swing.

The safe picks feel like Green Bay and Chicago. But after watching the Sunday night game last week, there really is only one play to make here.

The pick: Tampa Bay over Indianapolis