I’m reasonably sure that the Cubs won’t be making any more major free agent signings at this point, particularly since the good ones are mostly gone from the last time I wondered about this. If I had to guess, it’ll be mostly scraping the barrel for some pitching (here’s the list of remaining players from MLBTR), though there are a few intriguing bats still looking for work. We can probably safely assume that the team will be made up of guys in camp barring a late surprise claim (like the Cubs playing waiver yo-yo with Ben Cowles).

As usual, here’s the official Cubs roster, currently full, along with the notes from Arizona Phil and FanGraphs’ roster resource page. They’ve already put Shelby Miller on the 60-day IL, and it’s probably just a matter of time before Justin Steele (maybe, depending on how optimistic the Cubs are) and Tyler Austin (not that we cared all that much but it sucks that he had a major surgery in a spring that he probably wanted to show what he could do) join him to open up another couple spots for the potential non-roster guys who make the Opening Day squad. We’ll do the usual bit with 13 pitchers (the maximum allowed) and 13 position players.

Starters (5)

• Matthew Boyd
• Cade Horton
• Shota Imanaga
• Edward Cabrera
• Jameson Taillon

This hasn’t changed, and we would like guys like Shota and Taillon to stop throwing the “give up a home run” pitch, but also something about spring training working on stuff and Arizona being one step removed from the moon or Colorado.

Bullpen (8)

• Hunter Harvey
• Caleb Thielbar
• Phil Maton
• Hoby Milner
• Jacob Webb
• Daniel Palencia
• Colin Rea
• Javier Assad

The general thoughts here are who 1) got paid some substantial-ish amount of money, 2) who can’t be optioned, and 3) who doesn’t suck and/or has shown in the past that they are useful. Having the rest of the 40-man bullpen guys being optionable helps a lot in case of injury, and there is still a chance that the Cubs decide to option Assad to keep him stretched out in Iowa so they can carry another reliever who shows out and probably has a minor league opt out date in their contract.

Catchers (3*)

• Carson Kelly
• Miguel Amaya
• Moises Ballesteros

All three guys have seen practice game action so far without much incident, and Ballesteros, despite being delayed by visa issues, even got into a game as catcher and got some rave reviews there, so we can reasonably assume that if the bat continues to play, they’ll consider Mo Baller a third catcher* when he isn’t DHing.

Starting Infield (4)

• Michael Busch (1B)
• Nico Hoerner (2B)
• Dansby Swanson (SS)
• Alex Bregman (3B)

Starting Outfield (3)

• Ian Happ (LF)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF)
• Seiya Suzuki (RF)

Bench (3, not including whoever is DHing that day or the backup catcher)

• Matt Shaw
• Backup OF
• Backup UTIL?

At this point it’s deciding things like handedness, versatility, and some of that has to contend with whether the guy has options remaining. I’m not entirely sure a guy like Michael Conforto has anything left in the tank, but there’s still a few weeks to go before the final decision needs to be made. We suggested on the pod that Kevin Alcantara should probably play every day at Iowa, and that leaves the decisions down to the following, including Conforto…

• Dylan Carlson (no options remaining, switch hits, OF only pretty much)
• Chas McCormick (has options, right-handed hitter, OF only)
• Justin Dean (has options, right-handed hitter, OF only)

This assumes that Matt Shaw is the all-purpose infield backup, and one wonders whether Carlson or Conforto get some kind of priority due to the options situation and to make sure the bench isn’t too right-handed. Shaw has also been playing the outfield so far, including in center field against Team Italy, so if they think he can at least handle the corners, the final bench spot can get a bit more creative.

The short version:

Suzuki is batting with Shaw on 2B and Bregman on 1B. Seiya bloops one to right that falls in. Shaw slows down thinking it might be caught and ends up on 3B. Bregman ends up there with him, thinking Shaw would score easily. Seiya gets thrown out at second trying to stretch a double in the confusion, then Bregman gets tagged out as the second player on third base. Then for some reason Shaw wanders off the bag and also gets tagged out. You can’t make this shit up (dying laughing).

As I await the coming of NFL playoff games and try to find more work that doesn’t suck (or at least helps pay bills), I ponder the news bits that have come along recently. I don’t think any of the starters are supplanted barring Spring Training mishaps, whether in the lineup or the pitching rotation. However, the recent signing of Chas McCormick and the random lurking of a Dylan Carlson around Cubs camp suggests the team is at least going to give Kevin Alcantara some spring competition, with McCormick one of those Ryan Ludwick reverse throw/bat guys (batting right) and Carlson a switch hitter if that makes any difference, as right now the bench is rather righty-loaded. Someone needs to emerge as the backup outfielder, particularly if Alcantara isn’t ready, or Matt Shaw can’t really handle the outfield or just center field (I feel like he can do it).

Speaking of Shaw, he’s one of the more enticing trade chips and in plenty of rumors, so it makes sense to ponder what happens if he is traded and the Cubs need a backup infielder, particularly one who can handle the middle infield positions. The obvious guys like Willi Castro and Jorge Polanco have already signed (even one-time Cubs legend Nicky Lopez has a minor league deal with the Rockies), and since Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson never want to take a day off (your guess is as good as mine whether that will affect them down the line, but they are getting older and exercise hurts), whoever the Cubs sign would just kind of rot on the bench anyway, so maybe it doesn’t matter. The free agent list compiled by MLB suggests a few names that could be brought into camp, including utility-ish guy Jose Iglesias, Ramon Urias, even former Gold Glove winner but not-good-enough-to-be-a-Rockies Brendan Rodgers. I guess the goal here is to have a guy who can play good defense and hopefully swing a capable bat when called upon in a pinch, without the crater of a floor that was the Brujan/Berti/Workman mess, but again, if they’re not playing that much, maybe it doesn’t matter?

The pitching free agents include qualifying offer-tied guys like Framber Valdez and Zac Gallen, who might as well just go back to their original teams because I’m unsure how willing the Cubs want to give up a pick if either of them do the one-year opt-out plan. My goofy alternative is to just sign one of Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer and see what else they have in the tank, but that could get expensive even if the Cubs are fine going over the luxury tax.

I suppose the best news is that the Cubs mostly did what they needed to and can now sit back to see who falls into their laps, whether it be another signing or trade. It’s kind of nice to have the leverage for a change.

After a bit of preamble blabbing, they finally revealed the results of the 425 ballots (seems like a lot but also a bit low?) and as expected, Carlos Beltrán made it in despite the earlier slog of low voting because of his part in the Astros cheating scandal. But it seemed a matter of time before he got in, as he was so good for so long before he slowed down as he got old. Andruw Jones also made it in with time to spare, despite his career kind of falling off a cliff at the end.

Per the voting results, it seems that Chase Utley is the most likely from the holdovers to get in next time around, though he’d need to pick up another 16% or so of the electorate. We already saw that Manny will drop off the ballot, and Cole Hamels is the only one of the first-time candidates to stay on for next year as everyone else dropped off.

Baseball-Reference has a look at the 2027 ballot (which should update shortly) and first-timers next year will include Buster Posey and Jon Lester.

Anyway, we talked on the last pod about the addition of a couple of key pieces (berselius wrote it up here) and we now have a pretty good look at the roster that is expected to head into spring, and barring injury or asteroid or something, should be pretty close to what we might expect come Opening Day. The 40-man roster is full right now after a couple recent claims, and the official addition of Alex Bregman, and while they can’t put anyone on the 60-day disabled list just yet, we can probably expect a couple of those moves sometime toward the end of spring training, particularly for someone like Justin Steele who is recovering from elbow surgery. We’ll do the usual bit with 13 pitchers (the maximum allowed) and 13 position players.

Starters (5)

• Matthew Boyd
• Cade Horton
• Shota Imanaga
• Edward Cabrera
• Jameson Taillon

This assumes they don’t try to salary dump trade Taillon (I’ve seen it suggested but that seems too desperate of a move) and Colin Rea and Javier Assad work as depth pieces. Justin Steele will be left off for now since he’s not back until like June or so anyway.

Bullpen (8)

• Hunter Harvey
• Caleb Thielbar
• Phil Maton
• Hoby Milner
• Jacob Webb
• Daniel Palencia
• Colin Rea
• Javier Assad

I’m unsure what they actually do with that last spot so I just stuck Assad there. However, AZ Phil suggests that Assad should have options remaining so that may be a plan to have him keep stretched out in Iowa (along with Jordan Wicks) to act as depth. Rea doesn’t have options and it would be stupid to start him in Iowa anyway. The others all either got MLB deals recently, or they’re Daniel Palencia. We’ll see how things shake out during the spring bubble competitions but I can see Assad being the odd guy out while the non-roster invitees duke it out, and they give one or two guys a shot so they don’t lose them just yet.

Catchers (2)

• Carson Kelly
• Miguel Amaya

Pretty easy here, assuming Amaya is fully recovered from his late-season injury.

Starting Infield (4)

• Michael Busch (1B)
• Nico Hoerner (2B)
• Dansby Swanson (SS)
• Alex Bregman (3B)

Starting Outfield (3)

• Ian Happ (LF)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF)
• Seiya Suzuki (RF)

Bench (4, including whoever is DHing that day)

• Moises Ballesteros
• Tyler Austin
• Matt Shaw
• Kevin Alcantara

I imagine Mo Baller is the primary DH now that they traded Owen Caissie. I don’t know if they trade Shaw (I believe that is more likely than Hoerner) but I am making the assumption that they don’t have to and Shaw is staying as the super-utility guy, particularly with some talk of him potentially getting some time in the outfield. Tyler Austin was their cheap signing coming back from overseas so he’ll get the first crack, and I don’t know who the backup outfielder will be, but depending on whether PCA needs more days off, it makes sense to have a CF-capable guy, whether it be Shaw, Kevin, or the recent claim of Justin Dean.

In essence, the Cubs haven’t changed much lineup wise, swapping out Kyle Tucker for Alex Bregman and bolstering their bullpen and rotation, but they do need to find out who’s backing up the infield (if they trade Shaw) and outfield (CF capable would be nice for sure). They seem to be pretty much set with less than a month to go until pitchers and catchers report.

• Cubs acquire RHP Edward Cabrera from Miami for OF Owen Caissie, A-ball SS Cristian Hernandez, and DSL OF Edgardo De Leon.
• Cubs sign 3B Alex Bregman to a five year, $175M deal

My brain has not fully processed these deals, as I’ve been distracted by various NFL related things, but suddenly I have a lot more time to sink my teeth into these for some reason. Weird! Let’s sink our teeth into both of these signings. I might even write something separate about the state of the roster, as I haven’t been following all the bullpen signings over the past few months.

Edward Cabrera

Cabrera is a hard-throwing right-hander who turns 28 this year, and has three years of team control remaining. He’s got great stuff but has had somewhat mixed success so far with the Marlins, though with the usual “It’s the Marlins” grain of salt. He’s currently projected for about a 2 fWAR season next year with an ERA around 4, but let’s look at the trends over the past few years.

The arrow is certainly pointing in the right direction for Cabrera’s walk rate! It is an especially good sign that he those numbers changed without a significant difference in his statcast pitch numbers. His fastball average velo actually ticked up a small amount to 97mph, and also, lol, his changeup clocks in at 93-94. He throws a wide variety of pitches overall, and the only potentially significant change in 2025 was that he started throwing a two-seamer much more often than a four-seamer – it was roughly 28% 4-seam and 9% 2-seam earlier in his career vs 12% 4-seam and 21% 2-seam last year. But given that the velocities are very similar on both it’s possible that this could just be a classification issue. His ground ball rate was in about the same range as the rest of his career. In addition to the crazy fastball/changeup velocities, Cabrera also throws a pretty good (by results) slider and curveball.

Given how things went for the Cubs rotation last year I figured it would be a good idea to check Cabrera’s injury history. He got shelled to start the year in 2024 before going on the 60-day DL with a shoulder impingement. After returning in July, his numbers looked closer to what he put up in 2025. He also missed time on two separate occasions last year with elbow issues, including an elbow sprain in early December. He also missed some time in spring training and the beginning of the 2025 season with blisters. There’s room to grow but the Cubs may not want to push him too-too hard next season.

2026 is Cabrera’s first arb-eligible year, and the Cubs signed him to a $4.45M deal when acquiring him just before the deadline.

I’m excited for this trade – Cabrera has the stuff to be a frontline pitcher, and the Cubs are hoping that he can continue his breakout. But even if he doesn’t take the next step forward he should still be a pretty solid piece in the rotation for the next few years. It’s a bummer to see Caissie go, but the Cubs are dealing from a position of strength for a position of need here, so no complaints (even above and beyond my usual Dombrowski-ness wrt prospects, heh). I hope for Caissie’s sake that he doesn’t become another Matt Murton/Matt Mervis when leaving the org, but he’s ahead of the curve by not being named Matt I guess.

Alex Bregman signs a 5/175 deal

The Cubs get their guy, one offseason later. And while it would have been great if they got him last year for all sorts of reasons, there’s one silver lining – just look at what happened last year.

• The Red Sox signed Bregman
• They pissed off their most prominent player, Rafael Devers
• Devers eventually gets traded to the Giants for a box of baseballs and “Salary Relief”
• Bregman opts out of his contract after one season
• The Red Sox spends nothing in free agency (so far) in the offseason

As a Red Sox hater, I love to see it (dying laughing).

Trolling aside, let’s take a look at Bregman’s profile. This is somewhat out of character for the Cubs, as Bregman is 32 and they’ve usually been resistant to signing older FAs. Obviously there’s some baggage with the whole Astros sign stealing scandal, which was gross. But on the other hand, the people who are most worked up about this are Dodgers fans, so fuck ’em (dying laughing). Here’s Bregman’s numbers over the last four years:

Bregman missed some time with a quad injury last year but has generally been a pretty durable player. He’s only been on the IL three times in his ten year career. Since the best predictor for injuries, even more than age, is the number of past injuries, you love to see it.

Bregman’s deal is for 5/175, which is nominally an AAV of $35M, but as is the case these days there’s a good chunk of it deferred. With the reported $70M deferral, that puts the number closer to $30M and the Cubs under the tax threshold. There’s also a full no-trade clause and no opt-outs, just a regular ol’ deal which you love to see after parsing the Imanaga deal a few years ago (dying laughing).

Mini fun fact is that Bregman is from my current neck of the woods – he grew up in Albuquerque and apparently speaks decent Spanish. Good on him!

I like the deal, even independent of my Matt Shaw opinions. This also strengthens the Cubs bench significantly with Shaw moving into that role, and could also free up Shaw as a trade chip if some other front-line starting pitching becomes available. Of course, the Cubs also lost Tucker so it’s not purely additive to the 2025 roster, and they could maybe use another OF or depth piece. But this was a pretty clear fit for the Cubs, and you love to see the team flexing their financial muscles even more. They won’t do it, but it would be even better if they followed this up by further flexing and bringing back BVS favorite Cody Bellinger.

The bigger news, of course, is that the Cubs are finalizing a trade for Marlins starter Edward Cabrera, who had injury issues as recently as last season, but did end the season throwing the last two starts available to him. When healthy, though, we’re talking about high-90s gas and a changeup (!) that comes at batters in the mid-90s. I’m unsure at this point that the Cubs throw money at the remaining free agent starters (particularly the guys attached to a qualifying offer), but Cabrera does have club control for another three seasons, including 2026. With an arbitration-suppressed salary, that leaves quite a bit of cash for the Cubs (theoretically) to throw at another bat though, and that includes (by my rank order) Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Kyle Tucker, and Cody Bellinger per various rumors.

The Cubs did shore up their bullpen with intriguing arms, albeit arms that probably won’t blow a batter away with pure velocity. But they still need to replace Kyle Tucker’s bat (or just bring back Tucker, I guess), and probably get that starting pitching they’ve been talking about all offseason long. There’s still over a month until spring training starts, though you imagine the Cubs try to do something of note before the Convention in a couple of weeks. So there’s time, but the prolonged wait is frustrating.

Writers Ballot

The new guys:

• Ryan Braun, Shin-Soo Choo, Edwin Encarnación, Gio González, Alex Gordon, Cole Hamels, Matt Kemp, Howie Kendrick, Nick Markakis, Daniel Murphy, Hunter Pence and Rick Porcello

The holdovers:

• Carlos Beltrán | 70.3% | Enters 4th year on ballot
• Andruw Jones | 66.2% | 9th year
• Chase Utley | 39.8% | 3rd year
• Álex Rodríguez | 37.1% | 5th year
• Manny Ramírez | 34.3% | 10th-and-final year
• Andy Pettitte | 27.9% | 8th year
• Félix Hernández | 20.6% | 2nd year
• Bobby Abreu | 19.5% | 7th year
• Jimmy Rollins | 18.0% | 5th year
• Omar Vizquel | 17.8% | 9th year
• Dustin Pedroia | 11.9% | 2nd year
• Mark Buehrle | 11.4% | 6th year
• Francisco Rodríguez | 10.2% | 4th year
• David Wright | 8.1% | 3rd year
• Torii Hunter | 5.1% | 6th year

The new guys are kind of thin, and I feel like only Cole Hamels really stands a chance of getting over the 5% needed to stay on the ballot after this year. Of the holdovers, Manny is probably done, but there is a shot that Beltran and Andruw Jones get in given the thin field this time around.

Contemporary Ballot

This one needs the panel of 16 veterans to vote them in, and let’s take a look at the names first:

• Barry Bonds
• Roger Clemens
• Carlos Delgado
• Jeff Kent
• Don Mattingly
• Dale Murphy
• Gary Sheffield
• Fernando Valenzuela

Depending on how hard-line the voters are on steroids, you can probably expect Bonds and Clemens to be snubbed again, and maybe even Kent and Sheffield. Dale Murphy famously fell off a cliff later in his career but was probably on his way to the Hall of Fame before that, so I kind of feel like this ballot gets him in, along with possibly Mattingly, but those two aren’t as good as Bonds and Clemens were. Standards, right?

We’ll find out the results of the Contemporary ballot on December 7, while the writers must send in their votes by the end of the year and the results will be revealed on January 20.

Soft tossing pitchers don’t last very long in this era of velocity, but Kyle Hendricks found a way to make it work for most of his tenure with the Cubs, and even had a serviceable year in Anaheim of Los Angeles, although that did take him out of Immaculate Grid legend territory. Still, a legendary Cub will likely find a job with his long-time club should he choose to continue working in baseball in some capacity.

Anyway, we know the Toronto Blue Jays, who made the Mariners and their fans miserable again after Game Seven, will host the Dodgers, who did the same to Milwaukee fans by sweeping the Brewers, who decided to troll the Cubs after going the distance against the North Siders. It’s interesting too because in the history of championship matchups between one team that swept against another team that went the full seven, the latter team has always won. I don’t know for sure that this will happen in 2025, given that the Dodgers finally got all their key arms healthy at the right time and the offense can still score, while the Toronto pitching has seemed a bit iffy. It should be a good one, even if the Cubs aren’t involved, as either Canada wins a big prize after many years, or the Dodgers accelerate a lockout because the richest team has won again or something. It could go either way.

Total Relief Pitchers Used on Season 32

Under: 30 including Berti and McGuire but only 29 if you discount Cade Horton’s first appearance where Brad Keller opened and Horton followed with 4 innings.

Who guessed right? Berselius, RC

I think the picking the under suggests you were optimistic about Cubs pitching. Well done B and RC. Though if Jon Berti hadn’t hogged so many of the position-player pitching opportunites…

Nico Hoerner Homers 12

Under: 7 (8 including playoff homer). I still think 12 is doable for him.

Who guessed right? Andcounting, RC

Jamison Taillon K/BB 3.6

Over: 3.63 LOL. If I round to one digit no one gets it because no one picked “neither”

Who guessed right? Berselius, BVS

Seiya SeeYa’s (Yay!!!) 25

Over: 32 Nice season by Seiya.

Who guessed right? Andcounting, Berselius, RC, BVS

Everyone had well-placed faith in Seiya.

Shota SeeYa’s (Boo!!!) 25

Over: 31. Honestly I picked 25 on what I thought was a reach because I wanted a number to equal Seiya’s homers hit. I mean, he was under Seiya’s homer total, but ouch. Just ouch. By the way, in the playoffs, they were equal (3-3). Shota didn’t make the Cubs top 10 season’s of HR allowed, so he’s not Kevin Tapani (2000), Yu Darvish (2019), John Lackey (2017), or Warren Hacker, whoever he was, but 31 is not good. 31 homers was 4.8% of all runs allowed this year by the Cubs staff, and that doesn’t even count whoever was on base.

Who guessed right? Berselius, BVS

Number of third basemen —- Number of pitchers with saves

Third basemen = 7 (Shaw, Castro, Berti, Turner, Workman, Brujan and Nicky Lopez

Savers = 12 (Palencia, Pressly, Kittredge, Keller, Hodge, Rea, Brown, Civale, Thielbar, Flexen, Pomeranz, Wicks). Brown, Rea, Flexen and Civale had 3 inning saves when entering with an 8+ runs. Rea’s save was back against the A’s on March 31 when he came in with a 13-run lead. Even discounting bulk saves, savers outnumbered hot cornerers. But really, are we happy with how large those numbers were for both?

Who guessed right? RC, BVS (Berselius just answered “over” so I guess he guessed right?)

Number of ejections for Craig Counsell 3.5

Under: 3. Maybe the safest pick of all, 6 of 11 years he has been ejected 3 times.

Who guessed right? Andcounting, Berselius, RC, BVS

Couns is so predictable…

Number of MLB games for Caleb Killian 2

Under: 0. He pitched in 9 games in the minors. Funny how quickly we forgot his existence by mid-May.

Who guessed right? Berselius, RC, BVS

I appreciate AC hoping for the Kilian comeback.

Kyle Tucker RBI 100

Way under: 73. Seiya led the team with 103. Cody Bellinger had 98 RBIs with only about 50 more AB’s than King Tuck, Bellinger’s second highest season total in his career. Just saying.

Who guessed right?

Everyone had well-placed faith in Tucker. Wish I’d asked Tucker vs Bellinger RBI totals.

Number of Cubs with 30+ SB 2.5

Under: 1. PCA only. Nico had 29, Tucker had 25.

Who guessed right? Andcounting, Berselius, RC

I really thought the Cubs would run more, even though they were 3^rd in the majors in SBs. Had Tucker not gotten injured, he would have topped 30, and Hoerner hit 30 in the playoffs.

Carson Kelly Triples 1.5

Under: 1. LOL He hit his triple in that A’s game that Rea saved, and this was a guess of whether he’d hit another the rest of the season. Nope.

Who guessed right? Berselius, BVS

Players picked up in trades between now and the trade deadline 2.5

Over 4: Kittredge, Castro, Soroka, Rogers. I guess since Kittredge started a few games, he counted as a starting pitcher acquisition.

Who guessed right? Andcounting, RC

Times BVS references the Bellinger salary dump 100

Under, I think, but mainly because my commenting has tailed off some. But maybe some references in this post put it over. Do those count? Season’s over after all. RC said I was already over by April 3 though, so maybe I was.

Who guessed right? No one, if you believe my comment above, or everyone if you believe RC’s early season accounting.

Times Berselius uses the word “Cromulent” 200

Over, I think. I mean, he used it in the main text of 7 posts this year, and just think of the 100s of comments he probably used it in, like this one: “If only we could rotate in a cromulent supersub through the OF/IF/DH positions, someone like Cody Bellinger.”

Who guessed right? Andcounting, Berselius, RC, BVS

Correct guesses: Omitting the last two…Andcounting (5), Berselius (8 or 9), RC (8), BVS (7)

After stewing for a few hours and sleeping it off, I think mostly what I want to express is gratitude for this year’s Cubs, the memories they gave us, and the friends we made along the way. We’re talking about a team that overcame some devastating injuries, unfathomable slumps, and stupid weather and voodoo to take the best team in baseball to the brink before they ran out of gas. Sometime later we can talk all about whether to keep guys like Shota Imanaga or Kyle Tucker, try to trade Nico Hoerner for the billionth time, or whether Craig and Jed should be fired, but this team was fun the vast majority of the year, had one of the best records in all of baseball, and won a playoff series while going the distance in the following round. This is a good team that I hope they sustain for 2026 and beyond (pending lockouts and all that), but I still maintain a deep gratitude for the year that was. The Cubs were the fourth-best team in the National League, and one of only eight teams in MLB with 90 or more victories in a year that had more parity than any of us expected. They won plenty of games they had no business winning, and did that more often than they lost games they should have won per my accounting. The additions were not super-sexy but still produced better than any of us anticipated, and it is ironic that the sexiest addition of all kind of fizzled at the end of the season. But that speaks to the diversity and the fullness of the team, as you can’t just put your victory eggs in one or two player baskets.

There will be a time and place to talk about payrolls, trades, free agency, and all that once I’m more lucid and had more room to recover from the down of being eliminated. But knowing that this team is hungry for more after such a deep disappointment is encouraging, because it means, hopefully, that they’ll want to get back to this spot, and maybe even get that bye week in their next shot at the big prize. I’d like to think they can do it better than the team who sold their souls to the devil up north, but some pixie dust wouldn’t hurt to help the Cubs along.

Onward to 2026! And pestilence and destitution to the Brewers hopes next round. Go Cubs.

I want to say that in a winner-take-all game, there is room for redemption as we observed with Matthew Boyd in the Game Four start that earned the Cubs one more game. I also think there will be more abrupt moves to prevent major meltdowns, so even if the Cubs elect to start Shota Imanaga or get him an opener, they’ll be more reactive at any sign of trouble or mismatch.

Having do-or-die games all weekend is a ton of fun, and I hope to see even more fun with the Cubs next week.

Tigers versus Mariners – going back to Seattle for the winner-take-all Game 5 after Detroit tied the series in the early game.

Cubs versus Brewers – hoping for good news in Game 4 tomorrow after the Cubs finally scored more than the other team, and more than 3 runs too!

Yankees versus Blue Jays – It’s not looking good in the Bronx, but the Yankees still have some time to try to force Game 5…I don’t think it happens, but you never know.

Dodgers versus Phillies – late game tonight with Philly trying to avoid being swept.

Since time has no meaning, my brain didn’t twig to the fact that Boyd was starting on short rest until about an hour before game time, despite spending a bunch of time crunching the numbers to write the preview and I didn’t even notice. Boyd had absolutely nothing in the tank in this one, and a completely uncharacteristic / Devil Magic induced error by Nico Hoerner turned it from bad to worse.

Counsell’s hands were somewhat tied with their pitching staff injuries – that rib injury to Horton could not have come at a worse time. I would not have felt thrilled with Shawn Camp Memorial Staff MVPs Colin Rea and/or Javy Assad getting a start to open a playoff series, but I would have taken it over Boyd on short rest even aside from these results. Civale and Brown ended up looking decent in mop-up duty, but a capital letters Bullpen Game coming off how hard the pen was worked in the Padres series, given how I only trust about three guys (Palencia/Kittredge/Keller), and even then…

At least at the end of the day, blowout or not it only counts as 0-1 in the standings for the series. Jackson Chourio left the game with a hamstring injury, which may be a re-aggravation of the injury that caused him to miss the entire month of August. There is no word yet if it will knock him out for the rest of the series, but even if he’s diminished that may help the Cubs the rest of the way.

The Brewers clinched the division back on Sep 21, and went 2-4 in their remaining games as they mostly took their foot off the gas, losing series to the Dads and Reds. With the bye it’s been nearly two weeks since they’ve played a game that counts, hopefully that means they’ll come out flat. One can hope!

The Cubs are coming off a wild card series win over the Padres. The pitching and defense looked pretty good! The offense…eh. Though the Padres had the third best pitching in the league, and had by FAR the best bullpen (3.06 ERA vs second best ERA of 3.41), and the Cubs saw a lot of it, and the wind was blowing in for two games, and (fill in a few other excuses). Hopefully they look sharper this series against the Brewers pitching, who have *checks notes* the SECOND best ERA in the league. Yayyyyyyy.

Overall Team Rankings

Team Leaders

Cubs

• OBP: Kyle Tucker (.377)
• ISO: Busch (.261)
• HR: Busch (34)
• R+RBI: PCA (186)
• wRC+: Busch (140)
• BSR: PCA (6.7)
• Defense: PCA (17.5)
• Batter WAR: PCA (5.4)
• SP K/9: Boyd (7.71)
• SP BB/9: Shota (1.62)
• SP ERA: Horton (2.53)
• SP FIP: Horton (3.55)
• RP K/9: Kittredge (13.29)
• RP BB/9: Kittredge (1.25)
• RP ERA: Pomeranz (1.94)
• RP FIP: Kittredge (2.40)
• P WAR: Boyd (3.4)

Beers

• OBP: Andrew Vaughn (.375)
• ISO: Jackson Cheerios (.193)
• HR: Yelich (29)
• R+RBI: Yelich (191)
• wRC+: Vaughn (142)
• BSR: Cherry-o (3.1)
• Defense: Joey Ortiz (13.9)
• Batter WAR: Brice Turang (4.4)
• SP K/9: Misiorowski (11.87)
• SP BB/9: Priester (2.76)
• SP ERA: Peralta (2.70)
• SP FIP: Chad Patrick (3.50)
• RP K/9: Trevor Megill (11.49)
• RP BB/9: Tobias Myers (0.95)
• RP ERA: Abner Uribe (1.75)
• RP FIP: Megill (2.50)
• P WAR: Peralta (3.6)

Who isn’t available?

The Cubs may have dodged a bullet with Bob Minocqua out with a lat strain for this series. The dude came back from a possibly career-ending arm injury, missing nearly two years, and out of the gate pitched like no time had passed at all. Old pal Jose Quintana has been on the shelf with a calf injury but seems likely to return for this series. Catcher William Contreras was literally banged up back in mid-September, taking a hit to his glove hand by a swing and missed a few games after the Brewers clinched. He’s expected to play this series.

On the Cubs side, the biggest name is likely ROY Cade Horton, who is recovering from a broken rib suffered last month. He’s theoretically eligible to return for game five if needed but it sounds like he won’t be called on this series. Miguel Amaya is working out and says he’s ready/available if needed but it sounds like he is not in the plans for now. Owen Caissie is on the concussion IL, and has resumed baseball activities. He should be available if needed.

Random aside to second guess the second guessing

I’ve got no complaints about Counsell leaving in Shota to face Tatis and Machado in game 2. This was only the second time through the order for him, the wind was blowing in, and you gotta let your stars step up against the other teams stars. He missed a pitch and paid for it. Even with the shifting optimal bullpen usage rules in the playoffs I still think it’s the right move, and some of the criticism is kind of insulting to Shota. Even aside from the Shota-ness I still think I’d disagree with the move if it was, say, Colin Rea as the bulk guy there instead.

Game Schedules, potential pitching matchups

K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP listed for all. All games are broadcast on TBS, with Alex Faust and Ron Darling announcing.

Saturday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (7.71, 2.10, 3.21, 4.22) vs Freddy Peralta, RHP (10.39, 3.36, 2.70, 3.65), 1:08 PM CT in West Allis

Boyd looked shaky down the stretch, potentially due to his innings jump, but put a solid outing against the Padres in game one of the WC series. He allowed just two hits in 5.1 innings, but unfortunately one of them was a homer. He made two starts against the Brewers this year, and they knocked him around fairly well to the tune of 9 ER in 10 IP. Hopefully third time is the charm.

The Cubs have seen a lot of Peralta this year, and while I think of him as a Cubs killer they managed to get some licks on him. Overall in four starts, the Cubs scored 8 earnies in 21 innings, while striking out 22 times. One thing I always forget with Peralta is that he rarely goes deep into games because he racks up big pitch counts – he only pitched past the sixth inning in 2 starts out of 33 this year.

I’ll list the rest of the potential starters below since I have no clue how things will line up, (dying laughing). The remaining games are

Monday: 8:08 PM CT in West Allis

Wednesday: 4:08 PM CT in Chicago

Thursday: 8:08 PM CT in Chicago

Saturday Oct 8: 3:38 PM CT in West Allis

Somehow I missed the weird extra rest day between game 1 and 2? This is probably good for the Cubs pitching staff but come on MLB.

Cubs starters

Shota Imanaga, LHP (7.28, 1.93, 3.73, 4.86)

I put most of my thoughts on Shota in my aside earlier in this post. Ride with the guys that got you here, Cubs.

Jameson Taillon, RHP (6.80, 1.87, 3.68, 4.66)

I slagged on Taillon a bit going into the Wild Card series but after looking at his full season numbers, and especially his splits, I’ve been unfair to him. Before his injury in June, he had posted a 4.44 ERA and was giving up a .317 wOBA with 22 home runs in 95 IP. Since his return, he has a 1.57 ERA and opposing .236 wOBA in 34 innings. His new kick change, which he was still refining earlier in the season, has shown up big in his results against lefties, who have a .265 wOBA against him this year vs .320 in his career. I’ll zip any complaints if I see him listed as a probable pitcher this series.

Colin Rea, RHP (7.17, 2.49, 3.95, 4.12)

Rea has been the Shawn Camp Legacy Stealth Team MVP this season, giving tons of cromulent innings. With Horton likely out for the whole series, I would not be surprised to see a piggyback long man start with him and the previous title holder, Javy Assad.

Beers Starters

Quinn Priester, RHP (7.55, 2.86, 3.32, 4.01)

The Brewers traded for Priester in April in what seemed like a desparation move – almost all of their starting pitchers were recently injured or working their way back from an injury suffered in a previous season. Priester was a journeyman who couldn’t even stick with the Pirates and had hung on to the back end of the roster for the Red Sox going in to the 2025 season. So of course the Brewers pick him up and he posts a 3.32 ERA over 157 innings. He faced the Cubs three times this year – the Cubs blew him up for seven runs back in May, and managed to get plenty of batters on the basepaths in his other two starts but had just three runs to show for it.

Jose Quintana, LHP (6.08, 3.42, 3.96, 4.81)

Old pal Q has been bouncing around the league after being jettisioned in the 2021 fire sale, and put up the cromulent numbers that we always hoped for but never quite got in his time with the Cubs. I’ll still defend that trade to my grave, it’s a bummer it did not work out. He’s coming off a calf injury so may not be particularly sharp and/or will likely not go deep into a game. He only faced the Cubs once this year, back in early May, and the Cubs blew him up for six runs and three homers.

Jacob Misiorowski, RHP (11.86, 4.23, 4.36, 3.62)

The bloom is off the rose a bit for The Miz, who may end up being used as a bullpen fireman instead during the postseason. He’s still a strikeout machine but has had a lot more issues with control, leading to big early pitch counts. And also runs.

Chad Patrick, RHP (9.55, 3.01, 3.53, 3.53)

I’m not sure this Madden-AI-generated-name-ass player is real. Fangraphs tells me this guy is a rookie made 23 starts, including a start against the Cubs where he gave up 4 runs in 5 innings back in June. The Brewers mostly used him out of the pen down the stretch so it’s not clear if he might get a start.

Go Cubs. Or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do.

At the end of this wild card series, the Cubs did score more than the other team, pitched better overall, and punched their ticket to the next round. The first bit of satisfaction was the clinching of a postseason spot. Now, they get to keep playing, and we see how far they go. But the question remains whether you can be satisfied with a mere trip to the postseason and a wild card win, or if you want more. I can pretty much guarantee the players themselves want more and will do their best to get more. But I only speak for myself when I say the rest of this postseason is house money. Hope everyone is having fun, there are at least three more games left and here’s hoping things continue to go swimmingly for the Cubs.