The lack of a truly dominant team this year is obvious when you consider the fact that zero squads are on pace for 100 wins. If that occurs, it will be the first time since 2014 that no team reaches that mark in the regular season. In that year, the Los Angeles Angels had the best record in baseball with 98 wins and the two teams that met in the World Series, the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants, were Wild Card teams.

The probability of a lower seed making the World Series has generally increased exponentially since the commissioner added a third Wild Card team to each league in 2022, as evidenced by the six-seed Philadelphia Phillies making the World Series in 2022 and the 84-78 Arizona Diamondbacks catching heat in time for a surprise World Series run of its own in 2023.

With all that in mind, 2024 feels like a ripe year for a surprise team to win the title, or, at the very least, make the fall classic. The best team in the league, the Cleveland Guardians, are 20 games over .500 as of publishing, but that record looks deceiving when you consider that they’ve played around .500 ball over the past two-and-a-half months.

The New York Yankees, meanwhile, feature the best one-two-hitting punch in recent memory, but capricious pitching and glaring holes in the lineup, including the cleanup spot, have caused some bumps in the road (like a losing record in July).

Other front-running teams like the Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, and Dodgers either have an Achilles heel they must address or they carry injury concerns to some of their marquee players.

Since no team wants to take the mantle as a clear favorite to win it all, I feel like now is a good time to look at two possible teams, one in the AL and one in the NL, that could make a surprise run to the World Series this year.

San Diego Padres

I was torn between the Padres and the Grimace Season Mets, but I ultimately had to go with the former for two reasons: an unsurprisingly eager AJ Preller (Padres president of baseball operations) in the offseason and before the trade deadline, and the heartbreaking loss of Kodai Senga to the Mets rotation.

Like most, I felt that the loss of Juan Soto and Cy Young winner Blake Snell, as well as the team’s well-documented financial and cultural woes, were obvious red flags coming into the 2024 season. Trading one of the best playoff players of the last five years in light of those budgetary concerns just felt like too great of a loss to overcome. In the heat of the moment, it looked like the Padres would lean toward conservative team-building in the immediate future.

It didn’t take long however to realize that this is AJ Preller we’re talking about: he will never sit on his hands. Somehow he was able to land strikeout master Dylan Cease and old-school contact maestro Luis Arraez by trading five prospects between both trades (which is incredible considering the amount of prospects he sent to Washington a few years ago).

The truck didn’t stop there though. Preller also quickly turned San Diego’s bullpen into the baseball equivalent of the X-Men by acquiring Tanner Scott (94th percentile in whiff rate and also never allows hard contact) and Jason Adam, two All-Star caliber players they can slot alongside Robert Suarez, a top five leader in saves this year and top seven leader among relievers in ERA. The fact that all three of them can function in the closer role offers some versatility in case one of them struggles in those last-inning scenarios.

San Diego may also be a tough out in the playoffs because they currently boast a league-leading lineup in batting average and a top-10 lineup in other salient offensive categories thanks to Manny Machado’s sold year, Arraez’s incredible contact ability, the surprise arrival of Jurickson Profar (fifth in on-base percentage for the year) and the recent torrid stretch from Xander Bogaerts (.429 average since the All-Star Break, which is third in the league in that span). The only real concern in the lineup is Fernando Tatis Jr. and his murky injury status. He’s been out since late June with a right femoral stress reaction. The last report said he’s still a couple of weeks away from a rehab assignment.

Still, the Cease and Soto trades have also garnered positive results. Following a shaky first couple of months, Cease looks back to his Cy Young caliber self from 2022 after pitching a recent no-hitter, and Michael King, who was one the premier pieces in the Soto trade, has had a really solid year as a starter (3.24 ERA) even though he’s reached the highest innings he’s ever pitched.

Between Preller’s eagerness and a balanced on-field performance this year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Padres make a surprise run in the postseason. And if they do, you’ll be sure they will be banging this: Padres Fans – “That’s What’s In” Phillies Rap (youtube.com), and this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MODHirs0dMM.

Boston Red Sox

Listen, I get it, this may come off as a biased pick since I’m a Sox fan, but look at the numbers! They’ve consistently been one of the best teams in baseball since the beginning of the summer and have already shown a penchant for beating good teams.

As of writing this, they currently sit a couple of games out of the Wild Card, and the team they trail-the Kansas City Royals- features a solid young core. But the Sox have that inexplicable energy; the kind that is simultaneously intangible and palpable, and it’s not just because they play in the most famous ballpark on the planet.

Although John Henry has maintained a frugal streak, even as tickets continue to be some of the most expensive in the league, there’s a hunger and a camaraderie to this team that I haven’t seen in about half a decade. You can see that brotherhood manifest in Manager Alex Cora’s cadence after a recent game: https://tinyurl.com/bdznm68c or the way they rally around breakout right fielder Wilyer Abreu after the unfortunate passing of his grandmother: https://tinyurl.com/ycynrfmd. There’s just an essence and a general aura to this team that goes beyond baseball.

Why is that the case? Well, part of it is Cora and superstar Rafael Devers’ leadership and part of it is probably the fact that a lot of these guys played together in Triple-A Worcester and developed bonds through that process.

Whatever the case may be, the vibes are immaculate.

The offense is absolutely cooking this year. Jarren Duran is an All-Star MVP and one of the most dangerous leadoff hitters in baseball, future gold glove winner Ceddanne Rafaela is in the rookie-of-the-year conversation, the aforementioned Abreu is having a glowing season as a replacement to Alex Verdugo (and is also a rookie-of-the-year candidate), Connor Wong is a top 10 hitting catcher based in average and OPS and Devers-aka Carita-is just mashing the ball in all directions no matter if it’s in the zone or not: RAFFY WENT OFF Rafael Devers showed out in win over Yankees | ESPN MLB (youtube.com).

As a team, the Sox are second in batting average this year, fourth in on-base percentage, eighth in wRC+ and first on OPS. You probably wish they’d cut their strikeout rate a little bit (fourth last in the league) but it’s incredible how they’re putting up these types of numbers without their other future star player, Triston Casas, for most of the year (though he’s on the verge of returning). When Casas does return, he’ll add some much-needed patience to an already scary lineup, which not only slugs and gets on base, but also steals like they’re the 2015 Royals thanks to Duran and David Hamilton’s impressive speed and aggressiveness on the base paths.

I suppose the one concern with this squad, like always over the past few years, is the pitching. After a top-five start to the year, the staff has seemingly plateaued since the All-Star break. Part of it is a weak bullpen, which has cost them some tough games over the past few weeks, but some of it also has to do with Brayan Bello’s underwhelming second full year (5.24 ERA) and the fact that Tanner Houck (a 2024 All-Star) and Kutter Crawford are feeling the fatigue from a long season. This doesn’t really come as surprise since Houck has reached his highest innings pitched in a season and Crawford is about too (they have a combined 7.97 ERA in the second half of the year so far).

Bello, however, has been playing well recently, and the Sox have reinforcements in the bullpen after a tough stretch. Chris Martin is already activated from an injury and the front office acquired Lucas Sims and Luis Garcia at the deadline to give them more options in late games. Hopefully, those moves help in the final couple months of the season.

Do I think that the Sox are a favorite to win it all? No, probably not. But do I think the vibes are great in Boston? Absolutely.

Sometimes in baseball, vibes are all you need to carry a team to the promised land.

The post These Two World Series Longshots Will Surprise You appeared first on Off The Bench.

Coming into the 2024 season, the 29-year-old Ohtani has a Rookie of the Year award, two Most Valuable Player awards*, and two Silver Slugger awards on his resume. He also has an MLB Player of the Year award, a home run title, three All-Star appearances, and has led the league in triples, OBP, SLG, OPS+ and intentional walks drawn. Given his accomplishments and abilities as a pitcher, many baseball fans consider him, not unreasonably, to be the best baseball player to ever step between the lines.

(*As his pitching career is on the side burner for now, we won’t make a big deal about his 4^th place finish in the 2022 Cy Young voting, or his career average of 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings – but we will mention only Aaron Judge breaking a 61-year-old home run record kept Ohtani from three straight AL MVP awards.)

As you likely remember, all the above, plus an unparalleled ability to generate revenue for his employers resulted in Ohtani earning a record contract. Shortly after that, his name was dragged into a potentially career ending scandal, which thankfully for all of us, didn’t result in anything tarnishing Showtime’s image in any way. Yet, it’s fair to say there was a little more than the usual amount of pressure on the player this spring.

Now almost one third of the way into the 2024 season – not a big sample size by baseball standards, but certainly not insignificant either – Shohei Ohtani has showed us something else:

We may not have seen his peak yet, which is absolutely terrifying to consider. He’s actually getting better.

As of Sunday morning, Ohtani had posted an OBP of .418 and a SLG of .661 leading to a wRC+ of 204 – the SLG and wRC+ lead all of baseball, the OBP is third highest. All three of those numbers exceed his 2023 totals of .412/.654 and 180 respectively, and those 2023 numbers were up from his 2022 numbers of .356/.519 and 142.

It’s not just the old school, results based OBP and SLG he’s consistently been improving in either. If you prefer advanced stats, his xwOBA has risen from .383 in 2022, to .427 in 2023 and currently sits at .486 in 2024. (As you would expect, his actual wOBA went up each season as well.) And even though his 2022 average exit velocity of 92.9 put him in the 97^th percentile that season, he’s been consistently improving at smashing baseballs too – his 2023 average EV of 94.4 topped his 2022 performance and he’s currently sitting on a 94.8 average EV in 2024.

In the chance you’re thinking that vaporizing baseballs – although important, isn’t everything – I have some news for you: He’s getting better at other, more subtle aspects of baseball as well.

Despite hitting the ball harder, he strikes out less often. His K% – stop me if you’ve heard this before – has improved for three straight seasons, going from 29.6% in 2022, to 24.2% in 2023 to 19.1% in 2024. As you would expect, he hasn’t spent three seasons trying to make contact for contact’s sake either has his barrel rate has risen from 16.8, to 19.6, to 22.2 over the past three seasons too.

Furthermore, even though he’s not currently pitching and is only a DH, he’s also become a better base stealer (because of course he has). In 2022, Ohtani stole 11 bases, followed that with 20 steals in 2023 and is on pace for 37 swipes in 2024.

Here’s the remarkable part: His success rate on stolen base attempts has improved along with the stolen base totals. He posted an unimpressive 55% success rate on steals in 2022, improved that to a solid 77% rate in 2023 and is currently, and rather casually, sitting on a 100% success rate this year, going 11 for 11 on steal attempts.

All the above has him on a pace for 10.1 bWAR – almost 50 percent more than the single season record by a DH, set by Edgar Martinez who posted a 7.0 bWAR season in 1995.

The fact that Ohtani is only 29 and has consistently and inexorably improved at virtually everything – when he was already in the GOAT conversation – is beyond adjectives. It certainly raises the distinct and absolutely remarkable possibility that we haven’t seen Ohtani’s peak yet.

I hope you’re not assuming that because this isn’t the steroid era anymore, that players peak in their late 20’s and it’s all downhill in their 30s. As a reminder, Willie Mays had his best offensive season at age 34. Ted Williams had arguably his best hitting season at age 38 and Henry Aaron had what was clearly his best season at age 37. Three players who are unquestionably in the top ten in any GOAT conversation and were all on inner circle Hall of Fame paths at Ohtani’s age, all improved as hitters in their 30s – it’s not unreasonable to think Ohtani will as well, particularly if he’s not playing the field.

I have no idea how high the peak of Mount Ohtani will eventually reach, and neither do you. I do know for certain that it is going to be a heck of a lot of fun to watch.

The post Shohei Ohtani: The Best is Yet to Come appeared first on Off The Bench.

Early in the book, we learn about Rose’s childhood growing up in Cincinnati with a father, Big Pete, who was an accomplished local athlete in baseball, basketball, football, and boxing. Big Pete was a looming presence in the life of the young Pete Rose, always pushing him to outwork everyone on the baseball diamond, and taking Little Pete to the racetrack on weekend afternoons. As it turned out, baseball and gambling would be the overriding passions of Pete Rose’s life, for better and for worse.

I was not yet born when Rose began his career, but I belong to one of multiple generations of baseball fans who grew up watching Pete Rose succeed on the field during his long career. He was a 17-time All-Star, the NL Rookie of the Year in 1963, the NL MVP in 1973, and World Series MVP in the 1975 Fall Classic. He got on base three times in the legendary Game 6, which is on the short list of the greatest World Series games in baseball history. 

Rose was a key cog in “The Big Red Machine” that won the World Series in 1975 and 1976. Two years later, the whole country followed his pursuit of Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak in 1978. Not long after, Cincinnati Fans were shocked when Rose left his hometown team to join the Philadelphia Phillies as a free agent in 1979, which was the year I fell in love with baseball as an 8-year-old fan of the “We R Fam-A-Lee” Pittsburgh Pirates. 

Rose, along with other baseball players in the 1970s and 1980s were bigger stars and much more famous to the general public than the baseball players of today. His teams played in six World Series from 1970 to 1983, at a time when half of the TV-watching households in the U.S. watched the World Series. By comparison, last year’s World Series between the Rangers and Diamondbacks had a 14 share, meaning just 14 percent of TV-watching households watched the five-game series. 

Showing himself to be a hustler on and off the field, Rose parlayed his baseball success and his frequent postseason performances into TV commercials for Swanson’s Hungry Man Dinners, Jockey brand underwear, Aqua Velva, Wheaties cereal, Kool-Aid, Grecian Formula hair coloring for men, Tegrin shampoo, Nestle Crunch chocolate bar, basically anything that would pay him to push their product. I remember them all. 

In the 1980s, he appeared on the The Baseball Bunch, hosted by longtime Reds teammate Johnny Bench, and a new generation of young baseball fans grew to love him. Many of us choked up on the bat like Rose and mimicked his crouch at the plate. I was the perfect age to enjoy The Baseball Bunch and I watched every episode. In his appearances, Rose was all about the fundamentals, like how to correctly field a throw at first base or round the base aggressively looking to take an extra base after a hit. When he talked about the fundamentals of baseball, he reminded me of my Little League coach. 

My generation of baseball fans watched the veteran Pete Rose play in the World Series with the Phillies in 1980 and again in 1983, before he transitioned into a player-manager with the Red in his final seasons as he relentlessly pursued Ty Cobb and that record-breaking 4,192 hit. 

All of this is chronicled in Charlie Hustle, but the book also details the specifics about what was happening in Pete Rose’s life behind the scenes. The 12-year-old me watching Rose on The Baseball Bunch didn’t know any of the sordid details of Rose’s life, like his infidelities as a married man, including a relationship with a teenage girl who was half his age, and his longtime associating with gamblers and drug dealers. As a kid, I just knew Pete Rose, the ballplayer, and loved everything about his game. 

The book took me on an emotional journey, from the highs of re-living the day Pete Rose broke Ty Cobb’s all-time hits record to the lows of Pete’s inability to save himself by refusing to be honest when faced with banishment from baseball after the 1989 Dowd Report came out. The majority of the book carries us to this defining moment in his life, when Pete Rose is confronted with the evidence against him, yet refuses to give in and admit that he bet on baseball. 

I was 18 years old when the Dowd Report came out. I didn’t want to believe it. I refused to believe it. I believed Pete Rose. Then he spent the next 15 years claiming he never bet on baseball until finally admitting he did and I felt like a fool. 

While reading Charlie Hustle, knowing Rose’s history now, I often found myself wondering who Pete Rose was deep down inside. What was he thinking as his gambling debts piled up, as his marriage crumbled, as he was sleeping with a girl half his age? All those years lying about betting on baseball; how did he live with that lie hanging over him? In the end, I think I was looking for a depth of character that just isn’t there. I get the feeling that Pete Rose doesn’t think beyond his next hustle, his next opportunity to make a buck or a bet. 

The book also touches on the post-MLB life of Rose as he travels from autograph show to autograph show, still the same Charlie Hustle working as hard as ever as he ages into his 80s. The recent proliferation of sports gambling, now embraced by MLB and the other major sports leagues after being legalized in many states across the country, has some longtime Pete Rose fans calling for his lifetime ban to be lifted and wanting him to finally get inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Others are adamantly opposed to both. Charlie Hustle presents the facts and lets the reader decide.

This book came out before the recent news that Ippei Mizuhara, the interpreter for the most famous baseball player on the planet today, Shohei Ohtani, allegedly stole $4.5 million from Ohtani to cover his gambling debts. There is an ongoing investigation and it’s the biggest gambling story in baseball since Pete Rose agreed to a lifetime ban 35 years ago. For baseball fans in general and particularly in light of the Shohei Ohtani investigation and the incessant promotion of gambling during baseball games these days, Charlie Hustle is a must read. 

The post Brrok Review – “Charlie Hustle: The Rise and Fall of Pete Rose, and the Last Glory Days of Baseball” appeared first on Off The Bench.

Game 5 of the 2023 World Series, Texas leads Arizona three games to one. Arizona is batting in the first inning with a runner on second base, no outs and Ketel Marte at the plate. Marte swings at a Nathan Eovaldi breaking ball just off the low and outside corner and pulls a soft grounder to the second baseman with a .110 expected batting average for an out, advancing the runner to third base.

In the broadcast booth, John Smoltz, showing more emotion than he typically does for walk off home runs, proclaimed, “Now THAT’S good hitting*.” For those of you who arrived late, Smoltz was referring to Marte’s ability to purposefully pull an outside pitch on the ground, which, run expectancy aside, allowed the runner on second base to advance to third base. (*We’ll come back to this in a minute…)

You may be wondering about the need to revisit this as we’re about seven months away from the next World Series. I’m arguing that as sure as I am never going to be an MLB player, I’m sure the question “Do you need good situational hitting to win in the postseason?” will come up again. Moreover, if you spend any time at all on baseball social media you know that question never goes away.

The nomenclature may vary – “contact”, “situational hitting”, “small ball”, etc. – but the point is always the same: In order to win the World Series, teams need to avoid striking out, and put the ball in play – even if it results in an out – to advance a runner and help (insert Bob Costas voice) “push across a run”. Fortunately for you, if you’re on the fence with this one, I looked at all 41 postseason games from 2023 and here’s what I found:

• Teams with the higher SLG won 87% of the time.
• Teams that out homered their opponent won 86% of the time.
• Teams with the higher OBP won 73% of the time.
• Teams with the higher number of productive outs* won 62% of the time.

(*Definitions may vary on what constitutes a “productive out”, but for today’s purposes I used any out that advanced a runner except for a fielding error or a grounded into double play, which is a more generous definition than most use.)

Pretty clearly, we see that making productive outs doesn’t correlate with winning as much as getting on base, extra base hits, or home runs. But when we dig deeper, it’s worse than that if you’re on a team “situational hitting wins in the postseason”.

For starters, there were 59 total productive outs in the 2023 postseason (1.4 per game) compared to 110 long balls (2.7 per game). Therefore, even if there was a positive impact from situational hitting – more on that in a minute – it didn’t impact the games very often. Which also puts a hole in the theory that power hitting comes and goes and can’t be relied upon as a consistent scoring method in the postseason – home runs not only the most impactful event, but they also occur more frequently than sacrifice flies, bunts, grounders to second, etc. combined. 

More importantly, unlike a home run or an extra base hit with runners on base, a productive out doesn’t necessarily lead to a run and therefore doesn’t impact the game outcome in your favor at all. Combine that with the fact that even when a runner does come around to score after a productive out, it’s only one run, as opposed to home runs and extra base hits with runners on base which always and often respectively, lead to multiple runs. 

Let’s take a closer look:

Since productive outs only lead to one run, I believe we can agree that they only impact the outcome of close games – I don’t’ think anyone will argue that a sacrifice fly was a needle-mover on the outcome of an 11-2 game in which the winning team out homered, out slugged, and out OBP’d their opponent.

As mentioned above, the teams who had more productive outs than their opponent won 62% of the time – technically, it was 13 wins against eight losses. Of those 13 wins, only six of them were decided by less than three runs, so we can say situational hitting didn’t impact the other seven wins.

In three of those six “close” wins, the runner who advanced on a productive out never came around to score, so there was no positive impact at all for the batting team. In another of those wins, the runner who advanced on a productive out came around to score – on a home run, so it sure wasn’t small ball that changed the scoreboard. In another (NLDS Game 2 between Arizona and Los Angeles), Arizona made three productive outs, but only one came around to score in a 4-2 win. However, the Dodgers grounded into two rally-killing double plays in the game, so the “put it in play and move the runners” mindset actually hurt the Dodgers more than it helped the Diamondbacks. That leaves us with NLCS Game 7, in which the Phillies had a higher OBP, SLG, and HR total than the Diamondbacks and lost. The D’Backs made three productive outs, all of which eventually led to a run, in a 4-2 win.

Bottom line? Out of 41 postseason games, one could argue that situational hitting which might lead to moving runners along and “pushing across a run” here and there had a positive impact on a grand total of one game, or .02 percent of the time. There is only one rational conclusion: Claiming that you need good situational hitting to win in the postseason is akin to stepping on a $100 bill to pick up two single dollars. 

The 2023 postseason showed us that getting runners on base (OBP) and advancing those runners multiple bases at a time (SLG) without giving up outs to do so, will determine the outcome of a postseason game close to 50 times more often than situational hitting will. Just something to consider the next time this topic comes up, as it assuredly will.

(*In case you were curious, Smoltz’s definition of “good hitting” led to zero runs. In fact, Arizona had a productive out in each of the first three innings of 2023’s final game, and scored zero runs from any of them, in an eventual season ending 5-0 loss.)

The post How Important Are “Productive Outs”, Really? appeared first on Off The Bench.

Since that weekend, the walls have been closing in on management. It’s not just the fans complaining anymore. Red Sox royalty from past and present have made it clear that what’s going on (or, perhaps, not going on) is wholly unacceptable in a ballpark where everything in its confines, from the players, franks and architecture, is as immortalized as baseball itself.

The SparkNotes version of the 2023-24 offseason is as follows: Boston replaces Chaim Bloom with Craig Breslow, Red Sox Chairman Tom Werner said the team would go “full throttle” to build a contender, and then…they didn’t. The rest of the American League East, except the build-from-within Tampa Bay Rays, ostensibly has.

That said, it wasn’t that terrible of an offseason when evaluating it in retrospect. Let’s look at the notable moves they did (and didn’t) make during the winter months and how those moves may affect this season and beyond. I didn’t want to grade every signing, trade, and release they executed; only the most profound ones.

Signing Lucas Giolito

An already tumultuous offseason turned pretty grim when Boston’s marquee starting pitching signing went down for the year, and possibly part of 2025, with a torn ulnar collateral ligament. The Jeff Passan tweet signaling Giolito’s catastrophic injury was so jarring it had me convinced that the Mookie Betts curse exists, which means we will not see another Red Sox title before the apocalypse.

Dramatics aside, I was initially skeptical of the Red Sox signing Giolito to a two-year $38,5 million contract with a player option in 2025. I understood the team’s logic: Giolito has had a career full of ups and downs, and at times, he has illustrated ace potential (his Baseball Savant profile shows a pretty good 2022). He’s also still young (28), so a short-term deal to prove himself and maybe take some weight off of Brayan Bello’s shoulders is a cogent theory.

The problem to me, however, is some of Giloito’s career valleys have been much more glaring than his peaks as a pitcher. There’s always been some potential for success. Still, his recent tendency to give up the long ball (he gave up the second-most homers among qualified starters in 2023) and his putrid performance in the second half of last year with the Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Guardians (combined 6.95 ERA) meant that a pairing with the smallest ballpark in baseball in one of MLB’s toughest divisions would probably be a recipe for disaster.

What confounds me is the Red Sox’s inability to take advantage of a robust trade market. Top pitchers like Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes, both of whom are around the same age as Giolito, went for reasonable prices on the trade market relative to their talents, and both have so far proved that they are Cy Young-level flamethrowers.

Now, I know what the rebuttal is. Why would a John Henry-run team trade for someone they probably wouldn’t eventually sign long-term? It’s true; current ownership will not change their frugal ways, but I’d argue that trading for a young, strikeout-heavy pitcher can simultaneously appease the fanbase and maintain the thrifty image Henry wants to maintain.

Cease, who was linked to Boston in the past, would have been the perfect option. He is under team control through 2025 due to arbitration rules, which means the Sox would not have had to worry about paying him right away. The move would’ve kept Henry’s checkbook at bay while showing fans and players a commitment to winning.

With the glut of prospects and a crowded outfield, Boston could have formulated a nice package for Chicago’s former ace. Any number of their young hitters could’ve benefitted the White Sox; a bottom-tier offense in batting average and on-base percentage.

Instead, the Sox went the more conservative route, and ironically, they’re wasting more money by taking that path.

It was an okay move, and I can’t blame them for an injury they couldn’t have foreseen, but considering what was available, the Sox missed out on more established talent.

Grade: C

Trading for Isaiah Campbell

The first move Breslow made in his new role was arguably one of his best. Trading Luis Urias for Isaiah Campbell back in November, a move that largely fell under the radar this offseason, illustrated a commitment to improving a bullpen for those middle innings.

Boston posted a formidable 3.67 ERA during innings 7 through 9 in 2023 thanks to the lights-out pitching from Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen, but the middle innings were far from impressive. Their cumulative 5.37 ERA during innings 4 through 6 and 6.28 ERA in inning 6 indicates that their starters either fizzled as the game went on or their middle relievers couldn’t capitalize in their fleeting time on the field.

Campbell’s meager 28 innings of MLB experience indicates that he probably won’t turn into 2022 Edwin Diaz in the immediate future, but his 2.83 ERA and 33 strikeouts in those minimal chances yield some optimism for the 25-year-old’s long-term prospects. Out of his 27 appearances, 15 of them were spent in the fifth, sixth and seventh innings, meaning he has some experience during Boston’s most volatile innings and can help when needed in those scenarios.

Additionally, moving off of Urias was a smart move for Boston because the utility player’s skill set and positional flexibility are not necessary anymore now that the Sox have Trevor Story’s stellar defense back full-time at shortstop, Rafael Devers at third and recently-acquired second baseman Vaughn Grissom (hopefully after a short IL stint) at second. Urias’s paltry three homers in 52 games to go along with a .194 average with the Milwaukee Brewers and the Sox last year meant that it made little sense to keep him long-term.

Grade: B+

Chris Sale for Vaughn Grissom

Ask any Red Sox fan: this trade had to happen. Immediately after signing a five-year, $145 million deal, the lanky lefty turned into a real-life Operation board character as he pitched only 31 times from 2020-2023.

That said, most of the frustration aimed at Sale because of his lengthy injury history is a bit overblown. Even if the contract appeared to be an overpay, there was no indication in prior seasons that he would face protracted absences. He was one of the most durable pitchers in baseball between 2012 and 2018, averaging 198 innings pitched per season during that stretch. He was also a key component in the 2018 World Series run, so I think his value was earned.

Nonetheless, it wasn’t working in Boston as of late, so a move was imminent.

Miraculously, the Sox killed two birds with one stone here. Not only did they move on from Sale, but they got someone back who just turned 23, and if healthy, could be the first stable second baseman the Sox have had since Dustin Pedroia.

The sample size is limited, but Grissom showed some moxie in the short amount of time he’s been in the big leagues. His .353 on-base percentage in 2022 ranked 48th among 417 guys who accrued at least 150 plate appearances that year and his .291 batting average ranked 35th. That’s a welcome sign for a team whose second basemen combined for a middling .314 on-base percentage in 2023.

The one lingering question with Grissom has always been his defense, but that discourse mostly occurred when the Braves were trying to utilize him as a shortstop. With Story glued there in Boston, Grissom can focus on a much easier place in the infield and learn from Story, who’s one of the best fielders in the game.

Grade: B+

Trading Alex Verdugo

This might be the most disappointing trade of the off-season for two reasons: one, the Sox traded him to the Yankees; and two, the trade meant Connor Wong is the only player left from the infamous Mookie Betts deal.

I’m no salary expert, but Wong for Mookie sounds like a fantasy baseball trade you’d propose to your clueless friend who’s just in the league because the commissioner needed a slot filled.

Verdugo’s had a fine career, but he always showed a tendency to fade as the year went on and he and Alex Cora never got along. He batted .225 during the second half of 2023 after hitting .290 in the first half.

The only good news to come out of this is there is no doubt Verdugo will clash with the petulant Aaron Boone.

Grade: C-

Trading for Tyler O’Neill

My gut reaction to this was, “Why are we trading for ANOTHER outfielder when we could use pitching reinforcements?”

Honestly though, after catching a strong case of recency bias and looking more into his career. I’m in on another body helming the outfield. Esoteric records aside, if O’Neill can return to his 2021 output with the Cardinals when he finished eighth in MVP voting as a Gold Glover and 30-plus home run hitter, then the Sox got him for a steal.

This could easily be one of those under-the-radar moves.

Grade: B

No Jordan Montgomery

Going, going, going….GONE!! No, I’m not talking about a home run ball leaving the yard; I’m talking about Montgomery leaving the Red Sox grasp.

It’s definitely disappointing to not land him after all the swirling rumors, but I will say; I’m kind of glad the Sox decided to forego the Scott Boras drama. A one-year deal for $25 million isn’t that enticing for a team that is embracing the youth movement at the moment. Montgomery’s decision to join Arizona makes total sense for both sides since they just made the World Series.

I just feel bad for Jordan because this felt like the one time he could land a big deal and it didn’t happen. Now, he has to prove himself again.

Extending Brayan Bello but not Triston Casas

I love how much the Sox believe in Bello, as evidenced by his four-year extension. I just hope they can reach a long-term deal with Casas because he is just as important for Boston’s future. He’s a likable media darling who mashes homers and recently finished top three in the Rookie of the Year race. There’s no reason the organization shouldn’t extend him.

Truth be told, if the Sox aren’t going to spend outside the confines of Fenway, at least pay your homegrown talent. They should’ve learned their lesson after the Mookie ordeal.

Hiring Andrew Bailey

I might be cheating by giving this one an “A” since I wrote this section five games into the 2024 season and immediately after another phenomenal performance from a Red Sox starter. Truth be told, I totally forgot to add this signing in this article before the season started.

But, it’s hard to ignore what has transpired over the first weekend of the 2024 season. The Red Sox pitching staff looks much livelier than last year, and that’s mainly because of their new pitching coach.

Bailey’s contributions with the San Francisco Giants, where he helmed a staff that tallied the sixth-best ERA in baseball between 2020-2023, were not a fluke.

Although it’s only been five measly games in the 2024 season, the Sox have the second-best ERA and the second-best K-rate in baseball.

Granted, this success came against two teams (Seattle and Oakland) that struck out the second and fourth-most in 2023, so we’ll quickly see soon enough whether this is a fluke or not.

Regardless, the man who helped turn guys like Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon into Cy Young candidates is now injecting hope into a previously flawed rotation.

Grade: A

The post Boston Red Sox Offseason Grade appeared first on Off The Bench.

And yet, they have Mike Trout, the 2012 AL Rookie of the Year, 3-time AL MVP, and 11-time All-Star, who is just now entering his age-32 season. I wrote about Trout’s legacy at OTBB just recently.

We all know Trout has struggled to stay on the field the last three seasons. He’s played in just 237 of the Angels’ last 486 games since the start of the 2021 season, which is a little less than half. But he’s still been good when he’s been on the field. Even last year, the worst offensive season he had since his 40-game sample as a rookie, Trout had a 134 wRC+, meaning he was still 34 percent better than league average on offense. He was a 3-WAR player in 82 games, which suggests he would be nearly a 6-WAR player over a full season. That’s still elite. At Baseball-Reference, there were nine hitters and two pitchers who reached that mark last season.

What can we expect going forward? FanGraphs has a number of projection sources for MLB players. One of those, ATC Projections, takes a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by aggregating other projections into one composite projection. ATC projects Trout to play 125 games, get 540 plate appearances and be worth 4.2 WAR.

If Trout lives up to that projection, he’ll pass five Hall of Fame players on the Baseball-Reference WAR leaderboard. If he has a 5-WAR season, he’ll pass seven Hall of Fame players. Let’s take a look at the players Trout is chasing.

52. Mike Trout

85.2 WAR (Baseball-Reference)

6521 Plate Appearances

10.1 WAR in his best season (2013)

51. Chipper Jones

85.3 WAR (+0.1 over Trout)

10614 Plate Appearances

8.0 WAR in his best season (1999)

Despite having 4,000 fewer plate appearances, Trout should pass Jones early in the season. Jones was a first-ballot Hall of Famer (97.2%), 8-time All-Star, and winner of the 1999 NL MVP Award. He’s one of 18 players with 6000 or more plate appearances and a batting average above .300, on-base percentage above .400, and slugging percentage above .500 (.300/.400/.500 Club). (Hat tip, Stathead by Baseball-Reference)

Trout is also in the .300/.400/.500 Club, but his career batting average is .301 and he’s hit just .283 over the last four years, including .263 last year. He’s much more likely to drop below .300 than to maintain that average over the last half of his career.

Of course, the biggest difference between Chipper Jones and Mike Trout is that Jones made the playoffs with Atlanta 12 times, including 11 years in a row from 1995 to 2005. Trout has one playoff appearance in his career.

50. Robin Roberts

86.2 WAR (+1.0 over Trout)

4688.7 Innings Pitched

9.8 WAR in his best season (1953)

Robin Roberts was a workhorse pitcher for 19 big league seasons, with the best of those being with the Philadelphia Phillies in the 1950s. The sheer volume of innings he put up show how much baseball has changed in the last 70 years:

1950—20 W, 39 GS, 21 CG, 304.3 IP

1951—21 W, 39 GS, 22 CG, 315.0 IP

1952—28 W, 37 GS, 30 CG, 330.0 IP

1953—23 W, 41 GS, 33 CG, 346.7 IP

1954—23 W, 38 GS, 29 CG, 336.7 IP

1955—23 W, 38 GS, 26 CG, 305.0 IP

1956—19 W, 37 GS, 22 CG, 297.3 IP

Last season, all MLB pitchers combined had 35 complete games. Roberts had 33 complete games by himself in 1953.

49. Tim Keefe

86.9 WAR (+1.7 over Trout)

5049.7 Innings Pitched

19.9 WAR in his best season (1883)

Remember all those innings pitched by Robin Roberts? Tim Keefe says, “Hold my beer.”

1881—18 W, 45 GS, 45 CG, 403.0 IP

1882—17 W, 42 GS, 41 CG, 376.0 IP

1883—41 W, 68 GS, 68 CG, 619.0 IP

1884—37 W, 58 GS, 56 CG, 483.0 IP

1885—32 W, 46 GS, 45 CG, 400.0 IP

1886—42 W, 64 GS, G2 CG, 535.0 IP

1887—35 W, 56 GS, 54 CG, 476.7 IP

1888—35 W, 51 GS, 48 CG, 434.3 IP

1889—28 W, 45 GS, 39 CG, 364.0 IP

48. George Brett

88.6 WAR (+3.4 over Trout)

11625 Plate Appearances

8.5 WAR in his best season (1980)

“Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It’s 25 hits. Twenty-five hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay? There’s six months in a season, that’s about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week – just one – a gorp… you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes… you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week… and you’re in Yankee Stadium.

“Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It’s 25 hits. Twenty-five hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay? There’s six months in a season, that’s about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week – just one – a gorp… you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes… you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week… and you’re in Yankee Stadium.“

— Crash Davis (Bull Durham)

Another first-ballot Hall of Famer (98.2%), Brett was a 13-time All-Star who famously hit .390 in 1980 on his way to the AL MVP Award. He was eight hits short of a .400 season. That’s about one extra flair, gorp, ground ball with eyes, or dying quail every three weeks.

47. Bob Gibson

89.1 WAR (+3.9 over Trout)

3884.3 Innings Pitched

11.2 WAR in his best season (1968)

Bob Gibson had 13 shutouts during his incredible 1968 season (1.12 ERA in 304.7 IP). No pitcher has topped him since. The last time a pitcher had even five shutouts in a season was in 2012, when Justin Verlander accomplished it. The MLB leader(s) in shutouts over the last 10 seasons (minus 2020):

2023—2 shutouts: Gerrit Cole, Framber Valdez

2022—1 shutout: 16 pitchers

2021—2 shutouts: Zack Wheeler, Joe Musgrove, Anthony DeSclafani, Max Fried, Sean Manaea

2019—3 shutouts: Lucas Giolito, Sandy Alcantara, Shane Bieber

2018—1 shutout: 19 pitchers

2017—3 shutouts: Corey Kluber, Ervin Santana

2016—3 shutouts: Clayton Kershaw

2015—3 shutouts: Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Jake Arrieta

2014—3 shutouts: Adam Wainwright, Rick Porcello, Henderson Alvarez

2013—2 shutouts: Bartolo Colon, Justin Masterson

46. Gaylord Perry

90.0 WAR (+4.8 over Trout)

5350.0 Innings Pitched

10.8 WAR in his best season (1972)

If Mike Trout can land in between his 2022 season total of 6.3 WAR and his projection of 4.2 WAR, he would catch Gaylord Perry and Steve Carlton on the all-time leaderboard. He would likely have around 7100 plate appearances, which is about a third of the numbers of batters faced by Gaylord Perry in his career (21953). Perry was part of a group of pitchers in the 1960s and 1970s who regularly pitched 300 innings and faced more than 1100 batters in a season. In contrast, the 2023 leader in batters faced was Miles Mikolas, with 860. Perry led the league with 1345 batters faced in 1969.

45. Steve Carlton

90.2 WAR (+5.0 over Trout)

5217.7 IP

12.1 WAR in his best season (1972)

A 5.1-WAR season by Mike Trout would move him past Steve Carlton to 45^th on the all-time list after 14 seasons. Carlton pitched for 24 seasons. He was a 10-time All-Star and won 4 Cy Young Awards. His signature season was in 1972, when he was 27-10 with a 1.97 ERA and 310 strikeouts in 346.3 innings. The Phillies won 59 games in 1972. Last year’s Kansas City Royals won 56 games. Imagine if they had a pitcher win 25 of them. Social media would implode.

Baseball is better when Mike Trout is healthy and hitting bombs. He may not single-handedly drag the Angels to the playoffs this season, but if he can stay healthy and continue to be the player he’s been, he’ll zoom right past a handful of Hall of Fame players on the all-time WAR leaderboard.

The post The Mike Trout WAR Watch appeared first on Off The Bench.

Sean  6:39 PM – It’s a great time of year! There’s 8 inches of snow on the ground in Tennessee and the fireplace is roaring, but we get to think about baseball. Soon, we’ll be basking in the glory of Arizona sunshine.

Max  6:39 PM – Can’t. Wait.

6:40 Until then, though. We owe the baseball world our infallible, never wrong, oft-followed determination of who should and should not be admitted into Cooperstown. We do it every year.

6:40 This time, no Barry Bonds discussion needed

Sean  6:41 PM – Hip hip hooray! Never fear, there’s still some steroid conversation on this ballot.

6:42 Luckily, not really with our first candidate: Bobby Abreu, who is in his 5th year on the ballot

Max  6:43 PM – I’m a big Bobby Abreu fan. He’s a reliably low percentage on Immaculate Grid, which is outrageous because he was great. But I continue to not think he’s a HOFer. Want to guess how many career steals Bobby Abreu had?

Sean  6:46 PM – 356 steals. We’re in an era where we’re trying to value the whole player and Abreu is a prime example of a guy who doesn’t have a single carrying skill. So Abreu’s case is tied to being a complete player. I’m all in on the complete player discussion obviously, but he just doesn’t do it for me. Not a single top 10 finish in MVP voting. Weird that he’s on his 5th year on the ballot.

400! He had exactly 400 steals

Max  6:46 PM – 400 steals! That’s a lot

Sean  6:47 PM – It’s not HoF worthy.

Max  6:47 PM – I think if he hit for more power, people would be higher on him. If he was like 350 homers/ 400 steals instead of 288 homers, there’s be a stronger case. As it is… NEXT!

Sean  6:48 PM – Jose Bautista hit more homers!

6:49 He had a 6 year stretch where he absolutely was HoF worthy – from 2010 to 2015, Bautista averaged 38 homers per year, was an All Star every year, and finished in the top 5 in the MVP twice and top 10 two more times

6:50 The problem, of course, is that he hit .143 with the Braves

Max  6:50 PM – I texted you this fantastic article on Jose Bautista by Jay Jaffe and even though you never responded to the text, it remains fantastic. What an odd, interesting career- Bautista went from a skinny, small guy who sucked at third to the best power hitter in baseball for an ALCS team

 6 straight All Star games in those 6 years you mentioned. When he was great, he was great. But his productivity fell off a cliff and it took a while to get going, too. I don’t think he was even a replacement level player in those years outside his Big 6Sean  6:54 PM – so he’s a no. Are you going to talk me into Carlos Beltran?

Max  6:54 PM – I think he’s a little short, but you can make a compelling case.

6:56 He was probably the best player in baseball in 2004, all things considered. And then followed that up with 4 All Star games in 5 years with the Mets, and he happened to have a 7.0 bWAR in that only non- All Star season

6:57 He also never really got bad? He wasn’t great his final season, sure, but he was an All Star at age 396:58You know what? I kinda think he might be a Hall of Famer?

Sean  6:58 PM – yeah – he had a really nice career and should be honored for it. I’m not sure he belongs in the same hallway as Babe Ruth though.

7:00 He feels like a classic big/small hall guy. Like you can tell the story of baseball without him, but he wouldn’t be out of place in the hallway.

Max  7:00 PM – I think that’s right. He strikes me as a guy that should get a hair of 75% on his like 8th year on the ballot

7:00 I say we put him on ours though

Sean  7:01 PM – Tentatively in. I think I’d have him off of my personal ballot.

Max  7:01 PM – Who’s next?

Sean  7:01 PM – Adrian Beltre

7:01 IN on Beltre

Max  7:01 PM – Just for fun, make the case

Sean  7:08 PM – He had 3000 hits as a multiple Platinum Glove award winner. Nearly 500 homers. He got there in a weird way – he put up 52 bWAR after he turned 30. But we can make the case pretty clearly just using the hits/homers/defense argument: Mays, Ripken, and Rodriguez are the only ones besides Beltré who reached 3000 hits/400 homers while playing key defensive positions, and as the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant pointed out at the time he retired, Beltré’s one of four with the milestones and at least five Gold Gloves, along with Mays, Winfield, and Yastrzemski — pretty decent company on both fronts. His hit total ranks 18th all-time, and first among third basemen.

Max  7:09 PM – Yeah, good job. He’s in. It took me a while to come around because I kept thinking about Mariners Beltre, who was definitely not a HOFer, but they rest of the career definitely gets him there.

7:09 Moving on, who we got?

Sean  7:10 PM – yeah – he had two careers. One where he was a sleeper good player with the Dodgers/Mariners and then one where he was a known good player with the Red Sox / Rangers.

7:11 Mark Buehrle. My brain will forever remember how to spell it

Max  7:11 PM – That’s better than I can do!

7:12 I don’t think Mark B. is in though. Kinda surprised he’s still on the ballot, honestly.

Sean  7:19 PM – he had 59 WAR, which is alot, but it feels like we’re giving him more of a participation trophy than an excellence trophy. I’m wrong for that though because he had at least 3.8 WAR in 10 seasons.

Max  7:21 PM – He was a great pitcher, for sure. But I think a long way from getting 75% of voters to vote for him. He’s more of a 25% guy

Sean  7:21 PM – For some context, that puts him just outside the Top 10 usually.

7:21 Gary Sheffield got some crap for calling Mike Mussina a #3 pitcher recently. I think Buerhle was a true #3 though.

7:22 Onward to Bartolo Colon!

Max  7:23 PM – You could tell the story of baseball without Bartolo Colon… but would you want to?

Sean  7:26 PM – If the aliens came to earth and wanted me to explain why I love baseball to them, Bartolo would be on the team that I picked.

Max  7:26 PM – Does that get him our vote?

Sean  7:26 PM – yes

Max  7:27 PM – Ha. Ok. That’s 3ish. Who’s next?

Sean  7:27 PM – Adrian Gonzalez

7:28 Gonzalez made $190M in his career. That feels like enough honor

Max  7:28 PM – He was really good! But he kind of peaked on the Padres and was just ‘very good’ on the Red Sox an Dodgers. 4 All Star games in a row, and then only 1 more after he left SD (edited)

7:28 Agreed.

Sean  7:30 PM – Todd Helton!

Max  7:30 PM – You’ve advocated for him every year, I think.

7:30 Lay it on me

Sean  7:32 PM – .300/.400/.500 club with over 2,500 hits and 3,900 times on base. Only 11 players in history have done that, and 10 of those 11 are in the Hall of Fame.

Only 21 players have managed to hit .320 with 30 homers and 100/100 RBI/Runs as many as three times ever in their careers. 15 of the 21 are in the Hall. The 5 who aren’t are Helton, Pujols, Cabrera, Bonds, and Ramirez. Helton did it in 5 straight seasons from 98-03

Max  7:33 PM – I’m convinced. Or at least I understand the futility of arguing against you (plus, I want to do that more forcefully later) .

7:33 That brings us to 4ish

Sean  7:34 PM – I’ll grab some tea so that my voice is ready to start yelling.

Matt Holiday is next. Is Matt Holliday better or worse than you think he is?

Max  7:34 PM – Is ‘his kid is better than him’ a good reason to keep someone out of the Hall?

Sean  7:35 PM – his kids**

Max  7:35 PM – I think maybe better? He got a lot of MVP votes along the way

7:35 Feels kind of Rolen-y to me

7:36 but I voted against adding Rolen to our ballot in the past

Sean  7:36 PM – Today’s his birthday

Max  7:37 PM – Well shit

Sean  7:37 PM – His nickname is Big Daddy

7:37 Yeah – I agree that he was better than I thought. Not quite HoF-better.

Max  7:37 PM – One dimensional player- no speed, hit for power and some average. No defense. A player you’d definitely want on your team but not a Hall guy. I get any of that wrong?

Sean  7:38 PM – Sounds right to me.

7:38 Torii Hunter is on his 4th ballot

Max  7:39 PM – We’ve been down this road, at length, before

Sean  7:39 PM – yeah? What’d we decide?

Max  7:40 PM – We had him as a close but out guy in 20227:40Nothing’s really changed

Sean  7:41 PM – That feels right. I remain shocked by his 2400+ hits. and 9 GG. If Abreu needed more homers, I think Hunter needed more steals

7:41 Andruw Jones is next

7:42 I shout about him. But you go first

Max  7:42 PM – His BRef page remains surprisingly great. He was well regarded and better than you thought he was. But Hunter was maybe slightly worse than Jones and Jones is very much a bubble guy

7:42 Great peak but it was short. Long, baaadddd tail makes him harder to argue for

7:43 That said, we’ve included him before

Sean  7:47 PM – Was it that short though? I lauded Buerhle for 10 seasons of at least 3.8 WAR. A Jones had 11 of at least 3 WAR

7:47 It’s just that they all happened in Atlanta

Max  7:47 PM – and 5 pretty rough seasons before he was out of the sport entirely.

7:48 Beltran remained the same kind of player as his knees went to shit. Jones… didn’t

Sean  7:49 PM – yeah – this almost feels like a Joe Mauer fight too

7:49 where you at on Mauer?

Max  7:49 PM – MVP, catcher, face of a franchise, Hall guy to me

Sean  7:50 PM – (Victor Martinez was technically next, but he has 13 fewer WAR than Omar Vizquel, who is also on the ballot and isn’t going to make it in)

7:50 So you’re in on Mauer and Jones?

Max  7:51 PM – Yep. Gets us to 6 already

Sean  7:52 PM – I’m very mid on Mauer. He started more games at 1B/DH than at Catcher

Max  7:53 PM – Yeah but he was really good at both. .306 career hitter. .827 OPS

Sean  7:55 PM – 143 career homers, which is the same amount that George Springer has had since 2018.

7:56He gets in just because he was a hometown kid? psh

Max  7:56 PM – Maybe Spring is a Hall of Famer too. We’ll get to that in 20327:57Should we revisit Helton? Or Jones?

Sean  7:57 PM – We should probably revisit Bartolo. I didn’t realize we’d still have such a crunch

7:58 Do you make us vote for Andy Pettitte?

Max  7:58 PM – I do not.

7:58 But I make us take a second to appreciate him and his stellar playoff performances and his key role on the Greatest Dynasty Ever

Sean  8:01 PM – unsubscribe. What do we think Brandon Phillips is doing these days?

Max  8:03 PM – I feel like he owns a fishing boat. I have no basis for this

Sean  8:03 PM – He’s got a really nice trophy room. That’s my theory.

Max  8:05 PM – He’s probably not making plans to head to Cooperstown in July though

(I think it’s July. Or August?)

Sean  8:05 PM – I like the fishing boat theory. He’d have a great name for it. Double play reel

Max  8:05 PM – That is great

Sean  8:05 PM – Manny Ramirez is next. Manny’s tough because he failed those drug tests. Like when you’re actually caught cheating, it’s different.

But I’m not here to shout about steroids. I’m here to celebrate baseball and that dude was so fun and great. He’s in

Max  8:14 PM – We’re going to have to boot Bartolo. Any maybe someone else at this rate

But I agree on Manny. He should be in. And so should Bonds, Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, and Sammy Sosa

Sean  8:17 PM – bye bye Bartolo.

Max  8:18 PM – Who’s next?

Sean  8:18 PM – Jose Reyes is next. 517 steals, above average offense, and played shortstop. Classic Met

Max  8:19 PM – Kind of feels Jones like- he fell off a cliff and the tail was long and bad. Except Reyes’ was longer and bad-er. Really only 11 not terrible seasons

Sean  8:21 PM – he’s like the poster child for non-sustainable / poorly ageing skills (speed and contact oriented approach). Teams have gotten smarter about that

Max  8:21 PM – He was great for a while though! I hope teams don’t move too far away from players like Reyes, because when it’s good, it’s really good

Sean  8:22 PM – It’s also the most fun brand of baseball! Walks suck.

Anyway – Alex Rodriguez only got 37.5% of the vote last year. Manny got 33.2%. Voters seem to be steadfast against the steroids

Max  8:22 PM – The voters are old and wrong. Barry Bonds never getting voted in was a travesty, as well ARod not making it. ARod was a weirdo and a shit head, but he’s also the best infielder we’ve ever seen and had one of the most prolific careers ever

Sean  8:25 PM – well said. we go from A-Rod to K-Rod

Max  8:26 PM – Ok. What’s your guy on Fransisco Rodriguez?

Sean  8:26 PM – my guy?

Max  8:26 PM – Sorry, gut

Sean  8:28 PM – my gut is “no” but it feels unfair. He’s right there with Mauer for me in terms of noteworthy but not salivatory career

Max  8:30 PM – I agree that he seems like a no. He had some great seasons in terms of save numbers, but even in those, he wasn’t dominant. And there’s precedent that in order to make the Hall of Fame as a reliever, you need to be truly Top Tier- guys like Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman etc.

The next tier down guys like Bruce Sutter and Lee Smith took a long time to get in and were semi controversial

K-Rod is clearly not on a Hoffman-type level. Really good pitcher, but seems like a clear no

(Hold this thought for later)

Sean  8:33 PM – I’ll hold all the thoughts. Jimmy Rollins is next. MVP award, premium position, more than 143 homers

Max  8:33 PM – Who would you have rather had at their respective peaks- Rollins or Reyes?

Sean  8:34 PM – Probably Reyes

Max  8:34 PM – Yeah. Moving on

Sean  8:35 PM – If our threshold for Mauer is MVP…

8:35 anyway – it’s Sheffield’s last year on the ballot!

Max  8:36 PM – Mauer was the best offensive catcher in baseball the whole time he was a catcher. He was a unique offensive weapon at the hardest position and when he had to move to first, he maintained his offense

8:36 Sheff always gets our vote, I think

Sean  8:37 PM – I’m in on Shef.

Max  8:37 PM – We may have a ballot crunch here at the end. Guess we’ll find out soon

Sean  8:38 PM – The story of baseball told through the James Shields trade trees is a fun one.

Max  8:39 PM – It’s a special thing to be on the other side of so many important trades

8:39 Got a link for our readers?

Sean  8:40 PM – https://www.reddit.com/r/tampabayrays/comments/13l5t9a/the_james_shields_trade_tree_is_kind_of_insane/

Max  8:40 PM – Perfect! Who’s next?

Sean  8:42 PM – Chase Utley!

Max  8:43 PM – So I’m super torn on Utley. He doesn’t strike me as a Hall of Famer, but his stats are very good, and a heck of a lot better than other second basemen, and I’m willing to be convinced

Sean  8:48 PM – I think I’m in on him. His peak was pretty insane. 5 straight seasons with a WAR over 7. then the next season was at 5.8. Mookie Betts has 4 total seasons with a WAR over 7.

Only 1800ish hits and the voters in 2006-2009 kinda screwed him. He finished with 9 WAR in 2008 and somehow finished 14th in MVP voting (that was also the year when Chipper hit .364 and finished 12th in the voting)

Max  8:52 PM – Yeah, it’s the 1800 hits and only 1 all star game in the last 7 years of his 16 year career (which really didn’t even get started until year 3) that are the kocks against

Sean  8:53 PM – We’ve got a spot on the ballot and Vizquel/Wagner/Wright left

Max  8:54 PM – Well Wagner will be the controversial one

8:54

Let’s toss Utley on the maybe pile

Sean  8:54 PM – I’m out on Vizquel and don’t really want to discuss hiM – 8:55I’d like a moment of silence for David Wright

*crickets*

Ok – Why is Billy Wagner controversial?

Max  8:57 PM –

Player A

• 976 innings
• 437 saves
• 2.86 ERA
• 1142 ks
• 1.155 whip
• 3 top 5 Cy young Finishes
• 1 top 10 MVP finish
• 6 All Star games
• 16 seasons

Player B

1. 903 innings
2. 422 saves
   1. ERA
3. 1196 Ks
4. .998 WHIP
5. 2 top 10 Cy Finishes
6. 2 seasons with MVP votes
7. 7 All Star games
8. 16 seasons

Who’s better? and by how much

Sean  9:02 PM – Give me Player B by about 4%. Love the whip and K/9Max  9:03 PM – Player B is Wagner. Player A is K-Rod, who we’ve already established is not a Hall of Famer. I don’t think K-Rod misses by only 4% either (edited)

Sean  9:04 PM – I’m fine leaving them both off. Both are extremely good, but so niche

Max  9:05 PM – And not quite good enough to reach break through this very high bar. Is that everyone?

Sean  9:06 PM – That’s everyone!

Are we messing up by having Colon in there? I don’t want to rob anyone of HoF because of fun Bartolo

Max  9:07 PM – Well. Who’s 11th?

Sean  9:08 PM – Billy Wagner is at 79% of public ballots

Max  9:08 PM – We’ve already established that the voters are bad

Sean  9:09 PM – yeah – these idiots didn’t vote for Bonds. We can’t be groupthinking with them

Max  9:10 PM – The whole point of this is to tell them what they’re supposed to do!

and now we have

Listen up, you bad voters!

Sean  9:11 PM – Yup! We can do this better

We did do this better.

Time for another log on the fire….

Max  9:12 PM – Congratulations to the 10 newest Hall of Famers! You’re welcome.

1. Beltran
2. Beltre
3. Colon
4. Helton
5. Jones
6. Mauer
7. Manny
8. A-Rod
9. Shef
10. Utley

The post Off The Bench’s 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot Chat appeared first on Off The Bench.

Pick Your Team(s)

First, you need to choose who you want to see. You could pick one team to see or consider visiting a few places to see different teams in action and explore different cities. You have the most famous teams in major cities, like the Yankees and Red Sox, but there is also something special about seeing the smaller market teams at home. This includes teams like the Milwaukee Brewers, Kansas City Royals, and Pittsburgh Pirates.

Check The Schedule & Book Tickets

You will then want to check the schedule. The MLB regular season runs from April to September, with the playoffs taking place in October. You will want to fit your holiday around the fixtures, so spend time choosing your dates wisely – you might be able to fit two games in. Always book your tickets in advance, particularly if you are going to see one of the major teams.

Book Flights & Accommodation

Once you know what game(s) you are going to see, you can plan your holiday around this. This will involve booking your flights and accommodation, so research your options and book in advance. If it is going to be a long flight, you need to consider ways to stay entertained. Online casino games like JackpotCity will be a great way to pass the time. You can play blackjack, poker, roulette, slots, and all kinds of other exciting games with impressive visuals. You can even enjoy various sport-themed slots to get yourself in the mood!

Keep Up With The Latest

In the run-up to your big trip, you will want to keep up with the latest MLB news and results. You should try to watch a few games at home so that you have an idea of what to expect when you come. Knowing the rules, key players, and current form will make the experience far greater.

Soak It All Up

Finally, you want to soak it all up on game day. Give yourself plenty of time so that you can explore the stadium, visit the shop, grab a hotdog, and revel in the atmosphere. Watching a baseball game is a cultural experience and a chance to rub shoulders with passionate fans and feel like part of a community.

If you are planning to come to the US for a baseball game (or two), these tips should be useful and help you have the best possible experience.

The post What To Know For A Baseball Holiday appeared first on Off The Bench.

Understanding Prop Bets in MLB

Proposition bets, commonly known as prop bets, in Major League Baseball offer a unique way for fans to engage with the sport. These bets focus on specific events within a game rather than the game’s outcome. This type of betting adds an extra layer of interest to watching MLB games.

Types of MLB Prop Bets

Player Performance

These bets involve predicting a player’s performance in a game. For example, bettors may wager on how many strikeouts a pitcher will have or the number of hits and RBIs a batter will achieve.

In-Game Events

This category covers bets on events that could happen during the game. Common examples include predicting which team will score first or whether a game will go into extra innings.

Season-Long Achievements

Some prop bets extend beyond a single game, focusing on player or team achievements throughout the season. These can include betting on who will win awards like Most Valuable Player (MVP) or Cy Young.

Strategies for Making Prop Bets

Understanding player statistics and team dynamics is important. Bettors often analyze past performance, injury reports, and matchup histories to make informed decisions.

The Rise of Online Sports Betting

In recent years, online sports betting has become increasingly accessible, allowing fans to participate in MLB prop betting conveniently. These platforms offer a wide range of betting options and up-to-date information on players and teams.

Advantages of Online Betting Platforms

Accessibility

Online betting sites are easily accessible, enabling fans to place bets from anywhere at any time. This convenience has significantly increased participation in MLB prop betting.

Variety of Bets

Online platforms offer an extensive variety of prop bets, catering to different interests and strategies. This variety keeps the betting experience fresh and engaging for users.

Real-Time Data

These sites provide real-time data and analytics, helping bettors make more informed decisions. Access to up-to-date information is critical for prop betting, where player performance and game conditions can change rapidly.

Popular MLB Prop Bets

Strikeout Totals

Bettors often wager on the number of strikeouts a pitcher will record. This bet requires knowledge of the pitcher’s form and the opposing team’s batting capabilities.

Hit Totals

Predicting the number of hits a player will get in a game is another popular prop bet. This requires analyzing the player’s hitting history and the opposing pitcher’s performance.

Home Runs

Betting on whether a player will hit a home run in a game is a common prop bet. This type of bet often involves higher risk but can yield significant rewards.

Evaluating Team Performance for Prop Bets

Evaluating team performance is an essential aspect of making informed prop bets in MLB. Bettors often analyze team statistics, recent game results, and historical performance against specific opponents. Understanding a team’s strengths and weaknesses can provide insights into potential game outcomes and player performances.

Key Factors in Team Analysis

Offensive Capabilities

Analyzing a team’s offensive statistics, such as batting average and runs scored, helps predict their performance in upcoming games. Teams with strong offensive records might be more likely to achieve specific batting-related prop bets.

Defensive Strength

A team’s defensive abilities, including fielding stats and pitching strength, are necessary. Strong defensive teams may limit the opposing team’s scoring, impacting bets related to runs or hits allowed.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Examining past matchups between teams can reveal patterns and tendencies. This historical data can be particularly useful for prop bets focusing on team-based outcomes.

Impact of Weather and Venues on Prop Bets

Weather conditions and game venues play a significant role in the outcome of baseball games and, by extension, prop bets. Bettors often take these factors into account when placing wagers.

Weather Considerations

Wind Conditions

Wind speed and direction can influence the trajectory of the ball, affecting hitting and pitching. For instance, strong winds might increase the likelihood of home runs in certain ballparks.

Temperature and Humidity

Extreme temperatures and humidity levels can impact player performance and equipment, such as ball grip and bat handling. This can affect various prop bets, especially those related to player performance.

Venue Influence

Ballpark Dimensions

The size and layout of a ballpark can significantly impact gameplay. Some parks are known for being hitter-friendly or pitcher-friendly, which can influence prop bets on home runs or strikeouts.

Home Field Advantage

Playing at home can provide a psychological advantage for teams, often leading to better performance. Bettors might consider this when placing prop bets involving team performance or specific player achievements.

The Role of In-Depth Statistical Analysis in Prop Betting

In-depth statistical analysis is a cornerstone of successful MLB prop betting. Bettors who get into detailed statistics can gain an edge in predicting outcomes.

Advanced Metrics

Advanced metrics, such as WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for players and ERA+ (adjusted Earned Run Average) for pitchers, offer deeper insights into a player or team’s value and performance. These metrics can be particularly useful for more complex prop bets.

Trend Analysis

Analyzing trends in player and team performance over time can help bettors identify patterns and make more informed decisions. This includes looking at streaks, slumps, and historical performance under specific conditions.

Utilizing Technology

Many online sports betting platforms provide tools and resources for detailed statistical analysis. Bettors can use these tools to access a wealth of data, aiding their decision-making process in prop betting.

Tips for Successful Prop Betting in MLB

Research

Doing thorough research is key. Understanding player statistics, team dynamics, and recent performances can significantly increase the chances of successful betting.

Manage Expectations

It’s essential to approach prop betting with realistic expectations. While it can be exciting, it also involves risk. Bettors should bet responsibly and within their means.

Stay Informed

Keeping up with the latest news, such as player injuries or lineup changes, is important. This information can have a significant impact on the outcome of prop bets.

Conclusion

Prop betting in MLB offers a unique and engaging way for fans to connect with the sport. With the rise of online betting platforms, accessing and participating in these bets has become more convenient and varied. Success in prop betting requires research, realistic expectations, and staying informed about the latest developments in the league. As with any form of betting, it is important to participate responsibly.

The post What Are the Most Common Prop Bets Made During MLB Games appeared first on Off The Bench.

Some baseball fans prefer to keep the Hall of Fame exclusive, while others are more sympathetic to borderline candidates. Rather than Big-Hall or Small-Hall, here’s an All-Hall approach—one reason why every player on the ballot should be inducted.

Bobby Abreu– He is one of only three players in MLB history with 50 doubles, 20 home runs, and 30 stolen bases in a season, which he accomplished in 2002.

José Bautista– The greatest bat flip we’ll ever see.

Carlos Beltrán– His 86.4% stolen base percentage is the best ever with a minimum of 200 attempts.

Adrián Beltré– Elvis Andrus would be able to touch the head on his plaque without fear of reprisal.

Mark Buehrle– He threw a perfect game on July 23, 2009, then followed it with 5 2/3 perfect innings in his next start before giving up a walk. 45 consecutive batters retired is the record by a starting pitcher.

Bartolo Colon– The ugliest, most improbable home run in baseball history.

Adrián González- His 43.5 WAR is the sixth-most by a first-overall draft pick. The five ahead of him are either in the Hall already (Ken Griffey Jr. and Chipper Jones), on this year’s ballot (Álex Rodríguez and Joe Mauer), or still active (Bryce Harper).

Todd Helton– He has 13.5 more WAR for the Rockies than any other player in franchise history.

Matt Holliday– For contributing 50% of the DNA to the top prospect in the minors, he should get half of the credit for all the value his son accumulates. That should be more than enough to put him over the top.

Torii Hunter– Anecdotally robbed home runs better than anyone else, including this famous All-Star Game grab on a Barry Bonds deep fly:

Andruw Jones– He has 24.4 dWAR. No other center fielder in history even has 20. He’s also one of only three center fielders with at least ten Gold Gloves along with Willie Mays (12) and Griffey (ten).

Victor Martinez– His .295 batting average is the eighth-best by a catcher since integration. Well, he was mostly a catcher. Sort of.

Joe Mauer- In his MVP season of 2009, he led the league in all three triple-slash categories by batting .365/.444/.587. This broke the record for single-season batting average by a catcher in AL/NL history. He’s the only catcher to ever lead the league in slugging percentage.

Andy Pettitte– Since pickoffs became an official stat in 1973, no one has more than his 92 in a career.

Brandon Phillips– He’s one of seven second basemen with 200 home runs and 200 stolen bases. Four of the others are in the Hall of Fame already (Roberto Alomar, Craig Biggio, Joe Morgan, and Ryne Sandberg), one is still active (José Altuve), and one is not yet eligible for the Hall (Ian Kinsler).

Manny Ramírez- 555 home runs? Sure. Nine Silver Sluggers? Why not. The most dedicated cutoff man ever? You decide.

José Reyes- His 131 triples are more than any other player in the Wild-Card Era (1995-present).

Álex Rodríguez- He belted 30 home runs and collected 100 RBI for 13 consecutive years from 1998-2010. In the final game of the 2009 season, he finished with exactly 30 and 100 by crushing a three-run homer and a grand slam—hitting both in the same inning!

Francisco Rodríguez– His 437 saves are the fourth-most in a career, trailing Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera (652), Trevor Hoffman (601), and Lee Smith (478).

Jimmy Rollins– His 2,306 with the Philadelphia Phillies are the most in team history. The franchise has existed since 1883.

Gary Sheffield- The bat waggle.

James Shields– He was the last person with double-digit complete games in a season (11 in 2011) and no one will probably ever do it again.

Chase Utley– His 56.9 JAWS is the 12th-best ever by a second baseman. The only two players above him who aren’t in the Hall of Fame are Robinson Canó (not yet eligible) and Bobby Grich.

Omar Vizquel– Look, the guy is a terrible human being and has an 82 OPS+ over his career, but in the spirit of this exercise, he has 2,877 hits and 11 Gold Gloves.

Billy Wagner– Believe it or not, there are no left-handed relievers in the Hall of Fame yet! His 27.8 WAR is more than any other lefty reliever, more than seven ahead of second-place Aroldis Chapman.

David Wright– He’s the New York Mets’ all-time leader in position-player WAR (49.2), hits (1,777), total bases (2,945), RBI (970), walks (762), and several other stats. Doesn’t he deserve some kind of treat for suffering through an entire career in Queens?

The post One Semiserious Rationale for Every Player on the Hall of Fame Ballot appeared first on Off The Bench.