Findings and Recommendations for Laos

There are several different recommendations, essentially various dimensions of fiscal (budget) and monetary (banking) policies. The findings and projections are generally vague but somewhat reassuring.

Laos Macroeconomic situation

The Lao P.D.R. economy performed well in 2010. Fiscal and monetary policy were tightened but both remained accommodative. Inflation has picked up and the rapid expansion of domestic demand is still putting pressure on the balance of payments.

Outlook for Laos for 2011

The outlook for growth in 2011 is favorable but inflation is projected to rise further.

Laos Medium-term prospects

Given the pipeline of large hydropower and mining projects, the authorities’ objective to graduate from low-income country (LIC) status by 2020 looks achievable but a strengthening of macroeconomic policy frameworks is needed to mitigate risks to macroeconomic and financial stability.

IMF Focus on Laos

• The need to tighten macroeconomic policies in the near term to address potential pressures on the external position and ensure inflation remains contained; and
• The agenda to upgrade the broader framework for macroeconomic policy making and financial sector supervision as Lao P.D.R. pursues its ambitious development objectives.

Laos Fiscal Policy

The nonmining fiscal deficit should be kept on a declining path supported by sustained efforts to raise nonresource revenue to ensure that all elements of society contribute their fair share to the funding of Lao P.D.R.’s development and that adequate fiscal space is created for pro-poor spending. Public external debt management needs urgent strengthening.

Monetary and exchange rate policy in Laos

The Bank of Lao P.D.R. (BoL) should strengthen its monetary policy framework in order to effectively tighten monetary policy with a view to help sustain the stabilized exchange rate regime which remains the appropriate monetary anchor.

IMF Supporting Frameworks for Laos

The financial sector supervision framework needs to be strengthened starting with the regular compilation and monitoring of financial soundness indicators. The quality and availability of macroeconomic statistics needs to be upgraded building on the recent adoption of the new Statistics Law.

Looks like gondolas are out, and bam!’s greenery-filled outdoor rooms for Venice are in! Chosen out of 201 proposals from all five continents by a judging panel that included Bjarke Ingels of BIG Architects, the winning design of the Venice CityVision 2011 Design Competition aims to restore the relationship between Venetians and their famous canals. bam!’s vision included the sustainable use of the canals as well as filling them with floating pod rooms that can be used in any number of ways.

These concave floating structures are large rooms that float on the canals. They can be used for art workshops, as small allotments or gardens for residents, or even as transitional dwellings for starving artists! Instead of sitting on the waterside looking out, residents can enjoy their city from the canals that are currently dominated by tourists on gondolas. They are fresh, organic, and gift the waterways back to their rightful owners: the Venetians.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVxt7TkyeM

The Bottom of the Pyramid – BoP

The bottom of the pyramid (BoP) is the 2/3rds of the world who lives on the least amount of money. $2 USD/day is one of the standard amounts listed, but whatever the exact amount, it is clear that the market is enormous, and if you add 4 billion people to any dollar amount (such as $1), clearly there are billion-dollar markets here.

What I really like about these ideas is that they constitute an alternative to the poor as being wards of the state. While certain advances have been made in terms of extreme poverty and starvation, the use of governmental organizations and NGOs has been fairly disappointing, or certainly uneven at best.

Serving the World’s Poor, Profitably

Prahaland and Allen Hammond first published their thoughts in Harvard Business Review in 2002, in an article Serving the World’s Poor, Profitably – download the PDF.

Empirical Research on BoP Business Strategies

Some early empirical work is available on BoP strategies, such as the research article Reinventing strategies for emerging markets: beyond the transnational model.

Results suggest that the success of initiatives targeting low-income markets is enhanced by recognizing that Western-style patterns of economic development may not occur in these business environments. Business strategies that rely on leveraging the strengths of the existing market environment outperform those that focus on overcoming weaknesses. These strategies include developing relationships with non-traditional partners, co-inventing custom solutions, and building local capacity.

Interestingly, the summarized recommendation is for developing a global capability in social embeddedness. This is an extremely interesting kind of resource, one which is based on understanding and being able to interact effectively with socially embedded resources and networks.

Greed vs. Survival

The least effective component, at least for me, is the idea that this activity somehow must be capitalist and based on greed. I understand that this is needed in order to woo the multi-national firms, who are the thought to be soulless, even by these intelligent writers. At the same time, anyone with an ounce of vision can see how unsustainable it is to both relying on the middle classes for profits (merely from a resource-based approach). Regardless, this work forges a path which has long been neglected (though understood for decades by the likes of Unilver and Coca-Cola).

Social Enterprise

I am quite ambivalent regarding debt as a solution to poverty, as the cure can be worse than the cold. That said, the underlying principles of the social enterprise as articulated by Mohammad Yunus, and social entrepreneurship in general, are extremely promising. Indeed, he clearly articulates that Capitalism is defined too narrowly in these cases.

Dawn of Man

In the beginning was climate change. That’s right, climate change may have played a significant role in our early speciation. Indeed, this may be the case with many (most) species. Of course climate change plays a role in many (most) mass extinctions as well. Just to be clear, climate change happens, but also humans are now capable of contributing toward if not outright causing climate change. Enough said.

Homo Sapiens Sapiens developed around 200,000 years ago with fully modern characteristics about 50,000 years ago. Around that time there was movement of this species out of Africa.

40,000 Years Ago

40,000 years ago the K genetic mutation, which is common ancestor to R and O. This was perhaps in the area of modern day Iran, and Southwest Asia in any case. Here is where present day Southeast Asians and Caucasians diverged. We have common ancestors back at this timescale.

35,000 years ago the O mutation which is the original of Sino, Tibeto-Burman, Tai-Kradai and Austronesian (Malay/Philippino).

Last Glacial Maximum

20,000 years ago or so began the last Glacial Maximum up to around 10,000 years ago.

Between 15,000 and 7,000 years ago there were at least three large flooding periods from the effect of climate change (global warming), which submerged the Sunda Continent aka Sundaland and sent the Austronesian ancestors to places like Taiwan (rather than the reverse migration pattern long believed). Note that some folks believe that Sundaland is the Atlantis that Plato refers to, a submerged continent.

Note how fertile Sundaland is in terms of vegetation support and climactic zones at this time.

10,000 Years Ago, Migration to China Begins

Movement into China is the latest, not the earliest, as diversity in Han population is low, indicating its relative youth. The big expansion into China largely occured with rice cultivation, around 10,000 years ago.

Before and after this magic 10,000 year mark, migration as well as cultural and ethnic differentiation took place at the level in which we find ourselves different from one another in terms of groups of people. Archaeological evidence of the neolithic and copper, bronze and iron age commences.

4,000 Years Ago in Southeast Asia

There is mitochondrial DNA evidence of migration from insular Southeast Asia within the last 10,000 years. For example, in modern day Udon Thai there is evidence of ongoing habitation back 4,000 years in the Ban Chiang archaeological site. That said, the orignal inhabitatants are most likely not related to the current Thai people. If anything, in Southeast Asia there has been successive waves of various populations as well as movement of populations by ruling powers. See more of the Archaeological sites in Thailand.

• Adoption and adaption of languages and language technology
• Adoption and adaption of religious practices

Austronesian Languages

The Austronesian languages can be considered the ocean-going, sea-faring people who essentially stayed in Sundaland as it became submerged.

Austro-Asiatic Languages

The Austro-Asiatic are a grouping which are more confined to low-land and coastal areas.

Tai-Kradai Languages

The Tai-Kradai including modern Lao, Thai, Shan (Tai Yai), etc., are in the mountains of modern-day southern China (Guanxi and Yunnan provinces) as well as the Chao Phraya basin. It is thought that this linguistic-ethnic group came from Taiwan, though they could equally have gone to Taiwan. In any case, the record since around 1,000 CE is one where this group displaced the Khmer-Mon populations in modern day Laos and Thailand, and eventually overwhelmed and largely annexed the Khmer empire.

Hmong-Mien Languages

The Hmong-Mien languages and ethnic groups make up a number of the hill tribes in Thailand and Laos, as well as northern Vietnam and southern China.

Tibeto-Burman Languages

The other major language group in the region is Tibeto-Burman. I follow the most recent scholarship which places Chinese under the Tibetan component rather than as a major branch at the top level. As mentioned above, Chinese and the Han people are much younger than previously accorded. Nothing wrong with that. Indeed the vigor of this linguistic and ethnic group is many thousands of years old, the backwardness of their own middle ages notwithstanding. When dealing with a culture we have to thing in terms of thousands of years, not hundreds, to get a sense of what is happening.

Movement of Languages and Peoples

Where we can really talk about history, begins around 1,000 CE. In which we have useful archeological records as well as written records of visitors and trading partners. One thing that becomes clear is that the movement of populations, for various purposes and impetus, is the overriding feature when dealing with the timescale of decades and centuries

• Migration of Tai into Northern Thailand/Laos from around 900-1100 CE
• Ayuuthaya and Lanna Kingdoms, the creation of Chiang Mai, it subsequent abandonment and repopulation
• Laos/Isaan and the displacement of Lao people into the previously forested Khorat plateau (creating Northeast Thailand in the process)
• Angkor Wat and its sacking, the collapse of the metropolitan area and the area becoming deserted
• Vientiane itself was depopulated and deserted

All these are simply reference points and converge together the various genetic, archaeological, linquistic and written historical record shows a great diversity of peoples, cultures and the very geography they inhabited. Sundaland and Indochina, what has become insular and mainland Southeast Asia, an area of fantastic variety.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lg9qnWg9kak

CASSINI MISSION from cabbas on Vimeo.