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		<title>The Dollar &amp; Gold Have Eyes on Europe</title>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 05 May 2012 19:29:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>J.W. Jones</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Newsletter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recent Options Trade]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Currency Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US Dollar Trading]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Friday saw heavy selling pressure coming into risk assets, specifically equities and oil. However, the real driving force behind the selling pressure is likely the result of several unrelated economic/geopolitical events. Clearly the unemployment report had an impact on price action, but strangely enough it would appear to those more in tune with reality that [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Friday saw heavy selling pressure coming into risk assets, specifically equities and oil. However, the real driving force behind the selling pressure is likely the result of several unrelated economic/geopolitical events. Clearly the unemployment report had an impact on price action, but strangely enough it would appear to those more in tune with reality that market participants want lower prices so that the next quantitative easing program can be initiated.</p>
<p>Another key development in equities price action as of late has been selling pressure in Apple (AAPL). A few weeks ago we witnessed a sharp downturn after prices surged higher into a blowoff top. Earnings came out and prices jumped again and we have watched Apple’s stock price drop considerably since.</p>
<p>Friday saw sellers circling the wagons pushing the tech behemoth down around 2.25% as of the scribbling of this article. When AAPL was rallying it helped the Nasdaq Composite and the S&amp;P 500 grind higher. Now that it has clearly given up the bullish leadership role, it now appears to be a drag on the price action of domestic indices.</p>
<p>Additionally there was a mountain of economic data released out of Europe overnight which was entirely negative. Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the Euro-area in general saw their Service PMI readings all come in below expectations. Europe is moving into a recession which whether economists want to acknowledge it or not has implications on domestic U.S. markets. The Eurozone as a whole is the largest economy in the world. Clearly the European economy is slowing, and our exports to Europe will slow as well.</p>
<p>This leads me to the final data point which is still unknown. What will the outcome of the French and Greek elections over the weekend mean for the Eurozone’s geopolitical ties as well as the potential impact on the Euro currency itself?</p>
<p>The answer to that question will likely not be known until late Sunday evening; however by the time U.S. markets open this coming Monday the cat(s) will be out of the bag. This final question leads me to the real topic of this article. The question I want to know is what impact these elections could have on the value of the U.S. Dollar Index as well as gold?</p>
<p>As an option trader, I am always focused on the volatility index (VIX) as well as implied volatility on a number of underlying assets. I came across the following chart courtesy of Bloomberg which appeared in an article posted on zerohedge.com. The chart below illustrates the differential between European Union equities’ implied volatility levels and the EUR/USD currency pair.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Chart1.jpg" rel="lightbox[1028]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1029" title="Currency Trading" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Chart1.jpg" alt="Currency Trading" width="721" height="406" /></a></p>
<p><strong><em>Chart Courtesy of Bloomberg</em></strong></p>
<p>It is rather obvious that EU stocks and the EUR/USD implied volatility levels have diverged. Generally speaking, when volatility increases it means that price action will typically move lower. The higher levels of volatility, the lower the price the underlying will move. There are exceptions to that rule such as earnings reports or key headlines which drive volatility higher, but generally speaking high volatility levels correlate with uncertainty and risk.</p>
<p>What is particularly troubling about the chart above is that the EUR/USD currency pair is seeing reduced implied volatility. This essentially means that the market is not expecting any major moves in the currency pair amid all of the poor economic numbers coming out of Europe.</p>
<p>For those not familiar, the EUR/USD currency pair reflects the value of the Euro against the Dollar. Thus, if the EUR/USD is rising, this means that the Euro is moving higher against the Dollar. The opposite is true when EUR/USD is selling off.</p>
<p>At present implied volatility levels are quite low by comparison to European equities. The zerohedge.com article entitled “Is EURUSD Volatility About to Explode?” shares the following statement to readers, “The last two times this has occurred (in the last year), EURUSD implied vol has rapidly caught up to equity’s risk.”</p>
<p>What that statement means is that it is becoming more likely that implied volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair is going to increase back in par with European stocks. If that takes place, which based on recent data is likely, the intraday volatility in the EUR/USD will increase thus intraday price ranges and sharp moves will become more prevalent.</p>
<p>The long story short is if implied volatility picks up in EUR/USD then it is likely going to be quite beneficial to the U.S. Dollar. The largest concern for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has to be the potential for a monstrous move higher in the U.S. Dollar should an unforeseen event arise in Europe. An event such as a disastrous auction or the discussion by German Parliament about leaving the Euro could both help push the Dollar much higher than anyone expects.</p>
<p>A higher Dollar is negative for risk assets and Mr. Bernanke does not like the word deflation at all. None of the central banks around the world like deflation because it means all of the debt they are holding and helping to prop up has a much more significant intrinsic value. If the Dollar is worth more, Dollar denominated debt is also more expensive to pay off.</p>
<p>The U.S. Dollar Index has languished for several weeks, but recently the greenback started to reverse higher and at this time has managed to push above major resistance levels overhead on the daily timeframe. The daily chart of the U.S. Dollar Index is shown below.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/chart2.jpg" rel="lightbox[1028]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1030" title="US Dollar Trading" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/chart2.jpg" alt="US Dollar Trading" width="738" height="539" /></a></p>
<p>If the Dollar remains firm into the bell on Friday which appears likely, the results of the two key European elections over the weekend could provide the ammo needed to really force the U.S. Dollar higher or lower depending on market sentiment. It appears the Dollar wants to go higher currently, but a sharp reversal is not out of the question.</p>
<p>The key level to watch is the 80.76 price level on the U.S. Dollar Index futures. If that level gets taken out, the Dollar could extend to recent highs and beyond should the situation in Europe begin to unravel.</p>
<p>If the Dollar surges what will that mean for gold? Generally speaking most readers would expect gold and silver to move lower on Dollar strength. For a time, that would likely be true, but if a real currency crisis plays out gold and the Dollar might rally together as citizens would try to move their wealth into safe, liquid assets.</p>
<p>Under that type of scenario, gold and silver could both rally along with the Dollar. When the moment finally arrives where the Euro begins to selloff sharply, physical gold and silver will be tough to acquire in Europe.</p>
<p>In the short to intermediate term, gold will likely continue to drift lower searching for a critical bottom. The weekly chart of gold futures below demonstrates the key support and resistance levels that may have to be tested before a major reversal can play out.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Chart3.jpg" rel="lightbox[1028]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1031" title="Gold Trading" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Chart3.jpg" alt="Gold Trading" width="704" height="421" /></a></p>
<p>Make no mistake, I remain a gold bull in the long term. However, in the short run the Dollar has the potential to outperform gold under the right circumstances. Ultimately it is important to recognize the distinction between selling pressure and what would likely happen in a full blown currency crisis in Europe which is possible, if not ultimately inevitable.</p>
<p>The price action over the weekend on Monday will likely be telling and we could see the beginning of a major move in a variety of underlying assets depending on the election results. Clearly times have changed when U.S. market participants are concerned about what is going on in Europe more so than domestic issues. Unfortunately, we live in very strange times.</p>
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<p>Jw Jones<br />
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<p><em>This material should not be considered investment advice. J.W. Jones is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this article or the OptionsTradingSignals.com website be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security or commodity contract. This material is not a solicitation for a trading approach to financial markets. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This information is for educational purposes only.</em></p>
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		<title>Why the U.S. Dollar is Critical for the S&amp;P 500 Index this Week</title>
		<link>http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/why-the-u-s-dollar-is-critical-for-the-sp-500-index-this-week/</link>
		<comments>http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/why-the-u-s-dollar-is-critical-for-the-sp-500-index-this-week/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Apr 2012 00:18:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>J.W. Jones</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Newsletter]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/?p=1017</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Unfortunately I was sick the past few weeks and I am just now getting back into the swing of things. Similar to the demand pull that the warmer than usual spring has had on macroeconomic data, the warmer spring caused me to have an earlier than usual sinus infection as well as some horrific allergies. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Unfortunately I was sick the past few weeks and I am just now getting back into the swing of things. Similar to the demand pull that the warmer than usual spring has had on macroeconomic data, the warmer spring caused me to have an earlier than usual sinus infection as well as some horrific allergies. I suppose I am pushing it a bit far when I am comparing my health concerns to economic data, but alas I fly my nerd flag proudly.</p>
<p>Recently I have been advising members of my service to be cautious as the market appears to be at a major crossroads. The U.S. Dollar Index is on the verge of a major breakdown. If a breakdown occurs it will be clear that the Federal Reserve will have officially stopped any potential rise in the U.S. Dollar. Over the past few months the Dollar has been producing a series of higher highs and higher lows, however the current cycle may break the pattern as can be seen below.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chart11.jpg" rel="lightbox[1017]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1018" title="US Dollar Option Trading" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chart11.jpg" alt="" width="688" height="422" /></a></p>
<p>If the U.S. Dollar pushes down below the recent lows and we get continuation to the downside, we will break the recent bullish pattern. Furthermore, if the Dollar starts to weaken it should benefit equities and other risk assets such as oil. Higher energy prices would not be long term bullish for equity markets so there is concern if the Dollar really starts to extend lower.</p>
<p>However, if the Dollar finds a bottom and rallies it clearly would create a headwind for equities. We should know whether we have a major breakdown on the daily chart in the next few weeks. Until then, the Dollar could go either way and obviously the price action in the Dollar will have a major impact on risk assets and stock market returns in the near future.</p>
<p>From a macroeconomic viewpoint, risk assets such as the S&amp;P 500 Index could be in trouble in the months ahead. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) came in lower than expected with revisions likely in the near future. Unemployment claims appear to have bottomed and are rising week after week even though the major media fails to report it appropriately as it would appear that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has stumped media pundits with data revisions.</p>
<p>Additionally, there are two other macroeconomic data points which need to be mentioned. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has moved below zero and is showing a negative reading. This index is generally a leading indicator regarding equity prices and the recent decline shown below is problematic for the bullish case.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chart21.jpg" rel="lightbox[1017]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1019" title="Chart2" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chart21.jpg" alt="" width="636" height="393" /></a><em>Chart Courtesy of Morgan Stanley</em></p>
<p>As can be seen above, fundamental data is starting to skew towards the downside which is likely a result of the recession that is in the process of developing over in Europe and potentially in China. Time will tell if the index can reverse, but the bulls need to see a major reversal in the near future.</p>
<p>The chart below illustrates the relationship between metal prices and industrial productivity. Demand for metal increases when economies are expanding and prices generally contract when economies retract. The chart below demonstrates global metal demand. The chart speaks for itself.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chart31.jpg" rel="lightbox[1017]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1020" title="Chart3" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chart31.jpg" alt="" width="953" height="468" /></a><em>Chart Courtesy of </em><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/">Morgan Stanley</a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Clearly if industrial production contracts (reduction in Global Manufacturing PMI) the impact on the global economy will be felt across multiple countries&#8217; economies. The chart below illustrates the MSCI World Index compared to global manufacturing PMI. Similarly to the chart above, this chart also tells a significant story about what investors and traders should expect if the PMI numbers come in light   against expectations.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chart4.jpg" rel="lightbox[1017]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1021" title="Chart4" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chart4.jpg" alt="" width="981" height="461" /></a><em>Chart Courtesy of Morgan Stanley</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>As quoted from the zerohedge.com article entitled <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/what-do-metal-prices-tell-us-about-future-stock-market">What do Metal Prices Tell us About the Future of the Stock Market</a>, “In other words, for those who still believe in logical, causal relationships (even in a time of ubiquitous central planning) unless something drastically changes to push fundamental demand of metals higher, one could say the the outlook for equities is not good.”</p>
<p>Essentially, the data shown above is certainly not bullish in the intermediate to longer term. However, it generally takes time for macroeconomic data to permeate all the way through to equity markets. For right now, the story regarding global growth is at the very least questionable based on the data illustrated above.</p>
<p>In the short term anything is seemingly possible. The S&amp;P 500 Index closed above the key 1,400 price level on Friday. I would not be shocked to see prices extend up to the recent highs near 1,420. Ultimately I think we are in a long term topping formation that might require another higher high up to around 1,440 before we see a deeper correction.</p>
<p>The past few weeks have produced a very mild correction compared to the monster rally we have seen since October of 2011. This is a bullish signal, but we need to see prices continue higher and climb a serious “wall of worry” that is coming out of a variety of places. The European situation continues to worsen overall and we have lower than expected GDP numbers in the US paired with concerns about growth in China.</p>
<p>The S&amp;P 500 has some negative headlines to deal with, but so far it has been able to shrug off poor economic data and we could see an extension higher that would shake out the shorts and run stops above the recent highs. However a move lower remains possible. The daily chart of the S&amp;P 500 illustrates the recent correction and the 1,420 highs.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chart5.jpg" rel="lightbox[1017]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1022" title="Spread Option Trading" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chart5.jpg" alt="" width="699" height="421" /></a></p>
<p>I believe that the next few weeks are going to be critical and the S&amp;P 500 may trade in a consolidation zone between recent lows and the 1,420 highs while traders await more economic data. Fundamental data is starting to indicate that a slow down may be beginning. In contrast, the topping pattern that we appear to be carving out may require higher prices to suck in more longs before moving into a deeper correction.</p>
<p>In the short run, the Dollar will likely hold clues regarding the immediate future for risk assets. However, the longer term picture for equities is quite murky based on the economic data points we are seeing paired with additional concerns stemming from the European sovereign debt crisis. Right now I am looking at time decay based strategies in the near term and will likely stay away from directional biased trades. I would urge readers to be cautious regardless of which direction they favor.</p>
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This material should not be considered investment advice. J.W. Jones is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this article or the OptionsTradingSignals.com website be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security or commodity contract. This material is not a solicitation for a trading approach to financial markets. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This information is for educational purposes only.</p>
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		<title>Gold Prices Are Set for Further Decline</title>
		<link>http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/gold-prices-are-set-for-further-decline/</link>
		<comments>http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/gold-prices-are-set-for-further-decline/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Apr 2012 15:46:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>J.W. Jones</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Newsletter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Best Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Option Newsletter]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/?p=1004</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the not-so-distant past arguing that precious metals prices were setup to fall generally elicited a response which was not real pleasant. In fact, during gold&#8217;s infamous bull market rally on several occasions I called for pullbacks which regardless of the accuracy of my call generated hate mail that seemingly never ended. Fast forward to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the not-so-distant past arguing that precious metals prices were setup to fall generally elicited a response which was not real pleasant. In fact, during gold&#8217;s infamous bull market rally on several occasions I called for pullbacks which regardless of the accuracy of my call generated hate mail that seemingly never ended.</p>
<p>Fast forward to the present and hardcore gold bugs remain transfixed on the idea that precious metals must rise. The gold bull market has ended, at least for now and those still holding the bag are looking at large losses from the all time highs set back in 2011.</p>
<p>These same gold bugs will cite a litany of reasons why gold should be moving higher from the unprecedented printing of money by global central banks to the deficit spending and eventual fiscal day of reckoning facing most Western nations. I do not disagree with the gold bugs that in the long run gold prices will rally above the all time highs, but in the short to intermediate term there are several forces which have the potential to drive gold prices lower.</p>
<p>Gold prices cannot rise continually,regardless of the macro-economic backdrop. Nothing, not even Apple Computer (AAPL) or Priceline.com (PCLN) will rise forever. Eventually prices will come back down to earth and revert to the long term mean. It has happened in gold and it will happen to Apple Computer and Priceline.com at some point in the future, it is simply a matter of time.</p>
<p>Before I discuss my reasoning as to why gold and silver are likely to pullback in the intermediate term, I need to remind readers that I remain long-term bullish of precious metals. While the long-term remains bright, the short-term is especially murky and dark.</p>
<p>The first primary concern for gold bugs should be the price behavior of the U.S. Dollar Index recently. The Dollar has rallied sharply higher after carving out a higher low on the daily chart (bullish). The Dollar is on the verge of breaking out above a major descending trendline on the daily chart. Once that breakout to the upside has occurred it will become likely that the recent highs will be tested and possibly taken out. The daily chart of the Dollar Index is shown below.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4 style="text-align: center;"><strong>Dollar Index Daily Chart</strong></h4>
<p><a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chart1.jpg" rel="lightbox[1004]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1005" title="US Dollar Index Trading Chart" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chart1.jpg" alt="" width="690" height="531" /></a></p>
<p>The U.S. Dollar&#8217;s price action shown above is not indicative of bearish expectations. In fact, I would argue that the Dollar is, and likely will remain in a bull market in the short and intermediate time frames. However, it is important to recognize that strong periods of volatility will persist as Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve will continue to try to break the Dollar&#8217;s rally as it tries to grind higher.</p>
<p>The Federal Reserve hates deflation, and a stronger Dollar will push risk assets like equities lower and right now that is not part of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s election playbook. QE III will likely be announced at some point in the future as an attempt to break the Dollar&#8217;s rally and to put a floor underneath stock prices.</p>
<p>The Federal Reserve has used QE I and QE II to help prevent economic disaster. Recently “Operation Twist” has also been used to increase liquidity while keeping the bullish game going. Low interest rates and additional easing adjustments have staved off disaster before and they will likely be utilized again by the Federal Reserve.</p>
<p>Ultimately the free market and cycles will exert their will and the Federal Reserve will be left helpless. The day where monetary easing has no major impact is coming, but we are not quite there just yet.</p>
<p>In addition to the strength in the Dollar Index, the gold miners have been under major selling pressure. In fact, the gold miners have recently broken down out of a major consolidation zone that will likely lead to lower prices in the near term.</p>
<p>Unless gold miners can regain the breakdown level on a major reversal this coming week, the most we can hope for is a backtest of the support trendline sometime in the near future once the miner&#8217;s become significantly oversold. The weakness in the miners is just another example as to why lower prices for gold appear to be likely in the short to intermediate time frames. The weekly chart of the gold miners ETF is shown below.</p>
<h4 style="text-align: center;"><strong>Gold Miner&#8217;s (GDX) Weekly Chart</strong></h4>
<p><a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chart2.jpg" rel="lightbox[1004]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1006" title="Gold Miner Stock Index and ETF" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chart2.jpg" alt="" width="700" height="528" /></a></p>
<p>The gold miners are likely to lead equity markets lower in the near term, but lower prices for gold miners is certainly not positive for gold either. Obviously there are several economic factors which could still see gold prices working higher such as a collapse of the Eurozone, however at this moment the likelihood of that outcome in the short to intermediate term is not likely.</p>
<p>The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are not going to give up that easily. The process of admitting defeat will take time and global central banks will print money until they feel they have papered over the issue. It is the culmination of either QE III or other monetary easing around the world that will eventually move gold back above the all time highs. Unfortunately the short term price action of gold will most certainly remain under selling pressure barring any major unexpected announcements. The daily chart of gold futures is shown below.</p>
<h4 style="text-align: center;"><strong>Gold Futures Daily Chart<br />
<a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chart3.jpg" rel="lightbox[1004]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1007" title="Gold Futures Trading Chart" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chart3.jpg" alt="" width="698" height="531" /></a><br />
</strong></h4>
<p>As shown above, I believe that short term targets to the downside are likely somewhere in the 1,475 – 1,525 price range. I think gold will find a major bottom near these levels and a strong bounce will play out. For long term buyers, I would take advantage of the forthcoming pullback. However, I would be mindful that further selling is quite possible before gold finds a major bottom.</p>
<p>As I said before, the longer term is bright for gold. However, the short to intermediate term will likely see more selling pressure. Until either the Dollar tops or some form of major quantitative easing is announced, I would anticipate lower prices in the yellow metal.</p>
<p>In the near term gold does not look attractive, but the longer term the catalysts for a major move above recent highs are present. The real question has become when and where will the Dollar top? When the Dollar tops and gold finds a major bottom, the potential for a monster move higher will become likely.</p>
<p>Until then, risk remains high.</p>
<h4 style="text-align: center;"><strong>Looking for a Simple ONE Trade Per Week Trading Strategy?<br />
If So Join <a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com">www.OptionsTradingSignals.com</a> today with our 14 Day Trial</strong></h4>
<p>Jw Jones<br />
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<address>This material should not be considered investment advice. J.W. Jones is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this article or the OptionsTradingSignals.com website be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security or commodity contract. This material is not a solicitation for a trading approach to financial markets. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This information is for educational purposes only.</address>
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		<title>Option Trading: A Basic Explanation of Debit Spreads</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2012 13:12:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>J.W. Jones</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Newsletter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recent Options Trade]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dredit spread trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[learn to trade options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Option Education]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Welcome back to the world of options. My reality exists in three dimensions and far more combinations of potential positions than does the one-dimensional world of the stock trader. The view from my turret is ruled by the three primal forces of options &#8212; time to expiration, price of the underlying, and implied volatility. Consider [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;">Welcome back to the world of options. My reality exists in three dimensions and far more combinations of potential positions than does the one-dimensional world of the stock trader.</p>
<p>The view from my turret is ruled by the three primal forces of options &#8212; <em>time to expiration, price of the underlying, and implied volatility</em>. Consider for a moment the fact that each of these factors can independently impact a given option.</p>
<p>Multiply this by several available expiration dates and strike prices; add in the fact that individual option positions can include a variety of short and long positions at different strikes and expirations, and the potential combinations that make up an option position in a single underlying can approach a very large number.</p>
<p>For those traders first beginning to navigate this unfamiliar world, I think it is important to understand trade selection is manageable. There are certain families of trades that are unified by similar characteristics.</p>
<p>It is important to become familiar with the various trade constructions available to the knowledgeable options trader. Grouping the potential trades into related groups dramatically reduces the number of trade setups you must consider before entering a new trade.</p>
<p>If you are familiar with the various trade constructions, it makes discussion of a specific family member whom we may consider for employment in a trade far easier to understand.</p>
<p>Description of the family characteristics will take a little time, but it forms the framework on which we can hang the individual trades we will discuss in future postings.</p>
<p>I want readers to begin to become familiar with these patterns because it is these families of multi-legged option trades that we will return to on a regular basis to consistently perform for us.</p>
<p>Let me begin discussion of the various families by pointing out the redheaded stepchild of the trade constructions available. This family member, the single-legged position of being long either a put or call, is not completely without utility.</p>
<p>The reason for its seldom use is that for the knowledgeable options trader, this position rarely represents the best risk / reward structure given the variety of available trade constructions.</p>
<p>One basic and important family is that of the vertical spread. We will return several times to this family not only because of its utility in its basic form, but also because these spreads form the basic building blocks for more advanced spreads such as butterflies and iron condors.</p>
<p>The basic vertical spread is constructed by both buying and selling an option of the same type, either puts or calls, within the same expiration series. This is a directional spread with one breakeven point that reaches maximum profitability at expiration or when the spread has moved deep in-the-money.</p>
<p>It has a defined maximum profit and defined maximum loss when established. The spread is used to trade directionally in a capital efficient manner and largely neutralizes impacts of changes in implied volatility.</p>
<p>There are four individual vertical spread family members &#8212; the call debit spread, the call credit spread, the put debit spread, and the put credit spread. Each has its distinct and defining construction pattern. These are not the only names by which these spreads are known. Trying to keep independent option traders confined to a single set of terminologies is like trying to herd cats &#8212; it is not going to happen.</p>
<p>For this reason, the additional confusing and duplicative names for these spreads include bull call spread, bear call spread, bear put spread, and bull put spread. To make matters even more confusing, traders often refer to “buying a call spread” or “selling a put spread.” This multiplicity of names for the same trade structure is mightily confusing to those getting used to my world.</p>
<p>I am a visual learner and find that a picture is worth well more than the often cited thousand words. When I review in my mind the various option families available to use in trade construction, I think of the characteristic family portrait of each as displayed in the profit and loss, or P&amp;L, curve.</p>
<p>Attached below is the first in our series of family portraits, but remember within this framework is abundant room for individual variation.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/aapldebit.jpg" rel="lightbox[997]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-998" title="aapldebit" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/aapldebit.jpg" alt="" width="738" height="400" /></a><br />
<strong>This particular example is a call debit spread, a bullish position in Apple (AAPL).</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">
<p style="text-align: left;">We will see trades displayed in this format with many variations as we meet the different families. The solid red line represents the profit or loss at expiration. The dotted line represents the P&amp;L curve today and the dashed line the curve halfway to options expiration from today.</p>
<p>In future articles I will discuss other trade constructions that are regularly employed by experienced option traders. Until then, be sure to manage your risk accordingly.</p>
<p>In 2012 subscribers of my options trading newsletter have <strong>won 12 out of 13 trades</strong>. That’s a <strong>92% win rate</strong>,  pocketing <strong>serious gains</strong> with the trades focusing only on low risk credit spread options strategies.</p>
<p><strong>If you are looking for a simple one trade per week trading style then be sure to join <a href="../../">www.OptionsTradingSignals.com</a> today with our 14 Day Trial</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Jw Jones</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">
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<p><em>This material should not be considered investment advice. J.W. Jones is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this article or the OptionsTradingSignals.com website be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security or commodity contract. This material is not a solicitation for a trading approach to financial markets. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This information is for educational purposes only.</em></p>
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		<title>The Fed, Gold, the S&amp;P 500, &amp; the Retail Mindset</title>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Mar 2012 00:10:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>J.W. Jones</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Newsletter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recent Options Trade]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[“And if you look away, you&#8217;ll be doing what they say. And if you look alive, you&#8217;ll be singled out and tried. If you take home anything, let it be your will to think. The more cynical you become, the better off you&#8217;ll be. Something to believe in.” ~ The Offspring, Something to Believe In [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;"><em>“<strong>And if you look away, you&#8217;ll be doing what they say.</strong></em></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><em><strong>And if you look alive, you&#8217;ll be singled out and tried.</strong></em></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><em><strong>If you take home anything, let it be your will to think.</strong></em></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><em><strong>The more cynical you become, the better off you&#8217;ll be.</strong></em></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><em><strong>Something to believe in.”</strong></em></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong> ~ The Offspring, Something to Believe In ~</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The recent rally has been breathtaking, however the majority of investors have missed out on a large portion of these gains as significant levels of cash have been either moved to bond funds or taken out of equity markets consistently during this rally. Let’s face it, financial markets around the world are not what they once were.</p>
<p>U.S. equity markets in particular are manipulated by high frequency trading which is wreaking havoc in the marketplace in terms of potential short term volatility expansions and “flash crashes” that can be isolated to one underlying stock.</p>
<p>In addition to the high frequency trading robots, the Federal Reserve is equally involved in the direct manipulation of financial markets through record easing adjustments. The Federal Reserve has unleashed massive amounts of liquidity while keeping interest rates incredibly low which has produced an environment where the risk-on attitude permeates the landscape.</p>
<p>As a basic example of the failure of recent Federal Reserve policies and their impact generally on the valuation of various underlying assets, I submit for consideration to readers a 20 year price chart of the U.S. Dollar Index.</p>
<h3> <strong>20 Year U.S. Dollar Index Chart</strong></h3>
<p><a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/USDHISTart.jpg" rel="lightbox[961]"><img class="aligncenter  wp-image-962" title="USDHISTart" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/USDHISTart.jpg" alt="" width="860" height="435" /></a></p>
<p>It boggles the mind to consider that Chairman Bernanke routinely denies that the Federal Reserve has failed to maintainwhat he calls “price stability.” When looking at the chart of the valuation of the U.S. Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, most 5<sup>th</sup> graders if given the context would proclaim that the Federal Reserve has failed in their objective to maintain price stability.</p>
<p>As time passes and the financial crisis moves further into the rear view mirror, average Americans have varied views about the economy, the stock market, and trust in their government. For most Americans, the stock market does not make sense because they view the stock market and the economy as the same thing. Sophisticated investors understand that stocks and the economy are two totally separate issues, particularly with the amount of manipulation that has been taken place since 2007.</p>
<p>This manipulation has not gone unnoticed by the average American. Now more than ever regular people are not only distrustful of domestic financial markets, but they do not trust Wall Street, and for good reason. In light of this, data compiled during the recent uptrend suggests that retail investors have been pulling money out of equities for weeks even though prices continue to move higher. The chart shown below courtesy of ZeroHedge.com illustrates the recent trend.</p>
<h3><strong>U.S. Domestic Mutual Fund Flows </strong></h3>
<p><a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/ZHart.jpg" rel="lightbox[961]"><img class="aligncenter  wp-image-963" title="ZHart" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/ZHart.jpg" alt="" width="814" height="518" /></a></p>
<p>The chart above shows the price of SPY represented as the black line and equity fund inflows/outflows as the red area. As can be seen above, retail investors have been pulling massive amounts of capital out of equity based mutual funds over the past few months as equity prices have rallied. The retail crowd, commonly referred to as sheep or courtesy of Goldman Sachs “muppets,” are selling into the rally.</p>
<p>So why is the retail crowd selling? They do not believe that this rally will last because the real world around them is arguing in the face of everything that this rally stands for. Gasoline prices are crippling the lower and middle classes further reducing their disposable income. Higher food and energy prices paired with job scarcity and serious concerns have begun to mount.</p>
<p>The average retail investor believes the game is rigged at this point and the everyday investor is only helping Wall Street bankers fund their lavish lifestyles. Ultimately, the retail crowd likelybelieves that the only way to win the game is to simply not play.</p>
<p>Will time prove the supposed sheep wrong? Statistically one would think so, but in this case the retail folks may just be right. Headwinds surround the global macroeconomic landscape. Europe is moving into a recession which is being exacerbated by austerity measures. Data came out yesterday (Thursday) that the PMI in several European countries and China contracted. Ireland missed growth targets and central banks around the world continue to print unprecedented levels of fiat currency as if printing money and creating more debt will solve a debt problem.</p>
<p>All of these issues are concerns, but ultimately price is the final arbiter in the world of flickering ticks. From these eyes there are two possible outcomes for the price action in the S&amp;P 500. The first outcome which I believe is more likely is a test of the 2011 highs which results in a snap-back rally that takes us deeper into the 1,420 – 1,440 resistance zone. The chart below demonstrates the bullish potential outcome.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>SPX Bullish Outcome</strong></h3>
<p><a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/SPXBULLart.jpg" rel="lightbox[961]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-964" title="SPXBULLart" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/SPXBULLart.jpg" alt="" width="704" height="542" /></a></p>
<p>Price action at some point will backtest the 2011 highs and the reaction at that point will be critical. Generally speaking price action does not break a key support or resistance level on the first attempt. Usually the 2<sup>nd</sup> or 3<sup>rd</sup> attempt will result in a break of a key support / resistance level.</p>
<p>In this case, a test in coming days would likely result in a bounce and reversion to the previous trend. A possible, albeit unlikely outcome would be a break below the 2011 support zone which would then come close to triggering a trend change. The daily chart below demonstrates the bearish potential outcome.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>SPX Bearish Outcome</strong></h3>
<p><a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/SPXBEARart.jpg" rel="lightbox[961]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-965" title="SPXBEARart" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/SPXBEARart.jpg" alt="" width="704" height="542" /></a></p>
<p>I do firmly believe that the U.S. Dollar Index will hold clues about the future for the price action of equities. According to cycle analysis, the Dollar should come into is daily cycle low sometime in the next few weeks, if not sooner.</p>
<p>From that low, we should see another move higher for the Dollar Index which I anticipate will test the recent highs near 81. The daily chart of the U.S. Dollar Index futures is shown below.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>U.S. Dollar Index Futures Daily Chart</strong></h3>
<p><a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/USDart1.jpg" rel="lightbox[961]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-967" title="USDart" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/USDart1.jpg" alt="" width="625" height="481" /></a></p>
<p>If my expectations are somewhat accurate, the short term weakness in the Dollar will assist stocks and risk assets in a move above recent highs. In the case of the S&amp;P 500, a move to key resistance at 1,420 – 1,450 could occur.</p>
<p>Readers should keep in mind that weakness could be disguised as just a consolidation near the 20 period moving average which has occurred in the past when analyzing the Dollar Index. However, I would not rule out one more leg lower before the Dollar finds a bottom.</p>
<p>Gold, silver, and the miners have been under selling pressure for some time and are likely due for a bounce to the upside. The weakness in the Dollar discussed above would allow precious metals and miners to work off some of the short term oversold conditions that we are seeing presently. The daily chart of gold futures is shown below.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Gold Futures Daily Chart</strong></h3>
<p><a href="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/GOLDart1.jpg" rel="lightbox[961]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-966" title="GOLDart" src="http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/GOLDart1.jpg" alt="" width="704" height="542" /></a></p>
<p>After a move higher into or around the $1,700 / ounce price level for gold, I believe that another leg lower will be quite likely.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Conclusion</strong></h3>
<p>Readers should be mindful that the 1<sup>st</sup> Quarter will end on March 30<sup>th</sup> for financial markets. Window dressing and portfolio painting are likely to occur next week. I would not be at all surprised to see the tape painted to the upside during the final week of March after this brief pullback that we witnessed on Thursday and Friday morning.</p>
<p>Money managers want to show off their returns while demonstrating ownership of key names that drove performance during the quarter such as AAPL. I expect the price action on Friday and the rest of next week to have relatively light volume and a bias to the upside.</p>
<p>Barring any major financial news or geopolitical event, I do not expect to see price action work below the 2011 highs in the near term. The possibility cannot be totally ruled out, but it would seemingly be a rare occurrence to see a major support level break down on the first back test attempt. We may see lower prices early next week, but if the 2011 highs hold the bulls remain in control in the short term.</p>
<p>The real question readers should ask themselves is if prices do extend higher and we reach my target resistance zone for the S&amp;P 500, will the retail crowd jump in and push prices higher, or will the banks be trading with each other as a major top forms? In coming days and weeks we should find out once and for all just who the real muppets truly are.</p>
<p>Over the past 5 months subscribers of my options trading newsletter have <strong>won 19 out of 20 trades</strong>. That’s a <strong>95% win rate</strong>,  pocketing <strong>294% in gains</strong> focusing only on low risk credit spread options strategies.</p>
<p><strong>If you are looking for a simple one trade per week trading style then be sure to join <a href="../../">www.OptionsTradingSignals.com</a> today with our 14 Day Trial</strong></p>
<p>Jw Jones<br />
<script type="text/javascript" src="http://forms.aweber.com/form/77/731905077.js"></script></p>
<p><span style="font-size: xx-small;">This material should not be considered investment advice. J.W. Jones is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this article or the OptionsTradingSignals.com website be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security or commodity contract. This material is not a solicitation for a trading approach to financial markets. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This information is for educational purposes only.</span></p>
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