WASHINGTON (AP) — A U.S. intelligence assessment completed shortly before the United States and Israel launched a war in Iran had determined that American military intervention was not likely to lead to regime change in the Islamic Republic, according to two people familiar with the finding.

The National Intelligence Council’s assessment in February concluded that neither limited airstrikes nor a larger, prolonged military campaign would be likely to result in a new government taking over in Iran, even if the current leadership was killed, according to the two people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the classified report.

The determination undercuts the administration’s assertion that it can complete its objectives in Iran relatively quickly, perhaps in a matter of weeks. The administration has asserted that it was not seeking regime change in Iran, even as President Donald Trump considers whom he would like to see lead the country.

The intelligence assessment concluded that no one powerful or unified opposition coalition was poised to take over in Iran if the leadership was killed, according to the people familiar with the report. It determined that Iran’s establishment would attempt to preserve continuity of power if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, the people said.

In line with the assessment’s findings, Iran’s leading clerics on Sunday chose a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to succeed his father, who was killed in the war’s opening salvo. The son is believed to hold views that are even more hardline than his father, and his selection is a strong sign of resistance from Iran’s leadership and an indication the government won’t step aside quickly.

The details of the assessment were reported earlier by The Washington Post and The New York Times.

Trump and other top administration leaders have given different justifications for the strikes that began on Feb. 28, saying they were necessary to set back Iran’s nuclear weapons program or to preempt an Iranian ballistic missile attack. While Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said the war is not aimed at regime change, Trump has said it’s something he wants to see.

A message seeking comment from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence was not immediately returned Monday. Director Tulsi Gabbard fired the council’s acting chairperson last year after the release of a declassified NIC memo that contradicted statements the Trump administration has used to justify deporting Venezuelan immigrants.

Trump, dating back to his first term, has been deeply skeptical of the U.S. intelligence community and has frequently dismissed its findings as politically motivated or part of a “deep state” effort to undermine his presidency.

Associated Press writers Aamer Madhani in Doral, Florida, and David Klepper in Washington contributed to this report.

He will be running as a Democrat in Florida’s 27th Congressional District, joining an already crowded race of Democrats seeking to unseat Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, a Cuban American who is in her third congressional term.

“I’ve spent years speaking out, exposing corruption, and warning about the dangers facing our democracy. Now it’s time to take that fight directly where it belongs — to Congress,” Parnas wrote in a post on X announcing his entry into the race.

Parnas, a Jewish Ukrainian-American businessman, rose to national prominence during the impeachment proceedings against Trump in 2019, when he turned on the president after helping him and Giuliani try to find damaging information in Ukraine about former President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter Biden. (The Senate acquitted Trump the following year.)

Parnas and his business partner, Igor Fruman, also cultivated ties with several Jewish figures and organizations, including the prominent Ukrainian rabbi Moshe Azman, who met with Giuliani in 2019. Parnas and Fruman met with Trump during the White House Hanukkah party in 2018.

“I’m running for Congress because we must stand up to Donald Trump and his lackeys like Maria Salazar,” Parnas’ campaign website reads. “I’ve seen the swamp from the inside. They know me in Washington, and I’m the last person they want with a seat in Congress and the power to call them before the people.”

Parnas is not the only Jewish figure from the former Soviet Union who played a role in the impeachment to be mounting a Democratic bid for national office in Florida. Alex Vindman, who testified before Congress as a National Security Council staffer and later left the military after facing alleged bullying from Trump and his allies, is running for Senate. His brother Eugene Vindman, who had been an ethics specialist at the White House, was elected to Congress in Virginia last year.

“I stepped up when my country needed a soldier, I reported corruption at the highest levels of government, and now I’m stepping up again to fight for Floridians,” wrote Alex Vindman in his campaign announcement in January.

In 2021, Parnas was convicted of federal campaign finance violations tied to a scheme to trade political contributions for support for a cannabis company and was sentenced to 20 months in prison. (Felons are barred from voting in Florida but not from running for office.)

His campaign did acknowledge his criminal past, saying it “included both professional successes and highly public challenges, including his appearance in a widely viewed documentary and a period of federal custody connected to past legal issues.”

Since finishing his term on home confinement in September 2023, Parnas has rebranded himself as a vocal critic of Trump on his podcast and in media appearances. His son, Aaron, is a Gen Z influencer who burst onto TikTok in 2022 as a pro-Ukraine voice and now commands an audience as a liberal news commentator.

In a campaign announcement on March 5, Parnas said he was running for Congress “with a focus on cleaning up Washington’s corruption, holding the powerful to account, strengthening affordability, expanding support for seniors, and improving our desperately broken immigration system.”

The Democratic primary for Parnas’ district will take place on Aug. 18. The general election will be held on Nov. 3.

For more info, go to JTA.org. 

LAS VEGAS (AP) — When his parents were about his age, they bought their first home. But for 27-year-old Brian Torres Suazo, that milestone feels like a distant dream, despite a secure job with union wages and down payment assistance.

Torres Suazo expects to continue sharing an apartment with roommates for the foreseeable future, kept on the sidelines of homeownership by stubbornly high costs, even in cities once known for their affordability, such as his native Las Vegas.

He’s not alone. In a restless electorate frustrated by high prices, the cost of housing stands out. Democrats are pushing to channel this anger into support for their quest to chip away at Republicans’ unified control of Washington, maintaining their focus on economic concerns even when war with Iran dominates the news.

Their path cuts through Nevada, a perennial swing state won by Republican Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election and now home to closely contested U.S. House races.

“I would be paying more — a lot more — in mortgage than I am for rent right now,” said Torres Suazo, a food runner on the Las Vegas Strip. Sometimes he feels like politicians aren’t listening to people like him. “It’d be nice if more people that knew what it’s like to work for a living could be in those rooms to make decisions,” he added.

Housing affordability isn’t just a coastal concern

In all directions from the Strip, tract homes with sharp-angled roofs and earthy paint schemes sprout from the desert by the dozen. Streets to nowhere snake through the dirt, ready for future homes. Wooden signs dot roadsides advertising homes from the $300,000s for a townhome to over $1 million for big houses in the most desirable suburban neighborhoods.

Housing costs have long been a potent political issue in pricey metropolitan areas like New York and San Francisco, but now the issue is popping up virtually everywhere.

During the coronavirus pandemic, white-collar workers newly empowered to work remotely cashed out their equity in high-priced cities and bid up prices across Sun Belt cities like Las Vegas, Phoenix, Dallas, and Charlotte, North Carolina. At the same time, near-zero interest rates drove a wave of refinancing that gave existing homeowners mortgage payments that now seem impossibly low.

Almost 40 million people visited Las Vegas last year, and gamblers wagered $14 billion at Clark County casinos, according to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. The steady flow of people and cash attracts dreamers and strivers with the promise of a good job and an affordable home.

The population of Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, grew 17% to 2.4 million between 2014 and 2024. The country as a whole grew 6% over that period.

“If you ask locals who grew up here, some of them feel that housing is out of reach for them,” said Las Vegas real estate agent Tony Clifford. “You talk to somebody from out of state – Northwest, West, California – we’re still so cheap compared to them.”

Home prices and mortgage rates have ticked down from historic highs in much of the country, and real estate agents say Las Vegas is now considered a buyer’s market. Houses are staying on the market longer, and more sellers are accepting discounted offers or offering concessions, such as covering closing costs. But monthly mortgage payments are still much higher than they were before the pandemic.

In Las Vegas, resale home prices rose 53% between December 2019 and the same month last year, according to the Case-Shiller index. The index tracks homes that have previously sold, excluding new construction, which makes up more than a quarter of the Las Vegas market.

In Las Vegas, the median home sale price rose 65% between the first quarter of 2020 and the same period last year, reaching $393,000, according to Federal Reserve data. It ticked down to $379,000 during the fourth quarter last year.

Nationally, 30-year mortgage rates followed a similar trend, bottoming out at 2.65% nationally in 2021 before peaking in 2023 at nearly 8%. They’ve settled around 6% this quarter.

Still, even with rates and prices stabilizing, they remain higher than they were before the pandemic. The median resale house at the prevailing interest rates with 20% down would cost $2,300 per month in December 2025, double the figure from December 2019.

Big investors are buying up houses

Large investors own about 11% of single-family home rentals in Las Vegas, according to the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution, compared with about 3% nationally.

They’re increasingly becoming bipartisan targets as they buy and rent out single-family homes, though economists generally discount the benefits of constraining them. Trump and Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford, the leading Democratic candidate for governor, are both among a growing cadre of officials calling for limits on corporate homeownership.

“People live in homes, not corporations,” Trump said in a social media post in January, calling for Congress to ban large institutional investors from buying houses. He’s also pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and proposed extending mortgage terms to 50 years, privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and allowing homebuyers to tap retirement or Education Savings Accounts for a down payment.

Ford’s housing plan, released last month, also calls for banning algorithmic pricing of rents, tackling regulatory barriers that block or slow new construction and seeking to unlock federal land for homebuilding. The federal government owns 84% of the land in Nevada.

Nevada’s Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, who is one of the most vulnerable incumbent state leaders in the country, has tried to address the problem, announcing last month that his administration has approved $64 million to boost a dozen housing development projects, mostly in the Las Vegas and Reno areas, along with assistance for homebuyers.

The midterms may hinge on affordability

Democrats are making affordability the central plank of their pitch to voters in November, arguing that Trump has failed in his campaign promise to bring prices back down despite Republican control of Congress. They believe anxiety over the cost of living has been a major factor in their victories in a series of off-year elections, including the races for governor of New Jersey and Virginia as well as special elections down the ballot.

Many Americans say Trump is focusing on the wrong priorities, according to multiple surveys, including a January AP-NORC poll, and they largely think Trump is neglecting the issue of costs at home.

Trump was reelected in large part because of economic concerns, but recent polling shows that the bulk of Americans aren’t seeing benefits from his policies yet, and most don’t think he’s paying enough attention to the issue.

A large share of registered voters see the economy as one of the top issues facing the country, and a recent New York Times poll found that about half of registered voters say Trump’s policies have made life for most Americans “less affordable.”

The issue will remain salient in November even as the Iran war raises interest in foreign policy, said Democratic strategist Paul Begala, one of the architects of Bill Clinton’s 1992 strategy that emphasized domestic economic concerns during a time of global upheaval from the first Gulf War and the fall of the Soviet Union.

“Trump’s refusal to raise the minimum wage, and his willingness to raise the cost of health care, electricity, hamburger, and now gas, is a two-edged sword that will cut down a large number of congressional Republicans,” Begala said.

Housing is a thorny political issue. Rooted homeowners like high prices that inflate their net worth, at least on paper, a reality that Trump has nodded to repeatedly this year, assuring homeowners he wants to keep their values high.

But those prices become handcuffs if they want to move on but are priced out of the bigger homes or better neighborhoods they’re eying.

Michele Niemeyer feels trapped in the condo she bought for more than $500,000 just off the Strip. The homeowners association fee just went up to $686 a month, straining her budget, and the value of her unit has plummeted. But the neighborhoods that were in her budget when she bought the condo are now out of reach.

“I want to move,” Niemeyer said. “I just don’t know where.”

WASHINGTON (AP) — As Congress responds to President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran, lawmakers who served on the front lines of Iraq and Afghanistan are making their voices heard in a war debate that has taken on intensely personal meaning.

Many admit mixed feelings, taking satisfaction in seeing vengeance taken on the leadership of an Iranian regime that has targeted U.S. service members for decades, yet fearful that another generation of soldiers could soon face the same combat experiences that they did.

“Do I take gratification? You know there’s the Marine side of me: Yeah, of course,” said Arizona Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego, whose company suffered some of the heaviest losses on the U.S. side during the Iraq War. “I know they killed a lot of American soldiers, American Marines. But do I also understand that I have a responsibility not to let my lust for revenge drive my country into another war?”

Experiences in the post 9/11 wars are also coloring the decisions of the Trump administration, given that top officials, including Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, were once deployed to Iraq.

Gallego, like others on Capitol Hill, leaned heavily on his firsthand experience of fighting in the wars after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks as he assessed the Iran conflict. Lawmakers wore bracelets etched with the names of friends killed in battle, told stories of coming under attack from Iran-backed militant groups and reflected on their own life-changing injuries suffered during combat.

Veteran lawmakers are wary of war

While the initial votes on Iran saw Congress divide mostly along party lines, with Republicans backing Trump’s actions and Democrats warning of an extended conflict, veterans in both parties share deep reservations about entering the conflict.

“As somebody who knows a lot of friends that didn’t come home and a lot of Gold Star families, that’s why the week before the attack, I was actually one of the ones that was talking about caution and why we needed to avoid at all costs getting into another long, drawn-out Middle Eastern war,” said Republican Rep. Eli Crane of Arizona, a former Navy SEAL who left college to enlist the week after the Sept. 11 attacks.

Crane said his concerns were partially assuaged by briefings from the Trump administration that indicated to him the president is not planning a drawn-out war. He voted against a war powers resolution that would have halted attacks on Iran unless Trump got congressional approval.

But Crane said wars are never straightforward. “I’ve been on military operations that did not go to plan many times, and so I understand the nature,” he said, adding that he was calling for the Trump administration to approach the conflict with “humility and caution.”

Gallego and other Democrats worried that it was too late for that approach. They paid tribute to the six U.S. military members who were killed in a drone strike in Kuwait and worried that there could soon be more American casualties.

“War is dirty, and mistakes happen,” Gallego said. The longer the conflict drags on, he added, the more chance there will be for U.S. military members to be killed. He said he saw that in Iraq when friends would be killed by seemingly random shots from enemy combatants.

Still, many Republicans argued that it was necessary to attack Iran to stop a regime that for decades has helped train and arm militant groups throughout the Middle East. Republican Rep. Brian Mast, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, led the debate on the House floor against the war powers resolution.

Mast, who served as an Army bomb disposal expert, now uses prosthetic legs after receiving catastrophic injuries from an improvised explosive device in Afghanistan. “Me especially, many of my other colleagues, no one wants to see our military go into combat or war,” he said.

Then he added, “But Iran’s terror, which has caused the deaths of thousands of Americans, it has to stop.”

Trying to push soldiers to forefront of war debate

Important questions loom for Congress as the conflict with Iran unfolds and spreads to other parts of the Middle East. The price for the operation is already likely running into the billions of dollars, likely forcing the Trump administration to soon seek billions in funding from Congress. The outbreak of war has also scrambled global alliances and the future of U.S. foreign policy.

Shadowing it all is the potential of another drawn-out conflict. Lawmakers said they owe it to their fallen comrades to ensure that doesn’t happen.

“To me, it’s to speak out. It’s to say another generation should not go fight in an open-ended, ill-conceived regime change war in the Middle East,” said Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, his hand moving to a bracelet etched with the names of friends who were killed during his two Army combat tours in Iraq.

Others remembered how frustrated they became with Washington during their service, especially as soldiers tried to fight with insufficiently armored vehicles and not enough troops.

“I know what it was like to be on the very end of the receiving line of the decisions made in Washington,” said Democratic Rep. Jason Crow, who entered the Army as a private before being promoted to a captain and deployed to both Iraq and Afghanistan.

Crow said that front-line soldiers often suffered “because people stopped asking tough questions. People stopped being held accountable. Congress stopped voting on it.”

Another veteran, Democratic Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, said that was one of the reasons she sought a congressional seat in the first place. As a Blackhawk helicopter pilot with the Illinois National Guard, Duckworth lost her legs when her helicopter was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade in Iraq.

“I ran for Congress so that when the drums of war started beating once again, I’d be in a position to make sure that our elected officials fully considered the true cost of the war,” she said. “Not just in dollars and cents but in human lives.”

Anthropic is suing the Trump administration for what it calls an “unlawful campaign of retaliation” against the artificial intelligence company over its refusal to allow unrestricted military use of its technology.

Anthropic asked federal courts on Monday to reverse the Pentagon’s decision last week to designate the artificial intelligence company a “ supply chain risk.” The company also seeks to undo President Donald Trump’s order directing federal employees to stop using its AI chatbot Claude.

The legal challenge intensifies an unusually public dispute over how AI can be used in warfare and mass surveillance — one that has also dragged in Anthropic’s tech industry rivals, particularly OpenAI, which made its own deal to work with the Pentagon just hours after the government punished Anthropic for its stance.

Anthropic filed two separate lawsuits Monday, one in California federal court and another in the federal appeals court in Washington, D.C., each challenging different aspects of the government’s actions against the company.

“These actions are unprecedented and unlawful,” Anthropic’s lawsuit says. “The Constitution does not allow the government to wield its enormous power to punish a company for its protected speech. No federal statute authorizes the actions taken here. Anthropic turns to the judiciary as a last resort to vindicate its rights and halt the Executive’s unlawful campaign of retaliation.”

The Defense Department declined to comment Monday, citing a policy of not commenting on matters in litigation.

Anthropic said it sought to restrict its technology from being used for two high-level usages: mass surveillance of Americans and fully autonomous weapons. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other officials publicly insisted the company must accept “all lawful” uses of Claude and threatened punishment if Anthropic did not comply.

Designating the company a supply chain risk cuts off Anthropic’s defense work using an authority that was designed to prevent foreign adversaries from harming national security systems. It was the first time the federal government is known to have used the designation against a U.S. company.

President Donald Trump also said he would order federal agencies to stop using Claude, though he gave the Pentagon six months to phase out a product that’s deeply embedded in classified military systems, including those used in the Iran war.

Anthropic’s lawsuit also names other federal agencies, including the departments of Treasury and State, after officials ordered employees to stop using Anthropic’s services.

Even as it fights the Pentagon’s actions, Anthropic has sought to convince businesses and other government agencies that the Trump administration’s penalty is a narrow one that only affects military contractors when they are using Claude in work for the Department of Defense.

Making that distinction clear is crucial for the privately held Anthropic because most of its projected $14 billion in revenue this year comes from businesses and government agencies that are using Claude for computer coding and other tasks. More than 500 customers are paying Anthropic at least $1 million annually for Claude, according to a recent investment announcement valued the company at $380 billion.

Anthropic said in a statement Monday that “seeking judicial review does not change our longstanding commitment to harnessing AI to protect our national security, but this is a necessary step to protect our business, our customers, and our partners.”

Sunday’s attack brought the death toll to at least 157 people since the Trump administration began targeting those it calls “narcoterrorists” in small vessels in early September.

As with most of the military’s statements on the more than 40 known strikes in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea, U.S. Southern Command said it targeted alleged drug traffickers along known smuggling routes. The military did not provide evidence that the vessel was ferrying drugs. It posted a video on X that showed a small boat being blown up as it floated on the water.

President Donald Trump has said the U.S. is in “armed conflict” with cartels in Latin America and has justified the attacks as a necessary escalation to stem the flow of drugs into the United States. But his administration has offered little evidence to support its claims of killing “narcoterrorists.”

In a meeting with Latin American leaders on Saturday, Trump encouraged them to join the U.S. in taking military action against drug-trafficking cartels and transnational gangs, which he said pose an “unacceptable threat” to the region’s national security.

To that end, Ecuador and the United States conducted military operations this past week against organized crime groups in the South American country.

With Saturday’s gathering, Trump aimed to demonstrate that he remains committed to focusing U.S. foreign policy on the Western Hemisphere, even while waging a war on Iran that has had repercussions across the Middle East.

Critics have questioned the overall legality of the boat strikes as well as their effectiveness, in part because the fentanyl behind many fatal overdoses is typically trafficked to the U.S. over land from Mexico, where it is produced with chemicals imported from China and India.

The boat strikes also drew intense criticism following the revelation that the military killed survivors of the very first boat attack with a follow-up strike. The Trump administration and many Republican lawmakers said it was legal and necessary, while Democratic lawmakers and legal experts said the killings were murder, if not a war crime.

NEW DELHI (AP) — The United States and Iran have offered sharply different accounts of the sinking of an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean last week, with Washington rejecting Tehran’s claim the vessel was unarmed and Iranian officials insisting it was operating in a noncombat role.

The United States Indo-Pacific Command on Sunday rejected Iran’s claim that the warship IRIS Dena was unarmed when it was sunk in a submarine attack in international waters off Sri Lanka on March 4. In a statement on X, INDOPACOM called Iran’s assertion that the vessel was unarmed “false.”

The response followed strong objections from Tehran, which has repeatedly characterized the warship as defenseless, saying it was returning home after taking part in a naval exercise.

An Indian navy official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to brief the media, said the Iranian vessel was not “entirely unarmed” and had taken part in drills alongside other countries’ warships.

Some experts have, however, suggested that visiting ships at such events typically do not carry a full combat load of live munitions unless scheduled for live-fire drills. They say even during the sea phase of exercises, ships generally carry only tightly-controlled ammunition limited to specific drills.

Rahul Bedi, an independent defense analyst based in India, said the vessel may have used some limited non-offensive ammunition during the naval exercises, but protocol requires “the participating platforms to be unarmed.”

“The precondition of participating in such a parade, or such a ceremony, is that it (the vessel) comes unarmed. That is the precondition of the Indian Navy and it’s a precondition of most navies when they hold such similar sort of fleet reviews,” Bedi said.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh said Friday that the warship, sunk by a U.S. torpedo, had not been carrying weapons and accused Washington of targeting a ceremonial vessel.

“That vessel was by invitation of our Indian friends, attending an international exercise. It was ceremonial. It was unloaded. It was unarmed,” he told reporters in New Delhi.

The IRIS Dena was sunk on March 4 in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka after being struck by a torpedo fired from a U.S. submarine, according to American and Iranian officials. The Sri Lankan navy rescued 32 sailors and recovered 87 bodies.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described the IRIS Dena as a “prize ship” and said it “died a quiet death.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the attack as “an atrocity at sea” and stressed that it had been “a guest of India’s Navy.”

Disputes over whether the vessel was armed have intensified tensions over the incident, which occurred as it was returning from multinational naval exercises in India, and raised questions about whether it was operating in a noncombat role when it was attacked.

India’s defense ministry said in a statement after the exercises that “live firings as part of surface gun shoots, as well as anti-air firings, were also undertaken” by participating vessels.

The warship’s sinking highlighted how the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is spreading beyond the Middle East.

Two other Iranian vessels — the IRIS Bushehr and IRIS Lavan — are docked in Sri Lanka and India after seeking assistance from the two countries.

Associated Press writer Aijaz Hussain in Srinagar, India, contributed to this report.

NEW YORK (AP) — A device thrown by a counterprotester at an anti-Islam demonstration in New York City on Saturday was confirmed to be an improvised explosive, according to a preliminary police analysis.

Two people were in custody for their alleged role in the confrontation, which unfolded during a “Stop the Islamic Takeover of New York City” event led by the far right activist Jake Lang outside the Manhattan residence of Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

The sparsely attended event drew a far larger group of counterdemonstrators, including one person who tossed a smoking object containing nuts, bolts, screws and a “hobby fuse” into the crowd, police said.

In a social media post Sunday, Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch said the department’s bomb squad determined the object wasn’t a hoax device or smoke bomb, but an “improvised explosive device that could have caused serious injury or death.”

The device extinguished itself steps from police officers, Tisch noted. The same person who threw it then received a second device from another counterprotester, which was dropped and did not appear to ignite, the commissioner said.

Charges against the two counterprotesters were still pending. Tisch said police were working with federal prosecutors and the FBI on the case.

“Violence at a protest is never acceptable,” Mamdani said in a statement Sunday. “The attempt to use an explosive device and hurt others is not only criminal, it is reprehensible and the antithesis of who we are.”

A person associated with Lang’s protest was also arrested and charged with reckless endangerment, assault and unlawful possession of a noxious matter after allegedly macing counterprotesters, police said.

Lang was previously charged with assaulting an officer with a baseball bat, civil disorder and other crimes before receiving clemency as part of President Donald Trump’s sweeping act of clemency for Jan. 6 defendants last year. He recently announced that he is running for U.S. Senate in Florida.

Earlier this year, Lang organized a rally in Minneapolis in support of Trump’s immigration crackdown, drawing an angry crowd of counterprotesters that quickly chased him away.

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump promised that 2026 would be a bumper year for economic growth, but instead it has kicked off with job losses, rising gasoline prices and more uncertainty about America’s future.

In his State of the Union address less than two weeks ago, the Republican president confidently told the country: “The roaring economy is roaring like never before.” The latest batch of data on jobs, pump prices and the stock market suggests that Trump’s roar has started to sound far more like a whimper.

There is a gap between the boom that Trump has predicted and the volatile results he has produced — one that could set the tone in this year’s midterm elections as he tries to defend his party’s majorities in the House and Senate. With Trump’s tariffs drama ongoing, the war in Iran has suddenly created inflationary concerns regarding oil and natural gas. To the White House, it is still early in the year and stronger growth is coming.

No signs of a jobs boom

“WOW! The Golden Age of America is upon us!!!” Trump posted on social media Feb. 11 after the monthly jobs report showed gains of 130,000 jobs in January.

Since then, the job market has evaporated in worrisome ways.

Friday’s employment report showed job losses of 92,000 in February. The January and December figures were revised downward, with December swinging to a loss of 17,000 jobs. Monthly data can be rocky, but a trend has emerged that shows an enduring weakness. Without the health care sector, the economy would have shed roughly 202,000 jobs since Trump became president in January 2025. Still, his administration notes that construction job gains outside of the housing sector point to future hiring growth.

Trump often brags that jobs are going to people born in the United States, rather than to immigrants. But the latest report punctured some of that argument.

The unemployment rate for people born in the U.S. has climbed over the past 12 months to 4.7% from 4.4%. This means a greater share of the people who Trump said would get jobs because of his immigration crackdown are, in fact, searching for work.

Prices at the pump are going up

“Slashing energy costs is among the most important actions we can take to bring down prices for American consumers,” Trump said in a February speech in Texas just before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. “Because when you cut the cost of energy, you really cut — you just cut the cost of everything.”

The president has repeatedly told Americans that keeping gas costs low would be key to defeating inflation. He has talked up the decline, citing figures that were far below the national average to assure the public that driving was getting cheaper.

But the strikes against Iran that began Feb. 28 have, for the moment, crushed that narrative. Prices at the pump have jumped 19% over the past month to a national average of $3.45, according to AAA. The investment bank Goldman Sachs warned in an analyst note that, if higher oil prices persist, inflation could rise from its 2.4% reading in January to 3% by the end of the year.

The administration is banking on plans to contain any energy price increases, essentially betting that either the conflict will end shortly or the administration can succeed in getting more tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump advisers on Sunday sought to assure anxious Americans that surging fuel prices are a short-term problem.

“We never know exactly the time frame of this,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNN’s “State of the Union. “But in the worst case, this is a weeks, this is not a months thing.”

Stocks are off their highs

“You know, we set the all-time record in history with the Dow going to 50,000,” Trump said Thursday at the White House.

This frequently repeated talking point has grown stale. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of Trump’s preferred measures of success, has dropped 5% over the past month. Stocks are up during his presidency, just as they were previously when Democrat Joe Biden was president. The recent decline could be reversed if the war with Iran ends and companies see solid profits over the next year and beyond. The recent dip, however, should be a warning sign as the administration has stressed the importance of more people investing in the stock market through vehicles such as “Trump accounts” for children.

The stock market has become a barometer of how people feel about the economy, with stock investors tending to have more confidence and those without money in the markets being more pessimistic.

Joanna Hsu, the director of the University of Michigan’s surveys of consumers, noted that in February a “sizable” increase in sentiment among people owning stocks “was fully offset by a decline among consumers without stock holdings.”

Productivity is up, but workers aren’t benefiting

Trump can point to a win in that the economy has become more productive — generating more value for each hour of work. That is a positive sign for long-term growth in the U.S. and a reflection of its strong tech sector.

Business sector labor productivity climbed 2.8% in the fourth quarter of last year, the Labor Department reported Thursday. But the challenge is that the gains might not be spread to workers in the form of higher pay as labor’s share of income last year fell to the lowest level on record, noted Mike Konczal, senior director of policy and research at the Economic Security Project, a nonprofit aligned with liberal economic issues.

Economy grew at a faster pace under Biden

“Under the Biden administration, America was plagued by the nightmare of stagflation, meaning low growth and high inflation — a recipe for misery, failure and decline,” Trump said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January.

The scoreboard tells a far different story, one that makes Biden’s track record in 2024 look better than Trump’s performance last year. The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace during Biden’s last year, compared with 2.2% under Trump in 2025.

As for inflation, the primary measure used by the Federal Reserve is the personal consumption expenditures price index. It was 2.6% in both 2024 and 2025.

Trump has staked his economic argument on doing better than Biden. But while he has avoided the inflation spikes that haunted Biden’s presidency, he has not delivered stronger growth or more hiring.

The University of North Florida poll found likely midterm election voters were split evenly, with 48% approval and 49% disapproval of the Trump administration’s handling of immigration, one of his signature policy priorities.

The overall numbers somewhat obscure the depth of feeling on both sides; 33% of Florida voters strongly approve of the way the Trump administration is handling immigration and 41% strongly disapprove.

The views of Florida’s no party affiliation/independent voters — a critical voting bloc that can swing elections — are striking. The poll found 60% of no party independents disapprove (49% strongly) and 36% approve (20% strongly) of the Trump administration’s handling of immigration.

Sean Freeder, a University of North Florida political scientist and director of the Public Opinion Research Lab, that is a political warning sign for Republicans as the midterm elections approach.

“If I was a Republican right now, being 25 points underwater (among NPA/independents) on Trump’s signature issue of immigration … it would make me nervous,” he said.

The poll conducted by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab was released Wednesday, the day before Trump fired the chief implementer of his administration’s immigration policy, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.

Almost none of the Floridians surveyed had no opinion on the question of Trump administration immigration policy. Just 3% said they didn’t know or didn’t answer.

The poll showed significant differences between Democrats and Republicans and large gender and age gaps:

— Among Democrats, 80% strongly disapproved and 9% somewhat disapproved for a total disapproval of 89%.

— Among Republicans, 62% strongly approved and 22% somewhat approved for a total of 83%. (Because of rounding, total percentages are sometimes different than the sum of their parts.)

— Among men, 58% approved of Trump’s handling of immigration. Among women, 57% disapproved.

— Among voters 55 and older, 54% approved of the administration’s handling of immigration; 69% of voters 18-34 disapproved.

Trump effect

The net negative view of Trump administration immigration policy was 1 percentage point. Disapproval of the way Immigrations and Customs Enforcement is handling its job is higher — 13 percentage points.

For all voters surveyed, 55% said they disapproved of the way ICE is handling its job and 42% disapproved. As with the overall immigration policy question, just 3% said they didn’t know or didn’t answer.

Strong disapproval (48%) was far greater than strong approval (27%).

ICE has been receiving intense blowback for the way it has rounded up and treated people who are, or are suspected of, being in the U.S. illegally, and the turmoil that accompanied massive immigration enforcement this year in Minnesota.

Freeder said the higher disapproval for the ICE question could be because the immigration policy question included Trump’s name and the ICE question didn’t.

Freeder said that may have meant some answers to that question reflected respondents’ overall views of Trump. Supporting that possibility, he said, is that the views of the Trump administration’s handling of immigration (48% approve; 49% disapprove) closely tracked voters’ overall views of Trump (45% favorable; 48% unfavorable.)

“When we ask people about Trump’s handling of immigration, it’s pretty similar to Trump’s numbers,” Freeder said.

“When we ask people (about ICE) without using Trump’s name, all of a sudden we go down to a negative 15.” He said people, including Republicans, are more critical “when Trump’s name is not on the table.”

ICE details

Women’s assessments of ICE were overwhelmingly negative, with 33% approving and 62% disapproving — which is negative 29 points. Men approved of ICE 53% to 45% — a net positive of 8 percentage points.

Younger voters, age 18-34, 76% disapproved of ICE. For voters 55 and older, 49% disapproved.

Democratic disapproval was overwhelming. Republican approval was extremely high, but not as lopsided as Democratic disapproval.

Among Democrats 92% disapproved, including 88% who strongly disapproved.

Among Republicans, 78% approved, including 54% who strongly approved. Republican disapproval stood at 19%, including 14% who strongly disapproved.

No party affiliation/independent voters were also opposed to the way ICE does its job.

Among NPA/independent voters, 69% disapproved, 57% strongly. About a quarter of independents approved, split between somewhat and strong approval.

Driver’s licenses

With nationwide attention on immigration enforcement, elected officials who favor cracking down have advocated for more restrictions on drivers, including in Florida.

The poll found broad support — 61%-37% — for a policy rolled out last month that requires people to take all Florida driver’s exams for knowledge and skills in English. Previously exams could be given in other languages.

The policy change was implemented by the state Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles, run by an executive director picked by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Strongest support for the policy comes from Republicans (84%). No party affiliation/independent voters support the idea 60%-40%. Among Democrats, 66% are opposed.

Men are far more supportive (70%) of the policy than women (54%).

There is also a significant age gap. Voters 18-34 are split, 48% in support and 49% opposed. Voters 55 and older support the policy, 65%-33%.

Florida poll finds widespread affordability worries. Most voters ready to cut property taxes.

Overall concern

Immigration enforcement, and control of U.S. borders, was a pillar of Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, and helped convince many people to vote for him.

It’s not a top-tier issue in early 2026.

Affordability was cited as the top issue by 50% of people surveyed. Immigration was cited as the most important problem facing Florida today by just 8% of Florida voters, in third place behind political division and polarization at 12%.

Fine print

The poll of 786 likely Florida midterm election voters was conducted by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab.

The poll, which used live callers for interviews by phone and online surveys distributed by text message, was conducted Feb. 21 through March 2.

The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points for the full survey.

However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans and Democrats, men and women, and younger and older voters, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

Political writer Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.