I completed my PDC in January ‘09 with Geoff at Zaytuna farm, along with a lovely range of fellow students from the far reaches of the globe. I sincerely hope they also post stories to share – come on guys, it’s time to be brave!

I returned to my home in south western Victoria (Australia) a changed woman, and I sometimes wonder what it was I use to believe in before I was transformed.

So returning home with fresh eyes for the world, I have set about transforming everything that I can cast my Permaculture web over. So hopefully I will have more than one story to tell!

My climate is cool and almost coastal ( I am 15km inland). There is a prevailing south westerly winter wind blowing fresh from Antarctica, and almost no frost. Our rain is mostly in winter and spring; our summers reach the mid thirties but usually for no more than a day or so before dropping. However last summer (Jan/Feb) set a new precedent; our hottest consecutive days, high thirties to low forties for four to five days in a row, a significant and dangerous change for us.

With a new thirst for experimentation, I have been doing informal trials and generally playing around in the garden, all the while observing and forming new questions.

So what is the story with the apricots and the weeds?

My three year old apricot trees were growing alright, considering they were planted traditionally, in an area of lawn, had never been watered, and had generally been pest free, besides a nibble from a curious horse in their first year. However I was keen to see what improvements I could make to the soil for fertility and water infiltration, and I wanted to practice increasing soil carbon on a home scale.

Firstly I sheet mulched the area with large quantities of fruit and vegetable waste from the local supermarket (diverting it from producing methane in land fill). I covered it over with all our cardboard and shredded paper waste, and then I topped that off with pea straw and old rotting grass hay.

I built up a few double reach beds in between the trees with compost and planted up some broccoli and cauliflower seedlings. I also broadcast the entire area with a winter cover crop seed mix containing oats, barley, turnips, radish, broad beans and kale to name a few.

I stood back and let nature take its course.

What I have experienced is the most beautiful and magnificent act of nature I could have dreamt for.

I harvested the broccoli and cauliflower heads as they matured then left the stems to continue growing. The pea straw grew peas and the rotting hay grew every grass and weed species available and imaginable.
The veggie waste produced a few surprises, peach and avocado seedlings (great for understock), garlic and onions. The entire site has an understory of potatoes, soon to be uncovered and enjoyed.

Many of the plants have grown exponentially in the past few weeks as they bolt to seed, radish and turnips at two metres, and hemlock (a local weed) heading on to three metres.

This abundant growth is building delicious topsoil and hosting an enormous quantity of soil biota.
Rainfall infiltration has been so advantaged that I have not experienced the usual winter run off from my land, despite our best winter rainfall in five years.

The brassica flowers are full of bees, all contributing to honey production and the whole place is alive with predatory wasps. Lots of the small local bird varieties such as willy-wagtails and fairy wrens reside close by, all consuming, producing and living contentedly in the abundant surroundings. (We should all be so lucky.)

Snails evidence a duck deficiency

The arrival of a warmer burst of weather is heralding the next succession of production. Tomato and pumpkin seeds from the veggie waste have been patiently waiting for their turn to appear. The drying off of the broad beans, barley and oats means its time for the chooks to get lucky. The seed-eating birds will collect the majority of the fallen ones but hopefully some will escape to begin the process again next autumn.

I suspect the nearby rose bushes are hiding and protecting a few birds’ nests hidden safely away from the neighborhood feral cats.

The apricots have set enough fruit to support a decent taste test and maybe a few jars of jam. But look out next season!

I will begin to chop and drop to favor the next round of production and I imagine I will find some other unexpected treasure amongst the bounty.

The International Energy Agency, who annually produce their World Energy Outlook (WEO) report, have just done so yet again – you can read their executive summary of the 2009 edition here (PDF).

The report, for the uninitiated, looks at expected supplies in oil, coal and natural gas, as well as demand for the same – making projections up to 2030. It is, or should be, significant in that it paints a picture of what life might be like in the next few years – either steady flows of fossil fuel energy to maintain the industrial/consumer status quo (and increase CO2 levels in tandem), or, alternatively, a potentially society-upturning peaking of energy supplies; oil in particular.

The IEA was traditionally always famously optimistic about supply, to the point where many disregarded the reports as merely an industry-sponsored publication to serve industry interests. It’s only been over the last couple of years that their reports have appeared to even entertain the possibility that fossil fuels might in fact be finite. Their predictions of supply were always in parallel with their predictions of demand.

Last year, however, (through a "field-by-field analysis of production trends at 800 of the world’s largest oilfields") they shocked the world with the announcement that we need to invest…. wait for it…. over 26 trillion dollars over the next 22 years in order to maintain present or just above present rates (with around half of that investment for finding and developing fields that potentially do not exist).

Anyway, the new report echoes last year’s figures, that – with enough investment – we’ll be able to increase production from our present 83 million barrels of oil per day (worldwide) to 105 million. Although the 105 million projection is a marked decrease from previous years, not a few believe this figure is also still wholly unrealistic, and some think it is entirely manufactured.

Significantly, some of those doubting Thomases appear to reside within the IEA itself:

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

Other sites discussing this issue in case you’re a readerholic: CNN (bless them for taking time out from their usual drivel, …although…): Jeremy Leggett, CEO of Solar Century and a member of the taskforce, told CNN that the allegations from within the IEA were particularly worrying, but not surprising. "I increasingly think there are parallels between [the oil industry] and what we now know of the banking culture," Leggett told CNN. "It’s the systematic, cultural burial of risk. Investment bankers did it with complex derivatives. And I very firmly believe that the oil and gas industry culturally does the same thing with the depletion of reserves. Time – who start with the same concern I’ve been voicing for a while now: Here’s the bad news about the global recession’s potentially coming to an end: the recovery could spark a massive energy crisis with increased demand for fossil fuels from China and other developing countries, tighter oil supplies and skyrocketing oil prices. And this is just in the near future.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation’s latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow – which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies.

In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.

[...]

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the ‘peak oil’ zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added. – Guardian

I don’t have time for a big review right now, but a couple of quick observations from me:

1) Last year’s WEO report, made after analysing over 800 of the world’s largest fields, provided the energy forecast below (figure 1). Note that any increase in supply beyond 2008/2009 is only through: developing new fields, finding and developing new fields, additional EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) – which means getting desperate and pushing CO2 or water into older fields to create more pressure – non-conventional oil (think tar sands), and natural gas liquids. What all that adds up to is everything above the bottom dark blue segment represents a significant amount of investment. Take just the red section below – the oil fields that may not exist – out of the picture, and recalibrate the projection again to see what I mean. You suddenly have a flatline up to 2030. Start to take other colours out, and so on.

Figure 1: From the World Energy Outlook 2008 report

This year’s version, in different format, says similar.

From the World Energy Outlook 2009 report

Take the light blue section out, and the drop is abrupt.

2) In 2009 world demand for oil has shrunk for the first time in history, and the industry is feeling the pinch. The world is broke. No, more – the world is swimming in debt. Over the last year, since the recession hit, investment in developing new oil fields, and even in maintaining existing fields, has been cut across much of the industry. If the economy does begin to pick up speed, the potential lag time in oil-industry response could quickly translate to shortages. If demand even hints at going above supply, 2008-style price spikes are highly likely – particularly if stock markets are unregulated. This would have enormous consequences – potentially sending new economic growth into a tail spin. You may begin to understand why I recently wrote the post ‘Heading into a Perpetual Recession‘.

3) If prices begin a rapid incline yet again, and peak oil becomes even more obvious, investment will return. Some of the money, rather than continue to chase hard-to-get oil, will inevitably go into cheaper fuel alternatives – dirty technologies like coal-to-liquids. Although highly polluting, it is perhaps the fastest, easiest way to replace transport fuels. The low hanging fruit of easy, sweet crude, also happens to be the cleanest in comparison to these alternatives.

4) As well as calling for significant investment in oil and gas, the WEO report is also calling for sizeable funding of renewable technology to mitigate climate change – and doesn’t pull any punches in its assessment of our climate woes. Yet, its call to invest in both quarters is a good example of the quandary of politicians and economists, who are trying to figure out how to grow the economy whilst shrinking its consequences. Asking the world to invest significantly in oil production, so we can continue our past growth curve, and continue polluting, while simultaneously asking us to invest heavily in renewables, to reduce our impact on the planet, is like asking a man to lift a bucket off the ground – while asking him to get inside it at the same time. And, given we’re dead broke, you could stretch the analogy a little further by making the man armless.

5) The report states:

As conventional oil production in countries not belonging to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) peaks around 2010, most of the increase in output would need to come from OPEC countries, which hold the bulk of remaining recoverable conventional oil resources.

This equates to increased political tensions….

Final note:

Whether geologically, or economically, or both, there’s a very real chance we’ve already peaked – that we’ll never pump more than 83-85 million barrels of oil per day out of the ground. We may also begin a rather steep drop in production, particularly in the most ‘developed’ countries, who are all experiencing increasing decline rates. If so, buckle up. We could be in for an interesting ride. Apocalypse might be better spelt Petrocollapse?

I’ll leave you with one more quote. Earlier this year, Stephen Harvey, Director of the Oil and Gas Office at the Energy Information Administration (EIA – not to be confused with IEA) of the US Department of Energy wrote:

There are many compelling arguments regarding the increased difficulty in reaching oil reserves which may well result in a future view of historical production that looks sort of like a bell curve. And, it is quite plausible that the peak of that curve is around now. – EnergyBulletin.net

Inter-row Eucalyptus saligna (Sydney blue gum) & Casuarina cunninghamiana (river she oak) planted in 2000

I recently had opportunity to visit a Permaculture site called ‘Dalpura Farm’, near Geelong, outside of Melbourne. Although (or perhaps, because) designed by Darren Doherty, the very well known Permaculture designer and teacher, it was dramatically different than your average Permaculture site. Rather than an urban edible garden, or a fruit-/veg-/livestock-oriented rural block, this 140-acre property was all about trees.

It’s an experimental agro-forestry project, aimed at finding the best way to produce a range of commercial products and ecological benefits from trees, with timber production being the primary focus.

I contacted Darren, the designer, and George Howson, the owner of the property, to see what it was all about.

Craig Mackintosh: With Peak Oil issues right at our door, sales of seeds and potting mix are going through the roof. But, with the ‘Dalpura Farm’ project, you seem to be saying we should be thinking beyond just cauliflowers and cabbages. Wood, prior to the industrial revolution, was always the main source of fuel for humanity. Is any of the motivation behind this particular project connected with future resource constraints?

Darren Doherty: Well the focus at Dalpura was from the start influenced by the fact that the developer was an absentee landholder and we had tenants in until just a few years ago…. They showed only a little interest in what we were trying to ultimately achieve so you could say we started at the back gate and have been working towards the back door ever since. Our main priorities were to develop a site that could achieve multiple outcomes, with a particular focus on valuable managed timber plantations and silvopastoral systems following Keyline™ Design methods, where we treat the whole site as one big water catchment rather than concentrate on using technologies such as swales as many in Permaculture do.

The soil is the cheapest place to store water and we have lifted the SOC level on these very poor, laterised Tertiary Gravels (the region’s largest gravel mine is right next door and Dalpura shares its geology!) from about 2% when we started up to around 6%+ which has made a huge difference to the performance of the various plantings on the site, and therefore the water & mineral cycles have improved radically over the whole site where we have done work. This is despite the fact that rainfall has been very much less than average over the period since we started back in 1996.

The world is short of topsoil and that is the foundation of everything and as I like to say, ‘…..we have to be Blue, before we can be Green or Black….’, meaning we need water (blue) before we can photosynthesis (green) and therefore build carbon (black). I have never been one who has focused on resource constraints as such, rather we have always developed low cost solid state systems that would ultimate yield in any situation.

New revegetation planting (2009)

George Howson: While the primary goal of the forestry plantations is to produce high quality, feature grade timber for furniture and joinery, the systems are designed with multiple products and purposes in mind. I had used a number of native Australian timbers as features in a range of energy-efficient, inner-city housing developments in Geelong in the early 1990s, and was keen to grow the timbers myself and promote their attributes. At the time I formulated the brief, and Darren designed the initial systems, the aesthetic qualities of Australian timbers were generally under-appreciated, and I saw an opportunity to do something about it on a very small scale. I was also predicating the future economic and other values on the likelihood that timber supplies from native forests will be progressively locked up, and that small scale farm forestry is a better way forward in both social and ecological terms.

Other intended products from our trees at ‘Dalpura Farm’ include harvesting seed; fire-wood; poles from thinnings for orchard fencing and garden structures; and the possible production of shiitake mushrooms on farm-grown logs. Stock fodder systems are also a core element in future planning, with integrated grazing along Holisitic Management lines an enterprise currently being explored.

Wetland Crossing Dam, a concept developed by Darren Doherty as an alternative to
conventional concrete culvert/end wall. Nothing planted: all self-established
vegetation. Built by Paul ‘Ringo’ Kean in 1.5hours with a D5 in 2007. Acacia
implexa (lightwood) & Eucalyptus leucoxylon (yellow gum) complex (1998)
in background.

CM: I noticed the trees were planted in swale-type formations, except angling up from valleys onto the slopes rather than running on contour. Could you give us more details on this, and tell us the reasoning behind such a design?

DD: There is not a swale on the property. I have never been much for swales in this part of the world or many other places where I can use the geometry of Keyline™. I understand and use swales where I feel they are an appropriate patterning, but find that in plantation (or orchard) settings the use of the geometry of topographic contours is awfully problematic due in large part to the lack of equidistance between contours, leaving turns to often occur within the planting itself: this is a pain to say the least when it comes to management operations.

The lack of equidistance of contours also gives you the following issues:

1. Can’t fit as many units into a given area
2. Can’t obtain tree offset patterning so important in tree system design
3. Much more difficult to set out the design: with Keyline™ geometry you mark one line and then do a series of 90° offsets off of the 1st line.
4. The drift of runoff (on the rare occasion it now happens) towards the ridge in our system at Dalpura is an application of the Keyline™ geometry. The rationale behind the mounds themselves were to increase the internal drainage characteristics of the soils together with water harvesting. These mounds were constructed using two opposing discs attached to the Yeomans Keyline™ Plow which was subsoiling at the same time.

Sometimes I sense that people use & recommend contours because it is an easily transferred technology, whereas Keyline™ geometry requires a much more detailed understanding of topography that is easily and very often confused. Our application of Keyline™ geometry over the years has become very complex down the point where we are able to create completely symmetrical layouts whilst working on curves. This is difficult to do and requires the following:

1. Electronic topographic survey (ie. Total Station) of the landscape
2. CAD layout planning
3. Set-out of the site using Total Station to accurately reflect the CAD design on the landscape

This might sound like a long-winded process to many, but to us it is about optimisation of all of the outcomes we are after. Namely:

1. Client Satisfaction
2. Landscape Harmony
3. Water-use Efficiency
4. System Performance
5. Ease of Management & Harvest

The use of this whole process with Dalpura’s 1998 planting was made even more important by our ground preparation contractors clearing all the scant layer of topsoil in what was an executive decision that was quite disastrous when your soil is basically gravel! So we really started behind the 8 ball when we took the job back from these contractors. This only vindicates the whole process that we ultimately undertook.

Inter-row Acacia dealbata (silver wattle), and regrowth from thinning (foreground)
with Eucalyptus microcarpa (grey box) planted in 1998. Cam Wilson centre.

GH: All the various forestry systems across Dalpura Farm are planted in tree mounds aligned on ‘Keyline pattern contours’, which direct the natural water flow from the valleys or drainage lines out across the slope towards the crest, as per the pioneering work of P.A. Yeomans. The mounds act as mini-swales, intercepting and spreading the rainfall across the site, helping to distribute it more evenly to all the trees. The gutters on the sides of the tree mounds also act as temporary catchments following heavy rainfall events, increasing the efficacy of interception and storage of run-off, & retaining moisture in the landscape for longer.

CM: You had quite a variety of tree species planted. Can you tell us about some of them, and about any particular relationships going on there. And in what other ways does Dalpura differ from your average, conventional forestry project?

DD: There are about 120 species that have been planted at Dalpura overall. In the 1998-2002 plantings we installed around 20,000 trees and about 20 species (I have detailed records at home but am in Mexico at the moment so referring to memory!). Following 2002 we then started to run out of room and we wanted to plant more trees as per our original layout plan of 1996/7, so started to plant out the pastoral areas of the property. These plantings included more non-timber product species along with timber species; plantings that were a Permaculture/Keyline™ spin on J. Russell Smith’s 1927 classic, ‘Tree Crops: A Permanent Agriculture’. I call this kind of thing Keyline™ Mark IV as neither Yeomans Snr. nor Jnrs. ever applied Keyline™ in this way to my knowledge.

The project differs obviously from the industrial forest production where large areas of single species, often with cloned genetics are grown, where often biota are controlled chemically and the whole planting is clear felled at the end of each rotation. At other farm forestry sites it is common to follow a similar process only on a smaller more integrated scale. Here obviously we are integrating and including many species, including fauna and multiple methodologies of both landscape patterning but also management regimes. It’s a lot more complicated that’s for sure.

In the 1998-2002 plantings we were intent on developing a mixed species layout where the various species complexes (typically made of two species in each complex) were placed according to soil type and aspect. We basically decided this from the initial ‘high-level’ planning and then when the rows were prepared and the trees grown and delivered we then made the decisions to ultimately place the trees as a planting team. We had a great crew with us on that job, made up of new and old heads and it was an interesting process that did and didn’t work. What didn’t work was more a function of tree genetics than anything else, plus some pest animal issues as well.

New revegetation planting (2009)

Each complex throughout these systems are composed of a non-legume (all Eucalypts except for Grevillea robusta). In the 1998 systems we experimented with inter-row layouts where we would have the following layout as an example:

The specific intent of this layout (3m x 3m) was to have the fast growing Acacias (either Acacia dealbata or A. mearnsii) grow fast and fill the canopy quickly forcing the slower growing Eucalypts to ‘search’ for the available ‘light well’ and therefore reduce side-branching and improve on their form. This has and hasn’t worked. Though with some of the species we are working with they are very slow growing and their Acacia partners were perhaps too fast, though we are still waiting to see the full effect of this over time.

Otherwise in the 2002 planting we went a lot more ‘conventional’ with the following layout:

This appears to be a much better layout overall and so we are sticking with this one by and large. We have dabbled here and there with interplanted layouts in the main forestry complexes but have found they are more cumbersome when on a larger scale. That said on some sites we have worked with such as at Geelong Grammar School (1999-2000) and at the Shell Refinery at Corio (1999-2001) inter-planting worked quite well.

This kind of layout goes like this:

It all comes down to being what works for the forest ‘sociology’, which is reflected in tree performance and how easy it is to manage the systems especially when it comes time to thin the systems. Then things start to get much more complicated. These are times when you can appreciate why industrial foresters go for single height class, single species systems: but then a forest isn’t made of one species and one height class is it?

In 2000 we planted a paddock with a interesting array of ‘Tree Crops’, most of which were exotic species. This paddock we know as TC8 (all species complexes across the farm are individually codified) and it has three rows of Tree Crops at 5m row spacings every 24m. This system includes classic tree crops such as Gleditsia triacanthos var. inermis (thornless honey locust), Ceratonia siliqua (carob), Morus nigra (black mulberry), Quercus ilex (holm oak), Q. suber (cork oak), Q.robur var. fastigiata (fastigate english oak) plus Cytisus palmensis (tagasaste) and Atriplex nummularia (old man saltbush) as interplants between all of the tree crops. This system had ‘Leaky Hose’ subsurface irrigation installed in 2003 and is going along quite well, except the tagasaste’s have been hit pretty hard by the ‘roos.

From 2004 we were filling in the gaps ‘up the back’ of Dalpura and we decided to get a lot more complex with our plantings in the remaining places free to plant. So this involved very complicated layouts with lots of species: some of which were really pushing the edges of experimentation. Some suffered accordingly as they revealed themselves to not be suited to the site whilst others have thrived and have led to further planting of those species. We also experimented with using very tall plastic tree guards due to the kangaroo predation throughout the property on some of the plantings.

Walled garden and new orchard. Polewood in foreground from 2004/5 thinnings
of 1998 plantings of Acacia dealbata & Acacia mearnsii (late black wattle)

GH: The initial native forestry systems were planted between 1998-2002. They cover ~18 hectares, and include sixteen species of Australian trees (nine species of Eucalypts, four Acacia species, two Casuarinas and Grevillea robusta). Since then we have broadened our species selection, experimenting on a small scale with mixed plantings of Acacias and Northern hemisphere hardwoods (a range of oak, ash, beech, elm, cherry, walnut, liquidamber and many others).

A key long-term goal with the timber plantations is to enhance the soil fertility within these systems, both for its own sake and to enable the growing of a wider range of species 30-50 years down the track. In terms of building soil fertility the purpose was to harness the benefits of interplanting nitrogen-fixing, leguminous trees such as Acacias with Eucalypts and other broad-leafed species. The diverse range of species leads to a richer and more complex mix of minerals and microbial life in the litter layer that is continually forming on the forest floor.

Probably the main difference between our approach to silvicultural management and that of other farm forestry growers is our system of managing the inter-row areas. We allow revegetation to occur naturally between every second row (predominantly pioneer undergrowth species such as prickly ti-tree, hedge wattle, prickly moses and also a range of native heaths, various grasses and ground covers, mosses and lichens…), mulching the alternate rows to maintain access for silvicultural management work and timber extraction. This system mimics a forest ecology, with the various tiers of vegetation performing a range of functions in the system – improving the soil below the surface through root action, and increasing the amount of organic matter deposited as forest litter (leaves, sticks, seed, branches and bark; bird droppings and animal scats…); acting as protective habitat for a greater number of birds and insects; & also reducing evaporation and mitigating the effect of damaging winds on the timber trees etc.

As well as this, we manage the coppice re-growth of hardwood species as a follow-up to our thinning regime, in order to create multiple-aged trees within a uniform-age-class plantation. Ultimately, around five-to-ten specimens of each species will be retained per hectare as semi-permanent inhabitants of the system. They will be used as a source of good quality seed for growing seedlings from that species, and will carry out all the ecological functions that mature trees perform in what will effectively become an analog forest.

Indifferent form displayed on Eucalyptus tricarpa. Poor genetics we think.

CM: As you’re trying things in forestry that might not have been ventured before, you’ll obviously be on an experiential learning curve, discovering some species and design aspects that are working well, and some that aren’t. The time frames involved in growing trees are considerable, so learning what we can from your experience could save people many years of wasted effort and expense. Can you give us some insights from your learning curve with this project. What worked, what didn’t, and what would you do differently? I noticed for example, that some species tended to be a bit crooked, perhaps not so good for using as timber, and some were stunted in growth, etc.

Some of your lessons will be location-specific, affected by regional climate, and also other factors like kangaroos, etc., but some will be lessons that can be applied in other countries and climate zones. Perhaps we should separate these for the benefit of all.

DD: As I have already mentioned the brief was the outset was clear, and George has enunciated it clearly in this interview. Quite a few well known Permaculture practitioners (including: Cam Wilson, Paul ‘Ringo’ Kean, Derek Ashby, David Holmgren and David Griffiths) have worked or advised at Dalpura Farm over the years and found things of interest there. It is a difficult site with its soils and the average rainfall since we started has been much less than average so its not what you would call an ideal site from that perspective. A few have been quite disparaging about what we have been doing, often though they have focused on some of the various system’s misgivings such as those you mentioned.

That said we felled trees in 2003/4 that were planted in 1998 and then ultimately milled and dried these for furniture after that. We have radically increased the biodiversity values of the site due to our layout style and management regime. The bulk of the systems are in good shape and we will continue ad infinitum to obtain timber and forest products from this site. We and others will continue to learn from George’s munificence and the different influences that all of the project’s players have had over the years. The current manager Matty Fahey is doing a great job and I can’t wait to see what the place looks like after nearly a year away. There is so much to see there and it is one of the sites in my portfolio that I learn the most from, and I am not the only one.

Biggest lessons?

• Start small but experiment on the edges and nooks widely
• Go and check out others sites in your region or regions with similar climates
• Do a Master Tree Growers Course (www.mtg.unimelb.edu.au)
• Subscribe to Australian Agroforestry (www.mtg.unimelb.edu.au)
• Join your local Farm Forestry network
• Use high quality tree genetics from mixed, tested provenances
• Work with high quality nurseries
• Ensure high quality ground preparation and prepare a year or two ahead of planting
• Get the fungi going – mycorrhizal when planting and saprophytic when thinning
• Practice silviculture regularly: as our great, late mate Joe Polaischer used to say, "its working man’s yoga!"

Quercus robur var. fastigiata (fastigate oak) silvopastoral system planted in 2000

GH: There is a fair amount of truth in Chou Enlai’s observation that "it’s still too early to tell". We are attempting to create inter-generational forestry systems along the model of Northern European practices starting from a fixed point in time. A number of the trees being planted are not intended to be harvested until well beyond my lifetime, and some past my childrens’ life times as well.

Part of the strategy of Darren’s design thinking was to plant a variety of species which have staggered time-lines from planting to harvest. The Acacia mearnsii and A. dealbata (Late black wattle and Silver wattle) are expected to be ready for harvest at around 15-20 years old, whereas with the River red gums and Red ironbark (Eucalyptus camuldulensis and E. tricarpa) we are looking at 35 years+. And with Californian redwoods (Sequoia sempervirens) and some other species we are probably looking at 80-100 years+.

Ironically, some of the trees exhibiting poorer form which you refer to are ones like Red ironbark and Yellow gum (E. tricarpa and E. leucoxylon), which are indigenous to this area, and adapted to growing in gravelly soils with moderate rainfall. We have found that trees do not respond entirely predictably to new and unfamiliar conditions. Experimentation with a wide range of species often brings surprising results.

Lessons applicable in region: Establishing the plantations on a Keyline layout has been invaluable, and is particularly applicable to lower rainfall regions. Our historical rainfall is around the 24" (600mm) mark, but having experienced a number of below average years since planting, capturing and utilising the available rainfall has been critical in the trees’ development, and, in some cases, survival.

One of the main unanticipated problems has been kangaroo predation on certain species, especially Blackwood and Lightwood (A. melanoxylon and A. implexa), as well as many of the exotic broad-leafed species. We have evolved a guarding system to deal with this predation, using 2m tall plastic guards attached to 7′ hardwood stakes. While the initial capital cost and follow-up labour is not cheap, we have been able to re-use the guards a number of times over.

Lessons applicable almost anywhere: Leaving every 2nd row to natural re-vegetation, and mulching to increase the breakdown of woody organic matter and provide more fungal food for soil biota.

Experiment with a broad range of species, and allow time to observe how they respond to a new environment. For example, Sugar gum and Spotted gum seedlings (E. cladocalyx and Corymbia maculata) were planted close to one another back in 1998. The Sugar gum boomed after the first couple of years, whereas the Spotted gum suffered from frost events in their early years, and were probably about 1.5m tall on average compared to the Sugar gums’ 8-10m after five years’ growth. However the Spotted gum has gradually taken off, and caught the Sugar gum in spite of the initial growth differential.

Close up of the magnificent Eucalyptus tricarpa

CM: This property is 140 acres, but do you think there’s anything the average guy on a quarter acre could be doing along these lines as well?

DD: Forestry can be done anywhere and Geoff’s ‘Food Forest’ video shows that the elements of forestry expand on the view we’ve been putting out there for a long time now: That the structure of forests never changes much wherever you are, rather it is the species that change, though their roles as life forms don’t within each forest. A forest is also made up of more than just the plants: it is a living, dynamic and ever evolving system that includes all of the kingdoms of nature.

As for your ¼ acre block, food forestry will be your best bet due to the practical issues of felling trees for timber production etc. By and large it will be non-timber forest production. That said you can do some very creative kerb-side coppicing for the rocket stove! Urban mixed species, multi-purpose agroforestry in the Zone 3 & 4 landscapes of our urban and peri-urban spaces makes a huge amount of sense as we move into the ‘new carbon’ economy (as opposed to ‘old’ or fossil carbon) where our wastes are cycled locally into a range of high quality products.

Echium candicans (pride of madiera) bee forage avenue planting (foreground) with
Cytisus palmensis (tagasaste) nurse planting in Keyline parkland

CM: And finally, a question specifically for the owner, George Howson: Investing time and money and ignoring potential lost income from the land in the interim takes some determined long term thinking. Can you give us a rough idea of investment cost, and expected returns?

GH: I think that any evaluation of the financial returns on specialty timber growing is ultimately academic, given the extended time-frames we are dealing with before many of the trees are ready for harvesting. Many of the intended returns from this project will not be measurable in economic terms. However, to answer your question as best I can, my underlying assumption has been that farm-grown timber will appreciate in value in excess of CPI over its financial life-cycle, and that the capital value of the property, and increased production potential due to increases in fertility levels, will generate growth in excess of the value of comparable rural land. Unfortunately, I won’t still be around by the time this project is really coming to fruition, and beginning to realise its true economic/aesthetic/ecological/social and farming potential.

One of the hidden benefits of working on a project of this nature has been the development in my own skills and knowledge as a designer. Working with Darren and other people such as Dave Griffiths of Geometree, and watching how systems evolve and develop over many years has been a great education. Very challenging at times, exciting and tremendously satisfying at others, but overall a richly rewarding journey.

Xanthorrhoea australis (austral grass tree) detail

Our early twenty-first century civilization is being squeezed between advancing deserts and rising seas. Measured by the biologically productive land area that can support human habitation, the earth is shrinking. Mounting population densities, once generated solely by population growth, are now also fueled by the relentless advance of deserts and may soon be affected by the projected rise in sea level. As overpumping depletes aquifers, millions more are forced to relocate in search of water.

Desert expansion in sub-Saharan Africa, principally in the Sahelian countries, is displacing millions of people—forcing them to either move southward or migrate to North Africa. A 2006 U.N. conference on desertification in Tunisia projected that by 2020 up to 60 million people could migrate from sub-Saharan Africa to North Africa and Europe. This flow of migrants has been under way for many years.

In mid-October 2003, Italian authorities discovered a boat bound for Italy carrying refugees from Africa. After being adrift for more than two weeks and having run out of fuel, food, and water, many of the passengers had died. At first the dead were tossed overboard. But after a point, the remaining survivors lacked the strength to hoist the bodies over the side. The dead and the living shared the boat, resembling what a rescuer described as “a scene from Dante’s Inferno.”

The refugees were believed to be Somalis who had embarked from Libya, but the survivors would not reveal their country of origin, lest they be sent home. We do not know whether they were political, economic, or environmental refugees. Failed states like Somalia produce all three. We do know that Somalia is an ecological disaster, with overpopulation, overgrazing, and the resulting desertification destroying its pastoral economy.

Perhaps the largest flow of Somali migrants is into Yemen, another failing state. In 2008 an estimated 50,000 migrants and asylum seekers reached Yemen, 70 percent more than in 2007. And during the first three months of 2009 the migrant flow was up 30 percent over the same period in 2008. These numbers simply add to the already unsustainable pressures on Yemen’s land and water resources, hastening its decline.

On April 30, 2006, a man fishing off the coast of Barbados discovered a 20-foot boat adrift with the bodies of 11 young men on board, bodies that were “virtually mummified” by the sun and salty ocean spray. As the end drew near, one passenger left a note tucked between two bodies: “I would like to send my family in Basada [Senegal] a sum of money. Please excuse me and goodbye.” The author of the note was apparently one of a group of 52 who had left Senegal on Christmas Eve aboard a boat destined for the Canary Islands, a jumping off point for Europe. They must have drifted for some 2,000 miles, ending their trip in the Caribbean. This boat was not unique. During the first weekend of September 2006, police intercepted boats from Mauritania with a record total of nearly 1,200 people on board.

For those living in Central American countries, including Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and El Salvador, Mexico is often the gateway to the United States. In 2008, Mexican immigration authorities reported some 39,000 detentions and 89,000 deportations.

In the city of Tapachula on the Guatemala-Mexico border, young men in search of jobs wait along the tracks for a slow-moving freight train passing through the city en route to the north. Some make it onto the train. Others do not. The Jesús el Buen Pastor refuge is home to 25 amputees who lost their grip and fell under a train while trying to board. For these young men, says Olga Sánchez Martínez, the director of the refuge, this is the “end of their American dream.” A local priest, Flor María Rigoni, calls the migrants attempting to board the trains “the kamikazes of poverty.”

Today, bodies washing ashore in Italy, Spain, and Turkey are a daily occurrence, the result of desperate acts by desperate people. And each day Mexicans risk their lives in the Arizona desert trying to reach jobs in the United States. On average, some 100,000 or more Mexicans leave rural areas every year, abandoning plots of land too small or too eroded to make a living. They either head for Mexican cities or try to cross illegally into the United States. Many of those who try to cross the Arizona desert perish in its punishing heat. Since 2001, some 200 bodies have been found along the Arizona border each year.

With the vast majority of the 2.4 billion people to be added to the world by 2050 coming in countries where water tables are already falling, water refugees are likely to become commonplace. They will be most common in arid and semiarid regions where populations are outgrowing the water supply and sinking into hydrological poverty. Villages in northwestern India are being abandoned as aquifers are depleted and people can no longer find water. Millions of villagers in northern and western China and in parts of Mexico may have to move because of a lack of water.

Advancing deserts are squeezing expanding populations into an ever smaller geographic area. Whereas the U.S. Dust Bowl displaced 3 million people, the advancing desert in China’s Dust Bowl provinces could displace tens of millions.

Africa, too, is facing this problem. The Sahara Desert is pushing the populations of Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria northward toward the Mediterranean. In a desperate effort to deal with drought and desertification, Morocco is geographically restructuring its agriculture, replacing grain with less thirsty orchards and vineyards.

In Iran, villages abandoned because of spreading deserts or a lack of water already number in the thousands. In the vicinity of Damavand, a small town within an hour’s drive of Tehran, 88 villages have been abandoned. And as the desert takes over in Nigeria, farmers and herders are forced to move, squeezed into a shrinking area of productive land. Desertification refugees typically end up in cities, many in squatter settlements. Others migrate abroad.

In Latin America, deserts are expanding and forcing people to move in both Brazil and Mexico. In Brazil, some 66 million hectares of land are affected, much of it concentrated in the country’s northeast. In Mexico, with a much larger share of arid and semiarid land, the degradation of cropland now extends over 59 million hectares.

While desert expansion and water shortages are now displacing millions of people, rising seas promise to displace far greater numbers in the future, given the concentration of the world’s population in low-lying coastal cities and rice-growing river deltas. The numbers could eventually reach the hundreds of millions, offering yet another powerful reason for stabilizing both climate and population.

In the end, the issue with rising seas is whether governments are strong enough to withstand the political and economic stress of relocating large numbers of people while suffering heavy coastal losses of housing and industrial facilities.

During this century we must deal with the effects of trends—rapid population growth, advancing deserts, and rising seas—that we set in motion during the last century. Our choice is a simple one: reverse these trends or risk being overwhelmed by them.

~~~~~~~

Adapted from Chapter 2, “Population Pressure: Land and Water,” in Lester R. Brown, Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2009).

A wise person once said that soil is not only more complex than we know, it is more complex than we can ever know! The good news is humans have lately achieved a level of practically applicable knowledge and experience in soil biology to be absolutely capable of massive, positive impacts on sustainable soil use world-wide! It is undoubtedly true that we’ll never know everything, but no matter – we already know enough to get very, very busy!

Renowned microbiologist Dr. Elaine Ingham kicked off the West coast leg of the first-of-its-kind Carbon Economy Course with a powerful three-day learning-fest centered on the soil food web. The bionics of biology, miracles of super-charged soils, blessings of extra-strength compost, and explosive results of super-activated compost teas were all on abundant offer in this powerful course. Such topics sparked a highly-charged, enlivening energy in the ‘brain-food-web’ of the attending students, while setting an inspired tone for the modules to follow in the series!

Thirty seven enthusiastic soil nerds, garden-geeks, and other ecologically minded farmers, permaculturists, and assorted agrarian adventurers from all over the US and beyond (many from all parts of California, Colorado and as far as Vermont) converged at the beautiful Orella Ranch for a full complement of complex food web inter-dynamics, mind-blowing biological success stories, rigorous scientific data, and no shortage of classic, coastal California sunsets overlooking the rippling Pacific (this radiance was rivaled only by the continual ‘light-bulbs’ popping on above the heads of the students in class!).

Orella Ranch, California coast

Dr. Ingham is President and Director of Research of Soil Food Web, Inc.; a successful commercial lab (with locations in Australia, Canada, South Africa and the US) which analyses soil and tea samples for their clientele, as well as providing consultation on using biology to vastly increase soil and plant health and promote a sustainable permanent agriculture. Clients include everyone from backyard gardeners to ranchers to 5,000 hectare farms and beyond (SFW, Inc. has worked with growers on over 2 million acres). A prolific author of cutting-edge research in the area of soil biology, Dr. Ingham is also a very engaging speaker and energetic teacher who is never more excited than when sharing her wealth of knowledge with students in the courses she offers regularly.

Talk about “Care of EARTH!” Most would agree this first of the Permaculture ethics begins quite literally with the small ‘e’ earth itself; soil. In this spirit, the Orella SFW course started off with a detailed introduction to the massive variety of soil organisms, from bacteria and fungi, through protozoans and nematodes, and on through the food web into micro and macro-arthopods and earthworms (An excellent condensed introduction to these can be found in Dr. Ingham’s Soil Biology Primer—a USDA publication). Along the way students learned about how the various organisms function in soils to:

• produce good soil structure
• cycle various nutrients (nitrogen, sulfur, phosphorous, etc.) and make them available to plants
• interact with each other and with the root zones of plants
• provide nutrition to plants in the right places, at the right times and in the right amounts
• improve water holding capacity and aeration
• reduce compaction
• eliminate any need for pesticides or inorganic fertilizers
• greatly reduce water use (often, up to 70% reductions)
• increase both plant yields and topsoil

All of this, along with much more learning–about the affects of aerobic vs. anaerobic soil conditions, bacterial to fungal biomass ratios in the various ecosystems of the world, as well as the steps needed to move from a conventional industrial farming model to a biological and sustainable one—was only the first half!

Next, Dr. Ingham took the increasingly energized class through a detailed and well researched explanation of creating lively composts, brimming with the good biology needed in the soils and by the plants. This included different recipes for different scales and contexts, ways to tilt your composts towards bacterial or fungal dominance depending on your needs, as well as worm-composts and general vermiculture.

Finally the course dug into the topic of using good composts to brew excellent compost teas! From teas to extracts and soil drenches, Dr. Ingham took the class through the process, explaining how to best get life—and the precise life that you want–exploding in your tea bucket, vat, or tank, and from there out into your soil, or onto your plants. In the process students were exposed to amazing slides and explanations of the various and fascinating forms of life we want to see and identify in our teas and extracts when sampling them under the microscope. By course end, having been very well ‘inoculated’ and ‘activated’ with this valuable information, everyone was itching to get brewing!

A few additional ‘light-bulb’ sparking tidbits from this excellent course:

• There is life in soils as deep down into the earth’s core as humans have sampled—16 miles! There are even bacteria adapted to a habitat of molten lava!
• Organic matter holds TEN TIMES its weight in water, and there is no upper limit to the amount of organic matter a soil can hold! 100% not impossible.
• A healthy soil will have 50,000 protozoa per gram/teaspoon. These will collectively eat 500 million bacteria (per gram) every day (about 10,000 bacteria per protozoan), releasing 400 million molecules of Nitrogen (per gram, per day), typically right in the root zone!
• Standard soil tests measure only 1% of the total pool of soil nutrient (which is the ‘soluble fraction’ existing precisely at the time of sampling). This 1% fraction gives no information about the rate of nutrient cycling and replenishment provided by the soil biology from the remaining fraction. There is, therefore, no relationship – zero – between the numbers these standard lab tests will give you and the nutrients that end up in your plants! With the right biology in your soils plants will tend to have access to all major nutritional needs regardless of ‘low’ soluble fractions shown on standard lab tests.
• Using good soil biology can even eliminate the need for the very ancient practice of crop rotation! No disease, no need to rotate. Continual nutrient supply, no need to rotate. Therefore, one need never till again, saving time, energy and money, while increasing surplus topsoil, yields and other profit margins!
• Who doesn’t like CHOCOLATE! A well made, finished compost – likely to have all the ‘good guy’ food-web organisms we want – can be COLOR checked against a 70% cocoa chocolate bar. That is the ideal color we want to aim for in our composts and even topsoils. Check it out and enjoy!

Thank you, Dr. Ingham, for your tireless efforts and kudos to the good folks at Quail Springs and Orella Ranch who are jointly organizing and convening this leading-edge series. Congratulations on a very successful start! See the links to these organizations to learn more or to donate in support of their ongoing efforts to bring sustainable land management practices to a wider audience. Also, see the Soil Food Web, Inc. website for updates on future SFW courses or to purchase Dr. Ingham’s books or lectures (on cd) and learn even more of this fascinating and powerful information.

Next up in the Orella hosted West coast Carbon Economy Series: Sustainable Land Management with Kirk Gadzia (Holistic Management – Resource Management Services) and Darren Doherty (Keyline Design, Broadacre Permaculture – Permaculture.biz ). See you there!

Owen Hablutzel performs international work in Permaculture design, consultation, speaking, and education. He is a director of the Permaculture Research Institute, USA, and can be reached at owen (at) permacultureusa.org

The bankers dictate to governments, and manipulate the populace, not the other way around – and boy do they have the tools and position to enable them to do so. What a wonderfully privileged position they hold….

I sincerely believe the banking institutions having the issuing power of money, are more dangerous to liberty than standing armies. – Thomas Jefferson

Who controls money controls the world. – Henry Kissinger, Council on Foreign Relations

I thought I’d celebrate this news by sharing an interesting documentary about the practical results of industry-scale carbon ‘indulgences’ for the people involved on the ground. The film embedded at bottom was created by two groups of people separated by cultural differences and great distance and yet who are linked by the absurdities that result from inherently destructive industries trying to make themselves appear a little ‘less bad’ – by attempting to sweep their dirt under a mat that lies thousands of miles away.

The two groups of people are from Grangemouth, Scotland and Sao Jose do Buriti, Brazil. British Petroleum (or Beyond Petroleum as they like to call themselves today, although they should really call themselves ‘Back to Petroleum‘) sought to offset its Grangemouth refinery emissions, which were wreaking havoc for the Grangemouth townsfolk, by planting forests in Sao Jose do Buriti – resulting in large monoculture eucalyptus plantations robbing the people of the region of the limited water reserves they had.

Brazil is one of the most active ‘hotspots’ for the carbon market, hosting nearly 20 per cent of all offset projects. In Brazil there are nearly 4 million hectares (an area the size of Belgium) of monoculture eucalyptus plantations, some of which are being earmarked for carbon trading by the Government, the World Bank, and private companies. Much of this land was appropriated by the former dictatorship and ceded to private plantation companies without regard for the communities that have been living there for generations. Numerous people have been evicted from their lands, lost access to shared water and land resources, and have had their livelihoods and ecosystems destroyed. One local farmer, Antonio, remarked: ‘Eucalyptus has been grown with blood.’ – New Internationalist

The people of each town, as they share video footage with each other, interestingly become just as horrified at the plight of their distant counterparts as they were about their own predicament. It’s well worth a watch, and a little consideration.

The Carbon Connection
Duration: 00:40:31

The water is usually that light aqua colour all the way to the shore. Photo: Durnford Dart

A full two weeks after the tsunami, the ocean and the sky still retained a turbulent quality reminiscent of an unimaginably intense energy phenomenon.

I write this article about a month after a severe earthquake/tsunami struck southern Upolu (the main island of Western Samoa). With respectful remembrance of all those who lost their lives, and with prayers for the strength of survivors, I will make no attempt to report about the actual event, or the emotive aspects of disaster aftermath, or the political issues related to disaster aid. I will describe only a small contribution to what is now being practically done in response to this phenomenon.

Many families, with admirable bravery, have started a new life beyond the dead brown limits of the tsunami’s reach. Food and clothing was brought in very quickly and tents and tarpaulins were supplied for those with no alternative shelter to go to. However, in the tropical heat and rain, and with large families to keep together, these tents are less than ideal for living – and rebuilding permanently takes time, especially considering all the hoops aid money seems to have to jump through before being made available for the long-term benefit of people. This is why following the tsunami, METI Permaculture staff stopped work and offered their expertise to construct comfortable, cheap and quickly-erected bamboo geodesic dome shelters.

Attaching the palm frond insulation to the finished frame of this dome.
Photo: Durnford Dart

Locally manufactured metal plates form very simple joints for the dome shape, and traditional roofing is adapted to fit the new domes. Photo: Durnford Dart

Very sincere thanks must go to Durnford Dart (Mr Bamboo of Australia) who volunteered his valuable knowledge and long hours of extended hard work to make this contribution possible. With his help the team selected suitable bamboo clumps around the island and from METI’s own unique bamboo plantation, harvested the appropriate poles, and transported them to the damaged area.

The team (which generally inflates to around 15 people when the village gets involved) can now fully erect a structure like this in 2 hours. An important element in this project is the teaching of local people the construction method, thereby gifting a self-sustaining option for supplying shelters across the country.

The residents Photo: Durnford Dart

Compared to the tents, the domes are very cool, providing shade but letting breeze flow right through. The basic structure does not include a floor, so things can get a bit wet in very strong rain, however the beauty of these simple structures is that the amendments and additions their owners can make is virtually endless – and materials are plentiful to construct a raised platform, woven walls, further insulation etc. Although the domes are intended as emergency, temporary solutions, we suspect many Samoans will be keen to maintain their domes for as long as the untreated, sometimes immature bamboo will hold up (and then of course, it is a simple matter of replacing the poles).

METI is in the process of securing funding in order to continue the project (costs are attributed to transport and materials – like tarpaulins which could be replaced with thatch over time and metal plates to join poles.)

Many other local and overseas organizations are also working ceaselessly to improve the lives of disaster-affected people.

Meanwhile, our Permaculture Demonstration and Training centre is continuing to develop to be in a position to provide all people of Samoa, and especially those displaced by the tsunami, with knowledge and resources to provide for their families abundantly and sustainably.

by George Monbiot: journalist, author, academic and environmental and political activist, United Kingdom

There is no point in denying it: we’re losing. Climate change denial is spreading like a contagious disease. It exists in a sphere which cannot be reached by evidence or reasoned argument; any attempt to draw attention to scientific findings is greeted with furious invective. This sphere is expanding with astonishing speed.

A survey last month by the Pew Research Centre suggests that the proportion of Americans who believe there’s solid evidence that the world has been warming over the past few decades has fallen from 71% to 57% in just 18 months(1). Another survey, conducted in January by Rasmussen Reports, suggests that, due to a sharp rise since 2006, US voters who believe that global warming is the result of natural causes (44%) now outnumber those who believe it is caused by human action (41%)(2).

A study by the website Desmogblog shows that the number of internet pages proposing that manmade global warming is a hoax or a lie more than doubled in 2008(3). The Science Museum’s Prove it! exhibition asks online readers to endorse or reject a statement that they’ve seen the evidence and want governments to take action. As of yesterday afternoon, 1006 people had endorsed it and 6110 had rejected it(4). On Amazon.co.uk, books championing climate change denial are currently ranked at 1,2,4,5,7 and 8 in the global warming category(5). Never mind that they’ve been torn to shreds by scientists and reviewers, they are beating the scientific books by miles. What is going on?

It certainly doesn’t reflect the state of the science, which has hardened dramatically over the past two years. If you don’t believe me, open any recent edition of Science or Nature or any peer-reviewed journal specialising in atmospheric or environmental science. Go on, try it. The debate about global warming that’s raging on the internet and in the rightwing press does not reflect any such debate in the scientific journals.

An American scientist I know suggests that these books and websites cater to a new literary market: people with room-temperature IQs. He didn’t say whether he meant Fahrenheit or Centigrade. But this can’t be the whole story. Plenty of intelligent people have also declared themselves sceptics.

One such is the critic Clive James. You could accuse him of purveying trite received wisdom, but not of being dumb. On Radio Four a few days ago he delivered an essay about the importance of scepticism, during which he maintained that “the number of scientists who voice scepticism [about climate change] has lately been increasing.”(6) He presented no evidence to support this statement and, as far as I can tell, none exists. But he used this contention to argue that “either side might well be right, but I think that if you have a division on that scale, you can’t call it a consensus. Nobody can meaningfully say that the science is in.”

Had he bothered to take a look at the quality of the evidence on either side of this media debate, and the nature of the opposing armies – climate scientists on one side, rightwing bloggers on the other – he too might have realised that the science is in. In, at any rate, to the extent that science can ever be, which is to say that the evidence for manmade global warming is as strong as the evidence for Darwinian evolution, or for the link between smoking and lung cancer. I am constantly struck by the way in which people like James, who proclaim themselves sceptics, will believe any old claptrap that suits their views. Their position was perfectly summarised by a supporter of Ian Plimer (author of a marvellous concatenation of gibberish called Heaven and Earth(7)) commenting on a recent article in the Spectator. “Whether Plimer is a charlatan or not, he speaks for many of us”(8). These people aren’t sceptics; they’re suckers.

Such beliefs seem to be strongly influenced by age. The Pew report found that people over 65 are much more likely than the rest of the population to deny that there is solid evidence that the earth is warming, that it’s caused by humans or that it’s a serious problem(9). This chimes with my own experience. Almost all my fiercest arguments over climate change, both in print and in person, have been with people in their 60s or 70s. Why might this be?

There are some obvious answers: they won’t be around to see the results; they were brought up in a period of technological optimism; they feel entitled, having worked all their lives, to fly or cruise to wherever they wish. But there might also be a less intuitive reason, which shines a light into a fascinating corner of human psychology.

In 1973 the cultural anthropologist Ernest Becker proposed that the fear of death drives us to protect ourselves with “vital lies” or “the armour of character”(10). We defend ourselves from the ultimate terror by engaging in immortality projects, which boost our self-esteem and grant us meaning that extends beyond death. Over 300 studies conducted in 15 countries appear to confirm Becker’s thesis(11). When people are confronted with images or words or questions that remind them of death they respond by shoring up their worldview, rejecting people and ideas that threaten it and increasing their striving for self-esteem(12).

One of the most arresting findings is that immortality projects can bring death closer. In seeking to defend the symbolic, heroic self that we create to suppress thoughts of death, we might expose the physical self to greater danger. For example, researchers at Bar-Ilan University in Israel found that people who reported that driving boosted their self-esteem drove faster and took greater risks after they had been exposed to reminders of death(13).

A recent paper by the biologist Janis L Dickinson, published in the journal Ecology and Society, proposes that constant news and discussion about global warming makes it difficult for people to repress thoughts of death, and that they might respond to the terrifying prospect of climate breakdown in ways that strengthen their character armour but diminish our chances of survival(14). There is already experimental evidence suggesting that some people respond to reminders of death by increasing consumption(15). Dickinson proposes that growing evidence of climate change might boost this tendency, as well as raising antagonism towards scientists and environmentalists. Our message, after all, presents a lethal threat to the central immortality project of Western society: perpetual economic growth, supported by an ideology of entitlement and exceptionalism.

If Dickinson is correct, is it fanciful to suppose that those who are closer to the end of their lives might react more strongly against reminders of death? I haven’t been able to find any experiments testing this proposition, but it is surely worth investigating. And could it be that the rapid growth of climate change denial over the past two years is actually a response to the hardening of scientific evidence? If so, how the hell do we confront it?

With thanks to George Marshall

References:

1. http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/556.pdf
2. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/environment_energy/44_say_global_warming_due_to_planetary_trends_not_people
3. http://www.desmogblog.com/2008-stats-global-warming-denial-blogosphere
4. http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/proveit.aspx
5. http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/search/ref=sr_nr_n_8?rh=n%3A266239%2Cn%3A!1025612%2Cn%3A57%2Cn%3A278080%2Cn%3A922416&bbn=278080&ie=UTF8&qid=1257145116&rnid=278080
6. Clive James, 23rd October 2009. A Point of View. BBC Radio 4. http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00n9lm3/A_Point_of_View_23_10_2009/
7. http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2009/09/14/answers-come-there-none/
8. http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5332261/an-empty-chair-for-monbiot.thtml
9. http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/556.pdf
10. Ernest Becker, 1973. The Denial of Death, pp47-66. Republished 1997. Free Press Paperbacks, New York.
11. Tom Pyszczynski et al, 2006. On the Unique Psychological Import of the Human Awareness of Mortality: Theme and Variations. Psychological Inquiry, Vol. 17, No. 4, 328–356.
12. Jeff Greenberg et al, 1992. Terror Management and Tolerance: does mortality salience always intensify negative reactions to others who threaten one’s worldview? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol 63, No 2 212-220.
13. OT Ben-Ari et al, 1999. The impact of mortality salience on reckless driving: a test of terror management mechanisms. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol 76, No 1 35-45.
14. Janis L. Dickinson, 2009. The People Paradox: Self-Esteem Striving, Immortality Ideologies, and Human Response to Climate Change. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org:80/vol14/iss1/art34/
15. T. Kasser and K. M. Sheldon, 2000. Of wealth and death: materialism, mortality salience, and consumption behavior. Psychological Science 11:348-351, Cited by Janis L Dickinson, above.