Peterson Institute Update

Labor markets and structural transformation in times of change: AI and demographic shifts

Tue, 17 Nov 2026 09:00:00 -0500

Labor markets around the world are being reshaped by powerful trends, including rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI), and population aging in some regions and youth bulges in others. AI's impact on labor markets is multifaceted and complex: It has the potential to create new job opportunities and make many jobs more productive, but it will also automate some tasks leading to the destruction of some of today's jobs. AI can also affect labor markets by changing international patterns of specialization. At the same time, demographic trends pose additional challenges. In all developed…

Ukraine's fiscal and financial challenges

Nicolas Véron, Natalie Jaresko — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 09:00:00 -0400

As it faces the exigencies of an existential war, Ukraine is confronted with stark fiscal and financial policy trade-offs, despite the mitigation provided by large-scale external financial support. So far, its authorities have kept monetary and financial stability under control beyond a relatively brief initial episode of turmoil in 2022.
What is the broad fiscal equation for Ukraine looking forward, taking into account uncertainties about European funding beyond 2027? Can domestic revenue be raised? Is International Monetary Fund conditionality effective and appropriate? What is the state of…

The Florence Report: An agenda for Europe

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:30:00 -0400

The Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) host a discussion of The Florence Report: Reconfiguring Europe in a fractured global economy. As Europe confronts slowing growth, competitiveness pressures, geopolitical fragmentation, demographic change, and renewed demands on public institutions, the Florence Report outlines the needed move towards a more integrated and cohesive approach to economic policy.
This event explores the path toward a new European social contract, one centered on renewed economic strategy, resilience, solidarity,…

The USMCA review: Where is it going?

Cecilia Malmström, Kellie Meiman Hock, Jeffrey J. Schott — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 09:00:00 -0400

The United States-Mexico-Canada agreement (USMCA), a free trade agreement between the three countries, entered into force in July 2020. The agreement, which replaces the former North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) from 1994, has been an important tool to integrate trade and investment between the three countries and benefited millions of people. The agreement is now up for revision, in the midst of increasing trade tensions across the world. Will there be real revision or a complete renegotiation, or will difficulties drag out the talks for a long time? What are the possible outcomes?…

All things US trade with Jeffrey J. Schott

Anjali V. Bhatt, Jeffrey J. Schott — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 11:00:00 -0400

One of PIIE's longest tenured fellows, Jeffery J. Schott joins Insider LIVE to share the latest in US trade developments. Host Anjali V. Bhatt sits down with Schott to discuss all things trade, from what to watch for in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review, to the state of South Korean–US trade relations, to his experience as a US trade negotiator, and more.
HOST
Anjali V. Bhatt Communications Manager and Research Fellow, PIIE
GUEST
Jeffrey J. Schott Senior Fellow, PIIE

The latest US squeeze on Brazil jeopardizes its financial autonomy

Monica de Bolle — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:10:00 -0400

The Trump administration's determination to come up with new rationales for old tariffs has now targeted Brazil. This month, the US Trade Representative (USTR) suddenly concluded that a range of Brazilian policies are "discriminatory," justifying punitive tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, the president's retaliatory authority. Among the practices singled out is PIX, Brazil's central bank–owned instant payment platform that processes most digital payments for Brazilians.
Many US credit card companies have complained for years that this payment system discriminates against…

Are Venezuelan bondholders trying to jump the line?

Alejandro Werner — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 13:01:00 -0400

On May 13, 2026, the government of Venezuela announced its intent to commence the restructuring process of its sovereign debt and the debt of its state-owned oil company PDVSA. This announcement came as a considerable surprise, as the country currently lacks a viable economic program to address one of the most significant economic reconstruction challenges of our time. The absence of a roadmap for democratic transition heightens uncertainty and undermines the prospects for a robust recovery.[1]
Furthermore, there is no cohesive economic team in place to determine the financing required to…

Global economic implications of the 2026 Middle East war

Warwick J. McKibbin, Marcus Noland, Geoffrey Shuetrim — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 08:00:00 -0400

This paper explores two scenarios for the potential economic effects of a Middle East war that causes a spike in energy prices. In the first, oil prices surge for one year to around $120 per barrel, while prices also rise sharply for liquefied natural gas, refined petroleum, and fertilizer; in the second, energy prices remain elevated for three years. We find in both scenarios, global growth slows relative to our baseline projection, but the effects are felt very unevenly. Countries dependent on Middle Eastern oil, petroleum, natural gas, and fertilizers experience the largest declines in GDP…

Higher energy prices due to the Middle East war would slow economic growth globally, particularly in emerging markets

Warwick J. McKibbin, Marcus Noland, Geoffrey Shuetrim — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 08:00:00 -0400

This year's Middle East war has driven up energy prices, disrupting economic activity around the world. If these effects persist for a year, they will slow global growth, hurting emerging economies more than advanced economies, according to our new PIIE Working Paper, Global economic implications of the 2026 Middle East war. In this case, 2026 GDP would be lower than otherwise and inflation higher in most economies, but the effects would be spread unevenly: Countries more dependent on Middle Eastern oil, natural gas, and fertilizers would experience the largest hits to GDP. In emerging…

US reciprocal trade deals built to push America's trade partners away from China

Mary E. Lovely, Christine Y. Wan — Thu, 04 Jun 2026 14:00:00 -0400

When the Trump administration imposed so-called "reciprocal," country-specific tariff rates in April 2025, it made clear that the measures were intended not only to protect US industry but also as negotiating leverage to extract bilateral concessions.[1] The president's team subsequently negotiated several deals—called Agreements on Reciprocal Trade, or ARTs—with other countries to adjust US tariff rates and product coverage in return for a variety of concessions. As of May 22, 2026, nine ARTs have been signed and several more are under active negotiation.
The ARTs' fine print reveals,…