GAME OVERVIEW
The dominant theme for this year’s Super Bowl has been about family, with the brothers Jim and John Harbaugh facing off. Last year, both teams advanced to their respective championships only to lose in heartbreaking fashion. This will be only the 3rd time since 1970 that both road teams won their championship games. Both teams also made bold moves on the offensive sides of the ball which broke tendencies that opposing DC’s were unable to decipher. Kaepernick’s mobility and arm strength made the 49ers more aggressive while installing Jim Caldwell as OC had the Ravens use a more up-tempo style of play calling. Both teams represent more of the old school style of the NFL emphasizing a power run game that is backed by brutal defensive play. However, both coaches aren’t afraid to innovate with SF using the Pistol offense and Baltimore having 72 plays of 20+ yards on offense. The 49ers success the last two years has seen a shift towards younger front offices (CEO Jed York is only 32, GM Trent Baalke 46), mobile QB’s, and teams that are open to the concept of bringing in hot college coaching prospects (Chip Kelly/Doug Marrone) or young coordinators. This game also features QB’s from non-marquee schools with Kaepernick from Nevada and Flacco hailing from Delaware. With a win, San Francisco would be the 5th city to win the World Series and the Super Bowl in the same sports season. The bye week will be a huge benefit for both defenses as San Fran has one of the older 3-4 DL’s and Baltimore is one of the oldest teams in the NFL overall. The media has been all over Ray Lewis’ final game much like they were with Jerome Bettis. The Ravens also have Matt Birk, who has been one of the top tier centers in his career, along with FS Ed Reed whose contract expires, in what could be their final games as Ravens as well. The 49ers will be putting their perfect 5-0 Super Bowl record on the line while the Ravens will be compared to their 2000 season built around one of the best defenses in the modern era.

PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE
This is the first Super Bowl for the 49ers in 18 years and the first for the Ravens in 12 years. Over the short term of the last two seasons these are very evenly matched as BAL is 4-1 while SF is 3-1. Over the long term the Ravens have a bigger edge though as they have made the playoffs for 5 straight years with 3 championship berths. They are the only NFL team to win a playoff game each of the last 5 years and have won 14 road playoff games since 2000. The Ravens have forced an NFL best 36 TO’s under John Harbaugh (+16 TO edge) with an 8-4 playoff record. Baltimore has 332 playoff games with 194 playoff starts on the active roster with 8 players having double-digit starts (Lewis 20, Reed 14) and 4 players with Super Bowl experience. San Fran is the first NFC team to earn back-to-back Championship game berths since the 2001-04 when the Eagles did it. In the last 2 years the 49ers have committed just 26 TO’s (NFL best) showing how each coach values that aspect. San Francisco has 236 playoff games and 123 starts on their roster with 3 players having double-digit starts (C Goodwin, LB Haggans, WR Moss). SF will also have some Super Bowl vets as Goodwin was with the Saints team and Moss was with the Patriots. The 49ers are in great shape for the future but for now, the Ravens have the edge and have been better prepped for the media, logistical and practice issues they have had to deal with.
EDGE: RAVENS
RECORDS
Super Bowl 43 was the last time a #2 and #4 seed squared off in the SB. SF has been home for 3 of the last 4 games. BAL been on the road for 3 of the last 4 games and has played a huge number of snaps defensively in the playoffs. BAL went 6-4 vs winning teams this year coming out +38 ypg (+0 TO’s) with a 27-25 avg score. The Ravens are 9-4 vs non-division teams avg -8 ypg (+6 TO’s) with a 27-23 avg score. On the road, they are 6-4 being outgained by 32 ypg (+10 TO’s) being outscored 24-23. On the flip side, San Fran went 6-3 coming out +15 ypg (+6 TO’s) with a 25-21 avg score on the road. They are 10-2 vs non-division foes avg +87 ypg (+9 TO’s) which is 2nd best including playoff games for a 30-19 avg score. SF went 6-3 vs winning teams (+21 ypg, +2 TO’s) with a 24.2-24 avg score. Both teams have played tough schedules this year (BAL #3, SF #6) but SF’s record vs non-division and winning teams gets them the nod here.
SLIGHT EDGE: 49ers
TURF/SITE
New Orleans is widely regarded as one of the top cities for the Super Bowl due to the culture, weather and entertainment (Mardi Gras season). This will be touted as the crown jewel in the recovery from Hurricane Katrina and will showcase how the city has and hasn’t rebuilt itself. This will be the 10th Super Bowl for NO which ties Miami for the most for a city. The Mercedes-Benz Superdome has a 73,208 seat capacity and has $85 million in upgrades since 2010 with FieldTurf. That plays to the Ravens as it’s their native surface but SF played here in late November so they will have a better grasp of the logistics for this event. Both teams receive 17.5% of the tickets. One-third of that goes to each teams suite owners, another to season ticket holders in a lottery system with the rest divided amongst coaches, players and staff. The hosting team gets 5% of the tickets, 30% is shared by the other 30 NFL teams while the NFL gives the other 30% to big ticket sponsors for promotions and as a reward. Tickets to SB XLVII range from $2,500 to $18,995 which is about a 10% increase over last year’s. The 49ers get the edge here as this was the site of Kaepernick’s 1st road start, they will be used to the crowd noise/sight lines and the Ravens haven’t been here since late October 2006.
EDGE: 49ers
49ers #10 OFFENSE VS RAVENS #18 DEFENSE
The 49ers are a prime example of fortune favoring the brave when they replaced Alex Smith with Kaepernick due to a concussion. Smith had a 19-5-1 record under Jim Harbaugh but the underlying feeling was that the defense had carried the team and that something was missing. SF had logged 196 ypg passing (69%) with a 13-5 ratio with Smith but only a mediocre 7.2 ypa. SF avg’d 366 ypg (+4 TO’s) with a 24-14 avg score. When Kaepernick destroyed the Bears on MNF in his 1st NFL start, SF played the “staying with the hot hand” card, phasing him in as the starter. In Kaepernick’s 9 starts he has avg’d 224 ypg (63%) with a 13-4 ratio and 8.2 ypa which is quite good. Equipped with 4.53 speed, Kaepernick’s mobility makes his launch point unpredictable and when under pressure he’s not afraid to take it upfield. SF’s pass attack has shifted from TE Vernon Davis being the prime target (37 rec, 15.6 with Smith to 12 rec, 12.3) to Michael Crabtree (33 rec, 12.8 with Kaepernick). What San Fran lacks right now in the passing game is depth as the 49ers lost last year’s Super Bowl hero Manningham to a torn ACL and while Moss has been a solid addition in the locker room the 49ers have used him sparingly (42% snaps). Gore has been the one constant for SF over the last 8 years and while he’s getting more rest the last 2 years his power style of play typifies how SF wants to play. The strength of the offense is the OL which was the best in 2012 allowing 18 sacks with Kaepernick and 159 ypg rush (4.9) as well. They will be sorely tested by an improved Baltimore defense that has allowed just a single 100 yard rusher in 19 playoff games (Arian Foster, 132 yds). The Ravens have only allowed 92 ypg (3.3) in their 20 playoff games with 100 ypg (3.7) in their last 5 games this year. Baltimore’s #18 defense is the lowest since 2002 as 13 starters/key defenders missed a combined 53 games this year with just 2 players starting all 16 games this year (Reed, CB Cary Williams). However, over their last 6 games they have the #12 defense as they adjusted to the injuries schematically and got healthier. While Lewis will command the headlines, the studs of the LB’s this year are Ellerbe and Kruger who have been the backbone of the pass rush this year. With Suggs (torn biceps/Achilles) at less than 100%, offenses have had much more success at slowing him down. On the DL Ngata and Pernell McPhee have been solid vs the run. Baltimore has quietly been very stout vs the pass since the Denver loss allowing just 224 ypg (56%) with a 6-5 ratio and incredible 5.47 ypa! Baltimore has played a ton of snaps their last 3 games (256 not counting pre-snap penalties) but the bye wipes all that out. The Ravens have a huge experience edge here and bring a proven scheme to the show. San Francisco has youth and the best OL in the NFL on their side. Lost in all this is that we have a young QB in his 10th start vs Ed Reed who confounds the best QB’s in the NFL and I’ll call this a draw here.
EDGE: NONE
RAVENS #15 OFFENSE VS 49ers #3 DEFENSE
Over the last 2 years the 49ers defense has missed just 8 games and will have 10 of last year’s 11 starters here. Parys Haralson landed on IR prior to the season but Aldon Smith (played 50% of snaps last year) started all 16 games in his place this year. Justin Smith has been one of the league’s elite 3-4 DE’s. He is the key cog here and it’s no surprise that since his injury that Aldon Smith has zero sacks. San Fran has one of the older DL fronts and they don’t rotate out much which would be a problem for most teams. However, the strength of the 49ers is that they flat out have the best LB unit in the NFL the last 2 years and have them under contract for the next 3 years. SF’s front 7 is so stout they have held foes to under 100 yards rushing in 12 games this year with a 69 ypg avg (3.3). While they are 12th with 38 sacks this year, their 19-14 ratio with just 6.1 ypa in the regular season is the 6th best opposing QBR this year. While they gave up big yards in the playoffs they held Rodgers to 96 yards in the 1H and Ryan to 125 yards in the 2H keeping both out of rhythm. That will be key vs Flacco who has avg’d 246 ypg (58%) with a 15-2 ratio in his last 7 playoff games. Under Caldwell, Flacco is avg 251 ypg (57%) with a 12-2 ratio as Baltimore has gone from 344 ypg/25.5 ppg to 407 ypg/26.2 ppg. Torrey Smith has benefited since the change (15 rec, 20.0), which has allowed Boldin and TE Pitta to take advantage of LB mismatches. The Ravens have also diversified the run game a bit with Bernard Pierce stepping up (381 yds, 6.0) since the Denver loss with Rice being more of a weapon in the passing game this year. The biggest problem for BAL is that they’ve gone thru 5 different OL combos this year and also for as solid as Matt Birk/Marshal Yanda have been, Michael Oher has regressed. Flacco has logged a 19-6 ratio this year when under pressure/blitzed and is used to physical 3-4 schemes from playing the Steelers. SF’s continuity and LB unit has me giving them a slight edge in this matchup.
SLIGHT EDGE: 49ers
SPECIAL TEAMS
Last year, the 49ers special teams cost them a Super Bowl berth which was even more painful as they had my #1 special teams unit. This year the Ravens have my #1 unit, despite their issues at Denver, being our most improved special teams shooting up from 29th for 2011. With John Harbaugh having cut his teeth with Philadelphia as a special teams coach this isn’t much of a surprise. The Ravens quietly added Corey Graham who earned a berth to the 2011 Pro Bowl for his 3rd phase work with Chicago and Jacoby Jones after Houston waived him. Graham along with LB Brendan Ayanbedejo set up the coverage units finishing 7th on PR’s and 13th on KR’s. Jones was electric on KR’s this year as his 30.7 avg led the NFL but BAL was avg on PR’s at 9.4. Sam Koch had a solid year with a 40.8 net with 35% of his punts inside the 20. SF’s return units led by Ted Ginn were very formidable as they finished 10th on PR’s and 12th in KR’s on the year. Defensively they crushed in PR coverage (4th) holding foes to just 6.9 yards. However, they were torched on KR’s allowing 26.9 yards (31st) and David Akers has been very tough to watch this year while Baltimore’s Justin Tucker was very reliable (14-17 from 40+). Both teams have quality returners but the Ravens get the edge due to KR coverage and the consistency of their kicker in 2012.
EDGE: RAVENS
COACHING
Jim and John Harbaugh already made NFL history by being the first set of brothers to serve as head coaches in the NFL. Jim Harbaugh (SF) had a 14 year career as a QB with 5 different teams in the NFL ending with Carolina in 2001. He’s best known for turning around Stanford prior to taking over for the 49ers in 2011 and turning them around despite not having an offseason program due to the strike. John Harbaugh (BAL) was a college DB who worked his way up the college coaching ranks on offense early before focusing on special teams which helped him land with Philly from 1998-2007. San Fran’s special teams coach is Brad Seely who is one of the top 5 STC’s in the league. DC Vic Fangio was Baltimore’s LB coach from 2006-09 before heading to Stanford to run their defense. Greg Roman runs the offense but Jim Harbaugh splits the play calling duties. The Ravens Don Pees took over as LB coach when Fangio departed and was promoted to DC for 2012. Jim Caldwell spent 3 years as the Colts OC and has incorporated some aspects of Peyton’s style into the system here. Due to the massive amount of familiarity here its impossible to give an edge to either side here.
EDGE: NONE
PAST HISTORY MATCHUP/INTANGIBLES
While Baltimore beat San Francisco 16-6 last year on Thanksgiving it’s not really a quality past history review. The 49ers were off a pair of surprisingly physical games vs NYG/ARZ and were travelling cross country on a short week vs a Ravens squad off a home game vs CIN. It was 6-6 after the half and SF took up half the 3Q on a 13 play drive settling for a FG that they missed. Baltimore responded with a 16 play drive that took the other half up scoring a td then held SF to a total of 1 FD and 9 yards on their 3 drives for the rest of the game. Baltimore ended with a 253-170 yd edge and logged 9 sacks vs a tired OL. Rice only had 59 yards rush (2.8) while Flacco had 161 yards (65%) with the td on the day. Gore was able to churn out 39 yards (2.8) on the evening but the most impressive stat was Baltimore converting 7-of-15 third downs. Both teams will be rather healthy here with lots of quality leadership. Baltimore has the edge vs a fairly inexperienced QB but they’ve only played 1 mobile QB and that was Griffin. San Fran has a bit more speed and defensively are at their prime. The familiarity level here keeps me from giving either team the edge here once again.
EDGE: NONE
CONCLUSION
The Super Bowl is an isolated game and the bye week affords the media to dissect every aspect of the contest. The extra time for the coaching staffs also allows them to go into every detail. Offense wins games but defense wins championships and these two teams definitely feature strong defenses that when push comes to shove lead each of their teams. On the other side of the ball, you have two offenses that have adjusted their scheme midway thru the season and have had great success. The reason I am going with the 49ers here is much like the college game with Alabama’s OL, the most dominant unit in the NFL this year has been the San Francisco OL and I think late in the 4Q, they will help put together a drive that ultimately leads to the 49ers improving their record to a perfect 6-0 in Super Bowls!

The Falcons snared a 30-28 win at Seattle in 2011 which was the last meeting. Atlanta had a 27-7 lead after the initial drive of the 2H but the Seahawks rallied and missed a 61 yd FG as the game ended. Ryan had 291 yards (67%) with a td while they held RB Lynch to just 24 yards (3.0). Atlanta hasn’t won a playoff game since 2004 but is 7-1 at home this year where they are -10 ypg (+7 TO’s). They have a massive situational edge at home for the second straight game off a bye vs a Seattle team that just flew out to Washington. The Seahawks are 5-4 on the road this year (+37 ypg, +0 TO). The Falcons are 5-1 vs the common foes of Carolina/Washington/Dallas/Arizona/Detroit with a +15 yards per game mark (-3 TO’s) and a 25-21 average score. Seattle went 3-2 against those foes holding a +54 yards per game entry (+1 TO) and 21-16 average score.

Moving to a rookie 3rd round QB over the touted FA pickup was a surprise move by Seattle but it’s paid off. From the New England game on, Wilson has averaged 209 ypg (65%) with a stunning 21-4 ratio. Against top 10 defenses he has averaged 180 ypg (60%) with a 12-4 ratio thanks to a stellar power run game behind Lynch who had ten regular season 100 yard rushing games this year. Despite this being the first 16 game season for WR Sidney Rice, not having a 1,000 yd receiver is more a function of Wilson spreading the ball around and the success of Lynch. Seattle has started 6 different OL combinations this year but LT Okung earned his Pro Bowl berth as he was the only LT to not allow a sack this year. Seattle’s Tampa-2 style defense is built around lean, quick twitch defenders that have missed just 7 games via starters with 4 coming via CB Browner’s 4 game suspension as the Seahawks have the league’s best secondary. The LB unit is solid with Wagner and Hill locking down the middle and they are very mobile. Seattle’s DL is designed to be aggressive and they accept giving up yards on the ground (4.5 ypc) to get to the QB (#14 sacks by). SEA has my #9 special teams unit this year thanks to one of the best returners in the league, Leon Washington.

The Falcons took a big risk replacing their OC/DC prior to the year but it has paid off very well. The offense now goes through Matt Ryan instead of supporting him. Ryan put up career numbers across the board but faced just 3 teams that finished with a top 10 defense averaging 301 ypg (68%) with a 10-3 ratio (3-1 record). Ryan has helped White and Jones become Atlanta’s first 1,100 yard receiving tandem since 1998 with Gonzalez being 70 yards short of Atlanta’s first 1,000 yard trio since 1995. Atlanta’s run game hasn’t had much if any impact this year as RB Michael Turner has slowed down (3.6). The Falcons’ OL has been ultra-reliable with 4 of 5 linemen playing 98.7% of the snaps this year as they had their fifth year of under 30 sacks allowed. While Atlanta’s #24 defense is a bit misleading (#5 in defensive points/#2 in defensive ypp) they have struggled for sacks (#27) and have been mauled vs the run (4.8 ypc, 29th). On the flip side, Atlanta’s 14-20 ratio was the best in the NFL this year with a very formidable secondary when healthy. Overall, DC Nolan has this defense playing better than the sum of its parts on all levels. Despite a strong year by Bosher (40.7 net, 37% of his punts inside the 20), Atlanta has my #16 special teams unit due to average return units.

Seattle’s youth is a big edge here as they can recover faster than other teams coming off back-to-back Eastern time zone games. The only team the Falcons truly dominated was the Giants off back-to-back primetime games and a win against the worst defense in NFL history. Seattle is playing with house money while Atlanta will face unrelenting pressure. I’ll go with the Seahawks here.

New England blasted Houston on Monday Night Football this year, 42-14 at home. New England had a 419-279 yard edge when Houston conceded defeat mid-4Q by putting Yates on the field down 42-7. Brady only had 296 yards (70%) with 1 td as the Patriots defense held Foster to 46 yards rushing (3.1) and rattled Schaub (232, 59%, 1 int). Houston had rattled off 6 straight wins and Belichick used the Texans varsity jackets pictures as motivation. The Texans went 6-2 on the road this year with a +45 yard per game margin (+7 TO’s) and 23-21 average score. New England went 6-2 at home this year (+57 ypg, +5 TO’s). Both teams played similar schedules with the only difference being Houston catching the NFC North while New England had the NFC West.

Houston continues to work off the ground game of Arian Foster who has over 1,200 yards in each of the last 3 seasons. Matt Schaub only has a 61-30 ratio over that time but it has minimized Andre Johnson’s wear and tear. Owen Daniels is at the top of the second tier of receiving TE’s as the Texans spread the ball around after that. Walter is a decent, but not a standout, #3 option but the lack of impact from rookies Martin and Posey (16 receptions, 10.8) is disappointing. Houston has a borderline top 10 OL provided RT Newton is healthy. JJ Watt’s historic season for Houston (80+ plays at/behind the line of scrimmage) makes the Texans defense what it is. He has 15 more sacks than the starting OLB’s (Connor Barwin/Brooks Reed) which is unheard of in a 3-4. The rest of the DL is solid but more valuable in run support. The Texans have a very formidable CB tandem with Jonathan Joseph/Kareem Jackson but it is a concern that they gave up a 16-4 ratio in the last 7 regular season games. Houston has my #23 special teams unit as they have been poor on both sides of KR’s.

For the fourth time in his last 5 years of full starts, Tom Brady has finished with 24 more td’s than int. New England’s ability to effortlessly shift from the spread, to 2 TE, to a power running game (3 out of 4 years with a top 12 rush offense) sets them apart from other offenses. Stevan Ridley is the first 1,200 yard rusher for the Patriots since Corey Dillon in 2004 and he hasn’t fully grown into the system yet. New England has the best 2 TE set in the NFL with Rob Gronkowski being a stronger receiving TE and Aaron Hernandez being more well rounded. Wes Welker is the first player in NFL history with five 100 reception seasons and Brandon Lloyd has been a strong, but not dominant, addition. The OL has been dinged a bit due to injuries to Mankins/Vollmer but it’s still a physical system oriented unit. New England’s #25 defense ranking is wildly misleading as they are 4th in yards per point and tied Belichick’s record with 41 takeaways. Vince Wilfork continues to be the fulcrum of the DL with rookie Chandler Jones making a strong impression. The strength of the defense is versatility with Jerrod Mayo being a rare three down LB. New England’s secondary is a concern but picking up Aqib Talib was a great move and Devin McCourty has been stellar moving around. The Patriots’ #17 special teams ranking is due to a mediocre net average by Zoltan Mesko who doesn’t get to boom it like other punters but New England has excellent coverage/return units.

Brady gets to face a defense that he knows while Schaub and Foster have been here and will be better prepped. Clearly this game will not resemble the blowout that we saw on MNF earlier this year but Houston’s playoff inexperience and Belichick, with extra rest, plays right into the Patriots hands.

The 49ers pulled an opening week upset beating GB 30-22 at Lambeau. SF quickly shut down GB’s attempt at a run game (45 yds, 3.2) and by forcing them to be one-dimensional they were able to bottle up the passing game. 107 of Rodgers 303 yds came midway thru the 4Q after GB was down 30-15. Six of GB’s 1st 7 drives ended in punts. SF went 6-1-1 at home TY with a +105 ypg (#2) and +4 TO’s mark for a 25-14 avg score. GB went 4-4 on the road for +15 ypg (+3 TO’s) but a 25-24.5 avg score. Rodgers has logged 281 ypg (67%) w/a 22-3 ratio on the road TY however.

After a slow start Rodgers has dominated the passing game again finishing w/less than 10 int in 3 of the L4Y (11 in 2010). The only bad thing that can be said about the Packers off is that the run game is once again very limited. Part is due to Rodgers (8 100+ QBR’s TY), part is due to design (often just an extra pass blk’r) and part is due to injury (Benson IR foot). Even though GB lacks a 1,000 yd receiver TY this is still a top 3 unit in depth/talent. GB’s biggest weakness on offense is the OL which has had 4 diff OL combo’s the final 7 gms. Despite being one of the most beat up def’s GB’s #11 rank is a sign of depth and the fact they’ve only played 1 team w/a top 10 off in the L10 gms (DET). Raji is the cornerstone of the DL, Matthews for LB’s but GB is also quite deep in the secondary. The fact they allow 4.5 ypc is due to 2 strong gms by Peterson and inj’s up front. They are better than their #11 pass def rankings (#4 def QBR) as they allow just 55% comp w/a 6.7 ypa (7th). GB has my #16 spec tms unit thanks to Randall Cobb on returns.

Prior to Kaepernick, SF avg’d 366 ypg/215 ypg pass/23.7 ppg. Since he took over it’s 356 ypg/230 ypg pass/26.3 ppg but he is much more aggressive with the ball as SF uses more of the Pistol off. Gore has quietly logged his 2nd str year of 1,200 yds rush thanks to the best OL in the NFL TY giving up 1 sk every 16 pass att’s w/Kaepernick vs 1 every 8.4 w/Smith. Crabtree has finally taken to being a #1 WR here and is the 1st WR w/1,000 yds rec s/’03 while Davis has admitted he’s not as comfortable w/a new QB at the helm. Losing Manningham (knee) creates an unknown as it’s a ? to how much gas Moss has left. SF’s OL is one of 3 to start every game together TY (MIN/NYJ). SF’s D ret’d all 11 st’rs from LY’s #4 unit and they didn’t miss a start until Justin Smith tore a tricep. He is the key cog in the system setting up the majority of Aldon Smith’s 19.5 sks to a stop unit that all’d 91 ypg (3.6) rush w/him in the lineup. The 49ers also have the best LB unit in the NFL w/Aldon, Willis and Bowman locked up longterm. They own the #5 pass D and their 6.1 ypa is 2nd best. SF has my #10 ST’s TY despite Akers struggles.

While SF did catch GB by surprise in the 1st matchup the Packers were focused on installing a run game all preseason (and most of Sept) to the detriment of the offense. This time around GB is healthier (DE Justin Smith, Manningham IR), knows what they are in for and have a big experience edge with Rodgers over Kaepernick. SF is a very formidable foe esp w/its OL but GB’s playoff exp particularly at the QB pos gives them the final edge here.

College football fans and TV executives couldn’t have asked for a better matchup here as Bama tries to stamp its legacy as a dynasty with 3 titles in 4 years while Notre Dame tries to recapture its former glory. The Irish are 5-1 vs the Tide but they have not met since ‘87. They did meet twice in bowl games with the title on the line and ND won both including the ‘74 Orange, 13-11. Bama HC Saban is looking for his 4th title as HC which would cement his status as one of the all-time greats and he is 7-6 overall in bowls (3-0 in title games) including 4-1 SU/ATS at Bama. The Tide have not played here since ‘99. Kelly, in his 3rd season, has the Irish undefeated after playing a schedule that has had them log more than 9,000 miles from Ireland to LA and from Norman to Boston. ND, gunning for its first National Title since ‘88, is making its 1st BCS bowl appearance since ‘06 (0-3 in BCS bowls) and has never played in Sun Life Stadium (5x at Orange Bowl). After an NCAA record 9 game bowl losing streak, ND has gone 2-1 in its last 3 post season appearances and Kelly is 3-2 in bowls including an Orange Bowl loss in ‘08.The two have one common opponent in UM as the Tide beat the Wolves 41-14 in the opener (outgaining them 431-269) while ND won 13-6 thanks to 6 UM TO’s (only game all year ND was outgained). ND did play 10 bowl opponents outscoring them by an avg of 26-12 (+181 ypg) while Bama played 7 bowl foes outscoring them by an avg of 32-16 (+77 ypg).

The Tide’s #15 offense is driven by QB McCarron who led the NCAA in pass eff with a 26-3 ratio. Starting with last year’s championship game, he has become much more than a game manager as the Tide have one of the more balanced attacks (225 ypg run vs 215 pass) in the country. The 1-2 punch at RB features two 1,000 yard rushers including the veteran Lacy (power) being spelled by the super true frosh Yeldon (speed). At WR another frosh, Cooper, easily led the way recording more rec yards than the #2-3 rec’s combined. TE Williams is used mainly in the run game but is a threat at the goal line (3 td’s). The best OL in the country (avg 6’5” 314) with 2 Sr starters paved the way for 5.6 ypc (best in 20+ years) while allowing 7.6% sacks. They have 3 All-Americans while another is a PS#1. The Tide D which has been the main reason for their great success over the last 5 years is #1 again but doesn’t have the star power that past Bama teams featured. NG Williams leads a DL that has great size and depth but lacks a true pass rusher. Their LB’s are #1, #2 and #3 in tackles but Mosley had 43 more than any other player. The secondary features Thorpe winner CB Milliner as the Tide have my #3 pass eff D (166, 54%, 7-17). Last year the ST’s were a liability (#50) but this year they have improved to #13. It starts with short range K Shelley who is perfect from inside 40 while long-range K Foster has 3 FG’s of 50+. P Mandell has a net of 39.2 (#24) while the KR unit avg 24.8 ypr (give up 21.9) and the PR unit avg 10.2 ypr (give up 7.7).

Notre Dame’s 1-2 punch at the RB spot

As with most Kelly teams, the QB position was shuffled around as last year’s starter Rees (suspended opener) was used much like a relief pitcher coming in to lead victories over Purdue, UM and Stanford and started the BYU game as Golson was out with injury. However, it’s been Golson’s show as he has gradually improved his decision-making (7-2 ratio last 4) while the playbook has opened up allowing him to use his legs (-11 rush yards 1st 4 games, 316 yards last 7). ND also features a 1-2 punch at RB in Riddick/Wood and while Wood is more of a home-run threat (6.7), Riddick is more versatile (35 rec). The rec corps is led by Mackey winner Eifert who (all-time rec leader for a ND TE) at 6’6” is a nightmare for opposing D’s. The OL (avg 6’4” 304) excelled paving the way for 203 ypg and ND’s best ypc (5.0) since ‘93 while allowing just 16 sacks (4.5%). Overall ND has my #29 offense. The Irish’s strength, of course, is their #3 D which has allowed just 10 td’s all year (#1 NCAA) and their 27.8 ypp is the best I’ve seen in at least 20 years. It starts with the massive 3-man DL (6’4” 312) led by soph Tuitt who had 12 sacks (most by an underclassmen in ND history) and they give up just 92 rush ypg (3.2) and just 2 rushing td’s ON THE YEAR! The LB corps naturally is led by Heisman finalist Te’o who has had 3 straight 100+ tackle seasons and his 7 int’s are the most by a LB in the NCAA in 12 years. The secondary was a concern coming into the year with 3 new full-time starters including 2 frosh but finished as my #10 pass eff D (194, 59%, 7-16 ratio). The #34 ST’s are led by K Brindza who set a single season school record with 23 FG’s on the year. P Turk avg’d 40.6 (38.0 net) but the return units are mediocre at best.

This clearly is a dream matchup for fans pitting two of college football’s most storied programs. The reason this will be one of the most watched bowl games ever is: you either love the SEC or you hate the SEC. And you either love the Irish or you hate the Irish. These two are similar in that both have solid D’s with great front 7′s, both like to run the football but both are balanced offenses (200 yards rush and pass). Golson has improved all season long and gives Notre Dame a run option out of the QB position. I think whoever has more success passing will get the win here and I like that Nick Saban and AJ McCarron have experience in title games. In my opinion, Alabama is clearly the better team and is used to the grand stage but Notre Dame has the ability to keep it closer than many expect. This undoubtedly will be a great game. Tide cement their dynasty tag becoming only the third team in NCAA history to win three National Titles in a span of 4 years.

This is the second game in NFL history with rookie QB’s at the helm (HOU/CIN last year). The Seahawks youth movement the last 2 years has helped end their road woes (4-4 this year) and they are +20 ypg (-1 TO’s) away this year. Against the common foes of DAL/STL/CAR/MIN they are +60 ypg (+2 TO’s) with a 3-1 record. WAS is -16 ypg at home (+6 TO’s) for a 4-3 mark after losing their first 2. Against the common foes they are 2-2 coming in at -31 ypg (+6 TO’s).

Moving to a rookie 3rd RD QB over the touted FA pickup was a surprise move by SEA but it has paid off. From the NE gm on, Wilson has avg’d 209 ypg (65%) with a stunning 21-4 ratio. Against top 10 D’s he has avg’d 180 ypg (60%) with a 12-4 ratio thanks to a stellar power run game behind Lynch who has ten 100 yd rushing efforts this year. Despite this being the first 16 game season for WR Rice, not having a 1,000 yd receiver is more a function of Wilson spreading the ball around and the success of Lynch. SEA has started 6 different OL combinations this year but LT Okung earned his Pro Bowl berth as he’s the only LT to not allow a sack this year. Seattle’s Tampa-2 style D is built around lean, quick twitch defenders that have missed just 7 games via starters with 4 coming via CB Browner’s 4 game suspension as the Seahawks have the league’s best secondary. The LB unit is solid with Wagner and Hill locking down the middle and they are very mobile. The Seahawks DL is designed to be aggressive and they accept giving up yards on the ground (4.5 ypc) to get to the QB (#14 sacks by). SEA has my #8 ST’s unit this year thanks to one of the best returners in Leon Washington.
Washington paid a steep price for Griffin but it has been more than worth it. His 8 gms of 100+ QBR are the most by a WAS QB since ’91 (Mark Rypien). Griffin is just the 2nd rookie QB selected for to the Pro Bowl (Marino) that isn’t an injury replacement. RB Morris is only the 5th WAS RB to tally 1,300 yds rushing ever. Last year WAS had 8 different OL combinations due to injury but they had the same through the first 14 games which as been vital for both rookies success. The Skins system excels in spreading the ball around as shown in the ydg/ypc totals. Garcon is the most important as the team is 8-1 with him and 1-5 without him with Moss being the slot WR. Prior to the bye WAS allowed 398 ypg and 28 ppg but since then its 361 ypg and 24 ppg as they adjusted to the early season injuries. The sum is greater than the parts for the #30 D that hasn’t been put in bad spots thanks to Griffin. The strength of the D is the LB unit thanks to Fletcher’s leadership and Kerrigan/Jackson improving since the bye. The secondary is a major weak point that has only faced one top 10 off (DAL) since October 7th. WAS has my #24 ST’s unit due to below avg return units.

Washington will be in its second straight playoff setting but I will back Seattle with their superior offense, despite being on the road.