Put in the Magic Number context, the task of the rest of the conference looks even more daunting than suggested by glancing at the REAL Standings.

First, if you consider the ISU and CU games in Lawrence are locks, as I do, the magic number is REALly 3, with six of our own games plus everyone else’s remaining games left to work that number down to zero.

Second, every team starts the season with a magic number of 16 for a share of the championship. In the first eight games, KU, with a little help from our friends, has reduced that number by 11. How unlikely is it that the Hawks will be unable to reduce that number by a factor of 5 in the next eight games? Especially, as noted previously, with the number, for all practical purposes, being 3?

Or put even another way, how likely is it that A&M or k-state will reduce their Magic Number by 10 in 7 games, or that UT or Mizzou will knock theirs down 11 in 8 games.

I was about to write a post giving a theoretical defense of Mr. Gettys: Noting that, looking at the adjusted REAL Standings Tier assignments, the Jayhawks have but one good Road win and six games remaining that are not gimmes (including OU and k-state at Home).

But with the Magic Number at 5 (or 3), and everyone else having plenty of non-gimme games themselves, there REALly is no defense to be had.

Sorry, Reid.

–Mark

Anyone other than Reid Gettys, that is.

I hate to pick on Reid after last year chastising him for a particular Reid-iculous remark, but he leaves me no choice. In Saturday’s KU-Nebraska game, he made two:

• that “this is where you start getting nervous if you’re a Kansas fan” with 44.4 seconds remaining in the game with KU up by nine and Sherron Collins at the line; and
• that there is “no question” that someone can take the Big 12 title away from KU—that the Big 12 is too deep.

As for the first proclamation, NU threw in the towel 12 seconds later.

As for the second, do you REALly think, Reid, that KU will go 2-4 in their remaining games that do not involve Iowa St amd Colorado at Home, AND that UT, K-State, or A&M will go 7-0 (K-State or A&M) or 8-0 (UT or Mizzou)? Both must happen for the Jayhawks to be deprived of all or a share of their sixth straight Big 12 title.

Or, maybe you meant someone else might share the championship with the Jayhawks. Not quite as far-fetched (the difference between KU going 4-4 and 5-3), but still a long-shot.

I mean, I like Reid as much as the next guy—probably more than most next guys. He was an integral component on one of my favorite non-KU teams of all time—in my opinion, the best college basketball team ever to not win a national championship. And he is a smart fellow, being a lawyer and all. And we all make Reid-iculous statements from time to time. But, as they say in that ESPN Radio commercial, “Come ahhhhhhn.”

In fairness, Reid did acknowledge that the Jayhawks are the “prohibitive favorites.” But followed it up by saying, “does that mean they’re going to run away with it? Absolutely not!”

Yes, there is a scenario by which the Hawks could be deprived of the Big 12 title. Or forced to share it.

Is there a reasonable chance it will happen?

Absolutely not!

The No. 1 story of the weekend on the court is, of course, the game that pretty much ended any suspense in the quest for the Big 12 championship: Oklahoma downing UT in Norman.

K-State and Mizzou picked up Road victories over two of the Big 12’s lesser teams, Iowa St and Colorado (see below). Nothing extraordinary there, but, still, no Road win is chopped liver.

In other games, KU, A&M, and Tech all won at Home vs. NU, Baylor, and Okie St.

WEEKEND UPDATE

With every team having played half its conference schedule, it is time to make mid-season adjustments to reflect the teams’ REAL status as revealed by their performance to this point. As often noted, the Tier assignment of each team is the only subjective part of the REAL Standings. After that, it’s look at the schedule and objectively apply the formula.

KU, K-State, and UT remain a notch above the rest of the pack. I will continue to call all three “Contenders,” notwithstanding the fact that, for all practical purposes, the ultimate champion is pretty much set in cement.

Demoting Colorado, Iowa St, and Nebraska to Tier 3 status should not be open to debate.

Oklahoma and Texas Tech were candidates for demotion prior to Saturday’s games. Both did enough, however, to retain their Tier 2 standing.

The Sooners took out UT in an at-risk game in Norman, even with a hobbled Willie Warren, as Tommy Mason-Griffin, the conference’s best freshman, keeps playing like he is not one.

As for Tech, they are either the worst Tier 2 team or the best of the Tier 3 lot. Don’t know if they will ever beat anyone on the Road, but they are good enough in Lubbock to merit the benefit of the doubt.

At the mid-point (roughly) of the Big 12 season:

1. Contenders: KU, K-State, and UT.

2. Competitors: A&M, Baylor, Mizzou, Oklahoma, Okie St, Texas Tech

3. Bottom-feeders: Colorado, Iowa St, Nebraska

February 7, 2010 REAL Big 12 Standings:

1. 13.5-2.5

KU (8-0) Projected L’s: at UT
Losable games: at A&M, at Okie St, at Mizzou

2. 11-5

UT (5-3) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at Mizzou, at Tech, at A&M, at BU

K-State (6-3) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at OU, at Tech

4. 9-7

Mizzou (5-3) Projected L’s: at BU, at K-State,
Losable games: vs. UT, at NU, at ISU vs. KU

5. 8.5-7.5

Texas A&M (6-3) Projected L’s: at Tech, at BU, at OU
Losable games: vs. KU, at ISU, vs. UT

6. 8-8

Baylor (4-4) Projected L’s: at OSU, at OU, at Tech
Losable games: at NU, vs. UT

Oklahoma (4-4) Projected L’s: at OSU, at KU, at UT
Losable games: at CU, vs. K-State

Okie St (4-5) Projected L’s: at UT, at A&M
Losable games: at Iowa St, vs. KU

9. 7-9

Texas Tech (3-5) Projected L’s: at OU, at BU
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. K-State, at NU, at CU

10. 4.5-11.5

Iowa St (2-6) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at KU, at CU, at K-State
Losable games: vs. Okie St, vs. A&M, vs. Mizzou

11. 4-12

Colorado (2-7) Projected L’s: at K-State, at KU, at Mizzou, at NU
Losable games: vs. OU, vs. Tech

12. 3.5-12.5

Nebraska (1-7) Projected L’s: at UT, at K-State, at ISU, at OSU
Losable games: vs. Baylor, vs. Mizzou, vs. Tech,

What to Watch

MONDAY

1. KU at Texas (8:00p.m.)***** (Projected W: Texas)

Not the monster game it was once hyped to be. It is not undefeated No. 1 at undefeated No. 2 in the Game of the Century. With UT having lost 4 of its last six and in rankings free-fall, most of the luster has been lost nationally. What’s more, it is not even a particularly big game conference-wise: the Jayhawks can lose this game and still be in firm control of their destiny.

However, it is a game between the two most talented teams in the Big 12, and both teams will be psyched. Especially UT. As noted with K-State last week, redemption is a stronger motive than validation.

The Jayhawks are the better team, having the edge at the two most important positions, with Collins and Aldrich being more complete players than Balbay and Pittman. And Marcus Morris is doing a pretty fair imitation of Damien James. But Avery Bradley is as good as advertised, and Jordan Hamilton, when making shots, is what KU fans want Xavier to be, a wing who can make his own shot and is a threat to score from anywhere (although, when not making shots, he is a worm hole into which the basketball disappears, never to be seen again until bouncing off the rim).

But UT is at Home. The crowd will be wild, the atmosphere frenzied. If Pittman stays out of foul trouble, if Hamilton (or someone) can make a few shots from the perimeter, it will be a battle royal.

Must see TV.

A scary thought: It could come down to free throws.

TUESDAY

2. Texas Tech at Oklahoma (7:00p.m.)**1/2 (Projected W: OU)

One of the more entertaining games of the year occurred when these teams played in Lubbock. Might be too much to expect Tech to bring their Lubbock game to Norman, but hope springs eternal.

WEDNESDAY

3. Iowa St at Mizzou (6:30p.m.)*1/2 (Projected W: Mizzou)

What if ISU still had Staiger and Wesley Johnson to go along with Brackins and Gilstrap? What, as SNL once asked, if Spartacus had a Piper Cub?

4. Baylor at Nebraska (3:00p.m.)**1/2 (at-risk game for both teams)

Huge game for both teams. Baylor needs this one to stay in the running for a first round bye in the Big 12 tournament. NU just needs a win any time, anywhere, against anyone. And this might be their last REAL chance to grab one for a while, what with trips to Austin and Manhattan in their immediate future.

–Mark

<< Perhaps the most dangerous game remaining on the Jayhawks’ schedule. Colorado frequently (though not always) plays the Hawks tough in Boulder, they are better than usual, and how can KU have anything left in their emotional tank after Saturday night? Tune in and see.
<<

Well, we turned in and saw. And it was dangerous. Especially to anyone with heart problems. The team appeared to lose all of its emotion after jumping to an early 16 point lead, perhaps thinking they could take it easy the rest of the night.

Well, nooooooooo.

Still, somehow they managed to exit Boulder with a W, allowing the Jayhawks to pick up a half game in the REAL Standings and keeping k-state and UT at arm’s length while knocking another game off the schedule.

Not that they picked up any ground on their two main challengers, however, as UT and k-state also picked up half games in the REAL world with Road at-risk victories over Okie St and Nebraska. Both W’s were more easily garnered than KU’s, but guess what: they count the same.

The big Midweek move belongs to the Aggies. They and Mizzou changed places in the REAL Standings as A&M pulled off the rarest of feats: a W on the Road in a Projected Loss contest. Mizzou, meanwhile, can start sweating: It looks like Bubble Time.

The week’s other game went as Projected: Baylor over Iowa St by a lot in Waco. No movement there.

MIDWEEK UPDATE

1. Contenders: KU, K-State, and UT.

2. Competitors: Everyone else.

3. Bottom-feeders: None.

The January 28, 2010 REAL Big 12 Standings:

1. 13.5-2.5

KU (7-0) Projected L’s: at UT
Losable games: at A&M, at Okie St, at Mizzou

2. 11.5-4.5

UT (5-2) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at OU, at Mizzou, at Tech, at A&M, at BU
3. 10.5-5.5

K-State (5-3) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at ISU, at OU, at Tech

4. 8-8

Texas A&M (5-3) Projected L’s: at Tech, at ISU, at BU, at OU
Losable games: vs. KU, vs. UT

5. 7.5-8.5

Baylor (4-3) Projected L’s: at A&M, at NU, at OSU, at OU, at Tech
Losable games: vs. UT

Okie St (4-4) Projected L’s: at Tech, at Iowa St, at UT, at A&M
Losable games: vs. KU

7. 7-9

Mizzou (4-3) Projected L’s: at CU, at BU, at NU, at K-State, at ISU
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. KU

Oklahoma (3-4) Projected L’s: at OSU, at CU, at KU, at UT
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. K-State

9. 6.5-9.5

Iowa St (2-5) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at KU, at CU, at K-State
Losable games: vs. K-State

10. 6-10

Colorado (2-6) Projected L’s: at K-State, at KU, at Mizzou, at NU
Losable games: N/A

Texas Tech (2-5) Projected L’s: at OU, at BU, at NU, at CU
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. K-State

12. 5-11

Nebraska (1-6) Projected L’s: at KU, at UT, at K-State, at ISU, at OSU
Losable games: N/A

What to Watch

SATURDAY

1. Okie St at Texas Tech (12:30p.m.)** (Projected W: Tech)

Okie St is 0-2 since it captured everyone’s fancy with a Road win in Manhattan. That game is looking worse and worse for k-state as time goes on.

2. k-state at Iowa St (1:00p.m.)*** (at-risk game for both teams)

Away from the Octagon, k-state has the Road court advantage. Hey, their record is better on the Road than at the OOD.

3. Mizzou at Colorado (2:00p.m.)*** (Projected W: Colorado)

If Mizzou wants to make a run for a first round bye in the Big 12 Money-Grubbing Tournament, they must atone for Wednesday night’s loss in Columbia by making up ground on the Road. It should be apparent that CU will not just roll over and let them have one. Mizzou’s season is officially on the brink.

4. Baylor at Texas A&M (3:00p.m.)***1/2 (Projected W: A&M)

Most intriguing game of the weekend. By Saturday night, one of these teams will have the inside track for a first round bye in K.C.

5. Texas at Oklahoma (3:00p.m.)*** (at-risk game for both teams)

Will Willie will the Sooners to victory? Will he?

Will Jordan Hamilton stake his claim as the top freshman in the Big 12 and move UT back into REAListic contention for at least a co-championship?

It’s the Sooners’ only chance to win a game in a sport that matters this year vs. their Red River Rivals.

6. Nebraska at KU (5:00p.m.)* (Projected W: KU)

There are not many games that can be taken for granted in this conference. Meet the exception. And it comes at a good time, allowing the Jayhawks to recharge their batteries before heading to Austin.

–Mark

Or, to paraphrase`Billy Packer, “This season is OVAH.”

Barring something bizarre occurring, Kansas has a stranglehold on at least a share of its sixth consecutive Big 12 conference championship.

Unless you have been in a coma, you are aware that there was Major movement in the REAL Standings on Saturday. Two contenders lost at Home: one of them (K-State) to another (KU). The other (Texas) to a second tier team (Baylor).

As a result, K-State and Texas can no longer win the Big 12 championship. KU will have to lose it. Even the Jayhawks’ game in Austin is irrelevant for big 12 title purposes as long as KU takes care of business elsewhere. UT could prevail at Home on February 8, but still trail the Jayhawks by two games in the REAL Standings: one game in the Newspaper Standings (2 current losses to 1) and another by virtue of having six at-risk games remaining on its schedule, as opposed to KU’s four.

The other four Saturday games resulted in no movement among the Tier Two teams, as the Home teams (Mizzou, Iowa St, Nebraska, and Texas A&M) all picked up their Projected W’s (vs. Okie St, Colorado, OU, and Tech).

WEEKEND UPDATE

1. Contenders: KU, K-State, and UT.

2. Competitors: Everyone else.

3. Bottom-feeders: None.

The January 28, 2010 REAL Big 12 Standings:

1. 13-3

KU (5-0) Projected L’s: at UT
Losable games: at CU, at A&M, at Okie St, at Mizzou

2. 11-5

UT (4-2) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at OSU, at OU, at Mizzou, at Tech, at A&M, at BU
3. 10-6

K-State (4-3) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at NU, at ISU, at OU, at Tech

4. 8-8

Mizzou (4-2) Projected L’s: at CU, at BU, at NU, at K-State, at ISU
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. KU

Okie St (4-3) Projected L’s: at Tech, at Iowa St, at UT, at A&M
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. KU

6. 7.5-8.5

Baylor (3-3) Projected L’s: at A&M, at NU, at OSU, at OU, at Tech
Losable games: vs. UT

7. 7-9

Oklahoma (3-4) Projected L’s: at OSU, at CU, at KU, at UT
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. K-State

Texas A&M (4-3) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at Tech, at ISU, at BU, at OU
Losable games: vs. KU, vs. UT

9. 6.5-9.5

Colorado (2-5) Projected L’s: at K-State, at KU, at Mizzou, at NU
Losable games: vs. KU

Iowa St (2-4) Projected L’s: at BU, at Mizzou, at KU, at CU, at K-State
Losable games: vs. K-State

11. 6-10

Texas Tech (2-5) Projected L’s: at OU, at BU, at NU, at CU
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. K-State

12. 5.5-10.5

Nebraska (1-5) Projected L’s: at KU, at UT, at K-State, at ISU, at OSU
Losable games: vs. K-State

What to Watch

MONDAY

1. Texas at Okie St (8:00p.m.)***1/2 (At-risk game for both teams)

UT has lost 3 out of 4 and is fortunate that it is not 4 of 5. If they intend to make a run for second place in conference, or even dream that KU will stumble enough to open up a path to a share of the league championship, they must become more than the James Gang—and they must start Monday night.

TUESDAY

2. k-state at Nebraska (7:00p.m.)*** (at-risk game for both teams)

Nebraska is off the schneid. The big question is whether k-state can put Saturday behind them as they hit the Road, or will they have a repeat of their post UT letdown? They will probably come ready to play. It is well-known that redemption is a more powerful motivator than validation.

WEDNESDAY

2. Iowa St at Baylor (6:30p.m.)*1/2 (Projected W: Baylor)

How does Baylor suck? Let me count the ways. Two men under the basket, no defenders in the vicinity—and they fumble the ball away without even getting a shot off—not a layup, not a dunk, not nothing. They miss four straight FT’s late in regulation with the game on the line. Their best player gets a defensive rebound, then throws a vicious elbow, costing his team possession of the ball and his services for the remainder of the game, being his fifth foul. Down one point in OT, and the ball under their own basket, they throw an inbounds pass into the backcourt where it gets stolen. Ekpe Udoh, their prized transfer from Michigan, goes 0-11 from the field in regulation. They possess a 6 point lead with under a minute remaining in OT—and proceed to commit 2 brain dead turnovers.

Yet, somehow, they win the game against the No. 6 team in the country on the Road.

They are, indeed, a dangerous team. Especially when they pay attention.

The only question here is whether Iowa St will have their attention.

4. KU at Colorado (7:00p.m.)*** (at-risk game for both teams)

Perhaps the most dangerous game remaining on the Jayhawks’ schedule. Colorado frequently (though not always) plays the Hawks tough in Boulder, they are better than usual, and how can KU have anything left in their emotional tank after Saturday night? Tune in and see.

5. Texas A&M at Mizzou (8:00p.m.)*** (Projected W: Mizzou)

This one might REALly be the fastest forty minutes in basketball. Take the Over.

–Mark

Which is the beauty of the REAL Standings. The uninitiated will look at K-State’s last three games and say, “2-1 with a win over the No. 1 ranked team and a win over another Top 25 team on the Road. Pretty damn good.”

Those who know better REALize that these three games have been a net loss in the REAL world, not only to KU (3-0 over the same span and +.5 in the REAL Standings ), but even to Texas, the No. 1 ranked team they vanquished, which is 1-1 over the same stretch with no REAL movement.

In other action, it was win, win, win for the Home team: KU, Okie St, UT, OU, and Colorado over Mizzou, A&M, Tech, Iowa St, and Nebraska.

MIDWEEK UPDATE

1. Contenders: KU, K-State, and UT.

2. Competitors: Everyone else.

3. Bottom-feeders: None.

The January 28, 2010 REAL Big 12 Standings:

1. 12-4

KU (5-0) Projected L’s: at K-State, at UT
Losable games: at CU, at A&M, at Okie St, at Mizzou

UT (4-1) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at OSU, at OU, at Mizzou, at Tech, at A&M, at BU

3. 11-5

K-State (4-2) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at NU, at ISU, at OU, at Tech

4. 8-8

Mizzou (3-2) Projected L’s: at CU, at BU, at NU, at K-State, at ISU
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. KU

Okie St (4-2) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at Tech, at Iowa St, at UT, at A&M
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. KU

6. 7-9

Oklahoma (3-3) Projected L’s: at NU, at OSU, at CU, at KU, at UT
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. K-State

Texas A&M (3-3) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at Tech, at ISU, at BU, at OU
Losable games: vs. KU, vs. UT

9. 6.5-9.5

Baylor (2-3) Projected L’s: at UT, at A&M, at NU, at OSU, at OU, at Tech
Losable games: vs. UT

Colorado (2-4) Projected L’s: at ISU, at K-State, at KU, at Mizzou, at NU
Losable games: vs. KU

Iowa St (1-4) Projected L’s: at BU, at Mizzou, at KU, at CU, at K-State
Losable games: vs. K-State

11. 6-10

Texas Tech (2-4) Projected L’s: at A&M, at OU, at BU, at NU, at CU
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. K-State

12. 5.5-10.5

Nebraska (0-5) Projected L’s: at KU, at UT, at K-State, at ISU, at OSU
Losable games: vs. K-State

What to Watch

SATURDAY

1. Oklahoma at Nebraska (12:30p.m.)**1/2 (Projected W: NU)

Tommy Mason-Griffin gets my vote for Big 12 freshman of the year. He might outscore Nebraska by himself. Willie Who?

2. Okie St at Mizzou (1:00p.m.)*** (Projected W: Mizzou)

Okie St tries for its second straight Saturday upset along I-70.

3. Baylor at Texas (3:00p.m.)*** (Projected W: UT)

Which Baylor team shows up: the one that is worth the price of admission, as in its loss in Lawrence, or the one that sucked out loud Tuesday night in its loss to K-State in Waco?

4. KU at K-State (6:00p.m.)********** (Projected W: K-State)

UT at K-State was a five star game on a four star scale. Make this a 10 Star Special. Biggest game in this rivalry since ’88 in Detroit.

5. Colorado at Iowa St (8:00p.m.)** (Projected W: ISU)

Hilton Magic? It will take some kind of magic to keep the patrons awake for 40 minutes. . .

6. Texas Tech at Texas A&M (8:00p.m.)** (Projected W: A&M)

Tech looked as good as it has all year for 30 minutes Wednesday night in Austin. They need to hope they didn’t waste all their good shots at the driving range, but saved some of them for a game they actually have a chance to win.

–Mark

But that’s the name of the game when you ascend to top of the media’s hype machine. Every opponent will match or exceed your effort—especially when you are coming down from a victory being hailed by your fans and the media as historic. (Although correctly characterized in the REAL Standings as a BfD win at Home.)

What this game showed—if there was any doubt—is that there is still a considerable talent differential between UT, KU and the rest of the conference. And talent will out in games like Saturday’s in Manhattan. The two big guns in the conference win that game at Home. Might have been close, but they win it.

The bottom line, though, is that K-State committed the cardinal REAL Standings sin: they lost at Home. Will they be able to recover? Probably not. If they were loaded with first round NBA talent, maybe they could win out, including at AFH-Lawrence. But, again, they do not possess the level of talent necessary to make that run.

But that is a subjective judgment. Objectively, talent assessment aside, can they overcome the Home Loss and, using the REAL Standings formula, yet be a factor in the race for the title?

Again, probably not. They are now 1.5 REAL Standings games behind both UT and KU. Not only is 1.5 games difficult to make up in the REAL world, it is exponentially more difficult to make up against two teams. Even winning out, including at AFH-L, leaves K-State trailing the winner of the February 8 game in Austin by 1/2 game. Meaning they would still be in need of outside help.

In other words, a long shot.

In the other major REAL Standings development of the weekend, the Jayhawks picked up a W in an at-risk game at Ames, which never seemed to be at risk at all. As a result, KU is now tied with UT atop the REAL Standings, 1.5 games clear of K-State.

In other action, Tech, A&M and Mizzou all picked up Home wins, as projected, vs. OU, CU, and NU. Nothing of REAL import there.

WEEKEND UPDATE

1. Contenders: KU, K-State, and UT.

2. Competitors: Everyone else.

3. Bottom-feeders: None.

The January 24, 2010 REAL Big 12 Standings:

The only subjective part of the REAL Standings is the placement of teams into their proper categories. While it appears there are no teams deserving of the pejorative term “bottom-feeders,” it does look like there are two tiers of competitive teams. If I were to recategorize the teams at this point, I would place K-State, Mizzou, Baylor, A&M, Okie St, and OU in Tier 2(a), and Tech, Iowa St, Colorado, and NU in Tier 2(b). And that might happen at some point—like the midway point of the conference season. Doing so would remove K-State from KU’s Projected Loss column and drop Colorado as a Losable game; for UT, the only effect would be dropping Tech from the Losable game column. Were these adjustments made now, KU would have a Projected Record of 13-3, ½ game in front of UT.

At this point, however, Colorado and Tech on the Road still look like at-risk games to me.

1. 12-4

KU (4-0) Projected L’s: at K-State, at UT
Losable games: at CU, at A&M, at Okie St, at Mizzou

UT (3-1) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at OSU, at OU, at Mizzou, at Tech, at A&M, at BU

3. 10.5-5.5

K-State (3-2) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at BU, at NU, at ISU, at OU, at Tech

4. 8-8

Mizzou (3-1) Projected L’s: at KU, at CU, at BU, at NU, at K-State, at ISU
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. KU

Okie St (3-2) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at Tech, at Iowa St, at UT, at A&M
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. KU

6. 7-9

Baylor (2-2) Projected L’s: at UT, at A&M, at NU, at OSU, at OU, at Tech
Losable games: vs. KU, vs. UT

Oklahoma (2-3) Projected L’s: at NU, at OSU, at CU, at KU, at UT
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. K-State

Texas A&M (3-2) Projected L’s: at Okie St, at Mizzou, at Tech, at ISU, at BU, at OU
Losable games: vs. KU, vs. UT

9. 6.5-9.5

Colorado (1-4) Projected L’s: at ISU, at K-State, at KU, at Mizzou, at NU
Losable games: vs. KU

Iowa St (1-3) Projected L’s: at OU, at BU, at Mizzou, at KU, at CU, at K-State
Losable games: vs. K-State

11. 6-10

Texas Tech (2-3) Projected L’s: at UT, at A&M, at OU, at BU, at NU, at CU
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. K-State

12. 5.5-10.5

Nebraska (0-4) Projected L’s: at CU, at KU, at UT, at K-State, at ISU, at OSU
Losable games: vs. K-State

WHAT TO WATCH

MONDAY

1. Mizzou at KU (8:00p.m.)**** (Projected W: KU)

Don’t look now, but Mizzou is perfectly positioned to not only stake its claim as a contender, but to even take the inside track to the Big 12 title. If they somehow win in AFH Monday night, they would move into the Contender category and have no Projected losses, because they get both KU and UT at Home later in the year. Their five remaining Road games would all be Losable, not projected L’s, for a Projected Record of 12.5-3.5, a full 1.5 games ahead of KU and ½ game in front of UT. Meaning the Hawks would go from Projected co-champions to being on life support in 40 minutes. So forget February 8 for now. This is the game.

TUESDAY

2. K-State at Baylor (7:00p.m.)***1/2 (At risk game for both teams)

K-State would have been better off switching the dates of this game and the one vs. Okie St. A loss on the Road at least gets a Road game off the schedule. Then, they could have recharged and been a bit more ready for the Cowboys at Home.

This game will come down to three point shooting, rebounding, and the Home Court. Baylor appears to have the advantage in all three areas. K-State can do nothing about one of them. They will need to win the other two, one of them convincingly, to walk out of Waco upright.

WEDNESDAY

3. Texas A&M at Okie St (6:30p.m.)***1/2 (Projected W: Okie St)

Tag. You’re it, Cowboys.

4. Texas Tech at Texas (8:00p.m.)**1/2 (Projected W: UT)

Fuhgeddaboutit! Given a choice between betting on Mike Leach coaching in Lubbock again or Tech winning this game, I will go with Leach. The only thing mildly interesting about this contest will be the point spread. I would take no fewer than 15 points. Might even pass on that. . .

5. Iowa St at Oklahoma (8:00p.m.)** (Projected W: OU)

Who has been more sensational this week: Lacedarius Dunn, James Anderson, or Tommy Mason-Griffin? I would watch this game just to see if M-G can duplicate his effort against Tech with Willie Warren back in the lineup. If so, OU may yet be a force to be reckoned with. . .

6. Nebraska at Colorado (8:00p.m.)** (Projected W: Colorado)

Not quite a “bottom-feeder” game, but as close as you will find in the Big 12 this year.

–Mark

Those who know better REALize that Monday night’s game was sound (a lot of sound) and fury (a lot of fury), but what it signified was—Nothing. A lot of nothing.

Repeat after me, Jason and Jason and Blair, et al.: Championships are won on the Road. They can be lost at Home. But they are never won at Home. They are won on the Road.

With that in mind, nothing of substance happened in the Big 12 in the five midweek games.

Zero. Zip. Nada.

Nothing.

K-State, A&M, Texas Tech, Okie St, and KU all won at Home. Big freakin’ Deal.

Texas, OU, Iowa St, Colorado, and Baylor all lost on the Road. Again, BfD.

MIDWEEK UPDATE

1. Contenders: KU, K-State, and UT.

2. Competitors: Everyone else.

3. Bottom-feeders: None.

The January 10, 2010 REAL Big 12 Standings:

1. 12-4

UT (3-1) Projected L’s: None

Losable games: at OSU, at OU, at Mizzou, at Tech, at A&M, at BU

2. 11.5-4.5

KU (3-0) Projected L’s: at K-State, at UT

Losable games: at ISU, at CU, at A&M, at Okie St, at Mizzou

K-State (3-1) Projected L’s: at KU

Losable games: at BU, at NU, at ISU, at OU, at Tech

4. 8-8

Mizzou (2-1) Projected L’s: at KU, at CU, at BU, at NU, at K-State, at ISU

Losable games: vs. UT, vs. KU

5. 7-9

Baylor (2-2) Projected L’s: at UT, at A&M, at NU, at OSU, at OU, at Tech

Losable games: vs. KU, vs. UT

Iowa St (1-2) Projected L’s: at OU, at BU, at Mizzou, at KU, at CU, at K-State

Losable games: vs. KU, vs. k-state

Oklahoma (2-1) Projected L’s: at A&M, at Tech, at NU, at OSU, at CU, at KU, at UT

Losable games: vs. UT, vs. K-State

Okie St (2-2) Projected L’s: at K-State, at Mizzou, at Tech, at Iowa St, at UT, at A&M

Losable games: vs. UT, vs. KU

Texas A&M (1-2) Projected L’s: at Okie St, at Mizzou, at Tech, at ISU, at BU, at OU

Losable games: vs. KU, vs. UT

10. 6.5-9.5

Colorado (1-3) Projected L’s: at A&M, at ISU, at K-State, at KU, at Mizzou, at NU

Losable games: vs. KU

11. 6-10

Texas Tech (1-3) Projected L’s: at UT, at A&M, at OU, at BU, at NU, at CU

Losable games: vs. UT, vs. K-State

12. 5.5-10.5

Nebraska (0-3) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at CU, at KU, at UT, at K-State, at ISU, at OSU

Losable games: vs. K-State

What to Watch

SATURDAY

1. Colorado at A&M (12:30p.m.)**1/2 (Projected W: A&M)

Colorado still looking for the elusive conference Road W. A game A&M can scarcely afford to lose and stay firmly in the mix for one of the Big 12’s numerous at-large bids in March.

2. KU at Iowa St (1:00p.m.) ***1/2 (At risk game for both teams)

Everyone knows about Hilton Magic and how even Danny couldn’t win there. Right? The Hawks have recently won there a lot. Still a dangerous place—even if Staiger has left the building. And the country. Auf Wiedersehn, Lucca.

3. Texas at UConn (3:00p.m.) ****

Is the Saturday after UT’s first loss the best time for UConn to catch them? Or the worst? One thing’s for sure: The crowd won’t faze UT. They have now been there, done that.

4. UMass at Baylor (3:00p.m.) ***

Can Baylor maintain the level of play the Bears displayed in Lawrence? If so, it will be a long night for the Massachussetsans, and an entertaining one for the fans in Waco.

5. Okie St at K-State (3:00p.m.) ***

Dangerous, dangerous game for K-State. If they are still basking in the glory of winning a game they were expected to win, Okie St could sneak up on them. K-State now joins the ranks of the hunted. It will be a little more difficult henceforth to win games by simply out-working the opponent—no matter how hard Frank Martin tries to burn through their competitive souls with his heat vision.

As George C. Scott once warned: “A slave stood behind the conqueror holding a golden crown and whispering in his ear a warning: that all glory is fleeting.” We’ll see if this glory fleets in five days, or if k-state caught a break by being able to gradually come back to earth in the comfort and security of Home.

6. Nebraska at Mizzou (5:00p.m.) **1/2

Mizzou tries to stay within 22 games of the Jayhawks.

7. Oklahoma at Texas Tech (7:00p.m.) **1/2

What can you say about this game? Other than, “There’s the computer lab, where Adam James used to bench press servers in the dark”?

–Mark

To set the table for those unfamiliar with the REAL Standings concept, here is the pre-season 2010 version:

For REAL Standings newbies, they not intended to be predictive in nature, although it sometimes works out that way. Last year, for example, when the national consensus was that KU would have trouble hanging with UT and OU, the pre-season REAL Standings projected KU and Oklahoma to finish in a flat-footed tie at 12.5-3.5, both ahead of UT by a full game. You remember, of course, how that turned out.

What the REAL Standings does is indicate which team or teams are in the most advantageous position to win the conference championship without regard to their current record as shown in the newspaper or on your web page. It assesses where teams truly stand in relation to each other, taking into account who they have played and where and who and where they have yet to play. This is especially helpful in an unbalanced schedule setup, as most conferences—including the Big 12–now have, as opposed to the days when every Big 8 or SWC team played an identical schedule consisting of home and away games with every other conference opponent.

The premise of the REAL Standings is that championships are won by:

1. Winning EVERY game that a champion should win: i.e., all Home games and all games against the league’s bottom-feeders; and

2. Winning the most losable games—i.e., Road games vs. other contenders and competitive teams—with Road wins vs. a contender being “Special.”

In the REAL Standings, each contender is projected to win all Home games and all games against the conference’s bottom-feeders; to lose all Road games versus other contenders; and to be at-risk (i.e., assigned .5 W and .5 L) for all Road games against those teams that are competitive enough to be dangerous, even for a contender, on their Home court.

Second tier teams (i.e., the competitors), are projected to win their Home games vs. their peers and third tier teams; to lose their Road games vs. contenders and their peers; and to be at risk at Home vs. contenders and on the Road vs. the bottom-feeders.

Third tier teams are projected to lose every game except Home games vs. second tier teams (which are counted as at-risk games) and other third tier teams (which are projected W’s).

The only subjective factor in the REAL standings is identifying the contenders, the competitors, and the bottom-feeders. I usually base this on my own observations, with some consideration given to polls and computer rankings, but remain open to changing a team’s status as the season progresses if actual results demonstrate that one of the contenders REALly isn’t, or that one of the others teams should be taken more seriously. Last year, for instance, Baylor started the season as the projected third place team at 12-4, with Mizzou projected in their customary sixth place position (actually, tied for sixth) at 7.5-8.5. The status of both was adjusted (in opposite directions) as time revealed their true status.

THE 2010 PRE-SEASON REAL STANDINGS

My Pre-season assessment of the Big 12 teams is:

1. Contenders: KU, K-State, and UT. Of course. One non-conference loss between the three. Impressive wins by all three. Subjectively, my assessment is that k-state is a notch below the other two, but they have the advantage of getting both KU and UT at Home. Win those two, and they will take the race into March.

2. Competitors: Everyone else. I have not seen anyone who will be anything but tough as nails at Home. Colorado? Maybe. But they have played Gonzaga and Arizona tough on a neutral court. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt until they prove that they cannot hold their own with the other second tier teams at Home.

Oklahoma? Based on their performance thus far this year, another maybe. But they might have the best talent of all the Tier Two teams. They might be dedicated to playing uninspired, brain dead basketball in the conference play, but I have a hard time imagining that the second season will not give them a second life.

3. Bottom-feeders: None pending further notice.

Here, then, are the 2010 Big 12 REAL Standings two days from the tip-off of the Big 12 season. As can be seen, KU has the most difficult schedule of the Contenders, playing one of the other two at Home and both on the Road. The Jayhawks are burdened with the likelihood that a sixth straight conference championship (or co-) will require at least one victory in either Austin or Manhattan.

UT and K-State both have but one Road game vs. a contender.

The most difficult schedules belong to Iowa St and Mizzou, as both play all three Contenders on the Road and are saddled with two at-risk Home games vs. the two Sunflower State squads.

The pre-season 2010 REAL Standings:

1. 11.5-4.5

K-State (0-0) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at Mizzou, at CU, at BU, at NU, at ISU, at OU, at Tech,

UT (0-0) Projected L’s: at K-State
Losable games: at ISU, at OSU, at OU, at Mizzou, at Tech, at A&M, at BU

3. 11-5

KU Projected L’s: at K-State, at UT
Losable games: at NU, at ISU, at CU, at A&M, at Okie St, at Mizzou

4. 7-9

Baylor (0-0) Projected L’s: at CU, at KU, at UT, at A&M, at NU, at OSU, at OU, at Tech
Losable games: vs. KU, vs. UT

Colorado (0-0) Projected L’s: at UT, at OSU, at A&M, at ISU, at K-State, at KU, at Mizzou, at NU
Losable games: vs. K-State, vs. KU

Nebraska (0-0) Projected L’s: at A&M, at Mizzou, at CU, at KU, at UT, at K-State, at ISU, at OSU
Losable games: vs. KU, vs. K-State

Oklahoma (0-0) Projected L’s: at BU, at A&M, at Tech, at NU, at OSU, at CU, at KU, at UT
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. K-State

Okie St (0-0) Projected L’s: at OU, at BU, at K-State, at Mizzou, at Tech, at Iowa St, at UT, at A&M
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. KU

Texas A&M (0-0) Projected L’s: at K-State, at UT, at Okie St, at Mizzou, at Tech, at ISU, at BU, at OU
Losable games: vs. KU, vs. UT

Texas Tech (0-0) Projected L’s: at OSU, at KU, at UT, at A&M, at OSU, at BU, at NU, at CU
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. K-State

11. 6.5-9.5

Iowa St (0-0) Projected L’s: at NU, at Tech, at OU, at BU, at Mizzou, at KU, at CU, at K-State
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. KU, vs. K-State

Mizzou (0-0) Projected L’s: at Tech, at OU, at KU, at CU, at BU, at NU, at K-State, at ISU
Losable games: vs. K-State, vs. UT, vs. KU

Check back soon for the up-to-date REAL Standings.

–Mark

1. NDSU is as good or better than Nebraska, Penn State, and a bunch of other big-conference teams.
2. This team is dominated by Seniors.
3. These Seniors have been waiting for 5 years for this one game and this is the biggest sporting event in the history of the Dakotas.
4. They don’t turn the ball over very often.
5. NDSU shoots an amazing 41.2% as a TEAM from the three point line.

Hope

1. The toughest team they’ve played since Christmas is Oakland.
2. They allow a high percentage of shots, particularly 2 pointers.
3. They will be feeling a ridiculous amount of pressure to perform on the moment they’ve been waiting for…they do have something to lose.
4. They play at about the same pace that we do.
5. Decent (e.g. top 100) teams have torched their defense.

The only L was not a REAL surprise, being that it belonged to Baylor, the league’s most underachieving team in this—or almost any—season. In fact, based on their last twelve games, in which their 3-1 record dropped to 5-11, they probably belonged in the Third Tier with Iowa St, Tech, and Colorado. However, those three teams won only four games total against teams that were not their Tier peers: ISU beating NU and Baylor; and Tech beating KU and Baylor.

The Bears’ saving grace was three W’s vs. Tier Two Teams: at k-state and vs. Okie St and A&M.

In another oddity, KU went from experiencing the most embarrassing loss in Big 12 history Wednesday night (losing to a team it bettered by 11 games in the conference standings), to claiming the outright conference championship three days later in a gutsy second half performance vs. a focused UT team determined to give the program its first win ever in Allen Fieldhouse. Fortunately, they failed. Again.

For the season, the record of Projected Winners improved to 62-11, as UT, Okie St, NU and Mizzou all won at Home.
.
In the only at-risk game A&M won one for the Home team by taking out Mizzou. Home at-risk teams finished 7-16 for the season.

Projected Winners and at-risk Road teams were a combined 78-18.

FINAL STANDINGS: 3/7/09

The final 2009 standings, with each team’s pre-season projected record and ultimate difference in parentheses:

1. 14-2

KU (12.5-3.5) (+1.5)

2. 13-3

OU (12.5-3.5) (+.5)

3. 12-4
MU (7.5-8.5) (+4.5)

4. 9-7

A&M (7.5-8.5) (+1.5)

k-state (7-9) (+2)

OSU (7.5-8.5) (+1.5)

UT (11.5-4.5) (-2.5)

8. 8-8

NU (8.5-7.5) (-.5)

9. 5-11

Baylor (12-4) (-7)

10. 4-12

ISU (3.5-12.5) (+.5)

11. 3-13

Tech (2.5-3.5) (+.5)

12. 1-15

CU (3.5-12.5) (-2.5)

Now Y’all have a REAL good time until next January.

And this March.

. . .and April?

ROCK CHALK!

–Mark