1. NDSU is as good or better than Nebraska, Penn State, and a bunch of other big-conference teams.
2. This team is dominated by Seniors.
3. These Seniors have been waiting for 5 years for this one game and this is the biggest sporting event in the history of the Dakotas.
4. They don’t turn the ball over very often.
5. NDSU shoots an amazing 41.2% as a TEAM from the three point line.

1. The toughest team they’ve played since Christmas is Oakland.
2. They allow a high percentage of shots, particularly 2 pointers.
3. They will be feeling a ridiculous amount of pressure to perform on the moment they’ve been waiting for…they do have something to lose.
4. They play at about the same pace that we do.
5. Decent (e.g. top 100) teams have torched their defense.

The only L was not a REAL surprise, being that it belonged to Baylor, the league’s most underachieving team in this—or almost any—season. In fact, based on their last twelve games, in which their 3-1 record dropped to 5-11, they probably belonged in the Third Tier with Iowa St, Tech, and Colorado. However, those three teams won only four games total against teams that were not their Tier peers: ISU beating NU and Baylor; and Tech beating KU and Baylor.

The Bears’ saving grace was three W’s vs. Tier Two Teams: at k-state and vs. Okie St and A&M.

In another oddity, KU went from experiencing the most embarrassing loss in Big 12 history Wednesday night (losing to a team it bettered by 11 games in the conference standings), to claiming the outright conference championship three days later in a gutsy second half performance vs. a focused UT team determined to give the program its first win ever in Allen Fieldhouse. Fortunately, they failed. Again.

For the season, the record of Projected Winners improved to 62-11, as UT, Okie St, NU and Mizzou all won at Home.
.
In the only at-risk game A&M won one for the Home team by taking out Mizzou. Home at-risk teams finished 7-16 for the season.

Projected Winners and at-risk Road teams were a combined 78-18.

FINAL STANDINGS: 3/7/09

The final 2009 standings, with each team’s pre-season projected record and ultimate difference in parentheses:

1. 14-2

KU (12.5-3.5) (+1.5)

2. 13-3

OU (12.5-3.5) (+.5)

3. 12-4
MU (7.5-8.5) (+4.5)

4. 9-7

A&M (7.5-8.5) (+1.5)

k-state (7-9) (+2)

OSU (7.5-8.5) (+1.5)

UT (11.5-4.5) (-2.5)

8. 8-8

NU (8.5-7.5) (-.5)

9. 5-11

Baylor (12-4) (-7)

10. 4-12

ISU (3.5-12.5) (+.5)

11. 3-13

Tech (2.5-3.5) (+.5)

12. 1-15

CU (3.5-12.5) (-2.5)

Now Y’all have a REAL good time until next January.

And this March.

. . .and April?

ROCK CHALK!

–Mark

Provided REAL Standings form holds in all other respects, the Sooners’ only chance of grabbing a share of the conference title is to beat Mizzou on the Road (thus picking up a full RS game) and hope that Mizzou beats the KU on the Road (dropping the Hawks a full RS game).

In other words, Oklahoma is NOT OK, whereas everything is up to date in the Kansas city of Lawrence.

Mizzou, although trailing OU by a half game in the REAL Standings, actually has a more likely path to a share of the conference championship, as well as the top seed in the Post-Season tournament. The Tigers can make up its two game deficit to KU in 40 minutes on Sunday, without having to hope for any help from anyone. Of course, Mizzou, even in that unlikely event, still have to take out OU at Home (not a sure thing despite being a Projected W) and A&M on the Road (an at-risk game against a team that appears to be on the upswing).

In fact, the other big news of the Mid-week schedule was A&M’s last second victory at Nebraska, giving A&M a full game boost in the REAL Standings.

Projected Winners, thus, had a dismal 2-2 record in the M-W games. Mizzou and UT held up their end of the bargain with the W’s they had been Projected to claim vs. k-state and Texas Tech respectively. No REAL change, then for MU and UT.

For the season, the record of Projected Winners dropped to 48-9. Again, though, the big story being that a REAL contender dropped a Home game..

.

In the two at-risk games on the schedule, the Home teams went 1-1: Okie St won at Colorado, while Iowa St held a revival of that old time Hilton religion and picked up its first extra-tierestial victory of the season (over Baylor).

Home teams are now 5-14 for the season in at-risk games.

REAL STANDINGS: 2/26/09

The Big 12 hierarchy remains unchanged:

Contenders (Tier 1): KU, MU, OU.

Competitors (Tier 2): A&M, Baylor, k-state, Nebraska, Okie St, UT

Bottom-feeders (Tier 3): Colorado, Iowa St, Tech.

1. 15-1

KU (12-1) Projected L’s: None

Losable games: None

2. 13-3

OU (11-2) Projected L’s: at Mizzou

Losable games: None

3. 12.5-3.5

MU (11-2) Projected L’s: at KU

Losable games: at A&M

4. 9-7

k-state (7-6) Projected L’s: at Okie St

Losable games: none

OSU (7-6) Projected L’s: at OU

Losable games: None

UT (8-5) Projected L’s: at Okie St, at KU

Losable games: None

7. 8-8

A&M (6-7) Projected L’s: None

Losable games: at CU, vs. Mizzou

8. 7-9

NU (6-7) Projected L’s: at k-state, at Baylor

Losable games: None

9. 6-10

Baylor (4-9) Projected L’s: at UT

Losable games: None

10. 4-12

ISU (3-10) Projected L’s: at A&M, at NU

Losable games: None

11. 2-14

Tech (2-11) Projected L’s: vs. OU, vs. KU, at Iowa St

Losable games: None

12. 1.5-14.5

CU (1-12) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at k-state

Losable games: vs. A&M

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Weekend Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient):

SATURDAY

1. Iowa St at A&M (12:30p.m.)** (Projected W: A&M)

Iowa St is looking a little feisty. Wouldn’t pass up that hot bowling date for this one, though.

2. Oklahoma at Tech (2:30p.m.)* (Projected W: OU)

Who says the United States does not torture? I would confess to anything to get out of watching this game.

3. Colorado at Baylor (3:00p.m.)* (Projected W: Baylor)

Come to think of it, this one could be even more painful.

4. UT at Okie St (5:00p.m.)*** (Projected W: Okie St)

A must game for Okie St’s March hopes. And UT is not home free yet.

5. Nebraska at k-state (7:00 p.m.)*** (Projected W: k-state)

N-I-T.N-I-T. N-I-T.

SUNDAY

6. Mizzou at KU (1:00p.m.)********************* (Projected W: KU)

Mizzou tries to take the inside track to its first Big 12 Championship in any men’s sport—or put another way, in any sport that matters. Your job, Mr. Jayhawk, if you choose to accept it (and I know you will), is to prevent the premature arrival of the End of Days as prophesied in the Book of Revelation.

–Mark

——————————————————————————–
A Good Credit Score is 700 or Above. See yours in just 2 easy steps!

If the three remaining meaningful games go as projected (i.e., OU over KU in Norman, Mizzou over OU in Columbia, and KU over Mizzou in Lawrence) the Hawks will claim a share of their fifth consecutive Big 12 title, as well as their umpteenth ANY conference championship.

And why shouldn’t those three games go as Projected? This Saturday, Projected Winners (KU, Mizzou and Okie St) were 3-0. Their record for the season improved to 46-7.

Might as well not even play the games. Right?

Well, maybe play it out for the entertainment value. Plus, who knows: Who is to say KU can’t hand OU to its second straight setback Monday night. And with Blake Griffin back in the lineup, I would give the Sooners a fighting chance in Columbia, projection or no.

In the weekend’s three at-risk games, the Home teams were 1-2 (the 1 courtesy of the aforementioned concussion) and are now 5-14 for the season.

Although I have long contended that the REAL Standings are not predictions, taking the money line all season on Projected Winners and visiting teams in at-risk games would have resulted in a 60-12 record.

REAL STANDINGS: 2/22/09

The Big 12 hierarchy again remains unchanged. Three teams have separated themselves from the six-pack in the middle at each end:

Contenders (Tier 1): KU, MU, OU.

Competitors (Tier 2): A&M, Baylor, k-state, Nebraska, Okie St, UT

Bottom-feeders (Tier 3): Colorado, Iowa St, Tech.

1. 14-2

KU (11-1) Projected L’s: at OU
Losable games: None

OU (11-1) Projected L’s: at Mizzou
Losable games: None

3. 12.5-3.5

MU (10-2) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at A&M

4. 9-7

k-state (7-5) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at Okie St
Losable games: none

UT (7-5) Projected L’s: at Okie St, at KU
Losable games: None

6. 8.5-7.5

OSU (6-6) Projected L’s: at OU
Losable games: at CU

7. 8-8

NU (6-6) Projected L’s: at k-state, at Baylor
Losable games: None

8. 7-9

A&M (5-7) Projected L: at NU
Losable games: at CU, vs. Mizzou

9. 6.5-9.5

Baylor (4-8) Projected L’s: at UT
Losable games: at Iowa St

10. 3.5-12.5

ISU (2-10) Projected L’s: at A&M, at NU
Losable games: vs. Baylor

11. 2-14

Tech (2-10) Projected L’s: at UT, vs. OU, vs. KU, at Iowa St
Losable games: None

CU (1-11) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at k-state
Losable games: vs. Okie St, vs. A&M

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Midweek Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient):

MONDAY

1. KU at OU (8:30p.m.)****************************** (Projected W: OU)

Biggest game played by a Big 12 team since April 7, 2008. Brings back memories of ’88. Let’s hope these memories are as pleasant.

TUESDAY

2. Baylor at Iowa St (8:00p.m.)** (Toss-up)

Iowa St’s chance to separate itself from Colorado and Tech. They won’t get a better chance, what with Baylor playing like the least of the mid-level teams.

3. A&M at Nebraska (8:30p.m.)*** (Projected W: NU)

Could actually be an entertaining game between two teams trying to impress the NIT.

WEDNESDAY
4. k-state at Mizzou (8:00p.m.)**** (Projected W: Mizzou)

K-state won by 16 in Manhattan. How many points is Paige Arena worth?

5. Okie St at Colorado (8:30 p.m.)** (Toss-up)

A Must-Win game for the Cowboys if they want to remain on the bubble.

Of course, it’s a must win for Colorado, if they want to ensure winning two conference games.

6. Tech at Texas (8:30p.m.)* (Projected W: UT)

A REAL Stat-Padder for UT.

–Mark

Or, should I say, the calm before the storm.

A&M at Home over UT as projected. KU at Home over Iowa St as projected. Nebraska at Home over Colorado as projected. No excitement there. No gain, no pain, for the winners.

In the only mid-week at-risk game, Okie St took out Tech. Who didn’t see that coming, even in Lubbock? A half game pickup in the RS for the Cowboys, for what that’s worth.

For the season, Projected Winners are now 43-7: that’s 86% for k-state fans.

Home at-risk teams are now 4-12.

REAL STANDINGS: 2/19/09

The Big 12 hierarchy remains unchanged:

Contenders (Tier 1): KU, MU, OU.

Competitors (Tier 2): A&M, Baylor, k-state, Nebraska, Okie St, UT

Bottom-feeders (Tier 3): Colorado, Iowa St, Tech.

1. 14.5-1.5

OU (11-0) Projected L’s: at Mizzou
Losable games: at UT

2. 14-2

KU (10-1) Projected L’s: at OU
Losable games: None

3. 12.5-3.5

Mizzou (9-2) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at A&M

4. 8.5-7.5

k-state (6-5) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at Okie St
Losable games: at ISU

OSU (5-6) Projected L’s: at OU
Losable games: at CU

UT (6-5) Projected L’s: at Okie St, at KU
Losable games: vs. OU

7. 8-8

NU (5-6) Projected L’s: at k-state, at Baylor
Losable games: None

8. 6.5-9.5

A&M (4-7) Projected L: at NU
Losable games: at Tech, at CU, vs. Mizzou

Baylor (4-7) Projected L’s: at Okie St, at UT
Losable games: at Iowa St

10. 4-12

ISU (2-9) Projected L’s: at A&M, at NU
Losable games: vs. k-state, vs. Baylor

11. 2.5-13.5

Tech (2-9) Projected L’s: at UT, vs. OU, vs. KU, at Iowa St
Losable games: vs. A&M

12. 2-14

CU (1-10) Projected L’s: vs. Mizzou, at Baylor, at k-state
Losable games: vs. Okie St, vs. A&M

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Saturday Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient):

1. Mizzou at Colorado (11:30a.m.)**1/2 (Projected W: Mizzou)

CU will come closer than the 700 points they lost by in Columbia. Will it be by 680 or 690?

2. Baylor at Okie St (12:30p.m.)**1/2 (Projected W: Okie St)

There is no “D” in “Team”: Not if the team is “Oklahoma State.” Or “Baylor.”

3. Nebraska at KU (3:00p.m.)*1/2 (Projected W: KU)

The Jayhawks have nothing to fear but looking ahead itself. . .
4. k-state at Iowa St (5:00p.m.)**1/2 (Toss-up)

With a player like Brackins and a nice three point attack, the Cyclones have to beat somebody not named Colorado some time. Don’t they?

5. A&M at Tech (5:00 p.m.)*1/2 (Toss-up)

A toss-up per the REAL Standings formula. By no other measure, however.

6. OU at Texas (8:00p.m.)****(Toss-up)

Doesn’t happen often. But when the Erwin Center is rockin’, it can get as loud as any arena anywhere. It will be rockin’ Saturday night against the presumptive heir to the No. 1 ranking in all the land. And believe it or not, UT’s front line can hold its own against the firm of Griffin and Griffin. The question will be guard play. Some hot shooting and cool ball handling in this frenzied environment, and OU’s No. 1 dreams will truly be at-risk. Both nationally and in the Big 12.

–Mark

The only other noteworthy game Saturday was UT’s half game pickup in its at-risk win at Colorado.

The other four games had zero effect on the REAL Standings, as Projected Winners Mizzou, OU, Okie St, and Baylor all won at Home over Nebraska, Tech, Iowa St, and A&M respectively.

For the season, Projected Winners are now 40-7.

With KU’s victory in Manhattan and UT’s in Boulder, Home at-risk teams are now 4-11. Or, should I say, Road teams one level higher than their hosts, are 11-4.

REAL STANDINGS: 2/15/09

The Big 12 hierarchy:

Contenders (Tier 1): KU, MU, OU.

Competitors (Tier 2): A&M, Baylor, k-state, Nebraska, Okie St, UT

Bottom-feeders (Tier 3): Colorado, Iowa St, Tech.

1. 14.5-1.5

OU (11-0) Projected L’s: at Mizzou
Losable games: at UT

2. 14-2

KU (9-1) Projected L’s: at OU
Losable games: None

3. 12.5-3.5

Mizzou (9-2) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at A&M

4. 8.5-7.5

k-state (6-5) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at Okie St
Losable games: at ISU

UT (6-4) Projected L’s: at A&M, at Okie St, at KU
Losable games: vs. OU

6. 8-8

NU (5-5) Projected L’s: at KU, at k-state, at Baylor
Losable games: None

OSU (4-6) Projected L’s: at OU
Losable games: at Tech, at CU

8. 6.5-9.5

A&M (3-7) Projected L: at NU
Losable games: at Tech, at CU, vs. Mizzou

Baylor (4-7) Projected L’s: at Okie St, at UT
Losable games: at Iowa St

10. 4-12

ISU (2-8) Projected L’s: at KU, at A&M, at NU
Losable games: vs. k-state, vs. Baylor

11. 3-13

Tech (2-8) Projected L’s: at UT, vs. OU, vs. KU, at Iowa St
Losable games: vs. Okie St, vs. A&M

12. 2-14

CU (1-9) Projected L’s: vs. Mizzou, at NU, at Baylor, at k-state
Losable games: vs. Okie St, vs. A&M

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Midweek Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient):

MONDAY

1. UT at A&M (8:00p.m.)***1/2 (Projected W: A&M)

One day a year, A&M and UT fans care about basketball. No. not when the two play in Austin, where they only care when KU comes to town.

At stake? UT’s day off in OKC.

TUESDAY

2. North Carolina Central at k-state (7:00p.m.)* (Projected W: Duh. . .)

What the hell is this? Earth to k-state: It’s February!

WEDNESDAY

3. Iowa St at KU (7:00p.m.)*1/2 (Projected W: KU)

Ho-freakin’-hum.
4. Colorado at Nebraska (8:00p.m.)*1/2 (Projected W: NU)

First inclination is to say, “Ho-freakin’-hum.” But maybe not: Could be the Buffs’ last and best chance to win one outside Boulder’s City Limits.

5. Okie St at Tech (8:30p.m.)*1/2 (Toss-up)

Who wants to watch defense anyway?

–Mark

Absolutely no change in the REAL Standings in the other four games, as Mizzou, UT, Iowa St, and k-state all won at Home, as projected.

For the season, Projected Winners are now 36-7.

With OU’s victory in Waco, Home at-risk teams are now 4-9.

REAL STANDINGS: 2/12/09

The Big 12 hierarchy:

Contenders (Tier 1): KU, MU, OU.

Competitors (Tier 2): A&M, Baylor, k-state, Nebraska, Okie St, UT

Bottom-feeders (Tier 3): Colorado, Iowa St, Tech.

1. 14.5-1.5

OU (10-0) Projected L’s: at Mizzou
Losable games: at UT

2. 13.5-2.5

KU (8-1) Projected L’s: at OU
Losable games: at k-state

3. 12.5-3.5

Mizzou (8-2) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at A&M

4. 9-7

k-state (6-4) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at Okie St
Losable games: vs. KU, at ISU

5. 8-8

NU (5-4) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at KU, at k-state, at Baylor
Losable games: None

OSU (3-6) Projected L’s: at OU
Losable games: at Tech, at CU

UT (5-4) Projected L’s: at A&M, at Okie St, at KU
Losable games: at CU, vs. OU

8. 6.5-9.5

A&M (3-6) Projected L: at Baylor, at NU
Losable games: at Tech, at CU, vs. Mizzou

Baylor (3-7) Projected L’s: at Okie St, at UT
Losable games: at Iowa St

10. 4-12

ISU (2-7) Projected L’s: at Okie St, at KU, at A&M, at NU
Losable games: vs. k-state, vs. Baylor

11. 3-13

Tech (2-7) Projected L’s: at OU, at UT, vs. OU, vs. KU, at Iowa St
Losable games: vs. Okie St, vs. A&M

12. 2.5-13.5

CU (1-8) Projected L’s: vs. Mizzou, at NU, at Baylor, at k-state
Losable games: vs. UT, vs. Okie St, vs. A&M

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Saturday’s Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient):

1. UT at Colorado (Noon)** (Toss-up)

As long as Barnes continues to take my advice and start Dogus Balbay, this game, at least, should be a fairly easy W as Road games go.

2. Nebraska at Mizzou (12:30p.m.)*** (Projected W: Mizzou)

Can Mizzou avenge its loss at Lincoln. Or do the Huskers sweep?

3. Tech at Oklahoma (12:30p.m.)* (Projected W: OU)

It’s Valentine’s Day. Take your valentine to lunch. Nothing to watch here.
4. KU at k-state (2:30p.m.)**** (Toss-up)

But be Home by 2:30.

5. Iowa St at Okie St (3:00p.m.)*1/2 (Projected W: Okie St)

The Cyclones still looking for that elusive first Road Win. Not out of the question playing a team that, at times, is colder than the Eskimos at Joe’s.

6. A&M at Baylor (5:00p.m.) **1/2 (Projected W: Baylor)

Hey, Notre Dame stopped its seven game slide. Is Baylor the next underachieving team to get off the schneide?

–Mark

I chastened another Big 12 color commentator recently for promoting the urban legend that Mizzou is a good defensive team. (A mantra repeated by Jon Sundvold Wednesday night while the Tigers were holding k-state to 88 points, but I will cut him some slack, being a Mizzou alum and all.)

But I also must give credit where it is due: Mr. Gottlieb not only hit the nail on the head as to Cookie, he made an insightful comment that few of the so-called experts either refuse to acknowledge or, at a fundamental level, do not understand, despite being the primary premise of the REAL Standings since its inception: any conference Road win should be valued more than any Home win. Well, unless the Road win is at Colorado or Texas Tech.

As for the mid-week action on the Court, the Word of the Day is “pathetic”—as in Baylor, Texas, and Kansas. Three putrid efforts. UT won in Waco, because—well, because one of the two “pathetic” teams that showed up (using the term loosely) had to win. It’s a law of nature. That, and Baylor out-choked them. Heck, Baylor out-choked everyone this side of Cabman John Gray. They started choking during the introductions and didn’t stop until they were back in the locker room after the game.

And KU won despite playing unalert, uninspired, and unsmart basketball on the Road for 35 or 36 of the game’s 40 minutes. But, regardless of how ugly the game was, the Jayhawks live to fight another day. And, it was that critical. With OU and UT winning on the Road, the Hawks could not afford to let this one slip away—not with more difficult Road games waiting in the wings (i.e., every Road game not in Lubbock).

Unless KU or Texas step up their games, it might all be moot anyway. Because “pathetic” was not the word for OU. No, the Sooners did not look overpowering at Okie St—it was a one point game late. What was impressive was the Sooners’ mental toughness. They responded to every challenge, and, most importantly, Austin Johnson displayed so much seniorism he should receive a discount at Denny’s and the local cinema.

In the “pathetic game of the week,” Colorado came through in the only game this season it was projected to win, holding off fellow Tier 3 denizen Iowa St. Along with k-state’s Home victory over Mizzou and A&M’s win over Tech in College Station, Projected Winners went 3-1 (the lone loss being Baylor’s Home Court gagging exhibition vs. UT) and are now 22-3 for the season (88%).

In the two toss-up (at-risk) games, the Home teams went 0-2, with NU and Okie St losing to KU and OU respectively. Home at-risk teams are now 2-6 for the season. Which makes sense, considering the Home team in these games is always a full tier lower than its opponent.

REAL STANDINGS: 1/29/09

Texas was the big winner in the mid-week REAL Standings, picking up a full RS game with its Projected L turned into a W at Baylor. Meanwhile, OU and KU each moved ½ game in the right direction with their at-risk game victories.

Baylor, obviously, was the big loser, suffering what might well be the end of any REAListic chance the Bears had of competing for the conference title.

The Big 12 hierarchy:

Contenders (Tier 1): Baylor, KU, OU, UT.

Competitors (Tier 2): A&M, k-state, Mizzou, Nebraska, Okie St,

Bottom-feeders (Tier 3): Colorado, Iowa St, Tech

1. 13.5-2.5

OU (6-0) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at UT

Losable games: at Mizzou

2. 13-3

KU (5-0) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at OU

Losable games: at Mizzou, at k-state

3. 12.5-3.5

UT (4-1) Projected L’s: at KU

Losable games: at NU, at A&M, at Okie St

4. 11-5

Baylor (3-3) Projected L’s: at UT

Losable games: at Mizzou, at Okie St

5. 8.5-7.5

Mizzou (4-2) Projected L’s: at UT, at KU, at A&M

Losable games: vs. Baylor, at ISU, vs. KU, at CU, vs. OU

6. 7.5-8.5

A&M (2-4) Projected L: at OU, at Baylor, at NU

Losable games: vs. UT, at Tech, at CU

7. 7-9

k-state (2-4) Projected L’s: at UT, at A&M, at Mizzou, at Okie St

Losable games: vs. KU, at ISU

OSU (2-3) Projected L’s: at A&M, at KU, at UT, at OU

Losable games: at Tech, vs. Baylor, at CU, vs. UT

9. 6.5-9.5

NU (2-4) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at KU, at k-state, at Baylor

Losable games: at Tech, at CU, vs. UT

10. 4-12

ISU (1-4) Projected L’s: vs. OU, at k-state, at Okie St, at KU, vs. Baylor, at A&M, at NU

Losable games: vs. Mizzou, vs. k-state

11. 3-13

CU (1-4) Projected L’s: at KU, at OU, at ISU, vs. UT, at NU, at Baylor, at k-state

Losable games: vs. NU, vs. Mizzou, vs. Okie St, vs. A&M

12. 2.5-13.5

Tech (1-4) Projected L’s: at Okie St, vs. Baylor, at k-state, at OU, at UT, vs. OU, vs. KU, at ISU

Losable games: vs. NU, vs. Okie St, vs. A&M

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Saturday Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient):

1. Oklahoma at Iowa St (12:30p.m.)** (Projected W: OU)

My guess is that Craig Brackins does not score 42 points this Saturday.

2. Okie St at A&M (1:00p.m.)*** (Projected W: A&M)

Not even February, and we already have a revenge game.

3. k-state at UT (3:00p.m.)*** (Projected W: UT)

Nothing to see here.

4. Colorado at KU (3:00p.m.)** (Projected W: KU)

Or here. . .

5. Baylor at Mizzou (5:00p.m.)**** (Toss-up)

Not much defense here. I will take the over. Whatever it is. . .

6. Nebraska at Texas Tech (7:00p.m.)* (Toss-up)

A resistable force vs. a moveable object. Nice game—if you are suffering from insomnia.

–Mark

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I like Reid Gettys. I enjoyed watching him manage the game as a point guard for arguably the best team in college basketball history. Yes, they fell victim to the one and done format of the Big Dance, but I would pay to watch a best of seven series between Phi Slama Jamma and some of the other great teams in college basketball history (includeing UCLA of either Alcindor or Walton vintage, Indiana ’81—yes, over ’76—and UNLV ’90).

And any friend of a certain judge in Houston (whose name Reid drops every time he does a KU game the way Dickie V pays homage to Coach K and Self’s predecessor in any game involving any team anywhere) is a friend of mine.

That said, there were a couple of comments by Mr. Gettys Saturday that gave me, for one, pause. One, in fact, was Reid-iculous: that Mizzou is playing defense as well as anyone on the country.

Uh, Reid: have you watched Mizzou play? Did you see the 96 points dropped on them by Oklahoma St Wednesday night, or the 86 put up by Tech Saturday?

Yes, those numbers are attributable in part to the number of possessions in a game played by teams that both want to run and shoot and shoot and run, a la Mizzou, Okie St, and Tech.

But some of it also due to god-awful defense. Mizzou’s game in Stillwater was such a fine exhibition of two teams waving the other through to the basket, a video of it should be shown in defensive driving classes as an example of courtesy behind the wheel.

If you are not paying close attention—say you’re doing your taxes with the game on in the background–Mizzou creates the appearance of playing good defense by generating turnovers. When a team gets a steal, it gives the impression that it is playing tough on the ball defense.

However, the type of defense that focuses on creating turnovers, especially in the backcourt, is also susceptible to allowing easy scoring opportunities in the form of uncontested jump shots and layups when the turnover doesn’t come.

The question for any team that tries to create a frenzied pace by playing to what is effectively a 12 second shot clock and forcing the action from end line to end line with a frenetic defense is: What is the bottom line?

The bottom line is that, on balance, this tactic can be quite effective against teams with lesser athletes or with teams that are comparable in talent but who lack the will-power to play their own game, but, rather, get sucked into a pace outside its comfort zone.

Against teams with strong ball handlers who refuse to let Mizzou dictate the action, the “forty minutes of hell” concept is exposed the same way the Big 12’s spread offenses in football were exposed by teams capable of putting pressure on the quarterback—as in Illinois 75, Mizzou 59 and Nebraska 56, Mizzou 51.

Which is not to say that Mizzou is not a reasonably good team. They may well make a run at being the Big 12’s fifth or sixth entrant in the Big Dance. They will have a shot in every game they play in front of the Home crowd, where opponents will feel even more pressure to play at Mizzou’s pace in a misguided attempt to shut the crowd up fast. Mizzou, however, still has some proving to do before they should be classified as a strong team—or as one that plays defense as well as anyone in the country.

Still, I understand that Reid’s job is to say good things about the Big 12. But certainly he can find some good things to say about Mizzou without resorting to touting imaginary traits.

His other questionable statement Saturday was that OU is a team built to be in the Final Four.

Not Reid-iculous, but questionable. OU has Blake Griffin and Willie Warren. Nice. Perhaps nice enough to win the Big 12, as projected by the current edition of the REAL Standings. And if they get the right match-ups and a little bit of luck in March, they could, indeed, be playing into April. But as for being a team made for the Final Four, they are not particularly strong at point guard and center. Reid credits Austin Johnson as doing an excellent job at the point guard position, but he does not create opportunities. He is, instead, a game manager, a serviceable, if not spectacular, player: more Reid Gettys than Isiah Thomas. And Reid did make the Final Four. But, than again, I expect Johnson would do so if he were playing alongside Akeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, Larry Micheaux, and Michael Young. And as good as Griffin and Warren are, they are not Olajuwon and Drexler.

As for Saturday’s games, as opposed to Saturday’s comments, only two had any effect on the REAL Standings: Okie St, projected to lose its Road game against fellow Tier Two Team Nebraska, downed the Huskers in Lincoln in overtime. (Here’s hoping the country’s No. 1 three point shooter prior to Saturday, Nebraska’s Paul Velander, is 1-8 from behind the arc when the Jayhawks invade the Devaney center.)

The other four games in which a projection was made went according to Hoyle: KU over ISU in Ames; OU over Baylor in Norman; UT over A&M in Austin; and Mizzou over Tech in Columbia.

Projected Winners are now 19-2 (90%) for the season.

In the only at-risk (or toss-up) game, k-state claimed its first victory of the conference season in Boulder. Road teams are now 4-2 in at-risk games (i.e., those in which Home teams play host to teams one level higher in the REAL Standings).

REAL STANDINGS: 1/25/09

The only game that raised any question about a team’s placement in the REAL Standings’ hierarchy was Baylor’s non-competitive effort in Norman. Or is OU REALly as good as Mr. Gettys believes? At any rate, that game was projected as a loss for the Bears, so no harm done. Yet.

In addition, a closer look will be taken at k-state’s bona fides. Although they have not played a game yet in which they were a Projected Winner, their performance in Boulder was not their first shabby effort. They have generally looked like a poorly coached, unorganized team. Where have you gone, Michael Beasley? And, Billy, we hardly knew ye. . .

Still, for the time being, we will stay with:

Contenders (Tier 1): Baylor, KU, OU, UT.

Competitors (Tier 2): A&M, k-state, Mizzou, Nebraska, Okie St,

Bottom-feeders (Tier 3): Colorado, Iowa St, Tech

1. 13-3

OU (5-0) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at UT
Losable games: at Okie St, at Mizzou

2. 12.5-3.5

KU (4-0) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at OU
Losable games: at NU, at Mizzou, at k-state

3. 12-4

Baylor (3-2) Projected L’s: at UT
Losable games: at Mizzou, at Okie St

4. 11.5-4.5

UT (3-1) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at KU
Losable games: at NU, at A&M, at Okie St

5. 8.5-7.5

Mizzou (4-1) Projected L’s: at k-state, at UT, at KU, at A&M
Losable games: vs. Baylor, at ISU, vs. KU, at CU, vs. OU

6. 7.5-8.5

A&M (1-4) Projected L: at OU, at Baylor, at NU
Losable games: vs. UT, at Tech, at CU

OSU (2-2) Projected L’s: at A&M, at KU, at UT, at OU
Losable games: vs. OU, at Tech, vs. Baylor, at CU, vs. UT

8. 7-9

k-state (1-4) Projected L’s: at UT, at A&M, at Mizzou, at Okie St
Losable games: vs. KU, at ISU

NU (2-3) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at KU, at k-state, at Baylor
Losable games: vs. KU, at Tech, at CU, vs. UT

10. 4-12

ISU (1-3) Projected L’s: at CU, vs. OU, at k-state, at Okie St, at KU, vs. Baylor, at A&M, at NU
Losable games: vs. Mizzou, vs. k-state

11. 3-13

CU (0-4) Projected L’s: at KU, at OU, at ISU, vs. UT, at NU, at Baylor, at k-state
Losable games: vs. NU, vs. Mizzou, vs. Okie St, vs. A&M

12. 2.5-13.5

Tech (1-3) Projected L’s: at A&M, at Okie St, vs. Baylor, at k-state, at OU, at UT, vs. OU, vs. KU, at ISU
Losable games: vs. NU, vs. Okie St, vs. A&M

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Mid-Week Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient):

MONDAY

1. Oklahoma at Okie St (8:00p.m.)**** (Toss-up)

In its last three games, Okie St has played into overtime twice and lost by one point in regulation. If nothing else, they are competitive. One of the few games in which OU is vulnerable. If they win this one handily, the conference championship will be theirs to lose.

TUESDAY

2. Texas at Baylor (8:00p.m.)**** (Projected W: Baylor)

Remind me again when Baylor last beat UT anywhere? Maybe they were looking ahead to this game Saturday while playing OU. If they don’t win this game, at Home, with comparable, if not better, talent than UT, when will they do it? Any time this century?

3. Iowa St at Colorado (8:30p.m.)*1/2 (Projected W: Colorado)

This is easily CU’s best chance at a conference victory this season. If they can’t beat a peer team at Home, they will be looking down the barrel at 0-17. Can they control Craig Brackins better than the Jayhawks did in Ames, or will Mr. Brackins be the first man in history to record a double triple?

WEDNESDAY

4. KU at Nebraska (6:30p.m.)**** (Toss-up)

With the top two teams in the REAL Standings both at-risk, the Jayhawks could leapfrog the Sooners and take over the pole position in the conference race by Thursday morning. Or, dare I say, fall 1 and ½ games back. The Hawks must protect the perimeter in this one. Paul Velander is not likely to comply with my hope expressed above and go 1-8. He will, however, continue to make fine German beer.

5. Mizzou at k-state (8:00p.m.)***1/2 (Projected W: k-state)

k-state’s virgin voyage this season as a Projected Winner. If they lose, will it tell us more about them or more about Mizzou? On the other hand, if they win, will it tell us anything about either?

6. Texas Tech at A&M (8:00p.m.)** (Projected W: A&M)

Like k-state, this is A&M’s first projected W of 2009. Should be a cakewalk after consecutive games against the conference’s top four teams in the REAL Standings.

–Mark

After this week’s M-W games, I am on the verge of going subjective and declaring KU the best team in the Big 12. And you know what that means. It means that the rest of the conference season is for entertainment value only. And for March prep. But more about that later.

In the big news of the week, Mizzou became the first Road team to pick up a victory against a peer or higher level team, by outlasting Okie St 97-95 in a game that resembled a Three Stooges episode in the final five minutes. In the end, Mizzou played the role of Moe to Okie St’s Larry. As for Curly Joe: that would be the mindless moments of slapstick provided by the refs.

With Mizzou’s surprise victory, Projected Winners in the REAL Standings are now 15-1 for the season (94%).

Meanwhile, in the only midweek at-risk game, Baylor took care of k-state handily. In at-risk games, Road teams are now 2-3 in games in which Home teams have hosted teams one level higher in the REAL Standings hierarchy.

In other games, Home teams KU, Tech, and OU, Projected Winners all, took out A&M, CU, and Nebraska.

REAL STANDINGS: 1/22/09

Although Mizzou took a step toward moving up a level, they did everything but lose a game that appeared un-loseable with five minutes remaining. They will have to take out a team that plays REAL D—and play some themselves–before they move up the Big 12 ladder.

Not to mention k-state, which is getting perilously close to being dropped in status to the land of the Bottom Feeders. Although they have been either the Projected Loser or at-risk in their four conference games, they have lost all four—and in unimpressive fashion.

Still, not enough information to justify changing any team’s status yet:

Contenders (Tier 1): Baylor, KU, OU, UT.

Competitors (Tier 2): A&M, k-state, Mizzou, Nebraska, Okie St,

Bottom-feeders (Tier 3): Colorado, Iowa St, Tech

1. 13-3

OU (4-0) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at UT
Losable games: at Okie St, at Mizzou

2. 12.5-3.5

KU (3-0) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at OU
Losable games: at NU, at Mizzou, at k-state

3. 12-4

Baylor (3-1) Projected L’s: at OU, at UT
Losable games: at Mizzou, at Okie St

4. 11.5-4.5

UT (2-1) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at KU
Losable games: at NU, at A&M, at Okie St

5. 8.5-7.5

Mizzou (3-1) Projected L’s: at k-state, at UT, at KU, at A&M
Losable games: vs. Baylor, at ISU, vs. KU, at CU, vs. OU

6. 8-8

NU (2-2) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at KU, at k-state, at Baylor
Losable games: vs. KU, at Tech, at CU, vs. UT

7. 7.5-8.5

A&M (1-3) Projected L: at KU, at UT, at OU, at Baylor, at NU
Losable games: vs. UT, at Tech, at CU

8. 6.5-9.5

k-state (0-4) Projected L’s: at UT, at A&M, at Mizzou, at Okie St
Losable games: CU, vs. KU, at ISU

OSU (1-2) Projected L’s: at NU, at A&M, at KU, at UT, at OU
Losable games: vs. OU, at Tech, vs. Baylor, at CU, vs. UT

10. 4-12

ISU (1-2) Projected L’s: vs. KU, at CU, vs. OU, at k-state, at Okie St, at KU, vs. Baylor, at A&M, at NU
Losable games: vs. Mizzou, vs. k-state

11. 3.5-12.5

CU (0-3) Projected L’s: at KU, at OU, at ISU, vs. UT, at NU, at Baylor, at k-state
Losable games: vs. k-state, vs. NU, vs. Mizzou, vs. Okie St, vs. A&M

12. 2.5-13.5

Tech (1-2) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at A&M, at Okie St, vs. Baylor, at k-state, at OU, at UT, vs. OU, vs. KU, at ISU
Losable games: vs. NU, vs. Okie St, vs. A&M

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Saturday’s Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient):

1. Texas Tech at Mizzou (12:30p.m.)** (Projected W: Mizzou)

Imagine Mizzou vs. Tech in football, only with lesser athletes and even less defense. Take the over. And Mizzou on the money line.

2. KU at Iowa St (1:00p.m.)*** (Projected W: KU)

The Jayhawks just might be the Big 12’s best team. If not now, before long. They have the best inside-outside combo. REALly. OU has Warren and Blake Griffin. UT has Abrams and James. Four damn good players. But what would you rather have: an inside-outside force consisting of a shooting guard and power forward, or one represented by a world class national champion point guard and true center. Advantage: KU.

And whereas OU and Texas had the early season edge in experience, that edge is fast disappearing as KU has added a third option (Mario Little) who may be the best on all three teams when he nears 100%, and the Hawks’ freshmen are learning and accepting their roles: i.e., their defense and decision-making are both improving noticeably with the passage of each game. The youngsters still have to demonstrate that they can take the game between their ears on the Road, but the early season schedule—including their first two Road games coming against Tier 3 teams—is giving them a chance to adjust slowly to conference life away from the friendly confines of AFH.

My vote for KU’s MVP goes to the Big 12 schedule-maker.

If and when this team beats a good team on the Road, they will be the most dangerous team in the league—i.e., the one most capable of doing some serious damage in March. In the meantime, because of their youth, they need to take every game seriously if they don’t want to be the biggest upset victim of the year.

3. Okie St at Nebraska (3:00p.m.)**1/2 (Projected W: Nebraska)

Did Nebraska give everything they had against OU, or are the Huskers REALly pretty good? Regardless, they should win this game unless Okie St turns its D up 5 or 6 notches over what it displayed Wednesday night in Stillwater vs. Mizzou.

4. Baylor at Oklahoma (3:00p.m.)**** (Projected W: OU)

Game of the weekend in the Big 12. Was OU looking ahead to this one while playing Nebraska? Can Baylor take its game on the Road against a truly good team?

5. k-state at Colorado (4:00p.m.)** (Toss-up)

For the fifth straight time, k-state is at risk or projected to lose. Still, as a Tier 2 team, they have to win one of these games. Or maybe they are not a Tier 2 team. . .

6. A&M at Texas (7:00p.m.)*** (Projected W: UT)

We’ll give this three stars because of the rivalry factor. If A&M shows something on the Road in this game, it will be a first in conference play.

–Mark