Or outsmart yourself.

One trend to watch is the success major conference teams had in Week 1 vs. teams from minor conferences. Case in Point: Major conference underdog (Alabama) routing minor conference opponent (Clemson). Or major conference team Kentucky taking out minor conference foe Louisville. Not to mention major conference team Mizzou covering against minor conference team Illinois. Or Colorado covering handily against in-state minor conference rival Colorado St. And, of course, Cal over Michigan St.

The only exception to this trend in Week 1’s Take it to the Bank picks was KU, which I don’t count, because the Hawks, 35 point favorites, would not have been involved in the week’s picks at all had they worn any other uniform.

The games of Week 2:

1. La Tech +21 at KU

This week’s KU opponent is a major step up from Fla International. La Tech has given major conference teams fit for years. Last week, they took out Mississippi St. Will the Jayhawks unleash the extent of their pent up fury after keeping a low profile in Week 1? Or will they continue to play it close to the vest in order to keep South Florida guessing? Tough call. But when in doubt, I take the team that was 12-1 against the spread last year:

KU

2. San Jose St +26 at Nebraska

Unlike the Monkees, I am not a believer in Nebraska in the second week of the BP era. However, I believe even less in San Jose St.

NU

3. Cincinnati +22 at Oklahoma

This would be a troublesome spread the Queen City. In Norman, what is Vegas thinking?

OU

4. Texas Tech -10 at Nevada

I have a good friend who is a Red Raider diehard. He is distressed already by their close call (49-24) against Eastern Washington. But, hey, EWU is a good FCS team (according to my Big Sky source). And you can’t put too

much stock in an opener against a no-name opponent.

TECH

5. Texas A&M -3 at New Mexico

A tough test for the major/minor conference theory. Especially considering that this is the first road game for A&M’s new coach. And having been in New Mexico earlier this week, I can attest to the fact that the Lobos are chomping at the bit to take down a flailing Big 12 team. Won’t surprise me if UNM wins this game outright. But what conference are they in this year?

A&M

6. Houston +16.5 at Okie St

Okie St even appears to be a good team from a major conference.

OKIE ST

7. Kent +7.5 at Iowa St

Iowa St might not yet be in the good category, but they are approaching respectability. As long as Baylor is in the Big 12, the Cyclones are not the worst team in the conference. In fact, they might even be better than a certain other Big 12 South team.

IOWA ST

8. Texas -26.5 at UTEP

Please, don’t throw me in that briar patch, Mr. Vegas man.

UT

9. Northwestern -6.5 at Duke

It IS at Duke. Unfortunately, in an outdoor stadium. Not Duke’s forte.

NORTHWESTERN

10. Miami (FL) +21 at Florida

Miami is trying to claw its way back into prominence. The operative word being “trying.”

FU

11. Oregon St +16.5 at Penn St

Gotta go with a major team in a minor conference in this case over the minor team in a major conference.

PENN ST

12. BYU -6.5 at Washington

Ditto Game No. 11.

BYU

13. Ole Miss +8 at Wake Forest

Another test of the conference theory. Don’t know that Ole Miss will take out Wake, but they should be able to cover this generous spread.

OLE MISS

14. South Florida -14 at Central Florida

Speaking of generous spreads–especially with USF looking ahead to the biggest game in its short history next Friday night..

UCF

15. Fla Int’l +27 at Iowa

If FIU can hang within 30 of a truly great team, why wouldn’t it stay within 20 of the Hawkeyes?

FIU

–Mark

My record last year against the spread was 115-92. I’ll try to do better this time around.***

The Games of Week 1:

SATURDAY:

1. Fla-Int’l +36 at KU

Usually, I don’t do games with spreads of 30+ points. One exception is when it the game involves KU. This one is money in the proverbial bank. Mangino is not going to let up in Week 1 until the spread is around 45. And TD Todd never lets up.

KU

2. Western Michigan +14 at Nebraska

Okay. I admit it. Sometimes I am as shallow as the pundits I rake over the coals on phogblog. The name Nebraska still means something. The name Western Michigan doesn’t. Especially in Bo Pellini’s inaugural game.

NEBRASKA

3. Okie St -7 at Washington St

Washington St must REALly suck to be an underdog at home to one of the lower division South teams we beat last year (you know—instead of the good South teams).

OKIE ST

4. Illinois +8.5 at Mizzou

The Illini should have won this game last year, but for a fumble that MU returned 99 yards for a TD. A team fresh from the Rose Bowl should at least keep Mizzou in sight—if not win outright.

ILLINOIS

5. Fla-Atl +24 at Texas

FAU has been talking big. They claim UT isn’t tough.
Know what? They are right. At home, UT will win. Not by 24.

FAU

6. No Texas +24.5 at k-state

k-state beat someone by 24.5?

Maybe this team.

k-state

7. Utah +3.5 at Michigan

Utah is getting a lot of play as a team that can take out Michigan in Ann Arbor. Like they are Appalachian St or something. Using the same “rationale” as in Game No. 2:

MICHIGAN

8. Washington +13.5 at Oregon

This is a lot of points to give to an ex-Golden Domer.

Washington

9. Va Tech -10 at East Carolina

Va Tech is awesome, Baby! How else could they have stayed within 3 of KU (10 had we not taken a knee at the goal line) in the Orange Bowl?

VA TECH

10. Michigan St +5 at California

Cal at Berkeley. Playing a Big 10 team—any Big 10—team. Yeah, I’ll give 5 and ½.

CAL

11. Alabama +5.5 at Clemson

Flipping a coin comes up Bam. Throwing a dart comes up Bama. Drawing for high card comes up Bama. I’ll go with:

CLEMSON

12. Idaho +27.5 at Arizona

One of the foremost authorities on the Big Sky assures me that if Utah St is not the worst team in the country, Idaho is.

AU

13. Kentucky +4 at Louisville

Louisville is simply the better program. And they have the revenge factor.

UL

SATURDAY:

14. Colorado -11 vs. Colo St

CU is on its way up. They are not to the point yet where they should be expected to rout its archrival on a neutral field. CSU always plays the Buffs tough.

CSU

SUNDAY:

15. Tennessee -7.5 at UCLA

The Bruins atone for their basketball counterparts’ loss to a team from Tennessee in SA. To the extent that covering the spread constitutes atonement.

UCLA

–Mark

***As in past years, these picks are for entertainment valus only. There are no guarantees. There are no refunds.

Alert Phog-bloggians might have noticed that nothing has been posted on this site for more than four months.

There is a reason for this. Anything that could have been said after the initial blush of the wonderfulness that was April 7, 2008 would only serve to hasten the passing of the moment.

But the time for moving on can wait no longer.

ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!!!!!!

Of course you are.

Normally, I treat the coming of a new football season as a religious experience, as the dawn of a bright new day following four months of sports darkness. As a general rule, announcing the coming of a new season of the greatest sport in the history of mankind makes me feel like Elmer Gantry: “What is love? Love is a touchdown and a two point conversion.”

This year, I am a bit more subdued. The reason? Because it is time to move on from the second best sports year that any university has ever enjoyed.

Forty-nine and four. Let me say that again: The combined record of the Jayhawk football and basketball teams was forty-nine and freakin’ four.

That’s 12-1 in football, with an Orange Bowl victory over the No. 3 ranked team in the nation.

That’s 37-3 in basketball, with a National Championship.

When you are old and grey-haired (for those who currently have hair), you will look back on the 2007-08 sports year as the halcyon of Kansas athletics. It will not be topped—or even equaled—in a hundred years, let alone your miserably short lifetime, Mortal.

So why bother? Why not turn your thoughts to other endeavors, like solving global warming or learning a foreign language? Everything on the gridiron and basketball court is now anti-climactic. Why not just rage, rage against the dying of last year’s light? Why not just hold on to the gloriousness of the past sports year, keeping it fresh in your heart, as long as possible? Why allow lesser moments in to slowly, but surely move last year’s moments of exhilaration aside, to a compartment where they will reside merely as pleasant thoughts to bring a smile to your face, as opposed to the feelings of sheer ecstasy you have enjoyed for months?

WHAT’S AT STAKE?

First of all, that’s life. Just enjoy the fact that only one school has ever exceeded KU’s most recent sports year.

Second, even that remarkable year left a few loose ends to be tied.
Fortunately, in a sense, the Jayhawks did not go undefeated in both sports last year. They did leave something for this year. While losing only four games total, two of them were to arch-rivals k-state and Mizzou.

Although the loss to k-state was in basketball, the Jayhawks must win this year’s football encounter to avoid a losing record in the two sports combined to k-state for the 2008 calendar year.

As for Mizzou, a victory is a must to prevent them from catching up in the all-time series, as well as even up the last six years. Not to mention evening the score in Arrowhead at 1-1. Not to mention the vengeance thing.

Further, this is KU’s best chance to win in Lincoln since 1968, after absolutely frittering away the game two years ago. I know a 58 year old gentleman, who can now order off the senior menu at some restaurants, who was a freshman at KU the last time the Jayhawks downed Nebraska on the Road.

There is also the matter of grabbing the Hawks’ first recognized win over Texas in Big 12 play, what with dishonest officiating depriving the Fighting Manginos of their victory on the field of play four years ago.

And don’t forget that KU was slighted last year in the respect department because of the Jayhawks’ schedule–even though it was every bit as difficult as Ohio State’s, and their overall resume was better than the Buckeyes’ (who lost a Home game for chrissake). Yet Ohio St was ranked No. 2 and played for the pretend national championship, while KU was ranked No. 8 and assigned to the Orange Bowl. Not that the Orange Bowl is a bad consolation prize. It was a fantastic moment for long-suffering KU football fans. And not to say that we would have beaten LSU in the pretend national championship game. We wouldn’t have. But we also would not have been embarrassed any more than—if as much as—than Ohio St.

The point is not that we were the best team in the country. The point is that we were better than Ohio St on paper (and, probably, on the field), yet were still ranked six spots lower than the Buckeyes heading into the bowl games. Heck, we were still ranked behind them after beating the No. 3 team in the country, while Ohio St got run out of the Superdome like they were a Division 2 team.

So, to the extent that you value the uncritical respect of the media types who place more weight on team names than performance, this season is important in establishing that KU has moved on from the days of Terry Allen—and every other coach it has ever had—and is a player in Memorial Stadium as well as Allen Fieldhouse.

2008 SEASON PREVIEW

There are those who have discounted KU before the 2008 season has even started because of the Jayhawks’ “tougher schedule” this year. It was, in fact, characterized in today’s USA Today as “much more demanding.”

Wrong.

This myth is the based on the false premise that playing Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma (the top 3 South teams) is “much more demanding than playing A&M, Okie St, and Baylor.

If all games were played on neutral fields, this might be a reasonable conclusion (except for the fact that A&M and Okie St were tied for third place in the South with the same 4-4 record in conference play as Tech—and they were only one game behind Texas, despite A&M playing both of the North Division co-champions and Okie St playing one, while Texas played neither. Instead, Texas got slaughtered at Home by North also-ran k-state, and needed a miracle fourth quarter at Home to avoid losing to a mediocre Nebraska team. And who can forget—other than the talking heads–the miracle finish the Longhorns needed to squeeze by Okie St on a field goal as the final gun sounded?)

But, let’s pretend that Texas and Tech were better than Okie St and A&M last year. Takes a healthy imagination, but give it a shot. Even if that were the case, playing Texas and Tech in Lawrence this year is no more demanding than playing Okie St in Stillwater (where Tech lost) and A&M in College Station (where UT lost) last year.

Of course, KU’s schedule is more difficult this year, but not because the hawks replace A&M and Okie St with Texas and Tech. It is more difficult because Oklahoma in Norman is a “much more demanding” challenge than Baylor in Lawrence. That’s it in conference play.

As for the non-conference front, the game at South Florida—a team that took out Auburn on the Road last year—is also more demanding than any out of conference game, all of which were in Lawrence, in 2007. Expect South Florida to be ranked and hungry to knock off the Orange Bowl champions. The other non-con opponents—all in Lawrence—are no more dangersou than last year’s.

So what is in store for this year’s version of the Jayhawks? Will they go 12-1 and to a BCS Bowl again? Or even 14-0 and hold the pretend national championship in football at the same time that their roundball brothers are defending National Champions of the hardcourt?

Or will they fall to the oft-predicted 8-4, or (horror of horrors) even 7-5 and a lowly Independence bowl berth, courtesy of their “much more demanding” schedule?

Here is my projection of the Vegas lines for 2008:

August 30: Florida International: 30+ point favorite
Sept. 6: Louisiana Tech: 20 point favorite
Sept. 12: at South Florida: 2.5 point favorite
Sept. 20: Sam Houston State: 30+ point favorite
October 4: at Iowa St: 12.5 point favorite
October 11: Colorado: 9 point favorite
October 18: at Oklahoma: 8 point underdog
October 25: Texas Tech: 4 point favorite
Nov. 1: k-state: 9.5 point favorite
Nov. 8: at Nebraska: 5 point favorite
Nov. 15: Texas: 3 point favorite
Nov. 29: vs. Mizzou: 4 point underdog

My pre-season predictions as to the likelihood of a Jayhawk victory in each game:

August 30: Florida International: 1.0 (i.e., 100%)
Sept. 6: Louisiana Tech: .95
Sept. 12: at South Florida: .6
Sept. 20: Sam Houston State: 1.0
October 4: at Iowa St: .8
October 11: Colorado: .8
October 18: at Oklahoma: .3
October 25: Texas Tech: .7
Nov. 1: k-state: .8
Nov. 8: at Nebraska: .85
Nov. 15: Texas: .7
Nov. 29: vs. Mizzou: .6

This projects to a 9.1-2.9 record, meaning 9-3 is likely, but leaving the Hawks one or two breaks (good or bad) away from 10-2 or 8-4. 5.75-2.25 (6-2) in conference play.

South Florida will be formidable because this will be their chance to shine on national TV on a Friday night in a game that will have the country all to itself. They will also be out to make a name for themselves over a highly ranked Big 12 team. And they will be at Home. In fact, I would rate this game as a tossup, except that the Jayhawks are now comfortable on the big stage, comfortable on the Road, and learned last year how to finish—a skill set that would have turned 2006 from a 6-6 regular season into 10-2.

KU is loaded with incentives for the Nebraska and UT games, as mentioned above. Payback time. At least to the extent that one game can repay the pain KU has suffered at the hands of the the Huskers and Horns over the years.

And Tech? Another tough opponent, but probable W for the Hawks at Home. Don’t think for a minute that The Big M will let his team forget the big lead the 2004 Jayhawks squandered against the Red Raiders, turning a certain W into an L. Unlike the Texas game, it was a legitimate L–the Hawks had no one other than themselves and their inability to close to blame. Rather than payback, let’s call this game one of redemption.

Which takes us back to Elmer Gantry: “What is love? Love is a win on November 29 in Arrowhead.” All those who believe, acknowledge or renew your devotion to the cause and head for Kansas City in late November to bear witness to your faith at the Jayhawk Revival.

Yes, in August, it must be conceded that Mizzou will likely be the Vegas favorite three months hence. But betting favorites don’t always win.

Last year, both teams came out so intimidated by the big stage that it was clear that the first team to experience success, to loosen up first, would have an advantage. That team was Mizzou. KU dropped passes, Touchdown Todd’s gloved hand was out of synch with his receivers, and the Hawks missed out on an early six points with ill-fated field goal attempts. When the Hawks finally overcame their stagefright, they scored TD’s on four straight possessions. Looked like déjà vu of the Nebraska game. And they were down by but the six points they had failed to convert in field goals.
But, of course, they ran out of time.

This year, both teams should be comfortable on the big stage from the word “go.” But it is the Jayhawks who will have the psychological edge in this game between evenly matched teams. As well as two weeks to prepare. Yes, Mizzou has the same two weeks to prepare. But only the Jayhawks have Mangino. If both teams are healthy, the coaching edge goes to the Jayhawks. The incentive/coaching combo advantage makes this game a probable W for KU.

As for the Jayhawk Bowl game?

Well, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Somewhere deep inside the Kansas Department of Revenue, oily haired tax collectors are licking their chapped lips and watching sales tax receipts pour in like so much confetti from the AlamoDome’s vaulted ceiling.

Here at the Phog Blog, we’re risking a tax extension to bring you a compendium of the best YouTube videos of the Hawks’ March through Madness, and the absolute pandemonium that summarily ensued. Sure you could go to YouTube and watch, and watch, and watch, but think of this as your quick fix. Special thanks to PekkaMarkkanen at phog.net for the inspiration to compile.

For your viewing pleasure, these vids are all higher resolution than what your standard YouTube video will provide. If I’ve missed any great ones, I am certainly up for adding, so email us with the link and we’ll get it up if it’s good enough to make the cut. If you have a great video and you need help getting it online, let us know as well.

10. Final Seconds of Davidson Game

It’s not a great video, but it’s the best fan-shot video of the last seconds of KU’s win against Davidson, and it’s an angle that few have seen before. What defense! What drama! Richards’ shot seems to last about one one thousandth as long here as it did when I watched it the first time! If Mario’s heave is “The Shot,” then Richards’ is “The Miss.” Without that Miss, we are not here.

9. Last 10 Seconds of North Carolina Victory

Fans inside AFH count down KU’s victory over Roy Williams’ UNC Tarheels. Love the countdown, love the guy in glasses in the background. Allen Fieldhouse fans would double for the Championship game.

8. Mass Street Post UNC

Let the random high fiving begin. Want to know what commuting looked like in the 1600’s? Watch this video, then subtract shoelaces, breathable fabrics, full sets of teeth and about 35 years of life expectancy, oh, and also subtract the happiness. People in the olden days weren’t happy.

7. CBS Broadcast of The Shot

I’ve only seen this shot on YouTube. I still haven’t gotten to watch the game broadcast. Nantz nails the call. What a moment! Jayhawk fans will get to relive this for years to come as Coke Zero or whatever the next iteration of Diet Coke is, appropriates Mario’s heroics to shill carbonated cola beverages.

6. The Shot from Section 121

This is getting a special dispensation since it’s basically where I watched the game from. It’s a great lateral angle on The Shot and you can see the bench on the opposite side of Mario. Bonus points for ending the video with a profane utterance of disbelief.

5. The Shot from the Granada

Oh My! The Gra-nasty has seen an endless stream of bumping and grinding, and also Vanilla Ice, but not even he was as cold as the water in Mario’s veins as he cold-cocks Memphis. Love this video.

4. Mass Street from the Rooftops

Unbelievable. Mass Street becomes a raging river of Joy. Half of Lawrence is sick from all the high fiving, hugging, kissing, baby-making, yelling and screaming that went on in a 48 hour period. Oh to be born a Championship baby next January. Reserve your hospital room at LMH now, because it’s going to be tight in there.

3. Allen Fieldhouse for The Shot

Awesome video, maybe my personal favorite. You get to watch the drama of the shot unfold on the big board. And then. Unmitigated, unadulterated, unprecedented expressions of joy. Wow!

2. Allen Fieldhouse for The Victory

It’s easy to dismiss this video as just another crowd video. But I tell you friends, it’s like a good scotch or a good wine, you have to give it some time to breath. For the fast forwarding crowd, go to the 3:40 mark and watch from there. The peals of laughter, the screams, the crowd pouring out onto the court, Where the Streets have no Name busting out to update our NC count to 5! From 3:40 on this is the best, but I had to hold out number one…

1. One Shining Moment

I know it’s CBS, and I know Jayhawk fans often dislike CBS for their constant commercials and their yammering East Coast commentators, but this is KU’s Shining Moment, and we’ve been waiting for it longer than we thought we’d have to. Enjoy!

Indeed from my vantage point, 12 rows back on the end line (thanks to a generous Bruin), I was sure that Mario’s heave was short.

But the shot went in. And here we are, 2008 National Champions.

By and large, life is filled with grey. For every success, innovation or improvement, there’s a an accompanying compromise that we must accept. It’s why so many of us drive cars that look like every other car, and why the siding on our houses has stamped wood grain for the “authentic look.” It’s why most people only kind of like their jobs. And it’s the overwhelming supply of grey in our lives that makes sports so exciting.

Because nowhere in that second and a half of The Shot was there any blending of black and white. There was agony or there was ecstasy, and there was nothing in between.

Away from the action on the court, another story was developing. The NCAA production crew, sensing Memphis’ impending victory, had unboxed the Tigers’ Championship shirts, and had delivered them to the Memphis bench, so the players could wear them as soon as possible. The game was over and everyone knew it, except the five guys wearing Crimson and Blue. Mario’s shot went in and the CBS/NCAA production assistants summarily took them away.

It’s a cruel twist and an insult to injury that Memphis didn’t deserve, but it’s also emblematic of why we watch and why they play. If you can’t lose, it’s no fun to win. And after 19 years of season ending losses, winning is a lot of fun.

Rock Chalk Jayhawk! Congrats to Self and his team. We have entered a new Golden Age of KU Hoops. Enjoy.

BONUS:

This video was shot from within 10 feet of me at the game. HOT HOT HOT.

Enter the PhogBlog Group in the Las vegas Journal-Review March Madness contest.

This one is a little different than most of those going around the internet. Instead of having your Elite 8 or Final Four teams knocked out in the first or second round, resulting in games of no interest to you, you pick each round after the previous round’s games have been played.

In other words, every game counts.

Go to the LVRJ registration page, register, and click on My Groups. Click on “Join Public Group” and search for “PhogBlog.”

Then pick away for Round One.

What do you win?

Pick all games correctly, and the LVJR says it will fork over $100,000. (About the same chance as you would have facing off against Tiger in match play.)

Garner the most points in the PhogBlog group, and you will bask in PB glory for 12 full months.

Good luck. You will need it against the PB’s regular cast of luminarias.

Hint: Take KU in Round 1, and you will be perfect for at least a while, depending on the length of the other Thursday morning games. I promise.

–Mark

Another REAL season has come and gone. By late Sunday evening (Central DAYLIGHT time), the standings you find on-line and in your local newspaper will have merged with the REAL Standings. No one will be at an advantage or disadvantage in games yet to be played because there will be no games yet to be played.

However, while there is still a slate of Big 12 games remaining this weekend, UT maintains a REAL ½ game advantage over KU, as only a projected W remains on its schedule, while the Jayhawks have a losable game in College Station—a venue where A&M trounced UT earlier this season.

UT had a struggle at Home Tuesday night vs. Nebraska—perhaps distracted by missing the local caucus action—but managed, nevertheless, to turn a close game into a Non-Event by picking up their projected victory. KU’s own Non-Event vs. Texas Tech in the biggest slaughter in Big 12 history, meant that the Jayhawks could only tread the REAL Standings water. That will have to wait until Saturday, if at all.

In lower profile NE games, k-state and Mizzou picked up their projected Home W’s vs. Tier 3 Dwellers Colorado and Iowa St.

The two REAL stories of the Midweek slate were OU and A&M winning on the Road vs. other Tier Two teams (Okie St and Baylor), meaning big “plus ones” in the RSP for the Sooners and Aggies.

REAL STANDINGS: 3/6/08

Note: The current breakdown of teams into tiers, which is the only subjective aspect of the REAL Standings is:

Tier One: KU, UT
Tier Two: Baylor, k-state, Mizzou, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Okie St, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Tier Three: CU, ISU

1. 13-3

UT (12-3) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: None

2. 12.5-3.5

KU (12-3) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at A&M

3. 9.5-6.5

k-state (9-6) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at ISU

4. 9-7

OU (8-7) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: None

5. 8.5-7.5

A&M (8-7) Projected L’s: at BU
Losable games: KU

6. 8-8

Baylor (8-7) Projected L’s: at TT
Losable games: None

Tech (7-8) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: None

8. 7-9

OSU (7-8) Projected L’s: at UT
Losable games: None

NU (6-9) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: None

10. 6-10

MU (6-9) Projected L’s: at OU
Losable games: None

11. 4.5-11.5

ISU (4-11) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: ksu

12. 3-13

CU (3-12) Projected L’s: at NU
Losable games: None

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Big XII Weekend Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient) on a 1-4 star scale:

SATURDAY

1. Baylor at Texas Tech (12:30p.m.)***

The Bears are one of four Big 12 teams playing to impress the NCAA selection committee. A loss and an 8-8 record will not help their cause. But Lubbock is not the place to be playing for your post-season life: Tech would be undefeated at Home but for a fluke last minute desperation shot by Oklahoma.

Projected W: Tech

2. Mizzou at OU (2:30p.m.)***

A W here sets the Sooners up nicely with that all important 9th win and a first round bye in K.C.

Projected W: OU

3. k-state at Iowa St (3:00p.m.)***1/2

k-state can punch its ticket to the Big Dance with its tenth conference victory. But make no mistake about it: At Hilton, this is a losable game.

Projected W: Toss-up

4. KU at A&M (3:00p.m.)****

The last meaningful game of the conference season. Unless you are deranged enough to think that Okie St can waltz into Austin and walk out with a Win.

Projected W: Toss-up

SUNDAY

5. Colorado at Nebraska (2:00p.m.)*

Wake me at half-time, so I can turn to Okie St at UT.

Projected W: Nebraska

6. Okie St at UT (3:00p.m.)***1/2

Can Okie St dish out a -1 in the REAL Standings to UT on Senior Day in Austin with at least a share of the Big 12 championship on the line? Not bloody likely. But UT did just squeak by Nebraska Tuesday night by 4 on this same court, where they barely outlasted hapless Colorado by 2 earlier this season. Not to mention surviving OT’s in Stillwater and Ames, and capitalizing on Baylor pulling a Chris Webber to make it out of Waco alive. So maybe, just maybe, UT is more accurately characterized as a resourceful team than an overpowering one. Might be worth looking in on this game, just in case. . .

Projected W: UT

–Mark

On the day before Texas Independence Day, Texas declared independence from the stranglehold it had on the Big 12 title, falling in Lubbock to a Red Raiders team that had lost by 44 points days earlier in College Station to a Texas A&M team that had lost days earlier in Austin by 27. But this game was not in Austin. And what is the prime premise of the REAL Standings? It is that Road games are different from Home games. And so, the Loss in Lubbock, being a Losable game, was hardly a surprise.

Surprise or not, it cost UT ½ game in the REAL Standings, preventing them from virtually wrapping up the Big 12 championship, having no Projected L’s and no Losable game remaining on its schedule.

UT does remain in first place in the REAL Standings, however, with KU having a Losable game yet to play. March 8. College Station. Where Tech fell by 44. Where UT fell by 17.

Where Nebraska won by 6. What’s wrong with this picture?

But, first, KU and UT must take care of business in Home games vs. Tech and Lubbock respectively. As if. . .

Meanwhile, Okie St continued making its move up the Real Standings Ladder, picking up a full game in the RSP with a Road victory at Nebraska—its third consecutive W away from home and its 5th in its last six games overall.

Non-Event games found Projected Home W’s by OU over A&M (10 points in the first half? Are you kidding me?), Baylor over Mizzou, Colorado over Iowa St, and–oh, by the way—KU over k-state (with Beasley outscoring A&M’s entire team 39-37).

REAL STANDINGS: 3/2/08

Note: The current breakdown of teams into tiers, which is the only subjective aspect of the REAL Standings is:

Tier One: KU, UT
Tier Two: Baylor, k-state, Mizzou, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Okie St, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Tier Three: CU, ISU

1. 13-3

UT (11-3) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: None

2. 12.5-3.5

KU (11-3) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at A&M

3. 9.5-6.5

k-state (8-6) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at ISU

4. 9-7

Baylor (8-6) Projected L’s: at TT
Losable games: None

5. 8-8

OU (7-7) Projected L’s: at OSU
Losable games: None

OSU (7-7) Projected L’s: at UT
Losable games: None

Tech (7-7) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: None

8. 7.5-8.5

A&M (7-7) Projected L’s: at BU
Losable games: KU

9. 7-9

NU (6-8) Projected L’s: at UT
Losable games: None

10. 6-10

MU (5-9) Projected L’s: at OU
Losable games: None

11. 4.5-11.5

ISU (4-10) Projected L’s: at MU
Losable games: ksu

12. 3-13

CU (3-11) Projected L’s: at ksu, at NU
Losable games: None

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Big XII Midweek Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient) on a 1-4 star scale:

MONDAY

1. Texas Tech at KU (8:0p.m.)**1/2

After playing Mr. Hyde last week in College Station, Tech played Dr. Jekyll Saturday afternoon vs. UT in Lubbock. On the Road again, expect a Hydeous relapse.

Projected W: KU

TUESDAY

2. NU at UT (6:30p.m.)*1/2

Exhibit 1 for the proposition that the Big 12 should consider adopting a mercy rule.

Projected W: UT

3. Colorado at k-state (8:00p.m.)*

Exhibit 2.

Projected W: k-state

WEDNESDAY

4. Iowa St at Mizzou (7:00p.m.)*1/2

Exhibit 3? That might be stretching it, but it won’t be Bedlam either. . .

Projected W: Mizzou

5. OU at Okie St (7:00p.m.)***1/2

With Okie St coming on strong (5 of their last 6), this game will justify the Bedlam Series moniker.

Projected W: Okie St

6. A&M at Baylor (8:00p.m.)***

These two teams played 65 minutes in College Station. For you Aggies and Bears, that’s longer than a football game.

Projected W: Baylor

–Mark

The major Midweek story, of course, was k-state taking a dive against UT, knowing full well that doing so would visit the ultimate blow to their arch-rivals by knocking KU out of a flat-footed tie with UT in the REAL Standings and dropping the Jayhawks into second place.

Hey, I understand the animosity and all after spending 25 years as the Hawks’—how should I say, delicately, on a blog that might be read by youngsters: as the Hawks’ whipping boys.

Still, you would think Frank Martin, who has the outward appearance of a pit boss veteran, could have been more subtle about it. Letting Beasley ride the pine with the score deadlocked at 50 until UT took firm control of the contest with seven unanswered points. And simultaneously “resting” his second best player, Bill Walker, was nothing short of arrogance. Oh, and Walker—going 0-10 from the field was just plain clumsy. Your job is to create the appearance that you are trying to win the game.

At any rate, UT picked up a full game in the RSP with its W over what was, at the time, a Tier One Team. But no longer. Whether due to incompetence or chicanery, k-state, with a Home loss to go with its four Road setbacks, drops to Tier Two. In fact, with Road games remaining at KU and Iowa St, k-state will likely need to win in Ames just to match last year’s 10-6 conference record—which was not good enough to punch its ticket to the Big Dance.

The other big Weekday winner was Okie St, also picking up a full game in the RSP with its second consecutive Road victory—this one in Columbia–as well as its second consecutive last minute W.

Baylor picked up ½ game with its win at Tier Three CU.

The other three Midweek games were all Non-Events for purposes of the REAL Standings: KU over Third Tier Iowa St in Ames, and A&M and NU at Home vs. Texas Tech and OU respectively.

REAL STANDINGS: 2/29/08

Note: The current breakdown of teams into tiers, which is the only subjective aspect of the REAL Standings is:

Tier One: KU, UT
Tier Two: Baylor, k-state, Mizzou, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Okie St, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Tier Three: CU, ISU

1. 13.5-2.5

UT (11-2) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at TT

2. 12.5-3.5

KU (10-3) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at A&M

3. 9.5-6.5

k-state (8-5) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at ISU

4. 9-7

Baylor (7-6) Projected L’s: at TT
Losable games: None

5. 8-8

OU (6-7) Projected L’s: at OSU
Losable games: None

OSU (6-7) Projected L’s: at MU, at UT
Losable games: None

7. 7.5-8.5

A&M (7-6) Projected L’s: at OU, at BU
Losable games: KU

Tech (6-7) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: UT

9. 7-9

NU (7-7) Projected L’s: at OSU, at UT
Losable games: None

10. 6-10

MU (5-8) Projected L’s: at BU, at OU
Losable games: None

11. 4-12

ISU (4-9) Projected L’s: at CU, at MU, ksu
Losable games: None

12. 3-13

CU (2-11) Projected L’s: at ksu, at NU
Losable games: None

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Big XII Weekend Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient) on a 1-4 star scale:

SATURDAY

1. NU at Okie St (12:30p.m.)***

Nice match up between two teams which, if not red hot, are a bit warmer than Luke.

Projected W: Okie St

2. A&M at OU (1:00p.m.)***

An elimination game for the Big Dance? Not quite, but not far from being one.

Projected W: OU

3. Mizzou at Baylor (3:00p.m.)***

Would you take the Over or Under at 185?

Projected W: Baylor

4. UT at Tech (3:00p.m.)***1/2

For all intents and purposes, KU’s chances of a share of their 51st conference rest on the shoulders of Martin Zeno and Co. The Techsters did not even show up for their first game vs. UT in Austin. However, has a team ever resembled Dr. Jekyll at home and Mr. Hyde on the Road more than this year’s Red Raiders? And they have no incentive to take a dive.

Projected W: None

5. ISU at CU (4:00p.m.)*

This is two years of your life you will never get back. Errrr—make that hours. It will just seem like years.

Projected W: CU

6. k-state at KU (8:00p.m.)****

‘Nuf said.

Projected W: KU

–Mark