Plain Soccer

Premier League Predictions - 2012/13

2012-08-16T01:37:00.000+01:00

The season will start in just a few days. Transfers may still be made, but here are my Premier League Predictions. 1. Man City 2. Man Utd 3. Chelsea 4. Arsenal 5. Liverpool 6. Tottenham 7. Newcastle Utd 8. Everton 9. Fulham 10. Sunderland 11. Stoke 12. West Ham Utd 13. QPR 14. Swansea 15. Aston Villa 16. WBA 17. Wigan 18. Reading 19. Norwich 20. Southampton

Premier League Prediction

2011-08-12T17:19:00.000+01:00

Time to write my Premier League predictions. Here goes:

1) Man Utd - I think this will be a very tough race with the top three all challenging. Ultimately I think Utd will win out.

2) Man City- I only want to see some more playmaking ability in the central midfield, then I'm convinced.

3) Chelsea - Again, this team will challenge in a very tight race. My only concern here is width.

4) Liverpool - A big improvement is expected. I think the big teams will outmatch them in possession at this point and make victories against the best difficult.

5) Arsenal - Fabregas and Nasri seem out. No centre-back was brought in. Yes, they are still better than 75% of the league and will be brilliant, but the loss of Fabregas especially is a huge blow. People continue to underestimate just how good he is.

6) Tottenham Hotspur - Need a forward to partner VDV. Dawson is the only consistent in central defence. Gallas is older and not as good as some claim; King, though brilliant, can only play so often in a good year. We don't know where Modric will end up.

7) Sunderland

8) Stoke City

9) Everton

10) West Bromwich Albion

11) Aston Villa

12) Fulham

13) Bolton

14) Newcastle Utd

15) Blackburn Rovers

16) Norwich City

17) QPR

18) Wigan

19) Swansea

20) Wolverhampton Wanderers - They gained way more points than can be expected against the top half of the table last season. Expect a giant regression in this area, and therefore you end up with a bad team.

2011-2012 Guardian Previews: Arsenal

2011-08-06T15:05:00.004+01:00

With the Premier League start beginning, it's time for previews. Take it away, Amy Lawrence:

Gervinho might prove to be another classic Arsène Wenger bargain, an athletic and pacy ball player raring to step up a level, spirited over from France for a fee that doesn't make a certain manager with a well-documented devotion to cautious housekeeping choke as if he was asked to fix the Greek economy before breakfast.

So if I understand this:
Arsène Wenger may have purchased the rights to pay a footballer named Gervinho, an athlete who is athletic and quick, and a player who was caused to go to England, from France, for an amount of money, that actually was a spirit and not money, that a careful spender, who is often written about, but probably not Wenger (since it would not be in his best interest to choke himself), but an economist who works for the IMF or Germany or some other entity who woke up to realize that he or she had already been asked to complete an exceedingly difficult task in an arbitrary amount of time, but instead is devoting him or herself to the problem, decided to devote him or herself to football analysis, but this economist may not even have been asked because the writer may have just been positing a potential situation, but it is not a potential situation, since the optative voice was not used and this all actually happened, or Wenger may not have paid less than the market value for the player and Gervinho may not be bargain after all.

Spurs Head to Head: Gomes Better than Friedal

2011-08-03T16:39:00.002+01:00

A giant question mark is lodged deeply over the head of Brad Friedal.

This pertains to the new Tottenham signing's performance last season. More explicitly, his performance fell of a cliff. Oh, and Tottenham just signed him and seem prepared to start him ahead of the error-prone but better Heuerelho Gomes.

Let us embark on a statistical head-to-head comparison. First, 2010-2011.

Gomes was so much better. Yes, he made the joint most errors of goalkeepers in the Premier League, but think for two seconds and realize that if goalkeeper G faces 100 shots in a season and saves 10% more than goalkeeper F, who also faces 100 shots, then goalkeeper G is conceding 10 fewer goals than goalkeeper F. If we then say that goalkeeper G makes 3 more errors in a season than goalkeeper F, and that all of goalkeeper G's errors result in conceding goals and none of goalkeeper F's errors result in conceding goals - just hypothetical - then goalkeeper G is conceding 5 fewer goals over the course of a season than goalkeeper F. If we then say that the goalkeepers will face more than 100 shots in a season, then the skill gap between the two is lengthened; Goalkeeper G is conceding even fewer goals than goalkeeper F due to being considerable better at stopping shots.

Now to blow your mind I'll just say that Heurelho Gomes had a save percentage more than 10% better than Brad Friedal last season. His greater propensity for errors don't make much dent in his better "goalkeeping-ness" because he saved a far greater percentage of shots than Friedal. Gomes's skill is shot-stopping. If he makes a stupid error once every 8 games - resulting in conceding one stupid goal every 16 games, or let's be ridiculous and say once every 8 games - but makes a save that Friedal cannot make once every 4 games, then Gomes is stopping more shots and is the better goalkeeper. Well this is the case, overblown massively to the benefit of Friedal, and Gomes is still the better goalkeeper.

In reality, Gomes only made 3 more errors last season than Friedal. Yes, we remember them, and yes, he should not make them, but his shot stopping more than makes up for his error-prone ways vis-a-vis Spurs installing Brad Friedal as the club's new number one goalkeeper. But what about the psychological effect on the club's defenders who feel that they cannot trust Gomes? 3 more errors over a season, really? My only point is this: Install Craig Gordon or Ben Foster - both brilliant goalkeepers who save as well or better than Gomes but without the errors - but not Brad Friedal.

Now it has to be noted that Brad Friedal was an excellent goalkeeper prior to last season. In 09/10, he saved 76%, or 126 of 165 shots, which put him among league leaders. The drop-off in form is perhaps an anomaly, so there is a chance he will come back to being a standout shot-stopper, but he's 40 and single season drop-offs aren't that rare for old athletes, while returning to old form is rare. Spurs installing Friedal as the number 1 over Gomes is a silly move.

Why Wesley Sneijder is Ideal for Man Utd

2011-08-02T18:23:00.005+01:00

Wesley Sneijder is the name on the lips of many a Man Utd fan. Rumours about an upcoming Red Devil bid for the Dutch maestro have been swirling all summer, reaching a peak this week when Sniejder refused to rule out a transfer to the rainy north-west.

One stumbling block to a move appears to be salary, with the Dutchman currently on £250,000 per week, which does not fit into Man Utd's non-Rooney wage structure. However, if he lessens his salary demands, it seems a move may be in place.

Sneijder started his career in the famous AFC Ajax youth system, quickly establishing himself as a world beater. In 2007, he jumped to the riches of Real Madrid before moving two years later to Inter Milan, the club at which he has come of age. There he has dominated the midfield, leading his team to the Serie A, two Copa Italia triumphs, Champions League glory and the World Club Cup.

He has been equally as dominant on the international stage, leading Holland to the final at the 2010 World Cup and on an individual level taking home the Man of the Match Award in no less than four games, including against Brazil, while winning the World Cup Silver Shoe and attaining a place on the FIFA World Cup All-Star Team. He currently is the UEFA Club Midfielder of the Year and stands strong in the middle of the FIFA FIFPro World XI.

So he is a world-class midfielder, a leviathan in world football.

But will he fit into Man Utd's midfield, or more to the point, can he fill the Shaq-sized shoes of the magnificent Paul Scholes? My answer to this is: He is a wiser choice than probably anybody else.

The first point I want to add in support of this is that, along with winning almost every personal and team award, he is an ideal character. He has no record of Joey Bartons (antagonizing managers, coaches, players, fans, people in general), no record of sparking dressing room discontent, no record of off-the-field antics that bring tension to on-the-field matters. He's a footballer who gets on with doing his job of succeeding on the pitch, so he's kind of ideal in this regard, and this is important.

Now let us get to the statistics. We're going to examine his performances for Inter Milan in the Serie A for 2010/2011, so the latest on record:

Games: 25

Minutes: 1999

Shots: 107

Shots on Target: 33

Goals: 4

Chances Created: 72

Assists: 5

Crosses: 154

Attempted Passes: 1503

Successful Passes: 1284

Attempted Passes in Opposition Half: 1389

It is important to say first that these are reflective of the game of Serie A, which gives more spaces in midfield and less space closer to opposing penalty boxes than the Premier League.

One major criticism of a move for Sneijder is that the player is not a playmaking central midfielder in the way that Paul Scholes has been for the past six or so years, but is rather a classic trequartista.

As said by Louise Taylor at the Guardian, "Trequartista, the Italian for three-quarters, has come to encapsulate an exquisite breed of footballer rarely found in England, whose natural habitat is the hole between central midfield and attack. Generally reliant on imagination and incision rather than speed and strength, these quintessential No10s are not quite secondary strikers but rather attacking playmakers occupying advanced, as opposed to deep-lying, roles."

And a classic trequartista Sniejder indeed is. Of his 1503 attempted passes last season, an incredible 1389, or 92%, were in the opposition team half. He has not been asked to drop back to collect the ball but rather receive it from deeper lying midfielders and serve as the link to the attack.

This raises a tactical challenge for Sir Alex Ferguson in that he does not seek a trequartista - he has Rooney in the hole - but a deeper lying central midfield playmaker in the manner of Paul Scholes, who as every football fan knows does return all the time to collect the ball.

So will Sneijder be asked to adapt his game to that of Man Utd and can he adapt his game to that of Man Utd?

The answer to the first part of the question is clear. Yes, Wesley Sneijder will be asked to adapt his game to that of Man Utd. Sir Alex demands a strong central midfield and will demand from the his new central midfield playmaker a role similar to that of Paul Scholes, which means lying deep, reading the game and controlling the game. And just so all are sure, Sneijder knows this too. He knows how Man Utd play and his role should he be on the team. More than this, he probably is very aware that his game will need to adapt to such a role as he moves into his late 20s and 30s, and so it seems the perfect situation for him.

The answer to the second part of the question is less clear, but for me is not too ambiguous. And just to add, Paul Scholes was a much more attacking player in the beginning of his career. He adapted his game to the demands of Sir Alex and his age. The common thread - the reason he could adapt so comfortably - was that he had incredible ability to read the game in tight spaces and incredible vision.

Wesley Sneijder played trequartista and attempted more than 1300 passes in the opposition half with an 80%+ success rate in a league famous for not granting space close to opponent penalty areas. That he could find the ball and play it off at such a high success rate in such a tight zone is amazing, and distinguishes him from other central midfielders who often can collect it in much more open zones. This tells us that Sneijder has an incredible eye for reading the game and incredible vision on the ball. It is such an eye and vision combined with a team-oriented personality that can adapt to the demands of the deep lying midfield role.

Just to be clear, buying Sneijder, as every player, has an element of risk. He will be asked to play a deeper lying role than ever before in his career and face the pressure of replacing an Old Trafford great. This won't be easy. But what distinguishes Sneijder from others is far more than personality alone. Personality-wise, he seems ideal, a perfect fit for Man Utd - one who will not call out his bosses or teammates or complain about his role but rather one who will be a superb footballer. Yet his game reads as one who will be able to adapt to the Paul Scholes role better than almost anybody else out there. He can find the ball in tight spaces; he can find teammates in tight spaces; he can play more attacking when called upon to do so; he will play deeper when called upon to do so. He is a world-beating footballer who has won almost every award out there.

Sneijder the trequartista is the wisest choice to fill the shoes of Paul Scholes.

Addendum: Just to add some more info, Sneijder created 72 goalscoring chances, or one every 27.7 minutes of play last season, which is in the territory of that of Fabregas (1 every 25) and Xavi (1 every 27) over recent seasons. He's a creator. However if he joins Man Utd expect this rate to drop back quite a bit as he will be demanded to play a deeper playmaking role. The "chances created" stat is misleading, as many in soccer are, due to the diversity of responsibilities of players, but we do learn the depth of the creative instinct and skill of Sniejder by seeing the group of players within which he operates.

Thinking "'Outside the Box" in the Modric Transfer

2011-08-01T15:57:00.015+01:00

Luka Modric really, really wants to leave Tottenham. Spurs Number 2 Kevin Bond now publicly acknowledges that the unhappy player may leave if a bid matches the club's valuation of the player.

The scenario floating around the newspapers is a straight cash deal for Modric. Modric in exchange for money, giving Spurs cash to pursue other players in the transfer market. What I want to say is that this would be stupid business on Spurs's end. Modric is a player that possesses immense leverage in world football and so, if a club has to sell him, use his leverage for all it is worth, and that means for more than money.

I previously wrote that, if I were managing Spurs' transfers, I would be demanding Gael Kakuta/Josh McEachran + Daniel Sturridge + cash in exchange for Modric, bringing the potential for future midfield creativity and goalscoring. But this is not the only option. It only gets at what I'm talking about.

Playmaking midfielders of Modric's class are a precious commodity that help a team win games and in so doing are valuable, very valuable. So, if you have such a player, use him for all the leverage he has, and I mean all of it. There are only a few players of such skill on the planet, meaning a club will find it immensely difficult to go out a buy one. Selling clubs will demand huge money or, if they are in an all-or-nothing pursuit of medals, and this is big, a better player in the same position who can better assist the immediate pursuit of medals.

Moreover, as a side-point of importance, Third-party clubs will know full well that any money Spurs offer for a player is Modric money, so will up asking price for a playmaking central midfielder.

These are the reasons why Spurs must do as I am saying. Modric is a player who can be used not only to feed bank accounts, but to feed talent, which feed bank accounts longterm. In owning his contract, Spurs possess leverage in world football. And if a club will sell such a player, sell him properly, getting fair exchange in replacement talent. Tie this to the deal, guaranteeing it.

To be frank, I don't see any point in doing this deal with Chelsea without demanding McEachran or Kakuta + Sturridge - Chelsea know that Modric will assist their immediate pursuit of the Premier League and Champions League much more than any of these three - or telling Chelsea to fund a deal on Spurs' behalf with a third party club and demanding this third party player + cash (determined by Spurs's valuation of the third party player relative to Modric) for Modric. Dig in and use your leverage, Tottenham.

Yet the most likely scenario - the one floating around newspapers - continues to be a straight cash deal. Spurs fans should be abhorring such a deal for the simple reasons that 1) Spurs don't improve or face the prospect of improving with such a deal; and 2) Third party clubs will up their transfer demands for any Tottenham offer for a playmaking midfielder; 3) In not making my deal, Spurs lose potential future assets and thus, in an inflation friendly transfer market, future money. All in all, it will be a failure of using leverage to improve the team and potential longterm financial goals.

The only way around this is for Spurs to be creative in negotiating the sale of Modric. Use his huge leverage in football to tie his sale to the bringing in of talent. Either demand Chelsea youth - as I proposed above - or negotiate a transfer with a third party club for a young player - let's call him player x - and tie that deal to the Modric transfer in accordance with Spurs's valuations of the player relative to Modric.

Use the sale of Modric as an opportunity to improve!

Addendum: As a sidenote, I will argue that say Josh McEachran or Gael Kakuta does not want to go to Spurs, and that is a real possibility as Spurs are a smaller club than their current club, the added push of Chelsea saying, "You have to go, we demand it," which can come from Tottenham demanding their return in exchange for Modric is important. Spurs can get better players than they otherwise perhaps could simply by using the Modric leverage properly.

A Luka Modric Deal

2011-07-20T16:33:00.005+01:00

Luka Modric is rumoured to have submitted a second written transfer request to Tottenham.

My feeling on the situation is that the player signed a contract for Tottenham and thus agreed to fulfull his end of that contract, which obliges him to play for Tottenham for the duration of that contract. If another club wants the player, they may submit a bid to Tottenham. If the bid is deemed acceptable, Spurs may give Modric the opportunity to discuss personal terms with the bidding club.

The challenge Spurs face is that Modric is trying to escape his contract. He desperately wants to leave and is pressuring Spurs to accept a bid from Chelsea to allow him to move to south London. He is Spurs' best midfielder, one of the best central midfield playmakers around. He is worth a heck of a lot of money to the club and it's fans, more than what Chelsea currently seem prepared to offer.

The scenario is clear from Tottenham's end: Modric has a value to the team/company; If Chelsea meet that value, then Spurs will allow the player to discuss personal terms with Chelsea.

But Spurs have not, at least publicly, stated what they consider to be fair value for Modric, and there is a reason for this, and it is detrimental to the ambitions of the player. There have not been many transfers so far this summer. Clubs in general seem really unsure about value in the market, and what players are going for seems massively inflated even vis-a-vis theoretical "win-it-all" profit potential from a signing, and this can be considered detrimental to Modric. He is at the whims of a transfer market which has not determined price borders, and in this economic environment a transfer is really difficult to work out.

In this inflated market, one precedent has perhaps been set. A player who lets his contract run down gains more transfer bargaining power, and has more power to force a move. Young did this with Aston Villa, forcing a move to Man Utd. Nasri is attempting this at Arsenal, trying to gain a move away from the Emirates. In these situations, the selling club has less wiggle room - it risks losing the player for nothing in the near future - and so a transfer price is easier to determine.

Modric, however, is nowhere near his contract expiry and so has little power. He relies on the uncertain market.

To end, just for fun, I will add what I would do if I were Spurs' transfer negotiator. If I figured that Modric will be leaving but that Chelsea are not offering what I deem him to be worth, I'd propose a swap deal that will save Chelsea money but bring to Spurs massive potential value. Increased risk for Spurs but, for me, worth it. How about this?

Luka Modric for Daniel Sturridge + Gael Kakuta or Josh McEachran + Cash

Chelsea get by far the better addition of talent over the next two seasons, but Spurs get potentially aggregate better talent in the long-term. Daniel Sturridge can score goals. He must improve his broader passing, defensive and off-the-ball game, but he scores - something none of Spurs's forwards can do. While Gael Kakuta is the beholder of brilliant unrefined talent. He may be a bust, but could easily turn out to be a great attacking central midfielder, perhaps a replacement for Modric.

Xavi Interviews

2011-02-11T14:31:00.005Z

Spain and Barcelona midfielder Xavi has given a series of interviews ahead of Barcelona's Champions League match-up with Arsenal.

Xavi is the best midfielder in the world. I'd rather have him on my team than any other player in the world excluding Messi an Ronalo. What is remarkable about Xavi is that his skill lies not in goalscoring but in his extraordinary passing ability. He is the perfect passer.

All students of football should study him along with Scholes and Fabregas. Watch their movement toward the ball, watch their head movements when they receive the ball, watch where they direct the ball. Consider why they do what they do and how you can adapt that to your game. As Xavi says on youth development,

"Some youth academies worry about winning, we worry about education. You see a kid who lifts his head up, who plays the pass first time, pum, and you think, 'Yep, he'll do.' Bring him in, coach him. Our model was imposed by [Johan] Cruyff; it's an Ajax model. It's all about rondos [piggy in the middle]. Rondo, rondo, rondo. Every. Single. Day. It's the best exercise there is. You learn responsibility and not to lose the ball. If you lose the ball, you go in the middle. Pum-pum-pum-pum, always one touch. If you go in the middle, it's humiliating, the rest applaud and laugh at you."

I also enjoyed what Xavi said about Paul Scholes,

"Paul Scholes! A role model. For me – and I really mean this – he's the best central midfielder I've seen in the last 15, 20 years. I've spoken to Xabi Alonso about him. He's spectacular, he has it all: the last pass, goals, he's strong, he doesn't lose the ball, vision. If he'd been Spanish he might have been rated more highly. Players love him."

English football coaching culture is adapting to focus more on possession football and this is such a positive move. All you have to do is think of the best teams in the world and whether they are possession-focussed teams. Yes, they are. Well Paul Scholes will go down in the English football history books as the first English midfielder who not only adopted a European possession approach to midfield play but excelled as one of the best players in the world. It is true what Xavi says that Scholes probably would have been rated higher had he been Spanish or Italian, but I hope that Scholes will have a more long-lasting impact in English football culture.

Students, always look to get open and call for the ball; before you receive it, look up to know where your teammates are; make sure your team keeps that ball.

A Look At Scoring Efficiency

2011-01-30T00:59:00.021Z

My last post on Wayne Rooney got me thinking about shooting efficiency.

As supporters we want our club to have players that maximize use of chances, in effect, score goals. Goals are delicious not in the same way that aged cheese is delicious but in the way in that they lead to wins and make us happy.

I wrote that Rooney is not an efficient shooter and that this is not where his value lies. This obviously raises two questions:

1) What makes an efficient shooter?

2) Prove to me that Rooney is an inefficient shooter?

Oh my, that is a challenge, but one for which I have answers.

To respond to the first question, an efficient shooter is a player who scores on a high percentage of attempts. If your club has a player that does this then he is an efficient shooter. If your club has a player who scores on a low percentage of attempts then he is an inefficient shooter.

As a side note, I am not saying that an inefficient shooter is a terrible scorer. Scoring depends on both a player's ability to get in position to attempt a shot and the percentage of those attempts he finishes, but low efficiency often results from a player frequently shooting when it would be better not to shoot. The players who are good at getting in a top shooting position (think Ruud van Nistelrooy) usually take high efficiency shots and so are efficiency scorers, while players who take low efficiency shots usually shoot when not in an optimum position to score.

Now back to the main topic. What many fans will call Wayne Rooney's best season - 2009/10 - consisted of Rooney scoring on 12.36% of attempts on goal from 178 total shots, resulting in 22 goals (penalties excluded). This may sound impressive, but, when we look at the percentage of actual goals per attempt, it really isn't.

In fact, one could easily say that Rooney is a more efficient team player if he takes fewer shots. Last season, he took many more shots than usual and had 22 goals (penalties excluded), but he had much fewer assists than in other seasons (3 assists in 2009/10 compared with 41 in his previous 4 seasons, so his assists dropped by 67% from his average). He shot instead of passing. We can see from this that for a player such as Rooney who is not a high efficiency scorer, he may increase his team's production by taking fewer shots and passing more frequently.

Well the point of this post is to show that Rooney is indeed a comparatively inefficient shooter under the scrutiny of a per-shot analysis. You want evidence? Well, here you go, a ranking by shooting efficiency of twenty random forwards in the Premier League.

1. Javier Hernandez (2010 - 2011)

Total Shots: 31

Goals (non-penalty): 7

Goals per shot percentage: 22.6%

2. Fernando Torres (2007 - 2011)

Total Shots: 348

Goals (non-penalty): 65

Goals per shot percentage: 18.7%

3. Robbie Keane (2002 - 2011)

Total Shots: 480

Goals (non-penalty): 85

Goals per shot percentage: 17.7%

4. Gabriel Agbonlahor (2005 - 2011)

Total Shots: 271
Goals (non-penalty): 47
Goals per shot percentage: 17.3%

5. Darren Bent (2005 - 2011)
Total Shots: 403
Goals (non-penalty): 68
Goals per shot percentage: 16.9%

6. Dimitar Berbatov (2006 - 2011)

Total Shots: 402
Goals (non-penalty): 66
Goals per shot percentage: 16.4%

7. Emmanuel Adebayor (2005 - 2011)

Total Shots: 305
Goals (non-penalty): 49
Goals per shot percentage: 16.1%

8. Marouane Chamakh

Total Shots: 4
Goals (non-penalty): 7
Goals per shot percentage: 15.1%

9. Asamoah Gyan

Total Shots: 48
Goals (non-penalty): 7
Goals per shot percentage: 14.8%

10. Andy Carroll (2010 - 2011)

Total Shots: 75
Goals (non-penalty): 11
Goals per shot percentage: 14.7%

11. Didier Drogba (2004 - 2011)

Total Shots: 634
Goals (non-penalty): 90
Goals per shot percentage: 14.2%

12. Carlos Tevez (2006 - 2011)

Total Shots: 443
Goals (non-penalty): 61
Goals per shot percentage: 13.8%

13. Kevin Phillips (2002 - 2010)

Total Shots: 260

Goals (non-penalty): 35

Goals per shot percentage: 13.5%

14. Kevin Davies (2003 - 2011)

Total Shots: 430
Goals (non-penalty): 58
Goals per shot percentage: 13.5%

15. Nicolas Anelka (2002 - 2011)

Total Shots: 663
Goals (non-penalty): 88
Goals per shot percentage: 13.1%

16. Andy Johnson (2004 - 2011)

Total Shots: 268

Goals (non-penalty): 34

Goals per shot percentage: 12.7%

17. Jermain Defoe (2004 - 2011)

Total Shots: 540
Goals (non-penalty): 64
Goals per shot percentage: 11.9%

18. Robin van Persie (2004 - 2011)

Total Shots: 424
Goals (non-penalty): 49
Goals per shot percentage: 11.6%

19. Wayne Rooney (2004 - 2011)

Total Shots: 833

Goals (non-penalty): 88

Goals per shot percentage: 10.6%

20. Johan Elmander (2008 - 2011)

Total Shots: 173
Goals (non-penalty): 17
Goals per shot percentage: 9.8%

My point about shooting efficiency is clear. Rooney ranks 19 of 20 random Premier League forwards in shooting efficiency.

What do we learn? The King of efficient shooting is Javier Hernandez, King Javier. He is more likely to score when presented with an opportunity than any other top Premier League striker. Second, to nobody's surprise, is the lethal Fernando Torres, followed by Robbie Keane.

As I said, Rooney is not the most efficient scorer when examined in a per-shot analysis. His efficiency - and I should add that I'd rather have Rooney on my team than anybody else on the above list - lies in his treble ability to score AND contribute to the midfield AND assist, which we can examine in more detail in another post. If he did not do the latter two and saw himself solely as a shooter he would probably not be in the Premier League.

Wayne Rooney Will Score Again

2011-01-29T21:41:00.005Z

Wayne Rooney's goalscoring failures have boggled everyone this season.

He scored 26 goals last season. So far this season, just 2. This has led many of ask to ask: Will this change be permanent? Is Man Utd's rich forward now a non-scorer?

Well a player's history is usually a good indicator of future progress, so let's do the intelligent thing and actually examine Rooney's goalscoring history, which will allow us to make a prediction on his goalscoring future.

2010/11
Shots per 90 minutes: 3.8
Total Shots: 45
Shots on Goal: 17 (38%)
Goals (non-penalty): 1
Goals per shot percentage: 2.22%

2009/10
Shots per 90 minutes: 5.9
Total Shots: 178
Shots on Goal: 54 (30%)
Goals (non-penalty): 22
Goals per shot percentage: 12.36%

2008/09
Shots per 90 minutes: 4.9
Total Shots: 123
Shots on Goal: 40 (33%)
Goals (non-penalty): 12
Goals per shot percentage: 9.76%

2007/08
Total Shots: 104
Shots on Goal: 69 (66%)
Goals (non-penalty): 12
Goals per shot percentage: 11.54%

2004/05
Total Shots: 111
Shots on Goal: 70 (63%)
Goals (non-penalty): 11
Goals per shot percentage: 9.91%

2006/07
Total Shots: 124
Shots on Goal: 64 (52%)
Goals (non-penalty): 14
Goals per shot percentage: 11.30%

2005/06
Total Shots: 148
Shots on Goal: 73 (49%)
Goals (non-penalty): 16
Goals per shot percentage: 10.81%

Rooney will score goals again. Don't get over anxious. He has been season-over-season pretty consistent in his goals per shot ratio and will in all likelihood revert back to his mean of scoring between 10-12% of his shots, 15 or so goals per season.

Last season was a bit of a statistical anomaly in that he shot the ball much more often than usual and therefore, though his goals per shot ratio was as consistent as ever, he scored more goals. One should not expect Rooney to revert to shooting the ball as often as last season, and hence should not expect as many goals as last season.

What we can expect from Rooney in the future is a 10-12% shots per goal ratio and about 15 goals per season. If he suddenly regains his regular shooting touch tomorrow we can probably expect Rooney to add another 6 goals or so and finish the season with about 8 goals.

The addition that I would like to make is to say that Rooney's value does not and has never lay solely in his goalscoring. He is much less efficient in-front of net than the pure goalscorers in the game. No, Rooney's value lies in the fact that he will score 15 goals per season AND assist on/make another 10-15 for his teammates, a rare team-gaining attribute for a top forward. If you check the stats, you will see that Rooney's assists continue to come Man Utd's way this season, as they do every season. The combination of the two contributes to Rooney being a special player.

Craig Gordon a Potential Star

2011-01-28T15:01:00.005Z

Sunderland goalkeeper Craig Gordon is winning praise from his teammates after consistent excellent performances against the Premier League's top strikers.

Gordon just recently was his team's star performer in a win at Blackpool, denying Luke Varney on a on-on-one and twice acrobatically tipping over efforts from the much wanted Charlie Adam.

The goalkeeper missed games at the beginning of the season due to injury but since his return the 28 year old has conceded just 12 in 12 games. Not only this but over the course of the season, as of January 29, he has a 79% save percentage, ranking second second among all Premier League goalkeepers in arguably the most important statistical category for a goalkeeper. This after Gordon was among the leaders last season.

Experienced Sunderland teammate Bolo Zenden, who has played with many of the best in the games, acknowledges his goalkeeper's importance:

"Craig made three very good saves on Saturday and they all came at crucial times," said Zenden, who played at Blackpool.

"Of course, he will probably say that he is there to make the saves, but he still has to go out there and make them and it's not easy.
"We were all delighted for him and he is doing really well. It's great that he's in form and that we stuck together as a team in front of him and ground out the win."

Boss Steve Bruce's only concern that may come about from having one of the top goalkeepers around is that managers and scouts at the big clubs will no doubt have watched Gordon extensively, know the stats and be keeping a keen eye on his situation. Few Black Cat fans and few technical analysts of the game will be surprised if Bruce's phone rings with inquiries in the near future.

Gordon is relatively young for a goalkeeper, but after a difficult early period in the north-east this is the second season in a row in which the 28 year old has ranked among the best in the Premier League. The stats don't lie. Sunderland fans eyes' don't lie. Sunderland have a potential big shot protecting their net.

Goalkeeper Rankings

2011-01-27T03:06:00.002Z

Premier League Goalkeeper Rankings
January 26, 2011

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Improving Youth Development

2011-01-26T17:37:00.004Z

The Premier League overhaul of youth development is a needed response to the UEFA Financial Fair Play imposition and new EPL rule that all clubs must have a minimum of eight home grown squad members and has the full backing of me and all of my power over English football.

These new rules, which come into effect in the next couple of years, force clubs to invest heavily in developing youth talent.

The most radical and positive change being imposed in this plan is the overhaul of reserve team football and it's replacement by an Under-21 development league. This league, mirroring to a big extent the US College sports system, will set in place a competitive playing field for the best young players in the country that can only better lead to a proper transition to top-flight play.

A second major change coming to the Premier League, though of far less importance than the latter, will be the development of an independent authority to grade club youth academies.

But the point of this article is to make one recommendation for a rule that did not make it's way into the new system, but which I ~~think~~ know would maximize success in youth development, which is what the Premier League ultimately wants: A loan system on youth players.

This is as I imagine it a loan system for players a certain age or over, say 20, who cannot be guaranteed match-time in say 50% of games at their current clubs, but for whom another top-flight club can guarantee match-time in 75% of Premier League games. If a top-club, say Chelsea, cannot offer such match-time to a promising prospect, they should be forced to accept a loan offer from another Premier League club, say Bolton, who guarantees match-time in at least 75% of matches. The player will then have the option of signing with that club on-loan, so knowing he will return in a few months, while knowing he will be playing consistent Premier League football that season.

This rule would benefit all parties. First, the player. The player would get to develop his skills in the top-flight, which is the best place to develop his skills, so he maximizes his development. Second, the club. The club would see it's player develop his skills faster than otherwise and so either he could be transferred to the first-team quicker or sold for greater value than before.

To raise one objection. Some clubs will claim they need their squad size but cannot guarantee playing-time. What I will say in response is that clubs should be allowed to place 'tags' on the top one or two players whom they do not want leaving for a few months, but a second rule should kick in demanding that once these tags are applied the player has to feature in 50% of games as of the following season. If you want youth development, this will do it.

Such a rule will maximize youth development, add value to the players and ultimately benefit the quality on show to fans. I hope such a recommendation can be made to the big voices in the league and enhance the Premier League experience for all of us.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on this recommendation, especially if you are an FA boss.

Spurs Belong in Tottenham

2011-01-21T18:17:00.008Z

As everybody knows, Spurs Chairman ~~Daniel Levy~~ Josiah Bounderby is trying to move the club from it's current location in Tottenham to a brand new state-of-the-art stadium in Stratford, near West Ham in horrible east London.

This proposal actually makes a flabbergasting, finger-tingling amount of financial sense for the club going forward - to summarize in a way for the foggiest of minds out there, bigger stadium = more tickets sold = more revenue = increased ability to buy the best players = increased ability to compete for trophies = increased chance of winning trophies, and oh, they are delicious, almost as delicious as finely aged cheddar - and yet we've all seen on the television Tottenham fans protesting vigorously against the move. And to divert, any cheese companies out there, if you sponsor this site, there will be frequent musings and attestations to your wonders. It will be your worthwhile!

Well, back to the subject at hand, which I gather is still cheese. Wait, I just re-read the first paragraph and it appears cheese was my digression. I've been tricked! Spurs's stadium move is the chief subject of this article. Well, it has come to my attention, well, that or I'm just guessing, that many are wondering why the protest against the stadium move? Do these foppish fans (I saw at least one wearing a suit) realize that the move will increase the possibility of success? Can they envision the tastiness of success? Somerset Applewood, anyone? Alfredo with Gorgonzola?

Spurs fans are agitated because the plan is to move the club from it's current and forever-up-until-now location of Tottenham (hence the name, Tottenham Hotspur) in North London to a new stadium in the degenerate, horrid alleys near West Ham in East London. You can see the spatial gap between the locations here. Its a full 22 minutes by car according to Google Map. More importantly, Tottenham are named Tottenham for a reason. The club is and forever-up-til (sorry, getting lazy)-now is located in actual Tottenham. If the club is moved to somewhere else, how can it still be called Tottenham with logical justification? Clearly, the fans are chiefly angry about the potential for logical fallacy inherent in the club's name.

Second to this, fans are angry in that they feel that the club, being a club that is now and forever-up-until-now is located in Tottenham in North London, belongs to Tottenham in North London and the fans that support the club. I grew up supporting the club in Tottenham because I grew up near the club; I did not support a club in the East End because that is a dodgy area with dodgy people and in which dodgy things happen. I don't identify with any club in the East End. I identify as a Tottenham fan and only as a Tottenham fan. As I aged, I gave money to the club as a Tottenham fan and went to games to see Tottenham in Tottenham; what I did not do is give money to a club in the East End and go to see games in the East End as a fan of an East End club. The point I'm getting at is that if the club leaves, my memories as a Tottenham fan will somehow be left valueless, as if they have been judged not as memories vis-a-vis Tottenham Hotspur in Tottenham but as memories vis-a-vis a faceless, movable franchise outside any geographic, and therefore importantly cultural, values. I, as an individual Tottenham fan, will be seen as meaningless, as will my memories. This assumption by those who want to move the club is, and they do know this, a false assumption. The club, as Tottenham, belongs in the memories of it's supporters who supported it as Tottenham Hotspur, related to the geography and culture of Tottenham and stands of White Hart Land. If it moves, it will belong to a completely new demographic - the relationship between Tottenham and the club will be shattered. New memories will be built, but not as memories of Tottenham. To pull the argument to an extreme the club's owners will be in effect ridiculing the memories of the fans - and the meaning attached to those memories (and it won't be a funny Ricky Gervais or lousy, half-bummed ridicule; it will be one of those ostentatious, Josiah Bounderby type "I'm richer than the value of your memories" ridicules) . 1901, 1921, 1951, 1961...Blanchflower, Mackay, Hoddle, Klinsmann...these all happened at the Lane and were supported by fans who supported Tottenham as the club from Tottenham with the specific culture of Tottenham Hotspur. These were meaningful experiences and deserve recognition as meaningful experiences. Future success is meaningless outside of historical meaning.

Now I have not re-read any paragraph and can only hope that it all makes sense, but to continue, as you have probably gathered the point of this article is to figure out the best way to make fun of Spurs Chairman ~~Daniel Levy~~ Josiah Bounderby for contemplating a stadium move, as well as how best to go about your protest.

Dress for such a protest is optional in the UK but strongly recommended as it is winter and there may be women around. A Spurs jersey will probably be most effective but a training jacket, though less obviously effective, may allow for extended time of protesting due to it's warmth and so either is advisable. Ideally you need both factions to be present at a protest and so fans should ensure that Josiah Bounderby is in the building at which you are protesting and aware of your presence. Do not attend a protest in Cornwall as little will be known of your presence except that you are a bit weird. Likewise, don't protest in your own house and you will have little effect on Mr. Bounderby from such a location and again you'll be a bit weird, just nobody else will know about it.

A question will quickly arise which is what to call Josiah Bounderby. "Mr. Levy" would probably be most likely to garner the oppressor's attention, but it will not be fun shouting such a name and so not recommended. "Levy" is a secondary option that again has a good chance of being effective, though lacks the fun that one expects from the effort of leaving his or her house and going to a location deliberately to protest. Beyond these names, another option is to angrily curse, perhaps wave your arms a little (it's exercise if nothing else). This will surely show the seriousness of your endeavor and justifies the effort taken in attending in the first place, but it may lack effectiveness in getting Bounderby to listen and could lead to public disorder if one fellow protestor takes himself a bit too seriously. Yet another method is to flatter Bounderby. This can usually most effectively be done with a beautiful girl. She can tempt him, cajole him into coming down to talk to her, perhaps with some use of the Song of Songs - it is pretty steamy - and when he does finally attend, expecting to perhaps invite the beautiful lady to dinner, the rest of the protesters can voice their concern directly to him, or she can accept, go for dinner and then discuss the matter of the move with the owner himself. The final option that I will offer here, and the one that I recommend, is to shame Mr. Bounderby, but only if it is done in such a witty way that he sees his actions as having been wrong but nothing beyond (we're not mean spirited, we're angry about a specific issue).

I've taken the liberty of only calling Mr. Bounderby by his rightful name and what I recommend is that the protest movement from hereon only refer to Mr. Bounderby as Mr. Bounderby. Hopefully he'll then feel shame at his actions and remorse by announcing that Tottenham is staying in Tottenham, where the club - and the memories of it's fans - rightfully belongs.

Mr. Bounderby, Tottenham belong in Tottenham!

No to Stratford Hotspur

2011-01-20T19:13:00.003Z

It's important that we all add our voice: No to Stratford Hotspur!

The horrible treatment by ~~Daniel Levy~~ Josiah Bounderby of Tottenham's hard-working and loyal fans through the proposal to sell the club away from its home has to be unequivocally repudiated.

Spurs aren't a franchise, Josiah! The club belongs to the fans.

Now make the statement yourself, Josiah.

1882 and counting. Spurs will live!

Players Getting Bigger, Stronger, Faster, Older

2011-01-20T16:56:00.003Z

"A new study of European club football shows stars are playing on in top-flight leagues for longer and that the average height and speed of players has increased, reports the Sun.

The survey of more than 13,000 players at 534 clubs across 36 leagues by the Swiss-based Professional Football Players Observatory also shows nearly half of players have played outside their home nation in their career.

The PFPO has been compiling data on European clubs since 2005 and co-author Raffaele Poli said: "We are seeing that players in the top leagues are becoming older, faster and getting taller." Poli then joined up for a concert with his friend, Kanye West.

On other points:

SPURS have more internationals than any team in Europe. With 23 on their books they could field two full teams of capped players.

MAN UNITED have the most stable squad in Europe with players staying an average 5.71 years. In contrast, Olympiakos Nicosia of Cyprus are the least stable having signed 95 per cent of their players in 2010.

MAN UNITED keeper Edwin van der Sar is one of a staggering 54 players in Europe's top leagues who started with Ajax. That's more than any other club.

Harry Redknapp

2010-12-01T14:24:00.001Z

Jonathan Wilson has a good article on Harry Redknapp today. Check it out.

Lionnel Messi is No Ordinary Best Player in the World

2010-11-29T22:20:00.004Z

Lionnel Messi is not an ordinary 'best player in the world'.

He is quick. He can glue his feet to the ball at will when he runs. He has such a low centre of gravity that he can spin and turn in the blink of an eye. He sees openings that others don't see. He can force the ball to move to wherever he chooses. He scores more than other players. He assists more than other players. He can't be stopped. Watch and cherish his contribution while you can.

When can we consider the current Barcelona team one of the greatest teams ever, if not the greatest team ever. It is the best team I have ever seen without question.

Premier League Rankings: Wingers

2010-11-20T20:08:00.006Z

Who are the best wingers in the Premier League so far this season?

A note on the results.

1) I placed the focus on attempts created + shots on target (good shots). Take a look at the ratios - some players are shooters first, others clearly passers first.

2) The top 4 - Malouda, Nasri, Milner and Nani - should not surprise anybody. They are all great players. Adam Johnson is fifth, which is good news for both Man City and England fans. I've watched him many times and he shows outstanding ability.

3) Perhaps some expected Bale higher, but remember that this was not a judgment on a player at his best, but of aggregate player results from all games played. I am a massive Bale fan and could not ask anything more from the player. He is 21 years old and, though he may be capable of outperforming everyone else on the list, he must find consistency, like every youngster.

4) With regards to the bottom two, Joe Cole has had a disastrous start to his Liverpool career. He averaged last season around 1.5 attempts created + 0.7 shots on target per game, so Liverpool fans can expect more from him, but never expect Cole to be a superstar. He never has been a superstar. On the other hand, Aaron Lennon is a great dribbler but really inconsistent with his final ball or shot. He can't pass or shoot consistently and that should pose a problem for his employers.

5) Some players have not played enough minutes in the position to be included - Walcott, Kalou, in particular, come to mind. Their results are skewed by matches at forward.

Premier League Rankings: GK Save Percentage, Nov. 12 2010

2010-11-12T18:29:00.003Z

Premier League Goalkeepers by Save Percentage as of Friday November 12, 2010

Top Ten

1. Petr Cech, Chelsea - 90% from 52 shots

2. Joe Hart, Man City - 79% from 48 shots

3. Mark Schwarzer, Fulham - 79% from 42 shots

4. Brad Friedal, Aston Villa - 77% from 63 shots

5. Jussi Jaaskelainen, Bolton - 76% from 49 shots

6. Paul Robinson, Blackburn - 75% from 63 shots

7. Ben Foster, Birmingham - 73% from 63 shots

8. Simon Mignolet, Sunderland - 73% from 45 shots

9. Edwin van der Sar, Man Utd - 72% from 43 shots

10. Tim Howard, Everton - 73% from 41 shots

Some comments:

1) Full marks to Petr Cech. He is shutting down opponents like nothing we've seen in recent years. He has a terrific defense in front of him, one that is limiting opponents to unfriendly opportunities, but this must not take away from Cech. Brilliant!

2) Hart, Schwarzer and Friedal make for no surprise. They are among the Premier League's best goalkeepers every season.

3) It is early days, of course, but there are a few surprises. Notably, Paul Robinson and Jussi have made a great starts to the season and will be looking to maintain consistency going forward. Both have struggled to maintain form so let's hope that they can put together a good season for their teams. On the other hand, Man Utd's Edwin van der Sar is stopping fewer than his mean so far this season..

4) Simon Mignolet has made a terrific EPL start, but the now-fit Craig Gordon has replaced him in goal for Sunderland. Gordon stopped 77% of shots faced last season.

Roberto Mancini Stirs Anger

2010-11-11T14:45:00.004Z

Here are a few observations on happenings around the league.

1. Roberto Mancini: Is he getting on your nerves? He says that the press don't like him because he's Italian, not only lying and indirectly calling the English latently racist but deliberately stirring nationalistic divisions. Roberto, the press jumped to conclusions about your talent because you spent too many millions to count and then lost three in a row, including to Wolverhampton Wanderers and Lech Poznan. I would have thought that you would have already realized that the British Press enjoy jumping to conclusions and attacking people. They do the same to everyone about whom a story will sell papers.

2. Andy Carrol's Impending England Call: England players are professional representatives of their country and have to at least stand for minimal English values. He assaulted his ex-girlfriend, committing an assault on an individual and the most elementary British values. No England team should accept violence against women. Yes, if he is deemed skilled enough, he should be called-up, but only if he publicly renounces violence against women.

3. Lee Cattermole and Steve Bruce: Cattermole's tackle on Luka Modric was appalling, and Steve Bruce's defense of the challenge despicable. You don't defend such a challenge! Yes Modric plays for your opponent, but he is a fellow professional and Cattermole could have destroyed his career.

4. Joey Barton: He punched Morten Gamst Pederson.

5. Nedum Onuoha and Michael Turner: I was really impressed with the two of them at White Hart Lane on Tuesday evening. Onuoha did a fantastic job in stopping Gareth Bale, limiting any space for the winger, while Gareth Turner did a masterful job in central defense.

What Should Liverpool Fans Expect from Damien Camolli?

2010-11-04T15:21:00.004Z

There are two perspectives on Damien Comolli, the new Liverpool Sporting Director.

He is the man who was sacked as Sporting Director of Tottenham Hotspur with the club laying bottom of the Premier League. Current Spurs manager Harry Redknapp has said that he came to Spurs and found the club in shambles.

He is also the man credited with bringing to Spurs Hurelho Gomes, Benoit Assou-Ekotto, Luca Modric, Gareth Bale and Roman Pavlyuchenko. You can guess the current combined transfer value of these players - it is probably in the region of £80m - but this value can be added to the £20m profit Spurs already made from Dimitar Berbatov, another of Comolli's signings.

Oh, and you may also know that Spurs are currently in the Champions League. They just beat the European Champions 3-1 with a team comprised largely of Comolli bargains.

So is Comolli the man who led a famous Premier League club with a rich tradition to the brink of relegation or the man who signed the core of a Champions League team and added £100m+ of value to his boss's business?

The first step we should make in reaching a conclusion is to figure out what is the responsibility of a Sporting Director. Well, the precise nature of the role is unclear, but in large part he/she will look after a club's transfer operations, like a General Manager in North American sports. He/she signs players whom are considered beneficial to the club. To list: Scouting? SD's responsibility. Transfer offers? SD's responsibility. Contract negotiations? SD's responsibility.

What a Sporting Director does not do is work on a daily basis with the team. That responsibility is left to the manager. To list: Team selection? Manager's responsibility. Team formation? Manager's responsibility. Team chemistry? Manager's responsibility. Player unhappy? Manager's responsibility.

So we have to examine why Spurs failed during the 07/08 season and for the early part of the 08/09. I analyzed these seasons at the time - 07/08 and early 08/09. Spurs were a team that could perform superbly, but conceded more points from a leading position than perhaps any other team in Premier League history. Their performance were a problem not of player skill but of team chemistry.

So was Comolli responsible for signing selfish players who worked against the team? He was famously criticized by former Spurs manager Martin Jol for signing players without discussing signings with the manager. But, and this is important, I simply look at the current success of the Spurs team and see a core of players who were at the club during Comolli's tenure. Gomes in goal, King and Dawson/Kaboul in defence, Modric and Huddlestone in midfield. The current team succeeds with a spine that has been in existence for several years, built in large part by Comolli. The players were capable of succeeding during his tenure.

Could Camolli have done better during his tenure at Spurs? Well the team seemed to succeed largely with his players right after he left, when Redknapp joined the club. One piece was missing - Palacios played a very important role in early 2009. But I would generally concur that Comolli was not responsible for Spurs' on-pitch woes during his time. Redknapp showed this with his immediate success at the club.

So did Camolli succeed at Spurs? I get a sense that there was a lack of communication between him and the club's managers, but yes he succeeded. His job was to sign players, not to manage the team. To put it bluntly, he signed the core of a Champions League team and added £100m+ of value to his boss's business.

What can Liverpool fans expect from Camolli? Camolli has been consistent in excelling at signing young, talented players. Success will not come overnight but in time Liverpool will realize that some of their young talents are world beaters and, with some financial support, Liverpool will once again be in the Champions League. The future will be bright at Anfield.

Schwarzer Rumoured to Want Move to Arsenal

2010-08-13T09:10:00.003+01:00

Mark Schwarzer has voiced his desire to sign with Arsenal ahead of the new Premier League season.

Arsenal have been linked with the 37 year-old Australian international goalkeeper for the duration of the summer, but manager Arsene Wenger has reportedly been angered by Fulham's demand for a large transfer fee.

"I need it to happen," Schwarzer told the Australian Daily Telegraph. "I've had a couple of chats with Mark [Hughes]. It's delicately poised. Who wouldn't be keen to go to Arsenal?

"At this stage in my career it's an amazing opportunity to play at that level and one I really want to take. Only time will tell whether that happens or not."

Arsene Wenger has become desperate to sign a goalkeeper ahead of Arsenal's Premier League challenge after Arsenal Number 1 Mani Almunia struggled to perform last term, posting one of the lowest save percentages of all goalkeeprs in the Premier League.

Schwarzer, one of the league leaders in save percentage, is seen by many as a perfect signing for the gunners. The Fulham goalkeeper has been one of the best goalkeepers in the league over the past few seasons, winning praise by many players, managers and observers of the game.

Schwarzer said he will not pull himself out of Saturday's game against Bolton Wanderers to manufacture a move, but he could miss the game through injury.

"I have never sat out a game [to prove a point] and never would," Schwarzer said. "But it needs to be resolved sooner rather than later. I'm not sure whether I'll play [for Fulham] on the weekend. I've got a few little injury problems but we'll have to wait and see how I pull up when I return to London."

I recently posted that I believe Arsenal will win the Premier League with the purchase of a new goalkeeper. I have full trust in Schwarzer and see him as an ideal signing to propel the Gunners to the Premier League crown.

Did You Know? Injuries

2010-08-11T16:59:00.003+01:00

Did you know?

Darren "sicknote" Anderton played in 66% of Premier League games during his 12 year stint at Tottenham Hotspur (299 pf 456 possible games). During one three year period in what should have been the peak of his career (1995-1998), Anderton managed only 39 of 114 Premier League appearances (34% of games). Spurs fans will know the player was never the same after this major injury stint.

Rio Ferdinand managed to play in close to 90% of all Premier League games before the season of his 30th birthday. Since his 30th birthday, he managed 63% of games in 2008/09 and 34% of games in 2009/10.

No surprise, but Michael Owen has averaged appearances in under 50% of Premier League games during the last five seasons or since his return to England from Spain.

Premier League Prediction

2010-08-11T12:43:00.003+01:00

Premier League Prediction: European Qualification

1. Arsenal - They have the best outfield starting XI in the Premier League and, among the group, the best individual player in the league. Will Wenger buy a goalkeeper? I'm assuming the answer is "Yes."

2. Chelsea

3. Man Utd

4. Man City

5. Tottenham - Spurs have a strong starting XI.

6. Liverpool - They rely so much on two players, one of whom is on the wrong side of 30 and already showed last season he has begun the downward step in his career (less goals, touches, passes, tackles, chances created, assists), while the other needs to get fit.

7. Everton - Superb manager. Arteta is a superstar. Let is hope he stays fit.