Polemic Hockey

Obligatory Pre-Season Shitty Predictions

2009-10-01T13:15:00.000-07:00

Eastern Playoff Teams:

New Jersey, New York Rangers, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington, Boston, Carolina, Toronto

Western Playoff Teams:

Vancouver, Calgary, San Jose, Anaheim, Detroit, Chicago, Los Angeles, Dallas

Final Four: Vancouver, San Jose, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh

Cup: Vancouver

Three days in these final four picks are looking ridiculous. I don't think Philly has the goaltending, even though it's starting well. Vancouver is choking under pressure, but it's early.

Handshakes and Court rulings.

2009-06-15T16:45:00.001-07:00

So Pens in 7. I'm glad I went with my heart instead of my mind on that. I really didn't want to see the Wings win again. Not that I looked forward to the apotheosis of Sidney Crosby, but oh well.

The Wings complaints about handshake snubs are as classless as what they are alleging. Shut up. You lost. I know you think that that should never happen, but it did.

Are we done pretending that Chris Osgood is an elite goalie? He built a resume on the back of his team. Credit to him for being good enough, but he's no Brodeur, Roy, Hasek. He's not even a Giguere.

I'm very interested in the Coyotes situation. It looks like the judge is at least considering allowing the move, but is basically telling Balsillie that he'll have to pay about half a billion total for it. I think he might be willing to do that...

2009

2009-05-14T18:45:00.001-07:00

There's no team I really care to follow left in the playoffs, so I won't have anything else to say. Detroit is going to assrape Chicago in the Conference finals, I'm very sad to say. I'd love to see the Hawks—anyone except the Entitled Red Wings. Detroit in 5. If had balls I'd say 4.

Yes, I said the Hawks had to prove something and then I would believe in them. They did prove it, but not that much. The Canucks softness lost out to the Hawks toughness and now there are questions about Luongo as a playoff goalie. No definitive judgment yet, but questions.

Out east...well, let's just say I think we've got a rematch of last year in the finals on our hands. Penguins in 6.

Blech.

Update: I'll end the year either 9-6 or 8-7. Not a very good year. I'm going with Fleury. He's been better than Osgood and I think the Pens want revenge. First finals rematch in a long time goes to the Pens in 6.

Ontario Coyotes

2009-05-07T10:16:00.000-07:00

Here's Damien Cox arguing to keep the Coyotes in Arizona. (If you've ever wondered exactly what you need to run a hockey team, look at the sale agreement in the side panel. They list every contract, every piece of equipment—everything they have. It's fascinating.)

All of his arguments are without merit.

Number one:

For starters, the NHL has the right to the pursue business strategies of its choice under the laws of Canada and the United States. There is no moral imperative here.

The NHL has that power, yes. But that doesn't make it right. Everything the NHL does should be to make hockey successful. But I can see a single rational business interest served by keeping a team in a market that has demonstrated failure.

Number two:

Second, a successful franchise in Phoenix – something that hasn't yet been achieved because of awful ownership and management – is potentially worth more to the NHL than a successful second franchise in southern Ontario.

Cox supplies no facts or arguments to back up that summary conclusion. I have no idea what he means. Maybe he's suggesting that hockey will become popular in Arizona and the next Wayne Gretzky will come from Mesa or Gila Bend. But if he means in terms of revenue, he's off base. The team will make more many in any number of Canadian cities.

And, the worst, number three:

Third, franchises can flourish in the U.S. southwest and the Sun Belt. Look at Dallas, Anaheim and San Jose.

Has Cox ever been to these places? There is no such place as the Sun Belt. It's just a term use to refer to areas of growth that have gained population from colder places. There is no culture, economy, or geography in common with these places. And notice that he omits some other failures: Nashville, Florida, and Atlanta.

The reason this argument is stupid is that none of these places is alike, and none of them is much like Phoenix. Anaheim is part of the Los Angeles media market, the second largest in the US. The Greater LA area is both geographically and demographically giant and diverse.

The LA area features over 130 high school hockey teams, which is one of the highest densities outside of Minnesota. There in no where near that amount of grassroots support in Phoenix, Dallas, Nashville, or any of the other "Sun Belt" areas. I bet you'd be surprised to hear than the San Francisco Bay Area is probably second in terms of amateur teams. I can't verify that, but there is a strong presence there.

Part of this is that the Bay Area had an NHL team 40 years ago, and LA has had a team for a long time. Even if the Kings are the red headed step-child of California hockey right now, there is obviously no problem fan wise with the Ducks or Kings.

Los Angeles can't be pigeon-holed because it is so huge. You can't just say "it's in the Southwest" or "in the Sun Belt." California has about the same population as Canada.

I can't really comment much on why Dallas has succeeded in terms of what's going on in Dallas. I know they have had good ownership. But I can tell you, as multifaceted as Great Los Angeles is, Dallas is a different animal. LA and San Jose probably have as much in common with Canada as it does Dallas.

Nashville and Atlanta are very different places too. They both share southern roots, but Atlanta, like Los Angeles, has so many people that you cannot simply say "Atlanta is..." without excluding huge segments, segments large enough to support things like sports franchises.

The Panthers and Lightning were placed on the idea that there were enough transplants there to support the game and the Ning won a Cup. Super. But the Panthers have been awful.

Cox's last argument is that the NHL has done OK pulling teams out of bankruptcy. With the exception of Washington, all three he lists are hockey hotbeds. Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo. None of those places ever face the same lingering doubts over fans. All have proved they exist already. Those were all problems that never would have occurred if the management was good.

At the end of the day, the NHL just doesn't want to admit that it's "Sun Belt" expansion is a success only if 50% is a passing grade, and it isn't in any school I've ever been to, and that's if you measure success only on the basis of Stanley Cups and failure on the basis of financial drama. Teams like the Sharks and Thrashers don't fit neatly into any category, but can't be failures. Are they successes?

All of this sturm and drang over moving a team was absent in the 90s, when Winnipeg and Quebec lost teams. The exchange rate was the prevailing argument, but now we're told to ignore temporary issues? Which is it?

Teams move. They always have. It shouldn't be done as a matter of course, but it should be done when it's clear that the other teams would be better off.

I believe that hockey needs to be firmly rooted in Canada, where it is the number 1 sport. I believe the Coyotes need to leave Phoenix. This means that it makes sense to move the Coyotes back up north, but I don't per se oppose them moving somewhere else. But it can't be another place that the NHL just wants to show it can do well in to prove a point. It should be a solid pick. That means please no Kansas City or Las Vegas. (Though any team in Las Vegas instantly gets Sean Avery just for being in Vegas.)

Hamilton is a sort of strange pick. I think a second Toronto team makes the most sense, followed by a return to Quebec. In the US, I imagine a second Minnesota team would do well, but so might a Portland or Seattle team.

None of this will happen since the NHL does everything it possibly can to suck.

Yeah, it was a bad call.

2009-05-06T18:10:00.001-07:00

Among many last night.

But why is it that there's a call for dramatic reforms of the league every time the Red Wings lose a playoff game? Arturs Irbe was cheating with his pads in 1994, the Devils were cheating or ruining the sport by playing the trap in 1995. And Giguere's pads were too big (even though they measured them) in 2003. In other words, the first explanation is that someone's cheating, not that the Wings lost, or, better that the game needs to be changed so they can just win like they're entitled to.

What about the LaRose non-goal? That was a goal. No eruption over that. This wasn't an OT goal. There's no guarantee the Red Wings win in OT. And it might have just been the hockey gods giving karma to a bunch of bad calls against the Ducks and no call on Holmstrom's elbow to Wiesniewski's face, which just because it wasn't mentioned on Versus didn't meant it didn't happen. It was in the AP report. And it didn't have to be what put him in the hospital to be a penalty—a major even.

The ref should have been in position to see the puck was loose, but my god, all of the whining on this, you'd think it was Brett Hull in 1999.

Marchant

2009-05-03T15:43:00.000-07:00

I called it!

OK, looks like a Drama Niedermayer tip but that was all Marchant.

Detroit

2009-05-01T18:43:00.000-07:00

I think Game 1 is pretty much a microcosm of what's going to happen in the series. Anaheim is going to be in it for a lot longer than people think, but, in the end, they're not going to get all the bounces they need.

Round 2 East

2009-04-28T19:29:00.000-07:00

Showing my ignorance of the East, I only got one series right thanks to the Devils and Rangers both blowing series leads and losing game 7s.

#1 Boston vs. #6 Carolina

Thomas still has to show me something because Montreal didn't present more than a minor bump in the road, and Ward has won it all. But absence of bad evidence is not evidence of absence. I'll go with the hype pick, Boston in 7.

#2 Washington vs. #4 Pittsburgh

When Lundquist was in a game, he showed that decent tending can slow down the Caps. A case can be made that Fleury is just as good as Lundquist, but guess what? Pittsburgh has more of everything else than the Rangers. Washington doesn't have the tending and Pittsburhg doesn't have the clown show. Pittsburgh in 6.

Don't Deserve It.

2009-04-28T19:14:00.001-07:00

Maybe Marty Brodeur wasn't 100% healed from his season long injury. I don't know. The Devils defense wasn't as strong as it needed to be, but there's something more than all of that.

This team gave up a goal to lose with less than a second left earlier in the series and then loses the ENTIRE series in less than a minute and a half. That is simply not good enough. It's an epic fail, and a team that does that doesn't deserve to win.

The Devils played too much Sharks hockey to win a series.

I'm just disgusted.

Update. What an abortion of a game, a series and a season. This team showed streaks of brilliance during the regular season, and at its worst it showed signs of being outgunned and outtalented, but I never saw (and I admittedly did not watch all 89 games) the kind of pusillanimous shitty play that lost them this series. To lose like that is to act like you think you're so much better.

Ugh, what an abortion. Well, Lou, how many good seasons does Marty have left? Maybe he needs a long summer to fully recover. But you'd better get some fucking D-men who know how to win and get rid of some hangers on coasting on their reputations from the glory days who aren't doing shit. (I'm looking at you Patty Cakes, you fucking femme. You belong on the Sharks.)

Update 2: The Devils have approximately $40m committed next year to 13 players. Word is the salary cap will go down to $50m. That seems awfully low. But let's see what we can do in that scenario, and in a scenario where it just doesn't go up.

First, let all of the UFAs walk except Madden and Oduya. If Shanahan wants to come back for about the same, that would not be a bad thing. Trade Elias. That frees up $5.25m, which is most of what you will need to retain Zajac and Oduya. Allocate another $3.5m for the total jobbers, and we're in the neighborhood of $45m without having resigned Madden and without guessing what Elias's returns will cost. If Dainus Zubrus can be traded, trade him. Give him away. That's $3.4 of dead weight, and so we're back in the neighborhood of having $8m, or $13m, depending on the scenario, to play with.

Let's assume some of the guys in the minors that are included as "total jobbers" can fill in 2 or 3 positions. If the cap doesn't go down, we can sign Madden for the $4m per he'll probably demand, and we have most of a roster. We maybe need 4 or 5 players and employ Elias's return for $4m or $9m. If it's the former, then the team will be worse next year and will have to rely on the farm and maybe a somewhat ready prospect as a return for Elias.

If it's the latter, there's money there to go get the defenseman they need, and they'll have a chance. NHL numbers shows Salvador still on the roster. I missed that. Buy him out, trade him, whatever. Jobber.

Game 7

2009-04-28T08:10:00.000-07:00

Pretty easy, the Parise-Zajac-Langenbruner line needs to be at least as good a the Staal line. The Canes have dominated that matchup since game 4, and that is why they have won two out of the last 3 and gotten a tremendous amount of SOGs. Oh and it would be nice if Elias, who is usually good in the playoffs even after a so-so regular season, would do something.

Round 2 West

2009-04-27T22:56:00.000-07:00

#2 Detroit vs. #8 Anaheim

That was really fun, winning the Battle of California, and short of a dynasty, it's sort of icing on the cake of the ride the Ducks have taken us on over the last 6 years... And it was no surprise to me that they beat the Sharks. How badly—yeah, that was a bit of surprise. Especially games 4 and 6. But I'm pretty sure that's their story this year.

Detroit in 6.

#3 Vancouver vs. #4 Chicago

A team I've called out as soft against a team I've called out as green? For me, it's this simple, again: Luongo. Vancouver in 7.

P.S. Still waiting to see what happens out east. I'm not feeling stupid for picking the Flames. A few bounces and they might have had it. Losing Phaneuf was awful. But out east? Good god, that's what I get for picking those Femmes the Flyers... and the Rangers... have you ever seen the like of this implosion?

Thornton FAIL

2009-04-27T22:53:00.000-07:00

So was that fight Joe's attempt to like "have heart?" Prepare to be traded to Florida. lol.

UPDATE: This is just fucked up (because I didn't think of it first):

UPDATE 2: Just to be clear, I'm not blaming this on Thornton. It's not his fault. It's Nabokov. He's the common denominator in the decade of Shark chokery. Why Joe should take the blame, I don't know. Joe is Joe. They expect him to be Eric Lindros or even Jerome Iginla. He's not that guy. But your goalie has to be able to steal games and Nabokov was good for stretches, but never dominated a whole game. Remember, the Ducks were always within a goal in game 3, and came back in a flash from down two in game 5. The goalie who wins the Stanley Cup doesn't do that, whoever he is. If I was the Sharks, I would look for some mercenary goaltending now that I have my mercenary d-men. Wouldn't it be interesting if they could swing a trade, three way or otherwise for Giguere? I can't think of any other Stanley Cup goalies that might be available out there. If they blame this on the coach, or on Thornton for not being a player he isn't, the results will likely be repeated. The Islanders are suckers for a bad trade. Marleau, a jobber, and yet another first rounder for DiPietro? haha. yeah, right. The Islanders think Tavares is going to win them a Cup.

On Calgary, I was just plain wrong about Kipprusoff he sucked. If he had been a little bit better, the Flames would've had it. Biron sucked, they lost. Lundqvist is sucking, they're losing. Goaltending. It's pretty much that simple.

Devils vs. Canes: Game 6

2009-04-26T13:53:00.000-07:00

For all the worthy talk on goaltending in this series if I were the Devils I would want to use the extra day off between games to figure out how my team gave up 90 shots over two regulation games. The Canes are very good at defense to offense transitions and at gaining speed through the neutral zone. They also win a disproportionate amount of key faceoffs. So they have the puck often and they attack with it. Moreover, the Devils have often backed off in the third to play for OT, whereas the Canes have attacked.

Although Rolston did his best, he tried too much ole bullshit where Langenbrunner would have started a cycle. For the Devils then the best defense is a good offense. They should try a little less heroism off the rush a little more cycling. They also need to keep on punching in the third, even if they are up on the scoreboard.

The Canes' two wins came in games in which the Devils lost a crucial player in the middle of the contest, and it still took improbable breaks for the Canes to get the W. All things being equal the Devils are the better team, but the Canes have an incredible talent for pulling a rabbit out of a hat which I suspect comes from the leadership of Brind'amour (who deserved the Smythe more than Ward, but whatever).

Anyhow, should be entertaining.

Flyers

2009-04-25T14:47:00.001-07:00

If I just would have stuck to my "who has the better goalie" formula, I would have gotten this series right. I didn't. To be honest, I just hadn't watched enough games this year to really have a strong feeling on this series.

But if the Flyers blame their coach or think they need to go get a superstar forward, they will be totally misdiagnosing their problem: Marty Biron is not a playoff goalie. Buffalo knew that when they let him go for a broken zamboni.

Versus Morons

2009-04-24T18:37:00.001-07:00

After some twit pours a beer on Rags coach Billy Goat Gruff Tortorella the Versus schnauzers play concern troll. To parphrase: Those New York fans are tough, if your Caps fan yeah you win this one and everyone forgets about it. Now, who knows what will happen at the Garden on Sunday?"

I do. A hockey game. A playoff hockey game. Guess what some a-hole throwing a beer at the Caps bench will do: motivate them.

Having a boisterous crowd is advantageous, but the crowd doesn't actually do anything at any game. None of the participants would have gotten where they are without being able to handle a hostile audience.

The Rags will probably win this series, but the incredible beer-bath-for-beer-bath revenge lust of the Rags fans will have had nothing to do with it.

This goes beyond the normal homerism of Versus for the Pens, Sharks and Rags; this is just plain moronic. Do these fools even know what they are watching?

FAIL

2009-04-23T22:40:00.000-07:00

Hockey pundit overhype FAIL.

It's not so much that it's no longer possible for the Sharks to win in 6. Look at their "expert" breakdown. Anaheim has the "question mark" in net? If I were to diagnose this series, I wouldn't be pointing the finger anywhere other than Nabokov. He's the common denominator to the run of Shark chokes. He's brilliant at his best, but to win in the playoffs, sometimes goalies just have to steal a game or two. Can he steal three? It doesn't look like it. The Ducks were only in game 3 because of Nabokov.

To say there's just a "slight" edge in coaching is ridiculous. We have a rookie versus a Cup champ. I'll grant that the Sharks have more depth at forward, but if that's the only category they legitimately are superior in, why pick them—especially in 6?

I wouldn't be shocked to see them pull this out in 7. They are damn good. But it won't be for any of the reasons this two bit hack experts talk about.

Oy, why am I surprised? These same clowns say Brodeur and Ward are "dead even" in net. Wow. Nobody pays me, but all of my picks have either won, are in the lead, or are tied in their series except the goddamn Flyers.

Just for you, Sharks fans.

2009-04-19T18:23:00.000-07:00

Chomp on that, Champs of Never.

UPDATE: They chomped... and choked.

Here's some extra immaturity for you:

FACIAL!

UPDATE 2: Is this the reason?

“I’m not too sure that the guys in there, after the two games, I think if you went through and asked each of the guys, they’d think they’re the better team,” said Todd McLellan, the Sharks’ rookie coach. “They’re not getting the puck luck, and you have to give Anaheim credit. They found a way to win.”

See, "being the better team" will get you the best record in the regular season, but it will get your ticket punched to the golf resort in the playoffs. Winning is all that matters. You'd think McLellan, of Red Wings fame, would get that. That team manages to do both quite often.

Couple this with Joe Thornton's post-game comments that they were doing all the right things and the goals would come... well, all I can say is, just "keep doing the right thing" and you're going to find yourself in an embarrassing exit. And if there is more parity in penalty calls, look out.

Can the Devils break the Hurricane Hex?

2009-04-19T13:44:00.000-07:00

As of this morning the Devils and the Hurricanes have played 19 playoff games with the Canes holding an 11-8 advantage. The telling truth of the difference in the series is that the Hurricanes have won all of the close games.

In 2001 the Devils won blow outs in games one, three, and six. The Devils won a relatively close game 2 by 2-0, but the Canes never really came within sniffing distance of a goal, so that score is closer than the play indicated. The Canes won a tight 3-2 overtime contest in game 4 and a fairly convincing 3-2 win in game 5.

In 2002, the Devils' two victories were relatively easy wins in games 2 and 3. The Canes won two 2-1 victories with one win in OT, a 3-2 OT victory in game 5 and a 1-0 triumph to clinch in six.

In 2006, the Devils' only win was an easy 5-1 triumph while the Canes won the series with 3-2 victories sandwiched between two blowouts.

And this year the Devils opened with a 4-1 shellacking only to lose 2-1 to the Canes in game 2.

Overall the 19 games the teams have played the Canes are 8-0 in one goal games and 5-0 in overtime games.

The Canes have played well and did not get the wins cheaply or unfairly, but they have had the hockey gods on their side. Key Devils players were lost to injury in 2002. Kevin Weekes came out of nowhere to steal that series after the Devils chased Artrus Irbe from nets in Games 3 and 4. The Canes got an improbable goal to tie game 2 in 2006 because Madden won his faceoff too cleanly and threw the puck in his own zone. Random defensive defensemen have scored OT game winners.

True to form in 2009, Cam Ward drew a dubious interference call to nullify a Devils PP that seemed to be on the verge of breaking the game open. The Canes scored a fluke PPG after a Devil finished his check too perfectly and an end board caroom gave the Canes an open net. Jamie Langenbrunner was lost to a freakish groin looking injury, and Tim Gleason scored his only goal of the season on a deflection to give CAR the OT win.

The Devils have mostly played even or better than the Canes with the exception of 2006, but somehow the Canes have gotten or earned every strange break, hop, bounce or play in every close game.

The Devils are due to break the hex, but if they somehow do not or cannot, you couldn't blame them for having the Canes in their heads.

UPDATE:

Broken.

Presentation of the 2009 Holik Award

2009-04-18T13:06:00.000-07:00

The Holik Award for Incompetent Arrogance is presented to the player that chose to bolt from a successful team from the previous year to a mediocre team this year, only to see his former team succeed without him while his new team continues to fail. The award is named for Bobby Holik, who deserted the New Jersey Devils for the NY Rangers after the 2002 season, only to see the Devils win the Stanley Cup the next season. Holik never made the playoffs as a Rag.

This year's Holik Award winner is Ryan Malone. After playing an important power forward role for the Stanley Cup runner up Penguins, Malone took the money to sign with the Tampa Bay Lightening. Lecavelier and St. Louis are genuine stars, but anyone that actually knows hockey understands that Tampa Bay has never come close to being a contender again because they never replaced 2006 Holik award winner Nikholai Khabibulin in nets or the leadership and timely special teams play of Dave Andreychuck. Their season was died an immediate death when they inconceivably signed the braindead goofus Barry Melrose as coach. Barry Melrose is the William Kristol of ice hockey; the opposite of his opinion is inevitably correct because he is such a blinder-wearing dimwit.

Malone put up decent numbers on a 'Ning squad that was a seasonlong cellar dweller. Meanwhile, the Pens rented same able wingers for the ever-annoying-but-yeah-really-good Crosby and Malkin and are, as of this writing, halfway to the second round.

Congratulations, Mr. Malone!

2009 Holik Award Winner

Ryan Malone. Former Team: Penguins. New Team: 'Ning.

Past Winners:

Past Winners
2007: Zdeno Chara
2006: Nikolai Khabibulin
2004: Bobby Holik
2003: Bobby Holik

Jim Kelley

2009-04-14T20:31:00.000-07:00

The man would not pick the Devils to win a series if their first line was the 1985 Oilers top 3, their second line was the 1980 Islanders top line, their third line was the late 70s Canadiens, and … Martin Brodeur was their goalie. Oh, wait.

I don't know what will happen. No one does. But when someone picks against a team over and over and over, it's a bias. I admit to having a bias against the Red Wings, and it fucked me up the last two years in predictions. I admit to being a fan of California teams, especially the Ducks, and the Devils. But I admit it. None of these fuckin guys admit shit.

As for the Ducks, look, they are not as good as the Sharks. But +260? That's just a comical handicap, and I think it pays, especially if you can trade it.

That's the best thing about sports betting. It can be a dangerous hobby, but it leaves the proof in the pudding and makes people put their money where their mouths are or shut the fuck up. I still have a t-shirt from betting on the Devils at 50-1 preseason in 2003. It's thanks to douches like Kelley that make it so much easier to win money on hockey that it is on baseball.

Playoffs

2009-04-11T23:23:00.000-07:00

Here's my formula. The team that has the best goalie wins. If the goalies are close, the team with the better defense wins. Some X-factors are playoff experience (choking, winning, or none), and possibly looking at how they did in the last few games. Mostly, I just go by goalie. And by "who's better" I mean who's the better goalie or d-man in the playoffs. I don't give a whore's fuck about how they play in October.

(1) Boston v. (8) Montreal.

I'll believe Boston when I see them with the Cup. I don't know that Montreal is the team to pull off the upset. My lack of paying much attention this year has limited by ability to handicap this one. I don't really like either goalie. Boston in 7.

(2) Washington v. (7) Rangers

Lundquist is better than Theodore, and the Rangers have seen some postseason lately. Rangers in 7.

(3) New Jersey v. (6) Carolina

Martin Brodeur. NJ in 6.

(4) Pittsburgh v. (5) Philadelphia.

No idea, but I'm gonna say Philly in 7 so I don't catch shit from my Flyers' fan friends if I'm wrong.

(1) San Jose vs. (8) Anaheim

The Sharks are one of those teams, like the Blues used to be, that's reliable for a playoff slot, and not much more. We're supposed to believe it's different because they got the President's Trophy? Ask how much good that's done other teams trying to get the real trophy.

Anaheim in 7.

(2) Detroit vs. (7) Columbus.

Green playoff team versus the champs? Detroit in 4.

(3) Vancouver vs. (6) St. Louis

Luongo. Vancouver in 6.

(4) Chicago vs. (5) Calgary.

Chicago's green as their river on St. Patty's Day and these Flames have been a semi-contender for a while. Kiprusoff is better now especially, and he was better in 2004, but Khabi had more scoring in front of him. Red necks over Fat Necks in 6.

Does this mean I was wrong to say they should have sold at the deadline? No. Why? Because they aren't going to win the Cup. They're going to win a round, maybe.

Update: I corrected the #4 & 5 seeds out East and the 3/6 matchup out west. Same predictions I would have had.

Update 2: So, I guess I'll just go for the full prediction monkey bullshit:

I'll say New Jersey, Boston, Detroit and Vancouver as the final 4, with the Devils and Detroit doing 1995 over, with the same result in more games.

Blow Up The Ducks

2009-03-01T10:50:00.000-08:00

Needless to say, I haven't followed hockey much this season, or posted really at all.

But here's my $0.02 on the deadline. The Ducks won the Cup in 2007. They got that done. But for various reasons, the core group wasn't able to pull it off again. Some could point to the delay of Niedermayer and Selanne returning, or the loss of Dustin Penner and Andy McDonald. Or even Brian Burke moving on to Toronto, or not having Ilya Bryzgalov as a pressure release for Giguere. It doesn't help that the owners are in deep legal shit either.

Surely, all of this combined to hurt their chances, but just as in 2006 and 2007, the Ducks had in 2008 and have in 2009 the three primary ingredients for winning Cups: goaltending, defense, and experience. But it hasn't worked.

I don't think a trip to the finals is in the cards this year. So, while they've got 'em they should cash 'em in. They've already traded Chris Kunitz for a solid young d-man. Kunitz's value as a Duck is probably 5x greater than his intrinsic value, so that was a good trade.

Pronger probably won't resign, but he can be traded in the summer. Niedermayer would be an excellent choice to offload. You could even send the entire checking line for a good enough price.

New Jersey always has a stable of good prospects. And if they're willing to really pay, bringing Niedermayer back is the last piece of the puzzle for their 4th Cup. It'll be interesting.

I absolutely do not think Boston has the experience or goaltending to win the Cup this year, but I think they are poised for a good run. I think San Jose has to prove it is mentally ready finally, even though they sure appear to be. Detroit is a year older. New Jersey, on the other hand, has the goaltending and experience. They just need a slightly better D corps.

Brylin

2008-07-11T14:11:00.000-07:00

He won't make the hall of fame, and I wouldn't bet on the Devils retiring his number, but it's guys like Sergei Brylin that make the NHL the league that it is, that make hockey the sport it is (and differentiate it from the other sports), and also who win Cups for teams.

Sergei Brylin would win, if there were such a thing, the award for best third line player every year, and would have been winning it since the mid 90s.

But, he's gone. Off to play in Russia, leaving Marty Brodeur as the only remaining three Cup Devil on the team (the only other active 3-cup Devil is Scott Niedermayer). I guess they didn't have the cash for him after bringing Rolston and (barf) Holik back.

Lou Loves Ex-Devils; UFA Scorecard

2008-07-01T15:48:00.000-07:00

Rolston signs with New Jersey for 4@20m. Rolston was the trade bait that won the Devils their 2000 Cup, was with the team for their 1995 triumph (mostly as a bit player, though), and has since matured into an on-ice leader with one of the league's hardest shots. He can also play the point on the powerplay.

Chicago made some decent moves, signing Huet and Brian Campbell. These guys have done well of late, but you cannot say that they have been solid for many years; as such, I question the dedication of so much money to them. But Chicago needed to do something.

Everyone else was mostly filling holes. We'll see about Hossa and Sundin. Does Chicago have the money to reunite Havlat and Hossa?

UPDATE: OK. I so now he gets Holik, too? Does he still get to wear his junior Republican uniform... and, does he get his number back? hahahaa.

Referees

2008-06-10T19:41:00.000-07:00

It's absurd to seriously suggest that referees in any sport rig games or work for the league to attempt to generate certain outcomes, right?

Wrong.