Steve Lombardo

Election Monitor: Reports of the GOP's Demise are Overstated

2013-02-21T12:15:19-05:00

Friends,

A GOP apologist I am not. After the 2008 Presidential election I wrote a memo about the Republican Party's demographic predicament that was widely quoted in a David Broder Washington Post op-ed. This December I authored a Politico piece on the GOP brand problem, the main argument of which was that the Republican electoral problem is as much message and brand as it is math. While the Party's brand and math problems persist, the widespread and somewhat hysterical rhetoric about the last election's implications has gotten out of control. Each day brings a new story about the sorry state of the GOP and the rosy future of the Democratic Party. There is a growing narrative that the Obama team was made up of Google-like geniuses that did everything right and that the GOP is headed for a decade of irrelevance. We have heard this story before and it is a myth.

Think back to the weeks and months after President Bush's 2004 re-election victory. Pundits said that the Democrats were hopelessly misguided. They proclaimed that Democrats would not win another Presidential election in the foreseeable future. They also argued that the GOP likely had a permanent majority in place. These commentators believed that the Republicans had "won" the technology race and that it would be a decade before the Democrats caught up. Guess what? It was almost entirely wrong.

Of course, not everyone bought into the above (David Axelrod and David Plouffe certainly didn't). But the myth existed and probably impacted Republicans at least through the 2006 mid-term elections. The truth was that Bush's team did have a slight technology and turnout advantage...but they also got lucky along the way. Plus they had a candidate advantage (Bush was simply better at politicking than Kerry) and an issue advantage (terrorism). And finally, they had four years to put it all together.

In 2012, Team Obama had significant structural advantages which, when added to an extremely well-run campaign (from both a tactical and strategic perspective), led them to victory. Democrats enjoyed two fundamental built-in advantages that gave them an edge:

Team Obama controlled all of the relational databases for the last four years and used that time to build a comprehensive data system. They were able to merge financial, voter, volunteer, polling and social data into a single database. Yes, they did this in a smart way, but having that kind of time AND owning all of those databases allowed Team Obama to create a system that fed into--and informed--their campaign management decisions. They probably won key states like Ohio and Iowa on turnout modeling, advertising targeting and GOTV alone.

The economy improved during the last 12 months and this sucked the wind out of the Romney alternative. There is no doubt that voters gave credit to Obama for the slowly improving economy. The actual unemployment number didn't really matter as much as the trend. Macro trends always matter.

These advantages--one tactical/organizational and the other macro attitudinal--shaped the election. The Romney team did what it could to build a comprehensive data system between April and November but it did not have the time or the infrastructure to succeed. Yes, Team Obama had terrific brainpower and some of their processes were superior but ultimately this was about having the time to merge different systems and test them prior to election day. As for the economy, there was little the GOP could do about the trending economic indicators.

When you overlay the actual campaign execution (mistakes matter and "47%" was huge) on top of these two advantages the result was a substantial Electoral College victory. Obama won 332 electoral votes to Romney's 206. He captured all of the key swing states. But when you look beneath the surface it was not a massive victory.

The President won only 51% of the vote to Romney's (ironically) 47%. Obama won Ohio with 50.7% of the vote. Out of 5.5 million votes cast in the Buckeye state, Obama only won by about 150,000 votes. In Florida the win was even tighter, with the President winning 50.01% of the vote (a popular vote margin of approximately 70,000 votes out of 8.5 million cast). By our count, Obama won five other states with less than 52% of the vote. These wins were the result of Democrats doing a better job of identifying and mobilizing their voters.

Here are some important points:

While Obama accrued more than 65 million votes, this was actually nearly 4 million fewer votes than he won in 2008. In fact, his vote share dropped from 53% in 2008 to 51% in 2012. Romney, on the other hand, received about one million more votes than McCain in 2008 but nearly two million fewer than George Bush in 2004. So while Romney bettered McCain's 2008 results it was not nearly enough given population growth and demographic trends.

Quite simply, Romney was not a good candidate. That fact, combined with Obama's two distinct advantages, meant almost certain electoral victory. None of this is to say that the Republican Party isn't without its problems. We have been saying for years that Republican policies need to address issues that matter to Latinos, blacks, women and young voters. And even more importantly their rhetoric needs to inspire and resonate.

But 2012 was not a landslide and 51% does not mean that Democrats are in the driver's seat for the next decade. The GOP can come back. Republicans can find their voice (fixing their brand) and a unifying leader (addressing the math problem).

The Republican Party is in a similar position that the Democrats were in after Carter, Mondale and Dukakis. The question is whether they can limit their losing streak to two rather than three.

The Republican Brand Problem

2012-12-06T14:38:28-05:00

By Steve Lombardo and Jackie Cooper

It was one month ago that President Obama defeated Mitt Romney, garnering nearly 51 percent of the vote and more than 330 electoral votes. While it wasn't a landslide, it was certainly a solid victory. To be sure, some of blame for the Republican loss can be attributed to a fundamentally flawed candidate who a) emerged from the primaries in a weakened condition and b) had to deal with an improving economy. But a larger share of the loss may have been the result of a tarnished Republican brand. In fact, the Republican brand has become so blemished that it can no longer sustain its most important product: a presidential candidate.

As we know, brands are important. In the marketing world, brands give consumers shorthand codes about the character and identity of products and companies. Brands tell consumers how these products or companies are different, or how they are better. Whether it's the Nike swoosh or the Coke polar bears, brand images and logos are a product's core values. The best brands in the world find a way of both making consumers want to be part of their community and differentiating the product from their competitors. The 2012 Republican Party did neither. We know from our work in developing global communications campaigns that promoting brands requires addressing their emotional and rational sides. Doing so helps to ensure that our efforts will have the maximum impact with consumers and, in effect, win their votes.

Going one step deeper -- and using a page from neuroscience -- we know how stories impact decision-making through our subconscious mind. The subconscious mind is a more powerful control force than the conscious mind and when it comes to decision-making, what exists in our subconscious often controls us more than logic and reason.

In his book The Literary Mind Professor Mark Turner notes that there are three major pathways to the subconscious mind -- habits, beliefs and emotions. Storytelling can tap into all three paths.

Habits are our routines in life. Neuroscience supports that habits become the autopilot for our decisions, which is why habits are so difficult to break. It also demonstrates why the habit of telling the same story becomes a major part of how we act and view our life.

Beliefs are the conclusions we make by living life. It is important to understand that all beliefs are not equal. If we attach emotion to a belief, then that belief becomes more important to us. Often these beliefs are referred to as our core principles and values.

Stories impact beliefs because one of the components of a story is emotion. It is often the emotional impact of a story that has the most profound impact on the success of the story. Neuroscience supports why emotions play such a critical role in storytelling.

Unfortunately for the Republican party, the voter habits, beliefs and emotions are all moving in the wrong direction. This is because their storytelling has been terrible. Brands are symbols that provide consumers with signals about a product's identity. For the Republican party, those signals are almost uniformly negative and, for that reason, every Republican presidential candidate is facing an uphill battle before he/she even begins to campaign. This isn't a guess on our part. We have the data to prove it.

We did a survey of more than 1,200 U.S. voters (conducted by our research arm, Edelman Berland) showing them a series of 14 words and phrases (positive brand attributes) and asking them to tell us which party -- Democrat or Republican -- the phrases better described. The results are stunning. As you can see from the chart below, the Democratic Party "won" on 13 of 14 attributes. Even more importantly, they won 12 of 14 among Independents. And on some of the attributes it wasn't all that close. The Democratic party emerges as far stronger than the GOP on several key attributes, including: "offers a hopeful vision of the future," "cares about people like me," "clearly explains how its actions will benefit me," "understands issues facing the middle class," "works to bring about change," "honest and ethical" and "smart and innovative ."

Note the bold words in each of these phrases. It would take a brand planner two minutes to conjure up a creative brief for the Democratic brand using these key words: hopeful, caring, beneficial, understanding, changing (for better), ethical and innovative. These are the brand signals that are currently owned by the Democratic party. They form the core of its brand identity. And thinking about what we said earlier about the types of attributes, our data shows that the GOP scores much better on the rational attributes we tested, while it fares far worse on the emotional ones.

Importantly, women thought that all 14 positive attributes better described the Democratic Party. It was the same result for young voters (those 18-34). In fact, for both women and young voters, the Republican party is barely in the consideration set. This helps explain exit poll data showing President Obama beating Governor Romney handily among these two important demographic subgroups.

We also asked voters to tell us which of the 14 attributes was most important. As you can see from the chart below, "honest and ethical" and "tackling the most challenging issues" are considered most important by voters. Interestingly, "protecting our national security interests" was tied for the least important of the 14. This was also the only attribute "won" by the Republican Party. In other words, the only positive attribute that forms the core of the GOP brand identity is the one that was LEAST important to voters. This would be akin to Nike doing best on a "has the prettiest colors" attribute and having that turn out to be the least important factor to consumers buying running shoes.

All of that being said, the Republican Party is not in a death spiral. But it does have a significant brand problem. And while the demographic challenges facing Republicans have gotten more post-election play, the party's brand image issue may be more central to its recovery.

The good news for the Republican party is that it is correctable. But it requires immediate action. Complicating things is that the Republican Party is not a single entity; it is, instead, a disparate group of actors and factions. But it can begin to demonstrate its vision in a better way. Like any brand that has lost its way, the GOP needs to clearly establish who it is and what it stands for. It needs to better relate to its consumer on those things that matter deeply. It needs to differentiate itself from the Democratic Party and communicate those differences in ways that are simple and easy to understand.

Most of all, it needs a leader who reflects those core attributes. And as we have noted above, it must address the emotional as well as the rational side of its brand by tapping into the habits, beliefs and emotions of the voter.

This will not be accomplished in the near term, but one thing is pretty certain: if the Republican Party does not do the above... it will not be winning elections at the presidential level for a long time to come.

Election Monitor: Memo to GOP: It's Not Just a Math Problem

2012-11-07T12:25:36-05:00
There is an old political consultant adage: never run the same political campaign twice and expect the same outcome. The same should hold for prognosticators. Yesterday, for the most part, we got it wrong. We did so because I made some faulty assumptions. President Obama captured reelection by running an entirely different campaign than the one he and his team executed in 2008, and his 2012 strategy fit the needs of the candidate -- and the times -- perfectly.

In late September we wrote a widely-quoted piece saying that Romney emerged from the primaries as a damaged and flawed candidate, a candidate that the Obama campaign beat to a virtual pulp with spring and early summer advertising painting the Governor as an out-of-touch elitist. The ads worked, and Romney stumbled through the convention and early Fall with several rhetorical missteps and his infamous 47 percent comment. At that time we said that only a great first debate could save the GOP nominee. Well that's exactly what happened, and what followed was a surge.

We thought the voting electorate this year would look like it did in 2004. We thought GOP turnout would exceed Democratic turnout. It did not. And the electorate? Well, guess what: it's changed. A lot. The 2004 turnout models didn't work in 2012. Of course we tweaked the models... but they needed a lot more than a tweak. Sandy probably blunted some of Romney's momentum but what really stopped it was Romney's continued inability to obtain a reasonable vote share with key constituent blocks, including black and Hispanic voters, young people and the working class. Quite simply: he failed to gain the trust of those voters. Completely. By a 2-to-1 margin, voters thought Obama "cared more about people like them." You don't win elections when you're losing a core metric like that.

People talk about the "math" being wrong for the GOP. From an empirical perspective, that's true. After 2008 we wrote that Republicans won't be winning too many national elections if they're only getting 30-35 percent of the Hispanic vote. It's hard to believe, but Romney actually did worse with Hispanics than McCain, getting only 27 percent of the vote according to the exit polls. But this isn't a math problem, it is a message problem. Hispanic and black voters simply do not trust Republicans.

Here are some of our flawed assumptions:

We thought young voters would not turn out at the same level as 2008. They did. In fact, they represented 19 percent of the electorate per exit polls -- as high, if not higher, than four years ago.

We said that Democrats would not be +6 over Republicans and if they were, Obama would win. Well, they did and he did. Again, exit polls say Democrats were +6. Romney needed the proportion of Republicans and Democrats to be even to win.

We thought minority turnout would be lower than 2008. It was not. In several important precincts in key states, minorities voted in numbers equal to -- and in some cases better than -- four years ago.

We thought Romney would win Independents by double digits. He won them, but by just five points.

We thought Romney would have a huge gender advantage among men; it was only seven points. Meanwhile, the president won women by 12 points.

We thought Romney would dominate on being "better able to handle the economy." He only beat the President on this issue by a few points. Not enough.

Exit polling data also showed that most people continue to blame George W. Bush for the country's current economic condition. The President's team was masterful in getting that message out over the last four years. Team Obama also used the abortion issue to their advantage (as Republicans have done in the past) and this helped drive up the base vote.

The president's team ran a base election, just like the 2004 Bush campaign. The economy improved just enough and Obama ran a strong campaign with few strategic and tactical errors (other than, of course, that first debate). And, perhaps most importantly, the Obama campaign defined Mitt Romney before he ever had a chance to define himself.

In a sense, Romney won the campaign he ran. He won 59 percent of white voters. He probably won two-thirds of white men. But in this day and age that isn't enough. And it will be a mistake for Republicans to think that the issue is one of simple math. It is the message. It is about how you talk to people. It is about promoting policies that matter. It is about trust.

We will have a more comprehensive post-election analysis next week.

Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008, but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.

Election Monitor: Sandy Helps Obama But Not Enough - Romney Will Win Tonight

2012-11-06T09:16:23-05:00
Later on tonight, Mitt Romney will string together a winning coalition with victories in states ranging from Virginia to Colorado, capturing the popular vote by nearly two points and a sizeable majority of electoral votes, making him the 45th President of the United States.

We make this projection with full knowledge that a shift of one or two points in any of six key battleground states could hand Obama the election. But there comes a time when you have to make a judgment and that time is upon us.

On the one hand, we are well aware that the majority of swing state polling is giving an edge to President Obama. Conversely, state and national polling data show Governor Romney winning political independents by large numbers. Never before have we faced so much contradictory data. More than ever we are making this projection based on gut instincts wrapped around science. In the end, we are making our projection based on the belief that most polls are over-sampling Democrats. For example, the final Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll had 35 percent Democrats, 29 percent Republicans. If by the end of today Democrats are +6 then the President will win reelection. But we think the ratio of GOP and Democratic voters will be closer to even; Democratic turnout will certainly fall well below 2008 levels.

This election rests on the composition of the electorate. Yes, it's a cliché but it's also true: this election is all about turnout. Turnout among young voters (a cohort the President wins in most polls by upwards of 20 points) will be far below 2008 levels. We believe the electorate is going to look a lot more like 2004 or 2010 than 2008; if that is the case, Romney will win. Here is our rationale for going with Governor Romney:

While the economy has improved, it has not done so fast enough. We said this before: Obama is doing better than expected because of the economy... not in spite of it. It is improving. Unemployment has gone from more than 10 percent to 7.9 percent. One year ago, the President would have lost in a landslide. However this economic improvement won't be enough. The problem is two-fold: it has not improved enough and voters think Romney can handle the issue better than Obama. According to the latest WSJ/NBC News poll, the Governor leads Obama by five points (47 percent to 42% percent in terms of ability to "create jobs and grow the economy." To have the edge on the election's most important issue is a huge advantage for Romney.

The President lost Independents in the months after the passage of Obamacare and has never won them back. Our sense is that Romney is winning among political independents by 6-12 points, both nationally and in several key swing states. This is where we have concerns regarding the state polls. We do not think that Team Obama can generate enough Democratic turnout to offset losing Independents by double digits. The energy and intensity is with Republicans this year and it will likely carry the Governor to victory in certain swing states.

Romney has owned the narrative for a month. At the end of September we wrote that the pendulum had swung to Obama and that he had had the Romney team on the defensive for more than 30 days. At that time we said that Romney had one chance to reverse the trajectory and that was the first debate. He did exactly that on October 3rd and that has driven the storyline of this election ever since. Team Romney finally forced the Obama campaign on the defensive. And the first debate forced swing voters to finally consider Romney as an acceptable alternative. From that point forward, Romney began offering an alternative vision of the country that attracted both base and swing voters alike. We do concede that Sandy temporarily halted the Romney momentum last week. The storm big-footed Romney-and just about all of the election coverage-for four whole days. This is problematic for a challenger. The country tends to rally around incumbents during times of crisis. ; However, the campaign moratorium was lifted on Friday. Time will tell if it substantially helped the President or simply slowed Romney's momentum.

Obama ran a base campaign while Romney worked to win swing voters. Axelrod and company ran the Bush 2004 playbook. They have treated this election as a base turnout election since day one. This was most apparent in the last debate when the President was continually on attack and playing to his base. We said at that time that Obama was trying to win the debate while Romney was trying to win the election. Team Romney has been running a campaign aimed at the middle - especially over the last six weeks. In the end, if Obama wins it will be a validation of this strategy. But our sense is that the Romney strategy of appealing to swing voters will pay off with the above mentioned Independents in key states like Virginia and Ohio (and perhaps even in Pennsylvania).

Obama's coalition has experienced an unsustainable erosion since 2008, especially among men. The Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll last week showed that while 84 percent of 2008 Obama voters would support the President in 2012, 13 percent peeled off to Romney. While the President has lost favor with a diverse set of audiences-running across economic, educational and ideological lines-the erosion has been strongest among men. The final Gallup tracking poll (released yesterday) showed Romney winning men by 11 points. In 2008, exit polls showed Obama winning men by one point. That is a substantial reversal.

The generic congressional ballot suggests that there is not enough Democratic energy to carry the day for the President. The latest NBC/WSJ poll has GCB at +2 Democrats among registered voters. It was +13 Democrats in 2008. Somewhere along the line, someone unplugged Obama's energy source and it will likely lead to his defeat.

Given this backdrop, Romney will flip six states that Obama captured in 2008: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio Wisconsin and Colorado en route to a substantial Electoral College victory. Obama will likely win Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire but it will not be enough. While Romney looks safely ahead in Florida and North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio remain the key targets. Capturing both VA and OH puts Romney at 271 EVs, one more than necessary. If they fall to Romney as we expect them to, then Wisconsin and Colorado are icing on the cake. By adding those two states Romney gets to 285 Electoral votes.

Our regression vote model projects that Romney will win by a little less than two percentage points today. We project the following popular vote distribution:

Romney 50.2%

Obama 48.3%

Other .5%

Below is our final regression projection line. Today's analysis produced a flatter curve than we have seen in recent weeks; Sandy has clearly blunted the Romney momentum. In light of the last-minute polls the trend has been revised downward. We are getting a final estimate of +. 75 for Romney. When we correct for turnout, we get a 1.9-point Romney popular vote win.

Romney's victory will come because he recaptured three southern states that Obama managed to win in 2008: Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. Remember that Bush won Florida by five points in 2004 and Obama only won the state by 2.5 points in 2008. Similarly, NC went big for Bush in both 2000 and 2004 (12-point margin) and Obama won in 2008 by less than half of one percent. VA is, of course, the biggest prize of the three "southern" states and the most like a "swing" state (it's also the most competitive this year). Bush won by eight points in 2004 and Obama won by six points four years later. Obama will not have the young and minority voter turnout he had in 2008 and will likely lose Virginia this time around by less than two points.

Ohio is the most vexing of all the states this year. As we stated earlier, dozens of polls have shown the President with a one-three point advantage over the last two weeks. Again, our sense is that Democrats are being over-counted in that polling. Romney has had double-digit leads among Independents in numerous OH polls. Again, we are doubtful that Democratic turnout and popular vote margins in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County-as well as Columbus, Cincinnati, Akron and Toledo-will match Obama's 2008 totals. The President's vote margins came from exceptionally high African American turnout, and that is unlikely this year. Additionally, Obama has a problem in some of the coal-producing counties like Belmont, Harrison and Perry. There is no doubt that the auto-bailout helped Obama in this state but in the end we think Ohio will go to the Governor by about one point and give him the election.

Wisconsin will benefit from the Walker machine and Paul Ryan's presence on the ticket. It will follow Ohio and give Romney a one-point victory. Colorado is also tight but our sense is that it, too, goes to Romney. Obama has rarely been above 47 percent in Colorado and is unlikely to top out above 48.5 percent. Romney wins by two points.

Finally, here is how we see the Senate and House races:

Republicans will pick up two seats in the Senate getting to 49. In the House, we think the GOP will pick up one seat (a virtual status quo election) giving them 243 seats, compared to 192 for the Democrats.

Special thanks to Kelsey Cohen, Chris Blunt, Pete Ventimiglia and Allison Quigley for their insights and contributions to this monitor. I should be clear that not all of the above agreed with the final projection here. We had a spirited debate. Ultimately the final "projection" is my own.

Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008, but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.

Election Monitor: 5 Days to Go and Trend Model Says Romney Wins Popular Vote

2012-11-01T12:31:03-04:00
Here's some of what's being said about this campaign -- from a public opinion perspective -- as we enter its final few days: Gallup leans too Republican. Ohio and Iowa polls have too many Democrats. Obama can't be winning if Independents are going with Romney by double digits. The national numbers and the state polls are telling two different stories. All of the above are probably true. But instead of creating confusion, our sense is that it's leading to some clarity. With five days to go before the election, it is now pretty clear that -- barring a destabilizing external event -- Mitt Romney will likely win the national popular vote for president. The only remaining question is whether the president's Midwest firewall will hold and give him an Electoral College victory.

More than anything else, we strongly believe in three predictive indicators, all of which suggest that the president will lose the popular vote. First is his current vote share, which stands at approximately 47-47.5 percent. Incumbents rarely improve on their final poll numbers by more than one or two points, putting Obama at approximately 48-49 percent on Election Day.

Second, Romney has more than a 10-point lead among Independents nationally and in most key swing states. Our average of national polls fielded over the last two weeks shows Romney with a 14-point lead among Independents. For context, that's a full six points better than Obama's eight-point advantage over McCain in 2008. The Ohio poll average shows Romney with an eight-point lead among Independents. The only outlier in the below chart is Kerry's 19-point win among Independents in 2004 (something that may be attributable to "quirky" exits that year).

It is highly unlikely that the president can win this election if he is losing Independents by double digits. And there aren't any indicators suggesting that Democrat turnout will be large enough to compensate for that.

Which leads to the third point: voter enthusiasm and energy is with the GOP. A recent Pew poll had Republicans with a 14-point lead over Democrats in terms of vote likelihood.

Put these three elements together -- Obama's current vote share, Romney's lead among Independent voters and overall GOP enthusiasm -- and it strongly suggests that Romney will win the popular vote. But if you want some more empirical data... here you go.

Using a regression equation, we were able to produce a model trend and project Romney's vote share out to election day. As of today, the model trend says that Romney is +1.9 percent. Tomorrow he would be +2.2 percent. Friday is +2.5 percent. The intercept is almost exactly +3.5; in other words, the below model suggests that Romney will win the popular vote by 3.5 points. Now let's assume this trend flattens a bit because of Super Storm Sandy. Our current estimate (which we will update next Tuesday morning) suggests that Romney will capture 51 percent of the popular vote to Obama's 48.5 percent. The trend line-based on 26 national polls conducted over the last 30 days --is both unmistakable and virtually unassailable.

Here is our up-to-the-minute take on the current environment:

Hurricane Sandy helped the president politically, but it is unlikely to alter the election dynamic in any meaningful way. While the storm gave Obama a chance to look and act presidential, its greatest impact was in changing the storyline. What does it say about the president's trend that pundits latched onto this as the 2012 "October Surprise?" Team Romney did all the right things during this disaster and didn't hurt itself politically. And let's also remember that Sandy will have an economic toll, with cost estimates ranging between $30-50 billion. Additionally, Sandy could reduce fourth quarter GDP by half a point.

Team Obama's race to define Romney as an "out of touch elitist" continues to pay off. The most troubling issue for Governor Romney is his perceived inability to understand the plight of average Americans. When Pew asked voters which candidate "connects well with ordinary people," Obama led Romney two-to-one (59 percent to 31 percent). This is hurting Romney everywhere, but it's especially damaging to his chances in Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire. Again, that early Obama advertising in the spring and summer defined Romney and has continued to pay dividends for Team Obama.

However, Romney's personal image has improved while Obama's has eroded. Romney's favorability rating is now approximately the same as Obama's (49-50 percent). Interestingly, the president's barrage of negative television spots -- while sometimes quite effective -- has taken a toll on his own favorability. The president's unfavorables have risen between five-six points in two months, and are now almost equal to his favorability rating. This represents a dramatic turnaround.

Tomorrow's jobs report will be important. Obama needs some good news here and he may get it. While it is hard to determine what the report's impact will be (since it's being released so late in the game), it has the potential to provide momentum to either candidate.

It appears that Romney is outspending Obama on the air by a two-to-one margin. According to Mark Murray at First Read, team Romney is spending $82.9 million in the final week of the campaign compared to Obama's $44.6 million.

All of the above is telling us one thing: this race is exceedingly close. We said a few weeks ago that this will come down to Ohio and we stand by that. The polling in Ohio shows the president up two to four points (and some have the president leading by even more than that). The question is whether Democrats are being oversampled; our gut instinct is that they are. If they are not, then Obama wins the state and wins the Electoral College quite handily. Both camps have a strong "ground game" in the state, but our inclination is to look at voter enthusiasm and Republicans have the edge there. Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and NH are also too close to call at this point. Nevada is leaning Obama and Virginia and Florida toward Romney.

On Tuesday morning we will release our final popular and electoral vote projections.

Thanks again to Pete Ventimiglia, Kelsey Cohen, Chris Blunt and Allison Quigley for their insights and contributions to the Election Monitor. Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008, but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.

Election Monitor: 14 Days to Go and Romney Rise Continues

2012-10-23T11:24:00-04:00
Friends,

Last night was a draw, plain and simple. Both candidates were quite good and neither made a glaring error. Obama needed to be more energetic and aggressive and appeal to his base. He did that. Romney needed to reassure swing voters that he had the temperament to be commander-in-chief. He did that. Nothing that happened last night changed the overall trajectory of this race. The Romney surge may have slowed -- but it continues -- and Team Obama likely wishes the election was held today. With exactly 14 days to go, Romney is poised to catch or overtake the president in key battleground states. If the president has an October surprise, he should use it now.

Yes, the president was more aggressive last night and scored more rhetorical punches. He may, in fact, have won the debate on points. Romney, however, just might have won the strategic campaign battle. Team Obama sought to paint Romney as reckless (the president even used this word) and bellicose. Romney came across as neither, either stylistically or from a content perspective. According to a CNN/ORC snap poll Obama won the debate 48 percent to 40 percent. He also had a 51 percent to 46 percent edge on leadership. But the two were tied on likeability. Two months ago, Obama led Romney on likeability by 20 points. To be even on likeability and nearly even on the leadership attribute is a huge boost for Romney. Finally, the CNN survey also asked whether voters thought Romney could handle being commander-in-chief. By a 22-point margin (60 percent to 38 percent) voters answered in the affirmative. Last night Team Romney wanted a debate performance that would help them win the election, but not necessarily win the actual debate. Time will tell if that strategy was correct.

For a sitting president to go on the attack as President Obama did last night suggests that this was a strategic calculation born of necessity. The president has been losing vote share for nearly 30 days. Our projected election trend line shows that there has been a substantial structural change to the race. Obama maxed out his vote share after a) the Democratic convention and b) Romney's 47 percent comment. Since the first debate, it has been all Romney. This line is so steep that we are hesitant to project it out because it would show a Romney landslide. While our sense is that the Romney ascent has begun to slow, it does show a 5-6 point shift that represents this election's clearest and most substantial vote share change.

The following is our take on the current political milieu:

This race will come down to Ohio. We say this with full acknowledgement that either candidate can still win the election without Ohio but we think that is unlikely. This race is looking a lot like 2004. If the president can sustain his lead in Ohio (it is now five points according to a recent CBS News/Quinnipiac survey, which is significant but down from 10 points two weeks ago) he will likely win a second term. It is that simple. While Romney could take Iowa and Wisconsin to offset Ohio... that seems unlikely. If Ohio goes to Obama, one of the other two big ten states will most likely follow suit, giving the president an electoral college win. Below is our snapshot of the Ohio horserace. We have Obama up by two points but the trend has been toward Romney. If you watch one state, this should be the one.

The suburban vote will be key. In 2008, Obama won key swing state suburbs handily. He ran strongly among white independent voters and college educated white women, beating McCain among both groups. This year, the latest polling shows him losing among both audiences. As Gerald Seib recently pointed out, the latest WSJ/NBC poll has Romney leading among college educated white women by four points (51 percent to 47 percent). He has to reverse this trend to carry states like Colorado, New Hampshire and Ohio.

The generic congressional ballot suggests the electorate looks a lot more like 2004 than 2008. As the table below shows, Republican vote share on GCB is ahead of 2008 by seven points. In fact, the GCB is almost even (43 percent GOP and 45 percent Dem). In 2008 Democrats had a 13-point advantage.

The irony of the Romney rise is that it has come at a time of improved economic news. In addition to the better than expected unemployment number a few weeks ago, gas prices appear to be on the decline. This will help the president.

Our sense is that none of the eight toss-up battleground states can be moved into either candidate's column. Some may have moved Nevada into Obama's column but as evidenced by Romney's travel there today it remains in play. There are 95 electoral votes up for grabs.

We will be back next week. Thanks again to Pete Ventimiglia, Kelsey Cohen and Allison Quigley for their insights and contributions to the Election Monitor. Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008, but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.

21 Days to Go and This Race Is Essentially Tied

2012-10-16T12:58:56-04:00
Any serious observer of the presidential election has to be scratching his/her head. In mid-September Obama was on track for reelection because Romney, at that point, had been deemed unacceptable by a vast segment of the electorate. Now, in mid-October, the President is dazed, staggered by a near knockout in the first debate and a subsequent Romney surge that seems to have the Governor on a winning trajectory. The problem is that neither scenario accounts for unplanned events. No one anticipated what happened in the first debate (a huge Romney performance and a terrible one from the president), but it did and it has changed things considerably. This election is roughly back to where it was in May of this year before Team Obama decimated Romney with negative ads. With 21 days to go, this race is essentially tied.

It is not an exaggeration to say that the debate two weeks ago shifted the course of this election dramatically. As we noted, the race began to show a natural tightening -- as you would expect -- about 30 days ago, but this accelerated after the October 3rd debate. That night, nearly 70 million viewers watched both candidates debate. The following week -- and its avalanche of negative reviews -- was devastating for the president. Even the positive jobs report did little to stop the bleeding. Below is our election trend line; it speaks for itself. There has been a significant change to the trend following the first presidential debate, and the VP debate did nothing to change its trajectory (it's entirely possible that tonight's debate, of course, could alter the current trend).

For the first time in four months Romney is even with -- or slightly ahead of -- the president. As you can see, the last 20 days have seen this election's most extreme vote change period. In addition to picking up undecided voters, some "lean Obama" voters switched to Romney.

While the race is roughly even, the president still retains an electoral vote edge... but that too is beginning to show signs of erosion. Three weeks ago we thought the race had narrowed to seven battleground states. The Romney surge, however, has put one of those seven (North Carolina) into the lean GOP column. It has also added two states that were previously lean Obama back into the toss-up column: New Hampshire and Wisconsin. In all, there are now eight toss-up states, all of which are within the margin of error. Below is our updated EV projection map:

Let's take a quick look at what each of the candidates has going for him as we head into the campaign's final three weeks. For Romney:

Team Romney had one debate goal -- to lower his unfavorable rating -- and it succeeded. For months, the Governor's unfavorable rating was in an unelectable range. Our analysis of recent polling data suggests that Romney has had a stunning reversal on this front. Romney's unfavorable rating has dropped seven-eight points in 14 days. His current favorable/unfavorable rating is actually better than Obama's.

Women are driving the Romney surge. While the Governor has consistently led the president among men he has been down among women by as much as 10-15 points. The latest Gallup poll shows Romney even with Obama among women (Romney at 48 percent, Obama at 49 percent). Romney clearly connected with women in the first debate; this will be a crucial indicator to watch after tonight's debate.

For President Obama:

The economy is showing more signs of improvement. It is not just the falling unemployment rate: housing starts are up, the stock market is climbing and consumer confidence is improving. Which leads us to...

Perceptions of the direction of the country continue to improve. While nearly six in ten still think that things are off on the wrong track, it would be significant for the president if more than 40 percent think things are going in the right direction by election day.

Obama has a chance to beat the expectations game tonight. Debate expectations for the president are far lower for this debate then they were for round one. Going into the first debate most people thought Obama would win (giving Obama the edge by more than 20 points). Now, according to a Pew survey, people think Obama will do better than Romney by a margin of just 41 to 37 percent. The media is ready to write the Obama comeback story, all they need is a script.

Thanks again to Pete Ventimiglia, Chris Blunt, Kelsey Cohen and Allison Quigley for their insights and contributions to the Election Monitor. Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008, but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.

Election Monitor: 32 Days to Go and Jobs Data Saves Obama from Abysmal Week

2012-10-05T11:11:11-04:00
This morning, President Obama moved one step closer to reelection. The September jobs report showed 114,000 jobs added -- and unemployment dropped to 7.8 percent -- the lowest rate in four years. In addition, August jobs numbers were revised upwards. Yes, Governor Romney won the debate Wednesday night in Denver in convincing fashion, but that bounce may be somewhat short-lived. Team Romney desperately needed a 1-2 punch -- a great debate and a poor unemployment report -- to realign this campaign. They got the first but not the second and so, with 32 days to go, the race is tightening but it is still Obama's to lose.

Now he might do just that if he doesn't have a better second debate. Let's go back to Wednesday night for a moment. This wasn't just a convincing win for Governor Romney, it was a loss for the president. Listen to the pundits and we heard it all: Romney aggressive, the President didn't want to be there, Obama isn't used to people challenging him, Romney had facility with facts and data, Obama was on the defensive, etc. All true. But the visceral translation for some swing voters was this: Romney just might be better than the president we have now. Romney strategist Stuart Stevens put it well when he said "the president didn't have a bad debate, he has a bad record." And Obama failed to defend that record on Wednesday. For those 90 minutes this election was both a referendum and a choice... and Team Obama wants nothing to do with the referendum part.

We have all seen the numbers. More than 67 million people watched the debates on television and an indeterminate amount watched online. Snap polls showed that viewers thought Romney "won" by a two to one margin. Romney even won big in the social media universe. Below is an analysis of social media mentions of the two candidates -- as well as a look at voter sentiment toward them -- for a period including the debate and one hour after its conclusion. Romney led in terms of sheer volume: 54 percent to 46 percent. This almost never happens because those on social media tend to be younger and, as a result, they are far more likely to be Obama supporters. Typical social media volume for the president is two to one in his favor when compared to Governor Romney's.

The data below shows the total volume of conversation (includes: Twitter, blogs, online news, Facebook and forums) and overall sentiment toward President Obama and Governor Romney immediately before, during and after Wednesday's Presidential debate. The charts validate our expectation that Romney's strong performance during the debate would lead to an increase in online conversation and generate positive commentary.

What comes next? Look for key battleground states polls early next week. That will tell us how much the election has been realigned. The vice presidential debate will be interesting, but what everyone will be waiting for is Romney-Obama Redux. And for that one, the media will be poised to write the "Obama comeback" story. If Obama is even moderately engaged in the second debate, the media will likely proclaim him the winner. OK, we jest (sort of). But the point is that the president will go into that debate as the underdog, allowing him to play the expectations game to his advantage.

Thanks again to Pete Ventimiglia, Geoff Nykin, Kelsey Cohen and Allison Quigley for their insights and contributions to the Election Monitor. Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008, but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.

Election Monitor: The Most Important Week of the Campaign

2012-10-02T10:51:33-04:00
The Romney campaign appears to have righted itself in the last week, going on the offensive over Libya and working to reframe the race as a choice between two distinctly different governing philosophies. The president and his team are playing defense on Benghazi while continuing to assail the Governor's Massachusetts record. While the president still holds a lead in key battleground states, the national polling data is showing some tightening. With both the first presidential debate (tomorrow night in Denver) and the release of the latest unemployment numbers (Friday morning) we have entered the most important week of the presidential election. The next five days will go a long way toward determining the outcome on November 7th.

The following is our up-to-the-minute take on the current state of the election and some thoughts on key battleground states:

It's still all about the economy. According to a recent CBS News/NYT poll, voters identified unemployment and jobs as this election's most important issue (43 percent). Second is the federal deficit at 14 percent. Yes, there is something to be said about people acclimating to the "new normal" of stagnation but they still want something done to improve the situation. Voters are starting to believe that the president is performing better on the economy because they think things are improving slightly, not because people are fatigued on the issue. A recent NBC/WSJ poll shows that the percentage of voters who believe that the economy will "get better" in the next 12 months improved from 28 percent in July to 42 percent in mid-September.

As the Wall Street Journal's Matthew Dalton said at a forum we both spoke at yesterday in Brussels: "The President is not doing better in spite of the economy, he is doing better because of the economy." Simply put, voters are slightly more optimistic. As we said a year ago, it's not the unemployment rate that's important, it's the trend to the unemployment rate. That is why the jobs data on Friday is so critical. If the economy added more than 100k jobs in August and the unemployment rate ticks down a bit, it will be a huge boost for the president.

This election is unlikely to turn on Benghazi. To be sure, the Administration is vulnerable here, but unless voter salience increases it will have only a marginal impact on the race. According to the aforementioned CBS/NYT poll, only 6 percent of voters cite the "situation in the Middle East" as the most important issue facing the country today. Romney may be able to overtake President Obama in terms of their perceived ability to handle foreign affairs, but unless it is matched with a similar result on handling the economy it will have little impact on the election.

Europe, however, is a problem for Obama. Yesterday, we learned that unemployment in the 17-member euro zone rose to 11.4 percent, the highest level since the introduction of the euro in 1999. Team Obama has been hoping to avoid a full blown eurozone crisis... at least until after the election. While the debt crisis is probably on hold, a further weakening of the European economy may have an effect on U.S. markets.

The president's job approval numbers are now in the re-elect zone. The latest Gallup poll has President Obama's approval rating at 50 percent. While this is slightly behind President G. W. Bush's September 2004 numbers, it is well ahead of where he was six months ago (42 percent). As you can see from the below chart, the two presidents to lose reelection -- President Carter and President G.H.W. Bush -- had an approval rating well below 50 percent in November. If the president's approval rating stays at or near 50 percent, he has a strong likelihood of winning reelection.

Romney's unfavorable rating is an albatross around his neck. Perhaps more than anything else, the debates have to improve Governor Romney's likeability. Yes, he has to contrast his vision of the future from the president's, but he desperately needs to convince swing voters that he cares about people like them. Romney's unfavorable rating exceeds his favorability score by four points; quite simply, he is unelectable with an underwater favorability rating. The debates have to change that or he will lose in November.

Expect a Romney debate bounce. Others have made this point, but simply standing on the same stage as the president will help Romney's cause. And a recent ABC poll showed that most Americans expect the President to "win" the Wednesday debate; even if Romney fights to a draw, he'll be seen as exceeding expectations. While that won't be enough to win the election, it will help his poll numbers over the next week.

One thing that has caught our attention is the state of the generic congressional ballot. Historically, this has been a pretty good predictor of the composition of the electorate on election-day (if not the outcome itself). According to a Real Clear Politics analysis of past elections, their final average of all generic congressional ballot snapshots came awfully close to the actual vote. As a reminder, Republicans had a seven-point advantage in 2010 (52-R, 45-D), while Democrats enjoyed a 10-point advantage (43-R, 53-D) in 2008. This year RCP has the generic congressional ballot about even. In 2004, when Bush was reelected, Republicans had a two-point GCB advantage (49-47). For Republicans, being even with Democrats on the generic ballot is a positive development. This, combined with the enthusiasm gap that the GOP still enjoys, does offer some hope for those looking for a Romney turnaround.

Our assessment of the Electoral College remains basically unchanged with Obama at 247 lean or strong electoral votes and Romney with 191. Our sense is that eight states are in play: NV, CO, IA, OH, NH, VA, NC and FL. While Ohio and Florida have far larger EV contributions, New Hampshire has to be most troubling for Team Romney. The Governor has a summer house there and is well known to Granite State voters. Yet he has only led Obama in two of the 17 polls conducted there since January. A recent WMUR/University of NH poll had the President ahead by 15 points. While clearly an outlier, it suggests that the state is quickly moving away from Governor Romney.

Thanks again to Pete Ventimiglia, Kelsey Cohen and Allison Quigley for their insights and contributions to the election monitor. Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008, but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.

Election Monitor: 42 Days to Go and It Is Obama's Race to Lose

2012-09-25T12:15:01-04:00
Sometimes looks can be deceiving; this is especially true of the 2012 electoral map. At first glance it looks pretty good for Governor Romney. There is an awful lot of red and quite a few toss-up states, and in a number of those toss-up states there are only a few points separating the two candidates. The problem for the Romney campaign is that the president's lead in several of those states is slowly moving beyond the margin of error. If the current trajectory continues, we may have to move three or four of those states into the "lean Obama" column within the next week. With just 42 days to go before Election Day, this is Barack Obama's race to lose.

Before we take an in-depth look at the current state of the electoral map, here's a quick snapshot of the current political environment:

This morning begins day two of Governor Romney's attack on President Obama's "bumps in the road" comment, putting him back on the offensive for the first time in nearly a month. The comment did strike a chord and I suspect we will see the president admit as much in the next 24 hours, saying that he could have chosen his words better. Our sense, however, is that "bumps in the road" will not be the kind of jarring/visceral comment that "47 percent" was. More importantly, we have to ask if this detour into foreign policy is ultimately good for the Romney campaign. After all, talking about "bumps in the road" means two fewer days of discussing the economy. In Chicago, David Axelrod is smiling.

The president will speak at the United Nations today and it is another example of how incumbency is a huge advantage. Yes, Romney spoke this morning at the Clinton Global Initiative and was generally solid. But Obama speaking in that environment is far bigger.

Forget all the nonsense about Obama not meeting with world leaders. Voters aren't concerned about that in the least. This election is about pocketbook issues and Team Obama knows it. Look for Obama to continue to hammer Romney on his 47 percent comments and only offering solutions for the rich. This is the road they will travel for the remainder of the campaign.

The one thing Romney has going for him is enthusiasm among likely voters. Poll after poll continues to suggest that Romney is even or even slightly ahead among highly interested voters. This cannot be ignored. The question is whether those highly motivated voters are significant enough in size to impact key swing states like Ohio and Florida.

For all that has been said and spent in this campaign, the next six weeks will be all about just eight states: two out West (Nevada and Colorado), two in the upper Midwest (Iowa and Ohio) and four on the East Coast (New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida). After careful consideration we have put Wisconsin in the lean Obama column. Here is what this means:

By our calculation, Obama has 247 solid or lean votes, just 23 electoral votes shy of the 270 needed for victory. In the Romney column, there are 191 solid or lean votes, putting him 79 electoral votes short of a 2012 victory. Given the state of the race, we're starting to move some of the "leaning" states into either the Obama or Romney columns.

What remains are 100 electoral votes that are still up for grabs in the above mentioned eight states.

Obama is ahead in every single battleground state -- whether by a hair or outside the margin of error. This isn't to suggest that every state will go his way, but this does say something about the state of the race.

Below is our electoral vote map.

Of the eight remaining battleground states, our analysis of public polling trends suggests that four of them fall into a "true" toss-up category: Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire and North Carolina. In each the President leads by anywhere from a single point to three points. In essence, a tie. Take Florida, for example. There the president leads Governor Romney by three points -- 49 percent to 46 percent -- but has been on the upswing for a few weeks. Remember that Romney took the lead in Florida during and after the GOP convention in Tampa; that lead has slipped away.

The point is that all four of these states are simply too close and too volatile to allow us to make any claims about a vote share advantage for either candidate. They are truly too close to call.

In the four remaining states, however, Obama has staked out a small but clear four to five point lead: see Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. Let's call these "near lean Obama" states. Of these, by far the most troubling for the Romney campaign has to be Ohio, where our analysis shows the President with a four point advantage. Again, Ohio can go either way, but if the current trajectory holds it could be out of Romney's reach by next weekend.

We will be back again next week.

Thanks again to Pete Ventimiglia, Kelsey Cohen and Allison Quigley for their insights and contributions to the election monitor. Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008, but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.

Election Monitor: 47 Days to Go and the Pendulum Has Swung Toward Obama

2012-09-20T12:16:18-04:00
We can talk about 47 percent, the Libya stumbles, the lack of message discipline and a weak convention, but the simple fact is that the president and his team have had a better strategy than Team Romney from Day 1 and they have executed it to perfection. The result? Governor Romney has a damaged political persona and he's running behind the President in key states like Ohio, Virginia and -- to a lesser extent -- Florida. Losses in those three guarantee an Obama victory. With 47 days to go, the president has reversed his decline after his "you didn't build that" comment, is on a three week message win roll and is now likely to be reelected.

How did we get here? As usual, it hasn't been just one thing; instead, the cumulative impact of a series of external events and strategic and tactical moves by each team has resulted in a significant competitive advantage for the president. In no particular order, here is our take on the most important of those events:

Romney entered the general election as a damaged and flawed candidate. Yes, this has happened to others who have rebounded, but this is different. Governor Romney's political persona was formed during the primaries when voters began to view him as elitist, rich and out of touch. This is where the Democrats' early advertising was crucial. Remember, Romney had to fight a two-front war as both Gingrich and the Democrats attacked Bain. It helped to galvanize a perception that has stuck like glue. Of course, miscues by the candidate and the campaign both old (the $10,000 bet) and new (47 percent) have reinforced this perception. That is why the 47 percent comment was so problematic. It was another layer on an already existing perception. The problem now is that this thing has hardened, making it virtually impossible to change.

Team Obama's early advertising strategy to make Romney an unacceptable alternative worked. They were able to define Romney before he had a chance to define himself. Of course, the Romney team inadvertently aided that effort but not doing a substantial positive media buy to explain who Mitt Romney is and what kind of President he might be. Romney's favorability rating is currently underwater with 44 percent favorable and 45 percent unfavorable. In the latest WSJ/NBC poll only 38 percent of the electorate had a positive impression of him. According to the latest CBS/NYT poll, only 37 percent of Virginia voters think that Romney "cares about people like them." This is politically debilitating.

Perceptions of the economy are improving. While unemployment remains high and GDP growth is abysmal, the stock market has improved (taking 401(k)s with it). Additionally, don't underestimate how effectively Team Obama has hammered home the idea that the president inherited a big problem. He has been saying it since he was inaugurated with extraordinarily good message discipline. Voters are likely to give him partial credit here.

Obama's approval rating is now in the "likely reelect zone. " We have been saying for months that an approval rating in the low- to mid-40s makes reelection difficult. Since last year, however, Obama's approval rating has improved by 5-6 points. He is now at approximately 49 percent approval, which is comparable to where President George W. Bush was in 2004.

The President had a strong convention and Romney had a weak one. Poor speeches and Eastwood's chair aside, the fact is that the RNC did not achieve its principal objective: to re-launch a re-branded Romney and create momentum heading into September. Forget all the talk about the convention's mechanics; this was about transforming the narrative. And they did not do that. Of course, the Democrats had the advantage of going second but the RNC did not put Team Obama on its heels. Speaking of which...

Team Romney has been in reactive mode for a month. Of course, part of this is a continuous cycle of damage control but there does not appear to be a forward-looking strategy. By now, we fully expected to see some sort of economic proposal or initiative that would have forced the Obama campaign to respond. This has not happened.

Last but certainly not least there was Libya. With respect to Team Romney, there seemed to be little recognition of the most basic political tenet of a foreign crisis: when there is an international incident in which America is attacked, voters in this country will (at least in the short term) rally around the flag and the president. Always. It is stunning that Team Romney failed to recognize this. In times of domestic crisis (the BP oil spill is a great example) voters will look to their political leaders and can be pretty quick to lay blame. On the other hand, it usually takes some time for voters to sour on how their leaders have handled international crises. Iraq is the perfect example.

The result is that the President is now running ahead (beyond the margin of error) of Romney in key battleground states including Virginia, Ohio, Florida and New Hampshire. Ohio is particularly troubling since it is awfully hard to see a winning Romney coalition without it.

The biggest problem for Governor Romney is that he is underperforming with key subgroups that are critical to his election chances. Romney is running behind Obama -- as well as behind McCain's 2008 performance (as measured by exit polls) -- among women, Catholics and independents.

Of course there are six weeks left until Election Day. Among likely voters, nationally only two-three points separate the two candidates. The RCP average has the race at 48-45 percent, as does Pollster.com. Here are a few reasons suggesting that there is still some hope for Romney:

The electorate is likely to look more like 2010 than 2008, so the President won't benefit from the explosion in young voters that occurred four years ago. It also means the Tea Party will have some influence. The question is how much? Romney needs to change the dynamic in order to reenergize his voters. Which brings us to the next point...

The first debate on October 3rd will be critical. Yes, everyone says this, but we will go one step further: if Romney clearly wins the first debate, he has a good chance of reversing the trajectory of the last three weeks. Why? Because support for Obama remains lukewarm. Remember that the President won with 53 percent in an economic meltdown. Our sense is that his ceiling is around 51 percent. That is why he is not running away with this thing even after Romney's myriad stumbles. Further, history tells us that the debates can have a significant impact. In 2000, Bush got a bump after every debate and Gore's vote share diminished. In fact, according to Gallup polling at that time, Gore's eight-point lead vanished after the first debate.

Finally, the economy is still weak and the jobs report on October 5th will be pivotal. A strong one may ensure an Obama victory. On the other hand, a poor one on the heels of a Romney debate win could realign this race.

More next week. Thanks to Pete Ventimiglia, Kelsey Cohen, Nicole Rusenko and Allison Quigley for their contributions to this Election Monitor. Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008, but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.

Election Monitor: Why This Election Comes Down to Two Days in October

2012-09-12T13:05:05-04:00
Several national polls released this week show that President Obama received a small but meaningful bounce after the conventions. The bounce -- in the 3-5 point range -- is within the median for convention bounces since 1964. The problem for Republicans is that Romney got no bounce from his convention. In fact, his vote share likely shrunk a point or two in the last two weeks. While the Republican convention may have strengthened Romney's position with the base, it did little to expand his coalition. The momentum from "You didn't build that" has been halted.

However, we see nothing in the data yet to suggest this is anything but a dead heat. For all the hand wringing over the GOP convention and the Romney campaign they are in a dead heat with an incumbent President with 55 days to go. When you look at likely voters in key swing states, this thing is truly 50/50.

Here is our take as of 12 a.m. EST:

The murder of Ambassador Stevens and the unrest in Libya will thrust both candidates into the foreign policy fray. It will be very interesting to see how each handles the coming hours and days and how much the media -- and ultimately voters -- focuses on the issue.

Look for a higher level of advertising spend from the Romney campaign in key battleground states over the next two weeks. History has shown that the candidate who is clearly in the lead by mid to late September will likely be the winner in November. That doesn't mean things can't change in October -- they can. But sentiment will start to firm up in the next two weeks. The Romney campaign has a $60 million cash-on-hand advantage, and they should use it now. Team Obama defined Romney in the spring using their cash advantage; the Romney campaign should not wait until October. They need to change the dynamic before October 1.

The two biggest dates of the campaign are October 3rd and October 5th. The first debate will be held on Wednesday, October 3rd at the University of Denver at 9 p.m. EST. For three reasons this will be far and away the most important debate:

It is the first and therefore, unless there is a major blunder, is likely to be the one that sets the image of Romney in stone.

We really do not believe that the other two will matter if Romney has a poor debate performance here. Romney has to win this debate pure and simple.

This one is purely on domestic policy, i.e. the economy. If Romney can't win this one, he is unlikely to win the other two, barring a miscue by the President.

On October 5th at 8:30 a.m. EST the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September unemployment numbers. This will be the most impactful announcement of the campaign. If the unemployment rate goes up it could be devastating for the president's reelection chances. Similarly, if it goes down -- especially if it goes below 8 percent -- it may pretty much secure an Obama victory in November.

Neither convention was a game-changer. Although Romney saw a bump in favorability, Obama had an overall vote share gain. The net result is that while the last three or four national polls show a slight Obama advantage, we are essentially still looking at very similar head-to-head poll results that we saw three weeks ago. Our analysis shows Obama with a 2 point lead nationally but still below 50 percent.

It's safe to say that the Democrats had the more successful convention , despite having the higher bar. Democrats managed to project a sense of optimism while still acknowledging the country's economic struggles. Their speeches -- especially President Clinton's and First Lady Michelle Obama's -- managed to make an effective case for President Obama's reelection by talking about his values and how his first three and a half years have laid the foundation for greater things to come. We'll see if this resonates with undecided voters, but at the very least the speeches were affecting and well-delivered.

Republicans were only moderately successful at humanizing their candidate; not even Ann Romney could flesh out a more authentic picture of her husband. Probably the best aspect of the GOP convention was the short biographical film about the candidate, which was quickly overshadowed by Clint Eastwood and his chair - which was found to be the "highlight" of the convention in a recent Pew poll. Regardless, making Mitt Romney an acceptable alternative to the President wasn't a high bar, and if Republicans succeeded it was just barely. The convention was certainly not the home run it could have been, but this is ultimately the fault of the candidate.

In fact, neither presidential candidate hit anywhere close to a home run in their speeches. Clinton or Rice would get an award for best convention speech far before either of the actual candidates , which pretty much sums up the race.

A look at the electoral map suggests that Romney has little margin for error moving forward. If you look at the RCP margins on all of the battleground states, Obama is ahead in virtually all of them, save for Missouri and North Carolina (which shouldn't really be a battleground state, anyway). To be sure, most of these numbers are within the margin of error; that having been said, it speaks volumes that the President is in the position he's in when you consider the country's economic environment. To significantly move the dial in the next 55 days, Romney is going to need to win the first debate, use his spending advantage now, and hope for a bad jobs report.

As we have been hammering home, the first debate will be critical -- far more so than it was in 2008. Unlike John McCain, who at that point had very little hope of defeating President Obama, Mitt Romney remains within striking distance. Also, Obama was perceived as "the clear winner" on the economy in the first 2008 debate, but obviously that history will be tough to repeat in 2012.

A strong debate performance from Romney could help to reverse the perception (shared by much of the inside-the-beltway chattering class) that President Obama is beginning to pull away. Romney is capable of a strong debate performance; the problem is that he's also capable of a terrible performance, so which Romney shows up will be crucial. President Obama is the steadier debate performer but if the "good Romney" shows up -- and Romney is most comfortable when talking about the economy, which will be the focus of the first debate -- he could make a strong positive impression on those wavering undecideds.

At the first presidential debate we can expect to see some provoking of Romney on budget specifics and "running numbers." The Obama campaign has been pushing this narrative and it seems to be resonating, especially with Americans' exaggerated valuation of fiscal responsibility this election, so the Romney camp will need to figure out how to deflect these types of attacks.

My thanks to Pete Ventimiglia, Kelsey Cohen and Allison Quigley for their valuable thoughts and insights. Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008, but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.

Election Monitor: The Turning Point That Nobody Noticed

2012-09-05T11:57:07-04:00
Although most pundits are talking about the fast start to last night's Democratic convention, we wanted to take a moment to focus your attention on a trend that most people have not yet flagged. In short, the Romney vote share has been quietly and slowly increasing for a month. This under-the-radar shift is being driven in part by a simple line from a straightforward political speech. And it has the potential to be a game changer.

On July 13, 2012 President Obama said: "If you got a business, you didn't build that, somebody else made that happen." Republicans seized on this and for a brief period the statement caught the media's attention. At the time, we thought this was a pretty significant moment because it had the potential to be interpreted by voters as a glimpse into what the president truly believed. Yes, the aforementioned quote is preceded by 50 seconds of context of how different people in everyone's lives help them advance in life (see the video here). But the core of the statement was something that stuck. In politics, you are always looking for a hook, a simple symbol or cue that represents either the core values of your candidate or your opponent. Team Romney ran with it, and for good reason. Our trend analysis of all publicly-available polling data suggests that this statement was a hook made of gold. Put another way: this graph shows "You Didn't Build That" was literally a turning point in the campaign.

Our idea was to create a trend line using (and sorry for getting into the polling weeds) a quadratic linear regression equation that finds the best fit between the net Romney percent in the individual poll results and the time remaining before the election. By focusing on polls that finished on June 1st or later, we were able to estimate a regression trend line. While we will use the trend chart in future Election Monitors I hereby promise not to bore you with the above again. The result is startling.

While we are not comfortable projecting an actual election result from this data (it's simply too early) the trend itself tells an interesting story. As the above chart demonstrates, Obama had a slight lead at the beginning of June, which grew somewhat as Obamacare was upheld and he saturated the airwaves with swing state advertising into July. Obama's lead reached its widest margin, just shy of four points, on the day of his "You didn't build that" speech (July 13). The trend since has been all Romney. He had virtually erased Obama's lead by the opening of the GOP convention and, as of the latest polls, has pulled into the slightest of leads (basically up a quarter of a point... but we will call it tied). Romney clearly has the momentum; the question, of course, is what the DNC will do to this momentum.

As we cautioned yesterday, don't read too much into day-to-day snapshot polls. But trends are something completely different.

My thanks to Pete Ventimiglia, Chris Blunt, Kelsey Cohen and Allison Quigley for their valuable thoughts and insights. Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

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(Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008, but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.)

Election Monitor: 63 Days to Go, Team Obama Is in a Box

2012-09-04T13:30:47-04:00
Friends,

The Obama team has a big problem this morning. They are in a box; it's not just that they fumbled this weekend's question over whether people are better off now than they were four years ago, it is that there is no real acceptable answer to the question.

They have an obvious problem if they say "no" -- as Democratic Governor O'Malley did on Sunday -- because it cuts the legs out from under their re-elect rationale. But it is just as problematic to say "yes" because it goes against voter perceptions of reality. At best people think things are the same, which is to say...lousy. That is why the President has been reticent to run around the country telling voters that things are better. That would make him sound disconnected from reality. More problematic is the fact that his campaign has spent millions of dollars -- and the last five months -- trying to kill Romney with messaging about Bain and off-shore accounts rather than laying out the foundation for a "we are better off" strategy. As a result, switching gears will be tricky. For the first time in a month, Romney is truly on the offensive and the polls show Obama's lead has narrowed.

Another problem for the President is that early indications are that last week's GOP convention may have moved the needle on Romney's biggest problem: his favorability rating. A new poll has Romney's favorability up nearly 10 points since the start of the GOP convention (see more on this below). The convention was largely a success (there were some problems, of course, Clint Eastwood and his empty chair being one of them) because it introduced a fuller Romney narrative to the voting public and began the process of humanizing the candidate. Ann Romney's speech helped on both fronts. She's an authentic and persuasive spokesperson for Romney (just as the First Lady was for the President four years ago) and her performance helped some voters see Mitt Romney in a different light (that of husband and father).

And don't dismiss the fact that Romney's convention speech was his introduction to millions of Americans who are just now starting to pay significant attention to the campaign. When your campaign's raison d'etre is your biography -- businessman, turnaround artist, problem solver, savior of the Olympics -- your convention speech is more important than usual. While the Governor's acceptance speech wasn't soaring rhetoric, it was a focused effort at reaching out to key swing voters (suburban women being his primary target).

With that said, here is our take on the current political environment:

Don't read too much into head to head polling shifts -- in either direction - - over the next two weeks. It's possible that the polls will shift around by a point or two in favor of one candidate or the other for the next few weeks, as is normal during convention season (expect to see quite a bit of "Romney up by one" and "Obama up by two" headlines). By the middle of September we should have a much better idea of where things stand because a) the conventions will be over, b) people will start paying more attention to the race, and c) pollsters will start looking at "likely voters," (some are starting to do this already) which will give a more realistic look at the electorate.

As we noted above, there has been a slight shift toward Romney (and this began even prior to the convention). We are waiting for the latest onslaught of public polls but our sense is that Romney will get a slight (perhaps 3-4 point) bounce from the convention. It seems unlikely that either candidate will enjoy a truly significant bounce. The number of truly undecided voters is quite small (the latest ABC/Washington Post poll shows 8% of adults and 6% of registered voters as "hard undecided"), so huge swings in favor of either candidate are unlikely. A look back at previous convention bumps shows that the 1992 Democratic convention was the last to produce a significant (i.e. double-digit) surge.

Source: Politics by the Numbers, Tom Holbrook

The one thing that has kept Romney's vote share down is that his personal favorability was so low. The convention may have changed that. New polling data suggests a substantial shift in favorability for Romney; he now has a one to one favorable/unfavorable ratio (the same as the President). A new Reuters/Ipsos (fielded 8/29-9/2) poll shows Romney's favorability spiked to an all-time high of 51% following the GOP convention (his unfavorability is at 49%). This suggests that the GOP accomplished one of its crucial goals last week--closing the empathy gap. Still, likeability hasn't moved the dial as much as was perhaps anticipated; Romney's post-convention bump in the head-to-head was less significant (Gallup's most recent poll, fielded 8/27-9/2, has Obama still up by 1: 47-46).

This explains why Team Obama refuses to take their foot off of Romney's throat. Their latest TV ad suggests again that he will cut taxes for the rich while hurting the middle class. This has been a consistent strategy for 5 months.

While somewhat forgotten, the Todd Akin situation hurt the GOP and Romney because it sucked all the oxygen out of the room for an entire week. While it is unlikely to have a significant and lasting effect on the Presidential race, the Akin news came at a time when the Romney-Ryan attacks on Medicare were taking hold. Now, the party's swift and unequivocal denunciation of Akin's comments helped to cauterize the wound (though it will be devastating for the Missouri GOP as Akin will surely lose). Our sense is that this will become an asterisk in the presidential campaign due to the GOP's success in marginalizing Akin as a fringe element.

Mitt Romney will never win a majority of women but he HAS to close the gender gap between now and election day. Romney cannot lose women by double digits... he has to close the gap to 3-5 points. As we have said before, the gender gap is nothing new and the President has his own problem in this area. But hand-wringing about the GOP's gender gap has been going on for decades. In 2008, Barack Obama won the female vote 56%-43%, and in 2004 John Kerry won women 51%-48%. Romney needs to aim to keep that number closer to the 2004 level.

This election is not about the economy -- it's about Americans' perceptions of the economy, specifically the perceptions of swing state voters. The Bureau of Labor Statistics may have reported an "encouraging" 8.2% unemployment rate in July, but Americans vote with their hearts. Statistics aren't going to sway them -- it's a matter of which party sells the more compelling narrative on the economy.

Obama and Romney are neck-and-neck going into the conventions with little expectation of a bump for either party. This will come down to voter mobilization and participation. Obama is concentrating on reviving his support among younger voters by pushing his track record with education and healthcare. He recently rolled out his youth engagement site -- barackobama.com/young-americans -- and will be campaigning at campuses in Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia this week.

Democrats will have a difficult needle to thread this week (certainly a much tougher job than the GOP's effort to humanize its candidate). The President's record, such as it is, is uninspiring on the issue that matters most (jobs). So Democrats need to a) project optimism about the country's direction while still acknowledging the current economic situation and b) discuss their plans for the next four years in such a way that voters won't ask an obvious question: "If these ideas are so great, why haven't you already tried them?"

Thanks again to Pete Ventimiglia, Kelsey Cohen and Allison Quigley for their thoughts and contributions to this election monitor. Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

(Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008, but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.)

Election Monitor: 84 Days to Go, But If the Election Were Held Today Obama Would Win

2012-08-14T16:17:25-04:00
Buried in most of the dissection of the Republican nominee's VP choice is one simple fact: Mitt Romney is losing this race. The Obama team's advertising assault that began in April has had an impact; Romney's favorability is underwater and he has lost ground in the head-to-head over the last 30 days. While the polls have bounced around over the last few months, we've settled into a period where the president is clearly ahead. I think we can safely say that if the election were held today Obama would win.

While the advertising spend for team Romney achieved parity with Obama's over the last few weeks, they were being outspent considerably in the spring and early summer. This took a toll. The negative assault on Romney -- including attacks on his time at Bain, offshore accounts and his refusal to release his personal tax records -- have framed a picture for swing voters that isn't pretty. Romney's favorability rating has dropped a few points since May, but take a close look at the increase in his unfavorables during that time. Right now, his unfavorable rating (47 percent) is higher than his favorable rating (44 percent). This is a debilitating situation for the Governor and needs to be corrected immediately if he is to take advantage of voter concerns over the weak economy.

The Obama campaign team has done an effective job of defining Romney as someone disinterested in -- and disconnected with -- the problems of the middle class. This is deadly for a presidential candidate and is similar to what the Clinton team did to Bob Dole in 1996 (which resulted in a similar underwater favorability rating). In fact, as the analysis below from Pew Research shows (using July numbers for the current candidates which for Romney are worse than our current assessment), Romney's favorability rating is the worst of any recent major presidential candidate.

When you look at vote share the picture is even more problematic for the Romney campaign. The trend shows that the gap between the two candidates has widened over the last 30 days. Our current average of the last five national polls of registered voters has Obama at 48 percent and Romney at 42 percent.

Our assumption has always been that if Obama is below 50 percent vote share and Governor Romney is within two or three points after Labor Day then Romney has a better than 50/50 chance of winning, since most undecided voters will break toward the challenger. That model is out the door if the incumbent has a six-point lead and the challenger's unfavorables are near 50 percent. Obama's 47-48 percent share of the national popular vote is nearly identical to Bush's 48 percent mark against Kerry in a Washington Post poll taken in August 2004 (at the time, Bush was in a statistical tie with Kerry). While Clinton's 1996 vote share was lower due to the dynamic of Ross Perot's Reform Party challenge, he was also in a 44 percent to 42 percent tie with Bob Dole in an August 1996 Newsweek poll. To find a reelection that wasn't in a near-tie for most of the summer, you have to go back to Reagan's comfortable 14-point lead over Mondale in an August 1984 Time poll. With current voter attitudes so sharply divided and partisanship at an all-time high, only a small percentage of the electorate is truly swing voters and most national races will be close from wire-to-wire, regardless of the candidates. Therefore, a five- or six-point statistically significant lead is meaningful and surely has registered with the Romney team.

Finally, take a look at Obama's approval rating. We have always maintained that it is relatively weak. An approval rating in the high 40s allows for reelection but not with a great deal of wiggle room. Low to mid 40s signals a vulnerable incumbent. Obama is at 48 percent right now. But what's most important is the trend, and Obama's recent trajectory shows solid improvement over the last year.

If this election had been held in the fall of 2011, Obama would have lost. But in the late summer of 2012 he is in reasonably good shape. Obama's current 48 percent approval rating is similar to several other modern presidents who were elected to a second term. According to the USA Today's historic data, in mid-August before their reelections George W. Bush (47 percent), Ronald Reagan (53 percent) and Bill Clinton (52 percent) all posted similar marks. Obama is also well ahead of the two incumbents who went on to lose: Jimmy Carter (33 percent) and George H.W. Bush (32 percent).

Having said the above, this thing is FAR from over and Romney still has several factors in his favor. First, Obama is continues to poll below 50 percent. As we learned in 2004 this does not mean defeat for the incumbent but it does suggest that the President is vulnerable.

Second, the economy and the jobs situation remain weak and can be severely impacted by events in Europe. The unemployment rate ticked back up to 8.3 percent in July. Even though jobs were added, the rate still climbed slightly because 852,000 discouraged workers left the labor force that month, a decline of 267,000 from a year earlier. We have said it before but it bears repeating: this is all about perception. If there are major job gains (200k per month) over the next two months the perception will be that things are improving. If not, then voters will view this as a stagnant (or worse) economy and Romney will benefit.

Third, the President's own favorability rating has been hurt by his negative ads. Voters now see Obama as more of a candidate than a president. The campaign team clearly made the calculation that the president had personal likability that could be leveraged (and, as we stated above, this has been put to good use) but it has had a negative impact on personal perceptions of Obama.

Lastly, his VP choice gives Romney an opportunity to offer his own direction for the country and to differentiate himself from Obama. And while Democrats will go into overdrive to paint the Ryan selection as a negative, this is an opportunity for Team Romney to present a clear differentiation between his governing philosophy and Obama's. To do that, Team Romney will need to take on the entitlement issue. This video was released moments ago and is probably the first of many on the subject.

Let's talk about the Ryan selection. Generally, people are probably reading too much into the pick. The whole idea that "the Romney campaign realized that it couldn't just run a referendum campaign and so it needed to pick someone who could articulate the philosophical 'choice' between the two candidates" is, I think, a bit of a reach. The fact is that every campaign (when there is an incumbent) is BOTH a referendum and a choice. There are both positives and negatives associated with the Ryan pick and they have been much scrutinized over the last 72 hours.

The idea that Democrats are eager to run against Ryan and that this was their dream pick is a little silly. Our sense is that this will energize the GOP base a bit, and it will also gin up some concerns among certain Democrats and seniors, making this basically a wash from a vote count standpoint.

Ryan will help a bit in the sense that he's an articulate spokesman for Republican policies, often better than Romney. He'll be effective in his debate, and he's got an optimism about him that should wear well.

On the flip side, this allows Democrats to tie Romney more closely to the Republican Congress and, in particular, Republicans in the House who, as a group, have extremely low job approval numbers.

The selection also allows Democrats to go after the GOP on Medicare, which is helpful for two reasons: first, Romney is strong with seniors and this could turn into a bit of a vulnerability with that group; second, it could help Democrats transition the debate away from jobs/the economy, which is, of course, the key to this election. The truth is that every day that Romney/Ryan aren't talking about jobs/the economy is a win for Obama. Having said that, we would be surprised if Medicare is what we are talking about in three weeks.

All of this is interesting, but ultimately the VP pick doesn't matter all that much, except in very rare circumstances. And at this point we don't see the Ryan selection as one of those instances. Prior to the announcement, most voters didn't know enough about Ryan to have an opinion of him; he's at just 44 percent favorable -- 39 percent unfavorable in his home state of Wisconsin. The risk is that Romney has painted a target on his ticket by aligning himself with a detailed plan that would dramatically reshape the federal government. Clearly, team Obama will poke holes in the Ryan plan for the next three months and accuse Romney of planning to dismantle Social Security and Medicare, among other things. It is too early to tell whether this attack will work, but we would be very surprised if this campaign ends up being about Medicare. If it is, we know what the outcome will be.

There are no new horserace polls out yet, but we wouldn't suggest anyone hold their breath for some dramatic movement in the wake of this announcement. First of all, while he is a star within the Beltway, most voters are still unfamiliar with Ryan. And data like the new Washington Post poll that shows a leap in Ryan's favorability is mostly a function of an upswing in his name ID.

Thanks to Pete Ventimiglia, Allison Quigley and John Zirinsky for their thoughts and contributions to this election monitor. Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008, but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.