PollTrack: Writing on the Wall

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Trials In Another Poll

2009-07-17T14:06:40Z

A new Monmouth University poll in New Jersey reports that GOP challenger Chirs Christie currently leads incumbent Governor Jon Corzine, 43% to 37% among registered voters. Independent Chris Daggett garners 5% of the vote and 15% of voters remain undecided. The survey continues: "Among likely voters – those who are most probable to vote on November 3rd – Christie leads Corzine by 8 points, 45% to 37%, with Daggett at 4%. While Christie has maintained an advantage in most polls this year, the race is far from over. Only 54% of likely voters say they have definitely made up their mind on which candidate they will be supporting. If voters who are only “leaning” toward a candidate are removed from the equation, Christie’s advantage shrinks to 4 points, 37% to 33%.

Another indication of the volatility of these early polls is the change in favorability rating for the two main candidates. Currently, Jon Corzine stands at 38% favorable to 46% unfavorable, with 16% who have no opinion. This indicates a drop in the governor’s favorable ratings since January, when they stood at 49% favorable to 38% unfavorable. Chris Christie has a better overall rating than his opponent, but there are some warning signs that the Republican should keep an eye on. Currently, Christie’s rating stands at 43% favorable to 24% unfavorable. While the GOP nominee’s favorable rating has remained basically steady since January, his unfavorable rating has climbed by 12 points."

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Continues To Lead

2009-07-16T13:31:48Z

A new Rasmussen survey reports that "Republican candidate Robert F. McDonnell has rebounded to take a narrow lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds in the race for governor in Virginia, highlighting the expected closeness of that contest right up to November." Among VA voters, "McDonnell leads Deeds 44% to 41%; 3% prefer some other candidate, and 12% are undecided . . . McDonnell has an 12-point lead among men. Deeds leads by five among female voters . . . 50% of Virginia voters have a favorable view of McDonnell, with 25% whose opinion is very favorable. 27% regard him unfavorably, including 7% very unfavorable. 22% don’t know enough abut McDonnell to venture an opinion of him. Deeds is seen favorably by 49%, with 19% very favorable, and unfavorably by 35%, including 11% who have a very unfavorable view of him. 17% aren’t sure what they think of the Democrat. McDonnell’s numbers are little changed from last month, but Deeds has suffered a 10-point drop in his favorables."

New Jersey: Democratic Givernor Corzine Sinks Further Behind

2009-07-15T13:23:40Z

Things continue to look bleak for incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in his 2009 reelection bid. A new Quinnipiac University poll reports that "Republican challenger Christopher Christie is pulling away from Corzine and now holds a 53% to 41% lead among likely voters in the New Jersey Governor's race . . . This compares to a 50 - 40 percent lead for the former federal prosecutor in a June 10 survey. In a three-way matchup among likely voters, Christie leads Gov. Corzine 47% to 38% percent, with 8% for independent candidate Christopher Daggett. . . . In the two-way face-off, Corzine leads 76 - 19 percent among Democratic likely voters, while Christie leads 89% to 7% among Republicans and 64% to 28% percent among independent voters. This is a jump from Christie's 56 - 32 percent lead among independent voters June 10. In a three-way race, Daggett gets 13 percent of independent voters, with 54 percent for Christie and 24 percent for Corzine."

Ohio: Democrats Have Slight Edge in Key 2010 Statewide Races

2009-07-14T13:37:27Z

According to a new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll on the 2010 election cycle in Ohio reports that if the election were held now, Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland would lead Republican John Kasich in the gubernatorial race, 44% to 39%. In the U.S. Senate race, the Democratic primary is unclear, with no real leader and the lion's share of voters undecided at this early stage: Democrat Lee Fisher leads Jennifer Brunner 22% to 17%. Significantly, both Democrats edge presumptive Republican nominee Rob Portman in a hypothetical general election match up. Fisher leads, 42% to 35%, and Brunner leads, 40% to 36%.

New Jersey: Is The National Economy Hurting Corzine In His Rellection Quest?

2009-07-13T13:57:06Z

Ohio Democratic Governor May Be In Trouble in 2010 Reelection Bid

2009-07-10T13:17:31Z

A Quinnipiac University survey suggests that incumbent Democratic Governor Ted strickland of Ohio may be in trouble with votes: "His approval rating--at 46% positive, 42% negative, is down considerably from the 57% to 29% rating he received in the organization's May 6 survey. "This is Gov. Strickland's lowest approval rating since a 45 - 12 score, with 43 percent undecided, February 1, 2007, one month after he took office. Voters give Gov. Strickland two big thumbs down, disapproving 53 - 33% of the way he is handling the economy and disapproving 53 - 32% of the way he is handling the state budget. Voters also feel 40 - 34%that Gov. Strickland has not kept his campaign promises. These are Strickland's lowest scores on these three measures. U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine, a possible Republican challenger in the 2010 Governor's race, has caught up with the struggling Strickland, with 40% to the Governor's 41%, compared to a 48 - 36% Strickland lead May 6. Another challenger, former Congressman John Kasich, trails Strickland 43 - 38 percent, compared to 51 - 32 percent May 6.

Another Poll Shows Republican Christie Ahead in 2009 NJ Gubernatorial Race

2009-07-09T13:40:06Z

Yet another poll suggests that incumbent New Jersey Democratic Governor Jon Corzine is in trouble: "Just one in five voters (21%) say New Jersey is on the right track and, according to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind™, Republican Chris Christie continues to lead the Democratic incumbent governor by a margin of 45%-39% in the race for governor. Another 15% say they are unsure. Christie, the former U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, has increased his statewide name recognition to 87%, up 25 points since April. However, his ratio of favorable to unfavorable opinion has shifted away from him even as Corzine has begun advertising. One-third of New Jersey voters (34%) say they have a favorable view of Christie versus one quarter (25%) who have an unfavorable view, up from 12% in April. Another quarter (28%) say they have not formed an opinion. . . . Among all voters, 54% say their view of Corzine is unfavorable, while 31% say their view is favorable . . . 48% of Democrats say their view of Corzine is favorable, but 37% say their view is unfavorable. In fact, only two-thirds of Democratic voters (66%) support Corzine, while one in five (20%) say they prefer Christie and 13% are undecided." Not good news for the incumbent Governor.

Republican McDonnell Leads In 2009 VA Governor's Race

2009-07-08T13:48:34Z

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds has fallen behind his Republican challenger, Bob McDonnell. The GOP candidate now holds a 49% to 43% lead in this fall's race. As PPP notes: "We're detecting little interest in the race right now from black voters or young voters, both groups that were overwhelmingly supportive of Barack Obama and key to his success in the state last year. We currently project black turnout at 16% of the electorate, down from 20% last year, and voters under 30 at 8%, down from 21% last year. Getting those groups excited about his candidacy and out to the polls will be key to Deeds' prospects."

New MN Senator Has Generally Unfavorable National Rating

2009-07-07T14:10:51Z

According to a recent Rasmusen survey, newly minted Minnesota Democratic US Senator, Al Franken, has a relatively low national approval rating: "44% of U.S. voters have an unfavorable opinion of former “Saturday Night Live” comedy . . . as he prepares to join the U.S. Senate as its newest Democratic member . . . 34% have a favorable opinion of Franken, who will be sworn in today as [the next] senator from Minnesota. 22% are not sure what they think of him." Rasmussen alsocorrectly points out that "it is fairly typical for individual legislators to have negative favorability ratings on a national basis."

New York Gov. Peterson's Approval Rating: Dismal

2009-07-02T13:52:54Z

Things seem to just get worse and worse for New York Governor David Paterson. A new Marist College Poll reports: "The news for Governor David Paterson remains grim. The governor’s approval rating is an abysmal 21%, and with the New York State Senate in disarray, nearly half of the state’s electorate says they disapprove of the way in which the governor is handling the situation while 43% approve. To make matters even worse, more than six in ten registered voters disapprove of the way Paterson is dealing with the state’s economic crisis.How bad is Governor Paterson’s political situation? The answer is pretty bad. According to The Marist Poll’s new statewide survey, about one in five registered voters in New York — 21% — report that Governor Paterson is doing either an excellent or good job in office. Voters’ view of the governor’s job performance is little changed since The Marist Poll last asked this question in May. At that time, 19% of voters gave Paterson’s job performance above average marks. And, the governor still does not receive affirmation from a major share of voters within his own party. However, he has received a slight bump among Democrats in New York State. 28% believe Governor Paterson is doing an excellent or good job in office. This compares with the 22% of Democrats he received in May."

Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine Remains Well Behind In NJ Reelection Effort

2009-07-01T13:34:38Z

A new poll suggests that New Jersey's incumbent Democratic Governor has a tough road ahead of him in this year's reelection campaign. A Public Policy Polling survey reports that Republican challenger Chris Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine by ten points: 51% to 41%: "Christie is being buoyed by a 60-26 advantage with independent voters and a remarkable degree of party unity, as he leads 93-3 with Republicans. By comparison, Corzine has just a 75-16 edge with Democrats . . . There's not much doubt Christie's lead is being fueled largely by Corzine's unpopularity. 56% of voters in the state have a negative opinion of the incumbent, while just 36% view him favorably. For Christie the breakdown is 43% positive and 33% unfavorable."

Coleman Concedes After Court Rules That Democrat Franken Won MN US Senate Race

2009-06-30T20:51:14Z

Republican Norm Coleman has conceded the 2008 US Senate race in Minnesota to Democrat Al Franken, after the state Supreme Court ruled this afternoon that Franken won. The court ruled unanimously in Franken's favor.

Ohio Democratic Governor Less Popular

2009-06-30T14:05:48Z

A Public Policy Polling survey out of Ohio indicates that incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Strickland's approval rating has declined to 43%. In a hypothetic 2010 general election match up, he leads Republican John Kasich by just two points, 44% to 42%. PPP continues: "Strickland has seen a decline in popularity among both Democrats and Republicans. Where previously 70% of voters within his party gave him good marks, now just 62% do. And the percentage of Republicans disapproving of him has increased from 59% to 72%. His numbers with independents are relatively steady."

Arelen Specter In Serious Trouble In PA

2009-06-29T14:09:40Z

Former Republican, now turned Democratic, US Senator Arlen Specter is in deep trouble in his 2010 PA reelection bid, according to a new Franklin and Marshall survey: His job approval rating has dropped from 52% to 34% over the past three months. Even more ominous for Specter is that the proportion of state residents who believe he deserves re-election has declined from 40% to 28%. His numbers are tepid even among members of his recently adopted party: 43% of Democrats say Specter deserves re-election; 39% say no. In a hypothetical primary match up with Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), Specter leads 33% to 13%. Nevertheless, and quite significantly, 48% remain undecided.

Most Vorters in South Carolinia Want Gov. Sanford To Resign

2009-06-26T13:14:21Z

Can Gov. Mark Sanford survive his extramarital affair and mysterious disappearance from the state? Can an ultra-conservative "family values" Republican--who proudly condemns gay marriage, gay adoption and even civil unions for gay couples--live down a growing consensus that he is both hypocritical and unethical (he used state funds to travel to Argentina to carry on his illicit affair)? The answer would appear to be no. Two polls suggests that Sanford is in serious trouble: SurveyUSA reports that 60% of South Carolinans believe the embattled governor should resign; 34% think he should remain in office. InsiderAdvantage finds 50% of the state's voters want him to resign; 42% said he should remain in office.

Democrat Incumbent Governor Corzine Continues To Do Poorly in New Jersey

2009-06-25T13:40:04Z

The political landscape continues to look bleak for incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in New Jersey. With the general election a little more than four months away, a new Strategic Vision poll in New Jersey finds Republican Christopher Christie leading Corzine by an impressive 12 points, 51% to 39% with 8% undecided.

Democrats Ahead In Ohio 2010 US Senate Race

2009-06-24T13:35:04Z

A new Public Policy Polling survey suggests that both potential Democratic nominees in Ohio's 2010 US Senate race would defeat their Republican rival in a hypothetical match up in the race to succeeded retiring GOP Sen. George Voinovich: Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman, 41% to 32%; Jennifer Brunner holds a similar 40% to 32% advantage over Portman. PPP continues: "Anyone trying to figure out whether Brunner or Fisher would make a stronger general election candidate or which has a leg up in the primary will not find it from this poll, as their numbers are nearly identical across the board."

NY Gov. Paterson Remains Very Unpopular

2009-06-23T12:52:46Z

According to a new Siena Institute Poll, incumbent New York Governor David Paterson remains very unpopular with voters: His approval rating is just 31%. In a hypothetical Democratic primary match up, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo crushes Paterson, 69% to 16%. In general election match ups, Rudy Giuliani would also crush Paterson, 57% to 27%, while Cuomo would beat Giuliani, 49% to 40%.

Illinois US Senate: Voters Do Not Want Burris To Run

2009-06-22T14:54:07Z

A poll out from Rasmussen reports that voters would prefer that incumbent (and embattled) Illinois US Senator Roland Burris not seek reelection in 2010. The Democrat, who was appointed to fill the seat of President Obama, is not popular: "61% of voters now say they would definitely vote against [the Senator] if he runs for a full term in 2010 . . . That result is up from 54% back in April. Burris was named to the Senate by since-impeached Governor Rod Blagojevich . . . 6% of voters would definitely vote for Burris, while 32% say their vote would depend on who runs against him."

New Poll: VA Gubernatorial Race Now A Tie

2009-06-19T13:33:46Z

A just released DailyKos/Research 2000 poll reports that Republican Bob McDonnell is now edging Democrat Creigh Deeds in the Virginia gubernatorial race--45% to 44%. Given the poll's margin of error of +/- 4 points, the race is essentially tied. The public appears to have a better of the Republican, who has a favorability rating 55% to 36%; Deeds is at 47% to 35%.