Tweet   While it ain’t over till it’s over, 2011 is over. A lot that could have happened, didn’t.  Obama didn’t resign, Donald Trump didn’t throw his hat into the ring or divorce his current wife and marry one or more Kardashians.  Newt Gingrich threw his hat into the ring, but also didn’t divorce his current wife and marry one or more  Kardashians. These are the most significant events of 2011.

This is Jon Hamilton‘s excellent explanation of this disturbing risk possibility, reported yesterday in JAMA. From Common Chemicals Could Make Kids’ Vaccines Less Effective

The more exposure children have to chemicals called perfluorinated compounds, the less likely they are to have a good immune response to vaccinations, a study just published in JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association shows.

The finding suggests, but doesn’t prove, that these chemicals can affect the immune system enough to make some children more vulnerable to infectious diseases.

For decades now, PFCs have been used in nonstick coatings, stain-resistant fabrics and some food packaging. And because they persist in the environment for years, they have become common around the globe.

“You can find them in polar bears,” says Dr. Philippe Grandjean, the study’s lead author who works at both Harvard and the University of Southern Denmark.

Studies in animals have shown that PFCs can weaken the immune system.

Grandjean wanted to know whether this was happening in children. So he led a team that studied nearly 600 kids in the Faroe Islands, which lie about halfway between Scotland and Iceland.

The Faroese have levels of PFCs similar to those of U.S. residents. Grandjean figured if the chemicals were having an effect, it would show up in the way kids’ bodies responded to vaccinations.

Normally, a vaccine causes the production of lots of antibodies to a specific germ. But Grandjean says the response to tetanus and diphtheria vaccines was much weaker in 5-year-olds whose blood contained relatively high levels of PFCs.

“We found that the higher the exposure, the less capable the kids were in terms of responding appropriately to the vaccine,” Grandjean says. The results raise the possibility that “the immune system is not really developing optimally.”

The health effects of PFCs are still poorly understood. But in the past decade, government scientists have become increasingly concerned about possible links to developmental problems in children.

If this turns out to be coincidental, without causal connection, all well and good. But if there’s something here that, on the precautionary principle, would lead us to ban or limit PFCs – it’s likely we’ll do it first in more affluent countries. This may protect some children – but if the children of entire continents are left unprotected, not only are those children at direct risk, their communities may constitute international disease paths. In a world with routine international travel and shipping, diseases don’t need green cards.

Robert Pear, who has always provided excellent coverage of public health issues for The Times, reports that the administration plans to require drug and medical equipment suppliers to report all payments – down to coffee and bagels – made to physicians and medical personnel – and make them accessible to the public via the web. We can’t imagine that there’s a plausible argument that anyone has a privacy information in this data.

What would your reaction be if your physician prescribed a particular medicine, and then found out that your doctor was taking thousands of dollars from the drug’s manufacturer? By the same token -  if you found out that your physician accepted no gifts at all from drug prescribers, might that not enhance your view of that physician’s credibility? From Robert Pear’s U.S. to Force Drug Firms to Report Money Paid to Doctors:

WASHINGTON — To head off medical conflicts of interest, the Obama administration is poised to require drug companies to disclose the payments they make to doctors for research, consulting, speaking, travel and entertainment.  Many researchers have found evidence that such payments can influence doctors’ treatment decisions and contribute to higher costs by encouraging the use of more expensive drugs and medical devices.

Consumer advocates and members of Congress say patients may benefit from the new standards, being issued by the government under the new health care law. Officials said the disclosures increased the likelihood that doctors would make decisions in the best interests of patients, without regard to the doctors’ financial interests.

Large numbers of doctors receive payments from drug and device companies every year — sometimes into the hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars — in exchange for providing advice and giving lectures. Analyses by The New York Times and others have found that about a quarter of doctors take cash payments from drug or device makers and that nearly two-thirds accept routine gifts of food, including lunch for staff members and dinner for themselves.

The Times has found that doctors who take money from drug makers often practice medicine differently from those who do not and that they are more willing to prescribe drugs in risky and unapproved ways, such as prescribing powerful antipsychotic medicines for children.

Jessica Dailey, writing at Inhabitat, notes the United States’ largest net-zero school, Lady Bird Johnson Middle School, in Texas:

Texas is known for the Alamo, spicy Tex-Mex food, big Stetson hats, and now it also has the nation’s largest net-zero public school. Welcoming its first students this past fall, the Lady Bird Johnson Middle School in Irving Texas is a 152,000 square foot facility that produces as much energy as it uses thanks to wind turbines, solar panels, and a slew of the most advanced green technologies and building techniques. Dallas-based firm Corgan Associatesled the design team, which incorporated a variety of experts to create a school that serves not only as a classroom, but also as a teacher of sustainability and energy-efficiency.

From  US’s Largest Net Zero School Welcomes Students in Irving, Texas

Apparently the building is powered by a large solar array and a smaller array of wind turbines, producing in a ratio of 99 to 1; the 152,000-plus square foot building also uses geothermal energy, employs every conservation tactic available, and still has some power to sell back to the grid.

In “The World Will Not End, and Other Predictions for 2012,”  I wrote “Apple and IBM will continue to thrive. Microsoft will grow, slightly. Dell and HP will thrash. A share of Apple, which sold for $11 in December, 2001, and $380 in Dec. 2011, will sell for $480 in Dec. 2012.”

Apple has already spiked to 427.75. If I’m proven wrong it may be because I underestimated Apple’s projected future value.

What about Research in Motion, RIMM? They invented mobile e-mail, with the first “Blackberry” in ’98 or ’99. When you got paged, you could write a response, send it, and it would be received almost immediately. It was tied to email, integrated with Microsoft Exchange or Lotus Notes. I remember it well. As a database administrator on Wall Street I carried one for two years. In my current professional role I have carried one for six and managed a Blackberry Enterprise Server, along with other servers. In the late 90′s it was basically a pager with a keyboard and software that did e-mail. Today, you can also take pictures, browse the web – gives new meaning to the word ‘crawl’-  listen to music, make phone calls.

But what will be the value of Research in Motion next year? Still around $8.5 B? Down to $6.2 B? Back up to about $30 B? If they don’t change, I imagine the value will be $4.0 to $6.0 B, or they will be a division of another company, such as AT&T, NorTel, Winstream, HP, or a private equity firm.

Here’s the basic financial data on the companies:

At first glance the company looks like a tremendous investment: RIMM is a $8.7 Billion company with no debt, earns $4.24 per share (EPS), has a Net Profit Margin of 17.13, and the stock only costs $16.17 per share (as of close of trading Friday, January 13, 2012). The ratio of stock price to earnings (P/E) is 3.81. Their network is secure and robust. A Blackberry handheld should be on the belt of every first responder. They are lighter and probably as secure, more reliable, more robust than the Motorola units carried today, and they also do instant messaging, virtually instant e-mail, and come with a built-in camera. They don’t belong in your “go-bag;” they belong on your belt.

At second glance, an analyst put the intrinsic value at $22.00 per share or $12 billion (up from $16 per share and $8.7 Billion) saying “the network is worth $12.50 per share, their patents are worth $7.50 per share, and they have $2.00 per share in the bank.

Compare this to Apple. A $390 Billion company, Apple has no debt, EPS of 27.67, NPM of 23.95, and the stock only costs 419.81 per share. The P/E is 15.17.  Apple also makes an instant communications device, but it doesn’t have it’s own network. Research in Motion does. So if the AT&T, Verizon, or other network is down you will still be able to send a “PIN to PIN,” “BBM” or E-Mail with a Blackberry, but not with an iPhone. On the other hand, there is an iPhone app that turns the camera flash into a flashlight.

These are summarized in Table 1, “Basic Data,” above and Table 2 “Other Financial Information,” below. (Note: all data are from Google).

The data also show that Apple, with a price of $419.81 is close to it’s historic 52-week high of $427.75, while, at $16.17 RIMM is close to it’s historic 52-week low of $12.45. Looking at the chart from last year, Apple was steady from January to July (and you could have lost money by investing in it at $360 in January and selling at $310 in July) but increased after July. Research in Motion, on the other hand, dropped pretty steadily from February 17, 2011 to December 20, 2011.

What’s next for APPLE and Research in Motion? What was it that Newton said? “A body in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by an outside force.” I have a lot of confidence in Apple. It’s in motion. Rumors about the iPad 3 are that it will be lighter, faster, and have better graphics. They will make improvements on the iPads, iPhones, iPods, iMacs, Mac Books, iOS, OS X, the applications software, and who knows, they may even get Apple TV right this year. (They will, sooner or later.)  As far as Research In Motion; some of their products – the Blackberry hand-helds and Blackberry Enterprise Server software are terrific. However, I would have a lot more confidence in the company’s future if I was an “Outside force” hired to act upon the body. (I would also kill to work at APPLE.)

Posted in its entirety from Jason Kottke’s blog. We did not know about this system, but think it’s worth considering for a number of reasons: it gets people walking in inclement weather rather than taking their vehicles or not travelling at all; probably stops the weather from entirely shutting down Minneapolis, and, to the extent it’s reducing vehicle and pedestrian traffic, likely reducing accidents, property damage, death and injury. An example of excellent urban transportation planning.

A brief history of the Minneapolis skyways

If you’ve ever been to downtown Minneapolis, you’ve likely used the large network of above-grade covered walkways that now stretches into nearly every corner of the downtown area. I’d always assumed they were built to help downtown workers and residents avoid cold weather during the winter, but that’s not the case.

Rather, the skyway system originally emerged from a twofold desire. First, planners in the 1940s and 50s were very concerned about managing increasingly dense pedestrian flows, and viewed skyways as a way to maximize the use of urban space for both people and automobiles (Byers 1998 154). Second, business owners were interested in maximizing their property values, and saw the skyways an opportunity to double the amount of valuable retail space in their downtown buildings (Byers 1998 159).

I used to work in downtown Minneapolis, and the skyways were great in the winter. To be able to take a walk and get lunch without having to bundle up in coat, hat, mittens, scarf, etc. was almost like living in a warm climate…and that’s no small thing during a long, dark Mpls winter. (via ?than)

via kottke.org – home of fine hypertext products.

We’re aware of the Chicago system of underground streets, the abandoned postal tube systems in the United States and others  (See, e.g. Multilevel streets in Chicago – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia). To the extent we’ve failed to exploit these opportunities, or used and abandoned them, they constitute wasted assets. See also Minneapolis Skyway System (Wikipedia entry); Leif Petterson’s Take the Skyway on Vita.MN (The Twin Cities Going-Out Guide).

Does Freedom of Speech imply the responsibility to speak honestly – even when what is not what people want to hear?  John Ehrenfeld, on his blog, in discussing the US Presidential Campaign, noted (here),

“[M]y concerns and consternation at the virtually complete absence of truth from [a GOP debate in New hampshire]. Not only was the truth gone, but the participants appeared almost gleeful about speaking freed from the constraints that truth-telling creates…. I recall an interview with Eric Fehrnstrom, Mitt Romney’s campaign manager, who said, in response to a question about the untruths being uttered by Romney, that this was none of his concern; it was up to the media to provide the facts.”

I addressed this in a wry manner with “Ridin’ the Magic Carpet” on XB Cold Fingers.

Richard Seireeni, on the Chelsea Green site (here), suggests that our biggest challenges, perhaps threats, come from outsoucing manufacturing of American branded consumer goods to China.

And in the New York Times, Paul Krugman explains how America is not a corporation (here).

For one thing, there’s no simple bottom line. For another, the economy is vastly more complex than even the largest private company.

Most relevant…, however, is … giant corporations sell the great bulk of what they produce to other people, not to their own employees — whereas even small countries sell most of what they produce to themselves, and big countries like America are overwhelmingly their own main customers.

Yes, there’s a global economy. But six out of seven American workers are employed in service industries, which are largely insulated from international competition, and even our manufacturers sell much of their production to the domestic market.

And the fact that we mostly sell to ourselves makes an enormous difference when you think about policy.

Consider what happens when a business engages in ruthless cost-cutting. From the point of view of the firm’s owners (though not its workers), the more costs that are cut, the better. Any dollars taken off the cost side of the balance sheet are added to the bottom line.

But the story is very different when a government slashes spending in the face of a depressed economy. Look at Greece, Spain, and Ireland, all of which have adopted harsh austerity policies. In each case, unemployment soared, because cuts in government spending mainly hit domestic producers. And, in each case, the reduction in budget deficits was much less than expected, because tax receipts fell as output and employment collapsed.

Ehrenfeld, observing the irony in a GOP Debate on the day of Vaclav Havel’s death, wrote about truth;

Havel’s signature accomplishment [was] pointing out that people have to live in truth or lose their freedom…

Truth, as Havel says, is essential to our existence as a free people at all times, but perhaps even more now as we become ever more aware of the complexity of the world we live in. Ideologies are the epitome of denial of the interconnectedness of this world, where ties grow more in number and strength everyday. Actions here have effect in places and times we do not expect or ignore. Are we really going to bomb away the so-called threat of Iranian nuclear weapons with no other consequences? Will freeing the market from all government oversight and restraints create wealth for everybody when the results of the last few decades show us the exact opposite? Ideologies, either from the left or right, are all dangerous, but our two-party system and the means their leaders communicate with us pushes themes into ideological positions frequently compressed into tiny sound bites or political ads….

There are many, many truths out there that are getting clobbered. If any of these men (no women left) are elected, they will be expected to act in accordance to these statements, ignoring what they find. Obama was faced with a financial crisis and its fallout on the economy as he moved in. He certainly was not the creator of these problems. It is interesting and ironic that the name Bush, on whose watch these problems started to arise, has been barely mentioned during this campaign, and not at all during these recent “debates.” I continue to put quotes around this word as real debates require some depth in discussing issues and solutions. Truthfulness would require putting the current messes into context, a least attempting to do so. I admit that would be difficult because the big messes are all a result of our failures to recognize complexity and act accordingly.

Richard Seireeni on the Chelsea Green site (here) wrote:

In the run up to the Republican Convention, we’ve heard everything and nothing. We’ve heard Newt, Mitt and Ron go on about issues that have little if any impact on jobs and national security, but not a single word about the real reason we have massive and permanent unemployment….In 2010, we imported 364 billion dollars in goods from China while we exported only 91 billion to them. That is nearly a 4 to 1 trade imbalance….

The Chinese people have become admirable competitors, but their hybrid Totalitarian-Capitalist government is not our friend. They don’t share our philosophies on human rights, labor rights, or geo-political issues, like containment of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. In fact, China is a major importer of Iranian oil, in opposition to U.S.-sponsored trade restrictions, and has probably received access to our recently downed drone aircraft as a reward.

While GOP candidates are preoccupied with Terrorism and Obamacare, the People’s Liberation Army has been quietly developing a new advanced stealth fighter, Predator-style drones, the first in a planned fleet of blue water aircraft carriers, an advanced rocket and space program, and a growing nuclear arsenal. Those cheap consumer products have turned China into a super power one purchase at a time. Every time an American patriot buys a Made-in-China product at Walmart, he or she is investing in China’s military expansion, which forces us to invest more in our military to counter the threat.

Lawrence J. Furman, MBA, co-founder of Popular Logistics, has been appointed to the Manalapan Township Finance Committee (Township here,  news article here). The Finance Committee reviews  expenditures, projects tax receipts, and submits the budget to the Township Committee. Back in 2007 Furman suggested that the Township Committee look into deploying solar energy systems on municipal properties. He was appointed to the Manalapan Township Environmental Commission in 2007, served for two years. In 2008, he ran for School Board with a platform built around solar energy for the schools.  While he lost the election, and Manalapan does not yet have solar energy systems on municipal properties or schools (are these related?) people are talking about it. He earned his MBA in Managing for Sustainability from Marlboro College in December, 2010.

He has delivered various iterations of a talk entitled “Beyond Fuel: Energy in the 21st Century,”  at the June meeting of the NYC Business Sustainability Action Round-Table, NYC B Smart, and in September, 2011 at the Space Coast Green Living Festival, Cocoa Beach, Florida.

Furman has been thinking about energy and what we now call sustainability since 1976, when, as a student intern with the New York Public Interest Research Group, Inc., NYPIRG, at Rachel Carson College, then at the State University of New York University of Buffalo, he helped develop a case for offshore wind power. His testimony, delivered to the “NY State Legislative Committee on Energy, the Economy, and the Environment” stated:

We could power the New York City Subway System with a battery of wind driven electric turbines, located off the shores of Long Island. It would burn no fuel, and, therefore, unlike coal, oil, gas, and nuclear power, create no waste.

When you factor in the life cycle of the fuel, and the pollution and health costs of the wastes, this would be less expensive than the fuel based alternatives.

Reflecting on this today, he said,

“My colleagues and I knew what we were talking about, but the Committee members didn’t get it. Sadly, it seems that the Committee’s name – Energy, the Economy, and the Environment – indicated it’s priorities.”

“If the cheapest unit of energy, the ‘negawatt,’ is the unit of energy that you don’t need, then the next cheapest is the ‘nega-fuel-watt,’ the unit of enegy you obtain without consuming fuel.”

On this committee I intend to look at our energy expenses and see where we can save money in the long term with PV Solar, LED lighting, insulation, micro-hydro, etc.

We’re not sure if this is part of Chicago’s underground street system, now unused, which was used to expedite deliveries and at the same time to reduce traffic congestion on Chicago’s street-level. We believe that underground systems – including pneumatic tube systems – have in some places been prematurely abandoned. They reduce congestion (waiting time and reduced speeds are responsible for a large share of the pollution generated by vehicles), speed delivery, and reduce costs for everyone. Here’s an early photograph of rail-based mail processing in Chicago.

“Think Global, Act Local,” – Anonymous.

“Re-localization is a critical step in moving toward sustainability. The “global economy” is one of the culprits of our present mess,” – John Ehrenfeld.

“Sustainability is the possibility that human and other life will flourish on the planet forever,” – John Ehrenfeld.

Ehrenfeld, author of “Sustainability by Design,” here,   lectures at Marlboro College in its MBA in Managing for Sustainability.

In “Italy’s accordion Industry: Tiny and Thriving“, NPR’s Morning Edition, on 1/9/12, discussed globalization in the context of the accordion industry in Italy. The piece began: “More than 70% of Italy’s gross domestic product comes from small businesses – and they’re not growing. Economists are worried that this will make it impossible for Italy to climb out of it’s massive $2.6 Trillion debt.”It concluded “But until more small companies [coalesce into giants like Prada] things in … Italy will stay out of tune with the global eonomy.”

But the piece also reported that the Italian accordion makers focus on quality. They don’t make many instruments – make about 20% of what they made in their heyday, one company makes 180 to 200 per month, but they make the Ferraris of the accordion world.  More accordions are made today are by China, Inc., but those are cheap, low quality things.  The Italian instruments sell for up to $50,000 each, to professional musicians such as Bjork  and “The Decemberists.”

The story also asks about the long term consequences of 70% of a nation’s GDP coming from small businesses?

But it doesn’t ask:

• What is the standard of living and quality of life for craftspeople in Italy? Are people happy? Fulfilled?
• What is the wage and income differential between the workers and the owners? Between the manufacturers and the suppliers?
• How interconnected are the local economies? Are they using locally sourced materials? Is the economy local?  How much of the economy is local?
• Aside from Italy’s debt, is their economy sustainable? Another way of asking this is “Could Italy service the debt with a 30 or 50 year payment schedule, with interest set at 2.5% or 3.5%? According to the CIA Factbook, (here) Italy has a population of about 61 million people. While NPR puts the Italian debt at $2.6 Trillion, according to CNN Money, (here) Italy’s debt is about $262 Billion. That’s a per capita debt load of about $4300, according to CNN Money, and $41,995. $4,300 doesn’t seem too bad. Even $42,000 isn’t too bad, over a person’s lifetime. In the United States, $43,000 buys one or two years of college at the undergraduate level.

As noted, the piece ended with “But until more small companies [coalesce into giants like Prada] things in … Italy will stay out of tune with the global eonomy.”  This leads me to my final unanswered questions:

Is it a bad thing for Italy to be out of tune with the global economy? and

Is Italy really out of tune with the global economy?

The first two things that come to my mind when I think of “The Global Economy” are China, Inc. / WalMart, and oil. (I see China, Inc. and WalMart as one thing, but that’s another story). I see environmental degredation, poverty of mind, body, and spirit, and working conditions that equate to slavery.Personally, I’d rather be making accordions for a living wage in Italy, where I have a chance to open my own shop, than in China where conditions are equivalent to slavery.

Bjork, a singer from Reykjavík, Iceland, and the Decemberists, from Portland, Oregon, are buying Italian accordions. They would rather spend $50,000 on accordions from Italy than $399 on accordions from China.  This suggests that the Italian accordion makers are, in fact, in the global economy, albeit on a different scale of that of the Chinese and one that economists don’t understand.

This brings me to the olive trees pictured above. Olive trees take a long time to mature – 35 to 150 years. But they live, thrive, and produce olives – for a very long time - hundreds of years, thousands of years with luck and proper cultivation. (Achaia Olive Groves).

And just as I would rather be making accordions that sell for $50,000 than those that sell for $399, I would rather sell 200 units for $50,000 each than 25,063 units for $399.