Portland Housing Blog

Portland RMLS Market Action Report – October 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Clint8200) — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 07:10:00 +0000

The Regional Multiple Listing Service released the Market Action Report this week and the median sale price for October 2011 was $217,800; this is a 6.7% decrease from the median sale price for October 2010.

The Portland residential real estate market peaked in August 2007 with a median sale price of $302,000. Prices have now fallen 28% from that peak.

Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) sits at 6.8 months compared to the 10.7 months of supply for the same month last year. A balanced market has about 7 months of supply.

The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.

The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply. There are currently 10,023 homes for sale; this is a decrease of 27.5% from the same month the year before.

The third chart shows closed sales by month. There were 1,474 closed sales during the month; an increase of 14.1% from the same month the year before.

The fourth chart shows new listings by month. There were 2,433 new listings during the month; a decrease of 22% from the same month the year before.

The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. Prices would have to fall 3.5% from the current median for the ratio to reach 3.0.

Double Dip?

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 03:24:00 +0000

Don't take the Portland Housing Blog's word for it, just read the news:

"The rate at which mortgage holders were late with their payments by 60 days or more rose in the June-to-September period for the first time since the last three months of 2009, according to TransUnion.

The increase surprised TransUnion researchers, who had expected late payments, or delinquencies, to fall for the quarter. "It's much different than we've been talking about the last few quarters," said Tim Martin, group vice president of U.S. Housing in TransUnion's financial services business unit.

The problems were widespread. Between the second and third quarters, all but 10 states and the District of Columbia saw delinquency rates increase.

Another possibility for the bump in the delinquency rate is that a new crop of adjustable mortgages written toward the end of the housing bubble is resetting. Even if their interest rates remain low after the adjustment, payments might have increased, said Darren Blomquist, a Realtytrac spokesman. "We still have the bad loans mixed in that are resetting." "

Source: USA TODAY

Meanwhile closer to home right here in Stumptown, one of your neighbors on either side of your house is still underwater mathematically - and that's if you're the lucky 2 out of 3 loan owners:

1/3 of PDX Homes Underwater - Source: The Oregonian

Still not convinced that the "bottom" is yet to come? If you would like some technical data as to why a double dip is baked into the cake, please re-read the post below, and pay special attention to the graph at the bottom. It's a hard rain that's gonna fall this winter on the Portland housing market.

STILL convinced that it's 'different' here in the great Pacific Northwest? You were blatantly and clearly warned in mid August by The News Tribune out of Tacoma that we're now solidly in the middle innings of the housing bubble game for the Portland/Seattle part of the world.

Early Innings of the Game = Bad Loans and High Prices

Middle Innings of the Game = Delinquent Payments and Declining Prices

Late Innings of the Game = Default/Auction/Free Market Prices
(the bottom)

The global banking industry/cartel is desperately trying to deny the inevitable math so as to pull off a soft landing and maintain usury/debt based currency control. Look at the European Union! Sorry Charlie. This bubble popping was born to be heard around the world...there's a major shift afoot.

However, the bubble blogger beleaguered should be wary that the late innings of the game may take longer to play out than many anticipate...

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Get Ready for the Double Dip Portland

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 02:48:00 +0000

"Compared with July 2010, home prices in Portland have dropped 8.4 percent. That's the third-deepest decline of the 20 cities surveyed in the index."

Source: The Oregonian

So where do we go from here (as if the trend in the graph above wasn't enough)?

The fact that foreclosures were held at bay for much of 2010/2011, and the timing of payment shocks per the chart below will both have severe effects on Portland's housing market going forward. At Portland's peak in 2006/2007 roughly 1/3 of originated loans were either Alt-A or Option-ARM financed. The common sales pitch for such high commission loans at the time from the average McRealtor / McBroker went something like this "You can always refinance to a low fixed rate when you have more equity".

Whoops.

2012 through 2013 will give stumptown a strong taste of what the bottom feels like. It will take at least that long if not longer to clear the delinquent inventory of homes and find firm price footing. Portland spent most of the last 12 months declining ~10% annually. That trend will continue for the immediate future.

Debts which cannot be paid monthly - will never be repaid in full. It's really that simple. The house will end up foreclosed upon and sold to the free market sooner or later. The banks/politicians will drag their heels and kick the can to avoid reality, but the simple cash flow math does not lie. Home prices in Portland will continue to decline for at least another year, if not several years.

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End Of Summer 2011 - Oregon's Graphic Reality

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 05:29:00 +0000

Pacific NW Mortgage Delinquincies Still Climbing

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 04:08:00 +0000

From the Tacoma News Tribune:

"The Seattle area and Portland, Ore., are among only 12 of the 100 largest U.S. metros where so-called serious delinquency grew from March 2010 to March 2011. Seattle; Bremerton, and Eugene, Ore., are also in the top 25 metros by growth in serious delinquency, according to the news release."

Interest Rates: A Major Turning Point?

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Sat, 06 Aug 2011 04:06:00 +0000

Everyone who follows housing knows that prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship. As interest rates fall, prices rise, and vice versa. Now the meltdown shifts gears and will pick up speed as the global bankster cartel has just gotten started squeezing the masses:

S&P Downgrades the United States of America!!!

The Source

The Commentary

The money printers say "no problem, nothing to see here, move along"

The man in charge of the United States Treasury

Hang on to your hats, shit's about to get real. Between Japan, the EU, and soon the US - the chickens are coming home to roost. The banksters want their money/assets...and they'll get them. One way or the other via inflation or deflation - they will not be denied their riches begotten from the privilege to print our currency and control our economy.

History repeats...

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I Am Linda Green

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 01:59:00 +0000

It's the same old same old from CONgress and our criminal justice system...robosigning legal documents is still a daily bankster practice. Sad, but true. Our legal system is no match for the too big to fail banks.

What in the hell does Eric Holder do all damn day?!?!?!?

Sources: Reuters, AP/Chicago Tribune

Commentary: 4closureFRAUD, Statesman, ZeroHedge, Firedoglake, Naked Capitalism, Lynn Szymoniak

(image courtesy of WilliamBanzai7)

Who Will Pay For the Bubble?

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 04:11:00 +0000

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We Are Now A Broken Record: Home Prices Still Trending ~10% Lower Year Over Year in Oregon

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 05:02:00 +0000

Same old same old...from Core Logic's HPI:

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Portland's Spring Selling Season In 1000 Words

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 01:43:00 +0000

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Robert Shiller Tells the Truth

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 04:09:00 +0000

" "My gut feeling is we might see a continuation of the decline" in home prices, Shiller said earlier on Thursday at a Standard & Poor's housing summit. He added that a 10 percent to 25 percent slump in real home prices "wouldn't surprise me at all"

As for when home prices might bottom, Shiller told Insider that was unclear and it was possible prices could slide for 20 years. "We've seen five years of decline already since the peak in 2006 and I don't see evidence that we're coming out of it," he said.

Shiller, known for warning about bubbles in the stock market and housing market, is also the co-founder of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. Last week the index showed single-family home prices in March slumped to lows not seen since March 2003, falling below the previous crisis-era bottom set in April 2009."

Source: Reuters

Commentary: ZeroHedge

Lessons Learned:

“It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their selfish purposes. Distinctions in society will always exist under every just government. Equality of talents, of education, or of wealth can not be produced by human institutions.

In the full enjoyment of the gifts of Heaven and the fruits of superior industry, economy, and virtue, every man is equally entitled to protection by law; but when the laws undertake to add to these natural and just advantages artificial distinctions, to grant titles, gratuities, and exclusive privileges, to make the rich richer and the potent more powerful, the humble members of society-the farmers, mechanics, and laborers-who have neither the time nor the means of securing like favors to themselves, have a right to complain of the injustice of their Government.

There are no necessary evils in government. Its evils exist only in its abuses. If it would confine itself to equal protection, and, as Heaven does its rains, shower its favors alike on the high and the low, the rich and the poor, it would be an unqualified blessing. In the act before me there seems to be a wide and unnecessary departure from these just principles.

Experience should teach us wisdom. Most of the difficulties our Government now encounters and most of the dangers which impend over our Union have sprung from an abandonment of the legitimate objects of Government by our national legislation, and the adoption of such principles as are embodied in this act.

Many of our rich men have not been content with equal protection and equal benefits, but have besought us to make them richer by act of Congress. By attempting to gratify their desires we have in the results of our legislation arrayed section against section, interest against interest, and man against man, in a fearful commotion which threatens to shake the foundations of our Union.

It is time to pause in our career to review our principles, and if possible revive that devoted patriotism and spirit of compromise which distinguished the sages of the Revolution and the fathers of our Union. If we can not at once, in justice to interests vested under improvident legislation, make our Government what it ought to be, we can at least take a stand against all new grants of monopolies and exclusive privileges, against any prostitution of our Government to the advancement of the few at the expense of the many, and in favor of compromise and gradual reform in our code of laws and system of political economy.”

-President Andrew Jackson’s Veto Regarding the 2nd Central Bank of the United States; July 10, 1832.

(The Federal Reserve is the "new" privately owned central bank to control our "money")

Core Logic: Oregon RE Prices Decline 9.4% YOY

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Thu, 02 Jun 2011 04:23:00 +0000

From Core Logic's April HPI:

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Oregon Alert: MERS/Banks vs. Private Property Rights

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 03:33:00 +0000

And now we find the great Northwest smack dab in the middle of the battle over private property rights. Oregon has landed front and center in the lap of every voter who is, or hopes to ever be a "home owner". Does the 10th Amendment to the US Constitution matter anymore?

"A bid by major financial institutions to retroactively waive Oregon recording requirements blocking foreclosure sales appears in jeopardy but will get at least one more day, a legislative leader says.

"They did an end-run around a centuries-old land recording system guaranteeing that we know who owns the underlying IOU on our property," said Angela Martin, executive director of Economic Fairness Oregon. "They did an end-around around that and now it's backfiring and they want a do over." "

Hello Portland, Oregon! Does it matter to you that chain of custody/deed/title is controlled and judiciated LOCALLY, or do you prefer ex post facto laws from WALL ST. determining just "who" owns "what" real estate in soggy bottomed Oregon?

Those who fail to pay the monthly nut will lose the house, and so should all the skimming banksters who lent the money fraudulently in the first place. I have two words for both losers: Glass Steagall.

Securitization of assets failed 80 years ago. Shocker. Then we decided that it was just fine to start up the ponzi again in 1999 (sigh) . . .

Full details courtesy of ZeroHedge.com. Contact info for the legislative committee is at the bottom of the article. If you care - then act now.

Special thanks to The Oregonian for having the balls to actually publish something somewhat independent, and beyond status quo pablum.

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Oregon Mortgage Delinquencies

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Mon, 23 May 2011 00:51:00 +0000

From Calculated Risk:

Bottom line is that ~ 1 out of 10 mortgages here are still struggling.

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Core Logic: Oregon RE Prices Decline 9.2% YOY

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Sun, 15 May 2011 00:28:00 +0000

From Core Logic's March HPI:

Spring 2011 Guide Before You Buy Or Sell

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Sat, 07 May 2011 05:24:00 +0000

Courtesy of Michael David White:

30 Charts To See Before You Buy -OR- Sell Your Home

Buying the Farm

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Wed, 04 May 2011 05:22:00 +0000

MontyB503 is going to be taking a break for much of the summer from posting. This is not a permanent farewell from posting here, but certainly a summer pause. Why?

1.) Newborn son at home

2.) Buying a farm property

3.) Moving three lives to acreage outside of Portland

4.) Three months to move (Jul-Sept) until it starts raining again

Why now? Why not wait for "the" bottom? Personally I think "the" bottom in residential real estate is still 2-3 years away. Farmland? It's yet another discussion all together. However we all have our own decisions to make. Sometimes one has to stop cutting bait and start fishing.

Personally, all I can say is that it's time. I'm purchasing at 2.7X my annual income, and borrowing at 2.0X my annual income (25% down with 3 years of payments socked away in savings). The very best part is that there is no bank involved in the transaction. The deed/title has been in the seller's family for decades and is owned free and clear. MERS has never touched it and it was never securitized.

I did a land contract instead of a bank loan. The seller gave me an interest rate well below what I could get from a bank (yet well above what they could earn in a savings account), and in return they got a nominal purchase price above what the market would have been willing to pay if there was a middleman (bank) involved securitizing the loan at a much higher interest rate.

Disintermediation.

If and when you purchase, do the math on the total cost of the acquisition (interest included). Lastly and most importantly: pay no mind to what central bankers SAY, just watch and learn what they DO.

I hope you all have a wonderful and sunny summer!

Squatters in PORTLAND?!?!?!?

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 16:17:00 +0000

Oh dear, perhaps the housing bubble is NOT going to be all that different here in Portland. Take a look at this SE Lents Neighborhood Squatter Story. And of course our local activist friends are popping up around town and encouraging folks to "reclaim" vacant houses in Portland. Wait? There are vacant foreclosures here? "Close in" Portland?!? Oh my...

"Look for things like Tall grass, overflowing mailbox, newspapers piling up are signs of abandonment. It is recommended that potential tenants look for bank owned properties. It will be easier when you are making your arguments for defense, and with the overflowing amount of foreclosures the banks have many vacant homes throughout Portland."

Now on a more serious note, remember the MERS / LPS mess, where deeds/titles/notes were never properly recorded at the county level? Where millions of documents were forged? Remember how all 50 states attorneys general were forming a modern day posse to go after MERS as well as to get some justice from those damn TBTFail Banksters?

Well it's amazing just how cheaply a state attorney general can be bought and paid for these days. Sad. Truly sad that our local property rights are sold down the river for a song. And still no bank executives go to jail.

"The numbers are laughable. In 2006, out -of-state donors gave Miller’s campaign $10,508. For the 2010 cycle, that number was $497,357. Three lawyers by themselves – Al Gore’s attorney David Boies, plus Donald Flexner and Robert Silver, all partners in the firm Boies, Schiller and Flexner – gave Miller a total of $60,000."

Someday, this bubble is gonna bottom......................

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Demographia 7th Annual Survey: Portland "Seriously Unaffordable" When Compared To Rest of World

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 17:19:00 +0000

The 7th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey shows some sobering data for the Portland housing market when compared to 88 other major cities in Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the UK, US, and China.

"Among these major metropolitan markets, there were 20 affordable major markets, 25 moderately unaffordable major markets, 13 seriously unaffordable major markets and 24 severely unaffordable major markets.

All of the affordable major markets were in the United States while three of the moderately unaffordable markets were in Canada, with the other 22 being in the United States. The seriously unaffordable markets were concentrated in the United Kingdom and the United States."

Read all 52 pages from Demographia.

Core Logic: Four Months In A Row - Oregon Real Estate Prices Still Declining @ ~10% Year over Year

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 21:49:00 +0000

Sparing much additional commentary, let's just do a simple quarterly review of Oregon real estate prices when measured year over year:

November 2010 data

December 2010 data

January 2011 data

And now of course, we have February 2011 data from Core Logic:

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Opt-ARM Foreclosure Rate Now Exceeds Subprime, Average Time To Foreclose Takes A Record 537 Days, $50 Billion Per Year Free Money for Squatters

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 23:14:00 +0000

The housing bubble saga continues, and the banks continue their extend and pretend / kick the can down the road strategy. Lender Processing Services announced last week that the average delinquency period has reached a record 537 days, and 30% of delinquent loans have not made a payment in over 2 years. Banks are happy to avoid foreclosure for two significant reasons:

1.) When banks foreclose and return the house to the free market, they must realize a loss. As long as the mortgage is kept in limbo, they can continue to mark the asset to model (as opposed to marking it to market), lie about their solvency, and pay themselves handsome bankster bonuses.

2.) The legal mess with MERS has clearly turned into much more than a "paperwork" issue. Millions of deeds/titles were never recorded legally at the county level when the mortgage was sold, and re-sold, and re-re-sold in the ponzi scheme of mortgage backed securities.

Also in the LPS release, it is now abundantly clear that the Alt-A / Option-ARM time bomb will usher in the second major leg down in housing prices over the next few years:

"February’s data also showed a 23 percent increase in Option ARM foreclosures over the last six months, far more than any other product type. In terms of absolute numbers, Option ARM foreclosures stand at 18.8 percent, a higher level than Subprime foreclosures ever reached.

In addition, deterioration continues in the Non-Agency Prime segment. Both Jumbo and Conforming Non-Agency Prime loans showed increases in foreclosures and were the only product areas with increases in delinquencies."

Oregon and Portland has a healthy dose of Alt-A/Opt-ARM loans that were originated near the peak of our bubble in 2006 and 2007. The majority of these loans have a five year reset/recast schedule. This sets the stage for a major wave of defaults in 2011-2012, and the inevitable price declines from 2012-2014 (foreclosure and auction sales will continue to stretch out beyond 537 days from the initial default).

Lastly, a letter from JP Morgan's Michael Feroli on squatters in foreclosure and the annual size of their average 537 day personal bailout via living mortgage/rent free:

"first he debunks all myths that "rental income" is surging, as was reported in glaring headlines in a variety of propaganda media outlets following Monday's personal income report was released. This is patently false. As Feroli explains: "This rise has little to do with landlords getting more from their tenants. In fact, it has very little to do with what speakers of the English language would normally consider "rent."

Instead, it mostly reflects mortgage payments of the household sector coming down, in part because of the aggregate decline in household mortgage debt due to net cancellation of mortgages associated with foreclosures."

In other words, surging rental income is nothing more than "squatter's rent" saved by not paying one's mortgage. As to quantifying this amount - per Ferroli until recently it was $60 billion a year! This is a stunning 0.5% of GDP. Luckily there is good news: this unethical and artificial "boost" to the economy is finally declining... and is now only $50 billion on an annualized basis."

Eugene RMLS Market Action Report – February 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Clint8200) — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 15:00:00 +0000

The Regional Multiple Listing Service released the February Market Action Report and the median sale price for February 2011 was $159,100 this is a 16% decrease from the median sale price for February 2010.

The Eugene residential real estate market peaked in June 2007 with a median sale price of $243,300. Prices have now fallen 35% from that peak.

Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) is at 11.9 months compared to the 10.9 months of supply for the same month last year. A balanced market has about 7 months of supply.

The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.

The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply. There are currently 1,915 homes for sale; this is a decrease of 2% from the same month the year before.

The third chart shows closed sales by month. There were 161 closed sales during the month; a decrease of 10% from the same month the year before.

The fourth chart shows new listings by month. There were 407 new listings during the month; a decrease of 27% from the same month the year before.

The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. The median priced home is affordable in Eugene.

Vancouver RMLS Market Action Report – February 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Clint8200) — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 15:00:00 +0000

The Regional Multiple Listing Service released the Market Action Report this week and the median sale price for February 2011 was $190,000 this is an 8% decrease from the median sale price for February 2010.

The Vancouver residential real estate market peaked in July 2007 with a median sale price of $269,900. Prices have now fallen 30% from that peak.

Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) sits at 12.1 months compared to the 11.5 months of supply for the same month last year. A balanced market has about 7 months of supply.

The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.

The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply. There are currently 3,315 homes for sale; this is a decrease of 6% from the same month the year before.

The third chart shows closed sales by month. There were 274 closed sales during the month; a decrease of 10% from the same month the year before.

The fourth chart shows new listings by month. There were 705 new listings during the month; a decrease of 16% from the same month the year before.

The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. The median priced home is affordable in Vancouver.

Portland RMLS Market Action Report – February 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Clint8200) — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 15:00:00 +0000

The Regional Multiple Listing Service released the Market Action Report this week and the median sale price for February 2011 was $213,700; this is a 9% decrease from the median sale price for February 2010.

The Portland residential real estate market peaked in August 2007 with a median sale price of $302,000. Prices have now fallen 29% from that peak.

Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) sits at 10.9 months compared to the 12.9 months of supply for the same month last year. A balanced market has about 7 months of supply.

The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.

The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply. There are currently 11,706 homes for sale; this is a decrease of 10% from the same month the year before.

The third chart shows closed sales by month. There were 1,074 closed sales during the month; an increase of 6% from the same month the year before.

The fourth chart shows new listings by month. There were 2,883 new listings during the month; a decrease of 26% from the same month the year before.

The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. Prices would have to fall 2% from the current median for the ratio to reach 3.0.

A Den of Vipers and Thieves

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 04:21:00 +0000

From Credit Union Times:

"David Stevens, the director of Federal Housing Administration, was named the president/CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association today.

Stevens, who formerly held top positions at Freddie Mac and Wells Fargo, is joining the trade association at a time when the Obama administration and Congress are looking at making major changes in the housing finance system.

He has been involved in a range of policy issues, including efforts by state and federal officials to reach a settlement with the largest mortgage servicers.

Stevens, who joined the Obama administration in 2009, won’t be able to directly lobby his former colleagues for at least two years. Also, until he leaves the FHA at the end of the month, he is recusing himself from any issues that could affect the Mortgage Bankers Association."

Meanwhile...back at the reality ranch:

The Associated Press/Canadian Press tells us that (excluding food and energy) "inflation was tame". Nevermind the fact that food prices haven't spiked this rapidly in 36 long years. Got food? Fuel? CPI adjusted wages?

Good luck.