Portland Housing Blog

Captian Ben's QE3: Record Low Mortgage Rates

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Sat, 29 Sep 2012 01:05:00 +0000

Since Fed Chairman Bernanke has announced QE3, the spread between mortgage backed securities (MBS), and benchmark 10yr US Treasuries has all but been eliminated; which has pushed conforming mortgage rates to even lower record lows.

We now have the 30yr fixed at 3.40%, and 15yr fixed at 2.73%. Keep in mind, that QE3's $40 billion in purchases of MBS per month has just gotten underway, and there is no limit to the program in time or quantity. QE3 will continue until 'the economy improves'.

How low will mortgage rates go before they 'bottom'?
What effect will this have on housing prices short term, and long term?
When will Bernanke run out of 'gas' to keep manipulating the yield curve on US Treasuries and pump up mortgage backed securities, so as to keep interest rates low and asset/housing prices high?

(satirical graphics courtesy of WilliamBanzia7)

Oregon Supreme Court Limbo

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Wed, 12 Sep 2012 04:56:00 +0000

How low can we go?

Despite over 80% of bank owned inventory in the Portland area sitting on the sidelines, and despite our neighbors to the North deciding that MERS was a bankster sham...the verdict for Oregon property title/deed/chain of custody rights hangs in the balance of a still pending supreme court decision.

You can bet your sweet bippy that there is plenty of arm twisting going on from blue jean/cowboy boot wearing Kitzhaber on down through the legislature to make things go 'smoothly' for the big banks back East. Kroger (who sold out to the mortgage fraud settlement) is gone as attorney general, but it remains to be seen if Ellen Rosenblum will play ball with the big banks, or uphold the rule of law locally.

What would happen to home prices in the area if all of the shadow inventory were unleashed on the 'free' market? Would savers be rewarded and debtors be punished? Sounds too much like a free market...

Meanwhile, as it always does over time, the 'free market' moves forward in a steadfast manner courtesy of the Oregon Business Report:

"Titles may now be in doubt for people who bought properties either at a foreclosure sale or further along the line. Also, no market may exist for these properties if title insurers choose not to insure titles until there is some clarity. Going forward, will MERS lenders do business in Oregon? And if so, at what cost? Loans may be more expensive to administer because they either require that all assignments be documented and recorded or foreclosure via the more expensive judicial method. As such, loans in Oregon could demand higher interest rates.

Courts will see a sharp increase in the number of judicial foreclosure filings; it’s happening in Multnomah County already. An already overcrowded judicial system will gain additional burdens."

So are we to restore "certainty" and "sanity" to our real estate markets? Is it worth higher interest rates to have the title/deed recorded properly through the local county authority as has been done for hundreds of years? Or is it clearly imperative that title assignments be handled by Wall St and that home prices keep going "up" regardless of real wages? Heaven forbid that all assignments be documented and recorded locally?!?!?

Where would you rather have your land claim be recorded and heard in court?

A.) With the local county clerk's office

B.) With Wall St / DC sanctioned MERS?

***Comment from Clint8200***

Hello everyone,

I've had to do it again. Twice in five years. I've switched commenting systems. The current comment system (Haloscan) has made a shift away from being a 'free forever' service to a 'pay us or we'll delete all your comments and prevent valued readers from commenting ever again' service. Unfortunately your monthly blog subscriptions don't offset their monthly service charge so I'll switch back to the old blogger commenting system. I apologize for the inconvenience and hope you find the new format easy to use.

Portland RMLS Market Action Report – June 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Clint8200) — Tue, 07 Aug 2012 05:40:00 +0000

The Regional Multiple Listing Service released the Market Action Report this week and the median sale price for June 2012 was $242,000; this is an 8.6% increase from the median sale price for June 2011.

The Portland residential real estate market peaked in August 2007 with a median sale price of $302,000. Prices fell 30% from that peak before bottoming in January 2012 with a median sale price of $207,500. Prices have risen 16.6% from the bottom.

Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) sits at 3.9 months compared to the 6.0 months of supply for the same month last year. A balanced market has about 7 months of supply.
The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.

The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply. There are currently 8,751 homes for sale; this is a decrease of 25.5% from the same month the year before.

The third chart shows closed sales by month. There were 2,244 closed sales during the month; an increase of 14.6% from the same month the year before.

The fourth chart shows new listings by month. There were 3,208 new listings during the month; an increase of 2.1% from the same month the year before.

The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. Prices would have to fall 10.74% from the current median for the ratio to reach 3.0.

The Waiting Game - Portland's REO Constipation

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Sat, 28 Apr 2012 19:21:00 +0000

The more things change the more they stay the same...

"The vast majority of repossessed Portland-area homes aren't up for sale. Instead, more than 80 percent of them are off the market, many vacant and developing maintenance problems that might ultimately take a toll on their resale value if and when they do sell."

And of course at its core, we have simple root cause analysis pointing directly at the behavior of the two legged rats running the banks, who have to make their blatant title/securities/balance sheet fraud legal and/or profitable before it's convenient for them to foreclose...

"In some cases, particularly after the robo-signing scandal that emerged in late 2010, lenders had paperwork issues to resolve before they could sell properties to third parties. Major banks put the brakes on foreclosures and foreclosure sales in the past couple of years while they audited the ones in progress and negotiated what became a $25 billion settlement with 49 states and the District of Columbia.

McCredie, a broker with 30 years of experience in bank-owned properties, said the Portland foreclosure machine may be further slowed by the issue of the Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems, an industry workaround for local recording laws that's headed to the state Supreme Court. Borrowers have challenged foreclosures involving MERS, and conflicting rulings have left banks skittish about proceeding with new foreclosures and sales, he said.

And some of the delay is likely the result of a bookkeeping maneuver, said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of Carrington Mortgage Holdings. The homes haven't been marked down to their new, lower market value"

Note the last paragraph with respect to balance sheet fraud. If bankers don't have to auction the bad collateral/loans, they don't have to realize a loss and can still pay themselves handsome bonuses.

Google "prompt corrective action" and see just how deep the fraud goes.

Too big to fail?

SOURCE: The Oregonian

Double Dip??

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 03:32:00 +0000

The "mainstream" news today:
Americans brace for next foreclosure wave

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The "black market" news today:
The Second Foreclosure Tsunami Is Coming,
And Is About To Kill Any Hopes Of A "Housing Bottom"

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The Portland Housing Blog commentary from last November:
Double Dip?

So what do the Portland Housing Blog folks see on the ground for our local/regional real estate market in Spring/Summer 2012? 2013?

Is this really the bottom? In nominal dollars? In real dollars?

Or are we merely in the eye of a bigger hurricane?

Buy? Sell now while you still can? Rent? Stop paying and squat?

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Signs of life for commercial real estate

noreply@blogger.com (Clint8200) — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 04:53:00 +0000

From the Oregonian:

Multnomah County Chairman Jeff Cogen announced a tentative deal with Melvin Mark Development Co. Friday to launch a Pike Place-style market at the west end of the Morrison Bridge.

Envisioned as an "iconic gateway" to downtown, the market would host 110 local vendors of food and food-related products and sit next to a new office tower on Southwest First Avenue. Together, the projects are expected to bring $10.4 million to the county's fragile general fund, transforming an empty county-owned lot into a bustling tourist destination that would complement nearby Portland Saturday Market.

This along with the target deal show things are starting to move again. We are very close to the bottom of the market if not past it.

Oregon Supreme Court Set to Rule on MERS

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 04:59:00 +0000

So the majority of the state attorneys general in the US have rolled over for Wall St and ignored the mass fraud that occurred when it came to recording chain of custody to title/deed/mortgage documentation at the county level. Just for the record, our own Oregon Attorney General John Kroger also chose to sweep the fraud under the rug and signed on to the "settlement".

MERS is a sham property recording system conceived by the banksters, and it has circumvented local property recording laws that have worked well for hundreds of years. Nowadays? We have multiple robo-signers named "Linda Green" with varying signatures via shell corporations that have no real assets on their balance sheets deciding exactly who "owns" what real estate in our fair city. Legal chain of custody via county land records? Ha! That's soooooo 18th-20th century.

I suspect the Oregon supreme court will roll over and play ball as well. At this point, nobody wants to upset the apple cart that's already dripping with rotten apple juice. It's gotten to the point for the five largest banks in America, that knocking off your local 7-11 store for $3k in a robbery is routine, and the "justice" that comes via legal consequences are small fines for a few hundred bucks per heist.

Business as usual. Control fraud.

Good work if you can get it...and if you can get away with it:

"The court will have to determine whether MERS qualifies as a loan beneficiary under state law and whether it has met state recording standards.

"It has undermined the whole basis of law that our country was founded on, in establishing a chain of title," said John Bowles, a partner at the Bowles Fernandez law firm in Lake Oswego. "MERS is a privately owned mechanism, owned by the principal industry players, that have chosen to subvert the whole system of recording."

MERS said Thursday it was still waiting to hear details of the court's order.

"We do not have the specifics yet from the court, but we look forward to the opportunity to present the seven honorable justices of the Oregon Supreme Court with the ample evidence of the benefits and legality of the MERS model," spokeswoman Janis Smith said in a statement. "

Source:

The Oregonian

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December 2011 S&P Case-Shiller Index

noreply@blogger.com (Clint8200) — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 02:16:00 +0000

The S&P Case-Shiller Index is based on observed changes in home prices. It is designed to measure the increases or decreases in the market value of residential real estate.

For each home sale transaction, a search is conducted to find information regarding any previous sale for the same house. If an earlier transaction is found, the two transactions are paired and are considered a “repeat sale.” Sales pairs are designed to yield the price change for the same house, while holding the quality and size of each house constant.

Sales pairs from the following counties are included in the Portland index: Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill, Clark (WA), and Skamania (WA).

The first graph shows all historical data for Portland, Seattle, and the 10 city index. The Portland residential real estate market has fallen 5.5% in the last year.

The next graph highlights the indices changes since the Federal Reserve stopped lowering interest rates in June of 2003. The Portland index is currently at 132.76; a decline of 28.32% since the market peak. The last time the index was this low was September of 2004.

The final graph shows the year over year percent change since June of 2003.

Portland RMLS Market Action Report – December 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Clint8200) — Sun, 29 Jan 2012 19:52:00 +0000

The Regional Multiple Listing Service released the Market Action Report this week and the median sale price for December 2011 was $216,600; this is a 6.7% decrease from the median sale price for December 2010.

The Portland residential real estate market peaked in August 2007 with a median sale price of $302,000. Prices have now fallen 28% from that peak.

Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) sits at 5.3 months compared to the 10.7 months of supply for the same month last year. A balanced market has about 7 months of supply.

The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.

The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply. There are currently 8,543 homes for sale; this is a decrease of 26% from the same month the year before.

The third chart shows closed sales by month. There were 1,612 closed sales during the month; an increase of 10% from the same month the year before.

The fourth chart shows new listings by month. There were 1,700 new listings during the month; a decrease of 12% from the same month the year before.

The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. Prices would have to fall 3.0% from the current median for the ratio to reach 3.0.

Portland RMLS Market Action Report – October 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Clint8200) — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 07:10:00 +0000

The Regional Multiple Listing Service released the Market Action Report this week and the median sale price for October 2011 was $217,800; this is a 6.7% decrease from the median sale price for October 2010.

The Portland residential real estate market peaked in August 2007 with a median sale price of $302,000. Prices have now fallen 28% from that peak.

Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) sits at 6.8 months compared to the 10.7 months of supply for the same month last year. A balanced market has about 7 months of supply.

The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.

The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply. There are currently 10,023 homes for sale; this is a decrease of 27.5% from the same month the year before.

The third chart shows closed sales by month. There were 1,474 closed sales during the month; an increase of 14.1% from the same month the year before.

The fourth chart shows new listings by month. There were 2,433 new listings during the month; a decrease of 22% from the same month the year before.

The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. Prices would have to fall 3.5% from the current median for the ratio to reach 3.0.

Double Dip?

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 03:24:00 +0000

Don't take the Portland Housing Blog's word for it, just read the news:

"The rate at which mortgage holders were late with their payments by 60 days or more rose in the June-to-September period for the first time since the last three months of 2009, according to TransUnion.

The increase surprised TransUnion researchers, who had expected late payments, or delinquencies, to fall for the quarter. "It's much different than we've been talking about the last few quarters," said Tim Martin, group vice president of U.S. Housing in TransUnion's financial services business unit.

The problems were widespread. Between the second and third quarters, all but 10 states and the District of Columbia saw delinquency rates increase.

Another possibility for the bump in the delinquency rate is that a new crop of adjustable mortgages written toward the end of the housing bubble is resetting. Even if their interest rates remain low after the adjustment, payments might have increased, said Darren Blomquist, a Realtytrac spokesman. "We still have the bad loans mixed in that are resetting." "

Source: USA TODAY

Meanwhile closer to home right here in Stumptown, one of your neighbors on either side of your house is still underwater mathematically - and that's if you're the lucky 2 out of 3 loan owners:

1/3 of PDX Homes Underwater - Source: The Oregonian

Still not convinced that the "bottom" is yet to come? If you would like some technical data as to why a double dip is baked into the cake, please re-read the post below, and pay special attention to the graph at the bottom. It's a hard rain that's gonna fall this winter on the Portland housing market.

STILL convinced that it's 'different' here in the great Pacific Northwest? You were blatantly and clearly warned in mid August by The News Tribune out of Tacoma that we're now solidly in the middle innings of the housing bubble game for the Portland/Seattle part of the world.

Early Innings of the Game = Bad Loans and High Prices

Middle Innings of the Game = Delinquent Payments and Declining Prices

Late Innings of the Game = Default/Auction/Free Market Prices
(the bottom)

The global banking industry/cartel is desperately trying to deny the inevitable math so as to pull off a soft landing and maintain usury/debt based currency control. Look at the European Union! Sorry Charlie. This bubble popping was born to be heard around the world...there's a major shift afoot.

However, the bubble blogger beleaguered should be wary that the late innings of the game may take longer to play out than many anticipate...

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Get Ready for the Double Dip Portland

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 02:48:00 +0000

"Compared with July 2010, home prices in Portland have dropped 8.4 percent. That's the third-deepest decline of the 20 cities surveyed in the index."

Source: The Oregonian

So where do we go from here (as if the trend in the graph above wasn't enough)?

The fact that foreclosures were held at bay for much of 2010/2011, and the timing of payment shocks per the chart below will both have severe effects on Portland's housing market going forward. At Portland's peak in 2006/2007 roughly 1/3 of originated loans were either Alt-A or Option-ARM financed. The common sales pitch for such high commission loans at the time from the average McRealtor / McBroker went something like this "You can always refinance to a low fixed rate when you have more equity".

Whoops.

2012 through 2013 will give stumptown a strong taste of what the bottom feels like. It will take at least that long if not longer to clear the delinquent inventory of homes and find firm price footing. Portland spent most of the last 12 months declining ~10% annually. That trend will continue for the immediate future.

Debts which cannot be paid monthly - will never be repaid in full. It's really that simple. The house will end up foreclosed upon and sold to the free market sooner or later. The banks/politicians will drag their heels and kick the can to avoid reality, but the simple cash flow math does not lie. Home prices in Portland will continue to decline for at least another year, if not several years.

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End Of Summer 2011 - Oregon's Graphic Reality

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 05:29:00 +0000

Pacific NW Mortgage Delinquincies Still Climbing

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 04:08:00 +0000

From the Tacoma News Tribune:

"The Seattle area and Portland, Ore., are among only 12 of the 100 largest U.S. metros where so-called serious delinquency grew from March 2010 to March 2011. Seattle; Bremerton, and Eugene, Ore., are also in the top 25 metros by growth in serious delinquency, according to the news release."

Interest Rates: A Major Turning Point?

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Sat, 06 Aug 2011 04:06:00 +0000

Everyone who follows housing knows that prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship. As interest rates fall, prices rise, and vice versa. Now the meltdown shifts gears and will pick up speed as the global bankster cartel has just gotten started squeezing the masses:

S&P Downgrades the United States of America!!!

The Source

The Commentary

The money printers say "no problem, nothing to see here, move along"

The man in charge of the United States Treasury

Hang on to your hats, shit's about to get real. Between Japan, the EU, and soon the US - the chickens are coming home to roost. The banksters want their money/assets...and they'll get them. One way or the other via inflation or deflation - they will not be denied their riches begotten from the privilege to print our currency and control our economy.

History repeats...

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I Am Linda Green

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 01:59:00 +0000

It's the same old same old from CONgress and our criminal justice system...robosigning legal documents is still a daily bankster practice. Sad, but true. Our legal system is no match for the too big to fail banks.

What in the hell does Eric Holder do all damn day?!?!?!?

Sources: Reuters, AP/Chicago Tribune

Commentary: 4closureFRAUD, Statesman, ZeroHedge, Firedoglake, Naked Capitalism, Lynn Szymoniak

(image courtesy of WilliamBanzai7)

Who Will Pay For the Bubble?

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 04:11:00 +0000

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We Are Now A Broken Record: Home Prices Still Trending ~10% Lower Year Over Year in Oregon

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 05:02:00 +0000

Same old same old...from Core Logic's HPI:

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Portland's Spring Selling Season In 1000 Words

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 01:43:00 +0000

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Robert Shiller Tells the Truth

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 04:09:00 +0000

" "My gut feeling is we might see a continuation of the decline" in home prices, Shiller said earlier on Thursday at a Standard & Poor's housing summit. He added that a 10 percent to 25 percent slump in real home prices "wouldn't surprise me at all"

As for when home prices might bottom, Shiller told Insider that was unclear and it was possible prices could slide for 20 years. "We've seen five years of decline already since the peak in 2006 and I don't see evidence that we're coming out of it," he said.

Shiller, known for warning about bubbles in the stock market and housing market, is also the co-founder of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. Last week the index showed single-family home prices in March slumped to lows not seen since March 2003, falling below the previous crisis-era bottom set in April 2009."

Source: Reuters

Commentary: ZeroHedge

Lessons Learned:

“It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their selfish purposes. Distinctions in society will always exist under every just government. Equality of talents, of education, or of wealth can not be produced by human institutions.

In the full enjoyment of the gifts of Heaven and the fruits of superior industry, economy, and virtue, every man is equally entitled to protection by law; but when the laws undertake to add to these natural and just advantages artificial distinctions, to grant titles, gratuities, and exclusive privileges, to make the rich richer and the potent more powerful, the humble members of society-the farmers, mechanics, and laborers-who have neither the time nor the means of securing like favors to themselves, have a right to complain of the injustice of their Government.

There are no necessary evils in government. Its evils exist only in its abuses. If it would confine itself to equal protection, and, as Heaven does its rains, shower its favors alike on the high and the low, the rich and the poor, it would be an unqualified blessing. In the act before me there seems to be a wide and unnecessary departure from these just principles.

Experience should teach us wisdom. Most of the difficulties our Government now encounters and most of the dangers which impend over our Union have sprung from an abandonment of the legitimate objects of Government by our national legislation, and the adoption of such principles as are embodied in this act.

Many of our rich men have not been content with equal protection and equal benefits, but have besought us to make them richer by act of Congress. By attempting to gratify their desires we have in the results of our legislation arrayed section against section, interest against interest, and man against man, in a fearful commotion which threatens to shake the foundations of our Union.

It is time to pause in our career to review our principles, and if possible revive that devoted patriotism and spirit of compromise which distinguished the sages of the Revolution and the fathers of our Union. If we can not at once, in justice to interests vested under improvident legislation, make our Government what it ought to be, we can at least take a stand against all new grants of monopolies and exclusive privileges, against any prostitution of our Government to the advancement of the few at the expense of the many, and in favor of compromise and gradual reform in our code of laws and system of political economy.”

-President Andrew Jackson’s Veto Regarding the 2nd Central Bank of the United States; July 10, 1832.

(The Federal Reserve is the "new" privately owned central bank to control our "money")

Core Logic: Oregon RE Prices Decline 9.4% YOY

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Thu, 02 Jun 2011 04:23:00 +0000

From Core Logic's April HPI:

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Oregon Alert: MERS/Banks vs. Private Property Rights

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 03:33:00 +0000

And now we find the great Northwest smack dab in the middle of the battle over private property rights. Oregon has landed front and center in the lap of every voter who is, or hopes to ever be a "home owner". Does the 10th Amendment to the US Constitution matter anymore?

"A bid by major financial institutions to retroactively waive Oregon recording requirements blocking foreclosure sales appears in jeopardy but will get at least one more day, a legislative leader says.

"They did an end-run around a centuries-old land recording system guaranteeing that we know who owns the underlying IOU on our property," said Angela Martin, executive director of Economic Fairness Oregon. "They did an end-around around that and now it's backfiring and they want a do over." "

Hello Portland, Oregon! Does it matter to you that chain of custody/deed/title is controlled and judiciated LOCALLY, or do you prefer ex post facto laws from WALL ST. determining just "who" owns "what" real estate in soggy bottomed Oregon?

Those who fail to pay the monthly nut will lose the house, and so should all the skimming banksters who lent the money fraudulently in the first place. I have two words for both losers: Glass Steagall.

Securitization of assets failed 80 years ago. Shocker. Then we decided that it was just fine to start up the ponzi again in 1999 (sigh) . . .

Full details courtesy of ZeroHedge.com. Contact info for the legislative committee is at the bottom of the article. If you care - then act now.

Special thanks to The Oregonian for having the balls to actually publish something somewhat independent, and beyond status quo pablum.

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Oregon Mortgage Delinquencies

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Mon, 23 May 2011 00:51:00 +0000

From Calculated Risk:

Bottom line is that ~ 1 out of 10 mortgages here are still struggling.

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Core Logic: Oregon RE Prices Decline 9.2% YOY

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Sun, 15 May 2011 00:28:00 +0000

From Core Logic's March HPI:

Spring 2011 Guide Before You Buy Or Sell

noreply@blogger.com (MontyB503) — Sat, 07 May 2011 05:24:00 +0000

Courtesy of Michael David White:

30 Charts To See Before You Buy -OR- Sell Your Home