Details are sparse on the Amazon deal.  The link above gushes without providing any details on what it will cost the state, county, and municipality.  From the Chattanooga Times Free Press we find: “Both entities [Hamilton County and Chattanooga City] approved financial incentives for the project that will last over the next decade, while the state is expected to provide tax credits and training.”  A little searching turned up an estimate of $30 million in incentive costs, with the county giving up almost 500,000 in property tax revenue (though receiving nearly the same amount in school taxes from Amazon) and the city giving up in excess of $700,000 in revenue, though these values probably went up with further bargaining.

A little back of the envelope estimating: 2,000 jobs (including holiday seasonal workers) at an average of $30,000 (from the articles) means $60 million in earnings to area workers.  Tennessee’s individual income tax is 6% of taxable income, which works out to a maximum revenue of $1.2 million per year.  Though it is surely lower than this because much of the year Amazon will only have 1,200 employees and it is certain that not all of the $30,000 income is taxable.

Of course there are additional tax impacts that aren’t included in this, and we can’t really conclude much with a back of the envelope calculation, but ballpark suggests it will take 20 or more years before the state will begin to see a benefit.  Assuming Amazon.com stays there that long.

This deal is pretty typical of the incentive/investment game, though I was impressed with the provision that has Amazon contributing its portion of school taxes.  With more information we could really start to make some fiscal impact estimates, but that will do for now.

I’m ignoring a lot of arguments about network effects, further investment by Amazon’s partners as result, the improved quality of life that will result from the jobs Amazon will offer, and other things of that nature.  Those things are particularly hard to measure, especially in a simple blog post without access to much information.  But I welcome discussion on those matters if you feel like commenting.

As for the Grayslake village project, I stopped reading after this line made me laugh out loud:

Ellis [Grayslake village manager] said that the Cornerstone project will play a major role in the village’s goal of creating a significant economic development area for the community to create jobs, increasing economic activity, adding a tax base for its schools to reduce the need for increases in homeowner property taxes and to provide additional retail and service options for the area.

Does he think all of the new people won’t have children who will increase the burden on the schools as much as or more than the tax base will increase their revenue?

Zing!

© zot for Zotgeist, 2010. | Permalink | No comment

Add to del.icio.us

Search blogs linking this post with Technorati

Want more on these topics ? Browse the archive of posts filed under Economics.

In my free time I am working on an open source economic model.  When it gets to a slightly usable point I will release it into the wild.  It’s the first time I’ve really rolled up my sleeves and started programming (unless you count a laughable attempt to create a web site with RoR).  I’m having a blast, I’m learning a lot.  But mostly, I’m trying to realize that if something seems hard it’s because it is, but that I can chip away at it little by little until I understand it and it becomes easier and easier.

So from time to time I will be here, posting some trivial thing I have learned or thought about that most of the world already knows.

On a related note, it was refreshing to read about the estimate of economic impacts from an Amazon distribution center.  The study takes into account that Amazon won’t be drawing a lot of suppliers into the region, and their impact multipliers are on the reasonable order of 1.5 to 1.75.  From time to time I plan on taking a look at studies like this to highlight good estimates and point out flaws in bad estimates.

Till next time.

© zot for Zotgeist, 2010. | Permalink | No comment

Add to del.icio.us

Search blogs linking this post with Technorati

Want more on these topics ? Browse the archive of posts filed under Economics, Meta.

© zot for Zotgeist, 2010. | Permalink | No comment

Add to del.icio.us

Search blogs linking this post with Technorati

Want more on these topics ? Browse the archive of posts filed under Former Life.

Laying off a bit seemed to have helped significantly.  I felt good on test day and was able to overcome the feeling of desperation that comes from doing worse as you try harder to do better.  Ultimately I probably could have gotten a few more points, but I’m not going to complain.  At this point, I have other things to think about.

So anyway, you might want to reference my earlier post about my LSAT studying strategy.  I have a few more months in the U.S. before I leave for the Peace Corps, and don’t anticipate many more posts on this blog until I have returned in two years.  In the meantime, you can check out my Peace Corps blog.

© zot for Zotgeist, 2008. | Permalink | One comment

Add to del.icio.us

Search blogs linking this post with Technorati

Want more on these topics ? Browse the archive of posts filed under Former Life.

I began by taking a couple of tests to get a baseline. There are two test that you can download from the LSAT website. I ordered The Next 10 Actual Official LSAT Prep Tests as well as Powerscore’s Logic Games Bible and Logic Reasoning Bible. Powerscore has an edge on other LSAT prep providers because they actually license the old test questions from the LSAT for use in studying.  I also ordered 9 of the most recent unbundled prep tests (Prep Tests 42-51).

My initial strategy was rather unstructured, starting with taking the oldest tests first and working through the Logic Games Bible simultaneously. Two important things helped me add some points to my score. The first is that while the LG Bible system is excellent, it is easy to spend too much time on the initial setup of the game and waste time. The system itself also takes getting used to. My first few tests using that system I was consistently five to 10 minutes over the time limit. However, by reducing the time I spent trying to draw inferences in the initial game, I was able to significantly reduct my time.

I also began keeping track of my scores in each section. In the beginning I missed roughly six problems in each logic games section, three or four in each reasoning section, and four in each reading section. After working through the LG Bible and simply practicing with the reading section, I’m down to missing one in each.

Improvements in the reasoning section were more difficult to come by. I began by working through the Logic Reasoning Bible while continuing to take tests, but wasn’t seeing much improvement. After a week of that, I postponed taking tests for a week to focus exclusively on the LR Bible. This focus on strategy for the reasoning section allowed me to reduce the number of missed problems in each reasoning section by one or two. The best part about this is that I get a double bonus for my work in this section because there are two reasoning sections on each test.

I also set up a spreadsheet of each problem in the reasoning sections, classifying it according to the LR Bible categories and indicating if I got it right. This has allowed me to focus more heavily on those categories of questions I get wrong most often.

My overall strategy hasn’t been particularly complicated: find the areas where I do the most poorly and focus on them. As these areas improve and returns to effort decrease, shift to the new worst area. I see several other things as having made a big difference as well. Working through each bible before rather than in tandem with working through prep tests is when I saw the biggest increases in my score. Additionally, I choose not to focus heavily on time after my first couple of tests. While time is an essential aspect of the LSAT, I think getting the process down in the beginning allows for substantial increases in speed later on. By focusing on time early on, you cheat yourself of a full analysis process for each problem. Simple repetition is a big factor as well. At this point I’ve taken thirteen tests, and I’ve noticed patterns that allow me to move more quickly and confidently in answering each question.

With one more week to study and eight more prep tests, I’m hoping to increase that a few more points before I take the test on June 17th.

There is other interesting stuff on LSAT strategies from sites such as the forums at top law schools and the LSAT Discussion forums.

The whole process has been an interesting experiment in testing how trainable standardized tests are. I tend to blow of studying for standardized tests, and haven’t ever studied for a standardized test as methodically or thoroughly as this one. As a consequence I expected this test to be rather trainable, as I’ve always thought about standardized tests. While my score has certainly improved, it has not been as large and improvement or as easy a process as I expected it to be. Does this mean that the LSAT is a good measure of a person’s skills in reading comprehension and logic? Is the GRE or the SAT a corresponding good measure of general knowledge? Does the MCAT accurately measure scientific knowledge?

I’ve always held that standardized tests were somewhat bogus, and I still think that as a measure of intelligence they are quite lacking. But perhaps if their scores are taken with a grain of salt, that is, with the recognition that they are only measuring the specific skill set associated with answering the types of questions on the test, they can be a useful tool for evaluating potential students.

In the end, the test’s usefulness as a predictor of student success seems dependent on how well the activities of students are similar to the test taking process. In law school the LSAT is supposed to be an excellent measure of student success. But is this because the people who do well on the test are simply good at taking tests, since in law school grades are dependent on your final? I worry that we correlate intelligence with test-taking ability, when the reality is almost certainly more subtle.

Anyway, I will have to present some data on my score improvement after the thing is done with.

Good luck to the rest of you test takers, and to you non-test takers trying to make your way.

© zot for Zotgeist, 2008. | Permalink | No comment

Add to del.icio.us

Search blogs linking this post with Technorati

Want more on these topics ? Browse the archive of posts filed under Former Life.