The one and only thing that might possibly spare Greece the agony of a completely worthless currency is Greece’s small hoard of 111 tons of gold.

Pact With the Devil

Yet, in the fine print in the latest deal, Greece’s lenders will have the right to seize its gold reserves according to the New York Times article Growing Air of Concern in Greece Over New Bailout.

In the fine print of the 400-plus-page document — which Parliament members had a weekend to read and sign — Greece relinquished fundamental parts of its sovereignty to its foreign lenders, the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

“This is the first time ever that a European and probably an O.E.C.D. state abdicates its rights of immunity over all its assets to its lenders,” said Louka Katseli, an independent member of Parliament who previously represented the Socialist Party, using the abbreviation for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. She was one of several independents who joined 43 lawmakers from the two largest parties in voting against the loan agreement.

Ms. Katseli, an economist who was labor minister in the government of George Papandreou until she left in a cabinet reshuffle last June, was also upset that Greece’s lenders will have the right to seize the gold reserves in the Bank of Greece under the terms of the new deal, and that future bonds issued will be governed by English law and in Luxembourg courts, conditions more favorable to creditors.

Causing a Nightmare Scenario

On Tuesday, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos defended the new debt agreement, calling it “the most significant deal in Greece’s postwar history” and asserting that it had “averted a nightmare scenario.”

Today this same puppet of the Troika installed government claims, as he has been for weeks, No Loan Deal Means Absolute Catastrophe

Greece Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said Thursday Greece would face an absolute catastrophe if it didn’t approve the terms demanded by international creditors in exchange for a second bailout, which includes a EUR107 billion debt write-down plan.

Greece is already in a state of absolute catastrophe. The one thing 100% guaranteed to make matters worse for Greece is if Greece lost its hoard of gold to the thieves and plunderers at the IMF and Troika.

Rather than “averting a nightmare scenario” that pact is going to “cause” a nightmare hyperinflation scenario.

Value of 111 Tons of Gold

One tonne = 1000 kilograms = 32150.746 troy ounces.
At $ 1780 per troy ounce, the value of that gold is roughly $ 6.35 billion.

Given an estimated size of the Greek economy at $ 290 billion or so, that is not a huge hoard.

However, something is better than nothing as Zimbabwe proves. Something is enough to prevent a currency from going completely worthless, although obviously not enough to prevent a massive devaluation.

Still Time

There is still time for Greece to come to its senses and reject the deal. Also recall the conditions of the deal  require a constitutional change and that is impossible before 2013.

For details, please see Greece Needs New Constitutional Provision Imposed by the Troika; Slight Problem, Constitutionally It Can’t Do it

Biggest Hope for Greece is Germany

In an enormous irony, Germany may be the biggest hope for Greece. Although France and other countries do want this pact to go through, Germany’s words and actions prove that Germany does not.

Germany has put up roadblock after roadblock attempting to get Greece to scuttle the deal, only to have fools like Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos agree to them.

It may be up to Germany to come up with still more ludicrous demands in hope that the Greek finance minister and Greek politicians finally get the message “it’s not wise to make a pact with the Troika devil”, especially one that requires Greece to relinquish its gold.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Wow, this is a new one for the Journal…

Mr. Obama yesterday blamed rising demand from the likes of Brazil and China, and there is something to that as well. But this energy demand is also not new, and if anything Chinese and Brazilian economic growth has been slowing in recent months.

Another suspect—one Mr. Obama doesn’t like to mention—is U.S. monetary policy. Oil is traded in dollars, and its price therefore rises when the value of the dollar falls, all else being equal. The Federal Reserve throughout Mr. Obama’s term has pursued the easiest monetary policy in modern times, expressly to revive the housing market. It has done so with the private support and urging of the White House and through Mr. Obama’s appointees who are now a majority on the Fed’s Board of Governors.

Yep.  And it hasn’t worked — because it can’t work.

“Reviving” the housing market presumes there’s something to revive.  That is, the presumption is that the “slump” in home prices and demand is something that is unnatural and can thus be reverted to a “mean” that is actually positive.

That’s a fantasy — what was false was the price signaling in the housing market during the 2000s.  From 2003 to 2007 house prices went on a tear that had nothing to do with intrinsic value, and indeed that problem had been brewing since the 1980s! What we saw in the 2000s was the final, end-stage parabolic blow-off top that always happens when a geometric series gets out of hand — unless, of course, it’s short-circuited first.

All the arm-waving that has gone on since is an attempt to do nothing more than re-inflate fraudulent prices that were generated through fraudulent lending practices.

It won’t work because it can’t work.

Look folks, I know that people don’t want to hear it, but the fact is that real purchasing power of the American worker has been in decline for more than a decade.  Nominal wages have declined since 2000 and with inflation purchasing power has been in the toilet.  The so-called “2% inflation target” is a rude scam over decade-long periods (not to mention longer periods of time) and must be eliminated in favor of actual stable prices.

Greenspan, Bush and The Fed generally all tried to evade recognition of the Internet Bubble’s “valuation blow-off” with more cheap credit, which fueled the housing bubble and led to a consumption blow-off with borrowed home equity “money.” 

But that value never existed although the debt created sure did, and as a result we dug an even-bigger and deeper hole.

It is time to “eat our peas”, despite the fact that we won’t like it.  The reason to do it now is the same as it was in 2007 when started I writing on this — the longer we wait the more damage we must accept, as geometric functions never get “better” in their impact the longer you wait to deal with them.

Storage Containers go hand in hand with emergency preparedness. Preppers collect all sorts of survival gear and survival food, and they (we) need storage solutions. Storage containers fulfill that need!

Over the years I have settled upon a variety of methods for food storage and survival supplies. For the most part, we keep many of our ‘things’ in plastic storage containers of one size or another. Some containers are see-through while others are opaque. Some are large 70-quart containers while others are small 18-quart containers.

We also use lots of smaller storage containers for day-to-day use of various foods so that we can keep them air-tight and fresh. Rubbermaid makes lots of these.

We have tried all sorts of brands. I have learned that in general, you get what you pay for. Meaning, if it’s real cheap, it will probably break or be inferior in some way. The best plastic storage containers will cost more, but you will get several very good advantages and features for your money.

Before you buy storage containers, review this first…

Look for heavy-duty plastic. That means plastic that is thick compared to the cheap ones. The thin, soft, pliable plastic will not support much weight when stacked on top of each-other, especially if they contain canned foods and other heavy items. Thin plastic will deteriorate quicker and will become brittle over time, especially when cold.

Get containers with flip-over latches that snap over on top of the cover (see picture). Many containers do not have this style latch and the covers will annoyingly fall off when handled or twisted in any way.

Favor storage containers that are designed to stack well. The cover needs a unique design to not only hold the container above it, but also to secure it if the stack is jostled or tipped. Some styles are better than others in this area.

A final decision is whether to use see-through containers or opaque (not see-through). For much of our food storage and gear, we now use see-through because it just makes it so much quicker and easier to know what’s inside when we’re looking for something. Some may wish to use only opaque (out-of-sight, out-of-mind), but you should think that through… You may realize that the advantages of see-through outweigh the desire for privacy.

Advantages of using plastic storage containers rather than cardboard boxes are many. It will definitely cost you more money than cardboard boxes, but once you’ve purchased them, you’re set for many years. Whereas a cardboard box will not last and is obviously inferior when it comes to comparing strength, durability and usability.

Another advantage of storage containers over other methods, including shelving, etc. is that it makes for easy and quick mobility. You can easily move your ‘stuff’ or rearrange it. Moving or packing individual items on shelves is tedious at best.

So, in summary, when considering storage solutions, give some thought to the the notion of storage containers for your food storage, survival gear, or other emergency supplies.

Here is one of the styles that we use around here. Sterilite 30-Quart Ultra Latch Storage Containers

If you enjoyed this or topics of emergency preparedness, or are planning for disaster,
Read our current articles on Modern Survival Blog

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JWR:
In response to some of the comments on my article:  My point is that is not necessary to carry a lot of "gear" to survive in the wilderness.  I’ve seen some list of items you would need a van to carry it away.   If we have a major earthquake on the New Madrid Fault (and shut down bridges for hundreds of miles on the Mississippi River and cut off the food supply to half the country), flood, tornado, Yellowstone eruption, meteor impact, economic collapse or whatever, your gas tank will be empty very soon and then what do you do with all of your "gear"?   The longhunters and native Americans went into the wilderness with only a few items on their backs and lived, not just survived, but lived.  It is very difficult to carry more than 10 days of rations if you need to leave in a hurry the rest is "procured" where every you end up.  If you make it to a well-stocked safe retreat well and good, but you may have to walk there and if you do you will need to survive along the way.

I didn’t want to get into making fish spears, fishing equipment, brush houses, cordage from plants, wild food harvesting, large caliber versus small caliber, hand gun, long gun, et cetera. My focus was that you will need to take the time to test your gear in extreme conditions and determine what is necessary.

As to the durability of my gear, my pack now has over 4,000 miles in some extreme situations and is still going strong.   My tent has over 3,000 miles and not so much as a drop of water in it.  Last year on a hike we had 6 inches of rain in two days and all my gear was "dry as a bone." 

My gear is all forest green with no bright colors.  Please go to my trail journal web page and look at the photos.   Only 10% of the hikers that attempt to through hike the Appalachian Trail complete the hike.   If the gear was not tough it would not survive. 

Test your gear for an extended period of time in all conditions and you will limit it to just the things that are "necessary."

You have a great bog site with some great information.  Thanks for providing it. – Charles M.
 

Hi JWR,
I am writing you about the letter from Charles M. It was an interesting read, and great for the new to long hiking, but had some huge holes in it as far as surviving and G.O.O.D. is concerned. First off he stated that light weight boots had come a long way and that we should stay away from the all leather heavy type. This is false and he proved it himself as he stated that he wore out three pairs on his hike! As a fifth generation Idahoan, I was raised in the woods. Hiking and mountain climbing is a way of life in my family, and I can attest that buying high end boots that will last is a must. I will only buy boots with all leather upper, a stiff shank, Norwegian welt, and a hard semi rockered waffle stomper sole. I have one pair that have climbed many peaks in Idaho, Wyoming, Oregon, Washington, Ecuador, Germany, and Australia that are 10 years old! Other than the nicks and scrapes they still have half the tread left! Light weight boots with a soft sole have no place in a long term use situation. The other was the premise that you can carry all your food on your back. He was re-supplying every 10 days or so at a store. You can carry some of the food you will need but you must be able to produce some along the way.

I went into the woods of central Idaho in June of 2002 (diving a 1980 AMC Eagle) with 15 lbs of brown rice, 5 lbs of dehydrated vegetable soup mix, 10 lbs of oats, 16 oz jug of honey, and 5 oz of salt and pepper mix (I didn’t mix it, after that). I had fly fishing and spin-casting gear, a 1920s single shot .22 rifle (with 500 rounds), a bullpup 9mm (with 150 rounds), 20 gallons of gas, 2 gallons of water capacity in various canteens, a dutch oven, axe, shovel, 5 gallon bucket, high lift jack, and a big dog.

We (the dog and I) lived like kings until the snow pushed us out in late September. I ate fish, rabbits, birds, mushrooms of all types, berries, apples, nettles, wild onions, and so forth.  Take what you have go to your desired “woods” with extra gas so you can come home, and see how long you can last, and see what really stops you in your tracks. (For me, it was two feet of snow at 7,000 feet over night. I thought I was done but the lower I got the lees snow and I was fine.  Could I have lasted the winter?  Maybe, maybe not.) 

Now is the time to find out if all the things you think you have learned really do work.

Cheers from Idaho, – Wayne P.

Much has been written about what particular guns are best for home defense and SHTF, but I haven’t seen much about taking care of these weapons when gunsmiths are not around.  Let’s look at what typically causes firearms to fail. 

As a gunsmith, the main cause of firing malfunctions I see is dirt.  This can be crud built up from dust collecting in oil forming a grease-like substance, or rust, or build-up from burned powder (carbon), or residue from the casings or shells.

The second most encountered problems stem from magazines, or broken or weak springs.  Lost pins or screws, and broken extractors or firing pins tend to be the next [most common] group of failures.

So how do you prepare for these problems?  First, if you don’t have an owner’s manual for your gun, go to the manufacturer’s web site and download one.  It will give you information on proper operation, how to field strip the gun for cleaning, and lubrication instructions.  If it is an older gun, you may be able to find a manual at StevesPages.com.  The next document you should have is an exploded parts list and instructions on disassembly and assembly of the firearm.  Many of these are also available at StevesPages.com. 

The next thing you will need is a good cleaning kit.  Be sure you have lots of patches, and extra bore brushes for your particular caliber.  A chamber brush is also helpful.  There are all types of bore cleaner solvents.  Pick your flavor.  Here is a recipe for a great bore cleaner that you can make up yourself.  It was invented by C.E. ”Ed” Harris. You can always bottle some of it for barter later.  It is the widely-used “Ed’s Red” (ER).   This cleaner has an action very similar to standard military issue rifle bore cleaner, such as Mil-C-372B. Users report it is more effective than Hoppe’s for removing plastic fouling in shotgun bores, or caked carbon fouling in semi-automatic rifles or pistols, or in removing leading in revolvers. It is not as effective as Sweets 7.62, Hoppe’s Bench Rest Nine or Shooter’s Choice for fast removal of heavy copper fouling in rifle bores. However, because "ER" is more effective in removing caked carbon and abrasive primer residues than other cleaners, metal fouling is greatly reduced when "ER" is used on a continuing basis.  It is inexpensive, effective, provides good corrosion protection and adequate residual lubrication so that routine "oiling" after cleaning is rarely necessary, except for long-term storage of over 1 year, or harsh service environments, such as salt water exposure.

CONTENTS: Ed’s Red Bore Cleaner
1 part Dexron II, IIe or III Automatic Transmission Fluid (ATF), GM Spec. D-20265 or later.
1 part Kerosene – deodorized, K1
1 part Aliphatic Mineral Spirits, Fed. Spec. TT-T-2981F, CAS #64741-49-9, or may substitute "Stoddard Solvent", CAS #8052-41-3, or equivalent, (aka "Varsol")
1 part Acetone, CAS #67-64-1.
(Optional up to 1 lb. of Lanolin, Anhydrous, USP per gallon. It is okay to substitute Lanolin, Modified, Topical Lubricant, from the drug store)

MIXING INSTRUCTIONS FOR "ER" BORE CLEANER:

[JWR Adds This Warning: All of the usual precautions for handling caustic and flammable solvent fluids must be taken, such as wearing goggles and rubber gloves.]

Mix outdoors, in good ventilation. Use a clean 1 gallon metal, chemical resistant, heavy gauge PET or PVC plastic container. NFPA approved plastic gasoline storage containers are also okay. Do NOT use a HDPE container, which is permeable, because the acetone will eventually evaporate. The acetone in ER will also attack HDPE, causing the container to collapse, making a big mess!

Add the ATF first. Use the empty ATF container to measure the other components, so that it is thoroughly mixed. If you incorporate the lanolin into the mixture, melt this carefully in a double boiler, taking precautions against fire. Pour the melted lanolin it into a larger container, rinsing the lanolin container with the bore cleaner mix, and stirring until it is all dissolved. Divert a small quantity, up to 4 ounces per quart of the 50-50 ATF/kerosene mix for optional use as an "ER-compatible" gun oil. This can be done without impairing the effectiveness of the remaining mix.

Label with necessary SAFETY WARNINGS: RIFLE BORE CLEANER, CAUTION: FLAMMABLE MIXTURE, HARMFUL OR FATAL IF SWALLOWED. KEEP OUT OF REACH OF CHILDREN.  Flammable mixture! Keep away from heat, sparks or flame. FIRST AID, If swallowed DO NOT induce vomiting, call physician immediately. In case of eye contact immediately flush thoroughly with water and call a physician. For skin contact wash thoroughly.

The lanolin can be found at better pharmacies like CVS or Walgreens.  Ask the pharmacist, they usually have it in the back, not out on the shelves.

Ed’s Red will not dissolve copper fouling, so have some copper remover solution on hand.  Be aware that the ammonia in the copper remover can damage stock finishes, and will dissolve brass bore brushes.  Have some extra brushes on hand, or use a stainless steel brush.

The next item to have on hand is a quality gun oil.  They are all pretty good.  Note above that you can make your own from ATF/kerosene mix.  If you want to improve on this, add a little lanolin.  The lanolin provides longer term protection, since some of the other ingredients will eventually evaporate.

INSTRUCTIONS FOR USING "Ed’s Red (ER)" Bore Cleaner:
Open the firearm action and ensure the bore is clear. Cleaning is most effective when done while the barrel is still warm to the touch from firing. Saturate a cotton patch with bore cleaner, wrap or impale on jag and push it through the bore from breech to muzzle. The patch should be a snug fit. Let the first patch fall off and do not pull it back into the bore.
Wet a second patch, and similarly start it into the bore from the breech, this time scrubbing from the throat area forward in 4-5" strokes and gradually advancing until the patch emerges out the muzzle. Waiting approximately 1 minute to let the bore cleaner soak will improve its action.

For pitted, heavily carbon-fouled guns, leaded revolvers or neglected bores a bronze brush wet with bore cleaner may be used to remove stubborn deposits. This is unnecessary for smooth, target-grade barrels in routine use.

Use a final wet patch pushed straight through the bore to flush out loosened residue dissolved by Ed’s Red. Let the patch fall off the jag without pulling it back into the bore. If you are finished firing, leaving the bore wet will protect it from rust for 1 year under average conditions.

If the lanolin is incorporated into the mixture, it will protect the firearm from rust for up to two years. For longer term use Lee Liquid Alox as a Cosmoline substitute. "ER" will readily remove hardened Alox or Cosmoline.
Wipe spilled Ed’s Red from exterior surfaces before storing the gun. While Ed’s Red is harmless to blue and nickel finishes, the acetone it contains is harmful to most wood finishes.
Before firing again, push two dry patches through the bore and dry the chamber, using a patch wrapped around a suitably sized brush or jag. First shot point of impact usually will not be disturbed by Ed’s Red if the bore is cleaned as described. It is always good practice to clean your guns twice, two days a apart whenever using corrosively-primed ammunition, just to make sure you get all the corrosive residue out. [JWR Adds: If in doubt about the priming used in any batch of military surplus ammunition or any ammunition of any description that is made in Eastern Europe or China, clean your guns repeatedly!]

Remember, after cleaning, you can apply a thin layer of oil to protect from rust.  Blued or parkerized finishes will still rust.  But notice, I say “thin”.  Excess oil will attract dirt, and can freeze an action in very cold weather.

Now, for spare parts.  Replacement spring sets are available for most guns, usually for about $ 10 to $ 20.  They are inexpensive, and can be purchased from www.Brownells.com  or www.Midway.com.   The other items I would recommend are replacement pin kits, a spare firing pin, and a spare extractor.  If you have an odd or old gun, you may be able to find parts from Numrich at www.GunPartsCorp.com.  Some guns like an AR-15 have critical spare parts kits available for around $ 35.  Even if you don’t feel comfortable replacing some of these parts, gunsmiths will be around, and if you have the parts, and diagrams, they can fix it for you.

Recommended tools would include a basic gunsmithing screwdriver set, some pin punches, a plastic faced or rawhide hammer, needle nose pliers, and some sort of vise, with padding for the jaws.  Specialty tools might be a broken shell extractor for your caliber rifle.

Battery powered optical sights are great, but be sure to have spare batteries, and some sort of iron back-up sights in the event they break.  Extra magazines are also essential.

I don’t want to get into specific guns to buy, but I would recommend a “reliable” one.  Cheap or worn-out guns should be replaced now.  You can keep old ones for barter, but don’t rely on them for yourself.  Also, some guns can cycle reliably on any ammo you feed it, while others are very sensitive to different loads and brands.  You may not be able to have the luxury of buying the exact brand that you like in a SHTF situation, so maybe it is time to trade for one that is happy with anything.  Most new guns need at least 500 rounds run through to properly break them in.  Another good reason to practice!

Another good source of information on particular firearms are the gun forums online.  For instance, GlockTalk.com, AK-Builder.com, FALFiles.com, or AR-15.com. You will learn pretty much all that you need to learn from them.  Just remember, as with this and any info you find on the internet, use common sense applying it.

As a bit of background I recently returned from a year in Afghanistan. During that time Wifey went back home to stay with family in the PNW. We kept our residence in Germany through this time. We left all the shelf stable food in the kitchen. Over this time pretty much everything that was in the kitchen expired. Being cheap we want to use whatever we can. After all food storage is budget neutral or even positive (you can buy at sales since you don’t need it for dinner that night) BUT ONLY IF YOU ACTUALLY EAT THE FOOD. Also I was just plain curious.

Before any more discussion there should probably be a disclaimer. I am going to write some anecdotal observations which come from evaluating and eating food that is past the “best by” date. Please do not take this as anything more than one families individual experiences. I am not a doctor or a nutrition expert or a scientist or in any way qualified to say that expired food is safe to consume.  I am just some yahoo sitting at home eating expired food and writing about it on the internet. Do your own research, talk to some experts and make your own decisions. If you eat a can of oysters that have been in a shed in Alabama for a decade, get sick an die don’t have your survivors come complaining to me.

I think it is important to consider three things when it comes to the dates put on food. The first is that the dates are “best by” not “you will die if you eat after”. Secondly we live in a very litigious society so companies have to error seriously (like belt and suspenders with pants that fit) on the side of caution. Lastly knowing that many people toss stuff at the date on the package and then go out and replace it companies have financial motivation to make the date a bit earlier to (over time and a large customer base) increase their sales. Due to these three things I think the dates on packages are often far earlier than the practical date where food is seriously degraded or unsafe to consume.

We will go item by item in no particular order discussing the edible then those deemed inedible. All items were in their original packaging.

The following items were solidly edible:

Cereal (Cherios 11 months past date, Captain Crunch 13 months past and generic Frosted Flakes 9 months past). No identifiable changes. Smells and tastes fine.

Flour, sealed, 6 months past best by date. It didn’t rise quite as much as normal but tasted fine.

Folgers coffee opened 8 months past best by date. Maybe a little bit stale but perfectly drinkable.

Peter Pan chunky peanut butter, opened and partially used, 8 months past best by date. Starting to separate into solid and oil but smells and tastes fine.

Peter Pan creamy peanut butter opened and partially used, 10 months past best by date. No identifiable changes. Smells and tastes fine.

Crisco vegitable oil, 7 months past date. No identifiable changes. Smells and tastes fine. Used for cooking and baking.

Campbells tomato soup, 8 months past date. Slightly gelatinous and the soup came out with some lumps but otherwise tasted fine.
The below items were deemed inedible:
 
Manwich BBQ Sloppy Joe Sauce, 13 months past date. Opened the can and the contents were gelatinous and seemed to have some pockets of green discoloratation on the top that may have been some sort of mold. Needless to say we did not eat it.
 
Grape Jelly, Smuckers sugarless, unopened and 6 months past date. Smelled slightly like vinegar and we did not eat it.
 
It bears repeating that I am just some yahoo sitting at home eating expired food and writing about it on the internet. Just because something worked once for me does not mean it is necessarily so for all people under all circumstances. Do your own research, consult experts if necessary and use common sense before eating any food that is beyond the best by date or has been preserved/ stored questionably.
 
Anyway I thought this stuff might interest you all. As we try some more stuff I will keep track of it and report the results.

Anne Mahlum, Founder and President of Back on My Feet interviewed on NBC Nightly News. Back on My Feet is a non-profit organization that promotes the self-sufficiency of the homeless population by engaging them in running as a means to build confidence, strength and self-esteem.
Video Rating: 4 / 5

The knife is easily the most important tool in Bush craft, This video shows how to we sharpening a Machete or knife in the woods with out a man made knife sharper, We use this knife sharpener when were out in the wilderness it works great.
Video Rating: 4 / 5

A number of proposals on taxes and the budget have come out recently, one by President Obama, one by Mitt Romney, and one by a friend, John Mauldin.

Every one of the proposals are fatally flawed, most of the for multiple reasons. Before one can fix a problem one must understand it.

In general, Democrats want to raise taxes and spend money.

Republicans on the other hand generally want to cut taxes and spend money. Military spending and Medicare spending both soared under Republican. Bush signed a disastrous Medicare bill.

Both parties claim to be against deficit spending. However, if neither party wants deficit spending then why are their deficits?

Before we get to what’s wrong let’s take a short look at some recent proposals.

Tax Cuts to Prosperity

Mitt Romney proposes A Tax Reform to Restore America’s Prosperity

First, I will make an across-the-board, 20% reduction in marginal individual income tax rates.

Second, I will reduce the corporate tax rate to 25% from 35%, transition from a world-wide taxation system to a territorial one, and make the R&D tax credit permanent.

Third, I will promote savings and investment by maintaining the low 15% rate on capital gains, interest and qualified dividends, and eliminate the tax entirely for those with annual income below $ 200,000.

Fourth, I will take long overdue steps to correct failures in the tax code. I will abolish the death tax, whose primary effect today is to foster elaborate schemes for transferring wealth. I will also repeal the Alternative Minimum Tax, which was intended to make the code simpler and fairer but has accomplished precisely the opposite.

Fifth, I will bring stability to the tax code by making these changes permanent.

A Simple Question

Excuse me for asking a simple question: How the hell are you going to pay for this?

What spending cuts would Romney make? He did not have the decency to say.

Take another look at point number 5. It’s a blatant lie. There is no way to make changes permanent. Any Congress at any time can make tax changes undoing prior Congressional actions.

Obama’s Plan to Close Tax Loopholes

President Obama has a plan to lower the corporate tax  rate. However, on close inspection, To close tax loopholes, Obama would open new ones

President Barack Obama wants to close dozens of loopholes that let some companies pay little or nothing in taxes. But he also wants to open new ones for manufacturers and companies that invest in clean energy.

To some analysts, the new loopholes risk upending the level playing field Obama says he wants to create.

Is Obama attempting to level the playing field on taxes or level the playing field with a potential presidential debate with Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney on manufacturing?

Who knows? What I do know is this will do nothing to cut the deficit.

Obama, Romney Tax Plans Propose Unfunded Corporate Rate Cuts

The Huffington Post reports Obama, Romney Tax Plans Propose Unfunded Corporate Rate Cuts

President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney have begun a new form of competition: proposing corporate tax cut plans that they claim, wrongly, won’t cost the Treasury a dime. Almost immediately after Obama unveiled his plan on Wednesday, one of the nation’s leading tax policy experts threw cold water on the administration’s claim that its tax overhaul could be implemented “without adding a dime to the deficit.” A separate plan released Wednesday by Republican presidential contender Romney, the expert said, would almost certainly expand the deficit.

Debt Will Swell Under 3 of 4 Republican Hopefuls’ Tax Plans

Given the pathetic lack of details in most tax plans one should not be surprised to learn Debt Will Swell Under 3 of 4 Republican Hopefuls’ Tax Plans

The national debt would balloon under tax policies championed by three of the four major Republican candidates for president, according to an independent analysis of tax and spending proposals so far offered by the campaigns.

The lone exception is Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who would pair a big reduction in tax rates with even bigger cuts in government services, slicing about $ 2 trillion from future borrowing.

According to the report released Thursday by U.S. Budget Watch, a project of the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum and former House speaker Newt Gingrich would do the most damage to the nation’s finances, offering tax and spending policies likely to require trillions of dollars in fresh borrowing.

Both men have proposed to sharply cut taxes but have not identified spending cuts sufficient to make up for the lost cash, the report said. By 2021, the debt would rise by about $ 4.5 trillion under Santorum’s policies and by about $ 7 trillion under Gingrich’s plan, pushing the portion of the debt held by outside investors to well over 100 percent of the overall economy, the study said.

The red ink would gush a little more slowly under former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, the report said. Until this week, Romney had paired $ 1.35 trillion in tax cuts with $ 1.2 trillion in spending reductions, leaving the debt rising on a trajectory that closely tracks current policies.

But that changed Wednesday, when Romney proposed to cut federal income tax rates by 20 percent more for all earners, which would slash U.S. revenue by more than $ 2 trillion over 10 years.

Romney economic adviser Glenn Hubbard said the lost cash would be recovered by closing tax loopholes and boosting economic activity. But until the campaign offers a more specific plan, Budget Watch analysts said Romney’s entire framework would add about $ 2.6 trillion to the debt by 2021.

Only Paul emerged as a fiscal conservative in the report. His policies would cut tax revenue by more than $ 5 trillion over the next decade, the report said, but the loss would be offset by more than $ 7 trillion in spending cuts, including deep reductions in defense and federal health programs.

The True Conservative

Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich are collective hypocrites and fake conservatives. Ron Paul stands alone as a true fiscal conservative and a true conservative on military policy as well.

John Mauldin VAT Proposal

Rather than cut taxes, Mauldin primarily seeks to fix the deficit by hiking taxes. Let me say up front that Mauldin is a friend, he is a Republican, and on this issue I politely suggest he is also off his rocker.

Please consider snips from The Cancer of Debt and Deficits by John Mauldin.

The growing debt and the deficit is a deadly cancer on the economy. It will deliver a mortal blow to the economy if not dealt with.

The problem is solvable. It is not that there are not a lot of solutions. It is that we have not yet found the political will to decide what course of treatment is needed. Let’s start with a few basic presuppositions that I think must be addressed in order to marshal an effective set of choices.

1. It has to be politically feasible. The Right would like to address the problem with spending cuts and reforms. Reforms and spending cuts are necessary but not sufficient to deal with the problems. For instance, disability payments are now running $ 200 billion a year and growing rapidly. Some 25% of those unemployed since the beginning of this crisis have somehow qualified for disability payments. We can cut the time allowed for unemployment benefits, but that does not offer large numbers. Government transfers now account for 22% of household income. Cutting that will be politically difficult.

The real problem is health care. How much do we want and how do we want to pay for it? Health care must be thoroughly reformed, but the will (the votes) to go back to the 1990s is just not there. Rising costs can be controlled but not eliminated. The same goes for Social Security. We can raise the retirement age, do means testing, and make other changes; but the fact is that there are more Baby Boomers retiring each year. There is no Social Security Trust Fund. The money was spent on other projects, and now Social Security runs in the red each year. What Republican is running on a platform of taking away Social Security from those who are presently receiving it or will be eligible for Social Security within 10 years? Want to cut defense? Military pensions? Government pensions.

….

The hard reality is that the rich just don’t make enough to cover our current deficit. If we raised taxes to something like 60% on the top 10% of income earners, not just the 1%, we might get enough tax revenue, if the “rich” cooperated by making the same income they do now. That type of tax rate is just not politically feasible under any conceivable elected Congress.

It will require both spending cuts AND different and higher forms of revenue to get a deficit reduction plan through Congress, even a majority Right or Left Congress. If Obama could not get higher taxes (except for health care in the future) in his first two years, with a decidedly Democratic Congress, it is very unlikely to happen in time to deal with the deficit crisis. Something must be done SOON. We don’t have another five election cycles to debate this.

…

[Citing Marc Sumerlin and Larry Lindsey, economic advisors in the White House, and co-authors of a book What a President Should Know … but most learn too late Mauldin adopts their suggestions]

Marc outlined to me their thoughts on reforming the tax code. I read the chapter in the book on reforms, and like it better than anything else I have seen.

What they suggest is to tax consumption with a 20% Value Added Tax (VAT). There would be no taxes for incomes under $ 100,000. None. No Social Security. No Medicare. If you make less than $ 100,000 you pay nothing.

All income over $ 100,000 is taxed at 20%, no matter what the source. No capital gains rate or dividend break. I assume that also means no municipal bond exemptions. No exemptions for anything. Every last tax expenditure goes away. Corporate tax rates would be 20%, and again I assume no exemptions. If you make a profit, you pay taxes.

They also note that their proposal was revenue-neutral in 2007, and included a $ 2,000 per child tax credit. Every worker would get an approximate 7.5% pay raise from the removing of Social Security and Medicare taxes. While businesses would also get that same tax break, they would have to pay a VAT on salaries, which would be an increase in cost. Welfare, the social safety net, and health care would all be funded.

One can adjust the levels of both the VAT and income taxes to match the desired level of government spending. I might prefer less, but that is not the point here. Match these taxes (along with the normal excise taxes) with entitlement reform, a properly structured health-care system, and some cuts in other areas, and you are close to a balanced budget.

Politically Feasible – Not

For starters, Mauldin’s proposal immediately violates requirement number one.

The proposal is not close to being politically feasible.  Even it it was politically feasible, it would be a horrendous idea. To see why let’s start with a look at spending.

Military Spending

Military spending may not be the biggest problem, but it certainly is a very big problem.

Indeed the US spends as much as the next 14 nations combined.

Defense Outlays

The above chart is from Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire by Jeffrey Gundlach

Warmongers (basically Republicans, Democrats, and President Obama with a few exceptions like Ron Paul) like to point out that defense spending is shrinking as percentage of the budget.

However, anyone with any common sense will point out a needless rise from $ 300 billion to close to $ 800 billion, now projected to be around $ 700 billion. This happened because of inane wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

Now the warmongers are hell bent on starting a war with Iran even though the price of oil is soaring and Israeli Intelligence Concludes “No Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program”

What If?

What if we could roll back the hands of time to when Bush was trumping up complete nonsense about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and make a change. The change I want to make is to have in place a balanced budget amendment that allows no exceptions.

You want more spending, then you either cut spending elsewhere or raise taxes.

Would Republicans have been so gung-ho about starting that war? If they did start it, would the public have stood for all the tax increases to pay for it?

What if we could roll back military spending to 2003 levels? Why is that impossible?

Note that the US has troops in 140 countries. Does the UDS need troops in ANY country but the US? I suggest, as does Ron Paul, as would any true constitutionalist conservative, the answer is no.

Defense vs. Healthcare

Defense is a problem, but Healthcare is an even bigger problem.

Mauldin pointed out “disability payments are now running $ 200 billion a year and growing rapidly”. I pointed out the same thing in Disability Fraud Holds Down Unemployment Rate; Jobless Disability Claims Hit Record $ 200B in January.

Before we start raising taxes, don’t you think we ought to cut out the fraud?

And what about Medicare fraud? What about Medicaid fraud? What about Food Stamps?

Economic Insanity from Gingrich

Please consider Economic Insanity from Gingrich on Marijuana Use: Life imprisonment With No Parole; Who Benefits from War on Drugs? Big-Brother Expansionist Ideas: Gingrich Proposes “Free Radios” for Everyone in Cuba!

Yes, Gingrich actually proposed “Free Radios” for Everyone in Cuba. He also proposed drug testing for food stamp recipients. I had three questions for Gingrich.

Three Questions for Gingrich

1. How much will it cost to administer drug tests to everyone getting a government subsidy?
2. How much more chipping away at states’ rights does Gingrich want?
3. How can this proponent of big government even call himself a Republican?

See how easy it is for even Republicans to propose complete nonsense? Both parties will keep doing the same thing if we blindly follow Mauldin’s guide of raising the VAT to meet expenditures.

Mish Food Stamp Proposal

When it comes to food stamps I have a far better set of ideas than Gingrich’s drug testing proposal.

• Do not let those on food stamps buy frozen pizza, potato chips, snacks of any kind, soft drinks, etc.
• Explicitly limit food stamp users to generic (store brand vs. name brand) dried beans, rice, peanut butter, pasta, canned vegetables, canned soup, soda crackers, fresh vegetables, fresh fruit, frozen (not bottled) juice, poultry, ground beef, chuck steak, bread, cheese, powdered milk, eggs, margarine, and general baking goods (flour, sugar, spices).
• Calculate a healthy diet based on current prices, number in the family, ages of recipients, and base food stamps allotments on that diet.

My proposal will not only lower the cost of the food stamp program, healthy diets would lower Medicaid and Medicare costs as well. Moreover my proposal would give people a strong incentive to get off the food stamp program without intrusive, costly big-brother ideas like drug testing which cannot possibly work for the simple reason that anyone who fails will steal to get food rather than starve. Also note that Gingrich’s proposal would harm innocent kids on the program. My idea would help them nutritionally.

Corruption of America

Porter Stansbury wrote a tremendous article on The Corruption of America and how public unions are at the center of it.

It has now been almost 50 years since the start of the War on Poverty, President Lyndon Johnson’s program to radically increase domestic welfare spending. These programs and their various spinoffs have been at the center of Democratic politics ever since. In fact, if you compare speeches about these programs from the mid-1960s until today, you will find the verbiage never changes. Obama is merely echoing the same calls for “social justice” that Robert Kennedy used in his ill-fated 1968 campaign for president.

But besides the soaring rhetoric, besides the promise of a “chicken in every pot,” what have these programs actually achieved? The wholesale destruction of urban communities across America, communities that are overwhelmingly African American. If the intention of these programs had been to destroy black communities, you could have hardly done more damage than the last 50 years of Democratic policy.

I don’t think most Americans realize how dangerous these communities have become or the toll they take on our country as a whole. That’s primarily because talking about this problem is seen as racist. That’s complete nonsense. The victims of these policies are primarily black people. Trying to help them restore dignity and independence to their communities isn’t a racist goal. It’s humanitarian.

In Detroit, only 27% of the black male students in the school system graduate from high school. This is not a racial problem: Only 19% of the white male students graduate from those same schools. What’s causing this problem? A complete breakdown of society. When communities can no longer teach their children the most basic academic skills, such as reading, math, history, literature, and economics… what future can we expect? And what kind of society do you expect after several generations of total ignorance?

How did this all happen? How did we end up with expensive schools that can’t teach? How did we end up with young mothers who aren’t married? How did we end up with entire generations of people who won’t – and probably can’t – work in the labor force? How did we end up with a skyrocketing prison population? The prison population in America has soared from less than half a million people in 1980 to more than 2.5 million people today. More than 7 million adults are in prison or on parole in the United States. We have an incarceration rate that’s seven times higher than any other industrialized nation.

Let’s ask the most basic question: What has the gigantic increase in welfare spending and education spending done for the underclass of America?

The article is lengthy and it starts out slowly but quickly picks up. At times Stansbury uses some politically incorrect language that may appear racial. It’s not. He attacks Republicans and Democrats alike, whites and blacks alike. He talks about the corruption of unions and the corruption of corporations. Everyone would be well served to read the entire article.

Golden State on road to Greece, by way of Detroit

Stansbury touched on Detroit in his article and so did the Orange County Register in an editorial Golden State on road to Greece, by way of Detroit

California’s tax burden, according to the Tax Foundation, is heavy. The Register reported that per-person state and local taxes, fees, licenses and “intergovernmental revenue” amount to $ 8,634, ranking California 13th-highest among the states. California businesses fare worse, the Tax Foundation said, ranking 48th in tax climate, based on corporate, income, sales, property and unemployment insurance taxes.

What’s unsaid is the effect on individuals of extremely high corporate taxes. Companies not driven out of state or out of business are less likely to hire or expand, more likely to contract and struggle to provide for current employees.

But high taxes are needed to pay for leftist policies that interject government into private life, while heaping generous benefits on government workers who do the interjecting. Progressives, as they like to call themselves, seem oblivious to Big Government’s damage.

We have a glimpse of where this leads. It’s called Detroit.

Detroit is where “all the major economic planks of the statist or ‘progressive’ platform have been enacted,” writes Jarrett Skorup of the Mackinac Center. “A ‘living wage’ ordinance, far above the federal minimum wage, for all public employees and private contractors. A school system that spends significantly more per pupil than the national average. A powerful school employee union that militantly defends the exceptional pay, benefits and job security it has won for its members. Other government employee unions that do the same for their members. A tax system that aggressively redistributes income from businesses and the wealthy to the poor and to government bureaucracies.”

Sound like California? What has all this done for Detroit, “dubbed the most liberal city in America”? Detroit in 1950 was America’s wealthiest city on a per capita income basis. Today it’s the second-poorest major city.

“[I]t is striking that the decline in per capita income is exactly what classical economists predict would occur when wage controls are imposed and taxes are increased,” Skorup writes.

Despite progressivism’s poisoned fruits on display, what does California do? Recent headlines trumpeted proposed tax increases of billions, additional “rights” for state government workers and clamoring for more tax subsidies for education and health care and, let us not forget, Gov. Jerry Brown’s desire to squander billions on a high-speed train no serious analyst says can operate profitably, if it can even be built for its estimated $ 98.5 billion.

Still Like That VAT Idea?

Anyone still like that VAT idea? If so expects states like California and Illinois to embrace it. Expect every public union in the country to be clamoring for more tax hikes to support more wage hikes.

Heck, they already are, even before a VAT. On February 17, the Chicago Tribune reported Chicago teachers asking for 30% raises over next 2 years.

Is that insane or is that insane? The only way to stop such insanity is by ending collective bargaining of public unions, scrapping Davis Bacon and all prevailing wage laws, and instituting national right to work laws.

Desired Level of Government Spending

Instead of blindly raising taxes, I propose we take a serious look at every government program and decide what is really needed. Student aid is another program of negative benefit. Such aid drives up the cost of school and makes debt slaves out of some kids for life. The program needs to be scrapped entirely.

Returning to Mauldin’s thesis that any proposal must be politically feasible, spending cuts alone will not fly.

However, Republicans need to demand a lot in return for any necessary tax hikes. As a compromise, I would accept Some amount of tax hikes in return for scrapping Davis Bacon, ending all prevailing wage laws, and instituting national right to work laws.

Those actions will help cities and states get back on their feet. But we also need pension reform, welfare reform, drug imports from Canada,  and a host of other items including tax reform.

I am against a VAT completely. And I certainly do not like exempting the first $ 100,000 because the tax burden would then fall only on the middle class.

Instead of a VAT, and in order to be fair to everyone, a sales tax that excludes food, shelter, medicine, and perhaps clothing is the way to go. Everyone gets the same break so the proposal is fair. However, the poor spend nearly all their money on food, shelter, medicine, and clothing, so they benefit proportionally speaking.

A national sales tax is easy to collect, hard to avoid, and promotes saving over consumption, all of which are very good things. Perhaps some combination of income tax and national sales tax is the way to go, but only after eliminating fraud and unnecessary spending.

In this regard, a very good place to start would be with Ron Paul’s proposed cuts.

The cardinal rule of taxes is legislators will spend every dime collected and then some so a definite control is needed. I propose a balanced budget amendment to stop both parties from doing just that.

Legal Bribery

The above actions are a good start but corporations and unions like to buy votes. Lobbyists write our legislation and they are often the only ones who really know what is in the bills and why. Nancy Pelosi famously remarked “we have to pass the health care bill to see what’s in it”. Indeed. But the lobbyists knew. They read every line of it.

As long as public unions, corporations, and lobbyists can bribe legislators with campaign contributions, then bills are going to be written by public unions, corporations, and lobbyists.

The result is the worst legislation (from a taxpayer perspective) that money can buy. Proof is easy to find. There are 72,536 Pages of Tax Code.

Nearly all those pages of code exist because some corporate or union sponsor made campaign contributions to some member of Congress who piled on page after page of tax code.

My proposal to end collective bargaining of public unions and institute right to work laws will fix one of the problems, but something still needs to be done about corporate campaign bribery. I am open to ideas.

Correct Approach

The correct approach is not Obama’s, not Romney’s, and not Mauldin’s.

Three Step Approach

• First, there are numerous structural problems and fraud items as noted above that should be fixed as part of a compromise package.
• Then before deciding on the amount of tax, we need to take a serious look at Ron Paul’s proposals to see what we can get rid of. 
•  Then tax code needs to be simplified in a fair way, as would my national sales tax idea exempting food, medicine,  and clothes (Perhaps a combination sales tax and income tax).

Unfortunately that still is not enough. Congress is highly unlikely to do this on its own. We need a presidential leader willing to make tough choices, not just say he is willing to make tough choices.

Obama has clearly failed. By their pathetic proposals to date, so will Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum.

And so here we are, careening towards the 2012 elections with a guaranteed loser as a sitting president, and unless Ron Paul pulls off a miracle, a set of fatally flawed candidates with fatally flawed proposals on what to do about the deficit on the Republican side as well.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Jim:
I am also gluten intolerant and I found out much in the same way and the previous writer.  In addition the information provided I would like to point out potatoes.  They can be bought in 50 pounds bags and stored in a root cellar for most of the winter.

We buy two 50 pound bags in the fall that last us until late spring.  We also grow 18 different varieties of potatoes and save and grow them from seed each spring.  That way we have the knowledge and ability to ramp up our own potato production in case we couldn’t buy them from the farm down the road.

As for bulk oats they should be avoided by people with celiac disease unless they are certified gluten free.  Growing a field of oats without wheat contamination is a difficult and costly process.  Ordinary bulk oats are contaminated with wheat.  After three days of one bowl of bulk oats a day, my intensities let me know that there is gluten in there.  Store what you eat, eat what you store. – Dan in Upstate New York

JWR;
This posting has come at an opportune time for me. My daughter-in-law has celiac. That combined with the fact that she is a vegetarian has left me with few options for stocking foods that she can eat.  She has to be wheat free and gluten free. You and poster are correct about separate grinders etc. When they come to visit, she must use a different stick of butter since even the touching the our bread can trigger a reaction.  We always have to read the label because wheat is used as a filler and thickener in many products, pasta sauce, candy and even in toothpaste. She does eat eggs and cheese. So fortunately our little flock can feed her and I am planning to get a milk goat. 
 
Thank you for a great blog and a “gathering place” for like-minded individuals. – Linda U.

James Wesley:
As a thirty-year survivalist I had a couple years of food storage when I married my wife a few years ago who has celiac disease.  While we do not maintain a gluten-free kitchen as I enjoy the occasional ‘normal’ pizza, cookie, or sandwich, I made the decision to convert my food storage to all gluten-free because the galley in the retreat is much smaller and we cannot assure contamination will not occur there like we can at home. I drove my truck to the food cooperative in a neighboring state and purchased 800 additional pounds of corn, buckwheat, quinoa, and amaranth which I processed in 5 gallon buckets according to your directions in How To Survive the End of the World as We Know It.  I also ordered a Country Living Grain Mill because they will test it with rice at the factory instead of wheat to prevent contamination and the optional bean auger is perfectly suited for popcorn which I can get inexpensively in 25# bags at the local warehouse club. I have started storing and using xanthan gum which attempts to hold baked goods together the way the gluten does in baked goods containing wheat.

After sorting out and setting aside my wheat and other glutenous provisions, I contacted some local preppers and survivalists and sold my entire stock of these items for the bargain price of $ 5 per #10 can.  My wife is very good about making me gluten-full foods I enjoy.  For example, this evening we both had biscuits and gravy, but mine were ‘normal’ while hers were made with alternative flour.  Grocery stores are keeping more gluten-free products and a plethora of recipes are available all over the Internet for those who cook everything from scratch.  I find that every year I develop more and more taste for gluten-free products.  I compare it to going from whole milk to 1%.  One might start by transitioning to 2% before moving to 1% or skim. 

The two biggest problems I have encounters thus far are that I can no longer store TVP (Textured Vegetable Protein) which is also known as soy meat because they list wheat as one of the ingredients and it will be difficult to share meals with those in our retreat group because their food storage and meal planning is highly dependent upon wheat products.  Prudent planning has overcome these obstacles and I feel I am no less prepared now than I was before I purged gluten from my food storage. - Allen C.    

James,
I enjoyed the article by Geoff in Kentucky. Having a daughter recently diagnosed with Celiac Disease I can sympathize with him. The simple act of grocery shopping took three time longer when we first started. We’re back to normal now and prepare both gluten containing and gluten free meals and storage. One helpful tip I’d like to pass along is an iPhone/iPad app called "Is that gluten free?" by Midlife Crisis Apps. I don’t recall what it cost us but the fee was reasonable and has more than paid for itself in time and frustration. You can search by brand or ingredient. It even covers many local brands.

All the best! – South Florida Gal

So, first a quick rundown on my family circumstances.  I am a lawyer by training.  My spouse, a former teacher, is midway through dental school.  We own a (mortgaged) home in the Virginia suburbs of a large city.  My spouse is from a western state, having grown up around guns, hunting, fishing, camping, hiking, etc.  By contrast, I grew up in a small city, in a house without guns.  I was in the Cub Scouts for a few years, but various other interests took over and I never got to do the majority of the important skill-building that being in the Boy Scouts allows.  I was, however, a varsity athlete in high school and college, as was my spouse, and we still retain some of the drive toward fitness that preparedness requires.  I am a relatively recent convert to the prepping mindset, thanks in large part, surprisingly, to my dad.  Several years ago, he was caught out, overnight, on a major highway because of a bad tractor-trailer accident in horrendous weather.  He had nothing in the car to eat, or to keep warm.  Luckily, he was able to pull onto the shoulder and drive around cars until he reached a nearby exit, where there was a gas station on a back road, which was covered in ice.  He couldn’t drive home, but the gas station allowed him to eat junk food and to keep warm without completely depleting his gas on the road.  He also had his cell phone (no car charger, though), and between us, we coordinated with his neighbors to feed the dog, etc., while he was away.  He was lucky, and he began immediately afterward to stockpile food at the house, keep needed items in the car, and generally to begin preparing for various minimal disaster scenarios.  His experience impacted me, as well, and we began talking about what we might do in the event something serious happened, creating a loose framework of family responses to various emergencies.

My Own Planning
I began to research and came across ww.survivalblog.com, which I consider to be the finest resource available for relevant information on the topic of prepping.  After reading up on the admittedly overwhelming range of considerations that a complete approach to prepping requires, I started planning.  As the literature says to do, I first determined which scenarios I thought were most likely to occur, and decided what we could do on our meager budget (most lawyers these days work in smaller firms or in solo practices and do not make anywhere near what the general public is led to believe) to prepare.  Knowing how my wife thinks, and thinking that it might be counterproductive if I just brought the whole thing up out of nowhere, I began discussing prepping with her slowly.  We had a couple of conversations, and I suggested a few books (S.M. Stirling’s Dies the Fire and William R. Forstchen’s One
Second After are two that I mentioned.)  In hindsight, I shouldn’t have been so cautious, as she was actually very receptive to the idea of being prepared for different eventualities.  However, given the demands of her job at the time and her application process to dental school, virtually all of the planning and decision-making fell to me.

We already had one handgun and 100 rounds of ammunition due to a previous situation with a crazy neighbor, but that was all we started with.  We didn’t feel that compelled to increase either the number of guns or the number of rounds we stockpiled because we both worked within a mile of our home, and we decided that our priorities for preparing actually first lay with making sure we had enough to eat.  Over time, we stockpiled several months of food and water at the house, my wife got a cell phone (which she hated at first), and I started planning for both bug-out and bug-in situations.  I began building a bug-out bag for each of us. We bought an all-wheel drive vehicle.  We started thinking about what we would do with our pets if we had to leave the house.  My wife received a prestigious military scholarship that paid for the vast majority of her expensive tuition and provided a small stipend while she is in school.  Everything was coming together, if slowly.

Everything Changes
Then everything changed.  About 18 months ago, I got laid off because of the combination of the sheer number of attorneys in town in my particular practice area and the dwindling number of paying clients. Due to the horrendous job market for attorneys, I had to take a job out of town, about 150 miles away.  My wife stayed behind in our house.  We did this to allow her to complete the dental school program she was in. 
We talked at length before we made this decision, focusing mainly on the risks and benefits of living apart.  Our plan was (and is) that I should have an apartment near my job where I stay during the week, and I come home to our house on the weekends.  The salary at my new job is nearly double what I was making before, and even accounting for the additional expense of gas and of an apartment in another city, we can still afford to make substantial payments toward eliminating our credit card debt.  We have paid off two credit cards, and are moving quickly toward being completely free of credit card debt.  We only have one small car payment, which is the next target after the credit card debt is gone.  Her dental school education is supremely important, not only because it’s what she has dreamed for years of doing, but because being a dentist has a certain value all its own.  Reading any of the survival fiction available, it’s a common (and reasonable) theme that, in a SHTF scenario, in communities where resources are scarce, only those who can contribute will be welcome.  As a stopgap measure, then, her dental skills may become very useful.

But there was an obvious complication.  All of my careful planning and preparing had resulted in plans we could no longer really use.  Everything was different, so I had to go back to the drawing board.

Implementing Changes
We had to re-think everything.  First, we decided that protection was now of primary importance.  Having only one handgun between us was not enough, not if I was going to be living somewhere out of town and driving 150 miles, one way.  Let me say now that my wife is an excellent shot, much better than I am, in fact.  This is to be expected because she has been shooting since she was a young child (the first gun she ever shot was a .357 Magnum – and that is a really funny story that I won’t go into here).  Her father was an excellent teacher.  But we couldn’t very well do much with one handgun between us.  So we bought my wife a Glock pistol, which she loves.  Then, I bought a Kel-Tec PF9, really for concealed carry (I already had my CCW License), because my other handgun was too big to carry (a Taurus Millennium Pro).  I also got a great deal on a Mossberg shotgun to keep at the house.  I also began to stockpile ammunition.  We do not live in a place where a large-caliber rifle is going to do much good, but in the event of a SHTF situation, I do have a slingshot for squirrels and a .22 rifle is next on the purchase list. Those might help for a few critical days if we decide to bug in, and could be good on the road either as protection or for hunting.  The upshot of all of this is that I now am able to carry a gun plus keep a spare in my B.O.B. at all times.  My wife is much better able to defend the house if she needs to because she has her own handgun (for carry) and a shotgun for last-ditch protection at home.  We also now have made a commitment to regular range training and I am looking into additional personal defense training.  In one sense, then, making this drastic life decision forced us to drastically improve our defense capability. Hunting is another story, but our increased budget has allowed us to stockpile more food.

In many other ways, though, we were back at square one.  For example, what do we do if and when telephone service is not available?  Before, when we were living together and working close to our home, this wasn’t a terribly important consideration.  Now, living 150 miles apart most of the week, it’s crucial.  Presently, we rely heavily on cell phones, email and Skype to communicate during the week. If the satellites are down, and the roads are impassable for any reason, how do we coordinate our movements?  The only viable answer to that question is greater planning and practice during our limited time together so that we can trust in the plans we have made. 

But the considerations are myriad. 
Bugging-in is relatively simple, but do we plan on my coming back home first before we bug out together?  If we do, then we will have to allow for a maximum of three weeks before she executes any fail-safe bug out plan.  In the event of road closures, hiking the full 150 miles across two interstates and many other, smaller highways will take at least two weeks, and probably closer to three.  In the meantime, will it be safe at the house?  If not, where do we go?  How do we decide whether or not it’s safe for her to remain at the house?  How does she communicate her decision?  What is the secondary meet-up point if she has to leave?  How long will she stay?

We had to pay closer attention to mapping my route home.  Virginia provides free road maps upon request, both of the major roads and the so-called “scenic” roads, which may be useful in mapping alternative routes along more rural properties.

The purpose and contents of my B.O.B. also had to change.  Rather than 72 hours, I had to plan for several weeks.  A larger bag, a tarp/tent, extra food, means of getting more food, a more robust and capable water filter, etc.  Because of the additional gear, the weight of the bag increased, and so versatility of various items also had to increase.  Her B.O.B. also had to change.  Honestly, we’re still working out how to deal with pets and the additional pet food, etc., but the purpose of her B.O.B. is to sustain her in traveling to our pre-arranged location, where we have cached a number of additional supplies. Ultimately, and tragically, the hard truth is that we may have to leave beloved pets behind.  Also, with my wife obligated in the military when she graduates, we will likely be moving some distance away while she is serving.  Caching, then, is only a temporary solution to a larger problem, and one which we will have to solve at least a couple more times in the near future.

Our new situation presented us with smaller considerations also.  Where I work, I live only several blocks from my office, in a small apartment.  However, I have no garage parking.  I do have a dedicated parking space at work where, if I wanted, I could leave my car 24 hours a day and walk to and from work.  However, the neighborhood near the office is not great, so I normally park at night on the street near my apartment (the few blocks make a big difference).  I still don’t want to leave my B.O.B. (and the loaded gun inside it) in the car overnight, so I generally leave the bag in my apartment unless I know I am driving some distance.  In terms of OPSEC, I have had to make a hard choice, since it cannot have escaped notice that, occasionally, I move a large, obvious hiking/camping bag to and from the car and the apartment without any apparent reason.  I’m still working on how to make that transition less obvious while maintaining the amount of gear I will need in my B.O.B.  However, I have done too much work and spent too much money to have the B.O.B. stolen, and as a responsible gun owner, I cannot in good conscience leave the gun in a car on the street to be so easily stolen by thieves.

Finally, our long-term plans have had to be more fluid.  Previously, we had planned eventually to purchase land and build a home in a rural area in Virginia.  The uncertainty of my wife’s eventual posting, however, has delayed that a bit.  We do know that we would like to come back to Virginia after she is done with the military, but that may also change.  At the same time, the longer we wait, the more risk we take in not having our retreat available. 

Acquiring New Skills
Not being at home during the week, I do have some time to seek to acquire new skills to supplement my formal education, which would be all but useless in a SHTF situation.  I have time to go the gym and am improving my fitness.  Also, I am currently looking for defensive shooting classes in the area, and with the number of hiking trails around, I have the opportunity to spend some time every week hiking with my pack to begin building up endurance in the event that I have to walk home.  I am reading about foraging for edible plants and about the wildlife in the area.  Living in the apartment, I have no room to practice gardening, etc., but I feel I am making the best of my situation.
We also have a trip planned for later this year to the Pacific Northwest, to my wife’s parents’ house, where I will be spending time with her dad in order to learn some of the hunting, tracking and fishing skills I lack.

The Bottom Line
The bottom line is that the major change we were forced to make in our lives has had both benefits and massive complications.  It has made us (and allowed us financially to) make some immediate improvements in our preparations, but in general, it has made us revisit our plans and drastically change them to suit our new circumstances.  On the bright side, knowing that our living situation will change in the future, we now have the experience of revisiting and changing our plans to adapt to our new circumstances.

SurvivalBlog remains a crucial resource for me, and I have spent hours looking through the archives to gain insight into ways to handle our situation.  Thanks to SurvivalBlog’s varied topics of discussion, I feel I have a much better idea of what questions to ask when I am thinking about making or changing plans.  Thank you, Mr. Rawles, for your prescience and insight.  Keep up the good work!