Presidential Election Gazette

Tim Pawlenty Drops Out, Bachmann Wins Poll

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Sun, 14 Aug 2011 16:06:00 +0000

The Ames Straw Poll, one of the most important first tests for candidates from Iowa, happened yesterday and Michele Bachmann of Minnesota won the poll with Ron Paul finishing second. Tim Pawlenty finished third and announced today that he will no longer be campaigning for the 2012 election, citing that he needed a gain in momentum from the straw poll. Most likely, people at the Pawlenty campaign analyzed the situation and realized that without a boost at the poll yesterday, they no longer had a chance. Pawlenty is the first candidate to leave the race.

In other news, Rick Perry of Texas announced his candidacy this weekend; Perry is expected to shake things up a bit. It is unknown exactly who Pawlenty's absence will help, but it will probably give Michele Bachmann some ground since they both were of the same state.

Iowa GOP Debate Tonight

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 19:05:00 +0000

Iowa will host the second GOP Presidential debate of the season tonight -- we will have live coverage inside of this post beginning at 9pm -- email viewers/feed viewers, go to http://www.electiongazette.com at 9pm tonight....we'll be doing it via Twitter.

http://twitter.com/#!/tuckerb34

Rudy Giuliani and Election 2012: Can he do it?

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Sun, 07 Aug 2011 20:49:00 +0000

Rudy Giuliani was the pilot of a moderately successful campaign in 2008, but mistakes and various setbacks as a result of decisions his campaign and he personally made resulted in a loss for the nomination. Now, the former Mayor of New York City's name is being thrown around again in political circles. In polling, Gallup shows that (http://www.gallup.com/poll/148790/Republicans-Ratings-2012-GOP-Contenders-Steady-July.aspx) he has a large amount of recognition and popularity, which are both important for getting a strong base and momentum going into the primary season.

There are still some problems that could hurt him going into the process, with Politico (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/59164.html) reporting that although he is considering a run, he still owes 3 million dollars from is 2008 election campaign. Politico also reported that he is focusing on a New Hampshire strategy going into the election.

In conclusion, Giuliani seems to be testing things out, but his entry would be late. The question is whether or not the late entry can be offset by his strong recognition for a potential base in key early states.

Media and Campaign Coverage

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Sun, 07 Aug 2011 00:44:00 +0000

We've re-done the layout, set-up, and more of the blog and overall site with the new addition of a 2012 candidates page and an about/contact us page, and now we're back to blogging for the 2012 election season. This is our new occasional series, Media and the Campaign Trail.

I think it is an appropriate time to talk about about media and how they influence presidential campaigns and the popularity of a candidate. I would assert that the media is one of the most important factors in how a candidate ends up doing in an election.

The way in which a candidate is presented on the news channels the night after a full day of debate, campaigning, and more can change the perspective we have of the candidate. So, think about this: if we actually were with the candidate all day at the event, we would have a completely different perspective of the candidate's interactions, beyond the quick quotes and 30 second bylines that most news networks do. So, is this good or bad for us and the politics? I'd take the stance that it is inevitable yet bad.

The problem is that the media and us will always see the candidate in this way because that is the nature of reporting in the 21st century. Candidates on the campaign trail are normally covered by a team of reporters that travel in the candidate's official vehicle(s). If these candidates would speak about their daily experiences and how life actually is living with the candidates, in my opinion the quality of reporting would be improved. However, even if a candidate spends 8 hours in direct sight of the candidate, that may only translate to a minute report on the evening news. I isolate a couple of causes of this:
1. The 24-hour cycle: news agencies want something quick and easy
2. Interest: some people just aren't interested in going in-depth on candidates

So, where does the media go from here? In the 2012 election season, we will surely see all new types of gizmos and gadgets, just as we did in 2008. But will this new technology make reporting more intimate, or just more filled with numbers and technology? Only time will tell that, and we'll continue to cover this.

GOP Debate Monday

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 22:14:00 +0000

Monday will hold the first major GOP debate, with the frontrunners in the polls as well as some lesser-known candidates. The candidates will battle it out at 8pm from Manchester, New Hampshire. New Hampshire, as many know, is the second primary or caucus in the order. This means that it is a crucial state for the momentum of the candidates (more momentum after winning Iowa or New Hampshire means more money, more support, and more more money means more ads, etc. which spills over to all aspects of a campaign). The candidates that will be participating are Romney, Cain, Pawlenty, Bachmann, Paul, AND Gingrich. Gingrich has been in the news for all the wrong reasons for his sake this week, as he has had a large numbers of his senior staff drop out from his campaign, which hints at major problems within the Gingrich campaign as of now.

It will be interesting to see the results of this debate and the events that happen afterword. This is a chance for many of the candidates to emerge in the national spotlight. It also provides a time for the people of New Hampshire and the country as a whole to hear the more specifics about the respective plans of the candidates, getting past the glittering generalities and generic statements from them that many of us see each day on the news.

This Week: 6/4-6/11/Report on this Week

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 15:09:00 +0000

First, I've been out of town so this This Week post will cover this week through Saturday and assess the field, and the next This Week post will look ahead to the events scheduled for next week.

The race for 2012 has been heating up this week, and the polling and campaigning gets into full swing. We're going to look at each major candidate and report so far on their respective progress. *Ordered from high to low in positive intensity scoring from Gallup.

Herman Cain: Cain has been doing a TV blitz in the past couple days, appearing on various shows including spending a large amount of time with Glenn Beck on FOX News yesterday. He's been running into more trouble on his previous comments in a question/answer session from Iowa where he discussed Sharia Law and how he would not put someone in his potential Cabinet or staff that was a Muslim without first testing on whether or not they are loyal to the Constitution. To many, this is a hugely controversial comment and Cain is going to have to work hard at fixing this image problem. He also made a comment last night about how he would only sign 3-page bills, but retracted that statement: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20070223-503544.html. Overall, Cain's recognition is rising and his positive intensity is up, but he is seemingly making some controversial statements that could hurt him.

Michele Bachmann: Bachmann hasn't announced anything yet, but this article makes it look as though she will pretty soon: http://articles.nydailynews.com/2011-06-02/news/29631691_1_michele-bachmann-tea-party-caucus-union-response. Some say Bachmann may be able to shake up the GOP field with her Tea Party influence, but there has not been a lot about her policy goals and choices as of yet.

Mitt Romney: Romney, who remains the most developed competitor for the GOP nomination. He's getting his train going and his website is starting to look more like Obama's with lots of ways to get involved, etc: http://www.mittromney.com/?gclid=CO_G5O6KqakCFcXr7QodRSrHKw. CNN also has reported that Romney is a target of the DNC (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/06/09/dnc-squares-off-with-romney/) which can be interpreted as the DNC seeing him as their biggest threat thus far.

Tim Pawlenty: Pawlenty has gone straight to the economy issue and issued a plan just days ago discussing what he would do about the American economy. The AJC also reported that this appeal can be carried over into the debate Monday night for him to get more recognition: http://blogs.ajc.com/kyle-wingfield/2011/06/09/pawlenty-still-waging-serious-campaign-under-the-radar/?cxntfid=blogs_kyle_wingfield.

Sarah Palin: Palin is still conducting her One Nation bus tour and ran once again into hot water when she made what many say are historically inaccurate comments about Paul Revere. I read an article about Palin yesterday from one author that believes Palin took a wrong path from the good things she did as Governor of Alaska -- I do recommend it, it brought many things to light that I didn't realize before: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/print/2011/06/the-tragedy-of-sarah-palin/8492/. The question of whether or not she can resolve the "tragedy" the author talks about still lingers.

And we're looking at the progress of:
Barack Obama: Obama's job approval from Gallup is down this week but just 1-2 points, to 49% approving of his job. Obama isn't focusing on the campaign (his staff is, with their website and their emails that often arrive in the inboxes of an army of supporters), but the main issues. It is hard to tell what the Obama campaign wants to look for in their evaluation of the GOP field, but the DNC's shots at Romney suggests that he is a formidable opponent in the eyes of the Dems.

This Week: 5/21-28/2011

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Sat, 28 May 2011 19:20:00 +0000

We're starting a new weekly post where we will tie the news of the week together into a unique format, analyzing not just the small stories but trying to put things together into a larger picture. This will involve a review of some articles, as well as some factors externally to the elections that may influence the results. We will also name a "winner" of the week to see which candidate is making the most progress in the GOP.

The Dems
President Obama has begun re-assembling his 2008 network in the last couple of months, a network with grassroots around the country that made a huge difference. The Obama campaign has also began their fundraising push again for 2012. In 2008, they relied more on smaller donors (more volume, but the people were giving much less than other candidates) because of their grassroots system. The campaign released a video yesterday that details strategy (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCa2OI2Qioc&feature=player_embedded). At first glance, the Obama campaign looks like a well-oiled machine getting ready for the elections. Obama's current organization is way ahead of any of the GOP candidates because they have these public strategies and ways to get involved. This is something that the Republicans will have to overcome quickly in order to get ahead when the primaries start. These types of networks where there are large amounts of average citizens involved gives the Obama campaign momentum going into Iowa and New Hampshire.

Interesting Fact of the Week for the Dems
There was some talk that Hillary Clinton would replace Vice President Joe Biden as the VP candidate in 2012, and there is now very minimal risk of this happening, considering "Obama (campaign symbol)" Biden is listed on the website.

The GOP
This seems to be the time where many of the Republicans are either jumping in or getting out of the election. Some seem to be in the middle, including Sarah Palin, who is launching a bus tour around various states as well as a documentary on her experiences in politics mostly in Alaska. The latest Gallup polling information indicates that the field Herman Cain currently has the highest positive intensity score (strongly favor minus strongly unfavor) but still lags with 33% name recognition. Michelle Bachmann and Sarah Palin have the next highest positive intensity (although neither of the two women have announced candidacy). Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty lead the class of people with favorable rankings, tied with Jon Huntsman who has not decided whether or not to run. All 3 of them are at 56% favoring. Newt Gingrich had 24% of people say he was unfavorable, leading.

So, what does this all mean? It means that Mitt Romney remains the front-runner at this point, but with a boost for some other candidates, it could be a close race. However, experience and a base is crucial, and Romney is ahead in that respect. The bottom line? There's still time for it to go either way, but Romney will not be hurting in the near future.

The GOP Winner this Week:
Herman Cain takes the win this week, with a boost up in the polls and a continuation of the lead in positive intensity. Cain has had the best launch so far, but he has a long way to catch up to Mitt Romney. He has a stronger support of Tea Part values, and some say Sarah Palin jumping into the race could hurt him. Cain himself commented on Fox News about this: http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2011/05/27/herman-cain-not-worried-about-sarah-palin-warns-possible-double-dip-recession.

Next Week
This coming week will yield more clues as to the strength of the GOP, as Obama sits back and is most likely comfortable in his planning. We will also see an official announcement June 2nd from Mitt Romney.

News Alert: Mitt Romney will Run for President

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Fri, 27 May 2011 00:05:00 +0000

News outlets have reported tonight that Mitt Romney of Massachusetts will announce his candidacy for President on June 2nd. He will do this in a speech in New Hampshire. If you did not know already, New Hampshire is the 1st primary (2nd election in the primaries/caucuses after Iowa) and one of the key early states. Many of the first candidates will spend their time campaigning here.

We will have a report Saturday assessing the GOP field and how Obama is doing building back his Election 2008 connections across the country.

News Alert: Tim Pawlenty Announces Run

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Mon, 23 May 2011 00:52:00 +0000

This is a short news alert that will be expanded later:

Republican Tim Pawlenty has announced his candidcacy tonight, a day ahead of his first speech in Iowa. He joins a race of: Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, and Ron Paul (officially).

Check out the video here at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5i66q1f3M3w&feature=player_embedded and look for a more detailed post later.

Herman Cain Announcement

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Sun, 22 May 2011 02:25:00 +0000

I went to the Herman Cain announcement since it was in my home city of Atlanta. The announcement was held at Centennial Olympic Park which is downtown. Fittingly, the logo for the Cain campaign is now the torch, which is very intriguing because it represents his city of Atlanta, the ‘Olympic race’ for the Presidency, and more. There were 15,000 people as announced by Cain himself in attendance; however, this number may have been slightly lower considering some people probably reserved more spots than of the people they brought to the event.

The rally began on schedule or nearly so, around noon. There was a performance by a country singer named Krista Branch, who wrote many songs dealing with politics and more (http://www.kristabranch.com/music), some of which she performed and one which is featured in the official announcement video of Cain. After the invocation, another performance, and the Pledge of Allegiance, Cain himself took to the stage. His speaking style was loose yet energetic, and he did not use a teleprompter or even a copy of a speech (which was one way out of many in which he criticized President Obama). He basically covered the main points on his agenda and on his personal beliefs about politics and religion; however, he went deeper on certain issues in order to introduce policy ideas. One could say that the speech was more domestically focused, but there were many references to foreign policy. In a pre-empt to whether or not he had foreign policy experience, he defined what his more ‘common-sense’ solution to foreign policy, which launched into a time to criticize President Obama on his recent decision to announce that he believes Israel and that area of the world should return to its pre-1960’s borders. He proclaimed that this strategy is just throwing our allies under the bus, something he promised never to do as President.

Photo of Cain that I took today.

There is a long time left and many obstacles for Cain to overcome that some candidates are not facing currently. The main problem is his low name recognition, something that he will have to fix in order to be a viable candidate in major battleground primaries. If the message gets out, there will also be experience questions, so it will be interesting to see how the different elements develop over time. It was announced just tonight that Cain will appear on Mike Huckabee’s Fox News show, which may get his message out http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/55420.html). In the status quo, he seems to have potential, but faces problems from other GOP candidates in the primary. It is too early for us to be discussing what a potential Obama-Cain general election would look like. You can see Cain’s announcement video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHomZF3JGBg&feature=player_embedded that was played before he took the stage.

Herman Cain Announcement 2011 Pics

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Sat, 21 May 2011 20:58:00 +0000

Here are my pics from the 2012 rally for Herman Cain in Atlanta. He officially announced his candidacy, and we will have a full report tonight. I just wanted to get the pictures uploaded as fast as possible...Click on the photos for more full size/high resolution:

Polling: Taking A Look at Gallup's Data

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Wed, 18 May 2011 02:01:00 +0000

Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx) has been releasing some very good data for election 2012 and Obama. This polling data can help us sort through everything. If you want, search around on the Gallup website for their information, but we are going to break down the main stats here.

One of the best pieces of information is their interactive (http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx). Some key factors should be looked at to calculate who has the best chance, so the purpose of this post is to break down all of the factors and see who ends up having the best choice:

1. Generic Ballot: This is perhaps the simplest piece of information, and it details what would happen (generically) if the election were today. This information shows overall opinion, but it also may be skewed slightly because it takes into account a huge amount of data and factors. The main reason for this is that the GOP ballot is generic, so the person running will affect the outcome during the real election.

2. Recognition: This is an early (but not crucial, think back if you knew Obama in 2006 or early on) factor. The most recognized candidates/people are Trump*, Palin, and Huckabee* (which is interesting considering 2 of them aren't running for sure and the third may run). After that comes Gingrich and Romney. This is important early on for momentum, plus it is much easier for a person to vote for someone they have heard of in the past.

3. Favorable/Unfavorable: Gallup uses from strongly favorable to strongly unfavorable, but these two factors show the core of the people and how they feel. Romney, Huntsman, and Santorum are most favorable and Trump, Paul, and Gingrich are most unfavorable.

4. More Polarizing Numbers: Strongly favorable/unfavorable is a much more polarizing strategy, because it shows the candidate has strong opinions on each side. Huckabee*, Bachmann, and Cain are most strongly favorable. Trump*, Paul, and Gingrich are least favorable. It is worth mentioning that Sarah Palin is top 5 in both categories which does project her as a more polarizing figure (data shows that many either like her or hate her).

5. Positive Intensity: Maybe the best factor that Gallup uses -- Score= % Strongly Favorable minus % Strongly Unfavorable. Huckabee*, Cain, and Bachmann are ahead in this.

6. Ballot Support: Overall support, this hasn't been updated with some new data yet, but it will be important later.

7. Making Sense of All the Numbers: First, it is interesting to note that Huckabee influences this strongly, as him not running means that the data provided for him is no longer relevant. At the same time, it may show a sad portrait in the status quo for the GOP because they have lost a person who had a positive rating. The polarization factor is also important. In the primaries, it is important to appeal to a cross-section of voters in order to get undecided and more moderate voters. In the end, it seems to look like Romney is going to be the front-runner going in, with Palin as most recognized (if she runs). The data also shows that Herman Cain has some positive backing and support, and if he is supported on the ballot it will be an interesting situation.

*: These candidates aren't running so their data is in the polls but will no longer affect the elections directly.

Hopefully this provides a starting benchmark for the process -- the graph image is below (click for larger).

The Huckabee Factor

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Mon, 16 May 2011 21:26:00 +0000

The decision of Mike Huckabee not to run for the GOP nomination in 2012 leaves what some journalists have called a power vacuum inside the Republican party. As Obama gets his staff and supporters together for the Democratic run for the nomination, it seems as though some GOP candidates have been lagging behind in their final preparations.

Now, we look at Mike Huckabee's affect on the overall field:
1. Endorsements: Mike Huckabee is a very well-recognized name in politics and the news. As a winner of the 2008 Iowa Caucus, he will have some clout in the thoughts of voters, especially in Iowa, a crucial momentum state (short story on Iowa: although it doesn't count as many points in the overall scheme of things, the first caucus and the second primary in New Hampshire are crucial to building up momentum going into the major races for candidates). Mike Huckabee's endorsement of a candidate, if he decides to do so, will propel that candidate.

2. The power vaccuum: For all intents and purposes, Mitt Romney now becomes the front-runner in the race. He also is one of the people with the most national name recognition, except for Sarah Palin. The main problem for the GOP is that if Romney doesn't step in, there won't be a clear leader. Some news outlets have said that this means vote-splitting.

3. Competitiveness good or bad?: No matter what, I believe that without Huckabee, the overall competitiveness becomes less polar in the election, as a consequence of the power vacuum that is left. With Trump out today, the once-expected high-level (people who have a large name recognition) going early into Iowa will be less. This means that the overall races will be less competitive and more fragmented. This may hurt the GOP, but on the other hand, it is possible that it will make the candidates really refine the issues. Maybe from there, a more competitive battle will break out. At the same time, there has to be a line between super-competitive high-level races and races that split the party in half. It will be interesting to see the overall effects.

4. Obama: It is not yet clear how this will affect Obama, but one of the candidates his administration may have been slightly more worried about in early stages is out of the election now.

News Alert: Huckabee Not Running

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Sun, 15 May 2011 01:06:00 +0000

Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas as well as the winner of the Iowa caucus for the 2008 election, has announced that he will not run for President. Questions that will be discussed soon in a more detailed post:
- How does this change the GOP field?
- Could this weaken the GOP since they don't have one of their frontrunners?
- Who will Huck endorse?

Check Twitter for more updates and look for a post later assessing the GOP field and reactions
http://twitter.com/#!/tuckerb34

It's Time

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Sat, 14 May 2011 16:17:00 +0000

The 2012 election cycle has now officially kicked off, meaning that it is time to get back to blogging again. We plan on approaching the 2012 election cycle in 2 ways: first, with the main stories updated here on the blog, and secondly with posts on Twitter. Our Twitter feed, http://twitter.com/#!/tuckerb34, makes it easier to talk about smaller issues and developments that just don't deserve an entire post, because the post would end up being just a paragraph or so long.

So far, 2 considered mainstream (have shown up in major polls) candidates have declared, and we want to discuss 2 more below:

Ron Paul-http://www.ronpaul2012.com/- Ron Paul has announced his candidacy for President, the 3rd time that he has done so.

Newt Gingrich-http://www.newt.org/- Gingrich has a multitude of Washington experience, but some personal problems form the past that could be a problem.

Herman Cain-http://www.hermancain.com//- Cain, a businessman and radio show host from Georgia, is making a major speech at Centennial Olympic Park in Atlanta on May 21st. It is expected that he will announce his bid for the Wh

Mike Huckabee-http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2011/05/14/huckabee-remains-tight-lipped-2012-aides-say-hes-no-go- He will be on FOX News tonight, and he has kept his personal advisers in the dark on whether or not he will run, suggesting that he may announce that he is not running. This would be an interesting development, because he was long considered a major force in the party.

Follow the GOP Debate

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Fri, 06 May 2011 00:46:00 +0000

We will be covering the first GOP tonight on Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/tuckerb34

News Alert: Mike Pence Not Running in 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 21:53:00 +0000

Mike Pence, a Republican from Indiana, has eliminated the chance that he will run for President in 2012, citing that he will instead focus on running for Governor of his state. CNN has reported (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/27/pence-rules-out-bid-for-president/) that one person said of him ""he is a realist and kept coming back to questions about the fund-raising."". Pence was considered as someone who could run, but his name recognition wasn't as great as some of the others.

There are still no official announcements of who IS running for the GOP nomination, just a list of names that has now gotten one line shorter.

Live Blogging: State of the Union 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 02:01:00 +0000

Live blogging is here!! This provides a great speech summary to look back on too.
9:57: We'll stop the live blogging, here thanks for looking, we'll have summaries later....the speech is not over, but nearing the finish
9:56: Also stresses the importance of no earmarks in new legislation.
9:56: Interesting site for another live blog http://sunlightfoundation.com/live/
9:52: The overall theme of the speech tonight seems to be a tough advocacy, but something that can work with bipartisanship: it involves cutting spending yet still trying to get the investing and innovating that President Obama wants. And on the government innovating, etc.: "We can't win the future with a government of the past".
9:48: Obama does want to propose cuts in defense, in communities, and more. Of course, those cuts are not going to be easy, but that he is ready to cut spending without cutting things on "the most vulnerable citizens". He says that we cannot cut things for innovation, as that will be a problem. This annual domestic is around 12%, but Obama stands that this is not enough.
9:45: Obama now is talking about Healthcare, and Obama says that he knows there are ideas that can work to change, of course he isn't going to advocate repeal.
9:34: In addition to major colleges, he talks about community colleges and how they are also effective.
9:30: Plan to replace No Child Left Behind with a different option.
9:29: Onto education topics
9:27: 2035--80% electricity from clean sources...is this actually possible?
9:26: Talking about how these are the "Apollo projects" of the President day, and he wants 1 million electric vehicles by 2015, getting "behind this innovation". To fund, he wants to end the giving of taxpayer dollars to oil companies, shifting that the clean energy.
9:24: Bio-medical, IT, clean energy are what Obama says helps security and re-invention to solve problems
9:22: First step=American innovation says Obama...talking about how people need to be creative in order for things to work
9:19: He also says that we should be looking for competitiveness, in a world where jobs get tougher with China and India, among others.
9:17: As expected, this will mainly be about the economy and overcoming the current problems.
9:16: Obama is pointing out the option of being able to work together.
9:13 PM: The President has opened by talking about Tuscon and the shootings there, talking about democracy, etc.
9:11 PM: Onto the thank yous and the formal introduction....the speech is prepared via the teleprompter, and excerpts and the final copy were released ahead of time by the White House.
9:09 PM: Obama is shaking hands with some of the people on the aisle, and he has taken the podium.
9:06 PM: The President is in the House

State of the Union 2011 Tonight

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 00:54:00 +0000

The State of the Union Address is tonight, we will be doing live blogging, but first, some things:

1. The address starts at 9pm Eastern on all major channels. If you aren't near a TV, CNN has an iPhone/iPod App that will broadcast it live. There are also probably some other applications.

2. Obama is probably going to focus on the U.S. economy and America being competitive on a global scale.

3. In an interesting event, lawmakers will not be sitting in their usual Democrat-Republican split aisle seating; instead, they will be sitting mixed in, Democrat next to Republican, in a sign that civility and bipartisanship is important. It will be interesting to see how this fuels bipartisanship.

4. Don't forget to notice that John Boehner, the new Speaker of the House, will be sitting next to Vice President Biden directly behind the President. It will be interesting to gauge his reactions.

Herman Cain Forms Exploratory Comittee for 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 16:04:00 +0000

*UPDATE 1/14/2011 6:57 PM-- CNN published a good article on him: http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/01/13/herman.cain/index.html?hpt=Sbin

Original Post
Republican Herman Cain has formed an exploratory committee for the 2012 elections, the first one to make it official by forming this organization. These committees are used to test the waters of the Presidential nominating process, and by no means is Cain a fully committed candidate. Him and his people are currently searching for options and evaluating their options before making a final decision.

He also launched a website at http://www.hermancain.com/. First, some background: Cain is a member of the GOP from Georgia, and many people may recognize him, interestingly enough, as a former CEO of Godfather's Pizza company. He went to Morehouse College and Purdue, and he also has his own talk radio show. The show airs on 750 WSB, based in Atlanta. News sources have reported that although he may not have the name recognition of other prospective candidates, he does get around in Conservative spheres, and he has his own followers already.

The about page on his website, presumably written by him, says "I’m not done yet!". We'll see if that comes true.

The Month Ahead: January 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 16:54:00 +0000

I wanted to start a new feature here monthly, basically a preview of the major events in politics for the month.

This January might well be a new era for the government and especially Congress. This week, the House and Senate will reconvene, with different outlooks compared to before the holiday season and even the 2010 elections. The House, as most know, will be controlled by the GOP. John Boehner of Ohio will become the Speaker of the House. Boehner was the Minority Leader under Nancy Pelosi (who may now become Minority Leader in the House). Boehner actually in a rare move challenged Pelosi in the election for the Speaker, but Pelosi won. The USA Today reports that (http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2011/01/new-congress-john-boehner-speaker-/1) Boehner will take the gavel tomorrow with a major speech to the House floor, but with less of the ceremony of the previous election of Speaker Pelosi.

The GOP will influence the bills both in the House and the Senate, and some Tea Party Republicans are even in the Senate, including Rand Paul of Kentucky. In the coming month, it will be interesting to see how all of these new people work together towards bipartisan legislation. In terms of 2012, it will test Obama and show how well he can deal with tougher situations. The progress (or lack of it) that happens in the next couple years will dramatically effect how both sides are perceived by the public and therefore effect the outcome of the 2012 elections. A couple major motions are set to be debated in January, namely spending cuts and a potential GOP attempt to repeal healthcare reform. Filibuster reform could also be a subject debated in the Senate.

And lastly, Obama is set to have his second State of the Union Address in January or early February, and we will live blog that like last year.

Jon Huntsman: Potential 2012 Candidate?

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Sun, 02 Jan 2011 04:24:00 +0000

Multiple sources are putting their attention on Jon Huntsman, former Governor of Utah and now the Ambassador to China (if you’re curious check out his bio at Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Huntsman,_Jr.). He was appointed by Obama (interesting since he is a Republican) for the Ambassador position, and some even said that he did it to try and sideline him from 2012. Newsweek did a feature on him at http://www.newsweek.com/2011/01/04/the-manchurian-candidate.html and an article in the New York Times has a quote from that article:

“You know, I’m really focused on what we’re doing in our current position,” he tells the magazine. “But we won’t do this forever, and I think we may have one final run left in our bones.” -- http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/01/stirrings-of-a-challenge-from-an-obama-appointee/

If Huntsman did decide to run, it seems as though there is an amount of support for him, and the campaign could grow into one to watch in the primary season. From my outlook and from reading some of the articles on this subject, he faces a couple problems:

1. He would be running against his own boss.

2. Being an ambassador doesn’t give him a position to be able to discuss lots of political issues broadly and with his personal opinions.

3. The name recognition of Huntsman is not as high of a percentage compared with the front-runners in the GOP right now, who include Romney, Huckabee, Palin, and Gingrich.

It will be interesting to see how this situation plays out. The official page of Huntsman from the State Department is at http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/biog/127146.htm. Through some Googling, I discovered a very interesting article from ABC’s Salt Lake City station: http://tinyurl.com/dnbj58. The article cites that David Plouffe, campaign manager in 2008 and most likely 2012 for Obama, saying that the prospect of Huntsman running makes him feel a “"wee bit queasy...I think he's really out there speaking a lot of truth about the direction of the party"”. Although Obama did put this man in his Administration, the new interview in Newsweek can show that he isn’t scared of running against his own boss. The developments in the party and his current job will probably dictate his choice, but Huntsman now is a person to watch, even if he isn’t one of the top recognized candidates.

Happy New Year/Year in Review

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Sat, 01 Jan 2011 14:00:00 +0000

Happy New Year! We would like to review the year in coverage on the blog, with the major highlights as we did after the 2008 election with a timeline http://www.electiongazette.com/2009/01/2008-election-in-review.html
Here's this year:

January: We covered the earthquake in Haiti as well as live blogging Obama's first State of the Union Address (http://www.electiongazette.com/2010_01_01_archive.html). This was Obama's first State of the Union, and he'll have another coming up this January.

April: We began to overview the 2010 election situation.

May: We continued covering the upcoming 2010 elections as well as outlining the GOP's YouCut strategy. This strategy didn't work, and even though the GOP brought many spending cuts to the House floor, all of them were struck down.

June: The specific primaries began in different states as the picture came together and both sides began to work on their strategy. (http://www.electiongazette.com/2010_06_01_archive.html)

August: This was a big month in Georgia, where we covered the Republican Governor's runoff in the state, as well as providing coverage from the Sarah Palin-Karen Handel event. Nathan Deal ended up winning that and the general election, and he'll take office in January http://www.electiongazette.com/2010_08_01_archive.html.

September: We looked at scenarios for 2010.

October/November: We covered the 2010 elections, along with live coverage on election night (live blogging).

December: 2012 preparations

We look forward to beginning to cover the elections more in-depth than ever before this year!

Primary Challenge for Obama?

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Fri, 31 Dec 2010 12:48:00 +0000

It’s a cold January Tuesday in Chicago, a day where Obama was expected to be lounging in his headquarters, taking a look at the GOP results from Iowa as they trickled in. Who would be his challenger? Who does Axelrod need to start reading up on? Instead, Obama is in Iowa, campaigning hard. He’s in a hotel like election night – this is a situation that could be a reality in November depending on how the picture works out. I wanted to explore some of the situations that could happen with the Iowa primary on the Democratic side, and the eventual effects on the party.

First of all it does need to be noted that the chances of President Obama actually losing the nomination in 2012 are slim to none. Most likely, we will see the President in November. However, the primary challenge could have an effect on him. I isolate a legitimate primary challenge (with a challenger that is capable of winning major primaries) into two main scenarios, one good and one bad.

1. The Splitting of the Party: In a situation where the President faces a serious primary challenger, the Democratic base will divide into two groups, one supporting him and one supporting the new person. This means that there would be some fragmentation inside of the party. After the primary season is over, the Dems would have to reconcile and begin preparation for the November election. They do have history on their side even if this is the negative scenario – in 2008, Hillary Clinton and President Obama had a valiant fight to the finish, but they were able to get their teams together after the problem and form a unified party for the general election. That would be the best situation for the Dems, but there is always the chance that there could be an amount of fragmentation in the party. In a close election, this could make the difference.

2. The Extra Boost: The second option out of a primary challenger would be a situation where Obama is strengthened by the challenge. If the split in the party is avoided, the primary season can give a demo for Obama to fine tune his policies and get the major attacks out of the way. In his terms, this would be a good situation where the problems could be over before the general election. This could give him an extra edge. We may have seen a hint of this in 2008, where the major controversies about the President were released in attack ads during the primary, which in a way gave Obama some time to prep out his answers to those questions.

Both of these situations are possible with a primary challenge. It will be interesting to see those outcomes, as the Democratic party will have to be unified or risk another reconciliation battle (like with Clinton and Obama). It worked well in 2008, but could it work again?

Obama's Outlook in 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Tucker) — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 11:23:00 +0000

The first thing that needs to be looked at on the Democratic side is a challenge to President Obama from inside the party. No person of considerable strength has emerged, and it is generally expected that Obama will be in the general election.

The next step is with the Vice Presidential candidates, which can make a difference in a close election. Currently, Joe Biden is getting teased from media outlets for his gaffes; however, this probably won't have an effect on the election picture. There has been talk of the President swapping VP's with current Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Some interesting news that did develop in the past couple weeks is that Clinton was quoted saying that she believes Secretary of State will be her last public position, meaning she wouldnt run with Obama. Personally, I do expect Obama to keep Biden, as firing him may be a sign of division.

The third and most important thing to look for in Democratic scenarios would be the general election picture. Time will test how the public and especially mainstream Democrats feel about the President. In the 2010 primaries, we even saw some of the Dems shift away from the President, which would be the cause of fragmentation in a Presidential election. The state of the economy above all will probably dictate the public picture. Assuming that the Dems are unified going into election night, we look to possible Republican challengers. Their chances are mostly based on how Obama is looking going into the election. Obama may have an advantage in types of races where he is against a more rightist candidate. For example, an Obama v. Palin contest could be a win for Obama (at least on paper) because he may be able to get the moderate base more easily than Palin, who had recently aligned herself with the Tea Party, who is seen as more right than Obama is left. Of course, those are only predictions, and the President could face a more establishment Republican at which point performance in office will be the large decider.