Piggington's Econo-Almanac

Higher-Priced Homes Still Sitting Out the Rebound

Rich Toscano — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 19:51:23 +0000

Earlier this week, Kelly Bennett gave us the lowdown on the Case-Shiller home price data for November. I'm going to just add a couple of things.

First, I have updated the requisite post-peak chart...

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Improvement in Rate of Job Loss Stalls Out

Rich Toscano — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 23:03:17 +0000

Recent months have seen a fairly steady improvement in the year-over-year rate of job losses for San Diego County. That annual rate of change was still firmly negative -- just less so than it had been previously.

continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org

Shambing Away from Cheapness But Still Milling About In The General Locale of Affordability

Rich Toscano — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 05:05:12 +0000

Well, I thought the old "Shambling Toward Affordability" title for this series of articles was a bit pithier but it just doesn't quite work now that home prices have been rising for the better part of a year. In any case, regardless of the what we want to call it, it's time to check in on San Diego housing valuations as of year-end 2009.

The 2009 home price rally reversed the direction of the shamble, but it didn't really change the overall picture, which is that San Diego home prices (in aggregate, of course) are still at middling levels of valuation.

Here's the price to per capita income ratio:

December 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Rich Toscano — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 00:45:59 +0000

The San Diego housing market managed to squeek out another gain in the median price per square foot as 2009 drew to a close:

Shadow Inventory is For Real

Rich Toscano — Sat, 02 Jan 2010 22:09:45 +0000

It feels like I've been writing about "shadow inventory" -- homes that are in foreclosure but haven't hit the market yet -- forever. Yet no flood of foreclosures has yet inundated the market, and as a matter of fact, inventory has been quite scarce lately. Is there anything to this shadow inventory concept?

As Kelly Bennett documented in a recent blog entry, the answer is yes. Kelly noted as of Tuesday, there were 19,453 San Diego homes that were in foreclosure but that were not yet listed for sale. That, my friends, is your shadow inventory.

For purely illustrative purposes, let's try to understand what the effect would be if all these homes in foreclosure were to suddenly hit the market.

continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org

Case-Shiller: Low End Rebounds, High End Languishes

Rich Toscano — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 04:55:01 +0000

The latest release of the Case-Shiller home price index showed that San Diego's home price rally continued into October.

As it did last month, the high-priced tier once again put in the weakest showing -- an increase of .2 percent for the month compared to a 1.8 percent increase in the low-priced tier. The middle tier rose by .5 percent and the aggregate index by .4 percent.

continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org

Ramsey Su's Real Estate Outlook for 2010

Rich Toscano — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 23:04:40 +0000

It wouldn't be a proper Christmas without a little holiday cheer from legendary housing bubble analyst Ramsey Su. So pour yourself a couple buckets of egg nog and read on...

Another Less-Bad Employment Data Point

Rich Toscano — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 23:34:22 +0000

I wrote Monday about the increase in employment at San Diego businesses between October and November. I also discussed how the year-over-year change in payroll employment, while still firmly negative, had become steadily less so in recent months.

Today we'll look at the other job survey I've been writing about of late...

continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org

"Less Bad" Trend in San Diego Employment Picks up the Pace

Rich Toscano — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 04:29:39 +0000

Employment at San Diego businesses dropped on a year-over-year
basis, according to the latest estimates from the EDD. But the
trend we've seen in recent months of consecutively smaller annual job
declines strengthened once again.

continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org

November 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Rich Toscano — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 00:49:49 +0000

November saw the 7-month rally in San Diego home prices, as measured by the median price per square foot, come to an end: