Piggington's Econo-Almanac

April 2012 Resale Data Rodeo

Rich Toscano — Tue, 15 May 2012 01:18:50 +0000

Inventory has remained super tight, and as the historical relationship depicted in the following chart would have predicted, prices have been on the rise:

My Day Job - Year-End 2011 Edition

Rich Toscano — Fri, 11 May 2012 15:09:24 +0000

My company, Pacific Capital Associates, has recently completed the third-party examination of our investment track record for 2011. (For background on this, see my inaugural explanation of these annual performance updates). Here it is, in chart form... you can click on the chart for more detail and loads of fun disclosures:

March 2012 Resale Data Rodeo

Rich Toscano — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 01:56:24 +0000

Due to time constraints I am going to do a graph-only version of the rodeo this month. Except for this part, I guess.

I will quickly note the following:

The median price per square foot did rise last month, as the low months-of-inventory figure suggested might happen
Months of inventory (final graph) is 30% lower than last year, and the lowest it's been in at least 6 years (as far back as my data goes for this series)
If the typical historical relationship between months of inventory and prices is still in place, inventory at these levels strongly suggests near term price rises
Housing bears please note the use of the phrase "near term" before flaming me in the comments

Why Bubbles Are Bad

Rich Toscano — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 21:15:31 +0000

I've often discussed how the three industries that I refer to as the "housing bubble beneficiary sectors" took the brunt of the recessionary job losses. In this post, I have updated some graphs showing the enormous degree to which this is the case.

The bubble beneficiary sectors, so named because they grew like weeds as a result of the housing boom, are: construction, finance (which includes real estate transactions), and retail (not directly related to housing like the other two, but a bubble beneficiary nonetheless as a result of vigorous home equity-financed consumer spending). In the graphs below, I have grouped these three sectors together as the "Housing Bubble Sectors" and charted the change in their size alongside that of the non-bubble private sector industries and government.

I took these graphs all the way back to the beginning of 2007 because the bubble sectors started to deflate alongside the housing bubble even before the recession officially began in December of that year. In order to avoid seasonality problems, I started and ended the graphs on the same month (January 2007 through January 2012).

This first graph shows the number of jobs lost in each of these three categories:

continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org

Employment Backed Off in Early 2012

Rich Toscano — Sat, 31 Mar 2012 01:10:49 +0000

According to the Employment Development Department latest estimates, seasonally-adjusted employment in San Diego is estimated to have dropped between December and January, and then to have rebounded somewhat February:

continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org

Case-Shiller Index Down in January

Rich Toscano — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 01:13:55 +0000

The Case-Shiller index of San Diego home prices declined once again in January, falling by 1.6 percent for the high-priced tier, 1.0 percent for the mid-priced tier, and .2 percent for the low-priced tier. (The tiers represent, respectively, the top, middle, and bottom one-third of homes sold by price). The overall San Diego index fell by 1.1 percent.

As the following graph shows that the middle and high tiers are now below the post-bubble low points they hit in early 2009. (I guess that means I should remove the word "2009 trough" from these graphs).

continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org

February 2012 Resale Data Rodeo

Rich Toscano — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 20:24:49 +0000

The median price per square foot was mixed last month, with single family homes up 2.0% but condos walloped for 4.3%. In aggregate, prices by this measure were mildly up simply because a lot more single family homes than condos sell each month. In any case, the single family series tends to be smoother and a more reliable indicator of what's really going on, so I'd say February was a mild win (or at least a tie) for prices:

Case-Shiller Index Ended Down for 2011

Rich Toscano — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 02:15:45 +0000

The Case-Shiller index of San Diego home prices declined across the board in December:

continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org

January 2012 Resale Data Rodeo

Rich Toscano — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 01:24:13 +0000

The median price per square foot of sold San Diego homes dropped once again in January:

A Lost Decade-Plus for San Diego Home Prices

Rich Toscano — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 19:14:14 +0000

The latest Case-Shiller data, released last week, provided a not-very-clear picture of home price trends.

The overall index fell by .9 percent between October and November. There was some serious divergence amongst price tiers, though: the high tier fell by a mild .4 percent, the middle tier was whacked for 1.7 percent, and the low tier was actually up by .4 percent.

continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org