Really, sometime I laugh when people ask me, what are the main election issues in Uttar Pradesh election. There are long boring debates on TV channels about issues and trends. These things might have an effect on urban educated middle class, but THEY DO NOT VOTE. So, what really decides results of election? Let us have a closer understanding how politics works in rural areas.

In todays’ time and in a state as backward as UP, everybody has one problem or other with the system. People don’t really care if that problem belong to the whole community, ie. electricity, road, unemployment. But an individual voter is very very concerned about his personal problems where he might need help of some political leader, ie. avoiding problems with police, getting arms licence, some source in government office etc. So everybody tries to form a relation with one or two local leaders. Now who will help you in such illegal acts? Someone who is your own caste, from your own village, somehow related to you. So this process leads to local blocks of influence of a local leader. He gets work done, so people are with him.

Now, every district has 20-30 such influential leaders or families who can get your work done. They command their own blocks of influence. Their supporters will vote for them in spite of their political party. Now these 20-30 people fight for tickets from 4-5 major parties so that they can gain voters loyal to that particular party. The percentage of voters loyal to party is very low in UP, may be 40% in urban areas but less than 20% in rural areas. These leaders anticipate mood of neutral voters (say 20%) and try to align themselves with that mood. So the stocks of ticket from party A to B keep going up and down in every election. These local leaders change loyalties in every election based on opportunity and local equations. So the job of all major political parties is to attract these influential leaders to its fold.

So, the issues like corruption/poverty/unemployment are only talking points, they do not affect large number of people’s choice on voting machine. However these issues do change mind of 10-15% concerned citizens, but alas they don’t vote in large numbers.

Take a look at these related posts:

1. Happy new year but same old politics in India
2. Increasing caste divide in rural India
3. 15 step guide for you to make a difference in politics

Ground is prepared, crowd is in full enthu, umpires have given the signal, now everybody is waiting for the game to be started. Parties have announced most of their warriors for this mahabharat. For some it is the game of life and death, for some it is about a career, on the other hand some are just trying to reclaim their lost inheritence. Telling right from wrong is the most difficult part in this mahabharat and the only difference from blood thirstyness of kurukshetra and Uttar Pradesh election is that here we have four contenders of power instead of two and all of them fancy their chances. Let us examine the claims and ground reality of UP, which is going to polls next month.

If anybody who thinks that there is any other issue which is going to play an important role in this election than caste, he is certainly day-dreaming. However some possible issues that can swing a small percentage of population from one side to other are as followed

1. Corruption has created a general apathy towards BSP and INC.

2. Land aquisition issue has created a sense support for INC and RLD in western UP.

3. Muslims are again coming back to the fold of SP after return of Azam Khan.

4. Upper castes are again coming back to BJP and some are looking at INC as alternative.

5. The trick of division of UP can play in favour of BSP in bundelkhand and poorvanchal.

6. BSP is the best prepared and best organised party at grass-root level at the moment.

7. SP is fighting with the problem of leadership vacuum.

8. Hit and run strategy of Rahul Gandhi has created a lot of interest, but mind it, it is not vote.

9. BJP is still in bewilderment and not able to understand what to do.

10. Public is still not able to rise above caste politics, development is almost a non-issue.

In this way, if we summarize the situation in one line, “It is the race where no contender has any idea about how to win, all the injured and somehow race is changing into struggle about not to finish last”. Here is the analysis and prediction about result. Please understand that these are just predictions, and as we know, they never come true. So just enjoy, debate and have fun. Read the caste-wise analysis of current trend in UP here

In history of every nation, there comes a time when it needs just a push to get launched on the path of greatness. We have seen great leaders who have provided that extra push on such crucial junctures in the history of India. Today as we say hello to a new year, a sense of gloom persists in political and economic sphere of this great nation.

Government of the day has lost its credibility and it has touched new lows in corruption and dictatorial attitude. However the biggest worry of current political scenario is not a knee jerk government but it is the vacuum in the opposition benches. No party has any clue about how to take out nation from this abyss. Everybody is busy playing their own little game, so that they have lost the sight of larger issues. Be it congress or BJP or left parties, leaders are focusing just on the petty politics. Nobody is ready to take responsibility of the future. On one hand there is a naive prince, who got everything in silver spoon, but he is not even able to hold the spoon. On the other hand we have a veteran leader, whose greed has surpassed all the realms of logic, he is not even ready to retire at the age of 85. Left parties are hopelessly trying to find the manifesto of communism again which they have lost in streets of Singur. It is obviously day-dreaming to expect anything worthwhile from regional parties. The movement of decade, in the white knight-ship of an old gandhian triggered the sense of euphoria in nation, specially rising middle classes, but it also failed due to tactlessness and foolish egoistic nature of its leadership.

In last 20 years situation has never became so alarming that the nation seems lost. Economic sphere is also not providing any good news. The biggest worry is that bureaucracy and judiciary is hiding in their own cocoon. The torture of indecisive government and lack of leadership at top reminded me of a famous statement of ex-PM Narsimha Rao, “Not taking a decision is also a decision”. Well that decision of not taking any decision is dragging country atleast 25 years back, forget about being a super-power. When the country is governed by a blind PM and reigns are in the hand of people who are not responsible for anything, the jackal herd is looting this country.

So, happy new year, my dear friends. We celebrate, we mourn, we wait for that leader to arrive, who will have the ability and above all a heart to guide the nation. To my dear leaders I can only say, O dumb political class, if you can just win over your greed and self-centeredness, this nation will make you king of its heart and soul. This is a country of sunflowers, it always waits for the sun to rise, then it worships him, until then it waits in darkness.

Take a look at these related posts:

1. How politics really works in rural India

Recent public debate about relation between CBI and proposed body of lokpal has raised a question of investigative agency’s autonomy. In Indian society when something goes wrong, a loot, a murder, a corruption scandal, we are very quick to blame the police department and other investigative agencies for this lapse. There is nobody who would deny that police is one of the most corrupt public institutions in India. But is that the whole story? Are the police officer’s inefficiency and corruption something they are born with or something systemic? Let us examine this issue.

If we want to understand the working of any public office, we must understand first that a sound balance between autonomy and accountability (legal responsibility) is a must for proper working of any such office. Police and CBI are no exception to this rule. If we give more autonomy than responsibility it can become inefficient and dictatorial. So the proper control over police and CBI is a must. That is why our constitution gave the control of police in hands of elected representatives.

But here the script went wrong. In a democracy, and that too a nascent democracy like India, politicians and even general public is more interested in personal advancement on the expanse of society as a whole. So whenever a political party comes to power, it uses the police and CBI to harass opponent and dissolve cases against itself. We should not become too critical of political parties because it is more or less guaranteed that if such power is given to you sir, you will not hesitate to use it for personal gains.

In this way, key lies in giving proper autonomy to the investigative agencies. Politicians and judiciary should not have too much of a say in day to day matters of police/CBI such as promotion, transfer etc. Politics should be confined to the policy making about police. A model police act was proposed by SC in Prakash Singh vs Union of India case. If implemented it can solve all the major problems of police. Directives in a nutshell are:

1. Constitute a State Security Commission (SSC) to ensure that the state government does not exercise unwarranted influence or pressure on the police; lay down broad policy guideline; and evaluate the performance of the state police.

2. Ensure that the director general of police is appointed through a merit-based transparent process and secure a minimum tenure of two years.

3. Ensure that other police officers on operational duties (including superintendents of police in-charge of a district and station house officers in-charge of a police station) are also provided a minimum tenure of two years.

4. Separate the investigation and law and order functions of the police.

5. Set up a Police Establishment Board (PEB) to decide transfers, postings, promotions and other service-related matters of police officers of and below the rank of deputy superintendent of police and make recommendations on postings and transfers above the rank of deputy superintendent of police.

6. Set up a Police Complaints Authority (PCA) at state level to inquire into public complaints against police officers of and above the rank of deputy superintendent of police in cases of serious misconduct, including custodial death, grievous hurt, or rape in custody and at district levels to inquire into public complaints against the personnel below the rank of deputy superintendent of police in cases of serious misconduct.

7. Set up a National Security Commission (NSC) at the union level to prepare a panel for selection and placement of chiefs of the central police organizations (CPO) and CBI with a minimum tenure of two years.

But in my opinion SC was just kidding. How can we expect political parties, who use police as their private militia, to implement such act? Nobody gives up his power just because it is better for nation. It is just a hope that someday another anna, another gandhi will come who can create a public outcry and, more importantly, has political acumen to get such act passed from parliament. Till then, we are either too weak to say something or too rich to care about bribe or too indifferent to be a citizen.

Take a look at these related posts:

1. kissing in public, an issue that divided the metro compartment

Regions included: Current Haryana, Hanumangarh (Rajsthan)

Population (2011): 2.7 crores

Area: 50000 sq KM

Note: Haryanvi culture extend to some part of current Rajsthan also. Chandigarh should be returned to Punjab as par Rajiv-Longawala accord. Haryana should develop a new capital.

Take a look at these related posts:

1. Greater Jharkhand: proposed state
2. Bhojpur: proposed state
3. Malwa: proposed state

Regions included: Gwalior, Rewa, Sagar, Chambal, Shahdol & half Jabalpur divisions of MP and Jhansi, Chitrakoot divisions & Sonbhadra district of UP

Population (2011): 5 crores

Area: 200000 sq KM

Note: There is a long standing demand for Bundelkhand state but it has been turned down on the basis of lack of resources in the Bundelkhand region. If we include the Baghelkhand region in this proposed state than it can form a viable state. Even two separate states of Bundelkhand (Gwalior, Sagar, Chambal, Jhansi, Chitrakoot divisions) and Baghelkhand can be formed.

Take a look at these related posts:

1. Harit Pradesh or Pashchim Pradesh or Braj Pradesh or Doab
2. Malwa: proposed state
3. Awadh: proposed state

Regions included: Bhopal, Indore, Ujjain, Narmadapuram divisions of MP

Population (2011): 3.5 crores

Area: 80000 sq KM

Note: Indore as capital city, malwa has been a very important historic region of cetral India. The logic-less state of Madhya Pradesh should be done away with. This area has a great potential for fast economic growth if proper policies are made specifically for this region.

Take a look at these related posts:

1. Magadh: proposed state
2. Bundelkhand or vindhya pradesh: proposed state
3. Vidarbha: proposed state

Regions included: Ganganagar, Bikaner, Churu, Nagaur, Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, Barmer, Jalor, Sirohi, Pali districts of Rajasthan

Population (2011): 2 crores

Area: 120000 sq KM

Note: Thar desert situated west of Arawalis is home to a sparse population and a underdeveloped economy. Separate state can provide focused approach and it can become home to a new green revolution.

Take a look at these related posts:

1. Bundelkhand or vindhya pradesh: proposed state
2. Harit Pradesh or Pashchim Pradesh or Braj Pradesh or Doab
3. Malwa: proposed state

Regions included: Nagpur, Amravati division of Maharashtra and half Jabalpur division of MP

Population (2011): 2.5 crores

Area: 100000 sq KM

Note: Demand for Vidarbha state is a long standing one. This region has been left out of growth story of Maharashtra and desperately need a smaller state to stop all those farmers’ suicide

Take a look at these related posts:

1. Magadh: proposed state
2. Malwa: proposed state
3. Bundelkhand or vindhya pradesh: proposed state

Regions included: Current Jharkhand, Purulia (WB), Sundergarh, Mayurbhanj, Kyonjhar of Odisha

Population (2011): 5 crores

Area: 75000 sq KM

Note: Jharkhand was formed by bifurcating the Bihar, but the other tribal areas in West Bengal and Odisha were not included due to lack of political consensus. This temporary arrangement should be turned in a permanent one by forming, what some call as greater Jharkhand

Take a look at these related posts:

1. Greater Haryana: proposed state
2. Bundelkhand or vindhya pradesh: proposed state
3. Awadh: proposed state