This week’s show is a review of the football season and look ahead to the Euro 2012

Matt talks about the trends in the markets and how the dynamics have changed over the course of the season, he also gives an insight on how he prepares for big tournaments and gives some inside snippets of information. He points out that laying at 1.60 and below will yeld a profit season on season in the Premier League winners & relegation markets.

In Pro X Trading news, Matt talks about this week free trading webinar and how you can get involved.

This Weeks Show

If you would like to become an X-Trader head over to Pro X Trading.

You can follow Matt on twitter @mattfinnigan.

Slight value with the blues at home at 1.26 even with their poor season, this should be the game they get a good result. I can’t back them at that price. If pushed i’d be backing the blues to overcome the HCP at -9.5. if the overs is 48.5 around even its a good shout.

Waratahs vs Bulls

The Tahs were poor against the Brumbies last week and they are overpriced at evens for me, The bulls conversely are a great price at evens. Seems an easy call to Back the bulls at anything over 2.0 could be a tight contest but i don’t trust the Waratahs to be able to finish a game well and have not done all season. Don’t expect that to change against the Bulls.

1pt Bulls match odds at 2.0 or better

Highlanders vs Hurricanes

Highlanders should be at 1.5 or better so the current 1.65 is a decent price. I expect it to be fairly close so the HCP line is interesting at 4.5. I am confident the Highlanders are value at 1.6 and will take anything above that.

1pt Highlanders @ 1.7 or better

Rebels vs Crusaders

The Crusaders are about right at 1.17 and a case of how many they win by, not as good in defence as they have been in previous season’s and there should be plenty of points in the game. I’m not convinced by the HCP line at 14 ( the same as the Reds last week) are the Rebels as good as the Reds ? Will be looking at overs here but nothing else.

Sharks vs Force at Durban

Here again the Fav’s are about right at 1.18 Sharks should have an easy win but again the HCP line is too close to make a call either way. Similarly with the points, could go either way.

Stormers vs Cheetahs

3 in a row with short priced fav’s about right on paper (1.2). And again the HCP line is showing little margin for me. The overs is interesting but with the Cheetahs the market will expect it to be high scoring so i doubt there will be a value opportunity but 48.5 at evens i’d snap up the day of the game.

Reds vs Chiefs

The Reds are hoping to finish the season strongly but are overpriced at 2.08 and the value is with the chiefs in the Match odds. And any price around evens for the Chiefs is a good bet for me against an inconsistent Reds side.

1pt Chiefs at 2.0 or better.

Huddersfield entertain Wigan at the Galpharm Stadium in this evening’s Super League game which kicks off at 8pm and can be seen live on Sky Sports 2.
The two sides go into the game occupying the top two places in the league table and Huddersfield will be looking to complete a league double over Wigan after winning 20-16 at the DW Stadium back on the opening game of the season.

Wigan are on a roll and victory tonight would be their tenth on the bounce in all competitions and they go into tonight’s game on the back of a victory over arch rivals St Helens in last weekend’s Challenge Cup tie which has put them safely into the semi-finals along with Huddersfield who battered London in their quarter final tie.

It’s been an excellent season so far for Huddersfield and they have progressed well as a team over the last few seasons although they face an acid test tonight on whether they can maintain pace with the more familiar names at the top end of the table.

Wigan weren’t really in any trouble last weekend against Saints and they are more than capable of getting a result tonight. If Gareth Hock can keep his discipline then he will be a major player tonight along with the usual class input from Sam Tomkins and Josh Charnley.

On the Account

On the handicap line, even money is available on Wigan -4 with Bet Victor and that is a fair shout as what should be a good game, should go the way of the Warriors and see them open up a two point lead at the top of the league table.

]]> http://www.protradertip.com/superleague-preview-huddersfiel-wigan/feed/ 0 http://www.protradertip.com/superleague-preview-wigan-v-hull-kr/ http://www.protradertip.com/superleague-preview-wigan-v-hull-kr/#comments Fri, 04 May 2012 14:35:20 +0000 mattfin http://www.protradertip.com/?p=1980 Tonight’s Super League game sees Wigan entertain Hull KR at the DW Stadium and the game can be seen live on Sky Sports 2 at 8pm.

In this week’s Challenge Cup Quarter Final draw, Wigan were drawn against old foes St Helens in what is undoubtedly the tie of the round next weekend. That game will surely be resting heavily on the players’ minds and no one will want to miss a cup clash against Saints. Wigan should have too much in their locker for Hull KR this evening but it may be that with one eye on next weekend, Wigan may be looking to get the job done with no frills attached.

Hull KR come into the game as a model of inconsistency and Rovers boss Craig Sandercock will be looking for a good performance from his side following two wins on the bounce courtesy of London and Salford. The two points may be beyond them but KR will be looking to take advantage of any Wigan lapses of thinking a week ahead to their cup game.

In Wigan’s six home games this season they have won four of those ranging from 12 points against London to 30 points against Wakefield. Hull KR have picked up only two wins from seven on their travels with defeats ranging from 4 points against Castleford to 32 against Warrington.

It would appear that all roads lead to Wigan and whilst I do think they will win the game we have to look elsewhere for an angle as the match odds are of no use to us.

The handicap line ranges from 18-20 and I’d like to look at the 18.5 on Betfair with a view to gaining an in play trading profit on this market. If we take away the Wakefield game, four of Wigan’s home games have seen half time points differences of -2, -2, +6 and 0. If we now take away Hull KR’s defeat to Warrington, six of their half time points differences have been +2, -2, +6, -2, 0 and +2.

We could say from this that KR put up resistance in the first half and then tail off in the second period and let’s back Wigan to cover the 2^nd half handicap which ranges from -10 to -12. However, the Wakefield game aside again, Wigan have covered this only once with the other four second half point differences being -2, +2, +6 and -2.

On the Account

I’m taking the view that Wigan will have one eye on next week and that Hull KR will be looking to build on recent performances and they have first team players returning from injury to boost their lines and put up a decent show. Hopefully there’ll be a bit of money in the 18.5 market to take on Wigan and close out for an in play profit before half time.

This week’s show is all about Stop losses and how you can workout your risk going into opening trade

Matt talks about how he uses stop losses in the various sporting markets and why its important not to make your overall risk too high and the emotions of a losing run.

In Pro X Trading news, Matt gives the April results for X-Movers and how that service has increased a £1000 trading bank over 5 times already in 2012, how you can access and join him on free trading webinars and feedback on the horse racing workshop held last week. The Facebook page continues to grow with snippets of trading information being added all the time, including a massive steamer last week.

This Weeks Show

If you would like to become an X-Trader head over to Pro X Trading.

You can follow Matt on twitter @mattfinnigan.

Hurricanes vs. Blues

The Hurricanes are good value in the match odds at 1.6 though even against the blues I expect them to trade higher at some stage during the match. I wouldn’t be surprised by a 50 point game here and will be looking to see if there are any over’s opportunities but would be want the 48.5 option. I feel the Hurricanes should win comfortably and the hcp line at 4.5 is very attractive.

Canes -4.5 @ around 1.9 or better. 1pt

Rebels vs. Bulls

The Bulls have to go in to this game big fav’s and even at 1.2 they are slight value. The draw should be much bigger than the current 34 being offered. At the same time purely on value the Rebels would be a bet against @ 5.5. The margin here looks a bit scary at first glance but I feel confident the Bulls can overcome the margin of 12 pts I am expecting a win by 18 or so.

1pt Bulls -12 @ around 1.9 or better

Chiefs vs. Lions

Though I expect an easy win here and it’s easy to say with the odds at 1.08 for the fav’s the value bet would be to lay the Lions at 11, there is no value with the Chiefs at their current price. The margin is huge for the HCP but I am not convinced either over’s I do feel this could easily be an over’s game, I am expecting the line to be high though around 53.5 points and would prefer to see 48.5 before I risk anything

No official bet

Brumbies vs. Waratahs

Game of the round for me so far and there is not much separating the teams in the odds with the Brumbies slight fav’s at 1.85.  There are some places offering 1.9 or better for the Brumbies and this is the value call here if you can get it. I feel it could go either way but in terms of value as I said The Brumbies are the call at 1.9 or better. The margin is at 1 for this game.

1pt Brumbies 1.9 or better. * may be matched in play. Match odds

Sharks vs. Highlanders

The odds are about right in this game and there is little margin in either team in terms of value.  The HCP at 5 leaves us with little room to move as I feel the sharks will win a close game by 3 pts

No official bet

Cheetahs vs. Force

I have said it before, the cheetahs are a great team for their fans and they go into this game the value pick at 1.36. The HCP line is 8 for this game and I feel the Cheetahs will comfortably overcome the Force by 12 pts

1pt HCP Cheetahs -8 at around 1.9 or better

Crusaders vs. Reds

I feel the Crusaders are slightly overpriced at 1.2 but not by enough to go against them in the match odds.  The HCP line is very attractive at 12 as I don’t feel the Crusaders will run away with it. Giving the Reds a start like that despite their season so far has to be taken. I feel this could be high scoring as well and will be checking the day of the game.

1 pt Reds HCP +12 @ 1.9 or better

Blues vs Reds

In terms of value the only line that stands out is the draw in that it should be over 40 at least instead of the current 29.  This is set up to be an intriguing game, the reds need the win to keep their season alive and the Blues have been the definition of inconsistent.

I would love to be backing the Reds in this one but there is no margin in any of the markets including the HCP, though I do feel with the Blues at around 1.4 you will get a few opportunities to trade out higher, but would recommend using relatively small stakes as there is normally significant gaps in the market.

No Account Bet

Lions v Brumbies

The Lions at a best price of 2.1 are extremely overpriced.  And on the other side the Brumbies are a good value bet at best price currently 1.75. The HCP line is of interest and I feel the Brumbies will overcome the 2 pts, we have 2 choices here

1pt win Brumbies at 1.77 

Chiefs vs Hurricanes 

The Canes are strange price at 3.4 and if anything would be a value lay bet. Slightly better with the Chiefs who are having a great season and are deserved favourites at 1.33.
The HCP line around 7 offers little, the only way into this game would be to hope to get a better price in play.

1 pt - Back the Chiefs at 1.5 or better, may have to wait for this to be in play.

Force v Stormers

Another match with an overpriced team with the Force at 3.3. And again the value is with the Stormers at 1.4. The HCP is 6.5 and I feel the Stormers will be good enough to beat the Force by at least that margin.

1pt Stormers HCP +6.5 at 1.9 or better

Cheetahs v Highlanders

The cheetahs being at home has wiped away any value there may have been in this game and at 1.9 would be a value lay, on the flip side the Highlanders are a good price (2.06) because of this.
Everything is suggesting a close game, even the hcp line at + or – 1. This could be a high scoring game so I will be looking for opportunities the day of the game. I wouldn’t be surprised by a 50 pt game.

1pt Back Highlanders at 2.10

Waratahs vs Crusaders

This one could be a cracker.  I am looking forward to this game as a spectacle.  From a betting perspective the Crusaders are deserved favourites around 1.35-40.  And slight value.  The HCP line offers an opportunity at 7.5. Another game where I expect around 50 pts to be scored.

1pt Back Waratahs HCP + 7.5 @ around 1.9 or better

This week’s show is all about Social Networks and how they can be used for your trading, information is key to staying ahead of the masses

Matt talks about how he uses twitter, who he follows and why! He also explains the importance of having the news feeds hitting your desktop without going looking for them

In Pro X Trading news, Matt touches on why Skype is a major player for communication between the X-Traders and what you can expect on the new Pro X Trading Facebook page and also the free trading webinars he will be hosting.

This Weeks Show

If you would like to become an X-Trader head over to Pro X Trading.

You can follow Matt on twitter @mattfinnigan.

Highlanders vs Blues

I made a mistake last week with everything going on at the Blues it should have been back the sharks on the hcp so my apologies for that. I feel this has been factored into the price of the highlanders at 1.4-1.5. They are still value at this price and the hcp line of -4.5 is available at 1.9 so i will be taking advantage of that.

1pt Highlanders HCP -4.5 @1.9

Reds vs Stormers

An intriguing match this one and that is reflected in the price with the stormers slight fav’s at around 1.9. i think it could be a very close game and the value outright is with the fav’s as much as i hate to say it… Lane at 10 for the Reds gave me some renewed confidence but i feel he will take some time to really get settled. I feel the key will be the return of Harris at center and like the HCP offer of +2.5 at around 1.9.

1pt Reds +2.5 at around 1.9

Hurricanes vs Crusaders

The crusaders were strong last week and ruined a perfect weekend for me last weekend and are about right at 1.5 going into this game. I don’t think there is any value in the Hcp line of 6.5 so will leave this one alone. I do feel however it could be an over game but i would be looking for 48.5. If pushed it would be the hurricanes +6.5 at around 1.9 or better.

No official bet

Waratahs vs Rebels

The Tahs are huge fav’s here at around 1.15 and as strange as it may sound from a value perspective they are the choice. I don’t feel comfortable backing at that price though. The hcp line is offering a 16 point head start and i feel the Rebels are good enough to use it.

1pt Rebels Hcp + 15 or more at around 1.9 i will not be taking the 14.5 on betfair.

Sharks vs Chiefs

The Sharks go in as home fav’s against an impressive Chiefs side and the value is with the away team here by some margin and i will be taking the chiefs with the hcp available to go close to beating the home team. Could be a close game with plenty of points. Will be looking at any opportunities for the over 48.5 pts.

1pt Chiefs HCP +2.5 at around 1.9 or better.

Bulls v Brumbies

Again a small priced fav about right at 1.2. The bulls could easily win by more than 10 but am not convinced by the HCP line at 14.5. I feel this could also be an overs game and will be looking for the 48.5 market if its available.

No official bet.

In this weeks show Matt revisits the current trends in bookmaker free offers and how the mobile phone is becoming an ever increasing betting aid to punters

Matt welcomes back to the show Darren Hall from Bet72.com who takes time out from his training for the London Marathon to share his thoughts on how you can take advantage of these offers.

In Pro X Trading news, find out how you get you hands on some extra spaces in the one-off Horse racing seminar to be held at NEC crowne plaza on the 28th April

This Weeks Show

If you would like to attend the seminar on the 28th head over to Pro X Trading.

You can follow Matt on twitter @mattfinnigan.