Not so long ago, if the layers had chalked up Wakefield as favourites against Bradford, they would have been carted away to the madhouse.It’s woeful times for Bulls fans after their dominance of the game in the Brian Noble era.

One angle is to take the price in asumption that price will be shorter come kick-off, its our recommendation if you take this approach that you put at least 5 times the stake you would bet normally. Hopefully you can close your position for a profit pre-game leaving all of it on the Wildcats.

You should get a similar price on Wakefield winning by 1-12 point margin, but for us the safer line could be just backing them on match odds and take any point victory. We just don’t feel it warrants ramping up the price for the margin, but if you after a bigger price the HT/FT is a better route.

Finally; another decent bet to consider is Wakefield to cover -2 points on the 2nd half handicap at 5/4 (2.25) and this covers a few options, the home side needing to come from behind or if they are in a strong position pushing the victory home.

In Summary

It’s hard to back against the Wildcats and you should consider a bet that fits your profile from the home side winning the match, the second half handicap and HT/FT, all these bets works for us, but our main bet will be just a straight bet on the home side to win.

In the first three matches the Bulls have conceeded no less than 18 trys, but most firms chalking up under/over 8.5 match try’s makes it hard to play in that market in our opinion as its already been factored that there will be plenty of try’s. Once angle you could consider if you agree Wakefield will take the 2 points is to back them on half-time/full-time market generally at 15/8 (2.88).

]]> http://www.protradertip.com/superleague-preview-wakefield-v-bradford/feed/ 0 http://www.protradertip.com/six-nations-2012-betting-preview-week-3/ http://www.protradertip.com/six-nations-2012-betting-preview-week-3/#comments Sat, 25 Feb 2012 10:54:52 +0000 mattfin http://www.protradertip.com/?p=1584 After the decent start to the 2012 Six Nations in week 1, I missed week 2 due to family commitments, but hopefully I can maintain the unbeaten run this week.

Ireland v Italy

I have Ireland winning by 14 points and with the handicap line a little higher with most firms makes it difficult to play in that market as I would trust the Azzuri with my money to keep the score below the handicap and at the same time don’t push the extra points needed for Ireland to cover the line.

I think the best line comes in the highest scoring half being the 2nd half at 5/6 (1.83) generally as I think the second half will open up. Those of you who like to play in the winning margin markets then I recommend that you consider dutching Ireland 11-15 & 16-20 points at 9/4 (3.25) at best prices. For me I am going to plump for the former line!

England v Wales

Wales can land their 20th Triple Crown if they beat England at Twickenham this afternoon, trading around 4/6 (1.67) on Betfair and I have them -5 points on my tissue. The main handicap on Betfair is -3.5 points and had it been -2.5 points I would have recommended that you steam in. If you want to play the handicap then I recommend that you take -2 point being offered by Stan James as winning by 3 point rather than 4 will give you more chances of covering the handicap.

Like with the week 1 predictions if you can’t decide who will win the game then you could dutch either team winning by 10 points and that pays a shade under 8/13 (1.61) at best prices, but I will put my money where my mouth and say Wales will win and I recommend that you take the 2-1 (3.0) offer with Skybet on the 1-10 points winning margin.

Scotland v France

France are currently trading around 2/5 (1.40) on Betfair and I wouldn’t be surprised if that didn’t harden before the kick-off tomorrow. I would love Scotland to start well so I can take advantage of an inflated France price in-running as I have them on my tissue winning by 7 points and if I can get over 1.70 in-running I will snap that up. Having said that Ladbrokes offer 4/5 (1.80) on France/France in the half time/full time market and that has to enter your thought process.

I do think the best bet in this match is the 13/8 (2.62) on offer that France win by a winning margin of 1-12 points, if you want to be a little braver you can ramp that up to 2/1 (3.0) taking the 1-10 winning margin, but for me I am happy to take the 1-12 points.

In Summary

The matches seem a little more cut and dried in week 3 than week 1, I am happy to take away having bet on the who will win the match in Ireland game and rather go for the points racking up in the 2nd half. Happy to put my money where my mouth is on Wales to win by 1-10 margin. Finally; a similar tactic on France extending the line to 1-12 points. Good luck with all your bets and I will back in week 4.

Saints injury list has eased slightly and they have Mark Flanagan available again amongst one or two others. Not so good news for the Dragons on the injury front, although I think they’ll put up a good show

Catalans have started with wins at Bradford and at home to Castleford. It was a comfortable victory at Bradford but the Bulls are currently struggling on all fronts and again showed their frailties in last week’s home flooring by Wigan. I wouldn’t read too much into that score line and Catalan’s other victory was a 28-20 home win over Castleford.

From a trading point of view, if the trend on St Helen’s continues then they should trade bigger than 1.40 at some point during the first half.

In all three games so far they have come from behind in the second half. we wouldn’t be surprised to see Catalan match Saints in the earlier stages of the game, but we expect Saints to pull clear in the latter stages.

Most firms are giving Catalan both an 8 or 10 point start this evening and that has to appeal from either a betting or trading prospectus.

The line on Betfair +8.50 points on the Dragon with even money (2.0) being offered and I recommend that you consider risking a maximum of 40% of your opening position (or £40 in every £100).

Based on the 2.0 on offer you will be setting your stop loss on the Dragons at 3.35 and if the Dragons open the scoring first our advice would be to stay in the market until the match is level and they take your cut of the market.

It will take St Helens to be covering the handicap before your stop loss is activated, but we feel that you should have more opportunities to take profit throughout the 80 minutes. If all the cards fall in place, this trade could turn out to be a very big bet.

From a betting point view and based on the above assumption of a tight first half we recommend that you consider taking the 2nd Half Highest Scoring @ 1.80 with Boylesports.

After a week break (due a chest infection) the X-Traders Guide returns with a packed show

Matt Finnigan is joined on the show by fellow X-Trader Gareth Notton who gives an update on his trading journey and why review and note making has taken him to a new level. Gareth also shares his Cheltenham pointers

In other news Matt reveals what a fanstatci start to 2012 the X-Movers and horse racing seminar sells out in less than 2 weeks, plus how you can still become an X-Trader.

Finally; Matt also touches on the art of swing trading or trading within a range, plus why novice traders tend to be inflexible with profits and flexible with stop losses, when it should be the other way round.

This Weeks Show

Become an X-Trader

If you would like to trade alongside Matt and develop your trading you can join the X-Traders community by heading over to Pro X Trading.

You can follow Matt on twitter @mattfinnigan.

An extended show covering Cheltenham Festival, which forms the 1st part in a 2 part special (the 2nd week before the festival)

Matt Finnigan is joined on the show Andy Richmond who lives and breaths national hunt racing and is regular expert for Racing UK. In part one the pair explore the 4 championship races and why and who you may oppose at the head of the market.

Also they looking into how trading the festival is different to other everyday meetings and offer a few tips and tricks on how the markets work, plus offer advice on what to do in playing in-running and how you can short cut your research with the right stats book.

Finally; the announcement of a calibration of horse racing trading workshop in association with Proform Racing Software (the preferred choice of Racing UK), the seminar will be held on April 28th at the competitive price of £120 and you can secure your place for just £40 deposit. But don’t delay places are filling fast. Grab you place on the racing seminar

This Weeks Show

Become an X-Trader

If you would like to trade alongside Matt and develop your trading you can join the X-Traders community by heading over to Pro X Trading.

You can follow Matt on twitter @mattfinnigan.

Paul Jones – Cheltenham Festival Guide is out on 24th and is recommended on the Show – Grab a £5 discount with this code: PROX – visit Weatherby

You can follow Andy on twitter @bickley14

France v Italy

I feel France will win, talking about stating the obvious! The problem I always have with France is which one will turn up on the day, personally I think they will cover the 19 points handicap but I would like some kind of insurance if they don’t.

I think dutching them to win by 11 – 30 points is best angle in the winning margin market and that pays 1.86 at best prices and if you want to ramp that up you could knock off either end.  Dutching either 16-30 point or 11-25 point winning margin pays 2.43 at best prices. Personally I would go for the safe option and take the 20 point spread that France win between a 11- 30 point margin.

Scotland v England

Some well known ex-players and pundits have totally written off England stating that they will only beat Italy in this year’s tournament. I can see Scotland continuing the trend at Murrayfield, (unbeaten in the last 3 encounters) but I find it hard to go against my heart and back against England.

So I have to switch my thought process and try and assess the game and the conclusion is that I dont think either team will win by a double figure margin. If you dutch Scotland winning margins 1-5 & 6-10 points with England winning margins 1-5 & 6-10 points pays 4/6 (1.67) at best prices, if you want to ramp it up over even money you could drop the England 6-10 points.

Ireland v Wales

My thought process for Sunday’s game is similar to the Calcutta Cup clash, although when I priced up the match I had Ireland at -7 points based on the assumption that the pack will dominate the game. I may use the in-play markets on Betfair before deciding to get involved with the handicap market (-4.5 points on Betfair). But I certainly wouldn’t put off anybody repeating the margin bet highlighted in the Scotland v England, the prices are the same 4/6 (1.67) of either team winning by 1 -10 points and you can drop the 6-10 points if you want to ramp that up over even money.

In Summary

In a tough opening week I am sort of sitting on the fence, you could even say that I am doing that in France match with such a huge spread. Having said that with the number of markets being offered these days by bookmakers there is no reason why you have to stick to the traditional route, if you feel other routes will provide you an in.

I will be back in week 2 when hopefully I will get an idea on the tournament will shape up.

Superbowl XLVI is the main topic of the show with New England Patriots taking on New York Giants on Sunday

Matt Finnigan is joined on the show Andrew Broker from Bettingexpert.com who himself is a Giants fans, so has few conflict of interest when trying to find the best betting angles on the game. Andrew has crunched the number and give you the market pointers that you should be considered and all the stats and trends that you need

Finally; we look at the big premier league match between Chelsea & Arsenal and how the winners and relegation markets are shaping following Man City’s defeat on Wednesday.

This Weeks Show

Become an X-Trader

If you would like to trade alongside Matt and develop your trading you can join the X-Traders community by heading over to Pro X Trading.

You can follow Matt on twitter @mattfinnigan.

Andrew’s Superbowl facts & trends

http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/betting-trends-statistics-super-bowl-46-new-england-patriots-new-york-giants

And here’s the link to Team Rankings red zone data. A great site and good source of stats for traders.

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

You can read Andrews blog at www.bettingexpert.com/blog

You can follow Andrew on twitter @AndrewBexpert

Rugby League is the subject of discussion in this weeks X-Traders Guide, the new Super League season is just over a week away and as Betfair grows so does the opportunities in the rugby league markets.

Matt Finnigan is joined on the show by fellow full-time X-Trader Dave Edwards a self confessed Rugby League nut and he will be sharing his thoughts on the sport and his ambitions for 2012 (his first full year professional)

The X-Movers has made a great start to 2012 and Matt will talk about plans for the summer and how you can get involved, finally the FA Cup 4th round is also covered as well as the transfer deadline.

This Weeks Show

• The X-Movers January Results
• Superleague 2012 & tips on trading the sport
• The FA Cup 4th Round market pointers

Become an X-Trader

If you would like to trade alongside Matt and develop your trading you can join the X-Traders community by heading over to Pro X Trading.

You can follow Matt on twitter @mattfinnigan.

Personally speaking I have no issues with any dress code, I actually like looking smart when I go racing. Although I must admit I never go in winter, mainly because I prefer flat racing to jumps and I tend to go on a spur of the moment if the weather is warm and sunny. My biggest problem is the cost of getting in the courses in the first place, especially the smaller courses like my local (Leicester). For tomorrow’s fixture starts at £12:00 a ticket to me that is just too much for the quality of racing.

The Theme Park Way

I believe the smaller courses like Leicester would increase revenue if they adopted a slightly different approach. I notice that most theme parks offer season pass tickets. Leicester with 6 National Hunt meetings, I think they would be better off offering a NH season pass for say £25.00 for all 6 meetings. This makes the entrance just over £4.00 (if your go all 6 meetings), but at the end of day, plenty would buy the ticket and not go to all meetings.

I would have a guess that Leicester doesnt attract more than 300 paying guests in January & February, it’s overall average attendance for the year is around 1,800 and with plenty of meetings during the summer months, I think that will ramp the overall average.

Following the revamp of the course Towcester offered free admission, although they have introduce a £10 charge on selected meetings. I remember speaking with Kevin Ackerman about the increase in numbers attending the meetings compared to when they charged admission fee’s. He said they had well over 100% increase in attendances since going free and that they had to introduce an entrance fee on Boxing Day & Easter Sunday because the course was bursting at the seems for those days.

I met Kevin before the my very first trading workshop which I held at Towcester back in 2009 and he told me that the course turnover was expected to exceed £2 million that year, but it was the increase corporate activities that paid dividends.

In Summary

It seems that racing goes from one PR disaster to another and they need to get the balance right between people who want to go racing for the love of the sport and those who want to go for the love of drink.

]]> http://www.protradertip.com/a-dot-of-bother/feed/ 0 http://www.protradertip.com/x-traders-guide-week-22/ http://www.protradertip.com/x-traders-guide-week-22/#comments Wed, 18 Jan 2012 14:51:15 +0000 mattfin http://www.protradertip.com/?p=1498

Tennis Trading is the subject of discussion in this weeks X-Traders Guide, if you want to get stuck into trading tennis in 2012 then this show is a must as its overflowing idea’s and snippets of information on the markets.

Matt Finnigan is joined on the show by Scott Ferguson former Head of Betfair Education who combines both punting & trading skills to gain an edge in the markets, Scott also writes a very informative blog called Sport Is Made For Betting

Scott talks through the fundamentals to successful tennis trading, advice on market research and how note making can pay dividends in the long-term, Also discussed the difference between the tours and Grand Slams over other tournaments. Plus resistance points, using the right stats and profiling the players can all help you get and edge.

This Weeks Show

• How you trade the tennis markets
• Any tips to help novices get started
• Importance of profiling players
• Differences between WTA & ATP – Grand Slams & Other events
• Identifying resistance points

Become an X-Trader

If you would like to trade alongside Matt and develop your trading you can join the X-Traders community by heading over to Pro X Trading.

You can follow Matt on twitter @mattfinnigan.

Get Scotts Australian Open Bets

You can follow Scott’s Australian Open Bets at The Shark over the next 10 days

You can follow Scott on twitter @borisranting