North Carolina is always competitive. Even in the wave election of 2018, Democrats won the only one on one statewide race between a Democrat and a Republican 51-49. When it’s a great political climate for Republicans they win by 2 or 3. When it’s a great political climate for Democrats they win by 2 or 3. The state is that closely divided.

This year is no different. PPP’s new statewide poll finds Roy Cooper leading Michael Whatley 47-44 in the US Senate race and Anita Earls leading Sarah Stevens 43-40 in the Supreme Court race. All of the races for Court of Appeals are within three points one way or another.

The races are tight to begin with, and a path to victory exists for the Republicans in them. The undecideds in the Senate race voted for Donald Trump by 46 points last time. The undecideds in the Supreme Court race voted for Donald Trump by 27 points last time. If they end up moving off the fence to the party they voted for in 2024, it would be enough to put the GOP candidates slightly ahead in those races.

Midterm elections are often referendums on the President and North Carolina’s close division extends to feelings about Donald Trump- 47% of voters have a favorable opinion of him and 50% have an unfavorable one. The tightness of the statewide races reflect that tightness in attitudes toward the President.

Democrats are decently well positioned for this fall eight months out from November. But North Carolina never has a blowout election.

PPP interviewed 556 North Carolina voters on March 13th and 14th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%. Full results here

The post North Carolina Is Always Close appeared first on Public Policy Polling.

Public Policy Polling’s newest Texas survey finds no meaningful difference in electability between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton. Cornyn trails James Talarico 44-43 and Paxton trails Talarico 47-45.

While Talarico is seen favorably by Texans (a +6 favorability at 41/35) Paxton and Cornyn are unpopular. Cornyn is more unpopular though. His net favorability is -28 (25/53) while Paxton’s is -24 (30/54).

Cornyn has a problem with the kind of lower propensity Trump voters who fueled the President’s huge win in Texas in 2024. 25% of Trump voters decline to vote for Cornyn in the general election, while only 19% of Trump voters decline to vote for Paxton in the general election.

Paxton has a 55/25 favorability rating with Trump voters in the general electorate, while Cornyn’s is 38/39. This suggests that anti Trump Republicans were critical to Cornyn’s first place finish in the primary on Tuesday.

These numbers suggest a close race regardless of who the GOP nominates. The Texas Senate race will be highly competitive; driven by Talarico’s broad approval, and Cornyn and Paxton’s general election liabilities.

PPP surveyed 576 Texas voters on March 4th and 5th with a margin of error of +/-4.1%. PPP’s poll of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas called James Talarico’s 6-point victory exactly correct. This survey was conducted on behalf of Senate Majority PAC.

Full results here

The post Talarico leads both Cornyn and Paxton appeared first on Public Policy Polling.

Independents tend to decide elections and PPP’s latest national poll finds Donald Trump and Republicans are in a lot of trouble with them.

Just 29% approve of the job Trump is doing to 63% who disapprove of him. Only 64% of the independents who voted for Trump are still happy with the job he’s doing and that’s brought his overall approval with people who voted for him in 2024 down to 80%. This is the weakest we’ve seen him with his base.

Trump’s fall with independent voters is having an impact on the outlook for this fall at the ballot box too. Usually independents are pretty closely divided, with just a small lean in one direction or another. Not this time- Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 51-30 with them.

Thanks to those independent voters, Democrats have a 48-41 generic ballot lead. And there are signs within the numbers that things could get worse for Republicans- among the folks who are undecided only 22% approve of the job Trump is doing to 56% who disapprove.

Generally things break against the party in power in midterms and Trump’s standing with the voters still on the fence speak to a likelihood that will happen again.

After big wins in November the Democratic position seems if anything strengthened one month into 2026.

Full results here

The post Independents Moving Strongly Against Trump, GOP appeared first on Public Policy Polling.

The DSCC recently released a poll that we did for them in Alaska that found Mary Peltola leading Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan 49-47 for the Senate.

The 49-47 is what matters there more than the 2 point margin. PPP has done a lot of polls over the years in red states that found a strong Democratic candidate up 41-39 or something like that but when you dug into the numbers it would turn out 2/3rds of that large bloc of undecideds were Republican leaning and most likely when they moved off the fence the GOP candidate was going to win in the end.

That’s not the case here. With both candidates having near total name recognition, Peltola is already close to the 50% threshold she needs to win. There basically are no undecideds.

It’s not going to be easy but we are seeing more and more of a path to a Democratic Senate. We find leads in North Carolina, Maine, and Alaska, very tight races in Texas and Iowa, and things a lot closer than they should be in places like South Carolina and Kansas.

We haven’t polled Ohio yet this cycle but Sherrod Brown’s long record as a strong candidate certainly makes that a good possibility too. And other races are likely to end up on the map too based on the relative strengths of the candidates.

So there’s not just a path to a Democratic Senate, there are multiple paths. It may require winning a few races where the chances are 25% but if you’re competing everywhere that becomes more likely. It certainly looks like a much better possibility than it did a year ago.

The post Democratic Senate Prospects Looking Up appeared first on Public Policy Polling.

The Cook Political Report ranks 187 House seats as ‘solid Republican.’ In other words, there are 248 seats they think Democrats would win before they won any of the seats on that list.

And that’s why what we found in a recent poll of NY-1, one of those 187 seats, should be so scary to Republicans.

We found the GOP incumbent Nick LaLota leading his Democratic opponent Chris Gallant only 41-38. And only 32% of his constituents approve of the job LaLota is doing to 35% who disapprove.

A 32% approval rating. 41% for re-election. Only a 3 point lead against his Democratic opponent who doesn’t have much name recognition yet. And this is in a ‘solid’ Republican district? That really shows how much trouble the GOP is in in the other 248 districts.

And it shows how important it is for Democrats to compete in as many districts as possible this year.

They might not win all the reach districts but they will siphon off Republican resources having to defend them- and certainly in 2018 Democrats did outright win in some places that were seen as solidly Republican at the beginning of the year. It will happen again this year.

There are a lot more NY-1’s out there at the statewide, Congressional, and legislative levels- places where conventional wisdom might say Democrats don’t have a chance but the current political climate says they do. We need to make sure we don’t leave any of those stones unturned.

The post Republican Struggling in ‘Solid’ GOP District appeared first on Public Policy Polling.

Last night’s 13 point improvement for Democrats relative to 2024 in TN CD 7 was reflective of something PPP is seeing in a lot of its polling- that shift is putting new seats on the map for Democrats.

Last year Bill Huizenga won reelection by 12 points in Michigan’s 4th Congressional District. But our new poll there finds Democratic challenger Sean McCann trailing Huizenga just 44-42…and with a clear path to victory since most undecideds are unhappy with Donald Trump. That’s something we’re seeing in a lot of our polling that may lead to Democratic candidates over performing their current numbers when voters move off the fence next year.

The Cook Political Report reasonably has MI-4 rated as ‘Likely Republican’ based on its voting history. But the map is shifting- we have polled three districts in that rating category in recent months and all three of them- PA-1 and TX-15 as well- have come out as toss ups. We imagine if we polled more ‘Likely Republican’ districts we would find more new opportunities.

We also recently did a poll in a toss up district, PA CD 10, and found it is trending toward a clear Democratic advantage with Janelle Stelson leading Republican incumbent Scott Perry 48-44.

It’s an oversimplification but it may turn out in this climate that the toss ups lean Democratic, the lean Republicans are actually toss ups, and the likely Republicans are only a nominal advantage for the GOP with a clear path to upsets for the Democratic candidates.

We’re also seeing new opportunities crop up for Democrats in races that on paper are even more of a reach. In recent weeks we’ve polled several contests in places that voted for Trump by 15-20 points last year and found that the Republican incumbents are unpopular and their reelections start out with them leading by only mid single digits- and in the low 40s, giving their challengers clear potential to grow as they become better known.

We’re doing more of this sort of polling on the federal level but the same opportunities emerging in Congressional elections are definitely emerging in legislative elections across the country too- Democrats will want to make sure they have serious candidates in any district that was closer than about Trump +20 last year- even if they don’t win they can make Republican incumbents work for it and divert resources from other races.

The post Likely Republican Seats Are The New Toss Ups appeared first on Public Policy Polling.

The post Democrats should swing for the fences in 2026 appeared first on Public Policy Polling.

It’s an over simplification but we tend to think the country is about 45% Democratic, 45% Republican, and 10% voters who are just unhappy with whoever is in charge and flip back and forth from election to election, fueling the kind of volatility we’ve seen in recent American politics.

Two polls we did recently for our friends at House Majority PAC in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District and Arizona’s 6th Congressional District exemplify that. We find Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke leading Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden 44-42 in WI-3 and Democratic challenger Joanna Mendoza leading Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani 42-41 in AZ-6.

In both cases the Republican incumbents are unpopular and the shutdown isn’t helping them. Van Orden has a 38/48 favorability rating and only 36% think he’s doing his job to end the shutdown while 45% think he isn’t. Ciscomani has a 32/49 favorability and only 29% think he’s doing his job to end the shutdown while 46% think he isn’t.

And in both cases we are seeing those voters who are unhappy with everyone moving against them. We polled both these districts at this exact same time last year and in both cases correctly found the Republican leading for reelection. Van Orden was tied with independents, good enough in a district with a GOP party ID advantage. And Ciscomani led by 14 points with them.

The voters who don’t like anyone leaned Republican last year with a Democrat in the White House. It’s a different story now. Van Orden trails Cooke by 9 with independents. And Ciscomani trails Mendoza by 3, a 17 point shift. Democrats are also more unified around their candidate than Republicans are in both districts.

That dynamic has Democrats fueled for big gains over at least the next two and perhaps the next four years.

Other notes:

-Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District was a coin flip race in the first Trump midterm and a new poll we did for Democratic challenger Bob Harvie recently finds him tied with Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick at 41% in this one, even after Fitzpatrick won his race by 13 points last year.

Fitzpatrick is unpopular with a 32% approval rating to 47% who disapprove, and Donald Trump’s unpopularity in the district with a 45/52 approval spread is likely to make it harder for Fitzpatrick to get the kind of crossover support he’s accustomed to. Meanwhile Harvie is well liked among the voters who are familiar with him.

-Finally recent polls we did for the DGA in New Jersey and Virginia found Democrats Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger leading 49-43 and 52-43 respectively. We do not believe these races to be all that competitive.

The post Independents Moving Against GOP in Key Races appeared first on Public Policy Polling.

A new pair of PPP polls in districts that Donald Trump won by 5 points or more last year shows how Democrats are primed for victory even in generally red territory in next year’s midterms.

Our new survey of Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional district, released by our partners at House Majority PAC this week, showed the negative impact the newly passed budget bill is already having on Republican prospects for next year.

By a 24 point margin voters say they’re less likely to vote for Scott Perry because of his support for the bill. That’s helping Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson to an early 46-43 lead over him in a rematch of their contest from last year.

Stelson’s lead is particularly impressive because PA-10 voted for Trump by 5 points last year. But his popularity has declined with his approval rating in the district now under water at -3 (45/48.)

Trump won by an even wider margin of 9 points last year in Iowa’s 1st Congressional district.  But a recent PPP poll for HMP found him under water there now too at 46/47. He looks popular compared to Republican Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks though. She has a -14 approval rating at 31/45.

The joint unpopularity of Trump and Miller-Meeks has Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan leading a rematch of their face off last fall 43-39.

Democrats are primed to expand the map in 2026. If we can help you with anything- seeing the political impact of the Republican budget bill at the state and district level, getting early looks at 2026 races, polling related to things going on in Congress or state legislatures, and of course 2025 races across the country please e-mail us at information@publicpolicypolling.com for the best combination of accuracy and affordability out there!

And PPP would like to congratulate our client Adelita Grijalva on her resounding victory this week in the Democratic primary for Arizona’s 7th Congressional District. After she wins the general she will be a great addition to Congress. Our polling at the outset of the campaign showing her as an overwhelming front runner held up to Tuesday’s results.

The post Unpopular Republican Budget Bill Helping Democrats Lead in Trump Districts appeared first on Public Policy Polling.

PPP saw Zohran Mamdani’s first place finish coming before anyone else did for one simple reason: we polled the 2025 electorate instead of the 2021 electorate.

Usually when polling a primary election pollsters start out with a list of voters who have participated in similar elections in the past.

It was clear in this election though that Mamdani was building a movement that was going to bring a lot of people into the process that had never voted in a city election before. So we made a conscious decision not to require people we polled to have voted in 2021. If they said they were going to vote on our screening question that was good enough.

Tens of thousands of people voted in their first Mayoral election this year. We found those who didn’t vote in 2021 breaking 63-18 for Mamdani. We included them in our poll.

Beyond that this election brought serious demographic change to the electorate. The voters were much younger.

Pollsters know that most of the time it’s very hard to get young people to answer a poll and you often have to weight them up. There was so much enthusiasm from young voters in our raw data that we found 37% of likely voters were under 45 unweighted. Our poll correctly found a much different electorate than usually votes in primary elections. When all the final turnout numbers come in, it will probably turn out we should have projected an even younger electorate.

We appreciate the opportunity to have partnered with Justin Brannan’s campaign on this poll. His politically savvy team also foresaw the changing electorate we saw when we went into the field. He and his folks will continue to do great things for New York City.

PPP’s been at this for a long time. We first came on the national radar in 2008 when our polls tended to show Barack Obama doing better in the primaries than other polls did and tended to be right about that. It was the same dynamic- we polled the 2008 electorate instead of the 2004 electorate.

Our poll showing Mamdani ahead qualifies as one of the biggest outliers that proved to be right in recent polling history. Most polls conducted in the same time period had Cuomo leading by double digits and the best other poll for Mamdani still had him down by 6 points. No herding here.

Over the last couple decades PPP has become one of the most frequently used private Democratic pollsters in the country. Our polling in both 2024 and 2022 was extremely accurate. Campaigns and organizations looking for an accurate poll- combined with affordability and speed- should keep turning to PPP.

And PS- I was so confident in our numbers that I wrote most of this dispatch last Wednesday, six days before the election, right after Marist came out and said Cuomo was still up double digits. We knew the electorate had changed and that our numbers reflected it when others didn’t.

The post Why PPP saw Mamdani’s Win Coming appeared first on Public Policy Polling.