Correct series winner predictions in this round are worth 5 points.

New players, make sure you enter your prediction for how many goals will be scored in the last, Stanley Cup Final game. Existing players, you can enter your prediction again but we will only use your original goals prediction.

The first game of the Western Conference Finals between LA and Phoenix is scheduled for 8:00pm, TODAY. We need picks by 7:00pm Eastern, TODAY (May 13th).

Make sure you check out the standings and scoring through the Semifinals.

Protect this guy and he'll protect your net. (photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images North America)

• While the Rangers were able to get shots through to Braden Holtby and beat attempted shot blocks by the Caps in game five, they were not as effective in game six. The Capitals were able to block 24 Rangers shots on their way to victory. Caps shot blockers looked more patient as they waited for Rangers shooters to find the angle they wanted. The Capitals also employed better gap discipline while defending Rangers with the puck. This has to continue in game seven.
• After losing game five on two Rangers’ power play goals after face off losses during Joel Ward’s late high sticking double minor, the Caps greatly improved their short-handed face off numbers in game six. In game five the Caps were only 13% effective at the dot when a man down. In game six the Capitals won 67% of the draws on the penalty kill. That went a long way to the Caps thwarting all five of the Rangers power play chances including a double minor assessed to Jeff Halpern in the middle of the second period. If the Caps can continue to dominate at the dots, they can control possession and the outcome of game seven.
• The power play goal scored by Alex Ovechkin within the first two minutes of the game was very refreshing to see. The Caps were able to score the first goal which is critical in a tight series and playing a defense first, Dale Hunter system. They were also able to get incredible boards-to-boards puck movement to open the middle and allow Ovi to find space in the slot to rip one past Henrik Lundqvist.
• The Rangers scored their only goal in game six by getting bodies in front of Braden Holtby and disrupting his ability to see and stop the puck. That was also the only time New York was able to do so. The Caps were very effective in boxing out Rangers attackers and allowing Holtby to see shots. Look for a renewed commitment to get to the front of the net by the Rangers bordering on goalie interference in game seven.
• Braden Holtby’s record after a loss continues to be perfect. The kid also had a kid. Good mojo heading into game seven, I think.

Game seven on a Saturday night at Madison Square Garden for a trip to Eastern Conference Finals. This is a game you want to play in as a player. The Caps looked like a very motivated and disciplined hockey team in game six. More of the same is needed in game seven. #Capsin7

Can we keep this paint for a while longer, please? (photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America)

• The New York Rangers owned game five. They out shot the Capitals 38-18 in the game with a whopping 17-6 shots advantage in the first period. The Rangers also out hit the Caps 29-14. The Capitals have to pick up the intensity in game six and push back.
• The Rangers scored the first goal in game five off an Anton Stralman shot where he showed patience and changed his angle of attack to get a shot through the Caps defense and Braden Holtby. The Rangers continued to wait out Caps defenders and get pucks through attempted shot blocks. The Capitals have to adjust. Look for Caps defenders to pressure Rangers players and play a tighter game at the tops of the circles to take away time and space.
• Let’s look at hockey karma for a moment. Dennis Wideman clearly tripped a Rangers player below the Caps’ goal line and got away with it. At that time, I immediately knew that gift would come back to haunt the Caps. Sure enough, Joel Ward took a 4 minute high sticking penalty shortly after Wideman’s transgression. Play hard but play smart.
• Speaking of Joel Ward, despite the popular, casual hockey fan opinion this loss isn’t all on him. I’m pointing the finger at two critical face off losses that led to the Richards and Staal goals. On both of those plays, the Capitals lost defensive zone draws on the penalty kill. The Rangers were able to work the puck back to the point and get shots through failed Capitals’ shot block attempts. For the game, the Caps were only 13% effective at the dot while short-handed. That number has to improve in game six.
• Special teams are always critical in the playoffs. The Capitals did boast a better than 90% penalty kill rate for most of the first two rounds. They have now slipped to a mediocre 85.7% PK as the Rangers have found ways to get pucks to the net. On the power play, the Caps continue to struggle at 17.1% efficiency. Again, winning short-handed face offs is key for improvement on the penalty kill. On the power play, look for personnel changes like removing Aucoin from the second unit and Wideman from the first defense pair.
• After the last two games, Dale Hunter should sit Dennis Wideman for game six. He is a liability. Hunter should also sit his partner Jeff Schultz for the same reason. Keith Aucoin has been invisible and should not get a sweater for the rest of the playoffs.
• It’s a shame that Braden Holtby continues to play well enough to win and gets inconsistent help from his teammates. The player leadership needs to rally the guys around Holtby’s performance. Holtby’s perfect record following a loss will be tested yet again.

The Capitals have faced elimination against the New York Rangers in recent playoffs past. Each time they have found a way to win. #Capsin7

Braden Holtby and the Caps need to regroup and bounce back after game three. (photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images North America)

• The pace of game three was something we have not seen in the 10 previous playoff games played this Spring by the Caps. It was a fun but very nerve-racking game to watch, regardless of the three OT periods it required. Under Dale Hunter, the Caps have been successful by dictating a slower, defensive pace. They should try to return to that style in game four. Especially, with Marian Gaborik emerging as the game three hero for the Rangers. The Caps don’t want to play run-and-gun hockey with the Rangers’ top scoring threats in Gaborik and Brad Richards.
• While Jay Beagle was thrust into the spotlight as a playoffs role player in the first half of these Stanley Cup playoffs, Matt Hendricks stole it in game three. Hendricks went into “beast mode” by punishing the New York Rangers physically and setting up his linemates with prime scoring chances. At times, it looked like he was everywhere on the ice. I think in his mind he was saying, “Every puck is mine.” While he was on the ice, it quite literally, was. As a puck possession line, Beagle, Brouwer, and Hendricks could do some damage in game four.
• Similarly, Alex Ovechkin looked like a very motivated hockey player. After registering an average shift length of 46 seconds in game two, Ovi was given 57 seconds of ice time on the average by Dale Hunter as the Caps held the last change on home ice. Ovechkin responded to the increased time and to the critics of his limited time in game two. Ovi almost ended the game in overtime but the rolling puck he picked up all alone in front of Henrik Lundqvist hit the post.
• Ovechkin’s almost game winner combined with Brouwer’s miss in overtime and a Semin crossbar shot off of King Henrik’s glove looked like a swing in hockey karma and puck luck back in the Rangers’ favor. As long as the Caps keep getting these types of chances, there’s no need to worry. Eventually, those pucks find the back of the net.
• Braden Holtby hasn’t lost 2 games in a row in these playoffs. Let’s see how the kid steps up in game four.
• There are two sides to a loss in extended overtime. Some will say it’s a huge momentum shift in favor of the winners. Others will say that it’s just another game and there is still hockey to be played. Here’s to hoping the Caps stay focused on winning Saturday because they can.

Just like the Boston series, the Capitals need to even up the series with the Rangers, on home ice. Heading back to Madison Square Garden down two games is really not an option. Survive and advance.

Hard work pays off. (photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America)

• On the road, it seems the en vogue thing to do in the NHL is “bend but don’t break”. The Rangers pushed hard in the first 10 minutes of each period. So far, weathering the storm has worked for the Caps and Braden Holtby has bailed them out when needed. How long can this last in the modern NHL that favors run and gun hockey?
• With each game, the Caps’ role players like Jay Beagle, Jason Chimera, Matt Hendricks, Mike Knuble, and Joel Ward seem to get more hungry. They make the little plays that support the Hunter game plan. Look for more plays like Chimera using his speed to score goals or Mike Knuble beating out an icing to keep the clock moving late in a game.
• There was much belly aching about Ovi’s ice time. I’m in the “play your best guys unless they’re injured” camp. However, there is something to be said for using Alex Ovechkin in an efficient way. Ovechkin skated 18 shifts at an average of 45 seconds per shift, for 13:36 total ice time. When he was on the ice, it looked like he had some room to make plays. He was able to gain the middle of the ice a few times and had a couple of chances go awry due to bouncing pucks on the horrible Madison Square Garden ice. Ovechkin was able to convert on the power play by moving to the high slot area and throwing a puck on net. In games three and four, as the home team, the Caps will have the right to last change and get the match-ups they want. This should favor Ovi’s ice time and his ability to find open ice.
• In game one, the Caps hit a couple posts that likely would have changed the outcome of the game had the puck found the twine. Game two saw the iron sing in favor of the Capitals a few times. I’m a big believer in hockey karma. Hopefully, everything is balanced now.

The Washington Capitals can take an early lead in this series. They return home to the Verizon Center having accomplished another vital split on the road. Ovi and the Caps silenced the critics at MSG. It’s time for them to rock the red.

Jay Beagle and the Caps face a familiar playoff opponent in the Rangers (photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images North America)

After going the distance against the defending Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins, the Caps find themselves facing a familiar playoffs opponent in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Washington Capitals will face a New York Rangers team that they have bested twice as the favorite, in recent years. This year, the Capitals enter yet another best of seven against the Rangers as underdogs.

Interesting Stats

• Many people argue that special teams are the difference as Stanley Cup playoffs series drag on and teams move deeper into the playoffs. The Caps and Rangers power plays operated at almost the same efficiency in their first round match-ups at 15.8% and 15.6%, respectively.
• The difference in special teams between Washington and New York is the 7 point gap in penalty killing. The Caps boast the second best PK in the first round at 91.3%. The Rangers posted a seventh best 84.7% penalty kill.
• While it’s generally accepted that teams that score first have a better chance of winning, these two teams seem to really like holding a lead through the first two periods. Both the Caps and Rangers had perfect records in games where they led at the end of the second period.

Game One Goalie Match-Up

Rookie sensation, Braden Holtby has to face yet another one of the Eastern Conference’s elite netminders in Henrik Lundqvist. Holtby was able to match last year’s Conn Smythe winner, Tim Thomas. King Henrik has slightly better numbers than Holtby. This is probably due to the shutout he posted against the Ottawa Senators in the first round. It will be interesting to watch this match-up as the series progresses.

How the Caps can win the series

• Again, get to the net. Lundqvist can be beaten with traffic in front, deflections, and chances from recbounds.
• Don’t let the Rangers’ skill guys like Brad Richards and Marian Gaborik get rolling. The Rangers are a very talented team. Look for Dale Hunter to continue line matching against John Tortorella’s best.
• While all the line matching is going on, the Caps third and fourth line guys need to step up, again. Players like Jay Beagle, Matt Hendricks, Jason Chimera, Mike Knuble, and Joel Ward have to play important roles.

X-Factors

• Dale Hunter’s line up decisions defy all logic sometimes. However, Hunter’s game day rosters, line combinations, and in-game, hard line matching seem to put Caps players in positions to win. Dale Hunter will now be facing one of the league’s best personnel matching coaches in John Tortorella.
• As teams get deeper in the playoffs, their best players must be their best players. The Washington Capitals need Alexander Ovechkin to lead them to the next level. He showed what he is capable of in a second round match-up against the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2009. We also saw Alex Semin finally show up in the playoffs, against the Bruins. Mike Green played much better defensively and even scored a goal. Nicklas Backstrom scored a critical overtime game winner against Boston. It’s time for the Caps’ core to extend that success and make more history.

Schedule

** IF NECESSARY

Season Series

Rangers (2-2)     Caps (2-2)

Top Three Playoffs Scorers

Rangers

1st: Brad Richards - Goals:2, Assists: 3, Points: 5

T-2nd: Ryan Callahan - Goals: 2, Assists: 2, Points: 4

T-2nd: Anton Stralman - Goals:2, Assists: 2, Points: 4

Capitals

1st: Alex Ovechkin – Goals: 2, Assists: 3, Points: 5

T-2nd: Nicklas Backstrom - Goals: 1, Assists: 3, Points: 4

T-2nd: Brooks Laich - Goals: 1, Assists: 3, Points: 4

Special Teams

Rangers 

Shots Per Game: 29.7

Shots Against Per Game: 31.1

Penalty Kill: 84.6%

Power Play: 15.6%

Capitals

Shots Per Game: 29.6

Shots Against Per Game: 35.4

Penalty Kill: 91.3%

Power Play: 15.8%

Correct series winner predictions in this round are worth 2 points.

New players, make sure you enter your prediction for how many goals will be scored in the last, Stanley Cup Final game. Existing players, you can enter your prediction again but we will only be using your goals prediction made before the first round.

The first game of the Western Conference Semifinal between the Predators and Coyotes is scheduled for TONIGHT at 9:00pm Eastern. We need picks by 8:00pm Eastern, TODAY!

I already started building the form for the second round. We’ll post that when the Conference Quarterfinals concludes.

It's time for Ovi to make a little history (photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images North America)

• In the three games the Capitals won, they matched the Bruins’ physical play. In a game seven, when you have learned the tendencies of your opponent over the previous six games, the ability to wear them down and impose your will physically, is key. The Caps should chip pucks to dead areas of the ice and work the Bruins along the walls and in the corners to force turnovers.
• A strong, physical neutral zone presence is also key. As we saw in the game six overtime, turnovers in the neutral zone are deadly. The Capitals should make every attempt to make simple, quick plays through the neutral zone. This means dumping or flipping  pucks into the Boston end and not trying to make tape-to-tape passes when met with resistance.
• Neither team can afford to play down a goal. It is too difficult to make a comeback and overtake the team that establishes an early lead in this series. The Caps need to score first and play very well in their own end to increase their chances of winning.
• Players like Dennis Wideman and Nicklas Backstrom need to step up after their gaffs in game six. Backstrom’s lazy backcheck and neutral zone turnover resulted in two Bruins’ goals including the Tyler Seguin, overtime game winner. On that game winning goal, Dennis Wideman was shading to the right, out of position as Milan Lucic fed Seguin on the left side.
• It’s time for Alexander Ovechkin to make a little history.

Game seven, in Boston, against the defending Stanley Cup champions is a huge test for the Capitals as they look to take the next step in pursuing the Cup. As I wrote before the series began, the Bruins have a team character edge over the Capitals that favors Boston in a prolonged series. The Bruins played in several long series and forced game sevens on their way to the Stanley Cup, last year. That recent success gives them experience and a big advantage over the Washington Capitals in this situation.

Alzner and the Caps need to continue playing physical, disciplined hockey (photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images North America)

• The Boston Bruins dominated 5-on-5 play. They recorded 44 shots while the Caps only placed 15 shots on net at even strength. The Caps have held an advantage in special teams. They converted on the power play with a Semin snipe, while getting 6 shots in 3 power play chances. The Bruins only recorded one shot in their only power play chance in the third period as the Caps were holding the lead. Again, if the Caps can find a way to match the Bruins at even strength, they should grab the lead in the series.
• While the Bruins clearly tried to rekindle some of the after-the-whistle play in the beginning of the game, the Capitals matched that with hard physical play in between the whistles. Bruins’ forward Shawn Thornton went right to big John Erskine in the first few minutes of the game and tried to start an altercation. The Caps played a hard, disciplined game. Mike Knuble’s holding infraction was the only penalty committed by the Caps. Washington also out hit the Bruins, 44 to 34. The hit counts are probably indicative of the amount of time Boston possessed the puck. Nevertheless, it also means that Washington took away space from Boston. Another key to take the lead in this series in game five.
• Starting the game with a first shot, Marcus Johansson goal from a beautiful feed from Brooks Laich was perfect. Fast starts and early leads in the playoffs grab the momentum in each game. At TD Garden in game five, the Caps should try to score early in the game to take the crowd out of it and play with the lead.
• It was interesting to see Alex Semin and Alex Ovechkin sit out most of the third period as Dale Hunter sent his best defensive forwards to hold the lead. Heading up to Boston and not having the luxury of the last change, might hamper Hunter’s ability to match personnel with Claude Julien in game five.
• The Caps allowed 45 shots to reach Braden Holtby. He stopped 44 of them. Questions, answered. Braden Holtby was fine after game three.

Game five presents an  opportunity for the Capitals to finally control the series and put the Bruins on the brink of elimination. They should enter the contest with confidence. Having split in Washington and Boston, there is no such thing as home ice advantage in this series. However, the Caps could easily return to DC on Sunday having to play a desperation game to stay alive in the series and force a game seven. So, it would be best if the Capitals show a little desperation in game five and return with a lead in the series.