Guest Blog - PV-Tech

Japan PV Market: 2012 – the year of make or break

jm@solarbuzz.com (Junko Movellan) — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 16:35:55 GMT

In spite of the devastating disasters which struck Japan in March 2011, the PV market continued growing and exceeded the 1-GW mark in 2011. The market growth – 30% - was far less than in 2009 and 2010, when it exceeded 100%. China was twice as big as Japan in 2011, with the national Feed-in tariff (FIT) policy and ample of module supplies. This year, Japan embarking on a road to higher growth, by finally implementing a true FIT like other leading PV counties, and by diversifying its market beyond the residential segment.

Global standards can accelerate the time to market for PV products

ajones@madico.com (Marina Temchenko) — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 19:22:55 GMT

PV is a global market, but there are currently no global certification standards. As the module market space continues to expand in size and numbers of manufacturers, global regulatory groups are challenged to write and enforce global material and module standards. Currently material and module manufacturers are forced to certify, and develop, according to multiple regional requirements. For the material developer, regulatory approval on both materials and modules takes upwards of a year. As it cannot be conducted contiguous to other development steps, this is a ‘direct add-on’ to the time lag between innovation investment and the profit return.

PV inverter shipments in 2011: 23GW or 26GW?

hwicht@isuppli.com (Henning Wicht) — Tue, 14 Feb 2012 16:15:22 GMT

The PV inverter industry did a good job limiting production and clearing excessive inventory levels in 2011. After over shipping about 3GW in 2010 to the global market place the inverter industry was able to meet 2011 installation demand via consumption of these excess plus new shipments. 2011 shipments were based on better demand-matched production rates then the year before when production constraints helped stimulate over ordering and over production later in the year.

What is the real PV technology roadmap?

finlay.colville@solarbuzz.com (Finlay Colville) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 11:48:02 GMT

Increasing panel efficiencies and power ratings represents a key deliverable from the PV industry today. These requirements are not simply long-term objectives for the industry as a whole: they are essential at the company level to differentiate leading suppliers within an overcrowded and highly competitive manufacturing environment. Efficiency enhancements typically require changes in manufacturing process flow and materials (raw and consumable) used in production. Ideally, the technologies that drive these changes will be those featured within a technology roadmap.

OUTLOOK ’12: Asia polysilicon likely to be soft on economy, trade

icisnews.asia@icis.com (Felicia Loo) — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:06:45 GMT

SINGAPORE (ICIS)—Polysilicon spot prices in Asia are likely to be depressed for the first half of next year because tougher financing in debt-stricken Europe will dampen solar investments and the unfolding solar trade row between the US and China may affect the market, traders said.

PV module costs and prices: what is really happening now?

swilkinson@pv-tech.org (Sam Wilkinson) — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 13:30:06 GMT

PV-Tech recently announced that its most read blog post of 2011 was an article from IMS Research entitled ‘PV module costs and prices – what is really happening?’, written almost 18 months ago in August 2010. The popularity of this post clearly says something about what the PV industry was talking about throughout all of last year, and still will be talking about in 2012. Looking back now at the article I thought it would be interesting to revisit some of the predictions made versus what happened in reality, as well as considering what the future holds 12 months on.

NPD Solarbuzz: Top-10 PV cell producers in 2011

finlay.colville@solarbuzz.com (Finlay Colville) — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 05:52:25 GMT

Not withstanding the tumultuous year for solar cell and thin-film manufacturers, the top-10 rankings for 2011 saw only a few changes in position from 12 months ago. Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers maintained their prominence, securing 8 of the top-10 positions. But the number-one position in 2011 goes to First Solar, the only thin-film manufacturer on the list.

Could PV installations really have reached 26GW in 2011?

Ash.Sharma@imsresearch.com (Ash Sharma) — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 16:45:22 GMT

The simple answer is yes. Certainly enough modules and inverters were sold, and if installations really did hit 7.5GW in Germany then this would undoubtedly mean that at least 26GW was installed globally last year, with Germany retaining its position as the largest market, followed closely by Italy. We’re still finalising our data for 2011, but we now estimate up to 26.5GW could have been installed last year following the phenomenal year-end rally in Germany. This would have meant an incredible 10 GW was installed in the last quarter of the year – the first time this has ever happened and more than the whole amount installed in all of 2009!

Unfair trade, or getting whopped: SolarWorld

joeberwind@me.com (Joseph Berwind) — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 10:02:29 GMT

The US International Trade Commission voted unanimously on Friday in a preliminary ruling on the antidumping petition filed by SolarWorld and five other companies calling for countervailing duties against Chinese solar companies. It’s officially ‘game on’ now as the US ITC will now proceed with a full investigation. But is it ‘game over’ for SolarWorld and those companies failing to lower their prices, open new solar electric markets, and compete to win?

German Federal Network Agency publishes data on installations from January to September of 2011

t.vonversen@eupd-research.com (Till von Versen) — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 17:43:10 GMT

According the Federal Network Agency, only 3.35 GWp of PV systems were installed in Germany in the first 9 months of 2011. In comparison to last year, this represents a market volume decrease of 40%. In 2010, 5.53 GWp were installed in September alone. Market experts currently estimate that the total additional installations in 2011 will amount to 5.5 GWp. This would mean that the German market would be in a state of regression for the first time, at 25% below the installation rate of the previous year.

PV equipment backlog becomes an US$8 billion elephant in the room

finlay.colville@solarbuzz.com (Finlay Colville) — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 11:05:41 GMT

While delivering GW-levels of manufacturing equipment during 2H’11 that is already surplus to market requirements is bad enough, excessive tool backlogs pose yet another worry that needs to be factored into revenue guidance for 2012.

100GW of demand, and the coming inflection point in the US solar market

richard@keiser-analytics.com (Richard Keiser) — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 09:51:39 GMT

Non-linear systems are often difficult to understand. The famous “penny game” is a good example. In this game, a hypothetical person is given one penny (or one euro cent) on the first day, two pennies on the second day, four pennies on the third day, etc., and then asked to guess the total value of the pennies at the end of one month. Very few people guess correctly – US$21 million – or appreciate that 75% of that value is created on the last two days.

PV equipment suppliers can benefit from tracking investment cycles, not market demand

finlay.colville@solarbuzz.com (Finlay Colville) — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 19:23:55 GMT

Forecasting new order intake from PV capacity expansions and technology inflection points remains a challenge for the PV equipment supply-chain. As many of the leading, public-listed, tool suppliers prepare to report results for Q3 2011, the focus will be firmly on guidance for 2012 and the revenues that may emerge for new products recently launched.

The next big US$6 billion in thin-film manufacturing investments

finlay.colville@solarbuzz.com (Finlay Colville) — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 11:14:02 GMT

Forecasting thin-film investments and capacity expansions has never been an exact science. However, with the exception today of First Solar, there are few market-based arguments to support the immediate capacity expansion of most thin-film fabs presently struggling to match the downward crystalline silicon cost and price curve.

The shifting sands of solar trading

mark.bachman@aurigausallc.com (Mark Bachman) — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 17:09:04 GMT

We are abandoning our idea to selectively establish long-positions with certain names within the solar sector. Investor sentiment is at an all-time low and looks to only sour more as we approach the third quarter earnings period. We withdraw our previous idea to selectively buy a few names for a 2H11 trade into a solar “gold-rush” as our early signs of improving fundamentals appear to now be a mirage rather than an oasis.

2012: A fundamental shift in Germany’s market drivers?

p.bhamre@eupd-research.com (Parag Bhamre) — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 11:35:12 GMT

Feed-in-tariffs (FiT) as incentive mechanisms are increasingly gaining popularity. China recently announced a new feed-in tariff scheme for PV to complement its rapidly expanding module manufacturing capacity. Other countries such as Germany and Italy, which have established FiT schemes, nevertheless are continuously adjusting the FiTs to encourage balanced growth in the market. But in the future, will designing FiTs be the sole important factor affecting the growth of photovoltaics in the developed PV markets?

Pressure mounts on European CIGS equipment suppliers in wake of Veeco departure

finlay.colville@solarbuzz.com (Finlay Colville) — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 17:51:34 GMT

As leading CIGS manufacturers and equipment suppliers in Europe prepare for quarterly and half-year reporting during August, the impact of Veeco’s parting comments may force a closer examination of existing market-share adoption rates and business-unit operating margins. The company’s rationale for exiting the CIGS systems business was based on its assessment that “the timeframe and cost to commercialization [of CIGS tooling] are not acceptable,” coupled with “the lower-than-expected end-market acceptance for CIGS technology.” Rather than speculating whether Veeco’s prepared remarks will—or will not—have any tangible effect on investor confidence levels across the CIGS community as a whole, it is perhaps more prudent to revisit the fortunes of other PV equipment suppliers that have been championing CIGS in support of dedicated product portfolios offered to the market.

Understanding effective Tier 1 PV capacity requires new methodology

finlay.colville@solarbuzz.com (Finlay Colville) — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 08:39:28 GMT

As PV manufacturers prepare for Q2’11 reporting, the need to understand accurate industrywide capacity levels has become essential. Currently, much of the industry is addressing the prospect of widespread production cutbacks to allow record module inventory levels to be worked through. While in contrast, some Tier 1 producers continue to operate at close to full capacity utilization.

DECC takes one month to do nothing

ehughes@pv-tech.org (Emma Hughes) — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 11:24:54 GMT

The UK solar industry’s worst fears have today been realised as Government ploughs ahead with its proposed feed-in tariff cuts. Paying absolutely no attention to industry’s kicking and screaming, the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has kept to its original plan and imposed ridiculously reduced rates of as little as 8.5p per kilowatt hour.

Prognosis looks bleak for successful completion of California Solar Initiative program by 2016

glenn.harris@suncentric.com (Glenn Harris) — Thu, 26 May 2011 21:24:17 GMT

Guest blogger Glenn Harris of SunCentric believes that the goals of the ongoing California Solar Initiative program will not be achieved based on a close reading of the latest data. He says that based on his group’s analysis, “we see no meaningful signs of acceleration that would allow us to project that the program can meet its requirement.”