Rays Index

Gregg Zaun Picks Brewers Over Rays

The Professor — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 19:38:51 +0000

Buster Olney is reporting that Gregg Zaun has agreed to a 1-year deal with the Brewers for a guaranteed $2.15 million. He will receive $1.9 million in 2010 with a $2.25 million team option in 2011 with a $250K buyout.

We feel like we did not appreciate Zaun enough while he was with the Rays. how often do you get a player that has 5 letters in his first name and 3 of them are Gs? So we will take this moment to link to the greatest official player website of all time. Behold the greatness: GreggZaun.com

Zaun Has Physical Scheduled Today, Could Sign By Tonight

The Professor — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 15:56:26 +0000

[Update] Adam McCalvy is reporting that Zaun is close to signing with the Brewers.

[10:56] Gregg Zaun appeared on Toronto radio station 590 this morning.

On when he would sign with a new team: “Possibly by the end of the day.”

On why he couldn’t say who is signing with: “I’ve got to go pass a physical first.”

On whether his new team would be Milwaukee, Colorado, Tampa Bay or Seattle: “Yes, it is one of those teams.”

Our question is: Would the Rays require a physical to re-sign their own player? Maybe it is a league requirement for any free agent. We are not sure. If not, this suggests that Zaun is set to sign with a team other than the Rays by the end of the day. This leaves the Rays one step closer to John Jaso or Jose Lobaton as the backup catcher.

[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss The Farm System Rankings, The Ramon And Longo Versus Gordon

The Professor — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 13:28:22 +0000

The Rays jumped back up a couple of spots in this year’s rankings of the top farm systems by Baseball America. The Rays are second, behind only the Rangers, who repeat in the top spot.

The Rays will need a strong draft next summer if they want to stay near the top. The top 3 players in the organization, Desmond Jennings, Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson could all see time in the big leagues this year and may no longer count as prospects in 2011. Of course the Rays will have at least 4 picks in the first two rounds that could go a long ways towards replenishing the system.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

Marc Topkin reports that the Rays have released Ramon Ramirez, opening up a spot on the 40-man roster. [The Heater]
In addition to the Rays, the Brewers and the Rockies are interested in signing Gregg Zaun. [MLB Trade Rumors]
Dock of the Rays examines what the various BJ Upton projections for 2010. [Dock of the Rays]
Jason Bartlett returned to his minor league roots and spoke to the local paper. [Democrat and Chronicle]
Evan Longoria or Gordon Beckham? Seems like a no-brainer, right? Well, apparently you do need a brain. [Rise of the Rays]
Gabe Kapler one of the best Red Sox of the decade? OK. [Fire Brand of the American League]
A former Devil Ray now runs a golf website. [St. Pete Times]

Two Years Ago On Rays Index

The Professor — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 16:00:10 +0000

Two years ago on Rays Index we speculated that Elijah Dukes’ latest blow up was premeditated to force a trade. Dukes was traded to the Nationals later in the day.

Elijah Dukes Really Doesn’t Want To Play For The Tampa Bay Rays [Rays Index]

More To Burrell Vs Bradley Than Attitude Worries

The Professor — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 13:30:12 +0000

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the long-rumored deal of Pat Burrell for Milton Bradley is “still a strong possibility.” The sticking point appears to still be how much of Bradley’s contract the Cubs are willing to swallow.

Both Burrell and Bradley make $9 million next season. That is the final year of the deal for Burrell while Bradley is set to make $12 million in 2011. The hold up is likely how much the Rays would be responsible for the 2011 salary.

There have been several reports that the Rays will only do this deal on their terms. The Cubs on the other hand may be trying to be creative without meeting the Rays price. So while the two sides may be “close,” they may not actually be that close.

Of course, the big debate among Raysheads is whether the Rays should make this deal. Most seem to agree that Bradley represents a significant upgrade over Burrell on the field. The disagreement seems to lie in how much of a distraction and detriment Bradley’s well-documented temper-tantrums will be.

Make no mistake…There is much more to this trade than just Bradley’s bat and attitude. Let’s break it down…

PRO-TRADE

Bradley is 18 months younger.
Bradley has the better bat. In 2007 and 2008 Bradley posted OPS seasons of .947 and .999. Burrell’s best single season OPS was .920. Back in 2002. And Bradley can get on base. He has had 3 seasons with an OBP greater than .400. Burrell has done that once.
Bradley can play the field if necessary.
Bradley is a switch-hitter.
Bradley might miss some games, but he will still out-produce Burrell even if he plays 30-40 fewer games.
Burrell is not well-liked in the clubhouse either and had a much-publicized run-in with Carl Crawford last season.
Bradley’s attitude problems are overrated. He seems to do fine in smaller markets. Joe Maddon is the perfect manager to keep him happy and in-check. And even if his attitude problem is a problem, there is still a net gain between the upgrade in production as compared to any cost to the team as a result of his attitude.
Did you see Burrell play last year? That dude sucks.

ANTI-TRADE

Much of Burrell’s problems in 2009 can be attributed to nagging injuries.
He is only 33 years old and there is no reason to think that his career would just fall off the cliff that quickly.
While Bradley was great in 2007 and 2008, his 2009 was not so great. He lost much of his power last year. His OPS went from .999 in 2008 to .775, due in large part to a 170 point drop in SLG. His corresponding Isolated Power (ISO) went from .242 to .140 without a significant dropoff in flyball rate. In fact, his home runs per flyball were way off from 21.2% with Texas to 12.2% with the Cubs. That number was 18.3% in 2007 in pitcher-friendly parks in Oakland and San Diego.
Playing the outfield is not necessary as the Rays need a DH. However, if it does become necessary (inter-league games, playoffs, injuries) Burrell’s shortcomings in the outfield are not much worse than Bradley. Bradley played 109 games in the outfield last season and posted a -4.1 UZR. In 2008, Burrell played 155 games in the outfield with a -4.3 UZR.
Bradley is injury-prone. He has played 110 games three times in 10 seasons. Even in 2008 when he was primarily a DH for the Rangers, he missed 36 games. And keep in mind how cautious the Rays are with injuries. When was the last time a stint on the 15-day DL lasted only 15 days? Missing 30 games with other teams would probably translate to 45 days on the DL with the Rays.
And while Bradley may give the Rays a better chance to win in 120 games he plays. His time on the DL puts the Rays in a big hole in the 40 games he will miss. Not only will an inferior player take his spot in the lineup, but there is also the cost of shuffling the roster and adding another player to the payroll.
2009 should be an embarrassment to Burrell and he should be motivated to come back in better shape and ready to prove that last season was a fluke.
Burrell is a free agent at the end of the season and will be motivated to play for his next contract.
Keeping Burrell means the Rays are not on the hook for any money in 2010 that can be spent elsewhere on the roster.
Have you seen Bradley play? That dude is batshit crazy.

Our stance all along has been that Bradley WILL do something to annoy his teammates and piss off the fans. If you are cool with that, then fine. But once you get past the tantrums, there are other reasons to be concerned. Is he still a better option than Burrell? Maybe. But we don’t think it is as clear-cut as some want you to believe.

The Rays Index Confidence Graph

The Professor — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 11:00:56 +0000

The Rays Confidence Graph will appear every Thursday and is a look at how much confidence Rays fans have in the Tampa Bay Rays. The graph is designed to give us a look at how our emotional bias as Rays fans fluctuates through time. The “confidence” in the team is an inexact measure of how fans feel about the team’s current strength as well as how much confidence fans have in the franchise for the next 3-4 years. Notes on this week’s agida-level can be found after the graph..

Notes on the RI Confidence Graph…

The most common response for “Confidence in 2010 Rays” was 8 with 35.3%.
The most common response for “Confidence in future of franchise” was 9 with 27.6%.
The most common response for “Confidence in Joe Maddon” was 7 with 23.1%.

Projected 2010 Tampa Bay Rays 40-Man Roster And Payroll

The Professor — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 18:00:54 +0000

Earlier today we projected the 2010 25-man roster. Now let’s look at what that means for the 40-man roster and the opening day payroll.

40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…

Notes on the 40-man roster projection

Ages are as of today. Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster. Italicized players are currently on the 40-man roster but are not projected to be on the roster in 2010.
The Rays now have 40 players on the 40-man roster after the recent additions of Desmond Jennings, Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Torres. However, Elliot Johnson and Mitch Talbot are candidates to be traded or designated for assignment as they are out of minor league options and not likely to be on the big league roster unless somebody is injured. Gabe Gross and Dioner Navarro are both candidates to be non-tendered to traded.
The Rays have 10 players that will be arbitration-eligible following this season. Salaries for 8 of those players are guestimations at this point based on other arbitration-eligible players in recent years that play the same position, have similar service times and comparable stats. Last year, we missed the five arbitration cases by a total of $300K and nailed 2 right on the head. Anybody you think we are way off on?
The opening day payroll projects to be $63.0 million, but will certainly go up with free agent signings (bullpen) and any additional long-term contracts given to young players (Upton, Garza, Bartlett). Of course, there are places where the Rays can save money, if they choose to trade a player like Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena, both of whom are entering the final years of their current deals. Combined, those two players will account for about one-third of the 2010 payroll. We are including the $700K used to buy out team options. While not officially part of the payroll, it is certainly a cost that must be factored.

(1) Based only on players currently within the organization and will be updated when trades are consumated and free agents are signed.
(2) Once a player is added to the 40-man roster, the team can ‘option’ the player to the minors 3 times. A team cannot be charged with using more than one option in a given season even if a player is demoted to the minors several times that year. An option is not used if a player is added to the 40-man roster midseason unless he is sent back to the minors at some point. An option is only used if a player spends more than 20 days in the minors while on the 40-man roster. A player with more than 5 years experience can refuse a minor league assignment, so we list those players as having no options.
(3) Years remaining under control of franchise before free agency eligibility. A player can become a free agent after 6 years of Major League service time.
(4) First, second and third year players will have their salaries determined by the team, but will fall close to the major league minimum which is $400K in ‘10. Minor leaguers on the 40-man for the first time make $33,750 and second-year players (or players with at least 1 day of major league experience) make twice that amount. We are not including signing bonuses or incentives.
* Players with at least 3 years since their big league debut. These players must clear optional waivers in order to be demoted to the minors even if they have options remaining.

Projected 2010 Tampa Bay Rays 25-Man Roster

The Professor — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 17:00:52 +0000

25-Man Roster Projection and Lineup (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…

Notes on the 25-man roster projection…

LINEUP: The questions here are catcher, second base and right field. The catcher position only got more complicated by the addition of Kelly Shoppach. It seems unlikely that the Rays would enter the 2010 season with both Shoppach and Dioner Navarro. Look for Shoppach to start versus lefties and possibly part-time versus righties. With Gabe Kapler being re-signed, he will start versus lefties in right field, which likely pushes Ben Zobrist to to the infield to be the most-days second baseman. That opens the door for Matt Joyce to be the right fielder versus righties.
BENCH: Willy Aybar and Gabe Kapler are locks. Sean Rodriguez will likely see time at both middle infield spots and the corner outfield positions. The big question is the second catcher. If Dioner Navarro is not brought back, the Rays could bring back Gregg Zaun or somebody similar to be part of a platoon. Or the Rays could go with either John Jaso or Jose Lobaton. Both represent cheaper options and have shown they can hit righties in the minors. But are either ready to start 40-50 games in the big leagues?
ROTATION: The first four are set with James Shields, Matt Garza, David Price and Jeff Niemann. The final spot will almost certainly go to Wade Davis, unless the Rays pursue a veteran starting pitcher and want Big Dub to get a little more seasoning in triple-A.
BULLPEN: JP Howell, Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler are locks. We think Andy Sonnanstine is in. Lance Cormier may be also, but do the Rays need him and Sonny? Randy Choate will be the lefty-specialist. Jesse Chavez is just a guess right now as the Rays will likely add one or two relievers through free agency or trades.
WHO’S OUT: In addition to Dioner Navarro, we don’t see a spot for Gabe Gross who is arbitration eligible.

Wait…So Who Is Going To Be Rays Second Catcher?

The Professor — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 14:30:10 +0000

Yesterday, the Rays acquired Kelly Shoppach from Cleveland. The move did nothing to clear up the catching position for 2010. In fact, it just made the situation a bit more complicated.

Assuming Shoppach is one of two catchers on the opening day roster, the question then becomes: Who will be the second? There are several options…

Dioner Navarro (as part of a platoon) – These are the top two catchers in the organization right now, so this may seem like the obvious choice. However, both hit right-handed pitchers about as well as James Shields hits charging batters. And with about 100 games against righties, that doesn’t seem very productive.
Dioner Navarro (as backup) – The Rays could give Shoppach 110-120 starts and let Navi get the rest. The upside is the Rays could get lucky with Shoppach posting a strong OBP versus righties. The problem here is that Shoppach would get all the starts versus lefties, leaving Navi to only play against pitchers he doesn’t fare well against. Also, Navi is arbitration-eligible and his salary will be based on being a starter the last two seasons. $2.0-2.5 million is a lot for a backup catcher on a team with a tight budget.
Gregg Zaun (as part of a platoon) – This may be the ideal situation for the Rays as Zaun hits righties well, is solid defensively and provides leadership. However, with several teams reportedly interested, the Rays may be out of luck if another teams is willing to give Zaun more than 50-60 starts.
Shawn Riggans (as backup) – This may be the “if all else fails” option. Like Shoppach and Navi, Riggans hits lefties better. With Shoppach on board, Joe Maddon will want to give him his rest versus righties so Riggans is not an ideal backup.
[Insert catcher here via trade or free agency] (as part of a platoon) – If Zaun signs elsewhere, the Rays will likely set their sights elsewhere. But who? We can speculate, but knowing the Rays it will be somebody that is not on anybody’s radar.
John Jaso or Jose Lobaton (as part of a mini-platoon) – Let’s say Shoppach gets all 60 starts versus left-handers and half of the starts versus right-handers. That would be about 110-120 starts. That leaves 40-50 starts versus righties. Jaso and Lobaton are both on the 40-man roster. Both have big league experience. Both are cheap. And both hit righties better than lefties (Lobaton: .779 career OPS in the minors vRHP, .629 vLHP; Jaso: .847 vRHP, .760 vLHP). But is either ready to hit big league pitching and is either ready defensively? Jaso threw out only 17% of would-be base stealers in triple-A last season while Lobaton was a little better at 28% in double-A and triple-A combined.

We have to admit, the final option is the one that we are warming up to quickly. Why not trade/non-tender Navarro and let Jaso and Lobaton compete for the backup job in spring training. Best man wins. It would be Andre the Giant versus Hulk Hogan (if Andre the Giant was 6-1 and from Venezuela). The ancillary benefit is that the Rays would save ~$2.0 million that could be better spent in the bullpen, or on a quarterback for the Florida Tuskers.

[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss Non-Tender Candidates, Carefully Worded Statements And Navi’s Future

The Professor — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 13:33:44 +0000

If you missed it last night because your significant other was making you watch “The Biggest Loser,” the Rays did offer arbitration to Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse, but not Russ Springer. Zaun and Shouse have until December 7 to accept or decline those offers.

The next important dates for the Rays are December 10 and 12.

December 10 is the Rule 5 draft. Aneury Rodriguez is a candidate to be selected off the Rays roster by another team.

December 12 is the deadline to tender contracts to all players with less than six years of service time, including those that are arbitration eligible. Two of these players, Gabe Gross and Dioner Navarro are candidates to be non-tendered.

So don’t be surprised if the next Rays to be traded are Gross and Navi. The Rays won’t receive much in return (a mid-level prospect?), but it is better than just letting them walk as free agents.

Either way, we have probably seen the last of the Gabe-of-the-Day and The Fat Catcher eras.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

From Marc Topkin: “Executive VP Andrew Friedman said there’s no thought right now about trading All-Star LF Carl Crawford and the that the mutual goal remains a long-term deal.”…well, that was carefully worded. The right offer comes along and the Rays will start thinking about it real quick. [The Heater]
In the same piece, Marc Topkin reports that Fernando Perez is “a little behind” in his rehab from shoulder surgery but should be ready for opening day. [The Heater]
Around the Majors takes an in-depth look at what the Kelly Shoppach trade means for the Rays, Gregg Zaun and Dioner Navarro. [Around the Majors]
The Hardball Times has a list of several teams that could be interested in Dioner Navarro. [The Hardball Times]
Would the Mets be interested in Dioner Navarro? [Mets Today]
We’re not sure we would call Kelly Shoppach a “huge upgrade,” but ok. [Center of the Sports Universe]
Fangraphs tries to figure out if Jason Bartlett’s 2009 season was a fluke. [Fangraphs]

http://mvn.com/aroundthemajors/2009/12/kelly-shoppach-nice-pick-up-for-tampa-bay-rays.html