Significant Middle East Developments

Egypt. Egyptians went to the polls for a second consecutive day today for the first free presidential elections in Egypt’s history. The turnout was particularly strong on Wednesday, and election monitors hailed the day as mostly free of fraud and violence. Vote tallying will be completed on Saturday, May 26, with the results announced next Tuesday, May 29. After yesteday’s vote, the Muslim Brotherhood claimed their candidate, Mohammed Morsi, was ahead of the twelve others; Amr Moussa’s staff concurred. Estimates put Morsi ahead with 25 percent of the vote with Moussa closely trailing with 23 percent based on exit polls. Today’s turnout was reportedly much lower than Wednesday’s. The elections are expected to go to a run-off on June 16-17 between the two leading vote-getters, with a winner to be announced June 21. Mohamed ElBaradei, Nobel laureate and former presidential candidate, welcomed the elections and remarked, “The fact that we have an election today of which we do not know the outcome is the first ever in the Arab world I can recall.”

Lebanon. Violence erupted in Beirut and other parts of Lebanon this week, the result of Syria-related sectarian clashes. Lebanese Army troops shot dead a Sunni cleric and a member of his convoy when they failed to stop at a checkpoint in Northern Lebanon, triggering demonstrations in Beirut and beyond. Nine people were killed after days of fighting in the northern city of Tripoli, and two more pople were killed in Beirut street battles sparked by the cleric’s killing. Observers called the Beirut clashes the worst in over a decade. The fighting exacerbated deep political and sectarian divisions, as fears mounted that the conflict in neighbouring Syria was spilling across the border. Highlighting the potential for sectarian violence spilling over into Lebanon, a group of Lebanese Shiite pilgrims were kidnapped near Aleppo. The kidnappings spurred the families of the abducted men to block roads and burn tires in Beirut, which only abated when Hassan Nasrallah, head of Hezbollah, called for calm in a television address. UN secretary general Ban Ki-Moon expressed worry on Monday that the violence in Syria would embroil the region in a civil war, saying it was “a pivotal moment in the search for a peaceful settlement to the crisis.” Saudi king Abdullah said on Tuesday that he was “deeply concerned” about the sectarian violence in Lebanon.

Yemen. In the country’s deadliest such attack in years, a suicide bombing in Yemen killed over one hundred people and left hundreds more wounded in Sana’a on Monday. Militants linked to Al Qaeda’s Yemen branch claimed responsibility for the suicide bomber who infiltrated a military parade. One day later, Yemen commemorated its unification in 1990 with a somber military parade for National Day. President Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi observed the events from behind a bullet-proof shield. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia, Gulf states, and Western nations pledged more than $4 billion in aid to Yemen at a conference on Wednesday. Just before the conference, a group of seven aid organizations released a joint statement calling for urgent aid to stave off a humanitarian disaster in the country.

Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments

Iran. Iranian and P5+1 negotiators wrapped up two days of talks in Baghdad today over Iran’s controversial nuclear program. The five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany, reportedly presented a proposal to Iran on Wednesday containing confidence-building measures including a reduction in enriching uranium from 20 percent to 5 percent. Iranian negotiators countered with their own five-point proposal that included demanding significant economic relief from sanctions and broadening the talks to deal with the conflict in Syria. On Wednesday, White House spokesman Jay Carney said that “the fact that they [the talks] are taking place as a continuance of the initial round is a sign of progress.” Iranian diplomats complained that their counterparts failed to provide Iran substantive inducements to compromise on its nuclear program. The parties agreed to hold a third round of talks in Moscow on June 18-19.

Quotes of the Week

• “Today does mark the start of a first round of Egypt’s historic presidential elections. It’s a very important milestone for Egypt’s transition. Egyptians are voting. And we look forward to the outcome.” – State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland said on Wednesday
• “Based on Islamic teachings and the clear fatwa of the supreme leader, the production and use of weapons of mass destruction is haram and have no place in the Islamic Republic of Iran’s defence doctrine.” – Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a statement on Wednesday commemorating Iranian victims of chemical weapons during a 1980-1988 war against Iraq
• “Whoever proposes we take the heart of Jerusalem, the Temple Mount, and take it out of our hands, and that this would bring about peace, I say not only is this a mistake but a fatal mistake.” – Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday evening at a special Knesset session honoring Jerusalem Day
• “The war on terror will continue until it is completely destroyed regardless of the sacrifices.” – Yemen’s president Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi after the attack on Monday
• “Based on Islamic teachings and the clear fatwa of the supreme leader, the production and use of weapons of mass destruction is haram and have no place in the Islamic Republic of Iran’s defence doctrine.” – Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a statement on Wednesday commemorating Iranian victims of chemical weapons during a 1980-1988 war against Iraq

While We Were Looking Elsewhere

Palestinians. Top Hamas and Fatah officials reached agreement late Sunday in Cairo on a new timetable for reconciliation and the implementation of the Doha unity agreement signed last February. The new agreement, signed by senior Fatah official Azzam al-Ahmed and Mussa Abu Marzuk, the Hamas deputy Khaled Meshaal, stipulates that the Palestinian Elections Commission will begin work in Gaza on May 27 while Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, will begin consultations to form an interim government of independents the same day. The interim government will serve for six months and oversee new general elections.

Iraq. Tensions between Iraq’s central government and the semi-autonomous Kurdish region escalated this week when Ashti Hawrami, the Kurdish oil minister, announced a deal on Sunday to export oil directly to Turkey. The deal entails bypassing Baghdad via a pipeline to be built directly from Kurdish fields to Turkey. Baghdad says the Kurdish region has no right to sign deals unilaterally and considers all such deals illegal. A 2011 agreement calls for the Kurds to send oil directly to Baghdad, from where it would be sold, with both sides splitting the revenues 50-50. However, the Kurds halted oil exports to Baghdad in April over a payment dispute.

Syria. A group of Lebanese Shiite pilgrims returning home from a pilgrimage were kidnapped near Aleppo on Tuesday. The wives of the abducted men were released and reported that the kidnappers claimed to be members of the Free Syrian Army. Lebanese foreign minister Adnan Mansour also accused the abductors of being a splinter group of the FSA. The Syrian National Council condemned the kidnappings and called for those abducted to be released; the FSA denied any involvement. Meanwhile, a UN panel said today that the Syrian army is to blame for the majority of human rights abuses since March. The report coincided with the eleventh consecutive day of the government forces’ siege of Rastan.

Kuwait. The Kuwaiti cabinet walked out of a parliamentary session on Tuesday and boycotted a subsequent session on Wednesday over opposition plans to question Finance Minister Mustapha al-Shamali over alleged financial and administrative irregularities. The dispute centers around the opposition’s attempt to merge two separate requests to question Shamali, a plan that the cabinet says is unconstitutional. The boycott forced a cancellation of the session and spurred rumors that the government is preparing to dissolve parliament and hold snap elections, just over three months since the last elections inaugurated the fourth parliament in six years. Information Minister Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah Al-Sabah has denied that the government is planning to dissolve the house.

This Week in History

This week marks the seventy-third anniversary of the the 1939 White Paper, also known as the MacDonald White Paper, named after British colonial secretary Malcolm MacDonald who presided over it. On May 23, 1939, the British House of Commons’ approval the policy paper that abandoned the partitioning of Palestine, as called for in the Peel Commission Report of 1937. Rather than the creation of two independent states, one Jewish, one Arab, the 1939 White Paper called for the creation of an independent Palestine governed by Palestinian Arabs and Jews in proportion to their respective populations. It placed strict limitations on Jewish immigration to Palestine at precisely the same time that other possible havens were being closed for Jewish refugees from Hitler. The White Paper marked a dramatic reversal of Britain’s 1917 Balfour Declaration which called for the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people. Britain’s White Paper remained the basis of British policy in Palestine until the United Nations voted in 1947 to replace the British mandate by partitioning Palestine into two independent states, one Arab the other Jewish.

Statistic of the Week

According to a recent Gallup poll, 82 percent of Egyptians polled in April believe that this week’s presidential elections will be fair and honest. Eighty-six percent of the respondents said that they planned to vote. The survey also found that 73 percent believe that the military will hand over power to a civilian government after the election. While this marks a 9 percent decrease from February, it is still a significant majority.

In an historic development, Egyptians head to the polls on Wednesday and Thursday to vote for a new president. To better understand the importance of this week’s elections, I asked a number of Egyptian and U.S. experts a single question: “Why are Egypt’s May 23 presidential elections significant?” Below, I post their responses:

Abdel Monem Said Aly, columnist, Al Ahram newspaper, Cairo

The Egyptian presidential election is important for three reasons: 1. It will define the “democratic path” of the Egyptian revolution. After fair and free legislative elections, having another one for the president makes democratic practice a tradition. 2. It will configure the political balance in Egypt between democratic and Islamic rule. 3. It will do what Egypt always does: spread the word of democracy, rule of law, influence of the media, etc. for the rest of the region.

Bassem Sabry, Egyptian writer and blogger

The short and straightforward answer is because it is revolutionary, groundbreaking. For the first time in the Arab world’s history, setting Lebanon’s democratic complexities aside, there are real presidential elections in which the soon-to-be-elected leader had not actually been long predetermined, and candidates are fighting with all their being for the votes of their fellow countrymen, empowering the citizen more than ever before. And this future leader, together with a similarly freely and fairly elected parliament, will vehemently influence and impact not only the future of Egypt, but also the ideological and national spirits of much of the Arab world for years to come. If what Egypt ends up becoming is a beacon of inspiration, the rest of the Arab world won’t be long to follow. If Egypt fails, a new reactionary phase might just take hold.

Dalia Ezzat, Egyptian commentator on Middle East affairs

Two years ago we were psychologically preparing ourselves for Gamal Mubarak to become our next president. The upcoming elections which came as a direct result of the revolution have introduced a concept that has been foreign to the Egyptian political scene over the last thirty years: choice. For the first time, and despite the disappointment of many who feel that they have to select the least worst option since none of the current candidates properly address Egypt’s needs through a solid program and vision, Egyptians feel empowered to make a choice that will not only determine Egypt’s future over the next four years but will also influence the trajectory of politics and ideology in the region. And this is why regardless of the outcome, it will be historic.

Daphne McCurdy, senior research associate at the Project on Middle East Democracy

With the constitution still unwritten and the future role of the military left unaddressed, it is unclear how much power the new president of Egypt will wield. Yet for the first time in Egypt’s history, the outcome of a political contest will be decided not by a powerful leader or institution, but by the Egyptian people. And with a number of vastly different presidential candidates to choose from, Egyptians are taking this opportunity to have a fundamental debate about the identity of their country. While it will be years before Egypt becomes a stable democracy, it is these ongoing debates that will help empower citizens and create a more pluralistic society.

Ehab Elzelaky, managing editor, Al Masry Al Youm newspaper

This election marks a crucial moment in Egyptian history. First of all, it will decided on ground whether the revolution succeeded or lost, as most of the Egyptian people (especially the youth) see that we did not make any real progress after Feb. 11, 2011. If the election came by a pro-revolution president then we will move forward in building our new country based on freedom, justice, and social improvement. If nothing else, most of us think that this will start another round of revolt. Second, this is the first time in history that marks a real election between candidates we can choose from  by free will (most probably) our president. Third, we will have for the first time a president we can remove after only four years if he fails to give people what he promised, and that way this is a mark of pharaoh death in Egyptian culture after seven thousand years.  Finally, this is the first election which results we do not know in advance.

Elliott Abrams, senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies, Council on Foreign Relations

These elections will demonstrate the relative strength of the more secular elements of Egyptian society versus the Islamists, and of the Brotherhood within the Islamist sector. Though they take only one snapshot in time, the elections will give a good sense of Egypt’s political trajectory.

Dr. Hazem Malky, editor of Ikhwanweb, the Muslim Brotherhood’s official English website

Elections will measure the success of the Egyptian revolution in creating genuine democracy and freedom. It will determine the direction and fate of Egypt for decades, which can influence the political atmosphere across the Arab and Muslim world. The new president will decide on a host of critical political and economic issues that can change the world order, and affect the balance of power in the Middle East. Moreover, it’s the first election in history where the Muslim Brotherhood is competing openly for the presidency. Therefore, these elections will be a testimony to the popularity and strength of political Islam, and a measurement of the level of public confidence in its rhetoric. If it succeeds, the Muslim Brotherhood will represent a unique model of democratic Islamists, where they can reconcile the responsibilities of democratic governing with Islamist ideology.

Islam I. Hussein, senior faculty fellow, National Research Council

Although many Egyptian liberals, myself included, are disappointed by the current set of presidential candidates, the election’s greatest significance lies not in the candidates themselves, but rather in society’s newly-discovered mode of democratic participation. For the first time in the history of our republic, citizens may not only freely discuss, debate, and criticize policy positions of candidates, and observe the candidates debating each other, but they will also witness the candidates working hard to attract citizens’ votes. For once, it feels like the voter is the master whose approval is sought by candidates, of all stripes, for government office. The election’s impact will truly be profound if the spirit of rejecting presidential and, more broadly, state paternalism lives on and becomes an integral part of Egyptian culture. Only then would this coming election, together with Egypt’s 2011 uprising, embody true meaning when taught in the history books of the future.

Michele Dunne, director, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council

I have been in Cairo speaking with people over the past week, and many Egyptians see the presidential election (perhaps unrealistically) as effectively ending the transitional process and allowing the country to get back to business. Most expect a high voter turnout and a cleanly run process, and feel there are real and important differences among the various candidates. For many, the central question is whether the next president will increase or decrease the Islamist color of the post-revolutionary order. For more cynical observers, however, the election matters little because the Mubarak-era deep state dominated by military and intelligence remains intact and will continue to rule no matter who is elected.

Nervana Mahmoud, British-Egyptian blogger and Middle East observer 

For centuries, Egyptians never had the opportunity to choose their leader or their identity, a complex multilayered identity that was–in a way–imposed on them. Arabs spread Islam and changed pharaonic traditions, Saladin revived Sunni Islam ending Shiite rule, and later Nasser brought nationalism under military rule. Now, and for the first time, Egyptians have a chance to get rid of authoritarianism and articulate their own identity. Standing at a crossroads, with the shadow of the past, and the fear of the unknown daunting them, Egyptians have to answers two main questions: What type of leader does Egypt want? And how far can religion rule Egyptians’ lives? The May 23 election will test their character and offer them a unique opportunity to take ownership of their future. For once, it is their choice; they will call the shots and will have to take responsibility for their decision.

Robert Satloff, executive director, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Egypt’s presidential vote matters because it provides an important signal as to whether there is hope that post-revolutionary Egypt can become a competitive democracy, in which alternative visions of the country’s future jostle for power, or whether it will only be a competitive theocracy, with different streams of Islamists fighting to control the state. To be sure, one has to sigh at the standard-bearers of the non-Islamist alternative, Amr Moussa and Ahmed Shafiq, neither of whom embodies the lofty ideals that President Obama praised at the height of the Tahrir Square moment in February 2011, but, as Rumsfeld might have said, Egyptians will choose from the candidates they have, not the ones we would want. Arabs, Israelis, Turks, Europeans, and Americans–to name a few-are all watching.

Dr. Tamer Fouad, Egyptian physician and blogger commenting on political and current affairs in Egypt on his blog democrati.net

It’s a historical moment that comes at the heart of a complex power struggle. At the center of power is the ruling junta which has pledged to step down by July 1. Nevertheless, since taking control, the military has been reluctant to cede any power. What role the army will play after the transition is one of the biggest issues facing Egypt. On the other hand, the Islamists who have a comfortable majority in parliament have found themselves with very little political clout. As a result, they’ve been anxiously waiting for the military to retreat. Whether the elections play out in their favor could determine the role of religion in the country’s new constitution. Meanwhile, the youth who brought about the revolution have found themselves politically alienated. Yet, they regard the upcoming elections as a significant step on the long road toward civilian rule.

Tarek Amr, Egyptian blogger and volunteer writer at Global Voices Online

For me, the presidential elections’ significance, more than choosing a president–whose job description remains unclear since the constitution is yet to be written, add to that that I am not really excited about any of the candidates–is that they will set a milestone for the country to move forward and hopefully decrease the military junta’s excuses to stay in power by one.

This week’s Time magazine cover story features Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and attempts to divine the Israeli leader’s true ambitions. Time asks: Now that he has formed Israel’s strongest coalition in the country’s history, what does he plan to do with it? Analyzing Netanyahu’s “true intentions” has become a virtual cottage industry, both in Israel and abroad. Over the years, many commentators have scoured the Israeli leader’s personal history, speculating on the respective influences of his father, his wife, his fallen brother, and his childhood in the United States.

This exercise at psycho-historical analysis, while fascinating, is largely pointless. I have had the opportunity to spend a considerable amount of time with the Israeli leader. But I would not profess to have gleaned special insight into what path his country will take under his leadership as a result. But I would say the same thing applies after having been exposed to other statesmen in my experience in public service.

Indeed, one conclusion I have drawn observing world leaders is that most of them avoid tipping their hands prematurely or making decisions before they have to. They often have a strong sense of the direction they would like to point their ship of state. But they also know that they cannot predict, much less control, developments as they unfold. Therefore, given the stakes and consequences of the choices they must make, they will usually defer the hardest decisions until they absolutely must make the call.

Journalists may indeed write the first draft of history. But they will not likely learn what historic decisions a given leader will take by interviewing them. The coherence and trajectory of where leaders are going are often only clear in retrospect, not at the time. Having been trained as an historian, I have spent years of my life in historical archives. Pouring through the private papers, correspondence, and minutes recording historic figures’ decision-making, it is impossible not to be struck by the complexity and even contingency of many momentous decisions. While many leaders have a strong sense of history, and operate in the knowledge that their actions will be the subject for future historians, most if not all entertain the same doubts, uncertainties, and questions the rest of us do. They are, after all, human.

Momentous decisions can be literally a matter of life and death for thousands of people. It should not be surprising, therefore, that most leaders’ bottom lines on such issues can only truly be discerned at the decisive moment. They will only make the hardest choices when they absolutely have to, or when faced with an unpalatable situation in which the price of inaction forces them to act. The decisions they take are usually based on conviction, incomplete and imperfect information, and ultimately instinct.

We can’t know what Bibi Netanyahu will do either with regards to Iran or the Palestinians. Whether or not Israel strikes Iran will ultimately depend on a host of elements, some international, some domestic, some personal. The actions of Iranians, Europeans, Americans, and other Israelis will all affect the calculus. But these variables are constantly changing, and it is impossible to know where they will be at some decisive moment that may well not be that of the Israeli leader’s choosing.

Similarly, when it comes to what Netanyahu may do in negotiations with the Palestinians, the Israeli leader’s current intentions are much less important than the realities he will encounter down the line. In his previous stint at Israel’s helm, Netanyahu surprised many by becoming the first Likud leader to deploy Israeli deploy troops out of the historic land of Israel by signing the Hebron Accords with Yassir Arafat in 1997. This suggests that those who believe Netanyahu’s path is predetermined are mistaken.

Moreover, realities change over the course of leaders’ tenures. Prime Minister Sharon took office in 2001 seeking to halt the negotiations with Yassir Arafat that had resulted in a second Intifada. Sharon later took the historic decision to withdraw Israeli settlers and soldiers from Gaza in 2005 after he saw that other diplomatic efforts, such as the Geneva initiative, were starting to gain traction internationally. Sharon was not sure that the United States would not resume a full court diplomatic press, even under George Bush. Seeking to initiate rather than react, he put forward and executed his Gaza plan.

Sharon’s successor, Ehud Olmert, came to power seeking to continue the unilateral disengagement effort but apply it to the West Bank. Instead, Olmert wound up negotiating intensively with the Palestinians within an American-sponsored framework launched in 2007 at Annapolis.

How Netanyahu proceeds with the Palestinians ultimately depends on the realities he will confront in the future and the choices he will be asked to make. Many actors and variables will affect those choices. Intentions are important. But ultimately, timing is everything.

Significant Middle East Developments

Syria. Earlier today, Burhan Ghalioun offered to resign as head of the Syrian National Council, the country’s primary opposition group. In making the announcement, Ghalioun called on the Syrian opposition “to break the cycle of conflicts and preserve unity.” Ghalioun’s resignation, just two days after he was reelected to head the SNC, was nonetheless reportedly due to the mounting criticism of Ghalioun’s leadership within the opposition. Some constituents threatened to leave if their concerns were not properly addressed. Meanwhile, violence within Syria continued with reports that fifteen people were killed by army shelling today in Rastan, and dozens more reportedly killed earlier this week. Some twenty-three Syrian soldiers were killed by rebels in Rastan on Monday. Syria’s fighting also spilled over into Lebanon this week with Tripoli in the north the scene of days of bloody clashes between Bashar al-Assad supporters and backers of Syria’s uprising, leaving at least six dead and some one hundred wounded. Despite the violence, President Assad announced in a rare interview on Tuesday with Russian television that Syria faced no real domestic opposition. He attributed recent violence to foreign-backed terrorists saying, “We have an acute problem with terrorism.”

Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments

Israel. Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak met with U.S. defense secretary Leon Panetta in Washington today and reportedly discussed Iranian developments. The two officials discussed the United States providing $680 million in additional funding over three years for Israel’s Iron Dome missile system. The money would be enough for Israel to buy three or four more batteries and interceptors for the short-range rocket defense program. Barak thanked the United States at the meeting for its “complete commitment to Israel’s security” and said that additional missile defense would provide Israel’s leaders the political and diplomatic leverage to “prevent a significant escalation.”

Yemen. President Obama signed an executive order on Wednesday providing the Treasury Department the authority to freeze the U.S.-based assets of anyone who undermines Yemen’s stability. Obama administration officials explained that the order will help them to sideline and remove relatives and supporters of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh from positions of power. It is applicable to anyone who has “engaged in acts that directly or indirectly threaten the peace, security or stability of Yemen” and reflects concerns that political instability could be taken advantage of by members of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

Quotes of the Week

• “Egypt will offer an example to the world of free and fair presidential elections that (reflect) the will of the people.” – Egyptian field marshal Hussein Tantawi on Wednesday
• “The great dream of the peoples of the region is to see the day when borders disappear with a union that creates one Gulf.” – Bahraini prime minister Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa on Sunday prior to a meeting of Gulf Cooperation Council leaders
• “If the world community set the threshold that even if fully accepted, let alone only partially accepted by the Iranians, to keep moving toward nuclear military program, that’s ridiculous, a delusion.” – Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak in a CNN interview on Wednesday
• “We have seen nothing in the past months except political incompetence in the SNC and a total lack of consensus between its vision and that of the revolutionaries.” - Syria’s Local Coordination Committees in a statement today

While We Were Looking Elsewhere

Iran. Iranian officials met with IAEA representatives in Vienna on Monday for the first time in three months. Saeed Jalili, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, called on the West to end its “pressure strategy” and said the Iranian people await actions to secure their trust. The Vienna talks were in preparation for the resumption of the upcoming P5+1 negotiations next Tuesday (May 23) in Baghdad. Meanwhile, a panel of UN experts submitted a report on Wednesday to the UN Security Council’s Iran sanctions committee detailing illegal Iranian arms shipments, including two seized shipments to Syria in the past year. The report also said that sanctions on Iran are slowing its procurement of essential items for its nuclear program.

GCC. The leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states met on Monday to discuss a Saudi proposal to turn the bloc into a union, a process that would likely begin with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. The group did not reach agreement to integrate the six GCC states, with talks on that proposal postponed until the next GCC meeting in December. However, the discussion stirred a public row between Bahrain and Iran as Iranian parliamentarians condemned the potential Saudi-Bahraini union. Officials in Tehran urged Iranians to protest on Friday against “the American plan to annex Bahrain to Saudi Arabia and express their anger against the lackey regimes of Al-Khalifa and Al-Saud.” Bahrain’s Foreign Ministry sent Iran a letter of protest in response.

West Bank. Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas swore in a new cabinet on Wednesday consisting of eleven new officials. The appointment came more than a year after the last cabinet resigned in February 2011. Salam Fayyad retained his role as prime minister, but relinquished his second role as financial minister to Nabil Kassis, a former Bir Zeit University president and political independent. Today, Abbas issued a decree authorizing the new government to hold municipal elections in stages in the West Bank. The last round of local elections was held in 2005. Both moves drew harsh criticism from Hamas, with spokesperson Fawzi Barhum saying that the steps “strengthen the division” and called on Abbas to implement the Doha agreement between Fatah and Hamas calling for a new interim unity government. Abbas replied, “If we have an agreement with Hamas tomorrow or afterwards, this government will not have any role… But I cannot wait forever.”

Egypt. The leader of Egypt’s ruling military council, Field Marshal Tantawi, vowed on Wednesday to secure a fair vote in Egypt’s upcoming presidential elections which begin on May 23. Tantawi said that the military would retain its “duty” to safeguard Egypt from internal disturbances as well as external threats.

This Week in History

This week marks the eighty-ninth anniversary of Britain’s formal recognition of the Emirate of Transjordan as a state under the leadership of Emir Abdullah. The Emirate of Transjordan was established as a British protectorate in April 1921 following the historic Cairo Conference. Transjordan and Palestine were placed under one mandate, although Britain administered the land west of the Jordan River as Palestine and the land east of the river as Transjordan. In May of 1923, Transjordan was formally recognized as an independent mandate under Emir Abdullah. Under this arrangement, the British loosened some of its mandatory control, limiting its role to financial, military, and foreign policy matters. The first Anglo-Transjordan treaty was completed in 1928, which granted Transjordan nominal independence, though Britain maintained a military presence and control of foreign affairs. Transjordan finally became an independent kingdom in 1946, when it was officially established as the Hashemite Kingdom of Transjordan.

Statistic of the Week

According to a Rasmussen Reports survey, nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of U.S. voters polled believe there is a conflict today between Western civilization and Islamic nations. The survey also found that only 27 percent of the respondents believe that it is at least somewhat likely that countries such as Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia will become free and democratic over the next few years. Of that group, only 3 percent think it is very likely to occur. Sixty-two percent think such a democratic transformation is not likely.

Israel’s political landscape was just redrawn last week with the surprise agreement between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Kadima party head Shaul Mofaz to form a new government rather than hold national elections in September. I discussed the implications of this development with former New York Times diplomatic correspondent Bernard Gwertzman in an interview featured on CFR.org and published below.

Domestic Focus for Israel’s Coalition

May 14, 2012

Interviewee: Robert M. Danin, Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, CFR
Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor, CFR.org

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Shaul Mofaz, the head of the Kadima Party, announced on May 8 a national unity government that will be the largest coalition in Israel’s history and will remain in power until elections in 2013. The sudden agreement by Israel’s two leading parties, which forestalled new parliamentary elections that had been scheduled for September, was made primarily for domestic reasons, not to prepare for war against Iran, says CFR Middle East expert Robert M. Danin. Danin says Israelis’ priorities are “economic and social.” While Iran is something to which the Israeli security establishment led by Netanyahu pays close attention, says Danin, “there is not a widespread clamoring for a strike against Iran at a popular level within Israel.” The emphasis on domestic issues also eclipses the peace process with the Palestinians, says Danin, noting that “there is a widespread and shared sense that the system of governance needs to change. Only then do they talk about promoting a peace process.”

What’s the most important aspect of this unprecedented arrangement between Netanyahu and Mofaz?

The most significant aspect is that you now will have the largest coalition government in Israel’s history. Some 94 members of the Knesset’s 120 members will be inside the government. This makes it a very strong government, and it means that no one party can bring down the government. This gives Prime Minister Netanyahu tremendous stability and tremendous room to maneuver.

He and Mofaz had a press conference in which he outlined four areas they wanted to work on. Could you outline these?

The four elements were: 1) promoting legislation to bring the ultra-Orthodox into national service within two months; 2) changing the system of government in Israel by the end of the year; 3) passing a budget; and 4) promoting what they called a “reasonable peace process.”

What’s significant and interesting about this–and I have just returned from Israel–is that if you read outside commentary you would think that Israel is at the center of a regional tsunami because of the Arab uprisings, the Syrian bloodshed, and instability all around. But the priorities in Israeli politics right now are domestic, economic, and social, and that’s reflected in those four agenda items. Three out of the four items are purely domestic issues having to do with governance and the way Israel is run, either in terms of bringing one segment of society into national service or passing a budget or actually reforming the system of governance, which is a recognition that there is a widespread and shared sense that the system of governance needs to change. Only then do they talk about promoting a peace process.

I’m always confused about the fact that there are so many parties in the Israeli government. Is this an effort to narrow the number of parties?

Not necessarily, but we have yet to learn exactly what they have in mind. Overall, what you’ve had in Israel is a system in which, because of the precariousness of the parliamentary system, it’s very difficult for the prime minister and his ruling party to carry out its agenda. It needs a coalition to bring that about, and what you’ve had are coalitions of not necessarily like-minded parties, but rather a coalition in which deals are made, in which smaller interests are addressed. There’s a large-scale consensus amongst “middle Israel,” the vast majority of the Israeli populace that lives in the coastal plain of Israel, that special interests get a disproportionate amount of attention and resources thrown at them in order to maintain political coalitions. That’s what they want to try to change.

The ultra-Orthodox have been exempt from national service. Will it be difficult to change this, or is bringing them into the national service something the new coalition can achieve?

There is the potential for significant change. Israel has changed its system several times. Israel originally had the electoral system it has today, but from 1996 to 2001, they changed it. They enacted a system in which the prime minister was elected separately from the party list. This proved to be worse than the previous system, and so they went back to the status quo ante in 2001. Still, the fact that they were able to change the system before shows it can be done.

Now there’s a yearning for even more dramatic change. The fact that Mofaz and Netanyahu basically have an agreement that this government will last until the end of its tenure, which is late next year, means that there’s a significant amount of time. One of the significant elements of Israeli politics is that for the last several years, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s been looking over his shoulder at the Yisrael Beiteinu party, headed by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, which has had fifteen seats in the Knesset. This agreement frees up Netanyahu from being dependent on any single party anymore for his government. It means that he has a lot of space and power to really bring about dramatic change, and he’s identified domestic change as the real national agenda.

Mofaz in the past has been more publicly eager for an agreed solution with thePalestinians than Netanyahu has seemed to be. Will this open the way for substantive new negotiations with the Palestinian Authority?

There are two important elements here. First, the center of gravity within the coalition now has shifted more towards Israel’s center. Bringing in a centrist party of twenty-nine really tilts the scales towards the center, and the fact that Kadima does want an active peace process is going to enable Prime Minister Netanyahu to pursue a more activist approach. He won’t be hamstrung by the far right. The second element is that Mofaz has reportedly been anointed to explore possibilities with the Palestinians. So that argues for renewed efforts with the Palestinians.

That would be welcomed in the United States, where the administration has seemed to shelve its prior interest in Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. Another significant international issue that has been the topic of speculation is whether this accord will reduce the likelihood of Israel pursuing military action against the Iranian nuclear establishment on its own.

I don’t think this accord was done necessarily to set the stage for action against Iran. That’s the way many observers are reading it. I see the accord more in terms of domestic politics, but it does give the prime minister much greater freedom of maneuver on foreign policy, and traditionally Israel has formed strong national unity governments on the eve of wars. This is a peacetime, broad-based national unity government, so Israel is better placed politically to take military action if it wants to, but I don’t think that this is necessarily an indicator. But it means that Prime Minister Netanyahu has a broad-based support for not taking military action if that’s what this government decides to do.

So you don’t see Iran as the basis for this accord?

It’s very hard to extrapolate meaning vis-à-vis Iran from this agreement. The arrangement was driven by domestic considerations. A majority of Israelis polled as Israel was preparing for elections did not want elections right now. So the move itself is actually popular. Israelis did not necessarily want to go to the polls right now.

There had been an intense debate in Israel on why he [Netanyahu] was going for elections right now. One school had it that he wanted to have elections prior to the American elections, because either electorally he’d do better now or he’d be able to renew his mandate and still have time to take action on Iran with a new mandate. But the more compelling explanation has to do with Kadima [an offshoot of the Likud party and founded by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in 2005 to support his unilateral withdrawal from Gaza]. The Kadima leader, former Prime Minister Tzipi Livni, had just been replaced by Mofaz.

Kadima was polling extremely badly. It looked as though, if elections were held in September, Kadima would be reduced significantly in size in the Knesset. Netanyahu saw an opportunity to achieve what he had long wanted, which was to bring Kadima back into his government. Originally, Netanyahu wanted to do it through elections, by destroying them electorally, but this agreement does the same thing, without elections. It re-empowers and re-strengthens Likud, and I wouldn’t be surprised if in 2013, when Israel does go to elections, Kadima may no longer exist. Kadima may actually be part of Likud again, which is one of the reasons many people are upset by this.

Mofaz is an Iranian Jew himself. How eager is he to attack Iran?

There is not a widespread clamoring for a strike against Iran at a popular level within Israel. What was so striking in visiting Israel is there was just no sense that you’re visiting a country that is about to go to war, which is not to say that’s not the case. But the point is that Iran does not dominate popular sentiment. There’s not a sense of either “We’re about to go to war ” and that either we should or we shouldn’t. It just isn’t a top-level issue on the national agenda. But as reflected in those four pillars of the coalition agreement, it is not at the top of national priorities at a popular level. To be sure, this is something that’s consuming the prime minister and his national security team, and they feel a tremendous weight of responsibility for dealing with this. So I don’t want to diminish it either. But at a popular level, Israel does not feel like a country that’s about to go to war, nor are Israelis consumed with this issue of Iran either way.

Significant Middle East Developments

Israel. In a move that caught virtually all Israelis by surprise, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced early Tuesday morning that he was forming a new unity government with the Kadima party and its new leader Shaul Mofaz (my Tuesday morning analysis available here). Israelis had been bracing for new national elections. As Netanyahu and Mofaz met secretly to hammer out the deal on Monday night, Knesset members were working to dissolve the government in preparation for a likely September 4 vote. Mofaz’s Kadima brings an additional twenty-eight Knesset seats to the Likud-led coalition. The new government will be comprised of ninety-four of the available one hundred and twenty Knesset seats, making it the largest ruling coalition in Israel’s history. Netanyahu will now serve out the remainder of his term and elections will likely be held in October 2013. At a joint press conference with Mofaz on Tuesday, Netanyahu said, “we’re pulling together for four main issues: to pass a fair and equal replacement of the Tal Law; to pass a responsible budget; to change the system of governance; and, lastly, to try and promote a responsible peace process.” Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas’ spokesman, Nabil Abu Rudeineh, responded on Tuesday saying “This is the right time for the Israeli government to reach peace with the Palestinian people by immediately accepting the requirements of the peace process.”

Syria. UN special envoy Kofi Annan briefed the UN Security Council on Tuesday, expressing concern over the continuing Syrian violence and warning that the international community is in a “race against time” to prevent Syria from sliding into a full civil war. A day later a bomb hit a military convoy transporting the chief of the UN observer mission Major General Robert Mood, wounding six Syrian soldiers. This morning brought the single deadliest assault of Syria’s unrest when two car bombs exploded outside an intelligence compound in Damascus killing at least fifty-five people and injuring another three hundred and seventy-two. Meanwhile, Syrians voted in parliamentary elections Monday. The Assad regime promoted the vote as an opening of the political system, but the election was boycotted by Syria’s opposition. The Syrian National Council slammed the regime for holding the vote, saying “Whoever drowns Syria in blood, displaces two million Syrians and shoots at the Syrian people, does not have the legitimacy to draw up a constitution or an electoral law, or to run elections.”

Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments

Yemen. U.S. intelligence officials announced on Tuesday that a Saudi double agent had infiltrated Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and foiled a plot to smuggle a bomb aboard a U.S.-bound aircraft. The agent had provided critical information that allowed the CIA on Sunday to target a drone strike and kill Fahd Mohammed Ahmed al-Quso, the new operations leader of Al Qaeda and a suspect in the bombing of the U.S.S. Cole. Also on Tuesday, the Pentagon announced that the U.S. has recently resumed on-the-ground military training to aid Yemen’s fight against Al Qaeda. Training activities had been suspended during the recent political upheaval.

Syria. Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees and Migration, Anne C. Richard, told reporters in Amman today that the U.S. has allocated an extra seven million dollars to aid Syrian refugees, bringing the total to nearly forty million. The assistance will be funneled through international and local agencies inside Syria and in surrounding countries, including Jordan. Richard also said that the U.S. has no plan to accelerate the movement of Syrian people to the U.S. so long as they are safe, and expressed hopes that they will be able to return to their homes soon.

Quotes of the Week

• “We support the Annan plan but if someone were to ask me what my hopes are, I would say I have lost hope…What can 50 observers do? They can’t visit even a small part of a region of the country.” – Turkish prime minister Erdogan on Tuesday
• “Not one of the leaders of the occupation can be classified as worse than the other. Attempts to categorize them as doves and hawks is incorrect, they are all fond of shedding Palestinian blood.” – Mahmoud Zahar, a leader of Hamas, in an interview with the Ma’an news service on Wednesday
• “A basic right of our people is being violated. The right of being able to choose our leadership.” – Palestinian prime minister Salam Fayyad in an interview on Tuesday

While We Were Looking Elsewhere

Algeria. Algerians went to the polls this morning for parliamentary elections for the first time since unrest hit the region last year. The final results are due tomorrow, with turnout estimates due after polling stations close tonight. Many Algerians doubt the integrity of the process and are planning to skip the vote, despite assurances from President Abdelaziz Bouteflika that the election will be the most open in the country’s history, with five hundred international observers scattered across more than forty-eight thousand polling stations.

Iraq. Interpol announced on Tuesday that it had issued an international Red Notice for the arrest of Iraq’s Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi “on suspicion of guiding and financing terrorist attacks.” In response, Turkish deputy prime minister Bekir Bozdag said on Wednesday that Turkey would not extradite the Iraqi vice president who fled Baghdad in December and has been in Istanbul since April 9. Hashemi’s trial in Iraq was postponed again today for the second time until May 15.

Bahrain. Bahraini authorities reportedly suspended talks this week with the country’s opposition and have announced stiffer measures against illegal protests. Abduljalil Khalil, a senior member of the opposition party Wefaq, said that all talks have ceased. Bahraini government spokesman Sheikh Abdulaziz bin Mubarak Al Khalifa said that the opposition must first declare that it is ready for talks without preconditions. Khalifa also said that “because of the escalation in violence, we are looking into the perpetrators and people who use print, broadcast and social media to encourage illegal protest and violence around the country…If applying the law means tougher action, then so be it.”  Secretary of State Clinton hosted Bahraini crown prince Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa in Washington on Wednesday. She noted the steps taken to implement the recommendations of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry while encouraging the Bahraini government to champion a clear process that will lead to reform.

Libya. The Tripoli headquarters of the country’s interim government came under attack on Tuesday by armed men claiming to be former rebels angry over unpaid stipends. One guard was killed and four others wounded before security forces were able to repel the attackers. Libyan prime minister Abdurrahim al-Kib, speaking about the attack in a televised speech, vowed that the government would not negotiate under “threat of arms.”

This Week in History

This week marks the ninety-sixth anniversary of the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement, the secret understanding between Great Britain and France, with the assent of imperial Russia, to partition the territory of the former Ottoman Empire. The agreement allotted Lebanon and parts of Syria to France, southern Mesopotamia and the Mediterranean ports of Haifa and Acre to Great Britain, and the region in-between to become a unitary Arab state or confederation of Arab states under French and British influence. Arab rulers did not learn of the agreement until its text was published by the Soviet Union in 1917, creating deep resentment that lingers to this day, despite the official abrogation of the Sykes-Picot Agreement at the Conference of San Remo in 1920.

Statistic of the Week

According to an Arab Technical News Gateway report, the number of Arab users of social networking sites has increased to record rates in 2012. Arab Facebook users constitute 12 percent of the world’s total users, an 8 percent increase from two years ago. More than 1.3 million Arabs currently use Twitter. Saudi Arabia has the largest share of Twitter users with 393,000 employing the service. Eighty-eight percent of the Arab world’s tweets produced in March came from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, and Bahrain.

I just returned from Israel and the West Bank where I accompanied the Quartet Representative, former Prime Minister Tony Blair, for meetings with Israeli and Palestinian leaders. Israelis and Palestinians already were already absorbed by the impending election campaign, having rapidly internalized an apparent decision by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to dissolve his government and hold elections on September 4.

Several hours ago, early Tuesday morning Israel time, Netanyahu surprised everyone in Israel by reaching agreement to form a national unity government with the new leader of Kadima, Shaul Mofaz. Instead of holding elections on September 4, the prime minister instead reportedly plans to serve out the remainder of his term, which is set to expire late in 2013.  Under the agreement, the centrist Kadima party will join Netanyahu’s government with Mofaz, who just took over as party head two weeks ago, likely to become deputy prime minister and minister without portfolio.

Israelis will awake in a few hours to the surprise news. While many Israeli politicians will denounce Netanyahu’s decision to abort the elections, in reality, many of them will be relieved. Netanyahu was taking Israel to the polls right now precisely because his political standing is extremely strong right now. For Mofaz’s Kadima, the agreement provides relief, given that polls suggested that it would lose two-thirds of its current 28 Knesset seats. It could mean the end of the party, however, if Netanyahu succeeds in reintegrating some of the former Likud members who had joined Kadima when Prime Minister Sharon formed the party in 2005.

It is within the hard right in Israel that some of the greatest dissatisfaction could emerge. Kadima and Likud combined now hold almost a simple majority in the Knesset. Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu just lost its three-year-old veto over any Netanyahu initiatives. Some within the prime minister’s own Likud will be also displeased, particularly if they are forced to give up cabinet seats or other prized positions to make room for their new Kadima partners. Those to the right of Netanyahu will also now worry that the prime minister may tack to the center on issues related to the Palestinians.

For Defense Minister Barak, the agreement provides a new lifeline, since it was not clear that his new breakaway faction from Labor would pick up a single seat in the next election. Labor, now headed by Shelly Yacimovich, had picked up a number of seats in the polls, but was nowhere close to being able to pose a serious challenge to Netanyahu. With Kadima now in the government, Labor will return to the role it has mainly played since 1977, that of being the leader of the opposition. This could help awaken the somnambulant left in Israel.

As Israel enters its summer, Netanyahu’s greatest challenge could emerge from elements within the country not represented in the Knesset: the social protest movement. Last summer, Israel witnessed unprecedented social protests that brought hundreds of thousands of Israelis to the streets for a number of months. These demonstrators rallied against skyrocketing housing and living costs, government corruption, and increased income disparities. In recent days, the grass-roots leadership of the social movement had begun to be courted by some of Israel’s political parties in the hope that these largely unaffiliated demonstrators could be mobilized behind the traditional parties. With elections no longer impending, the social activists may see the only alternative open to them this summer as being a return to the streets. Such a development will be no boon to Netanyahu’s free-market oriented Likud could leave the prime minister wishing he had proceeded with his plan to hold early elections at a time when a relatively easy victory appeared almost assured.

Significant Middle East Developments

Syria. The United Nations announced today that the three-week old truce in Syria “is not holding.” Major General Robert Mood, chief of the UN Supervision Mission to Syria, told Britain’s Sky News that “This is not easy and we are seeing–by the action, by explosions, by firing–that the cease-fire is really a shaky one.” He went on to say that “what we are also seeing on the ground is that where we have observers present, they have a calming effect and we’re also seeing that those operating on the ground, they take advice from our observers.” His remarks follow UN under secretary for peacekeeping operations Herve Ladsous’s statement on Tuesday that Syrian forces have kept heavy weapons in cities and that both the Syrian military and rebel forces have violated the truce. He also said the UN had recruited only about half the number of the three hundred monitors it had hoped for in Syria but that commitments were still coming in. Meanwhile, a protest on a university campus turned deadly when Syrian security forces stormed a dormitory at Aleppo University last night. Syrian activists report that security forces fired tear gas and live ammunition to disperse students gathered in protest; at least four have been killed and more than fifty students were arrested. Aleppo province saw further violence yesterday when rebel forces ambushed Syrian soldiers in the village of Al-Rai, killing fifteen troops. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch released a report on Wednesday which accuses the Syrian military of committing war crimes in Syria’s northern Idlib province just before a ceasefire went into effect on April 12.

Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu has come under unusual criticism of his handling of Iran by a number of former intelligence and security officials. Yuval Diskin, who recently retired as head of the Israeli Shin Bet security service, said on Friday that he had “no trust in the current Israeli leadership” and condemned the “messianic leadership” of Netanyahu and his defense minister Ehud Barak, saying they were “presenting the public with a mirage” concerning the policy options on Iran’s nuclearization. Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan echoed these statements at a conference in New York on Sunday saying that Diskin had “spoke his truth” when he attacked Netanyahu’s leadership. Dagan has also declared that “an aerial attack against Iran’s nuclear reactor would be foolish.” Gabi Ashkenazi, a former head of the Israeli Defense Forces, called Dagan and Diskin his partners in “stopping Bibi and Barak” from setting out on “any dangerous adventure.” Current IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz told Haaretz last week “Clearly, the more the Iranians progress the worse the situation is. This is a critical year, but not necessarily ‘go, no-go,’” a statement that notably contrasts with Netanyahu’s stated timeline. The wave of criticism comes at a crucial time as Israel’s Knesset appears poised to call for new elections. A Likud official said this week that Netanyahu will announce on Sunday that national elections will be moved up to September 4. Defense Minister Ehud Barak announced yesterday that the prospect of imminent elections would not affect Israel’s strategy for dealing with Iran’s nuclear program. All this falls against the backdrop of personal grief for the prime minister; Netanyahu’s father, the renowned historian Benzion Netanyahu, passed away on Monday at the age of 102.

Egypt. Egypt’s campaign for the presidential election officially began on Monday with the news that the Salafi party al-Nour had endorsed Abdul Muniem Abul Fotouh. The former Muslim Brother Fotouh was also endorsed by Wael Ghonim, the young Google executive who became famous during the uprising last year. Al-Nour’s announcement is an apparent setback to Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi’s campaign. Meanwhile protesters camped out in Abbasseya Square were attacked Saturday night by an unknown group who threw rocks and Molotov cocktails into the crowd, killing one and injuring one hundred and nineteen. Violence has flared every night since then with twenty people killed in clashes Tuesday night and at least another eleven Wednesday night. Both Abdul Muniem Abul Fotouh and Mohammed Mursi called off campaign events on Wednesday in protest of the authorities’ handling of the events. Meanwhile the Freedom and Justice party called for a cabinet reshuffle within forty-eight hours on Sunday and then suspended all sessions of parliament for a week. SCAF members responded on Monday by denying any intention of a cabinet reshuffle, but did announce on Wednesday that the military may hand over power on May 24 if the president wins in the first round.

Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments

The UAE. U.S. officials announced on Monday that the United States had deployed a number of highly advanced F-22 fighter jets to the Al-Dhafra air base in the United Arab Emirates amid deepening tensions between the UAE and Iran. Air force major Mary Danner-Jones said in a statement: “The United States Air Force has deployed F-22s to Southwest Asia. Such deployments strengthen military-to-military relationships, promote sovereign and regional security, improve combined tactical air operations, and enhance interoperability of forces, equipment and procedures.” Iran criticized the move saying that it will “endanger the region’s security.” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast continued saying: “We do not in any way approve the presence of foreign forces in the region. We advise the regional countries against providing a basis for their presence.”

Syria and Iran. The U.S. Treasury Department announced today that Daniel Glaser, the assistant secretary for terrorist financing, will visit Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates during a ten-day visit to discuss the threat of terrorist financing and efforts to implement sanctions against Iran and Syria. A Treasury Department statement announced that Glaser will “highlight the need for governments and financial sectors to remain vigilant against attempts by the Syrian and Iranian regimes to evade multilateral sanctions.”

Quotes of the Week

• “We stress that Saudi Arabia and the rest of the council countries are standing in a unified line with Bahrain and the UAE to protect sovereignty and stability, considering their security a part of the council’s security as a whole.” – Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Nayef in a speech at a meeting of GCC interior ministers in Riyadh on Wednesday
• “The Persian Gulf region is the home of all of us, and the nations on its southern and northern shores are permanent inhabitants and inevitable neighbors, and should accept that facts of geography and proximity are unchangeable and that peaceful and brotherly coexistence is an undeniable necessity.” – Iranian foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi wrote in a message to the National Persian Gulf day celebration in Bushehr on Sunday
• “The cease-fire, announced on the basis of Kofi Annan’s plan and supported by the UN Security Council, is not being stable yet, mostly because the armed opposition groups are trying to stage provocations, explosions, terror attacks and shootings,” – Russian foreign minister Lavrov told the Rossiya-24 TV channel last Friday
• “The (Egyptian ) army is weakening, losing its autonomy to the benefit of the government. That is bad for us. It is vital that we maintain the relationship with Egypt at any price.” – former Israeli defense minister and national infrastructures minister, and current Labor Party MK, Benjamin “Fouad” Ben-Eliezer said in an interview with Haaretz

While We Were Looking Elsewhere

Jordan. King Abdullah swore in a new thirty-member cabinet on Wednesday following the resignation of his prime minister Awn Khasawneh last week. The new prime minister, Fayez Tarawneh, has been tasked with preparing for parliamentary elections at the end of the year. His appointment has been met with criticism. Jamil Abu Baker, a spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood, called it “a set-back for reforms. It entrenches a pre-Arab Spring mentality… The prime minister is conservative and his views and position on reform are well-known.”

Bahrain. A Bahraini appeals court on Monday approved a retrial for twenty-one opposition activists, including hunger striker Abdulhadi al-Khawaja. Eight of the activists, including Khawaja, were given life sentences in June by military courts for their roles in last year’s uprising. The judge ruled that those currently in prison will remain there until a verdict in a new trial. No date has been announced for the retrial. On Wednesday, King Hamad accused foreign media of exaggerating the unrest in Bahrain and inciting violence.

Libya. The head of the electoral committee, Nuri Abbar, announced the opening of voter and candidate registration centers on Tuesday. He said that there are over 1,350 centers spread across the country. Elections for a constituent assembly that will choose a panel of experts to draft a constitution are scheduled for June. Libyan authorities also passed a law on Thursday that granted immunity to former revolutionaries for any act “made necessary by the February 17 revolution.” Meanwhile, on Monday Libya formally requested the ICC to declare the case of former dictator Muammar Qaddafi’s son Seif al-Islam’s case inadmissible and quash the surrender request so that he may be tried in country. Libya and the International Criminal Court have been at odds over who has the right to try Seif since his apprehension in November.

Hamas. A meeting in Cairo between Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal and senior Fatah official Azzam al-Ahmed in Cairo failed to make any progress toward a unity deal, according to Palestinian officials. One negotiator, speaking anonymously, said that two hours of talks Wednesday night, a bid following up on the unity agreement reached in Doha on February 6, produced “nothing new.”

This Week in History

This week marks Iran’s celebration of National Persian Gulf Day, commemorating the expulsion of the Portuguese from the Strait of Hormuz in 1622 under the Safavid king Shah Abbas I. The holiday also celebrates the “Persian” aspect of the Gulf’s name, in response to perceived attempts to erode its ancient imperial history by neighboring Arab states and their Western allies through attempts to change the name to either the “Arabian Gulf” or simply “the Gulf.” In 2004, Iran banned the sale of the National Geographic’s Eighth Edition Atlas of the World because it included “Arabian Gulf” as an alternate name in parenthesis underneath “Persian Gulf” on a map. Iranian newspapers note that the “Persian Gulf” has been thus named since the Achaemenid Empire and is the waterway’s only legitimate name. This year’s celebration of National Persian Gulf Day comes amidst a diplomatic row with the states of the Arabian Peninsula over territorial rights to the islands of Abu Musa, the Greater Tunb, and the Lesser Tunb. A ceremony was held in the coastal town of Bushehr complete with a parade of naval warships and vessels.

Statistic of the Week

According to the 2012 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey, being paid a fair wage and owning a home have supplanted living in a democratic country as the top two priorities for young people living in the Middle East. Eighty-two percent of respondents chose being paid a far wage as very important followed by 65 percent that chose owning their own home. In 2011, nearly 70 percent of respondents selected living in a democratic state as one of their top priorities, but this year the number dropped to 58 percent. The poll also found that 40 percent picked the UAE as the preferred role model for their own country, compared to 28 percent that chose Turkey and 18 percent that chose Saudi Arabia.

Significant Middle East Developments

Syria. The United Nations Security Council established the U.N. Supervision Mission in Syria on Saturday, increasing the number of ceasefire monitors there from thirty to three hundred. UN special envoy Kofi Annan subsequently urged the Security Council on Tuesday to deploy the expanded unarmed military mission rapidly. However, the head of U.N. peacekeeping operations, Herve Ladsous, said it will take a month to deploy the first one hundred monitors. French foreign minister Alain Juppe announced on Wednesday that he would push for the deployment of the entire three hundred person contingent within two weeks. Juppe also suggested that France would push for Security Council action under Chapter Seven of the UN Charter if Assad’s government does not fully implement the Annan peace plan by early May. Meanwhile, an explosion ripped through a residential building in Hama on Thursday killing at least sixteen Syrian civilians. The opposition blamed government shelling for the deaths while Syrian state media accused terrorists of bombing the building.

Iraq. Massoud Barzani, the president of Iraq’s Kurdistan region, warned on Wednesday that Kurdish voters may consider secession if Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and his Shiite bloc do not agree to share power by September. He said that Iraq’s unity is threatened by Maliki’s “dictatorship and authoritarian rule.” Barzani’s comments followed earlier remarks on Sunday in which he expressed his concerns that Maliki might use F-16 warplanes against Iraqi Kurdistan, saying “We must either prevent him from having these weapons, or if he has them, he should not stay in his position.” Iraqi Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr arrived in Kurdistan on Thursday in an attempt to help resolve the situation.

Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments

Yemen. The White House has granted the CIA and the U.S. military greater leeway to target suspected al-Qaeda operatives in Yemen with drones, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. The shift in policy, confirmed by senior officials, is a significant expansion of the drone war against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), considered to be the most active affiliate of the terrorist network. Until now, drone strikes were only allowed against known terrorist leaders whose names were on CIA and Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) lists. The expanded authority will allow the CIA and JSOC to target lower-level terrorist operatives whose names may not be known but whose militant activities suggest the presence of an important operative or the intention to attack U.S. interests.

Quotes of the Week

• “The Sinai is turning into a kind of Wild West which…terror groups from Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and al-Qaida, with the aid of Iran, are using to smuggle arms, to bring in arms, to mount attacks against Israel.” – Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaking on Israel Radio Tuesday
• “The Russians and Chinese, and the Iranians must understand that this man is finished and they cannot defend him. They must persuade him to leave power and hand over to his deputy.” – Tunisian president Moncef Marzouki quoted by the regional Arab newspaper Al-Hayat Tuesday
• “Turkey tried to restructure the geopolitics in the region on the basis of getting everybody together to focus on the economy—now we’re at a point where we see major sectarianism and we need to step back.” – Iraqi vice president Tariq al-Hashemi speaking on Wednesday in Istanbul

While We Were Looking Elsewhere

Jordan. Jordan’s prime minister Awn Khasawneh suddenly resigned today after barely six months in office. Khasawneh, an International Court of Justice judge, was appointed by King Abdullah to bring about political reforms. His proposed election law has drawn sharp criticism from the Muslim Brotherhood and its political arm, the IAF, which criticized the limitation on seats that could be won by political parties. In a letter announcing the move, Abdullah said that reforms in Jordan are not moving ahead apace. Meanwhile, press reports indicated that Khasawneh was unhappy at the limitations placed on his authority as prime minister. The king announced the appointment of Fayez Tarawneh, who previously served as prime minister in the 1990s, to once again serve in that post.

Egypt. Egypt’s election commission reversed its decision to ban former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq on Wednesday, allowing him to be included in the finalized list of thirteen candidates that was released today. Shafiq had been disqualified on Tuesday after the military council approved a new law passed by parliament that banned from public office anyone who had served as vice president or prime minister in the last ten years of Mubarak’s rule. Campaigning for the presidency will formally begin on April 30, and the first round of elections will take place on May 23 and 24.

Bahrain. Riot police employed tear gas against protesters on Tuesday, dispersing the crowd before it could reach Pearl Square in Manama. The protests came a day after the funeral of a young man who had been found dead on Saturday night after clashes between demonstrators and security forces on the eve of Bahrain’s Formula One race. The unrest intensified in the week leading up to the race, and has continued to escalate over the worsening condition of imprisoned activist Abdulhadi al-Khawaja who has been on a hunger strike. A bomb explosion in the village of Diraz wounded four police officers on Tuesday night. On Wednesday, State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland issued a statement condemning all violence and urging restraint.

UAE-Iran. In the latest round of tension between the UAE and Iran over the disputed island of Abu Musa, the Iranian parliament announced plans on Monday to establish a new province with Abu Musa as its capital. Vali Esmayeeli, a member of the Iranian parliament’s Councils and Interior Policy Commission told Fars News Agency that the new province would be named the Persian Gulf Province. Abu Musa, in addition to the Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb, are at the center of a UAE-Iranian territorial dispute. On Tuesday, Sharjah ruler Sheikh Sultan bin Mohammed Al Qasimi pledged to provide a ship to provide safe and reliable transportation between the UAE and Abu Musa.

This Week in History

This week marks the nineteenth anniversary of the first parliamentary elections to take place in a unified Yemen. The election resulted in a three-part coalition composed of President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s People’s General Congress (GPC), the Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP), which had previously governed southern Yemen, and Islah, the Islamist opposition party. The election was hailed at the time by the National Democratic Institute for establishing Yemen as “the most democratically developed and stable Arab state…worthy of study and emulation.” However, the coalition broke apart less than a year later and the country was consumed by a short civil war that resulted in the defeat of the southern forces and the consolidation of power in the hands of Saleh and some of his supporters.

Statistic of the Week

The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) reported on Tuesday that over six thousand Syrians have registered with the agency in Jordan over the last month. The total number of Syrians registered as refugees has exceeded twelve thousand, and UNHCR expects that figure to rise to fifteen thousand by the end of April. A spokesperson for UNHCR said that the agency has only received $15.6 million out of the eighty-four million dollars it requested for support services for Syrian refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and Iraq.

Significant Middle East Developments

Syria. The United Nations Security Council unanimously passed a resolution Saturday authorizing the deployment of a thirty-person monitoring mission to oversee the Syrian ceasefire. By the time the first observers arrived in Syria on Monday, violence had flared up in recent flashpoint towns, including Homs and Hama. Clashes also broke out near the Turkish border. In light of the continued violence, France convened a Friends of Syria meeting today in Paris that fourteen foreign ministers, including Secretary of State Clinton, attended. The Friends group issued an urgent call to Syrian president Assad to implement the Annan plan. Meanwhile, the Syrian foreign ministry announced today that it had reached agreement with the UN on the terms of a cease-fire monitoring mission. The Syrians announced that the agreement “aims to facilitate the task of the observers within the framework of Syrian sovereignty.” The UNSC meets today for a briefing by Kofi Annan’s deputy Jean-Marie Guehenno to discuss the possibility of deploying a larger monitoring mission, perhaps numbering three hundred observers.

Egypt. The presidential election commission reaffirmed on Tuesday its disqualification of ten presidential candidates, just weeks before the vote is set to begin on May 23. The three front-runners ejected are Muslim Brotherhood candidate Khairat al-Shater, former spy chief and vice president Omar Suleiman, and the Salafist candidate Hazem Abu Ismail. Shater reacted to the news by accusing the ruling military council of fraud and of not being serious about transferring power. He then announced that the Muslim Brotherhood would take to Tahrir Square on Friday to protest. Out of the thirteen remaining candidates, the leading candidates left include former foreign minister and Arab League head Amr Moussa, Freedom and Justice Party leader Mohamed el-Morsi, and former Brotherhood member Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh.

Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments

Iran. Iran and P5+1 negotiators agreed to meet again on May 23 in Baghdad following ten hours of talks on Saturday in Istanbul. While the talks did not produce anything concrete, Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, called them “constructive and useful.” Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticized the meeting on Sunday for giving Iran a “freebie” by allowing it to buy time and continue enriching uranium for another five weeks without limitations. President Obama responded to Netanyahu’s Sunday criticism, dismissing the notion that Iran has been given a pass, emphasizing that “they’ve got some of the toughest sanctions that they’re going to be facing coming up in just a few months if they don’t take advantage of these talks.” Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak expressed doubts on Tuesday about the talks with Iran, and said that the ongoing talks do not mean that Iran is exempt from an Israeli military strike.

Quotes of the Week

• “There are many reasons which have contributed to the weakening of the Palestinian Authority, but its dissolution is out of the question.” – Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas told the Palestinian daily Al-Ayyam on Monday
• “I regret that Russia continues to lock itself into a vision that isolates it more and more, not just from the Arab world but also from the international community.” – French foreign minister Alain Juppe said on Thursday ahead of talks in Paris with foreign ministers supporting tougher action against Bashar al-Assad
• “We are at a crucial turning point… Either we succeed in pushing forward with Kofi Annan’s plan in accordance with the Security Council direction, with the help of monitors steadily broadening and deepening a zone of non-conflict and peace, or we see Assad squandering his last chance before additional measures have to be considered.” – U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton said on Wednesday

While We Were Looking Elsewhere

Jordan. The Lower House of Jordan’s parliament voted on Monday to amend a new election law forbidding political parties based on a religious, ethnic, or sectarian basis. The measure appears to disqualify the Islamic Action Front, the Muslim Brotherhood’s political branch, from running in upcoming parliamentary elections. The new election law is being touted as a key piece of the Jordanian government’s effort to introduce political reform, though it has been met thus far with mixed reactions, with the IAF talking of boycotting the elections.

Bahrain. Hundreds of protesters clashed with security forces in Manama on Thursday in the run-up to this weekend’s Formula One Grand Prix. Security forces fired tear gas and stun grenades at the protesters, who heckled the race and called for the release of Abdulhadi al-Khawaja, a jailed activist who has been on a hunger strike for more than two months. Bahraini police briefly had detained two international human rights officials–Tom Malinowski, Washington director of Human Rights Watch, and Nadim Houry, the organization’s deputy director for the Middle East—for observing protests in which scores more were arrested. Protesters have vowed to hold daily demonstrations all week in a rebuke to Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, generally seen as a regime reformer and the race’s main backer. Two members of Force India’s Formula One team left Bahrain after a Molotov cocktail was thrown near their car in a traffic jam caused by an anti-regime protest on Wednesday. The Grand Prix was cancelled last year because of the unrest.

Israel-Palestine. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu met on Tuesday with a Palestinian Authority delegation comprised of negotiator Saeb Erekat and intelligence chief Majed Faraj. Netanyahu accepted a long-anticipated letter the Palestinians delivered from PA president Mahmoud Abbas. Prime Minister Salam Fayyad had been expected to join the group, but bowed out in solidarity with more than one thousand Palestinian prisoners who began a hunger strike protesting conditions in Israeli jails. The letter, watered down from previous drafts leaked publicly, specified Palestinian grievances and demanded an Israeli settlement construction halt. Netanyahu promised a written response within two weeks. In an extraordinary move, the two sides issued a joint statement expressing their hope that the exchange of letters would help them find a way to advance peace. No other countries were involved in the effort to bring the two sides together.

UAE. The GCC foreign ministers met in Doha on Tuesday to discuss Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmedinajed’s visit last week to the disputed Gulf island of Abu Musa. The GCC condemned the visit as “provocative” and urged Iran to end its occupation of Abu Musa and two other small nearby islands–Greater Tunb and Lower Tunb. Iran seized control of the three small islands, valued for their strategic proximity to the Strait of Hormuz and potential oil reserves, in 1971 when British forces withdrew and the UAE was in the process of uniting and declaring its independence. Iran responded to the GCC condemnation menacingly, with ground forces commander General Ahmad Reza Pourdastan declaring Thursday that “If these disturbances are not solved through diplomacy, the military forces are ready to show the power of Iran to the offender. Iran will strongly defend its right.”

Libya. Libya’s interim prime minister, Abdel Rahim al-Kib, plans to reshuffle his cabinet following warnings by the National Transition Council on Monday that it was ready to cast a no-confidence vote against al-Kib and his cabinet. The interim government has been criticized for failing to reactivate the army, to integrate the militias, and to combat corruption. A program to reward people who had fought against Qaddafi last year was shut down on April 7 after it was discovered that money was being handed to people who had not fought in the uprising or who were pretending to be fighters who were now dead.

This Week in History

This week marks the ninety-second anniversary of the Conference of San Remo, the international meeting convened to determine the fate of the former territories of the Ottoman Turkish Empire following World War I. The prime ministers of Great Britain, France, and Italy and representatives of Japan, Greece, and Belgium attended the conference. Held from April 19-26, 1920, the attendees approved the final framework of a peace treaty with Turkey, later signed in August of that year. The conference also created two “A” mandates out of the former Ottoman province of Syria. The northern portion, consisting of present-day Syria and Lebanon, was placed under French mandatory authority. The southern part, named Palestine, and the province of Mesopotamia, present-day Iraq, were mandated to Great Britain. To many in the Middle East today, this approach created the foundation for much of the dysfunctional politics in these areas over the enduring near century.

Statistic of the Week

According to a poll conducted by Egypt’s Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, Omar Suleiman’s disqualification from the presidential race will likely benefit Ahmed Shafiq and Amr Moussa. Of the voters who had been inclined to vote for Suleiman, 40.4 percent listed Shafiq as their second choice and 27.4 percent listed Moussa. The disqualification of Hazam Abu Ismail is likely to most benefit Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, as 29.9 percent of Ismail supporters listed Fotouh as their second choice, and 25 percent listed Khairat al-Shater, who has also been disqualified. The first round of voting is scheduled to begin May 23.