Today in prediction market news, we’re following the biggest developments shaping the industry, including fresh legal setbacks for Kalshi in its fight with New York regulators, a White House official’s response to allegations involving prediction market bets tied to President Trump, and a coordinated push by 44 state attorneys general urging the CFTC to reject proposed prediction market rules.

We’ll also cover Minnesota’s latest actions on prediction markets, including a new executive order on insider betting and court developments clarifying the state’s enforcement authority, as well as ProphetX’s $35 million funding round, the launch of a prediction market-focused media company, regulatory updates, and other breaking prediction market news throughout the day.

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Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has signed an executive order barring state employees from using confidential or nonpublic government information to participate in prediction markets, saying the measure is designed to strengthen ethics rules and preserve public confidence in state government.

The action arrives as online prediction markets continue attracting more users, letting people wager on the outcomes of future events ranging from elections and sporting contests to government decisions and economic developments. Walz argued the platforms are especially vulnerable to insider trading because people with access to confidential information could gain an unfair financial advantage.

Announcing the order on social media, Walz criticized President Donald Trump and prediction market operator Kalshi.

“Trump and companies like Kalshi are more interested in lining their pockets than protecting public trust and keeping people safe,” Walz wrote. “Regardless of their grift, I’m taking action to reinforce the strong ethical standards we have in Minnesota.”

Walz separates employee ethics rules from wider prediction market legal dispute

The executive order covers employees across Minnesota state agencies, including the governor, lieutenant governor and agency commissioners. It bars them from using “not public data or confidential information obtained in the course of their state agency employment to further their private interest, or the private interest of another person or organization, through participation in a prediction market.” The restriction still applies even when no profit is made or loss avoided.

Walz said in the order that “Ethical and transparent government is vital to maintaining trust and confidence in the integrity of our public institutions.” He added that he has “been a longtime advocate for strong ethical standards in government because the public trust should never be exploited for personal profit.”

The order describes prediction markets as systems allowing consumers to wager on future outcomes involving elections, sports, official government actions, legal proceedings and economic indicators.

Employees who break the policy could face disciplinary measures, including dismissal. The order also says violations may carry criminal penalties under existing Minnesota law.

Walz further encouraged public bodies outside the executive branch, including the Legislature, the judicial branch and other state entities, to review their own ethics policies and consider similar restrictions aimed at preventing misuse of confidential information.

The executive order was signed on July 28, 2026. It takes effect 15 days after publication in the State Register and filing with the Minnesota Secretary of State, remaining in force until rescinded or until it expires under state law.

The announcement follows a separate legal dispute over Minnesota’s broader effort to regulate prediction markets. On Tuesday (July 28), a federal judge granted a preliminary injunction preventing the state from enforcing a law scheduled to take effect on 1 August while challenges from Kalshi, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and QCX LLC, which operates Polymarket US, proceed. 

Judge Katherine M. Menendez said the plaintiffs had shown they were likely to succeed on claims that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts Minnesota’s statute, although she stressed the ruling is preliminary and the case will continue. Kalshi welcomed the decision, arguing regulation of federally designated event-contract markets rests with federal authorities rather than individual states.

Featured image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0

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The National Council of Legislators from Gaming States (NCLGS) has formally backed keeping sports wagering and broader gambling policy under state control as prediction markets continue spreading across the United States.

Its Executive Committee unanimously approved a resolution during the group’s July meeting in San Diego. The measure points to the proliferation of prediction markets, where participants can stake money on political elections, economic indicators, sporting events and other real-world outcomes while largely operating outside the regulatory systems used for licensed sportsbooks, casinos and other legal gambling.

NCLGS supports states pushing back against federal oversight over prediction markets

NCLGS says prediction markets have become one of the biggest topics at its national meetings. To explore the issue, the organisation has brought together legal scholars, gaming regulators, industry executives, financial market specialists, attorneys and policymakers to examine whether sports event prediction contracts belong under federal commodities law or state gaming law.

“NCLGS exists to provide legislators with objective, substantive education on the most important issues facing gaming policy,” said Juliann Barreto, Chief Operating Officer of Spectrum Gaming Group, which serves as NCLGS Executive Director. “Prediction markets represent one of the most significant emerging issues confronting state policymakers, and we have ensured that our members hear directly from experts on all sides of the debate.”

The resolution arrives as a coalition of 44 state attorneys general is separately urging the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to withdraw and rewrite its proposed prediction markets rule. In comments filed with the agency, the attorneys general argued the proposal would improperly shift oversight of sports betting from state regulators to a federal body that Congress never authorized to police gambling.

The coalition said states have spent years building licensing systems, consumer safeguards, responsible gaming programmes, advertising standards and enforcement frameworks. It also argued sports wagers are not financial derivatives because they do not serve hedging or price-discovery purposes, making them unsuitable for regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act.

NCLGS said congressional hearings on prediction markets have further increased attention on the issue. The organisation believes those discussions reinforce the need to preserve the authority of states and tribal governments to regulate gaming within their own borders.

The group reaffirmed its long-held position that primary responsibility for gaming regulation should remain with individual states, adding that many legislators, regulators and tribal governments share that view. It also encouraged Congress and federal agencies to weigh the possible consequences for existing state and tribal gaming policies before taking further action.

Looking ahead, NCLGS said it will continue providing a national forum where policymakers can hear competing viewpoints, examine legal and regulatory developments, and shape public policy through evidence, expertise and respectful debate. The organization describes itself as the only national association of state legislators dedicated to gaming policy education and says its public meetings bring together lawmakers, regulators, operators, suppliers, attorneys, lobbyists, journalists and other stakeholders to discuss regulated and unregulated gambling issues.

Featured image: Canva

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Kalshi has lost its latest attempt to stop New York regulators from enforcing state gaming laws while the company appeals an earlier court setback. In an order issued on Monday (July 27), U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres refused Kalshi’s request for an emergency injunction pending appeal and also denied its alternative request for short-term administrative relief. That means the court’s earlier decision refusing a preliminary injunction against officials from the New York State Gaming Commission remains in place as the appeal continues.

Judge Torres said the company had not cleared the higher legal hurdle required for emergency relief after a preliminary injunction has already been denied. Citing Second Circuit precedent, she wrote that a party seeking such relief “must show that they have a ‘strong’ likelihood of success on the merits”—a requirement that is “more” demanding than the standard for a preliminary injunction.

The judge said the company was effectively asking the court to reconsider conclusions it had already reached. “Kalshi asks the Court to reverse itself,” the order said. It added that “the fact that a court previously found that a preliminary injunction was not warranted should carry significant weight, so the circumstances must be of unusual magnitude to justify a district court granting an injunction pending appeal after denying a preliminary injunction.”

Judge Torres concluded that Kalshi had not identified circumstances meeting that demanding standard. The company argued it faced what it described as a “Hobson’s Choice” between violating New York law and risking substantial liability or violating a Commodity Futures Trading Commission order and jeopardising its federal registration. The court said it had already addressed that claim and remained unconvinced.

The order noted that the court had previously found “Kalshi has not presented any evidence that the possibility of the CFTC revocation of its designation as a [designated contract market] is more than mere speculation.” It also reaffirmed its earlier conclusion that Kalshi’s alleged injuries were “largely monetary” and stemmed from “the ordinary burdens and costs complying with government regulation [that] are typically insufficient to constitute irreparable harm.”

The judge also rejected the company’s renewed argument that it was likely to succeed on appeal, writing that Kalshi “largely repackages its briefing on the preliminary injunction motion” and relies on the possibility that the Second Circuit “may disagree with the Court’s interpretation” of federal law. She concluded that “[t]he sheer possibility of a reversal—a possibility that exists in every appeal—is insufficient for the Court to find an injunction [] or administrative stay is necessary.”

Separately, New York has filed its opposition to Kalshi’s emergency motion for an injunction pending appeal in the Second Circuit, urging the court to follow the Sixth Circuit’s recent denial of similar relief to Kalshi, with a decision expected in the coming days.

New York Kalshi dispute fits wider regulatory battle

The latest ruling follows Kalshi’s legal campaign against state regulators. In October 2025, the company sued the New York State Gaming Commission after receiving a cease-and-desist letter alleging its sports event contracts violated state law. 

Kalshi argues that federal law gives the CFTC exclusive authority over its exchange and says state enforcement is preempted. 

Judge Torres, however, again said a recent CFTC proposed rulemaking did not change her view, explaining that the court “must exercise independent judgment in determining the meaning of statutory provisions” and that Kalshi had offered “no new authority” supporting a different conclusion. She also declined to revisit findings that pausing enforcement could harm New York and the public before directing the clerk to terminate the motion.

Featured image: Kalshi / Canva

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A coalition of 44 state attorneys general is pressing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to abandon and rewrite its proposed prediction markets rule, saying the agency is trying to regulate sports betting without legal authority. 

The group argues the plan would shift control away from long-established state gambling regulators and hand it to a federal agency that was never given that responsibility by Congress.

Attorneys general warn CFTC rule on prediction markets would override state protections

In comments submitted to the CFTC, the attorneys general said the proposal “would drastically expand federal regulatory authority in an area of major economic and political consequence that States have traditionally regulated.” They maintain the Commodity Exchange Act does not empower the commission to oversee sports betting through event contracts and that the proposal crosses both statutory and constitutional boundaries.

The coalition said states have spent years building licensing systems, consumer protections, responsible gaming programmes, advertising rules and enforcement frameworks tailored to their own laws. They warned those safeguards could be displaced by a single nationwide approach directed by the CFTC.

The letter argues sports wagers cannot be treated like traditional financial derivatives because they are not designed to hedge commercial risk or aid price discovery. “Sports bets are not swaps, futures, or other derivatives,” the letter states. “Sports bets serve no hedging, price-discovery, or other financial purpose consistent with financial derivatives, so they are not the type of instrument Congress envisioned would fall within the statute’s reach.”

The attorneys general also reject the commission’s reading of the Commodity Exchange Act’s event contract provisions, saying Congress intended them to limit certain gambling-related products rather than authorise them. They also object to the proposal’s suggestion that state gambling laws would be pre-empted in favour of nationally uniform derivatives regulation. “The Proposed Rule takes a sledgehammer to the States’ historic power,” the attorneys general wrote, adding that it would give the CFTC “a virtual veto over state policies.”

The filing says the proposal ignores extensive state consumer protections, including age verification, integrity monitoring, exclusion programmes and restrictions on athletes, coaches and officials. It also argues the rule conflicts with the Wire Act and the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act. “Sports bets are placed for recreation or entertainment, not as financial derivatives,” the letter states. “The CFTC lacks jurisdiction over sports bets because they are not financial derivatives.”

The dispute follows months of escalating clashes. New York Attorney General Letitia James previously warned that prediction markets lack the consumer protections required of licensed sportsbooks and cautioned operators that unlicensed sports wagering could bring civil and criminal liability. 

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has taken the opposite position, insisting event contracts serve legitimate economic purposes and recently backing Crypto.com in appellate litigation while defending the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction. The conflict widened further when the CFTC and the US Department of Justice sued several states over attempts to block sports-related event contracts, setting up a wider court battle over whether these products are federally regulated derivatives or state-regulated gambling. 

The coalition ultimately urged the commission to withdraw the proposal and produce a replacement consistent with the Commodity Exchange Act and the US Constitution.

Featured image: Ajay Suresh via WikiCommons / CC BY 4.0

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Today in prediction market news, we’re following the biggest developments shaping the industry, including Kalshi’s federal court victory after a Minnesota judge granted a preliminary injunction sought by the company and the CFTC, Fanatics’ agreement to acquire a federally regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse from BGC Group, and tastytrade’s launch of prediction markets. We’ll also cover fresh CFTC developments, including new rulemaking commentary from Sen. Chris Dodd and the agency’s approval of JuiceX as a designated contract market, alongside the latest on election markets, crypto, regulation, sports event trading, and other breaking prediction market news throughout the day.

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Illinois has officially added gambling disorder to its behavioral health framework after Governor JB Pritzker signed Senate Bill 2749 into law on July 24, 2026. The measure is now Public Act 104-0626 and takes effect immediately. By changing the Substance Use Disorder Act, the state places gambling disorder alongside substance use disorders when planning prevention, treatment and recovery services.

The updated law widens Illinois’ legislative findings by identifying gambling disorder as a public health concern. It states that “substance use disorders and gambling disorders are among the most serious public health problems in Illinois” and says prevention, intervention, treatment and recovery support services should be available to improve the health and well-being of affected individuals, families and communities.

Illinois expands behavioral health system to include gambling disorder

Another key change is the creation of a formal legal definition for gambling disorder. The statute describes it as “persistent and recurrent problematic gambling behavior leading to clinically significant impairment or distress” that is consistent with the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) published by the American Psychiatric Association.

The legislation also gives the Illinois Department of Human Services a wider role. The department will oversee programmes focused on gambling disorder prevention, treatment and recovery support. Its responsibilities include public education campaigns, maintaining a problem gambling website and helpline, supporting research into gambling-related harms, encouraging suicide prevention efforts and awarding grants for gambling disorder services when funding is available. It must also work with the Illinois State Board of Education, where instructional resources are developed, to help make gambling disorder education available in schools.

The law also weaves gambling disorder into Illinois’ existing behavioral health system. Licensed substance use disorder treatment providers can offer gambling disorder treatment as an additional service, while recovery residences may accommodate people recovering from gambling disorder. Existing patient rights and confidentiality protections under the Substance Use Disorder Act now extend to those receiving gambling disorder prevention, treatment and recovery services.

Senate Bill 2749 was sponsored by Sen. Julie Morrison in the Senate and Rep. Bob Morgan in the House before winning bipartisan approval in the General Assembly. With the governor’s signature, Illinois joins a growing list of states formally recognizing gambling disorder within public behavioral health systems.

The move follows wider debate over gambling policy in Illinois. Last year, DraftKings chief executive Jason Robins criticized the state’s planned per-bet tax on major operators to curb problem gambling, arguing during a CNBC interview that higher costs could push consumers towards illegal betting markets or encourage larger wagers. He also warned that operators might have little choice but to pass some of those costs on to customers.

Featured image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0

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Former U.S. Sen. Christopher J. Dodd is pressing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to abandon a proposed rule on prediction markets, saying it would depart from what Congress intended when it approved the Dodd-Frank Act after the 2008 financial crisis. 

His July 26 letter to CFTC Secretary Christopher Kirkpatrick argues the proposal could encourage gambling through regulated derivatives markets instead of preserving the law’s original purpose.

“In the past year, additional speculators have emerged promoting event contracts that are merely a substitute for gambling,” Dodd wrote. “The CFTC is now engaged in work to amend its regulations to facilitate gambling on derivatives exchanges.”

The former Connecticut senator said the proposed changes “contradict the language and intent of the Dodd-Frank Act” and “could well endanger consumers and promote speculation.” He also argued the rule would weaken state authority over gaming policy and “functionally amend the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA), which could diminish tribal sovereignty.”

Dodd says CFTC prediction markets proposal conflicts with congressional intent

Dodd said lawmakers crafted the legislation to support legitimate hedging while stopping derivatives markets from becoming vehicles for gambling. “Congress recognized the importance of traditional risk-hedging in futures markets when we enacted Dodd-Frank,” he wrote. “We wanted to provide a framework for regulating companies trying to hedge their risk.”

He also stressed that Congress never meant to displace state gaming laws or rewrite existing federal gaming statutes.

“We did not amend the Commodity Exchange Act to override the established system for states to develop their own policies and laws regulating gaming,” Dodd wrote. “We had no intention of amending those laws.”

Pointing to a congressional colloquy, Dodd said legislators anticipated attempts to introduce gambling through event contracts using the law’s swap provisions. He cited the statement, “This provision will strengthen the government’s ability to protect the public interest from gaming contracts and other events contracts.”

Dodd added, “The term ‘gaming’ was included in the Special Rule to prevent things like sports wagering and other similar wagers through regulated ‘event contracts,'” and said the word is “a legal term of art that Congress has used in statutes when regulating what is commonly known as ‘gambling.'”

His arguments echo those made by former CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler in a June friend-of-the-court brief supporting Ohio regulators in litigation against prediction-market company Kalshi. Gensler wrote that Dodd-Frank never transformed the CFTC into a national sports betting regulator, saying, “This case boils down to the question of what, if anything, Congress did in Dodd-Frank with regard to sports betting.” He answered, “The answer—from someone who was there—is that Congress did nothing of the sort.”

Dodd closed by calling recent growth in sports-related event contracts “the type of rampant speculation we sought to prohibit with the Dodd-Frank bill.” He urged the agency to withdraw the proposal, writing, “The CFTC’s proposed regulations would undermine both the letter and the spirit of the law, infringe on state and tribal sovereignty, and pose grave risks to ordinary consumers.” He finished by asking the commission to “rescind its proposed rule and prohibit companies from engaging in illegal gaming on regulated exchanges.”

Featured image: Christopher Dodd, U.S. Senator via WikiCommons / Public domain

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Kalshi has welcomed a federal court decision granting a preliminary injunction that stops Minnesota from enforcing its new prediction market law while the legal challenge continues. The ruling keeps the status quo in place before the statute’s planned August 1, 2026 start date and marks the latest development in a dispute over whether states can restrict federally regulated event-contract markets.

In a statement after the decision, Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said the ruling confirms that regulation of those markets belongs to federal authorities alone.

“Minnesota was the first state to pass a law banning prediction markets, and a court prevented it from being enforced less than two months later,” Diana said. 

“Today’s decision makes it clear: States cannot ban things that they don’t have jurisdiction over. It runs directly against what Congress intended when it gave explicit, exclusive jurisdiction over financial markets to federal regulators, and it hurts the traders and everyday citizens who rely on these markets. We appreciate the court’s thoughtful consideration of this matter.”

Court signals federal law may preempt Minnesota measure against Kalshi

Judge Katherine M. Menendez of the U.S. District Court for the District of Minnesota issued the ruling in consolidated cases involving the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Kalshi and QCX LLC, which operates Polymarket US. 

She found the plaintiffs had shown a likelihood of success on their argument that the Commodity Exchange Act expressly preempts Minnesota’s prediction market statute, that they faced irreparable harm, and that the balance of harms and public interest favoured temporary relief.

The legal battle began after Minnesota lawmakers advanced legislation targeting prediction markets before incorporating it into a broader public safety package. Governor Tim Walz signed the measure in May, making Minnesota the first state to create felony penalties for operating, facilitating, supporting or advertising many categories of prediction markets covering sports, elections, wars, legal proceedings, emergencies and other future events.

Before the law could take effect, Kalshi sued the state, arguing the Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over qualifying event contracts traded on federally designated contract markets. The company also challenged restrictions on advertising, saying Minnesota could not criminalize speech promoting products permitted under federal law. The CFTC later filed its own challenge, and Polymarket US brought a separate case that was later consolidated.

Minnesota defended the statute by arguing states retain longstanding authority to regulate gambling and protect public welfare. State lawyers cited concerns including gambling addiction, insider trading, market manipulation and public confidence, while maintaining Congress never intended federal commodities law to displace traditional state powers.

Even so, the court stressed the decision is only preliminary. Judge Menendez said the plaintiffs had not yet established that every event contract offered by Kalshi and Polymarket US qualifies as a statutory swap, meaning the eventual scope of any permanent injunction could be narrower after the case is fully heard.

Featured image: Kalshi / Canva

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Nevada and Kalshi have agreed to put an escalating contempt fight on hold after jointly asking the court to cancel a scheduled hearing and instead oversee the rollout of stronger geofencing technology. The agreement shifts the immediate focus from sanctions to technical compliance while the broader legal battle over prediction market contracts continues.

Nevada and Kalshi agree temporary geofencing-related path forward 

The joint filing, submitted by the State of Nevada through the Nevada Gaming Control Board and Kalshi, asks the court to vacate a July 29, 2026 hearing that had been scheduled to consider the state’s application for an order to show cause regarding contempt. Nevada filed that application after investigators said they could still place trades on sports, election and entertainment event contracts despite an amended preliminary injunction requiring those markets to be blocked within the state.

The stipulation explains that “the Parties agree that entry of this Stipulation supports vacating the Hearing.” It further provides, “The Hearing set for July 29, 2026 is hereby vacated.” Unless either side later seeks court approval to change the arrangement, the agreement will remain effective “for as long as the Amended PI Order is in place.”

The dispute stems from a March 2025 cease-and-desist order issued by Nevada regulators, who argue Kalshi’s event contracts amount to unlicensed gambling under state law. A temporary restraining order followed in March 2026 before the court later entered an amended preliminary injunction. Earlier this year, a federal judge also declined to halt Nevada’s enforcement effort, writing that “Litigating in state court is not a harm, let alone an irreparable harm.”

The new filing acknowledges that, “notwithstanding Kalshi’s implementation of IP-based and residency-based trading blocks, the State’s investigators have successfully placed trades in sports-, election-, and entertainment-related event contracts during the pendency of the Court’s Amended PI Order.”

Kalshi also makes clear it is not accepting liability. The stipulation states, “For the avoidance of doubt, Kalshi does not concede that any such trades amount to cause for an order of contempt, and Kalshi reserves all rights and defenses in this respect.”

Instead of immediately arguing contempt, the parties will concentrate on GeoComply’s geofencing rollout. Kalshi must complete deployment or file “a sworn affidavit of a Kalshi and/or GeoComply representative explaining why implementation of the geofencing solution remains incomplete.” If the court later concludes Kalshi “failed to show that it acted with sufficient diligence in implementing the GeoComply solution,” the company “may be subject to penalties in an amount to be determined by the Court.”

Kalshi will also provide Nevada with the same implementation updates shared with Michigan regulators and permit discussions with GeoComply alongside company counsel. The agreement additionally states that “The Stipulation is entirely separate from and will not be impacted by proceedings or findings in any other State, including but not limited to the State of Michigan.” The joint stipulation was signed on July 23 and now awaits court approval.

Featured image: Kalshi / Canva

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Netflix’s latest documentary has landed before it has even premiered, but not for the reasons the streaming giant might have hoped.

Prediction market platform Kalshi has sent Netflix a cease-and-desist letter accusing it of fabricating part of the trailer for Instadocs: The Prediction Games, claiming the promotional video falsely depicts trading on its platform in violation of a Nevada court order.

The July 24 letter, seen by ReadWrite, addressed to Netflix’s Director & Senior Counsel for Intellectual Property Lindsey Faivus, accuses the company of using “fabricated documents and false and misleading statements portraying trades being made on Kalshi in violation of a court order.” Kalshi demanded the trailer be removed within an hour and that Netflix issue a public retraction.

What should have been a fairly ordinary documentary moment, i.e., a World Cup watch party in Las Vegas, one participant proudly declares, “I like betting on Kalshi,” before holding up what appears to be a receipt showing a $5,000 trade on Spain to win the tournament.

Another participant boasts: “The guys in this house have made millions of dollars on prediction markets.”

The timing is notable. Reuters recently reported Kalshi processed $27 billion in trading volume and attracted around three million users during the World Cup, making the tournament a breakout moment for the regulated prediction market platform.

Kalshi suggests alleged inconsistencies put Netflix prediction market trailer under scrutiny

According to Kalshi, however, the trailer creates the impression that the trade took place in Nevada on July 19, 2026, despite a court order preventing the company from offering sports event contracts there since May. The company argues that implication is more than just inaccurate, it could undermine its ongoing legal battle with Nevada regulators.

Kalshi then proceeds to pick apart the receipt almost line by line.

It says the image is dated May 16, 2025, more than a year before the documentary says it was filmed. The phone screen also displays the word “Crop”, which Kalshi says suggests the participant is showing a saved image rather than using the app itself.

The company also claims the numbers simply do not add up. According to the letter, the Spain market had only around $580 in total trading volume during May 2025, making the apparent $5,000 trade impossible. It also points out that its platform has never used terms including “Bet Slip”, “Bet ID” or “wager”.

A documentary about prediction markets sparks a backlash from the industry 

Brandon Beckhardt, the company’s chief of staff, accused Netflix of missing the bigger story altogether.

“Netflix had a chance to make a genuinely interesting documentary about prediction markets,” he wrote on X. “Instead, they made a sensationalized film built on fiction.”

He alleged the trade slip shown in the trailer “looks nothing like our UI” and claimed it was “either photoshopped or AI-generated.” Beckhardt also questioned the choice of contributors, writing that “the people in the trailer aren’t even Kalshi traders.”

Kalshi spokesperson Jacki McGavick struck a similar tone, saying Netflix had “a chance to make a genuinely interesting documentary about prediction markets” but instead produced “a sensationalized film that had a clear agenda.”

She also challenged the trade itself, writing: “Beyond the trade slip being a total fake, there’s no way this trade even happened. By the end of May 2025, total volume on Spain was $510.”

According to Kalshi’s letter, the company raised its concerns directly with a Netflix employee responsible for editing the trailer before release.

Kalshi claims the employee acknowledged they had not realized the receipt was dated a year earlier or noticed the “Crop” label at the top of the image. The employee allegedly agreed the receipt would not appear in the finished documentary but declined to remove it from the trailer despite being told it was misleading. The letter also claims the employee said they were “not worried about that” after Kalshi warned the footage could create legal complications.

The company also notes that the gathering took place at a residence owned by a casino during a World Cup party hosted by Winible, which one participant describes in the documentary as “essentially OnlyFans for the sports betting creator economy.”

Kalshi argues that is significant because Winible has commercial relationships with sportsbooks and casinos, while Kalshi itself is engaged in legal battles with casino operators over the expansion of prediction markets.

Ironically, while Kalshi objects to how the documentary portrays its platform, The Prediction Games is hardly a promotional film.

The film explores both the promise and pitfalls of prediction markets 

Several contributors openly discuss the downsides of prediction markets.

Trader Isaac warns that influencer culture is becoming part of the problem.

“One of the things that is most dangerous, in my opinion, is an influencer saying how they paid their rent by guessing the weather, or some person on YouTube talking about how easy it is to get rich quick,” he says. “The more people you expose to that vice, the more people who are going to have serious problems.”

Another trader, Daniel, offers an even starker account.

“It has been the cause of significant stress, like I haven’t paid my rent for a month because of this specifically.”

Prediction market analyst Dustin Gouker goes further, arguing that legal distinctions do little to change the underlying behavior.

“It may not be legally gambling, but what is happening is 100% just gambling,” he says, estimating sports contracts account for around 85% to 90% of activity on Kalshi. He also questions whether Donald Trump Jr.’s positions on the boards of both Kalshi and Polymarket create potential conflicts of interest.

The documentary also includes Commodity Futures Trading Commission chairman Michael Selig, who dismisses those concerns.

“There are agreements and walls that are put in place such that we’re not dealing with any members of the president’s family when it comes to policy,” he says. “So in my belief and understanding there is no sort of conflicts of interest.”

Author James Surowiecki, whose book The Wisdom of Crowds helped popularize prediction markets, argues the industry’s biggest risks are insider trading, attempts to manipulate outcomes and the possibility that markets can end up influencing the very events they are supposed to predict.

Netflix describes Instadocs: The Prediction Games as an exploration of how prediction markets have evolved from a niche financial product into a mainstream phenomenon spanning politics, sport, entertainment and the weather.

Kalshi, meanwhile, wants the trailer gone before audiences even get that far.

The company is demanding Netflix remove the promotional video, publish a correction acknowledging it falsely implied trading took place in Nevada after the court order, and preserve all documents and communications related to the documentary’s production.

Netflix has not publicly responded to the allegations.

Featured image: Netflix via Tudum

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A bipartisan pair of House lawmakers has introduced legislation that would block federally regulated event contracts tied to sports competitions and casino-style games. The proposal, H.R. 9856, would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prevent those contracts from being listed, cleared, or traded through registered entities if it becomes law.

The measure was introduced on July 22 by Rep. Steven Horsford, Democrat of Nevada, and Rep. Mark Amodei, Republican of Nevada. It has been referred to the House Committee on Agriculture and carries the title “Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act.”

Sports prediction markets face mounting pressure in Congress with bipartisan bill

The bill creates a new provision in the Commodity Exchange Act that would prohibit agreements, contracts, or transactions connected to sporting events, athletic competitions, or casino-style games from being offered through federally regulated exchanges.

Lawmakers spell out what falls within that definition. Casino-style games include slot machines, video poker, blackjack, roulette, craps, bingo, lotteries, traditional casino table games, and simulations of those activities. Sporting events are defined broadly to include live or virtual contests involving physical activity or skill, covering amateur, collegiate, and professional competition where participants’ performances determine an outcome or statistical result.

The legislation also says nothing in the proposal should override state laws regulating or prohibiting sports betting or casino-style gambling. Any restriction would apply only to contracts entered into after the measure takes effect.

The House proposal follows similar efforts in the Senate. Earlier this year, Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis introduced legislation with the same title that would also prohibit Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated exchanges from listing sports prediction contracts. Announcing that bill, Schiff said, “Sports prediction contracts are sports bets — just with a different name.”

Congressional attention has widened even further this month. Sen. Martin Heinrich and 11 other Senate Democrats recently urged committee leaders to strengthen pending digital asset legislation, arguing that prediction markets could undermine tribal gaming protections and state authority if additional safeguards are not added.

In their letter, the senators wrote, “We write with urgency regarding the continued lack of proper regulation over prediction markets and the resulting circumvention of state and Tribal gaming regulatory frameworks.” They warned that broader federal authority without explicit limits could weaken protections established under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act and existing tribal-state gaming compacts.

Supporters of the various proposals argue that sports-related prediction markets function as gambling and should remain under state and tribal oversight rather than federal commodities regulation. Industry representatives, including prediction market operator Kalshi, have countered that regulated markets provide consumers with a legal alternative and that prohibiting them could drive activity to offshore platforms outside U.S. oversight.

Featured image: Canva

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Evolution Malta Holding Limited has agreed to pay £4.75 million ($6.38 million) after a UK Gambling Commission investigation found its online casino games were being supplied to unlicensed gambling websites that could be accessed by consumers in Great Britain. The agreement concludes a licence review that began in December 2024 and closes a regulatory matter that lasted for more than a year while the company worked with the regulator.

The commission launched its investigation after discovering five genuine Evolution games on six websites operated by two businesses without Gambling Commission licences. Those websites attracted substantial traffic from British consumers between December 2023 and November 2024. 

Regulators identified what appeared to be Evolution titles in August 2024, informed the company in December, and Evolution confirmed the games were authentic. It then immediately blocked access for customers in Great Britain and expanded restrictions to other affected websites.

Evolution UK compliance investigation leads to multimillion-pound settlement

Investigators concluded Evolution’s anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing controls did not properly identify the risk that licensed customers were supplying its games to unlicensed operators targeting the British market. The commission said weaknesses in the company’s risk assessment and oversight of third parties meant the issue went undetected despite existing compliance obligations.

The regulator found breaches of licence conditions 12.1.1 and 12.1.2, covering anti-money laundering risk assessments, policies, controls and compliance with money laundering regulations. According to the commission, Evolution’s 2024 risk assessment failed to properly evaluate third-party risks, while its anti-money laundering policies lacked enough detail on due diligence and ongoing monitoring of sub-licensees in higher-risk relationships.

The body also concluded Evolution failed to adequately identify money laundering and terrorist financing risks, maintain effective controls preventing games reaching British consumers through unlicensed operators, and sufficiently meet customer due diligence requirements. It said the failings were serious enough for licence suspension to be considered but decided against that action because Evolution responded quickly once the problems were identified.

John Pierce, Commission Director of Enforcement, said: “This case exposed serious weaknesses in Evolution’s anti-money laundering risk assessment and its oversight of risks within its supply chain.

“The company’s AML risk assessment was outdated and failed to adequately consider the risk of its games being made available through unlicensed operators. As a result, there was a significant gap between the controls on paper and their effectiveness in practice.

“The Commission’s investigation and testing uncovered failings that were serious enough for us to consider licence suspension.

“Evolution responded swiftly and comprehensively once these issues were identified, taking immediate action to strengthen its controls and address our concerns. Our subsequent testing has not identified any further instances of concern.

“However, this case provides an important lesson for the industry. Operators must ensure their risk assessments are current, regularly tested and reflective of real-world risks. They need to understand who they are supplying their games to, how and where those games are being accessed in practice, and maintain effective ongoing controls that give them confidence their products are not supporting illegal gambling.”

Evolution said the two operators involved bypassed existing restrictions and breached its supply terms. The company ended both commercial relationships immediately, introduced stronger ring-fencing controls, and said regulators found no evidence during the 18-month review of unauthorized availability of its games in Britain. 

The settlement includes the £4.75 million payment in lieu of a financial penalty, an independent audit within 12 months, investigation costs and publication of agreed facts. The commission said earlier industry warnings, illegal market activity and financial benefit increased the seriousness of the case, while Evolution’s cooperation and prompt remedial action counted in its favour. At the time the review began, Evolution said the UK accounted for roughly 3% of its revenue.

Featured image: Evolution

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Today in prediction market news, we’re following the biggest developments shaping the industry, including Polymarket’s decision to challenge France’s website block, Kalshi’s launch of its Midterms Hub ahead of the 2026 elections, and fresh debate over prediction markets as former White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney and CME Group CEO Terry Duffy weigh in on the sector. We’ll also cover new questions surrounding a Polymarket-linked crypto wallet, the platform’s expansion of its restricted countries list, and breaking developments across prediction markets, election forecasting, crypto, regulation, and sports event trading throughout the day.

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Tabcorp has paid more than AUD 2.7 million ($1.9 million) in penalties after Australia’s communications regulator found the wagering giant repeatedly broke telemarketing and spam laws by contacting customers who had opted out of marketing, calling numbers on the Do Not Call Register, and ignoring basic telemarketing rules. 

The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) announced the enforcement action on 22 July after investigations covering more than a year of activity involving the company’s VIP customer marketing program.

Tabcorp compliance failures trigger sweeping ACMA regulatory sanctions

ACMA said Tabcorp made 351 telemarketing calls to numbers on the Do Not Call Register without consent, placed 82 calls outside permitted hours, and made nearly 4,000 calls without properly identifying the caller or explaining the purpose of the call. The regulator also found the company sent more than 217,000 marketing emails and SMS messages over 16 days to customers who had already unsubscribed.

The findings combined several investigations completed over the past two years. One inquiry covering February to May 2024 found 283 breaches of the Do Not Call Register Act and another 867 breaches of the Telecommunications Act. A later investigation covering November 2024 to June 2025 uncovered 68 additional Do Not Call Register breaches and 6,438 telemarketing rule breaches involving prohibited calling times and failures to identify callers.

ACMA also examined Tabcorp’s electronic marketing after the company disclosed problems with its messaging systems. Investigators found 217,687 commercial electronic messages were sent to 41,550 electronic addresses between March 31 and April 15, 2025, despite recipients having withdrawn consent. The regulator issued a $1.254 million ($877,700) Spam Act penalty alongside a separate $1,504,800 ($1.1 million) telecommunications infringement notice, taking the combined total above $2.75 million.

The latest action follows an earlier ACMA case in June 2025, when Tabcorp paid more than AUD 4 million after investigators found thousands of unlawful marketing messages were sent to members of its TAB X VIP program without meeting Spam Act requirements. The investigation concluded the company failed to obtain consent in some cases, omitted required sender details, and did not provide working unsubscribe facilities. Regulators also criticized personalized promotions offering incentives including bonus bets and event tickets.

Beyond the financial penalties, Tabcorp has entered an enforceable undertaking requiring an independent review of its governance, systems, policies, staff training and compliance processes for VIP marketing. The consultant must report findings to both the Tabcorp board and ACMA, while the undertaking remains in force for 24 months.

“When people join the Do Not Call Register or unsubscribe from marketing messages, they are making a clear choice,” Yorke said.

“Those choices must be respected – especially given the heightened risks of financial loss and psychological harm from gambling marketing.”

The regulator said the action forms part of a crackdown on unlawful marketing, while Tabcorp has also faced recent regulatory action over illegal in-play betting and failures to prevent underage gambling, adding to mounting compliance scrutiny.

Featured image: ACMA via Facebook

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The NCAA Division III Management Council has approved new sports-betting reinstatement guidelines that reduce penalties in some cases while keeping a firm focus on protecting competition. The change takes effect immediately and applies only to first-time violations that do not involve concerns about the integrity of games or attempts to influence outcomes.

Under the revised policy, eligible student-athletes can receive reduced penalties if they complete an appropriate clinical evaluation or support program. Council members said the update is designed to encourage athletes to seek help when gambling becomes a problem without weakening the NCAA’s long-standing commitment to fair competition.

NCAA responds to changing sports betting challenges 

The decision comes as college sports continue to face growing scrutiny over gambling-related risks. Earlier this year, federal prosecutors unveiled an alleged international point-shaving scheme involving NCAA Division I men’s basketball and professional games in China. Investigators allege the operation relied on bribery, wire fraud and manipulated performances to exploit point-spread betting, highlighting how difficult those markets can be to monitor because of their high betting volume and unpredictable results.

Integrity experts have said suspicious activity is usually identified through unusual betting patterns rather than the size of individual wagers, while cross-border betting remains especially challenging because overseas operators often do not share data with U.S. monitoring systems. The case has also renewed calls for stronger athlete education and greater international cooperation to detect manipulation before it spreads across competitions.

The NCAA has also recently reaffirmed its ban on sports wagering by student-athletes and athletics staff. A proposal that briefly would have allowed betting on professional sports was rescinded after Division I member schools voted to restore the previous rule, leaving the prohibition in place across all three NCAA divisions.

Enforcement efforts have continued as well. In separate cases announced previously, six former men’s basketball student-athletes from New Orleans, Mississippi Valley and Arizona State were ruled permanently ineligible after investigations found betting-related game manipulation or the sharing of inside information with known bettors.

Alongside the reinstatement changes, the Division III council approved sponsorship of legislation to establish a National Collegiate women’s flag football championship, with a potential inaugural event planned for spring 2028 if all NCAA divisions adopt the proposal. Members also supported legislation allowing prospective student-athletes to sign limited agreements with agents before enrolling to help identify future playing opportunities.

The council also approved Division III budgets for the 2027 and 2028 fiscal years and the division’s 2026-27 strategic plan, both of which now head to the Presidents Council for final review in August. Leadership elections, strategic recommendations and continued exploration of an Athletic Trainer Connect program were also approved during the meeting.

Featured image: NCAA

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Polymarket plans to challenge a decision by France’s National Gambling Authority (ANJ) to block access to its website, calling the move unexpected while preparing a legal case in the French courts. Even as it disputes the order, the company says it will keep talking with French officials in hopes of resolving the disagreement.

On Wednesday (July 22), the prediction market operator said it disagreed with the regulator’s action but intends to continue cooperating with authorities throughout the legal process. The company described recent discussions with French officials as constructive and said it believes financial technology innovation can continue in France despite the dispute.

“We are disappointed by the French gaming authority’s (ANJ’s) sudden decision to unilaterally block our website — we intend to challenge this decision through the legal process in France,” the company said.

French regulators ordered internet service providers to block the platform after concluding it was still accessible despite earlier enforcement efforts. The ANJ said it has monitored services offered by ADVENTURE ONE QSS INC. through Polymarket since November 2024 and believes those offerings may amount to unauthorized gambling under French law.

France and Polymarket clash over gambling and financial regulation

Polymarket said it had already stopped French users from trading on the platform beginning in November 2024. According to the company, people in France have since been able to visit only to view information rather than place trades. It said the regulator’s decision to block the entire website was surprising because it also prevents visitors from accessing market information without participating.

The company argued that many people use the site to follow changing probabilities for future events and that prediction markets provide useful insight by reflecting collective expectations about real-world outcomes.

Polymarket also pushed back against comparisons with traditional gambling operators. It said users trade blockchain-based financial instruments linked to verifiable real-world events, with prices determined through peer-to-peer market activity instead of bookmaker-set odds. The company added that it does not take positions in its own markets or profit from individual event outcomes.

The ANJ has taken a different view. Earlier this year, it reiterated that prediction market websites are not authorized in France and warned they share addictive characteristics with regulated gambling products without providing equivalent consumer protections. The regulator also cited concerns over alleged manipulation involving weather-related markets and noted an ongoing cybercrime investigation by French authorities. It further argued that versions of Polymarket available in France and Europe lack adequate Know Your Customer identity checks.

French regulators said the platform attracted more than 578,000 visits during June and pledged to keep monitoring any technical or compliance changes. Polymarket said discussions with French authorities, including the cybercrime unit of the Paris Public Prosecutor’s Office, remain ongoing, but it provided no timetable for its legal challenge or for restoring access in France.

Featured image: Polymarket / Canva

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Authorities have arrested eight people after carrying out coordinated raids at two suspected illegal gambling venues in central Doncaster. The enforcement action involved several agencies working together to investigate businesses believed to be operating without the required licenses.

Investigators carried out the operation under the name Operation Snaresbrook. Officers from the Gambling Commission, South Yorkshire Police, Immigration Enforcement, and City of Doncaster Council’s trading standards and licensing teams all took part. The coordinated effort focused on disrupting suspected unlawful gambling activity and gathering evidence from the two premises.

According to officials, one person was arrested on suspicion of offenses under the Gambling Act 2005. Seven other people were arrested over alleged immigration offenses. During searches at both locations, officers seized nearly £9,000 in cash. They also recovered poker tables, slot machines, and account books that investigators said could provide important evidence.

The Gambling Commission said the latest action is part of its continuing partnership with police forces and local authorities to identify and close illegal gambling operations. The regulator added that it will keep working with enforcement partners across Great Britain to tackle unlawful gambling wherever opportunities arise.

Doncaster raids target suspected crime linked to illegal gambling

Authorities say illegal gambling venues are often connected to broader criminal behavior, including organized crime and money laundering. They argue that coordinated enforcement helps protect legitimate licensed businesses while disrupting wider criminal networks.

Councillor Gemma Cobby, Cabinet Member for Regulation and Enforcement, Planning and Safer Communities at City of Doncaster Council, said: “Illicit gambling dens are often linked to organised crime gangs and can be used to launder money. Their fraudulent practices also undermine trust in legitimate businesses that are licensed and regulated. Illegal gambling has no place in our city. Members of the public can help by making us aware of any concerns they may have about the practices of local businesses. We investigate all reports that come through to us so please don’t hesitate to get in touch.”

Inspector Lisa Bird of Doncaster Central Neighbourhood Policing Team said: “Illegal gambling is a crime and it is vital that all businesses follow the laws put in place.

“Illegal gambling is often linked to other criminality, including organised crime, money laundering and human trafficking, all of which threatens the safety and security of our city centre. We will continue to gather intelligence on those suspected of having links to illegal gambling and will work closely with partners to tackle the issue and target those involved in this criminality.”

Immigration Enforcement Assistant Director for Yorkshire Tim Gallacher said: “This was a successful operation for Immigration Enforcement, with officers showing the utmost professionalism throughout. It shows the close relationship we have with law enforcement and other partners to crack down on this illegal activity. Immigration offenders who are gambling every day by being here illegally can be in no doubt that they will be tracked down and removed at the earliest opportunity.”

Sue Young, Executive Director of Operations at the Gambling Commission, said: “We are constantly looking for opportunities to work with police and other agencies to crack down on all forms of illegal gambling.”

City officials are encouraging anyone who suspects illegal activity at a business to report concerns anonymously through the Citizens Advice reporting system for Trading Standards or by telephone. They said the raids also support Doncaster’s Safer City initiative, a joint council and police partnership focused on cutting crime, tackling antisocial behavior, and improving public safety across the city.

Featured image: City of Doncaster Council

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Tribal gaming operations across the United States delivered another record-breaking year, generating $46.2 billion in gross gaming revenue during fiscal year 2025, according to newly released figures from the National Indian Gaming Commission. The total was up 5.3%, or $2.3 billion, from fiscal year 2024 based on independently audited financial statements covering 545 gaming operations owned by 246 federally recognized tribes across 29 states.

The latest report builds on the previous year’s record. In fiscal year 2024, tribal gaming generated $43.9 billion in gross gaming revenue, a $2.0 billion increase over fiscal year 2023 and overall growth of 4.6%. That earlier report was based on audited statements from 532 gaming operations owned by 243 federally recognized tribes across the same 29 states.

Commission officials said seven of the agency’s eight administrative regions recorded year-over-year revenue gains during fiscal year 2025, showing continued momentum across much of the tribal gaming industry.

“The continued success of Indian gaming further underscores its importance as a means to support self-sufficiency and strong tribal governments,” said NIGC Vice Chair William Kirkland. “The agency is proud to work alongside tribal leaders to uphold a regulatory framework that protects these achievements and ensures the benefits endure for future generations.”

Gross gaming revenue, commonly known as GGR, represents the total amount wagered by players minus winnings paid back to them. The commission relies on that figure as the industry’s primary financial benchmark and compiles its annual report from independently audited financial statements submitted by tribal gaming operations.

Tribal gaming revenue continues to strengthen local economies

The commission said gaming revenue continues to provide a major source of funding for tribal governments. Those dollars help pay for public services, infrastructure, education, healthcare, housing, economic development projects, and cultural preservation efforts while supporting greater financial independence for tribal nations.

“I would like to wish the Indian gaming community a job well done on another strong year. These GGR results reflect the continued commitment of tribal regulators and operators to responsible growth and community benefit,” Avery said.

The 2024 report also highlighted strong regional performance, with the Oklahoma City and Washington, D.C., regions posting double-digit growth over the previous fiscal year.

“This year’s GGR reflects not only the resilience of the tribal gaming industry, but also the dedication of tribal leadership in preserving and growing this important economic driver for their communities,” said NIGC Acting Chairwoman Sharon Avery in the news release.

“These revenue numbers demonstrate the positive impacts of tribal gaming and the essential role it plays supporting tribal sovereignty, job growth, infrastructure, education, and important social, health, and welfare programs in tribal communities – just to name a few,” said Vice Chair Jeannie Hovland.

Created under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act in 1988, the National Indian Gaming Commission works with federally recognized tribes to oversee gaming operations, protect the integrity of the industry, and ensure compliance with federal law. Officials said the latest results again demonstrate the industry’s resilience and its continuing role in strengthening tribal governments and communities.

Featured image: NIGC

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Resorts World New York City has expanded again, reopening the first floor of its commercial casino and adding 1,400 slot machines less than three months after becoming the city’s first full-scale casino with live table games.

The latest expansion lifts the property’s total to 3,900 slot machines, giving the Queens venue more capacity as demand continues to grow. Company executives expect the additional machines to increase gross gaming revenue while generating more tax revenue for New York State.

The new gaming space features Dragon Den, a themed area with 114 Aristocrat games. It includes 48 Dragon Link machines and progressive jackpots, including a top prize of $1 million.

“Since the moment we opened, our slot machines have been incredibly popular with the public, generating more than $230 million in gross gaming revenue in just 11 weeks,” said Robert DeSalvio, President of Genting Americas East. “With these 1,400 new games, we will be able to accommodate more patrons and generate even more in taxes for the state.”

Resorts World strengthens position after historic New York City launch

The first-floor reopening builds on momentum created in April, when Resorts World officially became New York City’s first casino to offer live dealer table games. Blackjack, craps, baccarat and roulette debuted after the property transitioned from a long-running racino that had previously operated only slot-style video lottery terminals.

That launch followed the awarding of new downstate casino licenses, allowing Resorts World to become the first approved project to begin operating as a full casino. Competing developments planned for Queens and the Bronx remain several years from opening, giving the property an early advantage in the market.

The current expansion is also the opening step in a much larger redevelopment. Resorts World plans to invest $5.5 billion in transforming the site into a fully integrated resort by 2030. The completed project is expected to include a 350,000-square-foot gaming floor with 6,000 slot machines, 800 live table games, a 7,000-seat entertainment venue, 2,000 hotel rooms and more than 10 acres of public green space.

Company officials say the casino already produces close to $1 billion in annual gross gaming revenue. Since opening in 2011, the property says it has contributed more than $5 billion to New York’s public education system.

Future commitments also include $2.5 billion for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority and a $2 billion community benefits package.

The Queens property remains New York City’s only casino-hotel, featuring the 400-room Hyatt Regency JFK Airport at Resorts World New York City alongside restaurants, bars, meeting facilities and entertainment venues. The company says it welcomes around 5 million visitors annually as it continues expanding toward its long-term integrated resort vision under operator Genting Group.

Featured image: Resorts World

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