Today in prediction market news, we’re tracking the biggest developments across the industry in real time, including reports that Meta is exploring prediction markets, new legal challenges involving the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Follow our live blog throughout the day for breaking updates, market reactions, and analysis from across the prediction markets, sports event trading, crypto, and regulated forecasting industries.

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A proposed change to the Lumbee Tribe of North Carolina constitution has been defeated by voters, stopping plans that could have opened the door to future tribal gaming projects and a possible casino resort in Robeson County.

The result followed months of discussion inside the tribe about whether gaming should become part of a broader economic development strategy after federal recognition was secured in 2025.

Lumbee Tribal Chairman John L. Lowery announced the outcome in a social media statement after voting concluded on Tuesday (June 23).

“Tonight, a majority of the Lumbee people have spoken, and they have said no to progress and have decided to stay with the status quo or simply staying with the way things are,” Lowery wrote.

Lowery said he would accept the decision and would not bring the matter back during the final 18 months of his term.

“As a federally recognized Indian tribe, we had the opportunity, like so many of our brother and sister tribes, to exercise our sovereignty rights to the fullest and generate billions of dollars to assist our tribal members and lift this entire region,” he said. “This decision by the majority of Lumbee voters is historic and ensures we will not move forward with gaming.”

Lumbee voters reject casino path after months of debate

Earlier this year, the Tribal Council voted to place the constitutional amendment before tribal citizens after obtaining the required two-thirds approval.

Backers of the proposal said gaming revenue could create a long-term source of funding for housing, healthcare, education, infrastructure and other services. During council discussions in April, Lowery argued that the tribe needed additional revenue streams to keep pace with growing demands and spoke of dramatically expanding the tribal budget over time.

Supporters also pointed to a 241-acre property the tribe purchased in Robeson County. Tribal officials had identified the site as a potential location for the proposed Lumbee Dark Water Resort, a large project that could have included gaming, hotels, entertainment attractions, retail development, water features and convention space.

Campaign materials distributed before the election described the resort as a destination development covering more than 200 acres and capable of generating thousands of jobs across southeastern North Carolina.

“For generations, the Lumbee people have fought for recognition, opportunity, and a better future,” the campaign wrote. “The question is no longer whether we deserve opportunity. The question is whether we are willing to seize it.”

Opponents focused much of their criticism on governance and oversight issues. Some argued the amendment would place too much authority in tribal leadership, while others questioned whether enough details had been provided about how future gaming operations would be managed.

The defeat leaves uncertainty around the future use of the Robeson County property. Tribal leaders have said the land could still support other development, including a business and industrial park intended to attract employers and create jobs.

“I will honor the wishes of the majority,” Lowery said. “I will not bring this issue forward again over the remaining 18 months of my tenure.”

Featured image: LumbeesChoose.com / SOSHNY

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The NFL has turned down a request from college quarterback Brendan Sorsby for special eligibility to enter the league through a Supplemental Draft, pointing to both the circumstances of his NCAA ineligibility and the league’s decision not to hold a Supplemental Draft in 2026.

In a June 23 letter sent to Sorsby, NFL Management Council General Counsel Lawrence P. Ferazani Jr. said the league had reviewed a Petition for Special Eligibility dated June 16 and decided not to grant it.

“As announced earlier today, the League has elected not to conduct a Supplemental Draft this year,” Ferazani wrote.

According to the letter, the collective bargaining agreement gives the NFL sole authority to decide whether a Supplemental Draft will take place. The league said no draft had been scheduled for 2026 because no other player had sought entry through that process.

Ferazani also criticized the timing and content of the filing. The NFL said the petition arrived only three business days before the deadline and did not include supporting records or documentation.

“Your Petition—filed three business days before the deadline, without any supporting information or documentation, and only after abandoning your recent litigation efforts to avoid NCAA sanctions—does not provide a basis for the League to alter those plans,” the letter stated.

NFL cites gambling allegations and lack of accountability in Brendan Sorsby draft eligibility case

The NFL said Sorsby’s petition offered only three reasons for seeking Supplemental Draft eligibility: that he had been ruled ineligible by the NCAA, had exhausted options to continue competing in college football, and wanted to pursue an NFL career.

League officials said the filing did not explain the NCAA ruling or provide details about when and why it was issued. Ferazani noted that publicly available information indicated the NCAA determined in May 2026 that Sorsby was permanently ineligible because of gambling-related conduct during his college career.

The NFL acknowledged it did not have the full NCAA investigative record and said Sorsby did not submit those materials with his request. Even so, the league said available reporting suggested repeated violations of rules intended to protect competitive integrity.

Ferazani referenced reports alleging that Sorsby placed wagers involving his own team and teammates and used intermediary accounts to hide betting activity. The letter further noted reports that some conduct may have violated state law.

“Your Petition does not address these matters. Nor does it demonstrate accountability for your conduct or indicate whether, or how, you would adhere to the League’s rules and policies governing the integrity of competition,” the letter said.

The decision comes after a series of legal battles tied to the NCAA ruling. Reports have detailed Sorsby’s efforts to challenge the sanctions in court, including litigation connected to his eligibility after leaving Texas Tech. A judge later issued a ruling that cleared the way for parts of that dispute to move forward, but the fight over his NCAA status ultimately did not produce the outcome he sought.

The NFL encouraged Sorsby to continue preparing for a conventional path into the league.

“As Commissioner Goodell has emphasized, participation in the NFL is a privilege that carries with it significant responsibilities, including accountability,” Ferazani wrote. “By all accounts, you are a talented player with the potential for future success. We encourage you to focus on preparing for possible entry into the NFL through the 2027 NFL Annual Draft.”

Featured image: Cincinnati Bearcats (GoBearcats) via YouTube

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Meta shares traded near $562.20 and fell roughly 5.3% over the past five sessions as investors weighed a report that the company may be developing a standalone prediction market application.

The New York Times reported that Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg has directed employees to build an experimental product that could eventually compete for user attention with prediction-market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

According to the news outlet, Meta has assembled a small internal team to create a smartphone app known internally as Arena. The reported project would function separately from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger. Employees familiar with the effort told the newspaper that the initial version would rely on a points-based system instead of real-money wagering, though the possibility of future betting features has not been excluded.

Meta declined to comment to the newspaper and has not publicly confirmed the reported plans. Because of that, investors are largely treating Arena as an early-stage concept rather than a product nearing launch. Senator Richard Blumenthal, who has already stepped up scrutiny of how deeply betting companies are now woven into professional and college sports, wrote on X: “Meta’s business model is profiting from addiction.”

Meta explores prediction market trend while investors await details

The reported initiative reflects a familiar strategy for Zuckerberg and Meta. When new forms of online engagement begin gaining momentum, the company often looks for ways to participate in those trends through new products or platform features.

Prediction markets have emerged as one of the internet’s fastest-growing categories. Users make forecasts on events that range from elections and sports contests to economic reports and entertainment awards. As activity has increased, companies such as Polymarket and Kalshi have attracted growing interest from both consumers and the technology sector.

Meta could see benefits beyond engagement if it enters the space. Prediction-market operators can generate revenue from transaction fees and related services, offering a business model that differs from Meta’s longstanding dependence on advertising. The search for additional growth opportunities has become increasingly important as the company’s existing platforms already reach billions of users worldwide.

At the same time, regulation remains a significant consideration. The prediction-markets industry has faced closer scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers because participants may be able to profit from information that is not widely available. Concerns involving oversight, consumer protections and market integrity have become more prominent as trading volumes have expanded.

Technology companies have already encountered legal and regulatory questions tied to gambling-related activity. We reported on court cases involving Apple, Google and Meta that examine whether major technology platforms benefit from gambling-app ecosystems. Another report detailed action by the UK Gambling Commission related to illegal gambling advertisements appearing on Meta-owned platforms.

It may help explain the restrained market reaction. Meta has launched standalone applications before, with varying levels of success. The company introduced a prediction-focused service called Forecast in 2020 to crowdsource projections during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the product was discontinued in 2022.

For now, investors remain focused on Meta’s advertising business, artificial-intelligence investments and long-term growth outlook. Until the company confirms Arena or provides additional details, the reported prediction market project is likely to be viewed as an experimental effort rather than a meaningful driver of valuation.

Featured image: Anurag R Dubey via WikiCommons / CC BY-SA 4.0

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has taken Kentucky to federal court, accusing the state of overstepping its authority in a growing dispute over prediction markets and event-based contracts.

A lawsuit filed June 23 in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Kentucky asks a judge to declare that state gambling laws cannot be applied to event contracts traded on exchanges regulated by the CFTC. The agency is also seeking a permanent injunction that would prevent Kentucky officials from enforcing those laws against federally supervised markets.

According to the complaint, Kentucky began state court actions on June 17 against entities tied to Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Coinbase and Webull. State officials contend those companies were offering or facilitating sports gambling without authorization and are seeking penalties, damages, restitution and restrictions on future operations unless the firms obtain Kentucky sports wagering licenses.

CFTC challenges Kentucky state measures

The CFTC argues the contracts at issue are federally regulated swaps traded on designated contract markets and therefore fall under the Commodity Exchange Act rather than state gambling statutes.

“Kentucky is the latest state attempting to shut down federally-regulated event contracts,” said Chairman Michael S. Selig in a press release. 

“Prediction markets provide Kentuckians with valuable information about the likelihood of future events and offer risk management products relied on by Kentucky businesses and individuals. As I’ve consistently pledged, the CFTC is firmly committed to maintaining its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, and today’s lawsuit against Kentucky is yet another example of the Commission protecting its federal interests.”

The agency says Kentucky’s effort extends beyond litigation. It points to House Bill 757, enacted in April after lawmakers overrode Gov. Andy Beshear’s veto. The measure increased Kentucky’s legal betting age from 18 to 21 and introduced new restrictions affecting prediction market operators. The law also imposed a 14.25% excise tax that the CFTC says would make continued operation in the state economically difficult.

The complaint further challenges provisions limiting business relationships between licensed sports betting operators and companies connected to prediction markets. Regulators argue those measures were crafted to discourage federally regulated exchanges from serving Kentucky residents.

Kentucky’s actions arrived after other state-level challenges involving prediction markets. We previously reported that Kentucky lawsuits targeted companies including VGW, Kalshi and Polymarket as regulators intensified scrutiny of emerging event-contract platforms.

The federal agency maintains that Congress established a comprehensive national framework for futures, options and swaps markets and granted the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over those products. Allowing states to impose separate gambling rules, the complaint argues, would create conflicting obligations for exchanges required to provide impartial nationwide access.

The Kentucky case is part of a general campaign by the CFTC. The agency has already launched similar legal actions against Minnesota, Illinois and Rhode Island. ReadWrite also reported on a related lawsuit against Wisconsin.

Featured image: Canva

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Today in gambling news, we’re tracking two pivotal votes in North Carolina – one that paves the way for a revised tax bill that includes sports betting changes, and one that would potentially see the Lumbee Tribe construct a land-based casino in the southeastern section of the state. Beyond that, both New York and Maryland have increased involvement in the horse racing world for two very different reasons, and more is sure to come. Follow our live blog throughout the day for the latest breaking updates, voting results, reactions, analysis, and more from the gambling industry and beyond.

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Today in prediction market news, we’re tracking the biggest developments across the industry in real time, including new scrutiny surrounding Polymarket’s U.S. promotion practices, Minnesota’s legal challenge accusing the Trump administration of rapidly deregulating prediction markets, Underdog’s first CFTC rule filings following its Aristotle Exchange acquisition, Charles Schwab’s entry into the prediction markets business, and fresh federal legislation targeting the sector. Follow our live blog throughout the day for breaking updates, market reactions, and analysis from across the prediction markets, sports event trading, crypto, and regulated forecasting industries.

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New York racing regulators have started a statewide review of fire prevention and suppression systems in horse barns after a devastating blaze at Saratoga Casino Hotel’s harness track claimed the lives of 17 horses.

The fire broke out before dawn on June 16 at the Saratoga Springs facility. According to the Saratoga Springs Fire Department, crews were dispatched to a reported structure fire at about 2:31 a.m. at the harness racing complex on Nelson Avenue.

Authorities said the barn contained 18 horses. Seventeen died in the fire, while one escaped with minor injuries. The structure was destroyed.

The horses were owned by connections associated with two trainers. Robyn Mangiardi lost 11 horses, and Timothy Benson lost six.

Fire safety review underway across New York after Saratoga Casino Hotel blaze

In response to the loss, the New York State Gaming Commission said it is conducting an immediate examination of fire safety practices and equipment at barns located at all 11 racetracks across the state.

“The fire at Saratoga was a terrible tragedy, and we offer our deepest condolences to the connections of the horses that were lost. We are conducting an immediate, top-to-bottom review of fire prevention methods currently in place at barns and determining what more can be done to prevent such a tragedy from reoccurring,” said Gaming Commission Chairman Brian O’Dwyer.

Firefighters arriving at the scene found the barn heavily engulfed in flames. Officials said conditions were already advanced, forcing crews to fight the fire defensively while focusing on protecting nearby structures from ignition. Mutual aid agencies were called in to assist with water supply operations, scene support and emergency coverage elsewhere in the city.

Emergency responders, law enforcement officers, track employees and others worked to move animals from nearby barns when conditions permitted. Even with those efforts, fatalities occurred inside the affected structure.

Officials said the fire remained confined to a single barn and did not spread to neighboring buildings. Security personnel from Saratoga Casino Hotel and Saratoga Race Course helped evacuate horses from surrounding areas. Roughly 350 horses are normally housed in the backstretch section of the property.

No civilian injuries were reported. Fire officials also said there were no reported firefighter injuries at the time information was released.

“The loss suffered today is heartbreaking for our racing community,” said Sam Gerrity, Chief Executive Officer of Saratoga Casino Hotel. “Our thoughts remain with Robyn, Tim, their teams, the horse owners, and everyone affected by this tragedy. We are deeply grateful to the security personnel, first responders, and racing staff whose swift actions helped protect the horses and people in the surrounding barns.”

Industry leaders also expressed sympathy as investigators continued their work.

“This is a sobering day in our industry, a horseperson’s worst nightmare. We express our deep condolences to all impacted and thank all emergency responders and track workers for their quick response,” said Henry Westbrook Jr., President of the Saratoga Harness Horsepersons Association.

Supervisor Sarah Burger, counsel for the association, added: “This tragic loss is a reminder this can happen anywhere. My heartfelt condolences go out to all impacted. Thank you to all first responders local and state for your prompt response. We must work to learn the cause and do everything in our power to ensure this does not happen again.”

A commission panel led by Martin Mack, with Commissioners Peter Moschetti and Jerry Skurnik, will review the Saratoga incident and assess barn fire-prevention infrastructure statewide. The cause remains under investigation, and Saratoga Casino Hotel said grief counseling and a memorial service are being planned for those affected.

Featured image: Saratoga Casino via Facebook

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Australia’s media regulator has found that SBS broke gambling advertising rules when it carried a Crown Resorts commercial during live coverage of the 2025 Tour de France.

The decision, completed on March 31, 2026, focused on a 30-second Crown Sydney advertisement shown during the cycling broadcast. ACMA determined the commercial amounted to gambling advertising and was screened during a period when such promotions were not permitted.

A Crown Sydney advertisement that largely showcased restaurants, accommodation and entertainment experiences appeared to air during the time. The commercial ended, however, with the description: “Sydney’s premier casino resort.” Viewers in the Sydney market saw the advertisement during SBS coverage of the Tour de France in July 2025.

Tour de France Crown Sydney ad crossed line under live sport gambling rules

ACMA said the Tour de France met the definition of a Long Form Live Sporting Event under the applicable industry framework. Under those restrictions, gambling advertisements may only appear before play, during scheduled or unscheduled breaks, or after play between 8.30pm and 5am.

According to the regulator, the Crown advertisement containing the “casino resort” wording could not rely on an exemption available to venues that offer gambling alongside dining and entertainment. ACMA concluded the commercial drew attention to gambling in a way that directly promoted its availability.

“The mention of ‘casino’ immediately focuses the mind of the viewer on the casino (gambling) activities provided by Crown,” the ACMA said in its report.

The authority said the wording encouraged viewers to regard gambling as another activity offered at the venue. Because of that, it fell outside the exemption.

ACMA contrasted the Sydney version with two other Crown advertisements broadcast during the event. One advertisement used in other markets did not include the “casino resort” phrase, while another consisted of sponsorship references connected to SBS’s Tour de France companion program, Plat du Tour. Those advertisements were found to comply with the rules.

SBS pushed back strongly during the investigation. In a submission dated January 30, 2026, the broadcaster argued the commercial was “unambiguously focused on culinary, hospitality and accommodation experiences” and contained “no gambling imagery, language or behavioural prompts”.

“The visuals consist exclusively of dining experiences, food preparation, accommodation and entertainment amenities at Crown,” SBS told the regulator, adding that there were no depictions of gaming floors, betting interfaces, table games or gambling-related language.

The broadcaster also maintained that “casino resort” was simply an accurate description of a mixed-use venue. SBS further argued that responsible gambling messaging and assumptions about public perceptions of the Crown brand should not determine whether an advertisement qualified for the exemption.

ACMA rejected those arguments. It said a reasonable viewer would associate Crown with gambling and that describing the venue as a “casino resort” pointed to gambling services. The regulator added that alternative wording, such as “hotel resort”, could have been used if the intention was to promote accommodation and entertainment alone.

The finding concluded that SBS breached clause 3.4 of Appendix 3 of the Commercial Television Industry Code of Practice. The investigation began after ACMA monitoring of Tour de France coverage identified the advertisement.

Featured image: fanglan via WikiCommons / CC BY 2.0 / Canva

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Minnesota is telling a federal court that prediction markets carry risks ranging from gambling addiction to insider trading as officials work to preserve a new state law facing challenges from Kalshi, Polymarket and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

In a memorandum filed June 18, state attorneys asked the U.S. District Court for the District of Minnesota to reject requests for preliminary injunctions that would block the law before its August 1 effective date. The state maintains that the measure is a valid exercise of Minnesota’s authority to safeguard residents and protect the public interest.

“States have inherent constitutional authority to enact laws that protect the public’s health, safety, morals, and general welfare,” the state wrote in its filing.

Minnesota said lawmakers responded to concerns about the growth of prediction-market wagering and the increasing popularity of betting platforms accessible through mobile apps. The filing says legislators acted amid worries about what the state described as “surging prediction market gambling.”

Minnesota says federal law against prediction market platforms does not override gambling authority 

The latest court filing is another step in a legal fight that has drawn national attention. Earlier this year, Minnesota lawmakers advanced legislation targeting prediction market operators. The measure ultimately became part of a public safety package and would make Minnesota the first state to impose felony penalties on companies that operate, facilitate or advertise certain prediction market contracts.

Supporters of the law argued that prediction markets were functioning outside traditional gambling protections and creating opportunities for market manipulation, insider trading and excessive wagering. Companies opposing the measure have consistently argued that the contracts are financial products regulated under federal law rather than gambling activity.

The conflict intensified after Kalshi sued the state, claiming the Commodity Exchange Act preempts Minnesota’s law because Kalshi operates as a federally regulated exchange overseen by the CFTC. The CFTC later launched its own challenge, and Polymarket operator QCX LLC filed a separate case. It has since been consolidated in federal court in Minnesota.

According to the state’s memorandum, contracts tied to sports, elections, wars, legal proceedings, public emergencies and similar future events do not fall within an area of exclusive federal control. Minnesota argues that Congress never intended federal commodities laws to eliminate the longstanding authority states have exercised over gambling-related activities.

The filing also draws attention to policy concerns tied to the industry’s proliferation. Drawing on academic studies and news reports, Minnesota argues that addiction experts have warned about gambling risks, particularly among younger men, while other critics have raised concerns about insider information and self-dealing.

State attorneys referenced reports involving a servicemember allegedly placing prediction-market wagers using classified information and cited reporting that Kalshi suspended political candidates who bet on their own races. Minnesota says such examples show how these markets could create improper financial incentives and weaken trust in public institutions.

The memorandum adds that numerous countries have restricted or banned prediction markets and points to enforcement actions taken by several U.S. states. Minnesota also cited a recent filing from former CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler, including his statement: “Congress did not displace historical state police powers over sports betting through Dodd-Frank and give it to a small federal regulatory agency with no expertise in gaming regulation.”

The court has not yet ruled on the injunction requests.

Featured image: Canva

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Today in prediction market news, we’re tracking the biggest developments across the industry in real time, including reports of Kalshi’s early IPO discussions, disputes over alleged fake stories and misinformation, new legislation that could reshape the sector, and other major stories impacting prediction markets, sports event trading, and regulated forecasting platforms. Follow our live blog throughout the day for breaking updates, market reactions, and analysis from across the prediction markets, crypto, and iGaming sectors.

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Kalshi is pushing back against a report that said the prediction-market platform was investigating U.S. Sen. Jim Banks and Indiana State Rep. Andrew Ireland over alleged insider trading connected to Indiana’s Secretary of State race.

Robert Denault, the company’s head of enforcement and legal counsel, said that claim is wrong and stated that Kalshi has not found evidence of suspicious activity in the market cited by the report.

“This is false. Kalshi is not investigating Sen. Banks or State Rep. Ireland. We have no evidence of suspicious trading activity in this market,” Denault wrote in a public statement.

The dispute began after a social media post from the Hoosier Enquirer said Kalshi had confirmed an investigation involving Banks and Ireland. Denault said the publication had submitted a whistleblower tip containing the allegations and received a standard acknowledgment that the information would be reviewed.

According to Denault, that routine response was later presented as proof that a formal investigation existed.

“The Hoosier Enquirer submitted a whistleblower tip to Kalshi making the claims below. We confirmed receipt and promised to look into it, as we do with all tips. They then manufactured a fake story claiming we confirmed an investigation,” Denault wrote.

He added: “This reporting is deliberately dishonest and misleading. We have sent them a cease and desist.”

After Denault’s statement, the Hoosier Enquirer posted what it said was Kalshi’s response to the whistleblower submission. In the screenshot, a message from a Kalshi compliance account states that the company had received the report and “will investigate accordingly.” The message also says Kalshi could not share updates or details on ongoing investigations and directed the publication to the company’s public disciplinary notices.

The Hoosier Enquirer cited the email as evidence that Kalshi initially indicated it would investigate the allegations, while critics of the publication argued the response appeared to be a standard acknowledgment sent when tips are received. Former Kalshi spokesperson Jacki McGavick responded publicly, writing, “That’s our standard reply to every tip. This is idiotic.”

Kalshi says safeguards and enforcement are already in place after denying Indiana probe

The disagreement comes as Kalshi has been publicly pointing to its enforcement program and insider-trading controls.

Earlier this year, the company announced new safeguards intended to automatically block political candidates from trading on markets tied to their own campaigns. Kalshi also said athletes, officials, referees, and other sports participants would be prevented from trading on markets connected to competitions in which they are involved.

The company said the changes were developed in response to growing regulatory attention and concerns about conflicts of interest in prediction markets. Kalshi has also added whistleblower reporting tools and increased monitoring of trading activity.

In February, both Kalshi and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission highlighted insider-trading enforcement actions involving a political candidate and a media insider. Kalshi said it had opened roughly 200 investigations during the previous year, with more than a dozen resulting in formal enforcement actions.

The company later identified three political candidates who were penalized for trading on markets connected to their own elections: Minnesota state senator Matt Klein, Virginia Senate candidate Mark Moran, and Texas congressional candidate Ezekiel Enriquez. Each received a five-year suspension, while financial penalties varied by case.

Those actions were tied to Kalshi Rule 5.17(z), which bars traders from participating in markets where they can influence outcomes.

Despite those enforcement efforts, Denault said the allegations involving Banks and Ireland have not resulted in a formal investigation. His statement did not address the underlying claims contained in the tip beyond saying that Kalshi has no evidence of suspicious trading and has not opened a case involving either official.

Featured image: Kalshi / Canva

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A new House proposal would block members of Congress and their immediate families from taking part in certain prediction market trades linked to government decisions, political developments, and information obtained through public service.

House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on June 18. The measure seeks to update federal ethics rules by preventing lawmakers, spouses, and dependent children from earning money through prediction market positions connected to events they may learn about through congressional work.

Steil said the goal is to eliminate concerns that elected officials could benefit from privileged information.

“The American people deserve to know their Member of Congress is not profiting off insider information. The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act ensures that cannot happen,” said Chairman Steil. “This legislation is critical to restoring the public’s trust in their elected officials. Lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome.”

Prediction market trades proposal targets concerns over insider information and political wagering

According to the bill, a “covered individual” would include any member of Congress, a lawmaker’s spouse, or a dependent child. The legislation would prohibit those individuals from entering into or offering to enter into any agreement, contract, or transaction that depends on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or extent of the occurrence of a specific government policy, a government action, a political outcome, or any other event that comes to the attention of the covered individual as a result of congressional service. 

It would apply regardless of whether the event is directly connected to the official congressional duties of the member involved.

The House Administration Committee pointed to growing scrutiny surrounding prediction markets and the possibility that participants with access to nonpublic information could gain an advantage. Committee officials also referenced reports involving candidates who allegedly wagered on their own elections and noted that current federal law does not specifically ban lawmakers from these markets.

The proposal arrives as the prediction market industry faces broader questions about insider activity. Recent reports have showcased efforts by platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket to strengthen policies aimed at preventing insider trading and misuse of confidential information. It has fueled debate over whether additional safeguards are needed as prediction markets become more and more widespread.

Congress has also seen related legislative efforts. Earlier proposals, including the BETS Off Act, sought to limit prediction market participation by government officials and address concerns about conflicts of interest involving public servants.

If Steil’s bill becomes law, congressional ethics offices would oversee compliance and provide guidance on terms not clearly defined in the statute.

Violations would trigger financial consequences. Anyone found in breach of the restrictions would owe either $2,000 or 10% of the value of the prohibited transaction, whichever is greater. Any profits earned from the activity while covered by the law would also have to be surrendered.

The measure further states that official office accounts and campaign funds could not be used to pay those penalties. Money collected through enforcement would be directed to the U.S. Treasury’s general fund.

Former lawmakers would not escape enforcement. Ethics officials could refer unpaid penalties to the Department of Justice if a member leaves office before satisfying the requirement.

The bill would take effect 180 days after enactment and must pass both chambers of Congress before reaching the president’s desk.

Featured image: Defense Visual Information Distribution Service

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Former Iona University basketball player Adam Njie Jr. has been permanently ruled ineligible for NCAA competition after an investigation found he shared information with bettors before two games during the 2024-25 season and falsely indicated he would take part in point-shaving schemes.

The NCAA Division I Committee on Infractions approved a negotiated resolution that classified the conduct as a Level I violation, the most serious category under NCAA rules. The case centered on games against Rice and Sacred Heart in December 2024.

Investigators traced the matter to a wider sports wagering probe. NCAA enforcement staff interviewed a source in 2025 while examining betting activity connected to college basketball. The review found that a bettor placed three wagers totaling $15,500 on Rice to cover the first-half spread against Iona on Dec. 1, 2024.

Adam Njie communications with bettors before Rice and Sacred Heart NCAA matchup

According to the resolution, Njie knew a bettor through a friend. They were described as someone known for paying student-athletes to influence games.

Before the Rice matchup, Njie admitted telling the bettor he would throw the first half. He later told investigators he never actually carried out that plan. After the game, the bettor allegedly threatened him over gambling losses tied to his performance.

The resolution says Njie then told the bettor he would throw the first half of Iona’s Dec. 6 game against Sacred Heart to recover those losses. He again maintained that he never intentionally tried to lose the first half.

Digital evidence reviewed by investigators showed that Njie communicated with the bettor before both games. Records also supported claims that threats were made before the Sacred Heart contest.

Rather than determining whether game outcomes were manipulated, the NCAA focused on the information Njie provided. The resolution states that on December 1 and December 6, 2024, Njie violated NCAA standards by “knowingly provid[ing] information, to individuals involved in sports betting activities before two men’s basketball games to financially benefit others.”

The decision arrives as college basketball continues to face scrutiny over gambling-related misconduct. Federal authorities announced charges against 26 people in January 2026 in an alleged point-shaving and game-fixing scheme that affected NCAA Division I men’s basketball and games in China. Several current and former players were named in that case.

The NCAA has also permanently barred six former student-athletes from New Orleans, Mississippi Valley State and Arizona State after separate investigations found betting-related manipulation or the sharing of insider information. In another ongoing matter, Nevada regulators have linked unusual wagering activity involving Fresno State basketball to a criminal investigation that has already resulted in one arrest.

Throughout the NCAA process, Njie denied manipulating games but cooperated with multiple interviews. The Committee on Infractions approved the negotiated resolution on June 18, 2026, and noted that the outcome carries no precedential value under NCAA rules.

Featured image: NCAA / Dayton Flyers via YouTube

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Today in prediction market news, we’re tracking the biggest developments across the industry in real time, from fresh lawsuits and insider trading allegations to regulatory battles, market-moving legislation, and other major stories shaping prediction markets, sports event trading, and regulated forecasting platforms. Follow our live blog throughout the day for breaking updates, market reactions, and analysis from across the prediction markets, crypto, and iGaming sectors.

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California authorities have filed felony grand theft and forgery charges against former United Firefighters of Los Angeles City Secretary Adam Walker, accusing him of taking nearly $83,000 from a firefighters’ nonprofit foundation and spending the money on personal costs, including online gambling.

Walker also served as chairman of the United Firefighters of Los Angeles City Foundation. Investigators say he moved foundation money into accounts under his control, triggering a joint investigation involving the California Department of Justice and the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office.

According to authorities, investigators found evidence that $82,914.24 was diverted from the foundation between December 2022 and January 2024. The investigation alleges Walker opened a foundation bank account naming himself as the only authorized signer and then transferred nonprofit funds into personal accounts through multiple internal bank transactions.

Investigators further claim he attempted to conceal the missing money during audits. Authorities say he produced records that falsely described the transfers as reimbursements for credit card expenses and used online tools to create forged receipts. The funds were allegedly spent on personal expenses, including online gambling.

Investigation examines nonprofit finances of ex-LA firefighters foundation leader, accused of theft and gambling claims

The case was developed by the California Department of Justice’s Special Investigations Team with support from investigators in the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office. The unit handles public corruption, fraud, money laundering and other complex criminal investigations.

“The California Department of Justice will vigorously prosecute corruption at every turn and hold accountable those who break the law and the trust placed in them by the public,” Bonta said. “I am thankful for the hard work of our DOJ team and our partners at LADA over the course of this investigation.”

State officials said prosecutors from both agencies are jointly handling the case. The criminal complaint contains allegations only, and Walker remains presumed innocent unless the charges are proven beyond a reasonable doubt.

The accusations arrive amid several other recent cases in which authorities alleged gambling played a role in broader fraud schemes.

In one federal case, Burbank laboratory owner Armen Muradyan was sentenced to 51 months in prison after pleading guilty to conspiracy to commit health care fraud, wire fraud and tax evasion. Prosecutors said he concealed his control of a blood-testing laboratory, obtained millions in Medicare reimbursements and spent proceeds on personal expenses that included gambling. The court ordered more than $15 million in restitution.

Federal prosecutors have also charged Sacramento resident Keinyatey Deboros Chambers with 10 counts of wire fraud. Investigators allege he raised more than $500,000 through a fake cannabis investment operation, targeting people he met at casinos, bars and restaurants. Authorities contend the money was used for personal spending and casino gambling rather than legitimate investments.

Another case resulted in a 30-month prison sentence for Lanette Bashore, who admitted to mail fraud after running a long-term scheme that persuaded victims to provide money based on promises of access to a supposed fortune. Prosecutors said stolen funds supported her lifestyle and gambling activities.

Court proceedings in Walker’s case are expected to continue in Los Angeles County.

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Pennsylvania gambling regulators have stripped gambling privileges from 18 people, including four adults accused of leaving children unattended at casino properties while they gambled.

The action was approved by the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board on Wednesday (June 17) and places those individuals on one of the state’s Involuntary Exclusion Lists. Anyone added to those lists is barred from gambling at Pennsylvania casinos, state-regulated online betting platforms, and Video Gaming Terminal locations.

Among the cases cited by the board, one woman left two children, ages 8 and 13, in a vehicle at Valley Forge Casino Resort for 52 minutes while participating in multiple forms of gambling. Another woman left three children, ages 8, 9 and 13, alone in a hotel room at Mount Airy Casino Resort for 1 hour and 48 minutes while she played table games.

A third case involved a woman who left a 10-year-old child in a vehicle at Live! Casino Philadelphia for more than three hours while gambling on slot machines. In the fourth incident, a man left a 12-year-old in a vehicle at Hollywood Casino York for 30 minutes while he played slot machines.

Parents accused of child neglect after children left unattended at Pennsylvania casinos

Board officials said the penalties are intended to reinforce rules that prohibit adults from leaving minors unattended in parking lots, garages, hotels, or other areas of casino properties. Regulators warned that such situations can expose children to unnecessary risks and unsafe conditions.

The board also highlighted its “Don’t Gamble with Kids” campaign, which was created to support casino efforts to reduce incidents involving unattended minors.

Beyond the four child-related cases, regulators placed 14 additional people on the Involuntary Casino Exclusion List for separate violations. The matters were brought before the board by its Offices of Chief Counsel and Enforcement Counsel.

The latest decision follows a series of recent enforcement actions. In February, the board announced that 22 people had been added to exclusion lists, including five adults accused of leaving children unattended while gambling and five individuals accused of fraud involving online gaming or sports wagering accounts.

The board has also taken action against casino operators. Earlier this year, regulators approved $112,500 in fines against three gaming companies. Rivers Casino Pittsburgh received a $70,000 penalty after self-excluded patrons were able to access gaming areas and place bets. Live! Casino Pittsburgh was fined $10,000 after an underage person gained access to the gaming floor.

In a separate enforcement case in 2025, Valley Forge Casino Resort was fined $30,000 after a 13-year-old reportedly spent more than six hours gambling on slot machines.

With the newest additions, the total number of people across Pennsylvania’s various Involuntary Exclusion Lists now stands at 1,481. The board’s next public meeting is scheduled for July 22, 2026, in Harrisburg.

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Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman has opened a new front in the fight over online wagering, filing lawsuits against prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket as well as sweepstakes casino company VGW. 

The cases, submitted June 17 in Franklin Circuit Court, accuse the businesses of offering gambling products inside Kentucky without following the state’s licensing and regulatory requirements.

The legal actions represent one of the strongest state-level challenges yet against two fast-growing corners of the online gaming world. They also deepen a national argument over who has authority to regulate sports-related event contracts: federal commodities regulators or individual states.

All three companies have indicated they plan to contest the allegations.

VGW told ReadWrite it “respectfully reject[s] the Kentucky Attorney General’s claims” and plans to “vigorously defend this lawsuit.” The company said it has lawfully operated in the United States for more than a decade, providing what it describes as online “Social Plus” games to millions of Americans. 

The company added that its offerings are delivered with “robust consumer protections” and stressed that VGW values that include putting players first and ensuring its products are offered safely and responsibly.

Kalshi responded by portraying the lawsuit as a challenge to federally supervised financial markets rather than a consumer-protection measure. Company spokesperson Jacki McGavick said restrictions on federally regulated exchanges would ultimately hurt Kentucky residents.

“The people who get hurt by this tax are Kentuckians,” McGavick said. “Taxing federally regulated markets doesn’t make anyone safer, it just pushes people toward illegal platforms with no oversight and no protections.”

McGavick also reiterated Kalshi’s core legal position, arguing that federal regulators—not states—have jurisdiction over the company’s event contracts.

“Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange — the CFTC is our regulator, not the states,” she said. “Courts have already recognized this, and we’re confident they will here too.”

Polymarket also signaled that it intends to challenge the state’s claims. A spokesperson told ReadWrite that Kentucky’s lawsuit “runs counter to the CFTC’s established framework for regulating prediction markets” and said the company looks forward to addressing the claims through the courts.

Kentucky argues Kalshi and Polymarket resemble sportsbooks

Coleman’s office sees the issue very differently.

State attorneys argue that Kalshi and Polymarket are effectively running sportsbooks without obtaining the licenses required under Kentucky law. Although the companies describe their products as event contracts, the lawsuits contend that customers are still wagering on sports outcomes in a manner that closely mirrors traditional betting.

According to the complaints, Kentucky residents can access the products through websites and mobile apps and stake money on sporting results. State lawyers argue the contracts “fall squarely within the definition of ‘sports wagering’ under Kentucky law … and any reasonable definition of gambling.” Similar language appears in both cases.

Coleman dismissed the distinction between prediction contracts and sports betting, characterizing the argument as a legal workaround.

“As one of our state legislative leaders said it best,” Coleman said, “‘If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck…'”

That comparison appears throughout Kentucky’s reasoning. The lawsuits reference remarks from State Representative Michael Meredith, who stated the same sentiment.

Kentucky says the platforms offer many of the same options commonly found at licensed sportsbooks, including wagers tied to game winners, point spreads, player statistics, totals, parlays, and proposition bets.

The state further argues that these businesses operate outside the regulatory structure created after Kentucky legalized sports betting in 2023. Oversight was assigned to the Kentucky Horse Racing and Gaming Commission, which licenses operators and enforces standards covering audits, responsible gaming, and consumer protections. Under state law, only approved operators may provide sports wagering services.

In a public statement, the Attorney General’s office alleged that sports-related contracts now account for a large share of Kalshi’s activity. The office claimed sports betting represented roughly 70% of the platform’s trading volume during a selected period in 2025 and nearly 89% of approximately $23 billion in contract volume last year.

Kentucky also alleges that partnerships involving Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull broadened access to what it considers unlicensed sports gambling products. All three companies are named as defendants in the Kalshi case.

Lawmakers and regulators have been escalating pressure

These lawsuits did not appear out of nowhere.

For months, Kentucky officials have been laying the groundwork for a confrontation with sports-focused prediction markets. Earlier this year, lawmakers approved House Bill 904, a sweeping measure that raises the state’s sports betting age from 18 to 21, limits certain college proposition wagers, and creates a framework specifically addressing prediction market operators.

The legislation imposes a 14.25% excise tax on prediction market transaction fees and bars licensed Kentucky sportsbooks from partnering with Kalshi or Polymarket beginning July 15, 2026.

Many state policymakers have expressed concern that prediction markets increasingly function like sportsbooks while remaining outside Kentucky’s licensing system. Coleman has repeatedly voiced that view and recently joined a bipartisan coalition of attorneys general urging federal regulators not to treat sports event contracts as matters exclusively governed by federal commodities law.

It appears to have foreshadowed the lawsuits now moving through Kentucky courts.

The wider federal-state fight continues

The Kentucky cases arrive as similar disputes gain momentum across the country.

Only weeks before filing suit, Kentucky joined other attorneys general in comments submitted to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The coalition argued that sports event contracts and traditional sports bets are essentially the same product.

“Traditional sports bets and sports-related event contracts offered on designated contract markets have no meaningful differences,” the coalition wrote. The letter argued that “any distinction between sportsbook bets and prediction-market bets is illusory” because users can wager on the same outcomes, including game winners, point spreads, totals, and player props.

The coalition pointed directly to Kalshi’s offerings and noted advertisements promoting what the company described as “legal sports betting in all 50 states.”

Kalshi continues to maintain the opposite position. The company argues that its exchange operates under federal oversight through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and therefore should not be subject to state sports-betting licensing systems.

Kentucky’s action also follows a separate proposed class-action lawsuit filed by residents seeking to recover alleged losses from Kalshi under state gambling recovery laws. Together, those cases may help determine whether prediction markets are viewed by courts as financial exchanges or as sports betting under a different structure.

The lawsuit against VGW focuses on another growing sector of online gaming. Kentucky alleges that Chumba Casino, LuckyLand Slots, LuckyLand Casino, and Global Poker rely on a dual-currency system that mirrors conventional casino gambling.

According to the complaint, players buy virtual Gold Coins and receive Sweeps Coins that can later be redeemed for cash, cryptocurrency, or gift cards. The state argues that these coins function like casino chips because they have redeemable value and can be wagered on games of chance.

The filing states, “Sweeps Coins are therefore a direct equivalent of traditional casino chips; they have a cash value, can be gambled like cash, and can be cashed out by gamblers for the designated cash value or digital equivalent.”

Kentucky also claims the products are intentionally designed to resemble familiar casino experiences. The lawsuit alleges the platforms “offer games that not only function like traditional casino games but are designed to look and feel like them.”

Coleman framed the case as part of a wider effort to prevent gambling businesses from avoiding state law through new technology.

“This company may use new technology and a new scheme to hide, but the reality is the same,” he said. “Our Office has a duty to stop illegal gambling in Kentucky regardless of how it’s packaged.”

Featured image: VGW / Kalshi / Polymarket

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Pennsylvania’s highest court has handed down what could prove to be the most significant gambling decision in the Commonwealth since casino gaming was legalized. In a June 15, 2026, opinion, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that so-called skill-game machines are subject to both the Pennsylvania Gaming Act and the Crimes Code, overturning years of lower-court decisions that had allowed the devices to operate in a legal gray area.

How skill games gained a foothold across Pennsylvania

For more than a decade, skill games spread across Pennsylvania in convenience stores, bars, restaurants, clubs, gas stations and dedicated gaming parlors. The Supreme Court noted that the machines “have been held to fall into a legal gray area outside of the reach of both the Gaming Act and the Crimes Code,” a situation that allowed thousands of devices to flourish throughout the state without the oversight applied to casino gambling.

The industry has long argued its machines are games of skill rather than gambling devices.

Speaking on a special episode of Behind the Bets in PA, Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board Chief Counsel Steve Cook explained that the growth of skill games was closely tied to Pennsylvania’s long-established legal test for determining gambling.

“Pennsylvania has through the course of a series of court decisions what’s called the predominant factor test,” Cook said. “If skill predominates, it’s 51% or more skill over chance, then it would not be gambling under historical Pennsylvania case law.”

Cook said Pennsylvania’s approach differed from states where any element of chance can make a game illegal gambling.

According to him, “it’s that predominant factor test by which skill games entered the market” and eventually expanded across the Commonwealth.

The Supreme Court’s reasoning and the Follow Me dispute

The Supreme Court traced that legal history back to the 1983 case Commonwealth v. Two Electronic Poker Game Machines, which held that courts must examine whether skill or chance predominates when determining if gambling exists. For years, that analysis formed the foundation of arguments supporting the legality of skill-game machines.

The latest legal battle included Pace-O-Matic’s “Follow Me” feature, a memory challenge built into Pennsylvania Skill machines. The court explained that after a losing spin, players can attempt a Simon-style memory game requiring them to repeat increasingly complex sequences. Successfully completing the challenge allows a player to recover 105% of the original wager.

Supporters of the machines argued that because a skilled player could theoretically recover every loss through the feature, chance was not the dominant factor. Trial courts accepted that reasoning, finding that “a patient and skillful player could win at least 105% of the amount played on each and every play by utilizing the Follow Me feature.”

State lawyers took a far different view. According to the Supreme Court opinion, the Commonwealth argued that “Follow Me” was “an obvious fig leaf, included to cloak the game’s primary purpose as a gambling device,” adding that “‘Follow Me’ isn’t there for the players; it’s there for the lawyers.”

Ultimately, the Supreme Court agreed that the legal landscape changed when lawmakers amended the Gaming Act in 2017.

Act 42 of 2017 introduced statutory definitions for both “skill slot machines” and “hybrid slot machines.” Under those definitions, a skill slot machine is a device where skill predominates over chance, while a hybrid slot machine incorporates both elements.

The court concluded that those definitions effectively replaced the old predominant-factor inquiry for slot-machine regulation.

As Justice David Wecht wrote, “it is irrelevant whether the outcome of a game is determined by skill, chance, or any combination thereof.” The opinion further stated that the statutory definitions “plainly eliminate the predominant factor test for any device that otherwise constitutes a ‘slot machine.’”

Cook echoed that interpretation during the podcast discussion.

“The court also said… because the General Assembly did put skill games into the definition of slot machine under the Gaming Act… it took away at least with respect to slot machines this predominant factor test,” he said.

“Now effective yesterday any machine that has any element of chance, even if it’s predominantly skill, is a slot machine regulated by the Gaming Control Board.”

One of the court’s most notable observations focused on the practical inconsistency created by earlier rulings.

Cook summarized the issue this way: “If these games were in a casino, they would be regulated by us. And if they are outside the casino in a gas station down the street, they’re not regulated by us and nobody can do anything about them. That just doesn’t make sense.”

The Supreme Court reached a similar conclusion, criticizing a framework that allowed devices “identical to slot machines in appearance, operation, and function” to operate outside casino regulation while remaining largely beyond the reach of enforcement agencies.

Despite ruling against the industry, the court stopped short of ordering an immediate shutdown. Recognizing that businesses, clubs and organizations had relied on previous court decisions, the justices imposed a 120-day stay.

During that period, “no law enforcement agency is to take adverse action against owners or operators of ‘skill game’ devices in reliance upon this opinion.”

Cook said the court was attempting to avoid sudden economic disruption.

“The 120 days was a recognition by the Supreme Court that some businesses and private clubs and organizations rely on the cash flow that they get from skill games,” he explained.

The pause could prove important because lawmakers are already considering legislation that would create a formal regulatory structure for the industry.

What Senate Bill 756 and future legislation could mean

Senate Bill 756 proposes regulation by the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board, a 35% tax on skill-game revenue, a seven-machine limit per location and a minimum player age of 21. The legislation would also establish a Skill Gaming Fund, with proceeds divided between the state’s General Fund and programs addressing problem gambling.

Supporters of regulation argue that the industry has operated for years without meaningful oversight. In November, Senator Dan Laughlin wrote on X: “Unregulated skill games are undercutting our gaming industry and threatening local jobs, including right here at Presque Isle Downs.”

“I’m committed to finding a fair, enforceable solution that levels the playing field.”

Pace-O-Matic has pushed for regulation as well, though it supports a different proposal. Mike Barley, the company’s Chief of Public Affairs, said: “We look forward to working with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and lawmakers to pass common sense regulation and fair taxation of the legal skill game industry. We support Senate Bill 626, sponsored by Sen. Gene Yaw, which does just that.”

Barley argued that alternative proposals could harm businesses and nonprofit groups that depend on machine revenue.

“Skill games help to support thousands of Pennsylvania small businesses, fraternal and volunteer organizations, including VFWs, American Legions and volunteer fire companies,” he said.

The industry has also faced increased scrutiny in other legal matters. In 2025, the estate of murdered gaming-store clerk Ashokkumar Patel was awarded $15.3 million in a negligence case involving Pace-O-Matic and Miele Manufacturing. Pace-O-Matic responded by calling the decision “an unfortunate outcome” and said it planned to appeal.

Meanwhile, law enforcement agencies have continued pursuing illegal gambling operations. In April 2026, Attorney General Dave Sunday announced guilty pleas from Buffalo Skills Games, Inc. and J.J. Amusement, Inc. in a case involving hundreds of illegal video gambling machines.

“Illegal gambling operations are not victimless crimes,” Sunday said. “They can fuel criminal enterprises, exploit individuals addicted to gambling, and rip off consumers with games that are not regulated, provide little or no chance of winning, and do not comply with gambling self-exclusion lists intended to protect those struggling with addiction.”

For now, the Supreme Court has settled a question that dominated Pennsylvania gambling law for years. Whether the future involves regulation, taxation, legalization, tighter controls or prohibition, the next major decisions will come from the General Assembly rather than the courts.

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Today in prediction market news, we’re following the biggest developments across the industry in real time, including Novig’s CFTC approval, the latest movement on crypto market legislation, and other major stories shaping prediction markets, sports event trading, and regulated forecasting platforms. Follow our live blog throughout the day for breaking updates, market reactions, and analysis from across the prediction markets and iGaming sectors.

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