What seemed like a dip last year when Liverpool failed to qualify for the Champions League has turned into a disaster within the first 7 league games of this season.

A Liverpool FC Blog writer has written a passionate article about his view of the failings. The manager yet to stamp his style on the team, the mess behind the scenes and the lack of quality players in the team.

It's this last bit that puzzles me most. Obviously the players are nowhere near achieving their potential. Even Liverpool's second string would fetch more on the transfer market than Northampton's. But is it because Rafa made terrible acquisitions or something else?

At the heart of the team are many players who were at Liverpool two or more seasons ago when they were regularly vying for a top three spot. Gerrard, Carragher, Torres, Babel, Kuyt, Agger, Aurelio, Lucas, Ngog, Reina, Skrtel.

Have these players lost their ability? Have all the newcomers been poor quality buys? I certainly agree with fshadow1 that £17.5m was way too much for Glenn Johnson but he's not a rubbish player.

So the question is, why are so many top class players not hitting form? Is it because of the troubles with the owners? Sure, discontent in the boardroom can easily be felt throughout a club, unsettling the team and surfacing in mixed performances. But these are top players, paid top salaries. If they can't put off-pitch issues that aren't their problem from their minds then there's something wrong.

Or is it down to the dressing-room itself? Many a club has lost it's way because cliques form in the team, personalities get in the way of the team ethic, key players think themselves bigger than the club and start to assume authority, managers are undermined and can't command respect from the players that is needed. Is this the case behind the scenes at Liverpool?

Hodgson just says expectations have to be lower until the team learns to play together. But how much lower? Losing to Northampton surely is low enough!

Gerrard and Torres were effectively cut off from the rest of the team floating alone way, way above two simple and obvious banks of four which seems to possess no spark, creativity or game intelligence to supply them.

Well in all honesty that was the worst defeat i have witnessed for years. Manchester 'money bags' City 3 Liverpool 'the new hope' 0.

Simply Appalling. And if we're honest, at no stage in the game did it look as though the result would be any different.

How you may ask- after the disaster that was the 2009-2010 season – was that our worst defeat? Simply because of the level of tactical naivety on show, Something we have not seen in many a year.

Arsenal needed the win to put them back in touch with the top two. Assuming they win their game in hand, Arsenal will be level on points with Manchester United and 3 points behind Chelsea. Had they lost the game, no doubt the critics would have once again derided Arsenal's youth and inability to finish teams off despite playing beautiful football (though not today).

Liverpool desperately needed the win to get their season back on track. Out of the Champions League and 13 points off top spot, Liverpool are no longer title contenders but alarmingly may struggle to clinch one of the coveted top 4 places.

Today's loss leaves them 5 points off a top-four spot and on the same points - after 16 games - as Birmingham. Liverpool's season can now be considered to be in crisis!

It's not just that their own performances haven't been good enough. The real concern is the quality of the teams that have edged above them. Aston Villa beat Manchester United yesterday after Ferguson himself commented on their great form. Tottenham - despite a surprise defeat to Wolves - have been attractive and effective. Manchester City have stuttered between blandness and brilliance but have an increasingly strong squad that will only get better.

I predicted some time ago that the first impact the new Manchester City would have would be to push Liverpool or Arsenal out of the top 4. That may not quite be true yet, but it looks increasingly likely that Liverpool will be the first casualty of the growing confidence of City. Villa and Spurs.

Last week's triumph over bitter rivals Manchester United seems to have only papered over the cracks. Now don't get me wrong, I think the likes of Pepe Reina, Javier Mascherano and Yossi Benayoun are decent players, but now everybody knows that Liverpool rely far too heavily on their only really top class players, injury prone goal machine Fernando Torres and talismanic skipper Steven Gerrard. With the latter missing at the moment there is a gaping hole in Liverpool's midfield and without him (and arguably more so, Torres) the Reds are simply no more than a top 6 side at best. Fans will argue that Alberto Aquilani is a talented prospect, but I fail to see any logic in buying a player who has been ravaged by injuries for £20 million. And I don't think he's even what they need. The sale of Xabi Alonso looks to be a horrible bit of business, especially conisdering his boots are being filled by the distinctly average Lucas Leiva. When Torres is injured, Benitez has the, ahem, luxury of deciding whether to pick David N'Gog or Andriy Voronin. With no due respect, I doubt even Hull City's back 4 will be shaking at the prospect of either of them spearheading Liverpool's attack. What puzzles me is why all the football 'experts' have only just realised this blatant lack of depth, when certainly most football fans I know, had deduced that this was the case a long time ago. People argue that Benitez had no funds. Bollocks. This is partly the case because he has wasted ridiculous sums of money on 'quality' players like Robbie Keane, Ryan Babel, Albert Riera, Andrea Dossena, Jermaine Pennant and Fernando Morientes. Shrewd. I don't see why the American owners are despised so much. They have backed Benitez in the transfer market and are willing, eventually we are lead to believe, to plan the new stadium the fans crave for. They moan because they have not spent a penny this summer - because they raised around £40 million by selling Alonso and others. But he has bought Glen Johnson and Alberto Aquilani for around £20 million each. Arsene Wenger has guided Arsenal to a terrific start. Now, The Gunners are short on funds, as they aim to pay off the stadium debt, a project which will inevitably benefit Arsenal in the long run. Wenger also didn't spend a penny. He made a £30 million profit: selling Adebayor and Toure to Man City, who have flattered to decieve, either by their performances or attitudes, and bringing in Thomas Vermaelen, arguably the best bit of business in recent seasons. So, come on, let's all shed a tear for Liverpool.

So, worst case scenario (and at this rate a very realistic one): Liverpool are knocked out of the Champions League at the first hurdle and fail to qualify for the competition next season. Benitez is sacked and replaced by a manager who the fans are not fond of. The money continues to dry up, especially due to the season failures. Fernando Torres, disillusioned with Europa League football, leaves for Real Madrid/Barcelona, and Liverpool can not afford to spend the big bucks they recieved on a genuine replacement. Steven Gerrard has to decide whether to fight with his boyhood club or join a team that is actually going to challenge for the Premier League crown he desires. The Reds begin season 2010/2011 with a strikeforce of Voronin, N'Gog, Heskey (because all legends return, apparently!) and some youngster their deluded manager drafted in.

Drastic? Yes. Overdramatic? Yes. Likely to happen? Probably not exactly as I have depicted. Will I laugh if it does? There's more chance of Tottenham winning the league than me not.

Happy Halloween.

But, how much do the games between the big 4 affect the outcome of the Premiership? Is a “six-pointer” really a six-pointer? Is it possible for Arsenal to do relatively badly against Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool but still retain a title challenge – or is the opposite the case – beating off your closest rivals is the essential first step to domination in the domestic league? This question has long puzzled me and I haven’t read too much by way of explanation for it.

So, I thought I’d turn Statto, and donning my slightly worn-out A-level Maths-with-Stats hat, I set about trying to work it out…

The Big 4 League
To do this, I looked at all the results between the big 4 stretching back to the 2002/03 season. This was just before the Abramovich effect lifted Chelsea into England’s elite and the big 4 was, to all intents and purposes, christened. In the season before this, the 2001/02 season Chelsea finished mid-table and you could make a case for Leeds being part of the Premier League’s elite (strange days indeed!). From the 2002/03 season until today the final Premiership League table has always included Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United in its top five. In only two exceptions was the top 4 breached by a team which was not a part of the big 4, in fact, by Newcastle (who finished third in 02/03) and Everton (who narrowly finished fourth ahead of their local rivals in 04/05).

Quite simply for each season from 2002/03 until 07/08 I pulled out the games between the big 4 and compiled a new league based on their results against each other in the Premier League. We can call it the Big 4 League. Like a Champions League group stage table, the big 4 play each other home and away in a total of 12 fixtures per season. If one of the big 4 were to win all their games home and away against the other members of the big 4 they would bag 18 points and top the Big 4 league. Make sense?

After this, I took the Big 4 League I made for each season and had a look to see how it compared with the final Premier League standings for each season. If results between the big 4 were significant, so the theory goes, the order Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United appear in the Big 4 league should closely resemble the final standings in the Premier League for that season. If not, there shouldn’t be a clear correlation.

When the big 4 play each other
In exactly 50% of cases (12/24), Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United finish in the Big 4 League in exactly the same order as they do in the Premiership. Interestingly, in 5 of the last 6 seasons, the Premiership winner is the same as the Big 4 League winner. For example, in their Untouchables season of 03/04 Arsenal managed home and away wins against both Liverpool and Chelsea, tallying 14 points in total against their closest rivals. Not surprisingly, they won. Chelsea topped that in 05/06, taking 15 points off other members of the big 4, winning the league in the process. Past form suggests, therefore, that if Liverpool continue their promising start and stay on top of Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United over the course of the season they should have a very strong chance of taking the title.

In almost all cases (23/24) teams finished in the same positions in both the Big 4 League and the Premiership, or were removed by only one place. The sole exception came in the 06/07 season. Somehow, and this seems to be an anomaly and a frustrating one at that for fans of the Gunners, Arsene Wenger’s men managed to win the Big 4 League with 11 points beating Manchester United home and away in the process but finished fourth in the Premiership. The lesson from that situation must surely be that once you’ve done the hard work of clocking points over your closest rivals you need to make sure you pick up the wins on the road against weaker teams – a factor lacking in Arsenal’s form from that season.

Interestingly, Liverpool's league form against other members of the Big 4 is absolutely atrocious. They've repeatedly finished bottom of the Big 4 league and so have unsurprisingly never breached the top 2 by the climax of an EPL season. By bagging 6 points by November, Rafa Benitez's men have already equalled their season-best performances of the past six years against Man U, AFC and Chelsea. Again, good omens for the Anfield faithful that perhaps this is their year.

I’ve copied all the big 4 leagues below so you can draw your own conclusions too.

Conclusion
So, do games between the big 4 constitute “six-pointers”? Clearly, what I’ve discussed here is just one small idea with a very small sample size, but, yes, how the big 4 do against each other seems to reflect significantly in the outcome of the Premier League based on the form of the last six seasons. With this in mind, Arsenal had better begin taking the points off their rivals. A home win against Man United at the Emirates would be a good place to start.

The Big 4 Leagues from the 02/03 season to the 07/08 season
07/08 Pts W L D GD Order the Big 4 finished in the EPL
Manu 13 4 1 1 +6 1
Chels 08 2 2 2 -1 2
Arsnl 06 1 3 2 -1 3
Lpool 04 0 4 2 -4 4

06/07
Arsnl 11 3 2 1 +2 4
Manu 08 2 2 2 +1 1
Chels 07 1 4 1 -1 2
Lpool 06 2 0 4 -2 3

05/06
Chels 15 5 0 1 +10 1
Manu 08 2 2 2 +1 2
Arsnl 04 1 1 4 -5 4
Lpool 04 1 1 4 -6 3

04/05
Chels 14 4 2 0 +5 1
Manu 12 4 0 2 +3 3
Arsnl 05 1 2 3 -3 2
Lpool 03 1 0 5 -5 4

03/04
Arsnl 14 4 2 0 +5 1
Chels 07 2 1 3 -1 2
Manu 06 1 3 2 -1 3
Lpool 06 2 0 4 -3 4

02/03
Manu 14 4 2 0 +8 1
Arsnl 07 1 4 1 -1 2
Chels 06 1 3 2 -2 3
Lpool 05 1 2 3 -5 4

But while this obviously pitches them head-to-head with Manchester United and Chelsea who are undoubtedly the front-runners, it creates at least as big a problem for Liverpool and Arsenal.

These two teams don't have the resources of the top two, but are still consistently performing at a level above the rest of the league. So while they desire the Premiership title, they have been relatively comfortable in 3rd or 4th spot with guaranteed Champions League football each year - vitally important to both clubs.

With the ascendency of Manchester City, though, this comfortable balance is seriously upset. Winning the Premiership is incredibly tough and not guaranteed by spending more as Chelsea know all too well. Getting into the top four though is a very realistic amibition.

But if Manchester City get one of the Champions League places, who drops out? Suddenly Arsenal and Liverpool are competing for one Champions League spot, raising the stakes and putting both managers at more risk.

It will be interesting to see how Arsenal and Liverpool react to this threat, whether their own spending - especially Arsenal's - increases to further strengthen their squads.

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Last year I seem to recall, Spurs were going to finish above Arsenal!

So, who do you think will finish top this season?

We're always on the look out for new writers. So if you fancy writing about your team, please get in touch.

So here are the results :

No more than £600 - 13%
£600 to £1000 - 32%
£1000 to £1250 - 13%
£1250 to £1500 - 8%
£1500 to £2000 - 5%
I'd pay anything to watch my team 29%

So whilst I'm not surprised that 32% wouldn't pay more than £1000, I'm surprised that 29% of you said you'd pay anything to watch your team.

So, while many ticket holders are thinking of giving up their season ticket, because for them it's becoming far too expensive, there will always be a large number of fans that are willing to pay, what ever the club demands!

We're always on the look out for new writers. So if you fancy writing about your team, please get in touch.

We're always on the look out for new writers. So if you fancy writing about your team, please get in touch.

With one game down and two to go, we now know what we're up against, and personally, I wasn't overly impressed by Liverpool’s performance.

Given the cost and how difficult it can be to get tickets to see a match, I think if you're luck enough to get to a game, then you should stay and see your team through the bitter end.

Anyway, if your guilty of not staying, what's your reason?

Why?

1) They've shown such grit, determination and belief, something the other clubs would do well to emanate, including Arsenal!
2) They've defeated both Liverpool and now Chelsea, they've had the toughest run in.
3) The last time they reached the semi was in 1912
4) My son managed to win a few quid backing Barnsley :)
5) We'll be hearing a lot more from "Dickie Bird", much to the annoyance of one Barnsley fan!

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Wenger appears to be confident, though he doesn't under estimate the challenge ahead:

"Milan are very consistent in this competition and they have a great record, so it is the perfect opportunity for us to show how good we are - especially the younger players."

He also said that the "first leg at Emirates will be decisive in determining who progresses to the quarter-finals."

Personally, I'm feeling somewhat nervous following "that" match. In the papers this morning I read that Cesc is calling on the team to have a positive mental attitude towards the game, shame he didn't have that himself at the week end!

Anyway, I'm looking forward to see how Arsenal rise to the challenge, albeit with some nervousness. Unfortunately I'll be joining the millions of armchair viewers on this one, having given my ticket to my son. The sacrifices parents make!

Come on you Gunners!