RNE TRADING, Analisi Tecnica, Elliott Wave, Trading, Teoria delle Onde di Elliott

We moved to G Squared experience!

2008-10-09T10:01:00.003+02:00

Hi all,
we moved and expand the site to G Squared!

There you will find a new web site and more precious articles and Weekly Reports about main world indexes!

It is at the beginning, so I apologize for any technical problem that you could have.

Bye!

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 6th of October

2008-10-07T08:20:00.003+02:00

New and violent sell off in the world markets, as I predicted in the previous post and in many other posts long time ago.

S&P500 has not reached its first target down, and the bear movement should go on below 1000 point. S&P500 is inside a violent third wave down and it is more violent than expected. Maybe, in two or three days we could reach our first target.

S&P/MIB, consequently dragged down, is extending its bearish movement. Targets indicated in our Weekly Reports at 24.500-24.000 have been reached and crossed!
Now, S&P/MIB goes for new bottoms below 23.000 and this new bottoms are indicated in my new S&P/MIB Weekly Report, with a lot of technical details!

H.F.L.

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 4th of October

2008-10-04T16:10:00.004+02:00

S&P500 will break its temporary support at 1100 soon. Targets are down and far from here!

S&P/MIB will consequently break its support area at 25.500-25.000.

Paulson/Bush plan has finally been approved, but are you sure that the markets desired that plan? Are you really sure that the american people have enough money to support fiscal pression necessary for 1 Trillion dollars government plan?

In these days we hear a lot of funny news.
For example, "Paulson/Bush plan is done to give stability to the markets" ...
Infact, during last Friday session the S&P500 was up more than 2% before the plan, and soon after the plan vote it began to sink and closed its session 1% down. Is this stability?
Furthermore, remember that nationalization is the enemy of Wall Street. Nationalization means profit per shares equal to zero: this is enough to start the market crash.

Dear readers, I am only an Informatic Engineer, a mad financial blogger, with no MBA, with a strong passion for Technical Analysis. I watch and analyze only two things: price and time. But sometimes it is enough to understand the crazy financial bullshits that we've been told by the media.

Targets written in my Weekly Forecast are still valid. For the moment, there is no need for me to make my readers spend money on new forecast with same targets.

H.F.L.

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 30th of September

2008-09-30T08:08:00.004+02:00

S&P500 crash is not over. Possible pullback at 1150, or 1180 at maximum. Then the fall will keep going on, and the target is below 1100.

S&P/MIB will play consequently and will be dragged down. Support at 25.500 will be broken soon. Possible pullback at 26.500 at maximum, then the bear market will go on.

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my S&P500 and S&P/MIB Weekly Reports, still valid even not updated.

H.F.L.

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 26th of September

2008-09-26T15:30:00.008+02:00

This week there is no need to update my Weekly Reports since the markets have been in range. Old Weekly Reports are still valid!

S&P500 break of 1180 would be a further confirmation of the bear market. Eventually, a bear market rally should stop at 1230-1250 at maximum. Above 1310 the scenario is different and temporary bullish.

S&P/MIB follows: break of 26.800 would be a confirmation of bear market, with a major force, and eventually the bear market rally should stop at 27.500-27.700. Above 28.500 the scenario is different and temporary bullish.

It is better to wait for Monday before going into position: usually, on Monday we could have a countertrend up movement, even a violent movement, based on weekend news. Anyway, targets of this bear market are very far from here.

What we are watching in these days is a tentative to support the market before the crash with some fuzzy, smiling and even confused news: Warren Buffett saving Goldman Sachs, Paulson saving the financial system and Bush saving the world!
Waves of market tell another story, that probably is coming soon ...

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my S&P500 and S&P/MIB Weekly Reports.

H.F.L.

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 23rd of September

2008-09-23T14:02:00.006+02:00

S&P500 break of 1200 would be a confirmation of our bearish model. Otherwise, index above 1255 would restart the sideways movement.

For S&P/MIB, a break of 27.000 is necessary to confirm the bearish movement. In case of index above 28.300, the bear market would be stopped for a moment.

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my S&P500 and S&P/MIB Weekly Reports.

For other RNE Trading articles on italian languages, look at here:
http://www.smarttrading.it/default.asp?idlingua=1&idContenuto=4259
http://www.trend-online.com/?stran=izbira&p=blog&id=192951

H.F.L.

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 19th of September

2008-09-21T16:04:00.005+02:00

Is the bear market finally ended? Will Paulson and Central Banks operations be effective on subprime crisis? It is too early to say yes, and there are a lot of doubts surrounding this operation. For example, how much will the american people pay for this? 20 billion dollars? 200 billion dollars? And how will they pay this, if they don't have enough money even to pay for their home loans?

From a technical point of view, safe zone for S&P500 is only above 1310, and for S&P/MIB is above 29.500. Before these crossings, it is unsafe to say that the bear market has ended.

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my NEW updated S&P500 and S&P/MIB Weekly Reports.

H.F.L.

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 19th of September

2008-09-19T19:39:00.003+02:00

S&P500 main resistance is at 1260-1270.

S&P/MIB is near to its strong resistance at 27.900-28.000.

I believe that we are still inside a bear market rally movement, fueled by Federal and Central Banks operations and Three Witches Friday technical expirations.

H.F.L.

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 18th of September

2008-09-18T14:36:00.002+02:00

S&P500 final target is below 1.100. First resistance at 1.200-1.220.

S&P/MIB final target is below 26.000. First resistance at 26.500. As previously stated in my posts, our index will be dragged down by S&P500.

Now oil is below 100 dollars: if you remember, some weeks ago the media-mantra was: "oil down, stocks up!". Now the media-mantra is: "oil up, stocks up!".
Funny, isn't it?

My readers have never been cheated: we are facing the beginning of a new recession period, so stocks and oil go down together.

H.F.L.

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 17th of September

2008-09-17T08:43:00.003+02:00

S&P500 reached the second target at 1180 indicated un my S&P500 Weekly Report and now it is pulling back. First resistance is at 1220 (see hourly chart on the left). Then, I wait for another bearish movement.

Similarly, our S&P/MIB reached its first target at 26.400 indicated in my S&P/MIB Weekly Report and now it is pulling back to its first resistance at 27.500-27.600. Again, I wait for a new bearish movement. Situation is safe only above 28.500.

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my updated S&P500 and S&P/MIB Weekly Reports.

H.F.L.

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 12th of September

2008-09-13T15:58:00.003+02:00

Nothing new for S&P500: always below 1266, in range between 1220 and 1270. A break of 1215 could definitely open the door to next bearish targets written in my S&P500 Weekly Report.

For S&P/MIB, pullback has reached a significant level and from here we could see a major bullish pullback to 28.500-28.800 at maximum. Viceversa, the break of 27.500 will be the signal for the continuation of the bear market to targets indicated in my S&P/MIB Weekly Report.

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my updated S&P500 and S&P/MIB Weekly Reports.

H.F.L.

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 10th of September

2008-09-10T18:00:00.004+02:00

S&P500 normal pullback area is 1250-1270. Then the heavy downward movement should restart. Break of support at 1210-1200 will be a confirmation of this bear market wave 3.

S&P/MIB could be dragged down by S&P500. Support at 27.500 should be reached and then probably broken.

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my updated S&P500 and S&P/MIB Weekly Reports.

H.F.L.

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 8th of September

2008-09-08T18:16:00.003+02:00

S&P500 pullback target is 1270-1280. Only above 1310 this pullback will be something different. I think that this is the last movement up before the big crash.

S&P/MIB situation is very similar: 28.800 is the first target of this pullback, and at that level there is a strong resistance. Bearish market is over only above 29.500. S&P/MIB could be dragged down by S&P500 possible crash. Support at 27.500 is very important: a break of this support will open the door to a new violent bearish movement.

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my updated S&P500 and S&P/MIB Weekly Reports.

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 5th of September

2008-09-05T20:04:00.007+02:00

S&P500, S&P/MIB and oil: same trend, as stated in the previous post. Recession is beginning to make its effect on the market.

S&P500 is probably inside a third wave down, and S&P/MIB is terminating its fifth wave down. Break of 1366 for S&P500 has been fatal, and S&P/MIB has been dragged down, as I stated in my previous posts.

I have updated the S&P/MIB and also SP500 Weekly Report!

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my S&P500 and S&P/MIB Weekly Reports.

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 3rd of September

2008-09-03T19:24:00.004+02:00

Dear readers,

don't look at the oil prices, look at the S&P500, the world greatest financial market.

Oil prices are going down since we are going into a new recession period, and I think that even the stock markets, soon, will go down along with oil and, generally speking, with commodity prices.

S&P/MIB is probably inside a corrective movement, and it is highly probable that it will follow the fall of S&P500.

Monitor these levels:

S&P/MIB weekly resistance at 29.350-29.450
S&P500 support at 1366

Break of 1366 will probably lead S&P500 to a new violent down movement (third bearish wave).

As soon as possible I will update my reports.

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 2nd of September

2008-09-02T19:53:00.003+02:00

S&P500 movement is always inside a range between 1310 and 1266. We wait for the index to come out from this range.

S&P/MIB break of Fibonacci retracement at 28.800 is pushing the index towards its next strong resistance at 29.350. Above 29.600 we could have a very strong run to 30.000, but I think that the index should stop at about 29.350-29.450, for the moment. In my opinion this is again a corrective movement.

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my newly updated S&P500 and S&P/MIB Weekly Reports.

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 29th of August

2008-08-30T15:34:00.002+02:00

The main question is: how could our italian index S&P/MIB go up if the S&P500 will go down? Will our index beat the largest index in the world?
Difficult to say yes, but world of possibilities is infinite ...

S&P500 main level are always 1310 and 1266. Probably next week there will be the setup of this ugly and violent third wave down, long awaited till now, but for this I wait the breakdown of 1266. 28th of August, setup date indicated in my S&P500 Weekly Report, has probably set its major influence and now the great fall of this index should begin.

S&P/MIB has reached a major retracement area on the hourly chart (see figure on the left), filling up the gap, and now the S&P/MIB index should be dragged down by major USA markets.

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my newly updated S&P500 and S&P/MIB Weekly Reports.

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 28th of August

2008-08-28T16:11:00.003+02:00

S&P500 critical levels are 1310 and 1266. Above 1310 it could develop an upward movement to target indicated in my S&P500 Weekly Report, and below 1266 it could begin a downward ugly third wave.

S&P/MIB is near to a strong retracement level on hourly chart (see figure on the left). Index should go to 28.700-28800 at maximum, covering the hourly gap left on the chart, and then it should develop a new wave down towards targets written in my S&P/MIB Weekly Report. Critical level to re-think about short position is above 29.000.

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 25th of August

2008-08-25T19:23:00.009+02:00

S&P500 needs a break of 1266 to confirm its bearish momentum, and this should be very near.

Italian S&P/MIB is very weak and should be dragged down by S&P500 and the targets are those already mentioned in my previous post.

For Nasdaq100, a break of 1800 could be the prelude to the start of a new impulsive bearish wave, but now it is far from there.

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my newly updated S&P500 and S&P/MIB Weekly Reports.

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 22nd of August

2008-08-22T16:04:00.003+02:00

S&P500 bear market rally has probably finished at 1305, with an intraday maximum to 1310 where we had a 50% retracement of the entire bearish movement. Now, we are probably inside a first stage of a wide third wave. Support at 1266 is strong, but it should be broken during these days. Eventually, a rally above 1310-1320 will lead the index to its next target at 1355.

For italian S&P/MIB (see chart), target for this bear market could be 27.000, 26.400 and eventually, at the breaking of 26.400, even more down. We are probably still inside a final 5th wave. From a technical point of view, our index has confirmed the break of its Long Dynamic Stop level at 28.077. Our custom MACD has crossed down its signal line and this could be a bearish signal that will last for some weeks.

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my newly updated S&P500 and S&P/MIB Weekly Reports.

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 14th of August

2008-08-14T17:49:00.004+02:00

S&P500 is probably involved in a tedious and annoying final wedge, final wave C of an ABC corrective wave. Probably this wedge will end in the area between 1320 and 1345 and then it will go down very fast.
Nasdaq100 is now the strongest american index, but it is now pulling against a great resistance at 1955. Very interesting above 1995-2000.
S&P/MIB is weak and if it holds support at 28.700 then it should go to 30.000 within the end of this month, at maximum. We are still inside a corrective movement.

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my S&P500 Weekly Report. As soon as possible I will update my Weekly Reports!

I will be on holiday until 31st of August. My blog will be updated sometimes, but not very frequently. Anyway, stay tuned and have a nice holiday!

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 13th of August

2008-08-13T17:47:00.004+02:00

S&P500 seems to have started the terrible third wave down. Support breakdown of 1266 (daily close) will be the confirmation. Now the worst seems to be coming: stay tuned and beware! Target for this downward wave 3 is very far from here!

S&P/MIB should be drag by S&P500 and support at 26.400 should be reached and, maybe, crossed down.

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my S&P500 Weekly Report. As soon as possible I will update my Weekly Reports!

I will be on holiday until 31st of August. My blog will be updated sometimes, but not very frequently. Anyway, stay tuned and have a nice holiday!

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 1st of August

2008-08-01T16:00:00.011+02:00

S&P500 touched a great resistance at 1283-1285 and then retraced: normal behaviour.
Retracement towards 1230 are normal: if this level is hold, S&P500 could rally even to 1310.
Below 1230 it is possible to reach the targets indicated by my S&P500 Weekly Report.

Nasdaq100 is weaker now: it must hold 1800 to rally up, or it will crash down.

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my S&P500 Weekly Report.

I will be on holiday until 31st of August. My blog will be updated sometimes, but not very frequently. Anyway, stay tuned and have a nice holiday!

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

S&P500: Elliott Wave comment at 30th of July

2008-07-30T15:30:00.006+02:00

Great rally yesterday for S&P500, and today it could rally again.
Key level for S&P500 is 1283: only above this level there is a safe zone for a real bullish corrective movement until middle of August.

Our italian index, S&P/MIB, should behave consequently.

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my S&P500 Weekly Report.

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!

S&P500: Elliott Wave situation at 29th of July

2008-07-29T15:01:00.000+02:00

Yesterday S&P500 session was characterized by a strong bear movement, but this could be the last. An immediate reaction from this level could start a new corrective bullish second wave, ending during middle of August.Otherwise, break of 1230 could start a new bearish movement with target indicated in my S&P500 Weekly Report. In other word, according to the Elliott Wave Theory, yesterday we've had the final movement of this bearish wave or we could still be inside a final movement of this wave, and this movement will end at targets indicated in my Weekly Report.

For Elliott Wave counting, further details, targets, setup dates and technical charts, please refer to my S&P500 Weekly Report.

Humanitas, Felicitas et Libertas omnibus!