TODAY: Popular social network banned; Memorial fights foreign agent label in court; Alyokhina refused parole; Bolotnaya protesters’ apartments raided; no recession, but insufficient growth; Lebedev witnesses admit they were pressured; business students want Gazprom jobs.

Vkontakte, a popular social network with over 210 million users, has been banned from distributing content across Russia, thought to be in connection with the forum’s use by opposition leaders to organise protests.  Rights group Memorial is in court today to fight state prosecutors who want it to register as a ‘foreign agent’.  Memorial head, Alexander Cherkasov, said, ‘We’re not sitting and waiting. We’re staging a counter-attack. They’re taking us back to the ideas of the (Soviet) past. It’s a sign of madness.’  This piece discusses some reasons for the Kremlin’s crackdown on long-respected pollster, the Levada Center: ‘Why is it so hard for authoritarian leaders to accurately discern public opinion and act accordingly?’  Jailed Pussy Riot member Maria Alyokhina, now on hunger strike, has had her parole request denied.  The case against Bolotnaya Square activists is ongoing; two Left Front activists had their apartments raided, and one was taken in for questioning in connection with the protest last year.  Armed police have searched the offices of a company working on developing sports facilities for the Sochi Olympics.  Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov says the country will avoid recession this year, despite ‘insufficient’ growth. Russia’s poor economic growth situation is seen by many as a political problem, requiring ‘the protection of property rights, an effective and independent judiciary and fair competition’; and Vladimir Putin is incorrect to blame a slack cabinet, says Bloomberg.  But Putin has always had ‘an eye out for betrayal’, according to his early biographer. ‘He suffers from an inability to trust people.’

Witnesses in the trial against newspaper tycoon Alexander Lebedev have admitted they were pressured into attending the court case: ‘I went to the Investigative Committee about a completely different matter and they said, “Do you remember that television programme? We need witnesses.”’  Speaking at a meeting of entrepreneurs held to discuss the release of thousands of businesspeople imprisoned for financial crimes, President Vladimir Putin said the proposal needed more work.  ‘Long-standing divisions and divergent views’ were apparent during yesterday’s annual Moscow European Security Conference, with missile defense singled out as the most pressing issue.  Serbia and Russia will sign a strategic agreement today.

A new survey suggests that Gazprom is ranked the most attractive employer by business students.  The company spent more than $1 billion on its 20th anniversary celebrations.  Russia’s middle class are increasingly focused on leaving, not changing, the country, says this piece.  Following a powerful earthquake off Russia’s Far East, a tsunami warning was issued and then promptly retracted.

PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin (front) meets with businessmen and entrepreneurs at Voronezhsintezkauchuk plant, producing synthetic rubber and latex, in the city of Vorovezh, May 23, 2013. REUTERS/Mikhail Klimentyev/RIA Novosti/Pool 

TODAY: Amnesty highlights Russia’s rights failures; Pussy Riot member on hunger strike; witness called by Navalny prosecutors backs his innocence; Rosbank CEO dismissed, assets seized; Council of Europe to expand in Russia; Putin centralising control.

Amnesty International’s country-by-country annual human rights report for this year remarks that Vladimir Putin’s return to the presidency has curbed freedom of assembly and created ‘broadly weakened dissent’, adding Pussy Riot members and Bolotnaya Square protesters to its list of prisoners of conscience.  The criminal case against the twelve opposition activists accused of participating in ‘mass riots’ at the Bolotnaya rally last May has been sent to court.  Jailed Pussy Riot member Maria Alyokhina has gone on hunger strike in protest against a court decision to bar her from her own parole hearing, and banner her lawyers from further representing her. ‘Let the troika sitting here – the judge, the prosecutor and the colony employee – decide my fate.’  Paul McCartney is the latest celebrity to throw his weight behind Alyokhina’s case, in a handwritten letter to the Kremlin urging hers and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova’s release.  Kirov region governor Nikita Belykh was summoned by state prosecutors as a witness in the trial against anti-corruption blogger and opposition figure Alexei Navalny; according to his testimony (video), Navalny is not guilty and that the charges against him are ‘dubious’.  But Navalny maintains certainty that he will be convicted for political reasons nonetheless; and this extensive report on politicised court cases and the justice system notes that, according to current statistics, less than 1% of all verdicts issued in Russian courts are ‘not guilty’.

In the wake of his arrest on bribery charges, Vladimir Golubkov has been dismissed from his CEO position at Rosbank by parent company Société Générale.  Golubkov’s assets have been seized, including properties and bank accounts.  VTB says it will sell its stake in Rosbank before the end of the year.  Reuters looks at current challenges facing foreign banks in Russia.  The head of the Council of Europe is demanding that Russia permit gay rallies. ‘This is a fundamental principle in the European Convention on Human Rights.’  The Council has announced that it will expand its Russian office and begin working with the government on a list of projects which, it says, is a sign that Russia takes the group seriously.  In advance of today’s conference on European Security, Deputy Defence Minister Anatoly Antonov highlighted a ‘lack of trust’ between Russia and Europe and called for the two sides to make their security ‘indivisible’.

Vladimir Putin is increasingly centralising his control of the government, says a new research report.  Sergei Pridkoho has been formally appointed as deputy prime minister and Kremlin chief of staff.  According to a new draft, still yet to be signed by Putin, Russia is planning to switch to a new tax formula for natural gas producers that takes energy price into account.  French actor Gerard Depardieu has praised his ‘special relationship’ with Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.

PHOTO: Jailed Pussy Riot punk rock group member Maria Alyokhina is seen on a monitor, as she takes part in a video conference from the penal colony, inside the courtroom during a hearing in the town of Berezniki May 22, 2013. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

TODAY: Lavrov warns Azerbaijan over Eurovision sleight; Medvedev wants better weapons; Lebedev expects guilty verdict; Politkovskaya case returns to court; expelled Firestone was Magnitsky advocate; VTB offering; foreign banking in the spotlight; progress made on blasphemy bill. 

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov weighed in on the topic of the Eurovision Song Contest during a meeting with his Azerbaijani counterpart, where he called Azerbaijan’s failure to award any points to Dina Garipova’s entry  an ‘outrageous incident’, and threatened that it ‘will not go unanswered’.  Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev insists that he does not mind being referred to as ‘Dimon’, the diminutive nickname given to him by web users. ‘This is how I was called in my childhood. It’s all trifle.’  Medvedev is calling for Russia to start providing its military with superior weapons to those of their Western counterparts.  The case against tycoon Alexander Lebedev is falling apart after most of the prosecution’s witnesses failed to attend a court hearing, but Lebedev says he is expecting a guilty verdict from the ‘trumped up, fabricated’ trial nonetheless.  A new case against five men suspected of involvement in the 2006 murder of journalist Anna Politkovskaya has been sent to court.  It has been revealed that Thomas Firestone, the former U.S. Justice Department official who was declared ‘persona non grata’ and barred entry to Russia earlier this month, once worked for a law firm that investigated white collar corruption and bribery, and that Firestone was a vocal advocate for the release of Sergei Magnitsky back in 2009.

Europe’s crude oil refineries could see a wave of closures in response to ‘a flood of Russian diesel fuel’.  VTB’s $3.3 billion share offering will close this week, with hefty investments from three sovereign wealth funds.  In the wake of Société Générale’s banking troubles over the Rosbank bribery scandal, Reuters has compiled a factbox on foreign banks currently operating in, or quitting, Russia.  Rosbank is currently cutting ‘hundreds of back office jobs’ at its Moscow headquarters.  Soft power initiatives have been employed in a bid to combat ‘a downward trend in Western public opinion about Russia’, not alleviated by a recent string of PR failures, says the Moscow Times.  The Kremlin’s current economic policies (which don’t appear to be working to stimulate growth) may be linked to Sergei Glazyev, former trade minister and now economic adviser to Vladimir Putin, writes Anders Aslund.

Russia’s ability to use the past to alter the way people think about the present is a very powerful political weapon, says Al-Jazeera, and still very much in use, as Kremlin officials seek to make criticism of Russia’s role in World War II illegal.  Duma lawmakers are moving forward on plans to impose jail sentences for blasphemy, with the bill in question winning 304-4 in its second reading.

PHOTO: Pyotr Verzilov, husband of jailed punk group Pussy Riot band member Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, holds a placard outside a court building in the town of Berezniki May 22, 2013. The placard reads, “Get Masha (Maria Alyokhina) to court”. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov 

The Levada Center’s director, Lev D. Gudkov, spoke to the New York Times about the wider implications of the Kremlin’s crackdown, and it isn’t pretty:

“We are now observing the end of an epoch that began with Gorbachev’s perestroika,” he said. “These are simply the last remnants of freedom, freedom of scholarship and freedom of information. That’s it — it’s ending with this. This prosecutor’s warning is not just a single isolated act, and it’s not just about us. It’s the end of a 25-year period in Russia.”

TODAY: Levada Centre may close over demands to label as a ‘foreign agent’; Kremlin accuses E.U. of ideology-based criticism; Skolkovo investigations politically motivated? Economic growth bleak, Kudrin says United Russia to blame; Razvozzhayev ‘kidnap’ will not be investigated; Syria, oligarch ‘tax’, Eurovision.

Independent pollster the Levada Centre, which conducts public surveys, has warned that it may have to close down in response to government insistence that it label itself a ‘foreign agent’, with the group’s director adding that the call ‘undermin[es] our credibility and reputation’.  The group’s foreign grants reportedly amount to no more than 3% of its total funding, but prosecutors have ruled that, because its polls influence public opinion, its work ‘does not constitute research but political activity’ (its latest poll reveals an increase in the number of Russians using the Internet). Vladimir Ryzhkov writes that the Kremlin’s goal ‘is to completely block foreign funding of all NGOs and to shut down those that resist the ban’.  According to Human Rights Watch, over 50 groups have now been targeted.  In response to the latest barrage of criticism, issued in response to the ‘foreign agent’ law and new measures against homosexuality, the Foreign Ministry suggested that the European Union refrain from ‘ideology-based’ remarks.  Many people working closely with the Skolkovo business center, including former Kremlin chief of staff Vladislav Surkov, believe that recent Investigative Committee corruption cases against the project are politically motivated.  Skolkovo’s president, billionaire Viktor Vekselberg, is being questioned by the Investigative Committee in connection with embezzlement accusations made in relation to a research salary paid to State Duma Deputy Ilya Ponomaryov.

Economic growth figures have emerged higher than the economy ministry’s forecasts, but are likely driven by consumption, and growth overall is weak.  Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev says Russia has a good chance of avoiding economic recession.  Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin says United Russia should take full responsibility for Russia’s current ‘stagnation’ and lack of ‘internal stimulus’.  ‘Kudrin is one of the few people in the elite that can dance this way with Putin and get away with it,’ says Brian Whitmore.  The Finance Ministry says it will not go ahead with a proposal to increase crude oil production tax.

‘As long as Mr. Assad can count on military and political support from Russia, he has no incentive to agree to a cease-fire or a political transition.’  The generosity of oligarchs and state firms paying for the $51 billion 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics is the result of ‘a sort of tax’ imposed by Vladimir Putin, says a former Kremlin official.  In accordance with a Moscow court decision, the alleged kidnapping of opposition activist Leonid Razvozzhayev will not be investigated.

Is there a Eurovision Song Contest scandal brewing? ‘It is of serious concern and surprise that at the final count of votes from Azerbaijan, Russia was not given any points’.

PHOTO: Pedestrians walk past a Bank of Moscow branch in Moscow May 19, 2013. Foreign banks that once treated Russia as an undiscovered country where easy money could be made are now finding it a cut-throat market tougher than some bargained for. Picture taken May 19. REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin

TODAY: St. Petersburg’s gay rights supporters outnumbered by Orthodox protesters; E.U. appeals to Russia over human rights; U.S. condemns Russian missile shipment to Syria; alleged spy Fogle leaves Russia; Supreme Court to hear Khodorkovsky appeal; Navalny’s father summoned; Synertech arrest; Gazprom’s crisis; robocops.

A sanctioned gay rally held in St. Petersburg on Friday lasting just 15 minutes was attacked by skinheads with smoke bombs, with Orthodox Christian activists reportedly outnumbering gay protesters two-to-one.  A further rally planned to be held in Moscow this week has been denied permission by the authorities. ‘Every year, they find a reason to reject it.’  A Levada Center Poll conducted to mark the International Day Against Homophobia found that almost half of Russians think homosexuals should have diminished rights, 38% believe that gay people should receive medical treatment, and 13% think they should be prosecuted.  The European Union is appealing to Russia not to adopt a nationwide law banning ‘gay propaganda’,  part of a wider critique of the country’s human rights record, following a meeting with Russian officials in Brussels.  America’s top military officer condemned an ‘ill-timed’ Russian shipment of defence missiles to Syria, warning that it ‘will embolden the regime’.  Israel also expressed alarm over the news.  Russia has expelled former U.S. Embassy official Thomas Firestone, possibly for turning down an invitation to spy for the intelligence services.  The Federal Security Service has revealed the identity of the C.I.A.’s station chief in Moscow, a breach of protocol likely to cause anger in Washington.  Alleged C.I.A. spy Ryan Fogle (the story has been profiled in The Independent) has left Russia, having been ordered to do so.

The Supreme Court has agreed to hear an appeal against the second conviction of jailed former Yukos head Mikhail Khodorkovsky.  The father of anti-corruption blogger Alexei Navalny has been summoned for questioning at the Investigative Committee.  The mother of another prominent blogger (and emigre), Rustem Adagamov, had her home searched by investigators last week.  Rock musician Andrei Kovalyov has been implicated in the bribery scandal involving Rosbank head Vladimir Golubkov.  An arrest warrant has been issued for the head of Synertech over the theft of state funds during the development of the Glonass satellite network.  RFE/RL reports on Gazprom’s ‘profound strategic crisis’, allegedly brought on by ‘inflexible, unwavering and shoddy policies’.  The developer of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, and Transneft head Nikolai Tokarev have had a public clash over pipeline extension plans.

Russia is apparently in the process of developing a terrorist-seeking robo-cop, despite rights organisation claims that ‘such weapons would not be consistent with international humanitarian law’.  Brian Whitmore’s newest ‘Power Vertical’ podcast discusses the Kremlin’s loss of Vladislav Surkov: ‘Maybe Putin needs a weak government to make steps in some very unpopular directions.‘  Filmmaker Alexei Balabanov has died aged 54.

PHOTO: Dina Garipova of Russia performs the song “What If” during the final of the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest at the Malmo Opera Hall in Malmo May 18, 2013. REUTERS/Jessica Gow/Scanpix Sweden

 The incessant violence is starting to impact the Nigerian economy. While Lagos hustles along without regard to the bloodshed in other parts of the country, economic activity has dipped, as in Kano, Nigeria’s second largest city. Enterprises with exposure in northern Nigeria are seeing profits shrink. Cross-border trade between northern Nigeria and its neighbors is also down.

Meanwhile, formal politics is almost entirely detached from reality. Goodluck Jonathan is widely regarded as feckless, especially in his response to the Islamist insurgency, but is still favored to win in the national elections scheduled for late next year. Nevertheless, there is more uncertainty about this election outcome than there has been at any time since the end of military rule in 1999. While Jonathan is trying to build support among the political class, his rivals are seeking to create a unified opposition party that could credibly challenge him at the polls. Sadly, both sides are resorting to traditional patronage-clientage politics without reference to the needs of the larger population.

So anxiety about the future is high. In their more pessimistic moments, some Nigerians express anxiety about whether the country in its current form will survive to election day. There is some sentiment in favor of a military takeover, but there is little evidence that the upper reaches of the military have the stomach for a return to power. While the Islamist insurgents do not offer a viable political alternative and remain divided among themselves, the threat they pose to Nigeria’s political and economic future are significant, as Jonathan’s state of emergency recognizes.

The FSB, Putin’s own former service and once one of the dominant forces within the “deep state” of the inner elite, has been quiet of late. The oprichniki of Alexander Bastrykin’s Investigative Committee (SK) have been leading the charge, whether against the opposition, or corruption in the government, or even abusive child-care workers. Bastrykin—a man with few friends and fewer scruples—has staked his career on empire-building the SK and in the process has squarely parked his tanks on the FSB’s lawn. They have already struck back, leaking the story of his threatening a journalist during an infamous “walk in the woods.” Now they may well also be trying to find ways to demonstrate to the one man who counts, Vladimir Putin, that they, not the SK, are still the real guardians of Russian security.

This is not going to lead to some new cold war, nor will it derail the new security cooperation, which is so clearly in both the Russian and US interest. However, when the Kremlin begins to define itself in terms of its enemies, when it begins to invest paranoia as politics and when struggles between secret policemen begin to define the national and international agendas, then this is a depressing time to be a Russia-watcher.

TODAY: Golubkov charged with commercial bribery; Peskov says ban on foreign bank accounts has led to no resignations; rough economic times ahead, warns U.S. agency; Putin to fly to work; gay pride events organisers to appeal to Moscow court for permission to meet; corruption video seems to encourage vigilantism; Navalny says witness against him was behind corruption scheme; Rosneft Vietnam tie-up.

Vladimir Golubkov, the head of Société Générale’s Russian unit Rosbank, has been charged with commercial bribery following his arrest earlier this week and could face seven years in prison if convicted.  As ‘one of its core markets’, Société Générale says it is committed to Russia in spite of the scandal.  Golubkov’s former boss, Mikhail Prokhorov, is requesting his release, ‘because I think people accused of financial crimes should be released on bail, not placed under arrest’.  Golubkov denies the accusations, with many saying that footage of him shown with ‘cash piled on his office desk’ may have been a set-up.  A new ban on officials keeping foreign bank accounts has not led to any leadership-level resignations, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.  Economic growth in the first quarter progressed at likely its weakest rate since 2009.  U.S. ratings agency Standard & Poor’s is warning of more harsh times ahead for Russia if the Kremlin does not do more to boost the investment climate and push for reforms.  Bloomberg sees Vladimir Putin’s attitudes towards the Rusnano and Skolkovo projects as an indication that ‘Maintaining power is more important than modernizing the economy’.  Putin is to begin using a helicopter to fly to work, in a bid to appease motorists angry over motorcade traffic jams.

Organisers of several planned gay pride events are appealing to a Moscow court over City Hall’s refusal to authorise their events, which many see as part of a long history of the city’s hostility to gay rights.  St. Petersburg’s gay rights activists will hold a rally today to mark the International Day Against Homophobia, likely a test of the city’s new laws against ‘homosexual propaganda’.  Russians are confused over a new viral video supposedly warning against corruption, but seemingly encouraging vigilantism.  Draft legislation seeking tougher punishments for blasphemy ‘are leading us back to Peter the Great’s times’.  Alexei Navalny alleged in court that a witness who testified against him had previously been accused – by Navalny himself – of being part of a corruption scheme.

A Cyprus bank run earlier this year saw $4.67 billion leaving Cypriot banks, most of it belonging Russian companies.  The FSB says it warned the U.S. in 2011 against recruiting its security agents as spies.  Rosneft and PetroVietnam have signed a memorandum of understanding to strengthen oil and gas cooperation.

PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and South African President Jacob Zuma arrive for a news conference after their meeting at the Bocharov Ruchei residence in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Krasnodar region, Russia, May 16, 2013. REUTERS/Maxim Shipenkov/Pool

However the state media in Russian can never be simply discarded.  It produces far too much content, employs far too many real journalists, and is not solely dedicated to the promotion of the state’s interest but also to the collection and presentation of facts about what is happening inside the country.  Writing on Vedomosti, Ilya Klishin takes a closer look at the complex picture of state media in Russia today (with a hasty English translation from us).

It is impossible to “clean up” the Russian media to ensure their complete loyalty.

By Ilya Klishin

The defamation of the media as an institution will only lead to a devaluation of official information and more value to rumors of dissent. Putin’s government (in the broadest sense) behaves as an occupier in a territory it has recently captured from the Internet and media.

Like in an occupation, communication is being controlled, garrisons are hosted loyal websites, the former communication infrastructure has been partially destroyed and partially rebuilt. Disperse guerrilla groups will be trimmed next. Putin seized control over the highest positions in the media during his first term, but his government’s trimming of small and mostly online publications had begun now as a response to the rallies for fair elections. Prior to that, these media sources were left untouched, apparently because they had a limited audience and therefore were not able to do serious damage. In some cases, media outlets have been closed entirely, while other journalists have been dismissed as inconvenient. Some media have been sold or reorganized, which helped to keep the gun pointing at their heads, that is, to transform them into a passively controlled mode.

Until 2011, the Internet was not a serious priority for the Russian authorities, except in certain cases of administrative bungling and rather pointless reminders on the presidential administration’s wages. The succession of restrictive laws passed between 2012-2013 systematically created a new phenomenon of blacklisted sites compiled by Roscomnadzor. These laws resulted in creating a legal basis for blocking any web page for a short time: though it is not about total censorship, but about manual control.

The blacklist allows denying access to specific pages on popular foreign social networks – Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, which only recently were tested by the Russian authorities. The events around “VK” (Vkontakte) resemble an attempt to subdue the social network by means of the “second hand.”

All this, as I said, looks like punitive actions of the occupying forces in the territory of the “media-partisans,” who, for some reason, were unable to organize mass protests. However, regarding a total “clean-up” of this space: it is obvious that now, during a relatively peaceful time, repression has reached its limit and stalled.

In the event of a new crisis situation, for example, during the upcoming 2014-2015 Moscow elections, we can expect further tightening of control: independent media may be crushed, “foreign social media” (as foreign agents) may be blocked or severely restricted, pages with “extremist” content, i.e. political content, may be massively blocked, political calls on the Internet may be criminalized, some individuals and businesses (IP-addresses) may be disconnected from the Internet.

All this is a direct and logical continuation of the current government model of behavior towards the media and Internet. Those who conduct the current repression and plan the future with their straightforward logic will believe that they cannot allow things to go back to the way they were. According to their ideas, the government should have full power to prevent attempts to initiate and spread information that is viewed as disruptive to the government. They plan to prevent the preparation of any opposition activities at the planning stage and to intimidate individual users.

In fact, such repressive tactics will have the opposite effect. Discrediting the media as an institution will also lead to a devaluation of official information and give more value to rumors of dissent. This will include information that is not verified and that is disseminated by “witnesses” through blogs. Conspiracy will replace open discussion. Those who seek to express their views will use tactics like constantly changing locations, using dynamic addresses and employing encrypted communication protocols. The popular perception of the value of agitation and participation in street protests will increase dramatically (remember the atmosphere of silence about the protests in early December 2011). Similarly, cutting off access to the Internet or restricting access to social networking sites will backfire. Ultimately it will lead to radicalization of youth that cannot imagine their lives without social networks. Once Mubarak ordered the shut down of the Internet, the number of protesters greatly multiplied.

One can destroy a dozen media outlets and put any number of bloggers in prisons, but it is impossible to fully “clean up” the Russian media, or especially, the Internet. There is no Chief General of the Internet who can be taken a prisoner. The Internet has a complex multi-level horizontal structure; and every kick, as in martial arts, can be turned against the striker. A winner of the eighth dan in judo could tell you that.

http://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/news/11869061/na_zahvachennoj_territorii#ixzz2TKRC0RFW