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NL West Notes: Rockies, Padres, Ayala

Ben Nicholson-Smith — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 20:24:57 +0000

Matt Kemp's $160MM extension stands out as the largest financial commitment made by any NL West team so far this offseason and Michael Cuddyer's three-year, $31.5MM contract with the Rockies checks in as the biggest free agent deal signed by one of the NL West teams. Here are the latest links from the division...

Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd told Troy Renck of the Denver Post that he expects his club to improve in 2012, but doesn’t expect any one player to radically alter the team’s chances of winning. “Overall, we don't think anyone we signed or traded for is going to sprinkle pixie dust on our issues or make them go away,” O’Dowd said. “That has to happen internally with us doing things the right way consistently."
Padres president Tom Garfinkel said on XX1090 in San Diego that the reported terms of the team’s upcoming TV deal are too high, MLB.com’s Corey Brock tweets. USA Today reported yesterday that the Padres are poised to sign a 20-year deal worth $75MM annually.
Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio and ESPN.com adds the Giants and Rangers to the list of teams that had interest in Luis Ayala before the right-hander agreed to terms with the Orioles (Twitter link).

Can Greg Holland Repeat His Great Season?

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 20:15:45 +0000

There were only a handful of relievers who pitched as well or better than Greg Holland did over the course of last season. He was one of just seven two win pitchers, and could have finished near the top of the league had he not thrown 21.2 innings at triple-A.

Holland is more-or-less a classic two pitch reliever, but he relies more on his slider than most of his peers. According to his Brooks Baseball player card, he threw his slider on 42% of his pitches last year compared to the 50% rate that he threw his fastball, which is a rather high slider to fastball ratio. In generating an astonishing 30% whiff rate even with such a high frequency, his PITCHf/x slider value of 12.2 ranked second in the league behind only Mike Adams.

Not surprisingly, Holland went to his slider much more frequently than his fastball in one and two strike counts. Getting ahead with his high velocity fastball then moving to the top notch slider provided great dividends for Holland and any fantasy owners last year. His contact percentage was third to only Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, the top two strikeout arms in the league.

While Holland’s first 18.2 inning Major League stint in 2010 was not quite as impressive, he still kept the strikeouts at a nearly identical level. Holland toned his walks down last season, though his walk per nine ratio of 2.85 was the lowest it has ever been at any level. That leads reason to believe it will rise, but Holland should still remain a very productive reliever even with an uptick in walks. Another positive in Holland’s favor is that he performed better against left-handers than right-handers — he sported a 1.33 FIP against lefties and a 2.85 FIP against righties. That may not continue at the same rate, but success against left-handers at that level is a good sign for the future.

A 2.21 FIP is hard for any pitcher to sustain, as is a 1.80 ERA. Even so, the stellar whiff rate and velocity of Holland’s slider should leave him in the upper echelon of relievers this season. Even though Joakim Soria is the mainstay in the closer role, Holland has ample value as the final reliever on a roster. In holds leagues, Holland should be one of the first relievers targeted.

There is always the chance that Soria is traded, which could push the 26-year-old into the ninth inning, where he would immediately be at worst a tier three closer. Even if Soria stays, adding 100 strikeouts with a WHIP around 1.00 and an ERA in the 2.00’s should stabilize a roto staff as well as any other non-closer could.

While Holland’s performance will likely regress due to the expected increase in walks and rise from last year’s .250 BABIP, he is still a good bet to finish the season in the upper echelon of middle relievers. With at least some possibility of becoming closer eventually, though he would have to battle with former closer Jonathan Broxton if Soria were traded, Holland is a good reliever to draft.

Jonny Venters, for example, had a 2010 campaign similar to Holland’s first full year, and although his walk rate rose and strikeout rate declined the following season, he remained very effective across the board. Holland may not exactly repeat his 2010 season, but he has the ability to consistently be a top level reliever.

RotoAuthority Live Chat

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 20:00:00 +0000

Steve Adams will be online at 4pm CST to answer your fantasy baseball questions. Click here to submit your questions ahead of time!

Extensions That Don't Extend Team Control

Ben Nicholson-Smith — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 19:34:16 +0000

Major League teams have agreed to 20 offseason extensions so far this winter, as MLBTR's Extension Tracker shows. Nine of those extensions -- almost half of them -- didn't extend the teams' control over the players with options or additional guaranteed years. Here's a closer look (click on team names for MLBTR's post on each extension):

Deals Covering Two Remaining Seasons Of Arbitration Eligibility

Deals Covering First Two Seasons Of Arbitration Eligibility

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Jose Arredondo, Reds

Deals Covering Three Arbitration Seasons

Pablo Sandoval, Giants
Elvis Andrus, Rangers - more on Andrus' deal here

Teams generally covet club options, and some teams, such as the Rays, have made a habit of obtaining multiple options on most or all extensions. Other clubs, such as the Red Sox, have insisted that extensions buy out at least one season of free agent eligibility.

Four teams -- the Giants, Dodgers, Reds and Rangers -- are responsible for eight of the nine offseason extensions that don't extend team control over the player. Those clubs accepted the risk that the players will suffer injuries or perform poorly in exchange for the possibility that they'll meet or exceed expectations on the field and turn out to be bargains.

Deals that don't buy out free agent years and don't include club options can turn out well for the teams, of course. They cap costs and avoid the rarely-pleasant arbitration process. For elite players like Lincecum and Kershaw, the savings could be substantial in 2013. However, the upside is generally limited for teams that commit to multiyear deals without extending club control.

My 50 Round Dynasty Draft: Rounds 20-30

Chris Buckley — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 19:01:26 +0000

Twenty rounds into my dynasty draft and I'm already feeling fatigued. Doing a satellite draft is not easy, especially when it seems like you're never in front of a comp when it's your turn. It's much simpler when you sit down and know the next 3 hours are all about baseball, getting alerts when you're just waking up, eating dinner, or getting ready for bed, make the selection process bothersome at times. But there's no crying in fantasy baseball right? My list of target players has dwindled fast but I'm staying course trying to find the best combination of immediate production and youth. I added some veteran bats last time around which will help me competitive in 2012. As long as I draft 2013 ready talent I should have an easy transition. My pitching corps is thin, as is my list of impact prospects and I'll need to start focusing on that in the coming set. I may reach for reserves but it all plays into the strategy of finding high ceiling-impact prospects in the latter part of the draft while everyone else tries to scrape together a sufficient bench.

Pick 21.1

Ryan Kalish- Maybe I like Kalish a little more than everyone else, it could be that he's from Jersey, or a member of the Red Sox organization, or it just could be his 20+/20+ potential, that's the most logical explanation so we'll go with that. I was excited when Reddick was dealt, as it meant Kalish had a clear path to the opening day RF job. This selection was a little untimely, as the news broke right arond this time that he would be out for the first 3 months of the season, so much for my expectations. I still see him as the long term answer in RF, combining speed and power while hitting for a decent average. The combination of him and Trout at their peak performance would give me an edge over most outfield combinations, regardless of who the third is, that is assuming the shoulder and neck injuries do not have any long lasting effects on his power. If I could do this over though I would've taken Bell.

Other Players Considered:
Josh Bell, Travis Snider

Pick 22.16

Mat Gamel- I love prospects who have seen their star tarnished a bit. The forgotten who have aged out of top 100 lists or dropped a few notches because of a poor showing when rushed to the major leagues, those are the type of players to target at this stage of any draft and Gamel fits perfectly. He should be more comfortable playing first as third base was never really his position. With less pressure this time around I can see him being a successful low end first baseman in 2012. I certainly don't expect Matt Laporta like futility. I am not sure how he is listed currently but if he is still set in the systems as a 3rd baseman that added eligibility would easily raise his value.
Other Players Considered: Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy

Pick 23.1

James McDonald- I even surprised myself with this selection. I didn't like a lot of the starting pitching options left and I've always liked McDonald from his days in the Dodgers organization. NL Central pitchers should have an easier time sleeping this season, no Braun for first 50 games, no Fielder, no Pujols. I normally wouldn't take a pitcher on a team known for losing, but if the Pirates are to break that trend, now is as good of a time as any. By default McDonald is the fantasy ace of their staff, and with rosters this deep no one can be counted out. I like for him to improve on his ERA and WHIP this season, the strikeouts should increase as well. Essentially, I see McDonald helping more than people would expect. He's a true sleeper candidate in my book, I'm not projecting top 25 performance but I believe he'll surprise many owners this coming season.
Other Player Considered: Brad Boxberger, Jaun Nicasio, Jeff Niemann, Jake McGee

Pick 24.16

Jason Kubel- The move away from Target Field is addition by subtraction, so based on that alone Kubel should be more productive next season. I really like him in Arizona, and he was the outfielder I had in mind when looking for a back up to Beltran. Kubel could really thrive this upcoming season, with a move to the National League and a better hitter's park. Looking at some rosters, Kubel could be a starter so depending on where Trout begins the year, I could have a trade chip in Kubel.
Other Players Considered: Alex Presley, Ross Detwiler, Hak-Ju Lee

Pick 25.1
Alex Cobb- I'm a big fan of Cobb and if he was guaranteed a rotation spot I would've selected him much higher. He's first in line should any pitcher go down with an injury or be traded, and even though he's not in the opening day rotation, I still project a substantial amount of MLB innings this coming year. I expect him to be the number 5 guy heading into 2013. In selecting Cobb I kept true to form, taking a young player who may not have the ceiling of some players that are available but he will undoubtedly arrive and contribute much quicker.
Other Players Considered:
Alex Presley, Yasmani Grandal, Deck McGwire

Pick 26.16
Matt Barnes- Now it's time for me to mix and match. I need to add some prospect depth but I want the best combination of ceiling and MLB readiness available. I've been itching to take Barnes since around the 18th, actually it was since I saw Anthony Ranaudo go off the board. I couldn't have been more thrilled about Barnes dropping to the Sox at 19 in this past year's draft. I like his stuff more than some of the pitchers that went in front of him, and since he's a college arm the adjustment to professional ball should be shorter. Since I prefer Barnes to Ranaudo, this was an absolute steal.
Other Players Considered: Chris Volstad, Brennan Boesch, Jordan Lyles

Pick 27.1
Jonathan Lucroy- More young depth for me who could be a starter on a lot of teams. He gives me pretty good protection should something happen to Ramos and at 25 he has value going forward. When drafting my depth, I try to find players who offer similar production to the starter therefore making an easy transition should injury happen. Lucroy gives me a solid back up, and I'm positive I'll be able to exploit a catcher injury and turn Lucroy into a valuable prospect.
Other Players Considered: Jordan Lyles, Andy Dirks, Taylor Guerrieri

Pick 28.16
Cheslor Cuthbert- See what I mean about waiting on prospects? I got Cuthbert in the same round as Torii Hunter, Bret Myers, and Angel Pagan. Maybe he's under the radar to some degree, maybe owners have the same positional concerns that I do, but there's a huge Royals fan in here and that team has scooped up quite a few of KC's young stars, a deal is just waiting to happen. I've got a couple more highly rated prospects on the radar then it's back to the bench depth, we'll see if these guys are still around by the time this set of ten is done.
Other Players Considered: Francisco Lindor, Hector Noesi

Pick 29.1

Nestor Molina- Kenny Williams said Molina could see time at the back end of the pen this year, given their recent trades and the uncertainty with the usual suspects, he could be a nice source for some K's and holds come mid-season. I pretty much new after Cuthber that I was going to take one of Lindor or Molina. Given all the hype surrounding him during the time of the Sergio Santos trade, I would've expected him to go much earlier. There's some risk with this pick, as he might not really be a starter long term, this is an important year in his development so I'll be paying especially close attention to his coming season.
Other Players Considered: Francisco Lindor

*I made a trade with the team drafting last to swap picks from here on out. I get his pick in all odd numbered rounds, he gets the evens. Wish I would've though of this sooner, at the beginning perhaps.

Pick 29.16
Gary Sanchez- So my plan worked out, Molina and Sanchez were the two young high upside prospects I was hoping to get. I wouldn't have got Sanchez without pulling off this latest swap, as someone made the mistake of trying to draft him 5 picks later. I know there are maturity issues, that's normal and not an area of concern. He is said to have a higher ceiling than Montero, with a greater probability to stick at catcher, thus making him a more valuable fantasy contributor should everything break the right way. I can certainly wait for his development since I have Ramos at the MLB level and when he does get closer to the majors it makes one of the two even more expendable, should they both be rostered at that point.

This latest set of 10 was a solid mixture of young depth and high ceiling prospects, well except for Kalish. I'm 30 rounds in, and I am now ready to make my first selection for a relief pitcher! If he's there I'll be taking Glen Perkins from Minnesota. He looked pretty good in the bullpen role last year, and since Matt Capps is not the epitome of consistency, he could move into the closing role if/when Capps struggles. Or I could take Luke Gregerson giving me the other probable San Diego set up man. The plan for the next twenty rounds is to make sure I have a quality back up at ever starting position and to continue building prospect depth. I'd like to select 3 sure fire set up men and another 2-3 starting pitchers, as well as a middle infielder who will have multi position eligibility but none of that is guaranteed. The prospects should continue to fall into my lap as players reach for veterans to plug holes and fill depth.

Rounds 1-10

Rounds 11-20

#Update: Remember that KC fan I mentioned? I moved Cuthbert for Javier Baez and a draft pick. I approached Ray about a Cuthbert/Baez comp and he sent me some pieces from Jason Parks and others. While Law loves Cuthbert, it appears others also have questions about his thick lower body and what that can mean for his defense going forward. Not to mention Baez is said to be talented and athletic enough to play almost any position on the field. I like this deal for me, he has the arm to stay at SS, all depends on how much he grows between now and his debut. He very well could arrive at the same time as Cuthbert too, maybe even sooner, depending on the adjustments he makes to his approach of course.

Justin Verlander, 2012 Fantasy Schmohawk

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 19:00:35 +0000

I was listening to this song:

Just as I was looking at recent mocks for 2012 fantasy baseball drafts. Every time I heard the chorus, I saw Justin Verlander‘s name in the top ten. Only I didn’t hear the words. I heard… Fail! Blame it on his ADP, baby! Fail! Fail! Fail! Fail! Fail! Maybe I’m a different breed! Maybe I’m not listening! So blame it on his ADP, baby! Fail! Fail! Fail! Fail! Fail! And I wasn’t even stoned (I don’t think so, at least). When the song was over, I played Neil Diamond on repeat for 3 hours to clear my head of that song and I started thinking, am I missing something? Or s-thing, if you’re in a time crunch. Right now Verlander’s ADP is at 9 overall. He’s being drafted as high as 2 overall. I give this a little leeway because I do think some people mock draft like they would never really draft just to see what a team would look like with a pitcher in the first round. I’ll give you a hint. Your team will look terrible.

This isn’t even about Verlander, though I don’t think he repeats his numbers from last year. This isn’t even about him being drafted before Halladay or Kershaw, which I think is slightly crummy with crackers. This is more about your team with a pitcher in the first or even 2nd round. You can’t make up the missing offense without some luck. You don’t want to count on luck, especially if it’s as indecipherable as done by David Milch. Say you draft Verlander and David Wright (who is about 20 picks away from Verlander, so he’d be around for your 2nd pick) and someone else drafts Prince and Longoria. Then you have 25-ish homers and 15-ish steals from Wright in a good year and a number one starter. The other guy has 60-ish homers and 10-ish steals and drafts Dan Haren four rounds later. I’m ignoring wins, as you should, but between Haren and Verlander you’re missing 50 Ks and ~.50 ERA and ~.04 WHIP. Basically what you’re getting from any halfway decent reliever. If you say, “Well, Grey, with all due respect to your mustache, I’ll grab a 1st baseman where you’re taking Haren.” Okay, you’re drafting Napoli or Konerko. Now, be honest, do you trust Napoli and Konerko compared to Prince the same way you trust Haren compared to Verlander? Fail! Fail! Fail! Fail! Fail! (BTW, that isn’t the official video, but who can resist a girl fight? I can’t; no apologies.)

Indians, Asdrubal Cabrera Avoid Arbitration

Ben Nicholson-Smith — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 19:00:18 +0000

The Indians announced that they avoided arbitration with Asdrubal Cabrera, agreeing to terms on a one-year deal for 2012. Octagon represents the shortstop, who will earn $4.55MM in 2012, according to MLB.com's Jordan Bastian (Twitter link).

Cabrera had filed for $5.2MM, while the Indians had countered with a $3.75MM submission, as MLBTR's Arbitration Tracker shows. The Indians have discussed a multiyear extension with Cabrera, who will remain under team control through 2013. Earlier in the offseason, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes suggested a four-year, $27MM deal could work for both sides.

The Indians have now signed all arbitration eligible players for 2012, so their streak of avoiding arbitration hearings continues. The club's last hearing took place in 1991.

Orioles To Sign Luis Ayala

Ben Nicholson-Smith — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 18:53:00 +0000

The Orioles have agreed to sign Luis Ayala to a one-year, $925K deal that is pending a physical. The deal includes a $1MM team option for 2013 ($100K buyout). Ayala has a base salary of $825K in 2012 and could earn more by reaching incentives. The Orioles will have to clear 40-man roster space for the Paragon Sports International client.

Ayala, 34, posted a 2.09 ERA with 6.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 50% ground ball rate in 56 innings for the Yankees last year. The Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, Angels, Mets and Tigers were all linked to him earlier in the offseason.

Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com first reported the agreement and Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun added the terms. Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports and MLBTR added detail (Twitter links).

A's Notes: Ramirez, Ordonez, Matsui, Uehara

Ben Nicholson-Smith — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 18:52:00 +0000

The A's agreed to extend GM Billy Beane through 2019 this week, but the offseason hasn't quite ended, so it's time to look ahead to Beane's next move. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and others have the details on the team's plans...

A's scouts saw Ramirez work out recently and they're interested, ESPN.com's Buster Olney confirms (Twitter link). A final decision on whether to try to sign him is expected within the next week.
The A's continue pursuing Manny Ramirez and they're much more interested in him than Magglio Ordonez. Ordonez's health is more of a concern, Slusser writes. Signing Ramirez would be the last thing the A's do before starting Spring Training, and a deal could be reached after camp opens.
People in the A's organization are intrigued by Kila Ka'aihue's power and if the A's sign Ramirez, Ka'aihue would likely get the chance to DH while Ramirez sits out his 50-game suspension.
The A's have some interest in free agent DH Hideki Matsui, but he's a "real long-shot," Slusser reports. They've had some talks about Johnny Damon, who might be out of the team's price range.
The A's are considering Koji Uehara, Slusser confirms. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney says “nothing is close” regarding Uehara and that the Rangers are looking to obtain a good return in talks with Baltimore (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal reported Oakland's interest over the weekend.

Yankees, Pirates Talking A.J. Burnett Trade

Ben Nicholson-Smith — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 18:34:00 +0000

12:34pm: There seems to be a fair amount of optimism about a deal, Heyman tweets.

10:28am: The Pirates haven't yet offered to pay $10MM of the $33MM remaining on Burnett's contract, Heyman tweets.

7:57am: The Yankees and Pirates continue discussing a possible A.J. Burnett trade, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. The Yankees are willing to pay a substantial portion of the $33MM remaining on the right-hander’s contract through 2013, but the teams are still a few million apart. The Yankees first asked the Pirates to pay well over $11MM, Heyman writes.

The Yankees want to create payroll room for a designated hitter and appear to be leaning toward Raul Ibanez, perhaps because they prefer his ability to play the outfield. Johnny Damon and Eric Chavez also intrigue the Yankees as possible free agent additions, according to Heyman. The Pirates rejected the Yankees’ request for Garrett Jones, Heyman writes.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Burnett’s no-trade list includes all of the teams on the West Coast (Twitter links). Sherman expects the Yankees to trade Burnett before Spring Training and suggests the team is waiting to see if the Pirates or another club offers to absorb more money.

2012 Draft Prep: 12-team, mixed H2H draft

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 18:27:00 +0000

Which picks stood out in our initial 12-team Head-to-Head mock draft for 2012? Check out the results and read what Scott White has to say about some of the more interesting selections.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Hamilton, Tigers, Guthrie

Mike Axisa — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 17:55:00 +0000

Six years ago today, the Nationals beat Alfonso Soriano in their arbitration hearing after acquiring him from the Rangers. Despite the loss, his $10MM payout set a record for the largest salary ever awarded via arbitration, surpassing the $8.2MM Andruw Jones received in 2001. Soriano had filed for $12MM, and his record has since been broken a few times over. Here's the latest from around the baseball blogosphere...

Padres Prospects interviewed Joe Wieland, who was part of the Mike Adams trade.
Giants Nirvana published a collection of interviews from Giants media day.
Yankees Fans Unite interviewed Maury Brown of The Biz of Baseball.
Baseball Time In Arlington doesn't think Josh Hamilton's relapse will impact his leverage in contract extension talks.
Bless You Boys looked at how Prince Fielder could lead to Yoenis Cespedes in Detroit.
Why Won't The Tigers Hire Me? wonders if the Tigers are America's team.
Camden Crazies says the Jeremy Guthrie trade is a mild win for the Orioles.
The Nats Blog broke down Gio Gonzalez's performance away from Oakland.
Marlin Maniac believes Anibal Sanchez deserves a contract extension.
More Mariners thinks either Jesus Montero or Dustin Ackley should get an extension.
Brotherly Glove doesn't think the Phillies should swap Joe Blanton with Roy Oswalt.
BoSox Injection wonders if the Red Sox really need Oswalt.
Redbird Rants says the Cardinals and Oswalt need each other.
I-70 Baseball says infield depth is a problem for the Cardinals.
Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? analyzed Charlie Morton's approaches.
Did The Tribe Win Last Night? looked at what could land Lonnie Chisenhall in Triple-A.
Indians Prospect Insider says not to worry about Cleveland's lefty heavy lineup.
Talkin' Sox with Dan explains why Bobby Valentine was the right guy for the Red Sox.
The Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan wrote about the Athletics first base and DH situation.
Baseball Reality Tour looked at some questions the Braves have to answer.
Steel World Order posted an eight-part preview of the Pirates season.
Lasorda's Lair revisited the Blake Hawksworth-Ryan Theriot trade.
MLB Draft Insider conducted a 2006 redraft.
Infield Shift tells you why you should start following college baseball.
Pinstripes Alley played a game of prospect roulette.
Seedlings to Stars listed the Twins top prospects.
A's Farm compiled a consensus top ten Athletics prospects list.
MLB Reports wonders if rosters should be expanded to 26 players.

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here. Only one email per week, please.

2012 Team-by-Team Fantasy Outlooks

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 17:29:00 +0000

Our Scott White and Al Melchior will break down every major league team for Fantasy owners leading up to Draft Day. We'll be sure to link up the teams as quickly as they can turn them around. Check back frequently for more outlooks!

2012 Rotoprofessor Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide – Second Update Released (1st Prospect Lists Included)!

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 17:25:00 +0000

The second update of the 2012 Rotoprofessor Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide has officially been released! If you have already ordered the guide and not received it, please let me know via e-mail (eric.stashin@gmail.com). As always, you will then receive updates about every two-to-three weeks from the release date until the start of the season.

I have added a column labeled “Projected Round” to the Top 300, which is based on the current ADP from around the internet (and will be updated throughout the draft season). This should help you identify the players who I feel are great bargains (i.e. someone who I have ranked at #40 but is being drafted around rounds 6-9) or those who are being overdrafted (i.e. someone who I have ranked at #77 but is being drafted around rounds 3-5). Keep in mind that the rounds listed are a rough estimate and can vary wildly from draft-to-draft. Also included:

Over 500 player projections (more to come)
The Rotoprofessor’s quick take on every player projected
Expanded Rankings (i.e. Top 30 Catchers, Top 100 Starting Pitchers)
Top 300 Overall
Projected lineups and rotations
Top 50 Prospects for 2012 list (on the website, I will only be releasing a Top 20 list)
Top 5 Prospects for 2012 by team (New for 2012)
Auction Values (including NL/AL-Only)
Multiple Position Eligibility Chart
And more

This season I wanted to do something a little bit different for those who support Rotoprofessor and who are purchasing the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. So, as a reward, anyone who purchases the guide prior to March 15 will be entered into a very special contest where one randomly selected purchaser will win an autographed Michael Pineda baseball (authenticated by MLB). There is nothing that you need to do but buy the guide and cross your fingers that you win! The winner will be picked on March 15th and will be notified via e-mail. If I don’t hear back within 24 hours, a new winner will be picked. Shipment MAY be delayed a few days if my wife has our baby boy earlier than expected.

You can order the guide now for just $6. Please allow up to 24 hours for delivery via e-mail.

Eno Sarris Pan FanGraphs Chat

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 17:15:20 +0000

Come by to talk fantasy or real baseball. Beer and sandwich talk is always welcome.

FanGraphs Chat

Minor League Keeper Thoughts: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Jason Hunt — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 17:00:14 +0000

So far, we've looked at 13 of the systems in the Majors, and seen some good and some not-so-good. The goal with each team I look at is to discuss a few players who are likely to have an impact in the Majors in 2012, a few who could be ready by the start of 2014, and a few more who are a long ways away, but could be interesting as well. You can find links to the previous teams below:

Houston Astros | Minnesota Twins | Seattle Mariners | Baltimore Orioles

Kansas City Royals | Chicago Cubs | San Diego Padres | Pittsburgh Pirates | Colorado Rockies

Cleveland Indians | Chicago White Sox | Detroit Tigers | Oakland Athletics

Overview

It's hard not to like a system that has the top prospect overall, but there's a lot of question marks after Mike Trout. You have a shortstop prospect who missed a majority of the 2011 season, but stayed in one top 50 in spite of that fact. There's a third base prospect drafted a couple years ago who won't likely be ready for a few more years. Overall, the system has graduated a fair amount of players in the past few seasons, and they will look to improve under new general manager Jerry DiPoto.

2011 Graduates

Jordan Walden, Tyler Chatwood (now with Colorado), Mark Trumbo, Hank Conger

Ready in 2012

Mike Trout

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	17	ANA-min	Rk,A	44	30	63	7	7	1	25	13	2	22	34	.352	.419	.486	.905
2010	18	ANA-min	A,A+	131	106	173	28	9	10	58	56	15	73	85	.341	.428	.490	.918
2011	19	ANA-min	AA	91	82	115	18	13	11	38	33	10	45	76	.326	.414	.544	.958
2011	19	LAA	AL	40	20	27	6	0	5	16	4	0	9	30	.220	.281	.390	.672

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/9/2012.

You know the name. You've seen him at either the #1 or #2 spot in nearly every top 100 list that has come out. Trout is the reminder that the players in the draft aren't always taken in order of potential skill level. Trout may have been slightly overlooked by teams coming into the draft due to being from New Jersey, not exactly a hotbed of high school baseball. But Trout has already shown that he's likely to be a top-flight outfielder and top-flight overall fantasy provider for years to come. In 40 games last year for the Angels, he hit 5 homers and stole 4 bases. At age 19. What else really is there to say about Trout? He looks like he could be a top 10 overall player in his prime, hitting for a high average, solid power, with solid speed and a lot of runs scored. For 2012, he will likely start the season in AAA due to the logjam that is the outfield for the Angels, but it's extremely likely at some point during the season that his performance will dictate moving him up to Anaheim. Honestly, if he's available in your dynasty league, I'd start questioning the other owners after I picked him up.

Garrett Richards

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	ERA	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	21	ANA-min	Rk	3	1	1.53	35.1	37	6	6	0	4	30	1.160	9.4	0.0	1.0	7.6	7.50	ORM · PION
2010	22	ANA-min	A,A+	12	5	3.52	143.0	130	65	56	10	43	149	1.210	8.2	0.6	2.7	9.4	3.47	CDR,RCU · MIDW,CALL
2011	23	ANA-min	AA	12	2	3.15	143.0	123	58	50	10	40	103	1.140	7.7	0.6	2.5	6.5	2.58	ARK · TL
2011	23	LAA	AL	0	2	5.79	14.0	16	11	9	4	7	9	1.643	10.3	2.6	4.5	5.8	1.29

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/9/2012.

Richards pitched well enough in AA during the 2011 season to earn himself a callup at the end of the season. He was able to repeat most of his performance from the 2010 season while moving up to AA. The only number that really concerns me was his drop in strikeout rate (from 9.4 K/9 in 2010 to 6.5 K/9 in 2011). Here's what Al Skorupa of Bullpen Banter had to say about Richards as a part of their top 15 prospects:

Garrett Richards has some front line stuff and velocity. The problem is his mechanics aren't smooth or consistent and his arm action isn't pretty. This leads to poor command, inconsistent release points and pitches left up. I've seen a lot of questions about why Richards isn't striking out more guys... a lot of it goes back to his mechanics and delivery. His command and execution of his pitches isn't quite there but hitters are still unable to do much because his raw stuff is just so good. If Richards can clean up his flaws the sky is the ceiling, but he could still be an effective starter even if he doesn't. If he really falls apart he could be a late inning reliever.

Richards seems likely to be back at AAA to start the 2012 season, and if he has a good year in Salt Lake City could be in Anaheim to stay by September. I'd like to see his walk rate drop or his strikeout rate improve as well, but I think he'll be the 5th starter for the team fro the 2013 season.

Could Be Ready by 2014

Jean Segura

Year	Age	Lg	Lev	G	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007	17	DOSL	FRk	61	39	71	5	2	2	31	22	6	22	28	.324	.392	.393	.785
2008	18	ARIZ	Rk	11	13	9	0	0	0	4	1	0	6	5	.250	.372	.250	.622
2009	19	PION	Rk	36	33	56	10	4	3	21	11	3	11	11	.346	.392	.512	.904
2009	19	PCL	AAA	7	2	8	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	4	.421	.421	.526	.947
2010	20	MIDW	A	130	89	161	24	12	10	79	50	10	45	72	.313	.365	.464	.829
2011	21	ARIZ	Rk	8	5	11	4	0	1	5	0	0	0	3	.367	.367	.600	.967
2011	21	CALL	A+	44	26	52	9	4	3	21	18	6	15	26	.281	.337	.422	.758

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/9/2012.

Segura emerged as a name on top prospect lists after his 2010 season, where he hit 10 home runs, stole 50 bases, and a .313 batting average in the Midwest League. In addition to being promoted for the 2011 season, Segura was also moved from second base to shortstop. However, he missed a majority of the season due to hamstring injuries, and is likely to repeat High-A in the 2012 season. Here's what Nathaniel Stoltz had to say about Segura:

He projects as a player who can hit nearly .300 with some walks and doubles while contributing in the speed-and-defense areas. His skillset should translate well to the upper levels, since he has shown the ability to make good contact, he has some control of the strike zone, and he has enough power that he won’t be exposed by upper-level pitching.

I am a big fan of Segura, as a middle infielder who can hit 7-10 homers a season along with a high batting average and 30+ stolen bases will be extremely valuable for fantasy purposes. I think he'll likely be in AA before the end of the 2012 season, and could be in the bigs by the end of 2013.

John Hellweg

Year	Age	Lg	Lev	W	L	ERA	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	19	ARIZ	Rk	1	0	4.98	21.2	19	28	12	1	38	25	2.631	7.9	0.4	15.8	10.4	0.66
2009	20	ARIZ	Rk	2	1	2.96	24.1	16	8	8	0	8	25	0.986	5.9	0.0	3.0	9.2	3.13
2009	20	MIDW	A	0	0	1.35	6.2	4	3	1	0	7	7	1.650	5.4	0.0	9.4	9.4	1.00
2010	21	MIDW	A	2	4	4.33	43.2	20	21	21	2	45	66	1.489	4.1	0.4	9.3	13.6	1.47
2011	22	CALL	A+	6	4	3.73	89.1	75	43	37	2	59	113	1.500	7.6	0.2	5.9	11.4	1.92

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/9/2012.

Hellweg had spent his career as a middling (at best) relief prospect until being converted to the starting rotation during the 2011 season. And it all appears to have clicked for Hellweg. Here's what Keith Law had to say about Hellweg as a part of his top 100 prospects list:

He'll pitch at 97-98 mph with a hard curveball that also misses bats, although his changeup at 91-92 is more like a BP fastball at this point because it doesn't have much action.
He's huge -- 6-foot-9 and 210 pounds -- and despite a fair degree of athleticism has had trouble keeping his delivery in sync, although he's been better at that as a starter, which allows him more time to work it out.

Realistically, Hellweg has only been a starting pitcher for most of a season, and the 2012 season will be a big test as to whether or not he can be a big league starting pitcher. Here's how Marc Hulet of Fangraphs views his future:

Even if he doesn’t stick in the rotation – a big ‘if’ if he cannot improve his control – the pitcher will benefit from the extra innings needed to hone the command of his pitches. He may never command the ball well enough to be a starter or even a closer, but he could see duty as a high-leverage reliever in the eighth inning.

Long-Term Prospects (Might Not Be Ready until 2015 at least)

Kaleb Cowart

Year	Age	Lg	Lev	G	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2010	18	ARIZ	Rk	6	0	3	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	6	.143	.136	.143	.279
2010	18	PION	Rk	1	1	2	0	0	1	3	0	0	1	2	.400	.500	1.000	1.500
2011	19	PION	Rk	72	49	80	12	3	7	40	11	4	25	81	.283	.345	.420	.765

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/9/2012.

The Angels' top draft pick from the 2010 draft, Cowart was considered a high draft prospect both as a position player and as a pitcher. The Angels drafted him as a 3B, and 2011 was his first full season of professional ball. He showed solid across the board production on offense last year, hitting 7 homers, stealing 11 bases, and batting .283 in just 72 games. The one part of his game I am a bit concerned with is his strikeout rate, as he struck out 1 out of every 4 plate appearances last year. Here's what Marc Hulet of Fangraphs had to say about him:

He’s shown enough signs of progress with the bat that there is little pressure at this point to put him back on the mound. If everything clicks, Cowart has the potential to develop into a No. 3 hitter with a solid all-around game. He probably won’t be a slugger; a 20-25 home run output with full-time playing time is probably realistic.

Cowart remains a long way away, but he will be just 20 years old during the 2012 seasons, and I think he could jump a lot of rankings if he can produce in his assignment in 2012. Realistically, I believe he will start the season in Low-A, which would put him on pace (at a year per level) to get to the bigs after 2015.

C.J. Cron

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB
2011	21	Orem	PION	Rk	LAA	34	159	143	30	44	5	1	13	41	0	0	10	34	.308	.371	.629	1.000	90	2	5	0	1	1
1 Season						34	159	143	30	44	5	1	13	41	0	0	10	34	.308	.371	.629	1.000	90	2	5	0	1	1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/9/2012.

The Angels top draft pick last year, Cron signed early and proceeded to tear up the Pioneer League. He hit 13 home runs and batted .308 in just 34 games before an injury ended his season. Here's what John Sickels had to say about Cron:

I want to see his bat outside the easy-offense Pioneer League. It didn't impact his production, but his plate discipline wasn't as good as it was in college, and he's not much of a fielder. He should still mash his way to the majors fairly quickly.

If Cron can come back from his injury in good shape, I could see the team assigning him to their High-A affiliate in the California League to start the year. I agree that he'll likely show that he's ready in quick order, but I'm a tiny bit concerned about where he'll fit long-term for the Angels. The impression I have from some of the other scouting reports is that he's unlikely to play a position other than 1B long-term, so he could be relegated to DH only with Albert Pujols in town. Either way, that's a problem that can be dealt with in the future. He could turn into a solid power producer once he gets to the bigs, but I also want to see his plate discipline improve by then.

Regular MLBTR Features

Ben Nicholson-Smith — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 17:00:00 +0000

If you're a regular MLBTR reader, you'll be familiar with our chats, our Week In Review posts and Mike Axisa's Baseball Blogs Weigh In feature. Here's some more detail on when you'll see our weekly features and exactly what to expect from them:

MLBTR Chats - Come by every Wednesday at 2pm CDT to chat about the latest trades, signings and rumblings around the Major Leagues.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In - Every Friday morning, Mike Axisa directs you to some of the best writing on baseball blogs around the web. Whether it's opinion, stats or something else entirely, you can connect to the best of the blogosphere once a week on MLBTR. If you want to send Mike a post of yours, reach him at: mike@riveraveblues.com.
Week In Review - It's remarkable how much happens in seven days. Every Sunday night, we summarize the week's biggest stories in our Week In Review posts.
MLBTR Originals - We gather all our original analysis and reporting in one place every Sunday night.

Cardinals Sign Dominican Prospect Serrano

Ben Nicholson-Smith — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 15:41:10 +0000

The Cardinals signed Dominican right-hander Andres Serrano for $750K, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. The agreement, which dates back to October, is still pending an MLB investigation into the prospect’s age and identity.

The 17-year-old Serrano stands 6’3” and has a fastball that clocks in from 90-95 mph. He also has a curveball and change-up, Badler reports. The bonus would be the highest of 2011 for a pitcher from the Dominican, assuming MLB approves the deal.

Fool's Gold: The Ian Kennedy Story

bretsayre — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 15:01:06 +0000

Hey, good to see you again -- welcome to the first of my Friday posts focused on starting pitching. Once the season actually gets going, this will be where I'll post my "Ahead of the Curve" column. If you want to know more about what that will look like, I posted a sneak preview of it a few weeks back at Roto Hardball. In the meantime, I'm going to dig into the SP rankings here at Fake Teams and respectfully disagree with some particular placements. Some weeks will be glowing articles about pitchers I love to sing the praises of. This is not one of those weeks.

Let's get this out of the way first: I don't hate Ian Kennedy. He's never said a bad word to my family and he's never cut me off on the highway. He's never stolen my lunch money and he's never made out with one of my exes (probably). By all accounts, he's a really good guy. And he's got a ginger beard -- which is definitely a top-5 form of facial hair. That's a lot of talk about what Ian Kennedy is, but unfortunately for the rest of the post here, I'm going to focus on what he's not. He's not a top-25 pitcher in fantasy.

Not that there's anything wrong with that. In fact, he's #28 in my starting pitching ranks which makes him a pretty good #3 option in shallower leagues. But at Fake Teams, he's #14 -- and it's anything but an outlier. Mock Draft Central currently has Kennedy going 18th among starters. Tristan Cockcroft at ESPN has him at 16th in his early pre-season rankings. So I guess I'm the weird one here.

If you look at the top 30 or so pitchers in the majors, it's uncommon to find one who was not looked at as at least a potential front-line starter (#1 or solid #2) when he was a prospect. In fact, within the top 30 pitchers being drafted at MDC, I'm seeing either 4 or 5 tops. Here's what Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus said about Ian Kennedy prior to the 2008 season:

The Good: Kennedy's best pitch is a plus-plus changeup that features arm-side deception and late, heavy drop. It worked as an out pitch at every level, including the majors. He sets it up with a fastball that has average velocity at 88-91 mph, but grades up a level because of Kennedy's ability to locate it at will. His curveball is average and effective when he mixes it in.

The Bad: The only real knock against Kennedy is his ceiling. He doesn't have front-end starter's stuff, and projects as no more than a third starter, but the good news is that he's already there. He's a bit on the smallish side, and his fastball can get a bit straight at times.

Goldstein was not alone in this regard, as Kennedy was always more polish than upside. Kennedy was never supposed to be a star, at least not like he showed in his raw stats last season. With that said, I'm fully aware that this was a long time ago and scouting reports are exactly what they are -- highly educated guesses. So let's move chronologically along to see what made him so successful in 2011.

We know the numbers -- 21 wins, 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 198 K's in 222 IP -- and they're really impressive, but are they sustainable? Let's start with the predictive ERA tools. Kennedy's xFIP in 2011 was 3.52, good for 22nd in MLB. His tERA was 3.90, good for 36th in MLB. These are good numbers, but different from the 11th he finished in ERA. The biggest help to his ERA was a strand rate of 79.2%, which was 9th in MLB (the league average was 72.5%). I'm not even going to bother with his win total as that's just not going to happen again. So this leaves us with strikeouts. What bothers me about Kennedy's strikeout rate, which eclipsed 8.0 K/9 for the first time in his career in 2011, is that it doesn't make a whole lot of sense when looked at in tandem with his swinging strike rate. Fortunately for all of us (and me in particular in writing this), fellow new Fake Teams contributor Michael Barr has already looked at this correlation and ranked Kennedy as one of his strikeout outperformers. The link to his piece is here and I implore you to read it, but essentially he says that Kennedy should have had a K/9 rate of closer to 7.1 last season (which would have been approximately 23 fewer K's).

Another factor which needs to be considered is that, while Kennedy played in front of an other worldly defensive OF last season, Jason Kubel is going to be Arizona's new LF. Gerardo Parra, the man he's replacing, was 6th in baseball in UZR. Meanwhile in Minnesota, Kubel was such a great outfielder, that he was primarily the DH (he of the career -41.8 UZR). For a flyball pitcher like Kennedy, this is a difference he will notice.

Like I said earlier, with all this, I still believe Kennedy should be drafted as a top-30 pitcher. His improving walk rate should give a natural ceiling to his WHIP of around 1.25 and two-thirds of his outfield defense (which he relies on heavily) will still be awesome. Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA projections this week for 2012, and they have Kennedy tabbed for 13 wins, 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 179 K's in 208 IP. On the other hand, Bill James has Kennedy's 2012 performance markedly better at 15 wins, 3.24 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 200 K's in 222 IP. I think somewhere between those two predictions is probably about right, though I'd lean closer to PECOTA.

My 2012 Ian Kennedy prediction: 14 wins, 3.52 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 174 K's in 210 IP

Poll

Where are you drafting Ian Kennedy this season?

UFC on Fuel In-Depth Preview: TJ Dillashaw vs. Walel Watson

JustBlogGuy — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 15:00:11 +0000

With the recent addition of a sixth fight to the Fuel broadcast, this bout between TJ Dillashaw and Walel Watson is no longer the first ever main card fight on Fuel, but the stakes for the fighters outside of being the first ever Fuel winner remain the same as both men look to bounce back from difficult defeats in their last outings.

TJ Dillashaw

Dillashaw came into the UFC by way of The Ultimate Fighter 14 where he was picked to be a member of Team Bisping. Training out of the Alpha Male Fight Team, perhaps the strongest camp in the world for lighter weight fighters, Dillashaw is looking to follow in the footsteps of teammates Urijah Faber, Chad Mendes and Joseph Benevidez and prove he is among the best in the business.

Recent Fights

Dillashaw has only five official bouts in his professional career, having wrung up a 4-0 record with three stoppages prior to entering The Ultimate Fighter house. Although Dillshaw was pegged as an early favorite, he rubbed many of his housemates the wrong way when he seemed to do his best to get the easiest possible route to the finale. While a smart way to approach the taxing process of moving through the six-week-long, sixteen fighter bracket, his teammates saw it as ducking. None-the-less, Dillashaw lived up to the hype by racking up three straight wins to earn his spot in the final. Unfortunately for Dillashaw, in the final he took on John Dodson, the man he was accused of dodging, and despite a size advantage over the now-flyweight, Dillashaw was knocked out in under two minutes.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Like many of his Alpha Male counterparts, Dillashaw has a base in wrestling, having attended Division-I Cal. State Fullerton. By getting hitched to such a talented camp, Dillashaw has put himself in prime position to round out the rest of his game, however he is still a work in progress. Although Dillashaw showed the ability in his early fights and his time in the house to outwork and finish lesser opponents, against more skill opposition his best route to victory still remains in dragging his foe to the ground and grinding away to a dominant decision.

Fantasy Impact

Dillashaw will most likely be looking to take this fight to the mat early and often. Once there, Watson has seven submission wins and hasn't been tapped since his debut, so don't look for the American to hit him with anything he hasn't seen on that front. Instead, bank on three rounds of Dillashaw sitting on top of Watson and throwing elbows and punches to earn the unanimous decision. As a -210 favorite, Dillashaw is the type of fighter that is hard to provide any fantasy betting value beyond potentially the lone safe play in a parlay with two large underdogs.

Walel Watson analysis after the jump.

Walel Watson

Watson is slated to make his main card debut in this event. Whether or not that will add any pressure to Watson is anyone's guess, as with this card taking place on Fuel TV, it's not exactly the standard jump in eyes you would get when comparing a main card on Fox, FX or pay-per-view to his prior two events on facebook and Ion television.

Recent Fights

Watson is on just his third fight in the UFC, and made his debut while riding only a one-fight winning streak, having seen a seven fight winning streak shut down then rebounding with an anaconda choke victory over Ismael Leon. In his debut in the Octagon Watson was paired off with Joseph Sandoval. Early in the first he knocked Watson off guard with a high kick, and while Sandoval attempted to regain his senses, Watson kept the pressure on for the round one TKO. For his next bout Watson was paired with Canadian striker Yves Jabouin and after three very close rounds came out on the wrong side of a decision.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Watson made his name on the local scene by utilizing his submission skills to wrack up tap-outs. The majority of Watson's submissions have come by way of guillotines and triangles, a threatening proposition for a fighter like Dillashaw who makes his money on the mats. Since entering the big show, however, Watson has elected to show off his striking and acquitted himself well in doing so. Although he could not repeat his TKO performance in the Jaboin fight he more than held his own against a fighter who likely expected to have a comfortable lead on the feet.

Fantasy Impact

Watson appears to be the fighter with the higher potential to finish the fight in this pairing, and with Dillashaw likely looking to make it into a grinding ground match, he will likely have to do so off his back with a submission. Take Watson to win the fight with a second round submission, and give some consideration to placing a bet or a spot in the parlay for the +185 fighter.

ADP Analysis: Underrated Hitters

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 14:20:00 +0000

Every Friday during the pre-season I will be analyzing ADP-related issues using the most recent information courtesy of Mock Draft Central and other sources. This week we are looking at hitters that are underrated in relation to their ADPs (unless stated otherwise, all stat references are for the 2011 season):

Catchers: Matt Wieters (ADP 98.90; 6th C), Salvador Perez (ADP 236.01; 17th C) and Devin Mesoraco (ADP 242.05; 24th C) - Wieters is a nice post-hype sleeper. His home runs jumped from 11 in 502 plate-appearances in 2010 to 22 in 551 PAs in 2011. His HR/FB jumped from 8% in 2010 to 13.6% in 2011, and his ISO also jumped from .128 in 2010 to .188 in 2011. Wieters is a player developing and entering his prime. Ron Shandler writes in his 2012 Baseball Forecaster that the switch-hitter has 30-homer upside. Wieters also has AVG upside, as his BABIP was just .276 last season after being .356 in 385 PAs in 2009 and .287 in 2010. Look to Wieters' 2011 second half xBA of .285 as the potential upside. Wieters also projects to hit 5th in Baltimore's lineup. ... Perez is a nice C2 target as he projects to hit seventh in a big-upside lineup in Kansas City, and should see a substantial amount of the catcher at-bats without a viable backup. His .331 average in 2011 is not sustainable, as he had a .362 BABIP, but he hit in the .280-.290 range in the minors with good counting stats (2011 - 9 HRs and 43 RBIs in 309 Double-A PAs; 2010 - 7 HRs and 53 RBIs in 396 PAs in high class A). ... Mesoraco hits in a great home ballpark and has the most upside of any C2 relative to his ADP. If he gets the Dusty Baker treatment and sits the bench, he can easily be dropped since he's a late pick, or he can be streamed as your C3 to maximize at-bats from your catcher position.

First Basemen: Adam Lind (ADP 151.70; 14th 1B) and Gaby Sanchez (ADP 198.37; 17th 1B) - Lind is projected to hit cleanup -- behind walk machine Jose Bautista -- and plays in the hitter-friendly AL East. His BABIP dropped to .265 in 2011, which resulted in an average of just .251. However, his first-half xBA of .312 in 2011 and .311 xBA/.305 AVG in 2009 shows his AVG ceiling. Consistent power throughout his career -- and a bump from his 17% HR/FB in 2011 to the 20% he had in 2009 -- may bring stats close to his 2009 season (35 HRs/114 RBIs). The 22% HR/FB in first half of 2011 shows this is possible. I like Lind more than the three first basemen being drafted immediately before him: Paul Goldschmidt at ADP 147.60; Ryan Howard at ADP 145.73; and Mark Trumbo at ADP 142.61. ... Sanchez will be hitting in an improved Miami lineup with the addition of Jose Reyes, likely rebound of Hanley Ramirez, and further development of Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison. Sanchez's line drive rate (16.7% in 2009, 17.1% in 2010 and 20% in 2011) and BB/K ratio (.56% in 2010, .76% in 2011) have continued to improve, which shows his development as a hitter. This may be the year he avoids the second-half fade. First base is not deep this year, and after Mike Morse is taken in the range of the 5th-7th rounds, I like targeting Lind or Sanchez relative to their ADPs.

Second Basemen: Aaron Hill (232.96 ADP; 17th 2B) - Hill projects to hit second in the Arizona lineup, in front of stud Justin Upton, and should have a good chance to repeat the 103 runs he scored in 2009. He also has massive upside, as evidenced by his 2009 (36 HRs/108 RBIs) and 2010 (26 HRs) seasons. In 2011, he also added a speed element, with 21 swipes after his previous career high had been six in 2009. If he can put it all together and avoid nagging leg injuries, he will easily outproduce his draft position. Hill is a strong middle-infield target after you fill your second-base slot, since shortstop is not as deep this year as 2B.

Shortstops: Alexei Ramirez (167.37 ADP; 13th SS) - Ramirez projects to hit second, so he should have good run opportunities, and with his health and consistenty over the course of his career, he has a chance to blow past his career high of 83 runs in 2010. The right-handed hitter has a good power/speed combo that should put him in the teens in both homers and steals. He may be a boring pick for those who do not want to reach for a shortstop, but helps win championships. I prefer targeting Ramirez as an underrated SS compared to the two shortstops off the board immediately after: Emilio Bonifacio (172.25 ADP; 14th SS) has playing-time concerns and no power, and Jhonny Peralta (175.79 ADP; 15th SS) has no speed and a lower batting average floor (.245 xBA in 2009, .260 xBA in 2010 and .262 xBA in 2011).

Third Basemen: In an incredibly weak year for third basemen, I like targeting Evan Longoria (ADP 11.49) in the middle of the first round or Kevin Youkilis (ADP 84.66, 9th 3B) later on. Longoria's unlucky .239 BABIP kept his average down, but his .286 xBA showed what his average should have been. His development as a hitter was demonstrated by his BB/K average spiking from .58% in 2010 to .86% in 2011. Also, his HR/FB returned to 18% after dropping to 11% in 2010. His upside is stated in Shandler's Forecaster as 40 HR/.290 AVG. Given the position scarcity of 3B this season, Longoria is underrated at ADP 11.49. ... After Youkilis on the third-base depth chart, there is a huge dropoff, so don't let him slip past you in the draft. Youkilis' BABIP dipped to its lowest level since 2004 at .296, and his AVG tanked due to hitting only .234 versus right-handed pitchers. Since he has never had a problem with righties before despite a negative pattern emerging (.318 in 2008, .304 in 2009, .275 in 2010), let's hope it was a one-year blip. Also, a return to health should yield one more season approaching 2008 and 2009 levels despite Youkilis likely being on the downside of his career at age 33.

Outfielders: Jason Heyward (ADP 107.03, 31st OF), Bryce Harper (ADP 210.33, 55th OF) and Alex Rios (ADP 221.02, 60th OF). Heyward's BABIP was .260 in 2011, which resulted in a .227 average. But, his .251 xBA showed he's not a .220s hitter (in 2010, his xBA was .278 and his BA was .277). Also, he has dropped 20 pounds and was doing hitting drills at Turner Field in January 2012. I'll take the chance his eye returns that yielded 51 walks to 51 strikeouts in 422 PAs in the minors in 2009, and he can reverse the drop in line drive rate from 18% in 2010 at age 20 to 13% in 2011 at age 21. ... Harper is the classic high-upside fifth outfielder, both since his value will skyrocket if he makes the team out of Spring Training, and because if that happens -- like Yu Darvish discussed here -- you can take advantage of the owner in your league that makes trades based on name recognition over stats by selling very high early in the season. ... Rios' alternating years of good and bad seasons says this should be a good one. He is being drafted so low (Eric Thames and Nyjer Morgan are the OFs directly above him in ADP rank) that he is worth the chance to see if he can reverse a .237 BABIP (2009 was the only other year in his career his BABIP was below .300) and provide upside HR/SB numbers as your fifth or sixth outfielder. Remember: he had 21 HRs, 88 RBIs, 34 SBs and a .284 AVG as recently as 2010.

Closer Handedness Splits

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 14:15:40 +0000

One of the ways a closer can lose his job is to not get hitters out from both sides of the plate. If a right-handed closer is only able to get RHH out consistently, teams will begin to stack the line-up with as many LHH as possible. Here is an in depth look at closer handedness splits.

I got the list of current closers from MLB Depth Charts a couple of days ago. Currently, several teams have shaky situations at closer, so this list will likely change before the beginning of Spring Training. I will try to give an update on it with the changes later.

To start off, here are the closers, their current team, throwing arm, FIP and TBF for LH and RH hitters. Additionally, I calculated the % of RHH the pitcher faced and the difference in their FIP. Only data from 2002 and later was used because the data at Fangraphs only goes back that far.

			vs LHH		vs RHH
Name	Team	Hand	FIP	TBF	FIP	TBF	% RHH	FIP Difference
Jim Johnson	Orioles	R	3.47	531	3.82	565	51.6%	0.35
Andrew Bailey	Red Sox	R	3.55	336	1.98	346	50.7%	1.57
Mariano Rivera	Yankees	R	2.49	1318	2.61	1335	50.3%	0.12
Kyle Farnsworth	Rays	R	4.27	1134	3.52	1448	56.1%	0.75
Sergio Santos	Blue Jays	R	3.01	221	2.94	274	55.4%	0.07

Matt Thornton	White Sox	L	2.71	809	3.86	1137	58.4%	1.15
Chris Perez	Indians	R	4.30	404	3.91	520	56.3%	0.39
Jose Valverde	Tigers	R	4.24	1070	2.87	1103	50.8%	1.37
Joakim Soria	Royals	R	2.77	653	3.03	625	48.9%	0.26
Matt Capps	Twins	R	4.18	745	3.66	956	56.2%	0.52

Jordan Walden	Angels	R	2.08	171	3.51	147	46.2%	1.43
Brian Fuentes	Athletics	L	2.82	730	4.12	1703	70.0%	1.30
Brandon League	Mariners	R	4.58	682	3.41	759	52.7%	1.17
Joe Nathan	Rangers	R	3.04	1029	2.40	1126	52.3%	0.64

Craig Kimbrel	Braves	R	1.53	188	1.52	206	52.3%	0.01
Heath Bell	Marlins	R	2.85	959	2.98	1012	51.3%	0.13
Frank Francisco	Mets	R	3.67	684	3.53	738	51.9%	0.14
Jonathan Papelbon	Phillies	R	2.51	913	2.71	816	47.2%	0.20
Drew Storen	Nationals	R	2.63	222	3.77	313	58.5%	1.14

Carlos Marmol	Cubs	R	4.03	841	3.54	1142	57.6%	0.49
Ryan Madson	Reds	R	4.17	1235	3.28	1428	53.6%	0.89
Juan Abreu	Astros	R	11.60	13	1.41	21	61.8%	10.19
John Axford	Brewers	R	2.11	275	2.54	301	52.3%	0.43
Joel Hanrahan	Pirates	R	4.00	667	3.06	809	54.8%	0.94
Jason Motte	Cardinals	R	4.24	285	2.86	475	62.5%	1.38

J.J. Putz	Diamondbacks	R	3.67	933	2.85	976	51.1%	0.82
Rafael Betancourt	Rockies	R	3.83	974	2.48	1279	56.8%	1.35
Kenley Jansen	Dodgers	R	2.00	144	1.59	183	56.0%	0.41
Huston Street	Padres	R	3.64	769	2.69	979	56.0%	0.95
Brian Wilson	Giants	R	3.17	647	3.00	718	52.6%	0.17

Notes

- I would put no stock in Juan Abreu‘s results. Thirty-four hitters is not enough of a sample size. Sergio Santos, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel and Jordan Walden all have less than 500 TBF in their careers. Generally, it takes around 500 PA to get a good idea of a pitcher’s K% and BB%, which are major components of FIP. The trio’s results should be heavily regressed to the league mean. For the rest of the discussion, I will not be using these 5 in the calculations.

- The two left handed closers, Brian Fuentes and Matt Thornton, struggled against RHH compared to LHH. Teams have noticed this difference with Fuentes. Seventy percent of the hitters he faces are RHH. Because there are many good RHH that a team can use, I would stay away from any LH closers. Like the 5 pitchers with a small sample size, I will not use these 2 when doing futher calculations.

- Of the other 23 closers left, 5 have a split of over 1.00 FIP

Andrew Bailey: 1.57
Jason Motte: 1.38
Jose Valverde: 1.37
Rafael Betancourt: 1.35
Brandon League: 1.17

Historically, these 5 will be faced more RHH (~55%) than LHH. They have some ability to get out of inning if a couple of LHH string together some hits hits because of the number of RHH they will eventually face.

The two pitchers that I see red flags with are Andrew Bailey and Brandon League. Bailey will not have the luxury of working through a string of rough outings without getting pulled as the closer. The Red Sox will not have the patience with him losing games. The Yankees lineup especially could cause him a ton of issues since it is LH heavy. Brandon League‘s issue is that he is not a good reliever to begin with and the split just compounds the problem.

- Seven pitchers have a handedness split of less than 0.4

Jim Johnson: -0.35
Joakim Soria: -0.26
Jonathan Papelbon: -0.2
Heath Bell: -0.13
Mariano Rivera: -0.12
Frank Francisco: 0.14
Brian Wilson:0.17

This group of pitchers contain some of the best relievers in the game. A good reliever with a small split seems to be a good bet for long career as a closer.

Conclusion

Truthfully, I expected to find a little more useful data on handedness splits to help fantasy owners stay way from certain pitchers. I found only a few useful pieces of data (stay away from LH closers and Andrew Bailey), but that was about it. I think handedness splits may be more of a issue with setup men moving into the closers role. The setup men may be facing only a certain handedness of hitter to maximize their effectiveness. As a closer though, they will have to face whoever is due up in the 9th inning and the split will be exposed.

2012 Fantasy outlooks: Boston Red Sox

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 14:03:00 +0000

The Red Sox didn't make much noise this winter after a disasterous end to their 2011 season. Our Al Melchior examines the revamped roster for owners in advance of Draft Day.

Fantasy Baseball: 2/10

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 13:42:38 +0000

Nate Ravitz and Matthew Berry discuss Edwin Jackson, Roy Oswalt and prospects. Plus, Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson stops by to let us know what he's cooking.

Going Deep: Dynasty Minor League Draft Round 1

Craig Goldstein — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 13:03:15 +0000

As I mentioned in my last article, I take part in a 20 team/15 man minor league dynasty league. We are currently in the midst of the minor portion of our draft and I thought it could be instructive to go through each round and comment on what I liked or didn't and see what you guys think as well. Our draft consists of four rounds and only players with less than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched are eligible to be drafted. This league is not starting from scratch and has been under way for several years now. One other note: Yu Darvish, Yoenis Cespedes, Jorge Soler and Gerardo Concepcion were all eligible to be picked under our guidelines with the idea that they were or would be with major league teams within a short period of time.

My strategy going into this was simple: weight the bats available a bit heavier than the arms both because I value bats more than arms in general (I know I'm not alone there), and because I thought there was unusual depth in terms of pitchers available so I could get similar value late in the draft. Off we go...

1. Team 1 - Yu Darvish (SP TEX)
2. Team 2 - Anthony Rendon (3B WAS)
3. Team 3 - Trevor Bauer (SP ARI)
4. Team 4 - Gerrit Cole (SP PIT)
5. Team 5 - Dylan Bundy (SP BAL)

These picks went largely as I anticipated, though there were a few wrinkles. First and foremost, Team 1 used a loophole in our rules about not trading draft picks by making his pick and immediately flipping Darvish to Team 19 for Alex Gordon and Jeremy Hellickson. I'm ok with this practice and thought he received pretty good value for his pick, especially since Team 1 has shown a tendency to focus on statistically good performers in the minors who aren't what their numbers say they are (you'll see what I mean later). I had Rendon #1 on my board, followed by Bundy, Bauer, Darvish and Cole, so that those five went in some order seems about right.

6. Team 6 - Bubba Starling (OF KC)
7. Team 7- Francisco Lindor (SS CLE)
8. Team 8 - Archie Bradley (SP ARI)
9. Team 9 - Danny Hultzen (SP SEA)
10. Team 10 - Tyler Skaggs (SP ARI)

Which of these picks is not like the other? I suppose there are a couple answers here as Skaggs was not a 2011 top 10 pick, but the real answer for me is Francisco Lindor. I was shocked to see him picked this early, and while I can understand the motivation, the bottom line for me is that there is more impact talent available elsewhere at this time. No issues with Starling going sixth as if it all clicks he is an absolute monster but that is balanced by some substantial risk. I love the value of Skaggs at the tenth pick here as well. I love Bradley's upside, but think that Skaggs will pretty good himself, and is MUCH closer to providing value to both his and your ML squad.

11. Team 11 - Gary Brown (OF SF)
12. Team 12 - Travis D'Arnaud (C TOR)
13. Team 13 - Yoenis Cespedes (OF FA)
14. Team 14 - Josh Bell (OF PIT)
15. Team 15 - Taijuan Walker (SP SEA)

Several surprises both positive and negative for me in this grouping. Gary Brown was a late first/early second round talent at best on my board. I am lower on him than most, and even knowing that I was surprised he went as high as he did. He's one of the guys I discount some as he generates a ton of love from scouts for his defense. His numbers were great, but did come in the Cal League and I don't buy his power production. His speed is absolutely legit though, rating an 80 on the scouting scale. I was thrilled to land D'Arnaud at 12, as I think his combination of position and production will land him in the top 25 of many prospect lists. He was the BPA for me at the time. I was surprised Cespedes last this long given the hype around him and his ability to contribute quickly, though this falls more in line with my view of the value he'll provide. Bell and Walker were great selections as they were who I debated taking over D'Arnaud.

16. Team 16 - Javier Baez (SS CHC)
17. Team 17 - James Paxton (SP SEA)
18. Team 18 - George Springer (OF HOU)
19. Team 19 - Jorge Soler (OF FA)
20. Team 20 - Jake Marisnick (OF TOR)

This is when it struck me how deep this draft will be due to the massive haul of talent the 2011 MLB draft brought in. Great value for Team 20 as they add a guy I think will be a top 25 prospect this time next year in Marisnick. Team 19 adds to their selection of Darvish by taking a project/question guy in the 19 year old Cuban Soler. When I started preparing for this draft in November, I had Baez as someone I was targeting at 12, and I think he could be a steal this late. I absolutely love his bat speed, and if he can stick at SS (highly questionable) he could be a superstar. Paxton I was hoping would fall into the second round, but is a solid pick here as a guy with good upside and could help in the near future (relative term). I am ok with the Springer selection as well given his potential skill set, though I would have passed on him in favor of Marisnick or a few of the guys who now drop into round 2.

As far as first rounds go, I think this was fairly predictable in terms of players picked with the two wildcards being Lindor and Brown for me. I understand the reasoning on both of them as Lindor is a true shortstop with a possible above average bat, and that's no common thing in a league this size and Brown is at worst a speed guy and much more than that at best. My argument would be that at those picks there are similar ceiling talents with higher probabilities or higher floors. We'll see some of those guys in the next installment where I break down the second round. I'll try to get more in depth with certain players as the draft gets deeper, but tried to be brief here as these names should be recognizable to most prospect junkies. What do you think though? Were any major sins committed in the first round?

Staff Breakdown: Is There Hidden Fantasy Value In The Royals Pitching Staff?

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 12:00:28 +0000

by Will Overton

There is a lot of buzz going around about the sleeper value of the Kansas City Royals lineup of youngsters. Eric Hosmer is the next big thing at first base. The long hyped Alex Gordon is coming off his breakout season. Johnny Giovatella and Salvador Perez are a couple of off the radar sleepers that people are finally starting to get excited about.

Things are definitely changing in Kansas City, but is it just the lineup that has excitement, or is there some hidden potential in the pitching staff? There is definitely not the same kind of potential among the pitching as the hitting, but there could be some hidden fantasy value being overlooked that should be noted.

Here are the guys set to crack the Royals staff, or competing to do so, and the fantasy value they have, or don’t have.

Jonathan Sanchez: The Royals big offseason addition to their pitching staff Sanchez is supposed to come in and compete to be the team’s opening day starter. Sanchez might have more overall talent than the rest of the staff, but he has his issues and he’s leaving the confines of pitcher friendly San Francisco for the American League.

Sanchez can go toe to toe with just about anyone in terms of strikeouts, but he tries a bit too hard at times and his walk rate takes a beating for it. Sanchez’s strikeouts are tempting, but I would only take him as a flier late because there is a lot of risk involved.

Luke Hochevar: This is the guy that the Royals continue to hope will become their ace, and while I don’t think that’s ever going to happen, Hochevar is the team’s most consistent starter. Hochevar is the opposite of Sanchez, he is a strong control pitcher who will keep a low WHIP, but he doesn’t have the strikeout numbers to get him over the hump in fantasy.

However, Hochevar showed us a glimmer of hope in the second half of the season last year with a 6 – 3 record, 3.52 ERA and a 7.7 K/9 rate. In August and September the K/9 rate was 8.5. Hochevar is 28 years old so he might be running out of time to take his game to the next level, but I actually really like the idea of taking a flier on Hochevar late in the draft. If he can maintain a 7 or better K/9 rate he could have some real value.

Bruce Chen: Of all the Royals pitchers Bruce Chen may have had the best numbers last season with 12 wins and a 3.77 ERA. Chen is 34 years old and apart from the season he had in Baltimore six years ago this was his best season. If 12 wins and a 3.77 ERA is your best season and your 34 years old, you’re a mediocre pitcher at best and you can’t expect a 34 year old to get much better. Chen doesn’t get many strikeouts and doesn’t have much upside beyond what he did last season. Chen isn’t horrible, but because of the limited upside he’s probably best left for AL Only leagues.

Felipe Paulino: Remember what I wrote about Jonathan Sanchez, about two paragraphs ago, well most all of it applies here too. Paulino just isn’t as big of a name as Sanchez. Paulino got off to a rough start out of the bullpen last season, but once he was moved into the starting lineup he managed to post a 4.26 ERA from June through the end of the season. Also in those four months as a starter, Paulino had a 8.7 K/9 rate. To put it into perspective those numbers were similar to Max Scherzer, Ubaldo Jimenez and Chad Billingsley.

I’m not going to suggest that Paulino is in those guys class, he has plenty of weaknesses, mainly the walks and a WHIP that will likely touch 1.40 or higher. However, Paulino still as far away from these guys as you’d expect and he isn’t far off from Sanchez even, despite that he’ll likely not even get picked in most leagues, even deep ones. I’m taking a flier on him in deep leagues and I’m watching him in standard ones too.

Danny Duffy: If we’re talking strictly potential than no one on the Royals staff has more of it than Danny Duffy. He struggled in his time in the majors last season and will be fighting to start this season in the big leagues, but his minor league numbers show he should hold value. In 365.2 innings pitched in the minors Duffy had a K/9 rate of 10.5 and a 2.87 ERA. Because of the fact that Duffy struggled as much as he did in the majors last season he can’t really be anything more than a guy to monitor in your deep leagues, but he’s a nice flier for AL only leagues. The potential is big time though and I would keep an eye on him.

Do you think there is hidden value on the Royals rotation that people aren’t seeing? Do any of these five projected starters jump out to you as guys you’d take a flier on? Give me your thoughts.

More Fantasy Draft Rankings for 2012: Wherein We Continue to Be Very Inappropriate With Photo Choices

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 11:29:00 +0000

[more...]

XFINITY Ultimate Sports Social Media Job Contest

Ray Guilfoyle — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 11:01:55 +0000

Comcast is one of SB Nation's top partners, so take some time to check out the top candidates who are competing to be the first Ultimate Sports Social Media Personality.

Since I am a stats guy, go out and vote for the 'encyclopedia of stats' candidate, if there is one.

Have you ever watched one of those TV shows where from thousands of hopefuls, one star is born? Well, Fake Teams readers, here's your chance to play "starmaker" and help pick the new voice of sports in social media!

XFINITY is looking for the next renowned sports social media star through its Ultimate Sports Social Media Job contest. The winning candidate will serve as the new voice of XFINITY in the sports social media space and go behind-the-scenes at some of the biggest sporting events in 2012, sharing exclusive insights and updates with fans.

From February 9-19, you can review qualified entry videos and vote for the contestant you'd like to see advance to the finals of the XFINITY Ultimate Sports Social Media Job contest. The five entrants with the most votes will advance to the final round of the contest where they will cover one of five premier sporting events the weekend of March 8-11. Fans can head today to Facebook.com/XFINITY and click on the Ultimate Sports Social Media Job contest tab to vote for your favorite personality (once per day)!

Will you choose the brainiac with the encyclopedia of stats, the former jock who knows the game inside out, or the corporate type who gets the marketing side of the business? You decide. Vote today at Facebook.com/XFINITY!

Head on over to the XFINITY Facebook page in the link above and cast your vote for the Ultimate Sports Social Media personality. You can vote once per day.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, the Top 300

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 08:15:24 +0000

Finally, we come to the end of the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings. (Can we start games already?) A little birdie told me we’re opening up our commenter fantasy leagues on Monday. Giddy to the up. Okay, you know that I like Lucas Duda more than Melky Cabrera in the top 60 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball. You know I like Zack Cozart better than Jhonny Peralta as seen at the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball. But you don’t know how I feel about where these guys fall in the bigger picture. Is Zack Cozart above Lucas Duda? Yup. So to show you where I think players fall in relation to each other in 2012 fantasy baseball drafts, I’m putting together a top 300 for 2012 fantasy baseball. This still needs to be taken with a grain of salt. If you have a shortstop already and Zack Cozart is still on the board in the 17th round, you don’t draft him if you see Lucas Duda and you need an outfielder, even though Lucas Duda is below Zack Cozart on this list. So I might take someone at 200 over someone at 180? Yes, every draft is different. With the top 10, there’s almost no latitude. With the top 100, there’s a decent amount of latitude. With a top 300, there’s lots of latitude. You taking someone at 185 is more or less the same as someone else taking someone at 235. So if you see someone who’s ranked at 250th, but want them at 200, then do what you do. Because of the length of the top 300, there’s no pithy comments with each name, but you kinda do need to know what I’m thinking for each name, so I advise you go over each position in the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings. The top 100 and top 300 is what I would have at my drafts, along with the Point Shares (for auction values; they are coming shortly; Rudy is just waiting on the final projections) and the top 20 rankings posts. I already went over a top 100 for 2012 fantasy baseball, so I’m not going to cover them again. This top 300 will go from 101 to 300. Finally, see our list of all players with multiple position eligibility. Anyway, here’s the top 300 for 2012 fantasy baseball:

101. Danny Espinosa – 2012 Projections: 80/24/90/.240/19
102. Drew Storen – 2012 Projections: 4-3/2.50/1.04/75, 38 saves
103. Mariano Rivera - 2012 Projections: 2-3/2.40/0.95/55, 40 saves
104. Alex Avila – 2012 Projections: 60/19/75/.280/3
105. Joe Mauer – 2012 Projections: 80/10/85/.310/3
106. Josh Johnson – 2012 Projections: 10-3/2.75/1.05/100 in 110 IP
107. Ian Kennedy – 2012 Projections: 15-10/3.50/1.12/180
108. Yu Darvish – 2012 Projections: 14-7/3.60/1.10/190
109. Josh Beckett – 2012 Projections: 14-9/3.60/1.20/185
110. Ricky Romero – 2012 Projections: 13-12/3.75/1.20/170
111. Jonathon Papelbon – 2012 Projections: 4-3/2.65/1.00/80, 37 saves
112. James Shields – 2012 Projections: 13-11/3.70/1.25/190
113. Alex Rios – 2012 Projections: 75/17/85/.270/22
114. Colby Rasmus – 2012 Projections: 85/22/70/.265/10
115. Corey Hart – 2012 Projections: 75/24/70/.265/8
116. Nick Markakis – 2012 Projections: 80/18/85/.295/10
117. Andre Ethier – 2012 Projections: 70/22/85/.295
118. Ryan Braun – 2012 Projections: 55/20/70/.280/12
119. Tommy Hanson – 2012 Projections: 9-7/3.75/1.20/130 in 120 IP
120. Matt Moore – 2012 Projections: 10-7/3.15/1.20/160 in 150 innings
121. Jose Valverde – 2012 Projections: 3-3/3.00/1.22/65, 35 saves
122. Brian Wilson – 2012 Projections: 5-3/2.90/1.32/70, 35 saves
123. J.J. Putz – 2012 Projections: 4-3/2.75/1.00/60, 32 saves
124. Michael Bourn – 2012 Projections: 90/2/40/.280/50
125. Emilio Bonifacio – 2012 Projections: 70/2/40/.260/30
126. Derek Jeter – 2012 Projections: 90/10/60/.275/15
127. Max Scherzer – 2012 Projections: 14-8/3.70/1.30/195
128. Ubaldo Jimenez – 2012 Projections: 13-10/3.65/1.27/190
129. Shaun Marcum – 2012 Projections: 12-8/3.60/1.17/160
130. Brandon Beachy – 2012 Projections: 12-7/3.45/1.18/190 in 170 innings
131. Brandon Morrow – 2012 Projections: 13-9/3.85/1.28/210
132. Cory Luebke – 2012 Projections: 9-8/3.25/1.09/170
133. Heath Bell – 2012 Projections: 4-3/3.25/1.18/50, 37 saves
134. Mike Moustakas – 2012 Projections: 60/20/80/.270/4
135. Alexei Ramirez – 2012 Projections: 75/17/80/.270/10
136. Erick Aybar – 2012 Projections: 80/6/50/.280/24
137. Miguel Montero – 2012 Projections: 60/17/75/.270
138. Jesus Montero – 2012 Projections: 55/17/70/.285
139. Torii Hunter – 2012 Projections: 80/24/90/.270/7
140. Vernon Wells – 2012 Projections: 75/25/85/.260/8
141. Chris Carpenter – 2012 Projections: 13-10/3.65/1.25/165
142. Carlos Marmol – 2012 Projections: 5-3/3.50/1.35/100, 25 saves
143. Coco Crisp – 2012 Projections: 65/7/50/.260/35
144. Carlos Beltran – 2012 Projections: 65/18/80/.275/7
145. Nick Swisher – 2012 Projections: 80/25/90/.270
146. Carlos Quentin – 2012 Projections: 60/22/75/.250/3
147. Ichiro Suzuki – 2012 Projections: 80/6/40/.310/30
148. Jose Tabata – 2012 Projections: 90/7/50/.285/30
149. Ryan Roberts – 2012 Projections: 55/13/65/.245/15
150. Aaron Hill – 2012 Projections: 70/18/80/.265/15
151. Kelly Johnson – 2012 Projections: 80/20/70/.265/14
152. Johnny Cueto – 2012 Projections: 11-6/3.80/1.25/130
153. Michael Pineda – 2012 Projections: 14-9/3.75/1.15/180
154. Adam Wainwright – 2012 Projections: 12-7/3.75/1.28/140 in 160 innings
155. Roy Oswalt – 2012 Projections: 14-10/3.65/1.22/140
156. Jhoulys Chacin – 2012 Projections: 12-10/3.60/1.26/175
157. Trevor Cahill – 2012 Projections: 12-10/3.60/1.35/160
158. Jaime Garcia – 2012 Projections: 11-9/3.65/1.30/160
159. Neftali Feliz – 2012 Projections: 10-6/3.55/1.20/95 in 120 innings
160. Joakim Soria – 2012Projections: 3-2/3.35/1.25/65, 35 saves
161. Joel Hanrahan – 2012 Projections: 2-4/3.35/1.20/65, 34 saves
162. Ryan Madson – 2012 Projections: 5-2/3.00/1.22/60, 32 saves
163. J.J. Hardy – 2012 Projections: 60/19/75/.255
164. Dee Gordon – 2012 Projections: 80/0/30/.265/45
165. Ian Desmond – 2012 Projections: 70/10/65/.250/22
166. Danny Valencia – 2012 Projections: 75/18/85/.265/3
167. Jason Kipnis – 2012 Projections: 80/14/60/.255/12
168. Austin Jackson – 2012 Projections: 100/9/50/.260/27
169. Delmon Young – 2012 Projections: 70/17/80/.285/3
170. Cameron Maybin – 2012 Projections: 75/7/35/.255/30
171. Jemile Weeks – 2012 Projections: 90/3/50/.265/30
172. Colby Lewis – 2012 Projections: 14-11/4.00/1.20/180
173. Derek Holland – 2012 Projections: 13-8/4.00/1.32/180
174. Justin Masterson – 2012 Projections: 10-10/3.85/1.32/160
175. Kenley Jansen – 2012 Projections: 1-3/2.25/1.00/85, 25 saves
176. Jason Motte – 2012 Projections: 3-4/2.50/1.10/65, 27 saves
177. Huston Street – 2012 Projections: 2-4/3.00/1.10/50, 30 saves
178. Tim Hudson – 2012 Projections: 11-9/3.65/1.18/120
179. Doug Fister – 2012 Projections: 12-10/3.85/1.18/140
180. Ervin Santana – 2012 Projections: 12-12/4.00/1.30/170
181. Mark Trumbo – 2012 Projections: 60/25/75/.260/7 (500 PAs)
182. Paul Goldschmidt – 2012 Projections: 75/27/85/.245/7
183. David Ortiz – 2012 Projections: 75/27/90/.270
184. Zack Cozart – 2012 Projections: 55/14/70/.245/20
185. Alcides Escobar – 2012 Projections: 75/5/50/.250/30
186. Jair Jurrjens – 2012 Projections: 11-9/4.15/1.35/100
187. Clay Buchholz – 2012 Projections: 10-6/4.25/1.30/125
188. Jeremy Hellickson – 2012 Projections: 10-9/4.30/1.25/130
189. Andrew Bailey – 2012 Projections: 3-1/3.30/1.10/50, 34 saves
190. Dustin Ackley – 2012 Projections: 80/12/55/.265/12
191. Lorenzo Cain – 2012 Projections: 80/8/50/.280/25
192. Lucas Duda – 2012 Projections: 75/20/85/.280/3
193. Brennan Boesch – 2012 Projections: 90/20/70/.270/7
194. Dexter Fowler – 2012 Projections: 90/7/50/.270/20
195. Jeff Francoeur – 2012 Projections: 70/22/80/.260/7
196. Melky Cabrera – 2012 Projections: 75/14/65/.270/15
197. Matt Joyce – 2012 Projections: 55/17/65/.265/10
198. Eric Thames – 2012 Projections: 70/20/75/.255/5
199. Nolan Reimold – 2012 Projections: 65/24/80/.250/10
200. Roger Bernadina – 2012 Projections: 55/10/65/.260/20
201. Brandon Belt – 2012 Projections: 70/24/80/.280/10 (in 500 ABs)
202. Kendrys Morales – 2012 Projections: 65/22/75/.290
203. Jhonny Peralta – 2012 Projections: 60/17/75/.250
204. Justin Morneau – 2012 Projections: 60/17/75/.285
205. Gaby Sanchez – 2012 Projections: 65/20/85/.265/3
206. Freddie Freeman – 2012 Projections: 60/19/75/.280/3
207. Jonathan Sanchez – 2012 Projections: 12-11/3.95/1.35/185
208. Vance Worley – 2012 Projections: 12-9/3.75/1.27/130
209. Mike Minor – 2012 Projections: 10-8/3.65/1.28/170
210. Neil Walker – 2012 Projections: 70/12/80/.270/7
211. Gordon Beckham – 2012 Projections: 55/14/70/.260/5
212. Wandy Rodriguez – 2012 Projections: 10-10/3.65/1.30/170
213. Mat Gamel – 2012 Projections: 60/25/75/.290
214. Sergio Santos – 2012 Projections: 3-5/3.70/1.24/80, 25 saves
215. Alex Presley – 2012 Projections: 80/10/60/.270/20
216. Jordan Walden – 2012 Projections: 4-2/3.35/1.26/65, 35 saves
217. Kyle Farnsworth – 2012 Projections: 4-1/3.40/1.15/50, 25 saves
218. Frank Francisco – 2012 Projections: 3-4/3.50/1.28/60, 30 saves
219. Rafael Betancourt – 2012 Projections: 4-2/3.50/1.10/65, 25 saves
220. Matt Thornton – 2012 Projections: 5-4/3.75/1.22/65, 20 saves
221. Joe Nathan – 2012 Projections: 3-4/3.75/1.18/45, 30 saves
222. Mike Carp – 2012 Projections: 55/21/70/.260/3
223. Chris Heisey – 2012 Projections: 50/17/65/.250/10
224. Nyjer Morgan – 2012 Projections: 65/3/30/.270/27
225. Brandon League – 2012 Projections: 1-4/3.50/1.20/65, 30 saves
226. Ian Stewart – 2012 Projections: 60/24/75/.245/7
227. David Freese – 2012 Projections: 55/15/65/.290
228. Martin Prado – 2012 Projections: 80/12/70/.300/5
229. Brandon McCarthy – 2012 Projections: 8-11/3.50/1.17/140
230. Tim Stauffer – 2012 Projections: 8-10/3.80/1.24/135
231. Ted Lilly – 2012 Projections: 11-8/3.85/1.18/160
232. Scott Baker – 2012 Projections: 11-7/3.65/1.19/160
233. Jake Peavy – 2012 Projections: 10-8/3.75/1.21/130
234. Ryan Vogelsong – 2012 Projections: 10-9/3.75/1.26/140
235. Jonathon Niese – 2012 Projections: 9-10/3.75/1.32/160
236. Bud Norris – 2012 Projections: 7-9/3.80/1.32/190
237. Mike Leake – 2012 Projections: 13-8/3.75/1.22/135
238. Ryan Dempster – 2012 Projections: 12-8/3.90/1.33/190
239. Edwin Jackson – 2012 Projections: 11-10/3.80/1.35/160
240. Geovany Soto – 2012 Projections: 60/18/75/.260
241. Wilson Ramos – 2012 Projections: 55/18/70/.270
242. Chris Iannetta – 2012 Projections: 55/16/65/.245/5
243. J.P. Arencibia – 2012 Projections: 50/21/70/.235
244. Devin Mesoraco – 2012 Projections: 55/18/65/.280
245. Salvador Perez – 2012 Projections: 50/10/65/.280
246. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – 2012 Projections: 45/15/60/.220
247. Ryan Doumit – 2012 Projections: 45/14/55/.260
248. Russell Martin – 2012 Projections: 50/10/60/.240/9
249. Jonathan Lucroy – 2012 Projections: 50/13/60/.260/3
250. Yonder Alonso – 2012 Projections: 55/16/70/.280
251. Justin Smoak – 2012 Projections: 55/18/65/.245
252. Carlos Pena – 2012 Projections: 55/25/75/.210
253. Dayan Viciedo – 2012 Projections: 60/15/70/.260/3
254. Michael Brantley – 2012 Projections: 60/6/50/.275/20
255. Josh Reddick – 2012 Projections: 75/15/85/.260/10
256. Jon Jay – 2012 Projections: 50/12/40/.280/10
257. Alejandro De Aza – 2012 Projections: 60/7/30/.270/20
258. John Mayberry – 2012 Projections: 40/18/55/.250/10 in 400 ABs
259. Jordan Schafer – 2012 Projections: 75/5/35/.245/25
260. Mitch Moreland – 2012 Projections: 60/15/70/.275/3
261. Angel Pagan – 2012 Projections: 75/6/40/.280/27
262. Andres Torres – 2012 Projections: 70/5/40/.265/24
263. Seth Smith – 2012 Projections: 55/15/70/.275/10
264. Ryan Raburn – 2012 Projections: 40/12/50/.275/3
265. Brian Roberts – 2012 Projections: 65/5/35/.260/12
266. Jose Altuve – 2012 Projections: 80/12/40/.265/24
267. Homer Bailey – 2012 Projections: 12-9/3.70/1.28/130
268. Brad Peacock – 2012 Projections: 9-8/3.60/1.30/170
269. Edinson Volquez – 2012 Projections: 8-12/3.75/1.33/200
270. Chris Sale – 2012 Projections: 8-8/3.50/1.24/130
271. Daniel Bard – 2012 Projections: 9-7/3.70/1.22/160
272. Chris Perez – 2012 Projections: 2-5/4.00/1.28/45, 25 saves
273. Jim Johnson – 2012 Projections: 4-5/4.00/1.30/60, 20 saves
274. Matt Capps – 2012 Projections: 3-5/3.90/1.28/45, 25 saves
275. Brian Fuentes – 2012 Projections: 2-5/3.60/1.20/45, 20 saves
276. Juan Abreu – 2012 Projections: 1-4/2.70/1.28/70, 20 saves
277. Sean Rodriguez – 2012 Projections: 55/14/65/.230/10
278. Aroldis Chapman – 2012 Projections: 7-2/3.00/1.26/90, 22 Holds, 5 saves
279. Javy Guerra – 2012 Projections: 2-3/3.50/1.25/55, 20 Holds, 12 saves
280. Jon Rauch – 2012 Projections: 4-5/3.55/1.30/40, 20 Holds, 10 saves
281. Tyler Clippard – 2012 Projections: 5-3/2.65/1.15/90, 20 Holds, 5 saves
282. Mark Melancon – 2012 Projections: 6-2/3.25/1.25/65, 22 Holds, 5 saves
283. Jonny Venters – 2012 Projections: 7-2/2.75/1.15//70, 24 Holds, 3 saves
284. Daniel Murphy – 2012 Projections: 75/12/60/.275/5
285. Josh Willingham – 2012 Projections: 65/22/80/.250/3
286. Francisco Rodriguez – 2012 Projections: 6-4/2.75/1.26/80, 18 Holds, 3 saves
287. Yunel Escobar – 2012 Projections: 70/12/45/.280/3
288. Jason Bartlett – 2012 Projections: 50/3/35/.255/20
289. Rafael Furcal – 2012 Projections: 60/7/35/.245/12
290. Tyler Pastornicky – 2012 Projections: 55/7/65/.250/17
291. Jed Lowrie – 2012 Projections: 60/12/65/.260/3
292. Stephen Drew – 2012 Projections: 60/12/55/.270/5
293. Juan Pierre – 2012 Projections: 85/1/40/.285/30
294. Jason Kubel – 2012 Projections: 60/20/75/.260
295. Ben Revere – 2012 Projections: 70/1/35/.280/30
296. Denard Span – 2012 Projections: 65/4/55/.280/25
297. Carlos Lee – 2012 Projections: 60/20/80/.265/3
298. Grady Sizemore – 2012 Projections: 75/17/60/.245/5
299. Hiroki Kuroda – 2012 Projections: 12-9/3.90/1.24/150
300. John Danks – 2012 Projections: 9-10/3.75/1.28/150

Fantasy Basketball Waiver Wire: Pick-N-Roll

MikeGallagher — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 07:43:57 +0000

We only had four games, but they sure gave us plenty to talk about. Kevin McHale has turned into a Shanahan, some Phoenix guys are turning up the heat, we'll talk Bobcats and everything else that is relevant in the world of fantasy basketball.

I talked about every single Rocket that played tonight, so be sure to check it out

Follow @MikeSGallagher

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Listen to internet radio with PickandRoll on Blog Talk Radio

The following is a list of guys that might be available in your league. The players listed played on Thursday night:

1. Channing Frye- Third great game in a row with 21 points, 10 boards, two steals, two blocks and four triples. That's a must-own guy no matter how much he was slumping earlier.

2. Jared Dudley- Besides the thigh injury, J-Dud has been rolling. He has played in 29 MPG in last 10 and has scored 14.5 PPG with 2.0 3PM in last four.

3. Arron Afflalo- A huge game with five from downtown for 26 points in 36 minutes. He might not stay healthy and he's a gamble, but with numbers like those, who cares?

4. Rudy Fernandez- Started hot and fizzled out a bit. He followed up his 17-point game with just nine points, four boards, five assists and a three in 37 minutes. He still took 13 shots and he should put up solid numbers.

5. Chase Budinger- This is his third positive game in a row for 8-cat. He was logging DNPCDs a month ago and he's clearly back into the groove. Three games in a row should be a big enough sample size to grab him in some competitive leagues. I wouldn't get too attached though.

6. Courtney Lee- The Kevin Martin disaster could help him. Don't forget about the plantar fasciitis.

7. Goran Dragic- He was getting Martin's minutes and some of Lowry's too. An 11-11 dub-dub is a very big game off the bench and the fluidity makes him worth owning for his upside.

8. Patrick Patterson- He was the king of the mid-range J and finished with 14 points on 6-of-8 shooting accompanied by six boards. We'll see how much longer Sammy remains in the doghouse.

9. Kenneth Faried- Not a bad start with eight points and 10 boards in 24 minutes. Athletic bigs will be Karl's best friend to keep the tempo high with his smaller lineups sans Gallo. I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit 28 MPG with regularity in about a week.

10. Jordan Hill- He actually looked decent tonight and was aggressive at getting to the rack. He played 17 minutes in the last game and his 24 minutes yielded 10 points and six boards.

11. Ekpe Udoh- He should play more. Five blocks.

12. Klay Thompson 19 points in 18 minutes. He's still too inconsistent to count on in most formats.

13. Troy Murphy- Pau and Bynum are playing massive minutes and Murphy is a sneaky handcuff. He is shooting the three and grabbed nine boards in Thursday.

14. Steve Blake- He played 32 minutes in his first game back and looked a lot better than Derek Fisher. The Lakers are very likely to deal for a PG though.

15. Michael Redd- Another so-so outing with 11 points. It was his fourth double-digit scoring game in a row. He doesn't have much upside though.

Thanks for reading!

A dynasty ranking follow-up

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:55:13 +0000

Analysis of the top 10 players ranked in early January's dynasty league article.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.

Podcast: Previewing the Keystone Corner

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:25:57 +0000

Yoenis Cespedes is pumped that he was featured on RotoRob’s Fantasy Baseball 365 Podcast.

In this week’s episode of RotoRob’s Fantasy Baseball 365 Podcast, Buck, Tim and I were back at it, bantering about baseball like a bunch of old hens clucking… in a good way, that is.

As always, we covered a ridiculous amount of ground in 30 minutes, waxing poetic on a range of topics including:

The hype being generated by Cuban prospect Yoenis Cespedes as MLB teams court him and Fantasy owners try to get in on the ground floor of the next big thing.
The recent trade between Baltimore and Colorado in which the Rockies continued to stockpile middling, aging arms in the form of Jeremy Guthrie and the O’s landed another closer candidate and sudden Fantasy sleeper, Matt Lindstrom.
The soaring ADP of Bryce Harper with news that he has a legitimate chance to break camp with the Nats. Should you descend on him like seagulls on a French fry or look before you leap?
The Fantasy implications of Josh Hamilton’s recent relapse.
Why Brad Penny is now Tim’s favourite 2013 sleeper (yes, 2013, not 2012).
A closer look at our recently released Second Base Rankings, in which we talk in greater detail about the top of the charts and pick both some under the radar dudes and some wouldn’t-touch-’em-with-a-ten-foot-pole types at the keystone corner.

We laughed, we cried… we talked Fantasy baseball.

See that triangular-shaped thingy below? That’s the play button. You know what to do.

Fantasy Hocker 2012: Player Profile - Sam Gagner

PostmanMatt — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 05:15:01 +0000

No player has been hotter than Sam Gagner in the past several games. An 8 point night certainly pads the stats a bit lately but what we're seeing here is perhaps something of a preview to things to come from Gagner. This profile will take a look at his past, his present and his outlook as a NHL player.

The Past

He joined the Sioux City Musketeers after forgoeing his verbal agreement to join the University of Wisconsin in 2005-2006. He did a good job for his first year and managed to make 46 points (11 goals, 35 assists) in 56 games with the Musketeers. Then, he was drafted in the fourth round in the OHL priority draft by the London (Ont.) Knights and got to play with the likes of Patrick Kane and Sergei Kostitsyn during that year. While playing, Kane, Kostitsyn and Gagner had a redonkulous year with at least 100 points each. Gagner had 118 points (35 goals, 85 assists) and the results of that single season catapulted his draft status when he entered the NHL Draft in 2007. He was garnering quite a bit of praise as much as fellow draftees Logan Couture and Jakub Voracek. Finally he was selected in the 6th overall pick by the Edmonton Oilers and was thrusted into high expectations for a storied franchise.

More about Gagner's present and outlook after the jump...

The Present

Gagner's expectations were quite high thanks to his high draft pick. The team needed help at the time so they immediately had him play in the NHL. During his rookie season, he had 49 points (13 goals, 36 assists) and was selected in the NHL YoungStars game as a part of All-Star weekend. As great as his scoring was in his rookie season, what was lost in the hubub was an atrocious -21 rating. He naturally struggled to adapt to protecting his own zone but things got better for him the next two season when he had a -1 rating in 2008-09 and -8 in 2009-10 seasons and 41 points in each of those seasons. Just as it seemed that he was going to continue to improve, things got alittle worse in the 2010-11 season with 42 points (15 goals, 27 assists) and bad -17 rating. However, things are looking up and up for the still young center as he is only 13 points away from his career best 49 points in his rookie campaign. He is doing better than he has done in the past in his +2 rating and it seems he's starting to find his own groove.

The Outlook

Despite being in the NHL for almost 5 seasons, it's hard to imagine that he's only 22 years old. His future still looks bright for him and you have to credit the Oilers for being very patient with him through his ups and downs. For fantasy owners, you need to remember that he is first and foremost a playmaker. He has excellent vision and is capable of making some the best plays out there but that also means he's going to shoot less and therefore score less goals, but you wouldn't know that looking at his recent play. That being said, if he's available in your league, there's no reason he should be sitting there. He should be sitting in YOUR bench at the very least and perhaps be playing in your Util slot if you have one. If you own him, some are saying he is an obvious sell high and I would say I agree with it just by looking at the rate he is scoring goals. What is not a fluke is the amount of assists he is dishing and he is also getting plenty of power play time. All in all, there's no reason to not ride him out as long as he's doing what he's doing best, getting plenty of opportunities to do it and that his youth is playing in his favor. If the Oilers can be patient with him for close to five years, why not try to be patient with Gagner?

Be sure to follow us on Twitter at @FakeTeams and @MattPTurner

West Links: Cruz, Mota, Padres, Abreu, Angels

Mike Axisa — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 04:17:07 +0000

We've already rounded up notes from the east and central divisions, now let's head out west...

The Rangers and Nelson Cruz avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year, $16MM deal earlier today, and the outfielder told Anthony Andro of FOXSportsSouthWest.com that a long-term deal is still possible (Twitter link).
The AP (via ESPN) reports that the Giants and Guillermo Mota have finalized their one-year, $1MM agreement. The two sides agreed to the contract in December. San Francisco's 40-man roster is now full.
The Padres are poised to sign a new television contract with FOX Sports that will guarantee them $75MM annually for the next 20 years, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The deal is pending MLB's approval.
ESPN's Jayson Stark listed five players that could get traded in Spring Training, including Bobby Abreu of the Angels. One executive told Stark: "There's no team in baseball more likely to make a deal this spring than the Angels."

Central Links: Gordon, Molina, Astros, Braun

Mike Axisa — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 02:55:09 +0000

Seven years ago today, the Cubs traded Kyle Farnsworth to the Tigers for Scott Moore, Roberto Novoa, and Bo Flowers. Farnsworth spent half-a-season in Detroit before being traded to the Braves at the deadline. Here's the latest on baseball's two central divisions...

Alex Gordon told Rustin Dodd of The Kansas City Star that he and his agent wanted to work out a one-year deal for 2012 before discussing a longer contract (Twitter link). He also confirmed that the Royals have offered him a long-term deal. Gordon avoided arbitration with a one-year pact earlier today.
"I love the city. I love the fans, I love the park. But it's out of my hands," said Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch when asked about a new contract (Twitter links). "Whatever they like to do is how it is ... They let Albert [Pujols] go. It's business for the team, too. It's out of my hands." Molina can become a free agent after the season.
"We're very active in terms of looking at transactions that are happening out there," said Astros GM Jeff Luhnow to Examiner.com's Stephen Goff. "Right now, most of the free agents have signed. Roy Oswalt is probably the last guy out there. We've got our fingers in everything. Are we actively looking to move a player or sign somebody at this point? No. We have got 61 guys coming to camp. From that group of 61, we believe we can get a real good 25-man roster to start the season."
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports (on Twitter) that the arbitrator in Ryan Braun's case won't be limited to the usual 25-day window, so a decision isn't necessarily expected by this Sunday. The Brewers slugger is appealing his failed banned substance test.

Hoyer Talks Alfonso Soriano, Matt Garza

Mike Axisa — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 01:58:17 +0000

Cubs GM Jed Hoyer appeared on "The Carmen, Jurko & Harry Show" on ESPN 1000 today to discuss a number of topics, and ESPN Chicago provided a transcript of the hot stove related items. Unsurprisingly, Hoyer acknowledged that the team is unlikely to trade Alfonso Soriano before the season...

"I think that's unlikely [that Soriano will start the season with another team]," said the GM. "We don't want to do anything to hurt our pitchers (with his defense), but we do believe there's something left in Sori."

As many as eight clubs inquired about Soriano earlier this offseason (including the Orioles), and chairman Tom Ricketts has made it clear that they're willing to eat most of $54MM left on his contract to facilitate a trade. The 36-year-old outfielder hit .244/.289/.469 with 26 homers last season.

Hoyer also spoke briefly about Matt Garza, specifically the team's interest in keeping him around beyond his final two years of team control...

"It was a long (arbitration) process, but we talked to Matt a number of times since and we're happy we didn't have to go into a hearing room with him," Hoyer said. "He's a great pitcher and a guy we're going to talk to him about being part of our future, for sure. We need more guys like Matt, not less, and if we can work something out we'll certainly have those discussions."

The Cubs and Garza avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $9.5MM last week, though he's been a popular name on the trade rumor circuit this winter. He won't become a free agent until after the 2013 season, and the Cubbies can certainly afford to keep him around long-term. There's no urgency to trade him or extend him right at this moment, though.

Peter Bourjos or Adam Lind

noreply@blogger.com (Mike Gianella) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 01:18:00 +0000

A reader wanted to my analysis of a straight-up Peter Bourjos for Adam Lind trade (I'm not sure which side of the trade he's on). My take: I'd much rather have Bourjos...and it's not even close, despite the fact that Bourjos wasn't that much better than Lind in 2011.

Bourjos 2011: 12 HR, 43 RBI, 22 SB, 72 R, .271 BA, $19
Lind 2011: 26 HR, 87 RBI, 1 SB, 56 R, .251 BA, $16

However, it seems that the arrow on Bourjos is pointing up while the arrow is flat or slightly down on Lind.

While I doubt Bourjos will ever be a 30+ HR hitter, he smacked nine of his 12 HR Post All-Star. Split statistics should always be eyed warily, but Bourjos is at the point in his development curve where the power spike should be viewed as more than just a small sample size fluke. 15-20 HR this year is possible.

Mike Scioscia will also probably let Bourjos run a little more. If Bourjos runs even a little more, it puts him on the periphery of an elite Roto company. Five A.L. hitters hit 20+ HR last year and stole 25+ bases: Jacoby Ellsbury, B.J. Upton, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Curtis Granderson. No, Bourjos isn't going to develop into a Roto monster like some of those guys. But he could be a poor man's Upton, and a low to mid $20s earner.

By contrast, unless Lind reverts to his 2009 form, he's not going to earn much more than $20. He hasn't been able to hit lefties, and the lack of plate discipline means that Lind's batting average is never going to get much better. Is a 30 HR/100 RBI season possible? I suppose, but even if Lind had reached those milestones last year, he only would have been worth another $2. The batting average will have to shoot up to .280 to really make Lind more valuable, and with his profile that seems unlikely.

As a general rule, if you have to choose between two players, take the one that can contribute in every category. Bourjos has an opportunity to be a five-category player. It might never happen, but you know that he should be a power/speed threat. Lind isn't going to run and isn't likely to hit for average. There isn't enough of a positional difference to make Lind worthwhile in any format to make me choose him for 2012 over Bourjos.

East Links: Yankees, Jones, Cespedes, Rays, O's

Mike Axisa — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:46:18 +0000

Mets GM Sandy Alderson joined Twitter with the handle @MetsGM today, opening with a joke about the team's financial situation. He told Newday's David Lennon (Twitter link) that he'll "probably keep doing it for a while ... or at least until [I run] out of material." Here's the latest from baseball's two east divisions...

The Yankees want Garrett Jones from the Pirates in any trade involving A.J. Burnett reports ESPN's Buster Olney, but Pittsburgh isn't interested in moving him and talks haven't progressed (Twitter links). Yesterday we learned that the Pirates are not on Burnett's no-trade list.
Yoenis Cespedes met with the Marlins and toured their new ballpark on Wednesday, but he could head back to the Dominican Republic as soon as today according to ESPN's Jayson Stark. Agent Adam Katz said "nothing is scheduled for now" when asked about meetings with other clubs.
Rays GM Andrew Friedman said it was a "dream scenario" to make the upgrades they did without sacrificing depth during an interview with 620AM radio, says Marc Topkin of The Tampa Times (Twitter link). Tampa added free agents Carlos Pena, Luke Scott, and Jose Molina this offseason.
The Orioles merged their pro and amateur scouting departments under new GM Dan Duquette, but the club will now have two more scouts covering the minor leagues according Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun.

Minor Moves: Mitch Atkins, Steve Holm

Mike Axisa — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 23:36:00 +0000

Let's keep track of the day's minor league signings right here...

The Nationals have signed right-hander Mitch Atkins, reports Matt Eddy of Baseball America (on Twitter). Atkins, 26, allowed ten runs in 10 2/3 innings for the Orioles last season, and has thrown a handful of big league innings in each of the last three years.
The Rockies have signed catcher Steve Holm, tweets Eddy. The 32-year-old had two hits and a walk in 18 plate appearances for the Twins last year, his first big league action since 2009. Eddy notes that Holm is the sixth catcher Colorado has signed to a minor league deal this offseason.

Royals Avoid Arbitration With Alex Gordon

Mike Axisa — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 22:16:28 +0000

The Royals and Alex Gordon have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year contract, the team announced. Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star reports that the deal is worth $4.775MM while Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com says he can earn another $25K in bonuses (Twitter links). Gordon is represented by Casey Close.

As our Arbitration Tracker shows, Gordon filed for $5.45MM while the team countered with $4.15MM, so they settled just below the midpoint in terms of guaranteed money. The two sides are said to be exploring a long-term contract, but for now they've only addressed the upcoming season. Gordon can become a free agent after 2013. All of Kansas City's arbitration-eligible players are now under contract for 2012.

Gordon, who will turn 28 tomorrow, enjoyed a long-awaited breakout season in 2011, hitting .303/.376/.502 with 23 homers and 17 steals. He earned his first All-Star selection and drew some MVP votes as well, which is what the Royals hope he'll do on an annual basis after making him the second overall pick in the 2005 draft.

Twins Designate Esmerling Vasquez For Assignment

Mike Axisa — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 22:00:09 +0000

The Twins have designated Esmerling Vasquez for assignment, reports Joe Christensen of The Star Tribune. The move creates room on the 40-man roster for the recently claimed Darin Mastroianni.

Vasquez, 28, was claimed off waivers from the Diamondbacks back in September. He appeared in 31 games for Arizona last year, posting a 4.15 ERA with 5.9 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and a 35.5% ground ball rate in 30 1/3 innings. The right-hander appeared in 50-plus games for the D'Backs in 2009 and 2010, when he posted higher strikeout rates, walk rates and ERAs than he did in 2011.

Quick Hits: Prospects, Rogers, Tigers

Ben Nicholson-Smith — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 21:40:00 +0000

Today we've heard that Rich Harden is out for the year and that Nelson Cruz agreed to a two-year deal with the Rangers. Here are some more notes from around MLB...

Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Matt Moore are the top prospects in baseball, Keith Law writes. Law unveiled his annual top 100 list at ESPN.com this morning and Manny Machado of the Orioles and Shelby Miller of the Cardinals round out the early portion of Law's list, and the entire piece is worth reading.
ESPN.com's Buster Olney lists ten prospects who have a chance to make an impact from Opening Day on and names a handful of pitchers who could be traded during Spring Training.
Mark Rodgers, the agent who negotiated Mike Hampton's $121MM contract 11 years ago, told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that “not every player is equipped to handle the burden" of a nine-figure deal. Morosi hears from Dan O'Dowd, Dave Dombrowski, Jon Daniels, Scott Boras and Pat Gillick and puts together a piece that's well worth your time. Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes and Yu Darvish required $100MM commitments this offseason.
Esmil Rogers of the Rockies has attracted some mild trade interest, Troy Renck of the Denver Post tweets. The 26-year-old is out of options and has yet to put it together at the Major League level.
Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski acknowledges that defense is not his team's strength, but insists the Tigers can field a strong defensive lineup if necessary, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports.

The Disappointments of Youth: Matt LaPorta

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 21:15:39 +0000

Trading highly-touted top prospects is a dangerous game for GMs, even if the return is proven player, because the trade seldom ends up being a fair one. Either the prospect pans out and the receiving team now has a star under team control for the better part of the next decade, or the prospect doesn’t pan out and the sending team has managed to sell a player at the pinnacle of his theoretical value, a point he will never reach in reality, and gotten a major league star for as their prize.

When the 2008 Brewers sent their top prospect at the time, Matt LaPorta, to the Indians as the key piece in the C.C. Sabathia trade, they were betting that LaPorta would fall into the second category and that Sabathia would help them make the playoffs. Credit to Doug Melvin and his staff, they were right on both accounts: The Brewers did make the playoffs in 2008 and LaPorta has struggled to get consistent playing time in the majors with Cleveland, even despite a youth movement within the Indians organization.

LaPorta hasn’t been a complete bust for the Indians, but his bat hasn’t at all played the way they had hoped it would and his defense isn’t good enough to cover the gap between expectation and reality. Add in the relatively high replacement level bar at first base and you have LaPorta’s career -1.4 WAR mark. His 2011 wasn’t awful, but .247/.299/.412 with 11 home runs just isn’t good enough from a starting first baseman and LaPorta isn’t going to fit anywhere else. His strikeout rate jumped from an already high 19.3 percent up to 22.6 percent, while his walk rate fell from just shy of 11 percent back down to just 6 percent. If he were walking more, perhaps he might have some value as a Carlos Pena-type player in OBP leagues, but he doesn’t even have as part of his arsenal.

There’s not much in LaPorta’s profile that excites me. He got off to a pretty good start in 2011, hitting .247/.337/.481 with four of his 11 home runs, but he was unable to sustain that success and regressed in every way as the season progressed. His minor league numbers are good, but he hasn’t gotten consistent playing time there since 2009, so it isn’t as though he’s splitting his time between being good in the minors and being ineffective in the majors. He has low BABIP, which could be a reason to hope that at least his batting average will come back and be a useful fantasy tool, but he hits flyballs at such a high rate — and relatively few line drives — that it’s hard to bank on his BABIP regressing back to near .300.

On nothing more than merit, LaPorta would be a last round flier for me, and even that depends on who else is left. But with the playing time issues he is facing, I just can’t even recommend him as a flier. The Indians brought in Casey Kotchman to man first base for the majority of their games, and they also have Carlos Santana as an occasional first baseman, which leaves LaPorta no higher than their third option. He could battle Travis Hafner for DH time, which is probably his easiest route to consistent playing time, though he’ll have to battle Russ Canzler for the spot. Canzler is younger and can play more positions, which almost certainly gives him a leg up for what amounts to a bench bat spot on the Indians’ roster.

Deep AL-only players may look at LaPorta out of duty, but reports coming out of Cleveland are that the Indians may send LaPorta back to Triple-A in order to keep him from stagnating on the big league bench, which would render him a wasted draft pick. There’s too much risk here for far too little reward irrespective of format. Let another league member dream on a former top prospect’s potential this season rather than having to hope and pray for LaPorta to suddenly find his power stroke in time to convince the Manny Acta and the rest of the Indians coaches that they should clear playing time for him once again.

Orioles To Sign Nick Johnson

Ben Nicholson-Smith — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 21:02:52 +0000

The Orioles have agreed to sign Nick Johnson to a minor league deal, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. Turner Gary Sports represents the first baseman/DH.

Johnson last played in the Major Leagues with the 2010 Yankees, and though he has had trouble staying on the field, he owns a .401 career on-base percentage. A wrist injury limited Johnson to 24 MLB games in 2010 and he spent the 2011 season in the Indians' minor league system. Johnson posted a .201/.326/.328 line in 225 plate appearances in the upper minors last year.

Taking Stock Of Recent Early-Career Extensions

Ben Nicholson-Smith — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 20:20:00 +0000

Some franchises have had tremendous success locking up star players to team-friendly extensions early on in their careers. The deals are an integral part of the current Rays teams, and they figured prominently into John Hart’s model for the 1990s Indians.

But not all early-career extensions are team friendly, even if they first seem shrewd. Teams couldn’t make Mo Vaughn-sized mistakes on players with one or two years of service time if they tried to, but the moves can and do backfire on a more modest scale.

MLBTR's Extension Tracker lists all the extensions signed by players with less than two years of service time since 2009. I’ve compared these contracts to how the players' earnings might look if they had gone year to year instead of signing long-term (click on the team names for MLBTR posts for each extension):

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies - Even though Jimenez is coming off of an up-and-down 2011 season, his deal is a team-friendly one. If he hadn't signed, Jimenez would have been arbitration eligible for the first time following the 2010 season. The combination of his sparkling platform season and strong career numbers would have set Jimenez up for a potentially record-setting 2011 salary of $4.4MM or more followed by a raise for the 2012 season. Instead, he earned $2.8MM last year and will earn just $4.2MM in 2012. There's no denying Jimenez struggled last year, but this extension saved his teams money.

Denard Span, Twins - Before signing his deal, Span had a career OPS of .811 in 1087 plate appearances. Since the contract, he has a .682 OPS in 1016 plate appearances. I estimate he'd be in line for a salary in the $2-2.5MM range if he had gone to arbitration as a first-time eligible player this offseason. Instead, he'll earn $3MM in 2012 with generous raises on the way for 2013-14.

Brett Anderson, Athletics - Anderson (pictured) would have been arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason if he hadn't signed his extension. The lefty missed the second half of the 2011 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and will earn $3.25MM in 2012. If he hadn't signed an extension, his salary would have been lower, likely in the $2-3MM range. This deal could pay off later, since the A's have a club option for one of Anderson's free agent seasons.

Ricky Romero, Blue Jays - Romero would have been arbitration eligible this offseason and his numbers would likely have placed his 2012 salary in the $4MM range if he hadn’t signed an extension. Romero will earn $5MM in 2012, so the Blue Jays’ savings will start in 2013 or 2014, when the left-hander earns $7.5MM per year. The deal couldn't be going much better for either side at this point.

Wade Davis, Rays - Davis wouldn't yet be arbitration eligible even if he hadn't signed his contract last offseason. So far the Rays' investment looks fair, but unspectacular. Davis pitched 184 solid innings last year and would be well on his way to a 2013 salary in the $3MM range. Instead, he'll earn $2.8MM next year.

Jose Tabata, Pirates - Tabata has only played a partial season since signing his deal, so it’s too early to assess its success.

Matt Moore, Rays - Moore has thrown all of 304 pitches at the Major League level (postseason included). We’ll have a better sense of how his deal is going a year from now.

Extensions are about risk management for both the player and the team. It’s understandable for players like Evan Longoria to seek guaranteed money early in their careers, just as it’s understandable for teams to cap costs on players who seem headed for certain stardom. Some deals work out considerably better than others, though, and the lesson here is that early-career extensions are far from a sure thing for teams.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Twins Claim Darin Mastroianni

Ben Nicholson-Smith — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 19:50:15 +0000

The Twins announced that they claimed Darin Mastroianni from the Blue Jays, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com tweets. The Blue Jays designated the outfielder for assignment last week to create roster space for Francisco Cordero.

Mastroianni made his MLB debut with the 2011 Blue Jays after spending most of the season at Double-A and Triple-A. The 26-year-old posted a .268/.353/.377 line with 34 stolen bases (44 attempts) in the upper minors last year. He has minor league experience at all three outfield positions and has mostly played center field.

Dollar-for-Dollar All-Stars

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 19:15:59 +0000

In the comments to my keeper round-up last week, reader/commenter LuckyStrikes wrote:

I’d like to see an Ottoneu article highlighting the top 10 players whose value far exceeded their salary from 2011 and those players primed to do so in 2012.

Well, I can’t quite do that, but I am going to try to give you something (sort of) close (I think). I’ve taken the keeper data for points leagues and the 2011 point totals for each player to calculate the points/dollar for the average price at which each player was kept, and I am going to take a look at the best and worst values out there.

Three quick notes on methodology before we start. First, by the nature of the data, this is inherently backwards looking. It probably has some value for considering players in 2012, but this is really a look at players who most exceeded their value in 2011. But while a guy like Matt Moore looks unimpressive on a pts/$ basis in 2011, he wasn’t kept because of 2011, but because of the potential for 2012. The data doesn’t do him justice. Second, to account for this, I left out of the analysis anyone who had fewer than 200 plate appearances, fewer than 20 relief appearances or fewer than 10 starts (I used a thresh hold of Relief Appearances+2*Starts>20 for pitchers who appeared in both roles). This is to account for the issue described above. Finally, I focused on FanGraphs Points leagues because a) points are easy to calculate with and b) this is the most popular format.

With that in mind, here is a table that outlines the two most valuable position player keepers, based on pts/average salary, by price band.

Price Band	Player	2011 Points	Average Salary	Pts/$
>$3	Alex Avila	831.2	$3.32	250.4
	Casey Kotchman	710.0	$3.17	224.0
>$5	Carlos Lee	804.0	$5.35	150.3
	Michael Morse	901.0	$6.00	150.2
>$10	Michael Young	971.1	$11.21	86.6
	Aramis Ramirez	913.5	$11.40	80.1
>$15	Jacoby Ellsbury	1205.0	$15.22	79.2
	Curtis Granderson	1102.1	$15.86	69.5
>$20	Brandon Phillips	866.0	$20.48	42.3
	Ian Kinsler	1023.8	$25.07	40.8
>$25	Ian Kinsler	1023.8	$25.07	40.8
	Matt Kemp	1260.3	$31.64	39.8
>$30	Matt Kemp	1260.3	$31.64	39.8
	Jose Bautista	1257.3	$31.72	39.6
>$35	Prince Fielder	1200.4	$42.57	28.2
	Miguel Cabrera	1286.4	$49.71	25.9

It should be clear from the start why this had to be done by price band – not surprisingly a number of $3 players (remember, with the salary increases, $3 is the lowest possible price for a Major League player) led the way, by virtue of their low salary. Lee would be the 32nd highest rated player if we ignored salary bands, behind guys such as Jamey Carroll, Omar Infante, and the incomparable Yuniesky Betancourt. Alex Avila is your grand champion, the most productive player, dollar-for-dollar. That probably surprises no one – you would expect a breakout youngster with low expectations to top the charts. And I would say that there are few players I would rather keep at their price than Avila at $3. I did not, however, expect to see Kotchman so high, and I doubt he will fair as well in 2012.

Those two players in the >$5 price band are so interesting because of the expectations around them from past years. Morse is widely considered a breakout player who put up incredible numbers for a low investment; Lee is widely considered washed up. And yet, they put up pretty similar numbers, dollar for dollar. Would I rather have Morse in 2012? Absolutely. But while Morse was kept in 90% of leagues, Lee was cut in almost half. If people value him at less than $5, and you can grab him for a couple bucks next year, I bet you’ll like the outcome.

Kinsler and Kemp both managed to jump a price band, outperforming a lot of guys priced cheaper than them, but the king of that category is Miggy. At more than $49, he managed to be the second best value among players almost $15 cheaper. And his value will only go up with 3B eligibility. Pretty impressive.

Finally, on a pretty unimportant, but sort of odd note, how many of those bands have guys who play the same position? Morse/Lee, Young/Ramirez, Ellsbury/Granderson, Phillips/Kinsler, Kemp/Bautista, Fielder/Cabrera. Not sure it means anything – maybe someone else can find a rationale for this?

As for the pitchers:

Price Band	Player	2011 Points	Average Salary	Pts/$
>$3	Doug Fister	1083.7	$3.42	316.9
	Jason Vargas	792.0	$3.09	264.0
>$5	Ervin Santana	921.3	$5.04	182.8
	Carl Pavano	871.0	$5.00	174.2
>$10	James Shields	1148.7	$11.32	101.5
	Matt Garza	1004.0	$10.71	93.7
>$15	Chris Carpenter	1177.7	$19.70	59.8
	Matt Cain	1133.3	$23.59	48.0
>$20	Matt Cain	1133.3	$23.59	48.0
	Jered Weaver	1137.3	$23.89	47.6
>$25	Dan Haren	1201.7	$26.78	44.9
	David Price	1055.7	$26.93	39.2
>$30	Clayton Kershaw	1296.7	$33.14	39.1
	Justin Verlander	1263.0	$34.35	36.8
>$35	Cliff Lee	1261.3	$38.76	32.5
	Roy Halladay	1361.3	$44.43	30.6

Again, price bands are clearly important. This time Santana would have been 27th overall. You’ll also notice that the lower-band pitchers are all better values than their offensive counterparts. This is most likely a result of two things: first, pitching is more volatile so the opportunity for a guy to put up an unexpectedly big year is greater; and second, fantasy players know pitching is more volatile and tend to discount the prices accordingly, meaning that the pitchers who do succeed are better values, on average, balancing out the pitchers who flop.

This time the guys who leap-frog a price-band are Cain, Lee and Halladay. The latter two, though, benefit from a lack of competition – only 10 pitchers were kept at over $30 (including George Sherrill in one league, who I imagine is a placeholder, not a keeper), compared to 31 position players.

I was also surprised to see not one reliever make the cut. Considering how under-priced some relievers are, I figured there would be some great pt/$ values. But the highest value pitcher was Alfredo Aceves, at 169.7 pts/$, which ranked 32nd. The highest ranked full-time reliever (Aceves made four starts in 2012) was David Robertson, whose 160.8 pts/$ placed him 42nd overall.

Finally, for those curious the lowest value keepers were Brian Matusz (1.8 pts/$) and Jeff Mathis (7.4 pts/$). Mathis was only kept in one league, so if we limit ourselves to players kept at least twice, your low value position player is Hanley Ramirez, whose $47.77 salary netted just 409.6 points, for a ratio of 8.6.

Jacoby Ellsbury, 2012 Fantasy Outlook

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 19:00:55 +0000

It’s quite possible that Jacoby Ellsbury can provide more first round value than most any other player selected, especially if he goes late in the first.

I have been a huge Ellsbury supporter for some time, ranking him seventh before his disastrous 2010 campaign. I truly believed Ellsbury had elite talent and could improve upon his power. Of course, 2010 was a complete waste.

Then in 2011, no matter what format you played in, Ellsbury was a top performer (#2 on ESPN’s player rater, for what it’s worth). Depending on Ryan Braun’s suspension, I have Ellsbury 6th or 7th. Fleaflicker has him 7th overall.

Grey has him at 12 in his top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball, which is a travesty. Outside of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Troy Tulowitzki, Ellsbury is the only surefire five category contributor. The only thing players like Fielder, Votto and Adrian Gonzalez have over Ellsbury is they will hit 10-15 more HRs and knock in 30 more runs. Ellsbury will pace them by a bunch of runs, out-steal them likes he’s the Hamburglar and they’re Grimace and bat for a better average. By my count, he wins 3 categories, while the slow lumbering 1Bs win two. Thanks to Sesame Street and the Count, I know 3 is greater than 2.

Let’s address the hesitancy surrounding Ellsbury, i.e., his power. His .230 ISO last year was leaps and bounds better than anything he ever did at any level (presumably since little league).

Will he hit 30+ HRs again in 2012?

No, I don’t think so (obviously it’s possible, but not overly plausible). Still, scouts have believed Ellsbury could settle into the high teens/low 20s in terms of HR output and that seems logical. I’ll pencil him in for 20 HRs.

So he needs to make up the value for a loss of 12 HRs. He’ll do so by getting on base consistently, to the tune of a .320 average and .370 OBP. With that, he’s a lock to score 100+ runs. Furthermore, in a potent Red Sox line-up, 75 RBIs seem to be a given, with significant upside there as well.

And with all that getting on base comes steals. In his last three full seasons, he has stolen 50, 70 and 39 bases. I think 40 is by far the low watermark, with 45-50 being a reasonable expectation. Again, he has upside.

There are very few first round picks with upside. Ellsbury has that. If I’m picking in drafts, I want to be later in the first round to secure Ellsbury and grab a slugger when it comes back to me. That’s a winning formula.

In short:

You want Ellsbury on your team, you need Ellsbury on your team. We use words like BABIP, FIP, RBI. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent on fantasy baseball…

Ellsbury is a few good men, um, man– Well, you get the idea.

Rangers, Nelson Cruz Agree To Two-Year Deal

Tim Dierkes — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 18:50:05 +0000

Nelson Cruz passed his physical, and his two-year deal with the Rangers is worth $16MM plus incentives, MLBTR has learned. The ACES client had an arbitration hearing scheduled for next week.

Cruz, 31, hit .263/.312/.509 with 29 home runs in 513 plate appearances last year, adding eight more homers in 70 postseason PAs. The right fielder's arbitration case seemingly had some bearing on those of Adam Jones and Alex Gordon, who remain unsigned.

Cruz will be eligible for free agency upon the completion of his two-year deal. His .540 slugging percentage since 2008 ranks sixth in MLB among those with at least 1500 plate appearances. Health has been the only obstacle for the late-blooming Cruz, who has averaged 120 regular season games over the past three years.

The Rangers extended shortstop Elvis Andrus yesterday, so Mike Napoli is their only remaining unsigned arbitration eligible player. Napoli's hearing is scheduled for Wednesday of next week, with a $3.2MM salary spread.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Orioles Notes: Jones, Kim, Davis

Ben Nicholson-Smith — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 18:48:18 +0000

The Orioles won their arbitration hearing against Brad Bergesen, so the right-hander will earn $800K in 2012. Center fielder Adam Jones is the team’s lone unsigned arbitration eligible player and his hearing is scheduled for February 17th. Here’s the latest on the Orioles...

The sense is Jones and the Orioles could settle before next Friday, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun tweets. The Orioles offered $5MM, and Jones asked for $7.4MM. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes discussed Jones, Nelson Cruz and Alex Gordon yesterday.
The Orioles haven't lost an arbitration hearing since Ben McDonald and Scott Boras defeated them in 1995, Connolly tweets.
The Korean Baseball Association has banned Orioles scouts from attending its games in response to Baltimore's deal with 17-year-old left-hander Kim Seong-min, Yonhap News reports. The KBA told MLB that any team that repeats the Orioles' deal will also be banned.
First baseman Chris Davis shouldn't worry that his job is on the line, even if the Orioles complete a deal with free agent first baseman/DH Nick Johnson, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun writes.