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The Return of Johan Santana

2012-06-02T10:51:00.000-04:00

Friday night Johan Santana threw not only the first no hitter of his career, but also the first in Mets history. After missing all of 2011 with shoulder surgery Santana has returned and pitched very well through 11 games including the no-hitter, but should the velocity issues be any concern or can he continue to pitch at this level?

Since 2008 Santana has lost nearly one mile pre hour from his fastball each season. He's also lost similar amounts on his slider and change-up. This season his fastball is about 88 miles per hour and his change-up is down to 77 miles per hour. His change-up motion has always been amazing though and hitters still appear to be fooled by the pitch.

In his career 37 percent of changes resulted in a whiff, but in 2012 that rate is up to 41 percent. The same can be said for his fastball and slider though this season. Why are hitters having such trouble connecting with his stuff this season even though it's considerably slower?

Batters are swinging far fewer against Santana this season at 46 percent swing rate from a career rate against of 50 percent. When they do swing they are making fair contact at 74 percent, but that is down from a career rate of 77 percent. Santana is only hitting the zone 46 percent according to Pitch f/x though, which is league average.

There doesn't appear to be any huge trend except hitters are still struggling to hit the change-up and slider and Santana is making the pitches he needs. Here is a graph explaining how Santana is getting better when he falls behind. The first table here shows Santana when there is any count in the game:

    Pitch     Counts  Ball   Call St Swings  Fouls  Whiffs   BIP
Fourseam (FA)     373 32.17% 20.38%  45.84%  19.57%  8.85%  17.96%
  Sinker (SI)     122 35.25% 19.67%  45.08%  20.49% 10.66%  13.93%
  Slider (SL)     144 37.50% 12.50%  49.31%  11.81% 16.67%  20.83%
Changeup (CH)     168 44.05% 10.12%  44.05%  12.50% 18.45%  13.10%

Now when we compare any count that has two balls and any number of strikes we can see Santana is working even more effectively.

    Pitch     Counts  Ball   Call St Swings  Fouls  Whiffs   BIP
Fourseam (FA)      79 24.05% 21.52%  54.43%  24.05% 11.39%  18.99%
  Sinker (SI)      24 12.50%  4.17%  83.33%  45.83%         37.50%
  Slider (SL)      26 23.08%  3.85%  73.08%  30.77% 26.92%  15.38%
Changeup (CH)      26 42.31%  3.85%  53.85%  11.54% 23.08%  19.23%

*I chose two ball counts since his three ball counts is a smaller sample so far.

Every pitch except the change is less likely to be a ball and much more likely to induce a swing. With all these extra swings he's still seeing a higher rate of whiffs and foul balls. I would need to look at some league average data to confirm if this is "normal" rate of change for pitching with two ball counts, but it's still quite impressive.

I'm still quite amazed how dominant Santana has been so far this season, but the numbers back him up so far. It'll be interesting to see if he can continue to strikeout this many hitters, but even with a small regression in strikeouts he's still going to be a great option this season. His no-hitter was a great moment last night for himself and the franchise, but don't think you need to sell high on the great moment. I expect the great season to continue for Santana.

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Players to Add: Daniel Nava

2012-06-01T21:54:00.000-04:00

In my DL post today I discussed Daniel Nava as a short term option for the injury to Matt Kemp. I'm willing to go a bit further and say Nava should be owned in a few more leagues. Currently Nava is owned in 21 percent of ESPN leagues, but until the Red Sox are forced to make some choices with Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury returning I would be willing to add and play Nava to cover injuries or a traded outfielder.

In 21 games so far Nava has walked in 17.6 percent of his plate appearances. That puts him third among all hitters behind only Adam Dunn and Joey Votto so far this season. This plate discipline is something Nava has been developing over the past few seasons.

In 2010 Nava held a walk rate of 8 percent in Triple-A and 10 percent in the majors. The Red Sox never needed Nava in 2011, but his walk rate continued to climb with a 13.4 percent back at Triple-A. He also made some strides in contact with a 17 percent strikeout rate in that season.

The Red Sox had no reason to plan to use Nava this season and he ended up being the seventh option placed in the outfield. In 27 games in Triple-A before the call-up his stat line was an impressive .316/.421/.505. He's continued that in the majors with a .277/.424/.477 stat line.

There are some things not to expect with Nava though. His numbers are over his head at this point, but where he will regress to is unknown. His greatest HR total was split between levels in 2010 with 11 and that year he stole a combined 5 bases. Last year though he was able to hit 10 home runs and steal 10 bases making him a fair five tool option.

Batting leadoff most nights for the Red Sox Nava is going to score plenty of runs just by being on base. Ignoring what happens when the Boston outfield gets crowded Nava should be a short term solution for teams in 5x5 or OBP leagues. With Kemp out, Markakis on the DL and both Ellsbury and Crawford still out Nava could help a good number of teams. Obviously he is a must in any AL-only league.

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The DL Continues to Claim Victims

2012-06-01T07:00:00.000-04:00

After taking several names the other day the DL is back to claim Matt Kemp and Troy Tulowitzki. Both players are dealing with lower body strains. These are again significant blows to fantasy teams by taking top level talent out of your lineup.

Matt Kemp - OF

This is a re injury of the same hamstring and Kemp suggested he expects to miss a month now. This is a huge setback for his owners as he has picked up right were he left off last season. Actually Kemp has been even better taking walks in nearly 15 percent of his plate appearances.

His power and contact have been great as well and if healthy he was sure to top 35 home runs. This injury though will probably drop his home runs below 30 for the season and the steals total might drop to the teens. A big drop for what was one of the best players entering 2012.

Troy Tulowitzki - SS

Tulo was a groin injury and MRI data is still unknown, but he is on the DL already. The early word is the injury is a first-degree strain and won't be long term. That's good news, but like hamstrings he could be limited when he returns.

This is another knock for fantasy teams as Tulowitzki was on target for similar numbers to 2011 and this will hurt his chances of coming anywhere near those numbers. Until we know the timetable for his return we can't tell how bad this will hurt his totals, but for now move him to your DL spot.

Available options: Manny Ramirez - Not a great chice, but a long shot; Daniel Nava - Not great long term, but really playing well in his role; Short Stop is a bit harder to fill - Elliot Johnson or Sean Rodriguez would be the best options available in most leagues.

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Handling the Kevin Youkilis - Will Middlebrooks Situation

2012-05-31T06:30:00.000-04:00

As a Kevin Youkilis owner I added Will Middlebrooks for his DL stint and benefited from his fast start. Now though the situation is murky and if you have one or both you might be wondering who to start day to day.

So far the only bonus has been Youkilis has found himself with first base eligibility in most leagues after getting a few games there. He's also hit better than before the injury and is starting to show some plate discipline with a walk rate now above 11 percent in May.

Middlebrooks certainly doesn't have anything like that level of plate discipline, but his power has played very well so far. The bad news is eventually his lack of walks and his frightening strikeout rate of 30 percent is going to catch up to him. He won't be a bad player, but there is no way Middlebrooks is a .300 hitter with a full season of at bats.

Many in Boston think the Red Sox are looking to trade Youkilis and install Middlebrooks as the current third baseman. The Red Sox shouldn't rush to do this and neither should fantasy owners. Middlebrooks BABIP stands at .404 right now and his projected ZiPs line for the full season is 17 HR, .266 AVE/.302 OBP.

If you own Youkilis expect him to be in the lineup nearly every day, but if you have another option in daily leagues try to play someone on his off days. His trade value won't be good enough to move, but if he stays healthy you should keep him anyway.

On the other hand I would play the Middlebrooks hype and before his average starts to fall try to get something for him. His power will be worth owning, but the rest is not worth forcing him in your lineup.

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Chris Sale as Cy Young Candidate

2012-05-30T07:59:00.001-04:00

My latest piece is up at The Hardball Times discussing how good Chris Sale has been as a starter. Head over and check it out

Chris Sale from reliever to ace

Timing a Manny Ramirez Pickup

2012-05-30T06:30:00.000-04:00

While Roy Oswalt is signed he probably won't be immediately ready, but the Athletics are suggesting Manny Ramirez could be recalled as early as Friday. He is technically eligible to complete his suspension on Wednesday, but the team feels he might need some more time.

The big question is will he get the playing time and can he still be a valuable fantasy player. I'm not so sure yet and I wouldn't add Manny in my leagues just yet. His power is yet to be found and without that he's not going to add much to your team. In Triple-A he has totalled zero extra base hits in eight games so far.

That is certainly a small sample, but not even a double yet has to be worrying. Top that off with having to head to Oakland and you have to expect Ramirez won't be supplying fantasy teams with many home runs.

The Athletics don't exactly have a loaded outfield with only Josh Reddick being the player who couldn't be moved out of the starting lineup. Coco Crisp and Seth Smith have been near replacement level giving Ramirez the potential to find a spot if he shows them something.

Ramirez is currently owned in 1.5 percent of ESPN leagues and that amount will rise on the announcement he is called up to the Athletics. I wouldn't grab him except perhaps in a AL only league. Otherwise I don't have the faith he can hit enough home runs or for enough average to be valuable to most teams.

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Injuries are Wild: Roy Halladay, Dustin Pedroia and Jered Weaver

2012-05-29T19:46:00.002-04:00

Update: Pedroia has a torn thumb muscle, but is going to try a splint or brace and give it a go. If it doesn't work he'll be out three to four weeks.

Let's hope no one had this whole group, but with the loss of Roy Halladay, Dustin Pedroia and Jered Weaver there are plenty of fantasy owners scrambling to fix their team this week. The first question is where to look and the second is how serious are these injuries?

Roy Halladay - SP

The only confirmed DL stint of the group it's expected Halladay will be out six to eight weeks while resting up a strained shoulder. Halladay has not been his normal dominating self and this injury could explain his loss in velocity this season. The good news for fantasy owners is this injury is not season ending and no surgery is needed.

As long as the strain is healed and Halladay returns some time in August he is well worth holding one of your DL spots. If your league has no DL spots your going to have to keep a bench spot for Halladay as just two months of him is probably better than three to four months of any waiver wire pickup you could find.

Dustin Pedroia - 2B

The news is all rumors at this point, but at the time of writing this Pedroia had an MRI and the results indicate he will miss a month. No exact injury is tied to this time table and the seriousness of the injury is unknown. The long term effects would be unknown as well. Honestly all you can do right now is push Pedroia to the bench and find a 2B fill in.

Once the injury is announced we can address his 2012 prospects, but right now a time table of one month should put him on your DL roster or to the bench. The only concern would be the injury is his thumb and causes power or hitting problems for much of 2012 when he returns.

Jered Weaver - SP

Back spasms and Weaver describing the pain as "It felt like somebody came up from behind and stabbed me" is not good news. He's already on the DL and should be done the same on any fantasy roster. He was having an MRI on Tuesday, but no announcement was made about the severity of the injury from the MRI results yet.

This one I'm a bit more concerned about. Back injuries will surely not be rushed and while the Angels really can't afford to have Weaver out they also can't rush him back. Don't do anything with Weaver until the MRI results are announced, but be prepared for a DL stint that goes longer than the 14 days and a minor league stint.

Pickup Value Options

Obviously there is no one on the waiver wire equal to any of these guys, but some of the guys I have discussed recently worth adding : Roy Oswalt - Could take a few weeks still; Andy Pettitte - Still available in plenty of leagues; Brian Roberts - Is slated to return from a 20 game minor league stint on June 11 (although the Orioles could ask the league for an extension)

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Correlation is not Causation

2012-05-29T06:30:00.000-04:00

Every day some writer tries to combine to stats or reanalyze an old stat and find a way to use it to say what pitchers are good and which are poor. I must admit I've tried to do this. The problem is once you think you have a system in place you need a alternative way to prove your "theory" works the way you think.

I mention this because over at ESPN on the fantasy site AJ Mass posted an article using pitches/GSe to rank pitchers. Obviously pitchers with low pitch totals are likely struggling and getting pulled from starts early, but with only 2 months in the books I would argue that sample size could limit the value of this stat.

Lets take a look at his final list:

Player          Tm   Pit/GS Pit/BF    QS%      W      L    ERA
Ted Lilly       LAD    88.4    3.5     75      5      1   3.14
Kevin Correia   PIT    86.3   3.53     67      1      5   4.30
Edwin Jackson   WAS    89.8    3.5     56      1      2   3.38
Jeanmar Gomez   CLE    89.5   3.81     50      3      3   3.94
Bartolo Colon   OAK    86.9   3.32     46      4      5   4.52
Mike Leake      CIN    88.2   3.64     44      1      5   5.47
Blake Beavan    SEA    87.1   3.66     44      2      4   4.38
Ross Detwiler   WAS      85   3.71     44      3      3   3.88
Luke Hochevar   KC       89   3.87     40      3      5   6.19
Carl Pavano     MIN    84.4   3.43     40      2      4   5.46
Erik Bedard     PIT    85.2   3.89     30      3      5   3.12
Chris Volstad   CHC    87.1   3.65     13      0      6   7.46

His reasoning was in a points league you won't get consistent wins from these guys since they aren't getting quality starts (a useless stat) and wins. I would argue there is at least three pitchers on that list I would add to my team if I needed a pitcher and this Pitches/GS is useless after only 8-10 games started.

Looking first at Ted Lilly we see his strikeouts are down this season and he is relying on a very low HR/FB rate. If his strikeouts don't start picking up you should be worried, but it's still to early for that.

The fact that Edwin Jackson is here on this list reminds me to not read much into it. I understand he only has one win, but he is dominating right now with a solid K/BB of 4.17. Besides if this Pitch/GS and QS% can predict better winners, he should t least be near the top of the list instead of just one win.

I like a few more pitchers on here including Ross Detwiler if he gets a starting job back, but would include Carl Pavano as a "sleeper" right now. His ERA is terrible and he can barely get wins with the Twins, but his numbers will settle down and although his strikeouts are not a big help his control is great. He's walking just over a batter every nine innings. Even once his numbers settle he's still a fringe fantasy pitcher, but if your struggling to fill a spot you could do a lot worse.

It would be a shame to see fantasy managers throwing these pitchers into trades just based on a single stat. Especially such a volatile one that could change with a single start. If Lilly throws 120 pitches in his next start he has 91.1 Pitches/GS and is no longer below the cutoff. Even 110 in his next start gets him above 90.

For the most part Pitches/GS will correlate with results as managers will pull starters earlier the worse they throw. In a small sample size though it could be one or two games when a pitcher was injured or pulled and suddenly they break into this group. I would avoid a list like this unless you can prove why they have been unable to throw 90+ pitches a game and that it will continue to be an issue going forward.

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Chein-Ming Wang without the Skill

2012-05-28T07:58:00.000-04:00

In an interesting move the Washingtons Nationals have decided to pull Ross Detwiler from the rotation after a few poor starts and replace him with Chein-Ming Wang. The decision seems a bit rash, but can Washington as well as fantasy owners expect anything good from Wang after years of injuries and mediocre results.

Never known for striking anyone out Wang has largely been a one trick pitcher. His ground-ball rate has been outstanding. Although this is where the questions arise. Here is Wang's ground ball rate since 2005 in his rookie season.

Year      GB%    FIP
2005      64%    4.20
2006      63%    3.91
2007      58%    3.79
2008      55%    3.74
2009      53%    5.38
2011      53%    4.57
2012      45%    7.33

There sure is a trend here and you can see the results in his FIP that has gone from solid to replacement level in this time and as expected still can't get any strikeouts. The question here is what is Wang unable to do now and can he get the ground ball rate back enough to be better than Ross Detwiler?

With the great ground ball rate he must work down in the done a lot. You would also expect a pitcher like this to use a sinker, but Wang has been the opposite. Wang was barely using a sinker, but has slowly turned his fastball into a sinker.

Year    FB%    SI%
2007    73%     1%
2008    71%     7%
2009    56%    23%
2011     3%    68%
2012     0%    82%

While this might be an attempt to work lower in the zone and get back to his ground ball ways it just hasn't worked. His sinker has been less effective at getting ground balls. In his career his four seam fastball, curve and slider have been more effective at getting ground balls.

Without a solid ground ball pitch Wang is going to be extremely frustrating for fantasy owners and not worth owning even in the National League. It's a shame as Detwiler was being fairly effect this season and had a good, but not great K/BB of 2.40. In NL-only leagues I would avoid Wang and if Detwiler gets the job back go with him if you need the innings.

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The Numbers Say Add Jake Arrieta

2012-05-26T07:00:00.000-04:00

While scouring the waiver wire I noticed a pitcher stand out with a nice K/9 a very good K/BB, but of course you stare at the 4.87 ERA and can understand the limited ownership. That pitcher is Baltimore Orioles starter Jake Arrieta. He's owned in only 6.2 percent of ESPN leagues, but should you trust Arrieta for your fantasy teams.

Arrieta has two years of data in the majors, but nothing quite like this level of control yet. Last year his strikeouts were similar while he walked 4.45 batters every nine innings. His K/BB was 1.58 and he was essentially a replacement level pitcher.

This season through 10 games his ability to limit walks is striking as his BB/9 is at 2.36 and his K/BB is a very solid 3.31. The sample size is still small, but 255 batters faced is a fair number. Based on the data his FIP is 3.99, xFIP 3.47 and SIERA 3.52.

Arrieta has been hampered by a poor LOB% at 66 percent and the long ball with a HR/FB of 14.8 percent. These numbers are sure to regress to normal and Arrieta would be much better if he can continue to match the strikeout and walk numbers.

Speaking of those is he doing anything else differently this season? The first thing Arrieta has done is hit the zone with a 52 percent Zone Pitch f/x% compared to only 47 percent previously. At the same time hitters are swinging less and making worse contact.

That alone wouldn't be enough to convince me he's made strides though. The good news is his stuff has gotten better so far. His fastball and sinker are up to 94 mph, which is over a mph faster than they were in 2011. This added velocity could be why hitters are failing to make contact on pitches out of the zone. Based on the pitch f/x hitters have gone from 70 percent contact on pitches out of the zone to 60 percent. The hitters are swinging at the same rate though.

If Arrieta truly is making the step forward this year he makes a solid addition at this point. Watch his next few starts looking for continued signs of control. The ERA should start to fall and you don't want to wait until everyone else is adding him. On the other hand if he starts walking hitters and his BB/9 nears 4 then it's time to let him go.

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Timing of a Roy Oswalt Pick-up

2012-05-25T07:00:00.001-04:00

The Roy Oswalt situation is one of the weirder ones in baseball and is a big question mark for fantasy owners. Obviously he has a high opinion of his skill, but at this point his "leverage", if he ever had any, is fading fast. He limited his potential teams and set a fairly high contract demand. He is continuing to demand high money, but if he does get a job he's a sure pickup in any league he's eligible for, but when should you add him?

Even if Oswalt is in great shape he won't be thrown straight into the rotation for any team. This is going to cost you as even a rumor of signing will likely result in his ownership numbers increasing in leagues with highly active managers.

He's currently owned in 9.3 percent of ESPN leagues and surely a "signing" announcement would put that around the 40-50 percent mark within a day or two. Even if one of these auditions results in rumors of interest his ownership will jump.

The early read already is Oswalt is a fit for Texas, but financials are still a hold up. I don't think that's enough to add him unless your really in a tough spot, but even then your looking at possibly a month until he actually starts. I would guess nothing less than 3 starts before a major league start or over two weeks.

Can you really defend a non DL pitcher on your roster for 2 weeks without throwing a game? Most teams couldn't unless perhaps your team is over in your innings or games started limit. Thats' not to say I don't like Oswalt, but I just don't find his overall value worth the dead roster spot.

Speaking of his value for those who decide to add him his OLIVER projection gives him a 3.77 ERA with 6 wins and 81 strikeouts. That wouldn't account for pitching in a park like Philadelphia or Texas, which should add to his ERA, but Texas would probably add to his wins.

Looking over the available list in ESPN I see current Rangers starter Matt Harrison is owned in only 22 percent of leagues. His projections for the rest of 2012 according to OLIVER look like what I would expect from Oswalt in Texas; 4.06 ERA, 8 wins and 88 strikeouts. An owner looking at Oswalt would be best served to add Harrison now and look at Oswalt only if available much closer to when he would start in the majors.

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Pedro Alvarez at Replacement Level

2012-05-24T06:00:00.000-04:00

I was a big supporter of Pedro Alvarez when he reached the majors in 2010. Sure he had some contact issues, but based on his minor league numbers and that 2010 season he looked ready to become a top 5 third baseman.

That breakout never happened and things got ugly in a hurry. In 2011 Alvarez continued to strikeout at 30 percent of his at bats and walk at 9 percent of his plate appearances. The two things that changed were his BABIP dropped from .341 to .272 and his power completely disappeared. He was swinging a lot more that season and swinging at more pitches out of the zone.

Like many hitters in their second season pitchers adjusted and Alvarez seamed to have trouble making any adjustments. Heading into 2012 the expectations were largely gone from Alvarez. So far the results have been mixed at best.

His strikeouts have actually gone up and he is striking out 36 percent of the time. His walk rate is down slightly and he appears to be swinging for the fences at every at bat. The other problem is pitchers have largely figured him out. His pitch values show he has been a fastball hitter with really no ability to hit any other pitch consistently. Here is his pitch value per 100 pitches compared to the 2011 and 2012 league averages:

Season Team   wFB/C  wSL/C  wCT/C  wCB/C  wCH/C  wSF/C  wKN/C
2010   Pirates0.25   0.96   -0.21  -0.33  0.9    1.73   -6.88
2011   Pirates0.51   -3.97  -1.84  -3.14  -4.75  -7.5
2012   Pirates0.84   -3.2   -2.3   -0.22  0      3.17
Total  - - -  0.42   -1.64  -1.22  -1.27  -1.38  -2.16  -6.88

Season        wFB/C  wSL/C  wCT/C  wCB/C  wCH/C  wSF/C  wKN/C
2012          0.14   -0.55  -0.05  0.05   0.05   -0.52  0.07
2011          0.1    -0.5   -0.18  0.13   -0.02  -0.01  0.79

If you haven't read pitch values before this is a stat to tell you how many runs a hitter or pitcher added (or subtracted) from his team against a particular pitch. In this case it's averaged over 100 pitches to even out things. The other thing is just looking at the numbers without league averages doesn't tell you much since if everyone was similar then it's not note worthy.

In this case Alvarez is significantly worse than league average against every pitch except the fastball based on his career averages. Pitchers haven't been slow to notice this either. In 2012 Alvarez is seeing an amazingly low number of fastballs (48% compared to NL average of 57%). Until Alvarez can figure out how to combat the off speed stuff he's going to continue to struggle at the plate.

Alvarez has at least had some power this season with 7 home runs, but the .203 batting average is a huge drag on his value. Essentially the only value he has right now is home runs in fantasy and should be approached as such. While he could hit 25-30 home runs his other stats are low enough that he's still fringe in all but NL Only leagues with CI needs.

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Getting Squeezed and Fantasy Advantage

2012-05-23T06:00:00.000-04:00

Yesterday for The Hardball Times I did a piece identifying Daniel Bard as a pitcher getting squeezed by umpires. I was looking at the raw zone numbers accounting for Umpire calls and the Pitch f/x zone data. Surprisingly I found this:

For comparison, the league average pitcher has a 45.4 percent in-zone by umpires and according to PITCHf/x they're throwing 45.4 percent in the zone.

I even checked a few years data and every season on average the two values matched. That means that while not all umpires are perfect they do get it right on the whole. What does this mean for fantasy though? Instead of breaking down FIP vs ERA or looking at line drive rates for struggling pitchers in small samples we have something that might tell us some relevant data to inform us who might be getting squeezed by umpires.

Now none of that means individual players move to a perfect split. Last season Cliff Lee was 55.3 percent as by the umpires, but 59.7 percent by pitch f/x. So you need to look at historical data as well. I took the early 2012 data and calculated CvUZ (Computer vs Umpire Zone). This is simply the Zone% calculated by Pitch f/x minus the Zone%. I then kept anyone less than -2 percentage points and above or near 8 percentage points.

Name                Team        Zone%   Zone%(pfx)  CvU
Stephen Strasburg   Nationals   49.30%  46.80%      -2.50%
Mike Minor          Braves      50.80%  48.40%      -2.40%
Matt Moore          Rays        50.70%  48.40%      -2.30%
Wade Miley          Dbacks      48.40%  46.20%      -2.20%
Jered Weaver        Angels      39.50%  47.40%      7.90%
Ryan Vogelsong      Giants      38.60%  46.50%      7.90%
Justin Verlander    Tigers      42.50%  50.70%      8.20%
Henderson Alvarez   Blue Jays   48.80%  57.20%      8.40%
Barry Zito          Giants      41.50%  49.90%      8.40%
Josh Beckett        Red Sox     43.50%  51.90%      8.40%
Hiroki Kuroda       Yankees     33.80%  45.40%      11.60%

Those negative values mean pitchers are getting a slightly larger zone. I don't think 2.5 percentage points is a lot and I definitely wouldn't suggest Stephen Strasburg is going to start struggling.

On the other hand 11 percentage points is way out of the norm and Hiroki Kuroda has a strong case that umpires are giving him a tough time at the plate. Looking at his strike zone chart I would agree. As you can see below there are quite a few green squares (balls) in the zone. Don't pay to much attention to the strikes as they include swings and fouls.

Kuroda is having his worst season since coming to the US with the lowest K/9 and highest BB/9 of any season. Based on this there is reason to be confident of his regression to the mean. Meaning I fully expect Kuroda to get better and would be a buy for me.

More research will be needed to find what level of CvUZ is significant to expect a regression based solely on umpire influence. Just based on my own intuition I would say this level of 8 percentage points or more is something to build a case for future "regression". The effect of "regression" in this case should supply at least better BB/9 numbers, but K/9 could improve as well.

I would also like to caution against sticking umpires with all the blame. The catcher could be an effect as well as other factors. Also I still am impressed on the whole umpires are doing very good on a league average basis. Over the next few weeks I'll revisit this for new names to target/move and is this analysis beneficial to fantasy owners.

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Time to Repair my Suggestion

2012-05-22T07:00:00.000-04:00

Well not a day or two after my suggestion to add Mark Ellis he is not only placed on the DL, but also came within hours of losing his leg. I'm not the superstitious type, but I hope to not have that happen again.

Unfortunately Ellis was the best on base option you are likely to find at the MI spot right now. You're going to have to look elsewhere in your stats. Being this is MI you have to have very generous expectations and not expect to much.

Looking at a list of ESPN availability and players in available in 75 percent of leagues or more I would suggest two players. Neither is going to hold it all season and when players come back off the DL you want to add them to replace.

The first is Tampa Bay utility infielder Sean Rodriguez. While he is only part time he is surely earning his at bats and he can currently man three infield positions (2B, SS, 3B). He's lost some of his prestige, but Rodriguez hit 29 home runs in Triple-A while a member of the Angels system. That is going to set the bar a bit high, but a 10/10 season for a MI pickup is not to bad.

The other option is Zack Cozart of the Cincinnati Reds. He's lost some time lately due to his poor average, but he looks like another MI capable of a 10/10 season with the rest of the stats not very helpful. Cozart also had some Triple-A pop with 17 home runs in 2010.

Neither player is going to help much in average, runs or RBIs. The big area is versatility for Rodriguez as well as pop for both. Top that off with a few steals and it's about the best you can ask for from the free agent pool right now. Now if either of these players come close to losing a limb I'm not picking MI players anymore.

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Josh Reddick on the West Coast

2012-05-21T06:30:00.000-04:00

After 41 games in the 2012 season Josh Reddick has sure made Billy Beane look the genius again. Not only is Reddick a top 20 outfielder this season, but he has had no problem facing the pitcher friendly confines of Oakland Coliseum.

In 18 games at home Reddick has 5 home runs and a SLG of .548 compared to 6 home runs on the road. His on base percentage has been below average, but that's one skill he's never had even in the minors. Partly the reason the Red Sox thought they could part with Reddick was his poor on base skills.

That might have been short sighted though as his power seems to have grown enough to cover for his walk rate. His current wOBA stands at .365 and his OPS is .846. Both of those numbers are still based on a small sample size, but that doesn't mean you should go selling high on Reddick just yet.

Looking at his ZiPs rest of season projection Reddick has the following numbers: 14 HR, 50 R, 40 RBI, 5 SB, .243 AVE, .296 OBP That has it's merits, but the average and OBP will hurt those in either league. His seasons totals with those numbers would be: 24 HR, 77 R, 62 RBI, 9 SB, .251 AVE, .304 OBP.

Not top twenty numbers, but not bad for someone who came fairly cheap on draft day. If you think you can get a good deal for a top 50 player in return at a position of need I would do it. I don't think he can keep up the power numbers at home and eventually will even out to the average to below-average outfielder with a bit of pop we expected.

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Diagnosing the Adrian Gonzalez Power Problem

2012-05-20T06:00:00.000-04:00

I can't imagine any league didn't have Adrian Gonzalez drafted by the end of the first round and everyone expected a healthy and power hitting first baseman. That hasn't been the case so far as Gonzalez haas 3 homers in 39 games and would be on track for only 12 this season at that pace. That obviously wouldn't be acceptable and highly unlikely, but how much should everyone expect and reset their expectations.

Gonzalez has not had anything go right at the plate so far. He has his lowest walk rate since 2007 and highest strikeout rate since 2008. An interesting number in his swing and contact rates is that he has made a very high rate of contact on pitches out of the zone. He is hitting 75 percent of the pitches he swings at out of the zone, but only hits 60 percent for his career.

That may seem like a good thing with extra contact, but these out of the zone pitches are sure to be pitches he won't be hitting over or off any outfield walls. The last few years pitchers have been less willing to face Gonzalez and he has seen fewer and fewer pitches in the zone. This season 40 percent of pitches have been in the zone.

Gonzalez has been swinging more at these pitches as well. Since 2009 when he had his best walk total Gonzalez has been swinging at more than 31 percent of pitches out of the zone. His walk rate has fallen for three straight seasons since 2009 and should be just as big a concern for Gonzalez owners as the power numbers.

Obviously 39 games doesn't mean a hole lot, but you have to adjust your expectations fro Gonzalez. While owners surely expected 30-35 home runs for Adrian this year you're looking at a lower total. Using ZiPs projection for the rest of 2012 you can expect Gonzalez to finish 2012 with 24 home runs.

That's not to say he couldn't go crazy next week and pop 4-5 homers in a week and be back on track for 30 or more, but it's not what you should base your team expectations off of. There is no way you can move Gonzalez at this time, but you also can't bench him either. You have to sit this one out and give him through June before doing anything major.

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Thought's on Kerry Wood's Retirement

2012-05-19T11:06:00.002-04:00

As someone who started really following baseball and statistics in the mid to late 90's I was a big fan of Kerry Wood. I'm also a closet Cubs fan, so when Wood and Mark Prior first started I htought of the great things to come. Then of course Dusty Baker went crazy with them and the rest is history.

In Wood's first six seasons in Chicago he totalled 19.6 fWAR and was on his way to great things, but then injuries hit along with a move to the bullpen and he would never total 100 innings in a season again.

He did show a flash of greatness again in 2008 with a 2.2 fWAR in Chicago before leaving to join the Indians in 2009. He would be a serviceable reliever with very good strikeout numbers, but some questionable control.

On Friday though after it was announced this would be his last game Wood made one last appearance and finish his career with a strikeout. The team allowed Wood to leave with the strikeout as his last batter faced and in the middle of the inning so the focus could be on him once more.

This is what baseball is about and for those who say sabermetrics guys don't leave feeling in the game I'll say I did have a moment watching this:

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Welcome Back Pettitte

2012-05-19T06:00:00.000-04:00

The Yankees didn't think they would need Andy Pettitte this early in 2012, but should fantasy owners do the same. After two starts Pettitte has been a mixed bag, but the second start left us wanting more. Is there enough reason to trust Pettitte on your squad?

The start against Seattle was concerning as Pettitte only totalled two strikeouts in 6.1 IP. His velocity was down from 2010 at 88 mph for his fastball and he walked three batters. Throw in two home runs and you have a terrible start for the Pettitte come back.

In the minors Pettitte struggled above A ball, but in four starts across all three levels he had an ERA of 3.71 and a K/BB of 4.33. It's fair to say he was a as good as any other option to throw with Freddy Garcia and David Phelps doing nothing this season to earn the spot.

Friday night Pettitte faced a potent Cincinnati Reds lineup in New York and Pettitte looked masterful. He totalled nine strikeouts and only one walk in eight innings. He only allowed four hits in the game and looked very good.

His fastball touched 90 mph and he worked all his pitches. He threw a first pitch strike 68.9 percent of the time and also was solid with nearly 50 percent ground balls.

It's only one start, but Pettitte gave no reason to believe he wouldn't be worth adding in most fantasy leagues now. He pitches in front of a great offense and although he left baseball for a year his stuff in 2010 was solid and he was leaving on top instead of in decline.

I wouldn't drop anyone for Pettitte yet and don't expect this level of strikeouts on a regular basis. If you're suffering from injuries in your rotation and have an open spot or need wins this is a good pickup. With Pettitte available in nearly 90 percent of ESPN leagues it's highly likely he's available in yours.

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The Resurgent Mark Ellis

2012-05-18T07:00:00.000-04:00

Never an elite fantasy option and also heavily injury prone Mark Ellis was left undrafted in most leagues and still is only owned in 30 percent of ESPN leagues. His career is a series of ups and downs thought, but so far in 2012 it's been a solid start for the second baseman and a good bet for fantasy owners.

He's never been much of a power threat with 19 home runs in 2007 being his peak and he would be a long shot to top 10 home runs this season. The one thing he has done very well this season is get on base. In the first 35 games he has a 12 percent walk rate.

His career rate stands at 8 percent, but he had been better earlier in his career before injuries started. It looks like in 2007 he started to swing significantly more as his scene by his swing %.

After five seasons of higher swing rates and falling contact rates Ellis finally started with those levels turning the other way. Pitchers have also approached him differently with an extremely low rate of first strike pitches.

The data is limited with only 35 games played, but so far the .382 OBP has been a huge boost for Ellis and his owners. Even those in leagues not using OBP should be glad as the extra chances have gotten him a solid amount of runs scored and he's on pace for 12 steals as well.

He's not going to be a top option, but those in leagues with MI and an injured starter like Alex Gonzalez or Jason Bartlett you could do worse than Ellis. I would take a chance on Ellis in these cases and while playing in LA hasn't given him much of a boost in regards to home park it's possible the change in league might.

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xFIP versus FIP and a switch for RotoSavants

2012-02-23T15:00:00.000-05:00

Ever since this blog launched I have been using certain numbers to show luck and skill to find the best players in fantasy baseball. We have discussed many of them and you can find my favorites at this post. These are the ones I use first to rate a player.

One of the important ones for pitchers is FIP, but as we have discussed there are some holes in the numbers. FIP does not account for HR/FB% or FB% numbers. I was stubborn to switch to any other analysis since I liked the results and I knew to look for these factors.

I have decided to switch to xFIP, which is an adjustment of the original FIP. FIP was created by Tom Tango who was nice enough to talk with us earlier this year. The creation of xFIP was just an adjustment of the HR in the calculation done by Dave Studemen at THT. Let's look at the calculations:

FIP = (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP

So this leaves a stat(HR) that is effected by luck and variance.

xFIP = ((FB*.11)*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP

Looking this over the big change is a removal of HR for fly balls allowed times .11, which was the league average HR/FB. How much of a change did this make in a large amount of data?

Colin Wyers also at THT wrote on that today and found the root mean square error for each projection (including tRA). His findings showed that ERA was the worst predictor of future ERA as we would all assume, but xFIP and tRA are slightly better than FIP. He assumes we should stick to larger projection systems, but that is not in the context of fantasy sports. In fantasy baseball we have a different requirement for statistical analysis and can use these much differently.

So from know on I will be using xFIP in my analysis and any differences between xFIP and ERA are more tightly linked to a factor of luck. We will still have the occasional case with low HR% or a Javier Vazquez case, but the analysis should be greatly improved overall. find Home Opener tickets for MLB games

Reader Email: Stretch Run Trade

2011-07-20T07:00:00.001-04:00

Joe wrote in to ask us how to improve his team for the stretch run and challenge for first.

A guy has offered me Todd Helton, Ubaldo Jimenez, Nick Swisher and Jered Weaver for Carl Crawford, Josh Hamilton and Mark Teixeira. Is this a good trade? I'm reluctant about this one!! I'm in a 10 team mixed league rotisserie. I am in the top 5 in all categories except SB, ERA, and WHIP...and could also use some more saves. I'm in sixth place 1 pt behind the fifth place team but 16.5 pts behind the 1st place team so I'm lookin to shake things up. Here's a few more players on my team: Uggla, JJ Hardy, Cuddyer, Konerko, Farnsworth, Gallardo, Hudson, Soria, CJ Wilson, Zimmerman, Lohse, and League. Here are some of his other players: Mauer, Kinsler, Ar Ramirez, Andrus, Longoria, Beltran, Morse, Pence, Bourn, D Price, Nathan, Axford, Felix Hernandez, and Beckett. Could you please help me form a good trade that makes sense and would help me the rest of the way. The other owner says almost everybody on his team is tradeable...he is in 9th place.

On first glance, Joe, this trade is not in your favor. One quick way I judge a trade like this is to rank the player on each side, line them up, and do a one for one comparison. Doing that for this team, I don't see how you can even break even. The competing team is clearly trying to buy low on Hamilton and Crawford's injury stints. Even if we say Teixeira and Weaver are a wash (and they aren't, the elite hitters are always more valuable than your elite pitchers), you're getting a raw deal. Jiminez's walk rate has ballooned since last year, Swisher would be more valuable if you were in an OBP league, but his sub .800 OPS isn't worth selling low on Crawford. If you didn't include Tex, I could see the overall trade being more fair.

However, here's my recommendation: if you need to make up ground in SB, ERA, WHIP, and saves, there's no reason to trade a guy who can help you there (Crawford) for it. Saves you can grab on the wire if needed. Guys change jobs and get traded in these next few weeks.

Try to isolate Hamilton in a 1 for 1 deal for a starter. It's a 10 team league, so you should be able to replace Hamilton's homeruns with a more cost effective option (Trumbo), and get another team to pay for the Hamilton pedigree for that elite pitcher. Start this off by offering Hamilton for Weaver. Advertise you are selling Hamilton for a starter. Remember, you can't sell your bats too low, you're only getting 10-12 starts from your new acquisition.

Ride out Crawford. He'll start hitting in Boston, and start running as well; he should easily bounce back for the 2nd half.

If you have any more questions, make sure to contact us on Twitter: @Rotosavants and @fenwayhotspur if you want to reach me directly. Good luck!

Daily Roto Pickups: July 15th

2011-07-15T11:12:00.003-04:00

Mark Trumbo 38% owned - I've talked about Trumbo's value before and while he's borderline replacement value in league with no CI his blend of solid power and occasional speed is definitely valuable in medium to deep leagues.

Michael Brantely 39% owned - Brantley's production so far has been more valuable according to baseball monster than that of OF's like Johnny Damon, Brett Gardner, Colby Rasmus, Bobby Abreu, and Ichiro. I'm not saying that he'll continue to be better than those guys but he's definitely ownable in more than 2/5ths of leagues.

Ryan Ludwick 35% owned - Ludwick is ranked just a bit below Brantley in terms of current value but most of that value is tied up in his 55 RBI. I would definitely be hesitant to pick a guy based on a stat that isn't much in his control, especially a guy who plays for the anemic Padres, but if you really need RBI then he's worth a flier.

Koji Uehara 22% owned - Even if you're not in a Holds league Uehara definitely has value. His peripherals are simply excellent, K/9 well over 11 and BB/9 under 2.00, and he's setting up for one of the worst closers in baseball. Count on him maintaining an ERA under 3.00 and WHIP under 1.00. If he starts to get the ball in the ninth it's just a bonus.

Mike Adams 36% owned - Speaking of RP, Mike Adams has been one of the most effective in the game for quite some time. His peripherals aren't quite as otherworldly as Uehara's but rock solid setup men are definitely an inefficiency in most FBB leagues. According to baseball monster Adams has provided standard league value of a borderline top 100 player so far this year. Any hitter, SP, or CL with such value would have been snatched up long ago; people just aren't valuing non-closer RP properly. You can take advantage of that inefficiency with guys like Adams and Uehara.

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Are the Blue Jays Still Aggressive on the Base Paths?

2011-07-14T07:00:00.000-04:00

Earlier this season I wrote a post about the speed exhibited by some of the Toronto Blue Jays here in which I wondered whether John Farrell's recklessness with his slower players would continue. Just a few weeks into the season guys like Aaron Hill and Travis Snider already had five steals. Some of us were wondering whether the new Jays philosophy involved ignoring the CS stat or whether Ferrell was just trying to use the element of surprise with those players before easing back on the throttle.

Looking back from the midpoint of the season we can see that this surge wasn't a John Farrell thing, it was an Aaron Hill thing. Hill now has eleven stolen bases, five more than his previous season high, and is on pace to swipe somewhere in the mid to high teens. If Hill is looking to partially compensate for his lack of power this year by running more then I'm all for it, after all, he's only been caught once.

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The All-Star Break

2011-07-12T19:25:00.002-04:00

So we've reached the (traditional) half-way mark in the baseball season. Players have risen and fallen (Bautista and Hanley, for example,) been called up and sent down (Trout and Rivera,) and gotten injured and recovered (Lester and Brian Wilson.)

Whether your team is at the top of the heap or looking up at the pack now's the time to reassess and make whatever changes are needed for the long haul. But before then let's take a look at some of the more interesting stories in fantasy baseball in the first half o '11.

Jose Bautista vs. the World. So the jury has a verdict and they've decided that Jose Bautista smells like the Hall of Fame. He's been the most valuable hitter in FBB according to baseballmonster.com and the fact that he provides most of his value without the help of the stolen base put him in company with Adrian Gonzalez as the only elite fantasy hitter without wheels. True, guys like Miggy, Prince, Votto, Konerko, and Berkman aren't exactly speedsters but the difference between Bautista and those guys right now is about the same as the difference between Votto and Mark Trumbo.

The elites are the elites. Looking on baseballmonster again at the top forty-eight players by value we find very few unexpected names. The single most surprising is probably that of Melky Cabrera and while there are others, such as Alex Gordon, Michael Young, Brennan Boesch, Josh Beckett, and James Shields, the bottom line is that there are relatively few total sleepers this year.

The SP are outshining the RP. I went into this season believing that strong closers had become undervalued in fantasy based on the ideas that closer are often as valuable as starters and that they tend to be easier to predict than starters. So far, I look like an idiot. And it's not just the purple striped button down and yellow slacks. The top thirteen performing pitchers are all starters and aside from Michael Pineda could all have been predicted to be top pitchers in '11 (if you're smart enough to predict good results from Beckett and Shields, that is, as was done by someone I know.) The top RP, on the other hand, are a bit of a rag tag bunch made up of Craig Kimbrel, Fernando Salas, Drew Storen, Joel Hanrahan, Johnny Venters, Kyle Farnsworth, Mike Adams, and Antonio Bastardo. There are some very talented gentleman in that group to be sure but you don't get a Brian Wilson, Jonathan Papelbon, or Mariona Rivera until the ninth best producing RP. Those who paid bottom dollar for saves this year have been laughing all the way to the bank.

Cheap SP's can fill out a rotation, but haven't broken into the elite. A smart drafter/waiver wire scourer could have cheaply picked up SP's like Jeff Karstens, Scott Baker, Josh Timlin, Cory Luebke, Erik Bedard, and Brandon Beachy among others but none of those guys are giving you truly stellar numbers. Good, yes. But if you want a pitched provided $25 plus in value this year not named Pineda, Shields, or Beckett you likely needed to spend top dollar for him at the draft.

With a nod to the second half, callups are running wild this year. With Mike Trout getting Major League at-bats already and the KC pair of Hosmer and Moustakas firmly entrenched in the Royals' lineup this may be the year that rookies and callups decide fantasy championships. Their affect on the pitching side of the ledger may be even more pronounced as guys like Pineda, Beachy, Kimbrel, and Venters have all become impact fantasy players. So who will we see next? Jennings in Tampa Bay? Montero in the Bronx? Chime in in the comments with who you think will be the next impact player called up in '11.

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Lopsided Keeper Value On The Block?

2011-06-27T10:38:00.008-04:00

We recently received an email from a reader about trading to lock up the title this year in a keeper league. Specifically, Mikey is wondering whether to trade away Jose Bautista in order to strengthen his SP rotation. Mikey is currently well ahead in HR, RBI, R, and TB, while leading in OBP but not by much. Understandably, he's been thinking about dealing from his strength, offense, to get a SP. He's currently in 1st place but doesn't feel like his lead is safe. The kicker is that he's playing in a keeper league in which he'd be able to keep Bautista in the 16th round next year. The best offers he's received so far are;

Deal 1) Bautista + Lohse for A-Gon + David Price
Deal 2) Bautista + Scherzer + Garza for Ryan Howard + Felix + Scott Baker

Mikey's current SP rotation is: Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Hudson, Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Max Scherzer, James Shields, and Erik Bedard

Below the Savants each take a crack at this particular puzzle.

Aaron: In a word, no and no. I think you can reject the second offer out of hand since the Bautista side is probably a touch stronger even without any consideration of the keeper value. I love Scott Baker but Garza and Scherzer have real value and while I'd rather have King Felix than either you're really not getting ahead much on this deal. Deal #1 is definitely better for you as A-Gon has a better track record and will almost certainly put up better RBI numbers than Bautista while you get a big upgrade going from Lohse to Price. Still, I can't get over the lost keeper value you're giving up. I ran a study on round values for one of my slightly deeper leagues earlier this year and found that a 16th round pick is worth about $6. If we assume that in your league a 16th round pick is worth about $5 and Bautista will be a $40-45 player next year then you're giving up $35-40 in value by trading him. Sure, that value doesn't affect this year's race but it's real value that you're losing, and that's assuming that you keep him for only one year. For this trade to be worth it I think you'd have to be getting a Halladay or Lincecum along with A-Gon, not just a David Price. Obviously that means that it's pretty unlikely that you can get a deal done that's good enough for both parties but that's a fact of life when it comes to keeper leagues. Just like in real baseball contract realities can make it very difficult to acquire certain players.

So try to hold on for this year, maybe targeting under-performing aces like Chris Carpenter, Ricky Nolasco, or Ryan Dempster. The head start you'll get for next year will more than make up for any nail-biting that you might have to endure over the next three months or so.

Lee: My feeling is simple. Keeper values exist to leverage a championship run. I'll always trade an awesome keeper if it locks up a win. A real win is much greater than 3 or 4 hypothetical ones. Still, there is some common sense to be had about how lopsided a keeper value can be.

Let's look at the first trade, specifically. Basically, you're trading the rights to Joey Bats in the 16th round for David Price; I say this because we'll make the assumption that Adrian and Bautista will be a wash for the remainder of the season.

My concern? Is one pitcher's 15-18 starts really going to help your ERA/WHIP that much, or are you just hedging your bets on cheap wins?

If we assume you're middle of the road, I'll peg your ERA at 3.8, and WHIP at 1.3, and you've used about half your innings. If we assume your 6 other starters perform as they have to this point, Price's FIP+xFIP average of 2.9 will only account for 1/7th of your remaining innings.

I'll pick a decent IP average, 1400. This means Price has saved you 10 ER for the 2nd half of the season over a pitcher with a 3.8 ERA. He's dropped your ERA by .1 by himself for the season.

I think if you deal Bautista, getting multiple pitchers to offset your expected results in the second half would be smarter. Manager B, if talked into having the deal be Howard, Felix, and Baker for only Joey Bats may be a starting point. Make sure you hammer home to trade partners just how valuable Joey Bats is. A comparable, but lesser, bat plus two SP upgrades would be the only fair option you could start with.

When you consider 2012 and beyond, I think his extremely favorable keeper value makes him virtually untradeable; you simply won't get enough back if your pitching needs that much help. Sit on him, and deal a different piece of strength for a more fair upgrade. No matter how much another manager gives up (like the equivalent bat in trade A), if they are already out of it, they have nothing to lose.

Only considering this year, I think if you have to pick one of these deals, I'd still pick Deal A. Why? As I said before, you're basically getting David Price for free because you'd be dropping Lohse anyway. Even though you lose the keeper value, it's irrelevant if you win the league (and if you have other options). Deal B has you trading two buy low candidates, one of which could easily match Baker in the 2nd half, in return for a downgrade in hitting and a modest bump by Felix? That trade would actually be very fair if Bautista didn't have an absurd keeper value, but it's clearly the lesser of the two.

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