Roto Savants

2009 SP Points Breakouts Revisited

2010-03-22T07:30:00.000-04:00

Later this week I'll have my list of SP to target for 2010. Today, I'm taking a look at the guys that I targeted as breakouts for 2009, to see how they did. The original marker for breaking out was a K/9 over 6.3, which correlates with a high chance of earning 400 points. Here are the players with their 2009 K/9, and my commentary.

W. Rodriguez: 8.4 K/9, 491 pts in 205 IP. Now an ace, and could still be undervalued in 2010.
J. de la Rosa: 9.4 K/9, 415 pts in 185 IP. Goes to show that the strikeout pitchers are worth it, even with high walk rates.
JA Happ: 6.5 K/9, 399 pts in 166 IP. His K/9 is still high enough to be productive; even with likely rise in ERA and WHIP, a higher innings total means he could come near 400 points again.
J. Johnson: 8.2 K/9, 548 pts in 209 IP. As I said last year, just needed health.
U. Jimenez: 8.2 K/9, 508 pts in 218 IP. Better walk rate really made his point total soar.
J. Jurrjens: 6.4 K/9, 518 pts in 215 IP. Exceptional ERA partly luck and was a contributor to his point total, but he maintained his K/9 and got more IP to easily reach the 400 mark.
A. Sanchez: Injuries derailed year. Second half K/9 (7.6) still shows he can be good value, if he ever pitches a full season.
B. Arroyo: 5.2 K/9; 451 pts in 220 IP. An exception to my rule; high IP, respectable ERA/WHIP, and wins and QS helped him make the cut. Add in his three-year average K/9 (6.4) and he could be a sleeper in 2010.
I. Snell: 5.5 K/9. Big drop last year, but if he can reverse it, and if he can benefit from a better team and a pitcher’s park, then he could be a sleeper in 2010; I’m hopeful for 350 points.
S. Marshall: 7.2 K/9. I said it last year and I’ll say it this year: needs rotation spot. With Lilly out, maybe he’ll get one.
D. Purcey: 7.3 K/9 in short MLB stint. Considered a bullpen guy after terrible 2009 ERA and WHIP in both majors and minors.
M. Owings: 5.1 K/9. Heading in wrong direction, not guaranteed rotation spot.

Roto Rundowns #3 - Troy Patterson part II

2010-03-19T10:28:00.002-04:00

Troy and I continue out conversation about statistical analysis in fantasy baseball and take a detailed look at Justin Upton vs. Grady Sizemore.

You can download the show directly here.
Special thanks to Adam at adamkurtzmusic.com for providing the opening and closing theme. Adam is still generously offering his album for free to Roto Rundowns listeners, just follow the link.

Friday Rewind - March 19, 2010

2010-03-19T07:30:00.001-04:00

Here are some links from RS as well as around the baseball blog-o-sphere. You can also check out our Draft Rankings so far.

First up we would like to remind you to contact us with questions for our email segment. Send questions to troypatterson@rotosavants.com

Matt Hagen has a look at the top corner infield prospects.

FanGraphs gives a look at the Dodgers Second Base job.

Best and Worst values by position from Razzball.

The promise that is Max Scherzer.

Here are some links from RotoSavants you might want to take a look at.

Well he definitely disagrees, but I compare James Shields and Roy Oswalt in Clone Wars.

Will Jesus Montero be the Yankees savior?

Listen to Roto Rundowns #2.

Don't forget to follow our feed and follow my Twitter @TroyPatterson

Buster Posey Plays First Base: So What?

2010-03-18T07:28:00.001-04:00

Giants super-prospect Buster Posey played first base on Tuesday and went 1-for-3.

What does this mean for fantasy players? Probably nothing. However, it could mean Posey could be valuable in the long term.

The Giants have aging Benjie Molina behind the plate for 2010, mostly because nobody else wanted him in the market this past winter. The Giants also filled their first base spot with a (disgusting) signing of 33-year old Aubrey Huff.

Can Posey push Huff? Probably not without an injury to the recent signee. Posey also got a break when Travis Ishikawa tore ligaments in his left foot before camp. However, Huff fell off a cliff last year after being traded to the Tigers, hitting .189/.265/.302 and finished with a career-low .241 average.

Posey is obviously a perfect late round sleeper in many deep leagues but not a worth a single-digit round draft pick even in two-catcher leagues. Posey's .429 average, one home run and 7 RBIs have given him an ample amount of attention on big league camp and the Giants will have a hard decision with him.

Bruce Bochy told the San Francisco Chronicle that the main concern is about Posey getting playing time. When Molina has caught in spring games, Posey has played first and been designated-hitter. If Huff and Molina occupy both spots, albeit their effectiveness might be questioned, expect Posey to spend time in the minors.

Expect Posey to receive a Matt Wieters in 2009-like call up in May or June if Molina shows he is in, an eventual, decline. When the Giants bring him up, it will be for him to play, unlike in 2009 when they brought him up as a defensive replacement.

Like with players, use statistics to win at slots, roulette and other online casino games.

Roto Rundowns #2 - Troy Patterson

2010-03-16T07:00:00.005-04:00

In this episode Troy and I discuss draft preparation and how to use in depth sabermetric statistics to evaluate players for fantasy purposes. We cap things off with a detailed look at Joey Votto vs. Adrian Gonzalez.

You can download the show at or directly here.
Special thanks to Adam at adamkurtzmusic.com for providing the opening and closing theme.

*A quick technical note: somehow the unedited version of this episode made it up to iTunes. I would highly recommend waiting for the edited version as the original had some serious audio problems. In other words, avoid the episode marked as 3/11.

**It is now quite easy to avoid the 3/11 show on iTunes as none off the shows are showing up on iTunes right now. I'm working on resolving the issue but for now you can download the episode as listed above.

Minor League Talents - Jesus Montero

2010-03-12T09:30:00.001-05:00

Looking back at the Baseball America list we see that next on the list is Jesus Montero. He is the number 4 prospect according to the list.

Jesus Montero - C - New York Yankees

Injury and Health
The concern with Montero is his height and weight will quickly push him from behind the plate. At 6-4 and over 230 pounds he is not long for the catcher spot. With Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira around for the long haul the corner spots are full. Perhaps a few years at catcher can be completed, but a corner outfield or DH spot seems like his future as long as he is in New York.

There were also some rumors he lied about his age when his bonus was dropped from $2 million to $1.65 million. Those rumors were denied, but no reason for the decrease in bonus was given.

Skill Set
Much like last week with Mike Stanton we are looking at a huge power bat. Much like Stanton though I'm not sure he has a great eye. His walk rate has been below 8 percent in the minors including his short time in Double-A.

He is more of a contact hitter in his approach though as he has a much better strikeout rate than someone like Stanton. He is striking out less than 16 percent since rookie league. This combination is similar to Brian McCann who walks 8 percent of the time and strikes out 14 percent. Montero has the power to be better according to BA who rates his power at an 80 out of 80.

We're talking about someone who should be hitting at least .300 with 30 homers, but the OBP might not be everything we would like. This really does make him a good comparison to McCann with more power. The problem is has he already outgrown the catcher spot and will he be more of a Pablo Sandoval who also had to leave the catcher position.

Montero takes batting practice:

Major League ETA and Conclusion
With only 181 PA at Double-A he has a ticket back to Trenton Thunder or even Triple-A Scranton with a solid spring to start 2010 and with the Yankees having no opening for him the rest of the year seams very unlikely. Jorge Posada is signed through the end of 2011 making next season even a stretch. This rules out Montero from drafts except in leagues with a minor league system.

Friday Rewind - March 12, 2010

2010-03-12T06:00:00.000-05:00

Here are some links from RS as well as around the baseball blog-o-sphere. You can also check out our Draft Rankings so far.

First up we would like to remind you to contact us with questions for our email segment. Send questions to troypatterson@rotosavants.com

My Clone Wars look at Jonathon Papelbon and future closer Daniel Bard.

So how will the Twins solve the Closer problem?

A Game of Inches pulls together the draft rankings or Yahoo!, ESPN and MDC.

Here are some links from RotoSavants you might want to take a look at.

No not that Mike Stanton...the good Mike Stanton.

Who was consistent and does that make them H2H values?

Don't forget to check out the first episode of our new podcast Roto Rundown with Aaron Murray.

Don't forget to follow our feed and follow my Twitter @TroyPatterson

Cheap in 2010: Todd Helton

2010-03-11T11:51:00.005-05:00

Drafting Todd Helton will not necessarily be a good move for every fantasy manager in 2010. Those who need power from the corners, for instance, or those who don't care to gamble on an aging player. But for those who need a BA boost and already have some power Helton could provide some definite value this year. The Fans are quite bullish on him projecting a line of 92/15/102/0/.311 and while that is probably an absolute best case scenario he's hit over .300 in every season since his rookie campaign except for '08, when his BABIP was about forty points lower than his career mark so something like 85/15/85/0/.305 probably isn't that far off the mark.

If you need power from 1B or if you already have some injury risks on your team then Helton is probably a guy to avoid but if you find yourself halfway through your draft in need of BA then consider Helton. He could easily provide more value at the 203rd pick than guys like LaRoche, Loney, Cantu, and Chris Davis, all of whom are flying off the board between the 150th and the 200th pick. While BA may not be the most important statistic to focus on while drafting it's important not to forget about it entirely.

Roto Rundowns #1

2010-03-09T13:39:00.010-05:00

Check out the first episode of Roto Rundowns, a fantasy baseball podcast hosted by Aaron Murray. In the first episode we take a look at snake draft strategy.

You can also download the show at or directly here. Special thanks to Adam at adamkurtzmusic.com for providing the opening and closing theme.

Hittracker Data: Part II

2010-03-09T07:00:00.003-05:00

A couple of weeks ago I went through my analysis of the 2009 data posted at Hittrackeronline.com. There's a wealth of data over there and I wanted to see whether the numbers could be used to predict players who may be in for a growth or decline in HR output. To do so I ranked players by criteria like how fast off the bat their HR's were and how far they went overall and then separated the players into Sluggers, who were well above the norm in these skills, and Laggers who still hit at least fifteen HR's but who trailed when it came to some of the underlying aspects of their HR's.

This week I did the same with the 2008 data so that I could identify Sluggers and Laggers in that year and track them into 2009 to see how they performed in the year after their performances. The conclusion is that, with a caveat about small sample size, there does seem to be some predictive value in evaluating just how hard hit a player's HR's were, not just for predicting successful HR hitters but also for predicting gains or declines in plate appearance per HR.

In 2008 there were 119 players who hit at least fifteen HR's, nineteen of whom were Sluggers, defined by being at least a standard definition better than the competition in at least two of four measured categories, and twenty-four of whom were Laggers, defined as a standard definition worse than the competition in at least two categories. The other seventy-six control players were mostly strong or weak in one category or none. As I noted in my last post, there was a surprising lack of players who exhibited a mix of strengths and weaknesses.

All categories, Sluggers, Laggers, and the control players, saw an average rise in the number of plate appearances per HR. This may seem to suggest that everyone was getting worse at HR hitting but remember that it's easier to have a big loss of power, because of aging or injury, than it is to gain power, which usually happens in smaller increments. It's also probably true that a players decline phase lasts longer than his growth stage so overall there were many more declining players, seventy-eight, than growing ones, forty-one.

Of the 2008 Sluggers ten players exhibited power growth as measured by PA/HR in 2009, A-Rod (-2.2), Ibanez (-14.1), Luke Scott (-3.1), Torii Hunter (-6.0), Pujols (-2.4), Fielder (-5.4), Votto (-2.8), Iannetta (-.7), Griffey (-8.0), and Justin Upton (-5.2), while nine exhibited declines, Thome (1.2), Josh Hamilton (14.5), Guerrero (4.9), Napoli (7.9), Dunn (.4), Delgado(8.9), Hanley Ramirez (5.5), Ankiel (17.4), and Garrett Atkins (12.7). As you can see, the declines tended to be bigger than the increases and the decliners tended to be more predictable, Thome, Guerrero, Delgado, Ankiel, and Atkins in particular.

Of the 2008 Laggers only six exhibited power growth in 2009, Jose Lopez (-14.3), Damon (-10.6), Werth (-5.5), DeRosa (-3.2), B. Molina (-11.9), and Willingham (-6.8), while 17 exhibited power declines, Youkilis (.1), Beltre (35.1), Peralta (29.8), Alexei Ramirez (16.2), Markakis (4.7), Millar (9.9), Abreu (10.3), Pedroia (4.9), Crede (2.5), Lowell (.9), Ramon Hernandez (32.4), Teahen (6.1), Troy Glaus (8.4), Mike Cameron (5.0), JJ Hardy (14.9), McCann (1.3), and Scott Hairston (6.0.) Here we see that the swings were bigger for the Laggers in both directions, although the solid growth by the six who got better is not from a very big sample.

Of the control group fiftey-one players exhibited power growth while twenty-five exhibited a decline. So overall a Slugger was about fifty percent likely to get better, a control was about thirty-three percent likely, and a Lagger was only about twenty-five percent likely to increase. But Sluggers were also more likely to decline predictably and slowly like Thome, Guerrero, and Delgado, than Laggers who were more likely to have big declines like Beltre, Peralta, and Hardy so a Lagger is a double red flag as he's more likely to decline at all and more likely to decline at a faster rate than a Slugger or a control hitter.

So in conclusion I think it is fruitful to study the 2009 list of Slugger and Laggers and specifically adjust values for guys like Cruz, Ianetta, Ian Stewart, Miguel Cabrera, Colby Rasmus, and Seth Smith all of whom were Sluggers last year and don't have any red flags in terms of age or injury. On the other hand, I might stay away from guys like Griffey, Rollins, Cantu, Aaron Hill, Rowand, and Jeter, Laggers who have some other reason for concern as well.

Points Leagues: Consistency List

2010-03-08T07:00:00.000-05:00

For those of you in CBS's points leagues, here's a list of players who were quite consistent last season. I've sorted them by the least number of weeks that they scored under 10 points, excluding weeks when they did not play and had zero points for the week. Please note that this list may not be all-inclusive. However, it's a starting point, and if you're trying to decide between two players, it might be helpful a tiebreaker.

Also, please note that some big names are missing. That's simply the nature of the game: not everyone is consistent every single week, every year. And not everyone will stay on this list next yearThere's also some surprise names on here, such as David DeJesus. These players might not outscore all the competition, but consistency should be valued in its own right.

# of weeks <10>
* = made last year’s list

A. Pujols (0)*
M. Teixeira (0)*
J. Ellsbury (0)
A. McCutchen (0)
A. Pagan (0 when he played)
P. Fielder (1)*
A. Gonzalez (1)*
A. Hill (1)
R. Howard (1)*
J. Morneau (1)*
A. Lind (1)
M. Scutaro (1)
J. Mauer (2)*
C. Lee (2)*
Miggy Cabrera (2)*
J. Damon (2)*
T. Helton (2)
D. Lee (2)
N. McLouth (2)
H. Pence (2)*
Cano (2)
JD Drew (2)
M. Holliday (2)
R. Ibanez (2)
McCann (2)*
K. Morales (2)
B. Phillips (2)
C. Utley (2)
V. Wells (2)*
L. Berkman (3)
I. Kinsler (3)*
D. Pedroia (3)*
J. Cantu (3)
D. DeJesus (3)
J. Lopez (3)
J. Rollins (3)
O. Cabrera (3)
N. Cruz (3)
V. Martinez (3)
M. Prado (3 after taking over full-time)
M. Ramirez (3)*
B. Roberts (3)*
H. Matsui (4)*
Y. Escobar (4)
J. Rivera (4)
M. Byrd (4)
S. Hairston (4)
S. Rolen (4)
P. Sandoval (4)

Minor League Talents - Mike Stanton

2010-03-05T10:00:00.001-05:00

Looking back at the Baseball America list we see that next on the list is Mike Stanton. He is the number 3 prospect according to the list.

Mike Stanton - OF - Florida Marlins

Injury and Health
A sore back in the Arizona Fall League caused him to be shut down this year, but all information says this is a minor injury and just more of a precaution. The team says it was from wear and tear and not any individual play. Nothing too worrying and no major troubles yet.

Skill Set
Stanton is a power bat and totaled 16 homers in half a season at Double-A. That is what he does well and he has projections as a 40 homer hitter some day. Not only does Baseball America love him, but John Sickels gives him a A- grade.

The trouble here is his contract skills are worrying. He has a strikeout rate at Double-A was 33% and although he only had 299 AB. He also had a 33% strikeout rate in his 468 AB at A ball. It's going to take a lot of power to put up 40 homers with contact skills like this.

His patience at the plate has had ups and downs so far. In his half season at Double-A he walked a solid 9 percent of the time. While not great it's not terrible either. His batting average and on base skills are not ready yet for sure.

Major League ETA and Conclusion
Baseball America thinks a callup sometime this year, but lets hope he is given time to work on his plate discipline. If he can at least turn into a solid three outcome guy his power should supply more than enough power to be a value. Without more walks though he might become the name Sickels suggested: Jeff Franceour.

Friday Rewind - March 5, 2010

2010-03-05T07:00:00.000-05:00

Here are some links from RS as well as around the baseball blog-o-sphere. You can also check out our Draft Rankings so far.

First up we would like to remind you to contact us with questions for our email segment. Send questions to troypatterson@rotosavants.com

THT Forecasts are out and there is much to look forward too.

Don't let James Loney slip into your draft plans.

Some undervalued hitters for 2010.

Here are some links from RotoSavants you might want to take a look at.

My THT article looked at speedsters Carl Crawford and Dexter Fowler in Clone Wars.

A look at prospect Stephen Strasburg in minor league talents.

Should you take Dernard Span or Shane Victorino?

Don't forget to follow our feed and follow my Twitter @TroyPatterson

Do Not Draft!!: Players Who Helped You Win Last Year

2010-03-04T06:13:00.000-05:00

The fixation with what won you a league last year could doom your hopes in 2010.

Remember those players who you probably picked up last year that helped you win your league, or at least compete for pride or money? You will see their names on your mock draft boards or in a new role on the depth charts and think, if they helped you win the league last year then why not this year?

Remember Mike Aviles? His .325/.354/.480 with 10 home runs probably helped you win your league in 2008. His payoff? Getting hurt in 2009 which derailed his season. However, the Royals still have some up and coming talent and showed some depth if you picked up Alberto Callaspo, who also might not even start this year for the Royals.

Chris B. Young appeared to be ready to break out for the Diamondbacks: hitting 32 home runs and placing fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2007, then hitting 22 home runs and 42 doubles in 2008. Young was expected to take the next step in 2009 but instead could not hit and was demoted to AAA late in the year. Young recovered to hit .278 in the final month of the season with 8 home runs.

Many leagues last year were likely won on the backs of Garrett Jones, whose .938 OPS and 21 home runs helped many teams win their leagues. Many fans probably don't want to know then that the last time Jones had an OPS over .900 was in a half season with New Britain of the Eastern League in 2004. Jones, who is 29 this year, might have one more year to impress but given that the Pirates lineup limited his RBI opportunities (just 44 RBI despite 21 HR), there might not be much room for improvement in drafting Jones as a third or fourth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Another player, like Jones, to come out of relatively nowhere to impress was Randy Wells. Wells became the hottest waiver commodity quickly, pitching to a 1.80 ERA in four May starts and racking up an early strikeout rate of 8.3 K/9. However after May, Wells' strikeouts declined severely and his WHIP rose every month since. Wells has only pitched better than his 2009 ERA (3.05) in one full season in 2005 as a starter and reliever in A and AA ball (2.83).

Bronson Arroyo had a great end to the season and likely helped teams win some categories in head to head leagues. Arroyo's 6-5 record with a 2.24 ERA in the second half with a 1.04 WHIP was waiver wire gold for teams looking for scarce arms. Arroyo has only put together one full season better than a 3.80 ERA and his strikeouts per nine innings declined by over 2.0 K/9 from 2008 to 2009.

Juan Pierre was a great fix when Manny Ramirez took time off for a suspension last year. Pierre helped many players win their league, racking up 20 steals in May and June combined. Pierre benefited from a .410 Batting Average on Balls in Play in May to boost his value. If you kept Pierre for the rest of the year, you got only 9 more steals the rest of the way. Now a member of the White Sox, Pierre appears to be getting a final chance with the White Sox. One major fact to note before drafting Pierre is that his steals have declined in each of the last three seasons.

There was a reason the Red Sox wanted to cut David Aardsma; however, the Mariners picked up the still young Rice arm and let him loose to become a dominant closer in 2009. Aardsma struck out a career high 80 batters, had a career best 2.53 ERA and converted 38 saves. Some underlying facts about Aardsma, he benefited significantly from a .257 BABIP, his hits per nine innings went down by just under 3.0 H/9 while his walk rate dropped slightly. Entering his age 28 season, it would not be a surprise if Aardsma doesn't develop into a dominant closer but into a short period of very good play.

Draft This, Not That: Span VS Victorino

2010-03-01T07:00:00.000-05:00

There are plenty of decent outfielders available every year. Some guys are harder to replace than others (see Braun, Ryan), but overall you can find very comparable hitters in stats and abilities. So when you can get a guy who’s the spitting image of an OF on the NL champions, but this guy is available several rounds, why not take him? For this reason, you should draft Denard Span instead of Shane Victorino.

Shane Victorino is a five-category hitter; though he’s a little low for HR, you can bank on 10 or more to go with his speed. He hits righties well, going .283 against them in 2009. And he plays on a strong club, which can help his R and RBI totals. So why would you pass on him? Well, there’s nothing particularly wrong with his game, aside from a mediocre OBP; 2009 was his career high at .358, and he’s been slightly improving every year, but he’d have a much better SB total if he could get on base even more. That being said, his walk percentage is the only major downer here. It’s not that Victorino is bad, but that you can get his twin in later rounds.

Denard Span has been a sleeper candidate who showed potential during limited playing time in 2008. He got full-time work in 2009 and blossomed. He hits lefties well and ended up with a better average against them than righties, though this was certainly due to a high BABIP. He doesn’t hit a lot of doubles, as he either hits a single or hits it well enough to make a triple. And he can offer a bit of pop as well, hitting 8 HR in 2009, with potential for a few more as he matures. Though his success for SB wasn’t as good as his rookie season, you should be able to count on 20+ from him in the future.

Before we look at the average draft positions, I want to emphasize how close these two hitters were in 2009 in the five basic roto categories. Keep this in mind when you see the ADP numbers.

Victorino: .292/102/10/62/25
Span: .311/97/8/68/23

Now for their ADP. Couch Managers has them closer together than Mock Draft Central, but the differences are still insane considering the talent and stats you get from Span. Victorino averages 81 at Couch Managers, while Span goes three rounds later at 119. At Mock Draft Central, Victorino’s ADP is 70 compared to Span’s 124, or a four-round difference. In fact, Span’s earliest selection (98) is still lower than Victorino’s latest (91).

Let’s see... Same stats? Check. Huge difference in ADP? Check. A perfect example of finding a steal in the draft? Check! By passing on Victorino, you can pick up an extra slugger or a starting pitcher early on, and you can recover all of his production three rounds later by grabbing Span.

Minor League Talents - Stephen Strasburg

2010-02-26T10:00:00.001-05:00

And just like that the Baseball America list comes out and Jason Heyward is number one from last week. Since that is the case let's take the top 20 in order. Today is number two on the list Washington Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg.

Stephen Strasburg - SP - Washington Nationals

Injury and Health
Strasburg experienced a dislocated knee cap last year, but the injury caused no ligament damage and required no surgery. The injury was quite a scare to the Nats, but should have no effect going forward. There are some concerns about his delivery, but let's be honest they had these concerns about Tim Lincecum.

Skill Set
He's got the stuff with a fastball clocked at 95-97 and pushed to 100 mph on occasion. Then a devastating curve makes him a formidable pitcher. He could probably learn a change-up as well to really complete his arsenal, but stuff will not be a problem.

His senior year was an amazing statistical year. He carried a K/9 of 16.95, a 1.75 BB/9 and a K/BB of 9.65. Those numbers are amazing, but remembering that this is college and will adjust as he moves up to the majors.

His first run in the minors only lasted 19.1 innings before the knee injury. His limited time saw him go 4-1 with a K/9 of 10.9, a BB/9 of 3.3. It's not surprising to see his walks suffer as he faces better hitters, but being only 19.1 IP it's to early to tell.

Here is a straight on look at his pitching motion:

Major League ETA
He is sure to see time in the minors, but the scouting all screams he should reach the majors this year. Obviously the Nationals have no reason to rush him, but they sure could use a reason for fans to come out to games. Some time after June you can expect to see Strasburg up.

Conclusion and Advice
Trusting a young pitcher is never advised as the number who succeed right away are greatly outnumbered by those who flame out. Even an elite talent is someone you should use caution with, but being that his current ADP is 270 he isn't being extremely overvalued and could be a solid choice in the early 20 rounds of deep drafts.

Friday Rewind - February 26, 2010

2010-02-26T07:00:00.000-05:00

Here are some links from RS as well as around the baseball blog-o-sphere. You can also check out our Draft Rankings so far.

First up we would like to remind you to contact us with questions for our email segment. Send questions to troypatterson@rotosavants.com

FanGraphs released a PDF style Guide. I refer printed versions for drafts, but being FanGraphs I have interest.

Here are some "sleepers"...I mean 10 players with "upside".

I have yet to try this strategy of "What it takes to win", but mainly because I prefer OBP leagues.

Here are some links from RotoSavants you might want to take a look at.

Jason Heyward was my minor league talent last week and then became number 1 at Baseball America.

Kevin reviews his predictions from 2009 in points leagues.

Don't forget to follow our feed and follow my Twitter @TroyPatterson

Spring Training & Draft Prep

2010-02-25T06:51:00.001-05:00

Now that a lot of players have arrived at camps it's that time of year again. Not only is it time for draft prep but it is also time to hear all the Spring Training stories we're used to.

Apparently Cubs catcher Geovanny Soto lost 40 pounds after losing 67 points of batting average last year. Mariner Ken Griffey came back strong, losing a few pounds to hopefully be a part of the Seattle DH situation. Mets pitcher Oliver Perez got some tutoring from Sandy Koufax in Mets camp. New Brewers pitching coach Rick Peterson is excited about the Brewers' biomechanics lab that will hopefully improve the pitchers he coaches this year.

New Met Jason Bay told MLB.com of the best shape of your life issue:

"People don't care if you come in the best shape of your life or not," Bay said. "If you show up and produce, they don't care what you did in the offseason. It's all about production."
Then, looking quite fit, Bay smiled and said, "I'm in the best shape of my life, of course."

The main thing to know here for fantasy players is: try to ignore all the latest news. If Cardinals Matt Holliday skips a day with the flu, it's not a big deal. Rumors are Nats Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen will play in the minors in 2010; however, Strasburg will start on March 9th and will only be pitching at Nats home games in the spring. Daisuke Matsuzaka is apparently in the best shape he's showed up in his Red Sox career, will it help his pitch count? We don't know yet. Joba Chamberlain ran in a group with Mariano Rivera, does it mean he's a reliever? No idea. Padre Chris Young feels good in a bullpen session off of two injury-plagued seasons. Rangers outfield Josh Hamilton bruised his shoulder in a drill but that's not much to worry about.

Orioles pitcher Brad Bergesen, coming off himself shooting a commercial, hurt his shoulder. At least the commercial came out very well.

Players workouts this early won't determine their status, they will most likely be decided in the last weeks of spring training. It's almost as easy to ignore the next two weeks, even when games start, because starters are working on getting their legs under them and warming up to play games. It doesn't help that on road games, a team will sometimes send a 'B' team to play if the bus trip is hours away. If you've ever driven in Florida before, you know it takes two to three hours to travel to either coast.

The only newsworthy thing that might be true is Chone Figgins and Jose Lopez taking grounders at second and third, respectively. Figgins took grounders at second and Lopez, as if he needs another eligible position, at third. This might be one of the only things that might be worth watching so far this spring.

The only thing important to me is, who goes on the DL already because most players at this time will go on the 60-day DL to protect the team's 40 man roster. In deeper leagues, watching who will make each team's bullpen and the closer battle in Toronto will be interesting to watch as spring unfolds.

Your draft prep time has value, especially this year more than ever. So what if Jason Heyward has impressed everyone who has seen him so far, the Braves will have to make sure he starts so we can draft him in our leagues. Meanwhile, do some mock drafts and calmly wait out the team's depth charts. Teams whose back end rotations are up in the air will likely solve themselves by mid-March or, if you draft later, late March. Until then do some mock drafts and research projections as they come out to establish your rankings for drafts.

Did I mention to ignore Manny Ramirez making comments?

Cheap in 2010: Colby Rasmus

2010-02-23T06:30:00.000-05:00

After looking at some mid and early round values in the last two weeks I wanted to look at a player who is truly cheap. Colby Rasmus is being drafted towards the end of the 18th round according to Mock Draft Central but stands a very good chance to return value higher than that. Rasmus showed decent power last year with the Cardinals hitting sixteen home runs in 520 plate appearances. Managers were disappointed, however, by his three steals in four attempts after he showed speed potential in the minors.

The major projection systems are mixed on Rasmus' power growth as CHONE and Marcel see slight declines while Bill James and the Fans see improvement. Even though James is notoriously optimistic and the Fans don't have a track record I wouldn't be surprised to see Rasmus finishing 2010 at around twenty HR's. One reason that I'm optimistic about his power is that, even though I haven't finished my Hittracker analysis, preliminarily I'm finding reason to believe that "Sluggers" tend to improve their PA/HR rate in the year after they are Sluggers. That combined with an increase in PA's from last year and hopefully an increased comfort level with Major League base stealing could mean that puts up decent 3/4 OF numbers in 2010.

Points Leagues: 2009 Busts and Breakouts Revisited

2010-02-22T18:00:00.001-05:00

I took a look back at my projected breakout hitters for points leagues going into 2009. These hitters had a SLG over the .420 mark that I determined last year, but they simply lacked the AB to reach the coveted 400-point mark. (93 hitters reached 400 pts in 2008, and 89% of the those hitters had a SLG over .420.) Here' s a look back at those breakout candidates, with their 2009 SLG and point totals.

C
Napoli: .495 SLG, 303 pts in 382 AB. Had the SLG again but still not getting the playing time. Even 450 AB at this point-per-AB ratio would have made him the #5 C overall with 357 points.

Iannetta: .460 SLG, 241 pts in 289 AB. Poor average due to bad luck in BABIP, but he lost playing time because of it. But power was there, and at 450 AB he would have moved up to 375 points; like Napoli, a top-5 candidate if given the playing time.

Doumit: .414 SLG, 189 pts in 280 AB. Injuries derailed his season, which could help explain the falling SLG.

Snyder: .352 SLG, 110 pts in 165 AB. Drop in power and overall performance led to no playing time.

1B
Konerko: .489 SLG, 455 pts in 546 AB. SLG came back to career average and he paid off for those who gambled on him, despite some poor stints.

LaRoche: .488 SLG, 432 pts in 555 AB. Small drop in SLG, but extra AB got him over the 400-point mark.

C. Davis: .442 SLG, 231 pts in 391 AB. Power was there, but dismal first half ruined points potential. If he can put together a full year that’s anywhere near second half, the SLG will lead to 400+ points.

Ishikawa: .387 SLG, 205 pts in 326 AB. Silent and weak bat forced SF to go elsewhere. Doesn’t have the playing time or the SLG to reach 400 now.

Shealy: Didn’t play in majors in 2009.

2B
Cano: .520 SLG, 523 pts in 637 AB. I said a SLG rebound would boost him up, and what a boost! I don’t think he’ll maintain a SLG that far over .500, but he’s a lock for a top-10 2B in points.

Hudson: .417 SLG, 397 pts in 551 AB. SLG dipped from 2008, and he fell right below 400 points. I’d like to think he makes a good case for the .420 being a good dividing line.

Matsui: .357 SLG, 301 pts in 476 AB. A drop in SLG (and OPS overall), and a drop in points. Could chalk the reverse in SLG trend to injuries, but with career SLG at .387, best not to gamble in 2010.

Barmes: .440 SLG, 381 pts in 550 AB. Uh oh. Here’s a guy with good AB total, and he makes the .420 SLG cut-off, but he didn’t reach 400 points. Dragged down by high K total, bad BA, bad OBP. The 10 CS didn’t help either. His case will bear more scrutiny in the weeks to come. Is he an exception, or does the SLG cut-off need to rise?

DeRosa: .433 SLG, 376 pts in 515 AB. Another guy who had the SLG. Drop in SLG, but it’s the missed time due to injury that stopped him; another 35 AB would have netted him 401 points. He makes my cut, given more playing time. But in 2010, not worth the gamble because of risk.

3B
Gordon: .378 SLG, 123 pts in 164 AB. Injuries ruined season. If he can manage decent BA, keep SLG over .420, I still say he can hit 400 points.

Wigginton: .400 SLG, 245 pts in 410 AB. As goes the SLG, so go the points. Comparing 2008 and 2009, it’s the big drops in SLG and OBP that sank the season, as rest of stats were pretty similar. But career SLG of .452 gives brief hope for 2010… if he can find the playing time.

Stewart: .464 SLG, 343 pts in 425 AB. Just 500 AB would have gotten him 403 points, despite bad average. Ability to walk offsets his high K total. Should have lock on 3B, playing time in 2010.

Branyan: .520 SLG, 360 pts in 431 AB. Power there, just lacked AB: 500 AB = 419 points. Even so, 360 points was a nice addition to anyone who gambled late on him, or picked him up early in the year.

Dobbs: .383 SLG, 93 pts in 154 AB. Not enough playing time to factor in. Doesn’t seem likely to get playing time now, and 2009 SLG not encouraging.

OF
N. Cruz: .524 SLG, 421 pts in 462 AB. Point-to-AB ratio (0.91) very solid in full year.

J. Werth: .506 SLG, 544 pts in 571 AB. In 2008 he was on page for 511 pts in 550 AB, and he did even better than that.

V. Wells: .400 SLG, 438 pts in 630 AB. Now he’s on the wrong side of my breakout/bust list. Sheer number of AB, plus SB, kept him over 400.

F. Lewis: .390 SLG, 195 pts in 295 AB. Maintained his extra-base hits that made him valuable in 2008, but big drop in BA, plus more strikeouts detracted from value. Biggest loss to point total was the fact that he stopped running, and therefore lost playing time.

S. Choo: .489 SLG, 517 pts in 583 AB. This is why I loved Choo going into 2009. He was such a sleeper, and despite his breakout year he’s still not as valued as he should be.

J. Willingham: .495 SLG, 368 pts in 426 AB. Just needs to stay healthy and get more AB. When that happens (this year, I bet), then you can bank on 400 points, and probably 450.

D. Span: .415 SLG, 476 pts in 578 AB. His SLG dropped below the .420 mark, but AB, 3B, and SB maintained his value. With a few more 2B (or HR), the SLG goes back up and he’s a 500-point player.

C. Dickerson: .373 SLG, 167 pts in 255 AB. Not enough playing time, but the SLG fell anyway, so he wouldn’t have reached 400 points with 500 AB anyway. Talented prospects in Cincinnati OF might mean he doesn’t get too many more shots, but minor league SLG (.414) gives hope. Now that he’s not as touted as he was before 2009, he’s worth a gamble.

C. Maybin: .409 SLG, 106 pts in 176 AB. His SLG was a little low, but it was the playing time that stopped him. Minor league SLG shows he’s still got potential, and 2010 may be the year.

J. Kubel: .539 SLG, 460 pts in 514 AB. Another one of my personal favorites from 2009.

N. Schierholtz: .400 SLG, 169 pts in 285 AB. Small sample size from 2009 proved to be too much to retain, and he didn’t get the AB needed anyway.

J. Upton: .532 SLG, 473 pts in 526 AB. He has arrived. I’m betting he’ll get at least .500 SLG and 450+ points in 2010.

L. Scott: .488 SLG, 361 pts in 449 AB. The problem was playing time; even 500 AB nets 402 points. In 2010, though, the PT issue is still a problem.

R. Church: .384 SLG, 241 pts in 359 AB. Injuries resulted in low points, lost season. Potential still there, but better gambles for 2010.

Daniel Murphy: .427 SLG, 349 pts in 508 AB. A case where the .420 mark was reached, but the points weren’t there (even if extrapolated to 550 AB). Another hitter who will require more research for 2010.

A. Lind: .562 SLG, 546 pts in 587 AB. Hello, breakout! I expected this for 2010, but he was a year early. Look for more of the same: a .500+ SLG and 500+ points.

T. Snider: .419 SLG, 158 pts in 241 AB. His MLB slugging is right there, and his minor league career (.533) points to breakout. I said last year he’d be a good pick for 2010, and I’ll be gambling on him now.

Branyan the Sleeper Elicits a Yawn

2010-02-20T09:23:00.007-05:00

Here's my take on the recent discussions between Russell Branyan and Andrew Friedman of the Rays and Mark Shapiro of the Indians:

Open on a luxurious office, sun streaming through the windows, palm trees and the Gulf of Mexico in the background. Andrew Freidman sits across a desk from Russell Branyan while Joe Madden sits to the side on a couch, polishing his glasses.

Friedman: (smiling) So we'll pay you x for 2010 and start you off platooning with Pat Burrell at DH. Which means you'll start against all righties for now but we know that your skills against lefties have been underestimated, after all last year was the first time you got more than a handful of at-bats against them and your wOBA was a respectable .345, so don't be surprised if you end up the full time DH by May because Burrell stinks.

Branyan: (sits in silence)

Friedman: (his smile falters for a second) Uh, yeah, and the best part is 2011. You see, Carlos Pena's contract is up at the end of the year and, just between us, we're not going to bring him back. So you've got first dibs on the job next year and if we're not looking good at the trade deadline we'll probably deal Carlos then and you'd have the job for the rest of the year. So whaddya say, kid.

Branyan: I'll think about it.

Friedman: He'll think about it. Hear that, Joe. That's terrific. The kid's a thinker.

Joe Madden: Does he want a pillow for his head?

Friedman: Easy, Joe. Teammates is a mental state.

Cut to Cleveland. It's snowing outside of a dingy office in which Mark Shapiro and Branyan sit across from each other while Drew Carey sits on a couch to the side.

Shapiro: (absently) So we'll offer you two million for this season and a mutual option for 2011 at five million. You might get some at-bats at first but we really like this kid LaPorta. You'll also get some at-bats at DH but, in case you haven't heard, we've got this guy named Haffner and he might have finally recovered from shoulder surgery.

Branyan: (sits in silence)

Shapiro: (oblivously) Ah, there's no real way that we're going to catch the Twins this year and the wild card is coming out of the East, so...ah.... Also, in 2011 we're definitely going with LaPorta and I know we have that mutual option but, there's no real chance that we'll be taking that option. So...

Branyan: I'll think about it.

Drew Carey: (leaning forward) Cleveland rocks.

Brranyan: Where do I sign.

Ok, so I may be overstating the difference in likely playing time between the two teams but this signing seems like a bad play by Branyan. Obviously we don't know what the Rays actually offered or whether they got cold feet or what else may have been going on behind the scenes but I find it hard to believe that they wouldn't have at least matched the Indians' offer. Even if his 2010 playing time would be roughly similar for both teams 2011 looks so much sunnier in Tampa, which will be looking for a 1B and DH, than in Cleveland, which will be going with LaPorta for sure and in the end who's more likely to be released, Haffner or Burrell?

For fantasy purposes the Cleveland 1B situation could offer good handcuff potential. Both Branyan and LaPorta are going after the 20th round in mock drafts and together they could provide solid value, especially since there will be games in which both are playing, LaPorta at 1st and Branyan at DH.

Minor League Talents - Jason Heyward (Part II)

2010-02-19T09:30:00.002-05:00

I have decided to start the Minor League Talents article a bit early this year. Last year I waited for the Baseball America list and took the top ten plus a few extra. This year I'm going to go with a few names leading up to the BA top 100 and then fill in the rest. The first up is Jason Heyward who I looked at last year, but let's see how he looks today.

Jason Heyward - OF - Atlanta Braves

Injury and Health
According to the Fantasy Pitch f/x DL tool he dealt with hip troubles twice last year. That seems minor and in the previous year he dealt with a sore knee, but has not had anything major yet. Last year I noted he held Chipper Jones as a comparable, but that is more of a talent comparison and not health.

Skill Set
There is some difference of opinion here as The Scouting Book calls him "A real five-tool player, he doesn't have one breakout skill, he has five very well-rounded ones." On the other hand John Sickels at Minor League Ball says "A complete prospect, perfect Five Tool/Seven Skill player."

Either way we can see he is a five tool player, but is he going to be the elite or just quite good player? So far opinion seems solid with him topping early minor league rankings in the number one or two spot.

For me I couldn't think more of him after 2009. Lats year I wrote he "has shown a good eye with a 9.8% walk rate at A in the most ABs". Now he suddenly posts a 14.4% walk rate in a solid 195 PA at Double-A. He needs to prove this skill in 2010, but that level would be amazing for him with his solid contact rate.

His power continued to show with an ISO of .259 at Double-A and solid speed number of 6.6. This was enough to impress everyone and earned Minor League player of the year from Baseball America and USA Today. So far his average line over 162 games in the minors is 110/20/85/18/.318

Here is an at bat from the 2009 season:

Major League ETA
This one is tough as the Braves have shown interest in Johnny Damon and his arrival would end his chance at an early season callup. As long as they don't his competition is Matt Diaz this spring and that is not a long shot. He would need to really shine in Spring Training, but if not he could be one of the June 1 call ups. 2010 should see his debut, but how much he plays is still in question.

Conclusion and Advice
Unless you're in a really deep league he isn't going to be anything more than someone to keep an eye on early in the year. In most standard leagues I would pass unless spring training rumors begin to swirl with him earning a spot. Then you can swoop and make the necessary move to add him to your team.

Friday Rewind - February 19, 2010

2010-02-19T06:00:00.001-05:00

Here are some links from RS as well as around the baseball blogosphere. You can also check out our Draft Rankings so far.

First up we would like to remind you to contact us with questions for our email segment. Send questions to troypatterson@rotosavants.com

Once Jacoby Ellsbury was thought of as a Johnny Damon clone, but now Curtis Granderson?

Does a change in offseason regimen lead to a better season?

What happened to J.R. Towles? Well besides the obvious lack of playing time.

Here are some links from RotoSavants you might want to take a look at.

Would you draft Adam Lind or Andre Ethier?

Aaron talks up my 2010 sleeper Ian Stewart...in case you forgot I compared him with Mark Reynolds and Chase Utley.

A look at the current "open competition" sure to plague a few teams this year.

Don't forget to follow our feed and follow my Twitter @TroyPatterson

Verducci effect uses more circumstantial evidence

2010-02-18T10:00:00.000-05:00

Verducci effect uses more circumstantial evidence

My thoughts on the 2010 list given by Verducci. Head over to Fire Brand for the article.

What Dooms Fantasy Seasons: Open Competition

2010-02-18T08:00:00.000-05:00

Two of the things that can quickly derail a fantasy baseball season as soon as the day after draft day are: injuries and open competition.

Last year I was riding the Ryan Spilborghs bandwagon, big mistake there. It did not look that bad in the first month of the year when he hit .301/.370/.452; however, Seth Smith caught fire in the summer and put Spilborghs in the fourth outfielder role.

There will be many open competitions this year that fantasy owners, especially in deeper leagues, will have to keep their eyes on. Among these include:

Mets First Base: Omar Minaya told the NJ Star Ledger that first base is indeed an 'open competition.' Daniel Murphy has competition in, Mike Jacobs and both are lefties. Jacobs became a DH in Kansas City and did not fare as well in the junior circuit, hitting .228/.297/.401 for the Royals. Jacobs has the one thing Murphy doesn't: power. Murphy had a .444 slugging percentage in the minors while Jacobs has slugged over .450 in four of his five seasons.
Mets Catcher: Omar must have confidence in Omir Santos, entering his age-29 season and hit .260/.296/.391 in 2009, will likely be the favorite against Chris Coste, Henry Blanco, Josh Thole and non-roster invitee Shawn Riggans. I know the question for most fantasy owners is why care about this situation but in deeper leagues it will be one to watch, if you need to settle on a Met being your 2nd catcher.

Three Players for Two Outfield Spots in Atlanta?: Melky Cabrera could be in an uphill battle against the likes of prospects Jayson Heyward and Jason Schafer while having to stave off platoon-star Matt Diaz as well for the two corner spots next to Nate McLouth this spring. It's likely that Cabrera will hold down a job but there's always a chance that Diaz could sneak in there to platoon, Diaz went .412/.464/.640 against lefties last year.
Rangers First Base: Will Chris Davis finally hit for good, again? He might be pushed by Justin Smoak who has hit in every stop in the minors, hitting .292/.403/.452 in barely over one year in the minors. Davis did not help his stock with an abysmal 2009, .238/.284/.442 in case you forgot, it got so bad that Andruw Jones made his first career start at first base. Davis' good last month of 2009 (.318/.350/.518) is probably the only thing that is holding this back from being an all-out competition. Lefties kill Davis, over the last two years he's hit .226/.271/.428 against them, which leaves the opportunity out there that the switch hitter Smoak can capitalize on.

Marlins First Base: First base might be weak this year if Fantasy players move Jorge Cantu to his likely position at third base and speculate on the Marlins first base situation. Gaby Sanchez has not done anything to establish himself in his cups of coffee at the major league level the past two years. Is Sanchez much better than super-prospect Logan Morrison? Probably not. Add to it that the Fish have a habit of promoting from Double-A, Morrison has hit .289/.375/.459 in the minors, and there might be a quickly developing situation in Miami. Sanchez will get the first crack at the job and has the proven power to have an impact quickly. The biggest surprise has to be that the Fish did not go after a cheap veteran first base option, sorry Wes Helms, for fantasy purposes he doesn't count as an important player.

Where Will Brett Wallace Get His ABs? Brett Wallace, acquired from the Blue Jays, appears to be ready for the big leagues after being traded enough times over the last calendar year. If Wallace gets off to a hot start, he's hit .305/.384/.475 in the minors, he could push Lyle Overbay out of playing time, Edwin Encarnacion out of the lineup or Adam Lind into playing left field full time. Wallace's problem is defense but if his bat is going well, the Blue Jays will have to find somewhere to play him.