RotoSavants.com

Reader Email: Stretch Run Trade

2011-07-20T07:00:00.001-04:00

Joe wrote in to ask us how to improve his team for the stretch run and challenge for first.

A guy has offered me Todd Helton, Ubaldo Jimenez, Nick Swisher and Jered Weaver for Carl Crawford, Josh Hamilton and Mark Teixeira. Is this a good trade? I'm reluctant about this one!! I'm in a 10 team mixed league rotisserie. I am in the top 5 in all categories except SB, ERA, and WHIP...and could also use some more saves. I'm in sixth place 1 pt behind the fifth place team but 16.5 pts behind the 1st place team so I'm lookin to shake things up. Here's a few more players on my team: Uggla, JJ Hardy, Cuddyer, Konerko, Farnsworth, Gallardo, Hudson, Soria, CJ Wilson, Zimmerman, Lohse, and League. Here are some of his other players: Mauer, Kinsler, Ar Ramirez, Andrus, Longoria, Beltran, Morse, Pence, Bourn, D Price, Nathan, Axford, Felix Hernandez, and Beckett. Could you please help me form a good trade that makes sense and would help me the rest of the way. The other owner says almost everybody on his team is tradeable...he is in 9th place.

On first glance, Joe, this trade is not in your favor. One quick way I judge a trade like this is to rank the player on each side, line them up, and do a one for one comparison. Doing that for this team, I don't see how you can even break even. The competing team is clearly trying to buy low on Hamilton and Crawford's injury stints. Even if we say Teixeira and Weaver are a wash (and they aren't, the elite hitters are always more valuable than your elite pitchers), you're getting a raw deal. Jiminez's walk rate has ballooned since last year, Swisher would be more valuable if you were in an OBP league, but his sub .800 OPS isn't worth selling low on Crawford. If you didn't include Tex, I could see the overall trade being more fair.

However, here's my recommendation: if you need to make up ground in SB, ERA, WHIP, and saves, there's no reason to trade a guy who can help you there (Crawford) for it. Saves you can grab on the wire if needed. Guys change jobs and get traded in these next few weeks.

Try to isolate Hamilton in a 1 for 1 deal for a starter. It's a 10 team league, so you should be able to replace Hamilton's homeruns with a more cost effective option (Trumbo), and get another team to pay for the Hamilton pedigree for that elite pitcher. Start this off by offering Hamilton for Weaver. Advertise you are selling Hamilton for a starter. Remember, you can't sell your bats too low, you're only getting 10-12 starts from your new acquisition.

Ride out Crawford. He'll start hitting in Boston, and start running as well; he should easily bounce back for the 2nd half.

If you have any more questions, make sure to contact us on Twitter: @Rotosavants and @fenwayhotspur if you want to reach me directly. Good luck!

Daily Roto Pickups: July 15th

2011-07-15T11:12:00.003-04:00

Mark Trumbo 38% owned - I've talked about Trumbo's value before and while he's borderline replacement value in league with no CI his blend of solid power and occasional speed is definitely valuable in medium to deep leagues.

Michael Brantely 39% owned - Brantley's production so far has been more valuable according to baseball monster than that of OF's like Johnny Damon, Brett Gardner, Colby Rasmus, Bobby Abreu, and Ichiro. I'm not saying that he'll continue to be better than those guys but he's definitely ownable in more than 2/5ths of leagues.

Ryan Ludwick 35% owned - Ludwick is ranked just a bit below Brantley in terms of current value but most of that value is tied up in his 55 RBI. I would definitely be hesitant to pick a guy based on a stat that isn't much in his control, especially a guy who plays for the anemic Padres, but if you really need RBI then he's worth a flier.

Koji Uehara 22% owned - Even if you're not in a Holds league Uehara definitely has value. His peripherals are simply excellent, K/9 well over 11 and BB/9 under 2.00, and he's setting up for one of the worst closers in baseball. Count on him maintaining an ERA under 3.00 and WHIP under 1.00. If he starts to get the ball in the ninth it's just a bonus.

Mike Adams 36% owned - Speaking of RP, Mike Adams has been one of the most effective in the game for quite some time. His peripherals aren't quite as otherworldly as Uehara's but rock solid setup men are definitely an inefficiency in most FBB leagues. According to baseball monster Adams has provided standard league value of a borderline top 100 player so far this year. Any hitter, SP, or CL with such value would have been snatched up long ago; people just aren't valuing non-closer RP properly. You can take advantage of that inefficiency with guys like Adams and Uehara.

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Are the Blue Jays Still Aggressive on the Base Paths?

2011-07-14T07:00:00.000-04:00

Earlier this season I wrote a post about the speed exhibited by some of the Toronto Blue Jays here in which I wondered whether John Farrell's recklessness with his slower players would continue. Just a few weeks into the season guys like Aaron Hill and Travis Snider already had five steals. Some of us were wondering whether the new Jays philosophy involved ignoring the CS stat or whether Ferrell was just trying to use the element of surprise with those players before easing back on the throttle.

Looking back from the midpoint of the season we can see that this surge wasn't a John Farrell thing, it was an Aaron Hill thing. Hill now has eleven stolen bases, five more than his previous season high, and is on pace to swipe somewhere in the mid to high teens. If Hill is looking to partially compensate for his lack of power this year by running more then I'm all for it, after all, he's only been caught once.

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The All-Star Break

2011-07-12T19:25:00.002-04:00

So we've reached the (traditional) half-way mark in the baseball season. Players have risen and fallen (Bautista and Hanley, for example,) been called up and sent down (Trout and Rivera,) and gotten injured and recovered (Lester and Brian Wilson.)

Whether your team is at the top of the heap or looking up at the pack now's the time to reassess and make whatever changes are needed for the long haul. But before then let's take a look at some of the more interesting stories in fantasy baseball in the first half o '11.

Jose Bautista vs. the World. So the jury has a verdict and they've decided that Jose Bautista smells like the Hall of Fame. He's been the most valuable hitter in FBB according to baseballmonster.com and the fact that he provides most of his value without the help of the stolen base put him in company with Adrian Gonzalez as the only elite fantasy hitter without wheels. True, guys like Miggy, Prince, Votto, Konerko, and Berkman aren't exactly speedsters but the difference between Bautista and those guys right now is about the same as the difference between Votto and Mark Trumbo.

The elites are the elites. Looking on baseballmonster again at the top forty-eight players by value we find very few unexpected names. The single most surprising is probably that of Melky Cabrera and while there are others, such as Alex Gordon, Michael Young, Brennan Boesch, Josh Beckett, and James Shields, the bottom line is that there are relatively few total sleepers this year.

The SP are outshining the RP. I went into this season believing that strong closers had become undervalued in fantasy based on the ideas that closer are often as valuable as starters and that they tend to be easier to predict than starters. So far, I look like an idiot. And it's not just the purple striped button down and yellow slacks. The top thirteen performing pitchers are all starters and aside from Michael Pineda could all have been predicted to be top pitchers in '11 (if you're smart enough to predict good results from Beckett and Shields, that is, as was done by someone I know.) The top RP, on the other hand, are a bit of a rag tag bunch made up of Craig Kimbrel, Fernando Salas, Drew Storen, Joel Hanrahan, Johnny Venters, Kyle Farnsworth, Mike Adams, and Antonio Bastardo. There are some very talented gentleman in that group to be sure but you don't get a Brian Wilson, Jonathan Papelbon, or Mariona Rivera until the ninth best producing RP. Those who paid bottom dollar for saves this year have been laughing all the way to the bank.

Cheap SP's can fill out a rotation, but haven't broken into the elite. A smart drafter/waiver wire scourer could have cheaply picked up SP's like Jeff Karstens, Scott Baker, Josh Timlin, Cory Luebke, Erik Bedard, and Brandon Beachy among others but none of those guys are giving you truly stellar numbers. Good, yes. But if you want a pitched provided $25 plus in value this year not named Pineda, Shields, or Beckett you likely needed to spend top dollar for him at the draft.

With a nod to the second half, callups are running wild this year. With Mike Trout getting Major League at-bats already and the KC pair of Hosmer and Moustakas firmly entrenched in the Royals' lineup this may be the year that rookies and callups decide fantasy championships. Their affect on the pitching side of the ledger may be even more pronounced as guys like Pineda, Beachy, Kimbrel, and Venters have all become impact fantasy players. So who will we see next? Jennings in Tampa Bay? Montero in the Bronx? Chime in in the comments with who you think will be the next impact player called up in '11.

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Lopsided Keeper Value On The Block?

2011-06-27T10:38:00.008-04:00

We recently received an email from a reader about trading to lock up the title this year in a keeper league. Specifically, Mikey is wondering whether to trade away Jose Bautista in order to strengthen his SP rotation. Mikey is currently well ahead in HR, RBI, R, and TB, while leading in OBP but not by much. Understandably, he's been thinking about dealing from his strength, offense, to get a SP. He's currently in 1st place but doesn't feel like his lead is safe. The kicker is that he's playing in a keeper league in which he'd be able to keep Bautista in the 16th round next year. The best offers he's received so far are;

Deal 1) Bautista + Lohse for A-Gon + David Price
Deal 2) Bautista + Scherzer + Garza for Ryan Howard + Felix + Scott Baker

Mikey's current SP rotation is: Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Hudson, Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Max Scherzer, James Shields, and Erik Bedard

Below the Savants each take a crack at this particular puzzle.

Aaron: In a word, no and no. I think you can reject the second offer out of hand since the Bautista side is probably a touch stronger even without any consideration of the keeper value. I love Scott Baker but Garza and Scherzer have real value and while I'd rather have King Felix than either you're really not getting ahead much on this deal. Deal #1 is definitely better for you as A-Gon has a better track record and will almost certainly put up better RBI numbers than Bautista while you get a big upgrade going from Lohse to Price. Still, I can't get over the lost keeper value you're giving up. I ran a study on round values for one of my slightly deeper leagues earlier this year and found that a 16th round pick is worth about $6. If we assume that in your league a 16th round pick is worth about $5 and Bautista will be a $40-45 player next year then you're giving up $35-40 in value by trading him. Sure, that value doesn't affect this year's race but it's real value that you're losing, and that's assuming that you keep him for only one year. For this trade to be worth it I think you'd have to be getting a Halladay or Lincecum along with A-Gon, not just a David Price. Obviously that means that it's pretty unlikely that you can get a deal done that's good enough for both parties but that's a fact of life when it comes to keeper leagues. Just like in real baseball contract realities can make it very difficult to acquire certain players.

So try to hold on for this year, maybe targeting under-performing aces like Chris Carpenter, Ricky Nolasco, or Ryan Dempster. The head start you'll get for next year will more than make up for any nail-biting that you might have to endure over the next three months or so.

Lee: My feeling is simple. Keeper values exist to leverage a championship run. I'll always trade an awesome keeper if it locks up a win. A real win is much greater than 3 or 4 hypothetical ones. Still, there is some common sense to be had about how lopsided a keeper value can be.

Let's look at the first trade, specifically. Basically, you're trading the rights to Joey Bats in the 16th round for David Price; I say this because we'll make the assumption that Adrian and Bautista will be a wash for the remainder of the season.

My concern? Is one pitcher's 15-18 starts really going to help your ERA/WHIP that much, or are you just hedging your bets on cheap wins?

If we assume you're middle of the road, I'll peg your ERA at 3.8, and WHIP at 1.3, and you've used about half your innings. If we assume your 6 other starters perform as they have to this point, Price's FIP+xFIP average of 2.9 will only account for 1/7th of your remaining innings.

I'll pick a decent IP average, 1400. This means Price has saved you 10 ER for the 2nd half of the season over a pitcher with a 3.8 ERA. He's dropped your ERA by .1 by himself for the season.

I think if you deal Bautista, getting multiple pitchers to offset your expected results in the second half would be smarter. Manager B, if talked into having the deal be Howard, Felix, and Baker for only Joey Bats may be a starting point. Make sure you hammer home to trade partners just how valuable Joey Bats is. A comparable, but lesser, bat plus two SP upgrades would be the only fair option you could start with.

When you consider 2012 and beyond, I think his extremely favorable keeper value makes him virtually untradeable; you simply won't get enough back if your pitching needs that much help. Sit on him, and deal a different piece of strength for a more fair upgrade. No matter how much another manager gives up (like the equivalent bat in trade A), if they are already out of it, they have nothing to lose.

Only considering this year, I think if you have to pick one of these deals, I'd still pick Deal A. Why? As I said before, you're basically getting David Price for free because you'd be dropping Lohse anyway. Even though you lose the keeper value, it's irrelevant if you win the league (and if you have other options). Deal B has you trading two buy low candidates, one of which could easily match Baker in the 2nd half, in return for a downgrade in hitting and a modest bump by Felix? That trade would actually be very fair if Bautista didn't have an absurd keeper value, but it's clearly the lesser of the two.

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Daily Roto Pickups: June 27th

2011-06-27T09:51:00.002-04:00

Corey Luebke SP, SD, (6%) - Luebke has taken over the fifth stop in the rotation for the Padres and there's every reason to believe that he can help your fantasy team as long as he can hold onto the spot. We have to be a bit careful with his numbers in the big leagues since most of them came out of the bullpen but it's hard to argue with a career K/9 above 9.0 and solid control. He was primarily a starter in the minors where he showed excellent control even if his K rate didn't approach what we've seen so far this year. Pitchers usually lose some of their statistical shine when moving to the rotation but even if that happens to Luebke he can always fall back on the bonus of playing in a fantastic pitcher's park.

Chase Headley 3B, SD, (27%) - Headley has always been a borderline 3B in fantasy leagues. He has less power than you'd want from a CI (12 HR in 156 in '09 has been his season high) but more speed than you'd expect from the hot corner (17 last year.) The interesting thing about his line this year is that his BB% is creeping up into the very good level, meaning that he'll have that many more opportunities to swipe bags. If you've already got a cushion in HR's and need a CI who's going to get you some Steals while not ruining your BA you could do worse than Headley.

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Fantasy Crystal Ball

2011-06-24T13:00:00.001-04:00

Don't forget that during this time of the fantasy year that trades, daily pickups, and keeper considerations are in full focus.

Having problems trying to fit that last piece into your team? Deciding if you're a buyer dumping keepers, or a seller trying to stack the deck for 2012? Contact the team and we'll guide you along up until your league's trading deadline.

Email any question to the team at: TroyPatterson@RotoSavants.com

Contact us on Twitter at @Rotosavants, @TroyPatterson (Troy) and @fenwayhotspur (Lee) for quick hit questions as well!

Daily Roto Pickups: June 24th

2011-06-24T07:00:00.001-04:00

Jordan Lyles, SP Hou (1.7%): A victim of his poor strand rate (67%), Lyles only really had one "rough" outing, his start in San Diego (ironic, right?) on June 5th. Lyles has been returning above average strikeouts, and has an excellent walk rate to this point (1.8 BB/9). While the Astros offense couldn't bail him out on Wednesday, 3 ER versus the Rangers was an positive step forward for his confidence. Wins may be scarce, but the numbers look encouraging to me, and Lyles should be available in pretty much every league. Feel free to sit him versus elite offenses or in tough parks (remember, Minute Maid is neutral!) for you mixed leagues, but NL-Only clubs can easily view him as a possible 5th starter.

AJ Pierzynski, C CWS (9.8%): Looking for a quick fill in for your catcher (that's you, Mike Napoli owners), or a hot second catcher? AJ's been raking lately to the tune of .377/.483/.860 in June. is he going to keep it up? Probably not for much longer, but with how volatile catchers' performances can be, it's good to ride the hot hand if you need it.

Jemile Weeks, 2B OAK (21%): Surprised that his ownership is so low? So am I. Weeks has posted a .867 OPS in his first 14 games at a position that's still full of slow starters (Uggla, Hill), and it's almost July! With Ellis really struggling, Weeks will probably hold the position for the duration of the season. Weeks doesn't quite have the statistical dominance in his minor league career like some other rookies that have been called up recently, so I would be thinking about parlaying him to some teams selling for next year if his success continues over the next month or so.

You can find Lee on Twitter at @fenwayhotspur and the team at @Rotosavants

Just Beachy

2011-06-23T07:00:00.001-04:00

As I'm writing this, the top of the sixth inning just ended, and Brandon Beachy has held the Blue Jays in check today; 11 strikeouts, 4 hits, 2 walks, 1 earned run(solo HR by Jose Bautista).

At the beginning of the season, Beachy was an afterthought. He was supposed to be a quick band-aid while the highly touted Mike Minor got healthy, and came out of the gate firing on all cylinders. Before today's matchup with Toronto, Beachy has sported all-star caliber numbers, even with the oblique strain.

Beachy's 9.34 K/9 ranks 9th among players with at least 40 innings. His K/BB ratio of 3.83 ranks 12th. While only possessing a slightly favorable BABIP(.267) and HR/FB%(8.9%) for the current season , the rest of Beachy's warning indicator statistics (LOB%) look in line with league norms, which has kept his ERA and FIP within percentage points of each other. Pretty impressive over Beachy's 8th start, especially considering the brevity of the final one where he left injured. All in all, this is a very promising month and a half of work form Beachy, and something that savvy manager should have pounced on when rivals started to jettison him once he hit the disabled list.

One concern I tend to always have with any starting pitcher centers around their ground ball rates. For FIP and xFIP minded individuals like me, it's well been established that even though the opposing BABIP on ground balls trend higher than flyballs, the run expectancy for groundballs is more favorable. This is why with the exception of a few flyball outliers, pitchers who establish the Big 3 metrics in their favor (K/9, BB/9, GB%) have a better chance to succeed over their counterparts once statistical noise settles down. So naturally, I raised an eyebrow seeing Beachy's paltry 31% ground ball rate.

We've seen pitchers with poor groundball rates florish and be part of baseball's elite. Some of the more notable repeaters like Ted Lilly, Matt Cain, and Johan Santana have excelled in favorable parks. Others have had stellar outfield defense behind them to drag down those would be doubles in the gap (Jarrod Washburn, 2009). For the repeaters in this group though, they offset a lack of groundball rate with high strikeout totals, low walks, and in elite cases like Santana, Cain, Jered Weaver, and even 2011 Scott Baker(only owned in 62% of ESPN leagues, go get him), an extremely high infield fly ball rate* tends to help support lower BABIPs as well. Beachy satisfies the first two requirements, but his IFFB% isn't in the high 14s like Weaver or Santana. A slightly above average 10.9% can't be the entire reason his early success has blossomed.

Looking at Beachy's game log, April 30th jumped out at me: a home game against the, at the time, hot hitting Cardinals. If you discount Beachy's large 15/2 FB/GB split in this game, his GB% for the season rises to 36%. When looking at Beachy's other 7 starts, the April 30th split does look like an outlier. After Wednesday's game (Beachy was pulled after 6 and got the W) gets put in the books and we see his FB/GB split, we'll have one more data point to judge against, hopefully helping us uncover whether this dominating performance still has Beachy closer to the Lillys than the Halladays of starting pitchers.

Regardless of how curious I am to see Beachy's groundball rate shake out, you have to be happy with him to this point if you were lucky enough to spend that $1 at auction, draft him late, or snag him on the wire. Beachy is currently owned in only 29.6% of ESPN leagues. That's crazy. Go pick him up if you have the opportunity.

After a brief first half season sabbatical to attend to newest addition to my family's roster, I decided to settle back in with a player I was monitoring early in the offseason and was lucky enough to obtain in my competitive auction for only $1. I'm looking forward to sharing with you all again.

You can find Lee on Twitter at @fenwayhotspur and the team at @Rotosavants

You Could Do Worse for Power

2011-06-22T11:12:00.000-04:00

Head on over to RotoHardBall and check my new look at DH fill in Wily Mo Pena for the Arizona Diamondbacks. After finally getting the time he might have needed developing at Triple-A could he be that late bloomer?

Probably not, but you could do worse to find a power source at this point in the season. Remember he did hit 26 home runs in 2004 with the Reds, but just never learned to hit the breaking stuff. Being back in the NL, in a hitters park he could be that high power and low average guy many teams could use right now.

What's up with Mat Latos?

2011-06-22T07:00:00.000-04:00

I was a believer in Mat Latos this season. After a stellar sophomore campaign during which he sported a sparkling 3.21 xFIP to go along with a 2.92 ERA I was hoping that Latos could be the ace on a couple of my fantasy teams. Unfortunately that hasn't happened. After an early season injury Latos has returned on schedule only to put up a 4.06 ERA through 13 starts (and he got hit hard by the Red Sox last night which isn't included in that number.) So what happened? My take after the jump.

In '10 Latos managed to translate his exceptional minor league strikeout numbers to the big leagues as his K/9 was an elite 9.21 to go along with a SwStr rate of 11.0%. Clearly, the kid could miss some bats. Couple that with a very good BB% of 2.44 and the boost you can expect from playing home games in PetCo and there was reason for a lot of optimism.

This season has been different but not by as much as the 1+ point difference in ERA might suggest. His K/9 is 8.12, BB/9 is 3.23, and SwStr% is 10.4. All of those numbers are good. The red flags show up when we look at Latos' velocity. Across the board his pitches are coming in 1-1.5 mph slower than last year. Given his recent injury the story becomes pretty clear. His stuff is a bit due to loss of velocity caused by his Springtime injury giving hitters just that much more of a chance at the plate. However, Latos is still putting up very good numbers, thus the solid xFIP, and has gotten unlucky when it comes to ERA (his BABIP is up even while his LD% is down, for instance.) Put it all together and what does it spell? Potential trade target. Don't expect fantasy gold but if you can pry Latos from a frustrated owner he should provide solid innings from here on out. If you notice increased velocity over a couple off starts then definitely start sending the offers.

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The A-Gon Effect

2011-06-20T10:00:00.004-04:00

Boston fans are starting to realize just what a tremendous hitter they acquired this Winter in Adrian Gonzalez. He's on pace for a ridiculous number of RBI while producing very good results at all other expected fantasy categories. Heck, he's even doubled his career Steals total this year. But this post isn't about A-Gon. It's about David Ortiz.

There's been a lot of talk so far this year about whether part of Big Papi's resurgence is due to the A-Gon Effect. Gonzalez is known to be an extremely diligent student of the game of hitting and he and Ortiz have been seen in some serious conversations in the dugout. What are they talking about? Probably not Dunkin Donuts iced coffee. The question is, do the numbers support the idea that Ortiz has become a better hitter due to the confabs with Gonzalez? Short answer-yes.

I tried to cast my net wide when looking at Ortiz so far this season to see what, if anything, caught my eye. His HR chart looks about the same as last year's, his BB rate is about the same but slightly down, his HR/FB is almost exactly equal to his career mark. So far nothing interesting here but we're just getting started. Ortiz' K rate sits at 12.1%, almost ten percent lower than his career mark and more than five percent lower than his lowest full season mark. His LD% sits at 20.4%, his highest mark by far since '05. So far it looks like David is being more selective and striking the ball more solidly, makes sense. It gets a little weird when we look at just how selective he's been. Ortiz' O-Swing% sits at 25.4% which would be the second highest of his career if he kept it up for the whole season. Despite this high rate of O-Swings, though, his SwStr% is just 6.4, much lower than his career mark of 6.4% and even well below his lowest full season total of 8.2% back in '07. In other words, he's swinging at roughly the same amount of "bad" pitches but he's making a lot more contact. Either he's swinging at different "bad" pitches or he's handling his bat with more control and avoiding the swing and miss.

Of course, the biggest jump that one would expect if A-Gon were really helping Ortiz would probably be seen in how Ortiz handles lefties. Gonzalez is a hitting connoisseur and we need only look at his "Ichiro" HR against Sabathia to know that this guy studies swings like Stephen Hawking studies quantum particles. I have very little doubt that the first thing Gonzalez said to Ortiz in the clubhouse was something like "Hey, I don't know whether you know this but your swing...." The numbers are definitely suggestive. Ortiz has been below average against lefties in every season since '07. This year he has a .442 wOBA against south paws. That would be a career best for a full season. It's also well over a hundred points higher than in any of the past three seasons and almost two hundred points higher than last year. I would expect some regression but that kind of jump in the numbers coupled with the scouting reports backing up the new found ability point to one thing. No not PED's, the A-Gon Effect.

Could Ortiz just be riding a string of luck? Maybe. But it seems highly unlikely given the extreme numbers he's producing in K%, LD%, SwStr%, and against lefties. Sure, some of the numbers are partially measuring the same things but when you put it all together it's more likely that Ortiz has improved his game than that he's just getting lucky. The most obvious reason that we can point to for Ortiz' improvement is that he's getting a serious mental workout from Adrian Gonzalez. Both are professional hitters of the highest caliber and it seems that the most likely conclusion is A-Gon has breathed new life into Ortiz' game. Whatever payout Ortiz was hoping for after this season Theo ought to pay it.

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Movers and Shakers

2011-06-15T09:32:00.002-04:00

Miguel Olivo - Anyone who drafted Olivo hoping for a little pop have been pleasantly surprised so far this year. The Mariner backstop has single handedly make us wonder whether our park factors for SafeCo need to be adjusted. New flash-they don't. Olivo's power surge has come almost exclusively on the road as only three of his ten dingers have been hit in Seattle. Still, if you're expecting Olivo to top 20 HR's I don't think that's too unreasonable. He's hitting a lot more fly balls this year and while his power hasn't necessarily increased if he's really going to put almost half of his batted balls in the air then he's naturally going to hit more HR's. Unfortunately, more fly balls probably also means a lower BA as the BABIP on fly balls is much lower than that on ground balls.

Johnny Damon - While Damon has been a pleasant surprise so far there are some real red flags in his game. His BB% has dropped to just 5.8% after five straight seasons over 10%. His BA hasn't suffered but his OBP is the lowest it's been since 2001 which will cut down on his SB and R opportunities. Speaking of SB's Johnny's already been caught four times this year while so his seven successful swipes have to be taken with a grain of salt. If he continues at this pace his success percentage would be his lowest by far since 1997 and you can be sure that the stat heads in Tampa are keeping track. Don't be surprised to see Johnny getting the stop sign if he can't turn it around. I'm not saying that Johnny isn't a useful piece this year but if you're expecting 25/20 you're probably being too optimistic. ZiPS projects his final stats at 16/16 which looks pretty reasonable to me.

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Featured Trade Follow Up

2011-06-14T10:44:00.002-04:00

Well the results are in. After eighty-nine total votes 71% of voters at TradeBashers would rather have received Roy Halladay than Jay Bruce and Bobby Abreu in an OBP league. You can see the trade for yourself here.

I was a bit surprised by the amount Halladay won by but this is still a somewhat close vote as it wasn't 95% to 5% or anything. I usually consider anything that comes back at 80/20 or closer to be at least considerable. But it does show that this offer isn't going to blow away a Halladay owner when he sees it so the question is, what do I have to do to get him to feel like he has to make the deal? Given my dominance in offense, I'm currently five points away from perfect, do I consider offering a guy like Adrian Gonzalez, as one of the commenters on yesterday's post suggested? I think it might help my team but it's hard to stomach giving up a top five hitter for a SP, even one as amazing as Halladay.

To put some numbers behind the discussion let's say that A-Gon has proven himself a $50 dollar player. He's going to put up amazing A+ RBI numbers while providing A level production everywhere else (and hey, he's got one whole steal so far this year, too!) I'd rather have Pujols or Bautista than A-Gon but can't think of too many other players. Halladay has had a great year, fueled by a pretty big jump in K/9 which maybe pushes his value to the low $40's, let's say $45. Is the $5 difference in value worth worrying about when making a trade this big? Probably not. Maybe I just need to get over the "elite hitters are way more valuable than elite pitchers" mentality and make this offer. What it really comes down to is a question of whether my offense can take the loss, I think it can, and my pitching needs the help, it does.

What do you think? Should I suck up the lost $5 in value on this trade in order to shore up the biggest weakness on my team? Or should I continue to look for the trade that will help me while still being as equal as possible in value?

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TradeBashers Featured Trade

2011-06-13T05:00:00.005-04:00

I've said before that pulling off a trade in fantasy baseball can be one of the most difficult tricks in the game. Opposing managers always value their own players a bit too much while no one wants to get the worst of it. I've been trying to move hitting for pitching in one of my leagues this year as I'm tops in R, RBI, and OBP, while maintaining very strong marks in S and HR. My pitching, on the other hand, is suspect as you can see from my roster below:

C - Carlos Santana
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
2B - Maicer Izturis
3B - Jose Bautista
SS - Yunel Escobar
CI - Carlos Pena
MI - Eric Young
OF - Andrew McCutchen
OF - Jay Bruce
OF - Bobby Abreu
OF - Rajai Davis
UTIL - Mark Reynolds

P - Craig Kimbrel
P - Jonathan Papelbon
P - Kyle Farnsworth
P - Ricky Nolasco
P - Jonathan Sanchez
P - Mat Latos
P - Chris Narveson
P - Bud Norris

I'm fine with my pitching core but I could use an A+ ace so I've been trying to pull off a trade for a guy like Halladay, Lester, Hamels, or the like. I have a lot of pieces to offer. Bruce, Reynolds, or Pena are all guys who don't hold a lot of value on my team given my strengths and I could even consider losing A-Gon or Bautista. I'd rather not offer McCutchen since Steals is still a category I'm competing in, although the addition of Eric Young might make McCutchen expendable.

So what's fair at this point? One of my first offers was Bruce and Abreu for Halladay. First of all, Halladay is amazing. But I don't know that he maintains his elite K/9 (9.06) for the rest of the season as it's well above his career mark (6.82). Bruce has finally come into his own and Abreu in an OBP league, which this is, is still a valuable commodity. I find that while elite pitchers are often discounted on draft day they aren't during the season. So while Bruce in a redraft league might go in the second round along with Halladay managers have a hard time trading a top three SP for a top ten OF, even if their relative values are similar.

So what do you think? Is some package centered around Jay Bruce enough to get Roy Halladay? If not, what does it take to get a top of the heap SP? A top hitter like Adrian Gonzalez who would go ten to twenty picks or five to ten dollars ahead of Halladay in a draft?

Head over to TradeBashers.com to vote on which side of the trade you'd prefer receive.

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Checking in on the Underachievers

2011-06-10T10:08:00.002-04:00

Dan Uggla - I remember spending some time debating between Dan Uggla and Jose Bautista with a second round draft pick this year. Thank goodness I went North of the border. Uggla has been doing a good impression or the worst hitter in baseball as he is the proud owner of a .170/.235/.304 slash line for the season. When your Slg% would only rank seventeenth at your position on the OBP scale you know there's a problem. After five seasons as the Adam Dunn of second base something is definitely wrong with Uggla. His .184 BABIP is certainly part of the problem but he's also walking less and his ISO has taken a nosedive down to .135 from a career mark of .218. All of his batted ball data look bad as he's hitting a lot more worm-burners and pop-ups than ever while his LD% has fallen off a cliff. He's at least on pace to hit 20 HR or so so if you're desperate then keep playing him but if you can afford to bench him and wait for some good signs then by all means do so.

Chris Carpenter - Unlike Uggla's many of Carps numbers look just fine. His K/9 of 7.12 and BB/9 of 2.23 are fine and very good respectively and both numbers are better than his career marks. His GB% is down a bit but probably nothing to worry about and both his FIP and xFIP are comfortably below his career marks. So why the 4.25 ERA and 1.41 WHIP? That's right, variance. His BABIP is an unfriendly .333 while his LOB% is 69.5%, not the lowest mark in the world but the last time his LOB slipped below 70 for a full season was 2000 so I think we can expect improvement. In fact, it's hard to find any red flags when it comes to Carp as his velocity is up, hi SwStr% is up, and his value as a trade target is definitely up as you might be able to take advantage of a frustrated owner to swoop in and grab one of the more valuable pitchers on the market.

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Identifying a New Skill

2011-06-08T11:41:00.000-04:00

Every season we see a player who walks a bit more or hits for more power or strikes out more. That in itself is never enough to make roster changes on since regression is always the way to go when projecting forward.

This is why things like pitch f/x and spray charts, etc. have made such a big change in the way we can project new approaches or major changes. Today I posted an article at RotoHardBall.com that attempts to find how Jose Tabata has increased his walk rate in 2011 to a level twice of that he produced in his first season and higher than any minor league season as well.

You'll see how I did it over there, but I feel confident he has worked on some things and so far they have payed off. He probably will not maintain the 13 percent walk rate, but I don't doubt it will continue to be higher than last years rate going forward.

Daily Roto Pickups: June 6th

2011-06-07T07:00:00.000-04:00

Mark Trumbo LAA, 1B, (33%) - Tumbo's low ownership is likely partially explained by those who haven't checked in on the Angels' situation since opening day but there're definitely reasons to look harder at first base in Anaheim. Two reasons to be exact-home runs, and steals. Trumbo's ISO is currently seventh among qualified 1B's at .221 and his stolen base total, six, ties him with Joey Votto for the lead among his colleagues at the cold corner. While I would expect the HR's to keep coming based on solid minor league production the speed is more suspect. Tumbo has just one minor league season with double digit steals and has already been caught three times this year but if his manager is willing to let him try his luck on the base paths his owners will certainly benefit.

Tim Stauffer, SD, SP, (33%) - Stauffer is carrying a career best K/9 and BB/9 so far this year and has a sparkling xFIP of 3.18 to show for it. Unfortunately his ERA has lagged to the tune of 3.99, likely inflated by his BABIP of .330. Normally guys who come in from the bullpen, where he had thirty-appearances last year to go with just seven starts, lose a little in terms of strikeout rate so if you do go with Stauffer keep a close eye on him. Another red flag is his relatively low SwStr% of 7.4 but if you need to speculate on a starter you could to worse than a guy with a 7.07 K/9 and a 2.44 BB/9 who plays his home games in PetCo.

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Daily Roto NOT Pickups: June 3rd

2011-06-03T10:00:00.003-04:00

Jason Bay NYM, OF (54%) - Something is wrong with Bay. After posting seven straight seasons including just one with an ISO below .230 he posted a mark of .144 last year and has plummeted to .079 this season. His HR/FB% has fallen off a cliff to around 5% in the past two seasons after routinely sitting in the high teens and his FB% has fallen a bit, as well. What exactly is wrong with him? I have no idea. Maybe he's hurt, or cursed. Whatever it is he's hitting for no power and walking less than ever. ZiPS (13/61/54/10/.243 updated proj.) and I agree that you really don't want to go near this guy.
Alternatives - Michael Brantely, 49% owned; Todd Helton, 39% owned; Seth Smith, 29% owned.

John Danks CWS, SP (49%) - Danks isn't quite as unownable as Bay but at this point he's really more of an innings eater than anything. His K/9 has fallen below 6.0 and his walk rate is a decent-but-nothing-special 3.20/9. Don't be fooled by three consecutive seasons of an ERA below 4.00 as everything has to break just right for a pitcher with such a low K rate to succeed. I wouldn't expect his ERA to stay North of 5.00 but don't expect it to dip much below the mid 4's either.
Alternatives - Bud Norris, 46% owned; Edwin Jackson, 42% owned; Brandon Beachy, 26% owned (returning in a couple weeks from oblique strain.)

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RotoHardBall.com and Curtis Granderson

2011-06-01T11:19:00.000-04:00

In case you haven't been following me on twitter (Why not? @TroyPatterson) you might not know, but I have started writing for RotoHardBall.com at the SB Nation site. There is a great lineup there so I suggest you check it out. I just posted my first article there about the power surge from Curtis Granderson in New York this year.

Something I had gotten away from recently was hittrackeronline.com data. This can be really helpful and shows what Granderson is and could be. I also used this to describe why I think Asdrubal Cabrera is not for real (6 out of 10 home runs were "Just Enough or Lucky"). Anyway head over to my Granderson article and see why we should have seen this power coming.

Daily Roto Pickups: June 1st

2011-06-01T09:17:00.002-04:00

Brent Lillibridge CWS, 2B (OF) (1%) - I've mentioned Lillibridge before as a cheap option for speed at second base but lately he's been showing some power to go along with his wheels. In fact, his current ISO of .317 would put him third in the majors behind only Bautista and Granderson if Lillibridge had enough AB's to qualify. Not that I think he'll maintain that mark but he did sport a decent ISO of .153 over sixty-four games last year so expecting a bit of pop isn't irrational. The problem with Lillibridge is playing time. He sits behind Pierre, Rios, and Quentin in the OF, and Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham in the infield. Of course, if Juan Pierre gets caught stealing a few more times, nine SB, eight CS, then maybe the White Sox will decide to give Lillibridge a shot at the starting job. Unfortunately, we have to play our hands based on what the team is likely to do, not what they should do, and so Lillibridge is likely a speculative grab at this point in all but deep leagues.

Chris Narveson MIL, SP, (15%) - Narveson is like the poor man's Bud Norris, who is already the poor man's Brandon Morrow, who is the poor man's, um, Tim Lincecum? He fits into the mold of a high strikeout pitcher-8.45 K/9 this season, 7.96 career-with decent control-3.32 BB/9 this season, 3.24 career. This year he's also managed to up his GB% to a decent 43.2% which has led to an xFIP of 3.29, 26th in the majors. This season has seen Narveson make positive jumps in a lot of categories-SwStr%, F-Strike%, O-Swing%, and Contact% in addition to the stats I've already discussed-so if you think he's taken the next step in his development now's the time to grab him. If you think he's just a journeyman having a bit of luck he's still worth a bench spot as a high K SP.

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Daily Roto Pickups: May 31st

2011-05-31T10:20:00.003-04:00

Seth Smith COL, OF (31% owned) - Smith may not lead your team in AB's but he has very good power, 200+ ISO, and a bit of speed so if you have a free roster spot and don't mind checking matchups he's a great platoon candidate. There are also some positivve signs that Smith might be taking the next step in his development as he's currently supporting career bests in ISO, BA, SLG, wOBA, and wRC+. Part of that is a result of his career best .345 BABIP but don't expect a huge regression there as his career best LD% of 22.3 likely means that while his BABIP may be a bit high, it's probably not that inflated. The icing on the cake is that he's already stolen three bases this year, just one behind his previous career high so a 20/10 season isn't out of the question, especially if he can play his way into playing time against lefties.

Bartolo Colon NYY, SP (36%) - I'm very hesitant to recommend this guy but it's hard to argue with the 8.41 K/9, the 2.04 BB/9, or the 2.91 xFIP. While those are all stellar numbers and his fantasy results have been stellar so far keep in mind that the last time he topped 7.0 K/9, let alone 8.0, for an entire season was waaaaaay back in 2001. Another red flag-his swinging strike rate is just 6.0, which is really bad. Given the predictive value of swinging strike rate you would expect Colon to be striking out closer to 5.0/9 that 8.0/9. You know what? Forget it. I'm not going to recommend this guy. You want to try to catch lightning in a bottle, go ahead. But unless you're in a deep league or AL only this guy isn't really worthy of any but the most speculative of grabs. If you can live with an expected K/9 of 6 or so and a BB/9 of 2.5 to 3 then go for it. Just don't be surprised when Colon regresses to his career norms and starts performing like the number five starter that he is.

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Over Managing a "Slump"

2011-05-26T06:00:00.000-04:00

I've been debating some on Twitter (@TroyPatterson) lately about the actual reality of hot streaks and cold slumps. There is no evidence that a slump/streak is anything more than just random chance and variance. I mean if you understand the idea of BABIP then a streak or slump is easy to explain.

The problem is when a slump turns into something longer even if you can explain it with BABIP you see managers start to ruin your fantasy dreams. We saw this big time in 2008 with Kelly Johnson and may see it again for him in 2011. Both years though he had a BABIP around .250 in a small sample of at bats.

The reason I bring this up is Carlos Santana was benched yesterday due to his slow start when it comes to average. This was his second day off in the past three games. Manager Manny Acta said he was concerned even though his power is still good.

Even if Santana is going to be a poor average hitter as he is starting to show he has amazing OBP skills and great power. A hitter who walks 17 percent of the time and has a .341 OBP when struggling to get hits is good. When he is a catcher he is great.

Even with his struggles and a poor defensive value so far he is seventh overall among catchers in WAR. In fantasy value he is top 3 in HR and R and top 7 in RBI. Obviously if the manager gets cautious he can ruin your players value real quick, but I can't see the surging Indians hurting their chances by limiting one of their best, but lets hope a few more hits fall to up his BABIP from .216 and make Acta's choice easier.

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Ottoneu and the Pick Six

2011-05-25T09:52:00.000-04:00

This is an unrequested and non advertised review, but today I am taking my first shot at the FanGraphs fantasy version of daily picks at Ottoneu. This system is based off the FanGraphs point system so don't go there expecting someone like Jacoby Ellsbury to be a steal...pun intended. The weight of points is based off of linear weights.

The idea is a salary based structure to buy $120.00 worth of players at 6 positions. C, CI, MI, OF, SP, RP Obviously this will take some knowledge of playing time, platoon options and home and away splits.

Today my roster is as follows: Russell Martin, Jose Bautista, Kelly Johnson, Corey Hart, Mat Latos and Jonathan Papelbon

Based on matchups they should all be starting, which is obviously a key. I like Latos at home and both Martin and Bautista should benefit from Yankee Stadium today.

I'm going to work on some strategies and discuss them here in the next few weeks so if you haven't tried this out head on over and try. Did I mention it's Free?

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Hits and Misses

2011-05-25T09:38:00.002-04:00

We on the blogosphere spend a lot of time prognosticating and, like most wanna be Nostrodomi, little time testing those hypotheses. Today I wanted to take a look at some of my preseason advice and see when I was on to something and when I was on something.

Hits
Josh Beckett - I pegged Beckett for a strong comeback based on his consistent body of work and he hasn't disappointed. While I had him just behind guys like Kershaw, Hanson, and Price he's actually outpitched all of them.
James Shields - I slotted Shield firmly in my second tier of SP right behind Beckett and he's rewarded me by carrying the second best fantasy line among all pitchers, according to Baseballmonster.
Adrian Gonzalez - I went out on a limb in my post "Adrian Gonzalez Should be the Concensus Third Pick in 2011" but he's supported that assertion in his first season in Boston. Leading the league in RBI Gonzalez is showing us what a superstar he can really be. Imagine where his fantasy value would be if he hadn't had a power outage in April.
Ichiro - I had him as my 25th best OF, Baseballmonster says he's been 30th best.

Misses
Jered Weaver - I may have been a bit too enamored of the phrase "big ol' wallop from the regression stick," when discussing the Angels' ace. He's been able to continue his dominance from last year with no real sign of the regression I expected.
Mat Latos/Francisco Liriano - I slotted both gentlemen in at the very tail of my tier one SP list and have been disappointed by both. Not quite sure what I was thinking with Liriano as he's posted an xFIP under 4.25 exactly once since 2008.
Jose Bautista - I wasn't exactly in the crowd expecting 25-30 (more like 40) but I did put the best fantasy player on the planet in my tier two for 3B. That's a miss.
Ryan Braun - I expressed concern over his power numbers. That concern was unwarranted.

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