RotoSavants League News

Week 1 - Chipper Stolen Away

noreply@blogger.com (Troy Patterson) — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 16:00:00 +0000

Week one is here and we are going to start our Baseball Prospectus writing contest. I am still looking for many more stories and now that your draft is over you should have some entertaining stories. Perhaps the home team homer ruined his team by drafting his players much to early or your league has an interesting draft setup that would be differentto the rest of us. Please forward all stories to TroyPatterson@RotoSavants.com

This story comes from Steve and about a long term league and what happens when youngsters get involved.

I am in a 13 team NL only league that has been around since 1987. 8 of the originals still play and it is a live auction and over the years owners have brought their sons w/them to the best day of the year happenings. We have seen grade schoolers grow up and head off to college and it has provided some fun moments at the auction.

One year an owner was allowing his 7 year old son to nominate his players when it was his turn. The young lad obviously had a few favorites but when he nominated Chipper Jones, he was wriggling w/excitement. His dad kept the bidding going and it stalled at $19 w/the boy about to acquire his favorite player. The auctioneer said going once..going twice...when another owner leaped in w/ a $20 bid. The boy gasped and audibly let out a prolonged AWWWW!! after an uneasy silence, the owner of $20 chipper turned to the boy and said, "hey, there's no crying in baseball"

H2H Keeper Draft Recap

noreply@blogger.com (Kevin Jebens) — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 12:00:00 +0000

Time to give you guys some insight into the mind of a Roto Savant. I’m breaking down a team that I took over for last year in a Yahoo H2H keeper league. The slow, offline draft was nearly over when I inherited it, so I had a lot of (bad) choices already made for me. However, this team was in horrible condition when I started, and I turned it into a second-place finish for the regular season, with a third-place playoff finish.

Keepers from 2008 (Year in parentheses is the final season of contract)

C – Russell Martin (2010) – He may not turn into the super-stud some people thought he’d be, but a catcher that can go 15/15 is still a valuable commodity.

1B – Prince Fielder (2011) – A “disappointment” in 2008 because he didn’t near his previous HR total, but he’s a solid option for a corner infielder.

2B – Brian Roberts (2010) – Second base is deep this year, but this team started 2008 with Cano, and I was able to trade for Roberts. A nice move on my part, as Cano had a poor season, and Roberts did more of the same.

OF – Vladimir Guerrero (2009) – Old reliable. He’s fading now, but he’s pretty consistent for his weekly production, and that’s an advantage in H2H and points leagues.

OF – Jacoby Ellsbury (2009) – A hyped-up player that is overvalued, but he performed well enough. The split time hurt him in 2008, but he won’t have that problem this year.

OF – Michael Bourn (2009) – The one-category speedsters have a good place in H2H leagues. You can plug them in when you need to catch up in SB. With Ellsbury, Bourn, and eventually Roberts, I was very hard to beat in that category.

SP – Roy Halladay (2009) – A strong ace who was undervalued after a mediocre (for him) 2007 season. I wish I had him locked up for longer, because ...

SP – Jeff Francis (2011) – This contract hurts. A lot. After a good 2007 season, Francis battled injuries and ineffectiveness, and now he’s out for all of 2009. I can dump him, but I’ll lose my first and second round picks in 2010 if I do. If I can at least slot him in my DL spot, I might be able to manage.

Now that you see what I had to work with, here’s what I grabbed in the 2009 draft:

FA Draft Results

SP – Ervin Santana – At the time, I knew Francis might be a little behind schedule, but he wasn’t out for the year. Even if he was healthy, though, I didn’t think I could rely on him. I felt that my ability to pick up offensive help during the year made starters the priority for round 1. Ervin Santana might have been one of (if not the) most valuable starters in 2008 for H2H leagues. Why? According to Ron Shandler’s criteria, he didn’t pitch a single disastrous start. Not one. Other guys like Johan and Webb came close, but they had at least one bad outing. And who was the only other SP to match Ervin’s feat in 2008? Roy Halladay, who’s already on my team. I figure it was a great one-two punch, and I couldn’t resist. Of course, now he might miss a few starts, so this could put a damper on my season. One reason why I usually don't go for SP first. We'll see if breaking my own rule comes back to bite me.

SS – Alexei Ramirez – His eligibility at multiple positions in Yahoo really helps here, but he’ll mainly play SS for my team. He’s a candidate for one of my three contracts to assign this year.

OF – Andre Ethier – He may not be much to look at (yet), but he’s another guy who produces consistently ever week. His high average doesn’t directly factor into H2H leagues, but quite frankly, it means more hits. The kid has nowhere to go but up, and I see a line of .300/90/25/90 as no problem for him, especially with Manny returning to the Dodgers. He’s a candidate for one of my three contracts to assign this year.

3B – Alex Gordon – Okay, so I probably could have waited on him considering Adrian Beltre is undrafted at the time of this post. This is the pick that could burn me badly. A lot of people are already writing him off as a fantasy bust, even though he’s only 25. I couldn’t resist the potential though, and if he breaks out this year I’ll look like a genius. Of course, I’m still not giving him a contract, because I have to assign them before the season starts. Hey, I’m not that big of a risk taker!

SP – Jered Weaver – Having two starters on the same team is a good idea in H2H because it can give you a chance to have two 2-start guys in back-to-back weeks. I like Weaver’s skills, and he’s a decent strikeout pitcher. His consistency and ability to avoid bad starts was better than the league average.

SP – Kevin Slowey – A diamond in the rough. He’s had elite control in 2008, but he’s ignored because he pitches for Minnesota. His strikeouts aren’t fantastic, but they’re good enough, and his ability to give me a very strong ERA and WHIP is valuable in H2H.

SP – Javier Vazquez – Here’s the strikeout pitcher. He’s a lock for 200 K, but no one knows whether his ERA will be above or under 4.00. I’m betting on a better ERA and WHIP than 2008, now that he’s moved to the NL again. Even if he’s not perfect, I have guys like Halladay and Slowey to offset him.

RP –Heath Bell – As much as I hate drafting closers, we were down to about seven left. I need to grab two to remain competitive, and if I can pick up a third one after the draft, I will.

RP – Mike Gonzalez – Again, just filling my saves requirements. I’ll have Rafael Soriano on my watch list, but Gonzalez's talent is unquestionable.

RP – Joel Hanrahan – The nice thing about Hanrahan is that he's a strikeout guy as well. That certainly doesn't hurt my weekly stats. I'm happy with these three, considering how late I was able to grab them.

SS – Elvis Andrus – We are required to take one rookie contract each year, and it'll last for two seasons. I figure if Texas is making Michael Young move to third before the season even starts, it means that Andrus will get a legitimate shot at starting SS, which means he'll get AB. That's the biggest issue with rookie contracts: our bench isn't extremely deep, so it's hard to grab someone you have to stash on your bench for two thirds of the year.

San Dimas Padres Reviews the First 10 Rounds

noreply@blogger.com (Troy Patterson) — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 14:44:00 +0000

Matt for San Dimas Padres team has given us his best and worst picks from the first ten rounds of the draft.

OK guys, make sure to keep this around and bash me come Septmeber!! I’m going to try some analysis here for our draft this past Sunday. We’ll look at the best pick and worst pick of the early rounds. As time permits later this week I will recap the draft pick by pick from my perspective.

Round 1:

Best: Chase Utley (Arod 4MVP) Tough to call any pick the “best” in the first round. I’ll go with Utley because it looks more and more like he’ll be ready for opening day, and a full year from Utley makes him top-5 material.

Worst: None. Sorry for the copout here, but no pick in the 1st round can really be bashed unless something crazy happens.

Round 2:

Best: Matt Holliday (San Dimas Padres) As recently as a month ago Holliday’s ADP was solidly in the 1st round. Now he is slipping as far as late 2nd. I believe he is still 1st round material, despite the move from Coors. There are plenty popular knocks on Holliday. While the ballpark will depress his numbers some, I don’t think the lineup in Oakland is as bad as some may have thought, and contrary to popular opinion, Billy Beane teams will steal bases when they have the players to do so.

Worst: Brandon Phillips (Jerzy Jerks) While filling a thin position with a 20-20 guy is often a good move, Phillips’ 2007 monster season is looking like the outlier season of his career. This pick hurt more when Dustin Pedroia didn’t get taken for another 9 picks, meaning that him or Phillips could’ve been had with the Jerk’s next pick.

Round 3:

Best: Justin Morneau (Roto Rooter) Morneau is consistently a top RBI guy and is still just entering his prime. ADP according to mockdraftcentral.com is late 2nd.

Worst: Matt Kemp (The Savants) While I am personally a fan of Kemp, I think the hype might be getting people too excited. If he shows just a little improvement over his first full season in the big’s he can be a 20-40 guy, however I can’t yet make a case for him over some proven commodities that went later (Manny anyone) just yet.

Round 4:

Best: C.C. Sabathia (Arod 4MVP) After a good base of hitters in the first 3 rounds, if Arod 4MVP wanted to land a top pitcher this was the pick. After C.C. the big arms were all taken before the draft snaked back.

Worst: Victor Martinez (BRIWLEY) Only one catcher was gone at this point, and even if more had gone, V-Mart is entirely too risky to use a 4th round pick on.

Round 5:

Best: Cole Hamels (San Dimas Padres) Cole was the last SP in a top tier run that saw 6 taken in a span of 20 picks. While no pitcher is risk-free, Cole doesn’t fit into any of the workload theories as he safely has increased his IP for three years. He is still just 25.

Worst: Adam Dunn (BRIWLEY) Dunn completed an absolutely awful turn of V-Mart and Dunn for BRIWLEY. Dunn is in a worse ballpark, with a worse lineup, and 15 spots higher than his ADP is a stretch to say the least.

Round 6:

Best: Geovany Soto (Arod 4MVP) Getting the last of the top tier catchers almost a full round after his ADP in a two catcher league is always good. Seeing V-Mart go 13 picks earlier makes this pick even better.

Worst: Magglio Ordonez (JMB) Magglio isn’t what he used to be. While he will still contribute some in two categories, he may no longer excel in any, and I would prefer any one of the next four OF’s that were taken to the declining former All-Star.

Round 7:

Best: Jonathan Papelbon (Roto Rooter) The best closer out there, more than three rounds later than usual. This pick will return great value barring any injury.

Worst: Ervin Santana (Jerzy Jerks) One of the first of the “next” tier of SP to be taken, and similar pitchers such as King Felix, Shields, Cliff Lee, Kazmir and Lester were all still available more than a round later. While still young enough to improve, his career ERA is 4.42 and both his K/9 and K/BB rates took exceptional jumps from his professional track record in 2008. I need to see more before justifying him here.

Round 8:

Best: Jhonny Peralta (BRIWLEY) To get an understanding of the value of the Peralta pick, look for the next SS taken…Mike Aviles, (ugh) over 4.5 rounds later. It was getting thin quick and BRIWLEY jumped on the opportunity to get the last worthy SS.

Worst: Carlos Pena (San Dimas Padres) Yes 1B was getting thin, but filling SS was more important at this point. Miscalculating that Jeter, Young, or Peralta would make it back and taking a limited upside, average killer, was a huge mistake.

Round 9:

Best: Scott Kazmir (More Juice Please) It wasn’t too long ago that Kaz was the best left handed pitching prospect of my lifetime. Because he was a little slow to come around the novelty slowly wore off. But the former Met prospect has solidified himself as a legitimate fantasy ace, IF (notice the big) healthy. Two seasons ago he gave you 239 K’s in 206 IP. Not taking a pitcher until the end of Rd 9, and then getting that potential, is the stuff that can win championships.

Worst: Johnny Damon (BRWLEY) If you need an OF with speed and pop why not go with the 25 year old OF that was drafted with the very next pick and who could get better across the board, rather than the 35 year old getting worse??

Round 10:

Best: Jayson Werth (nine men in) Werth could easily go .275/20/90/90/20 with a full time spot in the Philly line-up in ’09. Though I am usually skeptical of players that break out at the age of 29, last year was the first year Werth had a chance to compile 400+ ab’s. I expect big things with a full time gig in that offense.

Worst: Pablo Sandoval (bluesbrothers) I know that catcher eligibility helps. I know that he has the plate discipline to keep up his impressive average from last year while producing some pop. And I know that in a tough draft you can’t wait on guys you want and hope they fall to you…I just don’t know how you draft a guy that is going in rounds 20+ at pick 10.6? Probably the worst pick of the draft.

2009 RotoSavants 5x5 Roto League Roster

noreply@blogger.com (Troy Patterson) — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 13:02:00 +0000

Here is the results for my team in the first RotoSavants 5x5 Roto League. I heavy with speed in the first few rounds and breaking from my usual strategy I took two pitchers back to back in 4 and 5. I was planning on Chipper in 5, so when he was picked earlier I didn't like the remaining hitters valued there.

My outfield is stacked and I got Reynolds to help balance my power to speed. I also got some great pitchers, but I will need to work on stealing a closer at some point this season. I also have to have a backup plan in case Salty doesn't start right away this season or splits ABs.

I have an abundance of 3B with Zimmerman, Reynolds and Kouzmanoff, but need to find some bench help at 1B.

I usually find my team to have more power, but I like this squad and think steals are a sure thing for me if healthy. I would like to know everyones thoughts on my team and later this week we will look at the other teams.

2009 Roto Savants 5x5 League

noreply@blogger.com (Troy Patterson) — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 12:00:00 +0000

The first Roto Savants 5x5 league is now filled and ready to go. The draft will be March 1st at 9:30PM and will be reported here on the league page. Good luck to everyone and I look forward to our first winner.

Keep an eye out as we may decide to run other leagues this year, but have not made that decision yet.

Welcome to League News

noreply@blogger.com (Troy Patterson) — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 04:07:00 +0000

We are just getting this page going, but the goal here will be a place to share all league news.

First the writers of Roto Savants will update all of the interesting news in our expert leagues

Second any readers who would like to submit interesting, funny or enlightening stories from their leagues.

We will give more information as the season arrives, but please keep us in mind for any interesting stories you would like to post on the blog.

This won't be for advice necessarily, but writers and readers will be welcome to comment on the story.

I look forward to some great interaction this year and hope everyone has a chance to enjoy.

Logic FTW