Royally Speaking

How Many Runs Would A Lineup Full Of Situational Hitters Score Per Game?

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 02:49:00 +0000

After reading an article that begged to be mocked and made fun of, I decided I'm not going to do any of that, mainly because I suspect that was the writer's intent. Instead I thought I would test his belief on how vital situational hitters are to a lineup, because they are above the silly overrated things like getting on base and hitting for power. This is an exercise in pointlessness I realize but I'm doing it just to satisfy my own morbid curiosity.

The first thing I needed to decide was which situational hitter's stats to use, but lucky for me Kansas City just so happens to have one of the game's most valuable players at hitting ground balls, Chris Getz. For the purposes of this exercise I'm going to ignore that he lost his job to a rookie last year.

Using Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis tool I punched in Getz's on-base percentage (.309) and slugging percentage (.283) since joining the Royals. Are you ready for the magic?

2.979 runs per game. 483 runs per year.

To put it in a perspective we can all relate to, the Royals scored 700+ runs all four seasons in which they have lost 100 games or more.

When a player's entire skill set is situational hitting then that player is merely a placeholder until a better player comes along. So let's not act like they're just as important as the guys who are actually producing, okay?

Single Season Home Run Leaders Since 2004

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 00:57:00 +0000

The general consensus is that either Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas will eventually break Steve Balboni's franchise record of 36 home runs. Forget 37, I'd like to see somebody hit 25. Since 2004 there have been 392 25+ home run seasons across baseball but not a single one of those have been achieved by a Royal. Carlos Beltran is the last Royal to hit the mark when he belted 26 in 2003. Since Beltran left, in a trade that would one day bring Chris Getz into our lives, home runs have been a too rare occurrence.

Rk	Player	HR	Year
1	Alex Gordon	23	2011
2	Miguel Olivo	23	2009
3	Mike Sweeney	22	2004
4	Billy Butler	21	2009
5	Mike Sweeney	21	2005
6	Jeff Francoeur	20	2011
7	Jose Guillen	20	2008
8	Billy Butler	19	2011
9	Eric Hosmer	19	2011
10	Mike Jacobs	19	2009

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

This unimpressive list's saving grace is that four of the seasons were produced last year. Toss in Moustakas and a person could probably make the argument that five players could hit 25+ this year. I think at least three will - Hosmer, Gordon and Butler. Yes, Butler. For what it's worth ZiPS doesn't project any of the Royals to hit 25.

Prince Fielder Is A Tiger

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 01:13:00 +0000

"Justin Verlander might win 20 games with the staggering run support he is likely to receive, because there are days when he may allow six runs in five innings and still win by a touchdown; the Tigers may be the latest team to take a run at scoring 1,000 runs." - Buster Olney

While those words may be true today they were actually written before the 2008 season. Following the off season acquisition of Miguel Cabrera the Tigers were widely predicted to score 1000 runs and easily win the division. That didn't happen. While the offense was, in fact, very good - finished in the top 5 in most categories - they didn't score a 1000 runs, or 900, or even 825. Behind a dreadful pitching staff they limped to a 74-88 record, good for last place in the AL Central. The point is, things don't always go as planned, no matter who a team acquires.

Fast forward to today. The Tigers signed Prince Fielder and the hype that surrounded the 2008 Tigers is alive and well four years later. Detroit will be good this year but I don't know that Fielder will turn them into a 100 win team. I don't think they'll fall apart like they did in 2008 (Justin Verlander won't be as bad as he was that year but I'm equally sure he won't be as dominant as he was in 2011) but I also don't see them running away with the division.

I think the Royals still match up well with the Tigers. Sure they went 7-11 against Detroit last year but KC actually outscored them 83-72 in those 18 games.

Rk	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt
1	2011-09-21	KCR	DET	L 3-6
2	2011-09-20	KCR	DET	W 10-2
3	2011-09-01	KCR	DET	W 11-8
4	2011-08-31	KCR	DET	L 4-5
5	2011-08-30	KCR	DET	L 1-2
6	2011-08-29	KCR	DET	W 9-5
7	2011-08-07	KCR	DET	W 4-3
8	2011-08-06	KCR	DET	L 3-4
9	2011-08-05	KCR	DET	L 3-4
10	2011-07-10	KCR	DET	L 1-2
11	2011-07-09	KCR	DET	W 13-6
12	2011-07-08	KCR	DET	L 4-6
13	2011-07-07	KCR	DET	L 1-3
14	2011-05-14	KCR	DET	L 0-3
15	2011-05-13	KCR	DET	L 1-3
16	2011-04-10	KCR	DET	W 9-5
17	2011-04-09	KCR	DET	W 3-1
18	2011-04-08	KCR	DET	L 2-5

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

All 11 losses were by 3 runs or less, meaning the Royals were in every single game against Detroit last year. I expect more of the same this season for a few reasons, which I'll spell out.

KC will get full seasons out of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez. While the Tigers have a decent starting rotation, they're not exactly the Phillies. KC scored 2 runs or fewer in six of the games versus Detroit last year, but five of those games came before August, when KC started trotting out their likely 2012 lineup.
Jonathan Sanchez, Bruce Chen, Danny Duffy, Everett Teaford and Jose Mijares. Fielder has hit a pedestrian .257/.340/.458 against left handed pitching in his career. Decent numbers for sure, but a far cry from what he has accomplished versus righties (.294/.411/.577).
Detroit's defense should be, um, interesting. Cabrera is allegedly moving to third base where Brooks Robinson he ain't. Fielder's not winning any gold gloves either (well he might I guess, if he hits enough home runs. He's not a good defender is what I'm saying).

Bottom line is this, I think Detroit will win the division but I don't believe they'll stomp all over the Royals in the process.

Innings, Innings, Innings

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 05:20:00 +0000

“We’re kind of set with what we have. We’re not a finished product by any means, but we’re staying focused on keeping our core group of players together. Our next step needs to be getting some of our young starting pitching to the major leagues.” - Dayton Moore

With Mission 2012 upon us, and contention seemingly looming, DM is apparently content with the current roster. In other words, Edwin Jackson isn't walking through that door. That's not necessarily a bad thing, because while their window may be cracked at the moment, it should be wide open next year. I don't know that Jackson or Roy Oswalt is enough of a difference maker to push KC over the hump and into the playoffs.

Not that they wouldn't be good pickups, it's just that the rest of the rotation is still full of question marks. For the Royals to be competitive the starting pitchers simply have to pitch more innings. Of course that's a no brainer but the facts speak for themselves. The fourteen teams that finished .500 or above had 33 pitchers toss 190+ innings, 2.35 per team. The sixteen teams that finished under .500 had just 24, 1.5 per team. You have to figure that two or three members of the Royals rotation have to exceed that amount this year, which could happen but seems unlikely when you consider that Hochevar, Sanchez, Chen, Paulino and Duffy have combined for just three such seasons in their careers.

I'd rather they see what those guys do this year and then adjust accordingly next winter when they can maybe land someone better than Jackson (Zack Greinke anyone? What?). Best case scenario is that Duffy and Montgomery make the leap to the front of the rotation while Hochevar and Paulino contribute as league average innings eaters. And then, of course, Chen continues to be Chen, because he's here for 2013 as well (for some reason).

When last season ended I was hoping DM would sign Jackson or trade for James Shields but now I've come around to the wisdom of waiting. I think the current rotation has just enough upside to surprise people and keep the team in the hunt into August or hopefully even September. But they also have enough downside to bury the team in May and finish with a record similar to last year. It really could go either way.

Been There, Done That

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 01:01:00 +0000

This isn't another Billy Butler post, except it kind of is. I was talking about the Royals with a friend of mine who believes that if KC traded Butler for a starting pitcher, and then traded Mike Montgomery for Mark Trumbo (whatever), they'd run away with the division. Right. You all know how I feel about Butler so, yes, there was laughter involved in my response. Because Butler is better than Trumbo. Unswayed by talk of Butler's consistency and his superior on base percentage he hit me with the money quote: "I'd rather KC acquired a DH who can hit 30 home runs with a low OBP than keep Butler". People with short memories may have forgotten that the Royals tried this once, it didn't work. Remember Mike Jacobs?

Seriously, take a look at Jacobs 2008 season and Trumbo's 2011.

	PA	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Jacobs	519	67	118	27	32	93	36	119	.247	.299	.514	108
Trumbo	573	65	137	31	29	87	25	120	.254	.291	.477	113

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Jacobs had a horrible 2009 season as his OBP stayed below .300 (.297) and his power all but disappeared (.401 SLG%). The acquisition sort of made sense but many predicted it would end in disaster and, of course, it ultimately did. When players like Jacobs struggle power-wise they have no fallback skill that adds value to a lineup. Remember kids, OBP is king for a reason.

I don't know how Trumbo will do this year, I suspect not as well as last season, but I do know what kind of production Butler will provide. And it's pretty damn nice.

Royals Caravan - St. Joseph

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 00:43:00 +0000

The Royals comeback tour rolled into St. Joseph yesterday with Billy Butler, Greg Holland, Danny Duffy and John Mayberry ready to sign for a large and enthusiastic crowd. For reasons that are entirely my own I'd never attended the caravan stop in St. Joseph before. It was pretty much what I expected. What it wasn't, though, was fanfest. I did spend a few minutes talking with Ben Aken - the Royals Sr. Director of Community Relations - about the decision to cancel the event. His facial reaction when I broached the subject suggested I was probably the one millionth person to ask him why. He didn't really say anything that I hadn't heard before, and didn't at all convince me the All-Star game event is a worthy substitute, but he at least was nice enough to try.

Here are a few tidbits from the caravan and some of the pictures I took (the rest of the pics can be viewed here).

Danny Duffy is the most polite person in the history of mankind. Seriously. Kudos to his parents for the job they did in raising him.

John Mayberry's eyes lit up twice. The first time when he saw Hy-Vee's Chinese food section upon arrival and the second when he was handed a bat to sign. He gripped the bat with both hands and uttered "that's what I'm talking about".

At no point in the hour plus did Billy Butler hit a home run. Not a single one. Trade him.

This is why they do it.

Friday Linkage

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 02:34:00 +0000

Here is your required reading for the weekend. Enjoy.

Baseball Think Factory - 2012 ZiPS projections - Kansas City Royals
"There's still a lot more offseason left, but as of now, the good news is that there really aren't any horrible ingredients, with the single, notable exception of Yuniesky Betancourt, a player with little redeemable purpose and will get $2 million. $2 million isn't much in the big picture, but there are a lot of better ways to spend $2 million. You could drop $2 million in hundred-dollar bills over the sky in San Pedro de Macoris (each $100 with a Royals sticker affixed to it) and get a better return on investment than Yuni."

The Jeff Report - Mission 2012: How Do the Royals Pitchers Stack Up?

"Matter of fact, of the top 3 projected starters for 2012 (that I mentioned above), Paulino’s 2011 stats are the closest to a #1 starter, and they’re not even near to that level. It’s no surprise that the Royals don’t have an ACE that can match up to those stats, but needs to be said all the same. Now, let’s put it out there how our projected 1-3 starters matchup to the average 1-3 starters from playoff teams last year."

Royal Heritage - 80-82: Some Early 2012 Projections

"I've entered in my current guesses for the 2012 Royals (subject to change, but informed by past performance, Bill James projections, fan projections on Fangraphs, and my gut), and the magic spreadsheet says 80-82. As you can see, I'm not bullish on the pitching. Many of the hurlers have potential to put together better years than I've entered, but their track records don't inspire confidence."

I-70 Baseball - To Trade Butler Or Not To Trade Butler

"Some of the biggest complaints with Butler are that he is essentially only a designated hitter and a poor base runner which really hurts his overall value in terms of sabermetrics. Another minus for Billy is that this is as a DH/1B, he really is not that special of a player. He is essential a 2.0-2.5 WAR player and when you have no positional value you have to be a very good hitter to make an impact, and thus far, Butler has not hit at that level."

Royals Review - Looking Back at the 2010 Draft, Again

"When I checked in on the 2010 draftees last summer, the word I used to characterize the haul was "strange." Now that we have a full year of data to look at (still not very much, as these things go) what picture emerges?"

Royals Authority - 40 Man Roster Review – Aaron Crow

"What we do know about Aaron Crow is that he was an exciting and dominant setup man from April through July for the Royals. For the season, he struck out more than one batter per inning, gave up less than one hit per inning, walked a few too many (4.50 batters/9) and uncorked 9 wild pitches."

Kings of Kauffman - Projecting Alex Gordon's Extension

"Gordon is unique in that he’s a former top prospect and yet he’s a year behind where he’d expect to be when looking at service time. Hip surgery in 2009 and trips back and forth from Omaha have him under team control until after 2013. Right now, it’s a question of whether 2011 was a fluke or if it’s Gordon finally realizing his potential while in an environment where he doesn’t have to be the savior and where he’s healthy, or if it’s a career year and he’ll regress to being just above average (or worse)."

Couple Thoughts On The Chen Extension

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 02:12:00 +0000

After the success of controversial signings Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur it's hard to blame Dayton Moore for thinking he has the midas touch. It wouldn't surprise me if he's spent the offseason hanging out at top notch casinos or the best sports betting sites. Moore extended his Kenny Rogers ways onto the 2012 and 2013 teams gambling that Francoeur's 2011 season was legit, and that Bruce Chen's performance the next two seasons will help the team compete, as well as trump whatever draft pick they would've received if Chen had rejected arbitration and signed elsewhere.

The Francoeur extension was predictable and I really didn't have a problem with it, I mean somebody has to play right field and Wil Myers clearly isn't ready. Chen, on the other hand, caught me off guard and was more than a little perplexing. It's apparently widely accepted that Chen has been the Royals best starter the last two seasons but I don't know how accurate that is. I suspect that leading the team in wins both years has been the catalyst for the myth but a quick stat comparison shows that Greinke was better in 2010.

	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	BB	SO	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
Zack Greinke	10	14	4.17	33	220.0	55	181	100	1.245	9.0	2.3	7.4	3.29
Bruce Chen*	12	7	4.17	23	140.1	57	98	101	1.375	8.7	3.7	6.3	1.72

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

The 80 inning gap is not insignificant, nor is the difference in WHIP, BB/9, SO/BB and SO/9. Last season Chen did lead the team in ERA+ (108) but he was third in innings pitched, second in WHIP, fourth in SO/BB and fifth in SO/9. So, yeah, he may have been the top starter but he wasn't overwhelmingly so. In fact, I'm not convinced Everett Teaford can't be every bit as effective as Chen in 2012, he'd be considerably cheaper too. So while I sort of understand why Moore brought him back I just don't think it was necessary. But at least Chen's funny, so there's that.

The Consistently Good Billy Butler

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 17:28:00 +0000

Nothing gets the Royals section of twitter raging like a good old fashion Billy Butler debate. Due to his great second half the "he doesn't hit enough home runs so he should be traded" rallying cry was replaced with "hey, he's hitting home runs so let's trade him for a #1 starter". Whatever. Long time readers here - and followers on twitter - know how I feel about Butler and how I'd freak out if he actually was traded.

I've never been concerned about Butler's power simply because of the amount of doubles he hits (I think the McRae comp is still a good one). I'm also unswayed by the new reasons to purge the roster of his bat - that he's no longer cheap and a full time designated hitter limits roster flexibility. The 8 million he'll make each of the next three seasons is hardly a payroll back breaker and it shouldn't inhibit the team from making long term offers to Hosmer and company. The team option for 12.5 million in 2015 is a bit too pricey but I fully expect they'll buy that out. There is something to the roster flexibility argument, but honestly, I fail to see how inserting a weaker bat into the lineup for the sake of flexibility makes the team better.

However you feel about Butler, one indisputable fact remains, the man can hit a baseball. Still though, I'm not sure fans fully realize how good he's been since the start of the 2009 season. He is just one of seven major leaguers to crack 60+ extra base hits and post an on base percentage of .360 or higher in each of the last three years. I'm not suggesting he's as good as the rest of the players on this list, because he isn't. I'm just pointing out that Butler consistently excels in two areas critical to run production and he wouldn't be easy to replace.

Here is the complete list:

	Yrs	From	To	Age
Joey Votto	3	2009	2011	25-27
Troy Tulowitzki	3	2009	2011	24-26
Albert Pujols	3	2009	2011	29-31
Adrian Gonzalez	3	2009	2011	27-29
Miguel Cabrera	3	2009	2011	26-28
Billy Butler	3	2009	2011	23-25
Ryan Braun	3	2009	2011	25-27

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

If you're unimpressed consider that such a season has only been accomplished by twelve players in Royals history. If you add in a minimum 125 OPS+ to the qualifying stats the number of players is reduced to nine

	Yrs	From	To	Age
George Brett	8	1977	1990	24-37
Billy Butler	3	2009	2011	23-25
Danny Tartabull	3	1987	1991	24-28
Mike Sweeney	2	1999	2001	25-27
Johnny Damon	2	1999	2000	25-26
Hal McRae	2	1977	1982	31-36
Alex Gordon	1	2011	2011	27-27
Carlos Beltran	1	2001	2001	24-24
Jermaine Dye	1	2000	2000	26-26
Joe Randa	1	1999	1999	29-29
Al Cowens	1	1977	1977	25-25
John Mayberry	1	1975	1975	26-26

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

As good as the offense is projected to be there are still a lot of questions.

Can Alex Gordon repeat his 2011 season?
Will Jeff Francoeur regress to his 2008-2010 numbers?
Will Mike Moustakas and Johnny Giavotella hit big league pitching?
Can Lorenzo Cain hit enough to hold down centerfield?

Those answers will be provided during the season, but right now, here's what we do know - Butler will smack around 60 extra base hits and get on base 36% of the time. You know what folks, let's keep him around.

And be happy that he's here.

Royally Speaking's 7 Most Popular Posts of 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Mon, 26 Dec 2011 17:15:00 +0000

When 2011 began I was this close to turning out the lights here. There were several factors involved in that almost-decision but a decided lack of want was at the top of the list. But I chose to keep writing and I'm glad I did as this year was the most fun I've had in this blog's four year run. And it was a good year to be sure, online and offline. I met Denny Matthews at Fanfest, ran into George Brett in the Royals Hall of Fame and, though the reason behind the phone call was sad, had a nice chat with Denny Trease reminiscing about Paul Splittorff.

I also went mainstream during the summer as Ross Martin (you likely know him as @pcbearcat) offered me the opportunity to write a weekly column for the St. Joseph News Press. It was a rewarding experience, though an odd one at the same time, as I never got used to seeing my picture and name in print.

Traffic wise, this was the blog's most successful season. Of course that probably doesn't happen without a significant amount of linkage, so all of you that read something that you felt was worth sharing you have my humble thanks.

Provided Dayton Moore doesn't sign Jose Guillen or Horacio Ramirez this is my last post until January 2012. I thought about doing a year in review type of thing where I highlight various posts in chronological order but instead I decided to do a simple rundown featuring 2011's greatest hits.

Thanks for reading, you guys, and I'll see you next year.

7. Top 20 Prospect Preview

This post was written by Keith Blackburn, a guy who unquestionably knows more about the Royals farm system than I do. Keith ranks the top 20 prospects, suggests where they should begin the season and provides a Kansas City ETA. For more of Keith's thoughts follow him on twitter (seriously, do that!).

First off I would like to thank Jeff for allowing me to post this here. Second I’d like people to know that I’m no expert, I’m just some nerd who relentless follows the Royals minor league system. That being said I’d like to go ahead and thank experts like the guys at Baseball America, Kevin Goldstein, Keith Law, Dave Sanford, Greg Schaum, and all the other guys who really know what they are doing for supplying a lot more of this specific information. All I’m doing here is checking out video, reading stats and scouting reports, seeing as many of these guys as I can, and going with my gut feeling to make this list. So without further ado, here it goes.

Continue reading.....

6. A Conversation With Denny Trease

Back in the 1980's Denny Trease did the play by play on the Royals television broadcast, and he eventually would team with Paul Splittorff to form, in my opinion, an on air duo that has never been matched. Denny's smooth game calling coupled with Splitt's analysis made for the perfect combination. I have yet to meet anybody who didn't believe that the Denny/Splitt wasn't among the best in the business.

After Splitt passed away Wednesday I talked to Denny on the phone about his friend and former co-worker. The circumstances were certainly somber, but I had always wanted to speak with him, so before our trip down memory lane, I took the opportunity to tell him how much I enjoyed and miss his work in the booth.

"I do miss it myself," he said, "there were just some great memories. My timing was perfect, I started the same year they won the pennant for the first time."

Continue reading.....

5. 200

I missed most of the controversy that surrounded Melky Cabrera's pursuit of a 200 hit season, which is for the best I suppose, because it seems a weird thing to be upset about. I get that the difference between 197 and 200 hits in terms of value and production is nonexistent but this was about history, because in Kansas City 200 hit seasons are rare, even rarer than a 30 home run season as a matter of fact. At most it probably should have been a non-issue, I mean would a few extra plate appearances for Lorenzo Cain tell us anything we don't already know? Probably not. So no, I didn't see any reason why Cabrera shouldn't have been given the opportunity to add his name to the 200 hit club.

Cabrera became the just the sixth Royal to achieve the feat and the first since 2000. Here are the too few members of the Royals 200 hit club.

Continue reading.....

4. Thoughts On Navarro, Shields And Gonzalez

The winter meetings have ended, and outside of some rumors, it was a rather uneventful few days for the Royals. I was wrong on two counts in my last post as DM failed to land a utility infielder and then traded Yamaico Navarro, showing they weren't as high on him as I previously thought. Of course I only thought that because of this Bob Dutton article on August 5th:

The decision by the Royals to clear space Friday for second baseman Johnny Giavotella by optioning just-acquired Yamaico Navarro to Class AAA Omaha stems from a belief that Navarro can be more than a utility player.

“He needs to play,” manager Ned Yost said. “It’s hard to evaluate where we are with him. We like what we see, but unless he plays every day, you don’t know what he needs to continue to work on – what his strengths are, what his weaknesses are."

I'm not sure what a month in Omaha told the Royals about Navarro but if you follow the right people on twitter you are no doubt aware that questions exist about his makeup and clubhouse presence. These concerns were apparently legitimate enough that they trumped Navarro's potential usefulness as a utility infielder. That role will now likely go to a veteran in his mid-30's, which given how young the infield is, may actually be a good idea. I'll qualify that opinion with this, as long as they don't overpay. Of course in hindsight the Royals could've kept Mike Aviles and avoided all of this.

Continue reading.....

3. Best Royals Infields

I was writing my weekly column for the St. Joseph News Press when I realized that due to a lack of real estate I was running the risk of not properly explaining my point. After all, I'm pretty certain the sports editor wouldn't have appreciated an article that tripled my allotted word count and came with all sorts of charts (though I would have liked to seen his reaction had I gone that route). So after first editing the article and changing it from a mess to a readable mess I then decided to expand on it here.

As you are no doubt excitedly aware, the infield of the future is the infield of the present, and their upside got me thinking about infields of the past. So I posed this question on twitter - the current Royals infield has the highest upside since.....? I received feedback that ranged from the great infields of the 70's to a few in the 80's to some in the 90's. Of course any answer that included David Howard was obviously snark laden, at least I hope so.

Continue reading.....

2. Rotation Thoughts

It's possible that the Royals 2012 contention hopes rest on one tiny word, if. As in they'll contend if Dayton Moore can find a quality SP this winter, if Luke Hochevar's second half really was a taste of things to come, if Felipe Paulino can avoid regressing to his pre-Royals numbers, and finally, if Danny Duffy can take a John Danks-like step his sophomore year.

Of course not all of the above mentioned ifs need to occur for the Royals to play meaningful baseball in September but I would argue that probably three of them do. I'll tackle them one at a time.

The offseason acquistion

Many rumors and suggestions have floated around about who Moore should target to front the 2012 rotation. There are only a handful pitchers in baseball who can be considered true aces and Moore is not going to get one. But there are many above average guys who would slot nicely into the #1 spot in Kansas City, the three I like most are James Shields, Chad Billingsley and Edwin Jackson.

Continue reading.....

1. Some Billy Butler Comps You Will Like And Some You Won't

I was at Royals fanfest when I first heard the news that KC had signed Billy Butler to a four year/30 million dollar contract (with a fifth year club option for 12.5) and it made an enjoyable day even more so. It's a very club friendly deal and when it ends he'll still be young enough for another healthy payday. A great deal all around. It got me to thinking though, I'm curious what kind of hitter Butler will be for the next five years so I compared his career OPS+ to players from the last sixty years.

Specifically I was looking for guys whose OPS+ was close to Butler's 118 for their age 21-24 seasons and then checked to see how they did from 25 to 29. Qualifying players had an OPS+ between 115 and 120 and a minimum of 2000 plate appearances, 2000 because I wanted guys who played all of the four seasons. I took position and skill-set out of the equation and just focused on one singular stat. It's meaningless of course and certainly unscientific but I found the results rather interesting nonetheless. I came up with eleven players of all shapes and sizes, including one Hall of Famer.

Carlos Baerga
21-24 116
25-29 92
25 - 118
26 - 108
27 - 72
28 - 87
28- 76

Baerga's decline was surprising but he walked in only 4.9% of his plate appearances so I guess it shouldn't have been.

Continue reading.....

Carlos Beltran Is A Cardinal

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 16:59:00 +0000

My three favorite players of all time, unsurprisingly, are all Royals. In order they are Freddie Patek, George Brett and Carlos Beltran. I'm facing a dilemma here as Beltran signing with my least favorite team has unleashed a storm of emotions that I'm not adequately prepared to deal with. It's not in my DNA to cheer for the Cardinals (though it's in my dad's, weird), but I want Beltran to do well, but if he does well that'll help the Cardinals win, so I'm conflicted. But I'll deal with that mental mess in April.

Beltran's contract does come with some risk but it's an absolute steal if he stays healthy. I made the comment on twitter that I'd rather have him for the 2/26 deal he signed than Jeff Francoeur for 2/13. Now of course such a statement called for feedback and I received plenty. The majority of comments were pro-Francoeur, which I suspected would be the case, he had a really good season and is pretty much an extremely likable guy.

The consensus on Beltran on the other hand was that because he's older he's past his prime. And he may be but you certainly wouldn't know it from his production. Since turning 30 he's posted a 133 OPS+, which is far better than the 115 he posted in his 20's. Last season his 152 OPS+ was a career high, at age 34. Let me repeat that, and put in bold to make it more noticeable.

Last season his 152 OPS+ was a career high, at age 34.

For whatever reason his 2011 season flew way under the radar and I think people just naturally assumed Francoeur was better without comparing their respective seasons. Since the majority of what I do here is compare, allow me to shock and awe you.

Player	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	rWAR
Francoeur	656	77	171	47	4	20	87	22	10	37	123	.285	.329	.476	119	2.7
Beltran	598	78	156	39	6	22	84	4	2	71	88	.300	.385	.525	152	4.4

Of course that doesn't mean that Beltran will repeat his 2011 performance the next two seasons but I'd wager the naming rights to my next child that he'll outperform Francoeur in OPS+ and WAR, and by a significant margin. Outside of his injury filled sophomore season the lowest OPS+ Beltran has posted was 96, in 2005. Care to guess what Francoeur's career OPS+ is? Yep, you guessed it, 96.

I didn't have a problem with Francoeur's extension when it was signed, well other than I wished it was for one year instead of two. But there's no doubt he's a question mark heading into 2012 as he's given absolutely no reason in his career to believe he's capable of replicating his 2011 numbers. I hope he does, so don't think I'm rooting against him. I mean it's not an insult to suggest Beltran is better, especially when the stats back it up.

Jose Mijares Signed

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 22:33:00 +0000

KC signed Jose Mijares today to fill a role that Tim Collins couldn't, the infamous LOOGY. Left handed batters hit only .210 against Collins in 2011 but his inability to consistently throw strikes led them to post a .378 on-base percentage. Against Mijares in his career though, they've only managed a Yuni-like .276 OBP.

I	Split	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	BAbip
	vs RHB as LHP	367	42	85	19	0	10	41	53	1.29	.268	.353	.423	.291
	vs LHB as LHP	287	38	55	14	1	5	21	65	3.10	.212	.276	.331	.260

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

If Mijares can regain his 2009/2010 form (161 ERA+) this is a good signing by Moore.

Look At All Those Bloggers Playing GM

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 15:34:00 +0000

Unsurprisingly the Yuni signing wasn't met with high praise across the Royals and non-Royals blogosphere, Lee Judge no doubt weeps for our souls. (My thoughts can be found here.)

I-70 Baseball - Yuni? That’sYourAnswer? You Must Be Joking!

Royals Review -Yuniesky Betancourt and Bad Dayton Moore Make Their Return
Royals Authority - Anatomy Of A Free Agent Signing – A One Act Play

Royalscentricity - Yuniesky Betancourt: Futility Infielder
Kings of Kauffman - Royals Sign Yuniesky Betancourt

Royal Revival - Yunasty Returns to KC
Pine Tar Press - Welcome back, Yuni-bomber
Joe Blogs - Christmastime Is Here

Jeff Sullivan - Yuniesky Betancourt And The Nearly Inconceivable

Hardball Talk - Yuniesky Betancourt and the Royals, together again

The Yunicorn Returns

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 14:17:00 +0000

“Yuni is somebody that we had targeted...” - Dayton Moore

Touché Mr, Moore, tou-freaking-ché. Had I known that DM would take it as a challenge I never would have suggested on Monday that the signing of a utility infielder would neither shock the world or trend on twitter. I was wrong on both counts. This move is so nonsensical I kept waiting for Ashton Kutcher to pop up on twitter telling Royals fans they'd been punk'd. But it didn't happen and Yuniesky Betancourt will in fact be on the team next season.

A few fans and members of the media are defending the signing because they believe Yuni won't play that much. I mean if that's how you defend a dubious move then I'd suggest it's not a move worth defending. Besides weren't we told the same thing when Willie Bloomquist was signed? Except Spork in his first year in KC amassed a career high 468 plate appearances, despite a 77 OPS+. So forgive me if I refuse to believe that Yuni won't play that much. An injury to Escobar or Moustakas and he's playing everyday. You can't honestly predict that won't happen.

I assumed that in the search for a utility infielder that Moore would've focused on those players who have played multiple infield positions. A false assumption on my part, it appears, because Yuni has spent 99% of his career big league innings at shortstop. He has never played third base (not even in the minors) and last played second base his rookie year (2005). Now if he was a plus defender at short then I'd suppose he'd be okay but he's not, he's a statue and I can't really believe they think he can handle second base. For that reason it wouldn't surprise me to see Chris Getz make the team next year and then we'll get to hear Yost and Moore go on and on about the infield's sudden versatility. The conspiracy theorist in me wonders if a more versatile infielder wasn't signed because it'd make Getz redundant. We couldn't have that happening now, could we?

I'm also confused on how Yuni received anything other than a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. If he was brought in partly as insurance in case anything happened to Escobar then why not let him play shortstop for Omaha? Oh yeah, I forgot, there were four or five other teams (allegedly) looking for a utility infielder who is well below average defensively and offensively. Ha, sucks to be them right now.

Moore has always had a strange affinity for Yuni, I mean he did once try to trade Billy Butler for him so I guess it shouldn't come as a surprise that he was the guy targeted when the search for a utility infielder began. Those of us who thought Moore learned his lesson and had seen the light were sadly mistaken.

This has been a strange offseason for the Royals. When the season ended fans couldn't wait for 2012 to get here because it appeared (and still does despite this move) that the team was on the cusp of contention. A few right moves and next year could be special. The amount of goodwill flowing between the fans and the organization hadn't been seen in such large quantities since the late 80's/early 90's. Fast forward to December and the mood is decidedly different. Coming on the heels of canceling fanfest and the petty Frank White episode this is the third middle finger the front office has pointed in the fans direction since the season ended. Sure that may be harsh but Yuni was not well liked his first go around here and offers nothing on offense or defense. So yeah, this signing doesn't make a lick of sense.

Now that he's here, though, what can we expect? More of the same most likely. Since 2009 only eight players in all of baseball have come to the plate a 1000 times and posted a lower OPS+. If you want to see something that will give you nightmares then check out his company on that list.

Rk	Player	OPS+	PA
1	Pedro Feliz	67	1054
2	Chris Getz	68	1092
3	Jason Kendall	71	1016
4	Alcides Escobar	72	1284
5	Ivan Rodriguez	73	1006
6	Ronny Cedeno	74	1332
7	Orlando Cabrera	76	1722
8	Edgar Renteria	76	1110
9	Yuniesky Betancourt	77	1680
10	Brendan Ryan	78	1409
11	Willie Bloomquist	79	1048

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Of the eleven, five are current or former Royals, six if you count Feliz who was brought to spring training last year. Dayton Moore definitely has a type.

All Quiet On The Front

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 02:24:00 +0000

It's no secret that Dayton Moore likes to play things close to the vest. I mean just when you think he's doing nothing but sitting around fondly reminiscing about the Willie Bloomquist era, or bragging on how he outmaneuvered twenty-nine other general managers for the services of Brett Tomko, BAM, he trades for Jonathan Sanchez or signs Jonathan Broxton. Other than another Joakim Soria rumor things are quiet, perhaps too quiet.

It just seems like the climate is ripe for a Moore move, whether it's trading for Gio Gonzalez or signing Roy Oswalt. Personally I don't think either of those things will happen but you get my point, Moore could be working on something big.

The Royals still need a utility infielder, which is certainly a less sexy acquisition than a frontline starter, but it's a position that needs to be filled nonetheless. It's just not a shock the world kind of move or one that will find itself trending on twitter. (Follow me!!! I kid, but seriously, follow me.)

With the bulk of the opening day pretty much set there's little Moore can do to improve the 2012 club without compromising the current youth movement. You can make the argument that Johnny Giavotella deserves a chance (and I absolutely believe he does) but fans would understand if Moore acquired a productive second baseman. I think the same can be said for Lorenzo Cain and Danny Duffy.

If Moore is working on something I expect we'll know fairly soon. It seems like the closer a team gets to spring training the guys they acquire tend to be of a risky nature - either players coming off injuries or those trying to prove they're not over the hill. While the Jeff Francis signing made a ton of sense last January a similar signing this month or next would be a lateral move at best.

Obviously Moore's best chance at jumpstarting Mission 2012 and giving the Royals realistic contention hopes would come in the form of a premier starting pitcher. His reluctance to deal prospects (which so far I applaud him for) this winter to get one seem to indicate that move is not going to happen.

But still, it's just so quiet.

Thoughts On Navarro, Shields And Gonzalez

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sat, 10 Dec 2011 05:13:00 +0000

The Navarro trade was allegedly prompted by Moore's desire to clear a spot on the Royals 40 man roster so they could take a player in the Rule 5 draft. And they did, Cesar Cabral, who was then sold to the Yankees minutes later. The Royals netted $50,000 in the deal, which was probably enough to cover the bills the winter meetings accumulated. So at least they have that going for them, which is nice.

While not much happened a few rumors did float around. The Royals were linked to both James Shields and Gio Gonzalez, starting pitchers who would fill a definite need at the top of the rotation. Also in the rumors was Wil Myers, which is almost certainly why neither pitcher is apartment hunting in Kansas City. While I'm sure a sizable segment of the fanbase would've welcomed the trade (win now, win now!!!) I'm not sure either of those deals were necessary at that cost - especially because the Royals may actually have a Shields and a Gonzalez on the roster.

	rWAR	ERA	IP	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
Player A	2.0	3.96	224	100	1.261	9.1	1.2	2.2	7.8	3.45
Player B	1.9	4.11	124.2	100	1.372	8.9	0.7	3.5	8.6	2.48

	rWAR	ERA	IP	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
Player C	5.0	3.12	202	130	1.317	7.8	0.8	4.1	8.8	2.16
Player D	3.6	3.07	193.1	127	1.231	6.6	1.0	4.5	9.5	2.14

Player B you no doubt recognize as Felipe Paulino and Player A is in fact Shields, along with his average numbers the last three seasons. It'd be nice to think that Shields would repeat his 2011 season (132 ERA+) but it's also unlikely. In 2009 and 2010 he had ERA+'s of 105 and 75, so he's not exactly Mr. Consistency. And if you're gonna trade Myers, it'd better be for someone who you know for a fact will perform at a high level. Shields was one of the guys I liked when the season ended but I don't like him enough to give up the rumored asking price of Myers, Soria and Colon. Paulino is still a question mark but undoubtedly one worth finding out the answer to, as in can he replicate or improve upon his 2011 numbers over the course of a full season?

Player C is the aforementioned Gonzalez and his 2011 campaign while Player D is Jonathan Sanchez and the season he put up in 2010 when he was last healthy. Sanchez is a free agent after 2012 while Gonzalez would be on the team until 2015, that's not insignificant, but if you're aiming to sacrifice an important piece of the future to win in 2012 then Sanchez may help achieve that goal just as well as Gonzalez. After Sanchez leaves after the season (or during?) Mike Montgomery is in place to claim that spot in the rotation.

Gonzalez and Shields are fine pitchers but neither are a #1, and if you're dangling Myers, that's what you better receive.

Looking For Backups

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 16:15:00 +0000

As the winter meetings descend upon us Kansas City is in the rare position of their opening day roster almost being set in stone. I say almost because the only question marks are at utility infielder and fourth outfielder. One of those positions - the fourth outfielder - will likely be occupied by Jarrod Dyson or Mitch Maier. Of the two, my preference would be Maier.

Look, Dyson is a fun little toy but if pressed into service for more than the occasional start or pinch running duty his offensive deficiencies would inevitably show. Maier on the other hand could fill in at all three positions holding his own defensively while not embarrassing himself at the plate (I swear I've typed that sentence a hundred times the last few years). The last two seasons he has accumulated 534 plate appearances and put up a not great but not terrible 94 OPS+. I'd wager that he'll garner more than the 113 PAs he had in 2011 as it's unlikely the three starters will all play in 150+ games again. Lorenzo Cain is still a question mark himself so it's not out of the realm of possibility that the fourth OF finds himself a starter at some point in the year if, you know, Cain fails to hit.

So it would seem that Moore's agenda at the meetings include just finding a utility infielder, and maybe to a lesser extent another starting pitcher (though I doubt it). Yamaico Navarro would appear to be a natural fit for the utility job but I think the club still thinks he can potentially be a starter so that's likely what he'll be doing this year, starting for Omaha.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Moore take a run at a veteran in the Bloomquist mold - a defense first player whose offense is only tolerable in small doses. Of course there is a real fear that his grit will be off the charts and, like Bloomquist in 2009, will play entirely way too much. I'm hoping Yost will do the right thing with Giavotella but it wouldn't surprise me to see him Kila'd, meaning demoted after just a month (but that's a post for another day, probably in May).

The Frank White Saga

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 02:20:00 +0000

"The Royals felt like my chair in the booth was too negative toward

the Royals and they wanted to make a change." - Frank White

First off let me be honest here, I was not a fan of White's broadcast work and when news initially broke that he wouldn't back I was okay with it. I thought the majority of the time he sounded awkward and uncomfortable and he just didn't seem to have the right type of voice for that line of work. But that's me. Then he appeared on 610 with Nick Wright to give his side, and needless to say, the reason for his dismissal is quite disappointing. (You can read the transcript here, courtesy of FakeNed.)

The thing is I can't recall White ever being negative, sure he questioned a move or two, but that's what a color analyst does. I thought, if anything, that he seemed too tolerant of Yost's managerial decisions. What I'm saying is, Len Dawson he wasn't.

"I asked for circumstances. What games. What comments," he told Wright. "Who the comment was made to. Um. I asked if, uh, the Royals had brought negative comments to them of something I had said, and I got nothing.".

That's just weak. What most likely happened is that the front office, still upset over the publicity his departure from the ballclub received, is using his negativity to phase him out as the face of the franchise. Paul Splittorff criticized far more often than White and as far as I know nobody ever complained about it. Splitt's former broadcast partner Denny Trease addressed this when I talked to him earlier this year.

"I always admired his nerve, his bravery to say what people always didn't want to hear," said Trease. "He called it the way he saw and I think not everybody would've been able to get away with that. Everybody - coaches, players, fans - had so much respect for Splitt that if he said it, it was ok. They weren't going to hold his feet to the fire, they knew if he was criticizing them, he had reason to criticize."

Remember though that Splitt began his broadcast career under different ownership and a different front office, and shortly after his playing days ended. It was indeed a different time.

Knowing how honesty is potentially rewarded you have to wonder how good a job White's replacement will do. Broadcasters who double as cheerleaders are not among the best in their profession but that's what Jeff Montgomery (or whoever) will have to be.

Trease's closing line was especially relevant:

"Sometimes it's just speaking the truth, and people will not forget it."

Indeed.

Royals Close To Signing Broxton

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 14:40:00 +0000

The Royals are on the verge of signing former Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton, per Ken Rosenthal. Injuries and ineffectiveness limited to Broxton to just 12.2 innings in 2011 but he had minor elbow surgery after the season and no doubt hopes to revert to his 2009 self in hopes of a bigger payday next offseason. That season he had 36 saves and 114 strikeouts in 76 innings (13.5 SO/9!). Anything close to that he will be the natural choice to succeed Joakim Soria if/when he gets dealt. Of course a good year and Broxton himself will likely garner a lot of attention at the trade deadline.

Year	Age	W	L	ERA	G	SV	IP	BB	SO	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	BB/9	SO/9
2005	21	1	0	5.93	14	0	13.2	12	22	71	1.829	8.6	7.9	14.5
2006	22	4	1	2.59	68	3	76.1	33	97	174	1.231	7.2	3.9	11.4
2007	23	4	4	2.85	83	2	82.0	25	99	156	1.146	7.6	2.7	10.9
2008	24	3	5	3.13	70	14	69.0	27	88	134	1.174	7.0	3.5	11.5
2009	25	7	2	2.61	73	36	76.0	29	114	154	0.961	5.2	3.4	13.5
2010	26	5	6	4.04	64	22	62.1	28	73	96	1.476	9.2	4.0	10.5
2011	27	1	2	5.68	14	7	12.2	9	10	67	1.895	10.7	6.4	7.1
7 Seasons		25	20	3.19	386	84	392.0	163	503	132	1.232	7.3	3.7	11.5

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

This is not a bad move in my opinion, though I think I'll add if he's healthy as a qualifier. I thought the opening day bullpen was dang near set in stone but this could be a prelude to another move. Something like this one perhaps.

Chen Again

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Thu, 24 Nov 2011 13:56:00 +0000

There were whispers a couple weeks ago that Dayton Moore was no longer trying to acquire a frontline starting pitcher, whispers with merit apparently as Moore has opted to bring back Bruce Chen instead. The rotation appears set now as Chen joins holdovers Luke Hochevar, Felipe Paulino, Danny Duffy and newcomer Jonathan Sanchez. Meanwhile Aaron Crow, Everett Teaford, Luis Mendoza and Mike Montgomery will get spring training looks though I doubt any of the four will emerge victorious. And if they do it'll likely be at the expense of Duffy, who frankly could use a little more AAA seasoning.

On the surface the Chen signing may look like Royals management don't really believe contention is a possibility, I mean they are returning four starters off a unit that was just not very good, but it's plausible they honestly think the ifs I outlined here can and will occur. I'm not so sure they're wrong. Of course you can add two more ifs to that article as in, if Sanchez can return to his 2010 form and if Chen can remain a league average back of the rotation starter.

I spent a considerable amount of time on twitter last night defending Paulino's spot in the rotation, which surprised me. And this is why:

Highest SO/9 in Royals history (min. 20 GS)

Rk	Player	SO/9	GS	Year
1	Zack Greinke	9.50	33	2009
2	Kevin Appier	8.82	32	1996
3	Bob Johnson	8.66	26	1970
4	Felipe Paulino	8.59	20	2011
5	Kevin Appier	8.42	23	1994
6	Kevin Appier	8.27	31	1995
7	Zack Greinke	8.14	32	2008
8	Tom Gordon	8.06	32	1990
9	Gil Meche	7.83	34	2008
10	Dennis Leonard	7.50	37	1977
11	Kevin Appier	7.49	34	1997
12	Danny Duffy	7.43	20	2011

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/24/2011.

In their history the Royals haven't had many pitchers that missed bats on a regular basis but that's exactly what they have in Paulino. It'd be crazy to send him to the bullpen just because the big league success he achieved in 2011 was the first of his career. Despite Dutton's claim that he'll be fighting for a spot in spring training I think he's a lock, I believe that Moore and Yost are smart enough to recognize what they stumbled upon.

Comps To The End

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 02:54:00 +0000

Life can be a strange thing, death too I suppose. Consider the case of Paul Splittorff, Mike Flanagan and Bob Forsch, three statistically similar pitchers from the same era. They are each others top comps at baseball-reference.com and all three have passed away this year. I honestly don't know how unusual this is, it actually may not be, but I found it interesting nonetheless.

Name	W	L	ERA	IP	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
Splittorff	166	143	3.81	2554.2	101	1.340	9.3	2.7	3.7	1.36
Flanagan	167	143	3.90	2770.0	100	1.334	9.1	2.9	4.8	1.68
Forsch	168	136	3.76	2794.1	98	1.291	8.9	2.7	3.6	1.36

If you missed my interview with former Royals broadcaster Denny Trease you can check that out here. Denny recalls Splitt the pitcher and covers the smooth transition from the mound to the booth. I still believe that Trease/Splitt remain the top TV duo in the team's history.

The Sanchez/Cabrera Trade And How It Affects 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 14:56:00 +0000

In one swift move Dayton Moore improved the rotation and the team's defense. After receiving no suitable offers for Melky Cabrera at the trade deadline Moore sent him to the Giants yesterday in exchange for lefty Jonathan Sanchez. While Sanchez comes with more than a few question marks he'll do much better than anything the unholy trifecta of Sean O'Sullivan/Vin Mazzaro/Luis Mendoza would provide.

Sanchez will be a free agent at the end of next season so it's hard to believe this'll be the sole addition to the rotation. I mean that wouldn't really make much sense unless Moore thought he could extend Sanchez or flip him at the deadline. What I suspect is happening is that front office believes the Central is up for grabs and wants to go for it but without mortgaging too much of the future.

Now Sanchez alone doesn't vault the Royals into contention so I think that a trade for another starting pitcher - one with a well established track record - is still a viable possibility. I'm speaking of course of the move we've all been expecting, the one where Moore parts with Wil Myers or Mike Montgomery. Acquiring Sanchez doesn't mean the search for an ace is over.

Cabrera being dealt opens up centerfield for Lorenzo Cain, a player with plus defense and plus speed. Cain has significantly more range than Cabrera so his addition to the lineup will help all the pitchers. I mentioned on twitter shortly after the trade was announced that I hope Yost leaves Alex Gordon in the leadoff spot as his insertion there was one of Yost's best moves. I even went so far as to predict the opening day lineup, which I'll share here too:

Gordon
Giavotella
Butler
Hosmer
Francoeur
Moustakas
Cain
Perez
Escobar

That's a pretty solid starting nine I think which leads me to believe that the offense will be just fine, even without Cabrera's bat. And let's be honest, he was unlikely to replicate his his 121 OPS+. Cain's bat is still a work in progress but it doesn't take a leap of imagination to suggest he's capable of being league average. Couple that with above average defense and he has the potential to be a valuable player for Kansas City.

Gio

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 15:15:00 +0000

Johnny Giavotella's late season look was underwhelming to be sure but playing with a torn labrum may partially explain his troubles. I've seen mentioned on forums and twitter that Gio isn't the answer at second base, which frankly surprises me given his minor league resume. He's not the first player to mash AAA pitching and then struggle in his first crack at the majors, it happens all the time. The fact is, hurt or healthy, 187 plate appearances is not enough of a sample size to tell us anything.

To prove my point here are how a couple of other 23 year olds performed their rookie season, and how they performed the year after.

Peter Bourjos

Year	Age	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2010	23	193	.204	.237	.381	69
2011	24	552	.271	.327	.438	115

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Bret Barberie

Year	Age	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
1991	23	162	.353	.435	.515	168
1992	24	343	.232	.354	.281	83

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

We know nothing.

Rotation Thoughts

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sun, 09 Oct 2011 19:34:00 +0000

Shields - After a 225 strikeout season he probably would cost the most prospect-wise. Those who fret over his .260 BAbip are right to worry as that's a career low. Last season a .344 mark produced a 75 ERA+ but from 2007-2009 his BAbips were all in the .284-.311 range and he put up ERA+'s of 117, 124 and 105. He seems an unlikely bet to match his 2011 numbers but he'll still strike out a lot of hitters while walking very few.
Billingsley - He is owed 32 million over the next three seasons (actually 35M counting the buyout for the 4th year team option, which they'd almost assuredly decline), and given the Dodgers internal mess, I'd wager that's a contract they'd like to part with. At 27 he is still fairly young but he has put up an ERA+ south of 100 two of the last three seasons, so there's that. Also his 7.3 SO/9 was the lowest he'd ever put up in a full season so you have to wonder what's going on there.
Jackson - Unlike the previous two Jackson is a free agent so he won't cost prospects, only money, and in a weak class he is probably going to be overpaid. At 28 he is coming off four consecutive seasons of 180+ innings pitched and has had an ERA+ above 100 in three of them. If you'd rather see Moore give Jackson 3/39 than pay Shields or Billingsley less but have to part with Wil Myers or Mike Montgomery, then you're probably not alone.

All three of these guys would be significant upgrades over Jeff Francis.

The pitcher of our discontent

	Split	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	BB	SO	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
	1st Half	5	8	5.46	19	19	118.2	38	60	1.382	4.6	1.58
	2nd Half	6	3	3.52	12	12	79.1	24	68	1.134	7.7	2.83

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

This was the first season I exited the Hochevar bandwagon and I'm pretty certain I was one of the last few off. But that was before the All Star break, and well, look at what he did afterwards. If increased use of his slider really was what turned around his season (and possibly career) around then he may be in line for a big 2012. I'm not ready to make that prediction though.

One of the running jokes in the Royals blogosphere is that Hochevar is only consistent in his inconsistency, you see it's funny because it's true. Because of that it would surprise no one to see him totally bomb next season, even after his fantastic second half. Now I suppose it's likely that Moore rolls the dice and buys in to Hochevar's second half, that could mean an SP won't be a high priority as he'll feel comfortable with Hochevar at #1 again. That's just speculation on my part though but given how Moore tends to ignore track records I see it as a real possibility. It'd be a tremendous gamble though and I imagine a currently excited fan base would not react well to such a decision.

The strikeout artist

Rk	Player	Date	IP	SO
1	Felipe Paulino	2011-09-10	7.0	11
2	Felipe Paulino	2011-09-26	6.0	9
3	Luke Hochevar	2011-09-08	6.2	9
4	Bruce Chen	2011-08-23	7.2	9
5	Kyle Davies	2011-07-18	5.1	9
6	Felipe Paulino	2011-07-05	6.0	9
7	Danny Duffy	2011-06-19	3.2	9
8	Felipe Paulino	2011-09-21	5.0	8
9	Bruce Chen	2011-09-13	8.0	8
10	Luke Hochevar	2011-09-03	8.0	8
11	Felipe Paulino	2011-07-17	7.0	8
12	Felipe Paulino	2011-06-23	8.0	8

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Of the twelve games all year in which a Royals starter recorded 8 or more strikeouts Paulino started exactly half. His 8.59 SO/9 was the fourth best in franchise history among pitchers who started 20+ games. If Moore does indeed acquire a back of the rotation SP then I think I'd rather see Paulino at #1 instead of Hochevar.

Regression is of course the worry here but I'm not overly concerned with it. True he was abysmal with Houston and Colorado but considering that he only pitched 151.1 innings at AA and AAA combined I think he's a case of a guy who's finally figured things out. Of the four ifs, his is the one I'm most confident about coming true.

The young southpaw

I mentioned Danks as comp to Duffy earlier, which may be wishful thinking on my part, but take a look at the two left-handers rookie seasons and you'll see why I came to that conclusion.

	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	BB	SO	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
Danks	22	6	13	5.50	26	26	139.0	54	109	86	1.540	10.4	1.8	3.5	7.1	2.02
Duffy	22	4	8	5.64	20	20	105.1	51	87	73	1.614	10.2	1.3	4.4	7.4	1.71

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

In 2008 Danks produced a 138 ERA+, 6.4 bWAR sophomore season helping the White Sox take the Central one year after they finished 72-90. Granted that type of season seems unlikely for Duffy but there's no doubt that he has the talent and stuff to be well above average. I expect that the lack of high minor league seasoning (81.1 combined AA/AAA innings) will result in next season being another learning experience. In fact, I don't believe it's a given that Duffy even breaks camp with the club, and really, additional AAA innings are certainly not going to harm his development. In a rotation full of wild cards he may be the wildest card of them all.

Now you may have noticed the absence of Bruce Chen in this post, that's because I don't think he'll be back. If he does though, I expect we'll see more of the same, and that'll fit in nicely at #5.

So here's what we're potentially looking at next season:
1. Shields/Billingsley/Jackson
2. Hochevar
3. Paulino
4. Duffy
5. Crow/Teaford/Montgomery/Chen

I tend to get incredibly optimistic in the offseason but I think any of the 1 and 5 combinations along with the three holdovers would work, if things play out like we hope.

200

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sun, 02 Oct 2011 18:02:00 +0000

Player	Year	H	Age
George Brett	1976	215	23
George Brett	1979	212	26
Willie Wilson	1980	230	24
Kevin Seitzer	1987	207	25
Johnny Damon	2000	214	26
Mike Sweeney	2000	206	26
Melky Cabrera	2011	201	26

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

As you can see four of the seasons were accomplished by players in their age 26 season, which I find somewhat interesting.

Given the heightened offensive environments that existed in 1987 and 2000 an argument can be made that Cabrera's 200 hits may be more impressive than Seitzer, Damon and Sweeney's. On the flip side though there were five such seasons across baseball in '87, and six in '00 and five this season. So even when offense is up it seems only a handful players reach 200.

Acknowledging that, I thought it'd be interesting to see how the above players fared as compared to rest of baseball in their respective years. So here is their numbers as well as the MLB numbers and how many total players had 200 hits.

Player	Year	H	BA	OBP	SLG	mlbBA	mlbOBP	mlbSLG	OPS+	200 hit club
George Brett	1976	215	.333	.377	.462	.255	.320	.361	144	5
George Brett	1979	212	.329	.376	.563	.265	.330	.397	148	7
Willie Wilson	1980	230	.326	.357	.421	.265	.326	.388	113	6
Kevin Seitzer	1987	207	.323	.399	.470	.263	.331	.415	128	5
Johnny Damon	2000	214	.327	.382	.495	.270	.345	.437	118	6
Mike Sweeney	2000	206	.333	.407	.523	.270	.345	.437	131	6
Melky Cabrera	2011	201	.305	.339	.470	.255	.321	.399	121	5

I think it's a safe that bet that Cabrera regresses next seasons. As I've wrote before it's rare for a player as bad as Cabrera was before this season to suddenly find it. Of course where this regression occurs is still to be determined. I was of a mind that Cabrera would be back for 2012 with Cain as the fourth outfielder ready to step in should injury hit, but now, I think there's a strong chance he gets dealt.

And then per Bob Dutton, there's this:

A multi-year deal for center fielder Melky Cabrera, who is also eligible for arbitration, seems far less likely. Cabrera is believed to be seeking four or five years, while the Royals remain wary of spiking the incentive that comes with a one-year deal. Cabrera is the most-likely regular to be dealt because the Royals believe they have a replacement in Lorenzo Cain

I really don't know how much trade value Cabrera has. Given his less than stellar pre-2011 career I doubt any GM's have fully bought into his renaissance. I certainly haven't, and if I haven't, I can pretty much guarantee you that Andrew Friedman and Billy Beane haven't either. He'll definitely have to be part of a package that includes one of the Royals top prospects, be it Wil Myers or Mike Montogmery. And if Moore deals either of those two players, or Jake Odorizzi for that matter, he better nail the return.