Royally Speaking

Then And Now

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Thu, 31 May 2012 12:53:00 +0000

Well Then.....

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Tue, 15 May 2012 13:22:00 +0000

They lost closer Joakim Soria and catcher Salvador Perez in spring training - Soria for the year and Perez for the first half of the season.

The lost centerfielder Lorenzo Cain in the season's second series.

Greg Holland followed a bout of ineffectiveness with a trip to the DL.

Felipe Paulino started the season on the DL and has made just 2 starts.

Danny Duffy missed one start and was removed in the first inning of another. He is now out until next season.

Eric Hosmer has a 57 OPS+ and has hit just 3 home runs since the team left Anaheim.

They lost 12 games in a row.

And yet, despite all the above occurring, they are only 4.5 games out of first place.

Amazing.

Is This Really Chris Getz?

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Fri, 04 May 2012 21:25:00 +0000

Remember during spring training when we were told, despite no results to prove the claim, that the new batting stance being employed by Chris Getz would allow him to hit for more power? Remember how we mocked, and then mocked some more? Our skepticism was warranted due to the underwhelming spring .200/.241/.220 line that included just one extra base hit.

Well maybe there is something to the new batting stance above. Getz doubled in his first at bat of the season and hasn't looked back. After last night's double he now has six extra base hits on the season, which is just three less than all of last year. Look at the difference in slug between his starts the last two years:

Year	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011	51	41	6	13	1	0	0	5	.317	.375	.341	.716
2012	50	46	6	15	4	2	0	4	.326	.354	.500	.854

Sure the sample size is still too small to gather any meaningful data but Getz is passing the eyeball test. He really is hitting the ball harder, right now only Mike Moustakas (.553) and Billy Butler (.526) have higher slugging percentages. His numbers will almost certainly come down, just like they did last year (.255/.313/.287), but if he can hit .280/.330/.400 with average to slightly above average defense I have to believe we'd be looking at a valuable contributor.

When Johnny Giavotella was demoted I was ready to grab my pitchfork and storm One Royal Way with the rest of the angry mob, but now, I'm okay with Getz being the starting second baseman. I like productive baseball players, and at this moment, Chris Getz is a productive baseball player.

Francoeur Continues To Struggle, Yost Continues To Look The Other Way

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 14:50:00 +0000

Ned Yost's handling of Jeff Francoeur right now is one transgression I can't forgive. Yost appears to be seemingly unaware that Francoeur is lost at the plate, and has been for a couple weeks. But today, for the 16th time this year, he'll be batting fifth, creating a rally killing hole in the middle of the lineup. Since April 14th Francoeur has hit just .152/.188/.217 in 48 plate appearances. For the season he's at .225/.267/.296 with zero home runs and only 2 runs batted in. Now we all know RBI is a flawed stat, but flawed or not, that number is awfully low for a #5 hitter 18 games into the season.

Of the eleven Royals with 20+ plate appearances Francoeur is 11th in OPS+, 10th in RBI's, 10th in batting average, 11th in on base percentage and 11th in slugging percentage. And oh yeah, he's tied with Butler for the most times grounding into a double play. Simply put, he's currently the worst hitter on the team, and he's still batting in the middle of the order.

Given Yost's proclivity to juggle the lineup it's amazing that he's failed to significantly drop Francoeur for even a few games. He did hit 6th once during the Toronto series and responded with 2 hits. That was enough to apparently convince Yost that his slump was over because he was immediately moved back to 5th where he's gone 2 for 14 since. His slow start is a bad omen for the rest of the season because historically April is his best month. I mean, if he's this unproductive now, how will he fare in May and June, his two worst months.

I've been hesitant to board the Fire Ned Yost bandwagon despite his counter-productive base running strategy and despite his insistence on playing for 1 run in the early parts of games. Not to mention he still is clueless on how to best employ his relief pitchers. But this Francoeur thing, man, it's pushing me into rage territory. What really irritates me is that Yost is insistent on Francoeur receiving more at bats than Mike Moustakas. Moose, as you know, is having a terrific season (9 extra base hits, 132 OPS+) and the highest he's hit in the order is 6th. And remember, he was actually benched a game earlier in the season. I get the whole left, right, left lineup thing. I also don't care. I'd like Francoeur to get a day or two off and then bat 8th until he comes out of his slump.

Now that I've ranted this probably means Francoeur will get 4 hits and a home run today, and gosh, won't that just show me?

Teaching Moment Backfires

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sun, 22 Apr 2012 20:28:00 +0000

With right-handed hitting Brett Lawrie at the plate and a struggling Danny Duffy on the mound Ned Yost apparently felt it was time for another teaching moment. And oh yeah, the bases were loaded. Louis Coleman was ready in the bullpen but was not called upon despite the fact right-handers have hit just .182/.269/.357 against him in his career. Predictably the non-move backfired and Lawrie singled turning a 2-0 game into a 4-0 game. I get the teaching moment stuff, I really do. But there are times where it's not called for and this was one of those times. Duffy, over 100 pitches, was definitely not sharp. I mean, he almost threw a wild pitch intentionally walking Edwin Encarnacion. It appeared Duffy was openly criticizing the free pass, which if that's the case, you have to think that's a bad sign for Yost.

Also they've lost nine games in a row. Cancel class and win the game!

Production By Position - 2012 vs 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 00:06:00 +0000

If I told you on the morning of April 6th that the rotation would allow three runs or less in nine of the first twelve games what would you have guessed their record would be? 7-5? 8-4? Based on what we thought we knew I think even the most jaded would have guessed at least a .500 record. But here they sit at 3-9, the second worst mark in baseball (thank you San Diego). The starting pitching, outside of the Cleveland series, has been a pleasant surprise but the offense and bullpen have laid waste to several good performances.

Here is how the team has fared since 2000 in games where a starting pitcher has allowed three runs or less:

2012: 3-6
2011: 54-38
2010: 55-26
2009: 54-34
2008: 66-32
2007: 58-34
2006: 38-38
2005: 41-36
2004: 46-33
2003: 63-29
2002: 47-43
2001: 50-27
2000: 47-20

A 3-6 record isn't really cause for concern but because it's early it'll get more attention than it should, simply because it's all we have to work with. I don't think they'll play under .500 all year in these situations. Last year they had a stretch where they went 3-12 (5/8-5/29) and a couple where they went 4-7 (6/15-7/10 and 8/5-8/24) so, yeah, I think this will more than even out.

So far everything we thought we knew has been wrong. We assumed the offense and bullpen would be fine and that second base and catcher would be offensive sinkholes, wrong (so far) on all four accounts. Let's look at how each position has fared compared to last season.

Catcher -

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.375	.435	.550	.985
2011	.263	.328	.365	.693

Losing Salvador Perez was huge but Humberto Quintero (.381/.462/.571) and Brayan Pena (.368/.400/.526) have been excellent at the plate thus far. Both are playing well above their heads in the early going, and it certainly won't last, but right now they are not a contributing factor in the team's inability to score runs.

First Base -

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.167	.259	.333	.593
2011	.272	.323	.442	.764

Eric Hosmer, however, is another story. Since leaving Anaheim, where he had 4 hits and 2 home runs, he's put up a .118/.250/.176 line. More than one person have compared Hosmer to Will Clark, due to similar rookie seasons and because they are both left-handed first baseman. Clark's sophomore year he hit .308/.371/.580 with 35 home runs, but included in those numbers was a 14 game stretch where he hit just .175/.250/.275. Slumps happen, Hosmer will be fine.

Second Base -

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.311	.326	.444	.771
2011	.254	.301	.335	.636

The Getzancourt experiment has gone better than everybody not named Moore or Yost thought possible. Like catcher, this position hasn't been the problem. It's hard to be upset about the absence of Johnny Giavotella when his replacements have been this productive. I'll wager a healthy sum that they can't continue to put up a .771 OPS but until they revert back to their pre-2012 selves I'll ease up on criticizing Gio's demotion.

Third Base -

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.239	.255	.435	.690
2011	.261	.311	.373	.683

If you had the difference in slugging percentage between Mike Moustakas (.419) and Chris Getz (.417) at just two points then step forward and collect your prize. In 11 games Moose has struck out 10 times and has failed to draw a single walk. His walk rate is one reason why he's always been considered less a sure thing than Hosmer. At some point he's going to get a free pass, but the question is, when, and will there be fireworks?

Shortstop -

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.244	.292	.400	.692
2011	.252	.287	.339	.626

Alcides Escobar is getting on base at about the same clip as the rest of his career but the jump in slug is significant. He entered 2012 with a .339 slugging percentage but is at .400 in the early going. A .692 OPS with his defense will certainly play. Now whether he can continue at this pace is still in doubt but the talent is most assuredly there.

Left Field -

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.163	.255	.265	.520
2011	.299	.374	.492	.867

A disappointing start to the season has some people worried about Alex Gordon but I have a strange feeling he's about to get hot. Like Hosmer, he's not going to hit like this all year. When those two get going the offense will improve tremendously.

Center Field -

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.238	.292	.333	.625
2011	.301	.341	.462	.803

There's plenty of blame to go around in center as four different players have started a game there. Of those, Mitch Maier is the only one that has shown in inclination to actually hit. It doesn't help that Melky Cabrera is showing that last year may not have been a fluke as he's off to a terrific start (.314/.375/.471). We expected this would be a position where offensive production would be down and it definitely has been. Maier should - and I expect will - play there everyday until Lorenzo Cain returns. Remember, Cain is no sure thing. He may be a defensive stud but he's yet to prove he can hit major league pitching.

Right Field -

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.239	.286	.326	.612
2011	.285	.331	.467	.798

Jeff Francoeur enjoyed a career revival last season but has thus been incapable of carrying it over. For his career April has been his most productive month so his early struggles could be a precursor to a season like 2008 when he hit .239/.294/.359 with a career low 72 OPS+.

Designated Hitter -

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.375	.400	.625	1.025
2011	.294	.365	.454	.819

Ned Yost has 99 problems but DH ain't one. Country Breakfast is on pace to accumulate 108 extra base hits. He is really locked in right now.

Rotation -

Year	ERA	WHIP	BB/9	SO/9
2012	4.41	1.43	3.9	6.7
2011	4.82	1.43	3.1	5.9

The Cleveland series really destroyed the rotation's numbers. Toss those three games in the trash where they belong and the group has a 2.91 ERA. My only quibble with the starters as a whole is they're not pitching enough innings and are taxing a struggling bullpen. Of course if Yost could bring himself to remember that he has a long reliever named Everett Teaford it would help. Teaford has appeared just once this year and pitched four scoreless innings. To put it another way, two weeks into the season and Teaford has the same amount of relief appearances as Maier.

Bullpen -

Year	ERA	WHIP	BB/9	SO/9
2012	4.26	1.35	3.0	10.2
2011	3.75	1.35	4.1	8.1

Yost's bullpen management has been a well documented problem most of his managerial career so it's no surprise that he made some questionable moves this year. But I'm here to help. Teaford, Ned, his name is Everett Teaford. Seriously though, this is a talented unit and I think they'll be fine.

3-7

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 23:17:00 +0000

Before spring training started I predicted the Royals win 82 games this year. I made many assumptions in coming up with this number but there are four in particular that I was dead wrong about.

That Salvador Perez would catch 130+ games this year.
That Felipe Paulino - and not Luis Mendoza - would begin the season in the rotation.
That Johnny Giavotella would be the #2 hitter and starting second baseman.
That Joakim Soria would be the closer and not suck.

The disabled list has claimed three of the players while Getzancourt blocked the other. But still, all is not lost. It's easy to dismiss the first ten games as "same old Royals" and assume they're on their way to another 90+ loss season. I can't fault anyone who feels that way. The Cleveland series was particularly distressing because it represented what the season as a whole would like in a worst case scenario. However, I'll go on record as saying that KC will not look that pathetic again this season.

If you're the optimistic sort, though, and are looking for anything to suggest that a 3-7 start isn't disastrous, then I have three examples you may be interested in, last year's Tigers, Rays and Red Sox.

Yr	Tm	W	L	R	RA	Rdiff	Result
2011	Tigers	3	7	43	56	-13	95-67, AL Central Champion
2011	Rays	2	8	36	49	-13	91-71, Wild Card
2011	Red Sox	2	8	38	69	-31	90-72
2012	Royals	3	7	41	52	-11	????

Ned Yost's Perfect Lineup

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 20:44:00 +0000

After watching Jarrod Dyson make an out in four of his five plate appearances yesterday Ned Yost decided to give the speedster another go at the top of the lineup. Yost has again fallen prey to the oldest of myths, that a leadoff hitter's speed is more important than his ability to get on base. Yost's double dose of insanity got me thinking about what his all time perfect lineup would look like, you know, just for fun. It's another exercise in pointlessness but it gave me an excuse to spend some time on baseball-reference.com.

1982 Omar Moreno CF - .242/.292/.315 60 steals
1990 Jay Bell SS - .254/.329/.362 39 sacrifice bunts
1992 Carney Lansford 3B - .262/.325/.369 Former batting champ (past = present)
1983 Tony Armas RF - .218/.254/.453 36 HR's 107 RBI's
1972 Dave Kingman DH -.225/.303/.462 29 HR's 83 RBI's
1977 Lee Mazzilli - LF .250/.340/.339 24 doubles, 22 steals
2004 Ken Harvey 1B - .287/.338/.421 All-Star
1983 Ned Yost C - .224/.243/.352 (Player-manager, duh!)
2011 Chris Getz 2B - .255/.313/..287 Mistake free.

According to the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool the above lineup would score 3.77 runs per game, but there's speed at the top, so it's all good.

Classic Ned

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 20:00:00 +0000

For the second time this week Ned Yost is trotting out a lineup that is a real head scratcher. Mistaking speed for on base ability he has inserted Jarrod Dyson into the leadoff spot. Now granted he's not the first manager to do such a thing, and certainly won't be the last, but Kansas City already has a leadoff hitter, and a good one at that. Yost made one of the best decisions of managerial career last year when he moved Alex Gordon to leadoff. This year, A1 was mired in a five game slump but busted out of it Wednesday when he got on base three times and hit his first home run of the young season. Today, though, he will bat fifth, one spot in front of Yuniesky Betancourt. He likely won't see too many hittable pitches.

Here's the full lineup:
CF Jarrod Dyson
RF Jeff Francoeur
1B Eric Hosmer
DH Billy Butler
LF Alex Gordon
2B Yuniesky Betancourt
3B Mike Moustakas
C Humberto Quintero
SS Alcides Escobar

Francoeur is an odd choice to bat second but I really have no problem with it for two reasons. First, and as has been mentioned before, this team doesn't really have a prototypical #2 hitter. Johnny Giavotella was originally tagged for that spot, but remember, he was demoted during spring training when the Royals discovered he was below average defensively, Because apparently they didn't know before. The second reason I don't mind Francoeur hitting second is because of his reputation as Mr. April.

Read more here: http://royalsblog.kansascity.com/?q=node/1013#storylink=cpy

Split	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
April/March	643	.280	.323	.481	.805
May	706	.247	.286	.374	.660
June	633	.255	.297	.378	.675
July	643	.280	.323	.470	.793
August	790	.276	.323	.432	.755
Sept/Oct	708	.286	.325	.465	.790

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

As you can see he is his most productive the first month of the season and he's off to another good start this year batting .333/.391/.429 in 23 plate appearances. If you're wondering if he's ever hit second before, the answer is yes, twice actually, in a game he didn't start. He had a walk and a sacrifice fly. So there's that.

This lineup could work but it wouldn't make it any less nonsensical. Yost once hit Willie Bloomquist third and Spork responded by hitting a freaking game winning home run. But even though the end result was productive Bloomquist never hit third again, because it was an insane idea. I suspect if Dyson steals just one base today we'll see him at the top of the lineup until Lorenzo Cain comes off the disabled list.

Losing Ugly

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 14:33:00 +0000

I don't think it's exaggerating to describe the performance of the 2004-2006 Royals as a comedy of errors. Hilarity would often ensue as they would find one creative way after another to lose a game. Yesterday Ken Harvey and Chip Ambres were no doubt weeping with pride as Jonathan Broxton produced an outing that undoubtedly landed him a place on Joe Posnanski's wall of shame. Brought out to protect a one run lead Broxton struck out Daric Barton to begin the bottom of the 12th, and then, disaster struck. The rest of the inning looked like this: error, walk, walk, fielders choice (run), hit by pitch and hit by pitch (run, ballgame).

Alcides Escobar certainly deserves his share of the blame for the one out error but Broxton's failure to throw strikes is what cost them the game. Hopefully yesterday provided Ned Yost with a learning experience and he'll remove Broxton from the game should a similar situation arise.

The ugly loss marred an otherwise encouraging start to the season. They were two outs away from being 4-2 when they open at home tomorrow but instead limped back to KC at 3-3. Now it's hard to be disappointed in any .500 road trip, but when you consider how close they were, it easy to call the what might have beens what should have beens.

And really, you can make the argument that they should be 5-1. Yost's overreaction to Mike Moustakas and Alex Gordon's slow starts was mocked in real time Monday when he trotted out a lineup that ultimately made Tom Milone look like a Cy Young contender. I'm not joking either, here's the starting nine with their career OPS+ in parenthesis.

Bourgeois (75)
Cain (93)
Hosmer (118)
Butler (120)
Francoeur (96)
Betancourt (82)
Pena (75)
Escobar (72)
Getz (68)

Unsurprisingly, they were shutout. Luis Mendoza was surprising, though, with a performance that straddled that fine line between lucky and good. In 5.2 innings he gave up 5 hits, 4 walks and 1 run while striking out just 2. While you can go all glass half full and focus on the 1 run it'd be wise to take a closer look at the other numbers because they come out to a 1.58 WHIP, 6.4 BB/9 and 3.2 SO/9. Trust me, he'll want to improve in those categories or his stint in the rotation will be over by the end of April.

The rotation did a solid job on the west coast posting a 1.85 ERA in the six games. However, they averaged less than 6 innings per start with Luke Hochevar the only one of the five to pitch into the 7th inning. In half the starts they never made it into the 6th, which begs the question, why hasn't Everett Teaford appeared in a game yet? Teaford has supposedly taken over long relief duties but has yet to be seen. Meanwhile five other members of the bullpen (including alleged LOOGY Jose Mijares) have appeared three times each. If Teaford is going to be treated like a Rule 5 pick then maybe he should trade places with Omaha's Louis Coleman. Just a thought.

It'll be interesting to see how they respond to yesterday's disastrous loss. Personally I think the day off today probably helps and I'm sure an enthusiastic crowd tomorrow will have the boys pumped up. It also doesn't hurt that they'll be facing the struggling Indians. Cleveland is sitting at 1-4 thanks in no small part to being 11th in the AL in runs and 12th in ERA. The Royals, on the other hand, are also 11th in runs but are right now, believe it or not, leading the American League with a 2.39 ERA. It won't last but it was fun to write.

Nice Start To The Season

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 22:18:00 +0000

Just like last year the Royals won the their first series of the season despite an opening day loss to Jered Weaver. A strong start is absolutely vital if KC wants to contend for a few months. Detroit looks like they are who we thought they are and seem capable of running away with the division. I don't know about you but I'd like to see the Royals within 5 games at the break. Anyway, here are my takeaways from the season's opening weekend.

The return of Second Half Luke highlighted a strong series by the rotation. I wasn't shocked by Bruce Chen's start as he is capable of those types of outings. Sure they'll be the exception rather than the rule but if he can keep his ERA+ around 100 all year I'll be happy. Luke Hochevar was just plain nasty at times while pitching into the 7th inning. He allowed just 2 runs but those were scored when Yost strangely and unsurprisingly brought in Tim Collins to face Bobby Abreu instead of Jose Mijares, the guy who was signed to be the bullpen's LOOGY. Jonathan Sanchez was serviceable but always seemed to be on the brink of giving up a big inning. 3 walks and 2 wild pitches, man, this guy is not going to be boring.
I'm fully convinced Eric Hosmer is going to make a run at Steve Balboni's home run record. Hosmer homered on Saturday and Sunday and appears to be locked in early. This, of course, will only make him more expensive if he should decide to sign a long term deal.
Getzancourt looked good but let's not get carried away. The two headed offensive force at second base combined to hit .455/.455/.545 in the series and played decent defense. There was something wonderfully pleasing about Chris Getz hitting a double in his first at bat of the season, but look, last year the guy hit .342/.400/.368 in his first 47 plate appearances, and that was with his old batting stance. I'm not rooting against him and Betancourt, I mean if they can produce at even a league average pace I think a lot of us will be thrilled, but their track record is what it is, so I remain doubtful either one will hit enough to justify their roster spot.
Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain all struggled. I'm not worried about A1, he'll hit, but Moose and Cain are still question marks so I was hoping they would both get off to strong starts. Cain is a defensive wiz and I'm not sure how much he'll have to hit to keep his starting job but he may want to get it going sooner rather than later.

Oakland's next as we get our first look of the season at Luis Mendoza, a guy I desperately want to be wrong about.

Game 1 Thoughts

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 14:31:00 +0000

For the most part this game was a replay of a last year's opening day. If you'll recall the Royals were unable to score off Jered Weaver in that game too. KC then shook that loss off and won the next three games in the series. Let's hope for something similar today and tomorrow. I'm not sure I get all the hand wringing about this loss. These types of games are going to happen against the Weavers and Verlanders of the world.

Bruce Chen looked good. The funnyman pitched 6 scoreless innings but was removed after just 75 pitches. His Game Score of 70 was the 9th highest in his Royals career. Now I know Yost pulling him caused quite a stir but I didn't have a problem with the move. Chen didn't seem as sharp in the 6th inning, and with the heart of the Angels lineup coming up in the 7th, I'm not sure he would've made it out of the inning.
Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas combined to go 0/19 with 10 strikeouts. Call me crazy but I don't think that's going to happen too many times. It was distressing watching them chase so many pitches out of the strike zone but hopefully that was just first game jitters.
Yuniesky Betancourt looked ok and actually got on base twice due to a couple Mark Trumbo errors. Yuni singled in the 7th inning after Trumbo hilariously misplayed a foul ball. That hit might have scored Jeff Francoeur had he not got picked off second base. There was a mini-controversy surrounding Yuni's start in this game, but come on, the only other option was Chris Getz. I recognize the lesser of two evils when I see it.
Aaron Crow looked good striking out the side in the 7th but then turned around and gave up three straight hits in the 8th. Instead of putting out the fire Greg Holland allowed all three runs to score plus two more of his own. I expect this will be a rare occurrence too but I couldn't help but think about the 2006 bullpen that was supposed to be dominant but instead was a disaster.
Albert Pujols failed to get the ball out of the infield. A longtime Royal killer he looked absolutely ordinary against Chen and Crow. His only time on base was due to an intentional walk that predictably failed to halt the Angels 8th inning onslaught.
It was just the second time in franchise history that KC has been shutout on opening day. The first occurred in 1976 when Amos Otis, George Brett, John Mayberry, Hal McRae and Al Cowens combined to go 3/19 in a 4-0 loss to the White Sox. The Royals somehow shook that loss off and won their first division title that year.

The Royals face Dan Haren today so it will probably be another low scoring affair. He has a 1.91 ERA in 8 career starts against KC. Luke Hochevar will oppose him in his first attempt at proving his 2011 second half was not a fluke.

Kansas City Royals 2012 Preview - Twitter Edition

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 16:29:00 +0000

When the 2011 season ended Royals fans everywhere wished they could fast forward time to 2012's opening day. Well after a long offseason, and an up and down spring, that day has finally arrived. Mission 2012, Our Time or whatever you want to call it begins tonight against the California Angels (don't care what they're really called, they'll always be the California Angels to me).

Typically when I do a season preview it's a roundtable with other bloggers, and sometimes members of the mainstream media. This year, though, I handed off preview duties to some of my favorite people on twitter (if you're not on twitter, you should be, because it will change the way you watch a Royals game). Today's participants are all passionate Royals fans (and worthy follows, so follow them) and enthusiastically agreed to answer some questions about the 2012 season. I made it clear they didn't have to adhere to any character limits so they could feel free to go as in-depth as they wanted, some took me up on it, some didn't.

Here is the roundtable cast (do yourself a favor and follow all these people):
@Martin26M
@tigerdan4
@burymearoyal
@NorthMoRoyal
@LilFrenchysMom
@5joeclines

1. Which starting pitcher will have the best season?

@Martin26M - Boy what a loaded question. Based on history alone Chen has been the best/most consistent starter on the staff 3 years in a row. Logic would say another year of that with 12-14 wins at least with a higher 3 - low 4.0 ERA. The true x-factors to this for me is Paulino figuring out his potential and newly acquired Jonathan Sanchez ability to return to his 2010 form. If he finds that magic he should emerge as the ace of the staff with 14+ wins. Until then the safe money has to be Chen. Duffy is too far away from finding his pitching identity and Hoch having his 1 inning meltdowns. Monty like Duffy needs to find their identity, quit trying to be a power guy finessing their way down the lineup. Cut the walks and trust your defense with your strength, I call it the Greinke effect.

@tigerdan4 - Danny Duffy with 16 wins.

@burymearoyal - I’ll take Luke Hochevar, who I think really has to take a big step forward in 2012. How much longer can Luke stay in the rotation of an ever-improving Royals squad if he can’t even put up league average numbers for the whole year? Anyway, I’ll be optimistic and say Hoch is the one Ned throws out there for the one-game wildcard playoff against the Angels (ha). 15 wins, 4.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 200 IP, 150 Ks.

@NorthMoRoyal -Luke Hochevar will be the Royals best starting pitcher when the All-Star break hits KC, but Danny Duffy will light the AL up come the 2nd half posting a 11-2 record in the 2nd half alone after going 6-6 in the 1st half of the season. Duffy's 1st half era of 4.84 is reduced to 3.25 after a dominating 2nd half of the season making him the best SP for the season.

@LilFrenchysMom - I think Hochevar will have the best first half of the season but Duffy will have a better second half. I think both pitchers will end up with at least 12 wins each. Chen will be sporadic and won't pitch as well as the last 2 years.

@5joeclines - Duffman, oh ya. But I think picking the best SP is like picking our best opening day option at 2nd base. 12 wins 3.16 era (#godovereverything).

2. Who will be the team's best hitter?

@Martin26M - All money is on Hosmer and Gordon as the triple threat leaders. Gordon has the muscle maturity for the power numbers to really emerge. Hos will start to see more doubles become HRs this year. Butler will in the hunt for AVG and RBI race.

@tigerdan4 - Eric Hosmer at .325 with 110 RBIs.

@burymearoyal - Chris Getz, because he really came into spring training and showed everyone he’s a “totally different offensive player” now that he’s made those much-publicized changes to his batting stance. Nah, seriously, Eric Hosmer is the obvious choice here. I think he’ll make significant progress toward becoming a legit superstar, with a .290 AVG, .340 OBP, and 25 HRs.

@NorthMoRoyal - Billy Butler will lead the team in BA and OBP this season with a .325 BA and a .400 OBP. He will drive the ball a lil less with 14 HR's but still will reach the 40+ doubles that he did last yr. (for the record I also think Billy could hit 25+ HR's and still bat .325 w. a .360+ OBP)

@LilFrenchysMom - Alex Gordon will be the best overall hitter but Eric Hosmer will lead the team in RBI's and home runs.

@5joeclines - Country Breakfast. From base clogger to base clearer, 32 hr bustout.

3. Who will lead the team in home runs? And will Balboni's franchise record 36 home runs finally be broken?

@Martin26M - As before, I see Gordon as the HR leader, again due to muscle maturity, but Hos will be close on his tail. With Frenchy adding for an interesting race…No, Balboni’s record is safe this year, next year is a different story, though.

@tigerdan4 - Eric Hosmer with 32. HR record broken next year by Moustakas.

@burymearoyal - Billy Butler. I don’t think he’ll quite break Balboni’s record, but I expect Country Breakfast to finally see a big jump in his power numbers now that he has some decent bats around him. In the end, I say 10 of those majestic Billy Butler doubles will clear the fence, and he finally will break that 30 home run mark.

@NorthMoRoyal - Eric Hosmer will lead the team in HR's this season with 31 and will also lead the team in RBI's and doubles while hitting a .290.

@LilFrenchysMom - I predict Hos hitting 32 home runs and Alex Gordon with 28. Billy Butler will have 23 home runs and Frenchy will have 22. Lorenzo Cain will be a powerhouse with 27 home runs. Is this wishful thinking? Chris Getz will hit 1 home run this year.

@5joeclines - Country Breakfast, not this year but next.

4. Who will represent the Royals in the All Star game?

@Martin26M - Hosmer and Gordon.

@tigerdan4 - Alex Gordon as a starter, Billy Butler & Eric Hosmer as reserves. Hosmer in the HR Derby.

@burymearoyal - I could see Gordon, Hosmer, or Butler making the All Star team, if they have big years. But if I’ve got to choose one, I’ll say @Hos3KC, because I think he’s got the personality to really win the fans over and rack in those votes.

@NorthMoRoyal - Eric Hosmer and Greg Holland will represent the Royals in the All-Star game with Eric being 2nd in the league in RBI's at the break and Holland will have a sub 1 era at the break.

@LilFrenchysMom - Eric Hosmer and Alex Gordon, Greg Holland in the bullpen as a closer. Yes, I am dreaming of 3 Royals All Stars.

@5joeclines - A1, Holland.

5. Which relief pitcher will lead the team in saves?

@Martin26M - Broxton will take the job and never give it up. I was one of a few people calling for Soria to be traded in the offseason while he had great value, that’s forever lost now.

@tigerdan4 - Jonathan Broxton with 27. Holland will chip in with 15.

@burymearoyal - I think Yost will start the season with Broxton as the stopper, but switch to Greg Holland sometime before the All-Star break. Holland will finish the year with ERA, WHIP, and K numbers similar to last year, with 20-25 saves.

@NorthMoRoyal - While I hoped that Broxton would lead the team in Saves for the season because it meant that Holland was used in a "Firemans" role in 6-7-8th innings I think Holland winds up being the closer eventually ending up with 27 saves on the season.

@LilFrenchysMom - Greg Holland will lead the team in saves. He will get 29 saves and have an ERA of less than 2.00.

@5joeclines - Crow

6. How many games will the Royals win this year and in what place will they finish?

@Martin26M - I will be conservative and call it an 80 win/ .500 season.

@tigerdan4 - 83 wins & 2nd place. Royals will make playoffs as the 2nd Wildcard.

@burymearoyal - I’m using every optimistic bone in my body here, but I really can’t see the Royals cracking .500 this year. I think there’s good reason to like the offense and the bullpen, but I just can’t ignore that absolutely horrible starting pitching. We’d need absolute breakthrough years from Duffy, Hochevar, and Paulino to even think about competing in the Central. But that’s too much to ask for in a single year. In the end, I’ll say 79-83. Third place in the AL Central, behind Detroit and Cleveland.

@NorthMoRoyal - Barring any serious injuries(ie; 60 day DL trips) among the core of the lineup I see the Royals being kind of streaky this season, finishing strong in Sept after a rough August and winding up with 86 wins.

This is completely off the cuff and just a guess of course. I don't have an analytical mind nor the patience to review numbers and tendencies. This is just for fun of course and I hope that you all can agree..Royals baseball is a gift. Lets enjoy it! Go Royals! #BuryMeARoyal

@LilFrenchysMom - The Royals will finish in 2nd place with a record of 82-80.

@5joeclines - 78 wins, 2nd place.

Spring Training's Highs and Lows

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sat, 31 Mar 2012 20:12:00 +0000

Spring training this year............has been weird. It's been a roller coaster of emotions as something good would seemingly be followed by something bad. Since I've been too ~~lazy~~ busy to touch on any of the last couple week's topics I thought I'd hit some of the ones I missed here as I give my thoughts on this spring's highs and lows (spoiler alert; one of my highs will not be well received).

Highs

Alex Gordon extended. Many of us felt priority 1 (or A1 if you prefer) when the offseason began was to get Gordon extended. It happened later than I thought but Dayton Moore got a deal done, and for cheaper than I predicted. I thought it'd be 4/40 with a 15 million 5th year team option but instead it comes in at 4/37.5 with a 12.5 5th year player option. As long as he stays healthy I have no doubt that KC will get their money's worth. It also illustrates once again the difference between Moore and Allard Baird, in that one is allowed to extend players while the other was forced to trade them for basically garbage.

Salvador Perez locked up. I briefly touched on this here and still feel the same way, despite his injury. The deal is cheap enough that even if he turns out to be injury prone it's not going to affect future payroll decisions. While I'm not enthralled with Humberto Quintero I can handle his 58 OPS+ so long as he plays gold glove defense and returns to the bench (or Houston) when Perez comes back.

Alcides Escobar locked up. This was such a low key signing that I actually missed it. While it wasn't as sexy a move as locking up Perez it does eliminate my fear that if he got off to a slow start again he'd be replaced by Betancourt. He signed a 4/10 deal that could rise to 6/21.75 if a pair of team options are exercised. I was frankly surprised Moore didn't wait another year to see if Escobar is going to hit or not. Like Perez, his deal won't inhibit future signings. I tend to knock Moore around a little but he did a great job of locking up two excellent defenders at key positions with extremely team friendly contracts.

Danny Duffy wins rotation spot. After Luis Mendoza's dominating spring performance I initially figured Duffy would be the odd man out in the rotation. Felipe Paulino's injury took the mystery out of that decision as Duffy has now been pegged for the fifth spot. Maybe this will be the year Bill Butler's team record 156 strikeouts by a LHP is broken. That was set in 1969, the franchise's first season, it's time it falls and Duffy is talented enough to be the one to do it. Last season his 7.43 SO/9 was the highest ever by a Royals left handed starter (min. 20 starts).

Steve Physioc and Rex Hudler debut in the booth. The Wonder Dog got pounded on twitter for his performance last night, but I don't care, I like the guy. I think some of the criticism Hudler received was by people upset over Frank White's dismissal and already had made up their minds they wouldn't like his replacement. Here's the thing though, I remember White being mocked on twitter often and I really don't recall the love-fest beginning until after he was let go. How his dismissal went down was unfortunate, but I firmly believe it was the right decision, even though it was made for the wrong reason. He was a terrific baseball player but that doesn't always translate to the booth. It did for Splitt for sure, but it didn't for White. Hudler's enthusiastic, in your face style is the polar opposite to White's just woke up, did I miss anything. I like the fact that booth will have more personality this year.

Lows

Perez to miss three months. And thus began the Quintero era. Perez showed so much offensively and defensively last year that I couldn't wait to see what he would do over the course of a full season. Now I'll have to wait until next year, because even when he comes back mid-summer they plan on taking a conservative approach with his playing time, which I'm fine with.

Joakim Soria to miss entire season. Soria will undergo a second Tommy John surgery and may never pitch in a Royals uniform again. A deep and filthy bullpen significantly lightens this loss. How deep is the pen? Well Louis Coleman (143 ERA+, 9.7 SO/9 last year) will rightly or wrongly begin the season in Omaha. I'd like to see Broxton take over the closers role so Greg Holland can continue to come in and put out fires when needed.

Paulino to begin the season on the disabled list. Only three starters in Royals history had a higher SO/9 than Paulino's 8.59 last year (also min. 20 starts), and while that never made him lock for the rotation, it probably should have. After his DL stint is up and he makes three minor league rehab starts the team will know what they have in Mendoza. I'm not rooting for him to fail, mind you, but I think he will and it'll be his spot in the rotation that Paulino claims when he's added to the 25 man roster.

Johnny Giavotella demoted. I really wasn't expecting this as I thought he'd get at least a month to prove he belongs. This by no means closes the door on a potential return but I don't think it'll be as quick as many believe. His failure to hit well enough in a small sample size means the two headed monster known as Getzencourt will occupy second base. Seeing how Getz and Betancourt are both general manager and manager favorites it's hard to imagine Gio returning before the All Star break. On a side note I have a poll up about Giavotella's nickname. I'd always assumed it was Gio but I've been seeing Gia more and more, and no not this Gia, though it is what I think every time someone calls Giavotella that. Anyway, which do you prefer?

Contention Hopes Take An Early Hit

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 21:32:00 +0000

Before spring training began if you would have polled everyone in the Royals front office about which player would be the most difficult to replace I imagine Sal Perez would have garnered the top spot. His combination of above average defense and potentially league average offense gives Kansas City one of the game's top up and coming catchers. No offense to Brayan Pena and Max Ramirez but they can't do what Sal (#stopsalvy) can do.

Despite playing in only 39 games last season Sal led Royals catchers in rWAR with 1.1, Pena and Matt Treanor played 137 games combined and had just 0.7 rWAR to show for it. For a team expecting to compete* this season Sal's absence is sort of a big deal. If Billy Butler was hurt or had to replace an injured Eric Hosmer I don't think Kevin Kouzmanoff and Clint Robinson would wet the bed offensively if they platooned at DH for a couple months (though I acknowledge I could be wrong about that). The same goes for Mitch Maier if he has to replace any of the starting outfielders.

*I realize people have differing definitions of competing so let me explain real quick what it means to me. It's easy to look at the final 2011 Central standings and conclude that Detroit ran away with the division, but that's not accurate. Last season the Indians won 80 games and finished 15 back of the Tigers but if you recall they were in the thick of the Central race into late August. When I say the Royals can compete despite winning 80-82 games, that's what I'm talking about, four and a half to five months where they are within a few games of the leader. Now next season I may decide that's not good enough and define it differently, but for 2011, it absolutely will be.

The team is looking for veteran help now that they've learned Sal will likely miss all of the first half. They looked in the direction of Ivan Rodriguez but interest there was apparently one sided (it should be noted that Dutty is saying the Royals never extended an invitation to camp).

Whoever they end up bringing in will still be a significant step down from Perez, offensively and defensively. It's just a massively disappointing way to start the season. I didn't believe that last season's run of good luck health-wise would carry over into 2012 but I didn't think it'd hit this early, or hit Sal.

It should have been Yuni.

Preparing For Life With Mendoza

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 19:38:00 +0000

A line that is commonly repeated this time of year is 'spring training stats don't matter'. You'll hear it from all corners of the internet and it's mostly true, but in the same way that Westley was mostly dead, meaning it's also slightly untrue. The fact is, right or wrong, jobs are won and lost on how players produce during spring training games. Case in point, Luis Mendoza.

If you'll recall Mendoza is competing for a rotation spot because Dayton Moore contracted Humberitis, a rare affliction that makes a general manager paranoid about losing a mediocre player because another mediocre player performed well for three months for another team (look it up!). Mendoza has pitched 6 scoreless innings this spring and now appears to be the favorite to be starter number five. In his last start he pitched 4 impressive innings, though it should be noted that the lineup the Rockies tossed at him wasn't going to strike fear in the hearts of too many pitchers (for example, career .186/.225/.289/39 OPS+ hitter Brandon Wood batted cleanup).

Danny Duffy was dominant in his first start but I think he's facing an uphill challenge now and may have to be damn near perfect the remainder of the spring. And even then it may not be enough, not as long as Mendoza is tossing up zeros. Sure you can argue that it's much too early for this sort of speculation but I'd counter with Yost and Moore are seeing exactly what they wanted, and what they expected. I mean, if they don't accept the general sabermetric view on Betancourt then you can pretty much assume they don't on Mendoza either. And of course I'm talking about the view that over the course of a full season his strikeout and walk rates would be a hindrance to sustained success. Recent history suggests this is, in fact, true.

If I'm right and he does make the rotation then I think we could see a repeat of what Sean O'Sullivan did last year. Like Mendoza, O'Sullivan is trying to survive with a low strikeout rate (4.2 SO/9). Last season he had a 2.16 ERA after his first 4 starts but his other numbers were telling a story that would produce an unhappy ending. In 25 innings he had 13 strikeouts and 13 walks and held hitters to an unsustainable .227 BAbip, meaning he was more lucky than good, and at some point the wheels would fall off. And boy, did they ever. His next 5 starts produced a 11.10 ERA and he was compassionately removed from the rotation making just one more start all year (a token September appearance in which he gave up 6 runs in 5 innings).

O'Sullivan provides a decent example on the difference between AAA and major league hitters. For Omaha last year he had 6.6 SO/9 and 1.9 BB/9 rates, numbers he came nowhere close to replicating for Kansas City (2.9 SO/9, 4.0 BB/9). So what Mendoza accomplished in AAA last year doesn't really matter because to succeed at the big league level he has to miss bats, and that my friends, is something he is unable to do.

Some Early Spring Thoughts

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 15:27:00 +0000

When Dayton Moore chose to bring back Yuniesky Betancourt there were a vocal few who thought the outcry by myself and many others was completely overblown. They were convinced that Ned Yost's minimal use of the bench would continue on into 2012. But a few weeks ago Moore suggested that Yuni could wind up the every day second baseman, and now, Yost has come out said that he wants him in the lineup three or four times a week. That, my friends, is a problem.

I said right off the bat that he would amass at least 300 plate appearances, I didn't believe for a second that he was going to get paid two million dollars to sit on the bench for 125 games. He was brought in to play, and play he will. He has performed well (for him) against lefty's in his career but last year he struggled mightily against southpaws putting up a .229/.246/.331 line. If they are intent on Mike Moustakas sitting against tough lefty's then Yuni better improve on last year's numbers. Of course the preferred way of keeping him on the bench would be for Moustakas and Johnny Giavotella to start hitting right out of the gate.

Max Ramirez has come to the plate just 6 times thus far but already has 2 home runs and 6 RBI's. He's a catcher like Clint Robinson is a first baseman, meaning he's not. Another home run, though, and he'll be the latest cause du jour.

Jonathan Sanchez and Bruce Chen struggled in their respective first starts, which means next to nothing, but I like what Chen did afterwards. He came out and took responsibility for his outing and tweeted "Not the kind of outing I expected, but I am proud of my teammates for rallying for the win after a poor start by me!". A few more honest assessments of his performance and he is going to make reporters lazy. Why interview him when they can just follow him?

Optimism Reigns

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 15:57:00 +0000

It's hard to remember the last time the fan base was this excited during spring training. Sure some labeled the Royals sleeper picks in 2004 and 2009 but those teams weren't near as young, exciting and talented as this year's squad. This past week has heightened the optimism that begin to spread immediately after the 2011 season ended. It seemed like every day something surfaced out of Surprise that excited fans.

On Monday Dayton Moore locked up catcher Salvador Perez for possibly the next eight years, and he did it on the cheap. Even if all three option years are exercised, and Perez meets all the escalators, it's still a great deal. The only downside is there will be a segment of fans that will start the trade Perez talk in a few years due to his age and contract, and because, of course, his value will never be higher. That is coming folks. I predict we will start hearing such talk by November 2014. If Perez meets expectations, I'll be on board with trading him about as much as I am the trade Butler calls by the confused minority.

On Tuesday Danny Duffy tweeted this:

Now admittedly I first interpreted this tweet a little different than Duffy likely intended. I read it as a person might read 'pour me a drink'. While I was pondering what Yuni did to to deserve such a fate twitter exploded and the #BuryMeARoyal hashtag was born (expect to see it every fifth day this year). Everyone has a take on what Duffy meant as his tweet was analyzed and over-analyzed. I think he's a young guy having the time of his life right now and can't imagine playing anywhere else. With the talent the Royals possess on offense and defense he is in a great position to succeed, if, that is, he can find the strike zone.

Eric Hosmer further fired up fans yesterday when he said that Perez's contract has made him more open to signing such a deal himself (though for money I'm sure). This is the big get. If Moore can keep Hosmer in the fold for the next 8-10 years you have to like the team's chances of staying competitive in that time frame.

Spring training is the time every fan of every team should be optimistic about the upcoming season just because reality hasn't reared it's all too ugly head yet. Kansas City figures to field its first truly competitive team since 1994. After wandering around a wilderness of mediocrity for nearly two decades the promised land is finally in sight.

How can you not be optimistic?

Sunday Linkage

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 14:53:00 +0000

This year, in attempt to try something different, I'm going to put the shorter posts I write on my Google+ page. I've already posted once on there so check that out and maybe let me know if this something worth pursuing. I like the potential of G+ and I think a conversation there would be much easier to follow than on twitter. Twitter is great but tweeting on a topic with several different people can be confusing at times, mainly due to the character limitations and other topics interspersed on the timeline. (I also have a G+ page for the blog that can only be described as poorly maintained.)

Royals’ Paulino thinks he’s poised for good year - KC Star
Yost added, “If he takes what he’s doing on the side into the games, he’s a lock (for the rotation). His side sessions, I’m seeing exactly what I want to see.”

Count me among the many that can't believe Felipe Paulino isn't already a lock for the rotation. He was exactly league average (100 ERA+) and led all starters in SO/9 (8.6) and SO/BB (2.48). Strictly by performance Sanchez should be the one on the bubble.

Soria says he figured out problems late last season - KC Star

It often gets overlooked, when assessing Soria’s season-long numbers, that much of the ugliness occurred in the first two months before he junked a cut fastball that seemed to affect command of his other pitches.

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/02/20/3441323/soria-convinced-he-figured-out.html#storylink=cpy

There is something to this. From June 2nd on, Joakim Soria had a 2.58 ERA and was 21/23 in save opportunities. He held MLB hitters to a .266 OBP in that time period. Of the 12 runs he allowed in his final 37 appearances 7 of them came in his 2 blown saves. The shelf life of closers, even among the elite, can be short. I think Soria will rebound but he may never be the Soria of 2008-2010 again.

Opening Day Countdown: 41 - Minda Haas

Part of what makes triples so exciting, I think, is how random they are. All kinds of hitters can lead their teams in triples. It’s just as likely to be a scrappy little infielder who bounces a lot of hits right into the corners as it is to be a power hitter who pounds the gaps consistently. Triples require almost as much dumb luck (or dumb outfield reaction) as they do athleticism.

Minda is counting down to opening day by posting an article that corresponds with the day. It's been fun to follow thus far so be sure to check those out.

2012 Kansas City Royals Preview Show! - The Phil Naessens Show

Josh Duggan of Royalscentricity and Royals Review fame talked about the upcoming season as a guest on The Phil Naessens Show.

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/02/23/3447941/royals-paulino-believes-hes-poised.html#storylink=cpy

Second Base Competition

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 16:41:00 +0000

From Bob Dutton's piece on Saturday:

The Royals re-acquired shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, by signing him as a free agent in December, to fill their need for a utility infielder. Betancourt isn’t likely to play much at short — Alcides Escobar started 156 games in 2011 — but he could wind up at second.

“Betancourt could (become the starting second baseman),” general manager Dayton Moore said, “but I don’t think it will be on opening day. Giavotella would really have to struggle.”

The early line suggests Betancourt will back up either Giavotella or Getz with the other returning to Omaha. Don’t be surprised, if Giavotella struggles, if the job remains in flux throughout the summer.

“Second base is not a concern for me,” Yost said. “I think we’re well-covered there with Gio and Getzie.”

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/02/18/3438355/four-areas-to-watch-as-royals.html#storylink=cpy

I'm probably overreacting but I find the quotes by Moore and Yost disconcerting. It doesn't take much digging into the past to find players who struggled and were subsequently given up on. While I doubt any Royals fans are weeping over Kila Ka'aihue there a few of us still bitter over the treatment Justin Huber received (and I promise, I'm almost over it).

Of all the youngsters on the roster it'd shock no one to learn that Johnny Giavotella arrived at spring training with the shortest least. That's partially due to the .247/.273/.376 line he put last year but mostly due, I think, to managerial favorite Getz and general managerial favorite Betancourt. Giavotella struggled for sure after being promoted but his 77 OPS+ was better than both of his competitors (Yuni 75, Getz 68), and of the three, he's the only one with upside. So if I were to bet on which one would improve upon his 2011 production, well, I know where I would put my money.

Now maybe they could just be trying to motivate Giavotella but who really knows. I haven't seen similar comments made about Lorenzo Cain, who is just as big a question mark as Giavotella, and has a more than adequate backup in Mitch Maier.

I can understand the temptation to replace a struggling youngster in the midst of a pennant race (this was allegedly the reason for Kila's demotion if you recall) but inserting Yuni or Getz into the starting lineup would, at best, be a lateral move. At worst, it makes the offense weaker.

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Tomorrow I'll be on 610 Sports from 10-11 AM along with Mike Engel and David Lesky. We'll be answering questions and texts in a roundtable discussion that will most likely not include any mentions of Grease 2 (but if it does I'll be ready). Non NW Missouri residents can listen in here.

On Gordon And Aging

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 17:03:00 +0000

I noticed an interesting thing the other day while looking at 20+ home run seasons by Royals outfielders, all but one of them were achieved by players in their 20's. See for yourself.

Rk	Player	HR	Year	Age
1	Danny Tartabull	34	1987	24
2	Jermaine Dye	33	2000	26
3	Bo Jackson	32	1989	26
4	Danny Tartabull	31	1991	28
5	Carlos Beltran	29	2002	25
6	Bo Jackson	28	1990	27
7	Jermaine Dye	27	1999	25
8	Carlos Beltran	26	2003	26
9	Danny Tartabull	26	1988	25
10	Amos Otis	26	1973	26
11	Bo Jackson	25	1988	25
12	Carlos Beltran	24	2001	24
13	Alex Gordon	23	2011	27
14	Al Cowens	23	1977	25
15	Carlos Beltran	22	1999	22
16	Bo Jackson	22	1987	24
17	Amos Otis	22	1978	31
18	Jeff Francoeur	20	2011	27
19	Mark Quinn	20	2000	26

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Now if Bo hadn't got hurt, if Beltran and Dye hadn't got traded and if Tartabull had resigned then, of course, this list would look completely different. But that's only four players, and in a franchise that has accumulated 40+ seasons, that's not much. Consider this; there have been just as many 20+ home run seasons by infielder/DH's in their 30's than by outfielders total. There have been 19 of those too, only four of which were by George Brett. (I count Jose Guillen's 2008 in this category since he hit half his home runs and did most of his damage as a DH.)

What that means I couldn't tell you, other than when an older player is signed or traded for, he more than likely was an infielder or DH (examples would include Gary Gaetti, Jeff King, Chili Davis and Jay Bell). There have been less than 30 seasons in team history where a 30+ year old outfielder came to the plate 400 or more times, and half of those were courtesy of Amos Otis, Willie Wilson and Jim Eisenreich.

I can tell you're wondering what this has to do with Alex Gordon and I'm about to tell you. He just turned 28 years old and is close to entering the downward slope of his career. Now his body type and offensive approach suggests he will probably be productive into early 30's but I don't believe he'll have more than a couple seasons as dominating as last year's. What I'm saying is that if he doesn't come down on his contract demands, and ends up walking after the 2013 season, I may be ok with that.

Joe Posnanski wrote a wonderfully informative article on WAR and aging a few days ago, which I thought I would apply to the Royals. I'm going to stray from his methodology a bit and also include home runs and OPS+. And of course, as always, I'll be using baseball-reference.com's WAR.

We'll start with WAR. Now where Poz used 6.0 as the floor I'm going to use 4.0, which I think is still a mighty fine season, plus I wasn't looking for MVP candidates like he was. There have been 47 4+ WAR seasons in Royals history and 31 of those came by players between the ages of 23 and 27.

Of the 14 seasons by players 28 and older Brett accounted for five of them (man, that guy really skews the results of any Royals offensive historical search). By KC standards Gordon is at the early stages of being past his prime. Like with home runs, trades and free agency also affect this chart. But those things happen and will continue to happen.

For OPS+ I looked at all the players who were at or above 120 with a minimum 500 plate appearances.

Ages 24-26 is the magic number here but there is basically no difference between the ages of 27 and 31, which incidentally would be Gordon's age at the completion of a four year extension. The best two seasons of Danny Tartabull's career came at 28 (171) and 29 (152, as a Yankee). He only had one season above 120 in his 30's and that was at the age of 30 (134). Remember, Gordon will be in KC at least through his age 29 season. Just something to think about. Brett's best season came at 27 (203) when he won the MVP in 1980. From 28-31, though, he was no slouch as he posted a 142 OPS+, which is close to the 140 Gordon put up last year.

I mentioned home runs above and will finish with it so I guess we've come full circle. There have been 63 20+ seasons which is not that impressive or all that important, but I thought I'd include it anyway.

Unsurprisingly 25-27 year olds highlight this chart as well, but like with OPS+, it remains fairly steady among 28-31 year olds. Steve Balboni was 28 years old when he set the franchise record with 36 home runs and then followed that up with 29 at 24 the next two seasons. Gordon has a far more disciplined approach than Balboni so, you know, if Bye Bye can do it then so can A1.

My preference is for Dayton Moore to keep Gordon around through his age 31 season as I believe he'll be productive so long as he's healthy. I think Moore will find a way to make it happen without overpaying but if he can't, and Gordon does indeed walk after next season, I'm not so sure that'll be something to lose sleep over.

A1 Looking For 6/80

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 15:13:00 +0000

That, my friends, is a ginormous gap. For some deeper analysis check out both Craig Brown and David Lesky's take on this bit of fiscal nonsense. (Craig gets 25 Polk Points for working in a John Hinckly Jr. reference. That's how that works, right?)

The Mendoza Lines

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 03:12:00 +0000

In my last post I listed Luis Mendoza as a longshot to make the rotation, and I believe that's certainly true. His two late season starts - in which he allowed just 2 earned runs in 14.2 innings - has some people convinced there's something there. Spoiler alert, there's not. His 4.3 SO/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in those two starts were pretty much identical to the rest of his career (4.6 SO/9 and 3.5 BB/9), those are numbers that are not exactly conducive to sustained success.

Since 2000 there have been 21 seasons in which a starting pitcher had a 4.5 or lower SO/9 and a 3.0 or higher BB/9 (minimum 162 IP). Of those, only three managed an ERA+ of 100 or higher - Kirk Rueter (108) and Dustin Hermanson (101) in 2000, and Jason Marquis (103) in 2005.

Here's the entire list, notice the two Royals and ask yourself if you want to witness a season like those again.

Rk	Player	ERA+	SO/9	BB/9	IP	Year	Tm
1	Kirk Rueter	108	3.47	3.03	184.0	2000	SFG
2	Jason Marquis	103	4.35	3.00	207.0	2005	STL
3	Dustin Hermanson	101	4.27	3.41	198.0	2000	MON
4	Darren Oliver	99	4.39	3.04	180.1	2003	COL
5	Livan Hernandez	96	3.96	3.48	204.1	2007	ARI
6	Pat Rapp	95	4.34	3.76	170.0	2001	ANA
7	Tom Glavine	93	4.03	3.24	183.1	2003	NYM
8	Scott Schoeneweis	93	4.13	3.55	170.0	2000	ANA
9	Josh Fogg	93	4.14	3.33	178.1	2004	PIT
10	Kirk Rueter	92	2.65	3.12	190.1	2004	SFG
11	Kirk Rueter	91	3.82	3.04	195.1	2001	SFG
12	Jimmy Anderson	90	3.88	3.62	206.1	2001	PIT
13	Steve Trachsel	88	4.32	4.26	164.2	2006	NYM
14	Jimmy Haynes	85	3.97	4.52	199.1	2000	MIL
15	Damian Moss	83	4.29	5.00	165.2	2003	TOT
16	Mark Redman	82	4.10	3.40	167.0	2006	KCR
17	Kenny Rogers	79	4.25	3.68	173.2	2008	DET
18	Mike Hampton	78	3.73	4.58	178.2	2002	COL
19	Brad Penny	77	3.67	3.07	181.2	2011	DET
20	Jason Marquis	74	4.45	3.47	194.1	2006	STL
21	Jose Lima	63	4.27	3.25	168.2	2005	KCR

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

A couple good starts is one thing, doing it over the course of a full season is far more challenging.

Rotation Thoughts Redux

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 03:20:00 +0000

I last wrote about rotation options back in October, however, now that we know the candidates I thought I'd revisit the subject. There are reportedly twelve pitchers that will get looks in spring training but I think a more conservative number is probably seven.

Locks

Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, Bruce Chen

Who is Luke Hochevar? After five seasons and 585 innings we still don't know. For the second year in a row he posted an 87 ERA+, now that's a cringe worthy for sure, but he also had a career best 1.283 WHIP. His second half ERA (3.52) fueled talk that he finally figured out this thing called pitching. He'll likely front the rotation again but if he doesn't start off strong I don't see him making 30 starts.

Sanchez at his best does a pretty mean Gio Gonzalez impersonation. The two seasons before last year's injury filled disaster he posted a 113 ERA+ in 356.2 innings. Like Gonzalez, he brought along a lot of strikeouts (9.6 SO/) and a lot of walks (4.6 BB/9). If healthy he should strike out more batters than any left-hander in franchise history. Should KC fall out of contention before the deadline Sanchez probably will get dealt. He'll be a considerably more attractive option to a contender than Francis and Chen were last year.

I'm still not convinced that bringing back Chen was in the organization's best interest. At this point he is what he is, which I guess is a crafty lefty. What he's not, though, is a durable innings eater with upside.

On The Bubble

Felipe Paulino, Danny Duffy, Aaron Crow, Everett Teaford

I was tempted to put Paulino in the locks category, based solely on his 100 ERA+ and 8.6 SO/9, but then I remembered I don't run the Royals and they sometimes do strange things. Things like watch Robinson Tejeda dominate in 6 late starts (2.84 ERA, 9.1 SO/9) in 2009 and then fail to give him an extended look in 2010, or any look at all. Even while they managed to run Kyle Davies out there every fifth day (32 starts, 78 ERA+), for whatever reason.

I'm not worried about Duffy's control issues being a problem this year. While I believe he should make the rotation out of spring training a return trip to Omaha wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for his development.

Last April I strongly believed that Crow needed to be stretched out and placed in the rotation. That was then, this is now. I'd be all for Crow starting at the expense of Chen, but at the expense of Duffy? Not so much. Not moving Crow out of the bullpen last year was a short-sighted move. They weren't competing for a division title so it made no sense to talk about him starting in 2012 without giving him a few starts before the season ended.

Speaking of short-sighted, Teaford was a rotation candidate last year until Moore went out and signed Francis and Chen. A Teaford with 30 starts under his belt would be more of a benefit to the 2012 team than a one year and done Francis. He likely will inherit Adcock's long relief/spot starter role this year, which I think is a good use of his talent.

Longshots

Mike Montgomery, Nathan Adcock, Luis Mendoza

Montgomery struggled for the first time as a pro last year and should return to Omaha to start the season. He's just 22 years old and still an elite level talent. There's absolutely no harm in letting him return to his dominant ways and then promoting him when Chen inevitably goes on the disabled list.

Adcock performed admirably in his long relief/spot starter role last year. As a Rule 5 pick most people thought he'd be hidden in the back of the pen, but there he was in a close game on opening day. Given the full bullpen in KC I imagine Adcock will begin the season in Omaha.

Once upon a time a guy with a 4.5 SO/9 could survive in the big leagues, but unfortunately for Mendoza, that time is not now. I really don't care where he begins the season as long as it's not in KC.

Not Mentioned

Sean O'Sullivan, Vin Mazzaro

Yeah.

Despite all the lip service given to Crow's candidacy I don't think Ned Yost wants him in the rotation, and I don't think he will be. Here's my full prediction:

Hochevar
Sanchez
Chen
Paulino
Duffy

How Many Runs Would A Lineup Full Of Situational Hitters Score Per Game?

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 02:49:00 +0000

After reading an article that begged to be mocked and made fun of, I decided I'm not going to do any of that, mainly because I suspect that was the writer's intent. Instead I thought I would test his belief on how vital situational hitters are to a lineup, because they are above the silly overrated things like getting on base and hitting for power. This is an exercise in pointlessness I realize but I'm doing it just to satisfy my own morbid curiosity.

The first thing I needed to decide was which situational hitter's stats to use, but lucky for me Kansas City just so happens to have one of the game's most valuable players at hitting ground balls, Chris Getz. For the purposes of this exercise I'm going to ignore that he lost his job to a rookie last year.

Using Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis tool I punched in Getz's on-base percentage (.309) and slugging percentage (.283) since joining the Royals. Are you ready for the magic?

2.979 runs per game. 483 runs per year.

To put it in a perspective we can all relate to, the Royals scored 700+ runs all four seasons in which they have lost 100 games or more.

When a player's entire skill set is situational hitting then that player is merely a placeholder until a better player comes along. So let's not act like they're just as important as the guys who are actually producing, okay?