Royally Speaking

Your Yearly Reminder That Freddie Patek Was An Opening Day Beast

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sat, 30 Mar 2013 20:58:00 +0000

Freddie Patek may have only posted a 78 OPS+ in his time with the Royals, but on Opening Day, he came to play.

Rk	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	PA	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	SB
1	1971-04-06	KCR	CAL	W 4-1	5	5	0	2	2	0	0	0
2	1973-04-06	KCR	CAL	L 2-3	4	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
3	1974-04-05	KCR	MIN	L 4-6	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	1
4	1975-04-07	KCR	CAL	L 2-3	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
5	1976-04-09	KCR	CHW	L 0-4	3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
6	1977-04-07	KCR	DET	W 7-4	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
7	1978-04-08	KCR	CLE	L 5-8	4	3	1	2	1	1	3	0
8	1979-04-05	KCR	TOR	W 11-2	4	4	1	4	0	0	1	0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Patek hit .367/.424/.600 overall on Opening Day in 33 plate appearances.

A New Beginning

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sun, 02 Dec 2012 17:54:00 +0000

I never made an official announcement but at the beginning of October I began doing my primary writing at Kings of Kauffman. I never posted here enough to make this a blog people would check on a regular basis. Site attendance thrived when I posted regularly but that's not something I was able to do on a consistent basis. About a year ago I started thinking that my four to six posts a month would be better served elsewhere. Such few posts work better on a multi-staffed blog rather than one with a single writer. There was a humorous bidding war on twitter for my services (hello, ego boost) but I ultimately chose KoK because Mike Engel is one of my favorite people in the Royals blogosphere and because he first asked me to join his crew a couple years ago.

Now that's not to say I'm turning the lights out here. I've invested too much time in this blog to completely abandon it. While I won't cross post I will still do something here every now and then (three paragraph rants, play index oddities, etc.). I don't expect anyone to check back to see if I posted something new but if you follow me on twitter or Google+ you'll know when I do.

I started this blog in January of 2008 because I felt the Royals were about to turn the corner but five seasons later they're no closer to competing than they were when I clicked publish for the first time. Despite that, I kept writing, because it turned out to be something I really enjoyed. For the most part I count what I've done here as a success - I've met some really cool people, made a couple radio appearances and wrote a Sunday column for a newspaper. Those are things I never imagined happening when I started all this on a whim. Thank you to everyone that read something here, I really did appreciate your support.

With the sappy stuff out of the way here's a quick rundown of what I've been up to lately:

On October 5th I wrote why Kevin Seitzer was The Fall Guy and why he shouldn't have fell alone.
On October 10th I offered up The Top Age 26 Seasons In Royals History (Freddie Patek alert).
On October 13th I had a few thoughts about the playoff production of Carlos Beltran and Raul Ibanez in a post unimaginatively titled Carlos And Raul.
On October 16th I took a look back at the Royals' Historically Mediocre 2012 rotation.
On October 23rd I searched play index and found Seven Eric Hosmer Comps Who Rebounded At Age 23 (list includes four Hall of Famers).
On November 7th I wrote about Jeff Francoeur and Wil Myers in Keeping A Good Man Down.
On November 15th I compared starting pitching performances the last six years to every six year period in team history in Year Six Series: The Rotation.
On November 24th I claimed rotation questions are the same and Only The Names Have Changed.
On November 28th it was the offense's turn in in Year Six Series: The Hitters.

Treading Water While Watching Others Swim

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Fri, 19 Oct 2012 21:16:00 +0000

Luke Hochevar's Place In Royals History

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Mon, 01 Oct 2012 15:22:00 +0000

I was previously convinced that Luke Hochevar was coming back for the 2013 but now I'm not so sure. He finished the season with a 9.56 ERA in 6 September starts (32 innings) and much of that was done after the team famously gave him a vote of confidence. He ended the year with a 72 ERA+ and if you're wondering where that ranks in team history, let me show you. Of the 119 times a Royals pitcher has thrown 162+ innings our Luke is sitting at #2.

Rk	Player	ERA+	IP	Year	Age
1	Jose Lima	63	168.2	2005	32
2	Luke Hochevar	72	185.1	2012	28
3	Brian Bannister	75	182.2	2008	27
4	Rich Gale	76	181.2	1979	25
5	Zack Greinke	76	183.0	2005	21

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

If you're an rWAR kind of guy it's more of the same:

Rk	Player	WAR	IP	Year
1	Jose Lima	-1.8	168.2	2005
2	Rich Gale	-1.7	181.2	1979
3	Luke Hochevar	-1.6	185.1	2012
4	Larry Gura	-1.0	168.2	1984
5	Brian Anderson	-0.6	166.0	2004

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Depending on what floats your boat he had the second or third worst season by a pitcher who lasted the entire season in the rotation. It gets worse. Did you know that in Royals history 18 pitchers have tossed 750 career innings? You probably already know that Hochevar has the lowest ERA+ in that group but did you also know that he's the only one below 100? It's true. There have been worse pitchers to suit up in Royals blue but they weren't allowed to pitch that many innings. Because they were terrible.

Rk	Player	ERA+	IP
1	Luke Hochevar	79	771.0
2	Paul Splittorff	101	2554.2
3	Dick Drago	101	1134.0
4	Steve Busby	105	1060.2
5	Jeff Suppan	105	864.2
6	Al Fitzmorris	106	1098.0
7	Dennis Leonard	107	2187.0
8	Larry Gura	107	1701.1
9	Tom Gordon	108	1149.2
10	Mark Gubicza	110	2218.2
11	Buddy Black	111	977.2
12	Marty Pattin	112	825.2
13	Charlie Leibrandt	116	1257.0
14	Zack Greinke	116	1108.0
15	Bret Saberhagen	128	1660.1
16	Kevin Appier	130	1843.2
17	Jeff Montgomery	138	849.1
18	Dan Quisenberry	160	920.1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

I get that they've stuck with him this long because they are still trying to justify his draft status. But that's hilarious to me because they've not attempted to do the same with Aaron Crow. Hochevar is who he is at this point and it would be the height of silliness to not only bring him back but to give him a raise in the process. The 5 million dollars he may make next year could and should be used elsewhere in a rotation upgrade. I hope Dayton Moore is on board with this thinking. It was easy to spin the "new Luke" last winter after he finished 2011 on a positive note but this time such a claim would be a tougher sell.

I'm probably the last Royals blogger to weigh in on David Glass' comments about spending money to fix the rotation. That's great, if he means it, but I wonder if Moore is willing to spend, because I have my doubts. His earlier comments to first look internally didn't inspire me with confidence. Bringing back Jeremy Guthrie is only a rotation upgrade if you ignore the fact that he's in the current rotation. Sure a whole season would be nice but there are still four big question marks that must be addressed. If more than one of Hochevar/Chen/Smith/Mendoza open 2013 as a starting pitcher then I think you can kiss contention goodbye. Don't even waste your breath saying hello.

Here's how I'd like the 2013 rotation to look:
1. Newcomer via trade or free agency
2. Newcomer via trade or free agency
3. Guthrie
4. Jake Odorizzi
5. Chen/Mendoza/Smith/Crow

There's also the significant difference between spending and spending wisely. If Moore does decide to dabble in the free agent market let's not forget that he once gave Brett Tomko 3 million dollars. I hated that signing immediately and it's one that I feel hasn't drawn enough criticism. Tomko was coming off a 2007 season in which he put a 77 ERA+, and was about to turn 35 years old. He was predictably terrible and was released in June after posting a 62 ERA+ in 60.2 innings. A year later Moore gave Horacio Ramirez 1.8 million to compete for a rotation spot. Luckily he only made 1 start but was so bad overall (75 ERA+, 1.67 WHIP) that he too was released in June (He only made 1 start because Moore later brought in Sidney '60 ERA+' Ponson. Yeah, that actually happened). And of course there's the 2 year, 9 million deal he gave Chen last winter that has worked out so wonderfully.

It's great that Glass is willing to spend but if Moore plans on perusing the clearance rack again then I fail to see the point. It's not an upgrade if the pitchers you bring are just as terrible as the ones they're replacing. If Moore interpreted Glass' comments as a warning shot that his time is short then he may go hard after an Edwin Jackson, Anibal Sanchez or Dan Haren (if he is indeed available). I think it's more likely, though, that we suffer through another winter of Jair Jurrjens and John Lannan rumors before Moore overpays for a pitcher that is statistically underwhelming.

Odorizzi

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Mon, 17 Sep 2012 19:02:00 +0000

With just a few weeks left in the season the Royals finally decided to call up Jake Odorizzi (or Ody, as he's soon to be called by Ned Yost). The 22 year old right-hander had a successful season splitting time between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha.

Year	Tm	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	BB	SO	WHIP	H/9	BB/9	SO/9
2012	2 Teams	15	5	3.03	25	145.1	50	135	1.252	8.2	3.1	8.4
2012	Northwest Arkansas	4	2	3.32	7	38.0	10	47	0.974	6.4	2.4	11.1
2012	Omaha	11	3	2.93	18	107.1	40	88	1.351	8.8	3.4	7.4

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

But now that he's got the call when will he get the ball? From the article linked above:

“He won’t start against any contending clubs,” Yost said. “We’ve got two series against Cleveland. We might start him at the end of this week here in one of those games against Cleveland.”

Well there you go. In a misguided and hilarious attempt to protect the integrity of the Al Central race Yost has decided it wouldn't be right to start Odorizzi against the White Sox and the Tigers. It's hilarious and misguided because of two pitchers he will start against them - Bruce Chen (76 ERA+) and Luke Hochevar (76 ERA+).

Odorizzi will make his first start September 23rd against the Indians. Waiting until Sunday means his next start will fall on September 28th, also against the Indians. (Of course that's if he gets a second start, this is the Royals we're talking about.) A possible third and final start would fall on the season's last day against the Tigers, but if neither Chicago or Detroit has taken care of business by then, Odorizzi would presumably get bumped.

It's difficult to evaluate players in September because of expanded rosters, so you take such evaluations for what they're worth, but if I had a choice between sending Odorizzi against teams battling for first place or one battling for fourth, well, I know which I'd choose. It's disappointing that Yost feels differently.

**********
I made a guest appearance on the most recent Pine Tar Podcast. We talked a little about the year thus far and about what to expect this off season. I had a great time talking to Clint and David so be sure to check that out.

Bringing Back Hochevar

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Tue, 11 Sep 2012 15:46:00 +0000

The first two paragraphs of Bob Dutton's latest column will not be a pretty sight to those of you hoping to see Luke Hochevar non-tendered or traded this winter:

Let there be no doubt: the Royals remain bullish in their belief that right-hander Luke Hochevar can be a productive cornerstone in their rotation for years to come despite his ongoing inconsistencies in a disappointing season.

General manager Dayton Moore dismisses the suggestion the Royals might walk away from Hochevar, who is again eligible for arbitration, after the season. Manager Ned Yost barks “absolutely” when asked if Hochevar can be part of a championship rotation.

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/09/10/3807643/royals-are-convinced-hochevar.html#storylink=cpy

I think it's safe to say that the Royals front office learned nothing from the Kyle Davies fiasco. They complimented Davies' talent at every turn, and gave him every opportunity to succeed, but the results never matched his stuff. Davies had a 77 career ERA+ when Dayton Moore finally gave up on the right-hander. 77, coincidentally, is Hochevar's ERA+ this year. To show how little he's come, in his first full season, back in 2008, Hochevar posted a 78 ERA+.

He gets dogged for being inconsistent but that's not exactly true. He's never had an ERA+ above 87 in any season, so you see, he is consistent, consistently bad. Davies, to his credit, actually hit 107 once. The only good thing I have left to say about Hochevar is that he is a reliable starter. You can be sure he'll take the mound every fifth, and there is some value in that, maybe not much, but some. The problem is he's not reliably good and has no business anywhere near the front of a rotation.

The main problem with the 2012 team has been the starting pitching. Bruce Chen is under contract for next year and, like Hochevar, is also sitting on a 77 ERA+. Bringing both back is a clear signal that Moore has no interest in seriously upgrading the rotation. The only pitcher in the current rotation that I want to see in next year's is Jeremy Guthrie and he may be pitching himself out of the Royals price range. It's time to part ways with Hochevar and wish him luck in the National League.
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Brett Myers has had a solid year but he has been absolutely demolished by the Royals. In 5 appearances totaling 3.1 innings they have hit .720/.704/.920 against him. He's faced 27 Royals, 18 have got hits and 12 have scored (32.40 ERA). His game logs tell the humorous tale.

Date	Tm	Opp	IP	H	R	ER	BB
2012-06-18	HOU	KCR	0.2	8	5	5	0
2012-08-08	CHW	KCR	1.0	0	0	0	0
2012-08-18	CHW	KCR	1.0	4	4	4	0
2012-09-08	CHW	KCR	0.1	3	1	1	0
2012-09-09	CHW	KCR	0.1	3	2	2	1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool

I don't understand why Robin Ventura brought him into a scoreless game in the 10th inning Sunday, but to be honest, I don't understand a lot of the things Ventura has done this year.
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Don't look now but Johnny Giavotella is starting to hit. He's batting .298/.353/.404 over his last 14 games. In an even smaller sample size he's batting .318/.423/.500 in September (7 games). And Sunday he became just the 12th Royal in history to walk 3 times and steal 2 bases in a single game.

Rk	Player	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	BB	SB
1	Joe Foy	1969-05-30 (2)	KCR	NYY	L 4-5	3	2
2	Freddie Patek	1975-04-15	KCR	OAK	W 4-3	3	2
3	Amos Otis	1975-05-01	KCR	CAL	W 11-10	3	4
4	Amos Otis	1975-05-25	KCR	BAL	W 9-1	3	3
5	Hal McRae	1976-06-01	KCR	OAK	W 5-2	3	2
6	Amos Otis	1976-06-20	KCR	CLE	L 8-11	3	2
7	Frank White	1979-04-27	KCR	CLE	W 15-7	3	2
8	Amos Otis	1979-06-03	KCR	MIL	W 6-1	3	2
9	Lonnie Smith	1985-07-01	KCR	OAK	L 3-4	3	2
10	Bill Pecota	1988-09-25	KCR	CHW	L 5-6	3	2
11	Willie Wilson	1988-09-25	KCR	CHW	L 5-6	3	2
12	Jay Bell	1997-09-27	KCR	CHW	W 10-4	3	2
13	Carlos Beltran	2004-04-20	KCR	CLE	W 15-5	3	3
14	Coco Crisp	2009-05-05	KCR	CHW	W 8-7	4	2
15	Johnny Giavotella	2012-09-09	KCR	CHW	W 2-1	3	2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

His major league career has thus far been a disappointment, so even though the sample sizes are indeed small, they are still encouraging.

Chen'd

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 16:22:00 +0000

Bruce Chen's latest masterpiece sent me to baseball-reference.com's play index to see where his chentastic outing places him in the annals of Royals history. The Chencinnati Kid gave up 3 home runs yesterday which means:

He has now allowed 3 home runs in 8 of his starts as a Royal. This places him in a third place tie with Brian Bannister for the most in KC history. Dennis Leonard (10) and Kevin Appier (9) top the list but Chen has achieved this feat in 9.1% of his starts. That is much higher than Leonard (3.3%) and Appier (3.2%).
He has become the fourth Royal to have four 3+ HR games in a season. Darrell May (2004), Paul Byrd (2002) and Chris Haney (1996) comprise the rest of the club. Unless he's shut down he'll have the opportunity to put up a five spot. C'mon Chen!
He became the seventh Royal, and first since Bannister in 2008, to give up 3+ home runs in consecutive starts. Three bad pitches in his next outing and he'll be the first to allow 3+ in three straight starts.
The 31 home runs he's allowed this season is the eighth most in Royals history. May's club record of 38 set back in 2004 is in serious jeopardy.

Stop the chensanity, please!

Best Finishes In Royals History

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Mon, 03 Sep 2012 15:03:00 +0000

If you're dreaming of an epic finish that will see the Royals to an 81-81 record, stop, and dream of this instead. They need to go 21-8 to finish at .500 and history says that is not going to happen.

Here are the best 29 game finishes in team history and as you can see they've only hit 21+ once.

Year	W	L
1977	23	6
1978	20	9
1975	19	10
2008	19	10
1984	18	11
1987	18	11
2011	17	12
1985	16	13
1996	16	13
1969	15	14
1971	15	14
1983	15	14
1986	15	14
1993	15	14

A 16-13 finish will give them a final record of 76-86, which would be the best of the Dayton Moore era. Year six.

The Curse Of Lew Ford

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Mon, 03 Sep 2012 13:34:00 +0000

Not many people are aware of what transpired on September 9, 2000 but the fate of two franchises were turned on that date. That what the day the Minnesota Twins acquired Lew Ford.

Before the Ford trade the Royals more than held their own against the Twins. From 1969-2000 KC went 232-222 against Minnesota, but since, have gone just 81-138. Even though Ford wouldn't make his debut until 2003 the trade paid immediate dividends. After going 5-7 against the Royals in 2000 the Twins won 13 of the 19 times they met in 2001.

On June 16, 2003 Ford faced the Royals for the first time. He replaced Torii Hunter in the 7th inning and, of course, doubled in his first at bat. He would hit a 3 run home run in the 8th inning and add a walk in the 9th. The Royals were up 8-0 when Ford entered the game but wound up needing to win the game in walk off fashion. He hit .417/.533/.750 in the four game set and was well on his way to becoming my least favorite player.

For his career, which is somehow still going (screw you Baltimore!), Ford has put up a .295/.377/.481 line against the Royals. I wasn't shocked to learn that he has more home runs against the Royals than any other team (ditto runs and RBIs). That sounded about right.

The Twins are happily chugging along in last place this year but the unholy Ford taint that remains has allowed them to go 10-5 against the Royals. If you want to blame organizational philosophy, fundamentals, players, coaches or whatever else floats your boat for Kansas City's weak play against the Twinkies, then fine, do that. I blame Lew Ford.

He is my Newman.

Bruce Chen: Rolling With The Greats (and Mark Redman)

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Fri, 31 Aug 2012 16:09:00 +0000

I was 16 years old when I first became suspicious that wins weren't the best way to evaluate a pitcher's season. The year was 1987 and Nolan Ryan, one of my favorite players (still), led the league in earned run average and strikeouts but finished with just an 8-16 record. He also led the league in H/9 and SO/9, and if his record had been reversed, he might have won the Cy Young award instead of finishing fifth. (Because no NL starting pitcher won 20 games that year we live in a world where Steve Bedrosian is a Cy Young award winner and Dan Quisenberry isn't.)

Bruce Chen, as you know, recently won his 10th game of the year marking the third straight season where he's reached double digits in victories. It was semi-celebrated. I suspect it would have been a bigger deal a decade or two ago but the win climate has shifted and people seem to know better. It's also still not particularly impressive but 10 wins will lead the Royals in wins a lot of years. Anyway it got me wondering about similar seasons in Royals history, seasons where a left-handed starter won 10+ games with an ERA+ under 90. I wasn't shocked that only five seasons popped up but I was surprised with the players on it, well, a couple of them at least. Two Royals Hall of Famers and Mark Redman, who sadly was the team's All Star representative the year he achieved this feat.

Rk	Player	Year	W	ERA+	IP
1	Bruce Chen	2012	10	81	154.1
2	Mark Redman	2006	11	82	167.0
3	Larry Gura	1984	12	77	168.2
4	Larry Gura	1983	11	83	200.1
5	Paul Splittorff	1976	11	89	158.2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Two right-handers have produced this type of season - Luke Hochevar last year, and another Royals Hall of Famer, Dennis Leonard, in 1982. Seeing Gura and Splittorf on there, and Leonard for that matter, has me predicting that someday, somewhere, a Royals fan is going to believe that Chen should be in the Royals Hall of Fame.

Dayton Moore jumped the gun last winter before allowing the free agent market to play out and signed Chen to a two year contract, so the gum chewing lefty will be back next season. And since he'll likely lead the team in wins he'll enter spring training a virtual lock for a rotation spot (not everybody knows better). So the question is, which Chen will show up?

In some aspects he has been better than he was the last two seasons when he posted ERA+'s above 100. Chen is sporting a career low 2.1 BB/9 which in turn has helped him to a career best 3.11 SO/BB. He's issued just 35 unintentional walks in 28 starts. Even though he's 35 years old a bounce back season next year isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Since 1901 there have been nine seasons, not counting Chen's 2012, in which a 35 year old lefty posted an ERA+ in the 78-89 range (min. 150 IP). You may be encouraged to know that over half of those were at 100 or higher the next year. You may be discouraged to know that half of those that were as bad or worse at age 36 played for the Royals (Gura and McWilliams).

Rk	Player	35	36
1	Rube Marquard	78	106
2	Herb Pennock	79	100
3	Al Hollingsworth	80	82
4	Joe Nuxhall	89	109
5	Jim Rooker	88	85
6	Geoff Zahn	82	109
7	Larry Gura	83	77
8	Larry McWilliams	88	41
9	Buddy Black	84	110

So yes, I'm saying there's a chance.

Gio Is Free But Now He Has To Hit

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 02:41:00 +0000

Before I get to Johnny Giavotella I want to spend a little time on Chris Getz. In a season shortened by injuries Getz put together the nicest year of his career posting career highs in batting average, slugging percentage, OPS+ and bWAR. I still don't believe he's a long term option at second base but he was decent enough this year that I didn't mind his presence in the lineup, especially when the other option was the on-base deficient Yuniesky Betancourt. There's something incredibly ironic that Getz was hurt while bunting since that's a skill he has mastered and he is, of course, mistake free. It's like the baseball gods anger at Alex Gordon being removed from the leadoff spot was directed at him instead of Ned Yost.

Getz's injury opened the door for Gio, finally. He is supposed to be given five or six starts a week for the remainder of the year, depending on production. Given how long he stuck with Yuni, and that Jeff Francoeur continues to play right field every day, Yost's definition of production may differ from the rest of humanity. While I applaud the decision to let Gio play regularly, let's be real, this is a decision that should have been made in March.

Gio possesses far more offensive upside than Yuni and Getz so this would have been the ideal year to let him make 150 starts and then decide in the off season if he was the right long term option. Except Moore and Yost couldn't overcome their man crushes on the weak hitting duo so Gio was banished to Omaha to allegedly work on his defense. I say allegedly because I think it's strange to criticize a player for the his defensive shortcomings and then turn around and stick a statue at his position four times a week.

Without a full year's worth of data to examine Moore and company will have to determine Gio's future based on a couple partial seasons. The Royals, due to their short sightedness, remain their own worst enemy. Whatever Gio does the rest of the year will fall under the small sample size category, just like last year, so it'll be difficult to get a good read on his ability to consistently hit big league pitching.

Small sample size or not, to make any sort of positive impression Gio is going to need to hit and that's something he has yet to do in Kansas City. He's not off to great a start. He's only hitting .167/.167/.167 since his recall and is at .207/.242/.241 for the season. He has absolutely crushed AAA pitching (.337/.397/.477, 921 PAs) and has nothing left to prove in Omaha. Similar production as last year and he could wind up with the dreaded 4A label, unfairly or not. If that happens Moore may go outside the organization to fill the second base hole but I could also see him rolling the dice on Christian Colon.

Last year as a 23 year old rookie Gio hit .247/.273/.376 in 187 plate appearances. Since 1901 seven players have had similar rookie seasons at the age of 23. Similar as defined by me: 150-200 plate appearances, 70-80 OPS+. Only two of those players had successful major league careers, which of course means nothing where Gio is concerned, but you guys know how much I love comps.

Player	Year	PA	OPS+	Career OPS+	Career brWAR
Eduardo Perez	1993	192	76	97	0.1
Nelson Liriano	1987	176	72	85	2.1
Henry Cotto	1984	160	74	84	3.3
Kevin McReynolds	1983	155	74	115	27.3
Spud Davis	1928	188	76	110	25.5
John Monroe	1921	173	79	79	0.0
Jim Stephens	1907	193	73	73	3.5

McReynolds had a solid career but is unpopular in Kansas City because of his lackadaisical attitude towards baseball. He admitted early on his career that it was just a hobby and that he'd rather be hunting or fishing. It makes you wonder what kind of numbers he could have put up if he had shown a greater commitment to the sport.

Despite limited production Perez, Liriano and Cotto all managed to top 2000 plate appearances in their respective careers. I could see Gio also lasting as a utility guy but he'd have to learn to play a passable third base and probably left field.

Davis was a catcher who had his best season in 1933 when he hit .349/.395/.473 (135 OPS+, 4.4 bWAR). There aren't enough guys nicknamed Spud in this world.

If It's Not Broke, Yost It!

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Fri, 17 Aug 2012 13:48:00 +0000

Last year Ned Yost made a move so bold and unexpected that it was universally applauded. He inserted one of his best hitters, Alex Gordon, into the leadoff spot. And it was beautiful. Yost generally manages how you'd expect a 1980's catcher to manage, so as you can imagine, this outside the box creativity was at odds with his conventional nature.

Last night, for some bizarre reason, Yost decided to move Gordon into the third spot for the remainder of the year (unless he slumps, then of course he'll be dropped to sixth). Well we know the reason:

“We knew Gordy wasn’t a prototypical leadoff hitter, but he’s a guy who has high on-base (percentage) and puts the ball in play,” Yost said. “But we also think he’s going to be a run-producer. He doesn’t really get the opportunity to produce runs from the one hole.”

By run-producer Yost means RBIs, obviously. It's unfortunately apparent that he's unaware of the role on-base percentage plays in producing runs. Spoiler alert, it's important. My biggest gripe with the move is that to fill one hole he created another. Jarrod Dyson (.330 OBP), Chris Getz (.317) and Lorenzo Cain (.312) will take turns making outs at the top of the lineup. The Royals broadcast crew can name drop Kenny Lofton all they want but that's not going to make Dyson a better hitter. And Getz? Really? I'm glad Yost is comfortable with him batting leadoff but I think it's absurd to even entertain the notion.

The idea that the best hitters should get the most at bats isn't revolutionary or witchcraft, it's common sense, and it's absolutely amazing that a man that has spent decades in pro ball can't grasp such a simple premise.

The Betancourt Legacy

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Wed, 08 Aug 2012 00:43:00 +0000

I'll never forget the day I learned Dayton Moore brought Yuniesky Betancourt back into the fold. Marlon Brando's death scene in Apocalypse Now best summed up my reaction. Of course you know by now that Yuni has been designated for assignment and has played his last game as a Royal (hopefully). The reason for the DFA wasn't due to his extreme lack of production but because he was upset that his playing time had been reduced. Now Yuni has taken some heat but I think this one's on Yost.

True he was signed to be an utility infielder but few people doubted that's how it actually would play out. In spring training Yost claimed Yuni was in the mix for the everyday second base job. So right away he had reasons to believe he would see regular playing time. And that's pretty much what happened as he played four or so games a week until just recently. He never embraced the role of the utility infielder because he was never given the role of the utility infielder.

The signing itself deserved and received widespread criticism, here and everywhere else. It especially looked bad when it turned out there was a cheaper and better choice already in house. You don't change a culture of losing by releasing players like Yuni, you change it by not signing them in the first place.

You can make a credible argument that Yuni was the worst of all the players who have received 1000 plate appearances in Royals history. Actually I'm going to make that argument right now.

Rk	Player	WAR/pos	PA
1	Yuniesky Betancourt	-3.6	1079
2	Jose Guillen	-3.0	1383
3	Brent Mayne	-2.0	2200
4	Ken Harvey	-0.8	1078
5	Onix Concepcion	-0.4	1130
6	Jeff Francoeur	-0.2	1072

I see you there, Frenchy.

Rk	Player	OBP	PA
1	Yuniesky Betancourt	.276	1079
2	Onix Concepcion	.277	1130
3	Buck Martinez	.277	1073
4	Darryl Motley	.281	1401
5	David Howard	.289	1586

So long Yuni, we will remember you always.

Jose Mijares is also no longer a Royal. The Giants claimed him on waivers and Moore elected to simply let him go. ~~I guess he still feels guilty on how he swindled Brian Sabean in the Cabrera/Sanchez trade~~. This created quite the reaction across the internet, but honestly, I really didn't care. I suspect, that Like Jonathan Broxton, Mijares was a flip candidate and when no teams were willing to give up anything for him Moore decided to part with him now rather than non tender him this winter. This allows them to give some other relievers a chance, though I would have preferred someone other than Francisley Bueno getting that first look.

The Small Sample Size Greatness Of Sal Perez

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Fri, 13 Jul 2012 14:34:00 +0000

At some point this season Salvador Perez will likely go into the first slump of his major league career. But before that happens let's see where he - in all his small sample size glory - ranks in Royals history in several stats. I set the minimum plate appearances at 200, because let's face it, anything less would just be silly.

OPS+

Rk	Player	OPS+	PA
1	Danny Tartabull	144	2684
2	Salvador Perez	142	205
3	George Brett	135	11625
4	John Mayberry	132	3753
5	Chili Davis	131	567

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/13/2012.

Only Tartabull's been better. No shame in trailing arguably the greatest right handed hitter in team history. Man, what a year Davis had in his one and only season as a Royal. Actually what a career he had, only once, in 1983, did he have an OPS+ below 100. He received just 3 Hall of Fame votes in 2005. Coincidentally that's the same total Bucky Dent received in 1990.

Batting Average

Rk	Player	BA	PA
1	Salvador Perez	.344	205
2	Scott Podsednik	.310	435
3	Hal Morris	.309	516
4	Jose Offerman	.306	1825
5	Melky Cabrera	.305	706
5	George Brett	.305	11625

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/13/2012.

I don't know how many times I've forgot Morris was a Royal once. He played one season (1998) and was teammates with Jeff King, Terry Pendleton, Shane Mack and Shane Halter. Unsurprisingly, that was a hard team to follow.

On-Base Percentage

Rk	Player	OBP	PA
1	Mike Fiore	.401	511
2	Gregg Zaun	.386	420
3	Chili Davis	.386	567
4	Jose Offerman	.385	1825
5	Kevin Seitzer	.380	3163
6	Danny Tartabull	.376	2684
7	Darrell Porter	.375	2262
8	John Mayberry	.374	3753
9	Wally Joyner	.371	2173
10	Mike Sweeney	.369	5278
11	George Brett	.369	11625
12	Jeremy Giambi	.368	406
13	Jay Bell	.368	660
14	Salvador Perez	.366	205

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/13/2012.

I didn't expect Sal to rank too high here since he's only drawn 7 walks in his career. Fiore hit .274/.420/.428 (138 OPS+) in the franchise's first year. That was his one and only season as a productive player because he hit just .160/.287/.195 (65 OPS+) for the rest of his career. He did that with four teams over three seasons. His 84 walks in 1969 is the 10th highest single season total in team history. Which is kind of sad.

Slugging Percentage

Rk	Player	SLG	PA
1	Salvador Perez	.528	205
2	Danny Tartabull	.518	2684
3	Chili Davis	.509	567
4	Dean Palmer	.505	845
5	Mike Sweeney	.492	5278
6	Raul Ibanez	.492	1527

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/13/2012.

Perez bests Tartabull in the power department, take that Bull!. Jerry Terrell and Dennis Paepke check in with the worst slug at .249. Getz's .297 is 17th worst. Actually tied for 17th with Jason Kendall. Somebody this year (an opposing team's announcer?) stated the Royals hope Perez can be the next Kendall because Kendall was good in KC for so many years. Right now Perez is the anti-Kendall and let's hope it stays that way.

The most surprising thing about Sal's early career numbers is that, other than 102 plate appearances in AAA (.337/.356/.439), he never showed near this much with the bat in the minors. That's not to say he was horrible (or Quintero-esque if you will), he wasn't, but he was mostly known as a defense first catcher with some offensive potential. Why he has had very little trouble with major league pitching is a mystery, unless, of course, you buy Rex Hudler's explanation:

"One of the reasons is big league pitching is more around the plate, they have better ideas how they're pitching up here. In the minor leagues guys are wild. They might have stronger arms and throw harder down there but they don't have a clue where it's going, so it makes it more difficult to hit. When you get to the big leagues, some guys say 'all right, I can hit here, this is a little bit easier'". - Hudler, July 2nd telecast.

The Wonder Dog, folks, he'll be here all year.

National Media Miss The Point

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Tue, 10 Jul 2012 14:06:00 +0000

Full of themselves, and in the mood to moralize, national baseball writers showed just how terrible they can do their job when they set their mind to it. I'm not sure if they were unaware or were just being willfully ignorant about the root cause of the booing Robinson Cano received from the Kansas City crowd during last night's home run derby. Either excuse makes them look bad.

To recap what you already know, Cano said a few weeks ago that he'd select a Royal for the derby, in fact he even called it the "right thing to do". But then he changed his mind, or forgot he said it or lied. That piece of information, however, was noticeably absent from tweet after tweet as writers continuously criticized the crowd. Let's go through a few of my favorites.

Fans are entitled to boo, I suppose. But is this really the way KC fans want the country to view them? - Jon Morosi

Has Morosi ever wondered once in his life how the rest of the country views Kansas City? We'll be fine Jon, thanks for your concern.

#MLB? needs to look at rule change whereby one home player is obligated to be in ?#HRDerby?. Take decision out of captain’s hands. ... Because this sort of booing is not good for the event. - Morosi

This is Morosi not understanding the root cause of the booing. If Cano had never said he'd take a Royal then I doubt anyone in KC would've cared when Billy Butler wasn't picked. A too large contingent of Royals fans have been criticizing Butler for years for not hitting enough home runs. By this time Morosi had been told why fans were booing, but he chose to ignore it because the truth conflicted with the narrative he'd already set in motion. Couldn't turn back now.

For all this oohing and ahhing, Mark Trumbo is the one who took the spot that would've been Billy Butler's. Where are the boos for him? - Jeff Passan

Why would Royals fans boo Trumbo? He didn't do anything wrong. I don't know if he was serious here or trolling but he's so far off point it's not even funny. Passan was the one writer I thought would get it but I guess he was more interested in maintaining his national street cred.

Just because the Royals haven't won anything in a quarter-century doesn't mean the fans deserve something. Isn't the All-Star Game enough? - Passan

Again, not the point of the booing. Instead of hammering on the crowd maybe hold the guy who mislead everybody accountable? Is that too much to ask? Apparently so, because.....

And as for Cano reneging, come on. He's an athlete. Seriously, you hold your athletes to their word? Since when? Athletes lie for a living. - Passan

That seems like a pretty cynical view to hold. Also I'm sure the athletes he covers for a living will be thrilled to learn he holds them in such high regard. For those keeping score at home, booing is a far worse sin than lying in Passan's mind.

sorry kc, no way Billy Butler should be in ?#HRDerby? over @MTrumbo44, @JoeyBats19 or ?#prince? - Jon Heyman

Heyman's cute when he's clueless.

I figured Morosi would have more to say in a column and he didn't disappoint. In this piece he finally acknowledges Cano's part in the story but then quickly forgets it and returns to his narrative.

Royals fans haven’t seen their team reach the playoffs since 1985. They wanted the popular Yankees second baseman to know they were offended by the Butler snub. Cano initially told ESPN that choosing a Royals player would be “the right thing” to do, before apparently changing his mind. Royals fans were standing up for their guy. I got it.

Except I don't think he did "get it". Because if he did, his column would've ended right there. Did he consider how many fans bought tickets upon hearing that a Royal would be in the derby? Probably not.

I’m not going to say the behavior of Royals fans was classless. That is too strong a word. However, it was needlessly tart and probably unwise.

Sweet, we're not classless. My question is this though, if classless is too strong a word then why mention it at all?

So it was foolish for Royals fans to let any negativity seep into Kauffman Stadium — even if it was directed at a member of the loathed Yankees. A more discerning group of fans would realize the marketing power that accompanies an All-Star Game.

Oh I see, we're not classless but we are foolish. A more discerning writer would realize that the home run derby is an exhibition for passionate fans. Casual fans neither care or watch.

Presumably, the Royals will want to compete for top-tier free agents as the team moves closer to legitimate contention. Why risk leaving a bad impression with any of the would-be free agents in attendance?

Yeah I bet players hate when fans adore and stick up for them.

And by the way, Cano’s AL team won in a landslide.

This last line is pure trolling and again shows that Morosi still misses the point.

If the derby were being held in Boston, and Cano had slighted a Red Sox player, you can be sure that the reaction would've been different. Righteous indignation would be absent as Morosi and company go on at length about the "intensity of the rivalry" and "the passion of the Fenway faithful". Poor Chris Berman would've chuckled himself into a seizure. But it was in Kansas City and the Midwestern hicks needed to be put in their place.

Now that the derby is over and Royals fans can claim victory - Cano went homerless - I agree with Craig Brown and Brian McGannon that there shouldn't be any booing tonight. Don't give him a standing ovation, though, because that would show passion, and as we learned last night passion is evil. A golf clap will suffice.

I bet Jon Morosi likes golf claps.

The Halfway Point

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Fri, 06 Jul 2012 16:12:00 +0000

With exactly half of the season's 162 games in the books a person can be excused for thinking 2012 is turning out to be a replay of previous seasons. It's telling that seven years after Dayton Moore was hired progress has still yet to show up in wins and losses. He has certainly constructed a better roster than he inherited, but rather than a natural year to year progression, they are basically just treading water.

Here is the Royals record and run differential after 81 games going back to 2004.

Year	Started	Runs +/-	Finished
2004	29-52	-113	58-104
2005	26-55	-121	56-106
2006	27-54	-144	62-100
2007	34-47	-52	69-93
2008	37-44	-44	75-87
2009	35-46	-63	65-97
2010	36-45	-28	67-95
2011	33-48	-49	71-91
2012	37-44	-32	??-??

I included the lost years (2004-2006) to show what kind of mess Moore wandered into, in case you had forgotten. Given resources unavailable to his predecessor he immediately began the task of building up the farm system, which he has accomplished. When you're not blessed with a 100 million dollar payroll this is how you try to even the playing field. The fruits of his labor have been trickling into KC for over a year now but, as you can see, record-wise they are in the same place they were four years ago.

That's because he has been unable to supplement the prospects with productive major leaguers. He has always had a problem evaluating talent at the big league level. This is mostly due to an illogical attachment to players who struggle with regularity to get on base. You know the guys I'm talking about.

Since Zack Greinke left town they have lacked a top of the rotation starting pitcher. Before last season they had four left-handed pitchers in the minor leagues that were the envy of baseball, but today, not so much. Two of the four had Tommy John surgery while the other two stalled developmentally. Danny Duffy is the only one to have spent any time in Kansas City. Would you have guessed back then that Will Smith would have more major league starts than Mike Montgomery by now?

Moore has been heavily criticized for not addressing the rotation during the offseason, other than Jonathan Sanchez of course, and he's been worse than anybody not named Craig Brown expected. I'm sure he would have addressed the need further if he had known that Felipe Paulino and Duffy would see their seasons end, maybe, I don't know. Keep in mind that offseason rotation solutions in years past were guys like Brett Tomko, Sidney Ponson and Horacio Ramirez. Sanchez fits in quite well with that group.

To be fair though, 2012's patchwork pitching staff has been a moderate success. The 366 runs they've allowed thus far is the fewest at the halfway point since 1993. The bullpen gets the majority of the credit but the starting rotation have produced 35 games where they've allowed 2 or fewer runs. That's just 7 fewer than the first place White Sox.

The offense has been the biggest problem. They 334 runs they've scored is the third fewest they've had at this point in a season since 1996. Only the 2008 (329) and 2009 (319) teams were worse. But that goes to the point above about the types of players Moore acquires. There are three starters with OBPs below .300, Eric Hosmer's will likely be above that soon (.290/.360/.448 since May 21st) but Yuniesky Betancourt and Jeff Francoeur's probably won't. It doesn't help that the two players Yuni and Frenchy are blocking are having their way with minor league pitching. Johnny Giavotella has a .402 OBP for Omaha while Wil Myers is sitting at .395.

The first half of the season has been weird. They are still trying to dig out of the hole the 12 game losing streak put them in. Since their 3-14 start they are 34-30, which is second best in the Central in that time but only by half a game (White Sox, 35-30). Don't get too excited though, despite a similar record the difference in run differential between Kansas City (-7) and Chicago (+45) is significant.

If you are still optimistic that they can contend this year despite their first half struggles then allow me to point you to 1984 to help bolster your optimism (because that's the kind of guy I am). That year they were 38-43 after 81, and -38 in run differential, but came back to win a weak AL West. The first place team at the time? The Chicago White Sox.

Jeff Francoeur And Playing Time

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Thu, 05 Jul 2012 15:16:00 +0000

Everybody knows Jeff Francoeur oozes leadership. We know this because Royals management and the KC media repeatedly mention what a great leader he is. Maybe I'm all alone here but this narrative was easier to digest last year when Francoeur was having a productive season. This year he has regressed back to his pre-2011 numbers but continues to play every day and is currently blocking a potential upgrade in Wil Myers.

That's the thing about Francoeur, he plays every day no matter how bad his performance. And I'm not talking about just this year. Since his sophomore season he's posted an OPS+ north of 100 just twice but yet has came to the plate 630+ times five times, and this season will assuredly make six. Atlanta gave him 653 plate appearances in 2008 and he gave them a 72 OPS+. I'm not sure why they stuck with him, he was coming off consecutive 100 RBI seasons though, so maybe they thought he would get it going at some point.

Since the start of the 2006 season Francoeur is one of only 28 major league hitters to have accumulated 4000+ plate appearances. Of those 28, only Juan Pierre has a lower OPS+ than Smilin' Jeff in that time frame.

Rk	Player	OPS+	PA	From	To
1	Albert Pujols	169	4357	2006	2012
2	Miguel Cabrera	156	4425	2006	2012
3	Matt Holliday	145	4215	2006	2012
4	David Ortiz	144	4025	2006	2012
5	Prince Fielder	143	4503	2006	2012
6	Adrian Gonzalez	139	4496	2006	2012
7	Ryan Howard	139	4019	2006	2011
8	David Wright	137	4181	2006	2012
9	Mark Teixeira	133	4418	2006	2012
10	Hanley Ramirez	130	4102	2006	2012
11	Robinson Cano	123	4209	2006	2012
12	Adam Dunn	123	4129	2006	2012
13	Curtis Granderson	118	4280	2006	2012
14	Carlos Lee	118	4114	2006	2012
15	Nick Swisher	118	4095	2006	2012
16	Nick Markakis	117	4310	2006	2012
17	Bobby Abreu	116	4179	2006	2012
18	Raul Ibanez	116	4054	2006	2012
19	Dan Uggla	115	4384	2006	2012
20	Derek Jeter	111	4529	2006	2012
21	Ichiro Suzuki	108	4727	2006	2012
22	Michael Young	107	4488	2006	2012
23	Alex Rios	104	4038	2006	2012
24	Brandon Phillips	102	4214	2006	2012
25	Jimmy Rollins	100	4273	2006	2012
26	Jhonny Peralta	99	4064	2006	2012
27	Jeff Francoeur	93	4151	2006	2012
28	Juan Pierre	83	4002	2006	2012

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/5/2012.

If we lower the minimum to 3000 Francoeur comes in 98th out of 109. Yuniesky Betancourt checks in on that particular list at 107.

When Myers gets promoted it'll be interesting to see how playing time is parceled out. There's the off chance Francoeur could be dealt but, unless Moore is willing to eat his contract, that seems unlikely. They DFA'd Mitch Maier rather than demote Jarrod Dyson or Jason Bourgeois so it would seem weird if one of them were suddenly relegated to Maier's previous irrelevant status.

One thing is certain though, Francoeur will get his at bats, because, leadership.

Billy Butler: All Star

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sun, 01 Jul 2012 22:31:00 +0000

After watching Alex Gordon get snubbed last year in favor of a relief pitcher I was expecting the same thing to happen again. Thankfully it didn't happen and Billy Butler will get the honor of representing the Royals in the All Star game (here's the video of Yost informing him, cool stuff). You already know that Butler is insanely popular in this little corner of the Royals blogosphere so it should be unsurprising to learn that I was thrilled with his selection. Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar were deserving too, and I would've been fine with either, but there was a certain rightness in Butler being named. He is, after all, on pace to to become the first Royal since Jermaine Dye in 2000 to have a 30+ home run season. Barring injury, he'll get there. Because he's awesome.

Player	Year	HR
Jermaine Dye	2000	33
Dean Palmer	1998	34
Chili Davis	1997	30
Gary Gaetti	1995	35
Danny Tartabull	1991	31
Bo Jackson	1989	32
Danny Tartabull	1987	34
George Brett	1985	30
Steve Balboni	1985	36
John Mayberry	1975	34

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/1/2012.

Just like last year with Gordon, the Royals have a chance at a second All Star. You can text A1 to 89269 to cast your vote for Jonathan Broxton. There has already been some confusion on twitter about A1 still being Gordon's nickname so let me help clear up the confusion. Gordon's first name starts with an A, he bats 1st in the lineup. A1. It fits him perfectly. Like Butler, he is also awesome, and that too starts with an A. You're welcome.

Dangerous

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sun, 01 Jul 2012 12:55:00 +0000

This isn't a post analyzing the body language, dedication or want of Jonathan Sanchez. I don't know what makes him tick. I don't care if he's a dangerous lover or just thinks he's a dangerous lover. I don't care about his hobbies and passions off the field. He can sacrifice kittens to the god of his choice and brag about it and I wouldn't so much as raise an eyebrow (but not puppies, that would be wrong). What I'm saying is, I just don't care.

What I do care about, though, is what he does on the mound. He has started 10 games this year and has just one quality start, and that start pushed the definition of quality to the vast extreme. He's way more likely to go less than 5 innings than he is to go 6, an innings eater he is not. But despite having one of the worst seasons for a starting pitcher in franchise history he is still being run out there every fifth day, and will be for the foreseeable future. You know something has gone decidedly wrong when your Royals comps are Sean O'Sullivan, Kyle Davies and Jose Lima.

Lowest ERA+ (min. 10 GS)

Rk	Player	ERA+	GS	Year
1	Sean O'Sullivan	57	10	2011
2	Jonathan Sanchez	60	10	2012
3	Kyle Davies	61	13	2011
4	Chad Durbin	62	16	2000
5	Brett Tomko	62	10	2008
6	Jose Lima	63	32	2005
7	Mike Hedlund	63	16	1972

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/1/2012.

I wasn't sure what to expect out of Sanchez this year. I was hopeful he could match his 2010 numbers (127 ERA+) and optimistic he could duplicate 2009 (100 ERA+). I figured at worst he would be a slight upgrade over Jeff Francis (86 ERA+). Wrong, wrong and wrong. Now to be fair, my optimism was based on his ability to strike people out throughout his career but he is nowhere close to the 9.4 SO/9 he put up entering 2012. His velocity is down, his strikeouts are down (6.0 SO/9) and his walks are up, way up (7.8 BB/9). That just has all the signs of a guy pitching through an injury.

Yesterday 73 of his 101 pitches were fastballs with an average speed of 89 miles an hour. Now that percentage isn't unusual for him, and it's likely fine when he can hit 93/94 when he needs to, but yesterday he topped out at 91. On the rare occasions he found the strike zone the Twins had no problems making contact.

If he's hurt then put him on the DL and replace him with Vin Mazzaro or Jake Odorizzi. If he's not hurt then release him. You cannot convince me that Mazzaro or Odorizzi will pitch worse than a guy having a historically bad season. Mazzaro had a 2.70 ERA in his first 4 starts of the season but was exiled to the bullpen after a disastrous outing against the Cardinals, despite the fact that it was very similar to the outing Bruce Chen had just the week before, also against the Cardinals. He pitched 2.1 scoreless innings in relief of Sanchez yesterday, which makes you wonder how differently the game might have gone if Yost had pulled the dangerous lover after the 4th inning when KC was down just 2-0. But, whatever.

Mazzaro now. Or Odorizzi.

Saving Broxton

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sat, 30 Jun 2012 15:21:00 +0000

Some Head Coaches in the NFL and college carry a card that describes the ideal situations for attempting a 2 point conversion. I imagine baseball managers have something similar regarding closer use. It probably looks something like this:

They can't be used in tied road games (unless they are pitching a second inning because they blew the save in their first inning of work).
They can't be used in non-save situations (unless they need work because they haven't pitched in a while).
They can't be removed from the game(unless they blow the save).

Ned Yost's strict adherence to the third rule almost cost the Royals a win last night. Handed a 3 run lead Jonathan Broxton did what he does when pitching with a 1 or 2 run lead, he let the tying run on base. After walking Denard Span to start the inning he then gave up an infield single to Ben Revere and a run scoring double to Joe Mauer. Now if this were the 8th inning, and Greg Holland (or whoever) were pitching, Yost likely goes to the bullpen at this point and calls on Aaron Crow or Kelvin Herrera, because the situation called for strikeouts. But it was the 9th inning and Yost was going to get his closer that save or lose trying.

The next three hitters would all represent the winning run and Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau and Trevor Plouffe were all just capable enough to smash a walkoff home run. Of course that didn't happen. A ground out, flyout and popout later the game was over and Johnny Drama had somehow escaped yet again.

Broxton is on pace for a 40+ save season, which isn't near as impressive a feat as it used to be. There have been 135 such seasons in MLB history but only 11 were achieved by pitchers with a higher WHIP than the 1.337 Broxton currently owns. I was actually surprised it was that many.

Rk	Player	WHIP	SV	Year
1	Mitch Williams	1.613	43	1993
2	Antonio Alfonseca	1.514	45	2000
3	Brian Wilson	1.444	41	2008
4	Todd Jones	1.438	42	2000
5	Francisco Cordero	1.431	40	2010
6	Joe Borowski	1.431	45	2007
7	Jose Mesa	1.413	43	2004
8	Brian Fuentes	1.400	48	2009
9	Bobby Jenks	1.392	41	2006
10	Roberto Hernandez	1.377	43	1999
11	Jose Mesa	1.374	45	2002

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/30/2012.

It would be nice if Yost realized that a Royals win is vitally more important than a Broxton save. If Crow or Collins or Herrera has to come in and clean up Broxton's mess, then so be it. The team is just 2 games out of second place and may actually play meaningful baseball after the All Star break for the first time in quite a while.

Andy at the High Heat Stats blog posted just yesterday an article criticizing managers for the way closers are handled saying the "current prevailing strategy has been shown to be monumentally flawed". That's true and I think a good majority of fans realize this. So the question is, why don't managers? I agree with Andy that closer use will change at some point, it almost has to, but unfortunately I don't believe for a second that Ned Yost will be the manager that leads the late inning revolution.

Stop It

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Fri, 29 Jun 2012 14:02:00 +0000

One year ago today Billy Butler was in the midst of a down year according to some fans and they demanded that he be traded. This vocal minority was able to look past his .297/.396/.428 line and were able to concentrate solely on his 6 home runs and 34 RBIs. It was ridiculous. His on-base percentage hovered around .400 almost the entire first half, but because he didn't fit the profile of the slugger they thought he should be, they wanted him gone. Luckily Dayton Moore dismissed the rantings of these lunatic minds.

Of course you'll recall that Butler then started hitting home runs and he hasn't stopped. He's hit 28 of them in the last 365 days and the calls to trade him have declined dramatically. But they haven't stopped completely. Now some think he should be dealt because he may be the team's most tradable asset. The theory is that this would then open up a spot for Clint Robinson who should be able to replicate Butler's production because anybody can be a DH. Insane, I know.

First off, selling high on a relief pitcher is one thing, but it's quite another when you're talking about one of the best hitters in franchise history. Butler is almost certain to have a fourth year with an OPS+ above 120 making him just the seventh Royal to have that many such seasons. Do you really believe that Robinson (who is older than Butler) can produce at that level? Here's the list, and as you'll notice, there's not a slouch among them.

Rk		Yrs
1	George Brett	14
2	Hal McRae	7
3	Amos Otis	6
4	Mike Sweeney	5
5	Danny Tartabull	4
6	John Mayberry	4
7	Billy Butler	4

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

And just because someone can be a DH doesn't mean they should be a DH. A look at recent Royals history will show that hasn't been a particularly productive spot until Butler took it over for good last year. Call me crazy but a guy who does nothing but hit should be someone who, you know, actually hits.

Year	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
2007	13	87	.264	.317	.399
2008	26	86	.268	.309	.446
2009	24	84	.209	.281	.374
2010	22	78	.252	.329	.426
2011	17	95	.294	.365	.454
2012	11	40	.298	.350	.476

There's also the little matter of the 36 home runs Steve Balboni hit in 1985. This record survived the steroid era but it may not survive Country Breakfast. Butler is on pace for about 33 home runs but he's nearly three weeks ahead of Balboni (Bye Bye hit his 15th home run on July 19th) and tends to hit for more power in the second half. I don't know about you but I kind of want to see how it plays out.

So if you are calling for DM to trade Butler, stop it, and focus your energy on someone else.

Buy Or Sell

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sat, 23 Jun 2012 15:17:00 +0000

I think last night's loss may have tempered the enthusiasm of fans who thought the Royals were a starting pitcher or two away from winning the division. There was a lot of talk on twitter after the Astros series that Dayton Moore needed to be aggressive before the trade deadline because the team was just 4.5 games out of first place. I'm not sure that would be in the team's best long term or short term interest.

While the 25 man roster is lacking in areas you have to remember that Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi will be up soon. Salvador Perez came back last night and homered in his season debut. (I recently found out Perez is overrated, I had no idea. Thank you internet.) That's three players that should make the team better. Three players that will not cost a Mike Montgomery, Cheslor Cuthbert or Christian Colon.

It hurt losing Felipe Paulino for the season so I'm all for Moore acquiring a starting pitcher, that is, if he can find a team willing to take on Jeff Francoeur's contract or overpay for Jonathan Broxton. Those two might be the only available players (if Francoeur is indeed available) that will draw any interest. Losing them wouldn't cripple the team going forward as Frenchy would be immediately replaced by Myers, and Johnny Drama (not sure who coined that nickname but well done) may have a sparkly ERA, but he's actually the fifth best reliever on the roster.

Buy or sell, I expect the trade season will pass through KC quietly. I wouldn't be shocked if a National League team came calling for Luke Hochevar. The frustrating one put up a 3.00 ERA in 21 inter-league innings this year so maybe there's a GM somewhere willing to gamble that Hoch has figured it out. I was one of the few in 2006 that wanted KC to take him first overall, and probably the only one to admit it now (go ahead and laugh but I recall some of you wanted Greg Reynolds. You know who you are.), but I jumped off the bandwagon last year and haven't climbed back on. I was optimistic that his second half performance was a career changer but I'm not shocked at all that he reverted back to his inconsistent ways.

I'm okay with Hochevar staying too but I think this is who he is and he's not going to ever justify his draft status. One member of the rotation I do want to see gone, via trade or outright release, is Jonathan Sanchez. The guy has been a complete joke this year (71 ERA+, 1.81 WHIP, 6.9 BB/9). At this point I'd rather see what Montgomery can do at the big league level. If I'm going to be forced to watch a wild lefty I'd rather it be the 22 year old with upside.

OOTP 13

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Sat, 23 Jun 2012 14:08:00 +0000

To celebrate the launch of Out Of The Park Baseball 13 the developers of the game released copies of the game to bloggers willing to participate in a season sim event. I took part a few years ago and was eager to give it another try. It was great then, it's flat out awesome now. Simply put, this is the best baseball simulation game on the planet. (If you are looking for an in-depth and comprehensive review, Craig Brown has got you covered here.)

Per the developer's request I simulated the season and watched as the Royals led the Central from start to finish. I'm not even kidding. They spent a grand total of zero days out of first place. That's not as impressive as it sounds, though, because the AL Central - surprise, surprise- was fairly weak.

I kept waiting for the Tigers to go on a run that never came. The Royals took advantage of Detroit's down year and ended up advancing all the way to the ALCS, where they were quickly eliminated by the Angels.

As for individual performances the game, like every non-crazy person, thinks highly of Billy Butler as he led the team in most offensive categories. Eric Hosmer and Alex Gordon also had great seasons, but everyone else, not so much. The two best starting pitchers were Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy, just like in real life before they went on their Tommy John-approved vacations. Wil Myers made a second half appearance and hit .282/.368/.458 in 177 plate appearances.

If you've still yet to purchase the game, then head there now and make it happen. I promise, you will not regret it.

Greinke Returns To The K

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Wed, 13 Jun 2012 13:50:00 +0000

The day I've been dreading since December 2010 arrived last night, and honestly, it went about as well as possible. Zack Greinke pitched great (7 IP, 1 R, 8 SO) but took neither the win or loss as KC pulled out the 2-1 victory. I wanted him to do well but of course I didn't want him to win. Luckily he was awarded the same sort of run support he received while a Royal.

Luis Mendoza - doing his best Philip Humber impersonation - took a no hitter into the 7th inning where he lost it when Ryan Braun hit a little league triple (infield single, two throwing errors). As Craig Brown noted, Mendoza's games score of 68 was the second best of his career. Mendoza was pulled after walking Aramis Ramirez (kudos to Yost for making that move) and finished the night allowing only the 1 hit, 2 walks and a run. I have zero confidence in Mendoza, and his spot on the roster says an awful lot about Dayton Moore, but for one night he was pretty doggone good.
Alex Gordon and Billy Butler provided all the offense, more or less. A1 homered and doubled and scored both runs. Country Breakfast drove in the game winning run with a clutch single in the bottom of the 8th inning. (This came after a sacrifice bunt by Chris Getz, which I was totally cool with. I've seen Getz ground out to the pitcher too many times in my life. You all know how I feel about intentional outs but they bother me less when Getz is the one squaring up.) I mentioned on twitter that last night's runs were courtesy of Allard Baird, so you know, thank you Allard.
Jonathan Broxton was Jonathan Broxton, meaning the game didn't end with a 1-2-3 9th. He's retired the side in order in only 4 of his 15 saves. He's certainly been good this year (1.52 ERA) but he's also been lucky. KC has four relievers with a WHIP below 1.10, Broxton is not one of them (1.26). Sadly I expect he'll be the Royals lone All Star game representative which would suck on a couple different levels.
Greg Holland got the win and looks to be back to his normal self. Since coming off the DL he has a 0.66 ERA in 13.2 innings while holding the league to a pitiful .119/.269/.119 line

The Art Of Killing A Rally

noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Parker) — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 13:41:00 +0000

Ned Yost and Dayton Moore came of baseball age in a time when batting average and RBI's were king and the sacrifice bunt was more than strategy, it was a way of life. Despite considerable - and easily accessible - research that shows certain stats and strategy to be overrated Yost and Moore continue to manage and general manage like it's 1982.

Last night Yost made a decision that had many, once again, questioning his managerial IQ. With 3 runs in and two runners on with nobody out Yost did what he does best, he let the Twins off the hook. He had Alcides Escobar sacrifice bunt. In the 4th inning. With Jarrod Dyson and Humberto Quintero the next two scheduled hitters. In the midst of a big inning he played for one and got none because both Dyson and Bert struck out looking. The move is still questionable but understandable if Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas are up next but they weren't. It was the team's eighth and ninth hitters that Yost entrusted to get at least one more run home, and they failed. Miserably. Poetic justice was served in the 5th inning when the Twins hit two home runs to take a three run lead they would never relinquish.

It's not hard to see why the Royals have put together so few big innings this year and much of that fault lies on Yost's shoulders. Sacrifice bunts and failed sacrifice bunts, along with a counter productive baserunning strategy, have killed too many rallies already this year. It'd be nice if he would notice the trend, and actually he may, but he is so dead set in his ways that he's not going to change. Because that's how baseball was played in his day and by gawd that's how it's going to be played today. Whether it works or not.

Yost seems very personable and is a great interview but he's a terrible manager. You can defend him by saying he doesn't bat, pitch or field and you'd be right, but the thing is, he decides who bats, pitches and fields. He is the one playing Yuniesky Betancourt too much. He is the one who refuses to try Aaron Crow in the rotation but will let Luis Mendoza, Nathan Adcock, Everett Teaford and Will Smith start games. He is the one who continued to bat Jeff Francoeur fifth when Francoeur was the closest thing to an automatic out you'd find anywhere in baseball. Hey it's great that he's hitting now but for a month plus he wasn't and Yost didn't care.

I'd go all in on the fire Yost bandwagon if I thought there was something to it. As it stands I think it's just a waste of time. Moore is not going to fire him because he likes what Yost is doing. I presume, since Yost is still here and hasn't changed tactics. Besides, if you want a more progressive manager I don't think you'll get one while Moore is around, which is to say you'll first need a more progressive GM.

But that's a post for another day.