Where passion meets money!

SPORTINGBET £50 OFFER

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 17:16:00 +0000

£50 free bet

This offer is only available to new customers who open an account, deposit at least £10, and place their first bet between now and 31st March 2011 inclusive.

When you place your first bet of £10 or more at odds of 1.2 or greater we will give you a free bet of the same value up to a maximum of £50.

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The free bet bonus will be credited as “winnings-only” (stake not returned) and must be wagered once before any subsequent winnings can be withdrawn.

Any free bet bonuses that remain unused after 7 days of being paid in will be removed from customer accounts.

This offer is only available to residents from the UK and ROI.

STAN JAMES ₤25 OFFER

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 14:29:00 +0000

£25 free bet

Open an account at Stan James, deposit and bet £25 on a sporting event that offers odds of evens or greater (2.00), and Stan James will match that amount. Free bet is stake not returned (SNR).

888 SPORT £50 OFFER

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 16:27:00 +0000

£50 in free bets

Join 888sport They will give you ₤50 worth of bets.

Open an account with 888sport and place a bet of at least £15 and 888sport will then credit your 888sport account with a £15 free bet token.
Place a further 9 bets of at least £15 each, and you will qualify for a second 'bet bonus' free bet token of £15.
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All qualifying bets must be a minimum of £15 and must be placed at odds of evens (2.00) or greater (for each-way bets total stake must be at least £30). Multiple bets count as one bet and all legs must be placed at odds of evens (2.0) or greater. Free bet stakes are not included in any returns (SNR). Free bet tokens must be used in their entirety on a single bet. They cannot be used to place a succession of smaller bets. Free bet tokens can be used to place single bets only and expire after 30 days.

LADBROKES £10 OFFER

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 06:26:00 +0000

£10 free bet

Open an account at Ladbrokes.com.
Place a win single of £10 or more on any sport and we will give you a £10 free bet. Free bet will be credited on settlement of qualifying bet. Free bet can be used on any sport and can only be redeemed online. Free bet can only be used in its entirety as a win single. Free bets must be used within 7 days. Stake not returned on winning free bets (SNR).

UK & Irish customers only.

CANBET £25 OFFER

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 05:48:00 +0000

£25 bonus

Step 1: Open a new Canbet account and enter the promotional code BETBONUS during the registration process.

Step 2: Deposit and bet a minimum of £25 within 30 days of opening your account.

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Promotional Code: BETBONUS

WILLIAM HILL £25 OFFER

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 22:43:00 +0000

£25 free bet

Simply open an account with William Hill, via this link and when you place your first bet, they will give you a free bet of the same value up to a maximum of £25. Enter code F25 during the registration process.

Your first bet must be placed on a selection(s) with single/cumulative odds greater than 1/5 (1.2)
The free bet will be credited once your first bet has been settled. This offer is only available to new William Hill customers who open an account using a valid promo code. Free bets must be placed within 7 days of award otherwise they will expire. Free bet stakes are not returned as part of the settlement of successful free bets (SNR).

This promotion is not available to residents of China, Taiwan, Romania, Poland, Slovenia, Serbia & Montenegro, Belarus, Ukraine, Latvia, Russia, Portugal, Georgia.

PARTYBETS £25 OFFER

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 16:12:00 +0000

£25 free bet

They’ll give you 100% extra on your first deposit, up to £25, when you open an account at PartyBets.com.

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1. Open an account

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You’ll need to wager at least five times the bonus amount at odds of 2.0 or more to cash out this bonus.

Bonus expires 90 days after making a first deposit.

Any player accounts opened or funded using Webmoney or Moneybookers will be excluded from this promotion!

BETINTERNET £25 OFFER

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:48:00 +0000

£25 free bet

Simply open a new Betinternet account with the link provided below and fill out your details. Once your new Betinternet account is ready and opened simple place your first bet of between £10 and £50 on odds of evens and above (2.00) and Betinternet will rewarded you with a free bet of 50% of the original stake. This is 'stake not returned' (SNR) free bet. So when using my matched betting strategy, placing free bet, look for odds around 7.00 to get maximum profits. So if you bet £50 with your first bet Betinternet will credit you with a free bet of £25, it could not be easier.

The 50% cashmatch promotion is not available to customers with correspondence addresses/IP’s addresses from Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Georgia, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Pakistan, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Turkey and Ukraine.

So if your first qualifying bet is £50, you will receive £25 from BetInternet.

PADDY POWER BET £10 GET £20 OFFER

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 15:20:00 +0000

£20 free bet

Open a new account, place a £10 bet and they'll give you a free £20 bet.

Valid for new customers only. Place a single bet of £10 and receive another £20 bet. Free Bet stake not included in returns. The potential returns on Bet Slip and Bet Receipt indicate returns with stake. Not valid for multiples. One free bet per customer. Free bet valid for paddypower.com sportsbook only. Free bet valid for 60 days. To redeem free bet - make your next betting selection, your free bet will appear on your betting slip. Qualifying bet must be placed at odds of 1/2 or greater. Offer cannot be used in conjunction with any other new account offer. Free bets cannot be combined with other bets on the same market, in the event of this occurring we reserve the right to void all winnings.

Following countries are excluded from Free Bet promotions: Bulgaria, Georgia, Russia, Latvia, Portugal. Moneybookers or Netteller to deposit will not qualify for this free bet offer

UNIBET £20 OFFER

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 09:36:00 +0000

£20 free bet

Complete the registration form below. Make a deposit of at least £10. You'll immediately receive your bonus (up to £20) for FREE.

Before you can make a withdrawal or transfer the money to poker and casino, the bonus amount has to be turned over 6 times in our sportsbook on odds 1.40 or above. It is not allowed to bet on all possible outcomes on a match/event to reach the required turnover for the bonus requirements. Just use my matched betting strategy. This bonus is exclusive for UK residents only.

EXPEKT €50 / £45 OFFER

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 20:45:00 +0000

€50 / £45 bonus on first deposit

First deposit bonus of 50% up to €50 / £45 for all new customers Make your first deposit at expekt.com and they will add extra 50% of your deposit to your account balance ,up to max €50 / £45. Take these 3 easy steps to start profiting from sports betting:

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VICTOR CHANDLER £100 OFFER

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 19:58:00 +0000

Up to £100 in free bets

Open an account with Victor Chandler and they`ll match the value of your first bet with a free bet to a maximum of £50. Place a further five real money bets of £10 or more and they`ll give you another £25 free bet. Place a further five real money bets of £10 or more and they`ll give you another £25 free bet and £25 in vccasino.com bonus funds.

BETFRED £50 OFFER

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 17:34:00 +0000

Up to £50 in free bets

Betfred is offering all new customers a free bet of up to £50
To get your free bet of up to £50, all you need to do is open an account, place your bet of £5 or more and they’ll give you a free bet to the same value, up to a maximum of £50.

Your free bet will be credited to your account within 48 hours of your qualifying bet being settled.

Customers who deposit via Moneybookers, Neteller and PayPal are excluded from the free bet offer!

Residents of, and debit / credit cards registered in the following countries (or countries formerly part of these) will not qualify for the free bet offer: Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, China, Denmark, Finland, Georgia, Hong Kong, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Macau, Malaysia, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Taiwan, Thailand, Ukraine, Union of Serbia and Montenegro and Greece.

Step by step Betfair trading tutorial / Step 4

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 17:49:00 +0000

Step 4 - Football trading strategy

What follows is a strategy for trading soccer matches inrunning or inplay. It is simple, effective and easy to understand. Plenty of matches result in a draw, but only about 1 in 20, or 5% result in a noscore draw. Converted to digital odds this would be 20.
On Betfair’s Match Odds the only outcomes that can be bet on are:

Home Win · Away Win · Draw (there is no option to bet on noscore draws)

The method: ·

Select matches where the odds for Home Win, Away Win and Draw are reasonably in line. This does not necessarily mean that the teams are well matched and it can be useful if you can pick teams that do not have similar form.

· LAY the DRAW · When the match is underway wait for a goal to be scored (you need to be in touch with the match either by watching it on television, listening to a live radio commentary or any other means to inform you about what is going on), at which point trading will be suspended.

· When trading resumes the odds for the draw will almost certainly have moved out.

· BACK the DRAW at the increased odds either to give yourself a Guaranteed Profit or a No Lose situation using the calculations you have seen in previous chapters.

Between the time you have placed your LAY BET and the time of the match the odds may move to your advantage to enable you to BACK the DRAW for a Guaranteed Profit or a NO LOSE situation. If this situation does not arise then move to the next stage. Before you use this strategy, I advocate three things: practice, practice and practice. Observe how the market behaves; get a “feel” for it. Paper trade for a time and see how At this point it is advisable to act as quickly as possible because the first odds on display following resumption of trading lean to the high side (to our advantage) and they will usually shorten soon after. Now that you know how to ask for your own odds, which you have seen in previous chapters, you may wish to ask for odds which you think will be taken. Don’t be too greedy; if the odds you ask for are too high someone is simply going to undercut you, leaving you to take the available odds. The message is act as quickly as possible following resumption of trading after a goal has been scored. As you gain confidence, and when that first goal is scored, you may wish to look for further trades. BACKING & LAYING, LAYING & BACKING, waiting for any indications that will swing odds in your favour for a profitable trade.

WHAT DO I DO IF NO GOALS ARE SCORED TOWARDS THE END OF THE MATCH?

To reduce your original liability, and if there is no alternative, it is advisable to tradeout at a loss.

Important:

You can tune up this strategy a bit (although reducing your profits but also making a risk free situation) by:

BACKING 0:0 before the game (I personally suggest looking for odds higher than 15.00, basically you have to look for a game with high scoring predicitons).

Here is the online calculator for this LAY / DRAW hedging: Click here

Step by step Betfair trading tutorial / Step 3

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 13:17:00 +0000

Step 3 - BACK Odds and LAY Odds

Back Odds

If you have bet before, using a traditional Bookmaker, you are probably used to using "Fractional Odds" when placing a bet. From now on, when using a Betting Exchange, you will be using European "Decimal Odds". Decimal odds are much easier to use and comparison between odds is quicker. The difference between the two types of odds presentation is quite straightforward. As an example, the Fractional Odds of 2/1 (two to one) converts to a Decimal Odd of 3.0 (three). Converting Fractional Odds to Decimal Odds is done by dividing the numerator by the denominator and adding 1, thus: 2 divided by 1 + 1 = 3.0 We add one because Decimal Odds include the original stake money when calculating returns.

However, before diving into the realms of betting, let me, for the uninitiated to gambling, explain a little about the principles of betting odds. Firstly, I will give a number of examples using Fractional Odds and then show the same examples using Decimal Odds. Don't forget, we are at present looking at BACKING examples; LAYING will be explained later. Odds are the mathematical figures, which state how winning bets will be settled. The Fractional Odds of 2/1 (2 to 1) (2 to 1 against) means that the Bookmaker will bet his 2 to your 1 that your selection does not win (you must win before the Bookmaker will give you a return).

If you bet £1 at the odds of 2/1, and the horse you have backed goes on to win, then you will receive £3 from your Bookmaker. e.g.

1. 2 x £1 = £2.00 (Your Profit) Plus Original Stake Money = £1.00 Total Return = £3.00 Further examples using £1 as your Original Stake Money:

2. Odds 11/8 11/8 x £1 = £1.37 (Your Profit) Plus Original Stake Money = £1.00 Total Return = £2.37 Betting Exchange Trader

3. Odds 4/5 (Odds On) (5 to 4 On) This simply means that the Bookmaker is betting his £4 to your £5. 4/5 x £1 = £0.80 (Your Profit) Plus Original Stake Money = £1.00 Total Return = £1.80

Now that the basics of Fractional Odds has been covered you must get used to using
Decimal Odds if you are going to use the Betting Exchanges for your new adventures.
The examples below show the equivalent Decimal Odds format of the examples shown
above:

1. Odds 3.0 (Fractional Odds 2/1) Return from Bookmaker 3.0 x £1 = £3.00 Less Original Stake Money = £1.00 Your Profit = £2.00

2. Odds 2.37 (Fractional Odds 11/8) Return from Bookmaker 2.37 x £1 = £2.37 Less Original Stake Money = £1.00 Your Profit = £1.37

3. Odds 1.80 (Fractional Odds 4/5) Return from Bookmaker 1.80 x £1 = £1.80 Less Original Stake Money = £1.00 Your Profit = £0.80

When BACKING you will be looking for , or asking for, as HIGH ODDS as possible.

LAY Odds

You have seen how BACKING odds work when you are placing a bet with a
Bookmaker. Now, all there is to understanding LAY odds, is to reverse the role. You
are now the Bookmaker and accepting bets from others. Look at the examples again, but this time put yourself in the Bookmakers seat.

When you look at the layout of the Betting Exchanges later in this manual; in our case
Betfair, you will see two sets of odds
one for those wishing to "BACK" A
CONTESTANT TO WIN and one for those wishing to "LAY" A CONTESTANT TO
LOSE.

You will select the LAY odds if you wish to act as Bookmaker. Put simply, it means
other users of Betfair will be placing bets with you, as if you are a Bookmaker. They
will be betting on the contestant to WIN, whereas you will be looking for the contestant
to LOSE.

When LAYING you will be looking for, or asking for, as LOW ODDS as possible.

Step by step Betfair trading tutorial / Step 2

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 12:52:00 +0000

Step 2 – Looking at the markets

With Betfair there are 2 places you can identify markets to trade on. There are the in-play markets and the general betting markets. A brief explanation of the two is this. In-play markets can be bet on throughout the event where as general markets will close when the event starts e.g. kick off in football. The in-play markets for the day can be found on the right hand side of the page about half way down. These markets are the ones we can bet on today and will be things like football, snooker, golf and tennis matches. They are also usually the top games of the day so the teams or players at the top of their game. There is usually a lot more money available for the top matches and so they are usually set so you can bet on them as they are being played.

The general markets are listed all the way down the left hand side of the page. The in-play events will be in here too but they will be jumbled up with all of the events you cannot bet on in-play. Here we can place bets on the outcomes of an event like a golf or football tournament which could last anything from a few days to a few weeks or longer. These are our long term trades.

Step by step Betfair trading tutorial / Step 1

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 11:01:00 +0000

Step 1 – Set up an account

This tutorial will take you through Betfair showing you how to set up an account, navigate the site to find the markets you need and how to place back and lay bets. There is a lot Betfair can do and we advise using their very helpful guide that can be found in the help section of the site.

The first thing you need to do if you haven’t already done so is set up an account with Betfair. We would suggest a new and separate account even if you have one already as this will enable you to keep track of your progress and profits much better. To do this simply click on the join now button at the top of the page in Betfair or Betdaq and fill in your information. You will then need to make a deposit so think about how much you are going to need to start trading. We would suggest starting with around £1000 but less can be used (£100) initially and you can build up to higher stakes later on.

Important:

The Betfair 'Refer and Earn' code account that Betfair provide is by far the best Betfair promotion available. Most Betfair promotions either provide a 10 or 20 Free Bet. However, the Betfair 'Refer and Earn' promotion not only offers a 25 FREE BET but also offers a bonus payout of up to 660 dependant upon your account activity. To get this £25 bonus you have to tick yes for question Do you have a Promotion or "Refer and Earn" code? in registration form and enter code KUA6LEADH

Betfair Trading Basics

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The basics of trading

The basic we are going to go through from now on will work with any event on
Betfair. These are the building blocks of exchange trading and are all you
need to know to get going.

The individual football, horse racing, rugby and non-sporting event manuals
explain in much more detail the finer points of each. You should understand
the basics first then move on to find out about each manuals exact methods of
trading. This will ensure you get a good understanding and have all the tools
and skills you need to succeed as a trader.

How to identify a possible trade
Identifying trades is a simple thing to do like anything really if you know where
to look for the information that will help you.
The key to successful trading is research, research, research. Especially
when it comes to trading on football matches.

You can’t just pick an event and bet on it in the hope the outcome will go
your way and you can complete the trade. So many times in the early days of
trading we managed to come unstuck and lose money that we thought was
going to be easy to trade. We had no idea really because we didn’t research
the possibilities.
You need to have an idea which way the market is likely to shift or which way
a particular match is likely to go. If you get it wrong it can have dire
consequences. The first step to identifying trades is to look at the possibilities
for trading that day or week. We usually trade on a day to day basis starting in
the morning by looking at what events are in-play for the day.
Each sporting manual in the later chapters will tell you how to find the events
that are best traded on. You will need some information to help you make
decisions about which football or rugby match to trade on and we show you
how to find it in each chapter. When you select an event you think you would
like to trade on you need to research it and see if there are indicators as to the
possible outcome.

What type of trade to use
There are 2 main types of trade you can carry out. The first we will look at are
in-play events. We will look at what we call market shift trading a little later.

In-play trading
This is a quick trade that usually happens in a single event like a football or
rugby match or horse race. The event will be over within a couple of hours or
with a horse race a few minutes. You will need to see which events are in-play
for the day so you can research them and find out which are the best trades
for the day ahead. You can do this by looking at the in-play events on Betfair
that we showed you earlier. Horse racing is always available in-play or inrunning
as it is also called but only certain football matches are available.
So how do you trade in-play events?
Well trading on an in play event is simply laying or backing an element of the
event to guarantee you make a profit. The key to in-play trading is knowing
what is likely to happen in the event and therefore which way the market is
going to shift. The market will move a lot during an in-play event as the game
is played out or the race is run.

Example of an in-play trade
We traded in-play on the Scotland v France match of the 6 Nations rugby in
2006. France were the odds on favourites to win the match and Scotland were
the rank outsiders.
We thought Scotland had a better chance of winning than their odds
suggested so as the match kicked off we placed a lay bet on France of £500
at odds of 1.45. There isn’t a great liability there if France did win the match
as the odds were so low. We could have traded out if France scored a couple
of tries at around 1.25 – 1.30 early on so would have minimised the bet and
taken a small loss.
As it happens Scotland scored first and as they did so the odds on France
went up a little to around 1.65. Obviously it was early on in the match and
France could have come back and scored easily so the odds didn’t drift too
far. Right now we could have traded out of the bet by backing France at the
higher odds of 1.65 and made a profit but we though Scotland were still
looking the stronger side so decided to stick with it. Low and behold Scotland
scored again and at half time France had made a little headway and the score
was 13-3 to Scotland.

The second half
The odds now were up to 4.00 and a fantastic trading opportunity for us so we
took the odds and made a lovely guaranteed profit.
The second half was a bit more dicey with France scoring a try early on and
the odds dropped sharply back down to 2.00 which we though was excellent
as we just traded out at 4.00.
This just shows how much the market can shift in-play and this was a tight
game so the odds weren’t swinging greatly. They can swing much more than
this. As it happens Scotland won the match and we could have made £500 by
just leaving our original lay bet as it was but what if France had won by 1 point
in the final 5 minutes which was totally possible????
As it was we made a nice profit with no risk at all and we will go into the how’s
and whys of in-play trading in the manuals later in the chapters. We wanted to
give you an example of an in-play trade to show you how it works and why it
works here so you have all the information you need to start trading now.

The rugby trade explained
We layed France at odds of 1.45 with £500 = Liability of £225 if they win and
profit of £500 if Scotland win or the match is a draw
At half time we backed France at 4.00 with £200
Profit if France win = £575 (£800 – original liability of £225)
Profit if Scotland win = £300 (£500 – France back bet of £200)
Profit if match draws = £300 (£500 – France back bet of £200)
You can see that no matter what happens in this rugby match we will win a
minimum of £300! Which we did as Scotland went on to win 20-16.

How Bookies Make Money

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 20:01:00 +0000

What`s behind the odds?

Like any other game run by casino or bookmaker, sports-betting has built-in disadvantage for the punter and mathematical advantage for bookmaker. House edge exists in roulette, blackjack, craps. It is in sports-betting as well.

If someone offered you 5.00 odds for throwing the dice an exact number , would you accept this rule? It is easy to count that. In the long term, you will hit “your” number once in six tries. Thus, your expectation is 1/6 * 5.00 = 0.83 You are destined to lose 17 cents on every dollar you bet. Throwing a dice 1000 times and betting $1 on each toss, you will most likely win 166 times (it is 1/6 of 1000) so you will win 166*5.0 = 830 what makes you lose $170. The same rules apply in a world of sports-betting.

Lets look at a game between Real Madrid and Valencia. Bookmakers expect that public opinion will spread in a perfect way. They predict that half of all the money wagered on this match will be on “over 2.5 goals” bet and the other half will be staked on “under 2.5”. Knowing this fact (they can never be sure but most likely are very close in their estimations) they should set the odds in a way which allow them to grab an equal profit regardless the final result of this match. How to do it?

They set fair odds which are equal to 50% / 50 % distribution. The common formula is “100 / expectation” , so it is 100 / 50 = 2 . Odds 2.00 / 2.00 are called fair odds. The overound has not been applied yet - in this case both a punter and bookmaker would finish with zero net profit if money was distributed as expected (50/50).

Having fair odds they must decide how big margin they need. It varies throughout betting companies reaching as low as 2% to as high as 45% . Generally, there are some information which are worth remembering:

The more outcomes in any event, the bigger overound is to be applied. The best payable from punter’s point of view are 2-way bets, like Tennis matches, Under/Over in Football or Asian handicaps. There you can grab even 1.98 / 1.98 offers in major European leagues. In this case, a bookmaker earns as little as one dollar from every $100 wagered!
The worst for a punter are special and outright bets. It would not be a bad piece of advice to suggest avoiding this kind of outcomes at all. Forget about “First scorer”, “To Win Premiership” , “Exact Scores” kind of bets. I know that some time odds on 1-0 correct score around 5.50 might look a bit tempting but, believe me – it is horrible difficult to beat 45% overound in a long term.
The bigger prestige of any league, the lower overound applied. It is well known that 1x2 fixed market on English Premiership, Spanish La Liga and other major leagues varies in 8%-9% range while games on English Division Three have as big as 12% overound. It is an easy explanation: a competition. The more exotic division is, the less number of bookmakers offer odds on this. They must find a way to compensate it so they set up the bigger margins.
By betting more than one pick on a coupon increase the overound.

Looking back at our example of a match between Real and Valencia, a bookmaker decides to earn 5% from this outcome. He offers 1.90 on “over 2.5” and 1.90 on “under 2.50” . If his predictions were right, he will have $2000 wagered on “over” and $2000 on “under” , which is 50/50 distribution of all $4000 staked.

No matter, how the game finishes, he will have to pay one of the sides $2000*1.90 = $3800 cashing-in $4000, what would bring him $200 net profit (notice that $200 is 5% of $4000).

Wanting to earn 10% he would have to set 1.80 / 1.80 odds. Nowadays, the market is so saturated and competitive that you will easily find 1.92 / 1.92 (4% house edge) on any event 2-way event.

If odds have built-in house edge, how to beat the bookie? The numbers are not fixed as in craps or roulette. This distribution 50/50 it is only a prediction made by a human like you and me. If you are capable of spotting his mistakes, you are on a good way to be on plus in a long term.

There are all the possible outcomes in a match between Manchester City and Aston Villa in a range of only one bookmaker. The game was played 31.10.05 . In brackets you can find how many outcomes were offered on this particular event. Conclusion is obvious: most sophisticated bets like Goal Scorer or Exact Score are the worst profitable for a punter while simple offers like Asian Handicaps are the easiest to beat.

The economics of gambling explained

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 19:48:00 +0000

Interesting math behind this industry, or why you really should consider matched - betting, instead regular, risky one.

SCOTTISH FINANCIAL wizard John Law is remembered, among other things, for setting up France's first central bank in the early 18th century. Like a lot of people who work in that business, he was fond of a bet.

One of his favourite tricks was to offer people odds of 10,000-1 that they could not throw six consecutive sixes with a die. It was bad value. The real odds are over 46,000-1. Law was never likely to pay out.

It is probably one of the first recorded examples of a house edge. This is the difference between the real odds and those offered to the punter. For example, the odds against any single number coming up on a roulette wheel are 36-1, but casinos pay you 35-1, giving them a 2.7 per cent safety net.

All businesses that make money from gambling focus on balancing risk with offering their customers attractive odds. Casinos have a house edge. Bookmakers have an over-round, designed to give them a margin that will guarantee a profit but ensure that their punters win a share of money.

"We actually want people to have that winning experience," Paddy Power, head of communications with the bookmaker's chain of the same name, says. "If someone comes in and keeps losing, they'll just stop coming back."

The over-round works like this: a bookie offers two punters bets on the toss of a coin. The odds on either outcome are even money, 50 per cent plus 50 per cent, or 100 per cent. This is a pure betting market, as the odds fairly reflect the probability of either outcome. But the bookie cannot make money at those odds, so he will offer something like 10-11 on both results.

This means that both punters have to stake €11 in order to win €10. So the bookmaker takes in €22, and pays out €21 (the €11 stake plus €10 in winnings) to the winner, and keeps €1 for himself.

The bookie's odds come to 104.8 per cent, that is, 52.4 per cent plus 52.4 per cent, giving him a margin of 2.4 per cent on each result. The 4.8 per cent is the over-round.

The house edge and over-round ensure that the return is a few per cent below the real risk, which means that as all eventualities play out, punters will ultimately lose more than they win.

Power's colleague, Dermot Golden, the firm's head of risk, says there is more to it than offering 10-11 on a 50/50 chance. He points out that customers know when they are not getting decent odds. "It's a very competitive market and they will go somewhere else if they don't believe that they are getting value," he says.

Golden says bookmakers have to offer proportionately more generous odds on the fancied horses that people want to back, than on the outsiders that go off at big prices. This means that even if a bookmaker's margin on a race averages 2 per cent a runner, it is likely to be 1.5 per cent on the popular runners.

Just a few horses in every race generate most of the action. When the Aidan O'Brien-trained Yeats won his historic third Ascot Gold Cup last Thursday, he beat 10 others. There was £182,550 in bets of £500 or more wagered at the course. Yeats, the favourite, attracted £141,500, the second favourite carried £40,000 and the balance went on two others.

Despite such exposure to favourites, Boylesports chief executive Daniel O'Mahony says that in some situations being generous can work in the bookmaker's favour. The firm tends to give better odds than most others on certain football bets. But it does so for a reason. "What we've found is that people start to see value on both sides, and it tends to spread the risk more evenly," he explains.

There is a perception that bookmakers spread risk by "laying off", that is, betting part of their liability on a particular result with a rival at the same or better odds. However, O'Mahony says that firms only do this rarely. "Laying off will cost you money over time; our response in that situation is to keep cutting our odds, that's how we manage the risk," he says.

Firms such as Boyles and Paddy Power employ odds compilers who work out the initial prices that each will offer on the next day's sporting events. They then advertise these each morning. If a horse or particular result begins to attract a lot of money, they will shorten the odds accordingly.

All this underpins consistently profitable businesses. Paddy Power, Ireland's biggest chain, made €72 million last year from its betting operations, a big increase on the €45 million it earned in 2006. Britain's biggest player, Ladbrokes, which has a large Irish business, made £420 million in 2007, up from £260 million the previous year. Paddy Power's clients bet €2 billion with it in 2007, and lost €279 million, or 14 per cent. The average bet placed by its customers during the year was just over €20, so each bet cost them €2.80.

So can you beat the bookie? Gamblers say the best chance of doing so is by focusing on "value". Dr Patrick Murphy, a statistician (not a gambler) with UCD's school of mathematical sciences, has a working definition of this: value is where the payback exceeds the real odds.

This seems a difficult concept to apply to a horse race, but if you had €1 on every horse trained by Aidan O'Brien and ridden by Johnny Murtagh in group one races at Ascot last week, you would have made €8.25.

This is not an accident. O'Brien trains mainly for Coolmore stud, which breeds and buys top quality horses with the intention of turning them into stallions. To do that, they have win top-level races at high-profile meetings.

It is five years since the bookies last lost at the Cheltenham festival. But every year, horses that have won previously at the course outperform expectations at the festival. Three of this year's four championship race winners had won there previously. That is not an accident either. Cheltenham is a difficult track that does not suit every horse, but brings out the best in others.

Such "rules" are not hard and fast, but another mathematician, Edward O Thorp, developed one that is. A teacher at the University of California, Los Angeles, in the 1960s, he discovered something about the casino card game, blackjack, that reversed gambling's laws. The house edge in blackjack is 5 per cent, but Thorp found that when the deck from which the casino's croupier is dealing contains a large number of high-value cards, the odds swing in the players' favour.

He came up with a system of tracking or "counting" cards, tried it, found that it worked and wrote a book, Beat the Dealer , detailing it. The casinos laughed at him, but banned him when it became clear that he was right.

Thorp moved on to the biggest casino of all, global financial markets, where he started one of the first hedge funds, and made a killing on the break up and reflotation of ATT.

John Law was not so lucky. He took over France's financial system in 1718. To raise money, he started the Mississippi Trading Company, and sold shares, inflating a huge investment bubble. It collapsed, taking the economy with it. Law, who had a murder conviction hanging over him in London, fled for the gambling dens of Europe. History does not record, but the odds are that he never had to pay out.

Best, tested bookies list coming soon !

Matched betting tutorial / Follow up bets

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 10:37:00 +0000

Follow up bets

So, you have placed your initial bet and now have your free bet in your account. Now what?

You now need to place a "follow up bet" to turn the free bet into guaranteed withdrawable cash profit.

This involves placing a bet with the free bet and laying it off in betfair similar to the initial bet.

There two types of follow up bet depending on the type of free bet you have aquired. It is important to understand the concept behind the two types before going ahead with the follow up bet.

The STAKE RETURNED (SR) free bet and the STAKE NOT RETURNED (SNR) free bet.

Stake returned free bets

When you place a bet with an SR free bet and the bet is successful the actual free bet stake is returned along with the winnings, just like when placing a bet with your own money.

For example: If you place a £20 SR free bet at odds of 3.00 you will return £60 (£20 x 3). Simple.

Stake not returned free bets

When you place a bet with an SNR free bet and the bet is successful, the winnings from the free bet are returned but not the actual free bet stake.

For example: If you place a £20 SNR free bet at odds of 3.00 you will return £40 (£20 x 3 - £20).

You will find out which bookmakers offer SR and SNR free bets on the bookies list (coming soon).

Placing a follow up with a stake-returned free bet

If you have a £20 stake-returned free bet with a bookmaker, the follow up bet can be very similar to the initial bet.

Simply find a market and look for the lowest odds allowed. (Bear in mind that some bookies state in their terms and conditions that the free bet must be placed at certain minimum odds. You will also find out this information in bookies list. Let's say for example you find a match between Liverpool and Derby where the odds on Liverpool to win are 1.20.

Now, that you have found a potential market, find the same match in betfair and look for the LAY odds for this outcome. Lets say that Livepool are at odds of 1.25 in betfair. This seems reasonable so you can enter the amounts on your matched betting spreadsheet to calculate the possible outcomes.

As you can see:

If Liverpool win you make £24 in the bookie (£20 x 1.2 - remembering you keep the free bet stake) and lose the £5 liability in betfair.

If Derby win or its a draw you make your lay stake of £20 in betfair, minus betfair's 5% comission, leaving you with £19 and lose nothing in the bookmaker as it was a free bet!

Placing a follow up with a stake-not-returned free bet

Now with a SNR free bet, as you may expect, it is a little more tricky. Because the free bet stake is not returned in the winnings, we need to use higher odds so that if the free bet wins, there is more profit. Look for odds of between 3.00 and 6.00 in the bookmaker. There are two factors that affect your profit yeild when placing a stake-not-returned follow up bet:

The odds - using higer odds increases the profit you will make but also increases the amount you need in betfair to cover the liability.

The closeness of the match in betfair - as always, the closer the match in betfair, the more profit you make.

OK so to find a potential market, go to the bookmaker and look for odds of somewhere between 3.00 and 6.00. When you have found one, locate the corresponding market in betfair to see if there is a close match. Again, try and a few and use trial and error to find the closest match you can, entering the amounts in on the spreadsheet to calculate the potential outcomes, as in the example below. Lets say you find a football match between Arsenal and Barcelona where the odds on Barcelona are 4.5 in the bookmaker and the lay odds of 4.7 in betfair.

As you can see:

If Barcelona win you make £70 profit in the bookie:
(£20 x 4.5 - £20, remember you do not keep the free bet stake).You lose the £55.70 liability in betfair, leaving you with £14.40 profit.

If Arsenal win or its a draw you make your lay stake of £15.05 in betfair, minus betfair's 5% comission, which leaves you with £14.40. You lose nothing in the bookie as it was a free bet, thus making a withdrawable cash profit of £14.30 either way.

Tips:

Timing Your Bet

A few hours before a football match is the best time to do this. Any earlier and the markets at Betfair haven't really got going, any later and the markets can get quite volatile. You'll get a feel for the best time as you make more bets.

Preferred Outcome

Ideally you want to lose at the bookmaker every time. If you could do this, you could just keep piling up winnings in Betfair. If you win at the bookmaker you have to withdraw from them, then deposit it back into Betfair to cover your liability for your next bet. If you win at Betfair you'll have a balance of £0 at the bookmaker and don't have to do anything. It's not a major problem but if you have a choice of two equally good bets, and you think one is more likely to lose at the bookmaker, choose that one.

Matched betting tutorial / Initial bet

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 09:20:00 +0000

The initial bet

Step 1 - Opening the necessary accounts

Select a bookmaker of your choice from the list of bookies (coming soon!). Use the link on the bookies page to ensure you qualify for the offer, open an account & deposit the required amount to obtain the freebet. I recommend getting started with Skybet so the following example uses this bookmaker (although it usually asks for scan of your ID sent to them before aproving your acocunt). Click here to open an account.

You'll also need an account with an exchange in order to LAY off the bet. For most bets we will use Betfair so click here to open an account and use promo code FTB125 when registering. By doing this you will make £25 cash back!

Step 2 - Finding a suitable market in the bookmaker

Now, in order to decide what to bet on, you need to consider the offer. To take the above example of a £20 free bet, you now need to look at any conditions of the offer such as "minimum qualifying odds". This information can be found on our bookies page. For skybet there are no minimum odds so use the lowest odds you can find.

Try this now: In skybet, on the home page click Football then Premiership matches on the left menu. Look down the list for the lowest odds. In the example below the lowest odds are 1.44.

Step 3 - The risk free bit - calculating the lay stake in betfair

Now check if the lay odds in betfair are a close enough match to lay off your bet. Find the same match in betfair:

e.g. go to Soccer Fixtures > *Date of the game* > Middlesborough v Derby > MATCH ODDS.

You will be presented with the following screen displaying the back and lay odds for each outcome. The outcome we are interested in here is Middlesborough, so look at the LAY odds.

If you see a reasonably close match, you can use this Matched Betting Calculator to calculate the necessary lay stake.

Enter: £20 for the bookmaker stake

1.44 for the bookmaker odds (as in skybet)

1.51 for the lay odds (as in the pink box in betfair.

By entering these amounts into your spreadsheet, the figured below will be calculated as shown.

The amount you need to lay in order to back up your stake.

The amount you need in betfair to cover the liability.

The acceptable loss you will incurr in order to obtain the free bet.

As you can see if Middlesboro won you would make £8.80 in skybet and lose the £10.06 liability in betfair.

If Derby won or it was a draw you would make £18.74 in betfair (your lay stake minus betfair's 5% comission and lose the £20 deposit in skybet.

This leaves you with an acceptable loss either way of £1.26

Step 4 - Placing the bets

Have a look around a few games, using trial and error to find the lowest acceptable loss.

Once you have found one that you are happy with, you can now place the bet in both the bookmaker and betfair.

In skybet, tick the Middlesborough box and press "Bet Now" and proceed to stake the £20.

In betfair, click the PINK box corresponding to middlesborough and type in the calculated lay stake in the box on the right. This will show the liability and should match the amount calculated on the spreadsheet as below.

Submit and confirm the bet. When the game has ended, the winnings will be credited to either betfair or skybet, depending on the result and you will return your total stake minus the acceptable loss as calculated.

You will also be credited with the £20 free bet.

Matched Betting Explained

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 11:06:00 +0000

Earning money online from matched betting can be a very lucrative profession, if not quite a dull one. But I find it interesting and most profitable of any I have seen before. Matched betting involves visiting online bookmaker websites and opening up betting accounts. You then make a bet to qualify for another free bet or bonus, and you match this bet by making a lay at an online betting exchange. Therefore you make this first bet at the account at no risk, so you don't lose any money. Then you qualify for the free bet or bonus, which you do the exact same thing with, and in doing so you end up with the free bet or bonus as profit. After taking advantage of one free bet or bonus at the online bookmaker site, you move on to the next bookmaker. There are thousands to join and take advantage of, and so you have a consistant income of money thanks to all the bookmakers and offers available today.

Understanding The Matched Betting Theory

Probably the hardest part of matched betting is getting your head around the actual concept behind the scheme. As mentioned before, you are making bets with newly registered bookmaker accounts, which qualify you for a free bet or bonus. For example, Sky Bet usually have a promotion for all new customers; bet £20 and receive a free £20 bet. So with this bookmaker you would sign up, make a £20 bet (which you lay off at an exchange) and so you qualify for the free £20 bet. You do the same with this, make the £20 free bet (lay off at the exchange) and in the end you will magically end up with £20 profit. The hardest part is explaining an exchange, and talking about how the bets are made with no risk.

Using Betting Exchanges

There are a few betting exchanges currently available online, with the most famous one being Betfair. At an exchange you can place bets as usual, but you can also lay bets. When you lay a bet, you are taking the place of the bookmaker. You are basically betting against an event happening, and at an exchange you set your odds and take other users money. Say you lay Man Utd to win the Premiership at odds of 2, and accept a £100 bet. If Man Utd win the Premiership, you have to pay out that users stake (£100) times by the odds (2) equalling £200. This is a loss of £100. However if Man Utd don't win the Premiership, you would get to keep that persons £100 bet stake. This is how online betting exchanges work; they allow people to take the place of a bookmaker, and this means they can accept money as stakes for bets from other online users.

Hopefully now you will understand how to make a bet with no risk involved. Imagine the £20 Sky Bet promotion mentioned earlier. If you sign up to Sky and then Bet £20, you get a free £20 bet. So if you were to place the £20 bet on Arsenal to beat Liverpool in a football match at odds of 3, and then you go to the betting exchange and lay Arsenal to beat Liverpool at odds of 3 with a stake of £20. This is a no-risk bet; if Arsenal beat Liverpool you win £60 (£20 bet x odds of 3 = £60). This is a profit of £40. At the betting exchange you would have lost £60 (£20 bet x odds of 3 = £60 payout). This is a loss of £40. The £40 profit from winning the bet will cancel out the £40 loss from paying out at the exchange. On a side note, if Liverpool draw or beat Arsenal then you lose the £20 bet at Sky Bet, but you get to keep the £20 punter's stake at the betting exchange. Again, this leaves you in exactly the same position as where you started. But now you know how to make a qualifying bet at no risk, and then when you get the free £20 bet with Sky Bet you do exactly the same thing. Use the £20 free bet on an event and lay the same event at the same odds (or as near as possible) at the exchange. No matter what happens, you will end up with the free bet as a profit - so in this instance you end up with £20 profit.

The whole process of matched betting is really hard to explain, but hopefully you have a good idea of how it works now. Remember that this is the hardest part of matched betting; getting your head around the concept. Re-read this article until it finally sinks in, and hopefully you will understand exactly what goes on. It is also very hard to explain that the idea of matched betting eliminates the complete gambling aspect involved in placing bets. Obviously you have to place bets at online bookmakers, and lay bets too, and so yes this is gambling. However they do not realise that you are gambling at no risk, whatever you win is opposed by whatever you will lose at the exchange. If you research matched betting you will realise that there is no risk involved in terms of placing the bets, and aslong as you are careful you can easily bring in a few thousand pounds profit in a months time from just a few hours work.

Disadvantages/Things To Watch Out For

Obviously there are some disadvantages to matched betting too in terms of earning money online as a job. You will need to be at least 18 years old, and own a credit/debit card. You will also have to learn about the idea of matched betting before rushing in, as obviously when placing bets there is a possibility of making human mistakes. Probably the biggest disadvantage of matched betting is that you need some money to start up with, probably around £50. This is for your liability at the betting exchange, as you will need this money in your account for when you have to pay out for bets lost at the exchange. Ideally you should start with around £100 or so, and the more money you start off with the easier you will find it to continue adding to this sum. The final disadvantage of matched betting is the fact that a lot of time is spent browsing bookmaker websites, comparing odds. When you make the no risk bet, you need to find odds to back an event at the online bookmaker website, and these odds need to be as near as possible as the odds to lay that same event at the exchange. The closer the figures then the higher the profit at the end of the day, and so it is quite important to spend some time looking for matching odds.

Thankfully there are Internet forums and services which can be used, where people post arbs or close odds (where the odds to back an event are higher then then odds to lay an event). Arbing is very similar to matched betting, but instead of going after bookmaker bonuses you are simply making high value bets at odds which lock in a profit. For example, if you were able to get odds of 3 on Chelsea beating Newcastle at an online bookmaker, but the odds to lay this event are only 2 at an exchange, a profit is there for the taking. Bet £1000 on Chelsea to win at the bookmaker, and then lay Chelsea to win at the exchange with £1000 and you will make a nice profit. If Chelsea win, you get £3000 back from the bookmaker and you have to pay out £2000 at the exchange; meaning a profit of £1000. If Chelsea lose then you lose the £1000 bet but you keep the £1000 lay made at the exchange. Arbing is for more serious betters, who have a good idea about betting and shouldn't be considered until you learn how to lay your bets and matched bet for profit.

Matched Betting

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 01:07:00 +0000

Matched betting is the technique of cashing out the free bet and bonus offers from bookmakers without risk by placing risk free bets. Risk free bets are calculated so that regardless of the result you break even on your initial stake in order to cash out the bonus.

Introduction :

Matched betting is the process of obtaining freebets from online bookmakers without risk and withdrawing them as profit.

This tutorial will give you an insight into matched betting with the aim that once completed you will have the necessary knowledge to place your first matched bet. The guide is designed for everyone’s needs so it does not matter whether you have experience of matched betting or are just starting out.

Meanwhile I suggest you to subscribe to Safebets news feed http://feeds.feedburner.com/safebets , to get the latest updates on how to make money with risk - free bets !

Results 23.04.

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 09:14:00 +0000

2 bets
1 winner
1 loser

Let`s continue!
Good luck!