Recent Commentaries | Safehaven.com

Here Comes the Policy Response!

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Fri, 25 May 2012 19:58:23 -0700

It is not a low probability that a cataclysmic event is unfolding in Europe. Over the past twenty years, cataclysms have been anything but rare occurrences (1995, '97, '98, 2000, '01, and '08 come quickly to mind). European finance is not ...

Investing Wisely - Forecasts / Conformations = Results!

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Fri, 25 May 2012 19:56:46 -0700

... take a long look at this 20-year chart. Having a longer-term perspective of a possible future investment will always give you a more consistent bottom line. Comparing C with the SPDR, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) tells a very compelling story.

Merkel's Thoughts on Ticker Tape

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Fri, 25 May 2012 19:05:36 -0700

As the Eurozone crisis rumbles on investors' attention is split across a range of European issues; an apparently imminent 'Grexit' (possibly the ugliest wordmash we've ever heard), strains in the Italian bond market, Spanish property loans ...

Position Yourself for the Rest of 'Conquer the Crash'

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Fri, 25 May 2012 18:58:10 -0700

To this day, I wonder why Robert Prechter's book Conquer the Crash has not been more widely recognized. It described in advance much of what happened in the 2008 financial crisis.

Who's Winning and Who's Losing from Facebook's Botched IPO

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Fri, 25 May 2012 15:29:50 -0700

In less than a week's time, the Facebook IPO has gone from the most-hyped technology event since Google went public into "blame-storming" mode. Details concerning the stock's sudden drop, the market's inability to process orders ...

Welcome to the Currency War, Part 1: Iceland and the Tragedy of the Commons

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Fri, 25 May 2012 14:13:31 -0700

Think of devaluation as the monetary equivalent of the "tragedy of the commons". In a nutshell, if everyone owns something, it is in each individual's interest to grab what they can as quickly as possible, which soon depletes the resource.

Marc Faber, Global Recession 2013 a Sure Thing

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Fri, 25 May 2012 14:07:44 -0700

Marc Faber doesnt make 100% calls very often, sure he makes a lot of calls, but when he make a call that he says is 100% chance of occurance its worth making a note of. When you here a fundamental call always pull out the cycles ...

What Can We Infer From the Gold:Dow Ratio?

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Fri, 25 May 2012 10:10:08 -0700

There is all the talk of Greece leaving the eurozone and we are already seeing a slow-motion runs on Greek banks. The Financial Times reports that €5 billion has left Greek banks in just the last two weeks and the more that ...

Euro to Surge

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Fri, 25 May 2012 09:52:08 -0700

The fortunes of Europe's beleaguered euro currency have been heavily influencing US markets. Both stocks and commodities have been battered down recently by overwhelming euro bearishness. This has proven seriously vexing for ...

General Mills: Food for Thought!

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Fri, 25 May 2012 09:15:41 -0700

General Mills has an impressive dividend yield for the income investor. Its estimated earnings growth is on the mark at about 7.2% and would make a nice contribution to an income portfolio.

Are The Bears Headed For The Woodshed?

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Fri, 25 May 2012 08:40:18 -0700

Respecting the title of this article could stir strong emotions, it is important to set the stage for what the content here represents and what it does not represent. The fundamental content relates to the possible issuance of ...

Sprout-less Gold Tier 1 Capital?

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Fri, 25 May 2012 08:28:00 -0700

Institutional investors tend to prefer investments that are thought to contain the potential for growth, growth = sprouts. An investment has to produce a growing revenue stream - if it doesn't grow it doesn't compound.

The Facebook Fiasco

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Fri, 25 May 2012 07:02:30 -0700

Now that Facebook has done a faceplant the blame game has begun. Those that partake in this pursuit, U.S. regulatory authorities included, are dwelling in the land of futility. The real story is that had Facebook soared instead of slumped ...

Daily Analysis

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Fri, 25 May 2012 06:21:50 -0700

There are no reasons to modify my medium-term and short term preferred scenario. Regarding the short term one I maintain the 'idea' that SPX on May 18 has established the wave (A) within a Double Zig Zag which began on April 2.

The Upswing Seems To Be On Track

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Fri, 25 May 2012 06:07:05 -0700

All our indicators are pointing in the same direction: a short term bottom is probably in place, and we are now in presence of a bounce back.

GBP/USD Heading Towards 1.5603 Support

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Fri, 25 May 2012 06:05:49 -0700

GBP/USD has extended the decline from 1.6302 to settle below the 1.5805 support level, aborting a basing attempt. While we could see a corrective rebound over the next few sessions to unwind an oversold state ...

Could the Global Derivatives Market Tip Over?

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Thu, 24 May 2012 15:17:37 -0700

The picture is rather stark. This is a chart shown in an article at Global Research (www.globalresearch.ca) - Financial Implosion: Global Derivatives at 1,200 Trillion Dollars 20 Times the World Economy. It bears repeating.

SEC Staff Said to End Lehman Probe Without Seeking Action

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Thu, 24 May 2012 15:04:59 -0700

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission investigators have concluded their probe of possible financial fraud at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and determined that they will probably not recommend any enforcement ...

Avoiding the Ugly in the Junior Resource Sector

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Thu, 24 May 2012 12:45:27 -0700

In this excerpt from a talk at the Casey Research Recovery Reality Check Summit, legendary resource speculator Rick Rule makes a strong case for careful, disciplined investing in the junior resource sector, despite the market turning truly ugly.

Containment Theory Blows Sky High: German Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 45 ...

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Thu, 24 May 2012 12:00:00 -0700

The Pollyannas who thought the European recession would be short, shallow, and contained to the periphery have another thing coming. All three ideas were downright silly as I have long stated.

Canadians and Home Mortgages - A Surprising Statistic!

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Thu, 24 May 2012 09:01:40 -0700

Why Read (if you are a Canadian): Because, if accurate, this is a surprising, and arguably foreboding, statistic. Featured Article: An article reports that a recent Bank of Montreal survey reported that 51% of Canadians ...

Charting Momentum in Latest Forex Cycles

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Thu, 24 May 2012 08:39:39 -0700

More evidence of the German locomotive dragged down by the rest of the European continent as German manufacturing PMI dips to 45.0, its lowest figure since May 2009. The French version of manufacturing PMI hit 44 ...

John Taylor of FX Concepts: Euro Will Rebound Before Resuming Drop

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Thu, 24 May 2012 08:29:48 -0700

John Taylor, founder of the world's largest currency hedge fund FX Concepts, spoke with Bloomberg Television's Sara Eisen and Erik Schatzker this morning and said that the euro is poised to rebound ahead of Greek elections next ...

Do What Institutional Investors Are Doing

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Thu, 24 May 2012 08:23:59 -0700

Last week we discussed the New York Stock Exchange's daily New Lows and how they related to the market. Today, we will look at how the market follows what Institutional Investors are doing. As a group, they are responsible for over 50% of ...

Ron Hera and Alasdair Macleod On Why Gold Will Reemerge as a Safe Haven

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Thu, 24 May 2012 08:14:34 -0700

Ron Hera, founder of Hera research, and the GoldMoney Foundation's Alasdair Macleod discuss mining stock valuations, the continuing economic decline across much of the developed world, and how gold will reemerge as the ultimate safe haven asset.

China Manufacturing PMI Softens Again, In Contraction For 6 Months; Defaults and Deferrals on Commodity Contracts; As Long As Pigs Have Wings

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Thu, 24 May 2012 08:07:38 -0700

The Financial Times reports China buyers defer raw material cargos: Chinese consumers of thermal coal and iron ore are asking traders to defer cargos and - in some cases - defaulting on their contracts, in the clearest sign yet of ...

Realigning Markets and Economy

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Thu, 24 May 2012 07:53:15 -0700

In the past several weeks the stock market has given back almost all of its gains since the beginning of the year. What's surprising about this correction is that the action in stocks is completed disconnected from the ...

Schumpeter's Creative Destruction and Nokia's 41 Megapixel Camera Innovation

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Thu, 24 May 2012 07:05:06 -0700

If a company does not have innovative management, or is not free to innovate due to the constraints of excessive regulation and taxation, it is handicapped for failure. The forces of creative destruction decree that if a company does not ...

Where Inflowing Liquidity Goes, The Stock Market Goes ...

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Thu, 24 May 2012 06:40:07 -0700

Where is the Inflowing Liquidity? At the close yesterday, the Inflowing Liquidity had been in Contraction territory since May 16th. On May 11th, it made its first lower/low, so it started to down trend. The next day the market gapped down.

One More Reversal Day, Long Again

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Thu, 24 May 2012 06:32:48 -0700

... the Sigma Whole Market Index (representing the aggregate of 16 US indexes) that yesterday's low was higher than previous low which was also above than previous low (small horizontal red lines) = the downtrend was in a total lack of momentum ...

Daily Analysis

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Thu, 24 May 2012 06:05:32 -0700

We have a short-term tag of war between SPX's EWP, which is suggesting that price is attempting to carry out a 'relief bounce' and the EUR, which has lost the horizontal support at 1.2622 and it is breaching a long-term trend line support ...

Ripping The Bandage

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Thu, 24 May 2012 05:41:03 -0700

As a follow-up to yesterday's article, we take note of the home price data in today's reports. New Home Sales median prices didn't echo the spike in existing home sales, but as I said yesterday it is hard to draw much conclusion from this series ...

EUR/USD Renewed Setbacks Trigger Fresh 2012 Lows

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Thu, 24 May 2012 05:29:06 -0700

EUR/USD's renewed setbacks are continuing to trigger fresh 2012 lows. However, price conditions remain very oversold and unsustainable, with both extreme momentum and net short positions.

Toxic Euro Corroding Gold

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Wed, 23 May 2012 16:11:12 -0700

What's up with the gold price? Not a lot. Gold is down, in fact. So is everything else outside the US Dollar and "safe" sovereign debt. "I think what we can expect is a rate cut from the ECB ...

Our Top 40 Favorite Dividend Champions

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Wed, 23 May 2012 15:49:36 -0700

In part one of this two-part series I laid the groundwork for why I believe that blue-chip dividend paying US equities represent not only a viable, but also a safer investment choice than many give them credit ...

Dumb Money Buying Facebook, Smart Money Accumulating Undervalued Gold Miners

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Wed, 23 May 2012 15:07:15 -0700

We are witnessing a few cautionary signs that indicate a radically overbought U.S. equity and bond market. Stealthily, the precious metals, and mining equities are bottoming. The strong uptrend in the equity markets since ...

The Dollar Oil Price Threat Will Hurry Gold's Role in the System

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Wed, 23 May 2012 14:48:06 -0700

There was much more to Hilary Clinton's China and India trip than meets the eye. It was an acid test of the power of the U.S. to press its political will upon the world. The issue at hand was the U.S. trying to halt sales ...

Notes from the Front Line on International Travel

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Wed, 23 May 2012 12:57:02 -0700

In an excerpt from his presentation at the Casey Research Recovery Reality Check Summit, legendary contrarian speculator Doug Casey remarks on the farcical aspects of international air travel.

The Real Crash

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Wed, 23 May 2012 12:56:23 -0700

I first came to national attention back in 2008 and 2009 when the housing and credit markets imploded. I became known as the guy that other market "experts" laughed at when I warned of trouble brewing in the seemingly ...

Iran Hopes to Export Electricity to Cover for Reduced Oil Demand

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Wed, 23 May 2012 11:54:33 -0700

Against the backdrop of discussions about pending negotiations over its controversial nuclear program and the upcoming deadline of an European embargo on Iranian oil comes a quiet push by the Islamic republic to become a ...

Dollar Backwardation

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Wed, 23 May 2012 11:36:33 -0700

The current financial crisis, may progress to a phase where people demand and hoard dollar bills but take electronic deposit credits only at a discount which increases until electronic deposit credits are repudiated entirely.

Chopp'n Down The AAPL Tree

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Wed, 23 May 2012 10:40:45 -0700

A month ago we warned that AAPL($602) had broken down from a parabolic rise. Despite near universal love for this stock, the failure of that pattern was a warning that a much lower price was the destiny for this purveyor ...

JPMorgan Joins MF Global in Lobbying Wins That Backfire

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Wed, 23 May 2012 09:48:49 -0700

Couretsy Bloomberg News - MF Global Holdings Ltd. argued in a December 2010 letter to regulators that futures brokers didn't need tighter restrictions on how they invest client funds. Ten months later, as MF Global filed for bankruptcy ...

Gold Prices Could Tumble if Dollar Soars

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Wed, 23 May 2012 09:35:27 -0700

Gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, has been moving in tandem with riskier assets such as equities, industrial metals and oil this year, as investors for some reason which is difficult to fathom, have turned to the supposed ...

Bottoming Process or Bearish Acceleration?

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Wed, 23 May 2012 09:27:28 -0700

On May 6 with the S&P 500 trading at 1,369, we presented evidence of slowing bullish momentum. Thus far, we have seen little in the way of hard evidence to suggest a bottom was reached last Friday.

Gold 'Testing $1550' as Stocks Sink, Bund Yields Vanish, Investors Flee Risk for Cash

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Wed, 23 May 2012 09:15:26 -0700

The wholesale gold price bounced from a 4-session low at $1552 per ounce Wednesday morning in London, rallying with the Euro currency as world stock markets slumped.

Housing Showdown-Gary Shilling and Mark Kiesel Go Head-to-Head

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Wed, 23 May 2012 09:07:26 -0700

Housing bear Gary Shilling and housing bull Mark Kiesel of PIMCO debated the state of the U.S. housing market on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart" with Trish Regan and Adam Johnson.

Investment Themes - Risk, Return and Value in Western Canada

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Wed, 23 May 2012 08:52:36 -0700

The challenge current investors face is that sovereign debt default via inflation/currency debasement obviously doesn't create any new wealth but it certainly reallocates it amongst economic participants ...

SP500 1200 or 1400?

safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) — Wed, 23 May 2012 06:27:01 -0700

Yahoo tech ticker debate on where is the next 100 SP500 points coming from. To get to the 1400 the EURUSD (FXE ETF) has to come to the bullish party. Or will the Greek keep the Euro down down down!