Astitva - Search for an Identity

The other side of Oil Economy - Nigerian Protests

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 08:36:33 PST

Lagos Island and part of Lagos Harbour - Nigeria

If we had some oil and gas!!! A thought which may came to the minds of millions of people living in the countries deprived of oil and gas (and subjected to oil shocks). Tensions in Middle East – which will happen constantly – used to give sleepless nights to the governments. A sober condition, if government absorbs the shock the deficit will balloon beyond any control; if they pass it to the common people, law makers will see the protesters on streets in the next day. In both cases foreign reserve will evaporate quickly.

But what’s the situation in oil economies. Let’s take the case of African oil giant Nigeria where the protesters are in streets opposing the recently doubled price of oil (from 65 Naira (0.4$) to 97 Naira (0.6$)). It’s another matter that, after facing severe protests in the streets government reduced the price by 30%. If I can put it in official way “given the hardships being suffered by Nigerians, and after due consideration and consultations with state governors and the leadership of the National Assembly, government has approved the reduction of the pump price of petrol to 97 naira (about $0.60) per litre". But what Nigerians think about their oil assets, I just went through the opinions expressed by people in various newspapers. A number of them are given below,

Nigeria, like most of Africa does not produce anything itself, it is just luck that Nigeria has a commodity that the world wants, when that changes what will Nigeria do then?

...citizens are divided between the very few rich and the very many poor. It’s only thru the fuel subsidy that the poor feels the government. Citizens generate their own electricity and water. We don't have roads and educational facilities. The rich man's children are abroad.

Government through a public/private partnership should first provide steady electricity, good roads and clean water supply before asking Nigerians to make more sacrifice. Politicians should cut their salary and perks.

You have no idea what is like for the ordinary Nigerian! There is no cheap public transport system. The public is transported to work in the majority of states by a taxi system [OKADAS] which are small motor bikes, what do you think they consume? Water? This is why people are protesting, their cost of living has doubled but their wages remain the same, how would you survive?

The Petroleum Products Pricing Agency and the cabals that import petrol in a nation that exports 2M barrels of crude oil/ day, without functioning refinery. A senator's take home pay is $135,000/month.

Petrol subsidies are damaging for the environment, damaging for the Nigeria's economy, and are a subsidy for car owners paid by all - in effect a subsidy for the relatively well off.

The problems are manifold. Even though Nigeria is a major oil producer she doesn’t have a decent refinery to refine the crude to fuel. The result is, Nigeria imports oil for its domestic purpose - an unnecessary expenditure for a long term oil producer. Another constant complain among people is, Petro dollars flowing in to the country is not making its impact on critical infrastructure because of this people need to have oil running their diesel generators.

IMF was pushing for reducing the subsidy on oil for long time. According to Nigerian authorities subsidy was costing an equivalent of $8bn a year. They claim that this money can better spend in infrastructure and social services. An argument, administration was unable to sell to the people. Government claims that the advantage of low price for oil is going to the wholesalers, who in turn sell the subsidized fuel in neighbouring countries at full price.

Let’s consider the first case.

IMF is right, subsidized oil is creating a big hole in government's finances. But the question is what is exactly by subsidy? In the case of India, Korea, China, Germany etc, we can say that government should reduce the subsidy as these countries are buying oil from external market for full price. If government gives heavy subsidies for this imported oil, it will not take much time for the administration to find them in deep financial crisis. But in Nigeria’s case, it has the oil – in fact a plenty of oil. Why Nigerians need to pay heavy price for an item which is so abundant in their country?

It is altogether another matter that Nigeria is importing an 85% of fuel it needed from international markets because of the absence of something called a decent refinery. This is administrations problem, after all it was an oil exporter for a long time. So basically the people need to pay for the inefficiency of their administration. Same is the case with many other petro dollar economies; these countries have resources but lack the refining capacity. So in the end of the day they needs to import oil even for basic needs - the same oil they export will come back in the form of fuel but with higher prices.

What is happening to the amount countries are earning through oil export? Well, there is an excellent economic term defining it - oil curse. If Nigeria wants to change all these needs to go. Only reforms can save the country. First of its urgent to modernize the oil sector, without adequate refining capacity whatever they earned through selling the crude will evaporate by buying the oil from the foreign markets. At the same time the over-dependence on oil is dangerous, if the price of oil come down the nation will suffer a lot. So the country needs to diversify its income base and develop infrastructure - rail, road, electricity etc to attract foreign and domestic investment.

Now let’s consider the second case.

As far as the wholesalers selling the subsidized fuel on foreign markets is concerned, its government’s job to curb it. That why government’s across the world have departments like Customs, Revenue intelligence, foreign trade board, security forces etc. Another problem is wide spread corruption, people are not ready to believe that additional money coming from the rise of the fuel price will be used to develop infrastructure!!! So curbing corruption is very much important to get confidence of people in government.

Conclusion

Nigeria is changing after government started reforms in 2008 - modernizing banking system, curbing inflation, prospering telecom sector etc. Change is reflecting in the growth rates also. In 2008 economy grew by 6%, in 2009 it grew by 7% and in 2010 the growth rate touched 8.4% - decent rate for an African emerging market. But to sustain the growth government needs to push more reforms, but sensible ones. At the same time people also have to realize that, it will be very much painful to live in the reform years but if their country needs to place themselves on a firm track practices needs to be changed. After all, Nigeria needs to pull out 70% of her population from living below the poverty line.

Sajeev.

Photo Courtesy: wikipedia

A Tale of Two Countries - Part II Pakistan

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 11:00:41 PST

To read Part I see : A Tale of Two countries - Part I Myanmar

In Pakistan, Currently, the dangerous war of institutions (triangle one) is going on. Three sides of the triangle are occupied by all powerful army, civilian leadership and the Judiciary. The immediate future of the nation depends on who will come successfully out of this battle?

The recent crisis started with the US air raid of Abbottabad (located in the Hazara region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province) which killed al-Qaeda chief. In fact it was not started all of a sudden, the pressure was always there. Judiciary becomes more assertive after sailing along with the anti-Musharraf protests; Army, after facing a fatal blow to its prestige because of Abbottabad air raid, PNS Mehran naval attack, restive western borders, continuous bomb blasts in Pakistani cities wants to regain its old image; civilian leadership after passing through close to a decade long military regime want to prove themselves.

Well, the battle field became ready when Mansoor Ijaz (a Pakistani origin US business man) claimed that, he was asked by Pakistan's then ambassador to US 'Husain Haqqani' to deliver a secret letter to US admiral Mike Mullen seeking protection from a possible military coup (after death of 'Bin Laden' on May 2 the fear of coup was running high in Islamabad). In return for the protection, letter offered to abolish a part of Country's powerful spy agency - ISI. I am still curious, why Pakistan's ambassador selected a middle man to deliver the letter? After all the relationship between the Pakistan and US is better than that of Iran and US. Anyway 'Haqqani' lost his job.

Pakistan's president's immediate visit to Dubai raised the speculation of an immediate coup further. It is not clear whether Army was trying for a coup. According to Ijaz, DG ISI Lt. Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha visited Persian Gulf countries around the same time seeking support for the coup. An interesting part Army omitted when dragged the government to Supreme Court in the now famous 'Memogate' episode. This incident was followed by war of the words between civilian and military leadership of the country.

In December, Pakistani PM warned that he would not tolerate a 'state with in a state'. Later army chief Gen Kayani clarified that military is not planning any coup. Later Premier Mr. Gilani removed Defence secretary - a three star general and a traditional intermediate between government and army - for alleged misconduct. This action led to an emergency meeting of top level army officials. It is interesting to see that the civilian leadership is putting a brave stand before the mighty army. On the day of ousting the defence secratary military issued a release saying that government’s statements could have "very serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences for the country". They stopped short of elaborating what these consequences are.

So what will happen next? Pakistan already went through a number of coups in 1958, 1969, 1977, 1999 - the most recent one. Will history repeats itself?

Supreme Court's recent order asking government to co-op with a corruption investigation against the president Mr. Zardari only made the situation worse for the civilian government. It didn't stop there, court accused Premier Mr. Gilani for 'Willful disobedience' and issued a contempt of court notice for implementation of NRO and asked to appear before it on January 19.

For Army

Will Army try to stage a coup? I guess no, when the country is passing through economic turmoil and increasing attacks in the western border a coup may be disaster for army. Moreover, after Mushraff era both people and judiciary are very much active. Above all, whatever be the case current government was elected by people, pulling down it may not go down well both internally and externally. It may not only invite sanctions but also cut down the aid significantly. At this stage, when the date for pulling out from Afghanistan approaching faster, a coup may be the last thing Washington can imagine. Another possibility is cutting down the extension of 3 years given to General and DG ISI's, which will force both of them to retire. I guess, government may not go for any such drastic steps.

For Civilian Government

Memo scandal and its handling badly hit administration. Even though government hit hard against army, the foundations of government is getting weaker day-by-day. Cases against the president are still in court, economy is in crisis, cities are rocked with bomb explosion every now and then, government is not able to sell the importance of relations with US to people. In such a situation only a fresh elections can improve the situation. Will the ruling party go for fresh elections? After all, there is no guarantee that people will re-elect PPP back to power.

For Judiciary

This is leading to a dangerous clash of institutions which can set wrong precedents for future. So it is important for Judiciary to intervene at correct time without crossing the marks between executive and Judiciary. At the same time they have to make sure that nothing is going against constitution. They should not over act, out of three institutions only the executive is directly elected by people.

For India

In such a situation, we can serve ourselves best by keeping quiet. We don’t have to say anything; Indian officials should strictly refrain from adding any extra or unwanted comments. At this point of time we should not take any radical actions in Afghanistan theatre also, apart from the one’s which are necessary for protecting the interest of the nation - that too not overtly. Any such actions will be perceived as survival issue on other side of the border.

This is Pakistan's crisis, a crisis which country needs to sort out own its own. This provides one of the biggest opportunities in the recent times for Pakistan to build and strengthen their institutions. It’s their battle; let them solve it. We call can hope that the country will come out of the crisis successfully.

Conclusion

Both Myanmar and Pakistan are passing through some of the critical moments. Their future is depending on the actions they will take now. In Pakistan, it’s the struggle of the institutions and the fate of her neighbour – Afghanistan. In Myanmar it’s about opening a closed country to the world of opportunities. As Indians – India shares a long border with both countries – we also have a stake on the development of and progress of both countries. If the countries are taking right decisions it will bring stable peace to South Asia and South-East Asia.
Sajeev.

A Tale of Two countries - Part I Myanmar

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 10:58:27 PST

Cargo ships on the shores of Yangon River Myanmar

Myanmar is going through an interesting phase. Even one year back hardly anyone believed that changes can happen in this resource rich country - Once part of British India. Life seems to be constant in this part of the world, once ruled by British. Myanmar regime seems to be happy with their limited ties with the outside world – deep ties with her north eastern neighbour and membership in ASEAN. In other parts of the world Burmese Junta was a symbol of repression. But the quick reforms in the country were a surprise even for a dedicated Myanmar analyst.

What forced this change is still a matter of debate. It can be the desire to remove the tag of outlaws; it can be the desire to develop the nation; a desire to escape from the pressing sanctions; to escape from the tight embrace of northern neighbour; influence of Arab springs etc… Anything can be the reason.

Whatever it may be, the speed of change is amazing. Military regime which didn't accept foreign aid workers during the last devastating cyclone is willing hold talks with foreign negotiators, signing peace treaties with tribes in the restive eastern border, freeing political prisoners including pro-democracy leader ‘Aung San Suu Kyi’ and leaders of the previous anti-regime leaders, allowing trade unions and peaceful protests…

Stopping the construction of controversial Myitsone dam and other projects, that too in the name of the people, was really shocking for Myanmar watchers. What forced Myanmar to take such a drastic step which burned the hands (it’s a 3.6 bn+ USD project) of her northern neighbour?

As the regime of Twan Shwe is moving ahead with reforms, dividends are flowing in,

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppé, in Myanmar this week, said Monday that France and the EU would respond "positively and in concrete terms to the significant gestures" from Myanmar's government. He also announced an increase in bilateral aid.

Australia said it was removing some Myanmar citizens from a list of individuals subject to financial and travel restrictions, though it retained an arms embargo against the country

The U.S. announced Friday it would resume full diplomatic relations with Myanmar, following its release of scores of high-profile political prisoners after years of pressure from Western leaders.

If Myanmar opened the markets and move ahead with pro-democracy policies the resource rich country (Myanmar is rich in natural resources like natural gas etc) will be able to integrate with outer world and attract foreign investment. This will able to create more employment opportunities and raise the industrial production in the country.

Outdoor market, Yangon, Myanmar

But the million dolor question is how far the current military backed regime can move ahead with reforms? By-election may be ok, but the game is totally different in the case of full general election as there is all possibility that the army will lose the majority in parliament. The scenario may not come today but in the future it will be. Will the people in uniform, who enjoyed power for a major part of country’s independent history, be ready to go back to the barracks? Will they be ready to live without enjoying the fruits of power and live under a civilian government?

If Myanmar is able to implement more reforms western governments will ease sanctions. Financial sanctions may be the first one to go; arms embargo may be in place for longer time. But the question is will the Army cross the line in reforms, after which there will not be any U turns?

Well, it’s an interesting question. I think the army will move ahead with reforms, a civilian government may come back to power. It may not be a full civilian government - a sort of in between, where army will have some sort of veto on critical issues. All depend on future civilian leadership, how far they will be able to assert themselves in the office, at the same time without hurting the army.

Another thing is China factor. Chine have significant investments on the country, there hope for a land access to Indian Ocean Sea lines laying in Myanmar (Gwadar link passing through the restive provinces of Pakistan is already facing practical and security difficulties). It will be easier for China to deal with a military regime which depends completely on them for arms and other critical inputs than a pro-western government. Moreover Chinese ethnic tribes have considerable influence in Burma - Chinese border. Still I think China will accept the new leadership and modify their plans accordingly to suit the changed scenarios.

In such an evolving scenario what should Indians do? Our interest is in engaging with both civilian and military leadership. Even if military lose power in the next full elections they will continue to have a say in government decisions. It is important for us to create an eastern gateway to sea for our landlocked north-eastern states through Myanmar. This will be helpful for both countries; Indian investment in infrastructure will help both countries. Moreover our land access to SE Asian countries goes through Myanmar only. So it is important for Indian government to engage more with civilian and military leadership. A joint exercise on Counterinsurgency with Myanmar army in Indo-Myanmar border can be an initial step, along with providing more scholarships for Burmese students to study in India.

Let us hope that Myanmar will come out of the deep trench they built for themselves and effectively engage with rest of the world.

Sajeev.

To read part two see : A Tale of Two Countries - Part II Pakistan

Photo Courtesy: Wikipedia

Election promises, Is that what people need?

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 07:50:37 PST

As January advances through her third week, temperature is going further down. Last day my friend was complaining about the low temperature in the recent Bangalore nights. It was lower than the previous year, but compared to northern India we in Deccan are blessed with a comfortable weather. But this low temperature doesn’t create any problem for the promises coming out of various party head quarters in Delhi. Water in Yamuna may reduced to the dangerous level threatening the existence of beautiful TajMahal, but the political promises cooked in capital is increasing its strength day by day.

I was going through the election promises by various parties, but what shocked me were two reports about the plight of rural society. According to a report on The Hindu,

"Four days after she was beaten up, stripped and paraded in her own village, 42-year-old Dalit widow Rekha Arun Chavan wonders if she would have lived a life of more dignity had she been born in an upper caste." What was her fault? Her son allegedly eloped with a Maratha girl.

The second report (TOI) was form Kutch,

"As part of age-old practice of branding kids in the supposed belief that it will cure them of their ailments, a two-and-a-half-year-old girl was branded twelve times on her abdomen in the remote Vagad village of Kutch district...girl was branded with hot iron on her lower chest and upper part of the abdomen."These are not isolated cases happening in some remote locations of the country. When the recent BBC show mocked our culture we were all standup against the mighty broadcaster against the show. But are we really prepared to stand up against the weakness in our society?

People in Uttarakhand will be more interested in living with their own hard earned money than government's unemployment allowance. Give them an opportunity; they will make the state the ‘Switzerland of India’ - original promise given to them while creating a separate state. More than reservation minority (as well as majority) need assistance for education and starting up new busines.
So as the case with Punjab, Hindustan Times reports that,

"According to official data of the poll body, a total cash of Rs 18.84 crores was seized by these teams, while other seizures included - poppy husk 2,101 kg, illicit foreign liquor 36 lakh Milli Litres (ML) and 82,782 bottles of country wine."

The amount mentioned is not in some thousands or lakhs, but a whopping 19 crores; from where this unaccounted money came?

The promises should be something which gives people a hope to live, not something which will divide them further. A hope which will make them believe that we are also a part of society, instead of making them believe that they are separate by strengthening the division based on caste and religion. A hope which guarantees that they will get equal opportunity, instead of classifying them based on their birth - which in any way is beyond our control. A guarantee that they will get quality education and other government services on an equally likely basis instead of begging (and paying) in front of officials for getting the benefits they are legally entitled to. Let's create a manifesto which will be forward looking instead of pulling the back.

Sajeev.

Death in Ethnic Violence crossed 3000 in South Sudan

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 10:49:59 PST

A village in South Sudan - In the expectation of a normal life

Last year many people across the world especially in Africa thought that finally there will be peace in Sudan. If not economic progress at least the fighting will stop, the oil money will help the country to develop infrastructure and provide basic facilities to the people. These were some of the hopes and aspirations when the country becomes independent in last year after a plebiscite. But the future kept something else in its reserve – deadly cattle raids and massacres.

Well it didn’t take much time to realize that peace is still a mirage in this part of Africa. After independence, when one enemy left the screen it didn’t take much time to find another enemy in the home itself. In the recent cattle raids and following massacres more than 3000 people are already killed - and there is all possibility that the number might increase as the tribes are still fighting. Cattle raids and tribal violence were not rare in Africa. It is part of the region’s history for some time. Modernity only made these tragic adventures and bloody sports of opposing tribal’s much more lethal and tragic by providing AK 47s and other guns.

According to the reports,

"According to Joshua Konyi, the commissioner of Pibor County and a Murle, 2,182 women and children and 959 men were killed, 1,293 children were abducted and 375,186 cows were stolen...He said Lou Nuer fighters had mercilessly hunted down civilians who were cowering in the bush. Other Murle leaders said hundreds of women had been chased into a river, where they drowned...In late December, the column of Lou Nuer fighters began marching toward Pibor, burning huts along the way. The United Nations rushed 400 peacekeepers to Pibor, trying to defend the town alongside about 400 South Sudanese government troops"..

Well this small company of 800 troops may not be able to protect the tribes and defend the city of Pibor along with vast stretches of African Savanna. In the Middle East, politicians, economists, strategists are worried about the possibility of an Iranian blockade of Hormuz strait. Here in this corner of the world there is no space for any doubts, if the foreign troops are not deployed immediately there will be much more massacres.

Sajeev.

Image Courtesy: Wikipedia

Lokpal Bill - All in the name of Federalism

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 09:48:16 PST

Purely legalistic, technical reasons instead of moral or natural ones - This is what we can define the pandemonium we saw in the Parliament during the discussion of Lokpal Bill, the way Upper House behaved in the last day of her Winter Session. Especially the ballooned reasons like - attack on federalism, invading rights of states etc more looked like excuses than arguments.

I am not going to the merit or drawback of Lokpal. Even after these much debates I don't know how it will stop corruption; how it will protect a street vendor from paying money daily to the Police; I don't know how it will protect a person who is forced to use a low quality service from the state than he deserve; I don’t know how it will help in moving a file from one table to another; I don't know how it will help people who are buying mineral water from railway stations, bus stands, tourist places etc from paying amounts above the MRP (even the relatively simple consumer laws didn’t able to stop this)... I don't know many of these things.

Corruption is not specific to any region or state. It is a nationwide phenomenon, people can tell stories of corruption from different parts of India; the language may be different but the core will be same. If you want to prevent - I will not say prevent better word may be 'try to prevent' - corruption you need to have national level action plan, atleast national level framework. A framework which every state should implement - above that they can make more severe laws. If left this to the states then we it may take another decade to for all the states to pass these laws. As I mentioned in my previous article related to the discom crisis, even after coming in to force in 2003, there are stated which didn’t implemented the law yet.

One of the reasons for Anna Hazare's second fast failed to attract people may be their belief in government – as Parliament took the issue finally something will happen. This something may tied them to the indoors. So it is the duty of both government and the opposition to discuss the issues in parliament, people are not interested in a lengthy debate on federalism, not on whether the law should be under article 252 or 253 but an output. An output which will force the officials to think twice before forcing the common man to fill their pockets. This is what people expect form the lawmakers in the next parliamentary session.

Sajeev.

Iraq - Will the sectarian tension leads to disintegration?

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 05:37:11 PST

Iraq - one of the prominent countries in the Middle East, the cradle of Mesopotamian civilization, is also a region which came under a wide verity of prominent empires in the world. In her recent history US attacked and toppled the regime of Saddam Husain, followed a long running bloody insurgency and sectarian violence. But after a US troop surge in the early 2007 there was some improvement in the ground situation; by the end of 2007 Iraq slowly came back to normal state.

2010 General Elections

This normal behavior led to ‘Status of Forces Agreement’ (SOFA), according to which US troops withdrew first form the cities by the end of June 2009 and completely out of Iraq by 2011 December end. Elections were conducted on time - even though it gave fractured results. In the last one conducted on 2010 (March 7) Iraqi National Movement (al-Iraqiya) led by Ayad Allawi won a total of 91 seat (out of 325) making it the largest alliance. Incumbent Premier Nouri Al-Maliki's ‘State of Law Coalition’ came second with 89 seats. Well, people selected their leaders, but no one got outright majority. These results roughly followed the sectarian division. After months of difficult negotiations Nouri Al-Maliki's become the Premier according to a US backed power sharing agreement.

The solution was destined to fail as it is difficult to have a long term co-op between forces that are not in good terms with one another. Coalition navigated through difficult waters till US military left the country. One of the main problems was, people are viewing each other more as a Shiite or a Sunni than as national leaders. Maliki is not considered simply as a premier but a Shiite premier, same is the case with other leaders too. A dangerous situation when the state and the religion are not separate, as I pointed out in previous articles religion should not interfere in politics; it’s strictly personal, limited to the person.

So when the leaders are taking the sectarian divides in to politics it is destined to make problems. In a stormy situation like the one in Iraq, leaders need to navigate through the water with considerable care - there personal feelings should not interfere in political decisions. Most importantly they should not make use of sects for consolidating or gaining power.

Crisis - Arrest warrant against Vice President

The recent crisis began when 'A day after the United States withdrew its last combat troops, Iraq faced a dangerous political crisis Monday as the Shiite-dominated government ordered the arrest of the Sunni vice president [Tariq al-Hashimi], accusing him of running a death squad that assassinated police officers and government officials....The government made its case against Mr. Hashimi in a half-hour television broadcast that was as aggressively promoted as a prime-time special. In grainy video confessions, three men said they had committed murders on Mr. Hashimi’s behalf. They said they had blown up cars, attacked convoys with silenced pistols and were rewarded with envelopes containing $3,000 in American bills... [1]'. Vice President fled to Kurdistan area, which is beyond the reach of Maliki's forces. Later Mr. Hasimi vehemently denied the charges on television.

'In addition to seeking Mr. Hashimi’s arrest, Mr. Maliki has recently sought a vote of no-confidence from Parliament against another Sunni leader, a deputy prime minister, Saleh al-Mutlaq, for calling Mr. Maliki a “dictator” in a television interview.' Well, the damage is done. Whatever be the reasons Maliki had, the timing - just after US troops left - and concentrating on Sunni leaders made an impression on the people - especially in ‘al-Iraqiya’ coalition - which later boycotted the parliament and cabinet meetings.

Demands for Autonomy

Next scenario was expected, demands for autonomy from Baghdad- in the lines of Kurdistan - started coming from the Sunni areas. In between the normal atmosphere of Iraq went back to critical with a series bomb blasts in the country, which invariably ends up in killing more people. If the trust deficit among communities didn’t filled up properly the country may go back to days of violent sectarian crisis, which can also lead to the dismembering of the nation in sectarian lines or end up as a loose federation of thee groups - each led by Kurds, Sunnis, Shiites respectively. Without international forces in the ground and high intensity of arms among people the sectarian violence can reach dangerous levels.

It is the time for central authority to act fast and reach a consensus. If the Premier tried to consolidate his authority by expelling his opposition it can end up in another dictatorship. In a heavily armed region like Iraq - running a dictatorship may prove too costly. We know what will be the results of never ending warfare in the form of Afghanistan. There is no doubt an all inclusive government is an invitation for deadlock and paralysis. But this is the way forward for Iraq, at least till the political institutions matured enough to enable a permanent democratic environment. If not only time call what is in store for Iraq.

External Forces

Actions of Shiite Iran and its arch rival Sunni Saudi Arabia will also be critical in case Iraq is heading towards a bloody sectarian violence. If one started involving in the internal matters of Iraq it may not take much time for the other one to follow.

Summary

Hope that better sense will prevail and the pressure from inside and outside will force Iraqi leaders to take the route of consensus and national building. The irony is Iraqi's may have to see more bloodshed, poverty, poor infrastructure etc even after having blessed with huge amount of Oil and Gas.

Sajeev.

[1] New York Times Dec 19, 2011

Discom crisis and Indian power sector

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Sat, 31 Dec 2011 23:48:43 PST

Power, in both of its meanings, is one of the most sought after thing in the history of humanity. The important thing associated with power is, it's always short in supply. India too is not an exception, however in this article we are considering the meaning - energy.

Current Production

According to the information from the Ministry of Power (GoI - Nov 2011) we are producing 1, 85,496.62MW of power. Thermal power dominates with 65.66% (Coal - 55.45%, Gas - 9.56%, Oil - .64%), Hydro power contributes 20.88%, and rest is contributed by Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources. In terms if installed capacity, state sector contributes 45.07% (83,605.65MW), centre contributes 30.76% (57,072.63MW) and the private sector's share is 24.16% (44,818.34).[1] The irony is, we are losing a good percentage of this rare entity through Transmission and Distribution (T&D) loses. Even though the government is proposing schemes like Restructured Accelerated Power Development & Reform Programme (R-APDRP with an outlay of 51,577 crores INR) it is yet to see how far we will be able to reduce the T&D loses including thefts.

We never produced enough power - If I can borrow a line from KPMG report on 'Power Sector in India - Jan 2010'

'A short peek at our past performances indicate that during the last three five year plans (8th, 9th and 10th), we have barely managed to achieve half of the capacity addition that was planned. As we enter the third year of the 11th five year plan, we have already seen slippages on the planned approx. 79 GW capacity addition.'

This clearly indicates that, in many cases we restricted our needs according to the availability of power instead of doing it in the other way - increasing the availability according to our needs. I still remember the days when there was an official load shedding in Kerala - a sweetened English word for power cut - of 30 minutes in between 6.30 to 9.30 (a cyclic) in the night (unofficial power cuts are extra); people used to finish everything before the stipulated slot or postpone. This slot will advance by 30 minutes after each week.

How much improvement we made in this area? Are we able to supply electricity 24*7 to industry and households? Still we need to shut down the supply to villages to maintain the supply to the cities? According to the reports,

"The average per capita consumption of electricity in India is estimated to be 704 kWh during 2008-09. However, this is fairly low when compared to that of some of the developed and emerging nations such US (~15,000 kWh) and China (~1,800 kWh). The world average stands at 2,300 kWh...[2]"

Electricity Act - 2003 and Reforms

Electricity Act - 2003 tried to reform the sector. This provided non-discriminatory open access over intra-state transmission and distribution networks along with re-organization of Electricity Boards, splitting the boards to three separate - Generation, Transmission and Distribution - units and privatization of power distribution sector. Many states are yet to swallow the reforms.

Problems in privatizing power distribution sector are multiple. Even if government wanted to bring in efficiency and competition by privatization it may not be as easy as in the case of other sectors, say telecoms. In the case of Electricity, bringing down the price using increased competition form (and in between) private sector is more of a dream than a practical reality even though it can increase the efficiency. After all electricity is not a commodity like Santhoor, Lux or like mobile connections which can be produced and distributed easily - here the scale and complexity are totally different.

Moreover this capital intensive sector required long term investments. Increasing the price of electricity is another tedious task, governments will think thousand times before increasing the rates as it will affect their chances in election. When the companies are working as departments, governments could have gave crores of rupees as budgetary support - just like the amount flowing from Union Budget to Railways, but it’s not a easily workable solution in the case of companies.

Disom Crisis:

So we have a problem - in fact we have multiple problems, we are not producing enough electricity (including the contribution from Private sector), we are not able to transmit this electricity efficiently and we are not able to distribute it properly to the end users 24*7.

Now let us come to the case of two privatized discoms, BSES (Reliance Infra and Delhi Government) and TDP (TATA Delhi Power - Tata Power and Delhi Government) - companies currently distributing power to Delhi. The recent twist in the story is something like this - Power generation companies including NTPC, which supplies a considerable portion of power to BSES - give deadline to the company for clearing the dues after it reached close to 3000Cr. Regulator DERC gave notices to BSES on November 25 asking why its licenses should not be suspended for failing to clear huge dues to the generation companies. According to BS report "The BSES, responding to a notice of DERC last week, presented its financial position to the regulator and said it could raise a loan of Rs 5,000 crores from IDBI bank provided Delhi government gives an assistance of Rs 500 crore."[3]

Well in short words - bail out. If the dues are not paid it may lead to a blackout of 70% of Delhi - a possibility which Delhi government don’t want to see. So government finally agreed for an equity infusion of 500Cr, R-Infra will infuse another 520Cr - which will enable BSES to get a loan of 5000Cr from IDBI. Good solution, problem solved? Of course not. This 5000Cr is not free amount; it’s a loan which needs to be repaid with interest. Assume that 3000Cr will go to the generation companies, then only 2000Cr left which may go for operation expenses. Now if they are continuing with the same policies, there is no doubt that there will be a reply of the same with in some years if not in some months. Now, Delhi government is infusing money to BSES will other discoms sat ideally? After all they may also face pressure on their balance sheets. Well Tata Delhi Power (TDP) also asked for an equity infusion!!!

This may not be an isolated scenario - What is the case in state run discoms? Whether these companies are actually covering their expenses or filling the gap using the money coming from state exchequer?

Some suggestions to solve the problem

The core of power sector is power. First of all, we need to have a comprehensive solution for creating enough power a core high capacity generation centres supplemented with small and medium size centres. Core ring capacity should be more than that of Ultra Mega Power Plants (UMPP). Nuclear or Thermal power could be the ideal choices. In case of Nuclear power, not the 200-300MW reactors, but something in the range of 4-8GW complexes where each unit can produce close to 1000MWe. This capacity should be supplemented by Hydro, Gas fired, Renewable energy plants.

Hope that government's 51557 crores R-APDRP will find a solution for Transmission and Distribution sector. But still we need to find a solution for the management and profitability of discoms - they should be able to sustain themselves. For this to happen government need to come up with some innovative plans - copy pasting the so called PPP, BOT, BOET from NHAI etc may not be applicable to Private companies in this sector as it is.

Sajeev.

[1]. Ministry of Power, Government of India

[2]. KPMG Report - 'Power Sector in India - Jan 2010'

[3]. Reported By Business Standard

Blocking the Strait of Hormuz – Will Iranians really do that?

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 08:32:32 PST

"Closing the Strait of Hormuz is very easy for Iranian naval forces...Iran has comprehensive control over the strategic water way...” Iran's Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari told Press TV – a State run news Channel. Only a day before, Iran's Vice-President Mohammad Reza Rahimi warned that not a drop of oil would be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions are placed against Iran's oil exports.

The narrow Strait of Hormuz separates Oman and UAE from Iran. With 6 mile wide traffic lane (2 mile for inbound traffic, 2 mile for outbound traffic and another 2 mile act as separation median) is the only gateway to open seas for many of the major petroleum producing areas. According to a New York Times report, this Strait carried 33% of all the oil shipped by sea in 2009 (around 20% of all oil traded worldwide). To cover the strait ships needs to pass through the territorial waters of both Iran and Oman.

If Iran, currently under severe sanctions by US and Europe, cut the oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz we may have to see another Oil Shock. Global economy, which is already suffering from various chronic deceases, may need to suffer one more. But the question is will Iran bloke the passage? If it did, will it be able to continue with the blockage?

Let’s take the first question; will it really block the passage? I think they will not be. Firstly, apart from the rhetoric it may not be possible for Iran to do so. This will not only hurt the enemies but their numbered friends as well. This action may not go down well with Chinese - one of the main importers of Mid-East oil and gas. If Iran hopes to block any future economic sanctions in UN it can happen only through China or Russia, as other veto empowered members US (no hope), UK (no hope especially after the recent Embassy crisis), France (in the end it may vote along with US and UK) will vote for sanctions.

Secondly, with one close ally - Syrian administration - facing existential threats, evaporated support from Turkey (a conclusion Iran may already reached after the deployment of NATO radars in Turkey) in multinational forums Iranians may became totally isolated.

Thirdly, by this action they will only end up in supporting US to insert more sanctions on them; as it will be easier for US to push forward more sanctions through Security Council. US, becoming more and more independent of Mideast oil may suffer less in face of Mideast oil crisis compared to Europe and developing countries of Asia. Europe may get supplies from Russia even though it will solidify their oil dependency relationship with Russia. So in the end of the day Iran will end up as a lonely player with more hostile neighbours.

Fourthly, it will become more difficult for Iranians to run the country under water tight sanctions. Without enough refined oil, squeeze on essential supplies it may not be easier for administration to pacify any future revolution - Now-a-days revolutions are not so peaceful anyway.

Consider the next case – Iran blocked the Strait. How long they will able to hold on that with US fifth fleet parked at nearby Bahrain? Apart from the three Russian built attack submarines, and ships loaded with Chinese built anti ship missiles most of the Naal assets are very old - bought form US at the time of Shah. Airforce also faces the same issue. ‘Navy of the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution’ - bigger in numbers than the regular Iran Navy, is also in a similar shape. Many of their bases are in the small islands of Persian Gulf – a vulnerable target to powerful enemy bombing.

In case of attacks - if restricted to sea, it may result in the destruction of major Iranian naval assets. In such a situation if US or Israel attempted for precision strike on Iranian nuclear sites, it may or may not end up with destroying the facility but it will certainly creates more problems. Moreover Iran possesess a good missile system capable of hitting many important targets in the region. This will create problems for US and its allies in the region. If US needed an administration change in Iran they need to wait, such changes should come through the efforts of common citizens otherwise it will only create instability.

But apart from the rhetoric chances for a real blockade of Hormuz strait is quite low. Iran may create some disturbances but it may not enlarge to the level of a naval engagement.

It will in be in the interest of Iranians to solve the problems peacefully. Iran is a country blessed with huge natural resources and geography. Located close to South Asia, Central Asia, Southern Europe and East Africa they can act as a trade source as well as hub for these regions. If assets are properly used and engaged peacefully with other countries they can achieve bigger influence than that of neighbours on other side of Persian Gulf. Europeans will be happy to buy more oil from Iran to reduce the dependency on Russian supplies, US may be happy to get an alternate route for NATO supplies to Afghanistan, relations with Israel may not improve much - but it will reduce the tensions in middle east, Sunni Arab countries may not like a powerful Shiite neighbour. But if both leaders displayed statesmanship, it can stop many bloody sectarian conflicts in the region.

Still a great path is available for Iran to move on. Now it’s on the hands of Iranian administrators to decide in which way they want to proceed, before taking any decision it will be helpful for them to travel in Ethihad airways to Dubai and to see what peace combined with oil money can do for the people. I am sure that everybody wants to write their name in the history using golden letters… the question is who will get the chance?

Sajeev

Athirapilly, Vazhachal and Valparai – The music of water and Hills – Part II

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 06:43:20 PST

For first part read - Athirapilly, Vazhachal and Valparai – The music of water and Hills – Part I

It was not an early morning, still the atmosphere behaved so. I reached Coimbatore stand around 6.30 in the morning, Rajesh reached before me. After walking through the city for some time we came back to Ukkadam and boarded a bus to Pollachi. Well we reached Pollchi and walked towards the bus stands opposite to the one we got down.

From there we got another bus to Valparai. Well only 65km, what we thought was finish Valparai by afternoon come back to Pollachi and take a permit from the forest department to visit TopSlip. Well, let us what happened. Within a short period of time we were out of Pollachi city limits and heading right in to heart of Western Ghats. Our first stop was close to Aliyar dam. This 2.5 sq mi reservoir, constructed on 1959-69 era is located on the foot of Anamalai Hills of Western Ghats. A a 10 minutes long tea break we continued our journey around the reservoir and then slowly the old engine started her assent. It didn’t take much time for us - conductor was the other party - to become friends. His Tamil and my half Tamil someway worked.

After a brief stop at Monkey falls we started counting the hair pins. We need to cover 40 hairpins to reach Valparai, 35 hairpins to reach the top (and then 5 down). From the higher regions dam and the zigzag roads at the foot of the hills created interesting scenery. On the down side visibility started coming down, by the time we reached 30th hairpin, it’s dropped to some metres.

We were close to the back door. Conductor explained about the weather and the beauty of the place. Finally he looked towards me and asked, “Isn’t it looks like Kashmir?” Well I don’t know, I never saw Kashmir except in movies and documentaries. Still I can’t compare it with icy Kashmir. Valparai was different, its displays the beauty of evergreen green forests, its greenery, its density and diversity characteristic of Western Ghats. Aliyar dam in the bottom only added its beauty. As our bus crossed some more hair pins the wind coming inside became colder and colder. Yes, conductor finally got my approval.

Finally we reached the top; tea plantations dotted with trees welcomed us. Cut in to beautiful patterns these plantations, from a distance, looked like the work of a great artist. Bus stopped here and there, homes started to appear close to the roads, and bi trees gave her way to tea plantations. After covering the 35 hairpins up, we started the final 5 hairpins down. Rajesh suddenly jumped out of his seat and started looking here and there, he thought that Valparai was over and we are coming back. It took some time for him to digest the reality. After a short interval we reached Valparai town. Indeed the journey was better than destination, Valparai town looks like any other small town in the plains.

After walking through the roads for some time, we seriously started looking for the nearby places. After much discussion we selected 'Sholayar Dam' as our next destination. You will get direct buses from Valparai junction to the dam area. The tail of the reservoir is visible from a distance itself connected through small channels this channels forms a part of reservoir. Tea plantations - cut in to beautiful shapes - in the sides of the reservoir made it a picturesque area. After walking through the top of dam's wall – visitors are permitted to a certain extent only- we decided to go back to Valparai town. Buses are not so common in these routes, after waited for a long time, waking here and there, sitting, standing etc; finally we heared the sound of a bus.

After lunch, we decided to go to Balaji temple. Another long wait for a bus, this time we need to go to Akka Malai – the highest area in Indira Gandhi National Park (IGWLS&NP) with a maximum height of 8146ft. I looked the tea plantations and slept for some time. After waking up also we are still in the bus and the person sitting next to me told its very close only one or two stops to go. Well in the hilly areas one or stops mean quite a long stretch of road. As the bus charge is very low in Tamilnadu (recently increased after an interval of 10 years) you can’t guess the distance by working out the rates in Kerala or Karnataka. After reaching a point bus started her return journey - we were wondering – where the temple, is it over? But the conductor informed us that in the return journey it will go through the temple route.

Finally we got down and looking for some signs of the temple. We followed an arrow mark indicating temple, and reached a private road suddenly a security guard stopped us and asked somewhat angrily - "Didn’t you see the board?" What board? We looked around for some board. There was a board hanging in the sides of the road with list of things not permitted from that point - which also includes 'camera'!!!

I was wondering after reading the board. Are we showing our power by banning more and more things? If you are in road side and want to take the photo of a butterfly, you need to answer a hundred questions coming from the passerby. If you are taking a photo of an innocent looking old architecture (say a public building) you need to answer another set of questions coming from the gate keeper, custodian etc. All in the name of security!!! Well if it’s some military or strategic area we can understand. But this one... temple is almost 2 km away. If the temple authorities ban the usage of camera in premises it was ok, we could have understand. What is the point of banning it in a 2km long road leading to it? I simply don’t understand.

We reached the temple, almost exhausted. Rain came and gone, sitting on the temple floor we looked the big rain drops coming with all her force only to hit the ground and split to hundreds of pieces. Listening to the sound of the rain and to the voices coming from the vocal cords of thousands of small creatures we spend a good amount of time there.

Finally it was the time to return. From the bus stop close to the temple you can catch a direct bus to Pollachi – only if you reached there in correct time. Sun started setting in the western mountains, by the time we reached Valparai it was dark. Bus stopped there for some time and started the long journey to Pollachi.

The bus was tightly packed. Even for standing there was not much space left. I was sitting in the seconding row from driver’s cabinet- if I can say it as a cabinet. Bus started slowly and went past the hairpins one by one. I was looking to the glass in front of the driver. In many points visibility reduced to some meters. In some areas I can’t even saw the things just some meters in front; head lights didn’t help either. Only the driver knew how he was driving in such visibilities.

Knowing well that I need to wake up all the night, I tried to sleep desperately. But unfortunately the person standing close to my seat was in some other world - thanks to the effect of liquor. He told me a lot of sorry in that journey. Well there was a couple standing front of us - in fact they were not couples - I need to appreciate their talking capacity!!! They discussed everything in that night - about their relatives, neighbours, that lady's current life etc; that too on the top their voice. As we were in the front and there was only one door at the back people need to swim through the human ocean to reach the door. For the above mention group it didn’t matter, shouting at the top of the voice then made their way.

Finally we reached Pollachi, from there another bus tool as to Coimbatore. Around 12 in the night I said good bye to Rajesh and took a private bus to Gandhipuram. From there one more to Salem and around 3 in the morning got a direct bus to Bangalore.

How to reach:

1. Athirapilly & Vazhachal

From Thrissur take a bus to Chalakudy or any bus passing through Chalakudy. From here you will get direct buses to Athirapilly and Vazhachal (both are in the same route - Athirapilly comes first). If you continue through that way you can cross the Kerala - Tamilnadu border and reach Valparai. It better to have your own vehicle, otherwise you need to waste a lot of time by waiting for bus.

From Palakkad side: Palakkad - Thrissur – 66km, Thrissur – Chalakudy – 29km, Chalakudy - Athirapilly - Vazhachal – 32km
From Cochin Side: Kochi – Chalakudy – 54km, Chalakudy - Athirapilly - Vazhachal – 32km

2. Valparai

If you are coming from Tamilnadu you can reach Coimbatore and if you coming from Kerala, there you will get a lot of Coimbatore buses from Palakkad KSRTC stand. From Coimbatore bus stand take a bus to Pollachi. There two buses stands in Pollachi as in the case of Coimbatore, but here the bus stands are close to each other (on both sides of the road). From here you will get buses to both Valparai and TopSlip. For going to TopSlip you need to take a permit from Pollachi Forest office. Here also having own vehicle will save you a lot of time.

From Thrissur side: Thrissur – Chalakudy – 29km, Chalakudy - Vazhachal – 32km, Vazhachal – Valparai (Anamala Road – 65km)
From Palakkad Side: Palakkad – Coimbatore – 56 km, Coimbatore - Pollachi - 40 km, Pollachi - Valparai - 65 km
From Salem: Salem – Coimbatore – 215 km, Coimbatore - Pollachi - 40 km, Pollachi - Valparai - 65 km

After reaching Pollachi you can also visit

Pollachi - Topslip - 35 km
Pollachi - Udumalpet - 40 km
Pollachi - Vaalparai - 65 km (don’t go by numbers, it’s a hill route will take considerable time to cover this length)

Sajeev

Please visit this space for seeing the photos taken during the trip.

Athirapilly, Vazhachal and Valparai – The music of water and Hills – Part I

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 10:25:19 PST

Athirapilly and Vazhachal are one of the most common destinations for annual school tours, atleast in central Kerala. Even though we – me and my friend Gokul – were no longer in school there was no reduction in excitement. After all, the extended monsoon finished her Kerala visit only a couple of weeks back. Heavy monsoon means more water in Chalakudy River which forms a gorgeous water fall at Athirapilly.

We left Bangalore around nine in the night; crossed Kerala – Tamilnadu border and reached Palakkad before sunrise, as it was in the early morning there was not much traffic and we reached Thrissur quickly. Another bus took as to Chalakudy, from there another one more to Gokul’s home. We reached home at breakfast time.

Buses are not frequent in Athirapilly and Vazhachal route. Around 11 in the morning we got one from Chalakudy private bus terminal and reached Vazhachal around 12.15am, of course late for seeing a water fall. After buying the passes (separate passes for camera) we went in (same pass is valid for Athirapilly too). Contrary to the expectations water level was low. Alas!!! The beautiful falls I saw in the pictures remained in the pictures only – atleast for this time.

Still the stepped falls of Vazhachal looked nice – water was getting down through a number of steps to see as if to welcome the visitor. Fences were erected to keep the people from going close to the middle section – everyone warned us about the strong undercurrents. The other side of the river is guarded by hills wearing a green uniform. If I can borrow the words of Gokul, in Vazhachal river is trying to spread her hair as long as possible. Even though, we were in a forest area and close to water there was no escape from sweating.

A short and zigzag side walk, constructed by the department, ends close to a small hotel which serves the fresh fishes from the river – a claim by the owner. We roamed around the area for some time and finally decided to leave Vazhachal and went to Athirapilly. Well, the guard informed us that 'next bus would come at 2.30 only' – an unavoidable fallout for depending on bus. We spent the rest of the time by sitting, standing, walking, watching the various acts of monkeys jumping over the vehicles parked at one side of the road. Finally the bus came and we reached Athirapilly around 3.00 pm.

Athirapilly was crowded with vehicles and people, ranging from school kids to foreign citizens. After showing the passes at the entrance we walked straight to the river. Here a calm river is flowing without knowing that it need to take a deep dive to continue their journey. I suddenly remembered the last seen from Mel Gibson's Apocalypto were the hero will jump from the top of a waterfall.

The advantage in Athirapilly is both sections – before and after the falls are easily accessible for the people. We went to the upper section, were a calm river is flowing without knowing the dangers laying ahead. After spending some time there we climb down to reach the bottom of the falls – where the water actually hitting the rocks. Getting down- through the zigzag path was not so easy; we almost tired by the time we reached the bottom. But the falls were there to refresh and encourage us; the water was hitting the rocks in the bottom and split to hundreds of pieces. Due to the difference in the elevation of riverbed in the top water split in to three streams before coming down with her full power. Gokul told me that if there was enough water instead of three there will be five streams – unfortunately there was not!!!

I spend a good amount of afternoon near to the falls; the high level of water content almost drenched me. As it was getting late, we decided to go back. The zigzag path through which we came down almost looks insurmountable. As always happen in the return journeys hunger and fatigue set in. Finally we reached top and slowly walked towards the road. Gokul was silent for some time – maybe he was thinking about the school days. I simply turned towards the river one more time.

By the time we reached the bus stop, rain slowly started her music. By the time bus came around 5.45 she gained strength and forced us to pull down the shutters. It was a long journey, but the road sides looked more interesting in that evening river appeared and disappeared in one side of the road. We reached Chalakudy by 7pm. By that time the faint sun light giver his way to night. After getting down at Chalakudy private bus terminus we walked towards government run KSRTC stand. By this time Gokul’s brother also joined the company. We went to KSRTC station, after saying bye to Gokul and his brother; I boarded a bus to Thrissur.

I reached Thrissur around 8.30 pm - too early for my plans as I need to reach Coimbatore by 6.30am only. I spend around four hours in the bus stand –looking towards the busses coming in and going out of the station – all seemed to be in a hurry to reach home. Finally around 12.30 I boarded another bus to Palakkad, which reached Palakkad by 1.30 in the morning. Another three and half hours spend on the not so comfortable plastic chair in the stand. Finally around 5am boarded another bus to Coimbatore to see another reserve – Indira Gandhi National Park.

Athirapilly, Vazhachal and Valparai – The music of water and Hills – Part II

Sajeev

Will the N-E transform to India's eastern gateway? An analysis based on 121 days long Manipur blockade

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Sat, 24 Dec 2011 10:26:11 PST

Women's market in Imphal

Blockade... In Wikipedia Blockade is defined as '...an effort to cut off food, supplies, war material or communications from a particular area by force, either in part or totally'. In the war history, you can saw a enormous number of references for blockades. Well it’s during war... but what about peace time? What about cutting of supplies for a part in a nation which believes 'Unity in diversity'?

It is not that blockades never happened in India, for various reasons people created blockades on road, rail etc. But most of it didn't last long; some went on for hours, another for some days. But the recently concluded 121 days of economic blockade and counter blockade in NH 39 (connecting Manipur with Nagaland - one of the two National Highways linking Manipur to rest of India, the other one is NH 53), wrote one of the black chapters in recent Indian History.

North-East is notorious for its deep rooted tribal rivalries; the situation in Manipur is no way better. The fault lines between Meiteis in the Valley and Tribal’s in the hills, between tribals - Nagas Vs Kukies, in between Nagas etc are causing problems for a normal civilian life in the state. There are around 40 militant organizations in Manipur. Even though not unprecedented (as the there was a 60 day blockade in the past), this blockade crossed the limits of a protest even in its wildest imagination. The first one ran from July 31 to Oct 31 and the counter one started from Aug 21 and ended on Nov 29.

Reason? Kuki tribes want to create a new district called Sadar Hills by splitting Senapati district and Nagas are opposing the division. According to reports Kuki tribal’s lifted their blockade when state government signed an agreement with them favoring their demands and Nagas lifted theirs saying that Indian Home Ministry had assured them that there will not be any split without their consent.

The irony is how both of the agreements are possible at the same time? In fact they postponed scenario to a later date. But how long we can continue the status quo? There is no guarantee that same demands will not be raised again. How long we can suffer the pain it creates on the civilian life and strain in inter-ethnic relations?

At the peak of the blockade petrol price touched 200 INR/Liter in Manipuri black markets, even though the government brought in tankers using the other highway - NH 53 - with paramilitary support. Just imagine what happened across the country when the central government raised the price of petrol by some rupees!!!

It is interesting to note that the parliament was in session from November 22 (second blockade was lifted only in Nov 29) and was wasting its valuable time on accusations and counter accusations - whether the Home Minister is party to the 2G scam? Member's alleged harassment by Prime Minister's security personnel, verbal clash between CPI-M and Trinamool Congress members etc.

Can't the members wait for the court verdict and the reports from two parliament committees (where opposition is also a party) on 2G scam? Regarding to the members alleged harassment issue - can't he give a formal complaint to PM or House Privilege committee? Oh... verbal clashes, can't they argue with reason by taking their own slots instead of forcing the entire house to adjourn?

The issue of blockade is critical to the unity and integrity of India. When two ethnic groups are raising contradictory demands political leadership can handle the situation in a better way. A constructive discussion on Lok Sabha regading this issue may results in an agreement and a mechanism to handle the similar situations in the future. But how much time parliament spent on discussing Manipur blockade?

These types of barricades are shows the vulnerability of poor road links between the states. If we are not able to remove blckade from one of the important entry point for a N-E state, then how we can implement our grand vision to open the north eastern border of India to the trade with ASEAN countries? In order to transform the closed NE border to India's eastern trade gateway we have to do much more home work...

Sajeev.

Curious case of Indian Economy - Supporting the outsourcing but opposing FDI in retail

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Sat, 24 Dec 2011 08:54:22 PST

It didn't take much time for the fear to spread its tentacles across the industry. Key people from the lines argued about the additional expenditures the US companies need to accommodate in their balance sheet, if the suggestions became law, how a common man in US needs to shell out extra money to avail the same services in the future, how it will affect the economy and erode the values like open markets, no tariff barriers etc.

Some described it as "efforts to tap anti-outsourcing sentiment ahead of the US Presidential election next year." NASCOM added that "U.S. adopting ‘protectionist' measures like these that restrict free trade and establish discriminatory trade practices". The Hindu reported that "The benefits of commercial consideration will outweigh disincentives through the legislation. Unless the U.S. economy wants to move from open economy to protected economy, these half measures may not work’, the source adds."

You may be wondering, about what we are talking? Well, its name is ‘The United States Call Center Worker and Consumer Protection Act', introduced in the 'House Of Representatives' by Mr. Bishop, Mr. McKinley, Mr. Michaud and Mr. Gene Green. Bill primarily focuses on two main points,
1. "To require a publicly available a list of all employers that relocate a call center overseas and to make such companies ineligible for Federal grants or guaranteed loans.."
2. "…and to require disclosure of the physical location of business agents engaging in customer service communications."

Well, as far as the disclosure of Physical location is concerned there are some waivers. It’s not applicable "...If the communication is initiated by customer, knows or reasonably knows that the person is not physically located in US..." This bill also gives Federal Trade Commission and Secretary of Labor the power for giving waivers and takes decision according to circumstances (although in special cases).

I was wandering how strongly we are currently opposing this anti-outsourcing bill (a way of making trade barriers) and opposing the opening of Indian multi brand retail sector for FDI (removing the trade barriers) in the same breath. The Irony is the reasons we are providing on one issue - anti outsourcing bill - is contrary to the second one - FDI in multi brand retail. If outsourcing is so beneficial for US, then why opening of retail is not at all beneficial for India? If we are implementing innovative solutions for US business - as one of the BPO Promoter said, and helping US economy to grow, why it is not at all applicable in Indian retail supply chain?

In the age of open markets and comparative advantages, we need to fuse the technical know-how and come up with better products and supply chains. If Wal-Mart can handle the logistics so efficiently across thousands of kilometers there should be something we can learn from them. If they are coming here with their experience in handling lengthy logistics networks, efficient supply chains and implementing the same here, it will not only enhance our standards but will create a pool of people with better skills in the area.

According to the report 'The Vegetable Industry in Tropical Asia: India' published in 2008

Amul plant at Anand - why can't we replicate this success?

"...Postharvest losses in India are very high—probably enough to feed at least 20% of the population. According to the Indian Government, US$ 14.3 billion worth of perishable and durable agri-produce is wasted, while > 200 million people remain underfed, and almost half of the children are underweight. Wastage occurs at various stages due to fragmentation of the supply chain, deficiencies in the Agricultural Produce Marketing Act, and inadequate infrastructure (India's Minister of State for Food Processing Industries Subodh Kant Sahai quoted on India Info Line, 2007a, 2007b, 2007c). Rolle (2006) indicated fresh produce losses ranged from 10 to 40% globally, with losses in India at the high end..."

These statistics should be enough to open our eyes towards the seriousness of the problem we are facing. In any scale wastage at the rate of 40% is not an acceptable one especially when Indian hosts the highest number of people living under the poverty line. We need to mechanize our farming sector, improve warehousing, and supply chain and logistical sector. Here is where the technical know-how of foreign companies will play a significant role. If they are investing in cold storage, warehousing sectors – which required significant amount of money, there will be improvements in these areas.

It is not the opening of the markets we need to oppose; we need that energy to be reserved for defending the open market rules, opposing predatory pricing, monopolizing the sector etc. But for all this to happen we need to change our mind set. We can hope that one day the Oranges from Nagpur will reach the market of Trivandrum or fruits from J & K will reach that of Kolkata without significant wastage and enormous change in prices. If implemented properly these reforms will give some air for the struggling Indian economy and brings it back it from slipping in to stagnation... and may bring down the price along with giving a better shares to farmers.

It is not only about opposing FDI. If we shutting down our markets for foreign entities then it will not take much time for the outside world to shut down thiers in front of us...

Sajeev.

Photo courtesy : wikipedia

Is Indian economy slipping from the main Road?

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 08:55:57 PST

Competition is not so easy

As per the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) released by CSO, the industrial growth has reduced to 5.0% in 2011-12 (April - September). It was 8.8% in corresponding period of previous year. According to government the GDP growth in first quarter of 2011-12 was 7.3% and in the second quarter it slipped to 6.9%. In the sector wise break up, services leads with 9.3%; agriculture and industry struggling in the tail end with just 3.2%.

One of the main reasons is attributed to the increase in policy rate by RBI to curb another monster - inflation. Many of the problems can also be attributed to the problems in North America and the Euro Zone crisis, which is already affecting many other countries too. But is that the only reason? Can we accuse foreign factors for all our structural problems?

If we are searching for the number of reforms we successfully executed in the past few years there may not be many things to count. In fact after the sweeping reforms in the 1991, executed under the sword of balance of payment crisis, we went lazy in going forward with more reforms. When UPA II came in to power with a clear majority people expected a broad range of reforms in critical sectors - which are really choking the growth rate. Instead it was scandal after scandals of corruption, non functioning parliament, policy paralysis etc.

Even the most advertised policies too didn’t reach anywhere. Consider the case of much publicized Civil Nuclear Treaty; it’s far from fully operational. Reforms in power sector never saw the light of the day other than some blinking here and there. So is the case in mining, agricultural etc. Now one more thing added to the list - Reforms in Retail. It went back to cold storage faster than it came out.

One of the beacon areas of early successful reform was Telecom sector. It really able to link the entire India, but we failed to copy the same level of success in other areas. Now the 2G spectrum case results in the adjournment of Parliament, even though it is under consideration by two parliamentary committees - where the opposition too is a partner and court. Why the parties can't leave the rest of 2G scam proceedings to the court and concentrate on the real issues in Parliament? There are a lot of things to discuss - price rise, inflation, sector reforms in power, mining, retail, climate change issues etc. Losing the valuable time in the parliament will not help in the progress of the country.

If we are ready to accept the current course and live in the state of policy stagnation and structural paralysis it will not take much time for foreign investors - why only foreign investors, even the domestic ones will start looking for overseas grazing grounds. Simply because we have demographic advantage, growing middle class etc we can’t consider the growth as taken for granted. If we are so complacent in moving forward with reforms it will not take much time to return to low growth rates. Will it stop there? No over and above we will be considered as a bunch of people who are not ready to move ahead even in the favorable circumstances – in short the loss of faith in Indian markets.

Sajeev.

photo courtesy: wikipedia

Hum Sab Bharatiya hain...

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 06:07:17 PST

It’s almost nine years back; I saw these lines for the last time. The official song of NCC (National Cadet Corps) still sounds as fresh as I heared it for the first time around one decade back. Created through National Cadet Corps Act in 1948 (even though its origin can be traced back to 'University Corps’, created under Indian Defence Act 1917) by Indian Parliament. This tri-Services group considered as one of India's biggest organizations with strength of 1.3mn.

Written by Sudarshan Fakir these lines are still in the tongues of thousands of students across India.

Lyrics:

Hum Sab Bharatiya hain, Hum Sab Bharatiya hain.
Apni Manzil Ek Hai, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ek Hai, Ho, Ho, Ho, Ho, Ek Hai,
Hum Sab Bharatiya hain.
Kashmir Ki Dharti Rani Hai,
Sartaj Himalaya Hai.
Sadiyon Se Hamne Isko Apne Khoon Se Pala Hai
"Desh Ki Raksha Ki Khatir Hum Shamshir Utha Lenge.
Bikhre Bikhre Tarey Hain hum Lekin Jhilmil Ek Hai
Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ek Hai
Hum Sab Bharatiya hain
Mandir Gurudwara Bhi Hain Yahan
Aur Masjid Bhi Hai Yahan
Girija Ka Hai Ghadiyal Kahin
Mullah Ki Kahin Hai Ajaan
Ek Hi Apna Ram Hai, Ek Hi Allah Taala Hai,
Ek Hi Apna Ram Hai, Rang Birange Deepak Hain Hum,
Ek Jagmag Ek Hain Ha, Ha, Ek Hai, Ho, Ho, Ho, Ek Hai.
Hum Sab Bharatiya hain, Hum Sab Bharatiya hain.

Sajeev.

Lyrics Courtesy: NCC

New developments in South China Sea - Who will talk first?

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Sat, 26 Nov 2011 07:30:28 PST

Various Claims on South China Sea

Being in a status of big and powerful league of countries can be turn out a liability. Who understands this better than that of China? The growth started on 1970’s took her to rapid industrialization and economic progress; people suddenly started saying about the rise of China and her economic as well as military might. Books stores where filled with the analysis reports regarding to the events in China. Now-a-days people even started thinking about a bipolar world where one pole is fixed on Beijing. It is true that, today China has the potential to exert its influence not only on its immediate neighborhood, but also on South Asia, South East Asia, Africa and as far away as South America; but it will take some more decades to acquire an influence close to that of US. That too will happen if it’s able to solve the problems in her immediate neighborhood – South China Sea.

It’s quite natural that, a giant neighbour in the vicinity can make others uncomfortable. It will be sorer if the relation carries bitter memories from the past and the conflicts of present. In such a situation if someone is demanding something extraordinary then it will only make the problem worse. This is what happened when China added the entire South China Sea to its core interest list. Panic suddenly spread across the capitals of South Chinese littoral states. The problems – fishing boat incident - with Japan in Senkaku/Diaoyu and with Vietnam and the Philippines in Paracels and the Spratlys group only added fuels to it.

Now to resolve these issues, the interested parties have to sit around the table and talk. Here comes the problem, China may be ready to speak with the nations individually in which case it holds enormous bargaining power not only in size but also in economic and military might but the small nations will not be agreeable to this idea as they know their weakness. They may be more comfortable with to talk with China in a multilateral framework like ASEAN, when as a combined group they have considerable power. But China will not be comfortable with the idea, as it will reduce its bargaining power and there is a possibility to bring the US to the equations. So other than rhetoric and some meetings here and there any speedy resolution is not in the horizon.

Vietnamese hold a rare protest in Hanoi

But who will be the beneficiary in this situation? Certainly it will not be China. The open problem involving her in the neighborhood will restrict her freedom in playing a global role. Same thing will happen with India too. The ongoing problems with Pakistan will slowdown her rise to from South Asian framework to that of an Asian framework and them to a global framework. The beneficiary will be US, as it will get an opportunity to come back to South East Asia that too an invitation!!! Already US plans to create a base in Australia is in full swing. A place away from the range of Chinese anti-ship missiles as the existing bases like Guam is close to Chinese missile ranges.

Each aggressive move by China will be watched all over the world, these actions will not help her in creating a smooth international profile. So it will be better for China to sit with South East Asian nations and try to solve the problems peacefully under UN conventions on High Seas or according to any regional frameworks. They can also extract a guarantee from the littoral states for a safe passage of all supplies to China through Malacca Straits on all circumstances. Under any circumstances sea lanes should be open to international commercial navigation.

If China is able to work out the problems in South China Sea with littoral nations peacefully, it will not only assist in creating a peaceful SE Asia but will certainly raise China’s image. In that scenario more and more assignments will wait for her – Middle East crisis, African problems…

Sajeev.

Photo Courtesy: Voice of America

Splitting Uttar Pradesh - Moving back to pre-independence era of numerous states

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Sat, 26 Nov 2011 07:30:53 PST

Varanasi - On the banks of Ganga

The recent proposal by Mayavati, which was later accepted by Uttar Pradesh(UP) assembly by voice vote, to split the state in to four different parts - Poorvanchal (East UP), Paschim Pradesh (West UP), Bundelkhand and Awadh (central UP), is the latest demand for making the states shorter in the name of increasing administrative efficiency (or to increase the options available for politicians?).

But above the rhetoric, how good the demand is? With a population of 20 crores, UP is bigger than Brazil - which is the 5th largest country in the world by land area. Uttar Pradesh contributes more MPs (80, next is Maharashtra with a distant 48) to the parliament than any other state in India. The number is big enough that there is a saying 'UP will decide who will sit in New Delhi'. What more, 8 of India's 14 Prime Minister's were from UP.

Is population a reason?

Iconic TajMahal on the banks of Yamuna in Agra

Is being big, a reason to raise request for spliting the state? Lets consider the facts. Other than UP, 9 states of India have a population of 6 crores or more. Even though UP has close to twenty crore people I don’t think there will be much problem for a person in western border of UP to understand the language of the one from east. Even if there is a difference in dialect, it is not be as big as the one between Malayalam in Kerala and Kannada in the neighbouring Karnataka.

People of UP, are not in continuous strike for splitting as compared to Telengana or Gurkha areas of Paschim Banga. For the last 6 plus decades of independence, how it did they manage with this much population? In the first five decades it was even bigger, as Uttarkhand was also its part.

Is geography a reason?

If it is about geography, then four states in India are even bigger than UP. In fact being big is beneficial in many situation, for example some parts of the state may be blessed with natural resources or developed as part of British India while some other parts may not be. So if a state includes both the areas, through the effective distribution of wealth it is possible to make sure in bringing over all development. Isn’t it better for both Gangetic plane and Vindya Hill areas be together than as separate entities?

Ramabhar Stupa Kushinagar - Built over Buddha's ashes

Is there any formidable geographic barriers in between the states which restricts the smooth traffic of goods and services in UP, as in the case of Western Ghats in between Kerala and Karnataka or Thar desert in Rajasthan or the jungles of MP? In fact the splitting will only add much more baggages to the shoulders of small and medium scale industries in the form of extra taxes which they have to pay if their goods have to travel from say, NOIDA in western extent of UP to West Bengal, but the taxes are not limited to the entry tax.

Moreover in the days of mobiles and internet no one can blame that the communication is difficult between two ends of the state. If Chandragupta Maurya can rule Afghan from his capital in Pataliputra (currently in Bihar) in second century BC, what problem can happen in communication now-a-days?

Administrative reasons

If administration was the problem, then it is everywhere. In fact there are many areas in India - for example the Maoist corridor of central India - where the states machinery is not able to run its writs. With eight thousand plus kilometer of railway network, 31 national highways, expressways, National Waterways (600km of NW1 is in UP) UP can be governed much easily than many other states of India. If it is not working properly then it is the failure of State bureaucracy. Even if it becomes a new state the condition will remain the same.

Indicators

UP clocks lower ranks in many criterias. Taking a look at the Human Development Index - 32nd (followed by only 3 States - MP, Orissa and Bihar.), but the fertility rate is one of the highest in the country - 3.8 (only Bihar is above with 4.0), a skewed sex ratio but scored better than Punjab, Haryana, Delhi etc; Literacy rate is 69.7% - lower than the national average 74.04%, only 42.8% of houses have electricity (lower than national average of 67.9%), UP have a media exposure of just 76% for males and 52% for females (Kerala ranks first with 97% and 90% respectively).

Bhool Bhulaiya - Lucknow

All these are due to the size only? Awareness will do better in reducing the fertility rate than making the state smaller. Same reason goes with literacy also; to improve state requires a motivated government with a dedicated mission, not a small state which always requires grants from central government. At the same time UP has the largest transport network in India along with, sixth highest power generation capacity. Despite all these problems UP clocked impressive growth rates during the 11th plan period (2007-11), GSDP grew by 7.28% against the planned target of 6.10%.

What is the point of splitting the state to four regions, creating four big beaurocracies and four new governments? This will create a four brand new states, without much resources, it will requires more funds from central government to sustain themselves for some time. Will the added expenditure for the new bureaucracy and government justify the partition, which will otherwise go to the development? Surely it may be good for political parties, since in a big state only one party can came to power at a time, but if divided to four there is a chance that four different parties can came to power. So at any point of time they will be in power in any one of the four states.

Why this idea didn't come in 2007 when the current government came in to power? Why now? To make this an election issue? If that is the case then it’s not a good thing to do, election should be fought and won on real issues, not on building statues and park. People should think about the success and failure of current system viz. economic growth, corruption, law and order, educational system, industrial development etc to come to a conclusion on deciding their representative.

Buland Darvaza - Fatehpur Sikri - Agra India

These types of requests will only encourage more requests in the future, adding more oil to the fire. The development of the state can be done by concentrating on the problems not on rhetoric. Give more authority to the administrations working at the low level like Gram (Village) Panchayats, Municipal Corporations etc. Give them more resources and bring in effective performance appraisals and accountability to the system.

Sajeev.

PS: One of my friends - working in Bangalore for a reputed company- from UP was back in his state during a vacation - a town on the banks of Ganges. The story goes like this, One day he accidentally met one of his acquaintance - a local politician, he asked what are you doing in Bangalore. He told - I am working for a technology company. Then he asked about his salary? After hearing the number he started laughing. why don't you settle here and joining politics you can make much more than that?

Another incident goes like this. One guy went to polling station, but he was stopped in the door and people started questioning him. the reason - someone else already done that job for him!!! And he is not alone in suffering the fate!!!

Photo Courtesy: Wikipedia

Importance of having hard military assets in India

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Fri, 25 Nov 2011 11:56:43 PST

Brahmos Missile - successful product of a Joint Venture

Now-a-days global tenders for high ticket military purchases are not rare. We saw big deals like MMRCA, Scorpene, Gorshgov, C17, heavy lift aircraft's, long range helicopters etc. These off-the-shelf purchases and attached service contracts will effectively transfer a huge amount of money from Indian government accounts to that of foreign partners (offset clauses may allow some money to stay here). But how far these activities will take us in the realm of sophisticated defence technologies? Will it help the Indian companies to acquire the technologies overtime?

If you are thinking that, I am also advocating for 100% indigenous production, I beg to differ, I am not. I am not a fan of that. We may be able to produce a-z of defence equipment indigenously, but at the cost of quality and profitability. What we have to focus is on differentiating the sectors where we can compete and where we need help. Isn’t better to study Newton’s laws of motion in school text than reinventing it every time?

But the catch here is the word ‘Differentiation’. We have to find the sectors where requires many years to catch up with the current level of sophistication and to implement the schemes to fix the problems. If we are going for off the shelf purchases like the ones we are doing in the case of Gorshgov Carrier or C-17 Globemaster we are not going to reach anywhere other than just plugging the gaps. It is as simple as paying 6000Rs rent when your salary is only 10000Rs. The scenario may be better, if we are doing the manufacturing through HAL or any other government companies under licensed production but certainly not enough.

The name of the game is creating hard assets in the country, no matter whether it belongs to us or to foreign companies. Once you have hard assets (in the areas where we are struggling) in the form of manufacturing plants, assembling hubs by foreign companies then it will be matter of time for people to acquire experience and take the initiatives to replicate the success.

Considering the fact that India will remain one of the biggest buyers of defence equipment for atleast next two decades we have considerable bargaining power. After all a country which faces both asymmetric warfare on land and potential threats in sea will end up buying more - a potential opportunity for defence firms.

But the million dolor question is how to attract them to come here and setting up the factories? For this to happen we have to rewrite our procurement procedures. The current offset clauses may be a good start, but it’s not enough for the foreign companies to come here and invest. By forcing them to shed some of their return here, we may have something to start with. But it won’t be enough as nobody will like to distribute their priced technological sophistication to win some contracts, after all it's the secret of their survival. How can we create a win-win situation?

The best way is to offer good terms to the foreigners, allow them to build manufacturing plants here with majority ownership (say 75%). Offer good terms to both eastern - like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toshiba etc and western - BAE Systems, GE, Lockheed Martin, Boeing etc - to come and invest. Good offer doesn’t mean cheap land but strict patent protection laws, good operating environments, protection from nationalization, strict enforcement of contracts, quick dispensation of justice, excellent infrastructure, reliable supply chain etc.

At the same time we have to force them to build hard assets like main factories, assembly hubs, service centres etc in India. The last mentioned things are very important for us, we need them to build factories here - instead of mere marketing offices, we need the assembly lines - instead of technicians coming here on demand, we need service centres - instead of waiting indefinitely for spare parts.

For all this to happen we need to remove some of the red tapes. There is no point of limiting foreign partner’s ownership to 25%. Will you ever invest huge amounts to beautify your room, if you are only entitled to 25% of ownership? Won’t you think about accumulating that money for a new home in the future? If majority of technologies are coming from foreign partner, how we can restrict their ownership to 25%? What the logic of stopping a foreign company from acquiring majority ownership in their joint ventures with Indian companies in the name of making our defence industry indigenous, if we are buying hundreds of weapons, missiles, launchers, avionics etc from abroad that too off the shelf. Let them have joint ventures - with majority ownership - with native companies without any string attached.

One of the good case in point - even though the foreign investment is limited to statutory 25% - is the recent announcement of joint venture (JV) between 'Mahindra and Mahindra' and Telephonics Corporation. Telephonics Corporation is an experienced player in integrated, advanced sensor and communication systems technology sectors; serving aerospace, defence and commercial markets. They are very much active in the fields of - Surveillance, Radar, Identification Friend or Foe Surveillance Systems, Mixed Signal IC, Wireless Communication Products etc.

Telephonics - a wholly owned subsidiary of Griffon Corporation – also had a contract with Boeing to supply Multi-Mode Radar (MMR) for India’s P-8i aircraft. This also includes systems for (8) P-8i Aft Radar installations, integration and support services. They are also responsible for the installation of sophisticated intercommunication systems in C-17 Globemaster contracted for Indian Air Force.

Let’s come back to the joint venture, according to the reports,

"...JV to provide the Indian Ministry of Defense (MOD) and the Indian civil sector with radar and surveillance systems, Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) devices and communication systems. In addition, the JV intends to provide systems for Air Traffic Management services, Homeland Security and other emerging surveillance requirements..."

"...envisages establishing a plant in India which would manufacture and service airborne radar systems that are already being supplied to Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) and to support airborne maritime surveillance systems for the Indian Navy and Coast Guard. The JV will license technology from Telephonics for use on a wide range of products that have both defense and civil applications."

Just imagine the potential of having a factory or hard asset in land. It will certainly create a win-win situation for the nation as well as for the partners. Partnerships with foreign companies will certainly raise the standards, discipline, better financing, spread of technological know-how etc. We don’t have to go anywhere else to see the examples - just look at Indian IT service companies.

In this open world we should utilize the opportunities, especially in defence sector. It’s sweet hear about 100% indigenous production, manufacturing A-Z equipments etc. In practical, it’s not only difficult but also has the potential to become white elephant. If the companies like Mitsubishi etc are struggling to design a new generation aircraft on their own, even after having much technical know-how and experience, it will be much more difficult for us. Even if we made one, it won't guarantee the success of the project as it very much depend on the demand side too (otherwise it will end up as B2 bomber contracts).

Partnership with Sukhoi is one of the successful examples for joint production, but the point we missed in this case is bringing the Sukhoi (Physical assets) to India instead of contract manufacturing at HAL.

As I earlier said we need to differentiate where we are good and where we need assistance. We have to concentrate on our core areas and leave the rest to reliable foreign partnerships – as I mentioned earlier their physical assets should be on India. Consider the case of naval ship building; one of the areas where we are good, so concentrate in this area. Also consider the case of manufacturing engines for fighter planes; here we have to improve a lot. So instead of buying a GE engine outright, ask GE to build a plant (with ownership ratios of their choice) here for engines. If it’s not commercially profitable for them give incentives.

A joint venture with foreign companies will bring in expertise, discipline, new ideas etc. So for having better returns tomorrow we should concentrate on our strengths, rest can be outsourced – to the companies who have plants here. We have to make sure that we will not end up in buying the products off the shelf and then indefinitely wait for spare parts. Let them come to India and create factories here...

Sajeev.

Rising costs of shelter, cities are not for common man?

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 10:00:37 PST

Rising rent for rooms in Bangalore

I still remember that kid sitting on a small stone in front of a newly rising residential building. He was smiling after decorating his face with cement powder. After finishing with face he was searching for something to play. Unfortunately there was nothing other than stones, cement and iron rods. Slowly he raised his head and looked towards his father and mother; alas, what could they do? they were sweating under the November sun so that they could earn something towards the mounting living expenses. After looking towards them for some time he turned left and started looking towards the sunny sky. Suddenly the question came to my mind - "where does he stay?" It didn’t take much time to know where he stays - in a small temporary shed made of hollow bricks, which he possibly share with at least 7-8 other people.

As I was already late, I simply walked past him, but the scenario was very much alive in front of my eyes. Suddenly another question came to my mind, how long it will take for him to stay in the residential complex for which his father and mother works? I don’t know, I really don’t know. It's a hard truth in the suburban Bangalore - a place which was not even present in the city map some two decades ago. Now for the same place we have to pay close to 10000 INR for a two room, one hall one kitchen flat, that too excluding the current bill. The situation may not be different in other cities. If this is the case in a sub urban area where buildings are constructed like sticks in a match box then what will be the condition in the centre?

Every day I am seeing people who are always on the run. People from the nearby places coming with their families and working in the construction sites, often lives in a temporary one room shed. Life is too heavy for them, work will start early in the morning and sometimes extends to late night. Many are often working in the night shifts to get get some extra money.

How fast the old motto roti, kapada, makan (food, cloth, and shelter) become history!!! Now parties are not preparing their manifestos based on the living standards of the voters but based on the religion, caste they are in. Liberalization certainly helped many poor Indians to break the threshold line and entering to the booming array of middle class. Unfortunately it didn’t make us an industrialized country. Main Industries prospered here - not the one which makes engines for cars but the real estate, not the one which creates toys for export but the one which exploits the unprocessed iron ore from virgin forests.

The rise in the property value may be much higher than that of yellow metal. Rise of the cities also raised the income of common man but so (or more) as the cost. Indians may not paid this much amount of money simply to 'stay' at any point in History.

Still I shocked when I heared about a 54% increase in rent. It took some time for me to digest the facts - this increment is over and above the 10% we already suffered over the last two years. The case is not so different for many other people; slowly the cost of living is overrunning cost of other two basic requirements of life - cloth and food? This is not limited to renting a home, story is same if you are going for an outright purchase of a flat. People need to pay tens of lacks of rupees to small room apartments, which hardly provides any breathing space. The easy money available from the banks made the situation worse. Option of living in credit made it possible for people to buy real estate for bind blowing prices (and able them to spend the rest of their life by repaying the loans).

To where we are going? The days of affordable housing are already over? Are we paying too much for the rooms? I am not a person who supports government's micromanagement in every sector of human activity. Still I am forced to ask, will the administration come up with some upper limits? Such high rents are difficult for Small and Medium Enterprises too. But the difference is, they can relocate to other places, but for people it is not so easy!

Sajeev.

Exploring Bangalore - Through the arteries of the city

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 11:33:44 PST

Hosur Road Elevated Highway

"It’s Devali tomorrow, let’s see Bangalore", I told to Nixon - my roommate. After three years in Bangalore this question is supposed to be ridiculous, we are supposed to see each and every corner of the city by this time. Only yesterday I was remembered by a Karnataka Government official that 'by three years you should have learned Kannada' in not so friendly way. Well Nixon was ok with the idea. As one of our friends was enjoying his vacation, his bike was getting bored in the shed, why not give it some job? So we took it and checked the oil level - it’s just above the reserve, well we have to pour some more Petrol to its thirsty tanks.

Hosur main road - NH7 - is the longest national highway in India connecting Kanyakumari- the southern tip of mainland India, with the holy town Varanasi on the banks of Ganges. Elevated highway offers a bird's view of Electronic City and its neighbouring areas. We thought of visiting the Lalbagh first, but the criss-cross roads in the city - like a beautiful woman's hair - lead us to some other places. Finally we dropped LalBagh for the time being and thought of going to St. Patrick Church - one of the oldest Churches in Bangalore.

Mayo Hall, Bangalore

But it was Mayo Hall, on the side of MG Road, where we reached first. According to descriptions Mayo Hall is considered as one the finest pieces of British architecture in Bangalore. We stopped in front and I moved close to this white building to take a photo. After seeing my camera one person suddenly started walking towards me and made some gestures. Is it towards me? I turned back, no one was there; so I waited there for him to come. After coming close he started asking so many questions about why I am taking photo of the building etc. All are familiar questions; after hearing the same for so many times my answer it was very easy to answer. But I don’t understand what is the problem in taking photos of a road side monument using camera? If it’s using a mobile there is no such questions. In these days of Satellite photography, Google Earth etc nobody can stop anyone from seeing or taking the photos of a building. Still I appreciate their alertness.

Ulsoor Lake

Just like it is famous for gardens, Bangalore also has a good number of Lakes. Ulsoor lake is one of the important water bodies in the city, but be careful when you are here some sides of the Lake are defence areas. In short keep your camera inside whenever you are near to defence lands. Lake was calm and quiet, so as the people watching it. Some couples are sitting on the sides, families are waiting for their turn to get in to the peddle boats. I looked towards the calm waters and stand there for some time. Near to the lake there is Gurudwara too, an elevated white building in one side of the road. After giving two litres of oil to the thirsty engine we restarted our search for St. Patrick church.

We asked about St Patrick church to many people, as many people as many opinions. In the process we saw many churches in Bangalore and reached the Metro station too. After going through many roads, we reached St Patrick Church. Nixon went for mass and I slowly walked towards the front, renovation was going on. The old architecture of the outer walls many no longer visible.

St Patrick's church

Lalbagh was not very far from there, close to 4km. It was my second visit to Lalbagh, not many changes. After having some refreshment we walked across the park and reached the lake. It’s indeed a good place for the people to spend their evening with loved ones - no matter whether it is young, old or couples. Even in the middle of the crowds Lalbagh offers some moments of privacy.

After checking with some auto drivers about Tipu's Palace we were again on the roads, Nixon was complaining about the call of stomach but we didn’t have much time, so the call remained unanswered. Tipu's Palace is a two storey rest house built in Teak wood, decoration inside the rooms are faded overtime. Other than the building there is nothing much to see. Here you can see the model of one of the famous toys in Tipu's darbar - tiger attacking an English soldier and his cries (I think the original is in British museum).

Tipu Sulthan's Summer palace, Bangalore

According to our plan we should go to Tipu's armory and next to Bull's temple, both are close to Tipu's summer palace. Near to palace one person told us that Bangalore Palace will close by 5pm. There was not much time left so we hurried to towards Bangalore Palace. Close to Tipu's palace we saw the big (but about to fell down) fences of Bangalore fort Originally Built by Kempa Gowda - the founder of Bangalore - as a mud fort. Later it was converted to stone fort by Hyder Ali. Fort remained in the hands of Tipu Sultan till it was captured by English East India Company during the third Mysore war (1790-1792).

After having sugarcane juice we moved towards Bangalore palace. In fact the word 'towards' was not exactly correct, all we know was there is a Palace somewhere in Bangalore. As happened in the morning this time too we lost in the jungle of roads.

Bangalore Palace

Cubbon Park is a good place to spend morning and evenings, a spacious greenery to escape form the chaos of the city. Before becoming famous as India's Silicon Valley and IT capital, Bangalore was famously known as Pensioner’s paradise, Garden City etc. It is another matter that as the city is expanding fast to the adjoining areas it is more of concrete jungles than actual jungles!!!

We travelled further and on the left side the alphabets - Freedom Park - was written in big fonts. From here we travelled according to the traffic, and reached the gates of Karnataka Raj Bhavan next turn took us to Nehru Planetarium, which is close to Raj Bhavan.

If it was another time I will certainly go inside the planetarium, but this time we need to finish some more entries in our list. We went on and reached Sankey's road - a wide one with golf course on one side and famous hotels like Le Meridian and ITC Windsor on other side. From here we finally reached the palace road and then to Bangalore Palace.

Considered as a smaller replica of Windsor castle of England, Bangalore palace was not only good in its looks but in its charges also!!! I get down from from the bike some metres away from the building to take pictures of the palace from a distance, took some pictures and then slowly started walking towards the building. In the front yard an old lady was sitting in a slowly moving horse drawn cart, its look like a picture from the old English movies. I went ahead and tried to take a picture of the palace. Suddenly a whistle blow near to me and a security guard walked towards me. "Photography not allowed, you have to buy a camera pass from inside to take photos".

I went inside and asked about the camera charges. "600Rs for digital camera, 100Rs for Mobile camera, 175Rs/person" the lady sitting in front of a computer told me!!! I simply said "my friend is waiting outside, will call him and come" and then slowly started walking outside. "you will get an audio guide too!!!". I said "Thanks" and started walking outside.

Lalbagh lake

The charge of 600 Rs for camera is the highest I came across till now and this is the first place where I saw a separate charges for mobile cameras too. We went to the front yard of the place to get an over view of the entire structure. It's a beautiful building - just like a smaller version of palaces in "Arabian Nights". Beautiful colours, evening sky appearing in the background added some type of mysticism to the surroundings. I can hear the blow of whistles to stop others from taking the pictures. For my astonishment most of the people are not buying the tickets for camera and a good percentage of them are taking at least one photo before security guard stops them. After spending some more time there we decide to go back, slowly boarded our bike and started our return journey. Still the sounds of whistles were coming from the back.

Karnataka High Court

On the return journey we stopped in front of Vidhan Saudha and spend some time there by looking to these magnificent building. Opposite, decorated in red paint stands Karnataka High Court; other government buildings like Lokayukta office etc are also there.

As the sun is getting sleepy in the western mountains we called it as day

Sajeev.

For more photos please visit Flickr

India - Vietnam: Revival of old ties

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 11:19:04 PST

Halong Bay in Vietnam - UNESCO World Heritage Site

Recent agreements between India and Vietnam already generated much attention for all the wrong reasons. China feels threatened that India in collusion with Vietnam is working against their core interests. The relationship is getting evaluated in Indian media circles as a reply for Chinese support of Pakistan. But how far all these allegations and counter allegations are true? Lets look at the India - Vietnam relations in general and the new agreements in particular.

What can be the attractions of a relationship between a nation laying on the shores of South China Sea and another one laying on Indian ocean? Is it only because of a common big neighbour, with her rapidly expanding economic and defence power, includes the areas close to the borders of both nations in her core interest list? I beg to differ, I can't swallow the simplistic interpretation that mutual defence interests is the only relationship between India and Vietnam, security partnerships can be one of the objectives - an important one - but the relationship much more than that.

In these days of global village phenomenon, a country will lose more on declaring enmity or acting in that way with another one - which too is an active part of global economic village. If anybody believes that the relation between Vietnam and China are like the one between India and Pakistan they are viewing the relations through a narrow prism. The problems in South China Sea and the Islands in it may play a spoil sport but its not so bad.

In the same way, there is no reason for Chinese or Indian press to believe that each move by New Delhi in ASEAN is solely aimed against China. Yes, as a strategy every nation will play a balancing of power to feel more safer in the presence of a strong nation - even if it's a friendly one. So it's quite natural that South East Asian nations may like an active engagement with India just like the one with US, although in a lower level.

We are yet to touch the main question, defence pacts solely defines the relation? The answer is no, its is also economical. For example, economies needs new customers and new sources of revenue, just like cows needs fresh grazing grounds. To offset the losses in one market or to reduce the heavy dependency on one market, economies needs to expand to new regions. After all no one wants to put all their eggs in one basket.

Indian Premier Dr. Manmohan Singh

Let us come back to the question of India - Vietnam relations. These relations didn't sprang up suddenly, it evolved over a period of time. Historically Indic kingdom 'Cham Pa' had an impact on Vietnamese art and architecture, India was one of the countries strongly condemned US action during the Vietnam war. If we are considering the economic relations India granted the Most Favoured Nation status to Vietnam in 1975, signed bilateral trade agreement in 1978 etc. Both nations are part of Ganga-Mekong cooperation.

Indian Oil exploration activity in Vietnamese waters, which China objects, itself had an history of more than two decades. According to the press releases by ONGC Videsh the agreement signed by PetroVietnam and ONGC Videsh limited (OVL) is intended for

"...developing long term cooperation in oil and gas industry and shall be in force and effect for three years. Some of the key areas in which both the companies are desirous to cooperate are related to the exchange of information on the petroleum industry, exchange of working visits of authorities and specialists in various domains of the petroleum industry, new investments, expansion and operations of oil and gas exploration and production including refining, transportation and supply in Vietnam, India, and third countries according to the laws and regulations of their countries..."

The relationship itself dates back to 1980's when Hydro Carbon India limited (later renamed as ONGC Videsh Ltd) signed a Production Sharing Contract with PetroVietnam (PV) on 1988 for Block 06.1. Later, during the 2006 regular bidding process Block 127 and Block 128 in Phu Kanh basin were awarded to ONGC Videsh Ltd. In offshore Block 06.1 operated by British Petroleum, ONGC Videsh holds 45% share. Company decided to relinquish Block 127 -offshore deep water water block- to Petro Vietnam as it is unable to find any Hydrocarbon there and the drilling is differed to 2012 in Block 128. These data essentially indicates that the Indian exploration for Oil and Gas in Vietnamese waters have a long history. The new agreement talks about the expansion of that activities and more interactions in Petroleum sector, its not a declaration of an axis or nexus against any entity.

It is essential for India to increase the interactions with Vietnam as it will enable us to get a strong foothold in ASEAN. This should be followed by rapid expansion in trade (bilateral trade between the two nations is only $2.7bn) links with Vietnam in particular and ASEAN in general. Both India and Vietnam clocks impressive growth rates (Vietnam registers a growth rate of 6%+ from 1990-2005, eventhough it declined during the economic crisis (6.8% in 2010). To sustain these rates and bring more people out of poverty both nations need to expand bilateral and multilateral trade. Allowing more visas to Vietnamese to visits the Budhist sites in India, providing scholarships to students, joint Naval excercises and regular port vists are some of the ways to expand the ties.

This relation is about continuation of old political, cultural ties and expanding the baskets of cooperation to security, trade, development etc. Even though the situation in Indo-Sino border, South China Sea remains as a major irritant in the relations of India- China and Vietnam - China respectively, there is little possibility for the problems from getting out of control unless the strategists in China starts reading too much in between the lines and misunderstanding them.

Sajeev.

Photo Courtesy - Wikipedia

Libya's future - A litmus test for Arabian Spring

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 10:25:47 PDT

Finally the fighting came to an end or at least we can believe so. Col Muammar el-Qaddafi who ruled Libya for more than four decades died in his home town Sirte (1). Along with that, common enemy for Lybian transitional government also gone.

Now what is in store for Libya? Will it be able to go fast in the path of democracy by conducting elections and drafting constitution or will it run towards a never ending struggle like the one currently going on in Egypt? Egypt was different, there was a professional army to take over; It is altogether different matter that, this professional army is yet to conduct a new election. Still the situation in Egypt and the other neighbour Tunisia - where more than two decade old government fell in to Arabian spring - is far from normal.

In Libya there is no trace of old army - other than the divisions move away from Qaddafi in the earlier stage, all that existing in this sparsely populated country is a transitional government backed by NATO and Western countries. After a long and deadly fight with Quaddafi loyalists people's expectations about a new regime will be high. Will the Transitional government be able to bring the country back to normal or the internal revelries will play the spoil sport?

We can only wait and watch, but the NATO and western governments should apply pressure and fully utilize their leverage over the new Transitional government to draft a new constitution and conduct free elections.

One thing is certain, the immediate future of Libya will be a litmus test for Arabian Spring. If Lybia is not going to stabilize soon it will be a blow for the Arabian spring. The possibility of new Arab springs in other countries will decrease, people may prefer stability to the chaos of revolution. If Libyans are able to draft an inclusive constitution and conduct free elections, then it will give new hope for Northern Africa and middle East and of course more problems for Monarchies and Dictatorships.

Will the Arabian spring extend or winter will takeover?

Sajeev.

(1) http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/world/africa/libyan-fighters-say-qaddafi-stronghold-has-fallen.html?ref=world

Diluting the RTI Act will be counter productive

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Sun, 16 Oct 2011 12:24:47 PDT

If you are asking me what is the biggest achievement of Manmohan Singh government, I am sure the first one that will come to my mind will be Right To Information Act (RTI). Really a watershed moment in the political history of independent India. It enabled the people to know what is really happening inside the mammoth administrative apparatus.

Now-a-days, common man will not find it difficult to get the required information within a reasonable period of time through RTI, of course conditions apply!!! RTI act acted as a powerful weapon against corruption, revealing information related to many shady deals and other things. In many cases, activists started asking the right questions and got the right answers, problem started when these answers created a constant headache for the administration, especially in the case of various file notings related to infamous 2G spectrum deal.
It didn't take much time for Congress spokesperson Manish Tiwari to assert that ,

"...but people are also beginning to ask whether its efficacy is being blunted by the way it has begun to impinge on governance..."(1).

Unfortunately he failed to identify the people questioning about the efficacy of the Act to public.

According to Indian Express report, Union Law minister Salman Khurshid said

"...its misuse was affecting “institutional efficacy and efficiency”, with even the bureaucracy becoming reluctant to record its opinion...".

I will not wonder if somebody ask him, how anyone can blame RTI act for the reduction in the efficiency of administrative decision making (and execution) process? Was the administrative efficiency so high before the act became law? What is the percentage of reduction in administrative efficiency that can directly attributed to RTI? Last but not the least, Will Salman Khurshid say the same thing if he is in opposition?

However I am partially agreeing with the second part of his statement,

"If everything that I as a minister write to the Prime Minister comes out, then what is the point of writing to the PM confidentially?(2)

and Manmohan Singh's argument

"..to ensure that it doesn't adversely affect the deliberative process of the government and discourage honest officials from articulating their views".(3)

It may be a problem for the minister, just imagine what will happen to him if his arguments against reservation policies in a file noting came to public domain? In these days of hyperactive media he will not be able to last long in the cabinet. At the same time it may be his opinion that will enable the administration to come up with a balanced approach. This is also true for the critical decisions related to national security (internal and external), matters related to external affairs or even in the case of taking important decisions related to general policy.

But the options to protect such data are already incorporated to RTI act. Government may like to protect some more sections like file notings etc. Does the arguments provide reason for diluting the RTI act? I have to say 'No' here. Government can protect the same by using the already existing mechanisms. Just like many other countries do, we too can open even secret (but not critical) archives to the general public after 30 years.

As of now various arguments floating around are not enough to create a mammoth bank of secret documents to be hidden from public view. All the files are not critical, if we are analysing the recent experiences as the base, these files are bringing more and more dirt from governments drainage channel than reducing the efficiency.

However as the criticism reached new ebbs Union Law minister clarified that there is no proposal for relook.

"...We are proud of RTI. We are pleased that we gave RTI to this country. Even if it causes inconvenience to this country to an extent, we will bear that inconvenience...But we must ensure that in totality, the efficiency and functioning of government is strengthened" On whether the RTI would be revisited, Khurshid said, "there is no proposal to relook at the Act".(4)

Indeed RTI act is one of the very few weapons in the hand of general public to know what government is actually doing. It is one of the biggest achievements of Manmohan Singh government. Inclination to move more and more things to exemption clauses in the Act will leave the act as a paper tiger. This is not what a government believes in transparency and accountability should do. Moreover, diluting the act at this point of time - when the corruption cases already polluted the air - will be counterproductive and affect the image of the administration too.

Sajeev.

(1) The Hindu - Oct 08, Sunday, 2011
(2) Indian Express - http://www.indianexpress.com/news/after-moily-khurshid-complains-rti-misuse-hitting-efficacy-efficiency/856317/
(3) The Hindu - Oct 15,saturday, 2011
(4) Times of India - http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/No-relook-at-RTI-Salman-Khurshid/articleshow/10374941.cms

Puducherry Memories

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Sun, 16 Oct 2011 07:29:20 PDT

Woke up late in the morning and checked the calender, thought that it was Sunday. No, it was Friday only. But the thought of Sunday brought back old memories. In school days, Sundays invoked mixed responses. The bad part part was, Sunday mornings were an early sign for the end of a weekend. The good part was the entertainment, in those days television was a new item to many parts of India and very less number of households had television.

In those Sunday mornings everyone were glued to television to see the legendary serial SriKrishna (9 am) in DD1. If I correctly remember 'Chandrakanta' was also telecasted on Sunday morning. In the evening - at 4 'o' clock there was a regional movie in DD 1. People used to stop all other activities and present themselves in front of tv from 4 to 6.30 in the evening. Then come Kippling's legendry 'Jungle jungle jungle book....'

Around 9 'o' clock we (Me and Binesh) left the room and joined the crowd. After completing the breakfast we started walking through the clean and straight roads of Puducherry. On the way, he explained me many interesting things about Puducherry, about her underground drainage system, streets named in French etc. Slowly we reached the ICICI's Pondicherry branch. He went to the bank and I went back to the street after promising to meet him at lunch.

I walked towards Varadaraja Perumal temple, after removing the shoes went inside. This complex had a number of temples and a pond inside it. A marriaage was going on the left side of the temple and another one on the right side. Kamakshi Amman temple was the next destination, located on the roadside two or three blocks away from the Varadaraja Perumal temple. After having Prasasdam from there I walked straight towards the beach.

There was a road parallel to the beach, elegant and powerful buildings of Pudicherry are standing on the other side of the road. First monument I saw was Indian war memorial on the left - a simple building with an inverted rifle fixed on an elevated platform with a concrete covering. When I reached there, an old lady was scolding a group of three people for taking photos. All because of a simple misunderstanding, this group was taking photos of the the memorial in front of which she was having her breakfast. She thought that they were taking the photos of her state of poverty.

I continued through the road, next came Chief Secretariat - four floored white building with an Indian flag on the top, next was an impressive Mahatma Gandhi statue on the left. Full statue of Gandhi with his walking stick in a mandir like structure surrounded by four pillars standing on semi-circular shape. Opposite to Gandhi's statue was Nehru's. Then came Customs house, which had an impressive French name - Douane Customs.

Next on the right was French war memorial - AVX COMBATTANTS DES INDES FRANCAISES MORTS POVR LA PATRIE - for the soldiers died on first World War. A full size statue of a soldier looking down, his hands were covering the barrel of a rifle other side of the rifle touches the ground in between his legs. Entrance gate was closed, so I had to stand outside. I looked towards the statue and imagined about the situation at the theaters of World War I.

Next came office of senior superintent of Police (SP), office of Inspector General (IG) and Puducherry Police Head Quarters. I continued through the road, White Town as well as many other areas of Puducherry still had a small white population. On the other side of the road a lot of people were passing their time on the beach. Some of them simply looking tot he beach others are walking here and there along the road.

Ambedkar manimandiram cam next - a concrete structure with a full statue of Ambedkar in middle. Former French Governor general Duplex's statue was standing at one end of the road with a sea bridge in the background. I took the Romian Roland Road - third road parallel to beach road - and soon reached Bharati Park, this is a crowded place. Many people are standing here and there, some are drinking cane and other juices out side the park gate and some others are posing themselves in front of Ayi mandapam. After taking some photos of Ayi Mandapam I slowly walked outside and reached Romian Rolland library.

Behind the library stood the Pondicherry State Museum and opposite to museum stood the magnificent Rajnivas (Palais du Gouvernement) - or the Governor's House. Two old cannons were fixed in front of the gate and not so tight security. After viewing the Governor's house I went to state museum. The building we were seeing as museum now once belonged to a French Trader. I liked the house in one shot with her wide windows and doors along with big rooms it gave a different expression for the idea of home. As some works were going on I was not able to go to the first floor.

Arikkamedu was on my list, but I had to drop it due to time constraints. Puducherry state museum offered an excellent exposure of Arikkamedu's history. According to the curator, whatever they got from the excavation grounds of Arikkamedu were transferred to the museum. I moved slowly through the museum, it revealed the magnificent history of Arikkamedu.

Sri Manakula Vinayaga Temple was one of the famous temples in Puducherry after praying there for some time I went straight to Aurobindo Ashram. As the ashram was closed for lunch, I called Binesh and he came with a bike. After having lunch and visiting some more places including 'Eglise de Notre Dame de la Conception Immaculee Church' he dropped me in the Puducherry bus stand.

I took one local bus to Auroville and get down at Auroville busstop on ECR; beach was on the right side of the road and Ashram on the left. After spending some time on the beach I went to Ashram - around 10 km from the road - in auto. The main attraction of Auroville is 'Matri Mandir' - a big globe in golden colour. Unfortunately visitors can't go very near to Matri Mandir on all days. Near to the It looks like only some days are open for that purpose. 5 'o' clock was already over, and Auroville was about to close. I took another auto to reach the main road and from there a very crowded bus to reach Pondicherry bus stand.

After that - back to Bangalore. If the breakdown of SETC bus on the way to Krishnagiri didn't happen return journey was ok.

Sajeev.

Pondicherry Gallery

Exploring Odisha - Day five: Dhabaleshwar, Saptasajya, Mahimagadi and Kapilash

noreply@blogger.com (Sajeev k) — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 14:17:55 PDT

Scott Cameron once said "Travel makes one modest. You see what a tiny place you occupy in the world".

Day five was the last leg in my Odisha trip, thus one of the interesting journeys came to an end. Travelling is always interesting; we will come to know more about people and their culture. Saint Augustine rightly said "The world is a book; those who do not travel read only one page". The problem is, the book is very big and each page is so lengthy that we have to struggle very much to reach the next page.

For the last four days I was living as an Oriyan, of course with little knowledge about the language. Language is indeed a barrier; it will reduce our capacity for communication with the people who don’t understand our language or whose language we don’t understand. When you are in some place and want to talk to a commoner, to ask some thing, or to know about his opinion or experience about something it is often difficult to find a mutually understandable language.

But there is an opposite side too - there is always a common universal language for expressions, emotions and feelings. These entities have same pronunciation in every language.

Located on an island in mighty Mahanadi, Dhabaleshwar Shiva temple can be accessed through boat or suspension bridge. We reached the place on a late friday morning and crossed the bridge on foot. Here we can go inside the sanctum sanctorum itself; after removing the shoes we went inside and after a flight of steps reached the idol. As one priest was doing some pooja for another devotee; we took a round around the idol, prayed for some time then came out. The walls of this temple were plain but the structure was similar to other Odisha temples. One the way beck, I looked towards the far end of Mahanadi – She too is a traveller, isn’t it? After saying good bye to Mahanadi we moved towards our next destination - Saptasajya.

Saptasajya – mythologically linked to Pandavas of Mahabharata - is located close to Dhenkanal district of Odisha. We had to travel through a not so dense forest to reach there. Vehicle took us close to the temple, and then on foot we reached the temple. Steps leading to the temple were not so high, in between considerable flat spaces were also there. A small stream was flowing on one side of the steps close to them. After spending some time in this atmosphere we again hit the roads.

Hinduism is one of the religions where it is difficult to find out how many branches it has. Before reaching Mahimagadi I never heared about this branch of the religion. What make Mahima sect different from other sects is its strict adherence to monotheism and opposition to idol worship. Unfortunately by the time we reached there, both ‘Shunya’ and ‘Fire’ temple were closed, only Gadi temple was open. After spending some time in the temple complex and visitng the mammoth bell in front of the Fire Temple, we moved to the nearby hotel for lunch. From Mahimagadi stright to Kapilash.

From a distance Kapilash group of mountains were visible, covered by white clouds even in the afternoon it looked like another world. We reached the foot of the hills by three 'o' clock. From here the road to Kapilash Shiva temple starts; with a good number of hairpins and picturesque scenes outside it was an interesting journey. One by one we covered all the hairpins - and reached the temple.

Slowly we entered the Shiva temple painted in White. After praying there for some time we went to the other side of the temple. A good number of steps in front of the temple led us to another temple on the top. Steps are always tempting; if there was a way, then there is no reason to leave it. And we started climbing it and reached another temple. Steps are not ending, from here another group of steps were stretched towards the forest. Unfortunately it was raining again.

We went further, cemented steps gave their way to the muddy forest paths. We traversed the path in the heavy rain, fully drenched in water we finally reached Sita's cave(Sita entudisala) - according to mythology this is the place where Sita Devi gave birth to Lava and Kusha. We spent some time here imagining about the last part of epic Ramayana. Rain was not in mood to slow down, in fact it was gaining more momentum, which left us in a confused state - to go to Valmiki caves or back. Finally we decided on the forward option and within some minutes reached Valmiki caves - It is believed that Valmiki's ashram was located in this area.

Now we were in a more confused state, whether to go forward to Devsabha in these heavy rains or to go back. Finally we decided to move on, after that there was no confusion in my mind. We should not miss Devsabha after coming so close to it, who knows when I can come back to Orissa again? Till Valmiki caves arrowmarks were there to guide the visitors from the caves we had to follow the forest path. Finally we reached on the top of the hill and after a turn saw Devsabha.

At this height atmosphere was pure, surrounding hills looked like small kids. Withstanding the heavy rain we finally reached Devsabha - according to the belief Devasabha is conducted here every night. It’s a flat surface, with a Krishna idol on one side and other idols arranged in an open areas as if all the idols are participating in a meeting. By this time rain was almost over. If it was not close to twilight we might have spent some more time there - Top of Kapilash, fully drenched in rainwater, leaves of the trees gleefully reflecting the rays of a departing sun, winds were moving around the top branches of tress and a small cloud was on the other end!!! Sound of the water droplets hitting the ground added another tone to nature’s music.

Finally something about the state. Odisha is indeed blessed both by nature and by time. Rich in Minerals, vast areas of unpopulated and fertile land, close to South East Asian countries, a possible sea outlet for land locked northern neighbour, Orissa has all the options in hand. It has the potential to become the Australia of India if the state uses its natural resources properly along with developing human capital.

I am really thankful to Milon and his family for the love and attention they gave to me; otherwise it would not have been possible for me to cover these much areas of eastern Odisha in such a short span of time. For me it was like a home away from home.

Mark Proust once said "The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeing new landscapes, but in having new eyes." The question is whether we are able to get it or not.

Shubha Vidaya Odisha

Sajeev