Effect Measure

That Superbowl ad (not the anti-abortion one; the other one)

Tue, 09 Feb 2010 06:27:24 -0500

Like tens of millions (probably hundreds of millions globally) I watched the Superbowl on Sunday. With such an audience, ad time is notoriously and extravagantly expensive and some ads are only run once, at that venue (e.g., the famous Apple "1984" ad). For some people the ads are as much an attraction as the game, so it is sad to report that this year they were relatively unfunny and, as one blogger noted, unusually ugly and misogynist in flavor. But the ad that has drawn the attention of those interested in a cleaner and greener world was from automaker Audi and it has drawn two very different reactions.

In case you didn't see it, here it is:

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Your home is your (dangerous) castle

Mon, 08 Feb 2010 06:02:00 -0500

Most people feel safe at home, but statistically it's not the safest place to be, at least in terms of being injured (here injury includes not only trauma but poisoning, but if we restrict it to trauma probably little is changed). Here's one of CDC's "Quickstat" looks at the percentage distribution of injuries by place of occurrence, as reported in a cluster sample of the US population (the National Health Interview Survey). The years covered are 2004 to 2007:

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The dangers of weed

Sun, 07 Feb 2010 16:40:47 -0500

I know families that if you visited them and found them laughing, confused, dizzy, thirsty and vomiting and apparently hallucinating you would think, "everything's normal." On a July night in suburban Maryland, however, an after dinner social call by a relative didn't think it was normal at all and EMTs were called and six adults were headed for the hospital, five to the intensive care unit. Attention immediately focused on what they all had in common, a meal of stew and bread an hour earlier:

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Freethinker Sunday Sermonette: the miracle in the melon

Sun, 07 Feb 2010 06:28:11 -0500

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All the science news that's not fit for print

Sat, 06 Feb 2010 06:13:11 -0500

Everyone knows, because the the Main Stream Media tells us, that bloggers aren't journalists. I freely admit I am not a journalist, not even a science journalist. Of course I do report a lot of science here and I know I do it better and more accurately than many a science reporter, but there are science journalists like Helen Branswell, who is not a scientist, and can run circles around amateurs like me. Unfortunately there aren't many of Branswells in the MSM these days, so when we report what's in a breaking science paper I think we do it as well or better than most non scientist journalists. I don't have to call the authors to find out what the paper is about. I can read it for myself.

But when it comes to TV news, and not print, I still have everything to learn. So I was glad to find this primer and am glad to share it with the rest of you who are as clueless about how to do TV news as I am:

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Random thoughts on CDC's swine flu effort: epidemiology and surveillance

Fri, 05 Feb 2010 06:06:16 -0500

We still don't know if we are experiencing a lull in flu or the virus has burned itself out for the season, but it's as good a time as any to reflect a bit on where we've been and where we still need to go. Being otherwise occupied (I'm sure you are sick of hearing about my grant writing obsession but not half as sick as I am about having it!), I'll start with something relatively straightforward: how CDC did on the epidemiology and surveillance front. Historically this is the agency's strong suit and so it is expected they would have acquitted themselves well. And pretty much, they did. A lot of good epidemiology got done and the surveillance system more or less worked to provide important information. But this doesn't mean there isn't room for improvement.

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Grant writing

Thu, 04 Feb 2010 06:21:48 -0500

Writing a big grant proposal can be an all consuming affair. At least it's consuming all of me. And it's not because it's my first time. I wish. In fact it's the fourth time I'm doing this particular competitive renewal for a mega research program I've managed to keep continuously funded for 16 years. But each 5 year cycle it gets tougher, not easier and I wind up thinking about it all the time. The whole experience is reminiscent of the story of the World War I doctor given the task of selecting one of three volunteers for a dangerous and urgent mission. There was only time to ask each candidate a single question. The doctor had a bent toward psychology and decided to wave a white handkerchief in front of the soldier's face, asking for his first thought. Soldier number one said: "It reminds me of my dear mother waving good-bye at the train station." Maybe not the perfect candidate, thought the doctor, so he went on to soldier number 2: "That's the white flag of surrender," he said. Definitely not the right one. He waved the handkerchief in front of the third soldier, who broke out into a broad grin. "That makes me think of screwing," he said brightly. The doctor was taken aback. "Screwing? Why does waving a white handkerchief in front of your face make you think of screwing?" The soldier answered: "I always think of screwing!"

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Peer review problems: just in the Nature of things

Wed, 03 Feb 2010 06:04:43 -0500

The Nature blog, The Great Beyond, has an interesting although not surprising report of accusations on BBC that a cabal of researchers has been impeding publication of important stem cell research to help themselves or help their friends:

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Oral conception

Tue, 02 Feb 2010 06:33:35 -0500

Grant writing makes you crazy and also forces bloggers to stoop to ever lower levels. Hence this from the Discover Magazine blog via Boingboing.

While trawling for gold in the medical case literature they struck it rich with the story of the 15 year old girl with no vagina who got pregnant by giving her boyfriend a blow job (British Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology: 1988 Sep;95(9):933-4). Not possible? You be the judge:

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Health insurance company whacked

Mon, 01 Feb 2010 06:46:39 -0500

If you want to know why I despise every Republican Senator and Democratic Senators Ben Nelson, Evan Bayh, Blanche Lincoln, Max Baucus, "Independent (of morals)" Joe Lieberman and probably a bunch more whose names I am repressing, it's because they enable and support and help entrench as the bedrock of our health care system, insurance companies. Here's what these companies are like:

A Boulder County jury has ruled that a health insurance company must pay $37 million to a Lafayette woman whose health insurance policy was canceled after she was seriously injured in a car accident.
The insurance company had said she failed to disclose previous medical treatments, namely an emergency room visit for shortness of breath and treatment for uterine prolapse. The company refused to cover roughly $185,000 in medical bills from the accident and canceled the woman's policy.

[snip]

Latham, now 39, suffered multiple compound fractures and a brain injury when a suspect fleeing police rammed into her car in October 2005 near the intersection of 23rd Avenue and Collyer Street in Longmont.

Latham spent a month at Longmont United Hospital and another month at the Mapleton Center for Rehabilitation, Levy said.

Five months before, she bought an individual health insurance policy from Time Insurance Co. for herself and her two younger children. Her older children were covered under her ex-husband's insurance through work.

Soon after she was released from the hospital, she received a letter from Time Insurance informing her the company had rescinded her policy and would not pay her expenses from the accident. The decision to cancel her policy also made it nearly impossible for her to get insurance from other companies, Levy said. She now receives Medicare benefits. (Erica Meltzer, Daily Camera [Boulder, CO], hat tip reader Gaythia)

Assurant/Time Insurance aren't the only insurance company to do things like this. WellPoint Inc., UnitedHealth Group and other big health insurers have canceled coverage of more than 20,000 people, avoiding $300 million in a 5 year period. As Mrs. R. is fond of saying, "How do these people sleep at night?"

The CEO of Assurant may not be sleeping so well in the future. Ms. Latham sued his company and her lawyer asked the jury to consider how they think an insurance company should act and to award her $7 million. The jury didn't agree with her lawyer.

They awarded her $37 million.

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Jaws meets the grant writer

Sun, 31 Jan 2010 18:41:04 -0500

I'm coming up for air during my grant writing (so far this weekend I've spent in excess of ten hours yesterday and today just writing; all the rest of the time I spent obsessing about what I wrote and what I still needed to write), but you know I'm desperate when I start posting stuff like this:

UF [University of Florida] researchers reviewed 96 cases that had complete medical records from more than 4,000 entries in the International Shark Attack File, a record maintained by UF's Florida Museum of Natural History. Assigning scores to clinical findings such as blood pressure, location and depth of injury, damage to organs and death, the team created a scoring system called the Shark-Induced Trauma Scale, or SIT Scale.
[snip]

"If it's just an extremity and it's an abrasion, it's just a level I injury," [lead researcher and surgeon Dr. Ashley] Lentz said. "If a shark comes up and takes a big bite out of a thigh and takes out the femoral artery, then that's a life-ending bite -- pretty quickly -- and you are talking about a level V injury," Lentz said.

[snip]

Findings showed that 41.7 percent of attacks were level I; 16.7 percent were level II; 18.8 percent were level III; 14.6 percent were level IV; and 8.3 percent were level V.(Florida Today)

Apparently most shark bites are just nibbles. 90% of the Florida encounters resulted in minor lacerations. Since there are about 60 some shark attacks a year, worldwide, the other 10% is still a half dozen people, and each year there are 3 or 4 fatal outcomes.

My attention was drawn to the shark attack story just after reading the most recent draft of my proposal while asking myself, how would a reviewer look at this?

Coincidence? I don't think so.

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Freethinker Sunday Sermonette: Pat Robertson apologizes

Sun, 31 Jan 2010 06:49:13 -0500

Pat Robertson said something impolitic about Haiti (like the earthquake was because they made a pact with the devil) and as result he gets a lot of hate mail. I wouldn't ordinarily reprint any of it, but it seems like the devil (aka Satan) was pretty pissed and sent him a letter (hat tip readers J and K C). So we decided to give the Devil his Due:

Dear Pat Robertson,
I know that you know that all press is good press, so I appreciate the shout-out. And you make God look like a big mean bully who kicks people when they are down, so I'm all over that action. But when you say that Haiti has made a pact with me, it is totally humiliating. I may be evil incarnate, but I'm no welcher. The way you put it, making a deal with me leaves folks desperate and impoverished. Sure, in the afterlife, but when I strike bargains with people, they first get something here on earth -- glamour, beauty, talent, wealth, fame, glory, a golden fiddle. Those Haitians have nothing, and I mean nothing. And that was before the earthquake. Haven't you seen "Crossroads"? Or "Damn Yankees"? If I had a thing going with Haiti, there'd be lots of banks, skyscrapers, SUVs, exclusive night clubs, Botox -- that kind of thing. An 80 percent poverty rate is so not my style. Nothing against it -- I'm just saying: Not how I roll. You're doing great work, Pat, and I don't want to clip your wings -- just, come on, you're making me look bad. And not the good kind of bad. Keep blaming God. That's working. But leave me out of it, please. Or we may need to renegotiate your own contract.

Best,

Satan (via Star Tribune)

Or maybe the Haitians would even have their own TV show bringing in scads of filthy lucre. Anyway, apparently Satan's missive had the desired effect, because the real Pat apologized. You know he means it because he used his real name, Paco (he's Cuban):

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Advice from Howard Zinn

Sat, 30 Jan 2010 06:01:51 -0500

Howard Zinn is gone, now, but he left us plenty. Here is a short piece he wrote a little over ten years ago in Z Magazine (hat tip, SR). It's typical of his style: inspiring, humble, practical, especially in these times:

On Getting Along

Howard Zinn, March, 07 1999

You ask how I manage to stay involved and remain seemingly happy and adjusted to this awful world where the efforts of caring people pale in comparison to those who have power?
It's easy. First, don't let "those who have power" intimidate you. No matter how much power they have they cannot prevent you from living your life, speaking your mind, thinking independently, having relationships with people as you like. (Read Emma Goldman's autobiography LIVING MY LIFE. Harassed, even imprisoned by authority, she insisted on living her life, speaking out, however she felt like.

Second, find people to be with who have your values, your commitments, but who also have a sense of humor. That combination is a necessity!

Third (notice how precise is my advice that I can confidently number it, the way scientists number things), understand that the major media will not tell you of all the acts of resistance taking place every day in the society, the strikes, the protests, the individual acts of courage in the face of authority. Look around (and you will certainly find it) for the evidence of these unreported acts. And for the little you find, extrapolate from that and assume there must be a thousand times as much as what you've found.

Fourth. Note that throughout history people have felt powerless before authority, but that at certain times these powerless people, by organizing, acting, risking, persisting, have created enough power to change the world around them, even if a little. That is the history of the labor movement, of the women's movement, of the anti-Vietnam war movement, the disabled persons movement, the gay and lesbian movement, the movement of black people in the South.

Fifth: Remember, that those who have power, and who seem invulnerable are in fact quite vulnerable, that their power depends on the obedience of others, and when those others begin withholding that obedience, begin defying authority, that power at the top turns out to be very fragile. Generals become powerless when their soldiers refuse to fight, industriaists become powerless when their workers leave the jobs or occupy the factories.

Sixth: When we forget the fragility of that power in top we become astounded when it crumbles in the face of rebellion. We have had many such surprises in our time, both in the United States and in other countries.

Seventh: Don't look for a moment of total triumph. See it as an ongoing struggle, with victories and defeats, but in the long run the consciousness of people growing. So you need patience, persistence, and need to understand that even when you don't "win," there is fun and fulfillment in the fact that you have been involved, with other good people, in something worthwhile.

Okay, seven pieces of profound advice should be enough.

I think about this a lot, these days. It's a long struggle. It started before we were born and it will go on after we are dead. Howard Zinn is gone now. But the struggle goes on, with other good people, in something worthwhile.

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Howard Zinn, 1922 -2010

Fri, 29 Jan 2010 06:52:27 -0500

Howard Zinn died on Wednesday. He was a colleague and more than an acquaintance but a friend, although not a close friend. I knew him for 40 years, although hadn't seen him recently, the last time was a few years ago when we shared a platform together. The auditorium was packed, not to see me but to see him and he was his usual feisty self. But it was a feistiness that was full of kindness and compassion. Just to be in his presence conveyed a strange kind of empowerment. He made you believe you could make a difference, even when it was crystal clear the one who was really making a difference was Howard Zinn. Howard's colleague at Boston University, the writer Caryl Rivers, said it best: "He was such a righteous man."

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Fire in the hole: Wolfgang Wodarg and WHO

Thu, 28 Jan 2010 06:26:49 -0500

The Reveres have written many posts about the World Health Organization in five years. Some just reported on their activities, others, as seemed appropriate, were critical or praised them. WHO operates in a difficult landscape under rules of engagement not well suited to fighting an enemy that recognizes neither national borders nor national sovereignties and one might question this intergovernmental agency's relevance given those constraints. But we have always bridled at accusations WHO acted unethically or incompetently, neither of which is true. WHO does a difficult job with just a fraction of the budget of many national agencies and mostly ithem well. Nasty and mean spirited accusations now being hurled by ignorant and self-aggrandizing members like the head of health of the Council of Europe, Wolfgang Wodarg, who charges WHO with pimping for the drug cartel, are so stupid one wonders why anyone would take him seriously. But apparently some wearers of tin foil hats take him seriously enough that WHO felt it necessary to issue a statement defending its honor:

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