However imprecise Reagan’s macroeconomic definitions may have been, he’d made his point. Semantics don’t mean much to Americans who have lost or are about to lose their jobs, their savings and their homes. But for those charged with charting the fastest course to an economic recovery, knowing the exact severity of the situation is critical. So what does constitute a recession, or a depression? Answering that question is harder—and takes longer—than you might expect.

Some economists define a recession as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, or a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP). By that measure, the U.S. wasn’t off to a bad start this year. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real U.S. GDP rose 0.9 percent in the first quarter of 2008 and 2.8 percent in the second quarter. The problem with such a simple definition, according to James Poterba, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of when recessions begin and end, is that it “omits the possibility that you see two very tiny declines in two quarters, and [it also] doesn’t look at other information for the rest of the economy, which may suggest that what is happening is not a broad decline.”

 According to NBER’s definition, a recession occurs when a “significant decline in economic activity is spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.” The beginning of a recession is commonly referred to as a business-cycle “peak,” and the end of it is called a business-cycle “trough.”

Robert Gordon, a member of the NBER committee responsible for determining the beginning and end dates of recessions, says making a determination is often complicated by the fact that figures like GDP can be revised substantially even years later. Roy Smith, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business, adds, “It’s very frustrating for commentators and other folks who feel like they know in their gut that we are in a recession, but that is not a very scientific [approach,] so people can get it wrong. The choice is that someone calls it based on their gut, or we wait for the data.”

Waiting for the data tends to take some time. As a result, most recessions have not been declared by NBER until at least five months after they’ve ended. The one marker that seems to be a constant in most recessions is unemployment. “There has never, in the postwar U.S., been a 1 percentage point increase in unemployment without a recession having been declared, and much of that increase in unemployment occurs after the recession started,” says Gordon. “Right now, we’ve had a 1.7 percent increase in unemployment. On historical precedence, absolutely this is a recession. All we have to do is figure out when it began.”

Still, to NBER, the means by which to measure a recession make as much sense today as they did 50 years ago. Harvey Pitt, former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission and CEO of the global consulting firm Kalorama Partners, says there is another reason why the process by which a recession is defined will likely go unchanged. “It’s fairly elastic, because it has enormous economic as well as political consequences,” he says. “Whoever is running the government at any particular time wants to avoid people drawing the conclusion that economic stagnation is a recession.”

When it comes to depressions, Pitt believes the term is fairly well understood, even if there is no official definition. A common unofficial definition for a depression refers to a deeper and prolonged recession during which the GDP declines by more than 10 percentage points. That was certainly the case in the 1930s, when the GDP dropped by more than 30 percent from 1929-33, with unemployment rates peaking at 25 percent in 1933. “These numbers were monstrously larger than anything we’d experienced otherwise,” says Smith. “We have no other modern experience of it and will likely not have any, because we’ve installed safeguards that didn’t exist then to prevent such a catastrophe.”

Smith doubts there’s a need for an official definition, because he believes it is unlikely that the country will find itself in such a drastic situation again. The NBER’s Gordon says that coming up with one would likely be difficult, because “really, all we agree on is that a depression is much more severe than a recession, and everyone agrees we haven’t had one since the 1930s.”

When it comes to searching for definitive explanations, Reagan may have gotten it right back in 1980. In that same speech, he said, “Human tragedy, human misery, the crushing of the human spirit … They do not need defining—they need action.”

Fires will be ready from 18:00 at Basement Theatre, Lake Umuzi Secunda and Salad, bread and cutlery will be provided.

Sonja Laxton, Alan Rob & Jetman will be present at the reunion especially if you would like to have a photo taken with them.

Entry fee : R30.00 p/p.

Come and enjoy the old running days combined with dancing and catching up with old friends. For those of you doing the 3in1, we’ll be waiting for you after the 10km! Hope to see you there!!!!
 
Enquiries – Ria van Schalkwyk
0827850806 or e-mail 3in1@secunda.co.za
 

Today, at the age of 24(which is still very young) I find myself in a place where time is measured by every single valuable second, minute and hour. My diary seems to run out of space very often and before you know it a new year feels sooner than a new month used to when I was 9.

Now more than ever I appreciate these new beginnings, although a day, week, month and year feel much shorter than it used to, I look forward to every new day, every new week with new challenges, every month with new goals and every new year with brand new beginnings and dreams.

May 2009 be the year in which you allow new beginnings in your life, may you invite your dreams to become realities and may you have faith in becoming what you were created to be!!

Be all you can be, trust God in everything and change the lives of people where ever you can!

Love is no longer a commitment and choice, but rather a mere emotions that can come and go as it fit into ones diary.

As ‘n young married woman, I learnt very quickly in the beginning of my marriage that this there are no place or time for games. A marriage is a day to day thing, it cant grow by itself, it cant exist without constant “feeding”, nurturing and realllllll hard work! I personally think that one of the most important things is accepting your life partner for who he/she is and learning more of your partner than trying to change them. So often we try to change the things that irritate us the most of our spouse, but at the end of the day, we must cherish and appreciate the differences. I now about a couple, they where exactly the same, the same personalities, same goals, same “favourites”, same thoughts, same reasoning, etc etc etc…Well, to make long story short, they where together for 6 months and then broke up, they didn’t fight a bit, they just got so bored of everything being the same that they decided to end the relationship “rather sooner than later”.

Here are one of the tools that helped me to understand my husband better. I can tell you, it totally changed the way that I understood my husband and the things that he do, and also…how I understood myself and they way I express love and need love:

Its a book called “The five love languages”, a New York times bestseller written by Gary Chapman. Basically the book is about the 5 different languages that we use to communicate love to one another and also the same “language” in which we want to receive love back. It explains in debth, why and how we react in our specific love language, how to identify your own and your spouse’s love language and how to speak your spouse’s language. Very interesting hey!

The 5 love languages that Gary Chapman explains in his book is:

• Quality time
• Words of Affirmation
• Gifts
• Acts of Service
• Physical Touch

While reading this book and identifying myself with the Quality Time “language” and my husband with the Physical Touch “language” i really started to understand why it seems that we “miss” each other sometimes and it also explained the emotion that we sometime experience of “not feeling loved” even though your spouse is not doing anything wrong.

This book definitely made a HUGE difference in my life and I highly recommend to anyone and everyone who hasn’t read it yet! AND, I just saw over the weekend that the book is also available on dvd, for the guys who really don’t want to read or doesn’t have the time.

If you would like to order a book or cd, you can contact Martie Liebenberg @ 084 589 8977, her prices are really good. You can also visit http://www.5lovelanguages.com

This might be the solution that you have been looking for! Good luck and enjoy every moment in your marriage!

He was indeed voted as the scariest/creepiets World Celeb on 27 November 2008 via an online Poll run by Marketing Research company E-poll. He won the “creep factor” with 76% and a mere 9% of voters finds poor Marlyn appealing.

The amazing thing is: that’s how brilliant Marlyn Manson makes his dollars, by being scary, crazy, freaky etc etc etc… Not only his looks, but his whole background, his music, his voice and his whole personality gives one a shiver up the spine!

Guess that he must be proud of his new title and bet he might even write a song about it!

Here are his fellow runner-up creep mates:

1 Marilyn Manson (76%, 9%)

2 Michael Jackson (67%, 14%)

3 OJ Simpson (59%, 3%)

4 Stephen King (51%, 61%)

5 Howard Stern (45%, 13%)

6 Andy Dick (44%, 17%)

7 Ozzy Osbourne (43%, 29%)

8 Criss Angel (43%, 45%)

9 Flavor Flav (41%, 17%)

10 Paul Reubens (41%, 22%)

11 Courtney Love (40%, 7%)

12 Carrot Top (39%, 17%)

13 Don Imus (38%, 12%)

14 Keith Richards (38%, 26%)

15 David Blaine (37%, 36%)

16 Woody Allen (35%, 24%)

17 Gene Simmons (33%, 30%)

18 Tom Green (31%, 30%)

19 Tommy Lee (29%, 25%)

20 M Night Shyamalan (27%, 53%)

These are not just mere climate changes, but changes that has great influence in our daily lives and in the towns and cities that we call home. South Africa has experienced shifting rain patterns causing drought in some areas and floods in other, and now we are starting to ask ourselves whether these changes are permanent or just the start of an unstable cycle…

The climate and rain pattern changes in South Africa is causing problems like negative consequences in food security, loss of land and pest outbreaks(to name just a few). In many areas people now have less access to fresh foods, forcing them to buy food which affects their financial and health situation. Outbreaks of pets such as the desert locust are induced by weather changes weakening food systems even more.

The facts are there, GREAT weather patterns and global warming IS taking place and these patterns are not in our human hands to control, improve or change.

Climate sciences prove that within a couple of years a temperature rise of up to 2ºC above pre-industrial levels will be difficult to avoid. Such a temperature increase will pose serious security risks that would increase if warming continues.

All these facts about the world we live in just cause one to wonder what will happen next, where will it end and what will happen to us?

- Strength training is a crucial factor in losing fat. Not only does it make your body and bones stronger, it also helps to raise your metabolism so you burn more calories all day long. Get a couple of light weights to exersize those muscles, not to build them but to burn the fat around them
- Cardio, like weight training, is crucial for losing fat as well as building endurance and making your heart strong for summertime activities. Schedule regular workouts and treat these workouts as appointments.
- Try to increase your fluid intake to only water, drink 6 - 7 glasses of water today to flush your system
- In order to get speed up your metabolism, try to eat 4-6 small healty meals per day in stead of 3 large meals.
- and last but not least, stay motivated and dont stop until you reached that goal weight to make this summer the best one ever!

Ria van Schalkwyk contacted secunda.co.za to assist her in getting this word out:

She is on a serious mission to get hold of all the “retired” athletes in the TEKS area. She is planning an unforgettable weekend reunion that will also include a Calcutta night. The funds raised on the Calcutta night will be donated to Davies Hof - Secunda.

So, once again, if you are a retired/inactive athlete, or if you have the details of one, please send your information through to Ria: 086 524 5234 / 3in1@secunda.co.za.

She is looking forward to hear from you!

The fact of the matter is that these “situations” happen every day all over the word and every second hundreds of people are thinking that exact thought, and the bystanders either think, “I wish that happened to me” or “thank goodness that didn’t happen to me”… but then the wheel takes its turn and before you know it, you are on the other side of those thoughts and either confronted on overwhelmed by raw reality

“I never thought this could happen to me”, could either be your worst fear or your biggest dream. You could have already experienced this or you might be waiting in anticipation for the surprise of “will it happen to me?” he truth behind all of this is: Yes something will happen to you, whether it will be something good or bad, it will happen. No, most of the time you cannot prepare for this, you cannot be ready and you cannot see it coming. But as a person living and breathing, you can know, that no situation will be beyond what you can handle, no situation will be without purpose or specific intent…

The best way to be ready for anything in life, is to not live by chance. Don’t live on either good or bad luck, take control and live your life, through good and bad, in such a way that you will never be forgotten. They way you handle these situations can either remove or add your name in the books of history