sentix Euro Break-up Index

Political signals are getting through

Tue, 02 Mar 2021 09:13:31 +0000

The situation in the Eurozone remains stable and calm. The entry into a European fiscal union, as Federal Finance Minister Scholz formulated it last week in the Bundestag on the occasion of the deliberations on the planned debt issuance by the EU Commission, probably also contributed to this.

Situation under control

Mon, 30 Nov 2020 12:27:24 +0000

While the euro countries continue to grapple with the Corona pandemic and believe that the pandemic situation can only be brought about under the control of a second "lockdown", the ECB is finding it easier to organise euro cohe-sion. The sentix Euro Break-up Index remains at a low level.

Leaves fall calmly from the tree

Tue, 29 Sep 2020 03:33:26 +0000

While the year 2020 will be anything but quiet and uneventful, this will not affect the stability of the euro zone. On the contrary, the corona crisis is currently masking important differences and even promoting one or two steps towards unification.

Things remain calm

Mon, 31 Aug 2020 07:23:12 +0000

At the beginning of September, the situation in the euro zone is calm. The sentix Euro Break-up Index remains at 5.7%. The sub-index for Italy is also unremarkable.

Peace in the Box!

Tue, 28 Jul 2020 04:00:00 +0000

When it gets too turbulent with playing children, parents like to bang on the table and end the tumult with a saying. In a similar vein, politicians in Europe have put an end to the light touch of uncertainty about the stability of the eu-rozone. The sentix Euro Break-up Index is falling to just 5.77%.

Relaxation is the order of the day

Mon, 29 Jun 2020 07:04:08 +0000

The excitement of some investors about the stability of the Eurozone, which was visible in EBI index values in recent months due to the Corona crisis and the ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court on ECB policy, has subsided again. The Euro Break-up Index fell significantly to 7.7% in June.

End of the haunting again?

Mon, 25 May 2020 09:57:33 +0000

The ruling of the German Federal Constitutional Court, according to which the ECB must make argumentative im-provements in the matter of its bond purchase programme and which some euro critics have already described as the "beginning of the end" of the euro, has not led to a further flare-up of euro worries among investors. The sentix Euro Break-up Index has fallen to 12.9%.

The crisis is creeping up again

Mon, 27 Apr 2020 07:12:58 +0000

While the corona crisis is affecting economic life around the globe and politicians are trying to contain the economic consequences, investors seem to be thinking ahead and are increasingly worried about the financing of rescue pack-ages. They have identified Italy and Spain as critical candidates whose precarious financial situation could become a risk to the stability of the euro zone.

Will the euro crisis return?

Tue, 31 Mar 2020 03:35:31 +0000

The corona crisis has worsened in recent weeks and, in addition to the health challenges, has also had a massive impact on the economy. Italy and Spain, two countries in southern Europe, have been particularly hard hit. There, the budget situation is likely to deteriorate sharply, which will increase the supply of government bonds. Investors are critical of this in view of the stability of the euro. The Euro Break-up Index rises to 13.4%!

Largely unaffected by the virus

Mon, 02 Mar 2020 07:07:26 +0000

The events surrounding the spread of the new corona virus are keeping people around the world and in Europe in suspense. The new outbreak in Italy poses major challenges for the economy and the government there. For investors, however, this is not yet the start of a new round of euro uncertainty.

No worries before the elections in Italy

Mon, 27 Jan 2020 16:06:04 +0000

The situation in the euro zone, measured by the sentix Euro Break-up Index, remains relaxed at the start of 2020. In contrast, the eagerly awaited regional elections in Italy left investors cold. Both the overall index and the sub-index for Italy fell slightly in the run-up to the elections.

The wind turns

Mon, 30 Dec 2019 07:21:26 +0000

After an all-time low in November, the Euro Break-up Index rose by 1.2 points at the end of the year. Besides Italy and France, the sub-indices of Malta and Estonia are also rising.

A warm welcome for Madame Lagarde

Mon, 25 Nov 2019 08:50:32 +0000

Even before the new President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, will chair her first Council meeting and explain the de-cisions taken at a press conference, investors will form first narratives. One such narrative is that Madame Lagarde seeks to stand shoulder to shoulder with politics. This strengthens the cohesion of the Eurozone from the investors' point of view.

A quiet farewell

Mon, 28 Oct 2019 07:14:35 +0000

The term of office of ECB President Mario Draghi was dominated by the struggle for the stability of the euro area. While the ECB was still confronted with serious doubts about stability in 2012, the situation has changed significantly to this day. The sentix Euro Break-up Index is close to its all-time low.

Draghi does it again

Mon, 30 Sep 2019 11:41:22 +0000

The ECB's decision to revive the bond purchase programme is probably one of the reasons why the euro break-up risk was further reduced in September. The overall index for the euro zone fell to 6.5%, its lowest level since April 2018. The sub-index for Italy also fell sharply to just 4.7%.

Latent residual risk

Tue, 27 Aug 2019 04:20:35 +0000

Despite the uncertainties about the development of the Euro zone economy and the approaching Brexit, investors are relatively unaffected in terms of Euro stability. The sentix Euro Break-up Index remains almost unchanged at 9.0 points. However, the index for the risk of contagion shows that a return of the Euro uncertainty is still not averted.

Risk of contagion continues to decrease

Mon, 29 Jul 2019 06:41:17 +0000

In Euroland, summer rest begins. Following the European elections and the filling of government positions in the EU, Italy has also recently brought some relief. This is reflected in the Euro Break-up Index, which at 8.9 points once again falls below the 10 percent threshold. The easing is even more visible in the index, which measures the risk of contagion. This one marks a new three-year low.

Italy annoys investors

Tue, 02 Jul 2019 04:00:00 +0000

Uncertainty about the stability of the euro zone is on the rise again. This is entirely due to Italy and the Italian gov-ernment's policy not to adhere to the EU Commission's budget targets. The Italian sub-index rose to 8.2% from 6.2%, the highest level since November 2018.

Investors do not worry about the Euro-Zone at the moment

Mon, 27 May 2019 09:01:12 +0000

The current survey on the sentix Euro Break-up Index showed relaxed investors before the EU election. The overall index for the euro zone fells further to 7.96%. This is the lowest value since April 2018. The sub-index for Italy is also following this trend and is also falling by 1 percentage point.

Relaxed mood test before the European elections

Mon, 29 Apr 2019 10:24:06 +0000

In the penultimate sentiment test before the European elections, the investors surveyed by sentix show that they are still relatively relaxed with regard to the stability of the Eurozone. The Euro break-up index for the euro area fell by slightly more than 1% to 8.98%. The sub-index for Italy also declined slightly.

Despite Brexit uncertainty little movement

Mon, 25 Mar 2019 15:22:45 +0000

Despite the turbulence surrounding the further development of Brexit and the continuing concerns about the state of the Euro zone economy, investors remain relatively relaxed with regard to euro cohesion. The Euro Break-up Index rose only marginally from 9.8 to 10.1 points.

Uncertainty over Italy remains

Tue, 26 Feb 2019 06:00:00 +0000

On the face of it, investors' concerns about the Euro-Zone's continued existence remain stable. The sentix Euro Break-up Index rose from 8.8% to 9.8%. But from the perspective of the investors surveyed by sentix, the probability of a break-up of the Euro zone is only at the average level of the last 18 months. In detail, the focus remains on Italy.

Quiet start to the year

Mon, 28 Jan 2019 12:33:13 +0000

The euro zone is experiencing a quiet start to the new year. Although investors are worried about the global and Eu-ro-Zone economic outlook, this is not having a negative impact on their perception of Euro-Zone stability. The Euro Break-up Index fell slightly from 9.9 to 8.8 points. Perhaps this is also due to the relative calm on the Italian govern-ment debt front, where the sub-index for Italy is also falling.

The shock eases

Mon, 26 Nov 2018 12:21:40 +0000

Although the new Italian government is refusing to revise its draft budget and thus risk a further escalation with the EU Commission, investors are more relaxed about Italy's exit risk from the euro. Obviously, investors are counting on Italy ultimately to be disciplined by the capital markets in good time.

Italian trouble

Mon, 29 Oct 2018 13:48:48 +0000

The dispute over Italy's draft budget has now rekindled investors' fears that the euro zone will break up. The sentix Euro Break-up Index rose strongly from 8.9% to 13.2%. This is the highest level since April 2017. The sub-index for Italy jumps to 11.25%.

Italy's planned new debt without consequences

Mon, 01 Oct 2018 12:18:54 +0000

The Italian government's decision to further increase debt has caused enormous volatility in the markets. What is special about this is that investors do not expect this to have any impact on the stability of the Euro-Zone. The Euro Break-up Index even falls in September - including the sub-index for Italy!

Italian worry lines are growing again

Mon, 27 Aug 2018 12:06:41 +0000

In recent weeks, investors' concerns about the stability of the euro zone have grown somewhat greater. The Italian government's attitude to the refugee crisis has contributed to this, as have increased concerns about an unregulated Brexit and Greece's "release" from the aid programme.

The shake is easing

Mon, 30 Jul 2018 11:34:21 +0000

After the Euro Break up Index indicated a new danger for the Euro-Zone in May, the situation calms down for the second month in a row. The overall index for the Euro zone fell significantly by 3.9 percentage points from 12.3% to 8.4%. Concerns about Italy are also declining.

No escalation

Mon, 25 Jun 2018 09:56:29 +0000

Despite the unrest in the European Union triggered by the new government in Italy and the issues in EU migration policy, there has been no further increase in the sentix Euro Break-up Index. On the contrary: the overall index even fell slightly from 13.0% to 12.3%. Private investors are much more nervous than institutional investors.

Italy back in the spotlight

Mon, 28 May 2018 10:46:53 +0000

The difficulties in forming a government in Italy and the prospect of a Eurocritical alliance between Lega Nord and the 5-star party have alarmed investors. Italy's likelihood of leaving the country rises sharply in May from 3.6% to 11.3%. For the eurozone as a whole, the sentix EBI Index rises to 13%, the highest level since April 2017. And there is another surprise!