Contenido de SimpleNoRisk

Gold Isn’t Broken

2026-03-27T06:20:17.727-07:00

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The Case for Real Assets

2026-02-08T07:31:00.000-08:00

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Eighteen Years…

2025-10-18T03:14:00.000-07:00

Rotation Theory: Gold vs. Stocks

2025-09-06T09:52:00.000-07:00

Markets rarely move in straight lines. Over long cycles, leadership rotates from one asset class to another. For the past decade, stocks—especially U.S. large-cap technology—have strongly outperformed gold. That dominance has left equities, and particularly the S&P 500, trading at expensive valuations by historical standards. Gold, on the other hand, has been largely ignored, yet it is

The AI Job Crisis

2025-07-08T23:05:00.000-07:00

Solutions Before DisruptionsArtificial intelligence (AI) is transforming our world, unlocking vast potential but threatening millions of livelihoods. The IMF’s 2024 analysis estimates that 40% of global jobs are at risk from AI, with up to 60% in advanced economies facing disruption. This isn’t just about factory workers—doctors, artists, and analysts face automation too. Past technological

The Shiller P/E Ratio

2025-04-04T07:57:00.000-07:00

A Simple Guide for EveryoneIf you’ve ever wondered how to tell if the stock market is overpriced or a bargain, the Shiller P/E ratio is a tool you’ll want to know about. It’s a popular way to measure the value of stocks, and it’s easier to understand than it sounds. In this article, we’ll break it down step-by-step: how it’s calculated, where you can find it, if it’s used beyond the S&P 500,

P&F Charts: Good, Bad, and Ugly

2025-02-18T03:54:00.000-08:00

Let’s talk about Point and Figure (PF or P&F) charts—a classic tool that’s been around forever but doesn’t always get the love it deserves. Unlike those flashy candlestick charts or time-bound bar charts, PF charts are all about price action. No time, no volume, just pure, unfiltered price movements. Sounds simple, right? Well, like any trading tool, it’s got its ups and downs. Let’s break it

Hedging Portfolios with Reverse ETFs

2024-12-07T02:29:00.000-08:00

When your outlook on the stock market turns bearish, selling your entire portfolio (or part of it) isn't the only option to reduce risk. A practical alternative is investing in a reverse or inverse ETF, which profits when the market declines. These ETFs are traded like regular ETFs through any broker and offer a straightforward way to hedge against market downturns.Using Reverse ETFs

Are They Really Fighting?

2024-10-13T11:25:00.000-07:00

Take a look at this chart. It's a visualization of the S&P 500 divided by the price of gold—basically, what happens when you price the stock market in gold instead of dollars. The result? A story of financial cycles that many miss if they only focus on stocks or only on gold. This chart doesn’t just show market moves; it shows when one asset reigns supreme over the other.In times when the

UGL?

2024-08-12T02:31:00.000-07:00

UGL, the ProShares Ultra Gold ETF, offers investors a unique way to gain exposure to the gold market by aiming to deliver twice the daily performance of the price of gold bullion. Grosso modo, this means that for every 1% movement in the price of gold, UGL is expected to move 2% in the same direction. UGL can be easily traded through most brokers, making it accessible for those looking to

Zimbabwe’s New Gamble

2024-06-18T05:00:00.000-07:00

Zimbabwe has a long and troubled history with its currency. After a period of hyperinflation in the early 2000s, the country abandoned its currency in 2009 and switched to a multi-currency system dominated by the US dollar. However, economic woes persisted, leading to the reintroduction of a local currency, the Zimbabwean dollar (ZWL), in 2019. Unfortunately, this attempt backfired, causing

Portfolio Review

2024-04-17T00:20:00.000-07:00

As you can see on the right, Portfolio Model, our portfolio is based on hedging risks. It includes stocks, gold and cash or short-term bonds.In general, the performance is good: last year it returned 7.2% and this current year around 3% so far, basically due to the good behavior of gold.Our 2 ETFs to track the stock market haven’t been the greatest, but they invest in solid business which pay

Business Opportunities in Kazakhstan

2024-02-17T08:03:00.000-08:00

Kazakhstan, the largest landlocked country in the world, has been steadily attracting attention from international investors due to its abundant natural resources, strategic location, and efforts to bolster its economic infrastructure. As the nation continues to enhance its global presence, with increased international flights and growing traction on the global stage, let's delve into the

Loss Aversion. Flip for It

2024-01-09T22:30:00.000-08:00

In the realm of wealth and extravagance, few tales rival the legendary stories of Kerry Packer, the media magnate and influential force in Australia. His journey, marked by a net worth of $6.5 billion and unparalleled broadcast rights, was one of opulence and audacity, leaving an indelible mark on the world of finance. This narrative isn't about triumphing over adversities like polio, dyslexia,

How Global Distress Drives Up Gold Prices

2023-10-18T22:29:00.008-07:00

Throughout history, gold has held a special place as a safe haven for investors during times of global distress. When political tensions escalate, conflicts erupt, or economic uncertainties loom, gold tends to shine as a valuable asset, leading to a surge in its price. This article explores the intricate relationship between global distress, especially during wars and other turbulent times, and

Shrinkflation

2023-08-28T01:13:00.006-07:00

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Navigating the changing World order

2023-07-08T23:55:00.007-07:00

Allow us to provide a brief overview of the projected changes in country rankings by 2050, based on various sources including PwC's "The World in 2050" report. According to these projections, China is expected to ascend to the position of the world's largest economy by 2050, surpassing the United States. This shift is driven by China's ongoing economic growth, population size, and increasing

Property, an alternative to university education

2023-06-21T00:50:00.006-07:00

In today's rapidly changing world, it is essential to explore alternative paths to traditional higher education. One such alternative that holds tremendous potential is redirecting the substantial funds typically allocated towards university tuition fees towards purchasing a small, well-located flat as an investment. This article aims to shed light on the advantages of this approach, highlighting

Top to bottom

2023-04-22T22:42:00.003-07:00

Check New Zealand, Canada, Australia…, but also India, Indonesia, Saudi, China.If we had to invest in their stock market, which countries should we choose?

USDJPY

2023-03-14T21:01:00.001-07:00

What you see here is a point-and-figure chart. I love these charts because they remove the noise and time other charts show so that you can focus on the break of support and resistance levels. Volume can be displayed as well.The one above shows the evolution of the USD/JPY from the 70s till today. Why are we writing about the Japanese yen? We have received many questions about this pair.

Gold 2023

2023-01-15T23:07:00.008-08:00

Gold has long been considered a safe haven asset, a reliable store of value in times of economic uncertainty. And with the global economy facing a number of headwinds in the coming year, many experts are bullish on the outlook for #gold prices in 2023.One of the main drivers of this bullish forecast is the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the global economy. The pandemic has caused

EURUSD forecast

2022-12-30T04:09:00.006-08:00

Remember this post? November 2021. Under parity happened this year, but as we always say, big movements have drawbacks. Our perception for the coming year is the rebound might not be finished, perhaps reaching around 1.1, but eventually the dollar is going to keep on strengthening and target 0.8.We will see if we are right…, meanwhile have a beautiful 2023.

Follow the hedge funds

2022-10-30T00:32:00.007-07:00

We, mortals, have some tools to track what hedge fund managers do. Have you ever wondered how Bill Ackman is investing? Would you love to track a mix of trendy stocks in the hedge fund community?Let us give you a couple o tips in case you are interested in tracking these famous managers:1. Web hedgefollow.com It is still beta, but it works beautifully. Here you can track managers, stocks…

Super dollar, till when?

2022-09-26T04:20:00.006-07:00

DXY is the common reference for USD against the rest of the currencies.Historically, we have seen a movement from around 165 in the 80’s to 70 (A to C) stopping at B. The natural target now would be B, 120. If you want to change USD to EUR, for instance, it makes sense to start changing there.Some colleagues think the target should be 150, however. Currencies are complicated and they can be

Inflación en España

2022-06-29T02:41:00.004-07:00

En las noticias de hoy vemos que el IPC en España se dispara al 10.2%. Nosotros internamente utilizamos el doble de la inflación oficial pues los gobiernos en general tienden a buscar medios para bajarla, generalmente cambiando cíclicamente la cesta de la compra que usan como referencia.Esta vez no vamos a ser tan conservadores y vamos a suponer una inflación anual del 15%.La causa de la subida